Japan has signalled a higher likelihood of FX intervention, with Mimura’s use of “decisive” marking a clear escalation in rhetoric. Combined with Ueda’s earlier comments, authorities are showing increasing sensitivity to yen weakness.Summary:Japan’s FX chief Atsushi Mimura warns authorities are ready to take “decisive” action if speculative moves persist. Language seen as the strongest intervention signal since July 2024 yen-buying operations. Comments come after USD/JPY pushed through 160, triggering renewed concern. Follows earlier remarks from Kazuo Ueda that helped push USD/JPY lower. Combined messaging suggests policy + intervention sensitivity to yen weakness is rising.Japanese authorities have issued their strongest signal yet that they are prepared to intervene in currency markets, with Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura warning that “decisive” action may be taken if speculative moves in the yen continue.Mimura’s remarks came after the yen weakened beyond the 160 level against the U.S. dollar, its softest since mid-2024 when authorities last stepped in to support the currency. He noted that speculative activity appears to be increasing not only in foreign exchange markets but also in crude oil futures, raising concerns about disorderly price action.The use of the word “decisive” is particularly significant. While Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama had used similar language in recent weeks, markets had been waiting for confirmation from Mimura, who is traditionally more cautious. His adoption of the term is widely interpreted by traders as a clear signal that intervention, most likely yen-buying, is actively being considered.Messaging from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda today emphasised the growing importance of exchange rate movements for inflation and policy. While Ueda stopped short of verbal intervention, his remarks contributed to a pullback in USD/JPY, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to any shift in tone from Japanese officials.Taken together, the messaging from both fiscal and monetary authorities suggests a coordinated increase in vigilance toward currency weakness. The focus is not necessarily on specific levels, but rather on the pace and nature of moves—particularly those driven by speculative positioning.For policymakers, the concern is that excessive yen depreciation could amplify inflation through higher import costs, especially energy, and destabilise expectations. This is particularly relevant in the current environment, where rising global oil prices are already feeding into domestic price pressures.For markets, the implications are clear. The probability of intervention has risen meaningfully, and the threshold for action appears lower if volatility accelerates. While no immediate move is guaranteed, the shift in language suggests that authorities are increasingly uncomfortable with current currency dynamics. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BoJ Governor Ueda emphasised the growing impact of FX on inflation and policy, reinforcing that currency moves are now a key input into decision-making. While not verbal intervention, the comments supported the yen by signalling increased sensitivity to FX-driven inflation.Summary:Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted FX as a key driver of inflation and economic outcomes. Stressed the BoJ will closely monitor currency moves and factor them into policy decisions. Noted FX impact is rising as firms become more willing to raise prices and wages. Comments helped strengthen the yen, despite no explicit intervention warning. Reinforces view FX is now part of the BoJ reaction function, not just a background variable.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda underscored the growing importance of currency movements in shaping Japan’s inflation outlook, with remarks that appear to have supported the yen despite stopping short of explicit verbal intervention.Ueda said foreign exchange moves are among the factors that have a “huge impact” on Japan’s economy and prices, adding that the central bank will closely monitor developments in currency markets. While such comments are broadly consistent with previous communication, the emphasis on FX comes at a time when exchange rate volatility is increasingly feeding into domestic inflation dynamics.A key shift highlighted by Ueda is the changing behaviour of firms. As companies become more willing to raise wages and pass on higher costs, fluctuations in the yen are having a more direct and amplified impact on prices. This suggests that FX is no longer just influencing import costs at the margin, but is increasingly shaping underlying inflation through expectations and pricing behaviour.Ueda also noted that currency movements can affect inflation expectations, reinforcing the idea that exchange rates are becoming embedded in the Bank of Japan’s policy framework. The central bank will assess how FX developments influence the likelihood of achieving its growth and inflation forecasts, as well as the balance of risks around its 2% target.Importantly, the governor stopped short of issuing any direct warning about excessive currency moves or signalling concern about specific levels, meaning the remarks do not constitute formal verbal intervention. However, the tone suggests a subtle shift toward greater sensitivity to yen weakness, particularly given its inflationary implications.Ueda added that long-term interest rates are moving in line with market expectations for growth, inflation and policy, and indicated that a gradual and appropriate pace of short-term rate hikes should help maintain stability across the yield curve.For markets, the takeaway is nuanced. While not an explicit attempt to influence the currency, the comments reinforce that FX is now firmly part of the BoJ’s reaction function. That alone can have a stabilising effect on the yen, particularly in an environment where investors are testing central bank tolerance for currency-driven inflation pressures. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I posted the news from the FT here:Trump says US could take the oil in Iran (via Financial Times)In summary:U.S. President Donald Trump signalled a mix of escalation risk and cautious optimism on diplomacy in comments reported by the Financial Times. He suggested the United States could seize Iranian oil assets, including the key export hub at Kharg Island, describing it as an operation that could be carried out “very easily” and claiming Iran has limited defences there. Trump framed control of Iran’s oil as a preferred strategic outcome, though acknowledged domestic pushback against such a move.At the same time, he indicated that indirect negotiations with Iran—conducted via intermediaries—are progressing, adding that a deal could be reached relatively quickly. This highlights the ongoing dual-track approach of military pressure alongside diplomacy.Trump also noted that Iran has allowed a greater number of Pakistan-flagged oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, with the figure doubling to 20. This suggests some limited easing in maritime flows, even as broader tensions persist.Overall, the comments underscore a highly fluid situation, where aggressive military options remain on the table, but are being weighed alongside diplomatic efforts that could potentially deliver a faster resolution.-At the same time the Wall Street Journal reported on Trump weighing a direct military operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium, according to U.S. officials.Trump is considering a high-risk military operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium, a move that could significantly escalate the conflict. The mission would target key nuclear sites such as Isfahan and Natanz and could require U.S. forces on the ground for several days, exposing them to retaliation and extending the war timeline.While no decision has been made, the uranium remains central to Washington’s objective of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The U.S. is simultaneously pursuing a diplomatic route, urging Iran to hand over the material via intermediaries, though Tehran has resisted.The situation presents a clear trade-off: a forced seizure could decisively neutralise nuclear risks but at high operational and escalation cost, while a negotiated solution would avoid conflict expansion but remains uncertain. -This all comes after another tense weekend, Via Reuters: Electricity has been cut in parts of the Iranian capital Tehran and in Alborz province after attacks on the area’s infrastructure, Iran’s state media cites the country’s ministry of energy as saying. Shrapnel hit a part of the electricity grid in Alborz province, causing power to be cut in several areas of Tehran and the city of Karaj. Authorities are working on reinstating it, state media adds.-I am thinking that talk on Kharg Island is a distraction from the real goal, controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Kharg Island is basically storage and shipping. By taking it Trump would get the oil currently there, but thats about it. And of course make it much difficult for Iran to export oil (which may be a goal, sure). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump said U.S.-Iran talks are progressing well and could deliver a deal soon, while noting uncertainty remains. He also flagged the potential reopening of limited oil flows through Hormuz, signalling tentative de-escalation.Summary:Donald Trump says the U.S. is negotiating with Iran both directly and indirectly. Claims progress is strong, stating talks are “doing extremely well” and a deal could come soon. Says Iran has allowed 20 oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting limited easing in flows. However, adds uncertainty, noting a deal is not guaranteed. Reinforces ongoing two-track approach: diplomacy alongside conflict riskU.S. President Donald Trump signalled tentative progress in efforts to end the conflict with Iran, stating that negotiations are underway through both direct and indirect channels, while cautioning that an agreement is not assured.Speaking in remarks on Sunday, Trump said discussions with Tehran are “doing extremely well” and expressed optimism that a deal could be reached “pretty soon.” His comments suggest an intensification of diplomatic engagement, with talks reportedly taking place both through intermediaries and via more direct contact.In a potentially market-relevant development, Trump also said Iran has allowed 20 oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, with flows expected to begin as soon as the following morning. If confirmed, this would represent a modest easing of the disruption that has gripped one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints since the conflict began, where shipping activity has been severely constrained.However, Trump tempered his optimism by acknowledging that a deal is not guaranteed, underscoring the fragile and fluid nature of the negotiations. The mixed messaging reflects the broader dynamic that has characterised the conflict: a simultaneous push toward diplomacy alongside persistent geopolitical risks and ongoing military activity.The latest comments come amid continued uncertainty over the trajectory of the war, with markets closely tracking any signs of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and stabilising global energy flows. While the suggestion of improving negotiations may provide some relief to risk sentiment, the lack of clarity around timing and outcomes means that investors are likely to remain cautious.Overall, the remarks reinforce the prevailing narrative of a conflict at a potential inflection point, where diplomatic progress is emerging but remains uncertain and highly dependent on developments in the days ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The BoJ Summary of Opinions points to a continued tightening bias, with policymakers open to further rate hikes if conditions allow. However, Middle East risks and rising oil prices are prompting caution, with stagflation concerns emerging.Summary:Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions shows a clear tightening bias, conditional on data. Some members support continued rate hikes if growth and inflation forecasts hold. Policy still seen as accommodative even after recent hikes, implying room to tighten further. Middle East uncertainty is a key reason for holding steady in the near term. Rising oil prices flagged as a stagflation risk (weak growth + higher prices).The Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions from its March meeting reveals a policy board increasingly inclined toward further tightening, while remaining cautious in the face of heightened global uncertainty.Several members indicated that additional rate hikes would be appropriate if the central bank’s economic and inflation forecasts materialise, reinforcing the view that Japan’s policy normalisation cycle is not yet complete. Despite recent increases, policymakers broadly agreed that monetary conditions remain accommodative, suggesting the current policy rate is still well below neutral levels.However, the tone of the discussion also reflects a more complex backdrop. A number of members highlighted the need to proceed carefully given the uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict, which has driven a sharp rise in energy prices. This external shock is seen as a key factor justifying a pause in the near term, even as underlying inflation dynamics continue to firm.The central focus for the BoJ remains whether price pressures become sustained and domestically driven. Policymakers emphasised the importance of monitoring wage growth, corporate pricing behaviour, and broader economic conditions, including insights from the Tankan survey and regional business reports. Some members noted that scrutiny of wage and price developments will become increasingly important from the next meeting onward, reflecting the Bank’s emphasis on achieving stable, demand-driven inflation.At the same time, there is a growing awareness of the risks of falling behind the curve. One member warned that if underlying inflation continues to rise above the 2% target and the Bank delays action, it may be forced into more aggressive tightening later, potentially delivering a sharper shock to the economy.Adding to the complexity, policymakers flagged the risk that higher oil prices could generate cost-push inflation without corresponding strength in demand—raising the possibility of a stagflationary environment. This underscores the challenge facing the BoJ: balancing the need to normalise policy against the risk that external shocks could undermine growth.Overall, the Summary suggests a BoJ that remains on a gradual tightening path, but one that is increasingly data-dependent and sensitive to global developments. The bias is clearly toward further hikes, but the timing will hinge on how domestic inflation evolves alongside external risks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Via Reuters:Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’ – FT Trump says US could seize the export hub of Kharg Island – FT Trump says number of Pakistan-flagged oil tankers Iran had permitted through the Strait of Hormuz had now been doubled to 20 – FT“To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’" he told FT.Also:Trump says could take Kharg Island ‘very easily’: FT Trump thinks Irans have no defense on Kharg Island: FT Trump says indirect talks via emissaries progressing well: FT Trump says a deal could be made ‘fairly quickly’: FT****Also, via Wall Street Journal:SummaryPresident Donald Trump is weighing a direct military operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium, according to U.S. officials. The mission would likely require U.S. troops on Iranian soil for days, making it one of the most complex options under consideration. Washington is also pushing for Iran to hand over the material via negotiations, avoiding a high-risk ground operation. The uranium stockpile—central to the war’s rationale—remains located at key sites including Isfahan and Natanz. Any forced extraction would risk significant escalation and prolonging the conflict beyond current timelines.President Donald Trump is considering a high-risk military operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, a move that would mark a major escalation in the ongoing conflict and potentially require U.S. forces to operate inside Iran for an extended period, according to U.S. officials. The proposed mission would target nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium believed to be stored at key nuclear sites, including underground facilities in Isfahan and Natanz. The material is central to Washington’s stated objective of preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, and its removal, either through negotiation or force, has emerged as a core condition for ending the war. While no decision has been made, officials say the president remains open to the option, even as he weighs the risks to U.S. personnel. The operation itself would be complex and logistically demanding. Military planners envision inserting forces into contested areas, securing perimeters under potential missile and drone fire, and deploying specialised teams capable of safely extracting radioactive material. The uranium, stored in multiple cylinders, would need to be transported under strict safety protocols, likely requiring a coordinated airlift operation. Experts caution that such a mission would not be a rapid strike but a multi-day operation, increasing exposure to Iranian retaliation and raising the risk of a broader escalation. The potential for the conflict to extend beyond its current expected timeframe, previously framed as several weeks, has become a key concern among policymakers and military officials. Diplomatic efforts remain ongoing in parallel. The U.S. has encouraged Iran to surrender the uranium as part of a negotiated settlement, with intermediaries including Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt facilitating indirect contacts. However, no direct talks have taken place, and Iran has so far resisted such demands. The debate reflects a broader strategic dilemma. Seizing the uranium could deliver a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but at the cost of significant operational risk and potential escalation. Conversely, a negotiated transfer would avoid direct confrontation but depends on concessions Tehran has shown little willingness to make.As military preparations continue and additional forces are positioned in the region, the uranium question is emerging as a central pivot point in the conflict—one that could determine whether the war moves toward resolution or enters a more dangerous and prolonged phase. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bond giants see growth shock ahead as markets fixate on inflationSummary:Major bond managers warn markets are underestimating growth risks from the U.S.–Iran war, according to Bloomberg. Oil above $110 has driven a Treasury selloff, with yields surging on inflation fears. Investors expect the Fed to stay tight or even hike, pushing bonds toward their worst month since Oct 2024. However, firms like PIMCO, JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock see a growth slowdown that could reverse yields lower. Key debate: inflation shock now vs recession risk next. Some of Wall Street’s largest bond investors are increasingly warning that financial markets are focusing too heavily on inflation risks from the U.S.–Iran war, while underestimating the growing threat to economic growth, according to reporting by Bloomberg (gated).The recent surge in oil prices above $110 per barrel, driven by disruptions linked to the conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has triggered a sharp repricing across global fixed income markets. U.S. Treasuries have sold off aggressively, with yields climbing across the curve as investors price in the possibility that the Federal Reserve may need to keep policy tight, or even hike rates, to contain inflationary pressures.Short- and medium-dated Treasury yields have risen by more than 50 basis points since the conflict escalated, while 30-year yields have approached the 5% level, nearing highs last seen in 2023. The move reflects concerns that higher energy prices will feed through into broader inflation, with organisations such as the OECD warning U.S. consumer prices could rise meaningfully this year.However, several major asset managers argue that this market reaction may be too one-sided. Investors at firms including PIMCO, JPMorgan Chase and Columbia Threadneedle Investments are positioning for a different outcome—one in which the energy shock ultimately weakens economic activity and pulls yields back down.Their argument centres on the transmission mechanism from higher oil prices to the broader economy. Elevated fuel costs, tighter financial conditions and declining equity markets are expected to weigh on both businesses and consumers. Economists have already begun revising down growth forecasts, with recession probabilities rising toward the 30–35% range over the next year.In this framework, what begins as an inflation shock can quickly evolve into a growth shock. Historically, such dynamics tend to support bonds as slowing activity increases the likelihood of eventual monetary easing. Some investors are already beginning to position for this shift, viewing the recent rise in yields as an opportunity to lock in more attractive entry points.At BlackRock, fixed-income chief Rick Rieder said he expects to increase exposure to shorter-dated bonds once the outlook becomes clearer, while others have started adding to long-duration positions in anticipation of a reversal in yields.The divergence between market pricing and investor positioning highlights a key tension. Futures markets are currently pricing out rate cuts this year and even assigning a probability to further tightening. Yet some of the largest bond managers believe that if the Federal Reserve leans too heavily into the inflation narrative, it risks exacerbating the slowdown—ultimately forcing yields lower as growth deteriorates.For now, the bond market remains caught between two competing forces: an immediate inflation shock driven by energy prices, and a potentially more powerful growth slowdown that could dominate in the months ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BdF's Villeroy says ECB ready to act, but too early to discuss timing of any rate hikeEuropean Central Bank’s François Villeroy says policymakers are ready to act if energy-driven inflation broadens. Emphasises it is too early to discuss timing of any rate hike despite rising market expectations. Iran war-driven energy shock is seen as inflationary near term, but ECB cannot prevent the initial spike. Policy focus is on second-round effects, not the first-round energy price surge. Markets currently price ~3 hikes in 2026, with the first fully priced by JuneThe European Central Bank is signalling a clear readiness to respond to energy-driven inflation pressures, but remains cautious about committing to the timing of any policy tightening, according to comments from French central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau.Speaking to Italy’s La Stampa, Villeroy said the ECB stands prepared to act if the recent surge in energy prices begins to spill over into broader inflation, but stressed that it is premature to discuss specific dates for potential rate hikes. His remarks reflect a growing internal debate within the ECB as policymakers assess the inflationary consequences of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which has driven a sharp rise in energy costs.The key distinction for the ECB is between the initial inflation shock and its potential persistence. Villeroy acknowledged that the central bank is effectively powerless to prevent the immediate impact of higher energy prices on headline inflation. Instead, policy is focused on preventing second-round effects—where higher energy costs feed into wages, services, and core inflation dynamics.This framing aligns with the ECB’s broader reaction function. While some policymakers have floated the possibility of an April rate hike, others remain cautious, arguing that there is insufficient evidence at this stage to justify a rapid tightening response. Villeroy’s comments reinforce the more measured camp, emphasising optionality rather than urgency.At the same time, he conceded that the war has worsened the inflation outlook, even if the ECB’s own adverse scenarios may overstate the risks by not accounting for potential policy responses. This suggests policymakers are aware of the upside risks to inflation but are not yet convinced that those risks will become entrenched.Market pricing, however, is moving ahead of the ECB’s guidance. Investors are currently expecting around three rate hikes this year, with the first move fully priced by June. This divergence highlights a familiar tension: markets are reacting to the inflation impulse from energy, while the ECB is focused on whether that impulse becomes persistent.For now, the ECB’s message is one of conditional readiness. Policymakers are clearly shifting toward a more hawkish stance as energy risks build, but remain data-dependent and unwilling to pre-commit to a tightening timeline without clearer evidence of broader inflation transmission. ---I just posted this chart update here ... spooky!Let's see if this nascent bounce develops. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Friday plummet in 'risk' is extending in early Asia trade. The higher USD (a little higher) was noticeable earlier and that's carrying on. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Israel intercepted two drones launched from Yemen, following Houthi missile attacks over the weekend. The developments mark the group’s entry into the conflict and highlight the growing regional spread of hostilities, with implications for security and shipping.Summary:Israel’s military says it intercepted two drones launched from Yemen, marking continued spillover from the widening regional conflict. The incident follows weekend claims by Iranian-backed Houthis of ballistic missile strikes on Israeli targets. The Houthis had signalled entry into the war, opening a new southern/frontline vector for Israel. This marks the first sustained Yemen-linked attacks on Israel since the conflict began one month ago. Escalation reinforces risks to Red Sea shipping, energy flows and regional security dynamics.Israel’s military said it intercepted two drones launched from Yemen, underscoring the growing regionalisation of the Middle East conflict as Iranian-aligned forces expand their involvement beyond the immediate Israel-Iran theatre.The drone interceptions follow a weekend escalation in which Iran-backed Houthi rebels formally claimed responsibility for launching ballistic missiles toward Israel. In a statement broadcast on the group’s Al-Masirah network, Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the strikes targeted what he described as sensitive Israeli military sites in the south of the country. Israel had earlier confirmed intercepting at least one missile.The developments mark a significant shift in the conflict’s trajectory. While tensions had already been elevated across the region, the Houthis’ direct entry into the war opens a new operational front from Yemen, extending the geographic scope of hostilities and increasing the complexity of Israel’s defensive posture.The group had signalled its intention to join the conflict late last week, and the subsequent missile and drone launches suggest that threat is now materialising. This is the first time Israel has faced sustained hostile fire from Yemen since the start of the current war, which began a month ago following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.The expansion of hostilities into Yemen carries broader strategic implications. The Houthis have previously demonstrated their ability to disrupt maritime traffic in the Red Sea, particularly during earlier phases of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Their re-engagement raises renewed concerns over the security of key shipping lanes, including routes critical for global energy and trade flows.While Israel’s air defence systems have so far successfully intercepted incoming threats, the diversification of attack vectors—from missiles to drones and from multiple geographic fronts—highlights the evolving nature of the conflict. It also increases the risk of miscalculation and further escalation, particularly if attacks intensify or begin to penetrate defensive systems.For now, the latest intercepts reinforce the view that the conflict is broadening rather than stabilising. Diplomatic efforts remain ongoing in parallel, but the expansion of active fronts suggests that containment is becoming increasingly difficult as regional actors align more openly with either side. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Brent up around $2.70 to circa 115.30 a barrel US crude up around $2.35 to circa $102 a bblUS equity index futures had a very weak close on Friday, are lower to open the week. Weekend:Yemen attacks Israel again with missilesPakistan says it will host US-Iran talksWhere the warmakers are at: US-Iran talks uncertainUS sends more signals that troop deployments coming. Rubio hints at endgame This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The headline story on the weekend is from the Washington Post and it's titled: 'Pentagon prepares for weeks of ground operations in Iran'The headline basically tells the whole story and it signals what the market has been buzzing about since the Japan-based USS Tripoli was deployed to the Middle East on March 13. That ship has now arrived and other units have arrived as well or are reportedly en route.There are no plans for a large-scale ground invasion and it would be obvious if there were as that would require hundreds of thousands of troops. This deployment might involve thousands of troops including special forces with support from ground troops. There are no indications on what the targets may be, though there is plenty of speculation.The key detail is that it will take 'weeks', which already pushes the war beyond the 4-5 week timeline that Trump first laid out.One person cited in the report said the objectives under consideration would probably take “weeks, not months” to complete, while another put the potential timeline at “a couple of months”.That latter timeline is a gruesome one for the world economy as the lack of oil flowing is very quickly going to be a problem.As for Hormuz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered an equally-chilling message, though it took some reading between the lines. It came after he spoke with G7 ministers:“One of the immediate challenges we’re going to face is in Iran, when they decide that they want to set up a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz,” Rubio said.“Not only is this illegal, it’s unacceptable. It’s dangerous for the world, and it’s important that the world have a plan to confront it. The United States is prepared to be a part of that plan. We don’t have to lead that plan, but we are happy to be a part of it.”The implied message is that the US doesn't have a plan to open the Strait and it's not one of its objectives in the war. It also implies that the strait won't be opened when the US has accomplished its objectives, whatever they are. The fear is that the end of this war will be basically the US declaring 'we broke it, you fix it'. That's a problematic approach and could leave Iran with huge leverage at the end, along with a big problem for Europe, Asia and Africa.Given the extended timeline, I'd expect to see strong upward pressure on oil prices, barring any sort of diplomatic breakthough. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

For investors and traders navigating the current volatility, here is a backdrop of what happened over the recent trading sessions, characterized by escalating geopolitical tension and significant market retreats:Geopolitical Escalation: The conflict involving Iran has intensified as Houthis in Yemen announce entry into the conflict to support Tehran. While Trump signals to allies no immediate plans for an Iran invasion, diplomatic confusion persists. This was highlighted when Trump said Iran asked for a pause, a claim Iran quickly denied.Energy and Commodity Spikes: Crude prices have reacted sharply to the instability. WTI Crude oil touched $100 per barrel as markets eye the steel industry and brace for promised revenge from Iran. Adding to the tension, Trump joked about the Strait of Hormuz as the war drags on and NATO doubts resurface.Equity Market Sell-off: The broader markets are feeling the weight of the uncertainty. Major US stock indices closed lower for the fifth consecutive week.Tech Sector Hits: Technology shares have been particularly hard hit, with the Nasdaq falling below 21,000 for the first time since August, a move exacerbated by Tesla (TSLA) shares dropping more than 3%.Those are some important catch-up from investingLive.com and now let's dive in some interesting angles I see from the prediction markets lately.Prediction Markets Are Starting to Price Time, Not Just OutcomesKey points:Prediction markets are shifting from pricing the size of shocks to pricing their sequence. Rates markets increasingly imply an uneven policy reaction function, with inflation drawing faster responses than growth weakness. Elections are no longer being treated as a clean uncertainty reset. Crypto and regulation are becoming more sensitive to timing, liquidity, and enforcement shocks. The biggest edge now may come from understanding when risks hit, not just what the risks are. Prediction markets are no longer just moving faster than traditional coverage. I think they are starting to model uncertainty differently.The change is subtle but important. Markets are becoming more focused on time structure. Not just what happens, but when it happens, in what order it lands, and how policymakers react once one shock collides with another. That is a meaningful shift because many analysts still discuss risks in isolation, while market pricing is increasingly treating them as linked and sequential.That is where the newest divergence is emerging.Macro is shifting from fragility to path dependencyThe clearest change is in macro. Markets are acting less as if shocks can be measured one by one and added together neatly. Instead, they are behaving as if outcomes depend on sequence.That makes sense. An inflation surprise that hits before growth weakens is not the same as an inflation surprise that lands after activity has already rolled over. The shock may look similar on paper, but the policy consequences are very different. A late rate cut is not equivalent to an early one, even if the final number of cuts ends up being similar.This is where prediction markets appear to be ahead of much of the standard macro discussion. They are not just pricing magnitude. They are pricing interaction and order.In practical terms, that means investors may need to think less in terms of static scenario trees and more in terms of evolving chains of cause and effect. Once stress is already in the system, the next shock tends to matter more.Rates are starting to price an asymmetric central bank responseRates markets also seem to be moving away from the old idea of a balanced, fully symmetric reaction function.The growing market assumption looks more like this: central banks respond faster to inflation risk than to growth deterioration. That creates an important asymmetry. Upside inflation surprises get attention quickly, while downside growth risks may linger longer before policymakers feel comfortable stepping in.That is a very different framing from the standard "data-dependent both ways" narrative.You can see this in how traders interpret recent central bank communication. The market is less willing to assume that softening growth automatically leads to quick relief. At the same time, it remains highly sensitive to any sign that inflation could reaccelerate or become politically difficult to ignore. That creates skew across bonds, equities, FX, and crypto because the policy floor under growth may be weaker than many had assumed.Geopolitics is no longer just a cost storyAnother important shift is in how geopolitical stress is being interpreted.Traditional coverage still focuses heavily on direct economic channels such as oil, shipping disruptions, or trade friction. Markets, however, seem increasingly focused on the policy distortion channel. In other words, the real issue is not only the immediate shock. It is how governments respond to it.That includes subsidies, tariffs, trade restrictions, industrial policy, emergency support measures, and politically motivated interventions. Once that layer becomes dominant, the same geopolitical event can produce very different outcomes depending on the policy response that follows.This is one reason market pricing can look more unstable than the headlines suggest. The first-order shock may be understandable. The second-order political response is often much harder to model.Elections are shifting uncertainty forward, not removing itElections are another area where the time structure has changed.The old assumption was simple: once the vote is over, uncertainty declines. Markets now seem less convinced. In many cases, the vote is no longer the endpoint. It is the starting point for a new phase of uncertainty.That can mean delayed implementation, coalition bargaining, legal friction, contested mandates, or institutional drag. So instead of resolving risk, elections may now redistribute it into the weeks and months that follow.This is a meaningful shift in market psychology. It suggests volatility may increasingly migrate from the pre-election period into the post-election phase. That has implications not only for political contracts, but also for rates, FX, equities, and event-sensitive sectors.Crypto is becoming more short-horizon liquidity sensitiveCrypto may be the cleanest example of this broader transition.The old macro view treated crypto as mainly tied to longer cycle liquidity conditions over quarters. Now the sensitivity appears more compressed. Short-horizon rate expectations, central bank communication, and near-term liquidity conditions seem to matter more than before.That helps explain why crypto can react so sharply even when the broader macro narrative has not dramatically changed. The time horizon has shortened. Markets are responding faster to the front end of policy expectations and to shifts in liquidity tone.This also makes the asset class feel more twitchy. It is not just volatile in a general sense. It is becoming more reactive to immediate macro timing.Regulation is now about enforcement timingRegulation is also being reframed.Markets seem less focused on what rules say in theory and more focused on when enforcement lands, how suddenly it arrives, and whether it is politically timed. That is an important change because enforcement timing can create discontinuity risk.A platform, contract, or market structure can look stable one day and face an abrupt repricing the next if the regulatory trigger is event-driven. That makes regulation less of a slow-moving background variable and more of a live timing risk.This is especially relevant in crypto and prediction markets, where legal interpretation, agency posture, and political mood can change the trading environment very quickly. Recent developments around SEC crypto guidance and the formalization of rules for prediction markets reinforce that point.More signals are not always better signalsThere is one more layer here that should not be ignored: signal saturation.As more contracts, narratives, and event probabilities compete for attention, clarity can actually fall. More visible activity does not always mean better forecasting. Sometimes it means a noisier information environment where it becomes harder to tell the difference between informed positioning and reactive flow.That is a risk prediction market observers should take seriously. A denser signal environment can flatten conviction. Probabilities can become more active while also becoming less decisive.This may be one of the most underappreciated tensions in the current setup. Prediction markets are getting more sophisticated, but they are also becoming more crowded and more complex to interpret.Why this matters for traders and investorsThe main takeaway is that markets are increasingly pricing three things more aggressively than traditional coverage: Sequence Asymmetry Timing That is the real divergence I've noticed lately.Consensus analysis still often treats risks as static. Markets are becoming more dynamic in how they process them. They are asking whether inflation comes before weakness, whether elections resolve uncertainty or extend it, whether geopolitics changes costs or policy, and whether regulation arrives gradually or all at once.That is a more temporal way of thinking. It is also a more realistic one in the current environment.ICE's recent move to invest $600 million in Polymarket is another reminder that this space is not sitting on the fringe anymore. The market is maturing, but it is also becoming more sensitive to timing, framing, and second-order effects.The setup from hereIf this reading is right, the next big forecasting edge will not come only from knowing what the risk is. It will come from understanding the path it takes.That means asking different questions:If inflation reappears before growth breaks, does policy stay tighter for longer?If an election result is known quickly, does that actually reduce uncertainty, or simply move it into implementation risk?If geopolitical tension rises, is the bigger issue the direct drag, or the policy response that follows?If regulators act, is the content of the rule the story, or the timing of the enforcement shock?Those are the kinds of questions prediction markets seem to be asking earlier than much of the traditional commentary.Prediction markets are moving fastPrediction markets are moving beyond faster forecasting and toward temporal modeling of uncertainty.That means they are increasingly pricing not just what happens, but when it happens, in what order it happens, and how unevenly institutions respond.Right now, that shift toward time structure looks like the clearest area where market sentiment is moving ahead of standard coverage. Stay tuned to investingLive.com when you want to make sense of some of that, and perhaps some original opinions of the possible trades beyond the news. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Trump joked about the “Strait of Trump” as the Iran war enters month two, with Hormuz disruptions persisting. Mixed signals on talks continue, while US stocks fell for a fifth week and NATO commitment concerns resurfaced.SummaryTrump joked about the “Strait of Trump,” underscoring its central role in the Iran war and global oil flows Conflict enters second month with no clear resolution; risks of prolonged disruption remain high Mixed signals from Iran on negotiations continue to muddy the diplomatic outlook Trump struck a relaxed tone despite US equities extending losses to a fifth straight week NATO comments raise fresh doubts about US commitment to alliance amid geopolitical strain Nasdaq closes at lowest level in six months, highlighting risk-off sentimenU.S. President Donald Trump placed the Strait of Hormuz firmly at the centre of market and geopolitical focus, jokingly referring to the critical energy chokepoint as the “Strait of Trump” during remarks in Miami Friday afternoon, while reiterating that Iran must reopen the vital shipping route. Trump got a laugh with his light hearted:Iran has to “open up the Strait of Trump — I mean, Hormuz.” The comments come as the Iran conflict moves into its second month, with little sign of resolution. The war has evolved into a prolonged and complex standoff, with both military and economic dimensions intensifying. Iran retains the ability to disrupt or effectively block transit through Hormuz, a route that typically handles around 20 million barrels of oil per day, sustaining a significant risk premium across global energy markets.At the same time, the diplomatic picture remains highly uncertain. Washington continues to signal that talks with Tehran are progressing, with Trump stating that Iran is negotiating and seeking a deal. However, Iranian officials have repeatedly denied that formal negotiations are taking place, instead framing communications as indirect or routed through intermediaries. The conflicting narratives have added to market volatility and reinforced the sense that a clear off-ramp remains elusive.Trump appeared notably relaxed in his public remarks despite mounting market pressure. U.S. equities have now posted a fifth consecutive weekly decline, marking the longest losing streak in nearly four years, while the Nasdaq has fallen to its lowest level in six months. The divergence between market stress and political tone has not gone unnoticed by investors.Adding to the geopolitical backdrop, Trump also questioned the United States’ commitment to NATO, suggesting Washington does not necessarily “have to be there” for the alliance if European members fail to provide support. The remarks introduce a further layer of uncertainty for global security arrangements at a time when markets are already grappling with war-driven energy disruptions and fragile risk sentiment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran expected to deliver counter-proposal to the US today - reportTrump signals to allies no immediate plans for Iran invasionHouthis in Yemen announce entry into the conflict to support IranSecretary of State Rubio said that the war with Iran will continue for another 2-4 weeksUMich final March consumer sentiment 53.3 vs 54.0 expectedECB Schnabel: There is no need to rush into actionPhiladelphia Fed Pres. Paulson: Fed has made notable progress bringing inflation downMore from Paulson: Impact of Iran War comes as inflation has been highFed's Barkin: Even before oil shock, progress on inflation was stallingIran hackers claim the breach of Kash Patel's personal emailBaker Hughes total rig count falls to 543 from 552 last weekMarkets:WTI crude oil up $5.59 to $100.07S&P 500 down 1.7% to 6368Gold up $135 to $4513US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to 5.00%Bitcoin down 4.2%USD leads, GBP lagsIt was an ugly one for most markets today, with the exception of gold and oil. The Nasdaq fell to a six month low as war worries extended throughout the day. The positive backdrop of Trump extending his deadline to strike power facilities yesterday ultimately failed. The thinking is that the 10 day extension will add more pain and that a deal doesn't look promising.As oil steadily climbed it pushed yields higher and equities lower. Compounding the pain in stocks is an intensifying selloff in tech stocks led by some of the highest flyers this year and last. That looks like a deleveraging move as the uncertainty around the economy grows. Early on in the conflict, there was trust this would wrap up in Trump's 4-5 week timeline but we just completed Week 4 and Rubio today said 2-4 more weeks.Late in the day, the report about Houthis entering the war was questioned. US negotiator Steve Witkoff said he thinks there will be meetings with Iran this week and that Trump wants a peace deal. I guess all that is going to depend what Trump puts on the table. In an optimistic world maybe there is a way Iran gives up nuclear material in exchange for peace and sanctions relief. With that, Trump could also claim he stopped Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.The market is also likely fearful of a US escalation over the weekend. The report about the US not using ground troops barely had an effect on the market as everything is quickly discounted as possible mis-information.In terms of movers, the MAG7 looks like this:Meta (META): down 4.0%Amazon (AMZN): down 4.0% Microsoft (MSFT): down 2.5% Alphabet (GOOGL): down 2.5% Nvidia (NVDA): down 2.2%Tesla (TSLA): down 2.8% Apple (AAPL): down 1.6% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing lower for the day and lower for the week. The decline this week is the 5th consecutive weekly decline. The S&P decline is the worst string in 4 years.A look at the closing levels shows:Dow industrial average-793.78 or -1.73% at 45166.33. S&P index fell -108.49 or -1.67% at 6368.67.NASDAQ index fell -459.72 points or -2.15% at 20948.36.For the trading week:Dow industrial average fell -0.90%S&P index fell -2.12%NASDAQ index -3.23%From the recent highs, both the Dow and the NASDAQ index are down over 10%..Dow industrial average is down -10.58% from the January highS&P index is down -9.05%NASDAQ index is down -12.72%As a point of comparison in 2025, the corrective move from the February high to the April/May low saw the: Dow industrial average fell -18.74%S&P index fell -21.35%NASDAQ index fell -26.48%Looking at the weekly chart of the major indices, the Dow industrial average has reached it 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April low at 45202.60, and is also testing a swing area near 45073.63. The price is trading at its lowest level since September 2025.For the S&P index, it remains above the 38.2% retracement at 6174.38 and also a swing level between 6147 and 6212. That area is around 3% to 3.5% away. Another down week could have prices near that level next week.For the NASDAQ index, the price is still above its 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April low comes in at 20, 491.86. That is within a swing area between 20,204 and 20,560 (see yellow area on the chart below). The low of that swing area is about 3.4% away from current levels.Once again, the corrective declines from last year were much greater than what would project if the aforementioned the support levels are reached and hold support. So there is room to roam if the market continues to be pushed by the inability to solve the war in Iran, and higher oil prices continue to pressure the economies and and growth potential. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

This day just keeps getting worse.At the start of trading Monday it looked like Trump was on track to get some kind of ceasefire by now. Instead, we have talk of bombing steel plants and now this.The Houthis in Yemen say they will enter the conflict on the side of Iran if any alliance joins the US and Israel. The possible chokepoint now is the the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which they could try to blockade. If so, it's not as devastating as the Strait of Hormuz because the traffic can go through the Suez canal. But it makes the trip significantly longer as the Saudi oil redirected to the pipeline in the Red Sea would now have to travel through the Mediterranean and then around Africa.Saudi Arabia has also indicated it could enter into the war and that could mean a showdown between the Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia, who have already been fighting at various levels for 11 years.With this announcement, we are seeing WTI crude back over $100 as all signs point to escalation rather than ceasefire.Soon we will start to find out how this is hitting the global economy with gasoline and diesel prices spiking. In places, there are already signs of shortages and I can't see those improving any time soon.Update: Earlier reports said they would enter the war but the later statement made it clear that they will enter if others join the US and Israel. It looks like this is aimed at deterrence. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The market continues to bid up oil. WTI settled up $5.16 to $99.64 but shortly before settlement it hit $100 per barrel for the first time since Monday, when Trump pushed back his deadline.The market is increasingly seeing longer timelines on resolving this war.Eyes are also on the steel market. A US-Israeli strike occurred today on a large Iranian steel plant. In response, Iran has just released a target list of steel plants it will hit in the coming hours.Kuwait Steel (United Steel Industrial Corporation) — Kuwait City, KuwaitEMSTEEL Group (United Iron and Steel Company) — Abu Dhabi, UAEYehuda Steel Ltd. — Ashdod, IsraelSaudi Iron & Steel Co. (Hadeed) — Al Jubail City, Eastern Saudi ArabiaFoulath Holding — Khalifa bin Salman Port, BahrainQatar Steel QPSC — Mesaieed Port, QatarThe messages showing the various plants look like this:What strikes me first is that Qatar is on the list. They had sent some less-aggressive messages about Iran and there was some speculation they had reached a deal to minimize hostilities but that doesn't appear to be the case based on these messages.The largest facilities are in Saudi Arabia and produce about 7.0 Mt of steel annually. Combined, the facilities make about 15 Mt of steel, which is mostly rebar, billet and construction steel. The Bahrain facilities also produces 13 million tons of premium iron-ore pellets, making it the world's largest DR merchant pelletizing producer.For some sense of size, the largest US producer is Nucor, which produces 30 Mt across 26 facilities in the US.In terms of the global economy, taking steel production off line wouldn't be too big of a problem as it can be redirected from China, India and Turkey, which all have substantial overcapacity. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The mood in markets continues to deteriorate into the weekend. I don't know if that's pricing in the chance of a weekend escalation or it's a realization the war could go on for another month (or longer) and that could cripple energy markets. Tech had been vulnerable to AI narratives unwinding all year and it's worsening now.I worry that we're still a long way from pricing in a global recession, energy shock and rate hikes. The market has shown patience with the war but Marco Rubio today indicated another two to four weeks. At the outset, Trump said 4-5 weeks and then repeatedly (including yesterday) said the US was ahead of schedule. That's just not the case and the market is now indicating that it's losing faith in the White House to wrap this up and get the oil flowing.The Nasdaq is down 1.9% on the day.The good news is that Iran is expected to float a proposal to the White House today or tomorrow and that could be the starting point for actual negotiations. We shall see.In terms of movers, the MAG7 looks like this:Meta (META): down 4.5%Amazon (AMZN): down 3.4% Microsoft (MSFT): down 2.0% Alphabet (GOOGL): down 2.4% Nvidia (NVDA): down 2.0%Tesla (TSLA): down 3.3% Apple (AAPL): up 1.2%Microsoft is particularly ugly and is down 35% from the high in October. You have to wonder if they announce a cut to capex at some point.The chart I want to highlight though is TSLA, which is at the lowest since September. Despite that, it still trades at extremely lofty multiples. The consensus for this year is just $2.02 in earnings, putting the P/E multiple at 177x.Just crossing now.Iran's foreign minister writes: Israel has hit 2 of Iran's largest steel factories, a power plant and civilian nuclear sites among other infrastructure. Israel claims it acted in coordination with the U.S. Attack contradicts POTUS extended deadline for diplomacy. Iran will exact HEAVY price for Israeli crimesUgly stuff. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I don't know how much anyone believes any of this. On the dawn of this war, Trump was saying they were planning for negotiations and Marco Rubio was going to the Middle East. That this news was also leaked suggests that it was deliberately leaked.There has been a kneejerk lower in oil on this but that's from the highs of the day. Just before the headlines, WTI was up $4.31 to $98.77 so this could just be an effort to cool pump prices for the weekend.The report says:The Trump administration is signaling to allies that it has no immediate plans for a ground invasion of Iran, even as it deploys thousands of troops to the Middle East, people familiar with the matter said.The people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, cautioned that President Donald Trump could change his mind at any moment or go ahead with an attack. They said the troops could serve a variety of roles, including to help with evacuations of American citizens but also to create a sense of strategic ambiguity about US intentions.A US Marine unit was pulled from Japan and should be arriving in the Middle East now while another was deployed from California and should arrive in mid-April or sooner.The ground troops could be a feint or could give Trump optionality if needed. At the moment, the US appears to be pursuing the negotiations route but it's not clear how willing Iran is to offer any concessions, and has now publicly said it wants control over Hormuz.Iran may also be seeing the rising price of oil and falling stock markets and calculating that could put additional pressure on Trump to give in to their demands. The S&P 500 was last down 1.1% and the Nasdaq hit a six-month low today.A separate report just crosses cites an Israeli media source and says operations may continue for another four weeks. That's a timeline that truly strains the global energy market should Hormuz remain closed, and given that it will take time to restart production. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.