After Fed chair Warsh's shift in stance on forward guidance in response to the central bank's reaction function, the FOMC meeting minutes will arguably take on more importance than it did before. Warsh didn't offer much of anything in kicking the can down the road. As such, a closer look at the discussions during the meeting and what key triggers may point to another rate hike will be deeply scrutinised.As a reminder, we already know that Fed policymakers Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari dissented in favour of a 25 bps rate hike. However, the key question now is how much backing did they actually get (especially from non-voters) among their peers?A lot will ride on key phrasing of certain views expressed by the Fed, whether it includes "several", "some", "a few", or "many" members sharing that perspective.Ultimately, we know that the majority view is one that supported a hold on interest rates to at least the next meeting in September. And in all likelihood, that will arguably be the key takeaway from the minutes today. That being reflective of a more wait-and-see and meeting-by-meeting approach.But still, it doesn't mean that we should not be prepared for any potential surprises or hints that could lead to a better indication of what the Fed will do next month.As things stand, Fed funds futures show that the odds of a rate hike in September are at ~31%. So, it is not to say that there is a very convincing narrative that is tiding over markets at the moment. And that is even with some softer data points at the start of August.But even if there won't be any firm signals, we can at least try to identify certain triggers in which Fed policymakers are looking at for clues on their threshold to raise rates again next.Citi notes that:"The FOMC minutes should largely reinforce what is already known: a divided Committee, including three dissents in favour of raising rates. That said, the discussion will likely feel somewhat stale given that it predates the recent run of softer data, which has shifted the policy narrative in a more dovish direction."Meanwhile, BofA adds to that in saying:"The July FOMC minutes will be stale because the soft July jobs and inflation data since the Fed meeting have considerably reduced market pricing of hikes. Still, we will be looking to get a sense of how many FOMC participants (besides the three dissenters) wanted a hike or would at least have been willing to go along with one. We're also curious about the committee's thresholds for a September move, though we wouldn't expect anything too specific on this front." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The wage growth and wage outlook have remained moderate so farNo clear signs of second-round effectsKeeping inflation expectations anchored will be essential to ensure this remains the caseThere's nothing major from his remarks here. The ECB still looks poised to act again in September to better position themselves for further rate hikes if needed, should second-round effects start to materialise.As mentioned before, the ECB had already cut interest rates down to roughly neutral territory before this latest adjustment cycle. And even with another rate hike to follow, the deposit facility rate will only go back up to 2.50%. At that level, it is arguably deemed to be only marginally restrictive.And so if the ECB were to really have to deal with an inflation problem, there will be many more rate hikes to follow that up - especially in the case of dealing with potential second-round effects.For some context, traders are pricing in ~90% odds of a rate hike for September next with ~58 bps of rate hikes priced in by June next year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

July CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y expectedPrior +2.6%July core CPI +2.6% vs +2.5% y/y expectedPrior +2.6%The headline figure is in-line with estimates but core annual inflation is seen holding steady in July at 2.6%, as it was back in June.As mentioned in the preview, the rise in energy prices is what mostly contributed to the jump in headline annual inflation. The rise in prices comes after a change in the Ofgem price cap in July, with households estimated to be paying £221 on average more on their energy bill.Meanwhile, services inflation is seen easing slightly to 3.4% in July - down from 3.6% in June. That largely stems from a smaller rise in air fares this year (+11.7% between June and July 2026), compared to the the year before (+30.2% between June and July 2025). ONS notes that the downward effect from air fares came almost entirely from European routes, where prices fell by 4.3% compared with a 38% rise in July 2025.Food price inflation also eased in July, reflecting a fall to 1.3% from 1.7% in the month before. However, goods price inflation is seen pushing back up above 2% with the July estimate seen at 2.2% - up from 1.7% in June. The stronger jump there is what is keeping core prices more sticky in the latest report here.Overall, this is not likely to push the BOE into taking any hasty actions in September still but it definitely leaves the door open for perhaps another move by year-end.GBP/USD is up 0.1% on the day to 1.3541 currently, not all too much changed from the report. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Global non-bank funder Bizcap has officially launched in the US, expanding its international footprint and bringing its proven funding model to one of the world’s largest small business markets.Already operating across Australia, the UK, New Zealand, Singapore, Europe and Canada, Bizcap has supported more than 100,000 businesses worldwide and provided $5 billion in funding. The US launch marks a significant milestone in the company’s global growth strategy and reinforces its mission to make business funding faster, simpler and more accessible, with groundbreaking cost of funds launching especially for the US market. With a reputation for fast, adaptable business funding, Bizcap is bringing its proven approach to the US market, making it easier for small businesses to access capital when timing matters most. Businesses can apply in minutes, receive approvals in as little as three hours and, if eligible, access funding the same day. With eligibility requirements as low as $20,000 in monthly revenue, Bizcap is opening the door to a wider range of small businesses than traditional funders typically serve.As part of its launch, Bizcap US has introduced its Line of Capital (LOC) range, offering one of its most successful funding solutions to American businesses. Eligible businesses can access a revolving facility of up to $2 million, providing ongoing access to working capital whenever it's needed. The range includes Line of Capital (LOC) Ultra, designed for businesses that pay quickly. With no setup fee and a factor rate from 1.02 (fixed funding cost) for the first four weeks, LOC Ultra rewards businesses that move fast, giving them an efficient, lower-cost way to access funding on demand. Whether managing seasonal cash flow, investing in growth or responding to unexpected opportunities, businesses can draw on that capital when they need it, without reapplying each time.“Small businesses are the backbone of every economy, yet too many still struggle to access the funding they need to grow,”said Albert Gahfi, Global Co-CEO of Bizcap. “Bizcap has built a proven funding model that has helped more than 100,000 businesses across multiple international markets access capital quickly and with greater flexibility. We've seen that model deliver real results around the world, and we're confident it will have the same impact for American small businesses. “Bringing Bizcap to the US is an exciting milestone, and we’re looking forward to helping more business owners access the funding they need to grow.”Business owners continue to face increasing pressure from rising costs, cash flow challenges and tighter funding conditions. Bizcap’s technology-driven approach is designed to provide a faster alternative to traditional financing, helping businesses access funding with streamlined application processes and faster decisions.“The challenges facing small businesses are remarkably consistent around the world,”said Zalman Blachman, Global Co-CEO of Bizcap.“Too many small businesses struggle to access funding through traditional channels, despite having ambitious plans for growth. We believe business owners deserve a faster, more flexible alternative that looks beyond a single credit score and helps them access capital when it can make the biggest difference. Line of Capital Ultra reflects what we've learned globally: business owners who move fast want to be rewarded for it. It's become one of our most popular products internationally, and we're confident US businesses will feel the same.”The US represents the latest chapter in Bizcap’s international expansion, with the company continuing to invest in technology, products and local expertise to improve access to funding for small businesses around the world.Time matters. Small businesses can check their eligibility at bizcapfunding.com and get a funding decision in as little as three hours.About BizcapBizcap https://www.bizcapfunding.com/ is a global non-bank business funder offering fast, flexible financing to SMBs in Australia, the US, the UK, New Zealand, Singapore, Europe and Canada. Founded in 2019, Bizcap empowers businesses by offering approvals in as little as three hours, with same-day funding available. Bizcap has funded more than 100,000 SMBs worldwide, totaling $5 billion globally, while holding a 4.8/5 Trustpilot rating. This article was written by FM Contributors at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one set of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. As things stand, buyers are continuing to try for an upside break but is falling short of firmly breaching the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing lower from April to June. That key level is seen at 1.1586. So, the expiries above will add another defensive layer in keeping price action more contained below or in and around the key technical level for now.The dollar has been trading fairly mixed this week but might see firmer direction after the FOMC meeting minutes later in the day.But all else being equal, the expiries here should at least help to keep any upside momentum in check for the most part unless the dollar falls off. The drop in bond yields yesterday definitely did not help in delivering a more coherent picture across broader markets this week. So, it is pretty much a case of traders still figuring things out.Looking to tomorrow though, there will be much larger option expiries to be wary about - especially for EUR/USD. So, that will be something to consider too as we look to the second half of the week.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The main focus will be on the UK CPI report though, with that coming in hot and fresh. As for the Eurozone CPI report, it will be the final estimate for July. So, that typically isn't really a market mover as the numbers don't tend to deviate much from the initial readings.The UK inflation figures will be of much interest, as it will play into how markets take to the BOE outlook in the final few months of the year. The inflation pulse will carry more weight compared to the labour market data from yesterday. So, that will make the data release today much more important.Headline annual inflation is estimated to see a rebound from the June low of 2.6% (unrounded 2.65%) to 2.9% in July. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is estimated to dip slightly to 2.5% (unrounded 2.52%) - compared to the June reading of 2.6% (unrounded 2.57%). The core estimate if seen thereabouts, will keep close by to the BOE's own forecast of 2.55%.The pick up in headline inflation is once again due to the swing in energy prices. The rise in the Ofgem price cap for Q3 will also be part and parcel of that, so that is likely to boost energy price inflation. In turn, that will also lead to a boost to headline inflation.As for services inflation, it is expected to remain sticky but reflect a decline to 3.4% in July (compared to 3.6% in June). Some analysts are pointing to base effects in air fares with some also expecting the government’s Great British Summer savings policy to put a drag on prices for recreational and catering services. On the latter though, the range of calls are either for it to not have any material impact to it being a 0.1% to 0.2% drag on headline inflation.Barring any major surprises, the numbers shouldn't change the BOE outlook all too much at the end of the day. Traders are pricing in ~78% odds of no change for September with the next decision in November being more of a coin flip.So unless inflation unexpectedly threatens a surge back to 3% or higher, the BOE can rest a bit easier today ahead of the upcoming policy decision next month.As for the Eurozone inflation figures, they will likely just reaffirm what we already know from the preliminary report: Euro area inflation nudges up in July, keeps the pressure on the ECBThe only difference is that pricing for a September rate hike has firmed in recent weeks, with the odds showing ~91% now. That comes after some recent hawkish commentary from the ECB in posturing for the next move. Adding to that, higher energy prices and recent US-Iran developments are just putting more pressure on policymakers to make their final move. From last week: ECB poised to deliver another rate hike in September - poll This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The critical chart for crypto as Bitcoin ranges between $64K and $65KBitcoin spot is trading inside a narrow but important daily decision range between roughly $64,085 and $65,050. These levels are the previous month's point of control and value area high. A daily close outside this band could provide the next meaningful directional clue, while two consecutive closes would offer stronger confirmation.Key takeaways for Bitcoin and crypto tradersImmediate range: Bitcoin is caught between $64,085 and $65,050.Bullish clue: A daily close above $65,050 would strengthen the recovery and the possible bull-flag interpretation.Bearish clue: A daily close below $64,085 would weaken the recovery and bring lower support back into focus.Confirmation matters: One close is an early signal. Two consecutive daily closes outside the range would reduce, but not remove, the risk of a false breakout.Wider crypto impact: Bitcoin often guides crypto risk appetite, but Ethereum and altcoins still need to confirm the same direction on their own charts.As shown above on my daily BTCUSDT chart, Bitcoin spot trades between the previous month's point of control near $64,085 and value area high near $65,050, with the upper boundary of a descending pitchfork also nearby.In addition to the above chart, I was previously tracking Bitcoin's attempt to build accepted value above the crucial $64,000 to $64,095 Point of Control, where buyers must prove genuine value repair rather than just temporary stabilization off the $62,380 monthly Value Area Low. This digital asset consolidation unfolds against a volatile macro backdrop now, as Eamonn at investingLive.com reported on the broad risk-off selloff across Asian equities that triggered a KOSPI circuit breaker amid Middle East geopolitical escalations and rising crude prices. At the same time, semiconductor market structure remains in focus after Eamonn also highlighted that Beijing is easing restrictions on Nvidia H200 chip shipments for top tech firms, setting up key order-flow catalysts across the broader tech and AI hardware space. The previous report is a bearish sentiment for crypto while the news from Bejing is slightly bullish for 'risk-on' assets. But as most of you know, I am mainly watcing what price does. So let's dive into it.Why is the $64K-$65K Bitcoin range so important?The wider grey range on the chart still matters, but it is too broad to provide the most useful short-term signal. The smaller yellow zone between approximately $64,000 and $65,000 is where the more immediate battle is taking place.The lower boundary, near $64,085, is the previous month's point of control. This is the price at which the greatest amount of trading activity took place within that monthly profile. It can act like a magnet because the market previously found substantial agreement there.The upper boundary, near $65,050, is the previous month's value area high. This marks the upper edge of the zone where most of the previous month's volume was transacted.These are not magical prices. They matter because they represent areas where many traders and trading systems may reassess whether Bitcoin is still trading inside accepted value or is beginning to establish value somewhere new.What would make the Bitcoin chart more bullish?The first bullish tell would be a daily candle closing above $65,050. That would matter for two reasons.First, Bitcoin would be closing above the previous month's value area high, suggesting that buyers are trying to establish acceptance above an area that previously contained most trading activity.Second, the same move could push price beyond the upper boundary of the descending pitchfork shown on the chart. This is why I am watching the formation as a possible bull flag. However, it should not be treated as a confirmed bull flag before price actually breaks out and holds above it.If Bitcoin closes above $65,050, the next question is whether the following daily candle can remain above the range. Two consecutive closes would make the breakout more credible and bring the wider resistance area around $66,600-$67,300 back into focus.What this means: A breakout is more convincing when price does not merely spike above resistance, but closes above it and continues to defend the level afterward.What would make the Bitcoin chart more bearish?A daily close below $64,085 would be the first warning that the latest recovery is failing to hold the previous month's main high-volume price.That would not guarantee an immediate drop. Bitcoin could still reclaim the level quickly. But if the market records two consecutive daily closes below $64,085, the bearish case becomes more credible and attention may shift back toward lower parts of the broader range.The previous month's value area low near $62,380 would then become a more relevant downside reference. It should be treated as an area to monitor, not as a promised target, because Bitcoin can still react at intermediate support before reaching it.Why daily closes matter more than intraday moves hereBitcoin trades around the clock, and visible levels often attract brief stop-runs in both directions. Price can move above $65,050 or below $64,085 during the day and still finish the session back inside the range.That is why I am more interested in the daily close than in the first intraday break. One close outside the yellow zone would be the first directional tell. Two consecutive closes would provide significantly higher confidence that the market is accepting the breakout rather than producing another trap.This is a confirmation filter, not a certainty filter. A strong move can still reverse after two closes, while waiting for confirmation can also mean entering or reacting later. The advantage is that it asks the market to provide evidence before a trader forms a stronger directional view.Why this Bitcoin chart matters for the wider crypto marketBitcoin remains the main liquidity and sentiment reference for the crypto market. If it establishes value above $65,050, that could improve risk appetite across Ethereum and higher-beta altcoins. If it loses $64,085 and begins rotating lower, weaker crypto assets may come under greater pressure.Still, Bitcoin's breakout should not be treated as automatic confirmation for every token. Traders and investors should check whether the asset they follow is also breaking its own resistance, holding support and showing improving participation.This tighter range also builds on our earlier Bitcoin analysis explaining why reclaiming $64,000 was so important. Bitcoin has now returned to that area, but the daily chart shows that reclaiming a round number and establishing acceptance above the full $64,085-$65,050 band are not the same thing.What should crypto traders watch next?The critical question is simple: does Bitcoin produce a daily close above or below the yellow range?Above $65,050: The recovery strengthens, and the possible bull flag becomes more credible.Inside $64,085-$65,050: Bitcoin remains in a decision zone where chasing short-term moves carries a higher risk of whipsaw.Below $64,085: The recovery weakens, and lower support becomes more relevant.The wider grey range can wait. For the next directional clue in crypto, I am watching the smaller yellow range and, most importantly, where Bitcoin closes. This is a scenario map rather than a guarantee, so traders should use position sizes and risk limits appropriate to their own strategy.How to know if this Bitcoin analysis is still validThis analysis remains relevant while Bitcoin is trading near or reacting to the $64,085-$65,050 range. If price has already moved far beyond either boundary, the levels should be used to judge whether the breakout is holding or failing, not as a fresh reason to chase the move. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

RBA dep Gov Hauser says inflation is too high, monetary policy needs to bring it downChina eases limits on Nvidia H200 chips as AI race escalates, FT reportsTrump pauses 50% Canada tariffs for 'three day period'UAE-Iran trade halt more significant than US embargo, ex-official saysAustralia Q2 2026 Wage price Index +0.8% q/q (expected +0.8%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7854 (vs. estimate at 6.7421)Update: Oil extends gains to fourth day as Hormuz fighting drags onSouth Korea stock market halt called already as Kospi plungesJapan June Machine Orders +16.9% y/y (expected +10.8%)Canada, US race against midnight tariff deadline as talks continueFund managers pile into stocks, BofA finds. Fund manager bullishness near four-year highNew Zealand Q2 2026 producer price index risesIraq backs new oil export routes to bypass Hormuz Gulf bottleneckPreview: What to watch as July FOMC minutes drop WednesdayMizuho sees BOJ hiking rates faster as weak yen fuels inflation riskIran rejects UAE missile accusation, warns against unfounded claimsOil catch up - prices hit three-week high as Iran vows offensive stance, denies UAE missile claimOil: Private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil draw and huge diesel drawUAE halts all trade and financial dealings with Iran, MoFA official saysTrump is weighing whether to grant Canada a tariff reprieve - PoliticoinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap: US data mixed as Iran headlines and Canada tariffs dominateSummary:UAE formally halted all trade, commercial and financial transactions with Iran; MoFA's Afra Al Hameli confirmed the move amid regional escalationsIran's foreign ministry rejected UAE accusations that it fired missiles at the country, calling the claims unfoundedFrance will expel two Iranian diplomats after French embassy staff in Tehran were detained and allegedly intimidated in JulyOil extended gains into a fourth session in Asia trade on continued Gulf supply uncertaintySouth Korea's KOSPI opened down 5%, widening to 6% and triggering a five-minute sidecar halt on program selling; Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell around 7%Japan's Nikkei fell more than 3%, with Tokyo Electron down 4% and Kioxia down 9%; China also opened lowerRBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said inflation remains too high and further rate hikes are possible if it doesn't ease, though he does not see a recession, only a slowdownJapan's core machinery orders jumped 9.7% month-on-month in June, well above forecasts and the fastest pace since February; annual orders rose 16.9%Australian wages grew 0.8% in the June quarter as expected, with the annual pace holding at 3.2%The US delayed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods by three days after talks in Washington; Carney says "substantial progress" madeBeijing is allowing small H200 chip shipments to Chinese tech firms, with ByteDance and Tencent each receiving around 10,000 units, per the FTJoint US-South Korea military drills are set to be cut by about half following a Trump order, South Korean media reportedAsian markets sold off sharply on Wednesday as escalating tension between the UAE and Iran, together with a fresh diplomatic rupture involving France, added to an already elevated risk backdrop across the region. the drop followed falls on Wall Street. The UAE has formally halted all trade, commercial and financial transactions with Iran, according to Ministry of Foreign Affairs Director of Strategic Communications Afra Al Hameli. The move follows the UAE's earlier allegation that Iran launched missiles against the country, an accusation Iran's foreign ministry has firmly rejected, describing the claims as unfounded and pointing to what it characterised as false flag operations attributed to the US and Israel. Analysts have separately described the trade suspension as a significant blow to Iran given the scale of Dubai's role in Iranian import markets and its function as a financial channel.France added a further layer to the diplomatic strain, announcing it will expel two Iranian diplomats in the coming days after two French embassy staff in Tehran were detained and allegedly intimidated in July.Against that backdrop, oil extended its gains into a fourth consecutive session in Asian trade, continuing a run driven by ongoing uncertainty over the operational status of the Strait of Hormuz.Equity markets bore the brunt of the risk-off move. South Korea's KOSPI index opened down 5%, with the decline widening to 6% within minutes, triggering the exchange's sidecar mechanism and suspending program-driven selling for five minutes. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each fell by around 7%. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped more than 3%, with Tokyo Electron down 4% and Kioxia down 9%. Chinese equities also opened lower.On monetary policy, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reiterated that inflation remains too high and that monetary policy needs to continue reducing demand in the economy. He said further rate hikes remain possible if inflation fails to ease, while noting the Board is not forecasting a recession, only a slowdown, and flagged upside inflation risks as an ongoing concern.On data, Japan's core machinery orders, which exclude volatile items such as ships and electric utilities, jumped 9.7% month-on-month in June, reversing a 12.4% drop the prior month and beating forecasts for a 7.8% rise. It marked the third increase this year and the fastest pace since February, pointing to a broad-based recovery in business investment. On an annual basis, orders rose 16.9%, swinging from a 1.9% decline in May and topping estimates for a 10.8% gain, the fastest annual rise in four months. In Australia, wages grew 0.8% in the June quarter, matching expectations, with the annual pace holding at 3.2%.Elsewhere, the Trump administration agreed to delay planned 50% tariffs on Canadian goods by three days following high-stakes talks in Washington. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a brief statement that substantial progress had been made, though he added that important work remains. The Canadian dollar gained a few points on the news. Separately, Beijing is allowing small shipments of Nvidia's H200 chips to reach leading Chinese technology firms, with ByteDance and Tencent each receiving around 10,000 processors in recent weeks, according to the Financial Times, as China eases restrictions to help its companies compete in the AI race.On the security front, scheduled joint US and South Korean military drills are expected to be cut by roughly half, South Korean media reported Wednesday, following an order from President Trump to substantially reduce US participation in the annual exercises. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Gov Hauser:Inflation is too highMonetary policy needs to bring inflation down, needs to reduce demand in economyNot seeing recession, just slowdownWorried about inflation, upside risks to inflationIf inflation doesnt come down, will have to raise rates again---RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has reiterated that inflation remains too high and that monetary policy needs to keep reducing demand in the economy to bring it back toward target, warning that further rate hikes are still on the table if inflation fails to come down.Hauser said the Board is not forecasting a recession, characterising the current path as a slowdown rather than a sharper downturn, but flagged that upside risks to inflation remain a genuine concern. The comments extend a message he has delivered consistently through 2026: that the RBA's three rate hikes earlier this year, which took the cash rate to 4.35 percent, reflected a judgment that demand was outstripping the economy's supply capacity by more than initially expected, and that acting early limits the eventual cost to unemployment.The remarks land against a backdrop where the Board has now held rates steady for two consecutive meetings, with headline inflation running around 3.8 percent, still above the 2-3 percent target band, and trimmed mean measures proving sticky rather than falling cleanly. Governor Bullock has separately noted that current market pricing for near-term rate cuts runs ahead of the Board's own thinking, and Wednesday's wage data adds a further complication: private sector wage growth has continued to moderate to its slowest pace this cycle, but the Fair Work Commission's larger-than-expected 4.75 percent award wage increase lands in the third quarter and is expected to push wage growth back up.Layered on top of the domestic picture is the external inflation risk from elevated oil prices tied to the ongoing Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption, a factor Hauser and Bullock have both cited as complicating the RBA's task alongside already-excess domestic demand. Hauser's explicit warning that rates could rise again if inflation doesn't ease keeps the Board's tightening bias technically alive, signalling the current pause remains conditional rather than a shift toward an easing cycle.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A loosening of Beijing's own restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chips, even at a small scale, signals that Chinese authorities are prioritising domestic AI competitiveness over previous concerns about reliance on US hardware, a shift that could be read as bullish for Nvidia's addressable market in China if it extends further. The fact that the bulk of an estimated large H200 stockpile is being kept in Hong Kong rather than moved onto the mainland, reportedly due to insufficient local capacity to support the chips, highlights the logistical and infrastructure constraints still shaping how China deploys advanced compute even when policy allows it. For Nvidia and the broader semiconductor supply chain, any signal of renewed Chinese demand access matters given how central China policy has been to swings in chip stocks this year. The move also sits against the backdrop of the US-China tech rivalry, where export controls and countermeasures on both sides continue to shape which chips can move where, and how quickly.--- China is loosening restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chips to help its tech giants keep pace in the AI race, the FT reports.Summary:Beijing is permitting small shipments of Nvidia H200 processors to leading Chinese tech companies, according to the Financial TimesByteDance and Tencent have each received around 10,000 H200 chips in recent weeksThe move is aimed at helping Chinese tech groups catch up with US AI rivalsBeijing is directing companies to keep the majority of their H200 stock in Hong Kong, with total holdings estimated at around 500,000 unitsHong Kong reportedly lacks the capacity to support full deployment of that stockpile China is easing restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chips as the country's leading technology groups push to close the gap with US rivals in the artificial intelligence race, according to the Financial Times.Beijing is now permitting small shipments of the advanced processors to reach top domestic tech firms, with ByteDance and Tencent each having received approximately 10,000 H200 units in recent weeks. The move marks a shift in approach from authorities who have previously restricted access to advanced US chips as part of a broader push toward technological self-sufficiency.Despite the relaxation, Beijing is instructing companies to keep the majority of their H200 holdings in Hong Kong rather than moving them onto the mainland. Total H200 stock held in this way is estimated at around 500,000 units, a substantial stockpile that nonetheless faces a practical constraint: Hong Kong reportedly lacks the data centre and computing infrastructure capacity needed to put that volume of chips to full use.The arrangement points to a policy that is easing in principle but still cautious in practice, allowing Chinese firms limited access to cutting-edge US hardware while keeping the bulk of that capacity offshore, at least for now. The gap between the scale of the stockpile and the infrastructure available to deploy it suggests any meaningful uplift to Chinese AI development from these chips may be gradual rather than immediate, contingent on further build-out of local capacity or a broader loosening of where the chips can be used.The development comes amid an intensifying competition between US and Chinese firms over access to and control of the most advanced AI chips, with export controls, stockpiling strategies and questions over deployment capacity all shaping how quickly either side can translate hardware access into AI capability gains. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump pauses the new tariffs that were due at midnight US Eastern time. Says has a tentative deal. USD/CAD dropped from around 1.3900 to around 1.3880. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Beginning at 12.45 pm Sydney time:0245 GMT / 2245 US Eastern time As background to Hauser today ...The RBA raised the cash rate three times in early 2026, taking it to 4.35 percent, after judging in February that demand was outstripping supply capacity by more than expected. It has since held at that level for two consecutive meetings, most recently on August 11, keeping a conditional pause rather than declaring victory.Inflation remains the sticking point. Headline CPI sits around 3.8 percent as of the June quarter, still above the 2-3 percent target band, and trimmed mean measures have been sticky rather than falling cleanly. Deputy Governor Hauser has repeatedly stressed the Board still has "work to do," describing price growth as far too high even as some relief has come through from softer fuel costs. He's leaned on Phillips curve logic to justify the early, front-loaded hikes, arguing that acting promptly when the economy sits on the steeper part of the curve limits the eventual unemployment cost.Two live complications sit alongside the domestic inflation fight. First, wages: Wednesday's WPI data showed private sector wage growth continuing to moderate to its slowest pace this cycle, at 3.2 percent annually, giving the Board some room, though the Fair Work Commission's larger-than-expected 4.75 percent award wage increase lands in Q3 and is expected to push WPI back up. Second, the external shock: Governor Bullock has flagged the Middle East conflict and its effect on oil prices as a genuine supply-side complication layered on top of already-excess domestic demand, a dynamic Hauser has echoed, noting a resolution and lower oil prices would be welcome but isn't assured.The Board's language has kept a tightening bias technically alive rather than shifting to neutral, and Bullock's August press conference reiterated that current pricing for near-term cuts is running ahead of the Board's own thinking. That leaves Hauser's remarks today as a chance to signal whether persistent Gulf-driven oil price pressure and the incoming award wage bump are enough to keep the door open to a further hike, or whether the Board is content to let the current settings work through the economy for now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Kimmitt's comments reframe the UAE's trade suspension from a diplomatic statement into a potentially serious economic shock for Iran, given Dubai's outsized role as Iran's single largest source of imported goods and its long-standing function as a financial workaround for sanctions. If accurate, the description of the halt as more consequential than US sanctions raises the stakes on how Iran might respond, with Kimmitt's own comparison to a full embargo carrying echoes of pre-conflict escalation dynamics. Markets will be watching whether other Gulf states adopt a similar wait-and-see posture Kimmitt describes, since any broader Gulf alignment against Iran would meaningfully tighten the economic pressure campaign and could feed further into the region's already elevated risk premium. For now, the framing adds weight to the view that Gulf capitals may be moving from rhetorical distancing toward substantive economic measures against Tehran.---Earlier:UAE halts all trade and financial dealings with Iran, MoFA official saysIran rejects UAE missile accusation, warns against unfounded claims A former US official says the UAE's trade halt with Iran could hit harder than Washington's own sanctions regime. Al Jazeera had the info. Summary:Retired general and former US assistant secretary of state Mark Kimmitt told Al Jazeera the UAE's trade suspension with Iran could be more significant than US sanctionsHe said the UAE is currently Iran's largest source of imported goods, ahead of China and Turkiye, accounting for around a third of Iran's annual importsKimmitt said Dubai's role as a financial hub has also long provided Iran with a channel to circumvent sanctionsHe said the UAE's move could in some ways be more significant than the US embargoKimmitt expects other Gulf states to take a wait-and-see approach for now rather than immediately following the UAE's leadHe compared the scale of the move to the US embargo on Japan after World War II, suggesting Iran could interpret it as approaching an act of war The United Arab Emirates' suspension of trade with Iran could prove more consequential than existing US sanctions, according to retired general and former US assistant secretary of state Mark Kimmitt, who pointed to Dubai's outsized role in Iran's economy as the key factor.Speaking to Al Jazeera, Kimmitt said the scale of financial and goods trade between Dubai and Iran is difficult to overstate. He said the UAE is currently the largest source of imported goods into Iran, ahead of both China and Turkiye, with around a third of Iran's total annual imports coming from the UAE alone.Kimmitt also pointed to Dubai's long-standing function as a regional financial hub, noting it has historically given Iran a channel through which to work around international sanctions. Given that role, he said the UAE's suspension of trade could in some respects carry more weight than the embargo imposed by the United States.Asked whether other Gulf states might follow the UAE's example if Iranian attacks continue, Kimmitt said he expects a cautious, wait-and-see approach for now rather than an immediate coordinated response. He said the significance of the UAE's move is such that Iran could interpret it as edging toward an act of war, drawing a comparison to the United States' full embargo of Japan following World War II.The comments add a new dimension to the UAE's economic response this week, framing it less as a diplomatic gesture tied to recent missile allegations and more as a potentially serious structural blow to Iran's trade and financial access. Whether other Gulf states ultimately follow suit is likely to depend heavily on how the standoff between the UAE and Iran develops in the coming days, particularly given Kimmitt's warning about how Tehran itself may read the move. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia Wage Price Index Q2 2026 3.2% y/yexpected 3.2%, prior 3.3%0.8% q/qexpected 0.8%, prior 0.8% Some background here at the preview.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.7-day reverse repurchase operation volume zero againPBoC conducted 327.4 billion yuan of overnight reverse repurchase operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The fourth consecutive day of gains reflects a market still pricing genuine uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz is actually navigable, rather than reacting to any single fresh escalation. The direct contradiction between Washington's insistence the strait is open and Tehran's assertion that it remains closed leaves shippers and insurers with little to act on, which tends to keep a risk premium embedded in price even without new strikes. Iraq's move to diversify export routes away from Gulf shipping, and further reports of Chinese shipping majors avoiding Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb entirely, both point to the physical market adjusting around the uncertainty rather than waiting for it to resolve. With the temporary ceasefire having lapsed and no clear diplomatic path forward, prices look supported near recent highs until either side offers something more concrete than rhetoric.--- Oil rose for a fourth straight session as Washington and Tehran continue to give conflicting accounts of whether Hormuz is actually open.Summary:Brent and WTI both edged higher in early Asia trade on Wednesday, extending a run of gains to a fourth straight sessionBoth contracts closed Tuesday at their highest levels since July 24, with peace hopes between the US and Iran fadingTrump said no talks were taking place with Iran and insisted the Strait of Hormuz remains open, directly contradicting Iran's position that the waterway is shutA temporary ceasefire agreement expired Monday, with a senior Iranian official pointing to a more hardline shift amid the diplomatic stalemate, though no fresh strikes were reported TuesdayIraq's cabinet approved a three-month mechanism, starting September 1, to export crude via international and local firms and multiple outlets, partly to avoid the straitTwo major Chinese shipping firms have stopped sending tankers through Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb altogether, instead collecting cargoes from outside the Gulf Oil prices ticked higher in early Asia trade on Wednesday, extending gains into a fourth straight session as investors continued to weigh conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran over whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open to shipping.Brent crude edged up to around $91 a barrel, while US WTI crude rose to around $85, both building modestly on Tuesday's close, when the contracts settled at their highest levels since July 24 as hopes for a US-Iran peace deal continued to fade.President Trump said on Tuesday that no talks were taking place with Iran and reiterated his position that the Strait of Hormuz remains open, a claim directly at odds with Iran's own assertion that the critical waterway is shut to shipping. The dispute leaves the market with no clear read on the physical state of transit through the strait, which continues to underpin the price support seen over recent sessions.A temporary ceasefire agreement between the two countries expired on Monday, and a senior Iranian official told Reuters the country was shifting toward a more hardline posture given the ongoing diplomatic stalemate, though there were no reports of fresh strikes by either side on Tuesday. The absence of new attacks has not been enough to ease pricing, given the standoff over the strait's actual operational status remains unresolved.Against that backdrop, physical market participants are increasingly acting to route around the uncertainty rather than wait for clarity. Iraq's cabinet approved a new mechanism allowing crude exports through specialised international and local companies via multiple outlets, with contracts running for three months from September 1. The move is aimed in part at reducing Iraq's exposure to the strait, given the country's heavy reliance on southern Gulf export terminals.Separately, Reuters reports that two major Chinese shipping companies have stopped sending oil tankers through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb strait entirely amid the conflict, according to industry executives, tanker trackers and a ship broker, instead collecting cargoes from locations outside the Gulf altogether. Combined with Iraq's export diversification, the moves point to a market that is beginning to structurally adjust its shipping patterns around the risk, rather than treating the disruption as a short-term event likely to resolve quickly. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Asian equites are opening weaker following the continued fall on Wall Street and the ongoing stalemate over Hormuz.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Machinery Orders (YoY) (June 2026) +16.9%, fastest rise in four months.expected +10.8%, prior -1.9%Machinery Orders (MoM) +9.7% m/m, best jump since February this yearexpected +7.8%, prior -12.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A breakdown in talks and the imposition of new 50% tariffs would hit sectors including lumber, wine, dairy and autos, with knock-on risk to broader USMCA negotiations that have underpinned North American trade stability for years. The auto sector is the clearest pressure point, given industry warnings that even a reduced 15% tariff would be unsustainable against average profit margins of just 6% under prior duty-free trade, and that roughly half the value of a Canadian-built vehicle originates in the US, meaning tariffs would also hurt American manufacturers. Currency and equity markets with exposure to Canadian exporters, particularly in materials, agriculture and autos, are likely to stay sensitive to headlines out of Washington through the deadline. A resolution incorporating the discussed auto tariff cut would be read as a relief signal for North American supply chains, while a lapse into the new tariffs raises the risk of retaliatory measures and a longer disruption to trade flows.--- Canada and the US are racing to strike a deal on autos and tariffs before new 50% duties hit at midnight, Reuters reports. Summary:Carney and Trump spoke by phone on Tuesday for the second time this week, with no clarity offered on the state of negotiationsNew US tariffs covering about $20 billion of Canadian imports are due to take effect from midnight, applying regardless of USMCA preferential treatmentUS and Canadian officials have discussed cutting Section 232 tariffs on Canadian vehicles to 15% from 25%, with further reductions tied to US content levelsA Canadian auto industry official said even a 15% tariff would be unaffordable given thin historical profit margins, and that tariffs would also hurt US manufacturers given the shared supply chainA key sticking point is how tariff deductions are calculated, with Washington wanting only US-produced content counted and Canada pushing for all North American content to qualifyCanadian officials have been in Washington since last week, including a near two-hour meeting Monday with USTR Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, while a Canadian government source said all options remain on the table, including a possible suspension of trade talks Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump spoke again on Tuesday afternoon, the second call between the two leaders this week, as Canada works to secure a last-minute deal to avoid new 50% tariffs from taking effect at midnight. Neither side offered clarity on the state of talks following weeks of intense negotiations.The new US tariffs would cover roughly $20 billion worth of imports and would apply regardless of whether Canadian goods qualify for preferential treatment under the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, an agreement that has shielded much of Canadian industry from earlier rounds of US tariffs. Carney's office confirmed only that the two leaders spoke about the ongoing negotiations, without elaborating further, while the White House and the Office of the US Trade Representative did not respond to requests for comment.Industry officials and trade experts warned the new tariffs could trigger job losses and business closures in vulnerable sectors including lumber, wine and dairy, while complicating broader USMCA talks. Candace Laing, CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said billions of dollars in goods previously unaffected are now at risk, adding that businesses have spent more than a year holding back on hiring and investment as the uncertainty dragged on.Existing US auto tariffs have emerged as a central sticking point. Two industry sources said the two sides have discussed reducing US Section 232 tariffs on Canadian vehicles to 15% from 25%, with the possibility of further cuts tied to the amount of US content in each vehicle. It remained unclear on Tuesday whether an agreement incorporating those auto tariff changes could be finalised before the deadline.A Canadian auto industry official said the numbers still would not work even at a reduced rate, noting that under duty-free North American trade prior to the 25% tariffs, industry profit margins averaged only 6%, making a 15% tariff still too costly to absorb. The official added that roughly half the value of every Canadian-built vehicle originates in the United States, meaning tariffs aimed at hurting Canadian manufacturing would inevitably damage US producers as well.A major unresolved question is how tariff deductions based on vehicle content should be calculated. Washington has pushed for only US-produced content to count toward deductions, while Canada is arguing that all North American content, including Canadian and Mexican-made parts, should qualify. Separately, the US Commerce Department issued new rules on Tuesday requiring automakers exporting from Canada and Mexico to certify their US content levels annually rather than twice a year, though manufacturers must still recertify vehicles' American content by September 30 to claim deductions under the new cycle beginning December 1.Canada's minister responsible for US trade, Dominic LeBlanc, and chief trade negotiator Janice Charette have been in Washington since last week, meeting Monday for nearly two hours with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Greer has repeatedly pointed to Canada's retaliatory tariffs, some provinces' refusal to stock US liquor, and Canada's dairy supply management system as ongoing US grievances. A Canadian government source said last week that all options remain on the table should the new tariffs take effect, including support for affected domestic industries and a possible suspension of bilateral trade talks, though the source expressed hope that Washington remained keen to reach a deal. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.