Headlines:Dollar nudges lower on the day amid mixed market moodBitcoin loses key $64,000 level: The important support levels BTC must hold nextBOJ reportedly set for a September rate hike, eyes faster pace of tighteningGerman wholesale prices bounce back in July as energy tax cut lapsesFrench inflation accelerates again in July, core prices move up as wellSwiss economy estimated to post quarterly growth of 1.5% in the second quarterChina new bank loans contract again in July, the second time this yearMarkets:WTI crude oil up 0.5% to $81.64NZD leads, USD lags on the dayGold up 0.3% to $4,362S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%US 10-year yields up 0.3 bps to 4.645%Bitcoin down 0.8% to $62,829There's not all too much in it as we get into the final stretch of the week.The market mood is fairly mixed, with the dollar sitting lower while oil prices and bond yields are just a touch higher on the day.There are no fresh developments on the US-Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz still in de facto closure after Iran threatened more ships again - this time being UAE oil vessels.WTI crude sits higher by 0.5% to $81.64 and looks poised to end the week with gains well over 5%. Meanwhile, bond yields also nudged a little higher early on but is now moving back down a little. 10-year yields in the US are little changed now at 4.645% with the earlier high touching 4.665%.Even so, the dollar is seen being offered in European morning trade. It was one-way traffic with the greenback losing ground across the board. EUR/USD is up 0.3% to 1.1567 in retesting the 100-day moving average once again. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is down 0.2% to close in on the 159.00 mark on the day.In other markets, European indices are lightly changed for the most part while US futures are holding a marginal advance on the day. There's not a whole lot in it but Wall Street will be hoping to follow up from the record close in the S&P 500 yesterday.Besides that, gold is up 0.3% to $4,362 after erasing early losses with the fall back earlier touching a low of $4,311. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

After the joint intervention from Japan and the US, the yen currency has been a key focus again in recent weeks. And that just amplifies all the scrutiny on the upcoming BOJ policy decision, with some speculation that the joint intervention included some promise on Japan's end to push for higher interest rates.While a more hawkish BOJ may be a driving factor to potentially help defend the yen, is it going to be what turns the tide? The yen has been heavily punished amid a multitude of factors since late last year already. And here's a good reminder as to why those factors will continue to pressure the currency, besides the ongoing US-Iran conflict.1. Japan's fiscal situation remains fragileThis is the whole premise of the Takaichi trade that has been running since October last year. Her appointment has only heightened worries about Japan's fiscal predicament and that has not gone away.The country's debt-to-GDP ratio remains well above 200% and continues to rank as the highest among all major advanced and big economies. As such, they can't really withstand an aggressive tightening cycle especially. And so, the BOJ has a very fine line to maneuver in this case.That as higher interest rates will immediately balloon the Japanese government’s cost of servicing its massive national debt. That means no matter how much the BOJ wants to talk about raising interest rates, the "terminal rate" is arguably much lower than other major economies like the US and/or Europe.So, that does knock down some credibility of any aggressive tightening that could structurally underpin the yen currency in the big picture.2. Japan's real interest rates are still a problemAnother troubling spot is that real interest rates in Japan are still very much negative at this juncture. Even with the BOJ policy rate at 1% or potentially being driven to 1.50% moving forward, that is still holding below underlying inflation - in which the central bank argues is close to 2% currently.It's still a key as to why the yen continues to struggle against all odds, even with the recent resurgence in Japanese bond yields.Currency traders don't only trade on nominal yields/rates but also on real rates. So unless the BOJ does intend to take a very bold step to change the dynamics of the landscape, then it's safe to say that this is one spot that will stick for quite some time.Even if we are seeing some narrowing in rate differentials in the past two years, especially in the bond market, the rates argument is still very much in favour of the US. Hence, the carry trade math is still working - albeit less effective.But then again, it's best to remember that Japan's bond yields are not only rising because of the inflation/BOJ outlook. It is also largely to do with rising risks on the fiscal side of things and therein lies another set of risks for traders and investors in going in search of Japanese assets.3. BOJ has to deliver something that will truly surprise marketsAt this stage, traders are already expecting at least one rate hike by the BOJ by year-end. And looking to June 2027, traders are also pricing in ~72 bps of rate hikes by the BOJ already. That translates to three more hikes between now and the middle of next year.The remaining one priced in for this year fits with the current pace set by the BOJ i.e. moving roughly once every half year. And the two for the first half of next year basically means a slight step up in that pace.So even if the BOJ feels more bold, they have to deliver at least three rate hikes in the four meetings in 1H 2027 to really signal that they mean business. Otherwise, anything short of that will just fit with what markets have already priced in at best. And at worst, a more timid approach (as they are known for) will just put more pressure on the yen currency instead. That is should they walk back from any further aggressive signaling approach that we are seeing in recent weeks.In short, the onus and the pressure is on the BOJ to keep a more hawkish rhetoric and deliver something that will echo stronger across broader markets.Otherwise, currency traders have very much priced in what is to be expected above and it will take a lot more to really convince market players of any sustained reversal momentum in the yen trajectory.The only real hope now for the yen and the BOJ is that all this tough talk and narrative will eventually buy enough time for the US-Iran conflict to die down and turn into less of a headwind for the Japanese economy. Let's just say that has already been their game plan for at least five months, yet here we are and still no closer to the end of the war. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Well, it's starting to look like a feature and not a bug anymore. The latest credit data for the month of July sees China new bank loans fall into contraction again, shrinking by ¥340 billion. That is a miss on expectations, which were expecting lending to increase by ¥45 billion instead.That is a rather disappointing estimate and sees new yuan loans from January to July total to just ¥10.38 trillion. That is a marked fall compared to the ¥12.88 trillion total from January to July last year.This marks back-to-back July months now that China new bank loans have contracted. While it may be tied to some seasonal factors, weak household credit demand cannot be understated in being a drag on lending in the Chinese economy.Once again, data like this will just continue to cast doubts over the resilience of the Chinese economy despite the fact that top-level data continues to indicate that "everything is fine".While the property market crisis did lead to some slowdown in credit demand, the collapse in short-term borrowing by households is definitely starting to be more pronounced in recent months. So, this will be something to look out for if it continues as it does as seen above. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Q2 GDP second estimate +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q prelimPrior (Q1) +0.1%; revised to 0.0%There is no change to the preliminary estimate but there is a minor downgrade to the Q1 GDP estimate on the quarter, which is now seen flat instead of posting a marginal growth.Compared to the same quarter last year, euro area GDP in Q2 2026 is seen growing by 1.0% at least.In any case, this is very much a lagging data point by now. That as markets are turning their attention to renewed tensions in the Middle East, which is underpinning inflation risks. And that is likely to pressure the ECB into needing to act faster.Carry on as you will. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The dollar is trading on the softer side in European morning trade, nudging lower despite an absence of any major catalysts. The dollar drop comes amid a mixed mood in broader markets, so that's not giving a consistent look in the final stretch of the week.USD/JPY is down 0.2% to 159.13 currently but still keeping thereabouts and poised to end the week above the 159.00 level and around 0.8% higher. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is trading up 0.2% to 1.1553 and is now flat on the week. The currency pair continues to hold near the 100-day moving average (red line) but keeps below that with buyers not finding the right trigger for a technical break.[EUR/USD daily chart]Besides that, GBP/USD is up 0.3% to 1.3520 and AUD/USD up 0.2% to 0.7070 on the day as high beta currencies look to at least close the week just a touch higher against the dollar. It's not much but it points to some mixed moves among major currencies on the week. That as the US CPI report on Wednesday failed to really give any firm convictions to traders.And it's not just in the major currencies space. Today, we're seeing oil prices move back up with WTI crude up 1.2% to $82.25 and 10-year yields in the US up 2 bps to 4.66%. Despite the latter, the dollar is the one moving down today so it is definitely pointing to some mixed signals in ending the week.As for the equities space, we are seeing European indices hold more mixed today while US futures are looking rather tepid. That follows from the more positive showing in Wall Street yesterday, after the S&P 500 posted a record close. S&P 500 futures are only up 0.1% today with Nasdaq futures up 0.2%, though it is still early in the day. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Switzerland Q2 flash GDP +1.5% q/qPrior (Q1) +0.4%This is only the provisional estimate and may be revised after when the more detailed report is released, after around another 60 days. As such, there's not all too much detailed information on this one.The Swiss statistics office did note that:"The industrial sector made the largest contribution to growth, which was driven in particular by the chemical and pharmaceutical industry. The services sector also grew as a whole."In that lieu, it means that much of this "growth" is driven by a surge in chemical and pharmaceutical exports - especially to the US.Mind you, Swiss foreign trade saw a material rebound in Q2 as exports were seen up 8.8%. Exports to the US in particular were up 21.5% amid further tariffs threat to the pharmeceutical sector in April. So, the "growth" in both exports and trade (in turn GDP) seems to be driven by another round of frontloading to avoid a potential backlash from the tariffs threat before that was dropped in July. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

July final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelimPrior +1.8%July final HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelimPrior +2.0%French headline annual inflation is confirmed at 2.1% in July, amid a renewed increase in price pressures all around. Core annual inflation is also seen accelerating again, moving up to 1.3% in July - up from 1.0% in June.The headline estimate is exacerbated by a jump in energy price inflation again, which is up to 12.6% in July. That comes after the 11.0% estimate in June, which is still on the high side. The major bump in July owes much to a sharp move higher in gas prices (+17.7%) compared to the estimate in June (+10.4%).Meanwhile, services inflation is also seen increasing to 2.2% in July - up from 1.9% in the month before. Food price inflation also sees a minor increase to 1.0% in July - up from 0.9% in the month before.But all in all, it's still the more sticky figure in services inflation that is driving up core prices. And that will keep the ECB watchful especially if the trend keeps this way after the summer. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1550 level. The expiries here don't tie to any technical significance but may just offer a bit of a pull factor in keeping price action more limited in the session ahead.The currency pair remains locked below the 100-day moving average at 1.1566 currently. So, that remains the key technical ceiling that is keeping a lid on price action. As such, it would require a catalyst of sorts to really produce any notable price movements before we end the week.US-Iran developments continue to be in limbo and USD/JPY is not exactly threatening the 160 mark, so that is not seeing much danger for any added intervention play just yet. That being said, the latter is still a potential threat and could be a temporary drag for the dollar at any time. So, just be wary of that.Otherwise, there's not all too much in expecting any impact from the expiries above on price action today.Traders will mostly be left to their own devices in trying to figure out dollar sentiment, which is the stronger influence still for the time being.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

July wholesale prices +0.2% m/mPrior -0.7%July wholesale prices +5.3% y/yPrior +4.9%German wholesale prices nudged up in July, owing much to another bump in the price of petroleum products. The expiration of the temporary reduction in the energy tax rate on gasoline and diesel (which lapsed after 30 June) helped to see their price move up by 4.0% on the month. And relative to a year ago, the price of petroleum products are on average over 24% higher compared to July 2025.Besides that, prices of non-ferrous ores, metals, and semi-finished metal products dropped by 3.9% on the month but are still well higher compared to the same month last year (+27.8%).Meanwhile, the other increase in July was prices for information and communication technology equipment (+1.1% on the month). The category here is also seeing a marked increase compared to July last year (+9.0%), so that further amplifies the year-on-year estimate seen above.All in all, it just points to German wholesale prices continuing to nudge higher as a result of the US-Iran conflict. And not just in energy, even if that still represents the biggest chunk of the increase compared to how prices were trending a year ago. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The report says that the BOJ is eyeing to raise interest rates as soon as the September meeting next month and could even consider hiking more aggressively thereafter. The thinking is that the Japanese central bank would want to move from its current pace of hiking roughly twice a year to a much faster one.The sources noted that "an early rate hike has come into sight", adding that the BOJ "could also accelerate the pace of rate increases".They also note that with underlying inflation nearing the 2% target, the BOJ must start to be more sensitive towards the upside risks to prices. Adding that given the current context, the BOJ may not want to wait too long before delivering the next rate hike.Well, I don't think the report is saying much of what we don't already know about the BOJ. As things stand, market pricing is seeing the odds of a rate hike in September at ~61%. But for this year, traders are definitely seeing at least one more rate hike before we move to 2027 next. And there's only three more meetings for the BOJ to deliver that i.e. September, October, December.As for the supposed "quicker pace" of tightening, it's tough to imagine the BOJ being that bold after having been so timid for so many years now. They could've dug themselves out of this hole many a time but refused to move in months where they could have and instead opted to "play it safe" by waiting on more data to justify their conviction.Just looking back to the past year, we can already see two instances of that.One was when Takaichi took up the post as prime minister, and the BOJ could have made their move in September or October. Instead, they waited and had to then move in December.The other was in wanting to wait for the official outcome of the spring wage negotiations. And that was just bad or unlucky timing considering the US-Iran conflict. But still, they could've moved in January or March if they were bold enough to do so. Instead, they waited until June before deciding on that - which was very much delayed.The only plausible reason I can imagine the BOJ having to move quicker on rates, is that there is a discreet promise between the US and Japan on the latest joint intervention. That being the US offering up help to defend the yen currency but Japan also has to play ball in getting the BOJ to raise interest rates at a faster pace.So, there's that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

This builds from the technical position from yesterday here: Gold fails to find that additional spark from US inflation dataAs mentioned then, one of the potential plays for gold was:"With price action stalling in the past few days, the buying momentum is starting to run out of oomph. If we do see a break back below the 100-hour moving average (red line), that could signal further downside to around $4,325 with plenty of scope for a further retreat amid a lack of other buying catalysts for the time being. In short, buyers are still looking poised but have to do more before they run out of steam and lose some near-term control - which could lead to a bit of a retreat in the latter stages this week."That seems to taking shape with the drop now taking gold to test the 10 August lows $4,313-20 region. But in the bigger picture, the break below the 100-hour moving average (red line) is the most crucial thing. That now sees the near-term bias switch from being more bullish to more neutral instead.[Gold (XAU/USD) hourly chart]So, what's next for the precious metal?Buyers have had a good run last week to break back above $4,200 on a technical break. However, the buying momentum looks to stall amid a lack of further positive developments from the US-Iran conflict as well as sellers defending the 100-day moving average.That now sees some near-term exhaustion creep in as seen with the hourly chart above.While there is some minor support in the $4,310-25 level, I wouldn't pin that as being a key technical chokehold for gold prices looking to the end of this week and also for next week.The battle now turns to whether gold will push back to retest its 100-hour moving average (red line) or fall to test further downside at the 200-hour moving average (blue line) instead.A push back to the upside and break will invite another test of the 100-day moving average, seen at $4,386 currently.Meanwhile, a renewed downside test and break of the 200-hour moving average leaves plenty of room for gold to track back towards $4,200-25. And on a break of that, we could see a quick return towards $4,000 next. That should US-Iran developments keep as it is and underpin a more hawkish outlook for the Fed i.e. higher yields. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In my previous Bitcoin analysis, I showed that the assigned score of -4 (which means moderately bearish), and the bears are indeed still proving to be stronger than the bulls as Bitcoin continues struggling to reclaim ground below $64,000. Looking at the broader macro backdrop, we could see an increase in risk-off sentiment soon following news that Trump ordered new tariffs up to 100% on drone imports citing national security. However, the AI trade remains a persistent tailwind for equity markets, driven by ongoing optimism as OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate surpassed $40 billion according to recent reports (gotta admit, that's impressive, and the AI trade may still have some fuel).Now let's jump into the crypto king who seems a lttile tired at this stage of the tired summer. Still, as always, the important point is to know the key price levels on the trading map, and be ready if price activates an opinion to buy or sell. So check out the fillowing key price levels both in the Bitcoin futures and the spot chart.Bitcoin Price Analysis Today: BTC Breaks Below Value as Sellers Regain ControlBitcoin is trading around $63,350-$63,400, with the short-term structure turning more bearish. Bitcoin futures have broken below their developing value area, while the daily BTCUSD spot chart is slipping beneath its rising pitchfork channel and remains below the important $64,000 value pivot. Buyers now have some technical repair work to do.Key takeaways for Bitcoin traders todayShort-term bias: Bearish while BTC remains below the broken value area.Futures bearish threshold: Below $63,300 strengthens the downside continuation scenario.Futures bullish threshold: Buyers need to reclaim approximately $63,725 for a more credible recovery.Spot Bitcoin: The daily chart is losing the lower boundary of its rising pitchfork and remains below the important $64,000 area.Major downside test:$62,865-$62,900, where buyers previously reacted aggressively.What does the Bitcoin spot chart show today?My daily BTCUSD chart below adds an important bigger-picture warning to the shorter-term futures analysis.Bitcoin's rebound from the early-August low created a rising pitchfork channel. Think of the pitchfork as a way of mapping the path that an orderly trend might follow. Its parallel lines can act as dynamic support and resistance as price travels through time.For several sessions, Bitcoin stayed inside that rising structure. Now price is starting to cross beneath its lower boundary. Bulls still need a $64k reclaim (they may or may not get it).That matters because a bullish channel only remains useful while buyers continue defending it. Once price starts trading below the lower rail, the market is effectively saying that the previous rate of ascent may no longer be sustainable.What this means: Breaking a rising pitchfork does not automatically mean Bitcoin must collapse. It means the short-term bullish trajectory has weakened, and buyers need to prove themselves again.That is why I am watching $64,000 closely.The spot chart also contains a volume profile covering the broader trading range. The important nuance is that Bitcoin is now below the range's central high-volume reference, or point of control, near the $64,000 region.It has not yet broken beneath the entire broader value area, with deeper value support still considerably lower. But trading below the main value pivot tells us that the market is spending time on the weaker side of the range.Combine that with the pitchfork break, and the burden of proof has shifted back toward the buyers.What is a Bitcoin value area, and why does losing it matter?A value area shows where a large proportion of trading activity took place during a selected period.Instead of looking only at whether Bitcoin moved up or down, volume profile asks another useful question:At what prices did the market actually do the most business?Those areas can become important because buyers and sellers have previously demonstrated that they were comfortable transacting there.The point of control, or POC, is the individual price area where the greatest amount of volume traded.When Bitcoin is above an important value area and holding there, buyers may have greater control. When price moves beneath it and cannot recover, the market can start searching for lower prices where buyers are willing to become active again.That is essentially what is happening on the shorter-term Bitcoin futures chart now.Why are Bitcoin futures looking weaker?Bitcoin futures attempted another recovery following the August 13 selloff.Price initially recovered toward $64,100, then dropped sharply toward $62,865. Buyers responded from that low and pushed BTC back above $63,500, but the recovery failed to rebuild a stronger bullish structure.During the new session, futures reached approximately $63,715 and then spent several hours rotating around a narrow developing value area.The key references were approximately:The latest downside move pushed futures beneath developing value and below the session's main high-volume area.That is a meaningful change.Instead of buyers accepting progressively higher prices, the market is now moving away from value on the downside.What would make Bitcoin more bullish again?The investingLive tradeCompass bullish threshold is $63,725 on the futures map.That level sits just beyond the recent overnight high and the upper developing value area.A move above it would therefore mean more than Bitcoin simply bouncing $100 or $200. Buyers would be reclaiming the area where the latest balance developed and breaking through the recent sequence of weaker intraday highs.If Bitcoin accepts above $63,725, the upside areas to watch are:$63,875$63,955-$64,040around $64,200The most important zone is approximately $63,950-$64,050.That region matters on both charts.On futures, it contains previous value and resistance. On the daily spot chart, it also brings Bitcoin back toward the key $64,000 value pivot and toward the broken rising-channel structure.In other words, reclaiming $64,000 would begin to repair several pieces of technical damage at the same time.A brief touch is not enough, however.What this means: Acceptance means price gets above an important level, spends time there, and shows that buyers can defend it. A five-minute spike above resistance followed by an immediate reversal is very different from genuine acceptance.What would strengthen the bearish Bitcoin scenario?The bearish tradeCompass threshold remains approximately $63,300.A sustained move below this area would confirm that Bitcoin is not simply probing beneath developing value but is actually accepting lower prices.The bearish reaction zones are:$63,195$63,105-$63,120$62,865-$62,900around $62,650 if the recent low fails decisivelyThe $62,865-$62,900 area deserves special attention.Bitcoin already produced a strong reaction from this region. Traders should therefore not assume that revisiting the level guarantees another immediate breakdown.Previous lows can attract both profit-taking from shorts and fresh buying interest.For that reason, chasing bearish moves directly into established support can offer much less attractive risk-reward than waiting for either a clearer breakdown or a failed rebound into previously broken value.The Bitcoin tradeCompass mapHow can traders combine the spot and futures charts?This is where looking at more than one timeframe becomes useful.The futures chart is giving the faster tactical message: BTC has broken below developing value.The daily spot chart is giving the broader structural warning: Bitcoin is below the main $64,000 value pivot and is slipping beneath its rising pitchfork.When two different views point in the same direction, the message deserves more attention.That does not guarantee lower prices. It simply raises the standard buyers must meet before the market can reasonably be described as repaired.For me, the picture becomes considerably more constructive if Bitcoin futures reclaim $63,725 and spot BTC subsequently recovers and holds approximately $64,000.Until then, rallies deserve some skepticism.This analysis uses Bitcoin futures for the detailed tradeCompass thresholds and BTCUSD spot for the broader daily-chart structure. Futures, perpetual contracts, and spot Bitcoin can trade at slightly different prices, so traders should map the analysis to the instrument they actually trade.How traders can manage the Bitcoin mapThe tradeCompass is designed as a decision map, rather than a prediction that traders must follow.If a bearish scenario activates, traders can consider taking partial profits as major support areas are approached rather than assuming every target must be reached.Likewise, if Bitcoin reverses and activates the bullish map, resistance around $64,000 should be treated as an important test rather than assuming that one breakout candle means the entire bearish structure has disappeared.After a first target is reached, and certainly after a second target, traders may consider reducing risk, tightening the stop, or moving it closer to entry depending on their own execution approach.The objective is to avoid allowing a trade that has already moved favorably to return all the way to its original risk unnecessarily.How to know if this Bitcoin analysis is still validBecause Bitcoin trades 24 hours a day, this map can become stale quickly.A simple way to check whether the analysis still matters is to compare current price with its main thresholds:If BTC remains below $63,300, the bearish continuation scenario is active.If price is between roughly $63,300 and $63,725, Bitcoin is back inside the decision zone.If futures have accepted above $63,725, the immediate bearish structure is repairing.If spot Bitcoin has also reclaimed and held $64,000, the larger chart becomes meaningfully less bearish.If price has already travelled through several published targets, do not treat the original map as a fresh entry signal.The levels can still help explain where the market has travelled and where traders may reassess an existing position, but the article should not be treated as permanently current.For more context on bullish and bearish thresholds, confirmation, partial-profit targets, and decision zones, read the investingLive guide to using a tradeCompass market map.Chart caption: Bitcoin's daily BTCUSD chart shows price slipping beneath the rising pitchfork while remaining below the important $64,000 value pivot.Suggested alt text: Bitcoin BTCUSD daily chart showing price below the $64,000 volume-profile pivot and breaking beneath a rising pitchfork channel.Trade at your own risk. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Trump orders more tariffs, this time up to 100% on drone imports. Cites security.Follow-up: Latvia shoots down drone hours after issuing air threat alertEUR risk: Latvia issues air threat alert, Finland restricts Gulf of Finland trafficPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7878 (vs. estimate at 6.7413)Franklin Templeton stays bullish on stocks, leans into AI and USYen intervention could come again at any yen level, ex-official FurusawaUBS sees more room to run for stocks, favours broader global exposureOpenAI's annualized revenue run rate has surpassed $40 billion says a Bloomberg reportICYMI - Barkin says rate path unclear as sticky inflation meets resilient economyNZ manufacturing growth cools to 54.3 in July after June's surgeFed's Goolsbee says inflation data improving, hopes tariff effects fadeReddit to join S&P 500 index, Shares have jumped higher in after hours trade.ICYMI - Hawkish Fed's Hammack says acting now on inflation is really criticalOil settles down circa 2% on weak demand outlook and hefty US crude buildSEC abruptly pulls Friday crypto rules meeting, cites scheduling issueFitch affirms US at AA+, keeps outlook stable amid growth slowdownUAE's Adnoc says two of its vessels attacked in HormuzIts the 'what'd I miss?' post! Oil falls despite Hormuz chaos, S&P 500 record highinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: S&P 500 hits a fresh recordSummary:Oil ticked higher after the US threatened an indefinite naval blockade of Iran on Thursday, and Treasury Secretary Bessent flagged unprecedented new economic measures against Tehran for next weekADNOC confirmed two of its vessels were struck while transiting the Strait of HormuzGold slipped, dipping under 4,320 dollars at one stageChicago Fed's Goolsbee struck a more upbeat inflation tone than Hammack and Barkin, saying recent data has been a little better and hoping tariff and oil driven pressures prove temporaryUSD got a small pop on Latvia's air threat alert and Finland's Gulf of Finland restriction, before easing back to end the session lowerFurusawa reiterated the yen is too weak and that fresh Japan-US intervention is possible at any time; USD/JPY dribbled back under 159.40Reddit shares jumped over 8.5% after hours on confirmation of its S&P 500 inclusion, effective August 18Australia's Albanese and Trump held a call in which Trump agreed to consider reversing the 12.5% tariff on Australian exports Oil prices edged higher during the Asian session on Friday after the United States threatened an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, reviving supply concerns a day after crude fell on a weaker demand outlook and a large build in US inventories. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Newsmax's "Rob Schmitt Tonight" program the administration would soon unveil what he described as unprecedented economic measures against Tehran, saying the approach would combine historic economic isolation with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, ADNOC confirmed two of its vessels were struck while transiting the strait, part of a mounting toll on shipping through the waterway since the war began.Gold moved in the opposite direction, slipping to under 4,320 dollars an ounce at one stage during the session.On the Fed, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee offered a more optimistic read than his colleagues Beth Hammack and Tom Barkin earlier in the day, saying in a Fox News interview that recent inflation data has been a little better and that he is hopeful the trend continues. Goolsbee attributed much of the current inflation to tariffs and higher oil prices tied to the Iran war, both of which he had hoped would prove one-off increases, and said working through those pressures could put the economy back on what he called a golden path toward the Fed's 2% target.The US dollar saw a brief pop after Latvia issued an air threat alert and Finland imposed a temporary restriction on aviation and maritime traffic in the eastern Gulf of Finland within minutes of each other. Speculation centred on whether the incidents involved drones tied to Russia's war in Ukraine that had drifted off course, or represented a further example of Russian harassment of NATO's eastern neighbours. The dollar ultimately gave back that gain and finished the session lower.In FX, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, Japan's former top currency diplomat, told Reuters the yen remains clearly too weak at current levels and is hurting the economy through higher import costs, adding that Japan and the US could conduct joint intervention again at any time rather than at a fixed level. USD/JPY dribbled back under 159.40 during the session.Elsewhere, Reddit shares jumped more than 8.5% in after-hours trade after S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed the platform will join the S&P 500 before markets open on August 18.In Australia, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke with President Trump, with Trump agreeing to consider reversing the 12.5% tariff currently applied to Australian exports. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The tiered structure here matters more than the headline rate: a 100% tariff on militarily sensitive drones and components targets China directly given its dominance in that segment, while the lower 15% and 10% rates carved out for the EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the UK function as a soft incentive for allied supply chains rather than a blanket trade barrier. Combined with the onshoring authorisation for Commerce and the parallel shipbuilding memorandum, this reads as part of a broader push to rebuild US defense-adjacent manufacturing capacity, a theme likely to keep showing up alongside the administration's tariff and industrial policy agenda through the rest of the year. Watch defense contractors and drone makers with US manufacturing exposure, along with any retaliatory signals from China given its central role in global drone component supply.--- Washington is treating drones the way it once treated steel, a national security problem to be solved with tariffs and onshoring.Summary:Trump signed a proclamation Thursday imposing tiered tariffs on imported drones and components, citing a national security threat and the need to rapidly expand US drone productionLarger drones with militarily sensitive capabilities, such as thermal imaging, and certain critical components face a 100% ad valorem tariff; smaller, less sensitive drones and components face a 25% levyA 15% tariff applies to drones from the EU, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan, and a 10% tariff applies to UK drones, provided substantially all hardware, software and technology originate from those countries or the USThe proclamation authorises the Commerce Secretary to establish an onshoring program for companies investing in new US drone manufacturing capacityThe White House said the move follows earlier reporting in May that the administration was pursuing funding deals with drone companies to boost domestic production and cut costsTariffs on sensitive drones and components take effect 21 days after signing, while duties on less sensitive components phase in after 180 days President Trump has announced a tiered set of tariffs on imported drones and drone components, framing the move as a response to a national security threat and a bid to rapidly expand US drone manufacturing capacity. In a statement, the White House said the drone tariff program is designed to protect the security of the United States and its defense and defense-adjacent industrial base while creating jobs, adding that domestic drone production needs to scale up quickly to safeguard national and economic security.Under the proclamation, signed Thursday, duties are structured according to both the capability of the drone and its country of origin. Larger drones equipped with militarily sensitive features, such as thermal imaging, along with certain critical components, face a 100% ad valorem tariff. Smaller drones and components without the same national security implications face a lower 25% levy.Allied nations received preferential treatment within that framework. Drones originating from the European Union, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan face a 15% tariff, while UK-made drones face a 10% duty, conditional on substantially all hardware, software and technology originating within those countries and the United States. That structure effectively channels the heaviest tariff burden toward non-allied suppliers, chiefly China, which dominates global drone and component manufacturing, while offering allied and partner nations a materially lower rate.The proclamation also authorises the Secretary of Commerce to establish an onshoring program supporting companies that invest in new US drone and component manufacturing, consistent with the administration's broader push to strengthen national defense industries. The move follows earlier reporting by the Wall Street Journal in May, which said the administration was pursuing funding deals with a group of drone companies as part of an effort to boost domestic production and bring down the cost of what has become an increasingly vital category of weapon.The drone tariffs targeting militarily sensitive products take effect 21 days after the proclamation's signing, while duties on less sensitive components have a longer runway, phasing in after 180 days. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This confirms the escalation we flagged as a live possibility in our earlier piece, this wasn't a stray drone drifting off course, it required a NATO air defence mission to physically shoot it down over Latvian territory, a more serious outcome than the alert-and-clear pattern that has repeated through 2026. Combined with 15 drones downed near Russia's own Leningrad border region and reports that NATO's northern members are actively hardening dams, power plants and gas infrastructure against a possible false flag attack, the story has moved from routine border friction toward something closer to sustained low-level harassment. Not yet a market moving event on its own, but worth tracking closely alongside European defence names and any broader NATO response.--- What started as a precautionary alert became an actual intercept, and Russia's northern neighbours are now hardening infrastructure against the next one.Summary:NATO fighter jets on an air defence mission shot down a drone that entered Latvian airspace early Friday, according to ReutersLatvia lifted its air threat alert for regions near Russia following the intercept, with no immediate details provided on the drone's originFinland separately restricted areas of the eastern Gulf of Finland for aviation and maritime traffic as a precaution against possible drones, its defence forces saidOvernight, Russia shot down 15 drones over its own Leningrad region near the Finnish and Estonian border, home to St Petersburg, regional governor Alexander Drozdenko said on TelegramReuters reports that Russia's northern NATO neighbours are tightening security around dams, power plants and gas infrastructure amid concern Moscow could stage a false flag attack using Ukrainian drones Fighter jets on a NATO air defence mission shot down a drone that entered Latvian airspace early Friday, Latvia's armed forces said on X, a more serious escalation than the alert issued in the same border regions the previous evening, which had been lifted without incident at the time. Latvia's armed forces said the air threat alert for regions close to Russia was lifted following the intercept, though they did not immediately provide details on the drone's origin.Finland, which also shares a border with Russia, separately imposed temporary restrictions on aviation and maritime traffic in the eastern Gulf of Finland as a precautionary measure against possible drones, its defence forces said on X. The restriction echoes similar measures Finland has imposed repeatedly through 2026 in the same corridor near Kotka, though this is the first time in recent memory that a parallel Latvian alert has escalated into an actual shootdown on the same night.Reuters noted that countries neighbouring Russia and Ukraine issue air threat alerts and down drones from time to time as Moscow and Kyiv continue to exchange attacks following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Overnight, Russia itself shot down 15 drones over its Leningrad region, close to the Finnish and Estonian border and home to St Petersburg, Russia's second biggest city and a major export hub, regional governor Alexander Drozdenko said on Telegram early Friday.Reuters also reported that Russia's northern NATO neighbours are tightening security around dams, power plants and natural gas infrastructure, a sign of mounting concern that Moscow could stage a so-called false flag attack on that infrastructure using Ukrainian drones. Taken together, Friday's developments mark a step up from the alert-and-clear pattern that has characterised most Baltic and Nordic drone incidents so far this year, with an actual intercept over Latvian territory, a fresh Finnish restriction, and a large-scale Russian intercept operation near its own northern border all landing within the same 24 hour window. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The scale of this shift is the story: China's exports have gone from under 600,000 vehicles in 2019 to a forecast of up to 10 million this year, and shipping capacity simply hasn't kept pace despite a 40 percent expansion in the global car-carrier fleet. Charter rates have nearly doubled since late last year, a dynamic worth watching for margin pressure on Chinese automakers already competing fiercely at home, and for read-through to broader dry bulk and container shipping names benefiting from the overflow demand. The domestic angle matters too, with Chinese car sales down over 20 percent in the first half of the year, export capacity is functioning as a pressure valve for oversupply, reinforcing China's ongoing demand destruction story that's already showing up in oil and commodity markets this week.--- China has gone from a minor car exporter to the world's largest in five years, and the shipping industry still hasn't caught up.Summary:China could export up to 10 million vehicles this year, up from just under 600,000 in 2019, according to research group Mobility Global, per the Wall Street Journal (gated)Car-carrier charter rates are up 65% this year, with average annual rates hitting $70,000 a day in June, up from $42,500 at the end of last year, according to shipbroker ClarksonsThe global car-carrier fleet has grown roughly 40% but still cannot meet demand, according to Wallenius Wilhelmsen chief executive Lasse KristoffersenSome automakers are shipping cars in standard containers rather than specialised car carriers, with up to four million vehicles a year now moved this way, according to KristoffersenChina's SAIC Motor and BYD posted strong EU registration growth in the first half of 2026 while Western legacy brands like Stellantis, Volkswagen and Renault largely stagnated, according to European Automobile Manufacturers' Association dataChinese car sales at home fell more than 20% in the first half of 2026, per International Energy Agency data cited by the WSJ, with exports acting as a pressure release valve for domestic oversupply China's auto factories are producing so many vehicles for export that the global shipping industry cannot keep up, according to the Wall Street Journal, with specialised car-carrier vessels booked years in advance and charter rates up 65% this year.The scale of the shift is stark. China exported just under 600,000 cars and vans in 2019; Mobility Global now forecasts the country could ship up to 10 million vehicles this year. That surge is being driven by fierce competition among more than 100 domestic auto brands, industry overproduction and a sluggish home market, pushing carmakers to flood foreign markets in Europe, Australia and Latin America.Shipping capacity has not kept pace. Wallenius Wilhelmsen chief executive Lasse Kristoffersen said the global car-carrier fleet has expanded by around 40% but still cannot satisfy Chinese export demand, and average annual charter rates for large car carriers hit $70,000 a day in June, up from $42,500 at the end of last year, according to shipbroker Clarksons. Höegh Autoliners chief executive Andreas Enger said the boom has pushed ocean freight rates for cars to double their pre-pandemic levels, describing China's shift from a minor exporter to the world's largest as happening in just five years.With specialised vessels scarce, some automakers are now shipping vehicles in standard containers typically used for furniture or electronics. Kristoffersen said up to four million vehicles a year are now exported from China via containers or other alternatives to dedicated car carriers, a practice that has become common enough that major container shipping lines including A.P. Moller-Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Co. are now selling services directly to automakers.The export drive is reshaping global market share. SAIC Motor's EU registrations rose 19% and BYD's more than doubled in the first half of 2026, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, while legacy rivals largely stagnated, Stellantis gained just 6%, Volkswagen edged up 2.6%, and Renault fell 4.2%. Chinese vehicles remain largely absent from the US market due to tariffs and software restrictions tied to national security concerns, but are increasingly displacing Western brands in markets including the UK, Brazil and Germany.Behind the export surge lies a domestic slowdown. Chinese car sales fell more than 20% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to International Energy Agency data. Sino Auto Insights managing director Tu Le described the export push as a pressure release valve for a market oversaturated with competing brands. Chinese manufacturers have also begun moving into shipping itself to secure capacity, with BYD launching its first dedicated car carrier in 2024 and now operating a fleet of eight vessels.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Individually, these alerts rarely move markets, Latvia and Finland have both issued similar drone related warnings repeatedly through 2026 as drones stray off course near the Russian border. The relevance here is cumulative rather than singular: another pair of alerts landing the same evening keeps NATO's eastern flank in the geopolitical risk conversation even as headlines remain dominated by the Middle East, and any escalation beyond a precautionary posture, an actual intrusion, interception, or casualty, would be the trigger that moves European risk sentiment and defence names rather than the alerts themselves.Still the knee jerk is a bid for the USD. --- Two more airspace alerts on NATO's eastern flank, a now familiar pattern rather than a new escalation, for now.Summary:Latvia's National Armed Forces issued an air threat alert on X at 9.10pm local time on ThursdayFinland's Defence Forces announced a temporary restriction zone for aviation and maritime traffic in the eastern Gulf of Finland just minutes later, at 9.14pmBoth countries have issued similar precautionary alerts repeatedly through 2026, typically tied to Ukrainian drones straying off course during strikes on Russian targets near the borderPrevious incidents this year have seen Latvia's eastern municipalities placed under cell broadcast alert and NATO air policing fighters scrambled, with at least one drone destroyed over Estonian territoryFinland has restricted the same Gulf of Finland corridor near Kotka on multiple occasions this year, most recently in July, without confirmed drone incursions into its airspace Latvia's National Armed Forces issued an air threat alert on Thursday evening, followed within minutes by Finland's Defence Forces announcing a temporary restriction on aviation and maritime traffic in the eastern Gulf of Finland, the latest pair of precautionary measures on NATO's eastern flank amid the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.Neither country's statement, as relayed, detailed the specific trigger for Thursday's alerts. But both fit a pattern that has repeated through 2026: Latvia has issued similar air threat warnings covering its eastern municipalities, including Alūksne, Balvi, Ludza, Rēzekne and Krāslava, on multiple occasions this year, typically after sensors detected an unidentified object near the border with Russia. In several of those cases, the warnings were later confirmed to involve Ukrainian drones that had strayed off course during strikes on targets in Russia's Leningrad region, with NATO air policing fighters scrambled in response and at least one drone shot down over neighbouring Estonian territory. Some officials in the region have suggested the pattern of incursions may reflect deliberate harassment by Russia rather than solely stray Ukrainian drones, though that characterisation remains contested and unconfirmed in Thursday's specific case.Finland's restriction, covering the waters and airspace near the city of Kotka in the eastern Gulf of Finland, follows a similarly established pattern. Finnish authorities have imposed comparable temporary restrictions in that same corridor on several occasions since Ukrainian and Russian drone activity near the border intensified, most recently in mid-July, when a restriction was lifted after roughly three and a half hours with no drones confirmed to have crossed into Finnish airspace. Finnish officials have described the restrictions as precautionary, intended to protect civilians and preserve the ability to intercept drones if needed, rather than as a response to a confirmed incursion.Both Latvia and Finland have steadily reinforced air defence capabilities along their eastern borders through 2026, with Latvia continuing to build out an intermediate range air defence layer under its joint Livonian Shield programme with Estonia. While Thursday's alerts do not, on the available information, indicate an escalation beyond the pattern already established this year, the frequency of these incidents continues to underscore the persistent spillover risk from the war in Ukraine along NATO's Baltic and Nordic borders.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. PBOC injected CNY 349bn via overnight reverse repos, but ran zero 7-day reverse repo volume Friday Net effect: CNY 1.001tln drained today via maturities, no new reverse repos conducted Weekly net drain totals CNY 1.0985tln as repo and outright maturities outpaced injections This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Franklin Templeton's note lands as a risk-on counterweight to the more cautious Fed and inflation narratives dominating this week, arguing that strong corporate earnings outweigh geopolitical tension and rate uncertainty. Its preference for US, Japan and emerging market equities over Europe and Australia reflects a straightforward AI exposure trade, betting that markets tied to the technology buildout will keep outperforming those more sensitive to energy and commodity swings, a call that puts it somewhat at odds with Australia's own rate and growth backdrop.---Earlier on the Fed:ICYMI - Barkin says rate path unclear as sticky inflation meets resilient economyFed's Goolsbee says inflation data improving, hopes tariff effects fadeICYMI - Hawkish Fed's Hammack says acting now on inflation is really critical--- Franklin Templeton is choosing earnings over headlines, and betting the AI trade still has room to run.Summary:Franklin Templeton remains optimistic on equities into August, looking past renewed geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns in favour of strong corporate earningsThe firm said recent volatility has reset technology valuations and eased stretched sentiment and positioning, improving the setup for further gainsIt retains an AI tilt, overweighting US, Japan and emerging market equities, while staying more cautious on markets with greater energy and commodity sensitivityFranklin Templeton sees international duration as relatively attractive, arguing rate hike expectations outside the US look overly optimistic given weaker global growthThe firm expects the Fed will ultimately need to tighten policy further, citing new Chair Kevin Warsh's approach as a source of added uncertaintyAustralia is named the firm's least preferred equity market, citing weak domestic growth, unsupportive fiscal policy and tight monetary policy Franklin Templeton said it remains optimistic on equities heading into August, arguing that strong corporate earnings outweigh renewed geopolitical tensions and lingering inflation concerns. The firm said recent market volatility has done useful work resetting technology valuations and cooling sentiment and positioning indicators that had been drifting toward exuberance, leaving a healthier setup for further gains.The firm's core equity view leans heavily on artificial intelligence exposure, with overweight positions in the US, Japan and emerging markets, and a more cautious stance toward markets with greater sensitivity to energy and commodity prices. It named Australia its least preferred region, pointing to a mix of weak domestic growth, unsupportive fiscal policy and tight monetary policy as reasons for the underweight.On rates, Franklin Templeton continues to favour international duration over US Treasuries, arguing that weaker growth outlooks outside the United States make current market pricing for rate hikes in those regions look overly aggressive. On the Fed itself, the firm struck a more hawkish note than some of its peers, saying new Chair Kevin Warsh's approach has introduced additional uncertainty and that it ultimately expects the Fed will need to tighten policy further, a view that puts it closer to Deutsche Bank's more hawkish gold-adjacent framing than to the more dovish read offered by Fed speakers like Barkin and Goolsbee this week.---This caught my eye on Japan:---Franklin Templeton is a global asset management firm headquartered in San Mateo, California, founded in 1947 and built up over subsequent decades through the acquisitions of Templeton Global Investors and Mutual Series, among others, giving it deep roots in both growth investing and value investing traditions. It manages assets across equities, fixed income, multi-asset and alternative strategies through a multi-boutique structure, including well known affiliates such as Franklin Equity Group, Templeton Global Macro, ClearBridge Investments, Western Asset Management and Martin Currie. The firm is publicly traded and one of the larger diversified asset managers globally by assets under management, serving institutional and retail investors worldwide. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.