In case you missed the headlines, the attention quickly shifted from a potential intervention in Iran to heightened US threats to acquire Greenland by purchase.After the threats over the weekend, EU heads of state are planning an emergency meeting, even as the World Economic Forum in Davos begins. The recent geopolitical intimidation against Denmark and Greenland, combined with additional economic warnings, has prompted the European Union to raise the current 15% tariff rate by 10% if the European Union disagrees, starting February 1.Despite American Markets being closed today for MLK Day, US assets have sold off quite harshly, with the latest tariff and general Trump volatility hurting the US Dollar.On the other hand, the European Central Bank is consolidating its power and stability as Vice President de Guindos officially steps down, with hawk-leaning Croatian Governor Boris Vujcic selected as his replacement.With the latest events and flows, EUR/USD is breaking to the upside and could attract quite a bit of attention (and volatility) for the times to come – keep a close eye on these developments.In the meantime, let's dive into a multi-timeframe EUR/USD technical analysis. Discover:US Markets fall as Greenland tensions flare – Stock Markets closed for MLK DayGreenland as the trigger of a new trade warImpact on US-EU tensions: Risk-off, US dollar subdued, heightened demand for Gold and SilverEUR/USD Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map EUR/USD Daily Chart, January 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is attempting an upside breakout from its end-2025 Descending Channel.Bouncing off of its 200-Day Moving Average (which just caught up from the 10% 2025 rally in the pair), the immediate flows and events could cause a larger breakout from its 6-month long 4,000 pip consolidation.Several hurdles will need to be breached before that.The immediate test comes around 1.1630 which acts as key momentum pivot and coincides with the actual breakout from the Channel.Breaking and closing 1.18 on the weekly could test the 1.20 levels – Such developments would take more timeSuch scenarios exclude a potential Trump TACO where he backs off of his recent words ~ The best scenario for the USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map EUR/USD 4H Chart, January 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Watch if tomorrow closes above or below the 4H-50 MA to confirm a breakout or rejection of the Channel higher bound.Resistance levels1.1640 to 1.1660 Intermediate Pivot and 4H 50-MA (1.16490)1.17 Psychological Level1.1750 minor resistanceMain resistance 1.18 (range Highs)Support levels1.1580 to 1.16 Key Support1.1550 Channel lows1.1470 to 1.15 Pivotal Support (Range Lows)1H Chart zoom_out_map EUR/USD 1H Chart, January 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD shows a more balanced price action as volumes largely fall off (US Traders are off).It will be very interesting to see whether bulls push for a (descending) channel breakout or the 1H 200 MA/4H 50 MA stalls the price action.Rejecting the channel highs would point either to a retest of Sunday lows or (1.15780) or continued downside (lower odds looking at the current situation).Note: The Euro could still be affected negatively from the current development, reason why the Swiss Franc is leading the daily FX flows.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (19/01/2026): In today's episode, OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss geopolitical themes currently at play, and their impact on financial markets, including recent tariff threats from President Trump. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Greenland dispute risks triggering a renewed EU–US trade war, with the US threatening tariffs of up to 25 per cent unless Denmark agrees to sell Greenland.New US tariffs would effectively dismantle last summer’s EU–US trade truce, despite legal uncertainty over their validity.Germany is particularly exposed: exports to the US are already sharply lower, and higher tariffs could significantly hit GDP.The conflict also weakens confidence in the US dollar, as markets fear long-term erosion of its global role due to politicised trade policy.An escalation that goes beyond trade A new trade dispute between the European Union and the United States, triggered by the conflict over Greenland, is sharply increasing the risk of a lasting deterioration in transatlantic relations. Donald Trump has announced plans to impose tariffs of 10 per cent on imports from eight European countries (including Germany and France) from 1 February, with the threat of raising them to 25 per cent from June. According to Washington, avoiding further escalation would require Denmark to agree to the sale of Greenland to the United States.A trade agreement under question If implemented, these measures would effectively dismantle the EU - US trade agreement reached last summer, which was designed to freeze the earlier tariff dispute and cap US duties at 15 per cent. The legal basis for new tariffs in the United States remains highly uncertain, and the Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on the validity of many existing measures. Nevertheless, past experience suggests that legal uncertainty rarely constrains the Trump administration’s use of tariffs as a political tool.Security arguments or domestic politics The official White House narrative frames the issue in terms of security, arguing that Greenland faces growing threats from China and Russia. This claim is weak, given that the United States already enjoys extensive rights on the island, including military deployments, base construction, surveillance of shipping routes and access to natural resources. It therefore seems more plausible that the escalation is driven by domestic political considerations, including the desire to divert attention from internal challenges and to cultivate the image of a president who expands US territory and influence.A big risk for Germany For Germany, the dispute comes at a particularly unfavourable time. Even after the introduction of reciprocal tariffs last year, German exports to the United States fell markedly. In November 2025, the value of German goods exports to the US was over 20 per cent lower than a year earlier. Estimates indicate that the current 15 per cent tariff regime could reduce German GDP by around 0.3 per cent, while an increase to 25 per cent - would deliver a significantly stronger negative shock.Limited options for the European Union The sale of Greenland has been firmly rejected by both Denmark and Greenland’s own authorities. Brussels may continue to pursue diplomatic de-escalation, for instance by offering a stronger NATO presence or expanded security cooperation. However, the scope for compromise appears limited. As a result, the likelihood of a renewed trade conflict is rising, ranging from a formal rejection of the existing agreement with the United States to retaliatory tariffs and, ultimately, the use of anti-coercion instruments against major US corporations.The risk of escalation remains high A major obstacle is the lack of consensus within the EU. While some member states and influential Members of the European Parliament favour a tougher response, others (less exposed to economic damage) see little benefit in reigniting the conflict. As a consequence, although diplomatic de-escalation cannot be ruled out, the probability of a renewed trade war has clearly increased. The dispute over Greenland may thus become the catalyst for a broader and more damaging economic confrontation, with particularly severe and long-lasting consequences for Germany and the European economy as a whole.Dollar weakens as tariff threats revive structural concerns zoom_out_map Chart of the US dollar index, daily data, source: TradingView The US dollar weakened today as markets reassessed the implications of Washington’s renewed tariff threats. Until now, the dollar had been supported by a slower-than-expected increase in trade barriers and by strong investment flows into new technologies, while investors assumed that any escalation would hurt Europe more than the United States. That sense of resilience is now being questioned. Beyond the immediate trade impact, markets are increasingly alert to the longer-term risk that more frequent use of tariffs and economic pressure could undermine the dollar’s role as the world’s dominant currency, encouraging trading partners to reduce their reliance on dollar-based transactions in order to limit political exposure.European stocks slide on fresh US tariff threats zoom_out_map Chart of a CFD contract based on the DAX index, daily data, source: TradingView European equities came under strong pressure on Monday after Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on eight European countries. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell by roughly 1 per cent, reflecting broad weakness in trade-sensitive and risk-exposed stocks. National benchmarks also declined, with France’s CAC 40 down about 1.6 per cent, Germany’s DAX lower by around 1.35 per cent, and the UK’s FTSE 100 easing roughly 0.52 per cent, as investors sold off automakers, luxury names and other export-driven sectors. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Geopolitical escalation drives risk-off: Trump’s tariff threats against key NATO allies over Greenland have sharply intensified US–EU tensions, prompting EU retaliation plans and triggering a broad risk-off move across global equities, particularly in Asia and US index futures.US dollar weak, safe havens surge: Despite risk aversion, the US dollar failed to benefit as the “debasement trade” narrative took hold. Capital rotated into precious metals, with gold and silver surging to fresh record highs.Technical damage to equities, bullish momentum with metals: US Nasdaq 100 and European indices (DAX) show near-term technical breakdowns or mean-reversion risks, while gold and silver maintain bullish acceleration, reinforcing their role as primary geopolitical hedges. “Tarriff Man” is backed with a vengeance. After the “capture” of Venezuela at the start of the new year via the forceful removal of Venezuela’s leadership and the seizure of oil assets to be placed under US control, Trump has set sight on Greenland next, the resource-rich Arctic territory under Denmark’s autonomous control.Trump has escalated his confrontational foreign policy stance by deploying tariff threats against long-standing US allies within NATO, leveraging trade pressure in a dispute over sovereignty and control of Greenland.Trump has threatened eight opposing NATO members over the weekend, including France, Germany, and the UK, with a 10% tariff from 1 February, rising to 25% in June, unless they agree to facilitate a US purchase of Greenland.EU is in discussion of additional retaliation measures against US In retaliation, the EU looks set to void the US-EU trade truce deal agreed last year, as France plans to push the EU to activate its most powerful trade retaliation tool, the anti-coercion instrument, to be used for the first time against the US.All in all, EU officials have aimed to introduce more retaliatory measures, such as new taxes on tech companies or targeted curbs on investments in the EU, beyond the earlier suspended tariffs on 93 billion euros of US products, to counter the US’s pressure on Greenland.To add fuel to the fire, key US White House officials have continued to back Trump, with the US Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated that the US will not back down on taking over Greenland, citing that the EU is too weak to ensure its security.The first reaction is a risk-off sentiment in today’s Asia session at the start of a brand-new trading week, where major Asia Pacific stock markets traded lower, including Japan’s Nikkei 225, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped by 0.6% and 1% in line with the intraday losses of 1% to 1.3% seen on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures at the time of writing.The US dollar does not benefit from this current episode of risk-off as the “debasement trade” narrative takes hold due to the latest US foreign policy towards its European allies, as traders shifted demand towards safe-haven precious metals. The US Dollar Index dropped by -0.2% intraday, while gold and silver rocketed by 1.6% and 3.5% respectively to hit fresh record highs.Here are five intraday (hourly) technical setups on key cross-assets (Nasdaq 100, Hang Seng Index, Germany DAX, Gold & Silver) to watch as the trading session unfolds today in the aftermath of the US trade tariffs threat towards the EU.Nasdaq 100 bearish breakdown below 20-day and 50-day moving averages zoom_out_map Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend of 19 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) have tumbled below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, as well as the ascending channel support from the 21 November 2025 low.These latest observations suggest that the earlier medium-term uptrend phase of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index has been damaged and the likely control shifted back to the bears at least in the near-term (see Fig. 1).Watch the 25,550 key short-term pivotal resistance (also the gapped down formed at the start of today’s Asian session and the 20-day moving average) to maintain the short-term bearish bias to expose the next intermediate supports at 25,133, and 24,870 (close to 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor up move from 18 December 2025 low to 13 January 2026 high).On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above 25,550 invalidates the bearish tone for a retest on the stubborn range resistance of 25,760/25,830 in place since 8 December 2025.Minor mean reversion decline in progress for the Hang Seng Index zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Hong Kong 33 CFD index minor trend of 19 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The medium-term uptrend of the Hong Kong 33 CFD index (a proxy of Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures) remains intact as price actions continue to oscillate above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages.Right now, the recent three bearish reactions from its recent minor range resistance of 27,175 from 13 January to 16 January 2026 have skewed the bias for a potential minor mean reversion decline scenario to seek a retracement back to retest the area around the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (see Fig. 2).Watch the 26,870 key short-term pivotal resistance to expose the next intermediate supports at 26,330, 26,220 (also the 20-day moving average), and even 26,045 (also the 50-day moving average).On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 26,870 negates the bearish tone for a retest on the 27,175 minor range resistance in the first step.Germany's DAX broke below last week’s low, on track towards 20-day MA zoom_out_map Fig. 3: Germany 30 CFD index minor trend of 19 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The Germany 30 CFD index (a proxy of the DAX futures) gapped down and broke last week’s minor range support of 25,260.The odds are now skewed towards a minor mean reversion decline towards its 20-day moving average and the medium-term ascending trendline in place from the 21 November 2025 low.Overall, the medium-term uptrend remains intact with potential intraday weakness in the first step before a renewed bullish move materializes.Watch the 25,260 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential intraday drop to expose the next intermediate supports at 24,860 and 24,760/24,670 (also the 20-day moving average) (see Fig. 3).However, clearance and an hourly close above 25,260 invalidates the bearish tone to seek a retest on the current all-time high area of 25,505, and above it sets sight on the next immediate resistance at 25,800 (Fibonacci extension).Gold (XAU/USD) bullish acceleration mode zoom_out_map Fig. 4: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend of 19 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The current price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) gapped up at the opening of today’s Asian session with a parallel bullish breakout above its former descending trendline resistance seen on its hourly RSI momentum indicator.These observations suggest a potential minor bullish acceleration phase for Gold (XAU/USD). Watch the US$4,595 key short-term pivotal support; a clearance above US$4,684/4,687 near-term resistance opens scope for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$4,720 and US$4,774/4,780 (see Fig. 4).On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below US$4,595 negates the bearish tone for a minor corrective decline towards its 20-day moving average, exposing the next intermediate supports at US$4,560/4,550 and US$4,512.Silver (XAG/USD) relentless uptrend remains intact zoom_out_map Fig. 5: Silver (XAG/USD) minor trend of 19 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$86.26 key short-term pivotal support on Silver (XAG/USD) to maintain a potential direct intraday rise scenario for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$94.60/95.81 and US$98.74/99.47 (also the upper boundary of a minor ascending channel) (see Fig. 5).On the flip side, failure to hold at US$86.26 and an hourly close below it negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline towards the medium-term pivotal support area of US$81.70/78.84 (also the 20-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 16Today marked another strange session with stock indexes fluctuating significantly before closing the week virtually unchanged. This indicates that traders are unsure how to position themselves ahead of potential volatility over the weekend. Geopolitical events often occur on weekends, which keeps anxiety high for the Monday open and explains the focus on weekend risk.Before this large rally, Gold would have been an obvious safe haven. However, the Bullion closed down 0.70% today, while other metals saw drops of up to 4%. US Treasuries surely were not bid today in expectation for this weekend risk (30Y US Bond down -0.50%)The Dow Jones fell 0.2%, while the Russell 2000 rose as US credit spreads reached their lowest levels since 2007. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed flat. Some analysts are warning about these ultra-low spreads, but no structural cracks are showing yet. zoom_out_map Corporate Bond Credit Spreads – Source: Bloomberg Uncertainty remains high as evidenced by the rangebound trading across asset classes. Keep a close eye on the headlines. Discover:Markets enter Tension-Mode – Markets Weekly OutlookStocks trade in uncertain territories – Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookWhy is the US Dollar so strong to start 2026? EUR/USD and Dollar Index overviewStock Market Heatmap – A confused Stocks Board zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 16, 2026 Producer Manufacturing firms have remained solid but for the rest, there has been virtually no sector trend today. Expect a lot of volatility next week.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's action reflects a confused but uncertain Market as most assets finish down except for Oil (the true but risky hedge against Middle East geopolitical risk).Cryptos are rebounding suddenly at the weekly close, as traders head back into the asset class.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 16, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Today marked yet another low volatility FX session with the JPY leading and the AUD on the other side.FX movements have been largely rangebound since 2026 – Keep a close eye on the US Dollar as it shows some signs of weakness but could also get bid in the event of a US Intervention.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this Weekend and Monday's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The week kicks off with a heavy Asia focus. China releases a full macro package on Sunday night, with Q4 GDP, industrial production, and retail sales setting the tone for global risk sentiment. Australia’s TD-MI inflation gauge follows, offering an early inflation signal for the RBA outlook.Monday shifts attention to Europe and North America. Eurozone inflation data (headline and core) will be key for ECB rate expectations, while Canada delivers a full CPI print.The session wraps with New Zealand business sentiment and a closely watched PBoC rate decision. Monday also begins a packed Central Bank week with the Davos Economic Meeting starting.This evening also begins the Fed Blackout Period.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.This week was forged by volatility amid growing political and geopolitical pressures.Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.Week in review – Geopolitical turmoil pursues The week opened on a nasty surprise:Donald Trump attempted another attack on Jerome Powell, starting an investigation through the Department of Justice against the Federal Reserve Chair.Jerome Powell quickly responded in an unusual address (for an unusual issue), published on Sunday evening.Fortunately, the effect was not long-lasting for the Stock Markets, as reactions to defend the Head of the Central Bank were widespread, spanning from bankers around the world to Republican officials lifting shields against attacks that were going too far.This naturally led to a massive rebound before the CPI data (after a prior drop in the overnight futures session) – And the Market was proven right.First, it seems this investigation will not go very far, given the Senate's heavy backing of the Fed Chair.Second, the CPI, which followed on Tuesday, did not surprise to the upside and even led to a positive surprise on the Year-over-year Core CPI measure (at 2.6% ~ still high but far from scary.)Third, the event might provide even more reasons for Jerome Powell to remain at the Fed as Governor after his term (as Chair) expires in May. His term as Governor could extend for two more years, and with the resilience he has shown amid these attacks, it wouldn't be surprising to see him stand as an independent voice in an ever-more politicized Federal Reserve.The issue is that other elements that had been looming over Markets since the end of December have disrupted the positive sentiment. Revolts in Iran are continuing, and as the President pledged to fight injustices around the world, he threatened the Regime to intervene, which added further investor angst.There is an estimated and very tragic +12,000 casualties from brutal repressions from the IRGC and Basij forces.Oil added a substantial premium, reflecting a larger risk premium, rising 10% from the past week to $62. zoom_out_map 30M WTI Oil Chart, January 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView Stock Indexes, on the other hand, suffered strong drops but rallied back as the President called off the intervention, saying "the killing has stopped" in Iran.Oil also corrected back sharply to the low $59 – A risk premium remains in the Market, albeit not a huge one (I invite you to discover why with our in-depth Oil Analysis).With the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln, a massive American warship heading to the Middle East, this story could not be entirely over. So keep a close eye on these developments throughout next week.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes zoom_out_map Weekly Asset Performance – January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView You can see how volatile this week was, particularly on Wednesday as intervention fears peaked.The surprising winners here were Cryptocurrencies which had been waiting for catalysts to rise again after staying dormant for couple months.Silver also reached some new all-time highs to $96! And despite its fall in today's session, concludes the week up 9%. But this is not surprising anymore.Keep an eye on weakness in the Metals market as the trade reaches a key inflexion point.For the rest, you can see how confused Investors are for traditional assets, closing the week largely unchanged for the most part (even Oil after a tumultuous week). Discover More:Stocks trade in uncertain territories – Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookWhy is the US Dollar so strong to start 2026? EUR/USD and Dollar Index overviewChart Alert: Japanese yen short squeeze risk,158.15 key USD/JPY triggerThe Week Ahead – Davos, Inflation Week and Elevated SpiritsAsia Pacific Markets – Chinese GDP and Bank of Japan After a massive Chinese Trade Data release, beating their record exports (to $1.2T) despite US tariffs, Investors will be watching closely for the Chinese GDP data, where yearly measures will be published. The release is planned for Sunday evening.This will also be followed by the PBoC Rate Decision on Monday.Antipodean releases will also add more complexity to next week's action (as US data is largely absent).For Australia, traders will await the Inflation Gauge data, Employment Data, and PMIs from Sunday to Thursday.New Zealand will release key Business Performance data on Monday, followed by its own CPI data on Thursday afternoon.But the most significant event for APAC trading will surely be the Bank of Japan Rate Decision on Thursday Evening (between 19:00 and 21:00, with no fixed release time per tradition).No hike is expected for this meeting (Currently about 2 more hikes priced in for the year) – But harsh communications are awaited to defend the Yen as the BoJ gets increasingly frustrated from Inflation coming from their weakening currency.Failing to communicate would surely rub salt in the wound.Of course, keep an option for a surprise hike.Europe and UK Markets – Davos Meeting in Switzerland and CPI This week will see some high-tier economic events, starting on Monday with the Davos World Economic Forum, where Central Bank heads, Presidents and Bankers exchange opinions on a yearly basis.Expect tons of Central Bank speeches.The UK will finally release their Employment Data on the Monday-to-Tuesday night trading (at 2:00 A.M).The Unemployment Rate is expected to correct to 5% with unofficial forecasts for a -25K release.*I mistakenly said the UK Jobs data was supposed to be released this week in our past week Weekly Outlook. Pardon me for that if you may.For the Eurozone, expect CPI data on Monday at 5:00 A.M, PPI data for Germany, and many PMI figures on Thursday.North American Markets – Canadian CPI and US GDP Figures The week will be much thinner for North American Markets, concentrated around the end of the week.The exception will be for Canada which releases their Inflation data on Monday (8:30 A.M) which could either cement odds of a 2026 hike or push them away.If you just look at expectations, that hike won't go too far – The consensus for the Headline data is at -0.4%!Except for the Weekly ADP Employment report, there won't be much until Thursday.American data will release GDP data expected to remain very high (4.3% annualized), combined with the Core PCE release at 10:00 A.M. the same day.Friday should also be packed for NA Traders, with Canadian Retail Sales, Global PMI data and Michigan Consumer Sentiment spanning the entire morning session.The Fed also enters its pre-FOMC Blackout Period (The meeting is on January 28, no rate cuts expected).Finally, keep your notifications on for the geopolitical scene: Iran developments should continue to impact Oil and Global markets.Next Week's High Tier Economic Events zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (16/01/2026): In the last episode of week 3, TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss the ongoing geopolitical themes at play within financial markets, as well as recent yen weakness and policy from the Bank of Japan. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 15Today's session was positive compared to yesterday as the late rally continued. The Trump administration quickly moved to new tariff deals after calling off the Iran intervention – Diplomats from Taiwan and the US agreed to a 15% tariff rate in exchange for a $500B investment pledge.It remains difficult to estimate if the Iran intervention will materialize as conflicting signs emerge. The extensive communication regarding the potential attack made the event predictable. The administration is also debating whether an intervention would successfully achieve regime change, as the US aims to avoid a situation similar to Iraq more than 20 years later. However, the USS Abraham Lincoln is still traveling to the Middle East from the South China Sea and should arrive in a few days.Internet access in Iran has been cut for over 170 hours and casualties are extremely numerous (some estimates are above +12,000).Betting markets currently still imply a 40% chance of US intervention before January 31, rising from 30% this morning. zoom_out_map Betting Odds of a US intervention in Iran – Source: Polymarket Equities and Oil have largely reversed the fear-driven moves from yesterday. Oil fell 5% from its $62 peak and equities returned to recent highs in a single session.Time will tell if this reflects complacency from ever-hungry dip-buyers. Only time will tell.One thing is for sure, Investors are easily disregarding geopolitical noise these days.The largest part of the 2025 rally came after the 12-Day War, so precedent is on the Bulls side.Tomorrow's session will be interesting with weekend risk approaching. Discover:Anxiety is rising in Markets – North American mid-week Market updateMetals correct: Is the uptrend over? Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookWTI Oil sinks as Iran tensions abate – Where to look now?Stock Market Heatmap – Nvidia leads Semiconductors zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 15, 2026 Except for semiconductors and Industrials rising, the picture is still fairly mixed, expressing a confusing or at least uncertain view for Stocks.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView Cryptocurrencies are decorrelating quite remarkably from Stocks as of late, with them seemingly only appreciating when Indexes correct.The real outperformer, to the downside, naturally is Black Gold which took quite a hit after the calmer Middle East tensions. The Iran Premium remains until ~$58.50 which should stay relatively bid until that theme really goes away.Apart from these classes, the US dollar really stands out this week, also pushing US treasuries higher as Metals see a first rough session since beginning 2026. Get access to our latest in-detail piece to learn why.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 15, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Except for the AUD, JPY and USD, the rest of the FX space has been quite dull.About the Aussie, it has been rising quite strongly from its correlation with the much better Chinese data and bouncing further from the better risk-sentiment in today's session.On the other side of the performance chart, the Pound got sold off despite its decent GDP numbers, as traders capitalize from the 4,000 pips rally in GBP/USD and even greater gains against the JPY for example.Keep a close eye on the recent US Dollar strength for clues.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this tonight and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Once again, tomorrow will see a very thin calendar which leaves space for headlines. Euro traders will focus on German Industrial production for Euro clues as EUR/USD still moves in a relative downtrend.For the rest, expect to see FedSpeak surprise as Sunday afternoon will mark the beginning of the Fed Blackout Period.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver, Gold correct from their All-Time HighsDespite an ongoing rebound, some warnings signs are arisingHigh timeframe analysis for XAG/USD, XAU/USD and XCU/USD (Copper) A confluence of headwinds may be forming for the metals complex. While fundamentals remain structurally bullish, technical signals are increasingly pointing toward a potential slowdown.Looking back from late 2024 to today, metals have ridden a perfect storm of catalysts that remain very much in play:Dedollarization & Diversification: The Trump Administration's aggressive start to its second term—characterized by tariffs, isolationist "US-First" policies, and threats to retract from NATO—has forced global central banks to rapidly re-wire their balance sheets. This has driven massive capital flows into Gold and European assets as nations diversify away from the dollar.Currency Debasement – Persistent global deficits, which continue to widen with no sign of abating, are fueling fears of fiat devaluation.Unconditional Peace is a regime of the past. With regional conflicts heating up (Iran, Venezuela) and global powers vying for a new World Order, the geopolitical risk premium is now a permanent fixture in pricing.Structural Supply Deficits: Demand is relentless. AI Data Centers, the energy transition, and expanded military needs are devouring supply, while rising tariffs and restrictive policies further choke global trade flows. zoom_out_map Metals performance since Mid-2024 – Source: TradingView But technical factors could slow the ongoing progress.The Long Metals trade has become crowded.Banks, hedge funds, and even people not interested in Markets or the matter are issuing ever-higher year-end price targets—a classic sign of euphoria.Ecstasy in any asset class can precede a brutal comedown, especially when positioning is one-sided; a minor pullback can quickly trigger cascading stop-loss liquidations.Exchanges are also stepping in to cool the speculation. CME Group, for instance, has just shifted to percentage-based margin requirements (effective Jan 13), a move specifically designed to increase the cost of leverage as prices rise. This aims to restrict speculative excess.Finally, metals were propped higher by global interest rate cuts. With economic activity remaining resilient and inflation pressures still high (particularly in the US), this supporting factor may now extinguish. zoom_out_map Current Positioning in Commodities – Courtesy of StoneX.Com I strongly invite you to check out this very interesting Metals positioning report.Even if the trend stalls or corrects, the global landscape is fundamentally different than it was just a few years ago.Do not expect a return to 2021-2022 prices anytime soon—but be aware that in a parabolic market, brutal corrections are common. In that aspect, let's dive right into a high-timeframe analysis for Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) to spot if the trend is really weakening and where things could head in that event. Read More:WTI Oil sinks as Iran tensions abate – Where to look now?Nikkei 225 Forecast: Bullish acceleration above 53,370 key supportBitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Rally: $100K Target in Sight as Institutional Buying SurgesGold (XAU/USD) Weekly Chart and High Timeframe Levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Chart, January 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold has recently broken its December record and keeps rising to new highs even after today's 1.30% max correction – Bulls remain in control of the action.The warning for the yellow metal comes from the fact that it is forming a major RSI divergence on the Weekly timeframe.As a reminder, divergences don't always translate to major corrections. But they do signal that buying momentum is exhausting which could prompt either a slowdown or even a retracement.Bull CaseThis signal also comes right around the $4,650 161.8% projection from 2022, cycle lows (yellow line). Reactions there will be closely tracked.Breaking above this level leaves two targets: $4,800 which coincides with its Channel Upper Bound and after that, the $5,000 psychological level. Gold reacts well to them.Bear CaseIn the event of a retracement, the 20-Week Moving Average ($4,100) could be an interesting setup for aggressive buyers looking to join the trend.Overall, evolving in a large upward channel, pullback entries would also make sense at $4,000 – Lower bound of the Main Channel – So look between $4,000 to $4,100.Any break below will see major reactions at the $3,200 to $3,600 Major SupportHigher Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:Session Highs and All-Time Highs $4,642Key Fibonacci Projection $4,650 to $4,666Potential Resistance at Channel highs $4,800$5,000 Major Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels:Preceding ATH Pivot $4,350 to $4,400 – Bullish above, Bearish belowPivotal Support and Channel lows $3,880 to $4,050$3,200 to $3,500 Major Support$2,600 to $2,800 November 2024 Support$1,800 to $2,000 2022 to 2024 Range SupportSilver (XAG/USD) Weekly Chart and High Timeframe Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Weekly Chart, January 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Weekly chart for Silver marks how insane the ongoing run is.With the ongoing rise, since August, the metal is up 150%.Even if this doesn't look too big for a Cryptocurrency, such commodity price explosions are rare and usually consequential.Predicting tops in an ever-exploding rally is a very dangerous thing to do and can be costly.However, Institutional buying interest is stalling while deliveries are seeing issues amid major supply imbalances.The trend is so strong that the 7% pullback from this morning has now completely warped away. But, this is where things could become dangerous.Aggressive pullbacks shows a sensitive market – And with the huge Bearish divergences forming on both the Weekly and Daily timeframes, any major break could lead to a catastrophic fall.Keep a close eye on the $82 to $85 Range – Below this, the rally can get exposed.Falling below the $70 to $75 Major Pivot however opens the door for a huge correction.Pullback levels could be between $55 to $63 for one case (retest of October highs)Breaching below points to $39 to $45, retest of the 2011 All-Time High record.These technical warnings don't mean that Silver can't go to $100 and beyond, but provides levels of attention for traders.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:$86.23 Session and All-Time HighsPotential Mini-Resistance 1 $87 to $89Potential Mini-Resistance and Psychological Level 2 $90 to $92Support Levels:Daily Pivot $83 to $85Weekly Major Pivot $70 to $75 Above Bullish, Bearish belowDecember 29 Lows $70$55 to $63 October highs and 50-Day MAPivotal Support $48 to $50$39 to $45, retest of the 2011 All-Time High recordCopper (XCU/USD) Weekly Chart and High Timeframe Levels zoom_out_map Copper (XCU/USD) Weekly Chart, January 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView Copper has slowly broken out but did so consistently after a huge correction in the end of July.Now rising to some new all-time highs, it would not be surprising to see Copper pursuing higher levels – Particularly as the commodity is very much needed for electrical and industrial processes at all levels.And this comes particularly important as China's activity seems to be tilting higher again (and it is highly correlated with Copper prices).But on the technical aspects, some resistances are arising.XCU is evolving within a major Monthly channel since 2022 and is coming across its higher bound as we speak. Today is showing some slight rejection from there.The Weekly RSI is showing some form of exhaustion. A bear divergence hasn't fully formed yet but could be in formation.Remaining above the Major Pivot points to higher chances of a breakout, the reverse in bears break below.In the event of a correction, look at reactions to the $5.40 to $5.50 Support Zone, and at the 50-Week MA ($4.90) in aggressive correction scenarios.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Copper (XCU/USD):Resistance Levels:$6.08 Current All-Time HighsPotential Resistance 1 $6.40 to $.650Potential Resistance 2 $6.90 to $7.00Support Levels:Imminent Pivot $5.70 to $5.90 – Bullish above, Bearish BelowMinor Support at March 2025 Highs $5.40Major Monthly Support between $4.90 to $5.00 (50-Week MA)Monthly channel lows $4.40 to $4.502025 Support Lows at $4.00In conclusion, as always, Markets and flows decide whether the trend is over.The real caution to take is knowing that there are high risks (which can still offer high rewards) in trading extreme trends that traders and investors should to take in considerationHowever, in the event that metals still rally, interesting plays could well occur in different, less traded commodities.For example, other industrial metals such as Uranium, Cobalt, or even Aluminum may come into play.Platinum and Palladium also have a interesting cases but have already rallied quite largely.Watch out for positioning and fast-paced moves! Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Nikkei 225 is leading global equity performance in early 2026, rising 7.9% YTD and outperforming major US indices, supported by improving domestic macro conditions and resilience despite concerns over rising JGB yields.Fundamentals remain a key tailwind, with Japan’s Citigroup Earnings Revision Index hitting a one-year high, signaling improving corporate earnings expectations versus the US and Europe, alongside potential political support from a snap election that could reinforce pro-stimulus policies.Short-term technicals favour further upside, with bullish acceleration intact above the 53,370 key support; holding this level opens the door to resistance targets in the 54,565–55,623 range, while a break below would signal a near-term corrective pullback. In our 2026 long-term global stock market outlook, published on December 26, 2025, we selected the Japanese stock market to outperform due to its improving macroeconomic factors and positive technical indicators.Read more: 2026 Stock Indices Outlook: Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng poised to outperformIn this report, we will shift our focus to a shorter-term trading horizon, focusing on a one- to three-day period to project the likely trajectory of the Nikkei 225.The narrative so far… Bullish, going against the fears of rising JGB yields zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Year-to-date global stock market indices as of 14 Jan 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The Nikkei 225 has continued to trade in a bullish trend since the start of the new year. The Japanese benchmark stock index rallied by 7.9% in local currency terms (ranked 2nd, see Fig. 1), just behind the 2025 red-hot, South Korea’s KOSPI that continues to extend its gains into 2026 with a positive return of 12.1% (see Fig. 1).The Nikkei 225 has also outperformed the US stock market: small-cap Russell 2000 (6.8%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (2.3%), S&P 500 (+1.1%), and Nasdaq 100 (0.9%).On top of the potential near-term positive feedback loop out from the internal political factor, where there is now growing chatter in the marketplace that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi is likely to dissolve the lower house in parliament as soon as January 23 and call for a snap election soon, either on February 8 or February 15.A snap election would likely aim to capitalize on high approval ratings of about 70% for Takaichi and could strengthen the Liberal Democratic Party’s grip on power in the more powerful lower house in Japan’s parliament. Hence, if successful as it is intended, Takaichi can have a firmer mandate to pursue pro-stimulus policies that are likely to boost economic growth prospects in Japan.It’s all about earnings growth prospects zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Citigroup Earnings Revision Index (Japan, US, Europe, UK) as of 2 Jan 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Japan Inc’s earnings growth prospects have continued to lead the pack. Citigroup Earnings Revision Index for Japan has continued to trend upwards in the first week of 2026, where it rose to 0.43, a new one-year high as of 2 January 2026, surpassing the US (-0.08), Europe (-0.09), and the UK (-0.14) (see Fig. 2).The Citi Earnings Revision Index is calculated as “Proportion of Companies with EPS Upgrades (%)” − “Proportion of Companies with EPS Downgrades (%)” (compared to last week). When the index is above the zero axis, it means that analysts on average, are optimistic about the outlook for corporate earnings, and vice versa, it means that analysts are relatively pessimistic.Let us now focus on the short-term technicals on the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures).53,370 key short-term support to maintain bullish acceleration zoom_out_map Fig. 3: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 15 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Since the 8 January 2026 low of 51,055, the price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index have transitioned into a potential acceleration phase within its latest minor uptrend phase that kickstarted on 18 December 2025.Watch the 53,370 key short-term support to maintain the current near-term bullish state for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 54,565, 54,910/55,050, and 55,530/55,623 (Fibonacci extension clusters) next (see Fig. 3).In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to hold above a parallel ascending support that suggests potentially short-term bullish momentum remains intact for the Japan CFD index.On the flip side, failure to hold at 53,370 with an hourly close below it is likely to invalidate the bullish acceleration scenario to open up scope for a minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 52,830/53,644 and 52,060. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

UK GDP rose 0.3% month-over-month in November 2025, beating expectations.Growth was driven primarily by the Services (0.3%) and Manufacturing (2.1%) sectors.The initial strengthening of the GBP after the release was short-lived, with the currency quickly pulling back.Most Read: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Rally: $100K Target in Sight as Institutional Buying SurgesIn November 2025, the UK economy grew by 0.3%, bouncing back from a slight dip in October and doing better than experts predicted. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that GDP would expand by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) UK GDP Breakdown What Drove the Growth?The Services Sector: This was the biggest winner, growing by 0.3%. High-performing areas included science, tech, and computer programming.Manufacturing: This sector grew by 2.1%. The standout performer was the car industry, where production jumped by over 25% as factories finally got back to normal following a cyberattack in August.Shopping: Wholesale and retail trade also saw a healthy 0.6% boost.Where did it struggle?Construction: This was the main weak spot, with activity falling by 1.3%. This was a slightly bigger drop than what was seen in the previous month.The Bank of England expects Britain's economy to have shown zero growth in the October-to-December period of 2025 although it thinks underlying growth is running at about 0.2% a quarter.In the three months to November, the economy grew by 0.1%, the Office for National Statistics said.Market Reaction and Outlook - GBP/USD Markets saw the GBP strengthen in the aftermath of the GDP release but the move proved short-lived.An immediate pullback occurred leaving Cable trading around the 1.3435 handle at the time of writing.GBP/USD 15M Chart, January 15, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com For a more in depth look at the technical picture for GBP/USD, Please read Key Support Holds for GBP/USD as Traders Eye US Inflation and UK GDPFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 14Today's session unleashed a wave of panic across global markets, driven by a combination of factors: the weekend's attack on the Fed, inflation data that—while not alarming—remains hot enough to delay rate cuts, and most importantly, the growing probability of an attack on Iran.Regarding the latter, such fears had built a strong premium into Oil prices despite today's release of very high US inventories: WTI surged from $55.80 to highs of $62 in about a week, a +10% move.However, things calmed significantly when President Trump appeared, stating that the "killing in Iran is stopping," which would likely discourage US intervention—at least, that is what the market is assuming.Promptly after the comments, released about an hour before the close, stocks were relieved of their intense pressure. The Nasdaq, for example, rallied from down 1.70% at its lows to close the day down "only" 1%. The Dow Jones recovered to finish nearly unchanged.Oil, on the other hand, saw a catastrophic drop as the premium eased, falling from $62 to $60 to close down on the session. zoom_out_map WTI Oil 5m Chart – January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView Metals, however, are not trusting this headline. Silver closed well above $92, posting yet another 8% rise in today's session. Gold and Platinum also moved to new all-time and yearly highs, respectively.Overall, the story seems far from over. President Trump's decision relies on intel that the violence is subsiding, so we will need to see if the executions related to the revolts actually cease before the narrative truly dissipates.In the meantime, this could be (albeit unlikely) a "pump-fake" in case the US really moves to attack Iran. Even if they don't, it is safe to assume the Iranian population will find its way. This is a story to be tracked closely. Discover:Anxiety is rising in Markets – North American mid-week Market updateThe Iran Risk Premium: WTI Hits $62 as Revolts Continue – US Oil OutlookUS Stocks plummet as Iran tensions mount - Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookStock Market Heatmap – A visible relief after the Trump Admin comments zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 14, 2026 To see how things were looking, I invite you to check out our morning Index analysis.Quite a calmer picture.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView What a volatile session! My call is that things can be expected to stay like this for a while.Cryptos are largely the winners of today's session (and yesterday's), along with Silver (as per usual).A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 14, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Except for the Yen rebounding sharply again in today's session, other FX majors have just dazzled around.Keep an eye on geopolitical developments for the Yen and USD as safe-haven currencies!A look at Economic data releasing throughout this tonight and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Except for a few data releases for New Zealand, UK GDP and a Fed Speak cascade, not much is expected tomorrow.So keep a close eye on the freshest news regarding Iran, the main factor for markets right now.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global traders Uncertainty is making its way back, hurting US indexes while others rallyBoth the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar are strengthening from the geopolitical developments Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.Last week's exuberance could have been a real trap for investors, as things changed drastically in a matter of days.The first story of the week began over the weekend, when Markets discovered through an unusual Federal Reserve address that Chair Jerome Powell is under investigation by the US Department of Justice. Officially, this is due to erroneous statements made during his bi-yearly testimony to the Senate. But everyone knows it's not because of this.The real reason lies with the Trump Administration, particularly the President's discontent regarding the still-too-high US Fed Funds Rate (which forms the basis for almost all credit rates in the US, also acting as the global risk-free rate).These are inefficient or even dangerous tactics. Not only could they undermine Fed independence—vital for markets, the Dollar, and inflation stability—but they also set a rough-looking precedent for any established US institution. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve operates on a voting system; so even firing the Chair could have a minimal impact on the FOMC rate decision, but it would surely have a high impact on risk appetite and stability. zoom_out_map Betting Markets odds of Powell's firing from the Board of Governors – Source: Kalshi In Monday's trading, however, things were largely overlooked by investors even as the CPI release loomed.Regarding that CPI report: despite the 0.3% (as-expected) rise, the year-over-year picture is far from worsening, helping to ease some inflationary fears. But looking at today's FedSpeak, the battle is far from over. The Beige Book, which was just released, showed a "modest pace" of increase in economic activity across most districts. It is tough to justify rate cuts in this environment without further hurting the Dollar's credibility.But the real hammer on the market was a combination of this higher political instability and the developments in Iran.Now lasting for almost a month, the revolts have led to 12,000+ civilian casualties, which is increasingly prompting calls for US intervention. If Venezuela made the case for a strong presence in South America, "Monroe Doctrine" style, this situation could have a significantly higher impact on global stability.For now, it is at least impacting Oil (up 10% since last week), volatility, and investor sentiment. Stock Indexes are plunging in today's session, particularly in the higher-beta sectors, with the Mag 7s getting dumped hard.Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:US Stocks plummet as Iran tensions mount - Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookThe Iran Risk Premium: WTI Hits $62 as Revolts Continue – US Oil OutlookChart Alert: Silver (XAG/USD) resumes accelerated uptrend, US$90.90 upside trigger to watchNorth-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite the attacks on the Fed, the US Dollar is up against all OECD majors at the exception of a highly performing Chinese Yuan.The Dollar seems to be at the center of Safe-Haven flows in the current geopolitical landscape.Dollar Index Daily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index Daily Chart, January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is stabilizing at its relative 2026 highs.Now coming close to a main resistance zone and key Moving Averages stabilizing (indicating stalling momentum), the test will be to see if it really stands out as a Safe-Haven in the event of any attack.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance LevelsImmediate Resistance 99.25 to 99.50100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone100.376 November highsSupport Levels98.50 to 98.80 Intraday Pivot Zone98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips)December Lows 97.7597.40 to 97.80 August Range Support2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, January 14, 2026 - Source: TradingView Despite the attacks on the Fed, the US Dollar is up against all OECD majors at the exception of a highly performing Chinese Yuan.The Dollar seems to be at the center of Safe-Haven flows in the current geopolitical landscape.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, January 14, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Loonie is coming back after its past week’s poor performance, only down against the US Dollar since last Wednesday.Venezuela’s events were bearish on the CAD due to similar oil products being available in the country. Nevertheless, Oil giants are expressing their uncertainties regarding the exploitability of Venezuelan oil, leading to mean-reversion for the Canadian currency. This combination with rising WTI prices boosts the CAD.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD Daily Chart, January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD rallied spectacularly since the end of December, but is rejecting the 1.39 Psychological level.Now contained between its 50 and 200-Day moving averages, look for breakouts with daily closes either above or below the technical indicators.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels50-Day MA and psychological level 1.39Major Pivot 1.3870 to 1.39 (rejecting)1.40 to 1.4050 Key ResistanceSupport Levels200-Day MA 1.384251.38 Pivotal SupportMajor Support Zone 1.3650 to 1.37December 26 lows 1.364301.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Stay in touch with the latest geopolitical developments, as they surely will lead Market Flows towards the end of the week.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets just received the reports for US PPI and Retail Sales.The Producer Price Index report came at 0.2% as expected, however reflecting in a rise on the y/y number to 3.0% (2.7% estimate). FYI the data release is for November and may have seen some biases due to the BLS closures.Core PPI for November however was actually unchanged. You can get the detailed report right here.For Retail Sales, the picture is still one of exuberance for the American Consumer:The report came in at 0.6% vs 0.4% M/M.The report, also for November, still marks high pace spending which should hold strong earnings and activity for the new year.Economic activity is still holding strong and surprisingly, tariff-led inflation hasn't truly reflected through PPI Prices since July. The data is a bit old and shouldn't move markets too much all things considered. Traders are now looking at developments in Iran. zoom_out_map US Dollar Index (DXY) 15M Chart – Source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Silver breaks into price discovery: XAG/USD has erased its early-January correction, surged alongside gold, and hit a fresh record high above US$91, confirming the resumption of an accelerated short-term uptrend.Macro tailwinds remain supportive: Rising geopolitical risk premiums, softer US inflation, and expectations of continued Fed rate cuts into 2026 are reinforcing bullish momentum in silver.Key technical levels to watch: Holding above US$86.27/84.03 keeps the minor uptrend intact, while a sustained break above US$90.90 opens the door toward US$94.60–95.81 and US$98.74–99.46, with a longer-term secular target near US$101.15. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: Silver (XAG/USD) intraday rally is fast approaching key resistance", published on 9 January 2025.The recent bullish price actions of Silver (XAG/USD) in the past four trading sessions that moved in line with Gold (XAU/USD), another precious metal, have eradicated the earlier expected extended minor corrective decline structure of Silver (XAG/USD) where price staged a prior decline of 10% (high to low) from 7 January to 8 January 2026.In today’s Asia session, 14 January 2026, Silver (XAG/USD) has continued to extend its up move with an intraday rally of 4.3% to hit another record high of US$91.57 at this time of writing, breaching above the US$90.00 psychological level for the first time.Macro factors such as rising geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East arising from Iran’s civil unrest, which may lead to regime change with involvement from the US, together with a likely continuation of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts extension into 2026 after US core CPI for December 2025 came in below expectations (both m/m and y/y basis) have served as reinforcing positive feedback loops into Silver (XAG/USD).Let us now take a look at Silver (XAG/USD) from a technical analysis perspective to decipher its short-term movement (1 to 3 days).Short-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Relentless minor uptrend intact zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Silver (XAG/USD) minor trend as of 14 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Silver (XAG/USD) long-term secular trend as of 14 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$86.27/84.03 key short-term pivotal support on Silver (XAG/USD) to maintain the short-term minor uptrend phase in motion since the 8 January 2026 low of US$73.84.A clearance above a major resistance of US$90.90 (depicted on the weekly chart) increases the bullish acceleration mode for Silver (XAG/USD) for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$94.60/95.81(upper boundary of the minor ascending channel and Fibonacci extension cluster), followed by US$98.74/99.46 (Fibonacci extension cluster).However, a break with an hourly close below US$84.03 invalidates the minor bullish impulsive sequence to flip the bias back to a likely minor corrective decline sequence again to expose the next intermediate supports at US$79.86 and US$74.07 (also the 20-day moving average).Key elements to support the bullish bias The price actions of Silver (XAG/USD) have continued to trade above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages.Since 8 January 2026 low of US$73.84, the price actions of Silver (XAG/USD) has evolved into a minor ascending channel.The hourly MACD trend indicator has staged an intraday bullish breakout in today’s Asia session, 14 January 2026, above its centreline, which reinforces the ongoing minor uptrend phase for Silver (XAG/USD).In a longer-term secular trend structure from an Elliot Wave/Fibonacci analysis perspective, Silver (XAG/USD) is likely in an extended major/secular bullish impulsive up move sequence, labelled as wave III in place since 29 August 2022 low, with the next major resistance coming in at US$101.15 (see Fig. 2). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 13It seems that CPI day turned out to be less about the data itself and more about what lies beneath the surface.Perhaps the as-expected release minimized volatility—Core CPI cooled to 2.6%, a very decent report, especially given the skepticism surrounding the previous soft print. However, with another critical inflation report (PPI) looming tomorrow, traders may simply be keeping their powder dry waiting for further confirmation.Asset classes traded in a chaotic fashion. We saw a classic knee-jerk rally in stocks and a drop in the Dollar upon release, only for both to violently reverse course. The selloff in Stocks actually accelerated towards the end of the session, particularly for the Dow Jones.Surprisingly, the US Dollar finished at the top of the FX major board today. This could be partly attributed to NY Fed President Williams' late-session comments yesterday, indicating the Fed is comfortable with interest rates at "near neutral" levels. However, the bid is likely driven more by geopolitical tension in Iran.In the Metals complex, traders seem to be searching for direction, with most assets seeing low volatility or minor corrections. Silver however, remains the outlier. The short squeeze appears to be continuing even without a broader metals rally, with the commodity tagging $89.13 before retreating. This looks like max pain for shorts—if this marks the capitulation point, we could see a broader calming of the rally. We will monitor this closely tomorrow.The two asset classes that truly stole the show today were Cryptos and Oil.Crypto: Digital assets are finding renewed attraction as inflation cools and traditional assets sit at extreme valuations. This breakout comes after a 1.5-month consolidation, suggesting a technical coiled spring was ready to release.Oil: Supply fears have finally gripped the market. After the post-Venezuela drop to $55, WTI surged to trade around $62 today. Markets are now aggressively pricing in the risk of supply disruption from the revolts in Iran.As mentioned before, this Iran theme is also putting a bid under the US Dollar as a safe-haven, potentially being the next leg of the Freedom Trade to continue last week's trend. Discover:Fed Chair Powell is Under Attack – Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) Fresh All-Time HighsTraders are Moving Past Powell's Investigation - US Stock Index Outlook & Pre-CPI Trading LevelsKey Support Holds for GBP/USD as Traders Eye US Inflation and UK GDPStock Market Heatmap – A very mixed picture zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 13, 2026 Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Cryptos and Oil steal the show.Apart from the US Dollar and a timid rally in US Treasuries, all other assets were sold off amid slow but nascent profit-taking. It will be key to check if this continues.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 13, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar keeps shining again despite the relatively soft CPI report with the CAD following closely.Once again, the Yen finishes last still hurt by the Snap Election (Fiscal Recklessness) prospects. More to come on this throughout the week.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this tonight and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tonight’s session wraps up with a major health check for China as its Trade Balance hits the tape. Markets are eyeing the $113.6B surplus target, with Imports projected to grow at 0.9%. Given the tight trade link, any Chinese demand surprise will spark immediate volatility in the Antipodeans (AUD and NZD).But tomorrow's session (Wednesday, January 14) is the true main event:Early Morning (03:00 – 03:20 A.M. ET) | Heavy Central Bank speech session starts with back-to-back speeches from BoE’s Taylor (03:00 A.M.) and ECB’s De Guindos (03:20 A.M.). Expect them to echo the recent "full solidarity" statement supporting Fed Chair Powell's independence following political pressures.The North American SessionUS Retail Sales (08:30 A.M. ET): Consensus is eyeing a 0.4% MoM gainUS Producer Price Index (PPI) (08:30 A.M. ET): Headline PPI and Core PPI (expected at 2.6% YoY) serving as the final inflation puzzle piece for the week.Fed Speakers & Beige Book (10:00 – 14:10 ET): The afternoon features a barrage of five Fed speakers (Paulson, Miran, Bostic, Kashkari, and Williams). This culminates in the Fed Beige Book (14:00 ET), which will provide the "prophecy" on regional economic health ahead of the next rate decision.Safe Trades and good luck for PPI!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin breaks out higher and drags the Crypto Market with itWith Cryptos being sold off, early, could see attraction as other assets trade to elevated all-time highsEthereum and Solana are facing a key test for a general market rally Crypto is back in beast mode today after a 1.5-month-long consolidation across all major tokens.Digital assets have a funny way of fading into the background when interest and prices drop, often following a few crashes or scandals.And make no mistake—the latest correction was no small matter.Bitcoin, the most sought-after and respected crypto, corrected by 36%, with the Total Crypto Market Cap suffering a similar drop.Others were hit even harder, with 50% corrections seen in XRP and Solana, and brutal 70% drops in names like Cardano. zoom_out_map Crypto total Market Cap Monthly Chart – Source: TradingView But zooming out, Cryptos actually led the sensational rally that eventually spread to other assets.Bitcoin kicked off the 2024-2025 frenzy as early as January 2024, trading at $40,000 before peaking at $126,000 19 months later – a +3X increase.As a matter of fact, looking at past cycles, cryptocurrencies have often acted as a leading indicator, rising and falling weeks or even months before other asset classes.This happens for a simple technical reason: they sit at the very top of the risk spectrum.Consequently, they are the first to see demand dry up when uncertainty arises—conditions we saw clearly during the October-November period as layoffs rose and fears of an "AI Peak" bloomed.So, where do things stand now? zoom_out_map Current Session in Cryptos – January 13, 2026 (15:14). Source: FInviz Digital assets have been largely off the radar since November, with volatility staying surprisingly contained.However, with stocks hovering at all-time highs and metals posting record performances, Cryptocurrencies could be primed for some mean-reversion higher.As geopolitical uncertainty looms and the Fed's independence comes under fire yet again, traders may look to crypto for risk diversification in assets that have corrected already – Expect things to remain volatile in this environment.Let's dive right into the Daily Charts and technical levels for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). Read More:CPI Mid-Session Outlook: Surprising Flows as Silver Explodes While Stocks DropChart Alert: USD/JPY breaking 158.80 key resistance as US CPI looms with intervention riskDow Jones (DJIA) Forecast: Eyeing new all-time high as banks’ earnings loomBitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart, January 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin is now breaching its 50-Day Moving Average on strong momentum after an initial test last week.Supported by the forming of an uptrend (higher lows, strong trendline) and confirmed by a bounce on neutral from the RSI Index, the path for a higher retest is forming.Two tests will be coming for Bitcoin:Breaking the January 5 highs ($94,810) – Short-term test (looks close to breaking)Passing the test of the $100,000 resistance.This one will need a review if prices get there. A huge psychological resistance which will surely dictate risk-appetite for Cryptos in 2026.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$88,000 to $93,000 major support turned Pivot (breaking out)50-Day MA ($92,200, broken this morning)Past Week Lows and Uptrend $89,340$85,000 mid-term Support (+/- $1,500)$75,000 Key long-term supportResistance Levels:Highs to break $94,810 (short-term resistance)$98,000 to $100,000 Resistance$104,000 200-Day MAResistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart, January 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Ethereum is now looking a bit less strong compared to its older brother but this could still be quite positive – A triangle formation will help to spot the direction of an imminent breakout.Showing similar RSI developments as BTC, Ethereum should see its price blaze as long as bulls manage to break above its 200-Day Moving Average, coming in as an immediate test ($3,216).A rise in ETH could also help the broader altcoin market to rally.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:50-Day Moving Average $3,100$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (November lows)$2,620 Session and weekly Lows$2,100 June War support$1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:$3,216 200-Day MA (Immediate test)$3,300 breakout region$3,500 (+/- $50) Key Resistance$3,800 September lows$4,000 Dec 2024 Top Main Resistance zone$4,950 Current new All-time highsSolana (SOL) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Solana (SOL) Daily Chart, January 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Solana is forming an interesting uptrend to follow its peers but seems to lack a bit of momentum.However, with the current rally being young in global crypto, it may easily catch up as it trades well above its 50-Day MA ($132.00).SOL Bulls will want to see a clean break above $147.00 for hopes of a renewed bull cycle.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:Upward trendline ($138)Main Support $125 to $130Weekly lows $123$100 to $115 Main supportResistance Levels:Highs to breach $146.93$140 to $150 Major Pivot (testing)Channel highs and October Pivot resistance $165 to $170$180 to $190 ResistancePsychological level $200 to $205$253 Cycle highsSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets have just received the report for the highly anticipated CPI Report for December, which came in exactly as expected – The report is a relief and despite the high m/m gain, should raise cut expectations throughout the middle of the year.The month-over-month Headline release came in at 0.3% vs. 0.3% expectations. This brings the y/y total to 2.7%, unchanged from last month.For Core CPI, the m/m is at 0.2% vs 0.3% estimates – the year-over-year is a bit lower with 2.6% vs 2.7% expected.The difference with the headline comes with more volatile energy prices throughout the month which could also be a major factor for Inflation in 2026. You can get access to the full report right here.It is the first live report, considered timely and with supposedly fewer BLS assumptions since September. The 1.5-month-long US Government shutdown had impaired previous releases.After last month's bizarre miss, traders and investors were looking to learn more on how the inflation picture is really unfolding – Doubts could remain regarding today's release.For those who did not know, the Trump Administration fired the Head of the BLS, a move that adds further uncertainty and distrust in US data and assets.Let's discover a few reactions for the US Dollar, Dow Jones (CFD & Futures), EUR/USD, and Gold.US Dollar (Dollar Index) zoom_out_map Dollar Index 15M – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView Pre-Open Dow Jones (CFD) zoom_out_map Pre-Open Dow Jones (CFD) – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView The open should be positive for stocks after the report.Gold (XAU/USD) 15M Chart zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 15M Chart – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView EUR/USD 15M Chart zoom_out_map EUR/USD 15M Chart – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Yen weakness intensifies despite softer USD: USD/JPY has broken above the 158.80 key resistance and is trading near 158.9, marking a 1.5-year high as the yen continues to underperform even amid a broader US dollar pullback; verbal intervention has so far failed to halt the move.Politics overtaking rates as the main driver: The traditional link between USD/JPY and US–Japan yield differentials has weakened since April 2025, with yen selling increasingly driven by the “Takaichi Trade” and snap-election risks that could reinforce pro-stimulus policies and constrain the BoJ’s tightening path.Intervention risk rising as CPI looms: USD/JPY has entered the historical intervention-risk zone near 159.45 ahead of US CPI, with short-term momentum still bullish above 158.10, but a failure to hold this support could trigger a corrective pullback. The Japanese yen has stood out as the FX market outlier over the past three trading sessions, remaining persistently weak despite a broader softening in the US dollar against other major currencies (see Fig. 1).Intraday K-shaped performance in FX market zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 1-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 13 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The yen has continued to fall on Tuesday, 13 January 2025, as the USD/JPY breached the 158.00 psychological level on Monday. In today’s Asia session, the Japanese currency extended its losses to hit a one-and-a-half-year low against the US dollar. The USD/JPY is now trading at an intraday level of 158.86 at the time of writing.Verbal interventions from key authorities have so far failed to stem the ongoing yen weakness. During the late Monday US session, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama commented that she and US Treasury Secretary Bessent shared a “common concern” about the one-way weakening of the yen.USD/JPY movements are moving away from rate differentials, with politics as the main driver zoom_out_map Fig. 2: 2-year & 10-year US Treasury/JGB yield spreads major trends with USD/JPY as of 13 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) In the past five years, there has been a strong direct correlation between the movement of the USD/JPY and the US-Japan sovereign bond yield (rate) differentials.However, this relationship has started to break down. Since April 2025, the narrowing of the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury/JGB yield spread has failed to spark a downward drift of the USD/JPY (see Fig. 2).The primary reason that may explained the recent yen weakness is likely related to the “Takaichi Trade” narrative. On Sunday, local Japanese media reported that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi had the intention to dissolve the parliament's lower house and called for a snap election soon, either on February 8 or February 15.A snap election would likely aim to capitalize on high approval ratings of about 70% for Takaichi and could strengthen the Liberal Democratic Party’s grip on power in the more powerful lower house in Japan’s parliament. Hence, if successful as it is intended, Takaichi can have a firmer mandate to pursue pro-stimulus policies that may hinder the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s current gradual interest rate hike policy.USD/JPY is trading inside the intervention-risk zone ahead of today’s US CPI zoom_out_map Fig. 3: USD/JPY medium-term & major trends as of 13 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The BoJ, under the instruction of the Ministry of Finance, last intervened in the FX market to sell down the US dollar on 12 July 2024 when the USD/JPY hit an intraday high of 159.45.The USD/JPY is now trading close to the 159.45 level, which is breaking above the upper limit of a key medium-term pivotal resistance of 158.80 (see Fig. 3).Let’s now highlight what the key levels to watch on the USD/JPY are based on a technical analysis perspective, as we wait for the release of the US CPI data for December later today, which can be a short-term key driver to spark two-way movement on the USD/JPYShort-term momentum supports further USD/JPY strength zoom_out_map Fig. 4: USD/JPY minor trend as of 13 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The USD/JPY has staged a bullish breakout with an hourly close above the 158.80 key medium-term resistance, without any bearish divergence condition seen on its hourly RSI momentum indicator at its overbought region (see Fig. 4).Watch the 158.10 key short-term pivotal support on the USD/JPY to maintain the intraday bullish momentum for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 159.45/159.75 and 160.24/160.35 (also a Fibonacci extension).On the flipside, a break and an hourly close below 158.10 invalidates the bullish bias to open up scope for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 157.50, 157.28/157.00, and even 156.30 (close to the 20-day moving average) Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 12Traders and investors woke up to another piece of bad news – the Trump Administration and the US Department of Justice orchestrated yet another attack on Federal Reserve Chair Powell.The pretext? Misleading statements in his testimony at the Senate (legal requirement for all Federal Reserve Members).The real pretext? Finding new ways to fire the head of the US Central Bank just ahead of the upcoming FOMC – Another attack on the Fed.And Jerome Powell responded fearlessly this time. I invite you all to listen to his (short) speech.The problem is that neither the US dollar nor financial markets can function adequately without a central bank free from political influences.Historically, politicized central banks have often been associated with high or even extreme inflation, disorderly stock market movements, and financial outflows – not a great cocktail.The US President wants to see rates go down further. However, the Fed can’t commit due to a still solid labor Market (Unemployment Rate is higher than it was a few years ago, but still very low in the grand scheme of things) – And a still very unclear inflation picture – More on this tomorrow morning (US CPI releases at 8:30 A.M. ET).The consequences? Anxious investors, volatile movements, and a pursuit of diversification away from the US Dollar.Most heavily traded metals have rallied to new all-time or yearly highs after the headline, stocks sharply opened lower, the Dollar shot down, and a general angst regarding the outcome arose.Even US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed his confusion regarding the event. Discover:Fed Chair Powell is Under Attack – Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) Fresh All-Time HighsTraders are Moving Past Powell's Investigation - US Stock Index Outlook & Pre-CPI Trading LevelsKey Support Holds for GBP/USD as Traders Eye US Inflation and UK GDPStock Market Heatmap – Widespread Rally except for Healthcare and Softwares zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 12, 2026 Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView You can see how volatile cross-asset performance was today with many classes falling, recovering etc.Despite a session which finally turned risk-on, some doubts remain – CPI is coming up tomorrow and with the latest event, things could look grim in any strong beat.Too, with all the geopolitical events, Markets have remained calm. A potential time bomb? Oil and Bitcoin are moving quite sharply since the close. I'll be posting on any headlines if there's any.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 12, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs There has been two themes in FX Markets today.The first one being a huge selloff in the US Dollar after the investigation got revealed, pushing all majors higher (except for one) – The Kiwi Dollar is the standout winner of the session as business confidence rebounded from the latest release.The second, less market shaking, is the fresh wave of Yen selling to start the week. JPY bulls are not enjoying the announcement for next month's Japanese snap elections, when the PM Takaichi could grab more power and drown the Yen in further dilution.The Nikkei actually loves this, up 5% since Friday.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this tonight and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Things will get quite busy in the next 24 hours.Today's evening session will start with a speech from the very influential NY Fed Williams at an International Economics event (look for clues regarding the upcoming Rate Decision and his views for 2026).For the rest, mid-tier data for Australia, Japan, and the UK between 18:30 and 19:00.But the real test will be tomorrow:The US session will start the festivities, with the ADP Weekly report at 8:15 a.m. (Will the labor picture still rebound?)But most importantly, an up-to-date US CPI report.This one will be the most important in almost six months, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics' closure has hurt all reports since October (so the last clear CPI was released in September – that's a while ago!)For the rest of the day, expect a few speeches from Fed officials Musalem and Barkin, two non-voters who still offer interesting insights into their 2026 outlooks.In terms of data, there will be the US New Home Sales release at 10:00 and the US Monthly Budget at 14:00.The evening session will then present some Trade data for China – of high importance for the global economy outlook.Safe Trades and a Successful Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.