Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire to start almost immediatelyTwo killed in drone strike in Southern Lebanon after ceasefireCanada April retail sales +0.5% vs +0.6% expectedUK PM Starmer to weigh future over the weekend - report"Multiple" cabinet ministers will tell Starmer to set out a timeline for leaving - reportIran foreign min says plans underway for future meeting with USMarkets:Gold down $49 to $4160WTI crude oil up 94-cents to $77.54US markets closedS&P 500 futures down 0.2%JPY leads, CAD lagsThe US was on holiday on Friday and that limited market moves to wrap up the week. There was news though as Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire. The market took at that as good news initially with oil falling more than $1 but those moves slowly unwound as the fighting in Southern Lebanon continued virtually unabated. As of the time of writing there were reports of ongoing shelling so that's worth watching over the weekend. Other reports continue to say that Iran isn't happy and Trump said in an interview with NBC that Israel needs to give the ceasefire a chance.In general, the US dollar eased in North American trade but one outliner was the loonie. Friday's retail sales number looked fine on the headline but below the surface, core sales were down 0.7% m/m and all the headline sales increase was on gasoline because of higher prices. USD/CAD rose to the highest since November.Gold attempted a bounce early in US trade but after a quick $30 pop it slowly faded before finding a footing at current levels. It will be a space to watch in the week ahead as the bulls struggle to mount a defense.Overall, it was a strange end to the week as the bond market priced in a more-hawkish Fed but most other markets ignored the shift. Perhaps that resolves itself next week or perhaps the excitement in AI continues to carry the day.Have a great weekend. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I thought we might see some real currency intervention today after Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said he was prepared to take 'decisive action' on speculative moves in the yen.That comment caused a quick fall to 161.00 from 161.70 but the pair soon rebounded to 161.30 and it's traded there since. If we finish around those levels, today will market the highest weekly close since 1986.It's a dangerous game buying USD/JPY around these levels given the intervention threats but the market doesn't seem afraid, even going into a weekend. Japan has spent about $73 billion defending the yen so far this year and it hasn't dissuaded the market. If there's no action up at these levels, the market might take it as a green light to drag USD/JPY to 165.00.Ultimately, I don't think the weekly closes matter as much as the intraday levels. The Ministry of Finance is likely eyeing 161.99, which was a short-lived high on July 1, 2024. Starting in that month, USD/JPY sank all the way down to 140.00 with the bulk of that coming in five consecutive weeks from the start of July.I don't see the risk-reward in USD/JPY longs at the moment but it's assuredly fundamentals carrying it and this week's hawkish press conference from Kevin Warsh gave the market ample reasons to buy dollars.That might have some in Japan watching EUR/JPY. That pair is still within the tight range that it's traded in since November and right in the middle of that range.Looking ahead, I would expect at minimum to get a barrage of yen-supportive talk in Japan next week. I would be careful to watch at the open of the week but officials also had a chance to intervene in low liquidity today and passed it up. The US is on holiday with stock markets closed. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This has to be the most-fragile ceasefire in history. It's hard to believe this is ever going to hold. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The party can't last forever.Friday's rally in stock markets -- particularly in chip stocks -- surprised me. The Fed was hawkish and stock market sold off during the FOMC press conference as bonds priced in a more-hawkish rate path. That all made perfect sense but then stocks immediately turned after the close and hit records on a few fronts on Thursday.The market is closed today and futures are a tad lower but it was a surprising reversal. The only visible catalyst was Trump signing the MOU with Iran but the market has rallied on that same headline dozens of times. What has me worried is valuations. Here's a worrisome chart from Grant's:What's even-more worrisome is that the P/E of the S&P 500 is about to spike because earnings are going to crater in 2026 because of the capex boom from the hyperscalers. Now, much of that spending will trickle down to other names but the big earnings from mecacap tech are gone so long as they keep spending more than they're making on data centers and chips.The problem is that companies are beginning to question AI spending. The mania around it is fading in part because even developers are hitting walls. Talking to contacts in Silicon Valley, the code that comes out of Claude and Codex is close-to-great but never great. It's like they're reaching for the rainbow but can never quite grasp it.That close-to-great has been seductive for managers but they're now finding out that it can never get to the finish line and is a perpetual tease. Moreover, bringing people into the loop to fix it is often just as expensive as doing it the old-fashioned way.I also think we're at the point where some of the capex gets reigned in. For starters, there is a tremendous amount of overspending and that never lasts but we could also see someone -- probably META -- bow out of the race. Now that could be next month or next year but I think it's the catalyst that causes a tech bear market.For now, I retain some skepticism on this post-Fed rally but we will see what Monday brings. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

UK politics is incredible. In 2024, Starmer delivered 411 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons and now he's on the way out. "Consider it over the weekend" is generally a code phrase for "I'll resign on Monday" but we will see.UK politics is an intense Game of Thrones and the non-stop backstabbing in both major parties is the kind of instability that eventually weighs on a currency. It hasn't helped that Starmer never seemed to have a plan about what he wanted to do. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

You can see the indecision on the DAX chart shown here but the overall mood was good. The bulk of the move came on Monday as the US and Iran reached a peace deal. That's driven the price of oil lower and removed a material risk to the eurozone economy. It's concerning there was no follow through but the market has had plenty to digest this week with the new Fed chairman and the fighting in Lebanon threatening to derail peace. If we can get a lasting ceasefire, European stock markets could get a stronger bid. If you remember back to the start of the year, Europe was briefly the flavor of the moment.Closing changes on the day:DAX flatSTOXX 600 -0.2%UK FTSE 100 -0.4%CAC 40 -0.5%Spain IBEX -0.3%On the week:DAX +1.6%CAD +1.0%FTSE 100 +0.5%STOXX 600 +0.45%SPAIN IBEX +3.2%Italy MIB +3.2%Year-to-date, European stocks are up modestly. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It was a week in two parts of the gold market.The good news came early as the Iran war ended, and seemingly for real this time. That news helped to extend a rally that started late last week and lifted gold from a low of $4022 to as high as $4382.The peak came just before the FOMC decision and it proved to be a gamechanger. The statement was hawkish and it was backed up by repeated assertions from new Chairman Kevin Warsh that they're determined to hit the 2% inflation target. He was deliberately vague on the specifics though and that has the equity market questioning whether higher interest rates actually coming.Compounding the pain for gold this week has been Goldman Sachs analysts cutting their targets. They revised their year-end forecast to $4900 from $5400 per ounce.“Our gold price views remain structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risk and medium-term upside risk,” they said.Mind you, $4900 at this point would be perfectly fine with most gold bugs. Gold is down $58 today to $4150 and touched as low as $4121. It's perilously close to a retest of $4000 and an ugly potential breakdown.The momentum is all downwards from here and the fundamentals aren't exactly constructive. Gold hasn't been able to rally on a more-positive risk backdrop since April and the bulls are struggling to stay optimistic.The good news is that the Iran war might actually be over and oil prices are falling. A big problem for gold during the war was the risks to emerging market current accounts. Turkey sold $120 billion in gold early in the conflict as oil prices spiked and that scared everyone into thinking more was coming. Now, with oil down to $76.85, those risks are minimal. In response, reserve managers might be looking to rebuild stockpiles and a relatively attractive price. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The picture for the Canadian dollar is worsening as it continues to carve out fresh 14-month lows.The US dollar is up another 33 pips today against the loonie, touching 1.4177. This will be the third consecutive week of gains for the pair and comes with oil prices falling in a post-war rout. WTI crude is down nearly $8 this week and trading back to early-March levels as the crude market prices in a rapid resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.On the domestic side, today's weak retail sales number highlights a consumer that was hit hard by the spike in gasoline prices. Overall sales rose 0.5% but it was all driven by gasoline. Excluding gasoline and autos, sales fell 0.7% led by lower sales at food and beverage retailers. The 2.0% decline in that category is an indicator of a squeeze on discretionary spenders.Canadian growth has struggled amidst a reversal in population growth following a post-covid boom. The population of Canada declined 0.45% in Q1 as temporary visas and student visas weren't renewed. GDP declined in both Q4 and Q1, triggering a technical recession.The indications look better for Q2 as April numbers were strong but that's colliding with a weaker consumer and ongoing USMCA uncertainty. Trump is attempting to renegotiate the deal and extract further concessions from Canada. Given Trump's penchant for brinksmanship, the headlines are likely to get worse before they get better.That dynamic and lower commodity prices has made it difficult for capital to find a home in Canada but if it's cleared up by year end, I would expect a solid reversal in the currency.The broader rise in the US dollar this week also can't be ignored. The hawkish press conference and statement from new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh has lifted the dollar and has the market pricing in 38 bps of hikes this year from 21 bps beforehand. Technically, there isn't much standing in the way of a return to the mid-140s as the break of the November highs has been clean and with some nice follow through. On thing to watch next week is the Monday release of Canadian CPI for May following a +2.8% reading in April. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Today's meeting between the US and Iran was postponed in light of the ongoing fighting in Lebanon but that looks to have been cleared up by today's ceasefire (hopefully). Now Iran's foreign minister says plans are underway for a meeting in the coming days.He said the talks will be about a final agreement and will depend on the start and continued implementation of the terms of the MOU with the USA.The foreign minister also said that the MOU was signed digitally so the Swiss meeting wasn't urgent. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

A report from The Times says multiple cabinet ministers will tell UK PM Starmer that his "time is up" and to set out a timeline for his departure.UK politics are brutal.Update: We learned that UK transport minister Heidi Alexander Calls was one of them. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

A 'senior US official' cited by Reuters says that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire from 4 pm local time, which is just minutes from now. Oil prices gave up a 50 cent gain and turned negative on the headline.Earlier today, four Israeli soldiers were killed in combat and two days ago 5 were injured so this comes as something of a surprise as some of the hawks in Israel are calling for escalation. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.9%The advanced April reading was +0.6%April retail sales ex autos +0.1% vs +0.7% expectedPrior ex autos +1.4% (revised to +1.2%)Sales were up in five of nine subsectorsCore sales excluding gas stations were down 0.7%Advanced May sales +1.0%This is a poor report and highlights how hard gasoline price rises bit in April due to the Iran war. The decrease in core sales was led by lower sales at food and beverage retailers (-2.0%) and general merchandise retailers (-1.7%). The largest increase in core retail sales came from building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers, which increased 3.3% in April after decreasing 4.5% in March.The entire gain in headline sales came from price, not activity. In volume terms, sales were flat — zero growth, which is what actually matters for GDP. The headline got its lift almost entirely from gasoline stations, where dollar sales jumped 5.1% even as the volume rose just 0.8%. Gasoline sales are up a staggering 22.8% year-over-year, almost all of it pump prices.The silver lining in the report is that the advance reading for May was up 1.0%, which indicates that poor April weather could have restrained spending. The oil shock is also fading in June as crude prices sink.The Bank of Canada is still likely to hike rates later this year as high prices bite but oil is going to be a factor in where the lands. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?ECB policymaker Wunsch says upside surprises in inflation would justify further tighteningECB policymaker Lane sees the current inflation shock as "mid-sized", defends rate hikeUSD/JPY is near the highest level since 1986 as divergence with the Fed intensifiesUK May retail sales +1.2% vs +0.5% m/m expectedFX option expiries for 19 June 10am New York cutWhat are the main events for today?It's been a very light session with no major data or news releases. The markets were also pretty calm with things expected to die down further during the NA session due to the US holiday. As a reminder, the US stock market and bond market will be closed and will resume trading on Monday. Futures markets typically halt or experience early closures, often closing at 12:00 p.m. ET.The only economic data we got was the UK Retail Sales report. The data surprised to the upside across the board but the market reaction was pretty much muted as it doesn't change anything for the BoE.ECB policymakers Lane and Wunsch defended last week's rate hike decision arguing that the ECB had not made a mistake by hiking while inflation was rising and uncertainty remained elevated. Wunsch, in particular, acknowledged that easing geopolitical tensions involving Iran and moderating wage growth could strengthen the argument that the ECB might have been able to look through the energy-driven inflation spike. Still, he maintained that last week’s decision was justified given the information available at the time.In the American session, there's just the Canadian Retail Sales report which is not going to change anything for the BoC, so the market reaction will likely be muted. Have a great weekend! This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The votes are in. The industry's most credible awards, the UF AWARDS GLOBAL 2026, have announced this year's winners, recognising the best brokers, technology providers and fintech brands operating on the global stage. Following a Voting Round that concluded on 15 June, the results were revealed at the Award Ceremony held on 17 June at the City of Dreams Mediterranean. The ceremony took place during iFX EXPO International 2026 but remains a fully independent event with its own distinct scope. This edition was particularly special as it overlapped with the UF AWARDS' fifth anniversary. Celebrating the best in the industry for five years is an important milestone, with so many shifts in the market. As new trends emerge and more ambitious brands enter the FX and fintech space, the UF AWARDS will continue to raise the bar for transparency and trustworthiness in an industry long dominated by vanity metrics.A verdict delivered by the industryWhat separates the UF AWARDS from the crowded field of industry recognition programmes is the process itself. The winners are decided by an open vote. Anyone can nominate, and every member of the industry can vote, from brokers and affiliates to partners, employees and retail traders. The people casting votes are people with real experience of the nominated brands, which is precisely what makes the outcome impossible to engineer through marketing alone.Launched in 2021 by Ultimate Fintech, the UF AWARDS were established as a benchmark for excellence within the global financial services industry. The GLOBAL edition is the flagship of the series, and this year's competition drew nominees from across the full breadth of the online trading and fintech ecosystem. Winning here means standing out in front of the industry's most engaged and most discerning audience.The UF AWARDS GLOBAL 2026 winnersThe winning brands have demonstrated sustained commitment to their clients and partners in one of the most competitive industries in the world. Congratulations to each of them.BROKER AWARDSFXPRO: BROKER OF THE YEAREC MARKETS: BEST GLOBAL BROKERFP MARKETS: MOST TRUSTED BROKERFXTM: BEST CFD BROKERAXIORY: MOST INNOVATIVE BROKERVS MARKETS: MOST TRANSPARENT BROKERALPARI: BEST TRADING EXECUTIONTRADINGPRO: BEST TRADING EXPERIENCEWRPRO: BEST TRADING CONDITIONSVANTAGE: BEST BROKER FOR COPY TRADINGVERSUS TRADE: FASTEST GROWING BROKERTENTRADE: BEST EMERGING BROKERBULLWAVES: BEST AFFILIATE PROGRAMMEONEFUNDED: FASTEST GROWING PROP FIRMB2B AWARDSCENTROID SOLUTIONS: BEST TECHNOLOGY PROVIDERSCALETRADE: BEST TRADING PLATFORMCTRADER: BEST MOBILE TRADING APPPLUGIT: BEST COPY TRADING PLATFORMMATCH-TRADER: BEST PREDICTION MARKETS PLATFORMFINALTO: BEST B2B LIQUIDITY PROVIDERADVANCED MARKETS: MOST TRUSTED B2B LIQUIDITY PROVIDERTAPAAS: MOST INNOVATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT PROVIDERDEXA: BEST RISK MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONEXO CRM & TRADER: BEST CRM PROVIDERPAYTIKO: BEST CASHIER PLATFORMLETKNOW PAY: BEST CRYPTO PAYMENT GATEWAYMATCH2PAY: BEST CRYPTO PAYMENT SOLUTIONBLOCKMAZE: FINTECH OF THE YEARRecognition that carries weightReaching the voting stage was already a significant achievement for every nominated brand, placing them head-to-head with the most prominent names in the industry in front of a hyper-focused global audience. Winning goes further. A UF AWARDS GLOBAL title positions a brand among the most respected and trusted names in the market, backed by the only form of validation that cannot be bought: the active support of clients, partners and peers.For the winners, the trophy lifted at the City of Dreams Mediterranean represents thousands of individual decisions by people who chose to stand behind their brand. That is the kind of recognition that outlasts a marketing cycle.Looking aheadThe organisers thank everyone who participated in the UF AWARDS GLOBAL 2026, from the nominated brands to the thousands of voters who delivered the industry's verdict, and congratulate the winners on their dedication and relentless pursuit of excellence. As the flagship edition reaches its ceremonious close, attention now turns to the next edition of the UF AWARDS. Will your brand be on the 2027 winners' list? This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Rate hikes by year-endRBNZ: 62 bps (80% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)Fed: 38 bps (40% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)ECB: 37 bps (78% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoE: 33 bps (81% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoC: 26 bps (93% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoJ: 23 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting)RBA: 15 bps (75% probability of no change at the next meeting)SNB: 7 bps (92% probability of no change at the next meeting)Last week's market pricing hereIf you take a look at last week's pricing, you can notice that the only major change happened on the Fed side. The only takeaway from the FOMC decision was the more hawkish dot plot as the statement didn't contain anything and Fed Chair Warsh refrained from giving forward guidance.The median dot plot surprisingly showed one rate hike this year, with some of those hawkish members expecting even multiple hikes (the consensus was looking for no cuts or hikes this year). By projecting a rate hike, the Fed effectively adopted a tightening bias in the short-term.The market increased rate hike bets immediately with now 38 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There's a 40% chance of a hike already in July and 72% probability of a move in September.The economic data and financial markets will now guide the Fed as Warsh stated that “financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data and are less efficient when they have to ask how the Federal Reserve will react to the incoming data”. He added that “financial markets are the most important source of information to guide the central bank”.Trump also posted on Truth Social and, unlike his usual stance under Fed Chair Powell, did not object to the Fed’s decision. In fact, he said that “rate hikes could happen,” which sounds like a green light for Warsh and the Fed to do whatever they deem necessary.The signal is that the Fed is finally looking to deliver on its price stability mandate and bring inflation back to the 2% target that it’s been missing since 2021. If the data says they need to hike, they will. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Full article hereECB's Wunsch said he would support another 25 bps hike if inflation data continues to come in stronger than expected, particularly after the recent rise in Eurozone services inflation. He said persistent upside surprises in inflation would justify further tightening as a precaution, though he added there is no need to rush into another move if the data remains mixed or unclear.Wunsch defended the ECB’s latest rate increase, arguing that the central bank had not made a mistake by hiking while inflation was rising and uncertainty remained elevated. He noted that real interest rates had actually declined slightly and stressed that the ECB still has room to cut rates later if inflation pressures ease.He also acknowledged that easing geopolitical tensions involving Iran and moderating wage growth could strengthen the argument that the ECB might have been able to look through the recent energy-driven inflation spike. Still, he maintained that last week’s decision was justified given the information available at the time.Wunsch also called for clearer communication from the ECB, suggesting the bank should offer more explicit guidance on how future policy decisions depend on incoming data and geopolitical developments rather than relying solely on its standard meeting-by-meeting approach.The market is currently pricing in 36 bps of tightening by year-end with 67% chance of a rate hike in September. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Inflation will be above 3% for the rest of this year It's hard to make a case that we shouldn't have hiked There is a fair amount of resilience in the Eurozone economy Eurozone economy has steady momentum So far this is a mid-sized inflation shockECB's Chief Economist Philip Lane defended the latest 25 bps hike, arguing that policymakers had strong justification to tighten policy as inflation risks stemming from the US-Iran conflict and elevated energy prices continued to pressure the Eurozone economy.Lane said inflation is expected to remain above 3% for the rest of the year, highlighting the ECB’s concern that the recent energy-driven price shock could become more entrenched.The ECB delivered the rate increase at its last meeting in response to persistent upside inflation risks, particularly after the escalation of the US-Iran war triggered a sharp rise in oil and gas prices over recent months. Higher energy costs have fed into transportation, manufacturing, and consumer prices across the eurozone, raising fears of second-round inflation effects.He also struck a constructive tone on economic activity, noting that the Eurozone continues to show resilience and maintaining steady momentum.Lane characterized the current inflation episode as “a mid-sized inflation shock”, suggesting the ECB does not view the situation as comparable to the extreme energy crisis seen in 2022. However, the persistence of elevated price pressures remains sufficient to justify a cautious, restrictive policy stance. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar surged across the board on the more hawkish than expected dot plot (the consensus was looking for no cuts or hikes this year). The median dot showed one rate hike this year and some of those hawkish members pencilled in multiple hikes. By projecting a rate hike, the Fed effectively adopted a tightening bias in the short-term.The market increased rate hike bets immediately with now 38 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There's a 40% chance of a hike already in July and 72% probability of a move in September.The economic data and financial markets will now guide the Fed as Warsh stated that “financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data and are less efficient when they have to ask how the Federal Reserve will react to the incoming data”. He added that “financial markets are the most important source of information to guide the central bank”.Trump also posted on Truth Social and, unlike his usual stance under Fed Chair Powell, did not object to the Fed’s decision. In fact, he said that “rate hikes could happen,” which sounds like a green light for Warsh and the Fed to do whatever they deem necessary.The signal is that the Fed is finally looking to deliver on its price stability mandate and bring inflation back to the 2% target that it’s been missing since 2021. If the data says they need to hike, they will.My expectation is that the negative supply shock caused by the US-Iran war turns into a positive demand shock now that the war ended and oil prices dropped significantly. I think that's going to boost economic activity further and the markets are already positioning for that scenario.JPY:On the JPY side, the BoJ hiked the policy rate to 1.00% as widely expected and announced the pause to the bond tapering programme from next fiscal year. The forward guidance remained the same with the BoJ looking to continue the normalisation process, raising the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation “in response to developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions”. BoJ’s Uchida didn’t offer anything new in the press conference reiterating the central bank’s willingness to raise rates further if economic conditions align. The Japanese CPI data today came in line with expectations with all the inflation metrics below the 2% target. The divergence with the Fed will continue to keep the USD/JPY pair skewed to the upside. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY broke out of the consolidation around the 160.00 handle and surged towards the 162.00 handle following the more hawkish than expected Fed’s dot plot. We can expect the sellers to step in around the 162.00 level with a defined risk above it to position for a correction to the major upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline and a support zone around the 160.50 level. This is going to be a key spot now. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to step in around the support with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop back into the 158.00 handle next. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have yet another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. We can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the 160.50 support next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -1.3% (revised to -1.0%)Retail sales +3.2% vs +1.9% y/y expectedPrior +0.0% (revised to +0.1%)Retail sales ex autos, fuel 1.2% vs +0.4% m/m expectedPrior -0.4% (revised to -0.1%)Retail sales ex autos, fuel +4.6% vs +3.3% y/y expectedPrior +1.1%Full report hereThis is a good report but won't change much for the BoE at this point. The ONS says: "The quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales is estimated to have risen by 0.4% in the three months to May 2026 compared with the three months to February 2026. Non-food stores’ sales volumes rose, with department stores performing well in May because of the good weather. Also within non-food stores, computer and telecoms retailers continued to grow following product releases in March 2026. Non-store retailers rose following strong March and May periods.Retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 1.2% in May 2026. This follows a fall of 1.0% in April 2026 (revised up from a 1.3% fall in our previous bulletin), and a rise of 0.7% in March 2026 (revised up from a 0.6% rise in our previous bulletin). Retailers suggested that promotions and the hot weather in May increased sales volumes for non-store retailers and department stores." This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD1.1500 (EUR 3.45 bn)1.1350 (EUR 1.06 bn)USD/JPY162.00 (US$ 411.07 mn)GBP/USD1.3350 (GBP 323.37 mn)USD/CHF0.7980 (US$ 593.83 mn)USD/CAD1.4000 (US$ 621.46 mn)AUD/USD0.7055 (AUD 385.01 mn)0.7000 (AUD 362.60 mn)NZD/USD0.5800 (NZD 351.00 mn)EUR/GBP0.8750 (EUR 255.99 mn)WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES?The FX option expiration price levels refer to the strike prices where option contracts are set to expire. These levels include both calls and puts.When you see "EUR/USD at 1.1600 for €4 billion" it means there is a total of €4 billion worth of options (calls + puts combined) that have a strike price of 1.1600 and are expiring at that specific time (the "New York Cut" at 10:00 AM ET).Traders watch these levels because they often act as a "magnet" for the price. For example, if there's nothing happening in the market and the price is close to the expiry level, let's say 30-50 pips away, what you will usually see is the price moving into the expiry level. This happens due to the hedging activity of the market makers (banks, dealers and so on).As the price gets closer to the strike price near expiration, these market makers must aggressively buy or sell the currency to hedge their risk. This hedging activity tends to suppress volatility and keep the price "pinned" close to the strike price until the expiration time passes. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.