Its just before:5am Tokyo4am ingapore/Hong Kong6am Australia/8am New ZealandEarly indications:EUR/USD 1.1569USD/JPY 159.31GBP/USD 1.3538USD/CHF 0.8117USD/CAD 1.3876AUD/USD 0.7090NZD/USD 0.5892I'll be back with weekend news soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin stabilizes near $63,000, but reclaiming $64,000 is the real testBitcoin is stabilizing near $63,100 after buyers defended the lower part of its recent range. That is constructive, but it is not yet a confirmed recovery. BTC must first overcome resistance near $63,175-$63,270, while reclaiming and holding $64,000-$64,095 remains the more important test.Key takeaways for Bitcoin traders and investorsCurrent position: BTC is holding above the previous month’s lower value boundary near $62,380.Immediate resistance: Buyers need to clear $63,130-$63,175, followed by $63,247-$63,270.Main recovery test: A sustained reclaim of $64,000-$64,095 would carry much more weight than a temporary bounce near $63,000.Major support: The broader $62,380-$62,535 region remains the most important defended zone.Bullish confirmation: Repeated closes, consolidation or a successful retest above $64,095 would show that Bitcoin is beginning to establish higher accepted value.Data note: The latest daily, four-hour and one-hour candles were incomplete when this analysis was prepared. Exchange-specific Bitcoin prices may also differ slightly.I'm also closely monitoring the digital asset space after Bitcoin lost the critical $64,000 support level, putting immediate pressure on lower order-flow shelves as bulls fight to defend structural trendlines. Regulatory headwinds also resurfaced as the SEC abruptly canceled its scheduled crypto rules meeting, injecting fresh institutional hesitation into active trading books. Meanwhile, broader risk sentiment showed divergence across asset classes as US stocks finished the week mixed while the Russell 2000 notched a new record high, underscoring rotational breadth away from mega-cap tech into small-cap momentum. Macro headwinds and geopolitical posturing remain front and center following headline chatter that Trump suggested declaring the Strait of Hormuz US territory, all while monetary policy uncertainty lingers after Fed's Barkin highlighted the difficulty in gauging restrictive policy limits amidst baseline model variances.Why Bitcoin’s stabilization is constructive but incompleteBitcoin recently fell to approximately $62,535, where the decline attracted meaningful buying. Price subsequently recovered toward $63,100, strengthening the case that buyers are willing to defend the lower part of the previous month’s trading range.What stands out to me, however, is how little upward progress followed that buying.Several periods showed positive buying pressure, but BTC remained concentrated around $63,050 and repeatedly struggled to extend beyond $63,150-$63,175. In simple terms, buyers have shown that they can slow the decline, but they have not yet shown that they can move Bitcoin into a clearly higher trading range.This is the difference between stabilization and recovery:Stabilization means sellers are no longer pushing price lower with the same ease.Recovery means buyers are lifting price, holding above resistance and shifting the market’s most active trading area higher.Bitcoin has shown the first condition. The second still needs confirmation.Why $62,380 and $64,095 matterThe previous month’s value area provides a useful map of where most Bitcoin trading took place:Value Area Low near $62,380: The lower boundary of the previous month’s heavily traded range.Point of Control near $64,095: The price that attracted the most trading activity during the month.Value Area High near $65,050: The upper boundary of the previous month’s accepted range.BTC is currently about $720 above the monthly Value Area Low, but almost $1,000 below the monthly Point of Control.Holding above $62,380 tells us that demand inside the previous month’s range has not completely failed. Remaining below $64,095 tells us that buyers have not regained control of the broader value structure.This is also why $64,095 may be more important than $64,000 itself. The round number attracts attention, but $64,095 represents the previous month’s busiest price area. A brief move above $64,000 could still become another failed breakout. Holding above $64,095 would provide stronger evidence that the market is accepting higher prices again.As discussed in our previous analysis, Bitcoin’s loss of the key $64,000 level created technical repair work for buyers. That repair is not complete simply because BTC has bounced from $62,535.Bitcoin support and resistance levels to watchWhat would strengthen the bullish Bitcoin scenario?Swing traders should have 3 key price levels: The Value Area Low (VAL), Point of Control (POC) and Value Area High (VAH) of the previous month. Together, these levels map the previous month’s main area of accepted trading: the VAL marks its lower boundary, the VAH its upper boundary, and the POC the price where the most volume traded. Traders watch them because holding inside the area suggests continued acceptance, while a sustained break outside it may signal that the market is searching for a new value zone.The first constructive step would be sustained trade above $63,175. Buyers would then need to clear and hold above $63,247-$63,270.That would improve the probability of a move toward $63,350 and, eventually, the much larger $64,000-$64,095 test.A more convincing recovery would include:Bitcoin reclaiming $64,000.Price moving above the monthly point of control near $64,095.A pullback successfully defending the reclaimed area.Trading activity beginning to concentrate above $64,095 rather than immediately slipping back below it.If that sequence develops, approximately $65,050 becomes the next major value-area objective.What this means: Acceptance is more than touching a level. It means price spends time above it, survives pullbacks and begins treating the higher area as support.What would weaken the stabilization attempt?Failure to hold $62,920-$62,800 would weaken the current short-term base and increase the probability of another test of $62,535.The more serious bearish development would be sustained trade below $62,380. That would place BTC outside the previous month’s accepted value area and suggest that the market may need to search for demand at lower prices.Traders should still distinguish between a brief move below $62,380 and genuine acceptance beneath it. Crypto markets can produce fast stop-runs through visible support before reversing. Repeated closes or continued trading below the level would carry more bearish significance than a momentary sweep.What Bitcoin traders may consider watchingDifferent traders may use these levels in different ways, at their own discretion:Short-term breakout confirmation: Watch whether BTC can break above $63,175 and successfully retest it, with $63,247-$63,270 providing the next validation area.Support-zone reaction: If BTC returns to $62,380-$62,535, watch whether buyers defend it again or whether selling begins to hold below the zone.Broader recovery confirmation: Treat $64,000-$64,095 as the decisive recovery test instead of assuming that every bounce from $63,000 marks a durable bottom.Because Bitcoin trades continuously, weekend conditions can sometimes involve thinner liquidity and less reliable breakouts. Confirmation through time, repeated closes or a successful retest may therefore be more useful than reacting to the first price spike.What should Bitcoin traders watch next?Bitcoin has defended the lower part of the previous month’s value area, but the rebound still needs to prove itself. The immediate challenge is to move beyond $63,175 and $63,270.The much larger test remains $64,000-$64,095. A successful reclaim would indicate that Bitcoin is returning toward the center of the previous month’s accepted value rather than merely bouncing from support.Until that happens, Bitcoin may be stabilizing, but it is not yet showing a fully confirmed bullish recovery.This analysis presents conditional market scenarios and opinions (not promises) at investingLive.com, not a guarantee of future performance. Traders should consider volatility, position size and their own risk limits before acting. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Earnings beats are not enough: What experienced investors watch insteadA stock can beat Wall Street’s earnings estimates and still fall sharply. Another company can miss an estimate and rally. This is not necessarily irrational. Stock prices respond to how results compare with the expectations already reflected in the price, not simply whether the headline says “beat” or “miss.”Key takeaways for stock investorsAn earnings beat is not automatically bullish. A small beat may have been widely expected and already priced into the stock.Published consensus is not the market’s full expectation. Investors may also be considering unofficial “whisper numbers,” valuation, positioning, guidance and industry trends.The size of the reaction needs context. Compare the actual stock move with the move options traders were expecting before earnings.The initial gap is only the first verdict. What happens after the regular market opens can be even more informative.Company performance and stock performance are related, but they are not the same thing.Why can a stock fall after beating earnings?Imagine analysts expect a company to report:Earnings per share, or EPS: $2.00Revenue: $10 billionThe company reports:EPS: $2.05Revenue: $10.1 billionThe headline reads:“Company beats earnings estimates.”But the stock falls 8%.A beginner may understandably ask: “Why is the stock falling if the company beat expectations?”The simplest answer is that the company may have beaten the published estimates without beating the market’s real expectations.Perhaps investors were hoping for EPS of $2.15. Maybe the stock had already rallied strongly before the report. Guidance for the next quarter might have disappointed. Margins may have weakened, or an important business segment may have slowed.The market evaluates the entire package, not merely the first two numbers in the headline.This leads to one of the most important earnings lessons for new investors:The earnings report tells you what the company said. The stock reaction tells you what investors thought about it.Real-world example: Netflix’s huge earnings beat did not protect the stockNetflix offers a useful example of why investors should examine the quality of an earnings beat, not just its size.In the first quarter of 2026, Netflix reported diluted earnings of $1.23 per share, compared with its previous forecast of $0.76. That looked like a massive earnings beat of nearly 62%. Revenue reached $12.25 billion, slightly above the Wall Street consensus of approximately $12.18 billion. Yet Netflix shares fell roughly 9%-10% after the report. Netflix’s quarterly earnings materials provide the official reporting context.The headline versus the economic realityThe headline: Netflix delivered much higher EPS than expected, while revenue also exceeded expectations.The important catch: Reported profit included a $2.8 billion termination fee connected to the abandoned Warner Bros. transaction. Netflix recorded this payment under interest and other income.Why it matters: The fee was real money, but it was not recurring income generated by subscriptions, advertising or another part of Netflix’s normal operations. It inflated that quarter’s net income and EPS, but it could not be repeated in the following quarter.This does not mean Netflix’s underlying business performed badly. Revenue grew strongly, operating income increased and its operating margin improved. The more precise lesson is that the headline EPS figure made the quarter look more exceptional than the company’s recurring operating performance alone would suggest.Why did Netflix stock fall?Several factors appear to have mattered more than the spectacular-looking EPS beat:The earnings quality was mixed: Investors generally place a higher value on repeatable profits from normal business operations than on a one-time payment.Forward guidance disappointed: Netflix forecast second-quarter EPS and revenue below Wall Street’s expectations. The market therefore looked past the backward-looking beat and focused on weaker-than-hoped future results.Expectations were already high: The stock had rallied strongly before earnings, leaving less room for an ordinary positive surprise.Leadership uncertainty added pressure: Netflix also announced that co-founder Reed Hastings would leave the board, creating another issue for investors to consider. Barron’s reported that the otherwise solid results were overshadowed by disappointing guidance and Hastings’ departure.As the chart illustrates, Netflix fell approximately 10% immediately after the report and eventually declined around 40% from its post-earnings peak to a later low.However, investors should not attribute that entire longer-term decline to one earnings report. Additional guidance disappointments, changing growth expectations, valuation concerns and later company developments also influenced the stock over the following months.The lesson for beginner investorsNever make an investment decision solely because an earnings platform displays a large green “surprise” percentage.Instead, ask:Where did the reported profit come from?Was it generated by the core business or by a one-time event?What did management forecast for the next quarter?Did the stock hold its initial earnings reaction?The Netflix example shows why a massive earnings beat can be less bullish than it first appears. The size of the beat matters, but the quality, sustainability and forward outlook behind it matter much more.Learn stock earnings: What does “priced in” mean for a stock?A stock price reflects what investors believe may happen in the future. It does not wait for the company to publish official confirmation.Suppose investors become increasingly optimistic in the weeks before earnings. The stock rises from $80 to $100 because traders expect excellent results.The company then reports excellent results, but the shares fall to $92.The company may still be performing well. The problem is that “excellent” was already expected. The stock had risen in advance as investors paid for that expected success.For the stock to continue climbing, the company may have needed to deliver something even better than excellent.The reverse can happen when expectations are low. A struggling company might report mediocre results, but the stock rallies because investors feared a much worse outcome.A helpful way to think about earnings is:Stock prices respond to reality compared with expectations, not simply good compared with bad.Why a small earnings beat may not be a major surpriseMany beginners interpret an earnings beat as proof that the company unexpectedly performed better than almost everyone thought. In practice, the situation is more complicated.Consensus estimates change throughout the quarter. Analysts revise their forecasts as new information becomes available. Management guidance helps shape the expected range. Industry data, competitor results and economic conditions can also influence investor expectations before the report arrives.As a result, beating the final published consensus by a small amount is relatively common. It may still be positive, but it is not necessarily a major surprise.For example, beating EPS by two cents tells us very little if investors were privately hoping for a much larger beat.This does not mean every earnings beat is meaningless. A company can deliver a genuinely powerful surprise, especially when revenue, margins, guidance and important operating measures all exceed expectations. The lesson is simply that the word “beat” does not provide enough information on its own.In stock earnings, headline expectations and market expectations are differentPublished analyst consensus is visible. The market’s complete expectation is not.Before earnings, investors may also consider:Unofficial whisper numbersRecent management commentaryChanges in analyst forecastsThe stock’s move before the reportExpectations for future quartersIndustry and competitor trendsProfit marginsOptions pricingInvestor positioning and sentimentWhether the stock’s valuation already assumes rapid growthA high-valuation stock may need near-perfect results to keep rising. A low-valuation stock surrounded by pessimism may only need to show that conditions are not getting worse.That is why:A beat against consensus does not necessarily mean a beat against the market’s real expectations.What should investors examine beyond EPS and revenue?EPS and revenue are useful starting points, but they do not explain the entire business.Experienced market participants often pay attention to:Guidance: What does management expect for the next quarter or year?Margins: Is the company keeping more or less profit from each dollar of sales?Forward growth: Is growth accelerating, remaining stable or slowing?Important business segments: Which products, regions or customer groups are driving the result?Cash flow: Is the business producing real cash?Management commentary: Did executives introduce a new risk or reduce an old uncertainty?Industry conditions: Is the company gaining or losing ground relative to competitors?The stock reaction: Did investors reward or reject the complete report?The most important figures vary by company. Subscribers may matter more for a streaming business. Cloud growth may matter more for a large technology company. Same-store sales can be critical for a retailer.Investors should identify the measures that explain how the business actually makes money.How the stock reaction adds informationConsider two simplified earnings reactions:The reaction does not tell us the exact reason automatically. Investors still need to read the report and listen to management.However, the reaction helps reveal whether the new information was better or worse than what the market had already prepared for.A sharp decline after respectable numbers can be a warning that expectations were too high. A strong rally after imperfect numbers can signal that pessimism had become excessive.How does the expected move improve the analysis?Before earnings, options prices can provide an approximate indication of how large a move traders are preparing for. This is commonly called the expected move.The expected move does not predict whether a stock will rise or fall. It gives investors a rough idea of the amount of volatility already anticipated.Consider two companies:Company AExpected move: approximately 8%Actual reaction: +3%The response is positive, but relatively contained. The company did not produce a move as large as the options market had prepared for.Company BExpected move: approximately 4%Actual reaction: +10%This is a much more forceful upside repricing. The move greatly exceeded what traders had been expecting.The same principle applies to negative reactions:A 5% decline when a 10% move was expected may be relatively contained.A 10% decline when only a 4% move was expected may represent a much stronger negative surprise.This gives beginners a better question to ask:Was the earnings move unusually large compared with what the market was already prepared for?The expected move is useful context, not a perfect forecast. Options pricing can be influenced by demand, liquidity and broader market risk. Investors should use it as a comparison tool rather than an exact boundary the stock must respect.Why the first earnings reaction may not be the final verdictMany companies report after the regular market closes. Their shares can move dramatically in after-hours trading, when liquidity is usually thinner and fewer participants are active.The stock might initially jump 12%, open the next day only 6% higher and finish nearly unchanged.Alternatively, it might fall 10% after the report, recover rapidly after the opening bell and finish well above its overnight low.These changes are valuable information.The initial earnings gap shows the market’s first reaction. What happens afterward shows whether investors accept the new price.In this context, acceptance means that the stock holds much of the move instead of immediately returning to its previous range.What does strong earnings follow-through look like?After a positive earnings reaction, investors can watch whether:The stock holds most of its initial gainEarly pullbacks attract buyersThe shares remain strong after the opening volatility settlesThe stock outperforms its sector and the broader marketThe price closes near the upper part of its daily rangeStrength continues into the following sessionAfter a negative reaction, investors can ask whether:Selling continues after the opening bellAttempts to recover repeatedly failThe stock remains weaker than its competitorsThe shares close near the lower part of the daily rangeSellers remain active during the following sessionA positive gap that quickly disappears is different from a positive gap that buyers defend throughout the day. Likewise, a large decline that recovers can tell a different story from one that continues to deepen.Why investors should not blindly follow the price reactionPrice provides information, but it is not infallible.A stock’s earnings reaction can be affected by:A major move in the overall marketAn economic report released at the same timeNews from a competitorInterest-rate changesGeopolitical developmentsShort coveringForced sellingThin after-hours liquidityFor example, a technology company might report strong results but fall because the entire Nasdaq is selling off after an inflation surprise. Another stock might rally because heavily positioned short sellers are rushing to exit, even though the business outlook remains uncertain.The reaction should therefore be investigated, not worshipped.The best analysis combines the company’s results with the price response and the broader market context.A simple three-question earnings checklistBeginners do not need a complex model to improve how they read earnings. Start with three questions.1. What did the company report?Look at:EPSRevenueGuidanceMarginsImportant products or business segmentsManagement’s explanation of what changedDo not stop after the first headline.2. How did the stock react relative to expectations?Ask:Did the stock rise or fall?How large was the move?Was it larger or smaller than the expected move?Had the stock already rallied or fallen significantly before earnings?Were investors positioned for a very strong or very weak report?Did the stock perform better or worse than its sector?3. Did the reaction hold?Watch:The opening tradeThe first few hoursThe closing priceThe following session when appropriateA strong report combined with an unusually strong and sustained reaction generally carries more information than a small headline beat followed by immediate selling.“They beat earnings. Why is the stock falling?”When this happens, one or more of the following explanations may apply:The earnings beat was too smallGuidance disappointedProfit margins weakenedA major business segment missed expectationsInvestors expected a larger beatThe stock had rallied too far before earningsThe valuation required near-perfect resultsManagement introduced a new concernThe positive news was already priced inThe broader market or sector was fallingThe correct explanation may require reading the full release, examining the conference call and studying the price action.But the decline itself is still telling investors something important: the complete package did not satisfy the expectations embedded in the stock price.Three earnings lessons every new investor should remember1. A beat is not automatically bullishStocks respond to expectations. EPS and revenue beating consensus do not guarantee that the full report was better than investors anticipated.2. Judge the reaction in contextCompare the stock’s actual move with the expected move, its pre-earnings rally or decline, its valuation and the performance of its sector.3. Watch what happens after the gapA reaction that holds can strengthen the market’s verdict. A move that quickly reverses may tell a very different story.Frequently asked questions about earnings reactionsShould I buy a stock because it beat earnings?An earnings beat alone is not a complete investment case. Investors should examine guidance, margins, business trends, valuation and the sustainability of the stock’s reaction before drawing a conclusion.Is a falling stock proof that the earnings report was bad?Not necessarily. The company may have reported good absolute results but failed to exceed very high expectations. The decline may also reflect broader market conditions. Investors need to separate company-specific information from outside influences.Is an after-hours move reliable?It is useful, but it can change. After-hours trading often has lower liquidity. The regular session brings more investors, more volume and sometimes a different verdict.What if a stock rises after missing estimates?The market may have feared a worse result. Guidance could have improved, margins may have surprised positively or management may have reduced a major uncertainty. A miss can still be better than what was already priced in.The earnings habit that can make beginners better investorsThe next time a headline says a company “beat expectations,” resist the temptation to conclude that the stock must rise.Read the headline numbers, but then keep going.Ask whether the results genuinely exceeded the expectations already reflected in the share price. Compare the actual reaction with the expected move. Finally, watch whether buyers or sellers continue to defend that reaction once the regular market opens.Learning to ask those questions is one of the simplest ways a beginner can start examining earnings like a more experienced market participant. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Why Retail Traders Are Rethinking Traditional Prop FirmsUS stocks end the week mixed; Russell 2000 closes at a recordTrump: Pretty soon will be declaring Strait of Hormuz territory of the USThe weekly Baker Hughes rig count rises by 5 in the current weekFed's Goolsbee: US GDP and labor markets are basically stableEuropean shares close mostly lower as yields jump; DAX bucks the trendUS Business inventories for June 0.0% vs 0.1% estimateUS August prelim UMich consumer sentiment 51.0 vs 54.5 expectedCanada Manufacturing Sales for June +0.1% vs -0.1% estimateUS July retail sales -0.6% vs +0.1% expectedKickstart the NA session for Augste 14: USD falls across the board as BOJ rate hike talk lifts the yeninvestingLive European session wrap: Dollar falls, gold rebounds amid mixed marketsThree reasons why BOJ rate hikes will not save the yenAs Yogi Berra once said, "It ain't over until it is over".  Welll it is over.  The week is over. For the day, the U.S. stocks finished mostly lower on Friday, but the declines were modest as the major indices wrapped up a mixed week. The S&P 500 reached a new record high during the week before backing off into the Friday close, while small caps were the standout performer. The Russell 2000 rose 0.51% on the day and closed at a new record high.Dow industrial average: 53,737.38, -108.01 points or -0.20%S&P 500: 7,785.75, -13.23 points or -0.17%Nasdaq composite: 26,729.16, -73.86 points or -0.28%Russell 2000: 3,068.42, +15.59 points or +0.51%Nasdaq 100: 30,046.14, -38.36 points or -0.13%For the week, the Dow was the only major index to finish lower, while the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 led the gains:Dow: -0.56%S&P 500: +0.36%Nasdaq: +0.14%Russell 2000: +1.11%Nasdaq 100: +1.09%The modest weakness in stocks came despite a softer U.S. dollar. The greenback moved lower against all of the major currencies, with the largest declines coming against the NZD and CAD. The weaker dollar followed a disappointing U.S. retail sales report that added another question mark over the strength of the U.S. consumer.The percentage changes versus the dollar showed:EUR: +0.36%JPY: +0.11%GBP: +0.33%CHF: +0.09%CAD: +0.42%AUD: +0.38%NZD: +0.65%The NZD was the strongest of the major currencies, while the JPY and CHF posted the smallest gains versus the dollar.The economic catalyst for much of the dollar weakness came from July retail sales. Headline sales fell 0.6%, well below expectations for a 0.1% increase and following a 0.2% gain in June. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.3%, while the important retail control group declined 0.4%. It was the first monthly decline in headline retail sales in nine months.There were some pockets of strength underneath the headline. Building-material sales rose 0.3%, while food services and drinking places increased 0.5%. However, motor vehicles and parts fell 1.8%, electronics sales declined 0.5%, and non-store retailers dropped 2.2%.One month does not make a trend, but the report puts a dent in the idea that the U.S. consumer will continue to spend at a solid pace as long as the labor market remains relatively stable.Adding to the softer consumer picture was the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for August. Sentiment fell to 51.0 from 55.2 in July and was well below the 54.5 expected. Current conditions fell to 51.8 versus 55.0 expected, while expectations dropped to 50.6 versus 55.2 expected. Inflation expectations were less encouraging. One-year expectations edged higher to 4.3% from 4.2%, while five-year expectations remained elevated at 3.3%. That leaves the Fed looking at a somewhat uncomfortable combination of weaker consumer readings but inflation expectations that remain above desired levels.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee played down the significance of one weak retail sales report, saying U.S. GDP and the labor market remain basically stable. He said continued weakness in spending could become concerning, but emphasized the need for more data. Goolsbee also said he was encouraged by the recent CPI reports.Goolsbee raised another interesting issue for markets, pointing to weakness in recent productivity readings. If that weakness persists, it could complicate the inflation outlook and potentially challenge some of the optimism surrounding the productivity benefits expected from AI investment.While the dollar weakened on the softer economic data, U.S. yields finished higher from the levels shown late in the session. Using the 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year maturities as proxies for the curve:2-year: 4.171%, +3.1 basis points5-year: 4.362%, +4.9 basis points10-year: 4.692%, +5.1 basis points30-year: 5.260%, +4.9 basis pointsThe larger increases farther out the curve resulted in a modest steepening from the 2-year through the longer maturities. The pressure on longer-term yields remains an important issue for equities, particularly with valuations elevated and markets continuing to weigh inflation, energy prices and the enormous capital spending associated with the AI buildout.The rise in yields was not confined to the U.S. European benchmark yields also jumped sharply Friday, and that helped put some pressure on equities across the region.European shares closed mostly lower, although Germany's DAX bucked the trend:German DAX: +0.51% at 26,432.87France CAC 40: -0.16% at 8,636.81UK FTSE 100: -0.21% at 10,750.12Spain Ibex: -0.06% at 20,156.61Italy FTSE MIB: -0.20% at 53,583.60The moves in European 10-year yields were considerably larger:Germany: 3.205%, +7.1 basis pointsFrance: 4.048%, +9.9 basis pointsUK: 5.042%, +9.0 basis pointsSpain: 3.652%, +8.4 basis pointsItaly: 3.990%, +9.3 basis pointsIn other markets, crude oil was a notable winner, while gold and silver also moved higher. Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction:Crude oil: $82.38, +$1.13 or +1.39%Gold: $4,376.16, +$26.14 or +0.60%Silver: $64.71, +$0.24 or +0.37%Bitcoin: $62,855, -$563 or -0.89%So the week ends with a number of competing signals for traders to digest. The S&P 500 reached another record during the week but could not hold onto the momentum Friday. The Russell 2000, meanwhile, ended at a record, suggesting the equity rally continues to broaden beyond the mega-cap names.At the same time, retail sales and consumer sentiment raised questions about the strength of the U.S. consumer, the dollar weakened, oil moved higher, and global bond yields remain a potential headwind.That combination sets up another interesting week ahead as traders continue to balance growth, inflation and Fed expectations against equity markets that remain near record levels.Thank you for your support. Hope you have a good and safe weekend.  This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

US stocks finished mostly lower on Friday, taking some of the shine off a week that saw both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 trade at record levels. The exception today was the small-cap Russell 2000, which bucked the broader weakness and closed at a new record high.The S&P 500 reached a fresh all-time high during the week and closed at a record on Thursday, but buyers could not keep the momentum going into the weekend. Friday's softer retail sales and consumer sentiment data contributed to a more cautious tone, while higher oil prices and geopolitical concerns also weighed on risk appetite.At the closing bell, the major indices finished:Dow industrial average: 53,737.38, -108.01 points or -0.20%S&P 500: 7,785.75, -13.23 points or -0.17%Nasdaq Composite: 26,729.16, -73.86 points or -0.28%Russell 2000: 3,068.42, +0.51%, closing at a new record highNasdaq 100: 30,046.14, -38.36 points or -0.13%Despite Friday's modest pullback, most of the major indices still managed to finish higher for the week:Dow: -0.56%S&P 500: +0.36%Nasdaq Composite: +0.14%Russell 2000: +1.11%Nasdaq 100: +1.09%The weekly numbers show an interesting shift beneath the surface. The S&P and Nasdaq posted relatively modest gains, while the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 both advanced more than 1%. For small caps in particular, the new record close is a notable sign of broader participation beyond the largest companies.It was also a big week for a number of individual stocks, particularly names tied to AI infrastructure, data centers, memory and storage. That theme helped provide some of the week's biggest winners.Some of the week's biggest gainers included:Nebius: +47.73%SanDisk: +35.40%Super Micro Computer: +27.98%Western Digital: +17.15%Micron: +10.85%Datadog: +9.20%Dell Technologies: +8.16%Vertiv: +7.88%GE Vernova: +7.36%Chevron: +7.21%Moderna: +7.00%Lam Research: +6.77%Defiance Drone and Modern Warfare ETF: +6.41%SLB: +6.41%AMD: +6.38%Intuit: +6.28%General Mills: +6.26%Nebius led the way after its earnings report highlighted another surge in AI-cloud demand, while SanDisk's Investor Day and aggressive longer-term financial targets helped send that stock sharply higher. Super Micro was another major beneficiary of enthusiasm surrounding AI infrastructure.The week was certainly not positive for everyone. While AI infrastructure, memory and small caps produced some impressive gains, there were also some sizable individual-stock declines.Some of the week's biggest losers included:Tapestry: -20.56%On Holding: -14.17%First Solar: -9.79%AppLovin: -9.04%Tencent ADR: -8.77%Broadcom: -8.14%Cisco: -8.03%Alaska Air: -8.01%Macy's: -7.83%Lululemon Athletica: -7.02%American Airlines: -6.96%Strategy: -6.95%Tapestry was the biggest casualty, falling more than 20% for the week. The Coach parent came under heavy pressure following its earnings report and a muted outlook for annual revenue growth.Cisco also had a rough week despite reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings and revenue. Investors focused instead on margin pressure, sending the shares sharply lower and illustrating once again that simply beating expectations isn't always enough when expectations are already elevated.The losers list also shows that weakness wasn't isolated to one area of the market. Retail and consumer names including Tapestry, On Holding, Macy's and Lululemon were among the laggards, while technology names such as Broadcom, Cisco and AppLovin also suffered sizable declines.That dispersion is another important takeaway from the week. The major averages remained near record territory, but underneath the surface there were some very large moves in both directions. Stock selection—and reactions to earnings and guidance—continued to matter.So although Friday ended with red on most of the major-index screens, the weekly picture was considerably better. The S&P 500 reached another record, the Russell 2000 finished the week at a record, and some of the strongest individual-stock gains were once again concentrated around AI infrastructure, semiconductors, memory and data-center spending.The Dow was the outlier among the major averages for the week, declining 0.56%, while the broader market continues to show enough underlying strength to keep the major indices near—or at—record territory heading into next week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump is speaking and says:Pretty soon he'll be declaring the Strait of Hormuz territory of the US.Warned that Iranian aggression would be met with response hundred times harder and emphasized that the US only permits vessels to enter the Strait at its discretion. Calls the blockade is unstoppableUS to pay a tiny little price for gasoline.Says he will hit Iran hard economically. Does not care if hitting the Iran economy before midterms This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD moved sharply higher through the European and early North American sessions, but the rally ran into a familiar technical roadblock.For the second Friday in a row, the pair broke above its 100-day moving average, only to struggle to sustain momentum. This time, buyers pushed the price into the next key target area near 1.1586, where the top of a swing area converges with the 50% retracement. The high reached 1.1585, virtually testing that level to the pip, before buyers turned to sellers.The subsequent reversal has taken the EURUSD back below the 100-day moving average, once again putting the upside move in jeopardy.That price action has an eerily similar feel to last Friday. The EURUSD also moved above the 100-day moving average then, but the breakout failed. That failure helped trigger the decline that ultimately took the pair to 1.1511 yesterday. Importantly, that low remained above the key swing support surrounding the 1.1500 level.As trading winds down for the week, the 100-day moving average remains the key barometer. A close near that level effectively passes the decision to next week, with traders likely to use it as the dividing line between a more bullish and bearish technical bias.On the topside, a move back above the 100-day MA would put 1.1586 back in focus. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward the 200-day moving average at 1.1627.Conversely, staying below the 100-day MA would keep the buyers on the defensive. The next downside targets would be the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.1539, followed by 1.1524. A break below those levels would shift the focus back toward the key 1.1498–1.1506 swing area.For now, the 100-day moving average is the battleground. Above it, buyers get another opportunity. Below it, the risk increases that Friday's breakout becomes another failed attempt. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count showed:Oil up 1 to 455Natural gas up 4 to 128Total rigs +5 to 593.  Versus a year ago, the Oil is up from 412, Natural gas is up from 122 and total is up from 539. Crude oil is trading at $82.19, up $0.94 of the day. THe high reached $82.99. The low was at $80.71.  This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsby is on the wires sayingUS GDP and labor market are basically stableThe weak retail sales represents one month of dataContinued spending weakness could be worryingsupported the July rate decisionNotes is that the past two productivity data releases were very poor.  If it persists, it could change the AI narrative Encouraged by CPI reports and need more dataGoolsbee tends to go with the flow. He can be more hawkish or more dovish.   His comments on productivity are a concern for for inflation and have implications for US stocks.  At the same time, wonder if the productivity measures are being influenced by the upfront costs with the  majority of the gains to be determined. But that is a $64,000 question for everyone. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

As London/European traders head for the exits, the major European stock indices are closing mostly lower. Germany's DAX was the notable exception, gaining 0.51%, while France, the UK, Spain and Italy all finished modestly in the red.The moves come as European benchmark yields rose sharply across the board, adding some pressure to equities.European closing levels:German DAX: +0.51% at 26,432.87France CAC 40: -0.16% at 8,636.81UK FTSE 100: -0.21% at 10,750.12Spain Ibex: -0.06% at 20,156.61Italy FTSE MIB: -0.20% at 53,583.60Europeans yields move higherIn the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields moved sharply higher:Germany: 3.205%, +7.1 basis pointsFrance: 4.048%, +9.9 basis pointsUK: 5.042%, +9.0 basis pointsSpain: 3.652%, +8.4 basis pointsItaly: 3.990%, +9.3 basis pointsUS stocks are lowerAs European traders leave for the day, the major U.S. indices are mostly lower after earlier gains faded. The S&P and Nasdaq are pulling back after the S&P reached another record level this week.Dow Industrial Average: -0.27% at 53,700.36S&P 500: -0.20% at 7,783.06Nasdaq Composite: -0.44% at 26,684.76Russell 2000: +0.24% at 3,060.04Nasdaq 100: -0.40% at 29,963.16US yields are higher after trading lower earlier.U.S. Treasury yields are also moving higher, with the largest increases at the long end of the curve. The move is steepening the yield curve despite the softer U.S. dollar. The rise in longer-term yields has been a notable feature of today's trading.2-year: 4.150%, +1.0 basis point5-year: 4.346%, +3.3 basis points10-year: 4.686%, +4.5 basis points30-year: 5.269%, +5.8 basis pointsThe USD is moving lower despite the yields moving higher. The U.S. dollar is lower against all of the major currencies, with the biggest decline coming against the New Zealand dollar. The NZD is up 0.75% versus the greenback, while the AUD and GBP are both up about 0.51%. The euro is up 0.46%.The dollar is also lower against the yen, with USDJPY down 0.19%. USDCAD is down 0.42%, while USDCHF is lower by 0.29%. The broad dollar weakness comes despite the move higher in Treasury yields.Crude oil is higher in a fairly narrow range. Crude oil is trading modestly higher, up $0.43 at $81.68. The price has seen a wide intraday range, reaching a high of $82.99 and a low of $80.71 before settling near the middle of that range as European traders exit.US economic data was softer than expectations U.S. economic data came in softer than expected, adding to concerns about the strength of the consumer and helping pressure the U.S. dollar.July retail sales fell 0.6%, well below the +0.1% expected. Ex-autos sales declined 0.3% versus +0.2% expected, while the important control group fell 0.4% versus a +0.3% forecast. Motor vehicles and non-store retailers were among the biggest drags. University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 51.0 in the preliminary August reading, below the 54.5 expected and down from 55.2 in July. Both current conditions and expectations weakened. Inflation expectations remained elevated, with the 1-year measure rising to 4.3% from 4.2%, while the 5-year measure held at 3.3%. The combination of weak retail sales and softer consumer sentiment raises some questions about consumer momentum heading deeper into the third quarter and is the catalyst for the stocks despite the chance of a fed tightening down to 30% for September. . This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major US stock indices are trading lower on the day, taking some of the shine off what had been a technically positive week.S&P index: down -0.23% on the day, but still holding onto a 0.30% gain for the week. NASDAQ index: down -0.52% today and now -0.09% for the week. For the S&P, the index stretched to a new record high this week, but buyers have been unable to generate additional upside momentum in trading today.The NASDAQ also reached an important technical milestone this week, extending above a key swing area that tops out at 26,788.62. However, that breakout has also failed to attract sustained follow-through buying, with the index moving back to the downside today.Those failures to extend higher put more focus on the technical levels heading into the remainder of today's session and into next week.In the video above, I take a closer look at the technical picture for both the S&P and NASDAQ. Where is the key resistance? What are the next downside targets? And perhaps most importantly, where are the risk-defining levels that will tell traders whether buyers can regain control or whether sellers are starting to make a stronger play? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The GBPUSD is pushing sharply higher, up close to 0.50% on the day, with the rally taking the pair to its highest level since May 12.From a technical perspective, buyers have checked several important boxes on the way higher. The price has moved above its 100-hour moving average, the 50% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.3503, and the July high at 1.35573. The latest push has taken the price to 1.3561.Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair has also broken above a key swing area between 1.3543 and 1.3557. That breakout area now becomes important support. For buyers looking for the move to continue, staying above 1.3543 is the close risk level. A move back below would raise concerns about a failed breakout and could lead to some disappointment selling.As long as the price remains above that level, however, the buyers remain firmly in control.On the topside, the next key target is the 61.8% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.3589. A break above that level would open the door toward the April highs near 1.3657.For perspective, there is still considerable room before the pair challenges its 2026 high at 1.38671, which was reached in January.Nevertheless, today's move above the 50% midpoint at 1.3503 and the 1.3543–1.3557 swing area represents a meaningful bullish technical development. As long as those breakout levels hold, the door remains open for additional upside momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month 0.3% revised higher to 0.4%Business inventories for June 0.0% vs 0.1% estimateRetail inventories ex autos -0.4% vs -0.2% last month.Sales show a sharp fall in June but still up strong for the year. June business sales: $2.111 trillion Month-over-month:-1.1% vs. May 2026 Year-over-year:+10.0% vs. June 2025 Sales figures are seasonally and trading-day adjusted, but not adjusted for price changes.The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of June was 1.30 which is higher from the lowest level going back to 2021.   The June 2025 ratio was 1.39.With the inventory-to-sales ratio is at its lowest since 2021, it can create the conditions for an inventory-rebuilding cycle, particularly if sales remain firm.Inventories are lean relative to sales. Businesses are carrying less inventory for each dollar of sales, meaning there is less of an inventory cushion. Potential production boost: If demand holds up, companies may need to increase orders and production to rebuild inventories. Historically, inventory drawdowns associated with stronger demand can lead to increased output as firms restock. Positive for GDP: Inventory investment is part of GDP. A transition from little or no inventory accumulation to meaningful restocking can therefore add to GDP growth, even before inventories become particularly large. The Fed has documented past periods when a turn from inventory liquidation toward restocking provided a meaningful contribution to growth. Positive for manufacturing and transportation: A broad rebuild could mean more factory production, supplier orders, freight and warehousing activity. But demand is critical. A low ratio by itself doesn't guarantee a rebuild. If sales weaken, companies may be perfectly comfortable with existing inventories and won't necessarily increase orders. There is also a structural issue: Businesses have become more efficient at running lean inventories through just-in-time systems, so today's "normal" inventory-to-sales ratio may be lower than historical norms. For the June numbers, there's an interesting setup: inventories were essentially flat m/m while sales were +10.0% y/y, and the inventory/sales ratio is 1.30 versus 1.39 a year ago. If sales remain resilient, that increasingly argues for future inventory rebuilding—which could provide an additional tailwind to production and GDP.The key question over the next few months is whether sales stay strong enough to force businesses to restock.The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. Data for the wholesale and manufacturing sectors are unrevised from the most recent Monthly Wholesale Trade Report and the Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and orders. Data from the Retail sector is revised and presented in more detail from the most recent Advance Economic Indicators Report This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 55.2Conditions 51.8 vs 55.0 expected (prior 54.9)Expectations 50.6 vs 55.2 expected (prior 54.0)1-year inflation 4.3% vs 4.2% prior5-year inflation 3.3% vs 3.3% priorThe market doesn't put any weight on this survey anymore. It's highly infected by politics and hasn't forecast anything in regards to consumer spending in ages. The inflation numbers did once trick the Fed into an aggressive rate hike in the post-covid era, which they had to leak via Timiraos. The irony is that the jump in inflation expectations in that number was revised away two weeks later. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

In yesterday’s post and video, I highlighted the importance of the swing area between 0.8138 and 0.81513, writing:“Ultimately, if buyers are going to take firmer control, they need to get and stay above 0.8151. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and have traders looking toward the July swing highs near 0.8206.”That break never materialized.The USDCHF reached a late-session high yesterday of 0.8146, just below the upper end of that key swing area. In the new trading day, buyers made another attempt, but the price stalled at 0.8145 before rotating back to the downside.The selling pressure has intensified over the last few hours, helped by broader U.S. dollar weakness. Technically, the decline has taken the USDCHF below its 100-hour moving average at 0.81185 and down to test the 200-hour moving average at 0.81049. The low has reached 0.8104, just below that moving average, before bouncing modestly. The pair currently trades around 0.8108.That puts the focus squarely on the 100- and 200-hour moving averages heading into the weekend.On the topside, a move back above the 100-hour moving average at 0.81185 would give buyers some breathing room and increase the potential for another run toward the 0.8138–0.81513 swing area. However, as long as the price remains below the 100-hour MA, sellers maintain the stronger short-term technical hand.On the downside, the 200-hour moving average at 0.81049 is the immediate battleground. A sustained break below that level would increase the bearish bias and target Wednesday’s low near 0.8092. Below there, attention would shift toward the 0.8060–0.8070 swing area, followed by the 38.2% retracement at 0.8049.A break below those levels would put the lower end of the broader two-month value area near 0.8029 back in play. That level has helped define the bottom of the wider 0.8029–0.81513 trading range.For now, the battle lines are clearly defined. The 200-hour moving average is the key downside barometer, while the 100-hour moving average is the level buyers need to reclaim. How the price behaves between those two technical levels should determine who carries the stronger hand into the weekend. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Coming into today’s trading, USDCAD had been confined to a relatively narrow range for the week. The high was set on Monday at 1.3964, while Wednesday’s low reached 1.3908 — a range of just 56 pips (see red box on the chart below). However, as posted yesterday, the sellers still had the strongest hand (see post here). That changed today as sellers pushed the pair to a new weekly low at 1.3868. The weekly range has now expanded to nearly 100 pips, which is a little more respectable, although still not particularly large by historical standards.More importantly, the move lower represents another leg in the step-by-step decline that has been developing since USDCAD peaked in mid-June.From a technical perspective, the sellers have checked off several important boxes this week. The price held resistance within the 1.3948 to 1.3966 swing area, then moved below and away from the 100-hour moving average at 1.39295 and the 100-day moving average at 1.39185 (see blue lines on the chart above).The pair has also broken below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the May 1 low near 1.3550 to the June 24 high at 1.4247. That midpoint comes in at 1.3899 — call it 1.3900 — and the break below that level represents another important technical victory for sellers in the stair-step move lower from the June high.The low today reached 1.3868, briefly moving below the bottom of a swing area between 1.38683 and 1.3877. However, the decline has so far stalled ahead of two increasingly important downside targets: a channel trendline near 1.3859 and the 200-day moving average at 1.3852.That 200-day moving average is particularly important.The last time USDCAD traded below its 200-day moving average was back around June 1. At that time, the price broke below and based near the moving average around 1.3810 before reversing sharply higher. That rebound ultimately carried the pair to its 2026 high at 1.4247 on June 24 — a significant move in a relatively short period of time.The 200-day moving average has since moved higher to 1.3852, but it remains a key barometer for both buyers and sellers.As a result, I would not be surprised to see some apprehension on the first test of that level. Sellers who entered at higher levels may look to take some profits, while dip buyers may lean against the moving average looking for a corrective bounce. Importantly, the level also gives those buyers a clearly defined area where risk can be limited.Nevertheless, the sellers remain in control. A sustained break below the 200-day moving average at 1.3852 would represent another significant bearish technical development and open the door for further downside momentum.Conversely, simply bouncing from the 200-day moving average would not be enough to turn the technical picture bullish. It would take a move back above the 100-day and 100-hour moving averages in the 1.3920–1.3930 area to start scaring the sellers and give buyers greater confidence that a more meaningful bottom may be in place.For now, the stair-step trend remains lower, with the 200-day moving average at 1.3852 shaping up as the next major test. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month +1.3%Manufacturing Sales +0.1% versus -0.1% estimateDetails:Manufacturing sales: +0.1% m/m to $78.8 billion, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Year over year: Sales were +14.5%. Excluding petroleum & coal: Sales increased a much stronger 2.6% m/m. Constant-dollar sales: +1.2%, suggesting underlying volumes were firmer than the headline nominal increase.Subsector highlightsChemicals: +6.0% to $6.3 billion, a fourth straight gain and highest since October 2022. Transportation equipment: +2.8% to $12.4 billion, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Motor vehicle parts: +6.2% Aerospace products & parts: +6.0%Petroleum & coal:-14.1% to $10.1 billion, largely reflecting lower petroleum and energy prices. Second-quarter strength is a positive  Q2 manufacturing sales surged 9.3% to a record $235.1 billion, the fourth straight quarterly increase. Petroleum & coal: +33.7% q/q Transportation equipment: +14.7% q/q Excluding petroleum & coal: +6.1% q/q Constant-dollar Q2 sales: +4.6%Inventories do add to the growth. Manufacturing inventories rose 0.6% to $126.8 billion in June and were up 2.0% in Q2. Goods in process: +2.0% Raw materials: +0.2% Finished products: -0.3% Transportation equipment inventories: +3.1% Machinery: +2.0% Petroleum and coal: -3.6%Inventory-to-sales ratio edged higher to 1.61 from 1.60 in May. Unfilled orders increased 1.2% to a record $131.8 billion, driven largely by a 2.4% increase in aerospace products and parts. Unfilled orders were +8.4% in Q2. Capacity utilization edged up to 82.3% from 82.2%. Non-metallic mineral products: +4.3 percentage points Primary metals: +1.9 points Machinery: +0.6 point Transportation equipment: -2.9 pointsOverall, the headline +0.1% increase looks modest, but it was better than expectatations and the the details are stronger. Excluding the sharp petroleum decline, sales rose 2.6%, volumes increased 1.2%, Q2 sales hit a record, and unfilled orders also reached a record high. The 2nd quarter data was strong as well.     This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.2%Ex autos -0.3% vs +0.2% expEx gas and autos -0.2% vs +0.4% priorRetail control -0.4% vs +0.3% expRetail sales y/y nominal 5.01% vs +6.72% priorThe thinking is that the US consumer will continue spend so long as the jobs market holds up but this report dents that view. I'd caution that it's only one report. The negative reading on the control group is the first one since September 2025 and follows a string of good numbers.Deeper in the data, a big drag is motor vehicles and parts, down 1.8% m/m and eectronics were also lower by 0.5%. There was some upside in building materials up 0.3% and food services and drinking places up 0.5%, no doubt due to the World Cup. There might have also been a Prime Day hangover with sales at non-store retailers down 2.2% m/m. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US stocks hit records, but oil and weaker earnings signals demand more selectivityUS stocks remain supported by softer inflation and lower expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike. However, two risks are becoming harder to ignore: elevated oil prices and a defensive shift in recent earnings reactions. The market is still constructive, but traders may need to become more selective rather than simply buying every AI stock or market dip.Key takeaways for traders and investors todayUS stocks: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record levels after benign producer-price inflation. Main macro risk: A sustained Brent crude breakout above $90 could revive inflation concerns and pressure growth stocks. Earnings warning: Recent earnings batches have produced weaker breadth and more influential large-cap declines. AI lesson: Applied Materials fell about 5% despite solid results, showing that good earnings are not always good enough when expectations are extremely high. Current market read: This looks like an emerging defensive shift, not yet a confirmed bearish regime.In my latest market breakdown, I'm watching Bitcoin struggle below the key $64,000 value pivot as futures slip beneath their developing value area and spot trades under its rising pitchfork channel, placing the immediate tactical burden of proof entirely on buyers. Meanwhile, risk sentiment in broader equity markets continues to find underlying support, with Eamonn Sheridan from investingLive.com reporting that OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate has surpassed $40 billion amid aggressive enterprise expansion ahead of a prospective public listing. In the macro and currency space, Justin Low at investingLive.com outlined three key structural reasons why BOJ rate hikes will not save the yen due to severe debt-servicing limits and deeply negative real rates, while his commodity coverage also highlighted how gold buyers lost upward momentum after breaking below the 100-hour moving average, shifting the yellow metal's near-term bias to neutral as sellers defend key technical resistance overhead. And if you're interested in trade ideas for the US Dollar, check these out.Why softer inflation is helping US stocksThe S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,798.99, up 0.65%, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.81% to 26,803.03. The Dow gained a more modest 0.13%, finishing at 53,839.99.Technology and semiconductor stocks again provided important leadership. Sandisk rose approximately 13.7%, Micron gained around 4.2%, Meta advanced 2.8%, and Microsoft added nearly 1%.The immediate catalyst was softer US producer-price inflation. July PPI was essentially unchanged from the previous month, compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase.That reduced the probability of another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. Markets are now pricing roughly a 33% to 35% chance of a September increase, down from approximately 55% a week earlier. Michael Stark, financial content lead at Exness, notes that softer employment data and inflation meeting expectations have pushed more hawkish Fed scenarios out of focus for now. His main caution is that mid-August activity remains seasonally subdued, so a decisive market breakout may require genuinely surprising news or renewed geopolitical tension.This matters because lower expectations for future interest rates can make highly valued growth stocks easier for investors to justify. However, the US 10-year Treasury yield remains relatively elevated near 4.66% to 4.70%, so technology stocks are not completely free from interest-rate risk.Are earnings reactions becoming more defensive?The broader index picture is bullish, but the latest earnings reactions are becoming less supportive.The August 13 after-hours batch produced several defensive signals: Only about 37% of directional reactions were positive. The median stock reaction was approximately -1.3%. The simple average reaction was around -1.8%. When company size was considered, the batch weakened to approximately -2.8%. Downside moves beyond options-implied expectations slightly outnumbered upside breaks. This does not mean Q3 earnings season has turned decisively bearish. Earlier batches produced powerful gains in companies such as Nebius, CoreWeave, Lumentum and Super Micro. The wider quarter has also included major positive repricings in Microsoft, Amazon, Palantir, Shopify and Airbnb.The better description is a highly selective earnings environment that is beginning to develop a defensive bias.Investors are still willing to reward genuine upside surprises. They are also becoming less forgiving when results, guidance or management commentary fail to meet elevated expectations.Why Applied Materials matters, but is not an extreme shockApplied Materials fell about 5% after earnings, despite revenue growth of approximately 25%, better-than-expected revenue and guidance above consensus.This reaction matters because Applied Materials is a large semiconductor company. Its decline can affect sector sentiment and major indexes much more than a larger percentage move in a small company.However, there is an important nuance: options traders had been pricing an earnings move of approximately 7.4%.A 5% decline is therefore negative, but smaller than the move the options market considered plausible before the announcement. It is a meaningful large-cap drag, not an unusually severe earnings shock.This distinction helps explain why traders should compare the actual reaction with the expected move.What this means: Options prices provide an estimate of how far a stock might move around earnings. A 5% decline when 10% was expected can be relatively contained. A 10% decline when only 4% was expected represents a much stronger negative surprise.Why the indexes can rise while earnings sentiment weakensEarnings breadth counts how many reporting companies rise or fall, but that count does not reveal the entire market impact.Twenty small companies can rally while one major technology company falls. The batch may have more winners, yet the large company can still exert greater pressure on the S&P 500 or Nasdaq.That appears to be part of the current story. Some recent earnings batches had respectable positive breadth, but larger negative companies mattered more than the smaller winners.The latest earnings data should therefore be treated as an early warning about market psychology, not proof that the broader equity rally is over.The most interesting markets and setups to watchCould oil become the spoiler for stocks?Brent crude is trading near $87 per barrel, while WTI is around $81.Oil is caught between two powerful forces. Middle East tensions and risks surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are supporting prices. On the other side, weaker demand forecasts and a large increase in US crude inventories are limiting the bullish case.The area around $90 Brent is the clearest macro level to watch.Bullish oil scenario: Sustained acceptance above $90 would suggest geopolitical supply risk is overpowering weaker-demand concerns. Traders could then monitor crude oil, energy producers and relative weakness in rate-sensitive technology stocks. Bearish oil scenario: Rejection in the upper $80s, followed by a breakdown, could favor mean reversion as weaker demand and rising inventories regain attention. Even investors who never trade oil should watch this market. The potential transmission mechanism is straightforward:Higher oil prices → greater inflation risk → higher interest-rate expectations → potentially higher Treasury yields → pressure on expensive growth stocks.What should traders watch in AI and semiconductor stocks?Applied Materials, Cisco and other recent reporters show that an earnings beat alone is no longer enough to guarantee a bullish reaction.For potential longs, traders may want to watch strong companies that initially sell off after earnings but subsequently reclaim the breakdown area. That can show that the market has absorbed the disappointment and is beginning to accept higher prices again.For potential shorts, failure to reclaim the post-earnings gap can support a continuation or fade setup, particularly when the stock entered earnings with an extended valuation and exceptionally high expectations.The key question is not simply whether the stock initially rose or fell:Does the market accept the new post-earnings price, or does it quickly reverse the reaction?Is the gold pullback a possible opportunity?Spot gold is trading near $4,324, while US gold futures are around $4,379.The current decline looks more like profit-taking following a strong advance than definitive evidence of a larger bearish reversal. Gold continues to receive support from geopolitical uncertainty, central-bank demand, portfolio diversification and reduced expectations for additional Fed tightening.One possible setup is to wait for a controlled pullback that forms a higher low. The bullish case would strengthen if buyers defend support while Treasury yields and the US dollar remain contained.The setup weakens if gold breaks deeper support at the same time that yields and the dollar accelerate higher.Why USD/JPY near 160 deserves attentionUSD/JPY is approaching the psychologically important 160 area.Large round numbers can attract profit-taking, stop orders, options activity and concerns about possible official intervention. Traders should focus on the reaction rather than automatically buying or selling at the number. Sustained acceptance above 160 could support another momentum move higher. A sharp rejection could produce a tactical bearish setup. This is a useful example of why price behavior around a level is often more informative than the level itself.What would confirm a broader defensive shift?The warning from recent earnings would become more convincing if upcoming batches show several of the following: Fewer than half of reporting companies rise. Large-cap earnings reactions remain negative. More stocks fall beyond their options-implied moves. Semiconductor weakness spreads across the sector. Recent earnings losers fail to recover. Previous earnings winners begin surrendering their gains. The defensive interpretation would weaken if major earnings losers recover, large-cap winners reappear, semiconductor leadership strengthens and positive reactions again exceed expected moves.For now, US equities remain supported, but the easy phase of simply chasing strong indexes and AI enthusiasm may be becoming more complicated. Oil, Treasury yields and post-earnings price acceptance should provide the clearest evidence about what comes next.These are market scenarios and areas to monitor, not guarantees or individualized investment advice. Traders should define their confirmation, invalidation and maximum acceptable risk before entering a position. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The US dollar is trading lower across the board to start the North American session on Friday, with the greenback losing ground against all of the major currencies. The NZD is leading the way, rising 0.62% versus the USD and back above the 100 and 200 hour MAs (see chart below), while the GBP is up 0.39%, the CAD is up 0.37%, the EUR is up 0.35%, and the JPY is up 0.22% versus the dollar. For the three major pairs covered in the Kickstart video, that translates into EURUSD and GBPUSD moving higher, while USDJPY is moving lower.In today's Kickstart video, I take a technical look at three of the currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - identifying the bias, the risk levels that could shift that bias, and the key targets ahead. Those are the three things every trader should be aware of as the North American trading day gets underway.For the Japanese yen and the Bank of Japan are a major focus today following reports that the BOJ could raise rates as soon as its September 17-18 meeting and may accelerate the pace of tightening thereafter. The BOJ has generally been raising rates at a pace of roughly twice a year, but growing concerns about inflation and continued yen weakness are increasing the pressure to move more quickly. Reuters reports that markets are now pricing in nearly an 80% probability of a September hike.USDJPY initially reacted to the report by falling from around 159.32 to 159.15 before paring some of that decline. However, higher BOJ rates do not necessarily guarantee a sustained yen rally. Justin spoke to 3 reasons why the BOJ might not be able to save the JPY.  Japan's fragile fiscal position limits how aggressively the BOJ can tighten, real interest rates remain low, and markets have already priced in significant additional tightening. The BOJ may therefore need to do more than simply raise rates—it may need to surprise traders with the speed and extent of future tightening to generate a more lasting change in the yen's trend. The recent experience with intervention also shows the challenge, with the yen having already surrendered roughly half of the gains generated by the joint US-Japan intervention. (Reuters)In the Eurozone, the second estimate of Q2 GDP showed growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Q1 growth was revised down to 0.0% from +0.1%, while the economy grew 1.0% from a year ago. The report has had limited market impact, with attention remaining on central-bank policy, inflation and geopolitical developments.In the European stock market, the major indices are mostly higher as North American traders enter for the day. Germany's DAX is leading the gains, while France, the UK and Italy are little changed.DAX: +0.79%CAC: +0.06%FTSE 100: +0.01%Ibex: +0.18%FTSE MIB: +0.03%In the US stock market, futures are pointing to a mixed opening. The S&P 500 closed at a record level yesterday, helped by another softer US inflation report, but the major averages are showing only modest changes ahead of today's open. S&P: +4.26 pointsDow: -61 pointsNasdaq 100: +82 pointsIn the US debt market, Treasury yields are mixed, with the shorter end slightly lower and the longer end moving higher. That is producing a steeper yield curve, with the largest move coming in the 30-year yield.2-year: 4.1376%, down 0.2 basis points5-year: 4.3162%, up 0.3 basis points10-year: 4.6526%, up 1.2 basis points30-year: 5.2361%, up 2.5 basis pointsIn commodities, crude oil is trading modestly higher and holding above $81, while precious metals are also seeing gains. Gold is up 0.19%, while silver is outperforming with a gain of nearly 0.5%.Crude oil: $81.71, +$0.46 or +0.57%Gold: $4,358.34, +0.19%Silver: $64.78, +0.48%Bitcoin is moving in the opposite direction, trading lower on the day and back below the $63,000 level.Bitcoin: $62,817, down $601 or -0.95%On tap for economic releases today, the US consumer takes center stage today, with July retail sales highlighting the 8:30 AM ET data slate. After this week's CPI and PPI reports showed inflation moderating, the retail sales data will give traders another piece of the puzzle—this time on the strength of consumer spending. Later, the preliminary University of Michigan survey will provide an update on consumer sentiment and, importantly for the Fed, inflation expectations.8:30 AM ET — US Retail SalesRetail sales MoM: +0.1% expected vs +0.2% priorRetail sales ex-autos: +0.2% expected vs -0.2% priorRetail sales ex-gas/autos: +0.4% priorRetail control group: +0.3% expected vs +0.5% priorRetail sales YoY: +6.72% prior8:30 AM ET — CanadaManufacturing sales MoM: -0.1% expected vs +1.3% priorWholesale trade MoM: +2.7% expected vs 0.0% prior10:00 AM ET — US Business InventoriesBusiness inventories MoM: +0.1% expected vs +0.3% priorRetail inventories ex-autos: -0.2% prior10:00 AM ET — University of Michigan preliminary August surveyConsumer sentiment: 54.5 expected vs 55.2 prior monthCurrent conditions: 55.0 expected vs 54.8 priorConsumer expectations: 55.2 expected vs 55.4 prior1-year inflation expectations: 4.2% prior5-year inflation expectations: 3.3% priorThe 8:30 AM retail sales report is the main event. A stronger-than-expected report would reinforce the idea that the US consumer remains resilient, while a downside surprise would add another softer data point following this week's inflation reports. At 10:00 AM, the Michigan 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations will also be worth watching closely for what they say about whether consumers see the recent moderation in inflation continuing. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.