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Opening Statement by Robert Kelly, Director of Economics & Statistics, at the Oireachtas Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Chair and committee members, thank you for the opportunity to address you today. Martin O'Brien, head of our Irish Economic Analysis Division, joins me.Our Quarterly Bulletin, published today, paints a picture of a resilient domestic economy poised to grow in the region of 2.5 per cent annually through 2026[i]. The labour market remains robust, and inflation has fallen below 2 per cent for the last six months. However, revisions to national accounts data for 2023 and evidence on wage developments highlight the risk of persistent domestically generated inflation. Service inflation, in particular, has been stubbornly high, hovering between 4 and 5 per cent for over a year.These factors necessitate a measured and targeted approach to budgetary policy that balances the need for economic stability with the imperative to address structural deficiencies.The Summer Economic Statement (SES) outlines a fiscal package of €8.3 billion for Budget 2025. Nearly half of this increase directly supports maintaining the current level of services, doubling the allocation from Budget 2024. Over one-third of the package targets additional current spending and tax reductions, while the remaining 17 per cent is reserved for capital spending under the National Development Plan.This represents a net spending increase of 7 per cent in 2025. This procyclical budget stance will add further to domestic price pressures. As outlined in the last Bulletin, spending increases of this magnitude above the 5 per cent rule since 2022 has added half a percentage point to inflation annually[ii].I want to draw out the vital interaction between fiscal and monetary policy.Last week’s Governing Council meeting saw the second 25 basis point cut in interest rates. This follows a sharp increase of 450 basis points in response to rising inflation from the strength of the pandemic recovery and, more prominently, Russia's invasion of Ukraine.The ECB Governing Council has communicated that the future path for interest rates will be data-dependent and calibrated to economic developments across the euro area as a whole. Fiscal policy is the key instrument available to national governments to manage the economy. However, a prolonged period of expansionary fiscal policy during an upturn in the economic cycle risks generating persistently higher domestic inflation, allowing wage growth to outstrip productivity gains and erode competitiveness.Ireland’s fiscal stance this year stands in contrast to the contractionary stance of the aggregate euro area. Addressing the imbalance in the housing marketLet me turn to the pressing issue of addressing housing market imbalances. Housing supply has not kept pace with the rapid growth in job creation - with a ratio of one home for every four new workers and now acting as a constraint on job growth.Housing demand pressures are not unique to Ireland, and we have seen a rapid increase in delivery over the last couple of years. Demographic pressures and pent-up demand will likely require an upward shift to more than 50,000 new builds annually[iii].An increase of this magnitude fundamentally hinges upon making construction both financially and practically viable. Such viability is linked to three interconnected pillars: Preparation of zoned and serviced land, an efficient planning processes, and construction productivity.Preparing serviced land ensures that land becomes available and is equipped with essential infrastructure. Without the requisite services, land cannot be developed efficiently, stifling the ability to meet housing demand.Protracted approval times and complexity in the planning process can significantly delay housing developments and exacerbate costs.A range of indicators point to labour capacity constraints in the construction sector. Policy can support productivity, reducing the amount of labour needed per unit by promoting and incentivising more expanded use of modern construction methods.Addressing the viability of housing requires a multifaceted approach encompassing fiscal and non-fiscal policy interventions, with some measures exerting minimal direct pressure on public finances. Nevertheless, given the social and economic implications of the housing challenge, there is a justification for increased capital expenditure, particularly in infrastructure development and serviced land provision.Such spending, however, must be carefully calibrated to ensure it does not jeopardise fiscal sustainability or contribute to overheating the economy. The final component is financing - an upward shift to more than 50,000 units will require an estimated additional seven billion euro.Additional financing alone cannot rectify housing imbalances; trying to do so would exacerbate overheating risks. Addressing viability concerns and lowering risk will strengthen the construction sector's ability to attract equity capital, which will, in turn, improve its capacity to raise debt and maintain an essential diversity of financing. The State will continue to have an important role to play by providing social, affordable and cost-rental housing. However, the State’s role has to co-exist alongside a sustainable, privately financed and developed market to ensure a diversity of housing and tenure types. International investment will remain an important source of financing, as will the domestic banking system’s balance sheet capacity for lending that can play a role in scaling up housing delivery.Sustainability of public financesWhile addressing housing demands is warranted, additional capital spending must be funded in a manner that does not increase vulnerability in public finances.The SES captures the known risks on both the revenue and expenditure sides well.Corporation tax receipts continue to outperform expectations, yet these revenues remain highly concentrated across a small number of firms. Almost half of the funds collected are delinked from domestic economic activity.This concentration poses a significant 'sudden stop' risk, immediately turning the current headline surplus into a deficit.On the expenditure side, challenges loom large. An ageing population will place increasing pressure on public services, particularly in healthcare and pensions. At the same time Ireland's commitment to reducing emissions will require substantial investment. Sustainability is also at the heart of the European Union's revised economic governance framework[iv].However, the effectiveness of EU rules is limited for Ireland. GDP is used as the measure of economic activity, which is distorted by the global activities of large multinationals with a presence in Ireland. In addition, the rules do not account for excess or windfall corporation tax revenues.Therefore, the Government's Net Spending Rule is crucial in ensuring macroeconomic and fiscal sustainability[v].The Net Spending Rule is not mentioned in this year's SES, and the projections show noncompliance in 2025 and 2026. The rule is designed to prevent overheating during periods of strong demand and high inflation while enabling supportive fiscal policy during downturns. Adherence to the rule should facilitate difficult decisions necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability and avoid the boom-bust cycles that have damaged the Irish economy in the past.ConclusionIn conclusion, our economy is set for moderate but steady growth but is operating at capacity across several sectors. The health of our public finances presents a unique opportunity to address the infrastructural and housing deficits built up over the past decade.By maintaining an overall budgetary stance that is prudent and prioritising capital investment, we can safeguard Ireland's economic future and deliver long-term prosperity for all.I thank the committee members for their attention, and we are happy to answer the members' questions. [i] See Quarterly Bulletin 3, 2024 [ii] See Quarterly Bulletin Signed Article Fiscal Priorities for the Short and Medium Term[iii] See QB Housing Article[iv] See European Commission Revised Economic Governance Framework[v] The Government Net Spending Rule was announced in the 2021 Summer Economic Statement. This rule, designed to stabilise expenditure based on trend growth (currently estimated at 3%) and the price stability target for inflation (2%), supports counter-cyclical fiscal policy.
Opening Statement by Robert Kelly, Director of Economics & Statistics, at the Oireachtas Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Chair and committee members, thank you for the opportunity to address you today. Martin O'Brien, head of our Irish Economic Analysis Division, joins me.Our Quarterly Bulletin, published today, paints a picture of a resilient domestic economy poised to grow in the region of 2.5 per cent annually through 2026[i]. The labour market remains robust, and inflation has fallen below 2 per cent for the last six months. However, revisions to national accounts data for 2023 and evidence on wage developments highlight the risk of persistent domestically generated inflation. Service inflation, in particular, has been stubbornly high, hovering between 4 and 5 per cent for over a year.These factors necessitate a measured and targeted approach to budgetary policy that balances the need for economic stability with the imperative to address structural deficiencies.The Summer Economic Statement (SES) outlines a fiscal package of €8.3 billion for Budget 2025. Nearly half of this increase directly supports maintaining the current level of services, doubling the allocation from Budget 2024. Over one-third of the package targets additional current spending and tax reductions, while the remaining 17 per cent is reserved for capital spending under the National Development Plan.This represents a net spending increase of 7 per cent in 2025. This procyclical budget stance will add further to domestic price pressures. As outlined in the last Bulletin, spending increases of this magnitude above the 5 per cent rule since 2022 has added half a percentage point to inflation annually[ii].I want to draw out the vital interaction between fiscal and monetary policy.Last week’s Governing Council meeting saw the second 25 basis point cut in interest rates. This follows a sharp increase of 450 basis points in response to rising inflation from the strength of the pandemic recovery and, more prominently, Russia's invasion of Ukraine.The ECB Governing Council has communicated that the future path for interest rates will be data-dependent and calibrated to economic developments across the euro area as a whole. Fiscal policy is the key instrument available to national governments to manage the economy. However, a prolonged period of expansionary fiscal policy during an upturn in the economic cycle risks generating persistently higher domestic inflation, allowing wage growth to outstrip productivity gains and erode competitiveness.Ireland’s fiscal stance this year stands in contrast to the contractionary stance of the aggregate euro area. Addressing the imbalance in the housing marketLet me turn to the pressing issue of addressing housing market imbalances. Housing supply has not kept pace with the rapid growth in job creation - with a ratio of one home for every four new workers and now acting as a constraint on job growth.Housing demand pressures are not unique to Ireland, and we have seen a rapid increase in delivery over the last couple of years. Demographic pressures and pent-up demand will likely require an upward shift to more than 50,000 new builds annually[iii].An increase of this magnitude fundamentally hinges upon making construction both financially and practically viable. Such viability is linked to three interconnected pillars: Preparation of zoned and serviced land, an efficient planning processes, and construction productivity.Preparing serviced land ensures that land becomes available and is equipped with essential infrastructure. Without the requisite services, land cannot be developed efficiently, stifling the ability to meet housing demand.Protracted approval times and complexity in the planning process can significantly delay housing developments and exacerbate costs.A range of indicators point to labour capacity constraints in the construction sector. Policy can support productivity, reducing the amount of labour needed per unit by promoting and incentivising more expanded use of modern construction methods.Addressing the viability of housing requires a multifaceted approach encompassing fiscal and non-fiscal policy interventions, with some measures exerting minimal direct pressure on public finances. Nevertheless, given the social and economic implications of the housing challenge, there is a justification for increased capital expenditure, particularly in infrastructure development and serviced land provision.Such spending, however, must be carefully calibrated to ensure it does not jeopardise fiscal sustainability or contribute to overheating the economy. The final component is financing - an upward shift to more than 50,000 units will require an estimated additional seven billion euro.Additional financing alone cannot rectify housing imbalances; trying to do so would exacerbate overheating risks. Addressing viability concerns and lowering risk will strengthen the construction sector's ability to attract equity capital, which will, in turn, improve its capacity to raise debt and maintain an essential diversity of financing. The State will continue to have an important role to play by providing social, affordable and cost-rental housing. However, the State’s role has to co-exist alongside a sustainable, privately financed and developed market to ensure a diversity of housing and tenure types. International investment will remain an important source of financing, as will the domestic banking system’s balance sheet capacity for lending that can play a role in scaling up housing delivery.Sustainability of public financesWhile addressing housing demands is warranted, additional capital spending must be funded in a manner that does not increase vulnerability in public finances.The SES captures the known risks on both the revenue and expenditure sides well.Corporation tax receipts continue to outperform expectations, yet these revenues remain highly concentrated across a small number of firms. Almost half of the funds collected are delinked from domestic economic activity.This concentration poses a significant 'sudden stop' risk, immediately turning the current headline surplus into a deficit.On the expenditure side, challenges loom large. An ageing population will place increasing pressure on public services, particularly in healthcare and pensions. At the same time Ireland's commitment to reducing emissions will require substantial investment. Sustainability is also at the heart of the European Union's revised economic governance framework[iv].However, the effectiveness of EU rules is limited for Ireland. GDP is used as the measure of economic activity, which is distorted by the global activities of large multinationals with a presence in Ireland. In addition, the rules do not account for excess or windfall corporation tax revenues.Therefore, the Government's Net Spending Rule is crucial in ensuring macroeconomic and fiscal sustainability[v].The Net Spending Rule is not mentioned in this year's SES, and the projections show noncompliance in 2025 and 2026. The rule is designed to prevent overheating during periods of strong demand and high inflation while enabling supportive fiscal policy during downturns. Adherence to the rule should facilitate difficult decisions necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability and avoid the boom-bust cycles that have damaged the Irish economy in the past.ConclusionIn conclusion, our economy is set for moderate but steady growth but is operating at capacity across several sectors. The health of our public finances presents a unique opportunity to address the infrastructural and housing deficits built up over the past decade.By maintaining an overall budgetary stance that is prudent and prioritising capital investment, we can safeguard Ireland's economic future and deliver long-term prosperity for all.I thank the committee members for their attention, and we are happy to answer the members' questions. [i] See Quarterly Bulletin 3, 2024 [ii] See Quarterly Bulletin Signed Article Fiscal Priorities for the Short and Medium Term[iii] See QB Housing Article[iv] See European Commission Revised Economic Governance Framework[v] The Government Net Spending Rule was announced in the 2021 Summer Economic Statement. This rule, designed to stabilise expenditure based on trend growth (currently estimated at 3%) and the price stability target for inflation (2%), supports counter-cyclical fiscal policy.
Quarterly Bulletin 2024:3 – Around 52,000 new homes could reasonably be needed per year
Higher estimates from Central Bank staff are due to pent-up demand for housing and an increased housing need for our growing population over the coming decadesPlanning issues, availability of supporting infrastructure and serviced land, and productivity of the construction sector must be addressed, enabling greater access to finance so as the housing sector can produce the number of units required.Elsewhere, the Quarterly Bulletin forecast paints a picture of a resilient domestic economy poised to grow between 2 and 3 per cent annually out to 2026.Today as part of the Quarterly Bulletin, the Central Bank of Ireland published an article titled “Economic policy issues in the Irish housing market”. Commenting on the article Director of Economic and Statistics Robert Kelly said: “The Irish housing market has been subject to a decade of under-supply, during which house price and rental growth have outstripped income growth and stretched affordability. While these challenges are part of a pattern we are seeing globally, housing output as a share of national income in Ireland has been significantly below the euro area average for quite some time. Housing supply is unable to meet our country’s needs which is limiting the sustainable growth of living standards.”The underlying challenge is the housing market’s capability to produce enough viable housing projects at the scale required. It has to be viable to produce housing units at costs that are within reach of Irish household incomes. Sustainably bridging the gap between affordability of housing and viability for the construction sector to deliver sufficient housing is a priority for public policy, with increasing economic implications both now and into the future if this is not achieved.Government policy has already responded to this challenge, with the State increasing spending on the housing market from €1bn to €6.5bn per year over the past decade. Irish government housing expenditure is now the second highest proportionately in the EU, and close to its 2007 peak. However, increasing housing output cannot solely rely on the State. The Central Bank of Ireland’s analysis points to the need to consider how the State uses its financial resources, and wider policy tools, to enable higher housing supply. Housing supply has increased, and current levels of housing completions are now broadly in-line with previous estimates of underlying demand. However, up to 2021 completion levels remained below the underlying demographic demand, which has meant that pent-up demand now exists.The pent-up demand exists alongside an increased housing need from higher population estimates over the coming decades. Taking all these factors into account, updated estimates by Central Bank staff indicate that around 52,000 new homes could be needed per year out to the middle of the century, or a 20,000 unit increase over 2023 supply. The report discusses three overlapping dimensions that will have a bearing on construction viability and the ability of the market to deliver additional housing supply of circa 20,000 units per annum:Planning, building regulation and serviced land: A complex and protracted planning environment adds to the costs of delivering housing and enabling infrastructure in areas where demand is highest.Capacity and productivity of the construction sector: The financial crisis has left long-lasting scars on the construction sector. Its productivity is low, both by historical and international standards. This relates to an over-reliance on small enterprises, unable to benefit from economies of scale and suffering from over a decade of relative under-investment in machinery, equipment and widespread adoption of modern technologies. This leads to comparatively lower output per worker and will pose challenges in scaling towards higher delivery requirements. It also means that the sector is less well placed to absorb higher costs of labour and the more globally determined raw material inputs needed to produce housing.Access to development finance: Funding delivery of circa 52,000 units per annum would require sustainably accessing debt and equity financing of sufficient scale. The Central Bank’s analysis suggests that an estimated €6.5bn to €7bn additional development finance over and above existing levels would be required to fund the additional 20,000 units per annum. This additional finance need comprises debt and equity funding, across State, banks, and non-bank financial intermediaries. Our analysis suggests that while key financing sources may have the potential capacity to extend the required financing, the capacity of the construction sector to access this financing in light of the two dimensions outlined above may be more challenging. This is particularly relevant in the context of the ability of the construction sector to attract external equity capital.The article highlights the importance of policy interventions that aim to close the gap between affordability and viability, through reducing of the cost of delivering housing instead of enabling higher prices, which are ultimately borne by new households. Addressing the viability of housing delivery should focus more on enabling measures that will -Address the challenges and provide policy certainty in the planning and building regulation process;Focus public capital investment on infrastructure and funding the direct provision of more serviced land in areas of high demand;Incentivising greater scale and productivity in the construction sector through initiatives that lead to enhanced adoption of modern construction methods, standardisation of designs, and other innovations within the procurement process;Use the State balance sheet to incentivise private investment, in particular equity investment, into the construction sector.Robert Kelly continued “Our analysis points to the clear need for policy change to address challenges in forward planning and the sector’s infrastructure, which in turn will also enable more sustainable access to development finance. We have calculated the significant economic costs of policy inaction prolonging the imbalance between housing demand and supply. These will result in a higher cost of living, and in turn, a higher cost of doing business in Ireland, ultimately damaging our global competitiveness and the sustainable growth in living standards for the people of Ireland in the medium-term. However, building an additional 20,000 units of housing also comes with risks to the economy, and public finances need to be carefully managed. It presents trade-offs which policymakers need to actively consider as the costs and risks of poorly managing a rise in housing output are similar to those posed by inaction.”The third Quarterly Bulletin of 2024 finds that the Irish economy continues to grow at a strong pace supported by the buoyancy of domestic economic activity. Against a backdrop of global growth and inflation rates easing broadly in line with expectations, the Irish economy continues to perform well. Unemployment is expected to remain low, supporting a rise in wage rates and broader household incomes. Headline inflation has eased considerably to below 2 per cent, and is expected to remain between 1.5 and 2 per cent out to 2026. The resulting positive momentum for household’s purchasing power underpins the expected rise in consumer spending and investment envisaged. However, challenges to maintaining such performance are becoming more evident. Stronger than expected growth, over and above the economy’s potential rate, has brought into sharp focus domestic supply and infrastructure constraints. These, in turn, present a situation where globally-determined inflation in Ireland is declining substantially, while more domestically-driven inflation, as reflected in services price inflation, remains significant at above 4 per cent.While the central outlook for economic growth and employment is favourable, risks are tilted to the downside. The economy faces a somewhat complex array of risks that could alter the outlook compared to the central forecasts. Further fiscal stimulus above that assumed in the central forecasts would result in the economy growing faster than projected in the short term. With the labour market already at full employment, this would come at the cost of higher and more persistent inflation with a negative effect on Ireland’s relative competitiveness. On the external side, Ireland’s export base remains highly concentrated among a small number of large multinational enterprises (MNEs). Pharma exports have rebounded in 2024 following a decline in 2023 but there is uncertainty about the prospects for ICT manufacturing. A downturn in that sector or in wider MNE-dominated activity (for example, if global economic growth weakens) would reduce net exports, domestic investment, tax revenue and economic activity relative to the central forecasts.Risks to the headline inflation outlook are judged to be broadly balanced. Risks to the near-term inflation outlook are mostly to the downside and relate to the possibility of a more substantial slow-down in the global economy, dampening externally-driven inflation. In contrast, risks to the outlook over the whole horizon are mostly to the upside, driven by the possibility of a more persistent imbalance between domestic demand and supply. An escalation of geopolitical tensions or renewed stress in global supply conditions could put upward pressure on prices for energy and other key commodities such as food, relative to current assumptions. However, a sharper than expected global economic slowdown may have a negative impact on external demand for Irish goods and services as well as damping global commodity prices, feeding into weaker than expected global and domestic price dynamics. Domestically, with the economy at full employment, containing price and wage inflation will be conditional on expected productivity growth being realised and an excessively expansionary fiscal stance being avoided. Delays in addressing existing capacity constraints in housing and in other infrastructure would risk raising price and wage inflation above central projections.Addressing structural vulnerabilities in the economy and the public finances, maintaining an appropriate fiscal stance and sustainably delivering on the necessary rise in public and private capital investment in the coming years requires considered action and is necessary to safeguard Ireland's economic future and deliver long-term prosperity for all.
The Journey to a Digital Euro- Remarks by Anne Marie McKiernan, Director of Financial Operations at the IBEC Digital Euro Roundtable Event
Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here today to talk about the digital euro. My sincere thanks to IBEC and particularly the Financial Services Ireland (FSI) for organising and hosting this event (Elena, David and team). I am delighted to be joined by Eric Tak, Head of Digital Euro Product Proposition at the ECB, presenting here today – welcome Eric.We are delighted to update you on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) and Central Bank of Ireland work to explore the possible introduction of a eurozone Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), the ‘digital euro’.New technologies in retail payments have fuelled changes in our payment habits, especially a decline in use of cash. In response, central banks have re-stated our commitment to retaining cash as the universally accepted means of payment, and the majority of central banks are investigating the role of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in strengthening the role of public money. CBDCs are proactive measures – under consideration all around the world - to ensure that our currency remains fit for the digital age. The ECB is at the forefront of detailed considerations and preparations for CBDC (both retail – Digital euro – and wholesale).Digital euro will be a complement to cash and another universal means of payment in the euro area, with legal tender status, as cash-like as possible for a digital payment method. It will add resilience and choice, value and service for consumers, merchants and businesses in the payments system. The digital euro design features enhanced privacy; leading edge anti-fraud and cyber resilience, and a better user experience which is faster, easier and cheaper. Therefore, the journey towards a digital euro could help Ireland to catch up with peers in the retail payment space – which I’ll come back to later.To be a success, digital euro must be trusted and add value to users. The Eurosystem vision for Digital euro - embodied in its design - is to ensure it meets the highest possible standards of privacy and security, fraud protection and inclusivity. It will be free to individuals for basic payment services – the Eurosystem will bear the costs of production; it will offer an ‘offline function’ for digital proximity payments, even without an internet/ network connection. It will promote financial inclusion, by giving a digital means of payments even without a bank account, and users will be able to open a digital euro account with their current payment service provider (e.g. bank or credit union) and seamlessly move to another provider should they wish.Equally, merchants must see the value proposition. At the moment, there is no pan-European payment solution, which adds frictions and costs to trade for merchants/ businesses. Digital euro will offer a universal accepted solution for the euro area - so merchants will have the ability to receive payments instantly, aiding cash flowWe know that merchants often experience opaque fee structures in existing payment processes. With the digital euro, safeguards [in the form of a merchant service charge cap] are envisioned, to prevent unreasonable charges. Digital euro should, therefore, put merchants in a stronger position on fees and thus reduce their own costs.A key advantage of a Digital form of central bank money is the ability to spur further innovation in payment services – for businesses and individuals. CBDCs are characterised by public-private cooperation. The Eurosystem will provide this new form of money and operate the payments and settlement systems for it – and bear those costs. The proposed design is for the Eurosystem to provide a digital euro app, to payment service providers (PSPs). These PSPs, which are Supervised intermediaries, will distribute the digital euro – either ‘as is’, or by integrating it into their existing apps and wallets, offering potential for enhanced services and opportunities for customers. Under the Eurosystem proposal, these providers will be compensated for basic services, as is the case for other electronic payment instruments today. This combined “public-private approach” is to harness greater benefits of resilience and innovation in payments.Alongside the opportunities, it is important to acknowledge the challenges – and more importantly how we plan to deal with them. One of the technical challenges of digital euro is providing offline functionality, where Digital euro could be used even without internet connectivity. There are also financial system and regulatory implications from Digital euro (including ensuring that excess volume of deposits don’t flow from credit institutions to Digital euro and cause undue liquidity issues) – and these are the subject of intensive analysis and consultation, including on having a ‘holding limit’ on digital euro.The European Central Bank, in conjunction with the Eurosystem National Central Banks, is committed to transparency and dialogue throughout the preparation phase, and this involves engaging with citizens, businesses, financial institutions, policymakers and legislators - to shape a digital euro that reflects our societies’ collective values and needs. A major aspect of the ECB – and NCB - engagement with the financial sector on finalising the D€ Scheme Rulebook.Turning to Ireland – as elsewhere, the payments landscape has evolved significantly over the past decade. However, Ireland lags behind our EU peers on payments – particularly on choice and speed.We no longer have a domestic (Irish) card payment scheme (Laser scheme ceased to operate in 2014) and we rely heavily on international card schemes to make card payments. While cash is, and will of course remain, an option to pay, the popularity of digital payment instruments is high and rising (digital payments have doubled since 2015, while cash withdrawals from ATMs have fallen by 40%).While payments have evolved in Ireland, frictions in the payment chain are still evident (such as lack of Instant Payments and higher than average processing fees). A digital euro would spur reach and acceptability, and go a long way toward reducing some of these frictions for everyday retail payments, while enhancing user experience.The goal of the Central Bank is to harness the benefits of innovations, while preserving monetary and financial stability, and ensuring that the financial system continues to operate in the best interests of consumers and the wider economy.At the Central Bank of Ireland, we’ve been involved in the digital euro work programme as a member of the Eurosystem since the start in 2021, the ‘investigation phase’, and have more recently accelerated our work – including analysis of financial system implications, legislative development, readiness of payments service providers, costs, innovation opportunities etc. We analysed and backed the Eurosystem design principles - Eric will provide further details on these.The Eurosystem is almost 1 year into the 2-year Preparation Phase. I’d highlight the main objectives in the current phase as:To lay the foundations for the potential issuance of a digital euro AND be ready should a decision be taken to launch in the future. The key activities for this phase (as governed by the ECBs’ plan) include finalising the digital euro rulebook[1], defining rules and processes for the digital euro scheme and establishing framework agreements with potential service providers to develop, operate and maintain the digital euro platform and infrastructure. Further testing and experimenting to develop a digital euro is planned.The digital euro legislative proposal. The digital euro will be covered by a legislative framework, a draft of which was proposed by the European Commission in June 2023 and which is currently being debated at the EU Council and European Parliament. The legislation will grant legal tender status for the digital euro (on par with cash), requiring merchants to accept it as legal tender. [As legislative deliberations evolve, the Central Bank continues to work closely with our colleagues in the Department of Finance and the Department of Foreign Affairs to ensure national specificities and challenges can be appropriately dealt with as part of legislative debate.While there is not yet a definitive timeline for the conclusion of these deliberations, the decision to issue a digital euro will be considered by the ECB Governing Council only after the European Parliament and EU Council have adopted the digital euro legal act.On the domestic policy front, the Department of Finance is leading the development of a National Payments Strategy (NPS) for 2024-2030. This will set out the priorities that will help shape the future payment landscape in Ireland. As the Central Bank indicated in our submission to the consultation on the NPS, Ireland’s retail payments landscape lags behind other parts of Europe in some areas, and addressing these gaps is a priority. This will include work to understand how a digital euro interacts with the broader payments landscape in Ireland.Should a decision to issue a digital euro be taken, the Central Bank of Ireland, Department of Finance, other state Departments, the financial industry and merchants will work together, to ensure its successful launch.To develop and potentially launch a digital form of public money, we are broadening our engagement with the many stakeholders involved, to gather valuable insights and address challenges. Events, such as this with IBEC and all the businesses represented here, are invaluable to gather perspectives on the strategic opportunities and benefits presented by Digital euro for different end users. Over the next twelve months, we will expand our structured engagements with industry. Our goal is to have a high level assessment of the preparedness of the Irish payments sector for its potential introduction, if a decision is made to launch.To conclude. We see significant value and opportunity in the Digital euro and its potential contribution to the Irish payments landscape. We are working through the many exciting as well as challenging issues that it raises, as we focus on preparing the Eurosystem, the domestic payments sector, and co-Legislators, for the Governing Council of the ECB to be in a position to decide to proceed to launch.Thank you for this opportunity to speak with you today and I look forward to further engagement with you all in the future.[1] Standards that payment service providers distributing digital euro must adhere to.
The Journey to a Digital Euro- Remarks by Anne Marie McKiernan, Director of Financial Operations at the IBEC Digital Euro Roundtable Event
Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here today to talk about the digital euro. My sincere thanks to IBEC and particularly the Financial Services Ireland (FSI) for organising and hosting this event (Elena, David and team). I am delighted to be joined by Eric Tak, Head of Digital Euro Product Proposition at the ECB, presenting here today – welcome Eric.We are delighted to update you on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) and Central Bank of Ireland work to explore the possible introduction of a eurozone Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), the ‘digital euro’.New technologies in retail payments have fuelled changes in our payment habits, especially a decline in use of cash. In response, central banks have re-stated our commitment to retaining cash as the universally accepted means of payment, and the majority of central banks are investigating the role of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in strengthening the role of public money. CBDCs are proactive measures – under consideration all around the world - to ensure that our currency remains fit for the digital age. The ECB is at the forefront of detailed considerations and preparations for CBDC (both retail – Digital euro – and wholesale).Digital euro will be a complement to cash and another universal means of payment in the euro area, with legal tender status, as cash-like as possible for a digital payment method. It will add resilience and choice, value and service for consumers, merchants and businesses in the payments system. The digital euro design features enhanced privacy; leading edge anti-fraud and cyber resilience, and a better user experience which is faster, easier and cheaper. Therefore, the journey towards a digital euro could help Ireland to catch up with peers in the retail payment space – which I’ll come back to later.To be a success, digital euro must be trusted and add value to users. The Eurosystem vision for Digital euro - embodied in its design - is to ensure it meets the highest possible standards of privacy and security, fraud protection and inclusivity. It will be free to individuals for basic payment services – the Eurosystem will bear the costs of production; it will offer an ‘offline function’ for digital proximity payments, even without an internet/ network connection. It will promote financial inclusion, by giving a digital means of payments even without a bank account, and users will be able to open a digital euro account with their current payment service provider (e.g. bank or credit union) and seamlessly move to another provider should they wish.Equally, merchants must see the value proposition. At the moment, there is no pan-European payment solution, which adds frictions and costs to trade for merchants/ businesses. Digital euro will offer a universal accepted solution for the euro area - so merchants will have the ability to receive payments instantly, aiding cash flowWe know that merchants often experience opaque fee structures in existing payment processes. With the digital euro, safeguards [in the form of a merchant service charge cap] are envisioned, to prevent unreasonable charges. Digital euro should, therefore, put merchants in a stronger position on fees and thus reduce their own costs.A key advantage of a Digital form of central bank money is the ability to spur further innovation in payment services – for businesses and individuals. CBDCs are characterised by public-private cooperation. The Eurosystem will provide this new form of money and operate the payments and settlement systems for it – and bear those costs. The proposed design is for the Eurosystem to provide a digital euro app, to payment service providers (PSPs). These PSPs, which are Supervised intermediaries, will distribute the digital euro – either ‘as is’, or by integrating it into their existing apps and wallets, offering potential for enhanced services and opportunities for customers. Under the Eurosystem proposal, these providers will be compensated for basic services, as is the case for other electronic payment instruments today. This combined “public-private approach” is to harness greater benefits of resilience and innovation in payments.Alongside the opportunities, it is important to acknowledge the challenges – and more importantly how we plan to deal with them. One of the technical challenges of digital euro is providing offline functionality, where Digital euro could be used even without internet connectivity. There are also financial system and regulatory implications from Digital euro (including ensuring that excess volume of deposits don’t flow from credit institutions to Digital euro and cause undue liquidity issues) – and these are the subject of intensive analysis and consultation, including on having a ‘holding limit’ on digital euro.The European Central Bank, in conjunction with the Eurosystem National Central Banks, is committed to transparency and dialogue throughout the preparation phase, and this involves engaging with citizens, businesses, financial institutions, policymakers and legislators - to shape a digital euro that reflects our societies’ collective values and needs. A major aspect of the ECB – and NCB - engagement with the financial sector on finalising the D€ Scheme Rulebook.Turning to Ireland – as elsewhere, the payments landscape has evolved significantly over the past decade. However, Ireland lags behind our EU peers on payments – particularly on choice and speed.We no longer have a domestic (Irish) card payment scheme (Laser scheme ceased to operate in 2014) and we rely heavily on international card schemes to make card payments. While cash is, and will of course remain, an option to pay, the popularity of digital payment instruments is high and rising (digital payments have doubled since 2015, while cash withdrawals from ATMs have fallen by 40%).While payments have evolved in Ireland, frictions in the payment chain are still evident (such as lack of Instant Payments and higher than average processing fees). A digital euro would spur reach and acceptability, and go a long way toward reducing some of these frictions for everyday retail payments, while enhancing user experience.The goal of the Central Bank is to harness the benefits of innovations, while preserving monetary and financial stability, and ensuring that the financial system continues to operate in the best interests of consumers and the wider economy.At the Central Bank of Ireland, we’ve been involved in the digital euro work programme as a member of the Eurosystem since the start in 2021, the ‘investigation phase’, and have more recently accelerated our work – including analysis of financial system implications, legislative development, readiness of payments service providers, costs, innovation opportunities etc. We analysed and backed the Eurosystem design principles - Eric will provide further details on these.The Eurosystem is almost 1 year into the 2-year Preparation Phase. I’d highlight the main objectives in the current phase as:To lay the foundations for the potential issuance of a digital euro AND be ready should a decision be taken to launch in the future. The key activities for this phase (as governed by the ECBs’ plan) include finalising the digital euro rulebook[1], defining rules and processes for the digital euro scheme and establishing framework agreements with potential service providers to develop, operate and maintain the digital euro platform and infrastructure. Further testing and experimenting to develop a digital euro is planned.The digital euro legislative proposal. The digital euro will be covered by a legislative framework, a draft of which was proposed by the European Commission in June 2023 and which is currently being debated at the EU Council and European Parliament. The legislation will grant legal tender status for the digital euro (on par with cash), requiring merchants to accept it as legal tender. [As legislative deliberations evolve, the Central Bank continues to work closely with our colleagues in the Department of Finance and the Department of Foreign Affairs to ensure national specificities and challenges can be appropriately dealt with as part of legislative debate.While there is not yet a definitive timeline for the conclusion of these deliberations, the decision to issue a digital euro will be considered by the ECB Governing Council only after the European Parliament and EU Council have adopted the digital euro legal act.On the domestic policy front, the Department of Finance is leading the development of a National Payments Strategy (NPS) for 2024-2030. This will set out the priorities that will help shape the future payment landscape in Ireland. As the Central Bank indicated in our submission to the consultation on the NPS, Ireland’s retail payments landscape lags behind other parts of Europe in some areas, and addressing these gaps is a priority. This will include work to understand how a digital euro interacts with the broader payments landscape in Ireland.Should a decision to issue a digital euro be taken, the Central Bank of Ireland, Department of Finance, other state Departments, the financial industry and merchants will work together, to ensure its successful launch.To develop and potentially launch a digital form of public money, we are broadening our engagement with the many stakeholders involved, to gather valuable insights and address challenges. Events, such as this with IBEC and all the businesses represented here, are invaluable to gather perspectives on the strategic opportunities and benefits presented by Digital euro for different end users. Over the next twelve months, we will expand our structured engagements with industry. Our goal is to have a high level assessment of the preparedness of the Irish payments sector for its potential introduction, if a decision is made to launch.To conclude. We see significant value and opportunity in the Digital euro and its potential contribution to the Irish payments landscape. We are working through the many exciting as well as challenging issues that it raises, as we focus on preparing the Eurosystem, the domestic payments sector, and co-Legislators, for the Governing Council of the ECB to be in a position to decide to proceed to launch.Thank you for this opportunity to speak with you today and I look forward to further engagement with you all in the future.[1] Standards that payment service providers distributing digital euro must adhere to.
Inflation, growth and the outlook for the euro area
The governor provides analysis on inflation, the future state of the euro-zone and the current economic landscape in relation to these matters with statistical projections from ECB.
Inflation, growth and the outlook for the euro area
The governor provides analysis on inflation, the future state of the euro-zone and the current economic landscape in relation to these matters with statistical projections from ECB.
Inflation, growth and the outlook for the euro area
The governor provides analysis on inflation, the future state of the euro-zone and the current economic landscape in relation to these matters with statistical projections from ECB.
Inflation, growth and the outlook for the euro area
The governor provides analysis on inflation, the future state of the euro-zone and the current economic landscape in relation to these matters with statistical projections from ECB.
Inflation, growth and the outlook for the euro area
The governor provides analysis on inflation, the future state of the euro-zone and the current economic landscape in relation to these matters with statistical projections from ECB.
Inflation, growth and the outlook for the euro area
The governor provides analysis on inflation, the future state of the euro-zone and the current economic landscape in relation to these matters with statistical projections from ECB.
Inflation, growth and the outlook for the euro area
The governor provides analysis on inflation, the future state of the euro-zone and the current economic landscape in relation to these matters with statistical projections from ECB.
Inflation, growth and the outlook for the euro area
The governor provides analysis on inflation, the future state of the euro-zone and the current economic landscape in relation to these matters with statistical projections from ECB.
Blue Money Lenders - Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm
Warning: Unauthorised Retail Credit Firm Unauthorised Firm Name Blue Money Lenders Website https://www.bluemoneylenders.com/# Email address(es) used info@bluemoneylenders.com Phone number(s) used 083 830 0990 01 263 0969 Authorisation in Ireland Blue Money Lenders is not authorised to provide retail credit services in Ireland. Additional information This scam is an example of an ‘advanced fee fraud’, where a payment is sought upfront prior to providing a loan. The loans are never provided. Notes:Any person wishing to contact the Central Bank with information regarding such firms / persons may telephone (01) 224 5800.For more information on how to protect yourself from financial scams, please visit www.centralbank.ie/financialscams The name of the above firm is published under section 53 of the Central Bank (Supervision and Enforcement) Act 2013
Blue Money Lenders - Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm
Warning: Unauthorised Retail Credit Firm Unauthorised Firm Name Blue Money Lenders Website https://www.bluemoneylenders.com/# Email address(es) used info@bluemoneylenders.com Phone number(s) used 083 830 0990 01 263 0969 Authorisation in Ireland Blue Money Lenders is not authorised to provide retail credit services in Ireland. Additional information This scam is an example of an ‘advanced fee fraud’, where a payment is sought upfront prior to providing a loan. The loans are never provided. Notes:Any person wishing to contact the Central Bank with information regarding such firms / persons may telephone (01) 224 5800.For more information on how to protect yourself from financial scams, please visit www.centralbank.ie/financialscams The name of the above firm is published under section 53 of the Central Bank (Supervision and Enforcement) Act 2013
Blue Money Lenders - Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm
Warning: Unauthorised Retail Credit Firm Unauthorised Firm Name Blue Money Lenders Website https://www.bluemoneylenders.com/# Email address(es) used info@bluemoneylenders.com Phone number(s) used 083 830 0990 01 263 0969 Authorisation in Ireland Blue Money Lenders is not authorised to provide retail credit services in Ireland. Additional information This scam is an example of an ‘advanced fee fraud’, where a payment is sought upfront prior to providing a loan. The loans are never provided. Notes:Any person wishing to contact the Central Bank with information regarding such firms / persons may telephone (01) 224 5800.For more information on how to protect yourself from financial scams, please visit www.centralbank.ie/financialscams The name of the above firm is published under section 53 of the Central Bank (Supervision and Enforcement) Act 2013
Women in economics: how can we accelerate progress? - Remarks by Vasileios Madouros, Deputy Governor, Monetary and Financial Stability
Good morning everyone.1 It is a real pleasure to welcome you all here for today’s conference on Gender, Economics and Society.Let me start by expressing my gratitude to the Irish Society for Women in Economics (ISWE). Not only for organising today’s conference, but – most importantly – for your continued efforts to empower, inspire and increase the visibility of women in economics in Ireland. Gender diversity in the economics profession is an area that matters for public policy in Ireland as a whole. And it is particularly relevant for us, at the Central Bank, given our mandate and mission. So I thought I would use this opportunity to cover our own journey towards greater gender diversity, and some of the challenges we still face, with a focus on economics.Women in economics: where have we got to?Before I turn to the Central Bank, let me start with the broader context of the profession. It is clear that women continue to be significantly under-represented in economics. This is a global pattern and, unfortunately, one that has proved to be particularly persistent over time.We can see that through differences lenses.Women are under-represented in the study of economicsAlthough precise definitions vary, in the US, the UK and Ireland women account for only around 1 in 3 of undergraduate students of economics.2 Women economists are under-represented in academiaIn the US, women account for around 1 in 5 of full professors in economics, in the UK for around 1 in 4 and in Ireland around 1 in 3.3 Women economists are under-represented in the private sectorThe share of women employed as chief economists in large, global banks was around 26% in 2023. In large, global insurers, it was around 7%.4Women economists are under-represented in the public sector.Globally, only about 12% of central bank governors were women in 2023, and only around 16.5% of ministers for finance.5In Ireland, we have not (yet) had a woman serving as either central bank governor or minister for finance.These are striking facts. Of course, if one were to look at equivalent statistics two or three decades ago, they would have pointed to even lower levels of representation. So there has been meaningful progress – which is very welcome. But we have much further to go to strengthen gender diversity within the profession. And – for me – there are two areas that merit particular attention.First, there are some signs that beg the question of whether progress towards greater gender diversity in the profession may be stalling in some dimensions.For example, in the US, the share of women receiving an economics PhD rose steadily from about 5 per cent in the 1960s to around one-third in the mid-2000s. Since the mid-2000s, though, the share of new economics PhDs awarded to women has been broadly stable at that level (Chart 1).A broader lens to monitor progress is the extent of women’s representation across leadership positions in economics – whether in academia, the private or the public sector. In the five years since the global Women in Economics index was developed in 2019, it has not shown any discernible improvement (Chart 2).And, in Ireland, the share of female students sitting higher level economics for their leaving cert has fluctuated at around 35% since 2011, with no evidence of the gender gap narrowing over time.Chart 1: The share of new economics PhDs awarded to women in the US appears to have plateaued Source: Meade et al (2021) ‘Changes in Women's Representation in Economics: New Data from the AEA Papers and Proceedings’, FEDS Notes.Chart 2: There has been no visible upward trend in the Women in Economics index in the 5 years to 2023Source: Various editions of the Women in Economics Index, available here. Note: The methodology for academia in the index was adjusted in 2020. The metric for 2019 has been adjusted to enable a better like-for-like comparison. Second, the representation of women is not homogeneous across different fields of economics.Indeed, under-representation of women in macro-finance is particularly pronounced.For example, between 2011–20, women represented only 14 percent of authors of AEA papers in macroeconomics, monetary economics, and finance (Chart 3).A similar pattern is evident in the share of women specialising in macro-finance at PhD level.6This is particularly relevant for us at the Central Bank, as macro-finance is a field of economics that is very closely related to our own mandate and mission.Chart 3: The under-representation of women as authors in macro-finance papers is particularly pronouncedSource: Meade et al (2021) ‘Changes in Women's Representation in Economics: New Data from the AEA Papers and Proceedings’, FEDS Notes.Notes: Women as a share of all authors, by paper’s research field, 2011-2020.The costs of under-representation in economics and central bankingThe continued under-representation of women in economics – and institutions that employ economists, including central banks – entails important costs.Why?Because it can limit diversity of thought. And, in doing so, it can hinder our collective ability to tackle complex problems effectively, increasing the risk of blind spots, biases and groupthink.The evidence – from a range of disciplines – is clear. Diverse teams and organisations are much better equipped to tackle complex problems.7The basis for that is cognitive diversity. That is differences in how people think, how they perceive information and how they analyse it.Diversity of thought results in teams and organisations that are better able to innovate, solve problems and make predictions.In turn, cognitive diversity is influenced by identity diversity. That includes differences in gender, ethnic background, sexual orientation, education, age or ability. These dimensions of our identity directly influence our life experiences and – in turn – shape our perspectives and our way of thinking.This is very relevant to the economics profession. The economy and financial system are prime examples of complex systems. So diversity of thought is essential for our collective ability to understand these complex systems and to tackle difficult public policy problems. And – consistent with the broader evidence – gender diversity adds to diversity in thinking in economics. For example, research in the US and Europe has shown that – controlling for a range of factors – there are important differences between the views of male and female economists.8,9Overall, then, the continued under-representation of women in economics means that the profession is likely missing out on perspectives and ideas.Perspectives and ideas that matter for public policy and, ultimately, for people – now and into the future.The Central Bank’s own journeyLet me now turn to our own journey, at the Central Bank. Like many other organisations, in Ireland and globally, representation of women at the Central Bank was held back by a range of explicit and implicit barriers over the course of our history.10These included, of course, the marriage bar, under which – until as late as 1973 – legislation required women in the public sector to resign from their job when they married.They also included a range of organisational barriers in the first few decades of our existence. For example, until the 1970s, many women in the Bank would have belonged to female-only grades of employment, such as lady clerks or writing assistants. Indeed, competitions for roles in the Central Bank – like the broader public sector – were often advertised by gender. Fast-forward to where we are today, and the picture is – thankfully – radically different, amid a broader societal transformation.In the Central Bank as a whole, women now account for around 49% of our people. Our mean gender pay gap is now 3.9% in favour of male employees. This compares with a State-wide mean gender pay gap in favour of male employees of around 9.6% in 2022.But we are still not where we need to be. Let me focus on two areas in particular.First, when we look at the representation of women by grade, women are still underrepresented in more senior positions (Chart 4).Chart 4: Women are still under-represented in senior grades at the Central BankSource: Central Bank of Ireland.Notes: Percentage point difference between the share of women and men employees at the Central Bank, by grade.The bars above the line reflect the ‘Professional and Administrative’ job bands. The bar below the line reflects the Technical and General (T&G) job band. This pattern is a key factor in explaining the remaining gender pay gap.This, of course, is better than where we were in the past. It feels hard to believe now, but the first appointment of a woman as a Head of Division was as recently as 2001.So we have further to go to achieve our goal that our senior leadership population is made up of at least 45% of males and females.Second, let me zoom in on economics in particular.Some of you might think that the Central Bank is full of economists. In practice, this is not the case. The Central Bank is unusual in terms of the breath of our mandate, covering monetary policy, financial stability, prudential and conduct regulation as well as resolution. So we employ a range of experts, from a range of fields.Economic expertise tends to be concentrated in a relatively small part of the Bank, which performs those functions that are most typically associated with a ‘stand-alone’ central bank.11And in that part of the Bank there is a greater gender imbalance, compared to the rest of the organisation.While at a Bank-wide level, women account for around 49% of our people, in the part of the Bank that typically employs more economists, the equivalent share is around 39% (Chart 5). And that share has actually fallen marginally over the past decade. More positively, in that same part of the Bank, there has been a significant increase in the share of women in leadership positions over the past decade (Chart 5). This has been a big change, and one that – amongst others – means that more junior women colleagues can see themselves more clearly in senior positions.Another metric is the share of authors of our working paper series, largely written by economists. This is volatile, because of relatively small numbers, but – overall – there has not been any discernible trend over time (Chart 6). In summary, while the Bank has made substantial progress towards greater gender diversity over time, we still have further to go, especially in the part of the Bank where economic expertise is concentrated.Chart 5: Share of women in the Bank and the area of the Bank that typically employs more economistsSource: Central Bank of Ireland.Notes: The area of the Bank that typically employs more economists is ‘Monetary and Financial Stability’, which is more closely associated with traditional central banking functions. Leadership refers to Heads of Division and above, as per the definition in our gender representation goals.Chart 6: Women’s share of authorship of the Central Bank’s working paper series over the past decadeSource: Central Bank of Ireland. Our approach to strengthening diversity and inclusion in the Central BankOur values as an organisation are clear: "We embrace diversity and inclusion, as they strengthen us, as individuals and as an organisation".12So how are we putting those values into action?Over the past decade, we have taken a more intentional and strategic approach to diversity and inclusion (D&I). This includes a focus on gender balance, but it is not limited to that. There are many different dimensions to diversity, and they are all important to ensure that we reflect the society that we serve. Our strategy has been multi-faceted.We have focused on leadership.That has been partly by appointing a sponsor for D&I at an executive level. Because demonstrating commitment at the highest levels of the organisation is a necessary step to make progress. We have also designed bespoke training on inclusive leadership for all of our leaders. Again, this is because leadership is critical and – for the organisation to become truly diverse and inclusive – visible actions and behaviours need to start at the top. We have put in the resources.We have set up a central D&I team. Because if you want to be serious about change, you need to resource it. The team is an enabler for the rest of the organisation, working closely with business areas right across the Bank to deliver our D&I strategy and action plans.13We have initiated targeted changes to our practices.Examples include enhanced training for our hiring managers, including with a D&I lens, or requiring mixed interviewing panels. Because recruitment is a key dimension for attracting diverse talent. But recruitment is not enough. Developing diverse talent is equally important, so this has also been a key area of focus for us. For example, we have invested in our internal mentoring programme, where currently 70% of mentees are women, along with 51% of mentors.And, since 2023, we have invested in supporting our emerging female leaders to develop through an external ‘Women in Leadership’ programme.We have grown our employee networks.A key element of our strategy is an appreciation that we need to understand better the frictions or barriers faced by different under-represented groups. And the best way of understanding is listening to those with the lived experience. That is why our five employee networks are central to our overall strategy of becoming a more diverse and inclusive organisation. We have focused on measuring progress.We are now collecting better data on the make-up of our organisation, although there are still gaps we need to fill.We are using that data to measure progress, including against the representation goals for gender and disability that we introduced for the first time in 2020.14And we are also using it to understand, analyse and act to address the underlying factors that are contributing to under-representation.15We have also sought external benchmarks as part of our measurement of progress. For example, we have been assessed under the ‘Investors in Diversity’ framework by the Irish Centre for Diversity.We recently moved up from ‘Bronze’ to ‘Silver’ under this framework, which is a positive indicator of progress, but also shows that we have further to go. Focusing on women economistsThese have all been important changes. If I am honest, though, I don’t know if they will be sufficient to address the under-representation of women in those parts of the Bank where economic expertise is concentrated. Or whether we need more targeted – and more creative – initiatives to really shift the dial, especially given the persistent trends we observe across the profession. I do not have the answers to this today. But I can tell you that we are determined to make progress. And we are open to ideas: whether tried-and-tested ideas that have worked in similar organisations, or newer ideas that we might want to consider.What is also clear from the evidence is that the gender imbalance cuts across the economics profession: in academia, the private sector and the public sector. It also starts early in the career trajectory, as well as gradually deteriorating over time, with evidence of a ‘leaky pipeline’.So a co-ordinated approach is needed, across the profession, and one that also incorporates early interventions.Which is one of the reasons why I am so grateful for the initiatives that ISWE has launched. And delighted to be lending our support to their endeavour. Indeed, some of the more recent initiatives – such as the introduction of the ISWE mentoring programme or engagement with potential future talent in schools – have the potential to be powerful levers.I believe that ISWE can act as a spark that helps us all accelerate progress, by fostering a more gender-balanced and inclusive profession.But shifting the dial on the representation of women in economics is a collective responsibility, for all of us in the profession. And, as one of the largest participants in the labour market for economists in the State, we take that responsibility very seriously. Thank you very much for listening and I hope you enjoy today’s conference. [1] I am very grateful Tara McIndoe, Patrick Haran, Kevin Mahon, Micheal O’Leary, Lucia Bermejo Rey, Pedro Velho de Sa and Caroline Mehigan for their advice and assistance with putting together these remarks.[2] For the US, see Chari (2023) ‘The 2023 Report of the Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession’, available at: https://www.aeaweb.org/content/file?id=20039. For the UK, see Costa-Dias et al (2023) ‘Report on the Status of Women in Academic Economics within the UK’, available at: https://res.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/women-in-academic-economics-report-2024-v5.pdf. For Ireland see HEA Statistics, available at: https://hea.ie/statistics/.[3] Friebel and Wilheim (2020). ‘The Women in European Economics Monitoring Tool’, available at: www.women-economics.com/index.html.[4] See Schuetz et al (2024) ‘The Women in Economics Index – Monitoring Women Economists' Representation in Leadership Positions’, DIW Berlin Discussion Paper, no 2076. [5] Ibid.[6] Sierminska and Oaxaca (2021) ‘Gender Differences in Economics PhD Field Specializations with CorrelatedChoices’, IZA Discussion Paper, No. 14778.[7] For a comprehensive review of both the theory and evidence, see Page (2017) ‘The Diversity Bonus’, Princeton University Press.[8] May et al (2014), ‘Are Disagreements among Male and Female Economists Marginal at Best?: A Survey of AEA Members and Their Views on Economics’, Contemporary Economic Policy 32 (1): 111–32.[9] May et al (2018) ‘Gender and European economic policy: a survey of the views of European economists on contemporary economic policy’, Kyklos 71: 162–183.[10] The material on the first few decades of the Central Bank is based on Dr. Deirdre Foley’s insightful talk on ‘Women in Banking at the Central Bank of Ireland’, delivered during the 2023 Dublin Festival of History.[11] This refers to the ‘Monetary and Financial Stability’ area of the Bank.[12] See Central Bank of Ireland (2021) ‘Our Culture Statement’.[13] https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/careers/diversity-and-inclusion/diversity-and-inclusion-strategy-2022-2026.pdf?sfvrsn=2b49941d_1.[14] https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/careers/policies/diversity-representation-goals.pdf?sfvrsn=4#:~:text=The%20Central%20Bank%27s%20goal%20is,45%25%20of%20males%20and%20females.[15] Given that we are one of the biggest employers of economists in the State, we have also shared our data to support studies on women in economics in Ireland as a whole. See, for example, Devereux and Samahita (2022) ‘Gender, Productivity and Promotion in the Irish Economics Profession’
Women in economics: how can we accelerate progress? - Remarks by Vasileios Madouros, Deputy Governor, Monetary and Financial Stability
Good morning everyone.1 It is a real pleasure to welcome you all here for today’s conference on Gender, Economics and Society.Let me start by expressing my gratitude to the Irish Society for Women in Economics (ISWE). Not only for organising today’s conference, but – most importantly – for your continued efforts to empower, inspire and increase the visibility of women in economics in Ireland. Gender diversity in the economics profession is an area that matters for public policy in Ireland as a whole. And it is particularly relevant for us, at the Central Bank, given our mandate and mission. So I thought I would use this opportunity to cover our own journey towards greater gender diversity, and some of the challenges we still face, with a focus on economics.Women in economics: where have we got to?Before I turn to the Central Bank, let me start with the broader context of the profession. It is clear that women continue to be significantly under-represented in economics. This is a global pattern and, unfortunately, one that has proved to be particularly persistent over time.We can see that through differences lenses.Women are under-represented in the study of economicsAlthough precise definitions vary, in the US, the UK and Ireland women account for only around 1 in 3 of undergraduate students of economics.2 Women economists are under-represented in academiaIn the US, women account for around 1 in 5 of full professors in economics, in the UK for around 1 in 4 and in Ireland around 1 in 3.3 Women economists are under-represented in the private sectorThe share of women employed as chief economists in large, global banks was around 26% in 2023. In large, global insurers, it was around 7%.4Women economists are under-represented in the public sector.Globally, only about 12% of central bank governors were women in 2023, and only around 16.5% of ministers for finance.5In Ireland, we have not (yet) had a woman serving as either central bank governor or minister for finance.These are striking facts. Of course, if one were to look at equivalent statistics two or three decades ago, they would have pointed to even lower levels of representation. So there has been meaningful progress – which is very welcome. But we have much further to go to strengthen gender diversity within the profession. And – for me – there are two areas that merit particular attention.First, there are some signs that beg the question of whether progress towards greater gender diversity in the profession may be stalling in some dimensions.For example, in the US, the share of women receiving an economics PhD rose steadily from about 5 per cent in the 1960s to around one-third in the mid-2000s. Since the mid-2000s, though, the share of new economics PhDs awarded to women has been broadly stable at that level (Chart 1).A broader lens to monitor progress is the extent of women’s representation across leadership positions in economics – whether in academia, the private or the public sector. In the five years since the global Women in Economics index was developed in 2019, it has not shown any discernible improvement (Chart 2).And, in Ireland, the share of female students sitting higher level economics for their leaving cert has fluctuated at around 35% since 2011, with no evidence of the gender gap narrowing over time.Chart 1: The share of new economics PhDs awarded to women in the US appears to have plateaued Source: Meade et al (2021) ‘Changes in Women's Representation in Economics: New Data from the AEA Papers and Proceedings’, FEDS Notes.Chart 2: There has been no visible upward trend in the Women in Economics index in the 5 years to 2023Source: Various editions of the Women in Economics Index, available here. Note: The methodology for academia in the index was adjusted in 2020. The metric for 2019 has been adjusted to enable a better like-for-like comparison. Second, the representation of women is not homogeneous across different fields of economics.Indeed, under-representation of women in macro-finance is particularly pronounced.For example, between 2011–20, women represented only 14 percent of authors of AEA papers in macroeconomics, monetary economics, and finance (Chart 3).A similar pattern is evident in the share of women specialising in macro-finance at PhD level.6This is particularly relevant for us at the Central Bank, as macro-finance is a field of economics that is very closely related to our own mandate and mission.Chart 3: The under-representation of women as authors in macro-finance papers is particularly pronouncedSource: Meade et al (2021) ‘Changes in Women's Representation in Economics: New Data from the AEA Papers and Proceedings’, FEDS Notes.Notes: Women as a share of all authors, by paper’s research field, 2011-2020.The costs of under-representation in economics and central bankingThe continued under-representation of women in economics – and institutions that employ economists, including central banks – entails important costs.Why?Because it can limit diversity of thought. And, in doing so, it can hinder our collective ability to tackle complex problems effectively, increasing the risk of blind spots, biases and groupthink.The evidence – from a range of disciplines – is clear. Diverse teams and organisations are much better equipped to tackle complex problems.7The basis for that is cognitive diversity. That is differences in how people think, how they perceive information and how they analyse it.Diversity of thought results in teams and organisations that are better able to innovate, solve problems and make predictions.In turn, cognitive diversity is influenced by identity diversity. That includes differences in gender, ethnic background, sexual orientation, education, age or ability. These dimensions of our identity directly influence our life experiences and – in turn – shape our perspectives and our way of thinking.This is very relevant to the economics profession. The economy and financial system are prime examples of complex systems. So diversity of thought is essential for our collective ability to understand these complex systems and to tackle difficult public policy problems. And – consistent with the broader evidence – gender diversity adds to diversity in thinking in economics. For example, research in the US and Europe has shown that – controlling for a range of factors – there are important differences between the views of male and female economists.8,9Overall, then, the continued under-representation of women in economics means that the profession is likely missing out on perspectives and ideas.Perspectives and ideas that matter for public policy and, ultimately, for people – now and into the future.The Central Bank’s own journeyLet me now turn to our own journey, at the Central Bank. Like many other organisations, in Ireland and globally, representation of women at the Central Bank was held back by a range of explicit and implicit barriers over the course of our history.10These included, of course, the marriage bar, under which – until as late as 1973 – legislation required women in the public sector to resign from their job when they married.They also included a range of organisational barriers in the first few decades of our existence. For example, until the 1970s, many women in the Bank would have belonged to female-only grades of employment, such as lady clerks or writing assistants. Indeed, competitions for roles in the Central Bank – like the broader public sector – were often advertised by gender. Fast-forward to where we are today, and the picture is – thankfully – radically different, amid a broader societal transformation.In the Central Bank as a whole, women now account for around 49% of our people. Our mean gender pay gap is now 3.9% in favour of male employees. This compares with a State-wide mean gender pay gap in favour of male employees of around 9.6% in 2022.But we are still not where we need to be. Let me focus on two areas in particular.First, when we look at the representation of women by grade, women are still underrepresented in more senior positions (Chart 4).Chart 4: Women are still under-represented in senior grades at the Central BankSource: Central Bank of Ireland.Notes: Percentage point difference between the share of women and men employees at the Central Bank, by grade.The bars above the line reflect the ‘Professional and Administrative’ job bands. The bar below the line reflects the Technical and General (T&G) job band. This pattern is a key factor in explaining the remaining gender pay gap.This, of course, is better than where we were in the past. It feels hard to believe now, but the first appointment of a woman as a Head of Division was as recently as 2001.So we have further to go to achieve our goal that our senior leadership population is made up of at least 45% of males and females.Second, let me zoom in on economics in particular.Some of you might think that the Central Bank is full of economists. In practice, this is not the case. The Central Bank is unusual in terms of the breath of our mandate, covering monetary policy, financial stability, prudential and conduct regulation as well as resolution. So we employ a range of experts, from a range of fields.Economic expertise tends to be concentrated in a relatively small part of the Bank, which performs those functions that are most typically associated with a ‘stand-alone’ central bank.11And in that part of the Bank there is a greater gender imbalance, compared to the rest of the organisation.While at a Bank-wide level, women account for around 49% of our people, in the part of the Bank that typically employs more economists, the equivalent share is around 39% (Chart 5). And that share has actually fallen marginally over the past decade. More positively, in that same part of the Bank, there has been a significant increase in the share of women in leadership positions over the past decade (Chart 5). This has been a big change, and one that – amongst others – means that more junior women colleagues can see themselves more clearly in senior positions.Another metric is the share of authors of our working paper series, largely written by economists. This is volatile, because of relatively small numbers, but – overall – there has not been any discernible trend over time (Chart 6). In summary, while the Bank has made substantial progress towards greater gender diversity over time, we still have further to go, especially in the part of the Bank where economic expertise is concentrated.Chart 5: Share of women in the Bank and the area of the Bank that typically employs more economistsSource: Central Bank of Ireland.Notes: The area of the Bank that typically employs more economists is ‘Monetary and Financial Stability’, which is more closely associated with traditional central banking functions. Leadership refers to Heads of Division and above, as per the definition in our gender representation goals.Chart 6: Women’s share of authorship of the Central Bank’s working paper series over the past decadeSource: Central Bank of Ireland. Our approach to strengthening diversity and inclusion in the Central BankOur values as an organisation are clear: "We embrace diversity and inclusion, as they strengthen us, as individuals and as an organisation".12So how are we putting those values into action?Over the past decade, we have taken a more intentional and strategic approach to diversity and inclusion (D&I). This includes a focus on gender balance, but it is not limited to that. There are many different dimensions to diversity, and they are all important to ensure that we reflect the society that we serve. Our strategy has been multi-faceted.We have focused on leadership.That has been partly by appointing a sponsor for D&I at an executive level. Because demonstrating commitment at the highest levels of the organisation is a necessary step to make progress. We have also designed bespoke training on inclusive leadership for all of our leaders. Again, this is because leadership is critical and – for the organisation to become truly diverse and inclusive – visible actions and behaviours need to start at the top. We have put in the resources.We have set up a central D&I team. Because if you want to be serious about change, you need to resource it. The team is an enabler for the rest of the organisation, working closely with business areas right across the Bank to deliver our D&I strategy and action plans.13We have initiated targeted changes to our practices.Examples include enhanced training for our hiring managers, including with a D&I lens, or requiring mixed interviewing panels. Because recruitment is a key dimension for attracting diverse talent. But recruitment is not enough. Developing diverse talent is equally important, so this has also been a key area of focus for us. For example, we have invested in our internal mentoring programme, where currently 70% of mentees are women, along with 51% of mentors.And, since 2023, we have invested in supporting our emerging female leaders to develop through an external ‘Women in Leadership’ programme.We have grown our employee networks.A key element of our strategy is an appreciation that we need to understand better the frictions or barriers faced by different under-represented groups. And the best way of understanding is listening to those with the lived experience. That is why our five employee networks are central to our overall strategy of becoming a more diverse and inclusive organisation. We have focused on measuring progress.We are now collecting better data on the make-up of our organisation, although there are still gaps we need to fill.We are using that data to measure progress, including against the representation goals for gender and disability that we introduced for the first time in 2020.14And we are also using it to understand, analyse and act to address the underlying factors that are contributing to under-representation.15We have also sought external benchmarks as part of our measurement of progress. For example, we have been assessed under the ‘Investors in Diversity’ framework by the Irish Centre for Diversity.We recently moved up from ‘Bronze’ to ‘Silver’ under this framework, which is a positive indicator of progress, but also shows that we have further to go. Focusing on women economistsThese have all been important changes. If I am honest, though, I don’t know if they will be sufficient to address the under-representation of women in those parts of the Bank where economic expertise is concentrated. Or whether we need more targeted – and more creative – initiatives to really shift the dial, especially given the persistent trends we observe across the profession. I do not have the answers to this today. But I can tell you that we are determined to make progress. And we are open to ideas: whether tried-and-tested ideas that have worked in similar organisations, or newer ideas that we might want to consider.What is also clear from the evidence is that the gender imbalance cuts across the economics profession: in academia, the private sector and the public sector. It also starts early in the career trajectory, as well as gradually deteriorating over time, with evidence of a ‘leaky pipeline’.So a co-ordinated approach is needed, across the profession, and one that also incorporates early interventions.Which is one of the reasons why I am so grateful for the initiatives that ISWE has launched. And delighted to be lending our support to their endeavour. Indeed, some of the more recent initiatives – such as the introduction of the ISWE mentoring programme or engagement with potential future talent in schools – have the potential to be powerful levers.I believe that ISWE can act as a spark that helps us all accelerate progress, by fostering a more gender-balanced and inclusive profession.But shifting the dial on the representation of women in economics is a collective responsibility, for all of us in the profession. And, as one of the largest participants in the labour market for economists in the State, we take that responsibility very seriously. Thank you very much for listening and I hope you enjoy today’s conference. [1] I am very grateful Tara McIndoe, Patrick Haran, Kevin Mahon, Micheal O’Leary, Lucia Bermejo Rey, Pedro Velho de Sa and Caroline Mehigan for their advice and assistance with putting together these remarks.[2] For the US, see Chari (2023) ‘The 2023 Report of the Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession’, available at: https://www.aeaweb.org/content/file?id=20039. For the UK, see Costa-Dias et al (2023) ‘Report on the Status of Women in Academic Economics within the UK’, available at: https://res.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/women-in-academic-economics-report-2024-v5.pdf. For Ireland see HEA Statistics, available at: https://hea.ie/statistics/.[3] Friebel and Wilheim (2020). ‘The Women in European Economics Monitoring Tool’, available at: www.women-economics.com/index.html.[4] See Schuetz et al (2024) ‘The Women in Economics Index – Monitoring Women Economists' Representation in Leadership Positions’, DIW Berlin Discussion Paper, no 2076. [5] Ibid.[6] Sierminska and Oaxaca (2021) ‘Gender Differences in Economics PhD Field Specializations with CorrelatedChoices’, IZA Discussion Paper, No. 14778.[7] For a comprehensive review of both the theory and evidence, see Page (2017) ‘The Diversity Bonus’, Princeton University Press.[8] May et al (2014), ‘Are Disagreements among Male and Female Economists Marginal at Best?: A Survey of AEA Members and Their Views on Economics’, Contemporary Economic Policy 32 (1): 111–32.[9] May et al (2018) ‘Gender and European economic policy: a survey of the views of European economists on contemporary economic policy’, Kyklos 71: 162–183.[10] The material on the first few decades of the Central Bank is based on Dr. Deirdre Foley’s insightful talk on ‘Women in Banking at the Central Bank of Ireland’, delivered during the 2023 Dublin Festival of History.[11] This refers to the ‘Monetary and Financial Stability’ area of the Bank.[12] See Central Bank of Ireland (2021) ‘Our Culture Statement’.[13] https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/careers/diversity-and-inclusion/diversity-and-inclusion-strategy-2022-2026.pdf?sfvrsn=2b49941d_1.[14] https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/careers/policies/diversity-representation-goals.pdf?sfvrsn=4#:~:text=The%20Central%20Bank%27s%20goal%20is,45%25%20of%20males%20and%20females.[15] Given that we are one of the biggest employers of economists in the State, we have also shared our data to support studies on women in economics in Ireland as a whole. See, for example, Devereux and Samahita (2022) ‘Gender, Productivity and Promotion in the Irish Economics Profession’
Women in economics: how can we accelerate progress? - Remarks by Vasileios Madouros, Deputy Governor, Monetary and Financial Stability
Good morning everyone.1 It is a real pleasure to welcome you all here for today’s conference on Gender, Economics and Society.Let me start by expressing my gratitude to the Irish Society for Women in Economics (ISWE). Not only for organising today’s conference, but – most importantly – for your continued efforts to empower, inspire and increase the visibility of women in economics in Ireland. Gender diversity in the economics profession is an area that matters for public policy in Ireland as a whole. And it is particularly relevant for us, at the Central Bank, given our mandate and mission. So I thought I would use this opportunity to cover our own journey towards greater gender diversity, and some of the challenges we still face, with a focus on economics.Women in economics: where have we got to?Before I turn to the Central Bank, let me start with the broader context of the profession. It is clear that women continue to be significantly under-represented in economics. This is a global pattern and, unfortunately, one that has proved to be particularly persistent over time.We can see that through differences lenses.Women are under-represented in the study of economicsAlthough precise definitions vary, in the US, the UK and Ireland women account for only around 1 in 3 of undergraduate students of economics.2 Women economists are under-represented in academiaIn the US, women account for around 1 in 5 of full professors in economics, in the UK for around 1 in 4 and in Ireland around 1 in 3.3 Women economists are under-represented in the private sectorThe share of women employed as chief economists in large, global banks was around 26% in 2023. In large, global insurers, it was around 7%.4Women economists are under-represented in the public sector.Globally, only about 12% of central bank governors were women in 2023, and only around 16.5% of ministers for finance.5In Ireland, we have not (yet) had a woman serving as either central bank governor or minister for finance.These are striking facts. Of course, if one were to look at equivalent statistics two or three decades ago, they would have pointed to even lower levels of representation. So there has been meaningful progress – which is very welcome. But we have much further to go to strengthen gender diversity within the profession. And – for me – there are two areas that merit particular attention.First, there are some signs that beg the question of whether progress towards greater gender diversity in the profession may be stalling in some dimensions.For example, in the US, the share of women receiving an economics PhD rose steadily from about 5 per cent in the 1960s to around one-third in the mid-2000s. Since the mid-2000s, though, the share of new economics PhDs awarded to women has been broadly stable at that level (Chart 1).A broader lens to monitor progress is the extent of women’s representation across leadership positions in economics – whether in academia, the private or the public sector. In the five years since the global Women in Economics index was developed in 2019, it has not shown any discernible improvement (Chart 2).And, in Ireland, the share of female students sitting higher level economics for their leaving cert has fluctuated at around 35% since 2011, with no evidence of the gender gap narrowing over time.Chart 1: The share of new economics PhDs awarded to women in the US appears to have plateaued Source: Meade et al (2021) ‘Changes in Women's Representation in Economics: New Data from the AEA Papers and Proceedings’, FEDS Notes.Chart 2: There has been no visible upward trend in the Women in Economics index in the 5 years to 2023Source: Various editions of the Women in Economics Index, available here. Note: The methodology for academia in the index was adjusted in 2020. The metric for 2019 has been adjusted to enable a better like-for-like comparison. Second, the representation of women is not homogeneous across different fields of economics.Indeed, under-representation of women in macro-finance is particularly pronounced.For example, between 2011–20, women represented only 14 percent of authors of AEA papers in macroeconomics, monetary economics, and finance (Chart 3).A similar pattern is evident in the share of women specialising in macro-finance at PhD level.6This is particularly relevant for us at the Central Bank, as macro-finance is a field of economics that is very closely related to our own mandate and mission.Chart 3: The under-representation of women as authors in macro-finance papers is particularly pronouncedSource: Meade et al (2021) ‘Changes in Women's Representation in Economics: New Data from the AEA Papers and Proceedings’, FEDS Notes.Notes: Women as a share of all authors, by paper’s research field, 2011-2020.The costs of under-representation in economics and central bankingThe continued under-representation of women in economics – and institutions that employ economists, including central banks – entails important costs.Why?Because it can limit diversity of thought. And, in doing so, it can hinder our collective ability to tackle complex problems effectively, increasing the risk of blind spots, biases and groupthink.The evidence – from a range of disciplines – is clear. Diverse teams and organisations are much better equipped to tackle complex problems.7The basis for that is cognitive diversity. That is differences in how people think, how they perceive information and how they analyse it.Diversity of thought results in teams and organisations that are better able to innovate, solve problems and make predictions.In turn, cognitive diversity is influenced by identity diversity. That includes differences in gender, ethnic background, sexual orientation, education, age or ability. These dimensions of our identity directly influence our life experiences and – in turn – shape our perspectives and our way of thinking.This is very relevant to the economics profession. The economy and financial system are prime examples of complex systems. So diversity of thought is essential for our collective ability to understand these complex systems and to tackle difficult public policy problems. And – consistent with the broader evidence – gender diversity adds to diversity in thinking in economics. For example, research in the US and Europe has shown that – controlling for a range of factors – there are important differences between the views of male and female economists.8,9Overall, then, the continued under-representation of women in economics means that the profession is likely missing out on perspectives and ideas.Perspectives and ideas that matter for public policy and, ultimately, for people – now and into the future.The Central Bank’s own journeyLet me now turn to our own journey, at the Central Bank. Like many other organisations, in Ireland and globally, representation of women at the Central Bank was held back by a range of explicit and implicit barriers over the course of our history.10These included, of course, the marriage bar, under which – until as late as 1973 – legislation required women in the public sector to resign from their job when they married.They also included a range of organisational barriers in the first few decades of our existence. For example, until the 1970s, many women in the Bank would have belonged to female-only grades of employment, such as lady clerks or writing assistants. Indeed, competitions for roles in the Central Bank – like the broader public sector – were often advertised by gender. Fast-forward to where we are today, and the picture is – thankfully – radically different, amid a broader societal transformation.In the Central Bank as a whole, women now account for around 49% of our people. Our mean gender pay gap is now 3.9% in favour of male employees. This compares with a State-wide mean gender pay gap in favour of male employees of around 9.6% in 2022.But we are still not where we need to be. Let me focus on two areas in particular.First, when we look at the representation of women by grade, women are still underrepresented in more senior positions (Chart 4).Chart 4: Women are still under-represented in senior grades at the Central BankSource: Central Bank of Ireland.Notes: Percentage point difference between the share of women and men employees at the Central Bank, by grade.The bars above the line reflect the ‘Professional and Administrative’ job bands. The bar below the line reflects the Technical and General (T&G) job band. This pattern is a key factor in explaining the remaining gender pay gap.This, of course, is better than where we were in the past. It feels hard to believe now, but the first appointment of a woman as a Head of Division was as recently as 2001.So we have further to go to achieve our goal that our senior leadership population is made up of at least 45% of males and females.Second, let me zoom in on economics in particular.Some of you might think that the Central Bank is full of economists. In practice, this is not the case. The Central Bank is unusual in terms of the breath of our mandate, covering monetary policy, financial stability, prudential and conduct regulation as well as resolution. So we employ a range of experts, from a range of fields.Economic expertise tends to be concentrated in a relatively small part of the Bank, which performs those functions that are most typically associated with a ‘stand-alone’ central bank.11And in that part of the Bank there is a greater gender imbalance, compared to the rest of the organisation.While at a Bank-wide level, women account for around 49% of our people, in the part of the Bank that typically employs more economists, the equivalent share is around 39% (Chart 5). And that share has actually fallen marginally over the past decade. More positively, in that same part of the Bank, there has been a significant increase in the share of women in leadership positions over the past decade (Chart 5). This has been a big change, and one that – amongst others – means that more junior women colleagues can see themselves more clearly in senior positions.Another metric is the share of authors of our working paper series, largely written by economists. This is volatile, because of relatively small numbers, but – overall – there has not been any discernible trend over time (Chart 6). In summary, while the Bank has made substantial progress towards greater gender diversity over time, we still have further to go, especially in the part of the Bank where economic expertise is concentrated.Chart 5: Share of women in the Bank and the area of the Bank that typically employs more economistsSource: Central Bank of Ireland.Notes: The area of the Bank that typically employs more economists is ‘Monetary and Financial Stability’, which is more closely associated with traditional central banking functions. Leadership refers to Heads of Division and above, as per the definition in our gender representation goals.Chart 6: Women’s share of authorship of the Central Bank’s working paper series over the past decadeSource: Central Bank of Ireland. Our approach to strengthening diversity and inclusion in the Central BankOur values as an organisation are clear: "We embrace diversity and inclusion, as they strengthen us, as individuals and as an organisation".12So how are we putting those values into action?Over the past decade, we have taken a more intentional and strategic approach to diversity and inclusion (D&I). This includes a focus on gender balance, but it is not limited to that. There are many different dimensions to diversity, and they are all important to ensure that we reflect the society that we serve. Our strategy has been multi-faceted.We have focused on leadership.That has been partly by appointing a sponsor for D&I at an executive level. Because demonstrating commitment at the highest levels of the organisation is a necessary step to make progress. We have also designed bespoke training on inclusive leadership for all of our leaders. Again, this is because leadership is critical and – for the organisation to become truly diverse and inclusive – visible actions and behaviours need to start at the top. We have put in the resources.We have set up a central D&I team. Because if you want to be serious about change, you need to resource it. The team is an enabler for the rest of the organisation, working closely with business areas right across the Bank to deliver our D&I strategy and action plans.13We have initiated targeted changes to our practices.Examples include enhanced training for our hiring managers, including with a D&I lens, or requiring mixed interviewing panels. Because recruitment is a key dimension for attracting diverse talent. But recruitment is not enough. Developing diverse talent is equally important, so this has also been a key area of focus for us. For example, we have invested in our internal mentoring programme, where currently 70% of mentees are women, along with 51% of mentors.And, since 2023, we have invested in supporting our emerging female leaders to develop through an external ‘Women in Leadership’ programme.We have grown our employee networks.A key element of our strategy is an appreciation that we need to understand better the frictions or barriers faced by different under-represented groups. And the best way of understanding is listening to those with the lived experience. That is why our five employee networks are central to our overall strategy of becoming a more diverse and inclusive organisation. We have focused on measuring progress.We are now collecting better data on the make-up of our organisation, although there are still gaps we need to fill.We are using that data to measure progress, including against the representation goals for gender and disability that we introduced for the first time in 2020.14And we are also using it to understand, analyse and act to address the underlying factors that are contributing to under-representation.15We have also sought external benchmarks as part of our measurement of progress. For example, we have been assessed under the ‘Investors in Diversity’ framework by the Irish Centre for Diversity.We recently moved up from ‘Bronze’ to ‘Silver’ under this framework, which is a positive indicator of progress, but also shows that we have further to go. Focusing on women economistsThese have all been important changes. If I am honest, though, I don’t know if they will be sufficient to address the under-representation of women in those parts of the Bank where economic expertise is concentrated. Or whether we need more targeted – and more creative – initiatives to really shift the dial, especially given the persistent trends we observe across the profession. I do not have the answers to this today. But I can tell you that we are determined to make progress. And we are open to ideas: whether tried-and-tested ideas that have worked in similar organisations, or newer ideas that we might want to consider.What is also clear from the evidence is that the gender imbalance cuts across the economics profession: in academia, the private sector and the public sector. It also starts early in the career trajectory, as well as gradually deteriorating over time, with evidence of a ‘leaky pipeline’.So a co-ordinated approach is needed, across the profession, and one that also incorporates early interventions.Which is one of the reasons why I am so grateful for the initiatives that ISWE has launched. And delighted to be lending our support to their endeavour. Indeed, some of the more recent initiatives – such as the introduction of the ISWE mentoring programme or engagement with potential future talent in schools – have the potential to be powerful levers.I believe that ISWE can act as a spark that helps us all accelerate progress, by fostering a more gender-balanced and inclusive profession.But shifting the dial on the representation of women in economics is a collective responsibility, for all of us in the profession. And, as one of the largest participants in the labour market for economists in the State, we take that responsibility very seriously. Thank you very much for listening and I hope you enjoy today’s conference. [1] I am very grateful Tara McIndoe, Patrick Haran, Kevin Mahon, Micheal O’Leary, Lucia Bermejo Rey, Pedro Velho de Sa and Caroline Mehigan for their advice and assistance with putting together these remarks.[2] For the US, see Chari (2023) ‘The 2023 Report of the Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession’, available at: https://www.aeaweb.org/content/file?id=20039. For the UK, see Costa-Dias et al (2023) ‘Report on the Status of Women in Academic Economics within the UK’, available at: https://res.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/women-in-academic-economics-report-2024-v5.pdf. For Ireland see HEA Statistics, available at: https://hea.ie/statistics/.[3] Friebel and Wilheim (2020). ‘The Women in European Economics Monitoring Tool’, available at: www.women-economics.com/index.html.[4] See Schuetz et al (2024) ‘The Women in Economics Index – Monitoring Women Economists' Representation in Leadership Positions’, DIW Berlin Discussion Paper, no 2076. [5] Ibid.[6] Sierminska and Oaxaca (2021) ‘Gender Differences in Economics PhD Field Specializations with CorrelatedChoices’, IZA Discussion Paper, No. 14778.[7] For a comprehensive review of both the theory and evidence, see Page (2017) ‘The Diversity Bonus’, Princeton University Press.[8] May et al (2014), ‘Are Disagreements among Male and Female Economists Marginal at Best?: A Survey of AEA Members and Their Views on Economics’, Contemporary Economic Policy 32 (1): 111–32.[9] May et al (2018) ‘Gender and European economic policy: a survey of the views of European economists on contemporary economic policy’, Kyklos 71: 162–183.[10] The material on the first few decades of the Central Bank is based on Dr. Deirdre Foley’s insightful talk on ‘Women in Banking at the Central Bank of Ireland’, delivered during the 2023 Dublin Festival of History.[11] This refers to the ‘Monetary and Financial Stability’ area of the Bank.[12] See Central Bank of Ireland (2021) ‘Our Culture Statement’.[13] https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/careers/diversity-and-inclusion/diversity-and-inclusion-strategy-2022-2026.pdf?sfvrsn=2b49941d_1.[14] https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/careers/policies/diversity-representation-goals.pdf?sfvrsn=4#:~:text=The%20Central%20Bank%27s%20goal%20is,45%25%20of%20males%20and%20females.[15] Given that we are one of the biggest employers of economists in the State, we have also shared our data to support studies on women in economics in Ireland as a whole. See, for example, Devereux and Samahita (2022) ‘Gender, Productivity and Promotion in the Irish Economics Profession’
Women in economics: how can we accelerate progress? - Remarks by Vasileios Madouros, Deputy Governor, Monetary and Financial Stability
Good morning everyone.1 It is a real pleasure to welcome you all here for today’s conference on Gender, Economics and Society.Let me start by expressing my gratitude to the Irish Society for Women in Economics (ISWE). Not only for organising today’s conference, but – most importantly – for your continued efforts to empower, inspire and increase the visibility of women in economics in Ireland. Gender diversity in the economics profession is an area that matters for public policy in Ireland as a whole. And it is particularly relevant for us, at the Central Bank, given our mandate and mission. So I thought I would use this opportunity to cover our own journey towards greater gender diversity, and some of the challenges we still face, with a focus on economics.Women in economics: where have we got to?Before I turn to the Central Bank, let me start with the broader context of the profession. It is clear that women continue to be significantly under-represented in economics. This is a global pattern and, unfortunately, one that has proved to be particularly persistent over time.We can see that through differences lenses.Women are under-represented in the study of economicsAlthough precise definitions vary, in the US, the UK and Ireland women account for only around 1 in 3 of undergraduate students of economics.2 Women economists are under-represented in academiaIn the US, women account for around 1 in 5 of full professors in economics, in the UK for around 1 in 4 and in Ireland around 1 in 3.3 Women economists are under-represented in the private sectorThe share of women employed as chief economists in large, global banks was around 26% in 2023. In large, global insurers, it was around 7%.4Women economists are under-represented in the public sector.Globally, only about 12% of central bank governors were women in 2023, and only around 16.5% of ministers for finance.5In Ireland, we have not (yet) had a woman serving as either central bank governor or minister for finance.These are striking facts. Of course, if one were to look at equivalent statistics two or three decades ago, they would have pointed to even lower levels of representation. So there has been meaningful progress – which is very welcome. But we have much further to go to strengthen gender diversity within the profession. And – for me – there are two areas that merit particular attention.First, there are some signs that beg the question of whether progress towards greater gender diversity in the profession may be stalling in some dimensions.For example, in the US, the share of women receiving an economics PhD rose steadily from about 5 per cent in the 1960s to around one-third in the mid-2000s. Since the mid-2000s, though, the share of new economics PhDs awarded to women has been broadly stable at that level (Chart 1).A broader lens to monitor progress is the extent of women’s representation across leadership positions in economics – whether in academia, the private or the public sector. In the five years since the global Women in Economics index was developed in 2019, it has not shown any discernible improvement (Chart 2).And, in Ireland, the share of female students sitting higher level economics for their leaving cert has fluctuated at around 35% since 2011, with no evidence of the gender gap narrowing over time.Chart 1: The share of new economics PhDs awarded to women in the US appears to have plateaued Source: Meade et al (2021) ‘Changes in Women's Representation in Economics: New Data from the AEA Papers and Proceedings’, FEDS Notes.Chart 2: There has been no visible upward trend in the Women in Economics index in the 5 years to 2023Source: Various editions of the Women in Economics Index, available here. Note: The methodology for academia in the index was adjusted in 2020. The metric for 2019 has been adjusted to enable a better like-for-like comparison. Second, the representation of women is not homogeneous across different fields of economics.Indeed, under-representation of women in macro-finance is particularly pronounced.For example, between 2011–20, women represented only 14 percent of authors of AEA papers in macroeconomics, monetary economics, and finance (Chart 3).A similar pattern is evident in the share of women specialising in macro-finance at PhD level.6This is particularly relevant for us at the Central Bank, as macro-finance is a field of economics that is very closely related to our own mandate and mission.Chart 3: The under-representation of women as authors in macro-finance papers is particularly pronouncedSource: Meade et al (2021) ‘Changes in Women's Representation in Economics: New Data from the AEA Papers and Proceedings’, FEDS Notes.Notes: Women as a share of all authors, by paper’s research field, 2011-2020.The costs of under-representation in economics and central bankingThe continued under-representation of women in economics – and institutions that employ economists, including central banks – entails important costs.Why?Because it can limit diversity of thought. And, in doing so, it can hinder our collective ability to tackle complex problems effectively, increasing the risk of blind spots, biases and groupthink.The evidence – from a range of disciplines – is clear. Diverse teams and organisations are much better equipped to tackle complex problems.7The basis for that is cognitive diversity. That is differences in how people think, how they perceive information and how they analyse it.Diversity of thought results in teams and organisations that are better able to innovate, solve problems and make predictions.In turn, cognitive diversity is influenced by identity diversity. That includes differences in gender, ethnic background, sexual orientation, education, age or ability. These dimensions of our identity directly influence our life experiences and – in turn – shape our perspectives and our way of thinking.This is very relevant to the economics profession. The economy and financial system are prime examples of complex systems. So diversity of thought is essential for our collective ability to understand these complex systems and to tackle difficult public policy problems. And – consistent with the broader evidence – gender diversity adds to diversity in thinking in economics. For example, research in the US and Europe has shown that – controlling for a range of factors – there are important differences between the views of male and female economists.8,9Overall, then, the continued under-representation of women in economics means that the profession is likely missing out on perspectives and ideas.Perspectives and ideas that matter for public policy and, ultimately, for people – now and into the future.The Central Bank’s own journeyLet me now turn to our own journey, at the Central Bank. Like many other organisations, in Ireland and globally, representation of women at the Central Bank was held back by a range of explicit and implicit barriers over the course of our history.10These included, of course, the marriage bar, under which – until as late as 1973 – legislation required women in the public sector to resign from their job when they married.They also included a range of organisational barriers in the first few decades of our existence. For example, until the 1970s, many women in the Bank would have belonged to female-only grades of employment, such as lady clerks or writing assistants. Indeed, competitions for roles in the Central Bank – like the broader public sector – were often advertised by gender. Fast-forward to where we are today, and the picture is – thankfully – radically different, amid a broader societal transformation.In the Central Bank as a whole, women now account for around 49% of our people. Our mean gender pay gap is now 3.9% in favour of male employees. This compares with a State-wide mean gender pay gap in favour of male employees of around 9.6% in 2022.But we are still not where we need to be. Let me focus on two areas in particular.First, when we look at the representation of women by grade, women are still underrepresented in more senior positions (Chart 4).Chart 4: Women are still under-represented in senior grades at the Central BankSource: Central Bank of Ireland.Notes: Percentage point difference between the share of women and men employees at the Central Bank, by grade.The bars above the line reflect the ‘Professional and Administrative’ job bands. The bar below the line reflects the Technical and General (T&G) job band. This pattern is a key factor in explaining the remaining gender pay gap.This, of course, is better than where we were in the past. It feels hard to believe now, but the first appointment of a woman as a Head of Division was as recently as 2001.So we have further to go to achieve our goal that our senior leadership population is made up of at least 45% of males and females.Second, let me zoom in on economics in particular.Some of you might think that the Central Bank is full of economists. In practice, this is not the case. The Central Bank is unusual in terms of the breath of our mandate, covering monetary policy, financial stability, prudential and conduct regulation as well as resolution. So we employ a range of experts, from a range of fields.Economic expertise tends to be concentrated in a relatively small part of the Bank, which performs those functions that are most typically associated with a ‘stand-alone’ central bank.11And in that part of the Bank there is a greater gender imbalance, compared to the rest of the organisation.While at a Bank-wide level, women account for around 49% of our people, in the part of the Bank that typically employs more economists, the equivalent share is around 39% (Chart 5). And that share has actually fallen marginally over the past decade. More positively, in that same part of the Bank, there has been a significant increase in the share of women in leadership positions over the past decade (Chart 5). This has been a big change, and one that – amongst others – means that more junior women colleagues can see themselves more clearly in senior positions.Another metric is the share of authors of our working paper series, largely written by economists. This is volatile, because of relatively small numbers, but – overall – there has not been any discernible trend over time (Chart 6). In summary, while the Bank has made substantial progress towards greater gender diversity over time, we still have further to go, especially in the part of the Bank where economic expertise is concentrated.Chart 5: Share of women in the Bank and the area of the Bank that typically employs more economistsSource: Central Bank of Ireland.Notes: The area of the Bank that typically employs more economists is ‘Monetary and Financial Stability’, which is more closely associated with traditional central banking functions. Leadership refers to Heads of Division and above, as per the definition in our gender representation goals.Chart 6: Women’s share of authorship of the Central Bank’s working paper series over the past decadeSource: Central Bank of Ireland. Our approach to strengthening diversity and inclusion in the Central BankOur values as an organisation are clear: "We embrace diversity and inclusion, as they strengthen us, as individuals and as an organisation".12So how are we putting those values into action?Over the past decade, we have taken a more intentional and strategic approach to diversity and inclusion (D&I). This includes a focus on gender balance, but it is not limited to that. There are many different dimensions to diversity, and they are all important to ensure that we reflect the society that we serve. Our strategy has been multi-faceted.We have focused on leadership.That has been partly by appointing a sponsor for D&I at an executive level. Because demonstrating commitment at the highest levels of the organisation is a necessary step to make progress. We have also designed bespoke training on inclusive leadership for all of our leaders. Again, this is because leadership is critical and – for the organisation to become truly diverse and inclusive – visible actions and behaviours need to start at the top. We have put in the resources.We have set up a central D&I team. Because if you want to be serious about change, you need to resource it. The team is an enabler for the rest of the organisation, working closely with business areas right across the Bank to deliver our D&I strategy and action plans.13We have initiated targeted changes to our practices.Examples include enhanced training for our hiring managers, including with a D&I lens, or requiring mixed interviewing panels. Because recruitment is a key dimension for attracting diverse talent. But recruitment is not enough. Developing diverse talent is equally important, so this has also been a key area of focus for us. For example, we have invested in our internal mentoring programme, where currently 70% of mentees are women, along with 51% of mentors.And, since 2023, we have invested in supporting our emerging female leaders to develop through an external ‘Women in Leadership’ programme.We have grown our employee networks.A key element of our strategy is an appreciation that we need to understand better the frictions or barriers faced by different under-represented groups. And the best way of understanding is listening to those with the lived experience. That is why our five employee networks are central to our overall strategy of becoming a more diverse and inclusive organisation. We have focused on measuring progress.We are now collecting better data on the make-up of our organisation, although there are still gaps we need to fill.We are using that data to measure progress, including against the representation goals for gender and disability that we introduced for the first time in 2020.14And we are also using it to understand, analyse and act to address the underlying factors that are contributing to under-representation.15We have also sought external benchmarks as part of our measurement of progress. For example, we have been assessed under the ‘Investors in Diversity’ framework by the Irish Centre for Diversity.We recently moved up from ‘Bronze’ to ‘Silver’ under this framework, which is a positive indicator of progress, but also shows that we have further to go. Focusing on women economistsThese have all been important changes. If I am honest, though, I don’t know if they will be sufficient to address the under-representation of women in those parts of the Bank where economic expertise is concentrated. Or whether we need more targeted – and more creative – initiatives to really shift the dial, especially given the persistent trends we observe across the profession. I do not have the answers to this today. But I can tell you that we are determined to make progress. And we are open to ideas: whether tried-and-tested ideas that have worked in similar organisations, or newer ideas that we might want to consider.What is also clear from the evidence is that the gender imbalance cuts across the economics profession: in academia, the private sector and the public sector. It also starts early in the career trajectory, as well as gradually deteriorating over time, with evidence of a ‘leaky pipeline’.So a co-ordinated approach is needed, across the profession, and one that also incorporates early interventions.Which is one of the reasons why I am so grateful for the initiatives that ISWE has launched. And delighted to be lending our support to their endeavour. Indeed, some of the more recent initiatives – such as the introduction of the ISWE mentoring programme or engagement with potential future talent in schools – have the potential to be powerful levers.I believe that ISWE can act as a spark that helps us all accelerate progress, by fostering a more gender-balanced and inclusive profession.But shifting the dial on the representation of women in economics is a collective responsibility, for all of us in the profession. And, as one of the largest participants in the labour market for economists in the State, we take that responsibility very seriously. Thank you very much for listening and I hope you enjoy today’s conference. [1] I am very grateful Tara McIndoe, Patrick Haran, Kevin Mahon, Micheal O’Leary, Lucia Bermejo Rey, Pedro Velho de Sa and Caroline Mehigan for their advice and assistance with putting together these remarks.[2] For the US, see Chari (2023) ‘The 2023 Report of the Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession’, available at: https://www.aeaweb.org/content/file?id=20039. For the UK, see Costa-Dias et al (2023) ‘Report on the Status of Women in Academic Economics within the UK’, available at: https://res.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/women-in-academic-economics-report-2024-v5.pdf. For Ireland see HEA Statistics, available at: https://hea.ie/statistics/.[3] Friebel and Wilheim (2020). ‘The Women in European Economics Monitoring Tool’, available at: www.women-economics.com/index.html.[4] See Schuetz et al (2024) ‘The Women in Economics Index – Monitoring Women Economists' Representation in Leadership Positions’, DIW Berlin Discussion Paper, no 2076. [5] Ibid.[6] Sierminska and Oaxaca (2021) ‘Gender Differences in Economics PhD Field Specializations with CorrelatedChoices’, IZA Discussion Paper, No. 14778.[7] For a comprehensive review of both the theory and evidence, see Page (2017) ‘The Diversity Bonus’, Princeton University Press.[8] May et al (2014), ‘Are Disagreements among Male and Female Economists Marginal at Best?: A Survey of AEA Members and Their Views on Economics’, Contemporary Economic Policy 32 (1): 111–32.[9] May et al (2018) ‘Gender and European economic policy: a survey of the views of European economists on contemporary economic policy’, Kyklos 71: 162–183.[10] The material on the first few decades of the Central Bank is based on Dr. Deirdre Foley’s insightful talk on ‘Women in Banking at the Central Bank of Ireland’, delivered during the 2023 Dublin Festival of History.[11] This refers to the ‘Monetary and Financial Stability’ area of the Bank.[12] See Central Bank of Ireland (2021) ‘Our Culture Statement’.[13] https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/careers/diversity-and-inclusion/diversity-and-inclusion-strategy-2022-2026.pdf?sfvrsn=2b49941d_1.[14] https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/careers/policies/diversity-representation-goals.pdf?sfvrsn=4#:~:text=The%20Central%20Bank%27s%20goal%20is,45%25%20of%20males%20and%20females.[15] Given that we are one of the biggest employers of economists in the State, we have also shared our data to support studies on women in economics in Ireland as a whole. See, for example, Devereux and Samahita (2022) ‘Gender, Productivity and Promotion in the Irish Economics Profession’
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