Deutsche Bank analysts highlight a powerful rebound in US equities, with the S&P 500 posting its best daily gain since May last year as Iran-related headlines boosted risk sentiment.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the final Manufacturing PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The data isn't going to change anything at this point, so the market reaction will likely be muted. We are currently in a risk-on sentiment triggered by US-Iran deal optimism after Trump suggested yesterday in a Truth Social post that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. The mood then improved further when the Iranian President said that they are ready to end the war but want guarantees. Finally, in the APAC session, Trump said that Iran doesn't even have to make a deal with the US for him to end the war as the US would leave as soon as it meets all the objectives. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we have the US ADP, the US Retail Sales and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The ADP is expected at 40K vs 63K prior. I don't expect the market to care much about the data now that the focus switched to a potential deal. In fact, if we do get a deal, we might still get some weak data for a couple of months but conditions will then start to improve. If the US-Iran war escalates, on the other hand, the weak data will just exacerbate growth fears.The US Retail Sales M/M is expected at 0.5% vs -0.2% prior, while the Ex-Autos M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.0% prior, The more important Retail Control M/M figure is expected at 0.3% vs 0.3%. Retail Sales is generally a market-moving report but the reaction are almost always faded because it's a volatile data set. Moreover, note that this is February data, so it's old news now and the market will just ignore it.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 52.5 vs. 52.4 prior. The S&P Global US Flash PMIs signalled an unwelcome combination of slower growth and rising inflation following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, according to the agency. The Flash Manufacturing PMI wasn't impacted as much as the Services PMI though. We can expect to see a weaker ISM employment index and a very strong prices index.Lastly, we have Trump addressing the nation at 21:00 ET/01:00 GMT giving an "important" update on Iran. The only thing that scares me a little here is that it's going to be after market hours. He usually delivers good news during market hours.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS10:30 GMT/06:30 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)13:05 GMT/09:05 ET - Fed's Musalem (hawkish - non voter)13:10 GMT/09:10 ET - Fed's Barr (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

With bitcoin caught between two opposing forces, which side will win out as Trump’s deadline on Iran winds down?

USDJPY is down this week after the bulls got discouraged by the resistance just above the 160.00 mark. Can they still come back to break it in April? Read in our latest Elliott Wave update. To access this article you need to have an active subscription The post Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – April 1st, 2026 appeared first on EWM Interactive.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 31 Today's month-end session was gladly welcomed by ever-ecstatic investors.Yesterday's session really materialized into a powerful move to the upside across global assets as the narrative took a significant turn.President Trump gradually pointed towards a lower resolve to maintain the defense of the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that European and Gulf countries would be the ones in place to take car of the quintessential strategic route for Oil tankers – Currently the most important 10km region on the entire planet.As Iran's President Pezeshkian confirmed, the talks are indeed ongoing and guarantees are demanded in order to move forward towards a more sustainable peace process.As indicated in our fresh WTI in-depth analysis, odds for a ceasefire by April 15 are still stuck around 25%, but this doesn't bar the way for de-escalation. This comes as a wonderful surprise to Participants which were gradually pricing for a long-lasting conflict.The situation is still far of being entirely resolved, with conditions for a deal still fragile, "trust levels at zero", as said by Iran's FM Abbas Araghchi, but just the simple idea of less uncertainty for the time being is a welcomed gift for Markets.Global assets exploded in today's action, with Silver up 7%, Gold up by 3%, Stock Indexes across the world following suit and Brent down 3% on the other hand.Today's strong moves could also have been magnified by the Month-End position closures, hence tomorrow will be an important test:Continuation of today's optimism hints at further continuation and a deal properly taking placeRejecting today's highs would mark the contrary, with doubts re-gaining the scene and more pain aheadA heavy fleet of US Marines are near and could still conduct a large operation if the narrative soured. Keep your eyes on this in case you see a swift turn in Markets.Even when the conflict is done, traders will still have to be extremely careful with what happens in the Strait of Hormuz and Oil prices. Read More:Brent-WTI falls to 2026 lows! Oil corrects as War resolution nears – WTI OutlookGold (XAU/USD) rallies 3%, eyes acceptance above the $4600/oz handle for bullish momentum to continueStocks explode as the US-Iran war may come to an end: Daily US Stock Market outlook and a step back on recent developmentsUSD Double Top as Markets slowly price end of War – US Dollar Index (DXY) outlookStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 31, 2026 Today's was a long-hoped dream for dip-buyers, particularly as the early morning bounce saw significant continuation.The Market was overtly ecstatic in today's rebound, hence continuation will be mandatory to avoid burnt wings and rough stops – What is sure is that we haven't seen such optimism in a long time.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 31, 2026 – Source: TradingView Asset correlations have been a powerful tool to assist traders to navigate the past month's volatile conditions.And today remained heavy on this setup, which may abate as traders move on, with virtually all assets exploding higher except for the Crude and US Dollar couple.The dynamic won't be so straightforward if Oil remains above $100, so keep a close eye on the commodity!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 31, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs European and Risk-currencies have done what they did best when risk-off flows abate, having rallied significantly from the turn of events.Watch out for a lack of continuation if WTI remains elevated – Who takes care of the Strait of Hormuz going forward will be essential to track FX flows.The Euro did see significant relief today, hence, keep track of EUR/USD and whether or not it continues its ascent in coming days!A look at Economic data releasing over tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow's releases will be heavily focused on the US with Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs, with geopolitics once again taking the center stage for other macroeconomic movements.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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Gold (XAU/USD) prices have broken above the key $4,600/oz psychological barrier.Middle East tensions are escalating as diplomacy stalls and the US continues a military buildup, fueling market uncertainty.The rare negative correlation between Crude and Gold appears to be shifting, with rising Oil prices potentially benefiting Gold by compressing real interest rates and bringing back the "inflation hedge" narrative.Gold needs to find acceptance above the $4600/oz handle for bullish momentum to continue.Most Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?Gold prices have risen over the last two days to pierce above a key psychological barrier at the $4600/oz handle. The precious metal is eyeing acceptance above this level which could lead to further upside in the days ahead, if the geopolitical picture remains supportive.Middle East Tensions: Diplomacy stalls as military buildup adds to market uncertainty Hopes for a swift de-escalation in the Middle East have taken a hit as Iran signals a clear reluctance to engage in direct negotiations with the US. This friction is undermining what was already a fragile diplomatic process, leaving market participants wary of a prolonged standoff.Iranian President Pezeshkian summed it up by saying Iran was attacked twice during the talks, proving the US does not believe in diplomacy. However, he followed this up by saying that Iran is ready to end the war, but wants guarantees. This mixed messaging is similar to what we have been seeing from the US administration as well.Adding fuel to the fire, the US continues to deploy additional troops and military assets to the region. As uncertainty climbs, the focus remains firmly on how these developments will impact broader market sentiment and the demand for safe-haven assets.Oil and Gold correlation shifts Since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, we have witnessed a rare and sustained negative correlation between Crude and Gold. Usually, these two move in tandem as hedges against geopolitical risk.However, the recent spike in Oil prices forced a massive repricing of Fed expectations:Rising Oil = Inflationary Pressure: As energy costs soared, markets were forced to price out previously anticipated Fed rate cuts.Gold’s Sensitivity: With the "pivot" narrative delayed, Gold lost its luster as a non-yielding asset, leading to the sharpest decline in nearly two decades.The tide may be turning. Over the last few sessions, we’ve seen Gold and Oil begin to rise at the same time, a signal that the negative correlation is changing.With Fed funds futures now effectively ruling out further rate cuts, but the market remaining skeptical of additional hikes, we enter a new phase. If the Fed remains on hold while Oil continues to climb, inflation expectations will naturally rise. This scenario would lead to a compression in real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation).As long as the Fed remains sidelined and refuses to entertain further hikes, rising Oil prices may actually provide a tailwind for Gold by dragging real yields lower.For gold bugs, the "inflation hedge" narrative might finally be back on the table.Where to next? The US dollar is still playing a role and with high impact US data ahead this week we could still see some volatility.However, it is Easter this weekend and thus the closer to the weekend we get the greater the probability that we could see a thinning of liquidity and thus some sideways price action.Market participants will still be keeping a close watch on the geopolitical developments in the Middle East and any changes to the situation could impact gold prices. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Gold (XAU/USD) is showing signs of a technical recovery on the H4 chart, successfully reclaiming the $4,600 handle.After a period of aggressive selling, price action has established a solid ascending trendline, suggesting that the "buy the dip" mentality is returning to the market.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: The immediate hurdle sits at $4,700. A sustained break above this level could open the door for a retest of the $4,800 area.Support: The recent pivot at $4,500 remains a crucial psychological floor. As long as the ascending trendline holds, the bullish structure remains intact.The RSI is currently hovering around 62, indicating that while momentum is positive, there is still room to run before hitting overbought territory. Bulls will be looking for a daily close above $4,600 to confirm this recovery phase.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 31, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The previous week in the financial markets was pressured down by rising inflation expectations. The hawkish monetary policy shift across the globe boosts demand for the US dollar. As there are no significant economic publications this week, traders pay attention mostly to geopolitical agenda and changing market conditions. According to the Fedwatchtool from CME group, probabilities for the interest rate to be kept at the same level until the end of 2026, have increased substantially.  That pressures major currencies against the US dollar, keeping volatility above the threshold value of 20. SOFR futures (overnight swap rate futures), which are visible on the CME group’s website, display some convexity in expectations. Literally it shows that expected yields of 30 year treasury bonds of the US are now higher than the predicted level, and the borrowing cost on the interbank market is higher than it was expected to be. That situation explains the elevated capital flows to the US dollar at the moment, and fragile position of stocks, Gold and crypto currencies.   SOFR watch indicator. Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html  As a result, EURUSD and other currencies get under pressure against the Greenback, while yields of 30 year bonds of the US continue growing close to 5%. It’s worth noting that the similar dynamics is observed across other regions, but the US dollar has a greater weight than, for example, Australian dollar in terms of capital flows. What would be in focus this week? This week, traders will continue to monitor the development of the US-Iran confrontation, which doesn’t seem to reach a resolution soon, as the US moves troops to potentially start the on-site operation. Houthis from Yemen joined the war on Iran’s side, complicating the situation. Brent oil has hit $116 on Monday, so we can expect oil prices to stay elevated for an indefinite period of time, with inflation expectations continuing to increase. That might create a downside pressure for major currencies against the US dollar, including Gold. Metals display weak performance even after three weeks of initial volatility spike, which might not be a bearish signal per se, but not a bullish one either. The NFP publication on Friday, April the 3rd, would be the main publication throughout the week. Let’s go to charts now and try to project any possible trading opportunities for the upcoming week. CADJPY  The Canadian dollar, as a crude oil related currency, might rebound early in the week against Japanese Yen, as it’s positioned right inside of the dynamic support area between 20 and 50 moving averages, and might follow the bullish pressure of Crude oil. The price is locked in a coil (a short-term trading range). If it is broken to the upside, it’s possible to observe CADJPY going up toward 116 area and higher. CADJPY, D1. Source: Exness.com  XAUUSD  Gold continues to consolidate at the bottom of the trading range, not displaying any signs of recovery. The strength of the US dollar makes the price action vulnerable, especially if it tries to break through key resistance areas of borders of formations. Testing $4600 would be indicative for the further price action of Gold. If it fails to break through, it might stay locked in a trading range for a longer period of time.   XAUUSD, H4. Source: Exness.comThe post The US dollar strikes back first appeared on LeapRate | Online Trading Industry News, Broker Intelligence & Fintech Analysis.

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The MNQ Trading Strategy Professionals Use (And Why Most Traders Get It Wrong) The MNQ is one of the most misunderstood trading instruments in the retail world. On the surface, it looks simple. It moves fast. Respects levels. Trends cleanly. Reacts violently at the open. But underneath that surface lies something very different. The Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures (MNQ) is not just a smaller contract. It is a direct reflection of institutional activity flowing through the Nasdaq futures market. It trades on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and although it is only one-tenth the size of the NQ contract, it mirrors the exact same orderflow. That means something important. If you don’t understand how liquidity works, MNQ will humble you very quickly. This article is not about indicators. It’s not about magical settings. It’s about understanding what truly moves this market and how to build a professional MNQ trading strategy around that. Why MNQ Is Different From Most Retail Markets Many traders approach MNQ the same way they approach forex or stocks. They look for patterns. Draw trendlines. Wait for breakouts. Then they get trapped. The reason is simple: MNQ is an auction-driven instrument. Every tick is the result of buyers and sellers competing for liquidity. Institutions do not chase candles. They position themselves around liquidity pools. Execute into inefficiencies. Exploit emotional traders who react too late. When you trade MNQ, you are participating in that auction. If you don’t understand where liquidity rests, you are trading blind. The foundation of any serious MNQ trading strategy must begin with one question: Where does price need to go to complete the auction? Not where you think it should go. Where liquidity is resting. The Timing Component Most Traders Ignore One of the biggest mistakes MNQ traders make is trading all day long. The market does not provide equal opportunity throughout the session. The highest probability movements typically occur around the New York open. When cash markets open, algorithms activate. Volume expands. Institutions rebalance positions. Liquidity gets attacked aggressively. This is when MNQ reveals intent. Outside of these windows, the market often becomes rotational and trap-heavy. Breakouts fail. Moves stall. False momentum appears. A professional MNQ trading strategy is not just about where to enter. It is about when to engage. Time precedes expansion. Liquidity: The Real Engine Behind MNQ Movement Retail traders are taught to focus on structure. Institutions focus on liquidity. Equal highs, equal lows, previous day highs, previous day lows, round numbers these are not just “levels.” They are resting pools of stop orders. Stops are liquidity. Liquidity is fuel. When MNQ accelerates into an obvious high or low, it is rarely random. It is often a liquidity sweep. Weak hands get stopped out. Aggressive traders enter late. Then the real move begins. Understanding this dynamic changes everything. Instead of chasing breakouts, you begin anticipating stop runs. Instead of predicting direction, you observe reaction. This shift alone transforms how you trade MNQ. Volume Injection: Separating Noise From Intent Not every move matters. MNQ can move 20–30 points on low participation and then completely reverse. What matters is not the movement itself it is the volume behind it. A professional MNQ trading strategy looks for volume expansion at key liquidity areas. When price sweeps equal lows and volume suddenly expands, something meaningful is happening. When delta spikes aggressively but price fails to continue, absorption may be occurring. This is where retail traders panic. This is where professionals pay attention. Volume injection tells you when participation shifts from passive to aggressive. Without that expansion, most moves lack conviction. In other words: movement without participation is noise. Movement with participation is information. The Role of Delta in MNQ Execution Delta often confuses newer traders because they try to use it as a signal generator. Delta is not an entry system. It is a confirmation tool. When price pushes into a liquidity zone and delta explodes negative, yet price holds structure, that tells you sellers are aggressive but not in control. When price breaks structure and delta supports the move, that tells you aggression aligns with direction. In MNQ trading, alignment matters. If price, liquidity, volume, and delta tell the same story, you have confluence. Confluence creates probability. Probability creates consistency. Risk Management: The Real Difference Between Amateurs and Professionals The irony of trading MNQ is this: The strategy is rarely the problem. Execution is. Many traders understand liquidity sweeps. They understand timing. They even understand volume. But they oversize positions. They move stops. They revenge trade after a loss. Because MNQ moves fast, emotional mistakes compound quickly. A serious MNQ trading strategy must include strict execution rules: You define risk before entry.>You accept the outcome before clicking buy or sell.>You do not add to losing positions.>You do not trade outside your defined time window. The goal is not to win every trade. The goal is to protect capital long enough for your edge to play out. Consistency in MNQ is built through controlled aggression not emotional reaction. Why MNQ Is Ideal for Serious Intraday Traders One of the reasons MNQ has grown so popular is its flexibility. It offers the same movement as the Nasdaq futures contract but with smaller exposure. This allows traders to scale in and out with precision. It allows funded account traders to manage drawdown more efficiently. It reduces psychological pressure compared to trading full-sized contracts. For disciplined traders, MNQ is a powerful instrument. For undisciplined traders, it becomes a fast way to burn capital. The instrument is neutral. Your approach determines the outcome. The Truth About “Simple” MNQ Strategies If you search online for MNQ trading strategy, you will find endless variations of: EMA crossovers RSI divergence Breakout systems VWAP bounces Do these sometimes work? Yes. Are they robust enough to withstand changing volatility regimes and liquidity conditions? Rarely. Markets evolve. Algorithms adapt. Retail systems get crowded. Liquidity mechanics do not change. Auction theory does not change. Human behavior does not change. That is why strategies built around liquidity, timing, and participation tend to remain stable over time. Final Thoughts: Building a Sustainable MNQ Trading Strategy If you want to trade MNQ consistently, shift your mindset. Stop asking: “Where should I enter?” Start asking: “Where is liquidity vulnerable?” Stop asking: “What indicator confirms this?” Start asking: “Is participation expanding or contracting?” The MNQ rewards precision. It rewards patience. It rewards traders who understand that price is the result  not the cause. When you combine: Institutional timing Liquidity mapping Volume injection Delta confirmation Strict execution discipline You move from guessing to reading. From reacting to anticipating. From gambling to operating with structure. And that is the real difference between retail noise and professional execution. FAQ – Trading Platforms for Mac What is the best trading platform? TradingView is the best trading platform for Mac due to its clean interface, browser compatibility, and professional charting features. What is the best futures trading platform? TradingView provides excellent futures charting, while IC Markets offers fast and reliable execution. Can you trade futures? Yes. TradingView, MT5 WebTrader, and cTrader Web allow Mac users to analyze and trade futures-style markets without installation. Which broker is best for traders? IC Markets offers the best combination of execution speed, low spreads, and Mac compatibility. Het bericht The Ultimate MNQ Trading Strategy (2026 Guide for Consistent Intraday Profits) verscheen eerst op theforexscalpers.

Gold price analysis suggests the probability of further downside as the stronger dollar weighs on the precious metal. The new Fed Chair nomination has triggered a wave of deeper retracement in gold after a strong rally. Gold’s structural support remains intact as central banks still buy, while US-Iran tension also maintains a safe-haven demand. Gold... The post Gold Price Analysis: Pullback Accelerates Amid Fed Repricing, Retail Liquidation appeared first on Forex Crunch.

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When the markets are anxious “risk off sentiment” money flows tend to move toward the yen, Swiss franc and gold. Equity markets can be seen as an indicator of fear and greed. The U.S. equity markets sold off on Wednesday erasing gains for 2018. On Thursday the markets rebounded and closing higher and recovering Wednesday’s losses. On Friday, the equity markets moved down again sharply as the U.S. session got underway.   As price made a lower high early in the U.S. session, a short was taken in the USDJPY risking 13 pips for a potential 32 pips to our daily target at 111.75. Price moved down to our target and we closed the trade. Price gained further downside momentum and continued lower without us. As the U.S. equity markets began to pare some of their losses intraday, the pair reversed higher. The majors made uniformed moves today and the USD has been weaker once again. I’m curious as to whether the U.S. equity markets can recover to close positively today to end the week. If not, next week may start off ugly with negative sentiment and continued selling. Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend!