Key takeaways Silver’s bullish trend remains intact despite volatility: A sharp 13% flash crash failed to break the ascending trendline from early January, with prices holding above the key US$99.39 support, preserving the short-term bullish bias.Top-performing asset YTD, driven by macro tailwinds: Silver is up ~52.5% YTD, outperforming gold by a wide margin, supported by a weaker US dollar and heightened geopolitical risk that amplifies its higher-beta characteristics.Momentum and relative strength still favour upside: RSI indicators remain above key support levels, while Silver continues to outperform Gold on a relative basis, keeping higher resistance targets in play unless US$99.39 decisively breaks. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: Silver (XAG/USD) resumes accelerated uptrend, US$90.90 upside trigger to watch”, published on 14 January 2026.Silver is the top asset performer so far zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Year-to-date performances of major cross assets as of 26 Jan 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Silver (XAG/USD) has soared as expected, cleared above the highlighted US$90.90 trigger level, and hit our intermediate resistance level of US$101.15 as highlighted in our previous analysis.Among the major cross-asset classes, Silver has emerged as the top-performing asset. Based on year-to-date performance as of Monday, 26 January 2026, spot Silver (London Bullion Market Association) has recorded a stellar gain of 52.3% (see Fig. 1).It even surpassed spot Gold (+16.6%) by around three times due to its higher beta factor, supported by a continuation of the weakening US dollar trend since 15 January 2026 and elevated geopolitical risk premium reinforced by an expansionary/aggressive US White House’s foreign policy.On Monday, 26 January US session, Silver (XAG/USD) soared to a fresh intraday all-time high of US$117.54 before it tumbled swiftly 13% in the next four hours to hit an intraday low of US$102.52 on Tuesday, 27 January Asian session.Silver (XAG/USD) has recovered partially with an intraday gain of 8.6% to trade at US$112.72 at the time of writing.Let’s now dissect the latest short-term (1to 3 days) trajectory of Silver (XAG/USD) from a technical analysis perspective.Short-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Bullish; remains supported by ascending trendline zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Silver (XAG/USD) minor trend as of 27 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 3: Silver (XAG/USD) medium-term trend as of 14 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Despite the latest 13% plunge, Silver (XAG/USD) has continued to trade above a key minor ascending trendline in place since the 8 January 2026 low of US$73.84, now acting as a support at around US$99.39.Hence, watch the 99.39 short-term pivotal support to maintain the minor bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$119.54/121.61 and US$126.12/127.62 (Fibonacci extension clusters) (see Fig. 2).On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below US$99.39 invalidates the bullish tone to open scope for a deeper minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate support at US$95.88 before the medium-term pivotal support zone of US$92.24/87.72 (also the 20-day moving average).Key elements to support the bullish bias Both the 1-hour and 4-hour RSI momentum indicators of Silver (XAG/USD) have continued to remain above their respective key ascending supports, holding above the 50 level. Bullish momentum remains intact.The 4-hour relative strength ratio of Silver/Gold has continued to trend higher above its 20-day moving average, which suggests potential continuation of Silver’s outperformance against Gold in the medium-term time horizon (see Fig. 3). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

EU/India Reach Trade Deal Most Read: 2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityOn Tuesday, India and the European Union signed a long-awaited deal to lower import taxes on most goods. The goal is to increase trade between the two regions and rely less on the United States.Key points of the deal:Benefits for the EU: The deal removes or lowers taxes on almost 97% of European goods sold to India. This is expected to double EU exports to India by 2032 and save European companies about €4 billion ($4.75 billion).Benefits for India: Over the next seven years, the EU will cut import taxes on 99.5% of goods coming from India. Taxes will drop to zero for Indian seafood, leather, clothes, chemicals, rubber, metals, and jewelry.What is excluded: Farming products such as soy, beef, sugar, rice, and dairy are not included in this agreement. The trade negotiations between the EU and India, which had dragged on for twenty years, finally sped up after the United States imposed a 50% tax on certain Indian goods. This urgency was further driven by US allies reacting to President Trump’s tariff threats and his controversial attempt to buy Greenland. In response to this global tension, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently gave a popular speech urging medium-sized countries to band together for protection. He now plans to visit India to sign new agreements on uranium, energy, and minerals.Economically, the EU has established itself as India’s top partner. Last year, trade between the two reached $136.5 billion, surpassing India’s trade with both the United States ($132 billion) and China ($128 billion). According to an Indian government official, lawyers will spend the next five to six months reviewing the final details of the agreement. Once that legal check is complete, the deal will be formally signed and is expected to be fully in action within a year.European Session - Puma Soars 19% European stock markets rose on Tuesday, driven by good news from major companies that helped calm fears about global trade tensions. The main European index, the STOXX 600, increased by 0.34% early in the day. This rise highlights how investors are currently relying more on specific company updates rather than general economic news to guide their decisions during these uncertain times.Several companies saw significant gains. Puma’s stock soared 19%, its highest level since last March after the Chinese company Anta Sports bought a 29% stake in the business for €1.5 billion ($1.8 billion). This deal is expected to boost Puma's sales in the massive Chinese market. Additionally, shares in the Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche rose nearly 1% after it announced successful trial results for a new weekly weight-loss drug.On the political front, markets remain worried about the long-term stability of global trade. These concerns persist because US President Donald Trump has threatened to raise taxes on cars from South Korea and other imports, citing delays in a trade deal signed last year.On the FX front, the US dollar rose slightly on Tuesday but struggled to build significant momentum as traders remained cautious. Markets are on high alert for potential government intervention from the US and Japan to stabilize currency rates, and investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday. This caution has helped the yen steady in the 153 to 154 range, a solid recovery from its recent low of 159.23. By the end of trading, the dollar was up about 0.4% against the yen at 154.75.Broader measures of the dollar showed a 0.2% increase, marking its first gain in four days, though it is still down about 1% since the start of the year. Other major currencies pulled back slightly from recent highs. The euro dropped 0.2% to $1.1855, and the British pound dipped marginally to $1.3668, though both remain close to their four-month peaks. Similarly, the Australian dollar slipped slightly but stayed near its highest level in 16 months.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices rose on Tuesday, hovering just below the $5,100 milestone that was reached for the first time yesterday. Market participants are flocking to the metal as a safety net due to growing uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s policies. As of late morning, the spot price of gold had climbed 1.6% to $5,092.09 per ounce, staying close to the all-time high of $5,110.50 set on Monday. US gold futures for February also posted a small gain.It was also a volatile day for other precious metals. Silver jumped 8.4% to trade at $112.57 per ounce. This follows a record high of $117.69 on Monday, meaning silver has already surged by over 50% just since the start of the year. Meanwhile, platinum fell 2.5% to $2,689.12 per ounce after hitting a record high yesterday, whereas palladium saw a gain of 3.3%, rising to $2,048.28.Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday after a massive winter storm struck the US Gulf Coast, disrupting oil production and refineries. However, the price increase was limited because oil supply from Kazakhstan has started flowing again. Brent crude increased by 23 cents to $65.82 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose by 29 cents to $60.92. The severe weather has strained power grids and energy infrastructure across the US. Experts estimate that over the weekend, American oil producers lost about 2 million barrels per day, which is roughly 15% of the country's total output.Read More: FOMC Meeting Preview: Fed To Keep Rates on Hold, Implications for the DXY and GoldMeta Platforms (META) Q4 Earnings: The AGI Capital Pivot as Forward Guidance on CapEx Holds the KeyGet ready for an agitated FOMC Week – Markets Weekly OutlookEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts Data is largely thin today with Geopolitical developments likely to remain key. Greenland, tariffs, US-Iran among other discussions may be key drivers today.There is also a host of US companies reporting earnings today which could also stoke volatility. The only US data of note is the weekly ADP jobs numbers. Barring a negative print here, the DXY can work its way higher and potentially fill Monday's gap to 97.42. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index has bounced off the 100-day MA on the four-hour timeframe.This puts the index looking like it is on its way to fresh highs once more.Immediate resistance rests at 10243 with a break above eyeing the 10277 handle before the 10300 handle comes into focus.A move lower here may find support at 10178 before the psychological 10000 handle and the 200-day MA at 9973 comes into focus.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: FOMC Meeting Preview: Fed To Keep Rates on Hold, Implications for the DXY and GoldAs Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) prepares to release its Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 financial results on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, the company stands at the precipice of the most aggressive capital deployment cycle in the history of the technology sector.What to Expect? The narrative surrounding the stock has shifted fundamentally from the "Year of Efficiency" that defined the post-2022 recovery to a new, capital-intensive paradigm focused on the pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).The upcoming earnings print, while technically a report on the holiday quarter’s advertising performance, will effectively serve as a referendum on CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s "Founder Mode" strategy, a vision that prioritizes long-term technological dominance in AI infrastructure over near-term free cash flow preservation.Meta’s main money-maker, its advertising business is stronger than it has been in five years. Experts on Wall Street expect the company to bring in between $56.8 billion in the final three months of 2025, which is a 21% jump compared to the year before. zoom_out_map Source: Created by Zain Vawda, Google Gemini Why is this happening?Several key factors are driving this growth:Smarter Ads: New AI tools (like Advantage+) are making ad targeting much more effective.Reels is Paying Off: Meta has figured out how to make more money from its short-form video content.Currency Trends: The global exchange rate is currently working in the company’s favor.While total revenue is soaring, the actual profit per share (EPS) is only expected to grow by about 2% (landing around $8.15 to $8.21). This is because Meta is spending massive amounts of money on research, development, and new equipment, which is starting to eat into their profit margins.The End of "Efficiency" and the Rise of "Superintelligence" From Opex Discipline to CapEx AggressionThe "Year of Efficiency" in 2023/2024 was characterized by headcount reductions and the flattening of organizational structures. This phase successfully restored investor confidence and drove the stock price recovery. However, 2025 marked the beginning of a new phase: the "AI Arms Race."Unlike the Metaverse pivot of 2021, which was viewed skeptically as a drift away from core competencies, the current pivot to AI is directly synergistic with Meta’s core business. The "Meta Superintelligence Labs" are not just building abstract AGI; they are powering the recommendation algorithms that keep users glued to Instagram and the ad-ranking engines that maximize ROI for advertisers. Nevertheless, the costs are staggering. The firm raised its full-year 2025 CapEx guidance multiple times, landing at $70–$72 billion, a 70% jump from the previous year.The "Founder Mode" ParadigmA critical qualitative factor influencing institutional sentiment is the governance structure of Meta. Analysts at Rothschild Redburn have upgraded the stock to "Buy" with a $900 price target, explicitly citing CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s "founder mode" as a long-term positive. This term describes a leadership style where the founder, insulated by dual-class share structures, ignores short-term Wall Street pressure to pursue generation-defining technological shifts.While "founder mode" allows for bold bets, it also introduces principal-agent risk. Investors are effectively passengers on Zuckerberg’s vessel. With reports that he is pursuing AI investments "regardless of financial cost," the Q4 earnings call will be scrutinized for any signs of fiscal guardrails. The concern is that without external checks, the pursuit of Llama 4 and beyond could lead to a period of "profitless prosperity," where revenue grows but free cash flow evaporates into GPU clusters.The Valuation DisconnectDespite the stock’s 12.74% rise in 2025, Meta underperformed the Nasdaq 100 (which gained 21%). This underperformance has created a valuation anomaly. According to KeyBanc Capital Markets, Meta currently trades at its widest price-to-earnings (P/E) discount to Alphabet since 2022, with a gap of approximately 7x.Current P/E: ~29.29xPEG Ratio: 4.12Gross Profit Margins: ~82.01%.This discount suggests that the market is pricing in a severe "capital penalty", essentially assuming that the billions being poured into Nvidia H100s and Blackwell chips will have a lower Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) than the core software business.The Q4 earnings report is the company’s opportunity to refute this assumption by demonstrating how AI is already accretive to ad revenue.Key Areas to Focus On & Potential Scenarios The primary catalyst for stock price volatility post-earnings will not be the backward-looking Q4 metrics, but rather the forward-looking guidance for 2026 capital expenditures (CapEx). With management having previously signaled that 2026 spending will be "notably larger" than the $70–$72 billion allocated in 2025, market fears have coalesced around the potential for CapEx to breach the $100 billion threshold.This expenditure is driven by the construction of "Meta Compute" centers and the securing of massive energy capacity reported to be upwards of 6.6 gigawatts to power next-generation Llama models and the newly christened "Meta Superintelligence Labs".Q1 2026 Revenue OutlookAnalysts project Q1 2026 revenue to be approximately $51.3 billion.Seasonality: This represents a sequential decline from Q4 (typical for the post-holiday period) but implies a continued 21% YoY growth rate.Significance: Maintaining >20% growth into 2026 would confirm that the ad market recovery is durable and not just a 2025 anomaly.META Daily Chart, January 26, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Scenario Analysis for Earnings DayScenario A: The Bull Case (Probability: 25%)Metrics: Revenue >$59B. EPS >$8.30.Guidance: 2026 CapEx is guided conservatively ($85-90B). Q1 Revenue growth guided to 22%+.Narrative: AI ROI is materializing faster than expected. Ad prices are surging. Reality Labs losses are flat.Stock Reaction: Rapid repricing toward the $800+ targets.Scenario B: The Base Case (Probability: 50%)Metrics: Revenue ~$58.4B. EPS ~$8.15.Guidance: 2026 CapEx guided to $95-100B. Q1 Revenue growth ~18-20%.Narrative: Growth is solid, but the bill is due. Investors begrudgingly accept the high spend because the "moat" argument (6.6GW energy deals) is compelling.Stock Reaction: Range-bound volatility. Stock holds $650 level but struggles to break out until margin compression eases.Scenario C: The Bear Case (Probability: 25%)Metrics: Revenue <$57B (Miss).Guidance: 2026 CapEx >$105B. Reality Labs losses widen to >$7B.Narrative: "Profitless Prosperity." The company is growing revenue but burning all cash on hardware with uncertain returns. The "Metaverse" trauma of 2022 resurfaces, this time labeled "AI."Stock Reaction: Sharp correction. Testing support levels at $550. Lastly and something that may be of interest, is what are the institution's price targets & ratings? zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Data Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 26 Today's session was typical for a FOMC week open: a high-paced start with opening gaps, followed by fading volume and action.Given the current market risks, this lower volume makes sense.Traders are facing a wall of uncertainty, including the potential Iran intervention, recent chaos from the Trump Administration, and the impending nomination of the next Federal Reserve Chair.However, these factors provided the final fuel for the metals melt-up:The US Dollar gapped down sharply, surrendering strength to Gold and Silver.The yellow Bullion reached $5,000, briefly touching $5,130 before correcting. The correction did hit other metals, as seen with Platinum closing down 3%.Outside of a decent performance in US stock benchmarks, the rest of the market was undecided and rangebound – even FX kept calm despite the huge run on the dollar.Unless a major catalyst hits before the FOMC Decision (Wednesday 14:00), do not expect much meaningful movement.In positive news away from the market madness, the body of the last Israeli hostage held in Gaza was found today as the second phase of the ceasefire begins. Discover:US Dollar Index (DXY) on pace to break 97.00 – Why is the Dollar falling ahead of the FOMC?Stocks rally to top of their ranges ahead of FOMC – Dow Jones and US Stocks OutlookFOMC Meeting Preview: Fed To Keep Rates on Hold, Implications for the DXY and Gold zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 26, 2026 Except for Tesla which got rejected hard from angst relative to its earnings (releasing Wednesday after close), the rest of the Market remained very calm.The session is green and all three major US Indexes close higher, with the Nasdaq leading the charge, up a calm 0.50% today.The Russell 2000 however took a hit recently after marking new highs – Not a great sign for small-cap investors.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The daily asset picture resumes today's session very well:High paced opens as trader unwound their weekend risk-trades before the action mean-reverted.An important development to monitor however is the ongoing move in Gold and Silver, that are seeing imminent and very swift selloffs – Pre-FOMC profit-taking?More on this coming up on a Metals update tomorrow.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 26, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Today's session was tricky in the sense that most of the movement happened in the very early session, comprising also the weekend gaps.Notable movers however have been the NZD and JPY, continuing to extend their runs higher. The first is strengthening suddenly from ongoing flows towards less Trump-exposed regions.The latter however, the yen, is being moved by fears of intervention from the Ministry of Finance after recent action took USD/JPY very close to 160.00.Sudden selloffs after such squeezes tend to trigger swift stops and high-volatility cascades.Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar – January 26, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Tomorrow's earning session will focus on key traditional blue chips such as GM, UPS, UnitedHealth or even Boeing (if we can still call it a blue chip).A look at Economic data releasing throughout today and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tuesday’s calendar is lighter but can still offer a few relevant views, led by US data in the morning with ADP weekly employment, housing prices and January consumer confidence setting the tone for USD sentiment.\In Europe, traders will keep an ear on ECB speakers — Nagel and President Lagarde — for any last-minute guidance ahead of next week’s policy decisions.Asia-Pacific closes the day with Australia’s December CPI and trimmed mean figures, a key input for RBA expectations, while the BoJ releases its latest policy meeting minutes, which could stir some further JPY volatility.With the FOMC decision coming the day after tomorrow, traders may be less inclined to take aggressive positions.Expect price action to cool off between data releases, with markets likely shifting into wait-and-see mode ahead of the main event. The only market that shows potential for movement is Metals!Safe Trades, keep a close eye on the Middle East!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Dollar has taken quite a significant hit after its strong start to 2026.This is precisely what happens when technicals align with changing fundamentals. As noted in our pre-Greenland chaos Analysis, the Dollar Index was already showing signs of imminent technical weakness.So when Donald Trump decided not only to launch an investigation into Jerome Powell but also to threaten his historic allies, what was seen as a slow, progressive dedollarization quickly became a catastrophe for the US Dollar.Some European funds are selling their Dollar-denominated debt assets in concern over new, aggressive policies from the current administration and, by actively seeking alternatives, reducing dollar demand – this is leading, in part, to the current decline.Combined with a seasonal tendency for the US Dollar to drop ahead of interest rate decisions during cutting cycles, the weekly drop is getting extreme – fewer participants can absorb sudden outflows ahead of FOMC Meetings for risk-management reasons, amplifying such moves.This dedollarization explains the ongoing run in Gold (which just hit $5,000 today) and other metals – The Debasement Trade for those unfamiliar with the trending financial term. zoom_out_map US Dollar Performance against other FX Majors since last Thursday – Source: TradingView Looking back at the September cut, for example, the Dollar Index had reached 2025 yearly lows, a fast-paced selloff just two days ahead of the Rate Decision.The current situation shows similar conditions, despite no rate cuts anticipated – What interests traders is whether the selloff will continue after the FOMC.For additional foundational context, I strongly encourage you to explore our FOMC Preview.With the Fed Funds rate expected to be kept unchanged, investors and institutions will be listening closely to Powell's speech.A bit less than two rate cuts are currently priced for 2026. With labor conditions seemingly worsening only slightly and inflation remaining closer to 3% than 2% (despite some improvements), the Fed Chair doesn't have many reasons to turn dovish, but the current pricing is still reasonable.Essentially, the more resilient US economy supports the Dollar and could lead to sudden inflows back into the Greenback after the meeting.The difference maker will be found in unpredictable events:The nomination of the next Fed Chair could have a significant influence on the Dollar demand (particularly if Rick Rieder gets selected)If Trump moves to intervene in Iran, the Dollar should appreciate suddenly in pro-dollar risk-averse Market conditions – Kind of similar to what happened after Venezuela.If Trump actually pushes his intense rhetoric further with allies, however, the Dollar outflows will be severe – you would see the results in the Dollar Index flashing below 2025 lows.The FOMC event itself could support the USD but would depend on Powell's tone regarding his 2026 outlook.While we're here, let's see what the charts say in our multi-timeframe analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY) to see if there is still much left in the ongoing down move. Discover:Stocks rally to top of their ranges ahead of FOMC – Dow Jones and US Stocks OutlookMarkets Today: Gold Breaches $5100/oz, Yen Intervention Risks Grow, Dollar Slides. USD/JPY Test 100-Day MAGet ready for an agitated FOMC Week – Markets Weekly OutlookDollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. January 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Technical picture changed suddenly over the past week.Bulls were taking the Index back towards the 99.50 level but with some short-timeframe resistances, bear divergences combined with Trump actually pushing the Greenland theme, the fused technicals and fundamentals had an immediate effect on the DXY, down 2.50% until today.Last week led to a huge gap lower today, with the pre-FOMC position closing effect pushing the Index to test the 96.50 to 97.00 Support.Whether it holds or breaks in the next 1.5 sessions doesn't matter much; the most important will be to see if the Dollar remains above or below after the FOMC.Closing above 97.00 should lead to a slow but consistent rebound back towards 99.00Below however opens the door to test the 2025 lowsThese scenarios are not considering any black swan events.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. January 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, the question remains whether the gap is an exhaustion/low volume gap (implying that an extreme is reached) or whether this is an actual runaway gap (meaning further downside).To help tilt the scales, it is essential to track the path of least resistance.With the 4H RSI in extreme oversold territory and a key support coming into effect, a rebound makes sense. The question is when. Keep in mind that the buying could still not be so sudden as traders remain on the sidelines ahead of the key risk-events coming – Think of how such views could be expressed in different FX pairs.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance LevelsAugust Range Bull/Bear Pivot 97.25 to 97.6098.00 Main Support turned Minor ResistanceHigher timeframe Pivotal Resistance 98.80 to 99.0099.40 to 99.50 January Resistance (last Friday levels)100.376 November highsSupport Levels2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Session lows 96.80September FOMC Lows 96.20Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.0095.00 Main psychologic support1H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart. January 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, one things looks clear – The downside is stalling after a brutal descent.But a slowdown in a downtrend doesn't imply an imminent rebound, buyers will first have to show up.With the selloff stalling at the descending channel lows, imminent downside keeps a lower probability setup. Hence from here, a consolidation range until the FOMC between 96.80 and 97.30 is highly probable.After the FOMC however, the rest will be to see if bulls show up for an upside breakout (to a least test the upper bound of the channel ~98.20).In case they don't, the selloff may continue.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (26/01/2026): In today's episode, we join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart in discussing the latest in FX news, including a rumoured Bank of Japan intervention to prop up yen pricing and a fall in USD value. Otherwise, we also discuss precious metal markets and how a further risk premium is being priced in owing to geopolitical tensions. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Commodities Fly as Yen Intervention Risks Grow Gold prices hit a new all-time high on Monday, climbing above $5,100 per ounce. Market participants continue to flock to safe havens as global uncertainty grows. This year alone, gold prices have jumped more than 18%.Other precious metals like silver and platinum also saw significant price increases as part of this trend. Spot silver advanced 4.8% to $107.903, after hitting a record of $109.44. Spot platinum climbed 3.4% to $2,861.91 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $2,891.6 earlier in the session. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Geopolitical risks continue to grow and include a loss of confidence in the US government. Recent unpredictable decisions by President Trump regarding trade have made market participants nervous.These include threats to put massive taxes (tariffs) on goods from Canada and France, as well as ongoing tensions with Iran. Because people are worried these political moves could harm the global economy, they are moving their money out of riskier investments and into gold.In the currency world, the Japanese yen grew stronger against the US dollar. This happened because there are rumors that the US and Japan might step in together to help stabilize the currency market.This potential intervention is big news because it hasn't happened in 15 years. Meanwhile, Japan is facing its own internal stress as its new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, plans to increase spending and cut taxes, which has made market participants worried about Japan's national debt.Because of all this uncertainty, global stock markets are struggling. Stock prices fell in Japan, and futures for markets in the US and Europe are also down.European Session - European Shares Steady European stock markets stayed mostly flat on Monday morning. Market participants were hesitant to make big moves because of recent global political tension and the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve later this week.While the main European index (the STOXX 600) rose very slightly, different industries saw mixed results; insurance companies saw some gains, while travel and leisure companies saw their stock prices drop.Much of this caution comes from the market's reaction to President Trump’s recent threats regarding trade and taxes (tariffs). Even though those specific threats were taken back, markets are still worried that using tariffs as a bargaining tool could become a common trend that hurts global trade in the long run.Additionally, while most people expect the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates the same this week, there is a lot of talk about whether the central bank is able to make decisions independently from political pressure.In specific company news, car manufacturers saw a small dip in their stock prices, even though reports suggested India might significantly lower the taxes it charges on cars imported from Europe.Meanwhile, the French food company Danone saw its shares drop after it announced a recall of certain baby formula products in specific markets.On the FX front, The US dollar index weakened on Monday, hitting its lowest level in four months.At the same time, the Japanese yen surged to its strongest point since November, jumping more than 1% against the dollar. The euro also performed well, reaching a four-month high.These big moves happened because of reports that the New York Federal Reserve was checking uSD/JPY currency rates, an action usually seen as a sign that the US and Japan might step in together to control the market.Japanese officials have been careful with their words. While the Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, refused to comment on whether they were checking rates, another top official, Atsushi Mimura, confirmed that Japan is working closely with the US and will take the necessary steps to manage the currency.Because the dollar was losing value, other currencies like the British pound, the Australian dollar, and the New Zealand dollar also climbed to their highest levels in months.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices reached their highest levels in over a week this past Friday.This jump happened because US President Donald Trump increased pressure on Iran by placing new sanctions on the ships that carry its oil. He also announced that a group of US warships, which he called an "armada," is moving toward the Middle East.These political tensions have made market participants worried that the global supply of oil could be interrupted.At the same time, oil production in the US has been slowed down by severe weather. A major event called Winter Storm Fern hit the country, forcing many oil and natural gas facilities to shut down. This storm has put a lot of stress on the power grid and reduced the amount of oil being produced.As a result of both the situation in Iran and the storm at home, the prices for Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil both rose by nearly 3% by the end of the week last week with further gains in early trade today.Read More:Get ready for an agitated FOMC Week – Markets Weekly OutlookDollar at its weakest in monthsTech rebalance and volatility catalysts – Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts Data is largely thin today with Geopolitical developments likely to remain key. Greenland, tariffs, US-Iran among other discussions may be key drivers today.On the European front we do have German IFO expectations and a host of ECB policymakers on the docket.Heading into the US session, it is a quiet one with focus likely to be on US-Japan intervention developments while the US dollar risk premium remains elevated. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - USD/JPY From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY has finally had a deep pullback after edging higher since the October 2025 low around the 146.60 handle.The pullback has materialized thanks to a weaker US Dollar and growing fears of joint intervention between the US and Japan. This would be the first intervention of its kind in 15 years.Markets have grown weary of the BoJ issuing intervention comments in recent years but the rumors of US involvement have added further credence to the reports this time around.USD/JPY is down some 600-odd pips since Friday but is currently testing the 100-day MA. The question is can this level or is a retest of 150.00 incoming?Time will tell.Key levels of support on the downside include the 100-day MA at 153.57 before the 151.53 and 150.00 levels come into focus.A recovery from here may face opposition around the 154.60 handle before the 156.27 and 157.90 handles come into focus. zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Wishing you all a positive trading week ahead.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.This week was forged by renewed geopolitical tensions (EU-US, Greenland, Davos) and although it's easing, the tension is not going down.Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.Week in review – Geopolitical turmoil pursues Another week, another spectacular Trump-related volatility event.After threats to the Fed Chair Powell and the Capture of the Venezuelan President, President Trump wanted some more spice.And the spice he gave: Over the weekend, the President threatened many European Nations and leaders with additional tariffs until the US can buy Greenland – a striking demand right as the World Economic Conference was commencing in Davos.The event featured many references and speeches toward a New World Order, one characterized by greater powers (China, US, Russia) expanding their grip. In contrast, others unite – the end of the Rules-Based order of the past 25 years.The best speech is easily Canadian PM Mark Carney's, which suits the current geopolitical landscape perfectly—a must-watch.Luckily for the world as we know it (or at least NATO as we know it), Trump backed off his rhetoric and cancelled tariffs that would have been implemented on February 1 – the tone has largely abated since, even if some worries remain.The higher tensions did not come without a bit of Market Volatility – Stock Markets across the world suffered losses from 1% to 3% as investor sentiment degraded.After all, the Venezuela Capture opened possibilities that would scare anybody: Threats are not all threats; they can turn into harsh realities.Luckily, Trump offered yet another TACO to Wall Street, and they ate at their satiety. Stock Markets are closing the week way closer to their all-time highs. The late session is offering some profit-taking, but Equity benchmarks have recovered most of the correction.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes zoom_out_map Weekly Asset Performance – January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView Metals have shone brightly throughout the week, all gapping higher at the weekly open and extending to continuous record highs as the week progressed.Even Trump's latest TACO didn't scare Gold and Silver bulls, who have brought the precious metals to, or very close to, their following milestones ($100 for XAG/USD and very close to $5,000 for Gold).Except for Stocks, which have remained resilient throughout the chaos, the US Dollar took a gigantic hit as Trump's latest show was not well received by participants. The Dollar Index is down 2% on the week and not showing any signs of slowing its descent.Natural Gas was also a high performer, squeezing amid the Coldest week in North America, supply bottleneck fears over EU-US Beef, and other factors (which I invite you to check in our recent in-depth analysis).The energy commodity went up by about 70% in the span of a week, in a move that traders haven't seen in a while. zoom_out_map Natural Gas (ETF) 1H Chart – January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView Next week shouldn't be much less volatile – Some weekend angst regarding Iran and a general tense atmosphere is raising the temperature. Particularly as the FOMC approaches and Trump prepares to announce the next Federal Reserve Chair. Discover More:Dollar at its weakest in monthsTech rebalance and volatility catalysts – Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookPlatinum on pace to $3,000 – Will XPT/USD have a safe path to the milestone?Gold rally hits $4,900: Why the January FOMC, geopolitics, and technical warnings mark a critical juncture?The Week Ahead – January FOMC/BoC Meetings, the next Fed Chair and more tensionAsia Pacific Markets – Australian and Japanese Inflation Next week should be (relatively) calmer for APAC traders, nevertheless, one can never be too innocent as assets and currencies fly up and down.The Aussie Dollar will be in front of the scene, leading G7 FX Currencies in a fast-paced run throughout the week.AUD got boosted by a hot-economy, strong jobs and persistent inflation. About the latter, the Australian CPI will be closely monitored on Tuesday evening (19:30 ET).Check out our latest AUD/USD analysis to learn more.On the other side of the performance spectrum, the Yen was hurting throughout the entire week before the Ministry of Finance of Japan ran a rate check (Calling banks to know Market rates – a diplomatic move to show that they are watching ongoing developments and usually precede actual interventions.)USD/JPY quickly took a turn lower, going from 159.20 to the current 155.00 in a stellar drop – this would somewhat help the JPY after a disastrous performance. zoom_out_map USD/JPY 1H Chart, January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView Traders will learn more on inflation trajectory (and rate hike expectations) next week with the Tokyo CPI, releasing on Thursday evening (18:30).Apart from these key events, keep an eye on NZD trade data on Wednesday and the Chinese NBS PMIs on Friday evening.Europe and UK Markets – Inflation Expectations, GDP and speeches Next week will be a calmer one for Europe after a high-intensity WEF.Inflation and Business expectations will be published throughout the week for Switzerland and the Eurozone.To accompany the releases, Friday should be quite active with GDP releases for many EU nations including France, Germany, and preliminary GDP data for the Eurozone.In between GDP releases, keep an eye on Unemployment Rate data and CPI for Germany.North American Markets – FOMC Meeting and Bank of Canada Traders attention will be focusing right back to North America, particularly looking at recent Trump rhetoric and upcoming events.Releases will provide some views on economic data, with B-tier releases spanning from Durable Goods to Housing Price Indexes and more.Of course, keep a close eye on the PPI data releasing on Friday morning, only high-tier data of the week (8:30 A.M.)The Bank of Canada will begin the celebrations on Wednesday morning (9:45 A.M.) with their rate decision, which should be a non-event but looking at recent volatility, it will be very interesting to see how Governor Macklem tackles the situation.Loonie traders should also pay attention to Canadian GDP on Friday morning.Not much later on Wednesday (14:30), the classic FOMC will be taking Markets by its hands – Waiting for the event could either be a long, slow walk or a high-paced seesaw adventure depending on what happens over the week.Of course, keep a very close eye on any announcements regarding the Next Fed Chair as the decision could be released anytime and it will be market-moving!And as always these days, keep news in check – things could be heating up in Iran with the latest ammassing of military assets in the Middle East. zoom_out_map Latest News regarding Iran – Source: X, Iran International Next Week's High Tier Economic Events zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (23/01/2026): In today's episode, TraderNick and host Jonny Hart discuss a further rise in precious metal pricing and an apparent wane in the trust and confidence in fiat currencies, especially in the case of the US dollar. Otherwise, we look at recent sterling performance, with GBP/USD rising to multi-month highs. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Suspected FX intervention jolts USD/JPY: After briefly spiking above 159 following BoJ comments, USD/JPY plunged nearly 200 pips within minutes to ~157.30 with no data catalyst, strongly suggesting intervention or rate-checking by Japanese authorities.Momentum signals warn of a trend shift: A bearish RSI divergence on the daily chart flags rising risk of a medium-term reversal after the uptrend since April 2025, with near-term downside pressure building.Key levels define the next move: A break below 157.50 opens downside toward 157.00 and 156.12, while a sustained move above 159.75 would invalidate the bearish view and revive squeeze risks toward 160.25–161.10. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: Japanese yen short squeeze risk,158.15 key USD/JPY trigger”, published on 16 January 2026.Since our last report, the USD/JPY dropped marginally to our highlighted first intermediate support at 157.50 (printed at an intraday low of 157.42 on 19 January 2026 before it traded sideways between 158.50 and 157.50 for the entire week.During today’s Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda’s post-monetary policy meeting press conference, the USD/JPY has staged an intra-session break above the 158.50 printed an intraday high of 159.23 at the 3.00 pm (Singapore time) hour mark as speculators tried to sell the Japanese yen on the backdrop that Ueda mentioned that BoJ may coordinate with the government on the JGB market to encourage stability in the JGB yields, which implied that BoJ may restart its bond purchases programme that can put downside pressure on the JPY.A swift intra-session plunge of 1.2% in USD/JPY smells of intervention Interestingly and swiftly, the USD/JPY plummeted by 191 pips (-1.2%) within the next five minutes from 159.22 to hit an intra-session low of 157.32 at the time of writing without any relevant economic data releases or news flow.This current swift and erratic movement on the USD/JPY has a lingering smell of intervention or rate checking by Japanese banks under the instruction of the BoJ and or the Ministry of Finance because the recent rounds of verbal intervention by Finance Minister Katayama and the BoJ last intervened in the FX market to sell the USD and buy back the yen was on 12 July 2024 when the USD/JPY hit an intraday high of 159.45.Let's now look at the charts.USD/JPY has formed a daily bearish divergence on its RSI zoom_out_map Fig. 1: USD/JPY medium-term & major trends as of 23 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of 23 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The daily RSI momentum indicator of the USD/JPY has flashed out an impending bearish divergence condition at its overbought region, which suggests that the medium-term uptrend in place since 22 April 2025 low is at risk of staging a medium-term (multi-week) bearish reversal (see Fig. 1).In the short-term (1 to 3 days), watch the 159.45/159.75 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 157.50 (also the 20-day moving average) may trigger a potential push down to expose the next intermediate supports at 157.00 and 156.12 in the first step (see Fig. 2).However, a clearance and an hourly close above 159.75 invalidates the bearish scenario for a potential squeeze up towards 160.24/160.35 and even 161.00/161.10 (upper limit of intervention risk zone). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 22 Current Market flows are very tough to predict and erratic as fundamentals keep changing and geopolitical volatility is at its peak.The Greenland situation has largely abated but questions remain, Stock markets are trading as if nothing ever happened around the globe and Commodities are sharing their most helter-skelter sessions – Metals are trading to new highs once again while Energy products got slammed after this morning's EIA Report.A quick bubble pop actually took Natural Gas prices from $5.69 highs this morning to the current $5.10 close (on its CFD), a quick 9% drop. zoom_out_map Natural Gas (ETF) 15M Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Discover: Natural gas explodes by 70% in four sessions: What's next? Oil also took a beating from much higher-than-expected inventories and somewhat calming fundamentals – the rhetoric regarding Iran is still quite passive-aggressive. However, it is tough to predict whether anything will happen, as the Trump Admin still seems to be weighing the risks and rewards of an intervention. Access to Internet was brought back but is severely controlled, while the Iranian population still suffers.A wise trader once told me that when things go all around, and flows get chaotic, focus on whatever makes the most sense. In this direction, it seems that the traders gravitated towards the Australian Dollar.After yesterday's Labor data, the Aussie started a relentless run higher, further boosted by weakness in the US Dollar.As the January 28 FOMC meeting isn't expected to provide much change in interest rates, Currency traders will question a potential RBA Hike, with any such move swiftly priced in – the rate decision is on February 3. Discover:AUD/USD explodes above August 2024 highs – Australian Dollar OutlookGreenland tensions ease, but forecasts for Gold are still very optimisticUS GDP beats and Monday gaps fill – Dow Jones and US Stock Index Outlook zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 22, 2026 Stocks printed some decent charts in the past few sessions as Trade-related tensions have abated – Still, bulls will have to actually push above Indexes' all-time highs to regain a fully bullish path.The answer to ongoing Market confusion could be found on next Wednesday, after the FOMC session and high-importance Mag 7 Earnings!Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView It's tough to reason with today's Market movement, but it's at least good that there is some up-and-down volatility which allows quick entries and profit-taking for Traders.The geopolitical picture is still very confusing so it seems that traders are already backing away from the uncertainty, profit-taking on short-term movements.Keep an eye on Metals which are breaking out further and watch for weekend risk volatile action.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 22, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Today's session was largely marked by the continued upside in Antipodean currencies – the Aussie is leading FX Currencies as it breaks yearly highs against the US Dollar, once again tied loser with the Japanese Yen.Yen sellers could see a quick test of strength in this evening and tomorrow's action, as the world will keep their eyes wide open for the Bank of Japan's Rate Decision tonight.This one could be Market breaking – A hike is almost a certainty, but the question on Japan's Fiscal Policy craziness remains, let's see what the BOJ says.Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar – January 22, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Tomorrow's earning session should be calmer, but expect more volatile earnings next week.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this Weekend and Monday's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Thursday’s session is front-loaded with Asia-Pacific inflation and activity data. New Zealand CPI gets released in a few minutes, followed by Australia’s flash PMIs, setting the tone for regional growth expectations. Attention then turns squarely to Japan in the evening, with national CPI prints ahead of the BoJ rate decision, policy statement and outlook report — a key risk event not only for the JPY but for the rest of the Market, heavily profiting from the current run on the Nippon currency.Friday keeps momentum high across Europe and North America. The UK releases December retail sales before a dense run of flash PMIs from the euro area and the UK, offering an early read on January activity. ECB President Lagarde then takes the stage at the WEF, she has appeared a couple of times already so it'll be interesting to see what more she has to offer.North America wraps up the week with Canadian retail sales (8:30 A.M) and US PMIs (9:45 A.M), before the Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations data conclude a high paced week at 10:00 A.M. With growth, inflation and central bank signals all in play, volatility could stay elevated into the weekly close.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East and Greenland developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian Dollar has grabbed FX traders' attentions for a while now, as data for the Island Continent has consistently beaten expectations.Rate cuts for the Royal Bank of Australia have been tough to program since they began reducing their main policy rate, the Cash Rate, in February 2025.Stubbornly strong economic data, ever-stronger jobs market, and high inflation haven't provided the Central Bank many reasons to cut rates. As a matter of fact, they have only cut three times, from 4.35% to the current 3.60%. zoom_out_map Australian Inflation Rate since January 2025 – Source: TradingEconomics, RBA What is catching traders' attention is the actual repricing of RBA hikes – the current year-end rate is expected to be back above 4%.The Australian jobs report, published yesterday, showed a surprising beat (+65.2K vs 30K estimates), which took the Unemployment Rate to 4.1%, levels unseen since a full year prior.Aussies are facing high inflation as high demand and an ever-hotter economy keep workers and spenders afloat. zoom_out_map Interest Rate-Based Expectations of a 25 bps hike at the Feb 3 RBA Meeting – Source: ASX.com Supported by Chinese stimulus, strong internal growth, and extreme demand for metals, which they are a significant producer of, are among the factors boosting the Australian Dollar at the top of yearly FX currency movement.Particularly as risk appetite stays tight (AUD is a risk-on currency) and Australia is far from Western geopolitical trouble, the currency can't stop attracting further inflows. Adding to this a renewed hawkish stance, while other Central Banks aim for rate cuts, and you get a perfect cocktail for the Aussie.Now, we'll take a look at an AUD/USD multi-timeframe chart analysis to see where the current rally could head. Read More:US GDP beats and Monday gaps fill – Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookGreenland tensions ease, but forecasts for Gold are still very optimisticNatural gas explodes by 70% in four sessions: What's next?AUD/USD Multi-Timeframe Chart AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map AUD/USD Daily Chart, January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Aussie is running higher since December 2025 and its upward performance coordinated a break above its 2021 Long-term downtrend.Now forming a gigantic bullish Daily candle, there won't be much to hold the bullish movement until the 0.69 to 0.6945 Main 2024 resistance.The Daily action is dominated by the bulls and despite overbought RSI conditions, this doesn't look like a trend to fade – At least for now.For long-term traders, keep a close eye on communications from the RBA as a February 3 Hike could get closer ~ At least that's what Rate Futures are pricing.4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map AUD/USD 4H Chart, January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Having sweeped above its Pivot Zone (0.6750), the action remains dominated by the bulls.Levels of interest for AUD/USD TradingResistance levelsDaily Channel highs 0.68850.69 to 0.6945 Main 2024 resistance0.69420 September 2024 highsDec 2021 Lows 0.70 Major Resistance2023 Highs and 0.71 ResistanceSupport levelsOctober 2024 Major Pivot 0.6750 (+/- 100 pips)0.67540 Session lowsSeptember FOMC Highs Support 0.6680 to 0.67100.66 to 0.6630 December SupportJune 2025 Support 0.63 to 0.641H Chart zoom_out_map AUD/USD 1H Chart, January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView AUD/USD is now moving to some new highs at 0.68450 and starting to show some form of slowing.The 1H RSI is now turning lower as a session peak could have been reached and traders take profits.A retest of the 20-Hour Moving Average at 0.68140 could be reached in late-session trading – Aggressive rebounding from here hints at further bull-side imbalance (chase to higher levels)Correcting all the way back to ~0.6800 holds decent odds and could offer decent pullback entry points for late-trend buyers.Closing below the 0.6770 50-Hour MA could lead to further downwards mean-reversionOverall, look for a pullback and watch reactions when the trading gets 150 pips to the 0.69 level (around 0.68850). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The price gap between silver in the US and in Shanghai has widened and is larger than normal.Western prices are driven mainly by futures and paper trading, while Chinese prices reflect physical supply and demand.Strong industrial and investment demand for physical silver in China supports a persistent price premium.Logistical and regulatory barriers limit arbitrage, allowing the divergence to last. In recent weeks, the gap between silver prices in the United States and China has widened noticeably and is now larger than usual. According to the chart, silver is currently priced at around USD 94 per ounce in the US, while the equivalent price in Shanghai is roughly USD 104 per ounce after currency conversion. A spread of nearly USD 10 per ounce is not a minor discrepancy but a meaningful signal that the two markets are being driven by different forces.This divergence is not primarily the result of exchange rates or transaction costs. Instead, it reflects fundamental differences in market structure, pricing mechanisms, and local supply and demand dynamics. zoom_out_map Chart compares daily silver prices from the Shanghai Gold Exchange with Western silver prices, converted to USD/oz using daily CNY/USD rates Paper pricing versus physical metal pricing In the US and Europe, silver prices are largely determined on markets such as COMEX and in London, where futures contracts and financial instruments dominate trading activity. The vast majority of these contracts are settled financially rather than through physical delivery. As a result, prices tend to reflect liquidity conditions, speculative positioning, movements in the US dollar, and interest rate expectations more than the immediate availability of physical silver.In China, pricing works differently. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, physical delivery plays a far more important role. Prices in Shanghai are therefore much more closely tied to actual demand for metal that can be taken out of the exchange system. When demand for physical silver rises, this pressure is quickly reflected in higher local prices.Strong physical demand in China A key driver of the current premium in Shanghai is strong physical demand for silver in China. Silver is a strategically important industrial metal, used extensively in solar panels, electronics, and advanced manufacturing. In addition, Chinese investors tend to place greater emphasis on owning physical bullion rather than paper exposure.When this demand intensifies, local supply can become tight. In such an environment, the market clears not through higher trading volumes in derivatives, but through higher prices for immediately available metal, pushing Shanghai prices well above Western futures-based benchmarks.Supply, inventories, and logistics Differences in local inventories and logistics also matter. If physical silver stocks in China are relatively low while demand remains strong, prices must rise to balance the market. In the US and Europe, where inventories are larger and financial instruments dominate, similar demand pressures may not show up as quickly in prices.At the same time, moving physical silver between regions is costly and complex. Transportation, certification, regulatory requirements, and capital constraints all limit how easily silver can flow from lower-priced markets to higher priced ones. These frictions allow price gaps to persist.Why arbitrage does not eliminate the gap In theory, a USD 10 per ounce price difference should invite arbitrage. In practice, arbitrage in the silver market is far from frictionless. Access to deliverable metal, export and import rules, and the time and cost involved in moving bullion across borders significantly weaken the arbitrage mechanism.As a result, the price link between COMEX and Shanghai is looser than many investors assume, allowing China to trade at a sustained premium.What the current 94 vs 104 USD spread is telling us The current situation - around USD 94 per ounce in the US versus about USD 104 per ounce in Shanghai - suggests that:physical silver is relatively scarcer and more highly valued in China than in Western markets,Western “paper” prices may not fully reflect physical market tightness,the physical market is sending an early signal of supply-and-demand stress.Historically, such sustained premiums on physical markets have often preceded either higher global prices or periods of increased volatility as Western markets eventually react.Silver ETFs see heavy outflows despite firm prices Since the start of the year, silver-focused exchange-traded funds have recorded substantial withdrawals. Data from Bloomberg show that ETF holdings of silver fell by around 528 tonnes within the first two weeks of the year. A significant share of this reduction came from the largest silver-backed ETF in the United States.The rapid appreciation in silver prices appears to have prompted many ETF investors to lock in gains, although part of the decline in holdings may also be linked to physical metal being removed from ETF vaults. Notably, these outflows have not translated into downward pressure on prices, indicating that demand from other parts of the market has absorbed the metal.A comparable dynamic was seen in the palladium market several years ago, when ETF inventories fell sharply even as prices continued to climb. At that time, ETF disinvestment contributed to alleviating tight physical supply conditions. That said, it remains premature to assume a similar outcome for silver, and the current developments should be interpreted cautiously.Conclusion The growing gap between silver prices in the US and in Shanghai highlights the contrast between a financially driven paper market and a physically driven commodity market. The unusually large premium in China indicates that real, deliverable silver is currently more valuable there than futures-based pricing in the West suggests. While this does not guarantee an immediate global repricing, it is a signal that the physical side of the silver market is under pressure and one that global investors would be wise to watch closely. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Pullback, not a trend break: The Hang Seng slipped 1.5% this week on weak China retail sales but remains up 3.7% YTD and continues to outperform major US indices, signalling resilience rather than a structural reversal.USD weakness is the key tailwind: A strengthening offshore yuan (CNH) and a breakdown in USD/CNH point to sustained US dollar weakness, which has historically fed directly into upside momentum for Hong Kong and broader Asia-Pacific equities.Technical setup favours a rebound: The index is holding its 20-day moving average with bullish RSI signals; above 26,870 opens the path toward 27,175 and 27,500, while a break below 26,250 would delay the bullish case with a deeper correction. Since the start of the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has staged a decline of 1.5%, negatively impacted by localized macro headwinds.Mixed tier-one economic data from China was released on Monday, January 19. Industrial production rose by 5.2% y/y in December 2025, accelerating from a 4.8% rise in November and surpassing expectations of 5%; its fastest increase since September.In contrast, retail sales rose modestly by only 0.9% year-over-year (y/y) in December, following a 1.3% increase in November and coming in below expectations of a 1.2% increase. It marked the weakest growth since December 2022, despite one of the top economic priorities being pushed by top Chinese policymakers to increase consumer demand.Hang Seng Index continues to outperform S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJIA zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Year-to-date performances of global stock indices as of 21 Jan 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Overall, despite the current week-to-date loss of 1.5% as of Thursday, 22 January 22, the Hang Seng Index recorded a gain of 3.7%, and still managed to beat three of the major US benchmark stock indices; Dow Jones Industrial Average (+2.1%), S&P 500 (+0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 (+0.3%) except for US small-cap Russell 2000 that ranked the second spot with a rally of 8.7% (see Fig 1.)A stronger yuan (weaker USD) provides a significant tailwind zoom_out_map Fig. 2: USD/CNH medium-term & major trends as of 22 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 3: CNH/USD major trend with Hang Seng Index & other Asia Pacific stock markets as of 22 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) has appreciated significantly against the US dollar since the start of the new year. The USD/CNH broke below a former key medium-term support of 6.9710 (the 26 September 2024 swing low) and traded to a 32-month low of 6.9595 at the time of writing, supported by the continuation of the 2-year yield premium shrinkage of the US Treasuries over Chinese government bonds (see Fig. 2).These observations suggest that the USD/CNH is likely to have transitioned into a potential major downtrend phase, which may suggest further US dollar weakness ahead towards 6.8960 per USD in the first step.Based on intermarket analysis, since 2 December 2025, the inverse of USD/CNH (CNH per USD) has moved in a significant direct correlation with several Asia Pacific stock markets (Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan), and MSCI Emerging Markets ex China (see Fig. 3).The recent rise in the offshore yuan (CNH) has led to similar upside movements seen in the stock markets. Therefore, a further strengthening of the CNH against the US dollar is likely to create a positive feedback loop back into the Hang Seng Index.Let's now decipher the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of the Hang Seng Index from a technical analysis perspective.Hang Seng Index reached an inflection zone for a potential bullish reversal zoom_out_map Fig. 4: Hong Kong 33 CFD index minor trend as of 22 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 5: Hong Kong 33 CFD index major trend as of 22 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The recent 3.4% decline (high to low) from 16 January 2026 to 20 January 2026 of the Hong Kong 33 CFD index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) is likely to reach an inflection zone to kickstart a potential bullish reversal and potentially transform into an impulsive up move sequence.The price actions of the Hong Kong 33 CFD index have managed to hold at its 20-day moving average, which confluences with the minor ascending channel support from the 16 December 2025 low of 25,087.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout, which suggests a revival of short-term bullish momentum.Watch the 26,330/26,250 short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 26,870 may set sight on the next intermediate resistance at 27,175 before the major resistance comes in at 27,500 (the long-term secular descending trendline from the 29 January 2018 all-time high) (see Fig. 4).On the other hand, failure to hold at 26,250 and an hourly close below it jeopardizes the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate support at 26,045/5,970 (also the 50-day moving average) (see Fig. 5). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 21 Markets just got their latest shot of surprise with Trump's latest comments, backing off on his recent Greenland rhetoric.In a mid-afternoon Truth Social post, the President stated that he will not pursue the purchase of Greenland, having, during the recent tensions and discussions, formed a key arrangement for the Arctic region and Denmark, particularly concerning the Golden Dome. zoom_out_map Trump's latest TACO, January 21, 2026 – Source: Truth Social With tariffs expected to be levied, the Stock Market is bouncing sharply higher, and the risk premium seen in Gold and Platinum is easing.Silver could also be showing signs of a correction, as the parabolic trend stalled despite today's initial risk-off action – keep a very close eye on the commodity, as traders can expect significant volatility there if the asset-specific bubble pops.So nothing happened? Looking at the recent Market movement, it seems like it.Nevertheless, angst will remain as unpredictability from the US President stays extreme.It will be interesting to see how global leaders react to the announcement.Most speeches at the WEF revolved around the New World Order – Traders are just happy to receive their TACO order. Bulls are back strong in today's Stock Market action, and even the struggling Crypto class is rallying.Overall, it's not like things will just go back to the way they were over the past 25 years.Nevertheless, our Rules-Based international system isn't just going to collapse like this, at least as long as the US is still a democracy.Still, there are many reasons to be concerned about the recent geopolitical madness. Let's see how things go and pray for the best. Discover:A New World Order or TACO order? – North American mid-week Market updateMetals correct: Is the uptrend over? Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookStocks pump but doubts remain – Dow Jones and US Stock Index Outlook zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 21, 2026 Most of the Stock Market shined green in today's rebound session.Volatility and uncertainty remain very high, which isn't the best for the Stock Market and Investor sentiment – I don't think that today's rebound will just lead to a one-way ride to new all-time highs, things could still get bumpy.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView With the latest flows suddenly switching, Metals have given back their premium.They now stand at pretty fragile territories, a good moment to check back on our recent Metals piece.Except for Natural Gas which is once again squeezing higher by a huge 30% (!), all other asset classes have mean-reverted from their early week action.Volatility should largely subside except if anything else happens – Keep a close eye on upcoming trading as it should resemble to next week's action, all the way to the January 28 FOMC.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 21, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX Flows are taking a more concrete direction, with the CHF giving back its premium from earlier this week and the AUD & NZD combo elevating once again to new cycle highs.Antipodeans could remain strong for a while, as strong fundamentals and their position on the globe isolates them from the volatile European and American tensions, without even mentioning the Middle East.The US Dollar is now unchanged on the session – Its outlook is going to be confusing, and they will surely remain like this until the FOMC.Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar – January 21, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com There will be high expectations for Intel and Proctor&Gamble.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this Weekend and Monday's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Wednesday’s evening session is loaded with APAC action. Japan releases its full December trade data slate — exports, imports and the trade balance — offering a fresh read on external demand and yen sensitivity. Shortly after, Australia takes centre stage with its December labour market report, where employment, participation and the jobless rate will be key for near-term RBA expectations.Thursday then pivots decisively back to Europe and the US. Early on, Germany’s Buba report and ECB monetary accounts set the euro tone before US markets are hit with a dense macro block: Q3 GDP and price components, jobless claims, and a full run of PCE inflation, income and spending data for October and November. With core PCE at the heart of Fed reaction functions, this cluster has the potential to drive rates and FX into the weekend – Next week will welcome the January FOMC Meeting (Decision on Wednesday 28!)Looking ahead, tomorrow’s evening session could be especially eventful, as the Bank of Japan steps into focus. While any move is far from guaranteed, markets are increasingly alert to the risk of a potential (not-so-surprising) rate hike — a scenario that could boost recent JPY volatility even furtherSafe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East and Greenland developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global tradersUS President Trump creates panic by moving towards acquiring Greenland in his America First policy – EU-US Tensions rise to new highs but Trump de-escalatesThe US Dollar tumbles as the World Economic Forum is happening – Presidents and Prime Ministers make many mentions of a new World Order Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.Have we entered the New World Order?That's the question, which got extensively and intensely covered by Global Leaders in their speeches at the ongoing World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland.President Trump awakened Prime Ministers and Presidents around the world, particularly in the OECD, with his latest threats to acquire Greenland, a "national interest" that has remained so for centuries. (Note: Trump is backing up from his words in the Latest TACO) Read More:Breaking: TACO Time – US President Trump de-escalates regarding Greenland, Stocks explode Having a defense line in the North Pole, anticipating new trade routes as Global Warming continues, and extracting precious materials (Rare earths and more) are decent reasons for the US to entertain such desires.But the issue here is one of sovereignty. zoom_out_map Greenland's Rare Earth Reserves – Source: Visual Capitalist Economists and strategists were already addressing the question as Trump began to lead the polls in September 2024. After the operation in Venezuela, the doors opened wide for outside interventions.The thing is, when it's far from us, it's not such a big deal (Iraq in 2003, Venezuela today). It's particularly the case when OECD interests don't get actively compromised.The bigger issue is when a friend, an ally, or a sovereign territory is threatened. Things change, pacts and promises break, and the situation gets all over the place.The immediate reactions in Markets at the Globex open on Sunday were major down gaps in Equities, the US Dollar, and risk assets. At the same time, Gold kept shining amid the geopolitical turmoil – Note: These flows are now sharply reversing after Trump's comments!This start to 2026 is simply the realization of most of what was feared in 2025.A new world order where polarized geographic powers will dominate is not far off – it's already happening with Russia and China, and now the US could be heading in this direction.Canada's PM, Mark Carney, actually gave a beautiful speech on that aspect, which I strongly encourage you all to listen to – "The Rules-Based Order is fading".America First doesn't mean it's going to be about the Mainland US only, as was said in our past week's Mid-Week Recap.Today, as Trump arrived in Davos, he calmed the tone slightly by saying he won't use force to acquire Greenland, but he still did not back down entirely from his words.TACO or not? Traders are undecided about today's Stock market rebound. zoom_out_map TACO Time, Trump's republished Truth Social Post – Source: X EDIT: As I was about to publish this, the TACO officially got confirmed.Trump is taking out the latest tariffs announced for February 1 through a Truth Social Post, Stocks are exploding higher. zoom_out_map Dow Jones 15M Chart – January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Stocks pump but doubts remain – Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookUS President Trump speaks at the Davos World Economic ForumNorth-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView With the latest TACO, the tone is shifting fast from bearish worries to "actually nothing happened".The ongoing rebound is gigantic and most Stock Indexes have paired their weekly losses that extended all the way to -3% compared to last Wednesday.The rest is to see if the positive sentiment holds as uncertainty still lingers.Dollar Index 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 4H Chart, January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index is showing a sudden rise as Trump backs off from his words.Bouncing from the 200-Period Moving Average, the Dollar is now bouncing against its major FX peers.Imminently going to test the 99.00 Level which will hold as a key indicator, as it also combines with its 50-period MA. Breaking back above should lead to a further rebound in the USD, continuing the upside path it was taking in early 2026.Rejecting indicates further doubts from Market participants regarding the unstable words from the US President.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance LevelsTesting Upper bound of 98.80 Pivot Zone4H 40-period MA 99.00Immediate Resistance 99.25 to 99.50100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone100.376 November highsSupport Levels98.25 Weekly lows98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips)December Lows 97.7597.40 to 97.80 August Range Support2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, January 21, 2026 - Source: TradingView Except for the Pound which got consistently offered throughout the past week following its several dovish data points, it is difficult to see what direction the US Dollar is taking against its major peers.Weakening strongly in this weekly open, the recent switch in tone from the President largely changes the trend – My view is that the Dollar could bounce somewhat before holding rangebound conditions until the situation gets clear.On the other hand, Antipodean currencies (AUD and NZD) really are shining from their externalities to such ongoing developments. As implied by their surnames, they are really far from the tense geopolitical action.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, January 21, 2026 - Source: TradingView. Except against the USD and GBP, weakest currencies among the G7 FX, the CAD is struggling to hold strong.Mark Carney's speech could potentially generate some strength for the Loonie but Canadian data will first have to consistently bounce back.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 4H Chart, January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD corrected strongly throughout the beginning of the week but as Trump comments preceded a decent rebound in the US Dollar, Bulls have appeared at the recent test of the 1.38 Support.If the rally extends above the 50-period 4H MA (1.3876), look for a test of the past week highs (1.3930)My view is one of a more rangebound action between 1.37 to 1.39 for the time being.Any breakout beyond these boundaries will require further analysis.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels4H 50-MA at 1.387650-Day MA and psychological level 1.39Past Week highs 1.39301.40 to 1.4050 Key ResistanceSupport Levels200-Day MA 1.384251.38 Pivotal Support (current bounce)1.3787 Daily LowsMajor Support Zone 1.3650 to 1.37December 26 lows 1.364301.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Stay in touch with the latest geopolitical developments, as things could still get very spicy. Keep a close eyes on the World Economic Forum and their speeches – And don't forget about Iran.I think the latest developments with Greenland could really just be to create diversions from Iran. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US President just shared a Truth Social post announcing that he will cancel tariffs regarding Greenland, announced during yesterday's session.It's official: The Greenland story is yet another TACO. zoom_out_map TACO Time, Trump's republished Truth Social Post – Source: X Stock Markets are rebounding in a hurry to catch up with previous days of losses.It seems that the Air Force One issues and the President's fatigue is making him even more volatile today. zoom_out_map Dow Jones 15M Chart, January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (21/01/2026): In this midweek episode of the Market Insight Podcast, TraderNick and Jonny discuss a more diplomatic approach from Donald Trump regarding Greenland and the associated rise in pricing across global equity and bond markets. Otherwise, we look back on now-infamous’ Liberation Day’ and dissect a higher-than-expected UK CPI reading, putting the Bank of England in an unenviable position. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 20 US traders returned from the Martin Luther King Day holiday to face a rough surprise. EU-US tensions remain elevated, with speeches increasingly referring to a shift toward a New World Disorder. (trademark)The US Dollar, US equity futures, and bonds sold off again, while the Swiss Franc continued to rise, as it did yesterday.These flows are defining the current market landscape and are likely to persist as long as President Trump maintains his aggressive rhetoric. By the way, today is the President’s 1st anniversary of his second term.In a notable divergence from traditional risk-off dynamics, the Japanese Yen continues to see selling pressure as Fiscal pressure builds further after PM Takaichi announced a snap election in February – a hike on Thursday's Bank of Japan meeting becomes more probable by the second.Meanwhile, precious metals are surging, with Gold, Silver, and Platinum all reaching new highs – in contrast, crypto faced harsh rejection, sending Bitcoin down 3.50% to trade below $90,000.Natural Gas also spiked again, rising another 10% in today's session as EU-US tensions can start closing some supply door for the Eurozone.President Trump will land in Davos early tomorrow morning. Expect a flurry of headlines from the conference, with his speech scheduled for 8:30 A.M. Discover:Market Check – Risk-sentiment sours further, Gold (XAU/USD) explodesStocks rebound, is it TACO Tuesday? – Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookThe Swissie wins: CHF demand spikes as traders shun the DollarChart alert: AUD/USD bullish breakout above 0.6720 as “sell America” intensifies zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 20, 2026 The US Stock Market reopened today and things did not look good.The post MLK-Day reopen brought the Nasdaq, once again leading to the downside (-2.19%) and the Dow Jones not holding much better (-1.76%).Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Metals once again lead assets to the upside while everything else dies down.Natural Gas closes higher by 10% as supply fears for Europe (with the Russian door closed and the US supply potentially compromised) drag further.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 20, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Both the JPY and USD are concurring to the downside for the second consecutive session, with flows this time heading right back towards the safe-haven CHF.FX Developments are promised to remain volatile for the time being so keep a close eye!A look at Economic data releasing throughout this Weekend and Monday's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Wednesday is packed and inflation-heavy, with the UK taking centre stage early.December CPI, a full slate of price indicators (PPI and RPI) will be decisive for rate expectations, especially after today's beat in labour data.Any upside surprise would reinforce a cautious BoE stance, while softer prints could revive easing bets.The World Economic Forum reserves multiple speeches from Lagarde, Escrivá, Villeroy and Nagel as the conference keeps going in Davos.President Trump’s will also have an address at the WEF as he lands in Switzerland tonight. Tomorrow's speech is expected at 08:30 A.M ET.Late in the session, Asia-Pacific data takes over, with Japan’s trade figures ahead of Thursday's Bank of Japan (high importance with the gigantic moves in the JPY) and Australia’s labour report likely to drive FX volatility, especially AUD crosses, given expectations for job gains and a steady unemployment rate.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East and Greenland developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

EU–US tensions are worsening, with the EU now pushing to suspend the tariff deal agreed upon in July, further clouding the political atmosphere.US President Trump is currently addressing the public to celebrate “365 Days, 365 Wins,” highlighting what he frames as his key achievements over the past year as he marks the first anniversary of his second term.He is, unsurprisingly, showcasing the strongest anecdotes from his perspective. However, such addresses are unlikely to sit well with several EU leaders, especially amid growing pushback against the President’s recent rhetoric regarding Greenland.The FX pair to watch to monitor how serious current discussions get is USD/CHF, situated at the perfect intercept between European issues, safe-haven demand and dedollarization trends – Down 1.90% since Friday! zoom_out_map USD/CHF 2H Chart – January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Get access to our latest analysis of the currency pair right here! While this morning’s appearance by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent briefly eased the tone — urging everyone to “take a deep breath and let things play out” — markets did not take comfort for long. Read More: Stocks rebound, is it TACO Tuesday? – Dow Jones and US Stock Index Outlook Gold had already gapped higher in yesterday’s session and continued to extend gains as US traders returned from the Martin Luther King Day holiday, now pushing toward $4,760. Silver and other metals are following suit, printing fresh highs. zoom_out_map XAU/USD (Gold) 2H Chart – January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView zoom_out_map A look at the daily performance in Commodities, January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView. XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium Equities, on the other hand, tell a very different story. Stock indices bounced early in the session but topped quickly and failed to recover. The Dow Jones is now down 1.80%, while both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are lower by around 2%. The key question now shifts to US Treasuries, which are facing renewed selling pressure as European banks and funds consider further diversification away from the US dollar. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 2H Chart, January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The weaponization of foreign-owned assets has set a precedent — as seen with Russian assets in Europe and the US — and remains a growing concern for investors as Global leaders call out the New World Order and the World Economy Conference is ongoing.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.