Trump on Truth Social:The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.” Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMPNice words followed by the usual threat of blowing up everything if a deal isn't reached. The algos reacted positively to the first line but the moves are now getting faded as this is likely another attempt to jawbone oil prices and stop the stock market bleeding.As a reminder, Trump's "ceasefire" expires on April 6, which is next Monday. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Iran's FM spokesperson: US proposals have mostly been 'unrealistic and excessive'USDJPY falls below the key 160.00 handle amid intensifying verbal interventionMonth-end flows point to dollar buying into the fix - BofADollar buying looks to be the flavour this month-endBOJ reaffirms that underlying inflation is rising moderately towards 2% levelBavaria March CPI +2.8% vs +1.9% y/y priorEuro area economic sentiment eases in March as Middle East conflict stokes inflation fearsMarkets:WTI crude oil trades near three-week high at $101.67S&P 500 futures up 0.5%, European indices more mixed10-year Treasury yields down 5 bps to 4.39%USD mostly higher, only USD/JPY down 0.5% to 159.55 amid Tokyo verbal interventionGold up 0.8% to $4,530, Silver up 2% to $70.99It was a quieter session in general as we continue to wait on further developments on the war in the Middle East.US president Trump set a date for 6 April in getting a deal done while not striking at key Iranian energy facilities. But with today gone, that is one more day closer to the deadline. And still, it doesn't seem like we are anywhere near with Iran reaffirming that the proposal by the US is something they can't ascribe to.Meanwhile, ground forces are beginning to move and that is something that could result in further escalation in the conflict. So, there is that.Oil prices are keeping higher with WTI crude even hitting a three-week high of $103 earlier in the day before coming off slightly. Still, we are seeing prices hold up at around $101.67 currently. And with no change to the Strait of Hormuz situation, there is no change to the outlook that things will get more crippling for the oil market day by day.Despite oil trading back above three figures, the risk mood remains calmer somewhat - at least for now. US futures are sitting higher while European indices are at least not bleeding out any further. That comes as 10-year Treasury yields also cool slightly with it being down 5 bps to 4.39%. As such, S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% but let's see what Wall Street has to say later.In FX, the dollar is mostly a little higher on the day with EUR/USD nudging down below 1.1500 and AUD/USD down 0.2% to 0.6855 currently. The only exception is USD/JPY, which is down 0.5% to 159.50 levels after some verbal intervention by Tokyo after the pair hit above 160.00 earlier in the day.As we get into the new week, just be reminded that it is month-end and quarter-end as we look to wrap up March trading. That might be a factor in making things a bit more messy in terms of price action dynamics in the sessions ahead. So, just be wary of that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe S&P 500 broke through a key support on Friday and extended the losses into new lows as traders hedged into the weekend risk. Those hedges are being unwound today given that nothing happened over the weekend. The focus remains solely on the US-Iran negotiations and there’s some cautious optimism as Pakistan confirmed that negotiations may take place in Islamabad in the coming days and Trump said that they are performing extremely well and they could make a deal pretty soon, although he added that they might fail as well.The path of least resistance remains to the downside until we get a resolution. Traders will keep a watchful eye on the headlines and especially on Trump’s Truth Social account, as we are always one post away from huge market moves. Trump's ceasefire expires on April 6, so there's a chance we get a deal before that as failure to reach one would increase substantially recession risks. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 broke through the key support around the 6,525 level again on Friday and eventually extended the losses into the 6,363 level before bouncing. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the broken support turned resistance to position for new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to extend the pullback into the major trendline.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the 6,525 resistance.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will look for a rejection around the trendline, while the buyers will look for a break. The red lines define average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow, we get the US Consumer Confidence and US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP, the US Retail Sales and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

No direct talks with the US took place, only messages via intermediaries Proposals conveyed to Iran have mostly been 'unrealistic, unreasonable and excessive'Tehran is dismissing reports of direct negotiations with Washington, clarifying that recent diplomatic exchanges have been limited to messages conveyed through third-party intermediaries. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, emphasized that these communications do not constitute formal "talks," reiterating the long-standing refusal to engage in direct dialogue under current conditions.According to the Foreign Ministry, the proposals received from the US via these mediators have been largely characterized as "unrealistic, unreasonable, and excessive." Iranian officials suggest that the terms presented by the US side fail to account for regional realities and represent a "maximalist" approach that Tehran is unwilling to engage. The spokesperson noted that Iran’s leadership has reviewed the messages but found the demands to be deceptive, suggesting they are part of a broader strategy to exert pressure rather than a sincere effort at diplomacy.This stance comes amid a backdrop of heightened tensions, with Tehran pointing to past experiences with American diplomacy as a primary reason for its current skepticism. Specifically, Iranian officials cited instances where they claim the US initiated military actions or applied new sanctions while diplomatic channels were still active. As a result, the Foreign Ministry maintained that the country's current focus remains on national defense and sovereignty rather than entering into what it views as a lopsided negotiating framework.While several regional "friendly countries", including Pakistan and Oman, have attempted to facilitate a breakthrough, Iran has remained firm that it will only consider an end to hostilities on its own terms. These conditions reportedly include the total cessation of "aggression and assassinations," guaranteed reparations for war damages, and formal recognition of Iran’s sovereign rights. Until such conditions are met, the Foreign Ministry indicates that any messages from Washington will continue to be viewed as insufficient. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Euro area economic confidence slipped to 96.6 in March, after recording a revised 98.2 reading in February. That's the lowest estimate since September with consumer confidence (-16.3) also falling back on the month to its lowest since the latter months of 2023.It's all coming undone as the US-Iran war stirs up inflation fears in Europe once again. That as energy prices in the region are surging as the conflict spreads through the Middle East, with disruptions to key gas facilities - in particular Qatar.The risk now is that the conflict drags on for longer, and that might see higher prices become more entrenched. In turn, that will feed into broader price pressures in general. The ECB had previously been looking to potential rate cuts if and when German inflation settles, but that particular playbook is now thrown out the window. Interest rate hikes are back on the menu instead.In terms of consumer inflation expectations, the index there is seen rising to 43.4 in the latest report. That is a sharp jump and marks the highest since July 2022.Meanwhile, selling price expectations also rose to 19.7 - up from 11.5 previously. And that is another marked increase to its highest since February 2023.The trend is pointing to a somewhat repeat episode of the 2021-22 inflation scare brought about by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For now, things are more measured with the energy price spike being not as drastic. But again if the situation carries on for longer, the risk of it becoming more and more profound is going to increase day by day. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

According to BofA's month-end fixing model, the dollar is the one favoured as we look to wrap up March and Q1 trading in the coming days. This fits with what was pointed out by both Credit Agricole and Barclays earlier here.Of note, BofA says that:"Our estimates suggest the potential for (1) material inflows into USD-denominated assets (c.+1.0σ) and to a lesser extend EUR assets (c.0.2σ), vs (2) outflows from JPY (c.-1.7σ), EM (c.-1.4σ) and GBP (c.-1.1σ) assets."The rebalancing against the yen and sterling fits with what Barclays was also arguing with their own model as well. So, that is something to take note of just in case.However, BofA does point out that USD/CHF might be the biggest beneficiary in closing out the month:"The direction of travel clearly suggests strong USD/CHF buying, driven primarily by the sharp drawdown in US equities. With bond returns also posting negative returns, we think this could be one of the larger USD/CHF buying months of the year. The signal has been consistent enough for us to have confidence in the direction of flows."The currency pair had a solid run higher last week, gaining 1.4% and is now trying to test resistance around the 0.8000 mark. However, the pair did break above its 200-day moving average at the end of last week. That sees it trade above both key daily moving averages for the first time since March 2025. So, that in itself could be an impetus for further upside potential in the pair. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Composite indicators on medium-to-long-term inflation expectations show a gradual increase towards 2%Underlying inflation must be judged comprehensively by examining a wide range of informationIf recent rise in food prices were to persist, they could exert sustained upward impact on consumer pricesThe output gap has been on an improving trendLabour market remains extremely tight and wages are rising moderatelyFirms are continuing to pass on higher wagesThe mechanism in which wages and prices are rising moderately in tandem has been taking holdIncrease in oil prices can affect underlying inflation in both different directions, upward and downwardGiven changes in firms' price-setting behaviour, prices may not be more susceptible to depreciation in yen currencyFull releaseThere's nothing there that hasn't already been said by the BOJ in recent weeks. That especially after they sort of pushed back against the government in releasing a new monthly core CPI estimate and also revaluing the estimated natural rate of interest in the past week. So, this is just a follow up on that.For some context, the BOJ had been under a bit of scrutiny lately as Japan's headline inflation numbers show a drop back below the desired 2% target level. However, the central bank remains adamant that core prices and underlying inflation in general remains on an upward trajectory.As such, they are defending that raising interest rates remains the right path for monetary policy. That despite also challenges from the government. Hence, resulting in all the "evidence" being released in the past week in trying to prove to markets and the public that they are indeed the ones that are right. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Monday starts quietly, with no significant economic events scheduled for the FX market. For now, the key focus remains on developments about the conflict in Iran.The only other event of note on Monday is Fed Chair Powell’s participation in a moderated discussion at Harvard University in Massachusetts, which will include audience questions. While it is not expected to move markets, it remains worth watching for any noteworthy comments. On Tuesday, the Eurozone will release inflation data, while the U.S. will publish JOLTS job openings and Conference Board consumer confidence. Canada will also report its GDP m/m. Wednesday brings U.S. data including ADP employment change, retail sales m/m, and the ISM manufacturing PMI. Canada will release the BoC Summary of Deliberations. On Thursday, attention will turn to U.S. unemployment claims and Friday the focus will be on average hourly earnings m/m, the non-farm employment change and the unemployment rate. It is also worth noting that banks will be closed in many European countries, Canada and other parts of the world due to the Good Friday holiday, which could result in lower liquidity and more irregular market volatility. Several FOMC members are expected to deliver remarks throughout the week and don’t forget that the daylight saving time change has happened in Europe this weekend. Inflation data for the eurozone is expected to come in stronger, driven by rising energy prices, which could complicate the ECB’s goal for inflation to move toward a more favorable range. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has intensified price pressures, with its effects building throughout the month. However, as the situation is still evolving, it remains unclear how these dynamics will be reflected in the data. Some analysts expect the ECB to begin raising rates later this year, but it is still too early to draw firm conclusions. In Canada, the consensus for GDP m/m is 0.0%, compared with 0.2% previously. Following modest growth in December, the Canadian economy appears to have lost some momentum. This slowdown is largely due to temporary disruptions in the auto sector and weaker housing-related activity, partly driven by severe weather. However, strong energy output and resilient consumer spending have helped cushion the impact. RBC analysts note that early data points to a partial rebound in February, as auto production normalizes and consumer spending remains firm. Manufacturing and wholesale activity are also showing signs of recovery, although housing is likely to remain subdued. Overall, Q1 growth is still expected to be modest, with improvements in February and March offsetting the weak start to the year. On the external side, Canada’s trade deficit is projected to narrow, supported by recovering auto exports and higher oil prices, with further improvement likely if energy markets remain elevated. From a monetary policy perspective, the BoC’s upcoming summary of its March decision is expected to reinforce a broadly balanced stance, suggesting that the current policy rate is appropriately set while officials monitor incoming data. However, the details may provide further insight into how concerned policymakers are about renewed inflation pressures, particularly from higher energy costs. The consensus for U.S. retail sales m/m is 0.4% versus -0.2% previously, while core retail sales m/m are expected to print 0.3% vs. 0.0%. The main driver of this week’s data is likely to be strong auto purchases in February, although the broader outlook remains less encouraging. Elevated energy costs are expected to weigh on consumers’ disposable income, potentially limiting spending on non-essential goods despite the boost from vehicle sales. In the U.S., the consensus for average hourly earnings m/m is 0.3% vs. 0.4% previously. Non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 56K, following a -92K print, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Recent indicators suggest some softening in hiring after February’s downside surprise, which was partly driven by weather-related disruptions. While the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady, there is a risk it could edge up to 4.5%. A weaker-than-expected report could prompt markets to reassess expectations for future Fed rate cuts, which have already been largely priced out amid the conflict in Iran. Given the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment, policymakers are likely to view any short-term spike in energy prices as temporary, rather than as a signal for significant policy adjustments. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, the main highlight will be the German inflation data. We will get first the German states figures which generally give clues on the national CPI data. The national CPI is essentially a weighted average of the states. Having said that, inflation is expected to increase substantially in March due to elevated energy prices, so it's not going to be a surprise at all. The ECB will likely look through the March inflation spike but might also lay the groundwork for a rate hike in June if the US-Iran war and the supply disruptions continue. The market is pricing a 55% chance of a rate hike in April and 86% in June. The total tightening expected by year-end is 72 bps.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the main highlight is Fed Chair Powell's speech. He's unlikely to deviate much from the last FOMC press conference though. We have already gotten some meaningful tightening in financial conditions, which could slow or even avoid second round effects, so there's no need for him to do anything just yet.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS14:30 GMT/10:30 ET - Fed Chair Powell (neutral - voter)20:00 GMT/16:00 ET - Fed's Williams (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

This will be quite the anticipated report to watch in the session ahead. Prior to the US-Iran conflict, German inflation was already the key sticking point for the ECB in preventing the central bank from pursuing further rate cuts. Price pressures in Europe's largest economy have been stubborn and showed little signs of waning upon the turn of the year.So when you factor in the Middle East developments in the past month, everything is turning up bad again. German manufacturing had been on the recovery path upon the turn of the year. And that has helped to alleviate some pressures on the economy for a while now.But with prices set to hit harder there amid surging input cost inflation, that will be a key challenge for the manufacturing sector in the months ahead. That especially if higher energy prices become more entrenched as the Middle East conflict stretches on.And therein lies the risk for inflation in Germany as well. Core annual inflation was seen at 2.5% in February, with services inflation being the main reason for the stickier reading. The latter was seen at 3.2% last month.This time around, headline inflation is likely to see a standout jump as higher energy prices strike first. The war may have been only going on for a month, but the impact will be evident when we see the German price figures later.Of note, headline annual inflation is expected to climb to 2.7% in March - up from 1.9% in February. If met, that will be the highest reading since January 2024. The monthly inflation figure is expected to surge by 1.1%, which will be the highest since September 2022.I wouldn't expect surging prices to hit core inflation just yet. It will take time to filter through but the longer the US-Iran conflict lasts, the odds of that happening are much higher.Here's the agenda for today:0800 GMT - North Rhine Westphalia0800 GMT - Hesse0800 GMT - Bavaria0800 GMT - Baden Wuerttemberg0800 GMT - Saxony1200 GMT - Germany national preliminary figuresDo note that the releases don't exactly follow the schedule at times and may be released a little earlier or later. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1550 level. It's a modest-sized one but not likely to feature much into play. The expiries do sit near the confluence of the key hourly moving averages, seen at 1.1548-57 currently. So, that could add another layer in terms of limiting any upside extensions to price action in the session ahead.The dollar is keeping steadier to start the new week though the risk mood is also calmer after the heavy selloff on Friday. The US-Iran conflict and accompanying headlines remain the key driver of trading sentiment. So, that overrides everything else including the potential impact for any expiries still.In terms of data releases, there won't be much in Europe to shake things up today with only the German CPI figures to work with. That might offer some interest considering that we could start to see some impact of higher energy prices on March data, at least the early signs.Besides all of that, month-end and quarter-end flows will also be a consideration. So, keep that in mind especially as we gear towards the London fix over the next two days.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

I am looking at Etherum via the Ether futures chart looks like a market that is trying to stabilize and mean-revert after a very volatile March.In plain English, ETH had a strong upside push, failed to hold the higher prices, and is now rotating back toward the area where the market has done the most business. That is often what a mean-reversion phase looks like. Price is no longer in a clean impulsive uptrend, but it is also not collapsing. It is searching for balance.Ethereum price structure explainedETH is trading around $2,054, which is a respectable bounce, but the larger structure still shows some technical damage from the failed rally into the $2,390 area. That push higher was rejected, and since then the market has been unable to fully reclaim the more important overhead levels.The main resistance levels on my chart above are still $2,156.5 and $2,209.5. These acted as important ceilings during March. For bulls, that is the area that needs to be retaken and then held. Until that happens, the recent recovery is better described as a bounce inside a broader rebalancing process rather than a confirmed new uptrend.On the downside, the chart shows a very important lower framework around $1,980, then $1,914, then the March swing low near $1,803.5. If the market were to lose those levels in sequence, the deeper floor near $1,748.5 would come back into view.Ethereum technical analysis today: Volume profile and market balanceThe visible profile on the left has a fairly D-shaped look, which is often associated with a more balanced market. Educationally, that matters because a D-shape usually tells you the market is spending time agreeing on value, not trending aggressively away from it.The heaviest trading seems concentrated roughly between $1,950 and $2,080, which helps explain why price is currently gravitating back into that zone. This is where the market has memory. When price is inside that thick part of the profile, it often chops, rotates, and tests both sides before choosing its next directional move.That also fits with the idea of stabilization. ETH is no longer in the fast upside auction that carried it toward $2,390. It is now back near its more accepted value area.An important educational point here is the thinner volume zone above roughly $2,210. Thin areas tend to mean less historical friction. So if ETH can reclaim and hold above the nearby resistance, price can sometimes travel faster through those zones because there is less prior trade there to slow it down. That is why a successful break above $2,156.5 and especially $2,209.5 could open the way back toward $2,390 to $2,405.The technical analysis educational corner: Mean reversion and why it mattersMean reversion does not automatically mean bullish. It simply means the market is moving back toward its central value area after becoming stretched.That is a useful lens for this chart. ETH sold off from the highs, found support, and is now trying to hold around the area where the market has previously accepted price. In technical analysis terms, the current question is whether this is only a temporary return to fair value before another leg lower, or the early stage of a more durable base.Ether's forward curve and broader contextThe forward curve shown on the right is in contango, with later-dated ETH futures priced above the nearer contract. Educationally, contango usually suggests the market is willing to price somewhat higher levels in the future (which is typically "healthy" for the bullish case). It often reflects carry, time, and a market that is not pricing long-term stress as severely as the short-term chart may imply.That said, contango is not the same thing as immediate bullish momentum. The short-term chart still matters. ETH remains below the March highs, and the failure to sustain the move above the mid-March resistance zone leaves a lower-high style structure in place until proven otherwise.Practical reading of the chartA simple way to frame the chart is this:$1,980 is the key pivot and balance area$2,156.5 to $2,209.5 is the overhead gate bulls need to reclaim$1,914 is the next important support if the bounce fadesSo the educational takeaway is:If ETH can continue to hold above the high-volume middle of the range (advanced tip: Watch $2118 in Ether futures, above that, bulls are good... And give it some time to see it's not a "fakie") then the chart starts to shift from stabilization into recovery. If the bounce stalls again under resistance and slips back through the pivot zone, then the market is probably not done testing lower support.In practical terms, this is a chart of rebalancing after failed upside expansion, with the next directional clue likely coming from how price behaves around $1,980 on the downside and $2,156.5 to $2,209.5 on the upside. In between? Remember the key level of $2118 and watch it for guidance, IMHO.Ethereum technical analysis today: What to does the order flow tell us?Prediction Score: +6Score context: On a scale from -10 to +10, a +6 reflects a clear bullish bias with solid conviction, but not an extreme or one-sided setup.After I checked the order flow at Ether futures, the analysis shows that this week opened with a bullish tone in ETH futures.The main reason is that the order flow picture points to buyers gaining the upper hand early and then maintaining that advantage instead of fading quickly. In our heavier internal read of the opening sequence, the important takeaway is that buying pressure was not isolated to just one brief push. It showed enough follow-through to suggest a firmer opening tone.A few things stood out:Delta stayed constructive overall, with several positive pushes that helped confirm buyer control rather than a weak or easily rejected bounce.POC shifted higher and then held there, which is an important clue that the market was willing to do business at stronger prices instead of immediately rotating back down.The opening sequence also showed a healthier pattern of participation, with buyers repeatedly stepping in after minor interruptions rather than losing control of the tape.That combination is why the tone leans bullish. It is not just about one strong bar. It is about the quality of the opening sequence and the fact that price discovery appeared to stabilize at firmer levels.The cautious counterpoint is that an opening can look strong and still lose momentum later. So this is not an automatic call for nonstop continuation. But based on the order flow evidence from the completed opening block, the balance of evidence still supports a moderately strong bullish read.Bottom line for this week's opening order flow at Ethereum:ETH futures opened the week with a bullish tone, supported by constructive delta behavior and a higher, stable POC. Our orderFlow Intel analysis at investingLive.com suggests buyers did enough early on to justify a +6 bullish score, while still leaving room for later confirmation. Visit investingLive.com for additional, original views.Ethereum Today: Beware of the News. Here are the highlights I am looking atThe Fed Factor (Liquidity Watch)Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech later today. Crypto thrives on liquidity; a dovish tone could spark a "risk-on" rally, while hawkish rhetoric will likely trigger a "risk-off" retreat to the US Dollar.Geopolitical Chaos (Inflation & Uncertainty)The Middle East is flashing confusing signals. President Trump claims Iran negotiations are going "extremely well", but physical escalation tells a different story. Following Tehran blackouts, Trump is now targeting Iran's oil. This threatens an inflationary energy shock that could force the Fed to keep rates high. Meanwhile, the conflict is widening, with Israel intercepting drones from Yemen's Houthis.The Crypto Takeaway: Correlated Asset or Digital Gold?These converging events will test crypto's narrative:Risk-Off: If oil spikes from the Middle East conflict and Powell remains hawkish, expect crypto to dump alongside traditional equities as liquidity dries up.Decoupling/Hedge: If Bitcoin catches a bid as a "safe haven" against fiat instability and wartime inflation, crypto could ignore the macro chaos entirely and break upward.Last, a power tip from investingLive.com to our crypto community: Watch the DXY (Dollar Index) during Powell's speech. A surging dollar spells trouble, but a softening dollar amid the geopolitical noise is the green light crypto bulls are waiting for.Remember: No one has a crystal ball and markets can change. Do not take the above Ethereum technical analysis as any promise and you must always do your own research and if you trade or invest, do that that at your own risk only. The above is for educational purposes only. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

It is that time of the month again and the weekend break sort of splits the momentum in closing out March trading this time around. It leaves the last two days of the month to work with, before we transition to April in the middle of the week. That's not quite a clean look and feel to things but it is what it is.As we get into the new week, month-end flows will be a consideration in the sessions ahead. And seeing what analysts are saying, dollar buying looks to be what most are pointing to this time around.Credit Agricole notes that their month-end fixing model is pointing to "moderate" bids in the dollar against the rest of the major currencies bloc."The moves in equity markets, when adjusted for market capitalisation and FX performance this month, suggest that month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be moderate USD buying across the board with the strongest buy signal in the case of the USD vs the NOK."To pair with that, Barclays is also suggesting a similar read as we look to this month-end. The firm notes that there should be "strong" dollar buying this time around for the most part."Our passive month-end and quarter-end rebalancing model shows strong USD buying against most majors, and moderate buying against the EUR, JPY, and GBP."While these flows can be spread out across the span of a few days, just be wary that month-end shenanigans can and tend to also hit closer to the London fix. So, that will be one to watch out for in the coming two days.The dollar itself had already been trading firmer last week, rebounding well after the Monday drop to post a solid weekly advance. Do keep that in mind as well with some key levels on the charts also in play, not least with USD/JPY testing the waters at the 160.00 level. And that could also invite intervention from Tokyo if they see fit. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

US markets will offer some pretty interesting stuff on the calendar this week. As we transition from March to April, the labour market data will come back into the picture this week. That will keep markets on edge, having already to watch for the happenings in the Middle East still.But to start things off, Fed chair Powell will also be making an appearance later today. And that will be the most notable item on the agenda, besides keeping an eye out for US-Iran headline risks.Powell is set to participate in a moderated discussions at the Harvard University principles of economics class. The session is one that is typically part of the university's introductory economics curriculum. While there isn't a clear topic, one can expect Powell to cover a wide range of things from the economy to inflation and monetary policy.I'm quite sure that he will sidestep any questions involving the politicisation of the Fed and what not. That being said, one can reasonably expect US president Trump to snap at Powell again after this engagement. That especially if we hear comments about the Fed wanting to pause on rates and keep their options open amid the situation in the Middle East.The funny thing is that it will be Trump's own doing that is leading to this scenario. Yet, you can be assured that he will still lay blame to Powell for not cutting interest rates.The Fed chair is scheduled to speak at 1430 GMT. So, that will be the highlight of the agenda today. That as it will be a quiet one in Europe as well as a holiday-shortened one. The Easter holidays are coming soon and that markets in Europe will be closed by the end of the week in observance of Good Friday and then Easter Monday the following week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Israel may invite U.S. to relocate Middle East bases after warTrump touts destruction in Iran, Ackman looks forward to a whopping victory dividendAustralia to cut taxes on petrol and diesel use as part of National 'Fuel Security' planReserve Bank of India FX intervention move after hours on Friday. INR chaos day ahead?PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9223 (expected was 6.9205)Japan signals readiness for FX intervention. Yen weakened past 160, has since had a bounceBank of Japan Governor Ueda says will closely watch FX moves (USD/JPY drops)After Tehran had weekend blackouts (strike hits) Trump ups the ante: wants Iran's oilTrump says negotiations with Iran going extremely well, might get a deal soon, or notBoJ leans toward further hikes but flags oil-driven stagflation risksTrump says US could take the oil in Iran (via Financial Times)Bond managers warn markets underestimate growth risks from Iran warVilleroy says ECB ready to act, but too early to discuss timing of any rate hikeUSD is higher at the start of the new weekIsrael intercepts Yemen drones as Houthis expand role in warOil trade has begun for the week - prices higherU.S. allows Russian oil shipment to Cuba amid global energy disruptionsMorgan Stanley warns Australia faces diesel supply shock and growth risksWhere the warmakers are at: US-Iran talks uncertain, military buildup and mistrust deepenNewsquawk Week In Focus: US NFP, ISMs and Retail Sales, EZ CPI, RBA Mins, and BoJ TankanPakistan says it will host US-Iran talks in coming days as more US Marines head to regionMonday open indicative forex prices, 30 March 2026US sends more signals that troop deployments coming. Rubio hints at endgamePrediction markets are no longer just getting faster than traditional coverageTrump jokes about Hormuz as war drags on, markets slide and NATO doubts resurfaceIn brief:Middle East tensions remain elevated with Houthi missile/drone attacks on Israel and Israeli strikes causing temporary blackouts in Tehran U.S. continues military build-up, including Special Forces, as planning for potential ground operations progresses Pakistan to host U.S.-Iran talks, while Trump signals mixed messaging: progress in negotiations but escalation options remain Oil opened higher but pared gains, reflecting ongoing uncertainty around Hormuz flows BoJ maintains tightening bias, while Japan ramps up FX intervention rhetoric, helping push USD/JPY lower RBI FX caps provide modest INR support via forced positioning adjustment Australia cuts fuel taxes despite growing supply shortage risks, raising policy questionsGeopolitical developments continue to dominate the macro backdrop to start the week, with the Middle East conflict showing further signs of regional expansion.Over the weekend, Iranian-backed Houthis launched missile and drone attacks toward Israel, marking a widening of the conflict footprint. At the same time, Israeli strikes reportedly caused temporary power outages across Tehran and surrounding areas, highlighting the ongoing intensity of the campaign.On the U.S. side, the military build-up in the region continued. Several hundred Special Operations Forces, including Army Rangers and Navy SEALs, have been deployed alongside thousands of Marines and 82nd Airborne troops. According to U.S. officials, this positioning is aimed at providing President Trump with additional optionality, including the potential for ground operations.Diplomatically, Pakistan said it will host U.S.-Iran talks in the coming days. However, messaging from Washington remains mixed. President Trump said negotiations are progressing through both direct and indirect channels and could yield a deal soon, while also cautioning that no agreement is guaranteed. He added that Iran has allowed 20 oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting some limited easing in flows. At the same time, Trump reiterated that the U.S. could seize Iranian oil infrastructure, including Kharg Island, underscoring that escalation risks remain firmly in play.Oil prices opened higher but have since edged lower, reflecting this push-pull between de-escalation hopes and ongoing risks.In Asia, the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions reinforced a gradual tightening bias, with policymakers open to further rate hikes if conditions allow. However, caution remains due to Middle East uncertainty and rising oil prices, with some members flagging stagflation risks.Japan also stepped up FX rhetoric. Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura warned that “decisive” action could be taken against speculative currency moves, marking a clear escalation in intervention signalling. This was reinforced by Governor Kazuo Ueda, who emphasised the growing importance of FX in shaping inflation. While not explicit intervention, the tone shift from Ueda helped push USD/JPY lower from near 160.50 to below 160, trading around 159.75 at the time of writing.Elsewhere, the Indian rupee firmed slightly after the Reserve Bank of India imposed new FX position caps after Friday’s close. The move forces banks to reduce short INR positions, providing near-term currency support and signalling a more active defensive stance from policymakers.In Australia, the government announced a cut to fuel taxes in response to rising prices. However, the policy raises questions given the growing risk of diesel shortages. While lower taxes may reduce prices and boost consumption, they do little to address supply constraints and may, at the margin, exacerbate the imbalance between demand and available fuel. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Israel is reportedly considering inviting the U.S. to relocate and expand military bases in the country after the war, signalling a potential long-term shift in regional military positioning, though the plan remains unconfirmed.Summary:Israel is reportedly planning to invite the U.S. to relocate regional bases and build new ones post-war, per Channel 12. Proposal aims to reshape U.S. military positioning across the Middle East. Israeli officials argue expanded U.S. presence would deliver operational and intelligence advantages. Would mark a significant strategic shift in U.S. basing, concentrating assets in Israel. Report is based on unnamed sources and remains unconfirmed by Washington.Israel is reportedly preparing to propose a major realignment of U.S. military positioning in the Middle East, with plans to invite Washington to relocate some of its regional bases to Israeli territory and establish additional permanent facilities after the current conflict ends.According to Israeli broadcaster Channel 12, citing unnamed security sources, the proposal is being framed internally as an opportunity to “reshape the map” of U.S. military deployment in West Asia. The move would reflect both the evolving regional security environment and Israel’s assessment of its own strategic value as a key U.S. ally during the ongoing conflict.Israeli officials cited in the report argue that the war has reinforced the country’s role as a central operational and intelligence partner for the United States. Expanding the U.S. military footprint in Israel, they suggest, would enhance both deterrence and responsiveness, while providing logistical and intelligence advantages in a region facing heightened instability.Such a shift, if pursued, would represent a notable change in U.S. basing strategy. American forces are currently distributed across multiple locations in the Gulf and broader Middle East, allowing for geographic flexibility and risk diversification. A greater concentration of assets in Israel could signal a recalibration toward a more centralised posture, potentially reflecting both operational efficiencies and shifting alliance dynamics.However, the proposal remains at an early stage and has not been confirmed by U.S. officials. Any decision to relocate or expand bases would carry significant political and strategic considerations, including regional sensitivities, host-nation agreements, and the broader implications for U.S. relationships with Gulf partners.From a market and geopolitical perspective, the report underscores how the current conflict may have longer-term structural consequences beyond immediate military developments. While still speculative, it points to the possibility of a more entrenched U.S. presence in Israel and a reconfiguration of regional security architecture.For now, the key takeaway is that the war is not only reshaping near-term risk dynamics but may also be laying the groundwork for longer-term strategic shifts in how the U.S. projects power in the region. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Donald Trump claims major military success in Iran, but provides no verifiable detail on targets or impact. Bill Ackman frames the war as one-sided and bullish for equities, urging investors to “buy quality.” Both messages lean heavily on confidence and narrative, not confirmed data. History suggests early war claims are often overstated or incomplete. Markets typically demand independent verification and sustained de-escalation before repricing risk.Two near-simultaneous messages from Donald Trump and Bill Ackman offer a strikingly optimistic framing of the Iran conflict, but both warrant a cautious reading from a market perspective.Trump declared that “many long sought after targets” in Iran had been destroyed, praising U.S. military effectiveness. However, the statement lacks specificity, no detail on which targets were hit, the strategic significance of those strikes, or any independent confirmation of their success. In past conflicts, initial claims of decisive gains have often been revised as more information becomes available. Without corroboration from defence officials, satellite imagery, or third-party reporting, such statements should be treated as provisional.Ackman’s remarks extend the optimism into markets, arguing that the conflict is highly one-sided and likely to deliver a “peace dividend,” making it an attractive entry point for equities. While this reflects a classic contrarian or pro-risk stance, it assumes a relatively quick and favourable resolution to the conflict, an outcome that remains uncertain. Wars involving multiple regional actors, asymmetric responses, and critical infrastructure risks rarely follow linear paths.There is also a timing question. Markets are currently grappling with elevated oil prices, disrupted shipping flows, and tightening financial conditions. These are typically headwinds for growth and risk assets in the near term, even if a longer-term resolution eventually proves supportive.The key issue is not whether either view is ultimately correct, but whether there is sufficient evidence at this stage to justify such conviction. For now, the balance of information remains incomplete. Military developments are fluid, diplomatic signals are mixed, and the risk of escalation—including broader regional involvement—remains present.In that context, both statements can be seen as narrative-setting rather than data-confirming. Markets tend to be more cautious, requiring confirmation through sustained changes in energy flows, geopolitical stability, and policy responses before fully embracing a bullish “peace dividend” scenario.Ack. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian Prime Minister Albanese has announced that the National Cabinet meeting today adopted a National Fuel Security Plan.Among the measures:Government will halve the fuel excise on petrol and diesel for three monthsWill reduce the heavy vehicle road user charge to zero for three monthsI am probably going to be the most hated person in Australia for pointing this out, but here goes:A reduction in taxes on a good will, all else equal, tend to increase demand for that good by lowering the price consumers pay. Taxes effectively act as a wedge between what producers receive and what consumers pay. When that wedge is reduced, the final price typically falls, encouraging higher consumption.In economic terms, this results in a movement along the demand curve rather than a shift of the curve itself. As prices decline, consumers are willing and able to purchase more of the good, leading to an increase in quantity demanded. The magnitude of this response depends on price elasticity. Goods with elastic demand, where consumers are sensitive to price changes, tend to see a larger increase in consumption, while inelastic goods experience a more muted response.However, the real-world impact can vary. Producers may absorb part of the tax cut, limiting how much prices fall. Supply constraints can also cap how much consumption increases, even if prices decline. Additionally, if the tax cut is seen as temporary, consumers may not significantly change their behaviour.A common example is fuel: cutting fuel taxes reduces pump prices, which can lead to increased driving and higher fuel consumption, reinforcing the link between tax policy and demand. Some are going to argue that demand for petrol/diesel is inelastic and this is somewhat true. For people having to drive for work etc. sure, but for those heading out for a weekend trip, no. ---Cutting the heavy vehicle toll is more defensible, moving goods requires trucks and offsetting the high fuel price this way makes more sense. ps. An Australian National Cabinet meeting is a forum where the Prime Minister and state and territory leaders (premiers and chief ministers) come together to coordinate policy and decision-making on issues that affect the whole country. It replaced the former Council of Australian Governments (COAG) in 2020 to allow for faster, more flexible collaboration—initially during the COVID-19 pandemic. While it is not a legislative body and cannot make binding laws on its own, it plays a key role in aligning federal and state responses on areas such as health, the economy, energy, and infrastructure, helping ensure a more unified national approach. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The RBI’s after-hours announcement of FX position caps is being viewed as a form of indirect intervention to support the rupee. While the policy forces short covering and limits speculative pressure, banks warn that rapid implementation could trigger disorderly unwinds and near-term volatility.Summary:The Reserve Bank of India announced new FX position caps after Friday’s market close, signalling a reactive, intervention-style move to stabilise the rupee. Banks must cut net open rupee positions to $100m by April 10, effectively forcing short INR reduction and USD selling. The rupee hit a record low (94.84/USD), pressured by oil and foreign outflows tied to the Iran war. Banks are requesting a three-month transition, warning a rapid unwind could trigger disorderly flows and losses. Policy is INR supportive but execution-sensitive, with risk of short-term disruption as positions are adjusted.Indian banks are pushing back against newly announced foreign exchange restrictions from the Reserve Bank of India, framing the move as a de facto intervention in currency markets that could trigger short-term disruption if implemented too quickly.The RBI announced after the market close on Friday that banks must cap their net open rupee positions in the onshore deliverable market at $100 million by the end of each business day starting April 10. The timing of the announcement, outside trading hours,s ignals urgency and aligns with a broader effort to stabilise the rupee following its slide to a record low of 94.84 per U.S. dollar.The currency has come under sustained pressure amid a surge in oil prices and heavy foreign portfolio outflows linked to the Iran war. As a major oil importer, India faces structurally higher U.S. dollar demand when energy prices rise, while capital outflows further amplify depreciation pressure.Against this backdrop, the RBI’s move is being interpreted by market participants as a form of indirect FX intervention. By imposing strict limits on net open positions, the central bank is effectively forcing banks to reduce short rupee exposure. This creates mechanical demand for the rupee, particularly into daily closes, and constrains the ability of institutions to build large bearish positions. In practical terms, it acts as a cap on USD/INR upside by compelling banks to square positions and supply dollars back into the market.However, banks warn that the speed of implementation could prove destabilising. Treasury officials from both domestic and foreign lenders have raised concerns that the short compliance window may trigger a disorderly unwinding of existing trades, particularly arbitrage strategies between the offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market and the onshore market. These positions are heavily concentrated in the one- to three-month tenor, meaning forced early exits could generate one-sided flows and mark-to-market losses.Lenders have asked for a three-month transition period or permission to hold existing positions to maturity, arguing that a more gradual adjustment would allow exposures to roll off naturally and reduce the risk of abrupt market dislocation.The situation underscores the RBI’s balancing act. While the policy is clearly aimed at defending the rupee and restoring orderly conditions, it introduces near-term execution risk. In essence, the central bank is tightening control over positioning rather than deploying reserves directly, but the effect is similar: limiting downside pressure on the currency.For markets, the takeaway is twofold. The move signals a clear shift into defensive mode from the RBI, but also raises the likelihood of short-term volatility as positions are recalibrated. The policy may slow depreciation and compress speculative pressure, but the underlying drivers—oil prices and capital flows—remain firmly in place.---The RBI’s cap on net open positions effectively forces banks to reduce short INR exposure, creating consistent end-of-day demand for the currency as positions are squared. By limiting how large bearish bets can be, it dampens speculative pressure and curbs momentum-driven depreciation, particularly into the close. The move also indirectly increases USD supply in the onshore market, helping cap USD/INR upside. However, while this supports the rupee in the short term and smooths volatility, it does not address underlying pressures such as higher oil import costs and ongoing foreign outflows. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence.PBOC injects 269.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged rate) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.