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Letzte Aktualisierung: 22.11.2024 16:55:39

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Aktuell

Navigating challenges in 2022

bet-at-home’s (BAH’s) interim results were consistent with the view in our May 2022 outlook note that 2022 would be a challenging year, as the group continues to navigate the regulatory landscape in its key markets. Full year guidance was lowered in June given legal and regulatory changes in Germany and Switzerland, and BAH exited the UK market in July following a licence review. Management continues to look forward to a potential new licence in the Netherlands, which would provide a new growth opportunity. Given the significant fall in BAH’s share price in the year to date, the group’s June 2022 net cash position (excluding client money) of €28.3m would represent 92% of its current market capitalisation.

Encouraging start to FY23

Borussia Dortmund’s Q123 results demonstrated the expected recovery in its more variable revenue streams as the club welcomed the return of more fans to the stadium versus the COVID-19-affected Q122. The return to normality was also reflected in a relatively busy transfer window in the summer with five player additions and three sales, involving a transfer fee. The team’s performance on the pitch is consistent with our existing financial estimates, therefore we make no changes to our forecasts. Our asset-backed sum-of the-parts valuation is unchanged at €10.50 per share.

German whistleblowing law now before year end

Progress of whistleblowing legislation through the German Bundestag has been slower than hoped, with transposition now likely in December, with a three-month implementation period. This delay means that management is now guiding to FY22e revenue growth of 25%, with EBITDA of €6.0m (was €6–10m). The EBITDA figure is in line with our forecast, despite the lower revenue (€3.2m below) reflecting a degree of flexibility on costs. The underlying boost from legislation coming into force across Europe remains a strong positive from FY23. EQS reported 9M22 revenue growth of 27% (10% organic), with 702 new SaaS customers signed up, including 555 for whistleblowing.

Swedish re-domicile going ahead

Media and Games Invest’s (MGI’s) recent EGM confirmed that the group can now proceed with its relocation to Sweden, set for January 2023, and the associated improvements to corporate governance, which should remove potential barriers to investment. Q322 results are scheduled for 15 November and, as with Q222, we would expect there to be a benefit from new publishers coming on board with an offset from a more testing economic backdrop. The inclusion of recent acquisition Dataseat from July will begin to step up the proportion of revenues and earnings generated from the demand-side. MGI’s valuation remains well below peers.

Continuing to execute on strategy

CLIQ Digital delivered strong revenue growth and record EBITDA in 9M22, as targeted marketing spend continued to drive the take up of its subscription-based multi-content streaming services. The results were boosted by particularly strong year-on-year growth in North America of 117%. We have raised our FY22 revenue and EBITDA forecasts by 10% and 15%, respectively, to reflect the strong growth delivered year to date, while noting that management has left its formal guidance unchanged. CLIQ.de, the new German multi-content portal, to be priced at €6.99 per month, will be launched on 15 December after extended stress testing. The shares continue to trade at a marked discount to the peer group.

Wind beneath the wings of the team

Borussia Dortmund is one of the most successful football clubs in Europe. It has a consistent record of success in its domestic league, which enables it to participate regularly in the financially lucrative European competitions. It is well positioned to benefit from structural growth drivers of growing global interest in football, which should enable it to continue growing its multiple revenue streams domestically and in international markets. After a relatively disappointing sporting performance and some unexpected disruption due to COVID-19 in FY22, management expects a strong financial recovery in FY23. Continued profit momentum with relatively good visibility on a number of revenue streams, unlike many other consumer-facing business, is attractive given Borussia Dortmund’s valuation multiples are low relative to its own history. It continues to look well supported by our asset-backed valuation of €10.50 per share.

NAV affected by flatexDEGIRO’s de-rating

Heliad Equity Partners (HEP) posted a 35% decrease in net asset value (NAV) per share during Q222, driven mostly by the 51% stock price decrease of flatexDEGIRO (FTK) (alongside the sell-off across listed online brokers), which now makes up roughly half of HEP’s portfolio. Meanwhile, revaluation of private holdings had a minor impact on HEP’s NAV, with only FINN and Klarna closing new funding rounds in Q222. We note that HEP’s management expects the weighted average revenue of its new investments since 2021 to grow 3.6x in 2022 vs the prior year. Management also highlighted that advanced talks on new funding rounds of some holdings may bring HEP’s NAV per share to c €10 (up c 20% from end-June 2022), while the current HEP share price is c 53% lower.

Building momentum in Q222

paragon’s Q222 results show an acceleration of revenue growth across the business and, while adjusted EBITDA was modestly lower, management has increased guidance. It now expects FY22 revenues of €170m while continuing to expect an EBITDA margin over 15%, with free cash flow (FCF) of €12m. While the equity value remains subordinate to financing bond redemption issues, we anticipate positive progress by the year end.

Fall in public multiples reduced portfolio value

Deutsche Beteiligungs (DBAG) reported a net loss of €78.3m in 9M22 (ending June 2022), which translated into an 11.7% NAV decline (in total return terms), less than the 28% fall in the SDAX during the period. The contraction of public multiples used to value its portfolio outweighed positive earnings contributions. The fund services segment generated €9.4m profit in 9M22 from managing €2.5bn assets, and DBAG confirmed its segment guidance of €14–16m profit in FY22. DBAG also continued its high acquisition activity with €127m spent on seven new investments so far in FY22 (of which four are in IT services and software) and 23 add-ons by portfolio companies (with a €12m equity support from DBAG).

Annualised ROE ex-Ukraine of 9.5% in H122

ProCredit Holding (PCB) continues to incur high loss allowances in Ukraine, booking €21.2m in Q222 versus €35.3m in Q122. However, ProCredit Bank Ukraine’s operations are mostly uninterrupted, with its CET-1 ratio 4pp above the regulatory requirement at end-June 2022. PCB’s operations outside Ukraine benefitted from solid loan book growth and a higher net interest margin (NIM), which coupled with a marginal cost of risk translated into an annualised return on equity (ROE) of 9.5% in H122 (close to the mid-term target of 10%). PCB’s shares trade at c 0.23x FY22e book value (P/BV).

Improving margins as VIS.X performs

YOC’s H122 results show the positive impact on margins from the growth in its proprietary VIS.X platform. On revenues up by 26% on H121, EBITDA margin has stepped up from 9.5% to 11.5%. FY22 guidance is unchanged, implying growth at a similar pace in H222 as achieved in H122, with an EBITDA margin of around 18% (all from mid-points of guided range). Unlike most of the global adtech sector, YOC’s shares have performed very well year to date as the strength of its offering, marrying mobile programmatic delivery with high-impact formats, has become better understood.

German whistleblowing law set for end Q3

The long and frustrating wait for the EU directive on whistleblowing to be passed into law in Germany should finally end in late September and we would expect EQS to have a very busy final quarter. The delays mean management is now guiding to the lower end of the cited revenue range of €65–70m and EBITDA range of €6–10m and we have adjusted our model to reflect this. We have left our FY23 estimates for revenue and EBITDA unchanged for now and are publishing our first thoughts on FY24. H122 revenues were up 33% (11% organic) but the EBITDA margin remains suppressed by the additional costs being carried.

FY22 guidance reiterated after strong Q222

JDC Group (JDC) reported strong Q222 numbers and reiterated its FY22 guidance for revenues of €165.0–175.0m (FY21: €146.8m) and EBITDA of more than €11m in FY22 (FY21: €8.3m). We have left our estimates unchanged. In our recent update, we concluded that, based on 2023e consensus EV/sales, EV/EBITDA multiples and our DCF calculation of €37.90 per share, JDC’s valuation does not seem demanding.

Refocused automotive growth strategy

paragon has spent much of the pandemic refocusing on its core automotive activities and addressing the issue of bond refinancing. Both are now largely complete and management’s revised growth strategy targets ambitious financial targets over the next few years, with a positive start already made. As much of its product portfolio is fuel type agnostic, paragon is well positioned to address the evolving connectivity, digitalisation and electrification requirements of electric vehicles (EVs). We believe the strong growth outlook merits a higher FY23e P/E rating than the current 3.6x, which we feel reflects concern over the refinancing of the outstanding CHF21m bond due in April 2023.

Management update – on track

SynBiotic has extended its lead in the European hemp and cannabis sector and is continuing to build a cannabis ‘ecosystem’, encompassing cultivation, production and trade. Based on preliminary figures, SynBiotic has delivered pro forma sales of €15m for FY21, in line with management guidance. The company has now added a target of becoming profitable as of FY23. Full consolidated financial statements will be presented at the AGM, planned in Q4.

Making CLIQ a household name

CLIQ Digital’s H122 results were strong across all KPIs, illustrating that the group is on track to reach management’s FY22 guidance, which saw significant uplifts at its strategy update in June. Our revenue and profit forecasts remain materially unchanged. However, we have updated our balance sheet expectations to reflect CLIQ’s committed investment in its new package offering, CLIQ.de. The new upscaled multi-content platform is designed to be simple but affordable, encouraging widespread adoption with the aim of making CLIQ a ‘household name’ in Germany.

Adding more client groups

Bancassurance, advisory and service platform JDC Group announced a joint venture with Bain Capital and its main shareholder Great-West Lifeco (GWL) to acquire insurance brokers/agencies in Germany and Austria. This will add a fresh source of revenue growth and extra revenue potential on top of the expected boost to platform revenues from 2023 due to previous large client wins. In this note, we introduce our estimates for 2022–24. Based on 2023e consensus EV/sales and EV/EBITDA multiples and our DCF valuation of €37.90 per share, JDC’s valuation does not seem demanding.

Focus on ad software platform

Media and Games Invest (MGI) is grasping an opportunity to leverage its extensive first-party data resource, generated through its games content, to build out a full stack advertising software platform that can offer good returns to both advertisers and publishers. Changes to the advertising ecosystem to protect user privacy are prompting a strategic shift to first-party data, with added benefits of improved targeting and transparency. MGI has already assembled a strong offering on the supply side and is now expanding its offering on the demand side, through organic growth and targeted M&A, which should generate further scale and efficiency.

A high-tech growth investor from Germany

Heliad Equity Partners (HEP) seeks to offer investors exposure to early-stage, private tech companies, with a particular focus on growth investments, through a listed evergreen structure. It has actively expanded its private portfolio since the change of its investment strategy in mid-2021 and held stakes in 16 unlisted and four listed companies at end-March 2022 offering solutions across sectors such as fintech, green energy, direct-to-customer (D2C), supply chain management, crypto/blockchain and mobility.

Long-term story remains intact despite the war

ProCredit Holding (PCB) continued to report good progress in realising its scaling potential with FY21 ROE of 9.7% versus 6.9% in FY19. Despite the risk of a global recession, we believe that monetary tightening (supporting PCB’s net interest margin) and a relatively favourable, regional mid-term outlook should translate into healthy earnings growth in its South-Eastern (SEE) segment (c 70% of PCB’s loan book at end-March 2022). Having said that, the war in Ukraine will weigh on PCB’s local bank (12.9% of PCB’s loan book as at May 2022) and could lead to further provisions in Ukraine in FY22. Nevertheless, we believe the market has overreacted, with PCB’s shares now trading at c 0.24x our expected FY22 tangible book value.

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