Asia Market Wrap - Markets Steady as Nikkei Retreats Asian stocks were mostly unchanged as traders considered positive signs of progress toward ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict.Japan's Nikkei index rose at first but then fell 0.1%, weighed down by a 2.5% drop in SoftBank Group after it revealed a $2 billion investment in struggling U.S. chipmaker Intel.Meanwhile, MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.1%, following small losses in U.S. stocks the day before.Trump Meets Zelensky and Other European Leaders On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that the U.S. would help guarantee Ukraine's security in any deal to end the war with Russia, though the details of this support were unclear.Trump made this promise during a major summit at the White House, where he met with Zelenskiy and European allies after his Friday meeting in Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zelenskiy called the promise "a big step forward" and said the guarantees would be finalized within a week or so. He also mentioned Ukraine’s plan to buy $90 billion worth of U.S. weapons.The meeting had a much friendlier tone compared to a tense Oval Office meeting in February, where Trump and Vice President JD Vance criticized Zelenskiy. However, a peace deal still seems far off.Before the talks began, Russia’s Foreign Ministry rejected the idea of NATO troops being involved in securing a peace deal, complicating Trump’s offer. Both Trump and Zelenskiy expressed hope that the meeting would lead to direct talks with Putin, whose forces continue to advance in eastern Ukraine.Later on Monday, Trump said he had called Putin to arrange a meeting between him and Zelenskiy, followed by a three-way summit with all three leaders. According to a European source, Putin suggested this sequence. While the Kremlin hasn’t confirmed the plan, a U.S. official said the Putin-Zelenskiy meeting might happen in Hungary within two weeks, as mentioned by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.The last direct talks between Russia and Ukraine were in Turkey in June, but Putin declined Zelenskiy’s invitation to meet in person and sent a lower-level delegation instead.Zelenskiy has mostly dismissed Putin's proposals from the Alaska meeting. These included giving up the remaining quarter of Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, which is mostly under Russian control.Any decision to give up Ukrainian land would need to be approved through a public vote.The war has caused over a million casualties on both sides, including thousands of mostly Ukrainian civilians, and has devastated large parts of the country. Source: LSEG European Open - FTSE Eyes Gains, Defense Stocks Slip European stocks opened slightly higher, with the STOXX 600 index rising 0.1%, along with Britain's FTSE 100. France's CAC 40 gained 0.2%, and Germany's DAX increased by 0.1%.However, European defense stocks fell by 1.3%, with Swedish military contractor Saab dropping 3.7%.UK Stocks- Factors to WatchAssura: Ed Smith has stepped down as chairman after seven years. Jonathan Davies, a senior board member, will take over.UK Motor Finance: A court ruling in the UK could save car finance companies billions in payouts and may lead to more mergers in the industry.IWG: IWG announced a new $130 million share buyback plan for the year and confirmed its annual forecast after reporting a 6% profit increase in the first half due to strong revenue.Rio Tinto: A U.S. court has temporarily stopped a land transfer needed for Rio Tinto and BHP to develop a copper project in Arizona.Shell: Brazil’s Petrobras said it has no plans to invest in ethanol production or distribution with Raizen, a joint venture involving Shell.Shein IPO: Shein is considering moving its headquarters back to China to get approval for a Hong Kong IPO, after previous attempts to list in New York and London.On the FX front, the dollar dropped 0.2% to 147.64 yen. The euro increased by 0.1% to $1.1670, while the dollar index, which measures the dollar against other major currencies, stayed mostly unchanged after rising 0.2% the day before.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices fell on Tuesday, gold stayed stable, and copper prices barely moved as traders remained cautious due to mixed market signals creating uncertainty.For more on Oil, please read WTI Crude Technical: Bearish tone intact as Trump-Zelenskiy meeting loomsEconomic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, a quiet day for Europe and the US.The major event of the day comes from Canada where we will get Canadian CPI data which could stoke some volatility on Canadian Dollar pairs.For more on Canadian inflation, read USD/CAD Eyes Gains Above 100-day MA. Geopolitics, Fed Outlook May Prove to be Stumbling Blocks. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 finally breached the 9200 handle on Friday before a drop of around 100 points.Yesterday saw the index recover with price action showing a change in structure as the FTSE printed a higher high.There is significant support on the two-hour chart, provided by the 100 and 200-day SMA which rests around the 9145 mark.If this level holds, a retest of Fridays all-time highs may come to fruition.A break below the SMAs and a candle close below the swing low at 9127 could open up a move lower and potential retest of the 9048 handle once more.The period-14 RSI has also bounced off the 50 level this morning hinting at bullish momentum.FTSE Daily Chart, August 19. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 18The Trump-Zelenskyy meeting just concluded at around 15:00 ET, leaving place to the ongoing meeting between Trump and a flurry of EU leaders.There has been some doubts relating to some of the demands made by Putin on the meeting that happened past Friday in Anchorage, including a retract of Ukraine from a NATO membership and an official concession of Crimea – Thing deemed "impossible by the Ukrainian President when appearing on Fox.Sentiment degraded a bit to start the day, but the ongoing talks are leaving the market undecided as participants await more news. For that aspect, equities finish the day close to unchanged, forex movement is fairly thin and Cryptos, which were selling off in the morning, mean-reverted back a little (although still finish the session down.)Energy commodities like oil on the other hand, have broken out as a potential end to the ongoing war would imply a much thinner supply.The rest is for Markets to see if the war really comes to an end or not.A ceasefire in the Middle East is also potentially in the building, but will need Israeli confirmation – The Qatari-Egypt proposal has been accepted by Hamas.In the waiting of further headlines, it seems the Market is on edge – expect volatility this week with many different scenarios possible. Read More: US Oil breaks out as bearish catalysts fadeCross-Asset Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Oil is the one outstanding performer of today's session, starting down about 1.5% before finishing up 1%.Cryptos are also mean-reverting higher with sentiment not degrading further.Movement has beenm relatively muted all around asset classes however.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, August 18 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar started the day on a high note, with the DXY still consolidating around the 98.00 handle.The relative strength for the USD also dragged the Loonie higher, particularly with the support of decent performance from Oil.The Euro, Pound and JPY are the biggest laggers of the session in some mean-reversion flows. Forex movement has still been relatively subdued today.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The overnight session has a few data points for APAC currency traders, including the New Zealand PPI (18:45 ET) and the Australian Consumer Confidence.Tomorrow's session is expected to be a bit more movemented – The NA session begins with Canadian Inflation at 8:30 A.M. with a consensus at 0.4% m/m for both the headline and core.The US data will be a tid bit lighter with Housing numbers also at 8:30, still, expect headlines from the Trump-EU meeting.Also, tomorrow night will see the release of the RBNZ Rate Decision, where a 25 bps cut is 97% priced in. The decision will be taken at 22:00 in tomorrow's evening session.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior report, “Dow Jones Technical: Minor pull-back found support with bullish elements sighted in Caterpillar”, published on 4 August 2025.The US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy for Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) has kicked off the anticipated bullish impulsive upswing from the 1 August 2025 minor swing low of 43,335. It rallied by 2.9% from 4 August, surpassing the previous 43,100 record high in December 2024, and rallied to a new all-time intraday high of 45,283 on last Friday, 15 August’s Asian session, before it pulled back and closed at 45,032 at the end of the US session.Let’s now examine its latest medium-term (multi-week) directional bias from a technical analysis perspective. Fig. 1: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 18 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 2: Performances of major global benchmark stock indices from 11 Aug 2025 to 15 Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Preferred trend bias (1-3 weeks) Bullish bias above 44,420 key medium-term pivotal support for the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index, with the next medium-term resistances coming in at 45,660/45,730 and 46,180 (Fibonacci extensions) (see Fig. 1).Key elements The Dow Jones Industrial Average has managed to outperform its peers last week, recording a rally of 2.2% from 11 August 2025 to 15 August 2025, surpassing the S&P 500 (1.2%) and the Nasdaq 100 (0.8%). (see Fig. 2).The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index have continued to oscillate above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 12 August 2025, reinforcing a medium-term uptrend phase.The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index is still hovering above the 50 level, which suggests a potential bullish condition for the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index.The financial sector, holding the largest weight of about 27% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, stands to benefit from the recent steepening of the US Treasury yield curve. The 10–2 year spread widened from 0.4% on 1 August to a three-month high of 0.6% as of Friday, 15 August, a move that could boost banks’ net interest margins and, in turn, create a positive feedback loop for the Dow.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks) Failure to hold at the 44,420 key support negates the bullish tone for a slide to retest the next medium-term support at 43,925 (also the 50-day moving average). A break below it may trigger a deeper corrective decline to expose the major support zone of 43,335/43,130 (also the 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior medium-term outlook report, “WTI Crude Forecast: Risk premium fades, supply pressures mount, bearish trend ahead” published on 8 August 2025.West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude futures) fell as expected, dropping -3.2% to a three-month low of US$62.19 on Wednesday, 13 August 2025. The decline came ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting on Friday, 18 August, where talks are set to focus on a potential ceasefire to end the three-year Russia-Ukraine war. West Texas Oil CFD extended its decline in today’s Asia session, slipping -0.7% intraday following last Friday’s Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska to print a current intraday low of US$62.47 at this time of writing.While President Trump described the talks as “productive,” he provided no details on a potential Russia–Ukraine ceasefire. Markets now turn their focus to today’s meeting between Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, several European leaders, and Trump for further developments.Let’s examine the latest short-term technical elements in the West Texas Oil CFD and its short-term directional bias (1 to 3 days) from a technical analysis perspective. Fig. 1: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 18 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bearish bias in West Texas Oil CFD with key short-term pivotal resistance at US$63.85/64.18 and break below US$62.50 reinforces the continuation of a potential bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at US$61.30 (gap of 2 June 2025) and US$60.60/60.10 (Fibonacci extension and lower boundary of minor descending channel from 31 July 2025 high).Key elements Price actions of the West Texas Oil CFD have continued to oscillate within a minor descending channel from the 31 July 2025 swing high of US$71.33, which suggests a minor downtrend phase remains intact.The upper boundary of the minor descending channel is acting as a key intermediate resistance at US$54.18.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has not flashed out any bullish divergence condition in today’s Asia session and has just staged a retreat right at the 50 level. These observations suggest that short-term bearish momentum remains intact.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above US$64.18 invalidates the bearish scenario and triggers a possible mean reversion rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at US$64.85, US$65.60, and US$66.30 (also the downward sloping 20-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.