Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 9Erratic flows across Markets yet again as the countdown to the FOMC decision goes on.While US Stock Markets were snoozers today, but risk-asset enjoyers did get a volatility dose: Cryptos offered quite a strong session, with Bitcoin coming shy of $95,000 and Ethereum touching the $3,300 level before retreating lower.The unambiguous winner of today's session, however, is easily Silver, which broke its fresh $59 record to mark an intraday All-time High at $60.83 in an aggressive late-session move.This price action is highly suggestive of a late session short squeeze, with some traders unfolding some awkward positions held too long ahead of the FOMC event – I have seen such moves before and have also been there myself.The next key technical test for the metal will be tomorrow's close: confirmation of a breakout relies on the metal closing tomorrow above $59.The fundamental backdrop remains anchored but restrictive.This morning’s JOLTS report delivered a beat which, while preserving the high odds for tomorrow’s rate cut (around 85%), has effectively taken some 2026 rate cuts.The Eastern-Europe conflict headlines also intensified: President Trump renewed his menaces to Ukraine in a Politico interview released today, questioning Zelenskyy's legitimacy due to postponed elections and asserting that Russia retains the "upper hand" in the conflict, while throwing shade at European leaders.There hasn't been much movement in the Euro but such words originally propulsed the Joint Currency to some extended-rallies earlier this year.For those who missed, the RBA delivered a hawkish pause yesterday evening, holding their rates steady at 3.60%.The central bank cited renewed upward pressures on inflation and did not rule out the possibility of future rate hikes in 2026, creating a stark divergence between US and Australian policy outlooks and sending AUD/USD to some 4-months highs.Tomorrow should bring back significant volatility after a calm pre-FOMC period.Still, traders will have to scramble to extract as much information as they can from the Powell speech at 14:30 tomorrow, as there will be nine more days (and seven sessions) until the emphatically essential NFP report on December 18th—the January NFP will release on January 9th as the BLS begins to recover its shutdown backlog. Read More:FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY)US Curve outlook: Why US Treasury yields are surging before the FedWill Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) reach new records with the FOMC?Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Except for some spikes in Cryptos (particularly Altcoins) and Silver, other assets are patiently awaiting for the Fed to get moving.Very exciting. zoom_out_map Crypto Daily Performance, December 5, 2025 – Source: Finviz A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 9 – Source: OANDA Labs Dull movement throughout the open until AUD buyers and JPY sellers gave sense to the FX session.The Yen got wrecked particularly hard as further doubts on the Bank of Japan emerge as hawkish communication attempts fail to protect the Nippon currency.Check out our fresh FX reviews right here:The Yen Rout Continues: USD/JPY Surges to New Monthly Highs despite Key Rate decisionsAUD/USD: Major bullish breakout of Aussie ahead of RBAA look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The overnight to tomorrow session is going to be a game-changer and most probably the most intense trading period of December.Starting tonight with the China CPI, traders will get to know more on if economists start to turn the page on Chinese deflation, which will have its own influence on AUD and NZD particularly, and same for Asian Stock Markets.But all eyes are turning on tomorrow's Banger session:Bank of England's Governor Bailey and ECB's Lagarde go back to back in the early morning at a Financial Times Conference. The subject of their discussions hasn't been announced yet.Later, the Bank of Canada will deliver a first Central Bank rate decision, widely expected to remain unchanged but also should provide interesting developments for the future path: 2026 hikes have started to price after last Friday's Canadian Employment numbers.The press conference at 10:30 A.M. will be closely followed.But all eyes will be on the FOMC rate Decision, a Market volatility classic.A 25 Bps cut is expected but the cut itself will be far from the most interesting event:Dot plots (14:00) will be releasing for 2026 and above all, Powell's speech (14:30) will be followed by traders as if it was a prophecy.CHECK OUT OUR FOMC PREVIEWS!This will be one of his 4 final FOMC appearances before he steps down (May 2026).NEC Director Hassett is still the favorite for the job.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This article is a complement to our previous pre-FOMC analysis which explores the Fed Decision, Dot Plot and different scenarios for the US Dollar:Discover: FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY)We will now turn to a more technical look into the US curve, a 10-Year Bond chart to see what's going on behind the pricing for tomorrow's meeting, and provide a few more scenarios depending on the rate cut path.More particularly, with the 25 bps cut being a quasi-certainty, we will provide potential scenarios on if the cut is hawkish or dovish and a few potential reactions.A first move to signal in Markets, is the recent move higher in US treasuries across the curve.Mentioned many times across our analyses on MarketPulse, the speech from NY Fed's Williams, a very influential speaker, affected Markets on a large scale: zoom_out_map Asset Performance since Williams' Speech – Source: TradingView Counter-intuitively, the speech that re-introduced possibilities of lower rates (which you can find right here) led a huge rebound in Stock Markets and Metals, but similarly preceded a move between +15 bps to +20 bps in US treasuries.But why? zoom_out_map US 10-Year Bond with 10Y Yield underlay – December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Never forget the sell-the-news effect – At least for the bonds!The reasoning behind this move is a microcosm of the 2025 trend: A fear of an influenced Federal Reserve, which may fast-forward its rate-cut cycle at the cost of their data-dependency–or even their independence!As explained in our recent pre-FOMC analysis, the 25-bps move could be one done with a blind eye – most of the data released throughout the past month is data dating back to September, such as the PPI and Retail Sales data (which corroborated a slowdown).However, at the same time, more actual data also sent mixed signals, particularly regarding Labor – Weekly Jobless Claims came in at the lowest level since September 2022 just a week ago, while ADP Private Payrolls showed a regressing picture.Until now, the Fed had been remarkably resilient about taking preemptive decisions without a clear consensus on why to hike or cut – and this shift in perspective also comes amid still uncertain tariff-led inflation outlooks. zoom_out_map The US Curve: Mid-October vs Today – A 15 to 25 bps increase throughout all durations The Greenback falling at the same time as yields rising indicates an increased premium for holding US debt.Many words to describe the same phenomenon: The Debasement Trade.If you haven't heard about this term, you can find a stellar definition right here. To summarize, it's a financial trend shifting away from fiat currencies and governmental assets to focus on finite assets, such as Stocks, Cryptocurrencies, and Metals.Coming back to the curve picture from above, the front-end flattened quite aggressively, implying Rates staying put for a longer-while after this cut. zoom_out_map Mid-2026 Pricing: 50% odds of a 3% Neutral Rate – Source: TradingView This takes us to our expectations for tomorrow:Scenarios and probabilities:A hawkish cut (70% chance) This is the base case for tomorrow's decision (in my opinion).Powell should indicate a risk-management move after the streak of negative private payrolls data combined with a not-aggravating inflationary picture.To balance out these words, expect the Fed Chair to point out to a blinded Fed due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics closure and delayed data, particularly for NFP.Reactions in Major assets Upcoming rate cut probabilities decrease to price a pause in the waiting for more dataThe US dollar maintains its ongoing consolidation range (between 99.00 to 100.00 on the Dollar Index)Stock Indexes correct due to their ecstatic post-Williams repricingShort-end yields shoot higher while long-end yields stay put (Harsh bear flattening)Metals correct slightlyA dovish cut (10% chance) Jerome Powell folds and makes extensive mentions on the private labor market while reducing mentions of inflation.Reactions in Major assets Rate cuts get front-loaded (moved forward) aggressively but leaves VERY volatile future pricingsThe US Dollar falls off a cliff and goes to retest the yearly lowsStock Indexes flash to new all-time highs but may find struggles as Fed Independence doubts rage backShort-end yields shoot lower while long-end yields shoot higher (Strong steepening)Metals explode to new all-time highs and keep running higherA dovish pause (20%) The Fed decides to hold their breath due to a lack of data but keep a strong option on rate cuts in the short-term.This one is the most tricky.Most participants expect a cut, but this would quickly shift the current pricing:Reactions in Major assets 2026 Rate cuts get front-loaded on a smaller extentThe US Dollar rallies to hold above/close to the 100.00 level.Stock Indexes see VERY volatile swings and form a large rangeThe curve stays put, long-term yields go lower (small Bull flattening)Metals correct slightlyThis article wasn't the most common, but I hope it will be instructive.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Japanese Yen rout shows no signs of abating, pushing the USD/JPY pair to yet another set of monthly highs despite tomorrow’s highly anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve, combined with expectations of another hike in Japan.Rising expectations for another rate hike in JapanThe decisive driver behind the Yen's continued weakness is the market's profound distrust of the Japanese monetary and fiscal coordination. zoom_out_map Japanese Yen against other major currencies – Generated with the help of Gemini On one side, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government has pushed through gigantic stimulus with a stance the market deems fiscally reckless, leading to the original flash higher in USD/JPY – Reassuring words from the PM haven't had the best reception.On the other side, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is desperately trying to signal a normalization shift.In recent remarks, Ueda emphasized that the "certainty of the BoJ’s outlook materializing is increasing gradually," and that current policy remains "accommodative," even after previous minor adjustments.Still, Traders deem the divergence in both policies not being sustainable and leading to a confidence extinction.Even if the Bank of Japan hikes, how much can they really hike?The Yen's safety will be contingent on not just a hike, but a more stable and decisive tightening cycle.Also, keep a close eye on reactions to the Dollar tomorrow while Powell speaks! Read More:Will Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) reach new records with the FOMC?Markets Today: RBA Rate Hold, Nikkei Recovers, FTSE 100 Struggles as Markets Remain Cautious Ahead of FOMCAUD/USD: Major bullish breakout of Aussie ahead of RBAUSD/JPY Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map USD/JPY Daily Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView What was thought to have been a top in the currency pair now looks like a healthy pullback.As the daily RSI went from overbought to neutral, bulls resurfaced strongly and are making a statement in the price action and are fully back in control.The only way for bears to have a case here would be if a mean reversion move towards the close would bring the action back within the 156.00 to 156.750 Main resistance.But things are not looking in this direction right now.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/JPY 4H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Look at how clean the September Channel got respected on the recent rebound.USD/JPY technical levels of interest:Support Levels:155.00 Pivot ZoneRecent Lows 154.40154.00 Psychological Support50-Day MA 153.00150.00 Psychological Support and 50-Week MA146.00 August Range Main SupportResistance Levels:156.00 to 156.750 Main resistance (breaking)157.90 to 158.90 Yearly Resistance157.895 Recent Highs2025 Highs and April 2024 peaks 158.80 to 160.001990 and July 2024 Peak 161.00 to 162.001H Chart zoom_out_map USD/JPY 1H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current move does not look like it's about to stop.A mini-resistance is coming up right above 157.00 and will be one of the two final points for sellers to appear again.The other one naturally being 157.895, the recent highs.Momentum is very overbought which may prompt some stoppage, but with buyers disregarding tomorrow's number, I wouldn't be surprised to see continuation here.A big part of the longer-run outlook for the pair will be dependent on what happens at tomorrow's FOMC event.The second most important event will be the Bank of Japan's meeting on December 19.Don't just watch the rate decision, keep a close eye on communications from the Central Banks!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Metals have completed yet another round of high-pace rally to new highs since the US government reopened and NY Fed’s Williams delivered his extra-dovish comments.After hawkish fears failed to materialize into real corrections in the bullions, traders were eager to push for such squeezes yet again.But with Gold failing to breach new all-time highs on this run, the attention is caught up in industrial metals, which have outperformed all precious peers (palladium, platinum, and gold). zoom_out_map Metal Performance since Enc-October 2025. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current leaders of the surge are Copper and Silver, which are heavily benefiting from their extreme necessity in the AI components creation and electrification megatrends.Silver, in particular, has seen its price nearly double over the last twelve months and has recently surged to a record settlement of $59.14 an ounce.The yellow metal is currently stuck in a narrow range and Silver keeps testing its highs. Both are awaiting tomorrow afternoon's FOMC decision before making their next definitive move. Gold’s direction will inevitably drag other metals with it.Today's analysis will focus on a Silver intraday chart and take a look at Gold to see if the upcoming FOMC (particularly communications during the speech) has the potential to push prices higher, what could happen depending on hawkish and dovish tones, and what technical targets are now in play. Read More:Markets Today: RBA Rate Hold, Nikkei Recovers, FTSE 100 Struggles as Markets Remain Cautious Ahead of FOMCAUD/USD: Major bullish breakout of Aussie ahead of RBAApple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) Technical Analysis – AI Leaders Outlook Part 3Silver (XAG/USD) 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 8H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Prospects for Silver were scary after last month's double-top formation.But as seen throughout the year, when metals are racing higher while the US dollar heads lower, a general sign of currency balancing and risk-management perspectives from global Central Banks encourages the spread of further commodity demand.Reaching some new highs last Monday, Silver has maintained its high-range consolidation throughout the entire week (between $56.60 to $58.50).Ongoing sideways action at the highs allows overbought RSI levels to retreat while conserving higher chances of an upside breakout. Still, to keep an eye on the fundamental background, watch for these elements:If Powell's speech (starting at 14:30 E.T. tomorrow) makes mentions of a stressed labor market picture and/or if he makes allusions to more work to be done on rates, new all-time highs can easily be expected – Silver could spike between $60–$62.On the other hand, mentions of temporary readjustments in data, one-time reductions in labor, a "cut-and-see" approach, or anything of the sort will hurt metal demand quite harshly – a test of the previous all-time highs of $54 to $55 would make sense. If hawkish repricings see further strength, low $50s could also be visited.Keep an eye on 2026 cuts: The more cuts, the more fuel for the "Everything rally", and vice versa.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:Fibonacci-Extension Resistance $58.00 to $602025 record $55.48$52 to $53 mini-resistance$51.18 session highsPotential resistance 1 $57.50 to $60 (1.382% from 2022 lows)Potential resistance 2 $62 to $65 (1.618 from Impulsive Move)Support Levels:$48.30 to $49 support$47 low of potential daily channel$45.55 October 28 lows$43.00 to $45.00 Weekly pivot$39.50 to $40 higher timeframe support2012 Highs Support around $37.50Gold (XAU/USD) 8H Chart and technical levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 8H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold sacrificed some current momentum to hold a more balanced approach ahead of the FOMC.Moving sideways since reaching some new highs in end-October, the yellow metal could be forming an ascending triangle, a very bullish pattern.In the case of an upside break, take the leg of the triangle (its height – $250 in this pattern) and use it as a Measured Move target which could point to $4,550 in the Bullion.Do not forget that patterns don't mean much before they play out, and for them to play out, traders will await tomorrow's meeting.With RSI right back at neutral (and bouncing higher from there), there is space for breakouts; expect explosive price action!Similarly to Silver (and same for all metals), the direction of the breakout will be highly dependent on Powell's tone tomorrow – The main catalyst for continuation (or reversal) for all Markets!Levels to watch for Gold (XAU) trading:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time High resistance $4,300 to $4,400Ascending triangle highs: $4,250 to $4,260$4,380 Current all-time HighsFib-Induced potential new ATH resistance $4,500 to $4,575Support LevelsSupport, 8H 50-period MA and Triangle bottom $4,140 to $4,150Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000 (200-period MA)$3,700 consolidation Support$3,500 Major SupportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Hotter-than-expected October trimmed CPI and hawkish RBA communication have sharply reduced rate-cut expectations for 2026, with markets now pricing a >70% chance of a hike by end-2026.Australia’s 2-year and 10-year bond yield premiums over US Treasuries have widened to multi-year highs, boosting the appeal of AUD-denominated assets and supporting medium-term AUD/USD strength.AUD/USD maintains a short-term bullish bias above 0.6605, supported by a major trendline breakout, firm MACD momentum, and an RSI rebound from near-oversold levels. The hawkish parliamentary speech from RBA Governor Bullock in the past week and the latest monthly trimmed Australia’s mean CPI data for October 2025, which came in hotter than expected at 3.3% y/y (consensus: 3%, September: 3.2%), and breached above the upper limit of the RBA’s inflation target band of 2%-3% has significantly reduced interest rate cuts expectations in 2026.The Australian central bank (RBA) has cut its policy cash rate three times by 25 basis points each so far in 2025, in February, May, and August. Lowering the cash rate from a 13-year high of 4.35% in January 2025 to its current level of 3.6%.In today’s rate-setting meeting, the RBA has maintained a hold on its policy cash rate at 3.6% for the third time as expected, and it is likely the end of its current interest rate cut cycle, as interest rate futures are pricing in over a 70% chance of an interest rate hike by the end of 2026.All eyes and ears on RBA Governor Bullock’s press conference next at 4.30 am GMT.Australian sovereign bonds’ yield premium increases at a faster pace over US Treasuries zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Australian 2-YR & 10-YR sovereign bond yields spread over US Treasuries as of 9 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) In the past week, the Australian 10-year sovereign bond yield premium over US Treasuries has widened to 56 basis points (bps) at this time of writing, its widest spread since August 2022.The 2-year Australian sovereign bond yield, which is more sensitive to the RBA’s monetary policy stance, has also widened significantly over US Treasuries to 43 bps, its highest level in eight years.A widening yield premium of Australian sovereign bonds over US Treasuries increases the appeal of AUD-denominated assets, setting the stage for further medium-term strength in the AUD/USD exchange rate.Let’s now focus on the latest technical analysis elements, the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), and key levels to watch for in AUD/USD.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Watch the key short-term support at 0.6605 zoom_out_map Fig. 2: AUD/USD medium-term trend as of 9 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend as of 9 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) Bullish bias above 0.6605 short-term pivotal support for the AUD/USD, with intermediate resistance coming in at 0.6660, and above it sees 0.6690/6700 next (minor swing high area of 17/18 September 2025) (see Fig. 3).Key elements A major bullish breakout has occurred on the AUD/USD, where it has recorded a daily and weekly close above a former long-term descending trendline resistance that capped previous rallies since the 25 February 2021 high, now turns into pull-back support at 0.6605 (see Fig. 2).The daily MACD trend indicator has continued to trend upwards steadily above its centreline, which suggests a potential medium-term uptrend phase is in progress for AUD/USD (see Fig. 2).The hourly RSI momentum has rebounded after retesting its key support level at 33.3 during the US session on Monday, 8 December, which is just a whisker above its oversold region (below 30) (see Fig. 3).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 0.6605 key short-term support negates the bullish tone on the AUD/USD to expose a deeper minor corrective pull-back towards the next intermediate supports at 0.6580 and 0.6555. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (08/12/2025): Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they look ahead to key events in this week's trading. With December being an eventful month for central bank rate decisions, we discuss the upcoming RBA and Federal Reserve decisions in today's episode, with focus on last week's US PCE print and how the Aussie dollar is positioned ahead of the vote. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 5Markets are closing a high-expectations week and heading into an even-more volatile one. Coming back from the Thanksgiving break, traders confirmed the past week's spectacular rally with normal volumes returning to Stock Markets. While the week wasn't as unidirectional as last week, the overall mood is still highly positive as both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 stall just shy of their all-time highs.There has been several chaotic waves of action today: an initial rally in risk-assets was consequently followed by a strong selloff in Cryptos, which dragged Equities off of their relative highs. The reason for the selloff isn't a particular single catalyst, but looking at this week's narrative, MicroStrategy's ongoing liquidation dynamics—fueled by a massive stock crash and the possibility of selling Bitcoin to meet liquidity and dividend obligations—could still be into play.In terms of politics, the world assisted to the 2026 World Cup Draw in Washington this afternoon. While most were focused on the football calendar, traders were watching closely how US President Trump interacted with Canadian PM Mark Carney and Mexican President Sheinbaum.And some positive words from Trump regarding their relations have brought further strength in an ongoing Canadian Dollar rally – Canada posted yet another beat on their Employment data!Metals close a very positive week in a mixed fashion, with all of the tradable elements making a sharp move higher at the beginning of the week before settling down today.The commodity class which has surprised markets this week, and once again today, has been Energy products. WTI Crude Oil is back above the $60 mark, and Natural Gas is on a huge breakout, trading above $5/MMBtu and soaring over 70% since mid-October lows. This strength is driven by a cold front forecast and geopolitical supply risks. Read More:AI Leaders Outlook part 2: Technical Analysis of Google and Microsoft StocksMarkets Weekly Outlook - FOMC Rate Cut Countdown, Economic Projections May Hold the KeyUS stocks hesitant rally: Markets pass the Core PCE and U-of-Mich data barUK: Rising debt costs and fiscal uncertaintyCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Market performance stayed relatively muted today, with rangebound and undecided action across all assets – Well, except for Bitcoin which took a huge hit.Keep an eye on energy commodities, as there seems to be a theme developing there and could be the most interesting asset class ahead of the FOMC. All other classes should stay put in the waiting for Powell's words on Wednesday.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 5 – Source: OANDA Labs The Aussie was rallying quite aggressively during the overnight session with Markets starting to price out all types of cuts in 2026 after their huge inflation numbers, strong trade data and retail sales activity as of late – Their rate decision is happening on Monday evening, so traders are already preparing for some hawkish speeches.But the Canadian Dollar came to steal the show. As mentioned in the intro , another beat in Canadian Employment gave a huge boost to the currency, now reaching some monthly highs against most of its counterparts.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this weekend and Monday's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The Sunday session will provide GDP Data for Japan, very important for the Yen – The Japanese economy is expected to contract further (-2% Annualized), which could severely complicate the Bank of Japan's hiking path.A rate hike has been drawing when looking at the BoJ's recent communications, but the tightening has been put to test with the recent Household spending data sharply missing.I invite you to have a look at our JPY/Japan fundamental analysis right here!Later on Sunday, China's Trade Balance will shed some light on the state of global demand, with exports expected to rebound.To start the week, the Early Monday session shall see the release of German Industrial Production at 2:00 A.M., looking to recover from the previous -1% slump.But the real show will start late in the evening with the RBA Interest Rate Decision at 22:30 ET – Keep a note on this one as it is the main event of the day. While a Hold at 3.6% is widely expected, the Rate Statement will be in the center of attention. The past communications have been hawkish, and traders are getting ready for more when looking at the daily rebound in the AUD.Don't forget the several BoE speakers (Taylor, Lombardelli) scheduled throughout the day – However, don't expect too much fireworks from the US session as the calendar remains light.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: WTI Rangebound: How Stalled Peace Talks & OPEC Strategy Will Shape the Oil MarketAmerican consumers felt slightly better about the economy in early December, according to a survey released on Friday.The Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan went up to 53.3 this month, an improvement from 51.0 in November, and slightly better than what economists expected.However, the overall mood remains gloomy. The main problem is that consumers are still very worried about high prices (inflation) and are not very optimistic about the job market.On a positive note, consumers expect price increases to slow down slightly: they now anticipate inflation will be 4.1% over the next year, down from 4.5%, and 3.2% over the next five years, down from 3.4%. zoom_out_map Source: UofM PCE Data Release for September 2025 In September 2025, Americans spent 0.3% more than they did in August, which was a total increase of about $65.1 billion. This increase was exactly what financial experts had predicted.The main reason for this spending growth was a large jump in spending on services (up by $63.0 billion), especially on housing, utilities, healthcare, and financial services. Spending on physical goods saw only a small increase (up by $2.1 billion).This small gain was due to a sharp rise in the cost of gas and other energy; otherwise, spending would have fallen, as people spent less money on things like cars, recreational items, and clothes. zoom_out_map Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Market Impact & US Dollar Index (DXY) Reaction The data was not really a huge surprise and heading into the release i did not expect it to have a major impact on the Interest rate outlook moving forward for the Federal Reserve.Those assumptions have been proved correct with rate cut expectations remaining relatively unchanged for next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Markets are still pricing in around an 87% probability of a 25bps rate cut next week.Heading into next week's Fed meeting, I still believe that the economic projections may hold more weight than the actual decision by the Fed. This is unless the Fed defy market expectations and hold rates steady. Any rate cut may receive a lukewarm response.However the 2026 economic projections and particularly those around how many rate cuts the Fed sees in 2026 could stoke significant volatility.At the previous meeting the Fed's economic projections only showed one 25 bps rate in 2026. Any dovish or hawkish tilt in this regard could send market volatility soaring.Following today's data, the US dollar index slipped further as pressure continues to mount on the greenback.Immediate support rests at 98.72 before the 100-day MA at 98.58 and the 98.00 handles come into focus.On the upside, resistance may be found at the 200-day MA resting at 99.51 before the psychological 100.00 becomes an area of focus once more.US Dollar Index Daily Chart, December 5, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Trade Safe.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Some change is starting to appear for Canada after consecutive rough years.Subject to a red-hot post-COVID boom, the Land of the Maple Syrup had severely tightened its policy rates and immigration rules, leading to a consecutive trough in activity starting in 2024.To add to that, US President Trump’s protectionist policies placed huge tariffs on key Canadian exports, including Lumber, Aluminium, and many others, damaging demand for Canada's cyclical economy and its prospects for growth.Given that growth prospects are essential for inciting business investment and hiring, it is clear why Canada struggled quite a bit under such pressure.But with peak fear subsiding and in the absence of an actual trade deal, Canadian data is bouncing suddenly, and the CAD now leads its FX peers on the session. zoom_out_map Morning FX Performance, pre Core PCE (9:03 A.M.) December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The shock came this morning with the publication of their third consecutive beat in Employment, posting a gain of +53.6K jobs (vs -5K exp).This also dropped the Unemployment rate considerably, from 7.0% to 6.5%.While most of the gains have been in the part-time economy, this is not entirely sub-optimal, as Canada's part-time and seasonal labor market is substantial, with winter and subsequent summer jobs solidifying Canada's labor picture.This strong surprise combines with recent beats in GDP and Housing data.Is Canada on the rise again, as the Bank of Canada looks to be done with its rate cuts (currently at 2.25%)?Canadian interest rate futures are already beginning to price hike premiums in 2026! zoom_out_map Details of the Canadian Employment report – December 5, 2025 We'll take a look at intraday charts for USD/CAD and EUR/CAD to see how important the shift was for the Loonie. Read More:Rising expectations for another rate hike in JapanMarkets Today: Asian & European Shares Mixed as German Factory Orders Rise. US PCE Data Remains the FocusWTI Rangebound: How Stalled Peace Talks & OPEC Strategy Will Shape the Oil MarketUSD/CAD 4H Chart zoom_out_map USD/CAD 4H Chart. December 5, 2025– Source: TradingView The North-American pair is reaching levels not seen since mid-September as USD/CAD was breaking higher on failed trade deal negotiations.Since November 25, the pair has reversed harshly after forming a double top, bearish Moving Average crosses and now testing Key levels.On the verge of breaking its 1.39 (+/- 200 Pips) Major support zone, there won't be much to support the pair on a break lower before 800 pips below at 1.38.Momentum is a bit oversold which can lead to consolidation, so watch how things develop with the soon releasing Core PCE.Levels of interest for USD/CAD TradingResistance Levels1.3930 Mini-resistance1.40 Major Pivot acting as resistanceCycle highs 1.4143 and Double topResistance between 1.4120 to 1.4145Key resistance 1.4250Support LevelsMajor Support 1.3870 to 1.39 (breaking)1.38 Major support +/- 150 pipsAugust range support 1.37501.3550 Main 2025 SupportEUR/CAD 8H Chart zoom_out_map EUR/CAD 8H Chart. December 5, 2025– Source: TradingView The rally in EUR/CAD in 2025 has been relentless, particularly when looking how weak the Loonie got in recent years.Up from 1.46 to 1.6490 (Levels not seen since 2009) in just a year, the momentum had been a one way flow.Things are starting to change however, with the current range (1.6130 to 1.63) lasting long enough to break below the 2025 upwards trendline.Now testing the higher timeframe pivot, EUR/CAD sellers will want to push for a weekly close below 1.6120 to confirm a break-down.Failing to do so maintains the two week range.Levels of interest for EUR/CAD TradingResistance Levels1.62 Mid-range Resistance1.6258 MA 50 and 200July 2009 Highs around 1.6350August 2025 Highs 1.64697Support Levels1.6150 Range lows & Higher timeframe Pivot (testing)1.6050 Minor SupportSupport for higher trend 1.5950Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets now treat a December rate hike to 0.75% as the base case.Inflation remains above target, with limited improvement in core measures.Rising rate expectations are strengthening the yen, supported by a narrowing US - Japan rate spread.Higher yields may constrain the BoJ’s pace of tightening next year.Growing likelihood of a December rate increase Expectations for another interest rate hike in Japan are clearly strengthening. Although initial hints appeared as early as September, they have intensified markedly in recent days. According to the latest reports, Bank of Japan policymakers are prepared to raise the policy rate to 0.75% at the December meeting - provided no significant disruptions emerge. Markets are now almost fully pricing in such a move, making it the baseline scenario. zoom_out_map Valuation of futures contracts for the future path of interest rates in Japan, source: Bloomberg Inflation pressures persist despite partial stabilisation After a period of uncertainty linked to trade tensions, conditions have stabilised somewhat, while inflation remains above the central bank’s target and continues to strain households. Although much of the price growth stems from volatile food costs - an area monetary policy should not overreact to - the core inflation index in Japan excludes only fresh food and energy. Within this measure, improvement has been limited despite some stabilisation in individual categories. zoom_out_map Inflation measures in Japan and the level of the main interest rate, source: Bloomberg The risk of credibility loss for the Bank of Japan A prolonged period of above-target inflation threatens to undermine the central bank’s credibility. For decades, Japan grappled with very low inflation, and markets grew accustomed to price growth below target. Today’s environment is different. Ignoring persistently elevated inflation - even if partly driven by unstable factors - is becoming increasingly difficult to justify.Yen strengthens as rate expectations rise Rising expectations for further rate hikes are supporting the yen, which has begun to appreciate against the dollar after weeks of weakness. The USD/JPY pair is trending lower, and the prospect of additional moves suggests further strengthening of the Japanese currency. The Bank of Japan will likely raise rates again in the spring - to around 1% - while the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its easing cycle. As a result, the interest-rate differential between the US and Japan should narrow to roughly 150 basis points by the end of next year, creating further room for yen appreciation.Higher rates push bond yields up Higher interest rates come with side effects, especially the rise in Japanese government bond yields. Recent increases have been substantial. While this is unlikely to stop the BoJ from delivering a December hike, it may slow the pace of future actions - the central bank is keen to avoid triggering a sharp sell-off in the debt market, especially as the government’s fiscal package is also exerting upward pressure on yields.Technical picture of USD/JPY In the second half of November, the USD/JPY currency pair reached levels corresponding to the peak recorded at the beginning of this year. The exchange rate has ‘returned’ to the upward trend channel, which it broke above last month. Signals coming from the BoJ, together with the technical setup, indicate that the strengthening of the JPY may continue, pushing the pair’s quotations toward even 150.00. zoom_out_map USD/JPY currency pair chart, daily data, source: Tradingview Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Grind Lower Most Read: The Bank of Japan's FX Intervention: Mechanism, Impact, and Historical PrecedentAsian stock markets went down today because the previous day ended poorly on Wall Street, especially for tech companies and US government bonds (Treasuries). Investors are now nervously waiting for important US inflation data that will be released later today (Friday).The overall Asian stock index fell by up to 0.7% but is still on track to finish with a gain for the second week in a row.Leading the losses across the region were Japanese stocks, which saw a significant drop after a strong gain the day before; the Nikkei 225 index fell 1.5% and is expected to close the week mostly unchanged.Meanwhile, the broader index of Asian stocks outside of Japan was down a slight 0.1% but is still set for a 0.5% gain for the week.On the data front, household spending in Japan fell in October, and it was the fastest drop in almost two years. This suggests that rising prices (inflation) are severely reducing how much money people feel comfortable spending.As a result, the interest rate (or yield) on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to 1.94% early in Asian trading, reaching its highest level since the middle of 2007, indicating that the cost of borrowing money for the government is going up significantly.The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lowered its key repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25% during its December 2025 meeting, in line with market forecasts amid confidence in a softer inflation outlook. The RBI has now cut rates by a total of 125 bps since the beginning of the year, bringing the repo rate to its lowest level since July 2022.German Factory Orders Rise New orders for German factories increased by 1.5% in October 2025 compared to September, which was better than the expected 0.5% rise, though it was slower than the 2.0% jump seen the month before.This increase marked the second month in a row for growth, mainly driven by a massive 87.1% surge in orders for large transportation equipment like aircraft and ships, along with an 11.9% rise in metal production.However, not all areas did well, as orders for electrical equipment dropped significantly by 16.2%. Looking at the details, orders for capital goods (like machinery) rose 4.9%, but orders for intermediate goods (used in production) and consumer goods both declined.The overall increase was fueled entirely by the domestic market, which saw a 9.9% surge in orders, completely offsetting the 4.0% fall in foreign demand, which was particularly weak outside the Euro area. If you remove the effect of large, one-off contracts, total orders only rose by 0.5%.Over the last three months, total factory orders saw a small decline, but excluding the effect of those large, erratic contracts, orders actually grew by 2.0%, suggesting the underlying demand for German manufactured goods remains steady.European Session - European Shares Steady European stock markets were stable on Friday after three straight days of increases, keeping them on track for a weekly gain as investors look ahead to key US inflation figures.The main pan-European STOXX 600 index was up slightly by 0.1%, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 also seeing modest gains.The main event is the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report due later today, which is highly anticipated because it could influence whether the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, decides to cut interest rates soon. Recent economic data and comments from some Fed officials have already led investors to expect an interest rate cut as early as next week.In terms of market sectors, basic resources were the top performers, rising 1.3% after copper prices hit a new high, and industrial stocks also saw their fourth straight day of gains. Separately, the investment bank Citigroup set a positive forecast for the main European index by 2026 and upgraded several sectors, including autos and industrials, based on expected financial benefits.Among individual company moves, Swiss Re fell 5.3% after its 2026 targets disappointed analysts, while Ocado surged 12.7% after the company announced it would receive a one-time $350 million payment from U.S. grocer Kroger for closing some planned warehouse facilities.On the FX front, the US dollar remained weak on Friday, staying near its lowest level in five weeks compared to other major currencies.The dollar was especially weak against the Japanese yen, which was boosted to a nearly three-week high because investors expect the Bank of Japan to raise its interest rates later this month. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar's value against six other currencies, fell 0.2% and is heading toward a 0.6% decline for the week overall.In contrast, other currencies saw gains: the euro rose 0.1%, moving back toward its three-week high; the British pound gained 0.2%, approaching a six-week peak; and the Australian dollar advanced 0.3%, reaching its strongest point in over two months.The Swiss franc also saw a small gain against the dollar.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold price rallied again overnight pushing back above the $4230/oz handle before a pullback. The precious metal has traded in a tight range this week with a breakout likely to be forthcoming post today's PCE data.If not the range could persist heading into next week's FOMC meeting barring any major geopolitical developments.Read More:Santa Claus Rally Strategy: How to Trade the S&P 500's Most Reliable Seasonal PatternBitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Alert: Bitcoin Breaks Major Resistance - Next Stop $100,000?WTI Rangebound: How Stalled Peace Talks & OPEC Strategy Will Shape the Oil MarketEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet today with Euro Area GDP data the highlight.Attention will turn to the US session where the main event is the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report due later today, which is highly anticipated because it could influence whether the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, decides to cut interest rates soon.Recent economic data and comments from some Fed officials have already led investors to expect an interest rate cut as early as next week.There are also a bunch of medium impact data releases such as the University of Michigan sentiment and revised Durable Goods data.I do not expect huge volatility from any of these events but given the lack of volatility this week, I am hoping for a bit more from today. Let us see what happens. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has held above the 100-day MA since last Thursday afternoon.This could be seen as a sign of bullish momentum with a potential breakout coming soon.However, the longer price remains rangebound, this will increase investor angst and a potential pullback may materialize.For now though, a bullish move appears more favorable as the index continues to grind higher.Immediate support rests at 9686, 9661 and 9610 respectively.A move higher may encounter some resistance at 9750, 9800 and 9850.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, December 5. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Read More: Santa Claus Rally Strategy: How to Trade the S&P 500's Most Reliable Seasonal PatternOil prices climbed on Thursday with WTI Oil ending the day with an increase of roughly 1%, trading at $59.70 a barrel.The upside move was primarily fueled by renewed geopolitical risk. Specifically, news of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and the backdrop of stalled peace negotiations created supply disruption fears, encouraging traders to push prices marginally higher.Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Oil prices received support from the fact that peace talks for Ukraine seemed to be stalling, especially after representatives for President Trump met with the Kremlin but reported no major progress toward ending the war. Previously, hopes for a peace deal had kept prices lower, as traders worried that Russian oil would flood an already full global market.In related news, Ukraine has continued to use drones to attack Russian oil infrastructure. A recent example was the fifth attack on the Druzhba pipeline, which sends Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, though the pipeline operator later stated that supplies were flowing normally.Experts say that Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refineries has become more organized and effective. This campaign has caused Russian refining output to drop by about 335,000 barrels per day between September and November compared to last year, with the production of gasoline and gasoil being the most severely affected.The geopolitical risks appear to be balancing out other factors such as high oil stockpiles and OPEC's production strategy. These factors are likely to keep any major moves at bay for now.Forward Outlook - Bulls or Bears to Prevail? Oil prices appear destined to remain rangebound for the foreseeable future. Markets will continue to wait for a major catalyst in the form of some peace between Russia-Ukraine, or a significant change in OPEC+ strategy.Neither situation seems likely to change anytime soon while clouds continue to hang over the global economic landscape.Overall, the downside does appear to be favored given that supply/demand concerns appear to be structural at this stage.With that in mind traders should be cautious about any time oil prices go up. Until there is clear proof that producers are cutting back supply, or that global demand has increased enough to use up the extra oil currently available, these price increases are likely to be temporary and will soon be followed by renewed selling.Technical Analysis - WTI From a technical analysis standpoint, WTI continues to struggle with significant sideways movement.A descending trendline break has taken place but given the overarching macro picture any move at this stage may meet significant selling pressure.The period-14 RSI has crossed above the neutral 50 level which does hint at bullish momentum.Immediate upside resistance rests at 60.00 before the 61.67-62.12 zone comes into focus. Beyond that we have the 200-day MA which rests at 63.66.Support to the downside rests at 58.00 before the November 25 swing low at 57.00 comes into focus.WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart, November 4, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 4Markets traded in chaotic fashion today as the latest Jobless Claims report sent confusion waves to the market. The headline number came at 191K vs 220K, the lowest since September 2022 (!) A stark divergence is emerging between private labor data (looking at Tuesday's ADP report) and public data.Some analysts have noted bad seasonal adjustments from the Bureau of Labor Statistics – Could there have been some reshuffling?This morning's Challenger Report paradoxically confirms another rise, of a lesser extent, in US Layoffs. You can access the interesting report right here.Markets unfortunately won't learn more on the issue until December 16, when the November Non-Farm Payrolls will be published.In terms of Market movement, the US Dollar rebounded after the Claims, pushing Tech, Cryptocurrencies and Metals lower.Silver actually rejected its highs quite aggressively, down 2.34% on the session. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (Session close) – December 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:USD rebounds: Technical overview for EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHFAI Leaders Outlook: Technical Analysis of Meta and Nvidia StocksSanta Claus Rally Strategy: How to Trade the S&P 500's Most Reliable Seasonal PatternUSD/JPY drops below 155.00: Has the 2025 yearly top been reached?Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView The range of movement has been contained in today's session throughout all asset classes, but there has been some extremes.Oil rebounded about 1% today as the Trump Administration took off some sanctions against Lukoil, a Russian Energy company.Metals also struggled apart from their precious leader, Gold, which finished higher by 0.75% on the day.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 4 – Source: OANDA Labs Except for the Swissie, which has struggled throughout the entire session, there has been a lot of up-and-down action in an otherwise undecided FX market.Keep an eye on the US Dollar after its mid-day rebound, particularly if the Core PCE comes in as-expected or stronger.Both the AUD and JPY remain on top, but their gains are relatively muted. A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow's session (Friday) is packed with the final gauntlet of high-tier data for the week. The early European session features growth data, with Eurozone GDP (Q3) and Employment Change releasing at 05:00 A.M. ET. Traders will watch to see if the region is maintaining its fragile recovery (Consensus 0.2% QoQ).However, the North American Session will likely drive the most volatility: The day starts with a double shocker with for Canadian Employment (08:30 A.M. ET) and the main event, US Core PCE Price Index at 08:30 A.M. ET. As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, a reading matching the consensus of 2.9% YoY (steady from previous) is expected. Any deviation here will be the final factor pricing the interest rate decision for next Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The morning wraps up with Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 A.M. ET.Crucial Note: Apart from these final data points, the calendar is effectively clear until the FOMC meeting next Wednesday, making Friday's close critical for positioning.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Today's session is one of the most muted trading seen in Stock Markets in a long while, reflecting ongoing caution after the volatility of November.Pretty logic considering Markets are still awaiting next Wednesday's FOMC rate decisionConfusion reigns regarding the Labor picture: this morning's Jobless Claims came in sharply lower at 191K (lowest since September 2022!), a number that fundamentally diverges from yesterday's ADP private payroll -32K Miss.With next week's Fed Cut well anchored around 85-90% and traders awaiting the pivotal Core PCE release, the immediate theme is not one of volatility, but rather uncertainty.We will instead analyze the Stocks which have carried this marvelous stock rally to where it is today:In this first edition of our individual stock deep dive, we will look into the specific stories of Meta and Nvidia—analyzing their weekly and intraday charts to determine if the technicals align.Some serious concerns remain in the market: Are we indeed caught in an AI Bubble, or are current levels fundamentally stable and just the beginning of a new Market Supercycle?A follow up edition coming up tomorrow will focus on Microsoft and Google, with a final edition on Monday for Apple and Amazon. Read More:North American Mid-Week Market Update – Trump drama and the Next Fed ChairUSD/JPY drops below 155.00: Has the 2025 yearly top been reached?Santa Claus Rally Strategy: How to Trade the S&P 500's Most Reliable Seasonal PatternMeta – A strong rebound after a continuous routWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Meta Weekly Stock Chart. December 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView Meta's Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio – 28.60 ~ Not too-highStrongest performer out of the Mag 7 today, Meta is taking a breather from the brutal selloffs it was subject to in the past month, taking the stock from its $795.55 highs to $581.25 lows, a 27% correction.Putting things in perspective, the Stock is up 660% from its 2023 Bear Market lows.With key stakeholders reshuffling within the company and spending cuts, buyers are stepping back in the share.Nevertheless, the Weekly picture is not-so-bullish: The 50-Week Moving Average is coming as imminent resistance. Closing above, preferrably after the FOMC, will be a sign to re-enter the stock.If not, the picture stays corrective.Let's take a closer look.8H Chart zoom_out_map Meta 8H Stock Chart. December 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView After this morning's 6% Gap-up in the stocks, powered by the reduced-spending headlines, the Stock trades at a quintessential Technical Level.At a 61.8% Fib level of its move, staying above marks high chances of a higher retest. Nevertheless, don't forget the 50-Week MA which will act as key resistance and needs to be broken.8H RSI Momentum is tilting higher from neutral, a positive sign.Traders can also watch for a gap fill at $648.00.Meta Technical levels of Interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent Pivot, acting as Resistance $660 to $680 (Testing)Session Highs $670.99All-time High Resistance $730 to $795Current All-time Highs $795.71Support LevelsRecent Support $580 to $600 – Watch reactions if it breaks$581.25 November lows2024 & Liberation Day Major Support $450 to $4902021 Highs $382.00August 2023 Key Rebound Zone $272.70Nvidia (NVDA) – Rebounds but outlook not as bullishWeekly Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Nvidia (NVDA) Weekly Stock Chart. December 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView NVDA Forward Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio – 23.47 ~ Far from historic P/E, which is becoming irrelevant (44.50) but not extreme.Nvidia is THE phenomenon of this ongoing AI-Rally, up 1,600% since its 2022 lows – Any news that drags it higher pulls the Market with it and the same for the downside.It's post-earnings reaction were a classic Sell-the-news despite new record sales – Dragged further by a huge Weekly bearish divergence.But its solid numbers are still providing support around the $180 level.In terms of news, the Chinese Market was getting closed by the Trump Administration particularly as it regards to the H200 Chips – Essential for AI-computing.But some recent meetings between US President Trump and the Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang point to a potential China market reopening.Still far from materializing, but it would be a strong catalyst for the stock.8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Nvidia (NVDA) 8H Stock Chart. December 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView The AI-leader is consolidating between $175 and $185 in a quintessential pivot area.A weekly close below it (particularly below the $170 November lows) should trigger harsh selling flows.A close above however (Look at the 50-period MA at $187) will on the other hand relaunch the prospects for the Bellwether Stock, particularly as it would break the downside trendline.After the harsh drop, intraday momentum remains below neutral but builds its way back above. A RSI Solidly above 55 gives the upper hand to the bulls.Same as Meta, traders should watch the weekly close and spot if sentiment gets better. Things should get clearer after the FOMC.NVDA Technical levels of Interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent Weekly Pivot (Weekly close Lower – Bearish | Above – Bullish $175 to $1858H 50-Period MA $187.00$192 to $197 ResistanceAll-time High Resistance $202 to $212Support Levels2024 High breakout zone – Key Support$170 November lows2024 High breakout zone – Key Support $140 to $1502024 & 2025 Range Support $115 to $125Liberation Day lows around $90 ($86.60)Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Alert: Bitcoin Breaks Major Resistance - Next Stop $100,000?The Santa Claus Rally (SCR) is a very reliable pattern where the U.S. stock market typically rises during a specific seven-day period spanning the last trading days of the current year and the first two trading days of the new year.This consistent upward movement demonstrates that market behavior is not random at this particular time. For professional traders and portfolio managers, understanding this reliable pattern is essential, as it helps them position their investments for short-term gains and is also often used as an indicator to help forecast how the stock market might perform over the subsequent twelve months.S&P 500 YTD Performance zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Defining the Anomaly The Santa Claus Rally (SCR) is a real, statistically proven trend where the stock market reliably goes up, but it only covers a very specific period: the last five days the market is open in December, plus the first two open days in January. It is crucial to define it this way because it distinguishes the genuine rally phenomenon from the generally positive feeling, or "bullish sentiment," that often affects the whole month of December.Statistical Reliability Since 1950, analysis of the S&P 500 (SPX) during this short, seven-day window reveals a robust statistical edge. The index has delivered an average gain of approximately 1.3%. Crucially, the rally has achieved positive returns in a remarkable 79% of observed instances, confirming its status as a consistently repeating market pattern.This average return of 1.3% over just seven trading days is significantly higher than the average return the market typically sees over any random seven-day stretch throughout the year.The Grinch Effect Beyond the short-term gains, the outcome of this seven-day period can be a critical barometer for the entire subsequent year's performance. If the market goes up during this seven-day rally (when "Santa Shows Up"), the stock market has historically delivered a very strong performance over the next year, averaging around a 10.4% gain.However, if the market falls during this rally, the so-called "Grinch Effect" it serves as a warning, as the following year's average gain is significantly lower, around 4.1%. Therefore, traders should focus on small-cap stocks, like those in the Russell 2000 index, because these volatile, smaller companies tend to benefit the most from this year-end optimism and are well-positioned for another related market trend in January, where money often flows into smaller, underappreciated firms.Implications for the S&P 500 and Other Major Indices For traders looking for an edge, the SCR represents a high-probability tactical trading opportunity, necessitating precise strategic execution regarding index selection and timing.Although the S&P 500 is used to track the rally's overall health, traders aiming for the biggest profits (or maximum alpha) should focus on investments that are more sensitive to market movements (high-beta assets). This makes small-cap stocks, like those found in the Russell 2000 index (IWM), the favored choice because they react strongly to changes in interest rate expectations and capital flows.Investing in small-caps during the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) window is a smart move that benefits both from the immediate seasonal price rise and the expected "January Effect" (where money rotates into smaller stocks) that follows. Besides small-caps, traders might also target sectors or individual stocks that are known for strong momentum at year-end, as these are often bought by institutions for "window dressing" (making their portfolios look better).Seasonality During Election Years Another factor that may come into play this year or could be used as a guide of sorts is US Stock market performance during election years.Bulls are in luck. Since 1945, whenever the S&P 500 was up more than 5% YTD by November's end in the first year of a presidential cycle, December has never missed and kept the rally going with an average 2.1% gain. Will 2025 follow this trend? zoom_out_map Source: Isbalenet, Carson Research Given that the S&P 500 remains down for the month of December thus far. Rally would be welcomed.A gain in the region of 2.1% would set the S&P 500 on course for fresh all-time highs beyond the current 6929 highs and a test of 7000 will likely materialize.Interesting times ahead for US Indices and given the stretched company valuations and the fact that indexes are near their all-time highs, data such as this could prove useful and provide market participants with an edge.S&P 500 Four-Hour Chart, December 4, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After two months of a relentless rout in the Yen, the Japanese currency is finally finding some stable ground. The core of the current reversal lies in the clash between the administration’s fiscal policy and the central bank’s monetary response: fiscal recklessness has finally been met with monetary soundness.Prime Minister Takaichi has been pushing to implement massive stimulus packages, while also pressuring the Bank of Japan to keep rates low to support these projects. Still, Markets don't get by the "cheap money" concept, which has led to a precipitous 5% to 8% move in the JPY against most majors since the beginning of October.To balance things out, a round of increasingly hawkish tones from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has reversed the course over the past few weeks, winning his first showdown against Takaichi – as provided by a Reuters Headline.Ueda confirmed overnight that current policy remains "accommodative" even after recent adjustments, underscoring the necessity of a planned exit from ultra-loose policy – The next BoJ Meeting is on December 19.The Central Bank is actively working to narrow its estimate of the neutral rate (the level that is neither stimulative nor restrictive). This rhetoric has created a strong market expectation for a December rate hike, supplemented by strong Japanese Inflation reports.Complemented by some renewed weakness in the US Dollar, the Yen’s resurgence has led to a top being found in USD/JPY, which has plunged more than 2% off its November highs.Let's examine the charts to see if technicals suggest a definite top or a temporary resistance. Read More:North American Mid-Week Market Update – Trump drama and the Next Fed ChairBitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Alert: Bitcoin Breaks Major Resistance - Next Stop $100,000?Nasdaq Index Outlook: Microsoft (MSFT) scares Markets despite strong Services PMI reportUSD/JPY Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map USD/JPY Daily Chart. December 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since the change in tone from the Bank of Japan, the sky-high prices have been rejected in a daily tight bear channel formation (Where no green candle overlaps the preceding red bar – A sign of seller strength).Falling 3,000 pips from its highs, the pair has broken below the key 155.00 psychological level but remains above its Daily Pivot Zone, decisive for long-term bull/bear strength.Looking at the Daily RSI, it's currently crossing the neutral zone which confirms the shift in trend but isn't yet in bearish territory.Traders will have to consider tomorrow's US Core PCE release, but barring any major crazy beat, the path for USD/JPY is towards some downside. 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/JPY 4H Chart. December 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY technical levels of interest:Support Levels:Session Lows 154.50 and Short-timeframe support153.00 to 154.00 Key Resistance now Pivot50-Day MA 153.00150.00 Psychological Support and 50-Week MA146.00 August Range Main SupportResistance Levels:December 1 highs 156.15 (short-term resistance – 156.00 to 156.30)156.90 to 157.95 recent peak resistance2025 Highs and April 2024 peaks 158.80 to 160.001990 and July 2024 Peak 161.00 to 162.001H Chart zoom_out_map USD/JPY 1H Chart. December 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer to the 1H Timeframe, we spot prices evolving within a downward channel and remaining below the two key 50 and 200-period Moving Averages, the intermediate trend is bearish.Still, the corrective move may have reached a temporary bottom with the RSI reaching oversold and a rebound attempt is ongoing.For interesting levels to join the trend, monitor two levels:Reactions at 155.00 (+/- 100 pips) to spot if the level attract further movement towards the channel lowsOn further mean-reversion higher, look at 155.40 which is the 50-H Moving average.For bulls, look at a break and close above the channel (155.50)Expect traders to wait for Core PCE for decisive moves.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Markets opened mixed after a mildly positive overnight session in Futures and Global Indexes trading.But after the ADP Miss confirming further next week's rate cuts and pricing in higher chances of another January cut (currently at 27% pricing), the fresh Services PMI beat sent conflicting signs to traders.The headline number came in at 52.6 (beating the 52.1 forecast), but the internals provided the real story. zoom_out_map US Data from this morning – December 3, 2025 – MarketPulse Economic Calendar On a positive note for the inflation outlook, the Prices Paid index declined significantly from 70.0 to 65.4, which confirms that tariff-led inflation was more of a one-time increase rather than a lasting effect—something that allows the Fed to be more flexible.This view was further solidified by an unchanged import prices report (0.0% vs 0.1% expected) also released at 10:00 A.M (Even if the data is from September).In other conflicting news, despite a way-more positive mood with the rate cut, Microsoft (MSFT) just sent a scary sign for the rebounding AI trend.The tech giant gapped lower by 2.80% after a news article reported that the market leader has lowered its sales growth targets for newer AI products due to slower customer adoption. zoom_out_map Microsoft (MSFT) 4H Chart, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView This puts the AI-Peak conversations right back on the table.The Nasdaq is getting dragged lower by this headline and is the only US index down on the current session, diverging sharply from a booming Dow Jones and Russell 2000. Rate cuts don't seem to be enough to offset such specific pessimistic news for the tech sector. zoom_out_map Mid-session Index performance (11:21 A.M) – Nasdaq lower. Source: TradingView Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of the Tech-heavy index as the divergence persists.Nasdaq Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) Daily Chart, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Index has rebounded remarkably from its November lows (23,841) and now trades about 7.40% higher.An ongoing dip-buying attempts are trying to lift the Index but is getting rejected.The price action remains above the higher timeframe pivot (25,000 Level) giving bulls the upper hand, particularly after breaking out of the November bear Channel.If the session doesn't close green, some profit-taking flows can easily take place.Let's see why on shorter timeframes.4H Timeframe and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView Mean-reversion buyers are stepping in as we near the London Fix.An attempt to break out of the Intermediate 25,000 (+/- 75 pts) Resistance is preventing the spreading of bearish flows as Microsoft attempts to correct the story that shook the Market at the open.Still, the bearish candle from this morning may form the beginning of a bearish intraday divergence which will need to be tracked closely as Traders await Friday's Core PCE report and next Wednesday's FOMC.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsResistance at 25,500 Gap +/- 75 pts (testing)Intermediate resistance and 4H MA 50 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300October 30 All-time Highs 26,283Support LevelsPivot 25,000 to 25,250 (4H MA 50 and 200)24,500 Main SupportNovember lows 23,841Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support1H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView The 1H Timeframe depicts a short-timeframe Hourly Bull Channel which acted as a trigger for the ongoing bullish rebound leaving buyers in control.Still, they will have to break the overnight futures Highs (25,645) if they want to re-integrate the broken May upwards Channel.For Bears, look for a close below 25,350 which should coincide with a Channel break.The Hourly Channel is the technical indicator to keep your eyes on for intraday trading.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (03/12/2025): In the most recent episode, TraderNick and Jonny discuss the demand for semiconductors following the AI stock rally, softening US labour data and the likely successor of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with current betting odds suggesting Kevin Hassett, a long-term Republican and Trump supporter, is the most likely to replace Powell in May. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Read More: GBP/USD reaches 1.33, on top as ADP Employment Miss sends the dollar in a limboGold prices are currently on a bullish rally having experienced a significant pullback and support test on Tuesday. The precious metal appears to have regained its shine as bulls returned to the party pushing prices to a high of $4240/oz in the early part of the US session.The Federal Reserve The current rally and supporting Gold’s valuation is the aggressive market expectation of impending monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. Current forecasts indicate an 88% probability of a US interest rate cut in December, with broader market consensus pricing in approximately 90 basis points of easing by the end of 2026. zoom_out_map Source: CME FedWatch Tool Market participants are expecting the FED to start cutting rates despite mixed rhetoric. The expectations do keep the US Dollar (USD) under broad pressure and force US Treasury yields to drift lower.US data continues to show subtle signs of weakness which further supports the rate cut narrative. US Manufacturing PMI data released this week showed that the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2%, marking the ninth straight month below 50.which is contractionary territory.In addition, the pace of new customer orders is slowing down, and the number of people employed continues to shrink. Although the upward pressure on prices (inflation) is easing, the overall economic trends are still worrying. These underlying numbers suggest that the risk of an economic downturn, or recession, is increasing. This growing recession risk is good news for precious metals like gold and silver, as it supports the case for their price to rise significantly over the long term (a long-term bullish case).There is also the case of the next Federal Reserve policymaker and comments by US officials around the Federal Reserve.The more comments we hear from members of the Trump administration regarding the Fed, the more likely market participants are to question the Fed's independence. This is another factor which could continue to support Gold prices in the short and medium term.US PCE Data and Geopolitical Risk We now know we will not receive any more official reports on job creation or consumer prices before the Federal Reserve's important policy meeting on December 10th. However, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, called the PCE data, is scheduled to be released later this week.Recent reports on consumer and producer prices (the CPI and PPI reports) showed softer-than-expected inflation. This suggests that the impact of government tariffs on overall price increases has been minimal that they are making a lot of noise but not actually causing prices to spike (more bark than bite). Therefore, analysts expect this week's core PCE deflator (the official inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely) for September to also reflect this trend of lower, easing inflation. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Geopolitical risk remains an area of focus as the Trump administration seems dead set on confrontation and a potential regime change in Venezuela. Irrespective of whether market participants agree with such a move or not is irrelevant but what is relevant is the risks this poses.Such risks usually have a tendency to lead to an increase in safe haven demand. Thus Gold prices could be a huge beneficiary if the US decides to mount a direct attack on Venezuela and is worth monitoring.Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is strong.Price action looks favorable with a trendline retest yesterday before a bullish continuation reinforcing the narrative for bullish price action moving forward.The period-14 RSI also shows signs that momentum remains bullish. A test of the 50 level also occurred yesterday with the RSI bouncing off this level, another sign of bullish momentum remaining in play.The next move for the precious metal will be an intriguing one.A four-hour candle close above the $4228/oz handle is needed if bulls are to push on. A rejection here could lead to another trendline test and bring the 50 and 100-day MAs into focus which rest at 4166 and 4136 respectively.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, December 3, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on Gold with 74% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-long suggests that Gold prices could continue to slide in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The week had started slowly in FX markets, characterized by mean-reverting, small up-and-down movements across all currencies as traders got back from their Thanksgiving break and awaited fresh data.The US Dollar was holding its range calmly, bouncing yesterday, but the landscape shifted dramatically today.The fresh monthly ADP Private Employment data delivered a shocker to the Market showing a contraction of -32,000 jobs (vs +10,000 gain exp).This reading only anchors the rate cut expectations for next Wednesday's FOMC meeting (December 10th), effectively locking in the decision.With US Yields diving lower on the news, traders are now starting to aggressively price in further cuts for later meetings in 2026 – the following will be on January 28th, as the debate over December becomes clear—the focus has shifted to how deep the recessionary cracks might be if US rates stay high.These dynamics have taken Sterling (GBP) to the top of the majors, sitting at the other extreme of the Greenback. But why is the GBP performing so well? zoom_out_map Daily FX currency performance (9:08 A.M) – Source: Finviz Beyond the Dollar weakness, the Pound is enjoying its own tailwinds.The recently announced trade deal with the US regarding 0 tariffs on pharmaceuticals—which exempts UK exports from tariffs in exchange for pricing adjustments—has provided a massive boost to GBP/USD.This comes as a relief for the Pound after the pair had dropped considerably throughout October, coming close to breaching the 1.30 level. Furthermore, the recent UK Budget had already restored some confidence in government spending, a sentiment exacerbated by Bank of England rates, which are now priced to remain the highest among OECD nations as inflation remains stickier than elsewhere.Enough talk, let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis of GBP/USD to spot where things could head towards for this Major FX pair. Read More:Gold Price Forecast: Bullion retreats to $4,205 on profit-taking; US data hints at December rate cutSilver (XAG/USD) is the sole performer, heading toward a new ATHCrypto recovery: Dead Cat Bounce or the start of a Buy-the-Dip?GBP/USD Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map GBP/USD Daily Chart. December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView Cable has now rallied 2.20% from its November lows (1.30130) and reaching the 1.33 psychological level.Last month's trading was cataclysmic for Sterling, stuck in a downward trend but after its trough in early November, a following higher low as dovish bets raced back for the Fed was enough fuel to propel the currency higher to a breakout of its September descending Channel.However, some crosscurrents are facing buyers:The 200-Day Moving Average is acting as immediate resistance (Daily Highs at 1.33215)The 50-Day MA recently posted a death cross (crossing below the 200-Day MA).A close above the 200-MA should be enough to invalidate the mean-reverting elements with the next resistance being 1,000 pips higher to 1.34.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map GBP/USD 4H Chart. December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView Conflicting signs arise on intraday charts: a break-retest of the channel points to buyer strength toward higher levels, supported by a bullish 50-200 MA Cross on the 4H timeframe.On the other hand, a 4H bearish divergence is forming a could slow down the action.After marking the technical levels, let's check out the shorter timeframe to spot a potential gameplan.Levels to watch for the GBPUSD:Resistance LevelsDaily highs and 200-Day MA 1.33201.34 Key PivotResistance 1.3450 to 1.34650Resistance at the 1.36 zoneKey Pivot Zone: 1.3450 to 1.3650Support LevelsPivotal Support 1.3260-1.33 (Immediate test)1.32 4H MA 50 and 200S2 1.3170 - 1.31850S3 at 1.30 Zone (+/- 300 pips)1H Chart zoom_out_map GBP/USD 1H Chart. December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView Buyers have taken control of the action with the ongoing tight bull channel action across intraday timeframes, with the entire short-term trend evolving within a fresh upward hourly channel.Any retracement may hint at a test of the 1.3260 Support lows while a break above the 200-Day MA (1.3320) would purse the current buyer strength.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.