Headlines:Dollar comes under pressure to start the new weekIran reaffirms that talks have not yet begun with the USChina retail sales disappoint in July, industrial output slows while new home prices extend declinesChina stats bureau says July economic activity affected by extreme weather conditions, among other factorsNo major US data releases but this week will feature a big test on consumer healthMarkets:AUD leads, USD lags on the dayEuropean indices mostly a little higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%WTI crude oil up 0.5% to $82.77Gold up 0.6% to $4,402US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 4.686%Bitcoin up 0.9% to $63,603It was a quieter session as markets continue to assess the Middle East situation, while also weighing up the Fed outlook ahead of Jackson Hole next week.There won't be any major US economic data releases on the calendar this week, so traders will be left to their own devices for the most part in figuring things out.The US-Iran stalemate continues but the dollar is seen moving lower on the day, helped by a couple of technical pushes. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.1590 after briefly touching a high of 1.1615 earlier. That comes with AUD/USD also moving to a fresh two-month high of 0.7125, up 0.6% on the day. Meanwhile, USD/JPY stays more muted and is down just 0.1% to 159.20.The overall risk mood is keeping steadier, with tech shares looking for a bounce to start the new week. European indices are lightly changed while S&P 500 futures are up 0.1%, with Nasdaq futures up 0.5%. This week, we will see major retailers in the US report earnings so that will be a checkpoint for the US consumer.Elsewhere, the bond market is not seeing too much action with 10-year yields in the US down just 1 bps to 4.686% - still keeping at the highs for the most part.In the commodities space, WTI crude oil is up 0.5% to $82.77 while gold is up 0.6% to $4,402 in keeping thereabouts with the same levels seen last week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Berkshire Hathaway Starts Putting Its Cash to Work: What Investors Can Learn From Greg Abel's StrategyBerkshire Hathaway is beginning to use more of its enormous cash reserve. During the second quarter, it bought $23.5 billion of stocks, sold $3.7 billion, and repurchased $4.5 billion of its own shares. This is a meaningful change in direction, but not an aggressive bet that the market can only go higher.Key takeaways for Berkshire Hathaway investorsBerkshire became a net buyer: It purchased about $19.8 billion more stocks than it sold, ending 14 consecutive quarters of net selling.Capital went into two places: Berkshire bought external stocks and repurchased its own shares, showing confidence in selected opportunities as well as its own valuation.The cash pile remains enormous: Cash and short-term holdings fell from $380.2 billion to $364.7 billion, a decline of only about 4.1%.Alphabet was the main public-equity signal: Berkshire increased its Alphabet stake by 83%, making it the conglomerate's third-largest listed stock holding.Do not over-attribute the trades: The filing does not identify who selected each investment. Warren Buffett said Alphabet was originally his idea, while Buffett and Greg Abel continue to consult on capital allocation.What changed in Berkshire Hathaway's latest filing?The individual stock purchases attract the headlines, but the larger story is a change in Berkshire's capital-allocation behavior.According to Berkshire's SEC filing, the disclosed portfolio reflects its US-listed holdings on June 30, 2026. Berkshire increased its Alphabet position to nearly 106 million shares, worth approximately $37.8 billion at quarter-end. It also increased its Delta Air Lines stake by 44% to approximately $5.4 billion.The following numbers provide a clearer picture of the quarter:What stands out to me is the combination. Buying external companies says, "We see selected opportunities." Repurchasing Berkshire shares says, "We also see value inside our own company." Doing both during the same quarter is a stronger capital-allocation signal than either action alone.Is Greg Abel abandoning Berkshire's cautious approach?No. The better interpretation is that Berkshire has moved from extreme patience to selective deployment.Its cash reserve declined by approximately $15.5 billion, from $380.2 billion to $364.7 billion. Put another way, Berkshire still retained roughly 96% of the previous quarter's cash reserve. That is not a wholesale change from caution to aggression.This distinction matters. A company with cash can deploy it through several channels:Invest in existing operating businesses.Acquire entire companies.Buy shares of publicly traded companies.Repurchase its own shares.Keep money in cash and short-term government securities while waiting.Berkshire used at least two of those channels more actively during the quarter. It also continued holding hundreds of billions of dollars in cash and US Treasury bills. That reserve provides liquidity for its insurance operations and gives Abel the ability to move quickly if markets fall or a large acquisition becomes available.What this means: Cash is not automatically "wasted" simply because it has not been invested in stocks. Short-term Treasury bills generate interest, while liquidity gives an investor the option to buy when better opportunities appear.Why ending 14 quarters of net selling mattersA single purchase can be opportunistic. A change following 14 consecutive net-selling quarters may indicate something broader: Berkshire found the balance between market valuations and expected future returns more attractive than it had for several years.That does not mean Abel or Buffett believes the entire stock market is cheap. Berkshire sold or reduced several holdings while adding to others. The pattern remains selective, not market-wide.This is an important lesson for newer investors. Professional capital allocation is rarely a choice between being "all in" or "all out." Berkshire can simultaneously:Build a major Alphabet position.Increase Delta and selected housing exposure.Reduce Bank of America and other holdings.Exit Constellation Brands.Buy back Berkshire shares.Preserve more than $360 billion of liquidity.The portfolio can therefore become more active without management making one giant prediction about the S&P 500.What does the Alphabet investment tell investors?Alphabet became Berkshire's third-largest listed stock holding, behind Apple and American Express. That makes it more than a small experimental position.The investment suggests that Berkshire sees attractive long-term value in Alphabet's competitive position, cash generation and AI infrastructure opportunity. However, it should not be treated as proof that Alphabet shares must rise from today's price.There are at least three reasons not to copy the trade automatically:The filing is delayed: Investors learned about the June 30 holdings on August 14.Berkshire's time horizon is unusually long: It can tolerate volatility that may be uncomfortable for a smaller investor.The purchase price matters: A good company can still be a poor investment if bought at an excessive valuation.The most useful question is not, "Should I buy because Berkshire bought?" It is, "What qualities did Berkshire probably find attractive, and do those qualities fit my own valuation, timeframe and risk limits?"What can a 13F filing tell investors, and what can it hide?A Form 13F is a quarterly snapshot of certain reportable US-listed securities held by a large investment manager. It is useful, but incomplete.This is why investors should read the 13F alongside Berkshire's quarterly report. The second-quarter report shows the cash, Treasury bill, operating-business and buyback context that the stock-holdings filing cannot provide on its own.Was this really Greg Abel's decision?The filing supports saying that Berkshire is deploying more capital during the Abel era. It does not support claiming that Abel personally selected every stock.According to Reuters, Abel oversees approximately 94% of Berkshire's stock holdings, while investment manager Ted Weschler handles the remainder. However, the filing does not identify the individual behind each transaction. Buffett has also said the Alphabet investment was initially his idea and that he and Abel consult on capital allocation.The fairest conclusion is therefore that Berkshire's capital-allocation machine is becoming more active under Abel's leadership, with Buffett still involved as chairman and adviser.What should Berkshire Hathaway investors watch next?The next several quarters will show whether this was a particularly attractive window or the beginning of a more durable shift.The most useful indicators are:The direction of the cash reserve: A continued decline would signal further deployment.Net stock purchases: Repeated net buying would be more meaningful than one active quarter.Share repurchases: Buybacks indicate whether management continues to see Berkshire trading below its estimate of intrinsic value.Large acquisitions: A full-company purchase could consume more capital than several quarters of public-stock buying.Operating performance: Capital allocation cannot fully compensate for weakness inside major businesses, including insurance.For Berkshire shareholders, the constructive scenario is that Abel finds attractive investments without sacrificing the financial strength that makes Berkshire unusual. The risk is that faster deployment produces lower future returns or that management pays too much during a strong market.For now, the evidence points to disciplined movement, not a spending spree. Berkshire has started opening the cash vault, but it has barely reduced the size of the vault itself.Frequently asked questions about Berkshire's cash pileHow much cash did Berkshire Hathaway hold at the end of the second quarter?Berkshire reported approximately $364.7 billion of cash and short-term holdings at June 30, 2026, down from $380.2 billion three months earlier.Which stock became Berkshire's third-largest listed holding?Alphabet became Berkshire's third-largest listed stock holding after the position increased by 83% to nearly 106 million shares, valued at about $37.8 billion at quarter-end.Does Berkshire's buying mean the entire market is undervalued?No. Berkshire bought selected stocks, sold or reduced others, repurchased its own shares and retained more than $360 billion of liquidity. The activity indicates selective opportunity rather than a blanket bullish call on the market.The lesson here is not that investors should automatically buy Alphabet because Berkshire bought it. That decision is yours, and investingLive does not provide personalized investment advice. The more useful habit is to follow what major investors such as Berkshire are doing through their 13F filings, then use those disclosures as a starting point for your own research. Ask whether the holding is new or an addition to an existing position, how large it is relative to the investor’s total portfolio, which other holdings were reduced or sold to fund it, and whether the purchase reflects long-term conviction or a more tactical opportunity. Investors should also remember that 13F filings are delayed and do not reveal the exact purchase price, the reasoning behind the trade or whether the position changed after quarter-end. Instead of simply copying a famous investor, study the qualities they may have identified, compare the company’s fundamentals and valuation with your own expectations, and decide whether the opportunity fits your timeframe and risk tolerance. The real value of a 13F is not the answer it gives you, but the better questions it teaches you to ask. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The UK’s artificial intelligence boom is becoming visible in the country’s economic growth data. Britain’s economy expanded by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026, slowing from 0.6% in the first quarter but proving more resilient than many had feared. More importantly for investors, the information and communications sector accounted for almost half of the expansion, making it the largest contributor among industries. Within the sector, computer programming, consultancy and related activities — areas increasingly intertwined with AI — jumped 3.7% quarter-on-quarter after rising 3.8% in the previous quarter. That suggests something more significant than a temporary technology-sector upswing may be taking place: AI is beginning to reshape the UK economy through investment before its full productivity benefits have even arrived.AI is becoming a capital-spending storyThe clearest evidence is emerging in business investment: UK spending on plant and machinery reached £22.1 billion in the second quarter, close to a one-off record recorded in early 2022. The latest increase was particularly notable for information and communications technology equipment, including computer hardware. That is important because AI is fundamentally more than a software story. Every increase in AI adoption requires computing power, servers, networking equipment, data centres, electricity and cooling infrastructure.The chain is relatively straightforward: more AI applications create demand for more computing capacity, which creates demand for chips and servers, which in turn requires more data centres, power infrastructure and specialised engineering. In other words, AI adoption is creating an investment cycle of its own.The UK is already seeing some of this effect in manufacturing. Output from British manufacturers of computing, electronic and optical products increased 10.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, making the industry the fastest-growing of the 13 manufacturing subsectors.For traders and investors, this broadens the AI opportunity. The beneficiaries may not be limited to software companies. Semiconductor designers, networking companies, data-centre operators, power providers, engineering firms and other infrastructure suppliers could all participate in the expansion. The question is therefore shifting from “who is building the best AI model?” to “who is supplying the infrastructure required to run the AI economy?”Britain does not need to build the next Nvidia to benefitThis is where the UK’s AI strategy becomes particularly interesting. Britain is unlikely to dominate every part of the AI value chain. The US has a substantial lead in frontier AI models and hyperscale cloud infrastructure, while East Asia occupies a critical position in semiconductor manufacturing. But Britain has a potentially valuable position elsewhere: chip design, research, advanced computing and specialised AI hardware.The government’s AI Hardware Plan, published in June, is explicitly designed to strengthen Britain’s capabilities in chips and semiconductor technologies underpinning AI. It aims to ensure that more of the economic value generated by AI and computing infrastructure is captured through UK-designed technologies.The government has also highlighted the scale of the opportunity with estimates that the global AI-chip market could reach $1 trillion in the early 2030s according to McKinsey. Capturing just 5% of that market would potentially generate $50 billion of revenue for the UK, alongside tens of thousands of highly paid technology jobs. That makes companies such as Arm and emerging AI-chip developers particularly relevant to the longer-term investment story. The government has specifically identified Arm, Fractile and OLIX among British companies developing technologies for the next generation of AI infrastructure.The opportunity is therefore less about Britain producing its own version of OpenAI and more about becoming an important supplier to the rapidly expanding AI infrastructure ecosystem. Britain does not necessarily need to win the AI model race to win part of the AI infrastructure race.From AI adopter to AI producerThat distinction is also behind the government’s push for greater technological sovereignty. The objective is gradually shifting from simply encouraging British businesses and public services to use AI towards ensuring that more of the underlying technology is developed, financed and commercialised domestically.The government’s AI Hardware Plan is structured around innovation, skills, procurement and investment, with international partnerships intended to help British companies develop and scale. It also includes support through a £500 million Sovereign AI Fund and a new deep-tech hardware venture fund backed by up to £150 million from the British Business Bank.This is an important development for investors because it turns AI from a technology theme into an industrial-policy theme. If successful, the UK could move progressively through four stages: 1. AI consumer, 2. AI adopter, 3. AI infrastructure provider, and 4. AI technology producer.The economic payoff becomes much larger at the final two stages. Instead of simply spending money on American AI platforms, Britain could capture revenue through chip design, intellectual property, infrastructure, exports and high-value employment. That is the strategic rationale behind supporting domestic companies such as OLIX, which is developing AI chips designed to be faster, cheaper and more energy efficient.The challenge, however, is not simply inventing the technology. Britain has historically demonstrated considerable strength in scientific research and technological innovation, but commercialising those breakthroughs and scaling companies globally has been more difficult. The success of the UK’s AI strategy will ultimately be measured by whether promising British technologies remain British economic assets as they scale.The data-centre boom could be the next major catalystAnother part of the AI story deserves greater attention from investors: data centres. The Bank of England says the UK has the largest data-centre pipeline in Europe and expects significant investment to be required to deliver it. If those projects are completed, the central bank says they could support UK growth through their aggregate impact on investment. That creates another layer of potential beneficiaries: the AI investment chain extends from semiconductor designers to data-centre construction, electricity generation, grid connections, cooling systems, telecommunications and engineering.This is why the UK’s AI opportunity should not be viewed purely through the lens of technology stocks. For equity investors, the second-order beneficiaries may ultimately prove just as important as the headline AI names. It also creates a potentially attractive way of tracking the AI cycle through traditional economic data. Continued growth in ICT investment, semiconductor output, data-centre construction and electricity demand could provide tangible evidence that AI spending is becoming embedded in the wider economy.The biggest test is still productivityThere is, however, an important reason for investors to remain cautious: AI-related investment is not the same thing as AI-driven productivity.Companies can spend billions on servers, chips and data centres without immediately producing more output per employee. The initial economic impact can therefore be positive because investment itself contributes to GDP, even before businesses have demonstrated that the technology can generate sufficient returns.The Bank of England has explicitly highlighted this uncertainty. It sees significant potential for AI to raise productivity and support long-term growth, but notes that the scale and timing of those gains — and companies’ ability to monetise them — remain uncertain. That creates two very different investment scenarios:In the bullish scenario: today’s AI capex eventually translates into higher productivity, lower operating costs, stronger corporate margins and faster potential GDP growth. Britain could simultaneously benefit from domestic adoption and from exporting technologies used throughout the global AI ecosystem.In the bearish scenario: Britain could end up funding a substantial AI infrastructure buildout while the highest-value intellectual property and economic rents remain concentrated elsewhere.There is also a financial risk. The Bank of England has warned that AI-related companies are increasingly turning to debt and other external financing to fund infrastructure, with the pace of investment accelerating rapidly during the first half of 2026. That means AI is becoming not only a technology and macroeconomic story, but increasingly a credit-market story as well.What investors should watch nextFor traders and investors, the next phase of the UK AI story can be tracked through 5 key indicators:First, ICT and computer-hardware investment will show whether the current capex surge is becoming structural.Second, information and communications output will reveal whether the recent acceleration in programming, consultancy and related activities can continue.Third, investors should monitor UK semiconductor investment and commercialisation, particularly the ability of domestic companies to move from promising technology to scalable exports.Fourth, data-centre construction and power infrastructure could become increasingly important as AI computing demand expands.Finally, the most important confirmation signal will be UK productivity growth. If productivity eventually accelerates, the AI story will have moved beyond an investment boom and into a genuine transformation of the UK’s productive capacity.That is the transition investors should ultimately care about.The UK’s AI opportunity is therefore bigger than whether Britain can produce the next Nvidia or OpenAI. The country may already be entering the first phase of an AI-driven investment cycle, with the effects showing up in computer hardware, technology services and advanced manufacturing.The harder question is whether Britain can capture enough of the value created by that investment. For now, the UK’s AI boom is showing up in capital spending and economic activity. The next phase will determine whether that spending becomes productivity, exports and sustainable growth.Sources: ONS, Bank of England, Reuters, GOV.UK, McKinsey, Yahoo FinanceThe information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Forecasts are not guarantees. Rates may change. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions may vary. Platforms’ tools do not guarantee success. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

No talks have begun with the USAnd they won't because of US violations of memorandum of understandingThere is no mention of a 60-day deadline in the text of the memorandum of understandingIran will never formulate policies under pressure or time limitsThe agreement stipulated a 60-day period for two main issuesThat being "lifting sanctions" and "nuclear issues", which could be extendedThe violations of the memorandum of understanding mean 60-day timeline became irrelevantThere is plenty of talk about the ceasefire agreement and/or memorandum of understanding expiring over the weekend. Yes, the one that was signed back in late June. But as Iran is making it clear, that 60-day timeline is no longer relevant as it was only after a few weeks after the signing that the agreement fell apart. It was pretty clear cut at the time that everything had fell apart but still, there are some parties trying to tie this all into a big thing.The agreement at the time was supposed to outline the conditions that must be upheld for the next 60 days so that nuclear talks can take place. And those conditions included Iran "reopening" the Strait of Hormuz, the US lifting its naval blockade, Iran seeing some sanctions being lifted, and a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.As mentioned back then, it was a case that everything would fall apart if just one of those conditions failed to be upheld. And as we all know, it was always just going to be a matter of time. So, it was proven to be as well.Fast forward to today, we're pretty much sitting back at a place where we were back in June before the agreement was signed. And we're still no closer to any agreement, especially on nuclear talks, than we were back then too. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The spokesperson of China's statistics bureau is out saying that July economic activity was affected by external uncertainties and also extreme weather conditions, among other factors, amid the poor report here.Adding that Beijing will step up counter-cyclical policy adjustments and expand domestic demand as part of efforts to bolster economic activity.It is interesting that they put the timing of the release to right after the market close but then leave it to the statistics bureau to offer up commentary on making effort to improve domestic demand. Typically, you'd see the economy and/or commerce ministry do that. And the timing of the daily briefings do line up, but yeah.In any case, China will continue to try and talk the talk in bolstering domestic demand conditions but things don't look bright to start the third quarter of the year. And that follows from the already markedly weakening economic growth seen in the second quarter already.The credit data from last week just piles on top of the one today: China new bank loans contract again in July, the second time this year This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The slate of July economic data:July retail sales +0.6% vs +1.5% y/y expectedPrior +1.0%July industrial output +4.5% vs +4.8% y/y expectedPrior +5.3%July fixed-asset investment -6.7% vs -6.0% y/y expectedPrior -5.7%July property investment -19.2% y/yPrior -18.0%July new home prices -0.1% m/mPrior -0.1%July new home prices -3.2% y/yPrior -3.3%Soft numbers all around and they are pretty bad, even for recent bad-news-from-China standards. The deepening declines in fixed-asset and property investments continue to signal that the overall market is struggling hard. And even the supposed one bright spot i.e. retail sales was very much a disappointment. That is despite Beijing's efforts to prop up activity through the likes of consumer trade-in programmes.As mentioned earlier, domestic demand conditions remain in the dumps and the data above continues to underscore that sentiment for the most part.It's a poor set of numbers all in all, which is arguably the reason why Beijing did not want them released during market hours. Chinese indices closed over 1% higher today to roughly one-month highs but with data like this, the gains today may also be in part due to some buying by the 'plunge protection team'. That to try and make things look nicer and distract from the terrible report above.The data above points to further trouble on the ground in China to start Q3 2027, which follows from a poor showing in the previous quarter. For some context, China's Q2 GDP saw a 4.3% year-on-year expansion - the weakest since 2022 - and missed on expectations of 4.5%. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The week ahead will not feature any major economic data releases in the US. That unless you want to count the Philly Fed manufacturing index and the weekly jobless claims report. But even so, there will be a lot of focus on what is happening in the US - in particular Wall Street.After big tech earnings helped to salvage things in the first half of August, it's now over major retail giants to take over next. And this will offer much insight on the overall health of the US consumer with discretionary spending and/or inflation fatigue coming under heavy focus.Here's the list of names to note:18 August (Tuesday): Home Depot19 August (Wednesday): Target, Lowe's, TJX20 August (Thursday): WalmartAs usual, Walmart will be the main one to watch on consumer behaviour patterns alongside offering up an indication of how the US consumer is holding up at the moment. Besides that, Target will also be a focus to take stock of discretionary spending and how middle-class consumers are balancing their expenditure and budget.Apart from consumption behaviours, there will also be heavy scrutiny on the update from major retailers on supply chain disruptions/costs as well as inventory management. All of that will play into the inflation debate, so it is one to be wary about.But overall, these earnings have to be paired with the "hard" US economic data that we saw from last week. That being the CPI, PPI, and retail sales data.I would argue that the earnings may not be too impactful in general but after the softer retail sales numbers from last week, it will be important to see if that is anything more than just a minor hiccup for the US consumer. In turn, that will also factor into play in setting the tone ahead of the next Fed meeting in September. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is perhaps just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for USD/JPY at the 159.00 level. But as mentioned before with expiries for the currency pair, it is all about intervention risks right now.The psychological game is what is dictating the narrative for USD/JPY and that isn't going to change this week. Sure, the dollar is on the softer side and may be running into a bit of trouble as noted here. However, the yen's plight is also still being prolonged amid a lack of change in the fundamental drivers.So among all dollar pairs, USD/JPY is one that is least likely to benefit from any dollar pullbacks.While buyers are continuing to poke and prod, they aren't going too far to pushing the agenda in testing waters near the 160 level. That remains the key psychological barrier at this stage, where Tokyo and perhaps US officials may feel more compelled to step into the market again.As such, we're seeing price action keep around the 159 level for almost a week already. The near-term limit appears to be around 159.50 before buyers step back but they seem willing to be dipping their toes in the water again around 158.50-70. The 200-hour moving average at 158.71 will be a key near-term level to be mindful of just in case.Taking everything above into consideration, the expiries today may not be all too much of a factor for USD/JPY besides offering the potential of a minor pull influence.Besides that, major currencies will be eyeing dollar sentiment as the more important driver of price movements for the session ahead.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In case you missed it earlier: China delays July economic data release to late afternoon slotThe key figures will be for industrial output, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and property prices. All of this put together will offer up a picture of how the economic momentum in China is holding up at the start of the third quarter this year.What is interesting is that instead of delaying it by a day or anything, they are deciding to move it to 0700 GMT instead.This typically coincides with speech timings for China's economy, finance, and/or commerce ministry. That is when they will typically go about their daily remarks and speak about relevant and pertinent issues from day to day. So, do they see a need to justify/defend something here?What is also interesting is that the timing of the data release will also coincide with the close of China's stock market hours.So, is it all planned in a way so as to not disrupt the market flow and potentially the reaction to the numbers? Or is China cooking up something entirely different? It remains to be seen.In terms of data expectations, industrial production and fixed-asset investment are estimated to weaken slightly in July. The former recorded a +5.3% y/y reading in June but is expected to fall to +4.8% y/y in July. Meanwhile, the latter was seen at -5.7% y/y in June and is expected to decline further to -6.0% y/y in July.It is only retail sales that is expected to offer a more resilient showing, with the estimate seen at +1.5% y/y in July compared to the +1.0% y/y reading in June. That being said, it likely owes to substantiative measures by Beijing such as consumer trade-in programmes. So, it's not a clear signal that domestic demand is keeping more robust.In terms of domestic demand conditions, the picture painted by new bank loans offers a better indictment of China's current situation. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The dollar is trading down as we get into the new week, continuing the drop from Friday.Even as oil prices continue to keep in the $80s and Treasury yields are remaining somewhat sticky, the dollar is starting to come under renewed pressure now. The charts are pretty telling about the current predicament for the US currency. And it's all to do with the Fed.[EUR/USD daily chart]The most notable chart among dollar pairs right now is the EUR/USD. The pair is now moving back above the 100-day moving average (red line), after the Friday attempt to break the key level fell a little short.But as we get into the new week, buyers are seeing renewed vigour and we're also seeing a test of the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing lower from April to June at 1.1586.If buyers can hold above both the key technical points, that will be a big win in establishing a stronger upside bias for the pair in the coming days. Besides the Fed minutes, there won't be all too much else to distract traders this week; barring any major US-Iran surprises.As such, that could afford some technical breathing room to the upside with the 200-day moving average (blue line) only seen at 1.1627 currently.Adding to that, we're also starting to see AUD/USD claw its way back up to a fresh two-month high:[AUD/USD daily chart]Buyers have been trying to shrug off the 100-day moving average (red line) here too, especially in the past two weeks. There have been some pushing and pulling but ultimately, the move higher today looks to be one that signifies that price action is "coming up for air".So, that could free up the path for a further push towards a test of 0.7200 next.Besides that, we're also seeing GBP/USD move up to 1.3550 levels with the July high of 1.3558 in focus. A firm break above that frees up the path towards testing the May highs next around the 1.3600-50 region.After weeks of anticipation and wondering about the Fed outlook, it appears that traders are starting to lean more towards a less hawkish Fed for September.Before the US CPI report last week, the odds of a move next month was still somewhat of a coin flip. But now, we're seeing traders price in just ~29% odds of rate hike with ~71% odds of no change.Even looking to year-end, traders are no longer pricing in a full 25 bps rate hike by the Fed for the remainder of 2026. The next full 25 bps rate hike is only priced for January next year with just ~36 bps of rate hikes priced in by June next year.And with little else standing in the way between now and Jackson Hole next week, this narrative could run for a bit more; all else being equal. So, just be wary of that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

China's delayed July data looms as markets eye demand and PBOC's yuan stanceBloomberg says dark trade oil shuttles are the reason Iran war hasn't spiked oil pricesBig Tech's AI spending is $3 trillion bigger than balance sheets showYen edges higher as traders push back Fed rate hike bets, shrug off soft GDPSingapore NODX growth holds above 20% for fourth straight month in JulyPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7873 (vs. estimate at 6.7382)Japan Q2 GDP growth undershoots forecasts, complicating BOJ's hike timelineChina's Securities Daily warns against chasing gold at current highsUK data - Housing slump and hiring freeze cloud outlookMore NZ data: Retail card spending (July) +1.3% m/m (prior -1.4%)Bessent eyes Iran economic squeeze, but Chinese teapot ties limit optionsNZ services sector holds above breakeven for second month as PMI eases to 50.6 (prior 50.9)China delays July economic data release to late afternoon slotTrump orders cuts to South Korea drills, links move to cost of Iran warGoldman Sachs: labour market "not that interesting" as inflation dominates Fed debateOil- weekend recap & what's ahead: Iran vows to keep Hormuz shut, Trump tells Americans to accept high gas pricesMonday open indicative forex prices, 17 August 2026 - little change from late FridayWeekend:Bitcoin analysis shows what bulls need to do next to end this bearish 2026Stock earnings: 3 Key lessons for investors and tradersWhy Retail Traders Are Rethinking Traditional Prop FirmsFriday:investingLive Americas FX news wrap 14 Aug: Stocks finish mixed as yields rise and the dollar fallsSummary:Oil traded in a narrow range as US-Iran talks remained stalled and Hormuz shipping continued at a trickle, with no tankers moving oil on Friday.Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will stay shut until the US "accepts defeat," while Trump told Americans over the weekend to expect higher gasoline prices.IRGC Political Deputy Yadollah Javani said Iran's actions so far have been defensive but could become offensive, while Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that any reopening of the strait remains on Iran's terms.Japan's Q2 GDP grew a weaker than expected 0.3% q/q (1.1% annualised), but the yen firmed toward 159 to the dollar as traders instead focused on fading Fed rate hike expectations.The dollar broadly lost ground following last week's data flow, including a soft US retail sales print on Friday.Singapore's July non-oil domestic exports rose 24.2% y/y, just shy of forecast, extending a fourth straight month of growth above 20% on AI-linked electronics demand.Asia-Pacific stocks traded mixed in quiet holiday-thinned trade, with South Korean markets closed and uncertainty building with the expiry of the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire.Oil prices moved in a narrow range between small gains and losses on Monday, with US-Iran talks still stalled and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continuing only in trickle volumes. No tankers moved oil through the strait on Friday, according to tracking firms, and negotiations showed no sign of resuming as the new week began.Tehran maintained its hard line over the weekend. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Saturday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Washington accepts what he characterised as its defeat, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran had not yet decided whether to resume talks with the US and set conditions for shipping to resume through the waterway. IRGC Political Deputy Yadollah Javani said Iran's actions to date have been defensive in nature but could take on an offensive character going forward. President Trump, addressing a rally on Friday, said Americans should be prepared to accept somewhat higher gasoline prices and floated the possibility of eventually declaring the strait US territory.In Asia, Japan's economy expanded 0.3% quarter on quarter in the April to June period, well below the 0.5% forecast, with annualised growth of 1.1% missing expectations of 2.0% as weak capital expenditure and flat consumption weighed on domestic demand. Despite the soft print, the yen edged higher against the dollar, rising to just under 159, a second consecutive day of gains, as traders focused more on pushed-back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year than on the domestic data. The move came alongside broader dollar weakness following last week's data flow, including a soft US retail sales report on Friday.Singapore's non-oil domestic exports rose 24.2% year on year in July, just below the 25% forecast, marking a fourth consecutive month of growth above 20% as AI-linked electronics demand continued to offset weaker non-electronics shipments.Asia-Pacific equities traded mixed following a quiet weekend for macro newsflow, with South Korean markets closed for a public holiday and investors weighing uncertainty as the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire period approaches its expiry.---Note, still to come - China data due at 3pm beijing time, delayed today:7:00 GMT (8 hours behind Beijing) 3:00 a.m. US Eastern Time (EDT) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The unusual afternoon timing already flagged for Monday's release means Chinese risk pricing will be concentrated later in the Asian session than usual, leaving European markets to open without full clarity on the data and adding a layer of positioning risk around the open. Weak July credit figures released ahead of the activity data reinforce the case for a soft print, with new yuan loans contracting and both aggregate financing and loan growth slowing, all pointing to still-tepid demand for credit even as authorities continue rolling out consumer trade-in support. Any confirmation of broader deceleration in industrial output or investment would sharpen focus on whether the PBOC leans toward further easing, while also testing how comfortable policymakers remain with recent CNY strength, a key swing factor for regional currencies and commodities tied to Chinese demand such as copper and crude.--- Soft credit numbers are raising the stakes for China's delayed July activity data, with investors watching for signs Beijing is ready to ease further.Summary:China's National Bureau of Statistics shifted the release of July activity data, including industrial output, retail sales, fixed asset investment and property prices, to 3pm Beijing time on Monday, an unusual scheduling change first reported by Bloomberg.The delay pushes the data into the Asian afternoon session, meaning European markets will open before the figures cross, adding to positioning uncertainty around the open.Fixed asset investment is expected to stay subdued, weighed down by continued softness in the property sector, following a weak second quarter GDP print.New yuan loans fell by 340 billion yuan in July, while growth in aggregate financing slowed to 7.4% and RMB loan growth moderated to 5.2%, reinforcing expectations of soft credit demand.Key questions for markets are whether domestic demand is beginning to stabilise and whether the PBOC remains comfortable with further CNY strength.A downside surprise in the activity data could weigh on regional risk sentiment and pressure Asian currencies closely linked to China's growth outlook, while a confirmed slowdown could raise the odds of further PBOC easing. China's National Bureau of Statistics has pushed back the release of its July activity data to 3pm Beijing time on Monday, an unusual scheduling shift that has drawn attention from investors already bracing for a soft set of numbers. As reported by Bloomberg, the delay pushes the data drop into the Asian afternoon trading window, meaning European markets will open before the figures cross and North American markets will still be in their pre-market hours, adding an extra layer of positioning risk around the open.The package due for release covers industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment and residential property prices, all closely watched gauges of how China's economy is faring in the second half of the year following a weak second quarter GDP print. Fixed asset investment is expected to remain subdued, weighed down by the ongoing downturn in the property sector, while industrial output is projected to show some deceleration from June's pace.The data lands against a backdrop of softening credit conditions. New yuan loans fell by 340 billion yuan in July, while growth in aggregate financing eased to 7.4% and RMB loan growth moderated to 5.2%, both pointing to still-fragile demand for credit even as authorities continue to roll out consumer trade-in incentives aimed at supporting retail spending. Retail sales are expected to hold up relatively better than other components, helped by that targeted government support, though the broader picture remains one of uneven momentum across the economy.The two central questions for markets are whether China's domestic demand is beginning to find a floor, and whether the People's Bank of China remains comfortable allowing further yuan strength given the softer growth backdrop. A confirmed broader slowdown could raise the odds of additional PBOC easing, including a cut to reserve requirements or benchmark interest rates, to keep full-year growth targets within reach. Given China's outsized role in global demand for industrial commodities, any downside surprise in Monday's figures carries the potential to ripple into copper and crude oil pricing, regional equity indexes and Asian currencies more broadly, all of which remain closely tied to signals on the health of Chinese growth.3:00 p.m. Beijing Time = 07:00 GMT (8 hours behind Beijing) = 3:00 a.m. US Eastern Time (EDT) (12 hours behind Beijing).The traditional morning release slot (typically 10:00 a.m. Beijing time) corresponds to 02:00 GMT / 10:00 p.m. US Eastern Time (previous day). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The clandestine shuttle trade helps explain why Brent has held broadly in an $80 to $90 range through August rather than testing the $150 levels once feared at the war's outset, effectively acting as an informal supply buffer the market has come to depend on without fully pricing the risk behind it. Any meaningful slowdown in these flows, whether from escalating attacks or insurers pulling back cover, would remove that buffer quickly and could reintroduce the kind of upside price risk markets assumed away months ago. The apparent build-up of idle Saudi tanker capacity off Oman also hints at a potential further supply cushion if Riyadh follows the UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait into the shuttle trade, a development worth watching for any signs it's crystallising.---This is via a Bloomberg (gated) piece. I'd be more pointing to oil reserve releases and the role of China, but here is Bloomberg's argument for pondering.  Markets have quietly been relying on a shadow shipping trade to keep oil prices in check, and few outside the industry seem to appreciate how much weight it's carrying.Summary:A covert oil shuttle trade through the Strait of Hormuz is helping keep global prices in check, transferring barrels onto tankers off the coast of Oman to avoid the riskiest stretch of the waterway.Volumes are running above the roughly 4 million barrels a day markets had estimated, though exact figures are difficult to track given vessels are deliberately obscuring their locations.US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said 9 million barrels a day crossed Hormuz in the prior week, nearly half of pre-war volumes of around 20 million barrels a day.The trade has helped keep Brent trading between $80 and $90 a barrel through much of August, far below the $150 some had feared at the war's outset.The UAE's Adnoc has sold around 135 million barrels via this route despite 23 of its vessels being attacked, resulting in one fatality and 20 injuries, while Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait have also shuttled cargoes out.Saudi Arabia has so far avoided large-scale shuttling of its own crude but is showing early signs of preparing to join, with 16 supertankers positioned off Oman and more en route. There is a story the oil market has not been telling itself clearly enough this year: prices held together through a Middle East war not because the danger passed, but because a covert shipping trade absorbed it on the market's behalf.Since the Iran war broke out, producers across the Gulf have been quietly moving crude out of the Strait of Hormuz by transferring barrels onto tankers waiting off the coast of Oman, often with transponders switched off to avoid drawing attention. It is not a small operation. Volumes are running above the roughly 4 million barrels a day markets had assumed, according to people familiar with the shipments, and satellite data shows the number of vessels gathered off Oman has surged to around 150 from just 40 in January. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright's disclosure last week that 9 million barrels a day crossed Hormuz, nearly half of pre-war volumes, should have been treated as a bigger story than it was.This matters because the alternative counterfactual was genuinely alarming. Traders were bracing for oil near $150 a barrel when the conflict began. Instead, Brent has spent much of August boxed in between $80 and $90, a range that reflects real supply discipline rather than luck. Some credit is due to stockpile releases, pipeline workarounds and softer global demand. But the shuttle trade deserves recognition as a central pillar of that stability, one that has operated largely out of public view.It has not come without cost. The UAE's Adnoc alone has had 23 vessels attacked while transiting Hormuz, resulting in one death and 20 injuries among crew, even as it has pushed ahead with selling roughly 135 million barrels through the route. Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait have found similar, if smaller, outlets. Seafarers have died. Oil spills have appeared in satellite imagery with no clear origin, a quiet reminder of what clandestine trade looks like when something goes wrong. The people actually running this trade describe it plainly: this is a dark trade, and not every ship owner is willing to take the risk.What should give markets pause is how fragile this arrangement really is. It depends on continued military tolerance for the risk, on insurers staying willing to underwrite it, and on producers absorbing losses that would be unthinkable in peacetime. Saudi Arabia's apparent preparations to join the shuttle trade, with over a dozen supertankers now massing off Oman, suggest the practice is becoming more entrenched rather than winding down. That should be read less as reassurance and more as a sign of how normalized this workaround has become. Markets have priced in calm. The people keeping that calm intact are running a considerably higher risk than the oil price curve currently reflects. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The scale of off-balance-sheet AI commitments adds a layer of hidden leverage that traditional valuation metrics may be understating, a risk factor equity investors are likely to price in more explicitly if AI demand growth shows any signs of slowing. With Alphabet and Amazon already posting negative free cash flow, further reliance on capital markets to fund these obligations could pressure credit spreads and weigh on sentiment toward the broader AI infrastructure trade. The disclosures are likely to sharpen scrutiny of individual balance sheets heading into upcoming earnings, particularly for companies whose purchase and lease commitments are growing fastest relative to reported capex.--- Big Tech's real AI spending bill is running trillions of dollars ahead of what shows up on the balance sheet.Summary:Nine major tech companies, including Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle and Nvidia, carry roughly $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments tied mostly to AI infrastructure, according to a Wall Street Journal (gated) analysis.That figure dwarfs the roughly $600 billion in traditional capex these companies reported over the past year and is about triple their outstanding lease and long-term borrowing obligations.Uncommenced lease obligations, including Meta's massive Hyperion data centre project in Louisiana, totalled $1.2 trillion, roughly four times higher than a year earlier.Chip and hardware purchase commitments across the companies stood at $1.9 trillion, with Alphabet's commitments alone reaching $811 billion as of June, more than double the level reported three months prior.These obligations largely remain off balance sheet under current accounting rules until leases begin or products are delivered, making the companies' true financial exposure harder for investors to assess.Alphabet and Amazon have both recently reported negative free cash flow, with commitments of this scale seen as adding risk if AI demand fails to meet expectations. Big Tech's disclosed capital expenditure on artificial intelligence infrastructure understates the true scale of its financial commitments by roughly $3 trillion, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of securities filings from nine major technology companies. The gap stems from massive lease and purchase obligations tied to data centres and chips that remain off company balance sheets under current accounting rules.The companies examined, including Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, Nvidia, Broadcom, SpaceX and Advanced Micro Devices, reported combined traditional capex of about $600 billion over the past year, a figure dwarfed by their off-balance-sheet exposure. Obligations tied to leases that have not yet begun totalled $1.2 trillion, roughly four times the level disclosed a year earlier, while purchase commitments for hardware and other goods stood at $1.9 trillion. Under accounting rules, these obligations typically stay off the balance sheet until rent payments start or products are delivered.Meta's Hyperion data centre project in Louisiana illustrates how such deals accumulate hidden exposure. The company signed a lease with an initial four-year term and options to extend for up to two decades, guaranteeing bondholders will be made whole if it exits early, but because it considers that scenario unlikely, no liability appears on its books. Alphabet's own commitments have grown especially fast, reaching $811 billion as of June, more than double the $332 billion reported just three months earlier, spanning technical infrastructure, inventory and energy agreements that in some cases extend to 2054.The implications cut both ways. Optimists point to surging AI demand and hardware shortages as evidence that future revenue will comfortably cover these obligations. But the commitments are largely non-cancellable regardless of whether that demand materialises, and some companies once seen as having fortress balance sheets have needed to tap capital markets more frequently. Alphabet and Amazon have both recently posted negative free cash flow, meaning spending already exceeds operating cash flow before accounting for these additional trillions in future obligations.Morgan Stanley accounting analysts warned in April that the growing size and complexity of these arrangements is making it increasingly difficult for investors to gauge the true leverage of the companies involved, a concern likely to weigh more heavily on markets if AI infrastructure spending continues to outpace revenue growth. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.PBOC injected CNY 565.5bn via overnight reverse reposzero 7-day reverse repoEarlier:China's Securities Daily warns against chasing gold at current highsChina delays July economic data release to late afternoon slot This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The yen's modest advance despite a clear GDP miss underscores how currency direction is currently being driven more by shifting Fed expectations than by domestic Japanese data, with fed funds futures now implying a two-thirds chance the Fed holds rates next month. That repricing of US policy risk is doing more to narrow the yield differential than anything coming out of Tokyo, leaving the yen's gains modest and still contained within its recent range rather than signalling a decisive break. The soft GDP print itself is unlikely to alter the BOJ's own tightening path given underlying inflation remains well above target, meaning the policy divergence story between a cautious Fed and a still-hawkish BOJ continues to underpin the currency, even if Monday's move was driven mostly from the US side of the equation.---Earlier:Japan Q2 GDP growth undershoots forecasts, complicating BOJ's hike timeline--- The yen is gaining more from fading Fed rate hike bets than from anything happening in Japan's own economy right now.Summary:The yen strengthened 0.2% against the US dollar to 159.055, a second consecutive day of modest gains, though it remained within its trading range of the past week.The move came even as Japan's Q2 GDP data disappointed, with the economy expanding an annualised 1.1% against expectations of 2.0%, and quarter on quarter growth of 0.3% versus 0.5% expected.Fed funds futures now imply a 66.9% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates at its next meeting, with traders pushing back the timing of any further hike this year.Growth in Japan was held back by a 1.2% quarterly decline in capital expenditure against expectations for a 0.4% gain, and flat private consumption versus a forecast 0.5% rise, as higher prices weighed on household spending.External demand outperformed, contributing 0.5 percentage points to GDP against an expected 0.3, supported by a yen that remains historically weak.Analysts at Capital Economics (cited by Reuters) described the GDP details as mixed, noting the government's efforts to limit pass-through from higher energy costs and a jump in government consumption pointing to early effects from Takaichi's expansionary fiscal policy.The GDP deflator held at 2.6% year on year in Q2, well above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, a factor still expected to support the case for a BOJ rate hike in September. The yen edged higher against the dollar on Monday, largely shrugging off a weaker than expected Japanese GDP report as traders instead focused on pushing back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. The currency rose 0.2% to 159.0 (just under) per dollar, a second consecutive day of modest gains, though it remained firmly within the trading range it has held over the past week.The move came despite data showing Japan's economy expanded at an annualised pace of just 1.1% in the April to June quarter, well short of the 2.0% rate economists had expected, with quarter on quarter growth of 0.3% also missing the 0.5% forecast. Growth was weighed down by a 1.2% quarterly decline in capital expenditure, a sharp reversal from the 0.4% gain that had been anticipated, alongside flat private consumption against expectations for a 0.5% increase, as elevated prices continued to weigh on household spending. External demand was a bright spot, contributing 0.5 percentage points to GDP versus an expected 0.3, a trend analysts expect to persist given the yen remains historically weak and continues to support Japanese exporters.Despite the soft headline numbers, the miss is unlikely to derail the Bank of Japan's expected rate hike in September, given the GDP deflator held at 2.6% year on year in the second quarter, comfortably above the central bank's 2% inflation target. Analysts at Capital Economics characterised the details of the report as a mixed bag, noting that the government has so far limited the pass-through from higher energy costs into the broader economy, while a jump in government consumption suggests Prime Minister Takaichi's expansionary fiscal policies are beginning to have an effect.Instead of reacting primarily to the domestic data, currency markets appeared more focused on the shifting US rate outlook, with fed funds futures now pricing a 66.9% probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at its next meeting. That repricing has done more to narrow the yield gap between the two economies than Monday's GDP report, leaving the yen's advance driven largely by developments on the American side of the equation. With the BOJ still seen as leaning toward further tightening given inflation running well above target, the broader policy divergence between a increasingly cautious Fed and a still hawkish Bank of Japan looks set to remain the dominant driver of yen direction in the sessions ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The July print, though a touch below the Reuters poll median, extends a run of exceptionally strong export growth that has already prompted a sharp upgrade to Singapore's official 2026 trade forecast, reinforcing the view that AI-linked electronics demand remains the dominant driver of regional trade momentum. With shipments broadening across nine of the top ten export markets rather than being concentrated in one corridor, the data supports the case that Singapore's export strength is structural rather than a single-quarter blip, a useful data point for traders positioning around broader Asian growth exposure. The result also arrives against the backdrop of last week's upgraded GDP and export forecasts, meaning today's figure is more confirmatory than surprising, likely limiting any outsized reaction in the Singapore dollar. The ongoing divergence between resilient electronics shipments and softer non-electronics trade remains worth watching as a gauge of how narrowly based the current export boom is.--- Singapore's export engine keeps running hot on AI-linked demand, even if July's pace came in just shy of expectations.Earlier:Singapore doubles 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5% on tech cycle upgrade---Summary:Singapore's non-oil domestic exports rose 24.2% year on year in July, close to the Reuters poll forecast of 25% and marking a fourth consecutive month of growth above 20%.Robust AI-related demand for electronics drove the gain, even as non-electronics shipments declined over the same period.Exports rose to nine of Singapore's top ten markets, led by shipments to the United States, China and Taiwan, according to Enterprise Singapore.The release follows Enterprise Singapore's upgrade last week to its full-year 2026 non-oil domestic export forecast, raised to 14% to 16% growth from a prior 3% to 5%.It also follows last week's Q2 GDP data showing the economy grew 5.9% year on year, prompting the Trade Ministry to lift its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.5% to 5.5% from 2.0% to 4.0%.Officials have attributed the improved outlook to a stronger than expected AI investment boom offsetting a less severe than feared drag from the Middle East conflict. Singapore's non-oil domestic exports rose 24.2% year on year in July, government data showed on Monday, extending a run of growth above 20% to a fourth consecutive month even as the reading came in just shy of the 25% median forecast in a Reuters poll. The growth was driven largely by robust AI-related demand for electronics, which continued to outweigh a decline in shipments of non-electronics goods.Enterprise Singapore said exports rose to nine of the city-state's top ten markets in July, with the United States, China and Taiwan leading the gains. The broad-based nature of the increase suggests the current export strength is not confined to a single trading partner, lending support to the view that AI-linked demand is lifting Singapore's trade performance across multiple corridors rather than in isolated pockets.The July figure lands just a week after Enterprise Singapore sharply upgraded its full-year 2026 forecast for non-oil domestic export growth, lifting it to a range of 14% to 16% from a prior estimate of just 3% to 5%. That revision came alongside separate data showing Singapore's economy grew 5.9% year on year in the second quarter, beating both the Reuters poll estimate and the earlier official advance reading, prompting the Trade Ministry to raise its full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% to 5.5% from 2.0% to 4.0%.Officials have attributed the broader upgrade to two offsetting forces: a global AI investment boom that has proven considerably stronger than expected, and an impact from the Middle East conflict that has so far been less severe than initially feared. The improved outlook has applied specifically to AI and technology linked sectors of the economy, while those more directly exposed to Middle East related supply disruptions have continued to lag.Taken together with last week's data, July's export figures reinforce the picture of Singapore as a regional bellwether for how the AI investment cycle is reshaping growth expectations, even as geopolitical risk from the Middle East continues to weigh on other parts of the global economy. With export growth running well ahead of the levels implied by Enterprise Singapore's original forecast range, the July reading suggests the AI-driven tailwind identified last week remains firmly intact heading into the second half of the year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A neutral setting would be around USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7414, only marginally higher than the previous fix, even though the dollar index eased on Friday and the onshore spot rate closed a touch firmer. The central bank is unlikely to simply follow the softer dollar lower, and instead appears set to keep managing the pace of yuan appreciation carefully rather than letting market forces set the tone unchecked.That caution could extend further in the sessions ahead. With the dollar weakening, the PBOC might lean more heavily on its damping mechanism to slow the yuan's advance, potentially widening the gap between the fix and market expectations to around 500 pips from the previous 480. Such a move would lift the USD/CNY midpoint above Friday's 42-month low of 6.7878, underscoring the central bank's likely preference for a gradual, controlled currency path over a rapid yuan rally.***The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence.--- This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan Q2 real GDP prelim +0.3% q/q vs. expected +0.5%Japan Q2 GDP annualised +1.1% vs. expected +2.0%Japan Q2 GDP deflator +2.6% y/yJapan Q2 domestic demand contribution to GDP -0.2%Japan Q2 external demand contribution to GDP +0.5% vs. expected +0.3Japan Q2 exports +0.5% q/qJapan Q2 private consumption 0.0% q/q vs. expected +0.5%Japan Q2 capex -1.2% q/q vs. expected +0.4%---A GDP print this far below expectations complicates the Bank of Japan's path toward further policy normalisation, given the central bank has been leaning on steady domestic demand to justify additional rate hikes after moving away from ultra-easy policy. Flat private consumption and a sharp capex contraction point to a private sector still hesitant to spend, which could see the BOJ tread more cautiously into its next meeting even as elevated producer and consumer inflation keep pressure on policymakers to act. The yen is likely to come under renewed pressure on a weaker growth outlook, particularly if markets scale back September hike odds, while JGB yields may ease on reduced near-term tightening expectations. The external demand contribution beating forecasts offers a partial offset, but is unlikely to be enough on its own to change the broader narrative of a soft domestic economy.--- Japan's economy grew just 0.3% q/q in the April-June quarter, well below the 0.5% forecast, with annualised growth of 1.1% badly missing expectations of 2.0%, as weak capex and flat consumption weighed on domestic demand. Japan's economy is growing slower than expected, leaving the Bank of Japan with a harder case to make for its next rate hike.Summary:Japan's preliminary Q2 real GDP rose just 0.3% q/q, well short of the 0.5% forecast, with annualised growth of 1.1% badly missing expectations of 2.0%.The GDP deflator rose 2.6% y/y, underscoring that price pressures remain elevated even as headline growth disappoints.Domestic demand subtracted 0.2 percentage points from GDP, while external demand contributed a stronger than expected 0.5 percentage points, beating forecasts of 0.3.Private consumption was flat at 0.0% q/q, missing expectations of 0.5% growth, a weak signal given consumption's outsized weight in the Japanese economy.Capital expenditure fell 1.2% q/q, a sharp reversal from the expected 0.4% gain, pointing to corporate caution on new investment.Exports rose 0.5% q/q, helping cushion the broader growth shortfall. Japan's economy grew far more slowly than expected in the second quarter, with preliminary data showing real GDP rising just 0.3% quarter on quarter against forecasts for 0.5%, while the annualised growth rate of 1.1% badly missed expectations of 2.0%. The soft outturn adds a fresh complication to the Bank of Japan's push to normalise policy after years of ultra-loose monetary settings, coming at a moment when the central bank has been weighing further rate hikes against still-elevated inflation.The breakdown pointed to a domestic economy losing momentum even as trade helped cushion the headline number. Private consumption, which makes up more than half of Japan's economy, was flat on the quarter, undershooting expectations for a 0.5% rise and suggesting households remain cautious amid persistent cost of living pressures. Capital expenditure fell 1.2% quarter on quarter, a sharp reversal from the 0.4% gain economists had pencilled in, a sign corporates are pulling back on investment even as the BOJ has signalled a desire to see stronger private-sector spending underpin any further tightening. Domestic demand overall subtracted 0.2 percentage points from growth.External demand provided a partial offset, adding 0.5 percentage points to GDP and beating expectations of a 0.3 point contribution, helped by a 0.5% rise in exports. The GDP deflator, a broad measure of price pressures across the economy, rose 2.6% year on year, a reminder that inflation remains well above target even as growth disappoints, a combination that leaves the BOJ facing a difficult balancing act.The weak print is likely to feed into ongoing debate over the timing of the BOJ's next move. The central bank has spent much of 2026 navigating a gradual exit from decades of ultra-accommodative policy, with markets watching for further hikes as inflation, including recent producer price data, has stayed above target even when undershooting individual forecasts. A soft domestic demand picture, paired with weak capex and flat consumption, gives policymakers reason for caution, even as sticky inflation argues for continued tightening. The yen, already sensitive to shifts in rate expectations, is likely to remain a key barometer of how markets read the BOJ's response to today's data in the weeks ahead.--- This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The commentary underscores how sensitive gold sentiment remains to any upside surprise in US inflation data, given the current rally rests on expectations of a softer economy and a peaking rate cycle. A hotter than expected inflation print would risk reviving higher-for-longer Fed rate expectations, lifting Treasury yields and undermining the non-yielding metal's appeal, a scenario that could trigger a swift unwind of recent gains. At the same time, steady central bank buying on dips is seen as a structural floor beneath the market, meaning any pullback is more likely to be choppy and range-bound than a sustained reversal. For traders, the piece reads as a caution against extrapolating the recent rally in a straight line.--- State media in China is telling investors gold's rally looks stretched, not broken, and warns against piling in at the top.Summary:Chinese financial outlet Securities Daily cautioned against chasing gold at current price highs.The commentary identified Federal Reserve policy as the single biggest source of uncertainty for gold, with the rally premised on a weakening US economy and an end to the rate-hiking cycle.It warned that if inflation rebounds more than expected, the Fed could keep rates higher for longer, lifting Treasury yields and potentially reversing the case for gold.Rapid near-term gains were flagged as having created heavy profit-taking pressure and technically overbought conditions, raising the odds of a correction.The piece noted a tension between fast-moving speculative offshore flows reacting to policy shifts and steady central bank dip-buying, which it said makes a sustained one-directional move unlikely.It advised retail investors against blindly chasing highs, recommending position sizing aligned with risk tolerance and a long-term allocation approach. Chinese financial commentary outlet Securities Daily has cautioned investors against chasing gold at its current elevated levels, arguing the metal's near-term outlook is clouded by policy uncertainty and stretched technical conditions.According to the commentary, the single biggest variable for gold remains the trajectory of US Federal Reserve policy. The current rally has been built on expectations that the American economy is losing momentum and that the rate-hiking cycle has run its course, but the piece stressed that the inflation outlook underpinning those assumptions is far from settled. Should price pressures surprise to the upside, the Fed would likely be forced to hold rates higher for longer, a shift that would push Treasury yields up and weaken the investment case for a non-yielding asset like gold, potentially triggering a fast correction.The commentary also pointed to signs of market fatigue closer to home. It described the pace of recent gains as having generated substantial profit-taking pressure, alongside technical readings that suggest gold is overbought, both of which raise the probability of a pullback in the near term. Compounding the picture, the piece said speculative flows from offshore investors have been quick to react to shifting policy signals, amplifying short-term price swings, even as central banks around the world continue to treat dips as long-term buying opportunities.That clash, between nimble speculative positioning and patient official-sector accumulation, was cited as the reason a clean, sustained move in either direction looks unlikely for now. Instead, the outlet expects gold to trade in a choppy pattern at elevated levels, with the overall price base drifting gradually higher over time rather than breaking out or collapsing outright.The piece closed with a note of caution aimed at retail investors specifically, urging them not to chase the market blindly at current highs. It recommended sizing any exposure according to individual risk tolerance and approaching gold from a long-term portfolio allocation perspective rather than treating the recent rally as a signal to pile in. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.