The NZDUSD pushed higher yesterday and extended the move again today, but upside momentum stalled where it matters most technically.On the hourly chart, the pair made three separate attempts to break above the 38.2% retracement at 0.57714 (from the March 20 high). While price briefly traded above that level twice, buyers could not generate enough follow-through to test—let alone break—the falling 200-hour moving average at 0.57808. The rally peaked at 0.57764 before running out of steam and rotating back to the downside.That failure near key resistance was telling.The price has now moved lower and is testing the 100-hour moving average at 0.57406, which becomes the next key barometer. If sellers can push and hold below that level, it would shift the short-term bias back in their favor and open the door for a retest of the lows from Monday and Tuesday.The buyers had their opportunity over the past few sessions, but they couldn’t clear the technical hurdles needed to take control. With momentum fading near resistance, the sellers now have the edge—and a chance to press the downside if the 100-hour MA gives way.The buyers have given up and the price has now rotated lower. The price is down testing the 100 hour MA at 0.57406. If the price can get below the MA, that would give the sellers more confidence and have traders looking back to the lows reached on Monday and Tuesday. The buyers took a shot over the last few days, but could not get over some of the humps needed to take more control. Now, the sellers have the shot to exert the pressure once again. Watch 0.5740 for bias clues. If the buyers can stall, the price remains in a battle with the buyers and sellers leaning against the 200 hour MA above and the 100 hour MA below. If the sellers can push back below the 100 hour MA, the sellers can make another push to the lows for the week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has released an open letter to the American people, questioning whether Washington is truly putting “America First” or merely acting as a “proxy for Israel” willing to fight “to the last American soldier.”In the Wednesday message, which traces the roots of US-Iran tensions back to the 1953 coup while condemning recent bombings of Iranian infrastructure, Pezeshkian notes that Tehran harbors no enmity toward ordinary Americans.Instead, he urges the U.S. populace to look past “manufactured narratives,” arguing that the perceived Iranian threat is an invention of the military-industrial complex and Israeli political interests.Summary:Iran's Historical Identity Pezeshkian presents Iran as one of the world's oldest continuous civilizations — one that has never initiated a war in modern history, even when militarily capable of doing so.Iran-U.S. Relations: Origins & Deterioration He traces the breakdown to the 1953 U.S.-backed coup against Mosaddegh, followed by support for the Shah, U.S. backing of Saddam Hussein in the 1980s war, and decades of sweeping sanctions.Iran as a Manufactured Threat Pezeshkian argues Iran's threatening image is politically constructed to justify military spending, regional dominance, and arms industry interests — not grounded in Iranian behavior.Iran's Domestic Progress Despite Pressure He points to measurable gains — literacy rising from ~30% to over 90%, advances in technology, healthcare, and infrastructure — as evidence of Iranian resilience and capability.Critique of U.S. Military Actions Recent strikes on energy, industrial, and medical facilities are called war crimes that harm civilians and damage America's global standing.Israel's Alleged Role Pezeshkian directly accuses Israel of manipulating the U.S. into fighting Iran as a proxy war, diverting attention from Palestinian issues at American expense.Appeal to the American Public He encourages Americans to look past media narratives and points to Iranian immigrants thriving in Western institutions as a counter-narrative.Closing Message Confrontation is framed as historically futile. Pezeshkian positions Iran as enduring and dignified, and calls for a shift toward engagement.The full text of the president’s letter follows below:In the name of God, the Compassionate, the MercifulTo the people of the United States of America, and to all those who, amid a flood of distortions and manufactured narratives, continue to seek the truth and aspire to a better life:Iran—by this very name, character, and identity—is one of the oldest continuous civilizations in human history. Despite its historical and geographical advantages at various times, Iran has never, in its modern history, chosen the path of aggression, expansion, colonialism, or domination. Even after enduring occupation, invasion, and sustained pressure from global powers—and despite possessing military superiority over many of its neighbors—Iran has never initiated a war. Yet it has resolutely and bravely repelled those who have attacked it.The Iranian people harbor no enmity toward other nations, including the people of America, Europe, or neighboring countries. Even in the face of repeated foreign interventions and pressures throughout their proud history, Iranians have consistently drawn a clear distinction between governments and the peoples they govern. This is a deeply rooted principle in Iranian culture and collective consciousness—not a temporary political stance.For this reason, portraying Iran as a threat is neither consistent with historical reality nor with present-day observable facts. Such a perception is the product of political and economic whims of the powerful— the need to manufacture an enemy in order to justify pressure, maintain military dominance, sustain the arms industry, and control strategic markets. In such an environment, if a threat does not exist, it is invented.Within this same framework, the United States has concentrated the largest number of its forces, bases, and military capabilities around Iran—a country that, at least since the founding of the United States, has never initiated a war. Recent American aggressions launched from these very bases have demonstrated how threatening such a military presence truly is. Naturally, no country confronted with such conditions would forgo strengthening its defensive capabilities. What Iran has done—and continues to do—is a measured response grounded in legitimate self-defense, and by no means an initiation of war or aggression.Relations between Iran and the United States were not originally hostile, and early interactions between the Iranian and American people were not marred with hostility or tension. The turning point, however, was the 1953 coup d’état—an illegal American intervention aimed at preventing the nationalization of Iran’s own resources. That coup disrupted Iran’s democratic process, reinstated dictatorship, and sowed deep distrust among Iranians toward U.S. policies. This distrust deepened further with America’s support for the Shah’s regime, its backing of Saddam Hussein during the imposed war of the 1980s, the imposition of the longest and most comprehensive sanctions in modern history, and ultimately, unprovoked military aggression—twice, in the midst of negotiations—against Iran.Yet all these pressures have failed to weaken Iran. On the contrary, the country has grown stronger in many areas: literacy rates have tripled—from roughly 30% before the Islamic Revolution to over 90% today; higher education has expanded dramatically; significant advances have been achieved in modern technology; healthcare services have improved; and infrastructure has developed at a pace and scale incomparable to the past. These are measurable, observable realities that stand independent of fabricated narratives.At the same time, the destructive and inhumane impact of sanctions, war, and aggression on the lives of the resilient Iranian people must not be underestimated. The continuation of military aggression and recent bombings profoundly affect people’s lives, attitudes, and perspectives. This reflects a fundamental human truth: when war inflicts irreparable harm on lives, homes, cities, and futures, people will not remain indifferent toward those responsible.This raises a fundamental question: Exactly which of the American people’s interests are truly being served by this war? Was there any objective threat from Iran to justify such behavior? Does the massacre of innocent children, the destruction of cancer-treatment pharmaceutical facilities, or boasting about bombing a country “back to the stone ages” serve any purpose other than further damaging the United States’ global standing?Iran pursued negotiations, reached an agreement, and fulfilled all its commitments. The decision to withdraw from that agreement, escalate toward confrontation, and launch two acts of aggression in the midst of negotiations were destructive choices made by the U.S. government—choices that served the delusions of a foreign aggressor.Attacking Iran’s vital infrastructure—including energy and industrial facilities—directly targets the Iranian people. Beyond constituting a war crime, such actions carry consequences that extend far beyond Iran’s borders. They generate instability, increase human and economic costs, and perpetuate cycles of tension, planting seeds of resentment that will endure for years. This is not a demonstration of strength; it is a sign of strategic bewilderment and an inability to achieve a sustainable solution.Is it not also the case that America has entered this aggression as a proxy for Israel, influenced and manipulated by that regime? Is it not true that Israel, by manufacturing an Iranian threat, seeks to divert global attention away from its crimes toward the Palestinians? Is it not evident that Israel now aims to fight Iran to the last American soldier and the last American taxpayer dollar—shifting the burden of its delusions onto Iran, the region, and the United States itself in pursuit of illegitimate interests?Is “America First” truly among the priorities of the U.S. government today?I invite you to look beyond the machinery of misinformation—an integral part of this aggression—and instead speak with those who have visited Iran. Observe the many accomplished Iranian immigrants—educated in Iran—who now teach and conduct research at the world’s most prestigious universities, or contribute to the most advanced technology firms in the West. Do these realities align with the distortions you are being told about Iran and its people?Today, the world stands at crossroads. Continuing along the path of confrontation is more costly and futile than ever before. The choice between confrontation and engagement is both real and consequential; its outcome will shape the future for generations to come. Throughout its millennia of proud history, Iran has outlasted many aggressors. All that remains of them are tarnished names in history, while Iran endures—resilient, dignified, and proud. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The FT reports that Trump threatened to stop weapons for Ukraine unless Europe joined a Hormuz coalition to break the blockade. That's using one geopolitical crisis as a bargaining chip in another — and evidently it worked. The Europeans had been saying the strait situation was "not our war," but after Trump went — reportedly "rather hysterical" according to one official — NATO chief Rutte scrambled to put together a joint statement from France, Germany, and the UK pledging to help with the strait, the report says.This isn't new and came together on March 19, and more countries have signed on since. The real kicker: Trump told Reuters he'd "absolutely" consider withdrawing from NATO entirely. Whether that's a negotiating tactic or genuine intent almost doesn't matter at this point — the uncertainty alone reshapes how every allied capital plans its defense spending and every energy trader prices risk. Watch Starmer's coalition talks with the 35 signatories this week. If there's a credible plan to reopen Hormuz after hostilities end, that's the catalyst for oil to come off the boil. Notably, there was a report today that Europe and other countries were considering sanctions on Iran if it didn't open on the Strait. What the market is increasingly concluding is simple: Trump wants this war to end and the US has an abundance of levers to pull to make that happen. Maybe it's NATO, maybe it's tariffs, maybe it's sanctions against others. There are really no rules and limits to US Presidential power any longer and no one is going to fight too hard for Iran.What's not yet clear is if Iran's Revolutionary Guard will play along and if there's really a deal to be made with them. Ultimately, they have weapons and ships along Iran's 1000 mile coastline are sitting ducks even with escorts. They're still hitting targets all over the Middle East with relative accuracy and an oil tanker is a big target that's much closer.So Trump is getting the benefit of the doubt right now but don't take your eyes off of Iran. Notably, we have seen stocks come off the highs in the past hour or so.Another thing to watch is a letter that Iran's President will issue "to Americans" within the next 30 minutes or so. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The broader market is optimistic about a resolution in Hormuz and Iran despite mediocre and mixed signals from Washington and Tehran. The S&P 500 is up 1.2% in a continued rally from yesterday and it's tough to hang it on any headline.Trump has repeatedly indicate that the US is ready to declare 'mission accomplished' and leave Hormuz for others to clean up. That's not exactly a great sign about reopening.A report today said other countries could threaten Iran with sanctions if they don't reopen but it's hard to imagine that breaking the back of a country that's been hit by 12,000 bombs in the past month.But markets are the world's great filters of information and I think it's worth looking at longer-dated oil contracts. Here is WTI crude contract for December. Today it's testing the lows from the fake headlines from when the US energy secretary said there was an escort through Hormuz.If you take this contract at face value, the price of oil has gone from around $58 to $72. That's material but it's an economic shock. If you zoom out a bit further, oil was around $64 for most of last year so it's only an $8 increase.Compare that chart to May WTI, which hasn't come anywhere near the March 20 low.That difference reflects a market that sees ongoing problems through May deliver but sees them clearing over the remainder of the year. So far stock markets and the economy, you're pricing in a quarter or two of pain followed by a steady improvement afterwards.Now that could obviously be wrong and Iran could blockade the Strait of Hormuz for months but the message from the crude market (and others) is that this is winding down.As a trader, I think you want to consider that possibility and dig into some of the trades that have the most to recoup if that's the case. Today's retail sales data showed the US consumer was in fine shape ahead of this war and this week's consumer confidence didn't show much worry going forward.Trump is also a President that's relentlessly focused on boosting the stock market and no one can forget the rebound after Liberation Day tariffs. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Yesterday, Pres Trump posted on Truth Social:Today, the French Navy Chief is speaking and saying: Number of Chinese vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz not enough to restore normal traffic flowsChina will probably need to engage more directly in the debate and show its impatience on closure of Strait of Hormuz.France's trying to bring several countries together at political level to determine conditions under which the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened in a lasting way.Military would ultimately be needed to monitor Hormuz reopening.No evidence at this stage that Strait of Hormuz has been minedFrench Navy — Current ForcesThe Marine Nationale fields a well-rounded modern fleet centered on the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, the only one of its kind outside the US, carrying Rafale M fighters and E-2C Hawkeye aircraft. Its surface fleet includes FREMM multi-mission frigates, La Fayette-class stealth frigates, and Mistral-class amphibious assault ships. Underwater, France operates Triomphant-class ballistic missile submarines (keeping at least one on patrol at all times for nuclear deterrence) alongside the newer Suffren-class nuclear attack submarines, which are gradually replacing the aging Rubis class.With one of the world's largest Exclusive Economic Zones, the navy maintains permanent deployments across the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean, and Caribbean. It also actively participates in NATO operations and EU maritime missions. On the horizon, the FDI frigates are entering service to bolster the surface fleet, and a next-generation carrier (PANG) is in development to replace the Charles de Gaulle around 2038. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The White House is saying that Pres. Trump is to reiterate 2 – 3 week timetable for the end of the Iran operations.US official adds:Trump to give operational updata on IranTo tout success in achieving goals in Iran.To reiterate the 2-3 week timetable.The president is to address the nation at 9 PM ET.Course how all this ends is anyone's guess. Israel if it had it's way would want it to go on until all of Iran was destroyed with the splinter terrorist groups.Iran doesn’t operate through a single group—it uses a network of proxy and splinter militias across the Middle East, often referred to as part of its broader “Axis of Resistance.”Core Iran-backed groups (primary proxies) Hezbollah (Lebanon) Iran’s most important and longest-standing proxy Highly trained, heavily armed, and politically integrated Hamas (Gaza) Sunni group but receives funding, weapons, and training from Iran Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Gaza) Smaller, but more directly aligned with Iran than Hamas Houthis (Ansar Allah – Yemen) Control large parts of Yemen Use missiles, drones, and maritime attacks Iraq-based splinter militias (most fragmented network) Kataib Hezbollah Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba Badr Organization Often operate under umbrella labels like: “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” Key point: These groups are loosely coordinated but semi-independent, which is why they are often considered splinter networks. Syria-based militias Liwa Fatemiyoun (Afghan fighters backed by Iran) Liwa Zainebiyoun (Pakistani fighters) Other Shia militias supporting the Assad government Many are extensions of Iraqi or Hezbollah-linked forces.Lebanon & regional extensions Hezbollah-affiliated units operating beyond Lebanon Syria Iraq Broader regional logistics and finance networks Yemen (Houthis and sub-groups) Houthis are the main force, but include: Local tribal factions and sub-units Increasing coordination with Iranian and Hezbollah support How Iran manages the network Coordinated primarily through the IRGC Quds Force Provides: Weapons Training Funding Strategic direction Big picture takeaway Iran’s approach is decentralized: Core proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis) Plus numerous splinter militias (especially in Iraq and Syria) This structure allows: Plausible deniability Multiple pressure points across the region Flexibility in escalation without direct confrontation Bottom line The most recognizable Iran-backed groups are: Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis The real fragmentation comes from: Iraqi and Syrian militias, which function as splinter groups with varying degrees of independence Together, they form a distributed network that plays a central role in Middle East conflicts This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate from their model has dipped to 1.9% from 2.0%. In their own words:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 1.9 percent on April 1, down from 2.0 percent on March 23. After this morning’s retail sales release from the US Census Bureau and this morning’s manufacturing report from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 1.9 percent to 1.5 percent.The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab for a list of upcoming releases.The Atlanta Fed model for GDP takes the data for the quarter and projects a growth GDP in "real time". As more more data becomes available, the model should mimic the growth for the quarter. However, last quarter, the Atlanta Fed forecas growth at 3.0%, while the actual advanced reading came in much lower at 1.4%. Private economists had forecast and average GDP gain of 2.8%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD moved higher with the risk-on flows yesterday. However, the price did run into some topside resistance that stalled the pair. IN the post and video, I referenced that area:...the real test was just ahead. The price remains below a key swing area between 0.6896 and 0.69088 – a prior support zone that broke last week. That area now acts as resistance. A move back above would signal a return to the broader trading ranges suggest a break lower may have been a false move.In trading today, the pair pushed higher in the early Asian session before rotating lower in a corrective move. The pullback found support at 0.6899, just above a key swing area low. Holding that level was important—it gave buyers the technical confidence to step back in and reassert control.Since then, momentum has shifted back to the upside. The price has moved above the 200-hour moving average at 0.6932, extending to an intraday high of 0.6962. However, that rally stalled just short of the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March high at 0.6969, leaving that level as a key upside barometer. Buyers still need a break above it to signal a stronger shift in control.On the downside, the 200-hour moving average now serves as close support. As long as the price holds above that level, the bias tilts more favorably toward further upside probing. A sustained move higher should lead to at least a test of the 38.2% retracement, and a break above would open the door for additional gains toward the 0.7000 natural resistance and the 50% midpoint near 0.7010.Bottom line: Buyers are back in control above the 200-hour MA, but the real test comes at 0.6969. Break it, and momentum can build further to the upside. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview? Technology & Semiconductors: The technology sector, especially semiconductors, led today's market rally. Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) showed brisk gains of 1.03% and 3.65%, respectively. Intel (INTC) stood out with an impressive rise of 8.59%, bolstering investor confidence in the semiconductor space.? Energy Sector: Struggling to keep up, the energy sector experienced significant losses. ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) were notably down by 4.67% and 4.14%, respectively, as investors worried over declining oil prices and increased regulatory pressures.? Consumer & Communication: The consumer cyclical and communication services sectors showed notable resilience. Amazon (AMZN) climbed 1.24%, while Google (GOOG) surged 2.59%, reflecting strong investor sentiment and potential growth optimism.? Financial Sector: Performance was mixed here, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) inching up by 0.11% and 1.43% respectively, while other financials faced minor setbacks.Market Mood and TrendsThe market mood was predominantly optimistic today, buoyed by significant gains in the tech sector. Investors seem to be banking on a tech comeback despite broader economic uncertainties. However, the energy sector's downturn reflects ongoing volatility and sector-specific challenges.Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should consider diversifying their portfolios to leverage emerging trends. Emphasizing technology and communication service stocks could offer growth potential, while caution is advised in energy investments given current challenges. Monitoring real-time developments and sector shifts will be crucial.Visit InvestingLive.com for further insights and updates on the evolving market landscape. Stay informed to strategically navigate the market's opportunities and risks. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are extending higher today, building on yesterday’s upside momentum that followed the gap open off Friday’s cycle low into the close. The recovery rally has now pushed both indices into a key technical crossroads—testing their respective falling 100-hour moving averages. The bulls and bears are fighting at the key technical levels.For the S&P 500, the 100-hour moving average comes in at 6576.41, closely aligned with the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the January 28 all-time high. The price briefly pushed above both levels, reaching a high of 6585.18, but has since rotated back lower and is currently trading just below at 6574.89. That area now stands as a critical near-term barometer—stay below, and sellers can lean; move back above, and buyers regain more control.For the NASDAQ, the 100-hour moving average is at 21862.70, with the 38.2% retracement higher at 21950.09. The index reached a high of 21866.29, testing the moving average, but like the S&P, has pulled back and is trading below at 21837. The inability—so far—to extend above these resistance levels keeps the upside momentum in check.Bottom line: Both indices have rebounded sharply, but are now stalling against key technical resistance. The 100-hour moving averages are the battleground. A sustained move above would shift the bias more firmly in favor of the bulls, while holding below keeps the door open for sellers to reassert control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Reuters is citing a source briefed on the matter:The VP has been talking to 'intermediaries' about the Iran conflict as recently as TuesdayTrump directed Vance to communicate privately that he is open to a ceasefire as long as certain US demands met including reopening HormuzVance delivered a 'stern' message that Trump was impatient and warned of growing pressure on Iran's infrastructure unless Iran makes a dealThe headlines continue to point to some kind of stalemate. Trump keeps saying Iran wants a ceasefire but this report indicates that it's Trump that wants a ceasefire.Separately (and probably not coincidentally), Axios reports that three US officials said discussions are taking place about a possible ceasefire with Iran in return for the reopening of the Hormuz strait. The officials said it is unclear if a deal can be reached.I think what's overwhelmingly clear is that the US wants the war to end and is looking for a way to make that happen. They seemingly have Israel on board as well.Iran seems to be angling for more than a ceasefire and a lasting peace instead. That might be splitting hairs but it's also not clear who is in charge of Iran and what their next moves might be. It's also curious that the US is sailing another aircraft carrier into the region and has ground troops ready to invade.In all likelihood, Iran takes some kind of deal because leaders there have guns to their heads and they surely don't want to risk the destruction of their energy industry. At the same time, it's not clear what remaining offensive capabilities they have and their willingness to block Hormuz.In any case, it's a pivotal moment and the market is clearly optimistic. We'll see if that optimism is well placed or not by late Monday.This remains the deadline Trump set:“As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time."WTI crude oil is down $2.50 to $98.88 and the S&P 500 is at a session high up 0.9%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +6926KGasoline -586K vs -1876K expDistillates -2111K vs -586K expRefinery utilization -0.8% vs +1.5% expThe API data from late yesterday:Crude +10263KGasoline -3209KDistillates -1040KThe big build is negative for oil and it's the second one in a row.That's hard to believe given what's happening in the Middle East. In terms of price action, WTI is down $2.38 to $99.02 as it looks like Trump is about to announce that he's going to leave Iran tonight. Eyes remain on the war.The Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) is published every Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical arm of the Department of Energy. It provides a comprehensive snapshot of U.S. petroleum supply and demand, covering crude oil and refined product inventories, refinery inputs and utilization rates, imports, exports, production, and an estimate of products supplied (a proxy for consumption). The report covers the 50 states and the District of Columbia, with data broken out by Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) Districts. It is one of the most market-moving data releases in global energy trading, frequently triggering sharp intraday swings in crude oil and product futures.Recent weeks have been dominated by the fallout from the war in the Middle East, which has disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz and sent Brent crude surging from roughly $62 at the start of the year to above $90 by mid-March. Against that backdrop, U.S. commercial crude inventories posted five consecutive weekly builds through March 20, rising to 456.2 million barrels—though still about 2% below the five-year average. The build for the week ending March 20 was particularly large at 6.9 million barrels, far above expectations for a 0.5 million barrel increase. Cushing, Oklahoma hub stocks rose by 3.4 million barrels that week, the most since January 2023. On the product side, gasoline inventories drew down steadily through March, while distillate stocks were mixed. Refinery utilization climbed to 92.9% by mid-March as seasonal maintenance wound down. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior month 0.0% revised from +0.1% DetailsSales: $1.9746T in January; +0.3% m/m (vs Dec 2025), +4.5% y/yInventories: $2.6750T; -0.1% m/m vs 0.1 estimate, +1.0% y/yInventories/Sales Ratio: 1.35, down from 1.40 in Jan 2025 At its core, the Census Business Inventories report is a pulse check on demand vs. supply across the U.S. economy—and right now, the signal is relatively constructive.Fundamentally, here’s what the latest data is showing:Demand is holding up: Sales are still growing (+0.3% m/m, +4.5% y/y), which tells you end-demand hasn’t rolled over. Consumers and businesses are still spending at a steady pace. Inventory drawdown (slight): Inventories dipped -0.1% on the month, which suggests firms are not overbuilding stock. Instead, they’re letting demand absorb existing inventories. Lean positioning by businesses: The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.35 (from 1.40 last year), meaning companies are carrying less inventory relative to sales—a sign of improved balance. No signs of excess supply stress: When inventories build too fast relative to sales, it often signals weak demand and future production cuts. That’s not what we’re seeing here. Potential tailwind for production: Leaner inventories can eventually lead to restocking cycles, which support manufacturing output and GDP if demand remains stable. Bottom lineThe data is telling a “steady demand, controlled supply” story. Businesses are not overextended on inventory, and sales continue to grind higher. That combination keeps the economic backdrop stable-to-positive, and if demand holds, it opens the door for future restocking and production gains rather than cutbacks.Caveats... the data is from January so it is old data. The war and its impact on the economy. The war started on February 28th. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 52.5Prices paid 78.3 vs 73.0 expected (Prior was 70.5)Employment 48.7 vs 48.8 priorNew orders 53.5 vs 55.8 priorThis prices paid number is worrisome but not surprising.US manufacturing spent most of 2025 in contraction. The ISM PMI slipped to 47.9 in December 2025, its lowest level since October 2024 and the third consecutive monthly decline. Production and inventories pulled back, and employment continued to contract, though modest improvements in new orders and backlogs offered faint encouragement. Price pressures remained elevated, with the prices paid subindex holding at 58.5.January 2026 delivered a dramatic reversal. The PMI surged to 52.6, far above the 48.5 consensus, marking the first expansion in twelve months and the strongest reading since 2022. New orders jumped nearly ten points to 57.1 and production rose to 55.9, though ISM cautioned that some of the rebound reflected post-holiday restocking and preemptive buying ahead of anticipated tariff-related price increases.February moderated slightly to 52.4 but still beat expectations of 51.8, confirming a second consecutive month of expansion. New orders and production growth slowed but remained solid. Employment and inventories stayed in contraction territory. The most notable development was a sharp acceleration in input prices—the prices paid subindex surged to 70.5, the highest since June 2022—driven by steel, aluminum, and tariff-related cost pressures. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, based on survey responses from purchasing and supply executives at over 400 industrial companies across 18 U.S. industries. Unlike the S&P Global PMI, which covers only private firms, the ISM draws from the broader NAICS classification system and is one of the oldest and most widely followed leading indicators of U.S. economic health. The headline PMI is a composite of five diffusion indices—new orders (30%), production (25%), employment (20%), supplier deliveries (15%), and inventories (10%)—with readings above 50 indicating expansion. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 52.4Today's March release showed the PMI rising to 52.3 from 51.6 in February, marking the eighth consecutive month above the 50.0 threshold and pointing to a moderate and accelerating pace of expansion. Both output and new orders posted solid gains, supported in part by precautionary safety stock building as firms sought to lock in supply and prices following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. However, growth was principally driven by domestic demand, as international sales continued to decline under the weight of tariffs and shipping disruptions.The conflict's impact was most visible on the cost and supply side. Input price inflation surged to its highest level since August, fueled by rising energy and fuel costs alongside ongoing tariff-related pressures on aluminum and steel. Factory gate price inflation hit a seven-month high as manufacturers passed on costs where possible. Supplier delivery times deteriorated at the sharpest rate since October 2022, with the war exacerbating existing shipping and port delays. Finished goods inventories fell for the first time in eight months as firms shipped directly from stock to compensate for production delays.Despite the pickup in activity, firms were cautious on hiring—staffing levels were broadly unchanged, with some companies opting not to replace departing workers. Business confidence remained positive but edged slightly lower, with energy prices and tariffs cited as key risks to the outlook.For background, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI is compiled from survey responses from purchasing managers at around 600 American manufacturers, stratified by sector and company size based on GDP contributions. Data are collected in the second half of each month. The headline PMI is a weighted average of five subindices—new orders, output, employment, supplier delivery times, and stocks of purchases—with readings above 50 signaling expansion.Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence “Faster growth of output in March points to encouraging resilience for US manufacturing in the face of the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Business confidence regarding output in the year ahead has also so far held up well. This sustained resilience in part reflects reduced concerns over government policies such as tariffs, but also indicates that producers anticipate only a short-term and modest impact from the war, which is clearly uncertain. “It remains early days in terms of the impact of the conflict, and a sharp rise in prices and delivery delays has cast a cloud over the outlook, threatening to drive inflation higher, dampen demand and throttle supply chains. Factory input costs have already jumped higher on the back of surging oil prices and supplier delays have become more widespread than at any time since October 2022, linked to the war exacerbating existing shipping, haulage and port delays. “Some manufacturers are hence reporting stock building as a precaution against future price rises or supply shortages, and hiring has almost stalled in order to reduce staffing costs, underscoring the growing concern about how the war might cause problems for factories in the coming weeks. If price pressures and supply delays persist, demand, employment and production capabilities will inevitably start to be more seriously affected.”Resilience is a nice theme to build on. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD extended above a key swing area between 1.3924 and 1.3937 (see post yesterday), pushing toward the next upside target zone between 1.3971 and 1.3994. The rally reached a high of 1.3966—just short of that next resistance band—before stalling and rotating back to the downside.By the close, the price had fallen back below the 1.3924–1.3937 swing area, and selling pressure has continued into today. The pair has now broken below the 100-hour moving average at 1.38947 and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the November 2025 high to the January low, which comes in at 1.3888. That break shifts the near-term bias back to the downside.Those two levels—the 100-hour MA (1.38947) and the 61.8% retracement (1.3888)—now act as risk-defining resistance. As long as the price stays below, sellers remain in control and further downside probing is likely following last week’s sharp rally.On the downside, the next key target comes in at the 38.2% retracement of the move up from last week’s low at 1.3852. A move below that level, followed by a break of the nearby swing level at 1.3844, would give sellers more confidence and open the door for a deeper correction.Conversely, if the 1.3852–1.3844 support zone holds, the current move lower can be viewed as a plain-vanilla correction within the broader bullish trend.Key levels to watch:Resistance: 1.3888 (61.8%), 1.38947 (100-hour MA) Support: 1.3852 (38.2%), 1.3844 (swing level) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 51.0Today's March release showed the headline index falling to exactly 50.0, down from 51.0 in February, signaling a stagnation of manufacturing activity. Production declined for the first time this year, dragged down in part by slower delivery of inputs linked to supply chain disruptions from the war in the Middle East. New orders fell modestly, with tariffs on trade with the United States continuing to suppress demand—export volumes contracted for the fourteenth consecutive month and at a marked pace. Firms drew down existing inventories rather than placing new orders, and purchasing activity contracted marginally as a result.On the price front, input cost inflation ticked up to its highest level since August, driven by rising fuel prices and supplier charges tied to the Middle East conflict. Manufacturers passed on higher costs where possible, though output charge inflation actually softened to a three-month low. Employment fell marginally for the first time in three months, with some firms restructuring and scaling back capacity to match weaker order books. Business confidence regarding the year-ahead outlook slipped to a three-month low and remained well below its historical average, weighed down by uncertainty around both tariffs and the broader global impact of the conflict.Commenting on the latest survey results, Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Canada’s manufacturing sector again experienced subdued performance during March. Production declined marginally and new orders were down modestly, in part linked to tariffs on trade with the neighbouring United States. “Firms also noted that high prices were a problem for clients, but with costs rising sharply again amid supply chain disruption and increased fuel prices stemming from the war in the Middle East, manufacturers saw little choice but to increase their own charges. “The conflict in the Middle East, which had a relatively muted impact on the Canadian manufacturing sector compared to regions like Europe in March, has understandably raised the level of uncertainty in the outlook. With tariffs also still a concern for many firms, confidence regarding production in the year ahead fell to a three-month low and remained way below its average level.”The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI is compiled from responses to questionnaires sent to purchasing managers at around 400 Canadian manufacturers, stratified by sector and workforce size based on GDP contributions. A reading above 50 signals expansion from the prior month, while below 50 indicates contraction. The PMI is a weighted composite of five subindices: new orders (30%), output (25%), employment (20%), supplier delivery times (15%), and stocks of purchases (10%). It is one of the most widely followed leading indicators of Canadian industrial health. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump spoke with Reuters in an interview:Does not care about nuclear material, will watch via satelliteWill express 'my disgust' with NATO in speech and says he is absolutely considering withdrawingIran will not have a nuclear weapon, nor do they want oneWe have some more targets left. If we have to, we will do spot hitsWe're going to be out of Iran pretty quickly, won't give timelineWe've had full regime changeSo this is the communication strategy: Claim a win, say there was regime change and blame any problems on NATO. Today's speech will be part of that PR campaign.In terms of NATO, the President can't unilaterally withdraw from NATO, it takes a two-thirds approval from the Senate and approval from the House. It's also prohibited to use any federal funds to facilitate a withdrawal. However, in terms of the US coming to anyone's defense in NATO, the President can simply ignore any attack on a NATO member (this was always the case) and the mutual defense treaty has always required members to take "such action as it deems necessary" if an ally is attacked.In essence, while Congress has "locked the door" to keep the US inside the building legally, the President still holds the keys to the "lights and heat."The bigger question here is why leave at all? The President has been successful in driving spending from allies higher but this move makes me wonder if Greeland and the Panama Canal or more are back on the table (or never left). This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

War shocks have increased risks to economy and inflationHe can see scenarios of both hiking and cutting ratesMon pol currently at the low end of neutral (I think he means top of neutral range)Supply shocks carry greater inflation risks in current environmentTariffs are still inflation driver but should waneSays he's cautious about looking through energy shockBaseline case is good growth, moderating inflation and stable employmentSees unfavorable risks for employment and inflationDoesn't see stress from private creditThese comments are very much in-line with the consensus right now. The market is trying to figure out what will happen with the war but futures are pricing in a roughly 30% chance of a rate cut. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF has turned sharply lower after failing at a key topside resistance target defined by the upper channel trendline and prior highs from January 15 near 0.8041. That rejection shifted momentum, with the pair rotating back to the downside.In the process, the price has broken back below the 200-day moving average at 0.79438, increasing the bearish bias, and is now testing the lower boundary of the channel near 0.7903. Just below that level sits a tight cluster of technical support, including the rising 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.7894 and the 100-day moving average at 0.7888.That 0.7888–0.7903 zone is now a critical battleground. Buyers are leaning against it on the first test, helping to stall the decline. However, if that support cluster gives way, it would likely force buyers to step aside and open the door for sellers to take greater control and push the pair lower. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.