Week in review The US stock markets started 2026 on a high note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallying on the first trading day thanks to renewed investor confidence.Technology companies led the comeback, with giants like Nvidia and Broadcom posting strong gains after a few difficult days at the end of December. Although the market missed out on the traditional year-end "Santa Claus rally," the longer-term picture remains very strong; all three major indexes finished 2025 with double-digit growth, marking their third straight year of profits.Read More: Silver (XAG/USD): A major top or a correction before new highs?The Dow Jones specifically closed out the year with an eight-month winning streak, fueled largely by the exploding demand for artificial intelligence technology. On the FX front, the US dollar began 2026 with a slight recovery, rising 0.12% on Friday after a challenging performance last year.In contrast, the Euro slipped by 0.11% to $1.1732, hurt by news that European factory activity has dropped to a nine-month low. Despite this slow start, both the Euro and the British Pound, which also dipped slightly today are coming off their strongest annual gains since 2017.Overall trading activity remained quiet especially in the Asian session as markets in Japan and China were closed for the holiday.Commodities started the day eyeing a recovery following the recent selloff. Gold traded briefly above the $4400/oz before the precious metal wiped out the majority of its daily gains.Silver is down around the 1% mark on the day while Platinum is up just over 1%.Palladium has struggled but is eyeing a move into positive territory, finally. zoom_out_map Source:TradingView The Week Ahead The first full trading week of 2026 marks a sharp transition from the quiet holiday season to a busy schedule of critical economic reports. Market participants are moving on from a strong year where major US stock indexes rose between 16% and 20%, now facing an economy that feels unstable and uneven.The coming week will be dominated by the December US jobs report, manufacturing data from both the U.S. and Europe, and updates on how UK retailers performed over Christmas. These events are happening against a backdrop of stubborn inflation near 3% and growing worries about labor shortages and new trade tariffs.US Markets - Deciphering the "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" ParadigmThe main event for this week is the US employment report coming out on January 9, 2026.This follows a year where hiring gradually slowed down, and experts predict the economy added about 55,000 jobs in December similar to November's modest numbers.However, the way analysts interpret this data is changing significantly. J.P. Morgan notes that because of stricter immigration rules and an aging population, the economy now needs far fewer new jobs to keep unemployment stable. The number of jobs needed to maintain the status quo has dropped from 50,000 a month to as low as 15,000.Consequently, even a relatively low gain of 55,000 jobs would be strong enough to lower the unemployment rate, which is expected to dip from 4.6% to 4.5%The current "stagnant" job market where companies are neither hiring aggressively nor firing workers is largely due to business uncertainty caused by changing trade rules and a recent government shutdown.As a result, most new jobs in December are expected to come from stable industries like healthcare and shipping, while construction and manufacturing struggle under high costs. This cooling labor demand allowed the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates late last year, bringing them to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.While market participants do not expect another cut in January, there is currently a 50% chance of a cut in March.However, if the upcoming jobs report is surprisingly weak, it could spark fears of a recession and lead investors to bet on faster interest rate cuts.In the UK, in the United Kingdom, the first full week of January is synonymous with the "Golden Quarter" post-mortem. The retail sector, a cornerstone of the UK economy, faces a rigorous assessment through a series of trading updates from its most prominent entities: Next, Marks & Spencer, Tesco, and J Sainsbury.These reports will offer the first definitive look at how consumers responded to the festive season amidst a backdrop of rising employment costs and a potential "price war" in the grocery sector.This may have a bigger impact than usual on indices after the FTSE 100 passed the 10000 point mark for the first time this week.Asia Pacific MarketsIn the Asia-Pacific region, the week of January 4 is characterized by the return of full market participation following the extended New Year bank holidays in Japan.Market participants are closely monitoring the Bank of Japan this week. While the bank is expected to proceed cautiously, new wage data arriving on January 7 could speed up interest rate hikes if earnings are higher than expected, which would strengthen the Japanese Yen.Attention also turns to China, where inflation data released on January 9 is expected to highlight ongoing problems with falling factory prices. Before that, a key trade report on January 8 will show how well China is coping with global trade tensions; despite new export restrictions on steel and electric vehicles, experts still forecast a massive trade surplus of over $100 billion. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - S&P 500 From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 has seen a decent pullback over the last 5 trading days.This has brought the index close to a key confluence level where the 100-day MA and ascending trendline converge.This is around the 6800 handle and could see the index print a higher low before moving higher once more.If this level breaks, support may be found at 6675 and 6650 respectively.On the upside, resistance rests at 6900 before the all-time highs at 6950 comes into focus.S&P 500 Daily Chart, January 2, 2026 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

2025 was one hell of a year for trading.From volatility and shifting geopolitics to consistent one-way trends and pivotal rate cuts, every type of trader found their edge this year.The first half was defined by a multi-asset explosion against the US Dollar, as participants aggressively diversified away from two decades of US-centric positioning. With Europe reappearing on the international scene and capital flows moving decisively, the Dollar Index was arguably the most critical chart to track through the first six months. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. December 31, 2025 – Source: TradingView To capitalize on this diversification, precious metals were hunted down relentlessly. Gold is up a stealthy 65%, but the most impressive rallies spread to the broader complex. Silver was easily the winner, crushing all expectations with a massive 145% gain since last New Year's Eve. I hope some of our readers followed our post-Jackson Hole guidance to ride that wave. zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart. December 31, 2025 – Source: TradingView Finally, looking at individual names in the equity market, the standout performer has to be Alphabet. Breaking away from its peers and surpassing Nvidia—which saw some downbeat action post-October—the internet giant proved itself as the King of Stocks. Sitting right at the center of the AI revolution with its data centers, chip production, and technological moats, it was the year's undisputed leader. zoom_out_map Google (Alphabet) Daily Chart. December 31, 2025 – Source: TradingView Honorable mention goes to the best-performing precious metals stocks—I invite you to check our full yearly rewind and 2026 expectations right here! Happy New Year, and wishing you successful trading and prosperity in the year ahead.Safe Trades and Sweet Celebrations!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Slides 4.5%: Key Levels to Watch Moving ForwardOil prices edged higher for a second day as markets eye Geopolitical risks as a potential catalyst.However, as has been the case over the last few months of the year neither bulls nor bears appear ready to fully commit. The shifting tone on the geopolitical front have failed to help thus far.Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Moscow accused Ukraine of trying to attack President Putin's residence, which has raised fears that oil supplies might be disrupted. Ukraine denied the claim, calling it false and an attempt to sabotage peace negotiations.However, US President Donald Trump expressed anger about the alleged attack after speaking with Putin. Although Trump still says a peace deal is possible, these rising tensions have led market participants to believe that an agreement will be very hard to reach, which could drive oil prices higher.The question as has been the case for the last few months is, by how much?Middle East Tensions, Iran Protests Traders are worried about rising tensions in the Middle East after President Trump threatened a major strike on Iran if it tries to rebuild its nuclear or missile programs.He also warned Hamas to disarm, hoping to advance the ceasefire agreement with Israel that was reached in October.Oil supply worries grew after Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes in Yemen against groups supported by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Saudi Arabia declared its national security was at risk and ordered UAE troops to leave Yemen within 24 hours.Although the UAE was surprised and disappointed by the attack, it later announced that it would voluntarily withdraw its last remaining counterterrorism forces from the country. This conflict between traditional allies has added to market fears about stability in the Middle East.However, even with these fears that conflict could disrupt supplies, analysts believe oil prices will not rise too high because there is currently too much oil available in the global market.Catalyst Ahead - OPEC Meeting There is the first OPEC meeting of 2026 ahead and it could not come at a worse time given the tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Yemen.Despite the nature of the disagreement between the two Oil powerhouses, it is unlikely to impact oil markets. This is because OPEC functions by coordinating oil production even when its members strongly disagree on political issues.These two nations have had conflicting goals in Yemen for years and even argued openly about oil production limits in 2021, yet they have always managed to reach agreements to keep the market stable.The real challenge facing OPEC in 2026 is not this diplomatic spat, but rather the economic problem of managing oversupply and falling oil prices. History suggests that as long as the members can agree on the production math, their political arguments will not stop the group from functioning.Whatever the decision at the upcoming January 4 meeting, it does have the potential to be the catalyst that may break oil prices out of its funk. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - WTI From a technical analysis standpoint, WTI continues to struggle with significant sideways movement.Oil is trading in a large symmetrical triangle pattern with a break in either direction hopefully leading to a decent rally this time around.Risks for me personally are still tilted toward the downside, with a break to the upside likely to run out of steam quickly. (This is just based on current dynamics and recent price action).Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart, December 30, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Key levels to pay attention to:Support57.69 (100-day MA)56.88 (December 17 swing high & December 26 swing low)55.79Resistance58.38 (200-day MA)59.0060.00 (psychological level)Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

As the dust settles on a tumultuous 2025, traders are left catching their breath after a year that defied the typical post-election script. If 2024 was the prelude, 2025 was the main event—a year defined by a stark pivot toward American exceptionalism and the revamp of global trade volatility.The year was dominated by the Trump administration’s aggressive "America First" policies, which paradoxically accelerated a global move away from reliance on the US Dollar. While Washington secured new bilateral trade deals with partners, the broader message to the world was clear: the way the global economy functioned the past 50 years is changing.Geopolitically, the "peace through strength" doctrine faced severe tests. The conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine did not cease; they merely mutated. While high-level summits—including the Trump-Xi meeting in Busan—offered temporary truces, the underlying friction points remained hot. Meanwhile, central banks across the developed world continued their rate-cutting cycles, providing a liquidity backstop that kept equity markets buoyant despite the political chaos.And who could forget the drama in Tokyo? The "Takaichi Yen-run" will be studied by FX traders for decades.The market positioned aggressively for continued loose monetary policy under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi – After an 11% drop in USD/JPY throughout the first half of the year, the resulting volatility saw the pair get back to down only 1%.Other currencies which had already strengthened against the dollar saw even wilder runs against the yen. Check out EUR/JPY! zoom_out_map EUR/JPY Weekly Chart, December 30, 2025. Source: TradingView As we turn the page to 2026, the trading landscape shifts from reaction to anticipation. Here is what to expect.Economics: Inflation Fears and Doubts in the US Will Global Inflation Maintain its Path?Will there really be a Soft Landing or just no Landing? While headline inflation moderated in 2025, with doubts regarding to the latest US CPI release, 2026 might reserve some surprises. The full pass-through of 2025’s tariffs should see its effect in the first half of next year.The question for traders is whether this is a one-off level adjustment or the start of a sticky, upward-pressured path. If the latter, the bond market is drastically mispriced.US Economy: Downside Risk vs. AI ProductivityThe US economy is a tale of two sectors. Manufacturing is struggling under the weight of trade disputes, but services—buoyed by the AI boom—remain robust. The wildcard for 2026 is jobs. We are moving past the "AI investment" phase into the "AI implementation" phase. If AI begins to displace white-collar labor at scale, consumer confidence could crack further, tipping the US into a shallow recession by mid-year.Central Banks: The Pivot PointThe US: The Federal Reserve is in a bind. The market is pricing in cuts, but if tariff-driven inflation spikes, the Fed may be forced to hold.Japan: The BoJ remains the outlier. Despite the market’s disbelief, Governor Ueda—backed by a government desperate to defend purchasing power—may deliver further hawkish surprises. The "carry trade" is not dead, but it is dangerous. Watch for a potential hike to 1.0% by Q3, which would send shockwaves through global liquidity.Macroeconomics: The Commodity Scramble The Metal Demand WinnersAs the Debasement Trade evolves, capital is hunting for resource-rich nations with stable governance.Canada could stand out as a primary beneficiary, conditional to a solid US deal.With oil prices stabilizing and a massive surge in demand for critical minerals (copper, nickel, uranium) needed for AI data centers and defense, the Canadian economy could outperform. The Loonie (CAD) could see nice momentum if they manage FX Trends: The Rise of Regional BlocsThe era of global currency correlation is fading. In 2026, keep an eye on whether Multi-Regional Trends persist:North American Bloc: The US and Canada may move in lockstep depending on if the USDMCA Deal gets anchored well.Pacific Bloc: The AUD and NZD should stick together, particularly if the Royal Bank of New Zealand manages to The Old Continent: European currencies have managed to attract quite strong flows between the CHF reaching multi-decade highs against the US Dollar, without mentioning the Euro and Pound having a stellar run. The question stands: Will European currencies hold strong or is their run over?For clues, keep an eye on the US Dollar.De-dollarization: Slow Burn or Forest Fire?The "sell the Dollar" trade was crowded yet successful trade in 2025, but 2026 may see a pause.Now, eyes will be on the US politics and whether dollar sales persist or if the de-dollarization sees an actual slow down or reversal. Keep an eye on the US trade policies, metals and if the Federal Reserve holds rates high. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly Chart, December 30, 2025. Source: TradingView Politics: The Year of the Ballot and the Bench The Federal Reserve AppointmentThis is the single most critical event of Q1. With Jerome Powell’s term ending in May 2026, the nomination process in January will be a market-moving spectacle. President Trump has made no secret of his desire for lower rates.The Scenario: If a loyalist like Kevin Hassett or Kevin Warsh is nominated, expect a massive "risk-on" rally in equities and a sharp sell-off in the Dollar, as markets price in a politicized, dovish Fed. The Senate confirmation hearings will be the volatility event of the spring.The Supreme Court & TariffsLegal challenges to the administration's "Reciprocal Tariff" executive orders are heading to the Supreme Court. A ruling is expected by June. If the Court strikes down the President's authority to unilaterally set broad tariffs, we could see a massive deflationary unwind and a rally in global trade proxies (shipping, emerging markets).US Mid-TermsThe 2026 Mid-terms will dominate the H2 narrative. The Senate map puts the Republican majority at risk, with key races in Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan. If polls suggest a "Blue Wave" that could gridlock the Trump agenda, markets may actually cheer the return of legislative paralysis—Wall Street loves a divided government. Read More:The 2025 Metal Frenzy: A Year-End Wrap-Up and 2026 OutlookWTI Outlook: Oil Bounces From Channel Lows — Major Reversal in 2026?Markets Today: Gold, Silver Eye a Recovery as Indices Hold the High Ground. FOMC Minutes Now in FocusGeopolitics: Some Volatile Flashpoints Oil: Center StageAfter a bearish 2025, oil might be on the brink of a reversal. The catalyst likely won't be demand, but supply disruption.Venezuela: The détente is over. The US administration’s patience with Caracas has run out. Expect a return to "maximum pressure" sanctions, effectively removing Venezuelan heavy crude from the Western market. This puts a floor under Brent crude prices.Iran: Tensions are escalating. With Tehran conducting more frequent ballistic missile tests and enriching uranium to near-weapons grade, the risk of a preemptive strike by Israel (or a US-led coalition) is higher than at any point in the last decade. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the ultimate "black swan."The Taiwan StraitWhile the Busan meeting cooled temperatures temporarily, the underlying thermodynamics are heating up. Intelligence suggests China is moving its timeline for "reunification readiness" forward. 2026 will likely see an increase in "grey zone" warfare—cyberattacks, blockades, and airspace incursions. For traders, this could see major repricing in risk-assets and the US dollar.Any kinetic escalation around Taiwan would make the 2025 volatility look like a warm-up.Summary 2026 will be a year where economics and politics are inseparable. The "pure" trades are gone. Every position—whether in FX, bonds, or equities—is now a bet on a geopolitic outcomes. Stay nimble, keep an eye on the Supreme Court, and never fight the tape when the Fed Chair changes guard.Safe Trades and Happy New Year!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: The 2025 Metal Frenzy: A Year-End Wrap-Up and 2026 OutlookGold is experiencing its first major pullback since mid-November as the precious metal is down 4.5% on the day. How far will the current pullback go and what are the key levels to watch?Precious metals and commodities are falling across the board as profit taking and portfolio rebalancing ahead of the new year appear to be driving some volatility following the recent price surge ahead of Christmas day.Commodity Market Snapshot zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Gold is down around 4.5% which is small in comparison to palladium and platinum which have both slipped around 17% and 15% respectively. Silver is also experiencing a double digit drop off on the day, currently down around 12.6% on the day.Geopolitical Hope Aiding the Selloff? Geopolitics had been driving some of the rally particularly from a safe haven perspective ahead of Christmas. US, Venezuela tensions appeared to be on course for a possible military intervention which stoked haven demand.However, the US administration has clarified that they intend to turn up the economic pressure first and see if that yields the desired result.Add to that cautious hope following comments from the U.S. government regarding progress in the Ukraine peace talks, which is acting as a slight drag on haven demand.On Sunday, President Trump stated that he and Ukrainian President Zelensky are getting "very close" to reaching an agreement to finally end the war.What Comes Next for Gold Prices? Investors are closely watching for the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting notes on Tuesday to get a better idea of future interest rates.Currently, traders expect rates to be cut twice next year, which is usually good for assets like gold that do not earn interest.However, gold prices are already very high, and there is a risk they could fall if the Fed surprises everyone by keeping rates high or if large investment funds decide to sell their holdings. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is intriguing to say the least..The selloff today has taken gold into oversold territory while at the same breaching the 50-Day MA and testing the 100-day MA resting at 4321.If Gold can hold above the 100-day MA bulls may regain interest as liquidity returns and push prices higher.The pullback today could be down to profit taking and repositioning and in the current environment there appears to be little bullish pressure to stop the slide.There is of course the probability that the selloff continues and brings lower levels of support into play.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, December 29, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Key levels to pay attention to include$4,321, 100-day MA$4,275, Previous Swing Low on December 16 Before the pre-Christmas Rally$4250, Previous Breakout LevelFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways 2025 FX markets were defined by a tug of war between “US exceptionalism” and “US debasement”, with fiscal fears and erratic trade policy driving early dollar weakness, while Fed–global policy divergence intermittently revived USD strength.The US dollar fell sharply in H1 2025 (-11.5%), rebounded briefly on renewed US exceptionalism, then settled into consolidation, ending the year down ~10% as the Fed shifted to a more balanced, mildly dovish stance.Non-US currencies broadly outperformed the USD, led by EUR, CHF and AUD, supported by portfolio rebalancing, selective central bank restraint, commodity dynamics, and easing US-China tensions.Improving global growth expectations threaten USD support in 2026, as rising economic surprises and potential pauses in non-US rate cuts could compress the US Treasury yield premium.US liquidity is turning into a structural headwind for the US dollar, with the Fed ending QT and restarting Treasury bill buybacks, lifting net liquidity and historically increasing downside pressure on the USD.Technically, EUR/USD and AUD/USD show bullish continuation signals, while USD/JPY appears vulnerable to a bearish reversal unless it breaks decisively above long-term resistance.2025 recap - A tug of war between “US exceptionalism” and “US debasement” zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Year-to-date performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Dollar Index long-term secular trend as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The defining narrative in the foreign exchange market for 2025 is a tug of war between "US exceptionalism – US dollar strong" and “US debasement – US dollar weak”.At the start of 2025, market consensus leaned heavily toward a bearish outlook for the US dollar, anchored on the new Trump administration’s aggressive fiscal agenda. Deep corporate tax cuts were expected to further widen the US budget deficit, raising concerns over heavier Treasury issuance, weaker demand for US sovereign debt, and upward pressure on long-term yields—dynamics that underpinned the “US Debasement” trade narrative.This view was reinforced by erratic US trade policy execution, which unsettled global markets. The announcement of sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs on 2 April 2025 amplified fears that the administration might tolerate—or even encourage—a weaker dollar to enhance US export competitiveness as part of its ambition to reindustrialize the economy around high-tech manufacturing.Against this backdrop, the US Dollar Index slid sharply by 11.5% in the first half of 2025 (1 January to 1 July) (see Fig. 1). The sell-off then stalled as the “US exceptionalism” narrative resurfaced, driven by widening monetary policy divergences between the Federal Reserve and other major developed-market central banks.Into the third quarter, the Fed adopted a “wait-and-see” stance amid sticky inflation and a still-resilient US services sector. In contrast, the ECB and BoE struck a more dovish tone as the euro area wrestled with waning confidence tied to Germany’s industrial slowdown, while the UK faced stagflationary pressures. At the same time, commodity-linked currencies suffered a sharp terms-of-trade shock from renewed US-China geopolitical tensions, weighing on the CAD, AUD, and NZD.The Japanese yen also remained under pressure despite inflation running above 2%, constrained by the Bank of Japan’s limited ability to normalise policy decisively amid political and administrative gridlock. With “US exceptionalism” back in focus, the US Dollar Index retraced part of its losses, narrowing its year-to-date decline from 11.5% to 8.4% between 1 July and 31 July (see Fig. 2).That rebound proved short-lived. On 22 August 2025, the Fed’s guidance pivoted decisively dovish when Chair Powell, speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, warned that a weakening US labour market posed risks to growth. The dollar subsequently resumed its decline but failed to break the 1 July 2025 low, entering a sideways consolidation.As of 29 December 2025, the US Dollar Index was down 10.3% year-to-date, reflecting the Fed’s more balanced policy stance even as it resumed easing in September with three 25 bps rate cuts, lowering the fed funds rate to 3.5%–3.75% from 4.25%–4.5%.Below is a summary table highlighting the 2025 performance of key currencies and their main drivers. Currency YTD return as of 29 Dec 2025 Performance Profile Key Drivers EUR (vs USD) +12.07% Gradual appreciation, choppy ECB less dovish than Fed, portfolio rebalancing away from higher valuation US mega-cap stocks. GBP (vs USD) +7.32% Modest gains, volatile BoE easing priced in but delayed, commitment to fiscal restraint. CHF (vs USD) +12.85% Tight range, defensive SNB easing caps upside, safe-haven demand in risk-off episodes. CAD (vs USD) +5.00% Episodic strength Oil swings, BoC pause after cuts, strong data surprises. JPY (vs USD) +0.46% Wide range-bound BoJ normalization expectations vs timing of rate hikes constrained by the new Takaichi administration. AUD (vs (USD) +7.89% Range-bound, commodity & risk-on-off sentiment led RBA pause after early easing, iron ore & China swings, risk appetite. NZD (vs USD) +4.10% Underperformed AUD, volatile RBNZ more decisively dovish on weaker domestic growth in H1 but projected no rate cuts in 2026 in its last meeting on 26 November. CNH, offshore yuan (vs USD) +4.37% Soft bias, controlled Weak China data with deflationary risk in Q1 2026, offset by US-China tariffs pause with targeted stimulus. SGD (VS USD) +5.90% Low volatility Improvement in the regional macro environment, easing US-China tensions. Next, we examine the key macro forces likely to shape the US dollar’s trajectory in 2026, followed by three currency pairs to watch from a technical analysis perspective.Improved global growth prospects may reduce the US Treasury yield premium zoom_out_map Fig. 3: World Citigroup Economic Surprise Index as of 26 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) zoom_out_map Fig. 4: 2 YR & 10 YR US Treasury/sovereign bonds yield spreads with US Dollar Index as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The World Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has extended its upward trend, reaching a 20-month high of 26.80 as of 11 December 2025. Readings above zero indicate that global economic data are consistently outperforming expectations (see Fig. 3).A rising Surprise Index points to improving global growth prospects, which could encourage greater capital allocation toward non-US assets and, in turn, place downside pressure on the US dollar in 2026. Stronger global growth may also lead developed-market central banks such as the ECB, RBA, and BoC to pause their rate-cut cycles, potentially pushing their sovereign bond yields higher.As a result, the US Treasury yield premium, the spread between US yields and those of other major economies, could narrow further into 2026, creating a negative feedback loop for the US dollar. Consistent with this, the US Dollar Index has exhibited a strong positive correlation with the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries relative to an equal-weighted basket of sovereign bonds from Germany, the UK, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, Australia, and China (see Fig. 4).An increase in US liquidity may increase the odds of a weaker US dollar zoom_out_map Fig. 5: US Net Liquidity Indicator with inverse of US Dollar Index as of 26 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The US Net Liquidity Indicator, constructed by netting the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (liquidity injection) against the combined drains from the US Treasury General Account and the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facility, serves as a useful gauge of liquidity conditions in the US financial system. Historically, the indicator shows an inverse relationship with the US dollar, or a direct correlation with the inverse of the US Dollar Index.In simple terms, improving liquidity conditions, reflected by a rising Net Liquidity Indicator, tend to weaken the US dollar, while tightening liquidity, signalled by a falling indicator, typically supports dollar strength. As shown in Fig. 5, the Net Liquidity Indicator surged during the COVID period from February 2020 to December 2021, coinciding with a sustained weakening of the US dollar over the same timeframe.In early May 2022, the Fed announced it would shrink its balance sheet, launching its second round of quantitative tightening (QT) in June 2022. Even ahead of the announcement, the Net Liquidity Indicator had already turned lower between December 2021 and April 2022, which aligned with a sharp rebound in the US dollar from late 2021 through September 2022.Since June 2023, the Fed’s second QT programme has kept US net liquidity largely range-bound, leaving the US Dollar Index trapped in a choppy, upward-sloping trading range over the same period. That backdrop shifted in late 2025.At the 29 October 2025 FOMC meeting, the Fed announced the end of QT, effective 1 December 2025, and followed up at its 10 December 2025 meeting with an unexpected restart of Treasury buybacks under its reverse management programme, committing to purchase US$40 billion of short-term Treasury bills per month starting 12 December 2025.In response, the US Net Liquidity Indicator rebounded from its range low of US$5.58 trillion in the week of 27 October 2025 to US$5.7 trillion as of 26 December 2025, alongside a renewed weakening in the US Dollar Index. If the Fed continues its Treasury bill buyback programme, net liquidity is likely to rise further, increasing downside risks for the US dollar.EUR/USD exhibits positive elements to resume bullish leg within major uptrend zoom_out_map Fig. 6: EUR/USD major trend as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The 5-month sideways movement of the EUR/USD from June 2025 to early December 2025 is considered a potential consolidation within a three-year major uptrend phase since its low on 28 September 2022, rather than the start of a major topping process.The recent price action of the EUR/USD has managed to stage a rebound after a close retest of the key 200-day moving average (around 1.1470) and has reintegrated back above the 50-day moving average in early December 2025 (see Fig. 6).In addition, the weekly RSI momentum indicator has also staged a corresponding rebound after a retest at its 50 level, which suggests a potential revival of upside momentum for the EUR/USD.Watch the long-term secular support of 1.1230 on the EUR/USD, and a clearance above 1.1940 sees the next major resistances coming at 1.2270 and 1.2540.On the flipside, failure to hold at 1.1230 invalidates the bullish bias for a deeper corrective decline to expose the next major supports at 1.0940 and 1.0495 (also the lower boundary of the long-term secular ascending channel).AUD/USD major bullish breakout from 4-year descending resistance zoom_out_map Fig. 7: AUD/USD major trend as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The AUD/USD has managed to clear above a major hurdle after 4 months of choppy range consolidation from July 2025 to November 2025 (see Fig. 7).After a retest on its key 200-day moving average in late November 2025, the AUD/USD has staged a major bullish breakout on the week of 1 December 2025, with a weekly close above a former long-term secular descending trendline resistance from February 2021 swing high now turns pull-back support at 0.6605.The weekly MACD trend indicator reinforces the AUD/USD’s major bullish breakout, having produced a bullish crossover above its centreline, signalling a potential shift from a sideways phase into a sustained uptrend.Watch the 0.6400 key long-term pivotal support on the AUD/USD, and right now, it has staged a clearance above 0.6700, where the next major resistances are coming in at 0.6940 and 0.7140 in the first step.However, a break and a weekly close below 0.6400 invalidates the bullish tone for a resumption of the choppy corrective decline phase to retest the next major support zone of 0.5990/0.5810 (COVID period swing low of March 2020).USD/JPY potential bearish reversal towards major range support zoom_out_map Fig. 8: USD/JPY major trend as of 29 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) Since hitting a 38-year high of 161.95 in July 2024, the USD/JPY has been trapped in a wide sideways range of 15%.The USD/JPY hit the bottom of the range at 140.25 at the end of April 2025 (ex-post US President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement) and drifted upwards towards the upper boundary of the major sideways range in the second half of 2025.Right now, it is coming to the tail end of the upper boundary of the major range, with the weekly RSI momentum indicator shaping a bearish reaction at its descending resistance that coincides with its overbought region.These observations suggest that the multi-month up move of the USD/JPY from April 2025 to December 2025 is losing upside momentum, which increases the odds of a bearish reversal back towards the middle part of the range in the first step (see Fig. 8).Watch the 161.95 key long-term secular pivotal resistance on the USD/JPY, with the medium-term support zone coming in at 148.65/145.85 (also the 200-day moving average). A break below 145.85 exposes the major range support zone of 140.25/137.35.On the other hand, a clearance with a weekly close above 161.95 invalidates the bearish reversal scenario for the continuation of its major bullish impulsive up move sequence towards the next major resistance of 170.70 in the first step. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It's been a wild ride for Markets throughout 2026.Most catalysts have revolved around the Trump Administration's tariff madness, Geopolitical conflicts, the endangered Federal Reserve's Independence, the pursuit of an AI frenzy, and the setup of the Debasement Trade.And one particular asset class has dominated all five of these major yearly themes—a crossroads of multiple factors that have targeted precious metals.Even with most traders taking their breaks, Platinum (+ 10%!), Gold (+ 1.50%), and Silver (+ 6.50%) are all reaching new all-time highs in today's session. zoom_out_map Gold, Silver and Platinum Daily Charts – December 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView What helped metals to get where they are? The first factor is probably the key to most of the others – US President Trump took office on January 20 and, following his program to the letter, began to announce menacing policies to its enemies as well as to its allies.After intimidating Canada into becoming the 51st state and Greenland being a target for US territorial expansion (threats repeated recently), World leaders have started to doubt the shape of US diplomatic relationships and stability, prompting a significant shift in the US Dollar. Central Banks have amplified an already begun massive diversification trend after 15 years of global US Dollar asset and currency domination.The People's Bank of China continued accumulating massive amounts of Gold as Beijing prepared for yet another trade war, leading a wave of influx into the yellow metal.Gold had already rallied quite extensively as Markets were pricing the end of hiking cycles in 2022 towards asset-boosting cuts, rising from $1,600 to over $4,500 in three years. zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 3-Day Chart, December 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:2026 Stock Indices Outlook: Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng poised to outperformMarkets Today: Commodities Extend Gains as Silver Breaches $75/oz, Japan Industrial Output SlidesIt's Christmas already for Metals – Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) and Platinum (XPT/USD) Trading LevelsBut Gold Wasn't the Central Target However, Gold wasn't the main target in 2025 – the fact that it sustained its elevated prices even as the Federal Reserve pushed back against rate cuts led to a metals market-wide frenzy.At the beginning of April, Liberation Day had already triggered a first wave of purchases of the precious commodity, as global policies were forced to become less dependent on the now irrational United States policy. Stock Markets marked a bottom, allowing the AI trend to flourish yet again.The market had been volatile but relatively calm until August 2025, when the regime-changing Jackson Hole speech from Powell occurred. zoom_out_map Metals Performance in 2025 – Source: TradingView The Post Jackson Hole Regime Change After the Symposium, however, Markets concluded that things would not be the same anymore:The political pressure to cut rates will be harsh, tariffs will put upward pressure on prices yet again, and the Fed's Independence will be even more challenged, prompting immediate fury towards Silver, which then spread to other metals such as Platinum, Palladium, Aluminum and Copper.The rally in metals naturally spreaded to related Equities like Barrick Gold (B), First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG), and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), which have all rallied considerably.Exacerbated by immense investments in data centers, power cells, and all the wires and technologies required to create the AI world we know today, metals saw Market-changing and non-stop demand, consolidating without retracing much.Following a calm period in October, the pricing of the December rate cut propelled all metals to all-time highs, and the momentum has continued, even with the ongoing holiday trading.All primary precious metals have either reached or surpassed multi-year highs, with some if not most even setting new all-time records.As 2025 comes to an end, it will be interesting to see what 2026 has in store for the markets.What to watch for the Metals Market in 2026 Central Bank diversification is the first one. Rate cuts are still priced and expected in the US, prompting a further boost as non-yielding assets flourish in the environment.The US Dollar and US Treasuries still represent the significant holdings of global central banks, and American equities are the dominant attractors of capital. Hence, any outflows in such would provide a fundamental underpin to metal prices.Geopolitical turmoil may not subside significantly, and Metals represent strong safe havens in such an environment.Even as conflicts are abating, more are emerging around with the ongoing US-Venezuela tensions, more minor regional conflicts such as Thailand and Cambodia or even the not-seemingly stopping Ukraine-Russia (both nations are huge suppliers of precious metals), but the worst are those which havent made their way to the headlines such as China tensions with japan and Taiwan and Iran potentially making its way to more headlines.Government debt isn't expected to subside soon, as the new geopolitical regime could exacerbate already high levels of debt, further boosting metals.But Things will Surely not be a Straight Line to Record Highs However, some counterarguments could arise.Are prices overextended compared to the current use and fundamental value of the metals? An eternal question in Markets.However, looking at the 2025 yearly close, it doesn't appear that demand is stalling for now.On the other hand, what could make the difference would be if alternative metals begin to squeeze as harshly as Silver and Gold. Platinum and Palladium have begun a catch-up move to their peers. However, metals that still have some room to rally could be copper and aluminum, which are widely used in electronic gear and electricity production.Are the bottlenecks from huge investments into AI still going to be as big in 2026 as supply tries to catch up to the demand? AI spending may not increase, but it will likely continue at least through 2026 and should maintain a high demand bar in the coming years.Will potential unseen inflation be a booster or a diminishing factor for metal prices? Inflation, by itself, boosts metal prices as the relative purchasing power of fiat currencies decreases. However, if another wave forms on the surface and central banks start hiking again, metals might experience some stalling.For example, with the Bank of Japan adopting a progressively more hawkish (yet hesitant) tone, there will be less "cheap" funding for the commodities. Don't forget the Swiss National Bank, which took its rates to 0% in June 2025. It is expected to maintain its rates low for now and will surely haveAn unexpected global slowdown could also slow the demand for tech centers, which would imply a lesser demand for industrial metals.   Despite the volatility in geopolitics and trade, consumption and GDP growth continued on a strong upward path in 2025. With Market bubble fears and slowing hiring, economies may experience at least a slowdown, with a tail risk for the worst.Predicting future flows is a daunting, multi-billion-dollar task where the best in the industry attempt to provide their views on end-2026 prices.I will provide my attempt at forecasts for the final 2026 prices, along with a bearish and bullish case, to offer hypothetical price ranges for primary traded metals.The Bullish Case for Metals – Fiat Debasement and Government Deficit continues Gold $5,500Silver $80Platinum $3,000Palladium $2,750Copper (per pound): $7.50The Bearish Case – Global Demand Slows down as Governments back off their High Spending Gold: $3,500Silver: $45Platinum: $1,800Palladium: $1,700Copper: $5.00Even the most bearish scenarios would result in maintaining the current elevated pricing, as government debt and risks remain elevated. AI and technologies should remain top spending directions for global firms, with electricity production taking the metals trade to the next phase.Things are Subject to significant change as markets are very unpredictable, and the picture will draw progressively as months go by. The rest will be for the future.One thing is for sure: few could have predicted such an erratic year for Markets in 2025.Happy New Year celebrations and a final week of the year.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equities stayed resilient in 2025, absorbing tariff-driven trade shocks and US-China tensions, with the iShares MSCI All World Index on pace for a strong third consecutive double-digit annual gain.Asia and several emerging markets led performance, with South Korea, Brazil, and Hong Kong topping year-to-date returns, while the US outperformed only when measured from the April 2025 post-selloff reversal.Rotations and valuation resets shaped regional winners, as capital shifted out of expensive US mega-cap tech into cheaper opportunities across Europe and Asia, with Hong Kong and Japan boosted by supportive liquidity and policy tailwinds.Macro signals now favour a more dovish Fed in 2026, supported by falling inflationary expectations and weaker oil prices, conditions that lower the risk of reigniting inflation and widen the runway for rate cuts.China’s deflation risks are easing, as core CPI stabilises, an improving backdrop that could extend Hong Kong’s multi-month uptrend, particularly if the Hang Seng Index breaks above the long-capped 27,500 resistance.Technical setups point to potential leadership changes, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average positioned for catch-up gains amid a steeper yield curve and strengthening value factors, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index remain in major bullish structures. Global stock markets have extended their bullish momentum from 2024 into 2025, navigating a year marked by significant macro and geopolitical shocks. Chief among them was the US administration’s imposition of reciprocal tariffs on all major trading partners, effectively igniting a new phase of the global trade war.Tensions between the US and China also escalated, with tit-for-tat tariffs and sanctions targeting strategically critical sectors. These included advanced semiconductor chips used for cutting-edge AI models, as well as rare earths essential for magnets in the automotive, electronics, defence, and renewable energy industries.Despite these headwinds, global equities have remained resilient. As of 25 December 2025, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF is on track to finish the year up 21%, marking a potential third consecutive annual gain above 15%, following returns of 17.5% in 2024 and 22.3% in 2023.Against this backdrop, we now turn to a review of the 2025 performances of key global benchmark stock indices and the main drivers behind their moves.The global snapshot of diverging positive trajectories zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Year-to-date performance of global benchmark stock indices as of 25 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Global benchmark stock indices performance from 7 April 2025 to 25 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Global benchmark stock indices are posting gains across two key reference periods: year to date as of 25 December 2025, and from the “US Liberation Day” market reversal on 7 April 2025 to 25 December 2025. The latter followed a sharp global equity drawdown of roughly 18% from the 18 February 2025 peak to the 7 April 2025 trough, triggered by the US administration’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs on 2 April 2025.On a year-to-date basis, Asia-Pacific and emerging markets dominate performance. South Korea’s KOSPI leads with a surge of 71.2%, followed by Brazil’s Bovespa (+33.4%) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (+28.7%). These gains comfortably outpaced US benchmarks, including the Nasdaq 100 (+22.1%), S&P 500 (+17.9%), Dow Jones (+14.5%), and Russell 2000 (+14.3%) (see Fig. 1).Looking at performance from 7 April to 25 December 2025, South Korea’s KOSPI (+76.5%) and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+61.9%) remain leaders, while the Nasdaq 100 (+47.2%) ranks among the top four global outperformers (see Fig. 2).In short, 2025 has been a strong year for global equities, but leadership has been uneven. Asia and parts of Europe have outperformed, while US markets have rallied with narrower leadership concentrated in AI-driven, high-productivity themes.What drove the gains Regional rotation and valuation appeal outside the US: Early in 2025, investors rotated out of stretched US large-cap technology stocks into cheaper value opportunities elsewhere. Europe benefited from more attractive valuations and renewed confidence in fiscal expansion and defence spending.Macro and liquidity tailwinds in Asia: Improved liquidity conditions, supportive policy settings, and signs of regional economic recovery underpinned strong equity performance in markets such as Hong Kong and Japan.Below is a summary of the key performance drivers across the major global benchmark stock indices. Index YTD return as of 25 Dec 2025 Key Drivers US S&P 500 +17.9% Strong earnings overall, tech & AI leadership, supportive liquidity, and macro backdrop. US Nasdaq 100 +22.1% Dominated by strength in large-cap tech and AI-related names; investor appetite for “growth/tech” remains elevated. US Dow Jones Industrial Average +14.5% More balanced sector mix; less tech exposure, so less boosted by AI/tech rally. KOSPI (South Korea) +71.2% Surge led by AI- and semiconductor-related stocks (notably large-caps such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix), alongside renewed foreign inflows supported by market-friendly policy shifts and a gradual easing of Korea’s long-standing valuation discount. Nikkei 225 (Japan) +26.3% Strong corporate earnings, supportive domestic policies, and investor rotation into Asia equities. Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong/China-linked) +28.7% Stimulus expectations from China, improved macro sentiment in the region, China's Big Tech catch-up on AI with lower-cost open-source models (eg, DeepSeek), and a global reallocation toward Asian assets. Straits Times Index (Singapore) +22.4% Steady bank earnings, strong balance-sheets, and Singapore’s macro stability, with investors favouring value, dividends, and defensive names even as global rate-cut expectations help support REITs and yield plays. DAX (Germany) +22.3% Defensive sectors, industrial, and value firms benefited from US-NATO fallout, supportive macro (some fiscal/ policy tailwinds in Europe). FTSE 100 (UK) +20.8% Exposure to more stable value sectors; some benefit from defensive/ dividend-oriented demand in an uncertain global environment. Next, we break down the key macro forces that are likely to shape global equity performance in 2026.Macro signals point to a potential dovish Fed in 2026 zoom_out_map Fig. 3: US 5-YR & 10-YR breakeven rates with WTI crude oil as of 26 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The US Federal Reserve resumed its rate-cutting cycle in September 2025 after a nine-month pause, delivering three 25-basis-point cuts that brought the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75% as of 2 December 2025. According to the CME FedWatch Tool at the time of writing, futures markets expect the easing cycle to extend into 2026, with at least two additional 25-bp cuts priced in, lowering the policy rate to around 3.00%–3.25%.The macro backdrop heading into 2026 is increasingly consistent with a more accommodative Fed. Both the 5-year and 10-year US breakeven inflation rates—key measures of long-term inflation expectations—have eased to around 2.24%, down from peaks of 2.62% and 2.42% in February 2025. This contrasts sharply with the inflation surge that culminated in mid-2022 and underscores that inflation expectations are now well anchored (see Fig. 3).At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield has rolled over from its October 2023 highs and continued to trend lower through 2024 and 2025, signalling softer growth momentum that no longer justifies a restrictive policy stance. Crude oil prices have also weakened steadily, trading closer to the mid-US$50s. Historically, sustained declines in energy prices tend to dampen headline inflation and ease cost-push pressures.Taken together, these conditions reduce the risk of a policy-driven inflation resurgence and strengthen the case for further easing. The Fed appears to have both the justification and the flexibility to pursue a more assertive easing path in 2026 to support growth without undermining price stability. A dovish Fed heading into 2026 is therefore likely to remain a key tailwind for the ongoing major bullish trend in global equity markets.We now turn to the technical outlook for three major global stock indices that are likely poised to outperform in 2026.Laggard Dow Jones Industrial Average shows potential outperformance over AI-driven Nasdaq 100 zoom_out_map Fig. 4: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index, momentum, value factors, US Treasury yield curve as of 26 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 5: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index major trend as of 26 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) Financials account for the largest sector weight in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, at roughly 27%, which helps explain its relative underperformance versus the Nasdaq 100 in 2025. The Nasdaq 100, with around 64% exposure to the Technology sector, has been the primary beneficiary of the AI-driven productivity narrative.Looking ahead, a continuation of the Fed’s rate-cut cycle into 2026 could set the stage for a rotation within US equities. Lower interest rates tend to favour non-technology stocks with more attractive valuations and resilient earnings growth, raising the likelihood of a catch-up rally as the AI-centric advance broadens beyond mega-cap technology.Rates and factor signals are already hinting at this shift. The US Treasury yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) has re-steepened from 0.48% on 29 October 2025 to 0.53% on 7 November 2025, coinciding with a bullish breakout in the ratio of the S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (with a 35% weighting in Financials) relative to the S&P 500 ETF (see Fig. 4). In contrast, the ratio of the S&P 500 Momentum ETF (36% weighted toward Information Technology) versus the S&P 500 ETF broke down on 3 November 2025, signalling waning relative leadership from momentum-heavy tech.Taken together, a re-steepening yield curve and the emerging outperformance of the value factor point to improving relative prospects for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026. To preserve its major uptrend, the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy for Dow futures) needs to hold above the 44,975/44,260 long-term pivotal support zone (see Fig. 5) for a fresh bullish impulsive move, opening up scope for the next major resistances to come in at 49,220/49,670, 51,630, and 53,140/53,590.Conversely, a failure to defend the 44,260 key support level would threaten the broader uptrend and raise the risk of a deeper corrective decline toward the next major supports at 40,830 and potentially 36,620.Next, we turn to what may lie ahead for the Hong Kong and Japanese stock markets in 2026.Japan's economy strengthens with robust positive earnings revisions zoom_out_map Fig. 6: Japan Citigroup Economic Surprise Index as of 22 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) zoom_out_map Fig. 7: Japan Citigroup Earnings Revision Index as of 19 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Japan’s economic momentum has strengthened steadily since the start of the year. As of 22 December 2025, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (ESI) for Japan has surged to 60.30, its highest level since 9 October 2023, rebounding sharply from a trough of -52.2 on 6 December 2024 (see Fig. 6). The ESI gauges how incoming economic data compares with market expectations, with readings above zero indicating consistent upside surprises.In parallel, analyst sentiment toward Japanese corporates has turned increasingly positive. Citigroup’s Earnings Revision Index (ERI) for Japan, which measures the balance of upward versus downward EPS forecast revisions, stands at 0.38 as of 19 December 2025, higher than 0.26 recorded on 5 December 2025, according to MacroMicro. Japan now leads major regions on this metric, ahead of the US (0.0), Europe (-0.36), and the UK (0.13), underscoring Japan as the market with the strongest earnings optimism at present (see Fig. 7).Long-term secular Nikkei 225 bulls are still in control zoom_out_map Fig. 8: Japan 225 CFD Index major trend as of 26 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) Price action in the Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy for Nikkei 225 futures) has remained firmly within a major bullish trend since its decisive breakout from a 12-month consolidation in early August 2025 (see Fig. 8).The index went on to register a fresh all-time high of 52,664 on 4 November 2025, before undergoing an 8.8% multi-week medium-term correction that bottomed at 48,011 on 21 November 2025.Notably, the pullback found support at the rising 50-day moving average and the lower boundary of the ascending channel originating from the 7 April 2025 low of 30,343, signalling that the broader uptrend remains intact.Watch the 45,955 key long-term pivotal support; as long as it holds, the major bullish impulsive up move sequence remains intact, and a break above 52,840/53,310 sees the next major resistances coming in at 56,540/57,130, and 58,520.Conversely, a decisive weekly close below 45,955 would invalidate the bullish bias and raise the risk of a deeper corrective decline toward the next major support zone at 42,520/41,620, also near the 200-day moving average.Deflationary risk has subsided in China zoom_out_map Fig. 9: China inflation and housing price trends as of Nov 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) China grappled with the risk of a deflationary spiral from 2020 to 2024, driven by the pandemic’s aftershocks, the bursting of the property bubble, and a period of less business-friendly policy toward the private sector, most notably the e-commerce industry. These deflation fears fed a negative feedback loop in both China and Hong Kong stock markets, leading to pronounced underperformance versus global peers over the past four years.More recently, however, targeted accommodative measures from Beijing appear to be gaining traction. China’s three-year decline in consumer prices excluding food and energy has reversed, with core CPI rising 1.2% y/y in November 2025, its fastest pace since February 2024, after steadily recovering from a trough of -0.1% in February 2025 (see Fig. 9).The heart of China’s deflation risk remains the property sector, given the powerful wealth effect where real estate accounts for roughly 70% of household retirement assets. A sustained turnaround in property prices would likely lift consumer confidence, revive domestic demand, and reinforce the nascent recovery in core inflation. Against this backdrop, an improving macro environment in China increases the likelihood that the major bullish trend in Hong Kong equities, which began in January 2024, can be sustained.Watch the 27,500 key resistance on the Hang Seng Index zoom_out_map Fig. 10: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index major trend as of 24 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy for Hang Seng Index futures), has extended its multi-month rally to a year-to-date high of 27,401 on 29 September 2025, just shy of its major resistance at 27,500, a long-term descending trendline that has capped previous bullish advances since the all-time high of 33,495 on 29 January 2018 (see Fig. 10).A weekly close above 27,500 would signal a potential major bullish breakout, with the next key resistance levels at 29,420 and 31,120. On the flipside, failure to hold the pivotal long-term support at 22,670 could trigger a deeper corrective decline, potentially targeting the next support zone between 19,700 and 19,030. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Christmas Trading can be both uneventful and chaotic – some traders rush to exit their long-held positions to take a stress-free holiday rest.The absence of counteracting parties leads to more erratic flows, as seen in this morning’s Stock Market action.But away from the traditional Christmas Stock Market trading, Metals trade around global exchanges on a different set of fundamentals.And it seems that they are the most beneficent victims of Santa's flow.Just today, Gold came very close to $4,500 before retracting somewhat, but allowed Silver, Platinum, and Palladium to reach multi-year highs (or set new records in the case of Silver).Ranging from 0.70% for the Yellow Metals to above 5.50% for Platinum and Palladium, they are grabbing all the attention of the few traders that still have skin in the game before 2025 ends. zoom_out_map A look at the daily performance in Metals, December 23, 2025 – Source: TradingView. XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium It could be the final bouts of volatility for Markets, but keep a close eye on whether geopolitical tensions arise, which could add more fuel to Commodities.As many institutions are out to defend certain products, you can also attempt to capture some rare holiday algorithmic patterns – these require thorough study of charts and may not be found until a while.Let's dive in a quick overview of the daily flows and some short-term trading levels for Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) and Platinum (XPT/USD). Read More:Palladium (XPD/USD) on Track for $2,000 as Metals Rally Extends – Price OutlookWTI Outlook: Oil Bounces From Channel Lows — Major Reversal in 2026?Markets Today: Gold, Silver Extend Gains, Novo Nordisk Rises 7%+ as US GDP Data Lies AheadGold 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, December 23, 2025 – Source: TradingView The breakout towards new all-time highs is currently ongoing. Watch reactions when prices reach the $4,575 level (high of the measured move).Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:Resistance Levels$4,497 Current all-time HighPotential new ATH resistance (Measured Move) $4,500 to $4,5751.618% Fibonacci Projection $4,687Support LevelsPreceding All-time High Pivot $4,300 to $4,400Key Support and Triangle top $4,200 to $4,24050-Day MA $4,150Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000 (200-period MA)$3,700 consolidation Support$3,500 Major SupportPlatinum 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Platinum (XPT/USD) 4H Chart, December 23, 2025 – Source: TradingView Platinum is just going mental at this point.Up 10% in the past 24 hours and not stopping anywhere, it really could attempt a move to catch up to Gold if things continue that way (even if there's quite some way to go towards that target).Platinum Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levels$2,299 March 2008 All-time HighSession highs $2,275$2,500 Psychological LevelSupport levelsMay 2008 Support $2,050 to $2,100$1,950 Past Day Highs retest support2025 Channel upper bound $1,850 (Mini-Support)2013 and Current year highs $1,700 to $1,750$1,620 to $1,650 FOMC SupportMajor High Timeframe pivot $1,500 to $1,600Silver 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, December 23, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver is still following closely its upward-channel and hasn't retraced in quite a while.A potential Fibonacci-resistance is coming up at around $71.40 at a confluence with the top of the 4H Channel. Above this there will be not resistance until the $75 psychological level.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD) trading:Resistance Levels:Daily Highs and potential Resistance $70 to $71.40$71.10 Session highs$75 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels:Pivot $65 to $67 at Previous All-time HighsMajor Intraday Support $61 to $63Pre-FOMC Support $58.00 to $60 Safe Trades and Merry Christmas!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Rises 1.9% as Global Equities Rise Most Read: Santa Claus Rally Strategy: How to Trade the S&P 500's Most Reliable Seasonal PatternStock markets around the world are rising as investors feel optimistic about a strong finish to the year, encouraged by recent gains in the US.A key index that tracks global stocks has gone up for three days in a row, reaching its highest level since mid-December, and is predicted to grow nearly 20% in 2025.In Asia, Japan's Nikkei climbed 1.9% because a cheaper currency is expected to help companies that sell goods abroad make more money. Similarly, Chinese stocks saw gains, while Singapore's market reached a new record high.European Session - European Shares On Course to Open Lower European stock markets are expected to open with small losses on Monday, pausing after last week's rally as trading slows down for the short Christmas holiday week.Even with lighter trading activity expected, investor confidence remains high due to renewed excitement about AI companies and hopes that the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next year. Traders are also less worried about the European Central Bank raising rates in the future.However, there is still some caution as investors watch the war in Ukraine, following comments from Russia that recent peace proposals haven't improved the situation. In economic news, the UK is set to release its final growth figures later today, while early trading shows major European indexes down by roughly 0.1% to 0.2%.On the FX front, the Japanese yen remained very weak on Monday, hovering near record lows against the Euro and Swiss Franc.Traders feel confident betting against the yen because the Bank of Japan hasn't signaled any plans to raise interest rates, even though government officials have warned they might step in to support the currency.The yen also sat near an 11-month low against the US dollar and a 17-month low against the Australian dollar. While the US dollar dipped slightly to 157.37 yen, it remains close to recent highs.Meanwhile, the Swiss franc reached a new record against the yen, and the Australian dollar climbed to its strongest level since last July.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Silver was the standout performer in commodities, hitting a new record high of $69.44/oz, which brings its total gains for the year to nearly 140%. Gold also increased in value, rising 1.5% to breach $4400/oz.In the energy market, oil prices went up after the US stopped a Venezuelan oil tanker and began chasing another, marking the third such incident in under two weeks. As a result, Brent crude rose 0.8% to $60.96 a barrel, and US crude increased by the same percentage to $56.99 a barrel.Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - GDP Data, US/Asia Events, and Silver's BreakoutPlatinum reaches $2,000; Palladium breaks 2023 Highs – Metals OutlookUSD Stabilizes on CPI Doubts: USD/JPY Ahead of BoJ Decision and FX OverviewEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts It is a quiet day on the calendar for European data releases but there are a few ECB policymakers who will be speaking during the session.The US session is equally quiet from a data perspective with Canadian PPI the only major data release during the session. Markets may focus on rising geopolitical risk as the US ramps up pressure on Venezuela. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 index is eyeing a pullback this morning.However, given the mood around global equity futures in the Asian session, i wonder whether such a move will prove sustainable?The index is approaching support at the 9850-9860 area with a break below opening up a deeper correction toward the 9800 and 9760 support areas.The period-14 RSI does remain comfortably above the 50 neutral level which hints at bullish momentum remaining strong at the present time.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, December 22. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (19/12/2025): In today's episode, TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss the Bank of Japan's decision to hike rates and the subsequent health of the yen carry trade. Otherwise, Nick and Jonny discuss the somewhat dovish forward guidance from the Bank of Japan and its impact on world equities and cryptocurrency markets. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Since yesterday's CPI report, metals have been rising through irregular waves, but still rallying more consistently than other asset classes.Platinum (XPT/USD) is once again leading the pack as its push toward decade highs continues, but one metal that we haven't discussed much is Palladium (XPD/USD), which is also printing new multi-year highs.It appears that a new trend for alternative precious metals has begun.Unlike the more popularly traded Gold and Silver, both Platinum and Palladium derive significant value from their extreme rarity and highly specialized industrial uses. zoom_out_map Metal Performance in 2025. December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView. Palladium is essential to make Power cells, medical equipment, and automobile catalytic converters.After being subject to a gigantic squeeze in 2023, the metal's performance was heavily hindered for a while, but it is now playing catch-up in a high fashion.We will cover the metal in a detailed analysis next week, as we dive into intraday charts and technical levels for Palladium, Platinum, and Gold – Which is attempting a run to its all-time highs. Read More:US Indexes Outlook: Santa Rally finally showing up? – Risk-Appetite improves after US CPI missYen weakness despite higher interest ratesWTI Outlook: Oil Bounces From Channel Lows — Major Reversal in 2026?Palladium (XPD/USD) 8H Chart zoom_out_map Palladium 8H Chart, December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Palladium is up a staggering 31% since November 20th and Fed's Williams' Rate Cut indication.Current trading levels are actually overbought, pointing towards a short-term consolidation or retracement.In the event of a retracement, keep an eye on the $1,650 level for bull/bear indications:Bouncing higher from there should see major continuation towards the 2023 Highs of $2,000Breaking lower should test the lower bounds of the Major Ascending Channel around $1,500.Palladium Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levelsSession highs $1,7602023 Highs Resistance $1,800 to $1,830December 2022 Pivot $1,980$3,015 2022 All-time HighsSupport levelsCurrent Pivot $1,650 to $1,670$1,500 Major Psychological SupportNovember Support $1,350$1,100 September Lows SupportPlatinum (XPT/USD) 8H Chart – Breaking $2,000 zoom_out_map Platinum 8H Chart, December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView To get a detailed analysis of the Metal, don't hesitate to check our recent Silver and Platinum checkup!Platinum Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levelsSession highs $2,010May 2008 Pivotal Resistance $2,050 to $2,100$2,300 2008 All-time highsSupport levels$1,950 Past Day Highs retest support2025 Channel upper bound $1,850 (Mini-Support)2013 and Current year highs $1,700 to $1,750$1,620 to $1,650 FOMC SupportMajor High Timeframe pivot $1,500 to $1,600Gold (XAU/USD) 8H Chart and Technical Levels – On track to New ATH zoom_out_map Gold 8H Chart, December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold was struggling to generate momentum as other metals have been stealing its spotlight.After almost wicking to new all-time highs during the CPI session, the precious metal came back to retest its pre-data Support.Holding strongly between $4,300 to $4,350, momentum pulling higher points to an immediate test of the $4,380 record.A clean break may see the Triangle Formation measured move (observed here) to materialize, hinting at $4,450 to $4,500 highs.Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:Resistance Levels$4,374 CPI Highs$4,380 Current all-time HighsFib-Induced potential new ATH resistance $4,500 to $4,575Session highs $4,350 (and counting)Support LevelsHourly Pivot and Triangle top $4,200 to $4,24050-Day MA $4,150Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000 (200-period MA)$3,700 consolidation Support$3,500 Major Support Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Equities are closing the week on a better note as the CPI report triggers pricing for further rate cuts in 2026.The roles seem to have reversed compared to last week's Fed Speaker communications. NY Fed President Williams pointed towards a further pause this morning, suggesting the CPI data may have been affected by "distortions," while Goolsbee seemed positively surprised by the inflation figures.But another, more fundamental theme could be lifting stocks:Traders are pricing in the Bank of Japan hitting the brakes on future hikes. After an 11-month pause, the BoJ just hiked rates to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years.While markets have been concerned that BoJ tightening would diminish carry trade opportunities as rate differentials converge, the central bank's lack of hawkish guidance suggests rates will stay put for a while.This supports prospects for further carry trade-sponsored stock purchases—right on time for a Santa Rally. zoom_out_map Morning US Data releases – MarketPulse Economic Calendar Consumer sentiment also just missed again, by a small margin.The real concern is for the Inflation expectations which are ticking up on the short-term – The next report should be interesting.Major volatility could show up ahead as traders get ready for contract expirations of Options and Futures on Indexes, known as Quadruple Witching.Keep that in mind in case you see major movements towards the session and weekly close.Let's dive into our daily outlook and technical levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:WTI Outlook: Oil Bounces From Channel Lows — Major Reversal in 2026?Yen weakness despite higher interest ratesNikkei 225: A gradual interest rate hike stance by BoJ maintains the bullish trendSemiconductors and Tech lead the Market Higher zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:21 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 19, 2025 The session is not as widely green as yesterday, but still quite positive. Consumer related sectors (Defensive Equities) are lagging. zoom_out_map Per Sector Stock performance – December 11, 2025. Source: TradingView A strong bounce in Tech!Dow Jones 1H Chart – slow rebound zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The outlook for the Dow is far from negative but questions remain if the recent action is one of a range or a double-bottom.To get a better answer, look at whether buyers manage to break above the 48,460 November Highs.Failing to do so would point to a 48,000 to 48,500 range.Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsAll-time High resistance between 48,700 to 48,886Session highs 48,350November ATH 48,500, acting as resistance possible range highs)50,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target (50,159)Support LevelsPsychological Pivot at 48,000 – (Range?) lowsPre-NFP Mini-Support 47,500 to 47,650 (recent lows)Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200August highs and November Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 1H Chart – So nothing happened? zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The downtrend in the Nasdaq has officially stalled with short-term action now back in a bull channel.A major test for bulls will once again be the 25,500 Resistance.Failing to break it should lead to rangebound action between 25,000 to 25,500.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels25,227 daily highs to break for a bull breakoutMini-Resistance 25,500 +/- 75 ptsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support Levels25,050 Channel retest and 2H 50 MA24,500 Main supportOctober and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 1H Chart – Inverse Head & Shoulders forming? zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 1H Chart could be the most bullish looking one if the Inverse Head and Shoulders materializes.Breaking above 6,850 with high volume would point to a test of the 6,930 All-time Highs or even a few points higher.Sentiment will need to stay positive!S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsRange High Resistance 6,880 to 6,9006,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896Mid Range 6,850ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lowsMini-Support 6,720 to 6,750 (current test)Session lows 6,750Support 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways BoJ policy supportive for equities: The BoJ’s expected 25bp hike to 0.75% and guidance for a gradual, data-dependent tightening path into 2026 signal policy normalization without destabilising financial conditions, reducing downside risks for Japanese equities.Stronger JPY no longer a headwind: Domestic-oriented Nikkei 225 stocks are outperforming export-heavy names, indicating that modest JPY strength and improving consumer confidence can coexist with a sustained equity uptrend.Technical backdrop constructive: The Nikkei 225 is showing signs of a minor bullish reversal after a shallow pullback, with momentum indicators improving and key supports holding, suggesting limited risk of a major corrective decline. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has hiked its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.75% on Friday, 19 December 2025, as expected, its highest level in 30 years.In its policy statement, the BoJ said it will continue raising the policy rate as long as economic activity and inflation evolve in line with its projections, signalling a conditional bias toward further tightening. Policymakers noted that the probability of achieving the baseline outlook has increased, underscoring growing confidence that inflation is becoming more entrenched rather than transitory.The BoJ also reaffirmed its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target in a sustainable and stable manner, while guarding against overly aggressive tightening that could disrupt financial conditions. Officials highlighted that wages and prices are expected to rise at a moderate and coordinated pace, reinforcing the view that inflation is increasingly underpinned by domestic demand rather than one-off cost shocks.In essence, the BoJ is signalling its intention to continue a gradual rate-hiking path into 2026, with a clear emphasis on managing volatility in the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market. Policymakers are wary that a rapid, one-way rise in 10-year and 30-year JGB yields could tighten financial conditions prematurely and undermine Japan’s economic growth prospects.Markets now await further clarity from BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference at 0630 GMT on how cautiously the BoJ intends to proceed into 2026 and beyond.The Nikkei 225 advanced for a second straight session, up 0.8% intraday at the time of writing, rebounding after a four-day pullback that began on Friday, 12 December 2025.We will now highlight several technical factors that support the BoJ’s current gradual and bit-sized monetary tightening policy, which, in turn, leads to a stronger JPY, and is unlikely to trigger a significant major corrective decline sequence in the Nikkei 225.Gone are the days when a broad major bullish trend of the Nikkei 225 requires a weak JPY to support it.Japan’s equities with high domestic exposure are outperforming exporters zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Nikkei 225 Domestic Exposure & Global Exposure indices major trends as of 18 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) A stronger JPY is likely to negate the current higher cost-of-living squeeze in Japan, in turn, further boosting consumer confidence, which leads to an increase in domestic spending.Within the Nikkei 225, stocks with a higher reliance on domestic Japanese sales are outperforming export-heavy names, particularly technology equipment and automobile manufacturers with greater overseas exposure.Since 9 December 2025, the Nikkei 225 Domestic Exposure 50 Index (domestic sales) has outperformed the Nikkei 225 Global Exposure 50 Index (international sales), where its ratio jumped by 5.4% as of Thursday, 18 December 2025 (see Fig. 1).Hence, this observation supports the view that a gradual BoJ rate-hiking cycle is unlikely to trigger a major corrective decline in the Nikkei 225.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) of Nikkei 225 – Minor bullish reversal in progress zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Japan 225 CFD Index minor trend as of 19 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 49,130 short-term pivotal support on the Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures), and a clearance above near-term resistance of 49,850 (also the 20-day and 50-day moving averages) is likely to reinforce a potential minor bullish reversal towards the next intermediate resistances of 50,490 and 50,985 in the first step (see Fig. 2).Key elements The recent 4-day decline has stalled at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor bullish impulsive up move sequence from 21 November 2025 low to 12 December 2025 high.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash bullish momentum conditions since the emergence of a bullish divergence signal on 18 December 2025 at its oversold region.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below 49,130 invalidates the bullish bias on the Japan 225 CFD Index to expose the 48,450 key medium-term pivotal support next. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 18Market flows took a strongly positive tone following a CPI report that delivered a massive miss—2.7% vs. 3.1% expected. However, the initial euphoria stalled as economists dove into the details, uncovering significant adjustments by the BLS that cast doubt on the data's validity.The doubts triggered a pump-and-dump looking action across asset classes. Gold briefly breached its record highs before correcting sharply, and stocks followed a similar trajectory: a wonderful open erased by mean-reverting flows around the mid-session bell. zoom_out_map Nasdaq 15M Chart – Chaotic action! – December 18, 2025. Source: TradingView Despite the whiplash, most assets managed a bounce in the late afternoon, though the overall mood remains confused. The Magnificent 7 saved the day, driving the Nasdaq back above the 25,000 handle to close approximately 1.20% higher.In other news, Donald Trump’s Media & Technology Group (DJT) announced a strategic pivot, securing a major deal with TAE Technologies. The partnership aims to leverage Nuclear Fusion to combat the soaring energy costs of running AI models. The move sent DJT stock up 44% on the session.The US President also delivered a gift to the public, declaring December 24th and 26th as official federal holidays—good news for Americans heading into the festive season.Apart from this, there has been two major Central Bank rate decisions: the Bank of England cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75% in a Hawkish Cut, and the ECB held their rates at 2%.Traders are still not done with the session as the evening reserves a Huge Bank of Japan Rate Decision where a Hike is heavily expected. zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap (16:00 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 18, 2025 Read More:USD Stabilizes on CPI Doubts: USD/JPY Ahead of BoJ Decision and FX OverviewNVDA and Tech Stocks rebound again after CPI miss – US Index OutlookWTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Flows couldn't be more volatile today.The action whipsawed across all asset-classes as the day unrolled – The Nasdaq is the winner out of all the confusion.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 18 – Source: OANDA Labs Chaotic and low range action across all currencies in today's FX action.Things will surely get interesting with tonight's Bank of Japan event.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The evening session wraps up soon with National CPI figures from Japan releasing promptly. Market expectations are for the National CPI YoY to remain steady at 3%. This inflation report tends to move markets less than the Tokyo CPI FYI.But the most important event of the Evening largely remains the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision. The BoJ is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point hike, raising the benchmark rate to 0.75%—its highest level in nearly 30 years. Communications from the BoJ will be closely tracked in the current doubts about the Central Banks' ability to show strength against a very stimulatory Government.Tomorrow's session (Friday, December 19) will also present an intense finale to an already busy week as year flows can be expected to strongly calm down for the following weeks.The 02:00 A.M. European stretch drops high-impact Retail Sales data for the UK, with the market looking for a rebound to 0.4% MoM following a previous contraction. The North American session 8:30 A.M. ET starts with Canadian Retail Sales. The market is bracing for a flat 0% MoM reading for October. Finally, the 10:00 A.M. stretch brings the US into the spotlight with Existing Home Sales and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures.Traders will focus on Inflation Expectations, currently penciled in at 4.1% for the 1-year outlook, to see if consumer sentiment finally aligns with the Fed's cooling goals.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Today's highly anticipated CPI report has sent conflicting signals across the board, leaving economists, traders, and analysts scratching their heads.As debates heat up and early morning moves reverse across all asset classes, we take a closer look at the Major FX pairs—including USD/JPY—ahead of tonight's key flows.The US Dollar had been falling consistently since Tuesday's Non-Farm Payrolls report, allowing most majors (with the notable exception of a struggling AUD) to outperform the Greenback.However, as traders cast doubts on the integrity of a clouded CPI report, the Dollar has halted its descent quite suddenly. zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, December 18, 2025 - Source: TradingView If the report is indeed incomplete and inflation proves to be stickier than the initial weak print suggests, the path to 2026 rate cuts becomes far less certain.This would trigger a sharp reversal in FX and Market sentiment, supporting the Dollar somewhat.Market participants will now have to wait until January 13th when the next CPI report is expected, to get a definitive read on price pressures.Let's dive into our Dollar Index (DXY) and Major Pair technical levels (USD/JPY, USD/CAD, and EUR/USD) to spot how the things are shaping up amidst the noise. Read More:Participants are doubting the CPI report – Market UpdateNVDA and Tech Stocks rebound again after CPI miss – US Index OutlookWTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY)) 1H Chart – December 18, 2025. Source: TradingView After marking bi-monthly lows just yesterday, the Dollar Index has reverted its descent quite suddenly.Keep a close eye on the 200-H Moving Average that served as selling point throughout its entire correction.A close above the MA would confirm a reversal higherRejecting it would imply further downside – The price action doesn't look as bearish anymore (at least for now)Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.50 to 98.80 Pivot Zone98.65 Channel Highs98.58 (200-Hour Moving Average)Pivot turned Resistance 99.25 to 99.50100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highsSupport Levels98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips) – Current test97.87 Daily lows97.40 to 97.80 August Range SupportMini-support 98.502025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportUSD/JPY 1H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/JPY 1H Chart – December 18, 2025. Source: TradingView USD/JPY had been moving in quite a volatile range between 155.00 and 157.00 since the past few weeks but volatility has contained suddenly.Reactions at the Bank of Japan will be fast, but traders should look at these levels:A break and close above the Short-Timeframe Resistance 156.80 to 157.00 hints at a test of the Yearly Highs, implying further upside (157.895)The inverse, a break and close below the Short timeframe support 154.50 to 155.00 should see major continuation.Don't forget to check out our preview for the Bank of Japan event right here:BoJ preview: Interest rate hike baked in, what’s next for the JPY (further appreciation)?Levels to place on your USD/JPY charts:Support Levels:Session Lows 154.50 and Short-timeframe support153.00 to 154.00 Key Resistance now Pivot50-Day MA 153.00150.00 Psychological Support and 50-Week MA146.00 August Range Main SupportResistance Levels:Weekly highs 156.00Short-Timeframe Resistance 156.80 to 157.002025 Highs and April 2024 peaks 158.80 to 160.001990 and July 2024 Peak 161.00 to 162.00USD/CAD 1H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/CAD 1H Chart – December 18, 2025. Source: TradingView USD/CAD Sellers have came to a stalling point after quite a strong correction.The key to the upcoming action is whether bulls manage to retake the hand today (implying a test of the FOMC Highs at 1.38730) or if the action gets rangebound.Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:Resistance Levels1.38 Handle Major Pivot +/- 150 pips and 4H MA 501.38730 FOMC Highs1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance1.40 ResistanceSupport Levels50-Hour MA (immediate support) – 1.3710August support 1.3750Past week lows 1.37301.3660 July Breakout support1.3550 Main 2025 SupportEUR/USD 1H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map EUR/USD 1H Chart – December 18, 2025. Source: TradingView After breaking above its prior range 1,000 pips below, the actions remains sideways overall. Expect a range between 1.17 to 1.18 until further momentum leads to a breakout.Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance Levels1.1630 to 1.1670 Pivot zone (range Highs)1.1750 mini-resistanceResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 ZoneWeekly highs 1.1656Support Levels1.1470 to 1.15 range support4H MA 200 Mini-support 1.161901.1475 to 1.15 Support Zone1.1350 to 1.14 SupportSession lows 1.14966 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Things have changed quite remarkably since the broadly optimistic morning session.As pointed out in this interesting report, there might have been some selection biases in the BLS construction of this CPI release, tilting the numbers to the downside.Accuracy issues for data releases may hurt confidence prospects for Public data going forward.With the next CPI report expected on January 13, traders will want to see if major revisions to today's number will actually affect the Rate Cut expectations.Gold tested a new All-time high $4,400 before falling sharply, Stock markets are making new lows and Bonds are selling off.These flows don't inspire much confidence. zoom_out_map Market reactions to CPI 15M Charts for S&P 500, Oil, 10-Year Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin and the USD. December 18 – Source: TradingView (Updated at 12:40 ET) Read More:WTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?Metals explode: Silver (XAG/USD) hits record $66 as Platinum (XPT/USD) breaks 2011 highsMarkets Today: Nikkei at 3-Week Lows, Silver, Gold Hold the High Ground as BoE Cut Rate 25 bps, ECB Next Flows are volatile and are expected to stay like this towards the end of the week before things settle down for Holiday Trading.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Equity Markets welcomed a large miss on the US Inflation report from this morning.While the weekly labor Jobless Claims report continued to affirm a softening but not crashing employment picture, high concerns on US Inflation and its prospects for 2026 were hurting Appetite for Stocks.Combined with quite gloomy reports from Fed Members, US NFP and the latest Bank of America Survey, it seemed that the trading days leading to the end of the calendar year would not be as joyful as early 2025 was.But the huge miss in this morning's CPI report helped to ease the uncertainty. A 0.4% miss on the 3.1% high expectations have largely helped Swap Traders to price in higher odds of a more prolonged Rate Cut cycle from the Fed. A great booster for Equity demand that could underpin the rally for US Index higher levels ahead. The rest is to see if the data wasn't biased in some sort as doubts remain from the way the CPI report was conducted. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reopened after a 1.5 month closure which clouded the inflation picture and data collection. zoom_out_map Minimal US Rate in 2026 – Change in Cut pricing since the FOMC (More cuts priced). Source: FedWatch Tool (CME) The ongoing rally is a strong one and with fair reasons.Stocks rallying to all-time highs were helped by more Rate cut expectations. These expectations were halted due to inflation concerns. But with this report essentially allowing the Fed to maneuver further with the help of lower inflation, the path higher can start again. It will be key to see if the bullish sentiment holds towards the Golden Week and yearly close to conclude yet another bullish Yearly candle for US Stock Markets. And also if new all-time highs can be reached. zoom_out_map Dow Jones Yearly Chart Since 1900 (log scale) – December 2025. Source: TradingView Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500. Read More:US CPI Misses Sharply at 2.7% (3.1% exp); BoE Cuts Rates to 3.75% as ECB Holds at 2% – Market ReactionsWTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?BoJ preview: Interest rate hike baked in, what’s next for the JPY (further appreciation)?Magnificent 7 are Shining Bright, a broadly green picture zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:13 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 18, 2025 Except for the Energy sector, the entire Market is rallying, dragged higher by its Mag 7 Leaders – Best performers of the session.Dow Jones 2H Chart – Erases its past day correction zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – December 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView DJIA bulls have come back strong after the encouraging CPI report to break above the Correction channel.The buying is now stalling at slightly overbought RSI levels so there will be two things to watch around here (Session highs 48,444)Whether Bulls manage to get further momentum to pull prices above the 48,500 mark – Bullish continuationOr a pullback selling comes in if it stalls at a retest of the Channel (+ 2H 50-period MA around 48,250) if the retracement comes all the way back to 48,000, a rangebound picture will be expectedDow Jones technical levels of interest (unchanged from yesterday)Resistance LevelsAll-time High resistance between 48,700 to 48,886Session highs 48,444November ATH 48,300 to 48,500, acting as resistance (testing)50,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target (50,159)Support LevelsPsychological Pivot at 48,000Pre-NFP 47,500 to 47,650 (recent lows)Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200August highs and November Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart – Leading its peers yet again zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – December 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Tech-Heavy Index took the reigns of this session, brought back on the battlefield by its 7 Generals.Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN) are posting their best performances in a while and dragging the other tech stocks with them.Tesla (TSLA) is on track to break new all-time highs in Case you missed it.Overall, there is still some road to cover for bulls, as the index trades 4% away from its 26,182 Record.But having broken its descending channel, things are looking better.Breaching the 25,000 to 25,250 Pivot will be essential if bulls want to retake the Momentum – For now looking Neutral (from bearish).Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels25,227 daily highs to break for a bull breakoutMini-Resistance 25,500 +/- 75 ptsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support Levels25,050 Channel retest and 2H 50 MA24,500 Main supportOctober and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportAn interesting Chart for Santa Rally believers! zoom_out_map S&P 500 Performance after December 15 – Source: X, posted by Ryan Detrick S&P 500 2H Chart – Coming back into its range zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – December 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P makes a comeback right into its 6,800 to 6,900 Range after faking out below the consolidation yesterdayAfter a fakeout, one thing to remember is to keep a close eye on the mid-range level (around 6,850) to spot if bulls fully retake their lost advantage.Rejecting the middle could point to higher odds of another breakdown.Breaking above confirms the return of bulls.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsRange High Resistance 6,880 to 6,9006,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896Mid Range 6,850ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lowsMini-Support 6,720 to 6,750 (current test)Session lows 6,750Support 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 17Yesterday's afternoon session brought some hopes for dip-buying after a rough weekly open, but the reality of uncertain times ahead came right back with a red selling wave.Traders are reflecting on the unusual year ahead.Will it be a Hard Landing? Will the long wars end? Is the AI boom really a bubble?Questions worth many millions.But some more immediate factors are affecting financial flows:Participants are getting ready for a second yearly Bank of Japan rate hike which may reduce carry trade potentials yet again (a strong booster for Markets) and the employment picture for the largest Economy is sending some scary signs.Inflation remains the X factor which could decide whether the Fed has an easy way to cut rates further or not.Stagflation is not friendly for Markets. zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap (16:05 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 16, 2025 Read More:Markets Slide as US Employment Falters – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateEUR/USD Forecast: ECB & US CPI to Drive Price Action, Bulls Remain in Control Above 1.1600 HandleUS Index Analysis: Nasdaq bleeding, S&P 500 and Dow Jones hurtingMetals explode: Silver (XAG/USD) hits record $66 as Platinum (XPT/USD) breaks 2011 highsCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Oil is rallying back quite sharply after reaching its yearly troughs just yesterday – Check out our latest analysis of the Commodity to learn more.For the rest, Risk-Assets took quite a hit after yesterday's hopeful rebound, with all Stock Indexes finishing the session lower.Bitcoin was subject to quite a pump and dump to $90,000, while metals kept rallying ever higher.Platinum actually reached some 14 year highs, breaking the 2008 peak.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 17 – Source: OANDA Labs Today's session was roughly a reversal day of the past week's flows.The Yen gave back some of its advances as traders stop unwinding their positions ahead of the BoJ meeting tomorrow evening.On the other hand the US dollar rallied back higher after its negative post-NFP trading.Expect A LOT of movement in FX tomorrow.If you don't believe me, check out the Economic Calendar just below.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The Evening to tomorrow should be quite a ride for FX traders.The evening session will start with Kiwi GDP for New Zealand Dollar traders at 16:45 PM.But tomorrow is the real deal, with a cocktail of Central Bank Rate decisions coupled with some Huge data for the US.To begin with, nothing more than a couple of Rate Decisions for the Bank of England (25 bps cut highly expected) from 4% to 3.75% at 7:00 A.M. ET.Expect dovish communications after the streak of slower data between a miss in Employment and this morning's lower-than-expected (but still high) inflation.(Check out our recent preview for the event right here).The second one will follow shortly after with the ECB Rate Decision at 8:15 A.M. This one should be less eventful but 2026 communications could be interesting.Just 15 minutes after, the long-awaited US CPI number will be released after a long absence for such data.The 8:30 A.M. bell will also bring the weekly Jobless claims data.The afternoon should be calmer, but expect more action later in the day: NZD trade, Japanese inflation until the evening session when the Bank of Japan Rate Hike should be delivered. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.Last week, the FOMC delivered a highly expected 25 bps cut, which was quickly repriced from the final stretch of November trading.But at what cost?As Fed Goolsbee warned, cutting preemptively risks boosting an inflation rate that remains a wildcard—a concern that will be tested by tomorrow’s November CPI report.For equity bulls this is starting to be a real concern: reignited inflation could severely compromise the prospects for future cuts in 2026.The overall theme for US Markets going into next year is one of uncertainty. zoom_out_map US Unemployment Rate since 1980 – Rounding Higher. Source: FRED On one hand, the North American economy is still performing quite well, as seen with Canada’s recent upbeat data and overall strong US GDP numbers.On the other hand, Markets are forward-looking, and participants are starting to wonder if things can get much better from here as valuations could be overextended relative to the current environment.If high prices are met with earnings disappointments, the fallout could be painful.Meanwhile, the Trump Administration continues to surprise investors—who had largely decided to ignore political noise throughout 2025—with renewed geopolitical volatility involving Venezuela.However, there is a glimmer of hope as the Ukraine-Russia conflict finally begins to look a bit more stable.Two real catalysts that could relaunch markets into genuine momentum would be the cancellation of tariffs in 2026, or the appointment of a truly credible Fed Chair.Until then, visibility remains low—things should get at least a bit clearer after tomorrow’s pivotal CPI report. Read More:US Index Analysis: Nasdaq bleeding, S&P 500 and Dow Jones hurtingMetals explode: Silver (XAG/USD) hits record $66 as Platinum (XPT/USD) breaks 2011 highsWTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?North-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones, which got a significant boost from the FOMC rate cut, is the only OECD index trading higher after the past week and a half stretch.But things are looking sour for equities overall. Tech is looking pretty dark – Nasdaq is down 3.70% since last Monday.Bulls will need to hold tight to avoid beginning the next year on a rough start.Dollar Index 8H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 8H Chart, December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index broke its support and just formed a break-retest formation of its preceding support (98.50 to 98.80 Pivot Zone), pointing at further downside.Still, things will be interesting particularly if cuts get pushed back further which once again depends on tomorrow's inflation number.If bears keep control of the action (keep an eye on the downwards channel).The MA 50 to 200 forming a bear cross could also be bringing further reasons for sellers to maintain their activity.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.50 to 98.80 Pivot ZonePivot turned Resistance 99.25 to 99.50100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highsSupport Levels98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips) – Current test97.87 Daily lows97.40 to 97.80 August Range SupportMini-support 98.502025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, December 17, 2025 - Source: TradingView Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, December 17, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The Loonie came strong against the AUD and USD, but these currencies have generally been the weakest of majors of the past few weeks.European currencies keep their hard grip on the Loonie and the USD once again.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 4H Chart, December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels1.38 Handle Major Pivot +/- 150 pips and 4H MA 501.38730 FOMC Highs1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance1.40 ResistanceSupport LevelsAugust support 1.3750Past week lows 1.37301.3660 July Breakout support1.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.