No need to pay much attention to the data agenda for the session here. Australian data point is unlikely to move financial maekts much at all upon release.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD pushed higher today, extending above last week’s high and breaking through a swing area between 0.7077 and 0.70908. The move also carried the pair back into a broader swing zone dating from April through early June, where much of the price action was contained between 0.7077 and 0.7200.The high today reached 0.7129, adding to the bullish technical picture. As long as the price can remain above the 0.7077–0.70908 breakout area, buyers remain firmly in control. Holding that support would keep the focus on further upside within the broader range toward 0.7200.In the video above, I break down the technical levels driving the AUDUSD, why the bias remains tilted in favor of the buyers, and what needs to happen to keep the upside momentum intact. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

USD/JPY is at the highs of the day, up 25 pips to 159.55 as the intervention recovery continues. More importantly, the pair has edged above the post-intervention high of 159.57 as it continues to test both Japan's ministry of finance and the US treasury.What scares me about this pair at the moment is that I don't know what the strategy of either the MoF or Treasury is. Yes, they both want the pair lower but how much? How far are they willing to go?Japan doesn't have limited reserves and may be threatening to sell Treasuries.  The US, in turn, is using euro reserves to buy yen in a move that's also not unlimited and threatens a rift with Europe. It's also not clear why the flows are so strong that have driven USD/JPY higher. Is it simply a carry trade or is there something happening in the AI financing trade that's causing some one-time flows that are artificially holding down the yen.Technically, the line in the sand will be 160 in the short term and if that breaks, we could see accelerated gains once again. Until then, I'd expect the market to continue tip-toeing in that direction. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil prices are closing sharply higher, with WTI accelerating to the upside in the final hours of trading. The price settled at $84.50, up $2.10 or 2.55% on the day.The Strait of Hormuz remains the key fundamental driver, as sharply reduced shipping traffic continues to fuel concerns about potential Middle East supply disruptions. At the same time, U.S.-Iran negotiations remain stalled, helping to keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices.There are, however, forces working to limit the upside. Gulf producers continue to find alternative routes to move barrels to market, easing some of the immediate supply concerns. Meanwhile, softer expectations for global demand and plans for increased OPEC+ production remain potential headwinds.As a result, crude remains caught between two competing forces: Middle East supply risks are providing support, while demand concerns and the prospect of additional OPEC+ supply are working to cap the upside.From a technical perspective, WTI spent much of the session trading above and below its 100-hour moving average at $82.47, before buyers took firmer control late in the day. The subsequent surge carried the price above last week's swing high near $84.54, with today's high extending to $84.88.The rally also pushed WTI above the 50% midpoint of the decline from the July 23 high to the August 5 low, which comes in at $83.87. That break adds to the bullish technical tone. The midpoint level was also a close support level. Staying above keeps the buyers firmly in control. A move below could see the price that back then importance 100 hour moving average.SUMMARY: Going forward, $83.87 now becomes an important support level. Staying above that midpoint keeps the buyers in control and leaves the door open for additional upside. A move back below it would take some of the momentum out of today's late-session breakout. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Have a look at this chart.It shows  It is showing 69.1 GW of nominal data-centre IT capacity scheduled for delivery from August of this year through 2028.The problem (or one of the problems) is going to be powering it all. The US had roughly 35–44 GW of nominal data-centre IT capacity in 2024 and projects 56–132 GW by 2030. That's a potential tripling and you can see it unfolding in this chart.I'm skeptical it will get built on time at all, as shipping a broken app update is much easier than finishing a building and procuring all the chips and racks to run it. If that somehow takes place then the next bottleneck is even tighter -- power.Increasingly, states are demanding that data centers supply their own power and now they're trying to co-generate, usually with natural gas turbines. The problem is that there is only so much manufacturing capacity for power and the backlogs are now huge. Within that, there are all kinds of components as well, including transformers that are particularly backed up.If somehow they pull that off, the final final potential problem is fuel for the turbines. If 75% of this is powered by natural gas, taht's arond 8.6 Bcf/d. The good news is that there is a surplus of gas right now, the bad news is that surplus is already going to be eaten up by LNG exports as those are slated to balloon with new facilities coming online also in the 2025-2029 window. LNG liquefaction capacity is on track to add about 13.9 Bcf/d between 2025 and 2029, according to the EIA.The latest EIA data puts US production at 116.0 Bcf/d in 2027 so this additional data center demand would eat about 5% and it's more than the entire EIA increase forecast in 2026 and 2027.Add it all up and the US will need to add 10 Bcf/d in production in two years. It can be done and gas is plentiful but there needs to be a price signal and front-month gas now at $2.69 isn't it. If the hyperscalers actually pull off the capex, I could see a floor for gas near $5 and a range of $5-8 depending on the weather. It's an interesting spot to watch but it's a hard one to trade because I have some real skepticism that the data centers get built on time. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The mood in markets is darkening at the moment and I suspect it's oil that's the tail wagging the dog.WTI crude oil is now up $1.33 to $83.74 on the day and at a session high. It was as low as $81.50 earlier but has been bid up strongly in the past hour in a sign that Iran negotiations aren't going anywhere. There's a sense of disbelief that we're in a standoff right now and Iran is talking about escalating.The gains came as Iran has reportedly seized a UAE-owned tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state news agency Fars reported. That's some backing to the idea that they're willing to go into an offensive mode.The US is threatening more economic actions while Iran is threatening more military actions and no one wants to sail in the region.With the rise in oil and Hormuz risks, US Treasury yields are at the highs of the day, with 10s up 2 bps to 4.72% and 30s hitting 5.30% for the first time since the financial crisis. That's starting to weigh on equity markets with the S&P 500 down 0.4%, or 29 points.Some losers include:MSFT -3.3%META -4.0%AMZN -1.6%V -1.0%TSLA -1.0%The shape of the selling looks like steady deliveraging to me ahead of what could be some firework in the autumn. Meanwhile, retail continues to pile into memory names with Micron up 4.9%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Recall that last week, Sandisk held its Investor Day, and investors clearly liked what they heard. The company used the event to highlight the longer-term growth opportunity tied to AI and, perhaps more importantly for the stock, laid out an aggressive financial framework for FY2028 through FY2030.On the product side, Sandisk expects AI inference to significantly increase demand for flash storage in data centers. The company sees the enterprise data-center flash market potentially reaching 1.2 zettabytes by 2030 and is developing higher-density NAND and High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) technology to capture that growth.Sandisk is also moving toward longer-term customer agreements designed to improve revenue visibility and reduce some of the traditional volatility associated with the NAND business. Those agreements already cover approximately 50% of expected FY2027 bits and roughly two-thirds of FY2028 bits.For investors, however, the financial targets were arguably the biggest takeaway. For FY2028 through FY2030, Sandisk is targeting:Mid-to-high teens revenue growthNon-GAAP gross margins potentially reaching ~80%Non-GAAP operating margins potentially reaching ~75% Operating expenses potentially falling to approximately 5% of revenueAdjusted free-cash-flow margins of ~50%100% of excess cash returned to shareholders after funding investment in the business Those are ambitious targets, but if Sandisk can deliver, the financial model would be exceptionally profitable. The combination of mid-to-high teens revenue growth, operating margins potentially reaching 75%, and free-cash-flow margins around 50% would be impressive. The commitment to return excess cash to shareholders provides another potential catalyst.And judging by the price action since Investor Day, traders have taken notice.In last week's post, Sandisk had moved back above its 100-day moving average, currently at $1,409.30, as well as its 200-hour moving average at $1,457.80. Holding above those levels kept the technical bias tilted in favor of the buyers.The price then extended above the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the June all-time high at $1,519.71, with that level holding as support into Thursday's close. The stock surged 13.67% on Thursday, followed that with another 7.39% gain on Friday, and is up more than 9% today.From Thursday's low just ahead of the Investor Day event, the stock has now risen more than 34%.Not a bad run.So what comes next technically?Looking at the hourly chart, today's high reached $1,827.99, stopping about $10 short of the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the June 22 all-time high. That retracement comes in at $1,838.46 and is now the next key upside hurdle.A break above $1,838.46 would open the door toward an important swing area between approximately $1,863 and $1,952.That zone has a history of defining both support and resistance. The lower end initially acted as resistance in early June before becoming support later in the month. After the price eventually broke below the area in early July, subsequent rebounds stalled near the upper end on July 9 and July 10. From there, the stock began the sharp decline that ultimately took it to just above $1,000 on July 29, as valuation concerns and a broader correction in AI and semiconductor shares weighed on the stock.Since that July 29 low, however, the technical picture has changed dramatically. Sandisk shares are now up more than 80%, with last week's Investor Day providing the latest fundamental catalyst for the surge.The buyers clearly have control, but they are now approaching an important technical test.The 61.8% retracement at $1,838.46 is the first hurdle. Get and stay above that level, and the $1,863-$1,952 swing area becomes the next major target zone.After an 80% rally from the July low and a 34% surge since just before Investor Day, those levels should provide an important test of whether the buyers can keep the momentum going — or whether some profit-taking finally slows the advance. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

As London/European traders head for the exits, the major European stock indices are closing mostly lower. France's CAC 40 and Spain's Ibex led the declines, while Italy's FTSE MIB managed to finish virtually unchanged.The closing levels show:German DAX: -0.27% at 26,369.65France CAC 40: -0.66% at 8,579.61UK FTSE 100: -0.28% at 10,720.31Spain's Ibex: -0.73% at 20,010.30Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.01% at 53,586.98In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields moved higher across the board. Italy saw the largest move among the major markets, with its 10-year yield rising 3.3 basis points.Germany: 3.222%, +1.0 bpFrance: 4.067%, +1.5 bpsUK: 5.064%, +1.8 bpsSpain: 3.666%, +0.8 bpItaly: 4.028%, +3.3 bpsIn the forex market, the U.S. dollar is mostly lower against the major currencies. The Australian (+0.37%), Swiss frand (+0.36%) and New Zealand (+0.25%) dollars are the strongest performers but each are well off the day's extremes.  The JPY is the only currency that is lower vs the USD with a modest decline of 0.06% on the day.  A snapshot of the change in the major currency pairs shows: EURUSD: +0.10% at 1.1581USDJPY: +0.06% at 159.39GBPUSD: +0.15% at 1.3550USDCHF: -0.36% at 0.8102USDCAD: -0.02% at 1.3871AUDUSD: +0.37% at 0.7107NZDUSD: +0.25% at 0.5904As European traders head home, U.S. stocks are mixed. The Dow, S&P and Russell 2000 are lower, while the Nasdaq indices are holding onto modest gains.Dow: -204 points or -0.38% that 53523S&P: -11 points or -0.14% at 7774.90Nasdaq Composite: +44 points or 0.16% had 26772Nasdaq 100: +1.05 points or 0.35% at 30152Russell 2000: -10.36 points or -0.34% at 3058.03Technology shares are providing some support, but that strength has not been enough to pull the broader market uniformly higher. The Russell 2000 is the weakest of the major U.S. indices, while the Nasdaq 100 is the best performer.Fundamentally,Canada's inflation ran slightly hotter than expected in July, with headline CPI rising 3.0% year-over-year versus 2.9% expected, up from 2.8% in June, while prices increased 0.5% month-over-month. The Bank of Canada's underlying measures also firmed, with core CPI rising to 2.3% y/y, median CPI at 2.0%, trim at 1.9%, and common CPI at 2.7%. Much of the headline pressure came from energy and transportation, led by a 25.7% y/y rise in gasoline prices, while travel tours and airfares also climbed sharply, partly reflecting higher fuel costs and World Cup-related demand. Excluding gasoline, however, inflation remained considerably more subdued, with falling rents, accommodation costs and vehicle prices providing offsets. Overall, the report was somewhat hotter than expected but heavily influenced by energy-related pressures, leaving the Bank of Canada in neutral territory for now while adding to market expectations for a potential rate hike later this year.The Empire Manufacturing Index jumped to 20.6 in August, well above the 11.0 estimate and up from 15.6 in July, marking the strongest growth in New York manufacturing in more than four years. New orders remained solid and employment continued to expand, while the six-month outlook improved. However, rising prices paid, growing order backlogs, longer delivery times and worsening supply availability point to increasing cost and supply-chain pressures despite the strong headline reading.The NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 35 in August, above the 33 estimate and up from 34 in July, signaling a modest improvement in homebuilder sentiment. Current single-family sales improved to 39, while expectations for sales over the next six months held at 43 and prospective buyer traffic remained weak at 23. Despite the uptick, sentiment remains deeply depressed, with elevated mortgage rates and rising long-term Treasury yields continuing to weigh heavily on housing demand and affordability. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The price of gold pushed to a high near $4,450 last week before reversing lower and falling back below two important technical levels: the 100-day moving average at $4,390.87 and the 100-hour moving average at $4,384.33. That decline took gold down toward $4,350, where buyers stepped back in.In trading today, the technical picture has improved. Gold has moved back above both the 100-hour and 100-day moving averages, and the renewed buying momentum has carried the price to a high of $4,427.65. The current price is trading near $4,422.From a technical perspective, the move back above those key moving averages is a bullish development and shifts the short-term bias more firmly in favor of the buyers.The $4,384-$4,391 area now becomes the key close-risk zone for buyers. Staying above those moving averages keeps the buyers in control and supports a continued move higher. Conversely, a move back below both levels would weaken the bullish technical picture and shift the short-term bias back to the downside. If that occurs, the rising 200-hour moving average at $4,336.19 would become an important downside target.Recall that moving-average support has played an important role in gold's recent advance. Back on August 5, the price based near $4,061, where the 100- and 200-hour moving averages helped establish a floor before the subsequent move higher.On the topside, the first major target is last week's high near $4,450. A break above that level would put the 200-day moving average at $4,491 firmly in play. Gold has not traded above its 200-day moving average since June 5, making that level particularly important. A sustained break above it would strengthen the bullish technical structure and open the door for additional upside momentum.Key levels:Bullish above: $4,384-$4,391 First upside target: $4,450 Major upside target: 200-day MA at $4,491 Downside target on a failed break: 200-hour MA at $4,336.19 In the video above, I break down the technical levels in play and show how the move back above the key moving averages has shifted the bias, while outlining the risk levels and upside targets traders should be watching. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The NZDUSD is trading higher by around 0.50% on the day at 0.5919, with buyers maintaining the upper hand after the pair shifted its short-term technical bias to the upside late last week.On Friday, the price moved back above both its 100-hour moving average at 0.5872 and 200-hour moving average at 0.58757. Reclaiming those key moving averages tilted the short-term bias in favor of the buyers and turned attention toward the late-July/early-August swing highs near 0.59066.In trading today, the NZDUSD extended above that 0.59066 level, adding to the bullish momentum. The move higher, however, has run into the next important resistance zone — a swing area dating back to early April between 0.59187 and 0.59280. The high so far has reached 0.5925, putting the pair squarely within that resistance area but still short of a clean breakout.The subsequent pullback during the early North American session took the price back toward the former resistance at 0.59066, but buyers stepped in ahead of that level. That is a positive technical development. Former resistance is so far acting as support, keeping buyers firmly in control.The next challenge is clear. A sustained move above 0.59280 would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door for further upside, with the late-May high near 0.5993 becoming the next major target.For now, the technical picture remains tilted to the upside:Buyers remain in control above 0.59066.Immediate resistance: 0.59187–0.59280. Break above 0.59280: Opens the door toward 0.5993. Move back below 0.59066: Would take some of the steam out of today's bullish move and weaken the short-term technical picture. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

This is the week we find out whether the US consumer is bending, breaking or doing what it always does: Surprising.On Friday, US retail sales fell 0.6% compared to a 0.1% rise expected and core numbers were also soft. That contrasts with months of outperformance and leaves a bit of a question mark on where spending really stands.This week, we will get some corporate help in understanding how consumers are feeling. The earnings schedule:Tuesday, before the open: Home DepotWednesday, before the open: Target, TJX, Lowe's, Estée LauderThursday, before the open: Walmart, Advance Auto PartsThursday, after the close: Ross StoresFriday, before the open: BJ's WholesaleWalmart management has already told us shoppers are showing signs of financial distress, citing changes in gas-buying behavior, and responded with price cuts and the new housing market is bombed out so the bar is low. That might mean room for upside but could also show that inflation is really biting.HD starts things off and it's the cleanest read on the big-ticket, rate-sensitive consumer at a time when borrowing rates are rising. Housing turnover remains depressed and the home improvement cycle has been stuck in neutral for the better part of two years.The problem is the price. Home Depot trades at roughly 23.5–24x forward earningsTarget carries the highest risk — it's the only one that raised full-year guidance last quarter, after comparable sales grew 5.6% on 4.4% traffic growth and a meaningful EPS beat. That guidance raise is now a liability. Target's mix skews discretionary — apparel, home goods, the stuff that gets cut first when budgets tighten. Shares have nearly doubled off the lows from late last year. Walmart is a real-time census of American consumption — grocery, general merchandise, pharmacy, e-commerce, and increasingly a high-margin advertising and membership business that the market values as much as the retail operation. The company is fairly candid about how consumers are doing, though I find it sandbags a bit so I wouldn't over-index on some moaning around low-end consumers. Shares have been consolidating so far this year after a healthy run-up. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 34Details:Current single family home sales 39 versus 37 in JulyHome sales over next 6 months 43  versus 43 in July Index of prospective buyers 23 versus 23 in JulyUS 30-year yields hit a fresh cycle high today so that's not going to help the housing market. The economy continues to tick along so consumers may eventually get used to +6% mortgages as that's not something that's going away any time soon. Overall, these numbers are in a deep recession and it's a part of the economy that's in terrible shape despite the uptick this month. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF spent most of the latter part of last week trading above its 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart below), with the price largely holding that support from Tuesday onward. There were brief dips below the moving average on Wednesday and again on Friday, but both breaks were modest and short-lived and quickly reversed. The pair ultimately closed Friday above the higher 100-hour moving average (blue line on chart), currently at 0.81218, while the 200-hour moving average sits at 0.81075.That technical picture shifted in trading today.The USDCHF rotated lower during the early Asian session, breaking first below the 100-hour moving average and then the 200-hour moving average. Those breaks increased the bearish momentum and sent the price down to a low of 0.8071, just above a key swing area between 0.8060 and 0.80699.Buyers leaned against that support and pushed the price back higher, but the rebound has so far stalled near the broken 200-hour moving average at 0.81075. The recovery reached roughly 0.8106 before sellers reemerged. The price has since rotated back down and currently trades near 0.80945.That makes the 200-hour moving average an important short-term barometer. Staying below 0.81075 keeps the sellers in firmer control and would have traders looking back toward the 0.8060–0.80699 swing area. A break below that zone would open the door toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the late-May low to the July high at 0.80491.Below that, attention would turn toward 0.8029–0.8034, which represents the lower end of the broader trading range that has largely confined the pair over the past two months.For buyers to regain some control, the price needs to get back above the 200-hour moving average at 0.81075, followed by the 100-hour moving average at 0.81218. A sustained move above both would shift the technical bias back in the buyers' favor and put the 0.8138–0.81513 swing area back in play. A break above that resistance would then have traders targeting the July swing highs extending up to 0.82063.For now, with the price below both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, the technical bias remains tilted to the downside. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The last few days have clearly belonged to the sellers, who have continued to push the USDCAD lower and maintain the strongest technical hand (see prior posts and videos HERE and HERE).On Friday, I highlighted the increasingly important support developing below the market:The low today reached 1.3868, briefly moving below the bottom of a swing area between 1.38683 and 1.3877. However, the decline has so far stalled ahead of two increasingly important downside targets: a channel trendline near 1.3859 and the 200-day moving average at 1.3852. That 200-day moving average is particularly important.I also added:I would not be surprised to see some apprehension on the first test of that level. Sellers who entered at higher levels may look to take some profits, while dip buyers may lean against the moving average looking for a corrective bounce. Importantly, the level also gives those buyers a clearly defined area where risk can be limited.That test has now arrived.The channel trendline and the 200-day moving average have both been tested today, and so far they are holding as support. That makes this area the key technical barometer for the USDCAD today and going forward.For dip buyers leaning against that support, the question now becomes: What would give them some added confidence?The first step would be a move back above the broken swing area between 1.3868 and 1.3877. Getting back above that zone would give buyers some breathing room and shift the focus toward the 50% retracement of the move up from the May 1 low at 1.3899.From there, the upside roadmap becomes increasingly difficult. Buyers would still need to work through the 100-hour moving average at 1.3912, followed closely by the 100-day moving average at 1.39175.So, the road back higher is not an easy one, but the levels are clearly defined:1.3868–1.3877: First hurdle for dip buyers 1.3899: 50% retracement and next upside target 1.3912: 100-hour moving average 1.39175: 100-day moving average On the downside, the 200-day moving average remains the line in the sand. A sustained break below that level would reinforce the sellers' control and open the door for another leg lower. The next major downside target would then come in at the 61.8% retracement at 1.38169.For now, the battle is centered on the 200-day moving average. Hold it, and dip buyers have a chance to build a corrective rebound. Break it, and the sellers remain firmly in control with 1.38169 next on the radar. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

There is a decent argument that if the Fed remains asleep at the wheel and the AI boom continues for another year, we could inch down the capital stack a tad and get high-quality bonds or notes paying +7%, maybe more.Once you get to those levels, the pull towards bonds and away from equities is a powerful thing, especially in an aging demographic. Now at the same time, everyone is drunk on equity market gains and 7% sounds like two days of holiding Micron stock but it's a number that really compounds. In 10 years, it's nearly a double.  This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Take Profit Trader, a futures proprietary trading firm, has reduced the minimum number of trading days required to pass its evaluation from five to three. For traders already familiar with the funded trading world, they understand this means that taking a payout just got two days shorter. For everyone else, this new program change is a good excuse to explain what a prop firm actually is, what an evaluation measures, and why a three-day minimum matters. What a Prop Firm Is, and Why Evaluations Exist Anyone who is interested in learning to trade futuresquickly finds out that it requires a personal bank account with large amounts of available capital. Large enough to absorb margin requirements, and the losses that come with learning how to trade. Proprietary trading firms, usually shortened to prop firms, address this huge barrier to entry for new traders. Traders at prop firms trade futures up to 23 hrs a day with the firm's capital instead of their own money, and keep the majority of the profits they earn, usually 80-90%, with the firm taking the rest. This means a trader's personal risk is limited to just the fee they pay to participate in the evaluation phase of the prop firm’s program. After the evaluation is passed, the firm pays out trading profits earned, and absorbs all trading losses. In exchange, the firm sets rules designed to protect its capital and only approves funded accounts to traders who, through the evaluation, have shown they have the skills and discipline to trade responsibly. That’s why the evaluation is the first step in a prop firm’s program. A trader pays a fee to open a test account, typically $150-$360 per month depending on which account size the trader wants. Test accounts are in a simulated environment with realistic market data, so no real capital is at risk on either side. In this stage the trader’s job is to reach a defined profit target, while staying inside the firm's evaluation rules. Pass, and the trader moves to a funded account. At TPT (Take Profit Trader), once you’re funded, the monthly fee goes away, and with the new 3-day evals it’s possible to pass your test quickly, and never pay for a second month. At Take Profit Trader a funded account is called PRO, which is still a simulated trading environment, but the trader can request real payouts. Yes, a trader can take profits from the prop firm even though they aren’t earning for the firm in the live market, or paying the firm any fees. In PRO you can take payouts from your first day, and daily. The goal in PRO is for atrader to further improve their skills and get invited by TPT to a PRO+ account to trade in the live market where the data is real, the trades are real, and the capital is real. If all of this is getting confusing, here are the key points of the TPT program: ● Pay a fee to take a trading test in a simulator. ● When you pass the test, you’re funded. ● Funded accounts are still simulated, but the profits are real. You can withdraw them. ● Perform well and you get invited into a live-market account. ● In the live-market you trade TPT’s money, not your own, and TPT covers any losses. The bottom line? For just the cost of a $150-$360 test account, funded traders can get access to $25k-$150k of leverage, per account, and take payouts on profits they earn. The Rules, in Plain Language Take Profit Trader's evaluation centers around a set of test rules. The first rule is profit target, a fixed dollar amount based on account size. A 50,000 dollar evaluation account carries a 3,000 dollar profit target, for example, with larger accounts scaling up from there. This rule is designed to answer the question “can you trade profitably?” The rest of the test rules are designed to answer the question "can you protect profit?” Position size is capped by the account size, ranging from 3-15 contracts per account, so a trader can’t take huge swings to reach the profit target. A trailing drawdown sets a max loss buffer calculated at the end of each trading day. For example, on a $75k account with a profit target of $4,500, the max amount you’re allowed to lose in one day is $2,500. Trading is limited to approved futures products on major exchanges, within a defined daily window, with all positions closed by the end of each day. Then there is the consistency rule, which has two parts. Traders need to hit a minimum number of trading days to pass their test. At Take Profit Trader this used to be ten days, then shrank to five days, and now it’s just three days. The days do not need to be consecutive, and there is no deadline to finish. The second part of the rule hasn’t changed. No single day can account for more than half of the total profit target. This is because if a trader hit the profit target from one big session, that’s probably luck, not skill. Smaller but consistent profit means a trader is likely following a better trading plan, with real risk management habits. The last rule in the TPT evaluation is no counter positions. Holding opposite positions in related products across multiple accounts is prohibited for compliance reasons. Basically you can’t go long in one account on a product, while going short in another account on a similar product. How Traders Tend to Approach PassingNone of what follows is financial advice, and no approach guarantees a pass. But traders who move through evaluations successfully tend to share a few habits. The most common habit is breaking the profit target into daily pieces instead of chasing it all at once. On that $50k account with its $3,000 profit target, a trader might aim for something like $1,200 one day, $1,000 the next, and $800 on a third. These numbers are purely illustrative, but they show the shape of a clean three-day pass. ● The daily minimum is met ● The best day sits near 40% of the total Sizing is the second habit. The contract cap is a ceiling, not a goal. Many experienced traders operate well below the cap and often start with micro contracts, which are smaller versions of standard futures. Trading small may limit how much any single loss can take out of the drawdown buffer, and it gives newer traders room to learn the mechanics without large swings or blowing their test. Risk definition is the third. Because the drawdown is measured at the close of each day, traders often decide their maximum acceptable loss per trade before entering, and keep it small relative to the buffer. Handled that way, a bad trade can stay a bad trade rather than becoming a failed account. The last habit is respecting the clock. Positions cannot carry overnight, and anything still open is flattened automatically at 4:55 PM Eastern. Traders who close positions on their own terms instead, and who know the specific hours of the products they trade, avoid being auto-closed in a fast market at a price they did not choose. A Shorter Timeline, Not a Lower Bar It is tempting to see an evaluation as a gate to get past by swinging big to get it over with. That approach may occasionally work, but it tends to end accounts more often than it funds them. The more productive mindset is to view the eval as a teacher that’s there to help you learn, and build a foundation of solid habits that will carry into funded trading. A trader who passes by working with the rules, trading small, and with consistency, arrives at a funded account already practicing the habits that tend to keep accounts alive. At Take Profit Trader, the rules didn’t get easier, the timeline just got shorter. Some traders may pass in three days, others may take three weeks, and the program treats both paths the same. To mark the launch of 3-day evals, Take Profit Trader is running a flash sale with 50% off all evaluations and no activation fee using the code 50AND3. This sale runs 8/17-8/24, 2026. Full details are available at takeprofittrader.com. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance of any trader or strategy does not indicate future results. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Some comments from a senior Iranian official (unnamed), cited by Reuters:Iran has decided to shift its policy from defensive to a 'fully offensive one'Pressuring US or relying on mediators to reach a lasting peace is not realisticHas set a deadline of a few weeks for a full implementation of the MOUAll entities will be prepared to escalate tensions in the region if diplomacy failsIran will not wait for US to continue the naval blockade indefinitelyThere is some inflamatory rhetroric here but there's clearly still some diplomacy in play. Trump is also threatening to bomb Oman if it gets in the way. It's hard to see any positive end to this but the market won't care until oil hits $100 or $150. WTI was last up $0.83 to $83.02. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US Empire Manufacturing surver results shows:Prior month 15.60NY Fed Manufacturing index 20.60 vs 11.00 estimate. Details: New orders 17.3 vs 22.2 last monthPrices Paid 58.6 vs 52.3 last monthPrices received 22.7 vs 27.6 last monthEmployment 9.3 vs 11.4 last month. Average employee workweek 6.9 versus 2.8 last monthShipments 11.7 vs 24.4 last month. Unfilled orders 15.5 versus 5.0 last month.Delivery time 20.6 versus 13.0 last month.Inventories -5.2 versus 4.0 last month.Supply availability -13.4 versus -10.0 last monthLooking 6 months forward the survey showed: General business conditions 32.1 versus 27.9 last month. New orders 37.1 versus 33.2 last month.Shipments 33.7 versus 30.6 last monthprices paid 57.7 versus 53.0 last month.Prices received 48.7 versus 41.9 last month.Employment 28.2 versus 14.4 last month.Average employee workweek 1.0 versus 2.0 last month.Capital expenditures 16.5 versus 15.0 last month.Supply availability -9.3 versus -8.0 last month.Inventories 7.2 versus 10.0 last month.Delivery time 7.2 versus -4.0 last month.Unfilled orders 19.6 versus -3.0 last monthFrom NY Fed economic research advisor Richard Deitz:“New York State manufacturing activity increased at its fastest pace in over four years in August. Employment continued to pick up modestly. However, delivery times were substantially longer and supply availability continued to worsen.” New orders remained strong at 17.3, while shipments came in at 11.7, signaling solid demand and production. Unfilled orders jumped 11 points to 15.5, indicating a growing backlog. Delivery times rose sharply to 20.6, suggesting significant delays. Inventories declined during the month. Supply conditions deteriorated, with the supply availability index falling to -13.4. Bottom line: New York manufacturing showed strong growth and healthy demand in August, but rising backlogs, longer delivery times, and worsening supply availability point to increasing supply-chain pressures. That was reflective in the Prices Paid index moving higher, although prices received did fall.  This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.8%CPI m/m +0.5% vs +0.4% expected (prior was -0.4%)BOC core +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% priorBOC core +2.3% y/y vs +2.1% priorCPI median +2.0% vs +1.9% expectedCPI trim +1.9% vs +1.8% expectedCPI common +2.7% vs +2.6% priorCanadian inflation has been tracking the rise in oil prices but is insulated somewhat by falling home prices and rents in some parts of the country. The Bank of Canada looks to be firmly in neutral territory at the moment but with the chance of a hike by December rising to 70% and 65 bps of hikes priced in over the next year.For this report, prices for gasoline grew at a faster rate in July of +25.7% y/y compared with June at +20.5% y/y. In a related move, prices for travel tours rose at a faster pace in July (+15.2%) compared with June (+6.8%), likely also aided by the World Cup boost. There are more concrete signs of inflation hitting airfares as well as they're up 12.0% versus 9.6% in June.The bulk of inflation remains in transportation but food and recreation are also adding.If you exclude gasoline, the picture looks benign but that little kink in gasoline prices was a gasoline holiday announced by the Carney environment that's set to end on Sept 7.In terms of m/m granularity, Gasoline +3.6% — the biggest contributor by farTravel tours +11.3% — World CupAir transportation +9.0% — higher jet fuel costs feeding throughTelephone services +3.4% -- The telecom price war finally ending?Fresh fruit +4.7% — the biggest July m/m move since 2011, driven by berries and melonsSo this is a miss but it looks like it's mostly Iran related. There are some downside offsets too:Rent -0.5%Traveller accommodation -4.0%Passenger vehicle purchases -0.4%Women's clothing -1.8%Fresh vegetables -2.6% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The U.S. dollar is starting the new trading week on the defensive, trading lower against all of the major currencies as Friday's weaker U.S. retail sales data continues to reverberate through the markets.The EURUSD is up 0.18%, while the GBPUSD is higher by 0.19%. The Japanese yen is also modestly stronger, with the USDJPY down 0.05%. The biggest mover is the Australian dollar, with the AUDUSD up 0.62%.The AUDUSD move appears to be less about fresh Australian news and more about the combination of broad U.S. dollar selling and a relatively hawkish RBA backdrop. Friday's disappointing U.S. retail sales report has traders scaling back expectations for another Fed rate hike. The probability of a September increase has fallen to around 30%, from roughly 50% before the data. U.S. yields are modestly lower as a result, helping to put additional pressure on the dollar.For the Australian dollar, the move is being amplified by the policy divergence between the Fed and RBA. The RBA remains relatively hawkish, while expectations for additional Fed tightening are being pared back. Technically, the price did break above a swing area between 0.7100 and 0.7113 (see red numbered circles and yellow area on the chart below) and the 61.8% at 0.7119. In today's Kickstart video, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, along with the other major currency pairs, and outline the bias, risk levels and targets — the three things every trader should be aware of as the new trading week gets underway.Overnight, the economic news was highlighted by a batch of weaker-than-expected data out of China (which does not support the AUDUSD run higher). Fixed Asset Investment fell 6.7% YTD/Y, weaker than the -6.2% estimate and -5.7% previously. Industrial Production slowed to 4.5% Y/Y versus 5.0% expected and 5.3% previously, while Retail Sales rose just 0.6% Y/Y, well below the 1.5% forecast and down from 1.0% previously.China's unemployment rate also ticked higher to 5.2% from 5.0%, above the 5.1% estimate, while New Home Prices fell 0.18% M/M after a 0.15% decline previously. Overall, the data continues to point to softness in domestic demand, investment and the property sector.In the U.S. stock market, futures are mixed, but technology shares are outperforming:Dow: -130 pointsS&P: +3.49 pointsNasdaq 100: +150 pointsSandisk continues it's run to the upside ignited after the companies Investor Day last week (see post here).  Shares are up 4.1% in premarket trading.  Nvidia shares are up 0.71% as it and OpenAI look to finalize a data center in Ohio.  Micron shares are up 2.92%,  Marvell shares are up 1.68%. Bloom Energy is up 4.29% recouping the 2.66% fall on FridayIn the U.S. debt market, Treasury yields are modestly lower across the curve:2-year: 4.1626%, down 0.8 basis points5-year: 4.3568%, down 0.7 basis points10-year: 4.6882%, down 0.8 basis points30-year: 5.2635%, down 0.3 basis pointsThe moves are relatively modest, but the lower yields are consistent with the softer dollar and the scaling back of expectations for additional Fed tightening. The expectation for a September hike is down to 30%.  In other markets, crude oil is up $0.16 at $82.56, after trading as high as $83.23 and as low as $81.50.Gold is also benefiting from the softer dollar, rising $26.21, or 0.60%, to $4,402.37, while silver is up 1.64% at $65.77. Bitcoin is up 1.26% at $63,626.On today's North American economic calendar, the main event will be Canadian CPI at 8:30 AM ET. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.4% M/M, after falling 0.4% previously. Median CPI is expected at 2.0% Y/Y, up from 1.9%, while trimmed CPI is forecast to remain at 1.8%.Also at 8:30 AM ET, the U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at 10.6, down from 15.6 previously.At 10:00 AM ET, the NAHB Housing Market Index is expected to edge lower to 33 from 34.With the U.S. economic calendar relatively light, Friday's weaker retail sales report, the repricing of Fed expectations and the resulting moves in the dollar and yields should remain key drivers as North American traders enter for the day. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.