This paves the way for Takaichi to be elected as the first ever female prime minister of Japan in the vote tomorrow. After all the drama with Komeito leaving and what not, we're finally seeing the dust settle. Sure, the LDP party is now much weakened and this coalition government isn't as strong a faction as the one before. But for now, it's enough to keep the vultures from circling and allows for things to move forward - at least for the time being. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Palladium Technical Analysis: Second Attempt After a 14% Collapse in Less Than Two DaysPalladium futures have just recorded one of their sharpest short-term declines in recent memory. After reaching a 50-week high of 1,695 on Thursday, October 16, and a Friday high of 1,692.5, prices plunged to 1,510.5 by the end of that same Friday — a 9.68% intraday drop.From that Friday high to today’s session low, Palladium has fallen just over 14% in less than a day and a half of futures trading. Such an abrupt decline has left traders asking a difficult question: is this the beginning of a deeper selloff or the setup for a reversal?Price is currently hovering around the 1,500 round number, a psychological battleground where both buyers and sellers are testing conviction. The speed and magnitude of the drop are unusual for this market, and attention is now focused on whether Palladium can stabilize and build a base above the key levels highlighted by orderFlow Intel.Before I dive into the order flow persepctive, you can also see the bigger picture from my Palladium Technical Anlaysis Video.Order Flow Intel PerspectiveOur orderFlow Intel analysis, designed to track buyer and seller aggressiveness inside each price range, shows that aggressive selling is finally being absorbed near the lower value area. Despite another wave of red bars, price action has stopped making lower lows, suggesting that sellers are losing effectiveness.In practical terms, this means that buyers are quietly absorbing supply near the bid, while sellers continue to hit the market without pushing prices materially lower. This type of divergence between delta (net buy/sell volume) and price movement often hints at early accumulation rather than continued liquidation.Key Technical PicturePoint of Control (POC): 1,489 — This remains the most important short-term reference, serving as a line in the sand between bulls and bears.Value Area Low (VAL): 1,477 — Also the current session low, confirming this area as the first layer of structural support.VWAP: 1,501.5 — Price is oscillating just below this volume-weighted mean, located near the psychological round number of 1,500. A sustained close above it would strengthen the bullish recovery case.Value Area High (VAH): 1,512 — The next breakout threshold; a move above it could open the path toward 1,520–1,535, where the first upper VWAP deviation sits.Why the Bias Remains BullishAlthough the broader market is still digesting the steep drop, our orderFlow Intel readings show that buyers have been absorbing the most aggressive sell pressure near 1,477–1,489. This is visible in the delta and volume relationships, which reveal that sellers are still active, but their actions are being offset by hidden demand from larger participants.That’s why Palladium now carries a Prediction Score of +7 (Bullish Bias / High Confidence) on our scale of −10 to +10. The score reflects a constructive structure with solid buy absorption, even if short-term volatility remains high.Key Levels to WatchPalladium Price Prediction and the Path to the Technical RecoveryWhile Friday’s collapse shook out many long positions, current data suggests that institutional buyers may be rebuilding exposure near the lower range. The 1,489–1,477 region is now the battleground that determines whether Palladium stabilizes or resumes its slide.If prices can sustain above VWAP and later clear 1,512, a technical recovery toward 1,535–1,555 becomes likely. For now, Palladium holds a bullish bias, but with traders fully aware that this is a second attempt after a failed long last week and that such setups can carry both high reward potential and meaningful risk.Disclosure: This analysis is for educational and decision-support purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Futures trading carries significant risk.For real-time trade ideas and execution plans, follow the investingLive Stocks Telegram channel. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Likely to maintain view economy on course for moderate recovery, despite headwinds from US tariffsThis is a report from Reuters citing sources. There's nothing new here though. BoJ members have already mentioned this many times. Seems like there's no willing from the BoJ to hike rates pre-emptively at the October meeting, but keep an eye on more "leaks" ahead of the meeting. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Fundamental OverviewThe USD strengthened a bit on Friday following some positive Trump’s comments on China as Treasury yields bounced and erased the Thursday’s losses. Overall, the US dollar performance has been mixed as markets have been driven by quick changes in risk sentiment since Trump’s tariffs threat. On the domestic side, the US government shutdown continues to delay many key US economic reports. The dollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to keep going, especially on the labour market side, so any hiccup on that front is weighing on the greenback. The BLS will release the US CPI report on Friday despite the shutdown, so that’s going to be a key risk event. That will need to be seen in the context of US-China relations and any negative shock by that time though. If things go south, then the CPI will not matter much as growth fears will trump everything else. On the CHF side, nothing has changed. The SNB left interest rates steady and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting. SNB’s President Schlegel didn’t offer any forward guidance but he did say that the bar to cut rates further is very high and negative inflation prints in the short-term won’t be enough. The last Swiss inflation prints rebounded a bit but there’s a long way to go before breaching their 2% inflation limit. So, this leaves the CHF trading mostly based on risk sentiment.USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF broke below the major upward trendline last week and extended the drop into the 0.7872 level before pulling back a bit after some positive Trump’s comments on tariffs. If the price rolls over again, we can expect the buyers to step in around the 0.7872 level with a defined risk below it to keep targeting a rally into the 0.8073 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. We are trading a bit above the trendline with some evident rejections. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely pile in here to target a rally into the 0.8073 level next.USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the price action around the trendline and the minor resistance zone around the 0.7935 level. The sellers will likely continue to step in below the resistance, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsThe focus remains on the US-China developments but on Friday we will also get the US CPI report and the US flash PMIs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Domestic sight deposits CHF 451.1 bn vs CHF 451.7 bn priorSwiss sight deposits are little changed in the past week, keeping thereabouts as we have seen recently. Carry on as you will. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The risk mood is on the more positive side to start the day but there's not too much appetite in major currencies for now. The dollar is lightly changed with dollar pairs holding narrow ranges, all within 0.1% change as we get things going in European morning trade.USD/JPY remains the more interesting one with the pair having run up to a high of 151.20 earlier but the move was denied by the 100-hour moving average. The pair is now trading flattish, with traders having to balance out lesser political uncertainty in Japan against the backdrop of Sanae Takaichi's premiership.Besides that, EUR/USD continues to hold closer to its 100-day moving average of 1.1650 after the run up last week was dealt a setback on Friday. Overall, major currencies remain largely cautious amid a mix of having to watch out for US-China headlines, the US government shutdown, and waiting on the FOMC meeting decision later this month. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Monday starts quietly, with no major economic releases scheduled for the FX market. However, traders will keep an eye on Bank of Canada's business outlook survey for insights into business sentiment. On Tuesday, attention will turn to Canada’s inflation data, which will be the key highlight of the day and Wednesday the focus will shift to the U.K.'s CPI figures. Thursday brings Canada’s retail sales data and U.S. existing home sales, both of which will provide updates on consumer activity and housing market conditions. The week concludes on Friday with a busy data calendar featuring manufacturing and services PMI releases for Australia, the U.K., the eurozone, and the U.S. In addition, the U.S. will publish its inflation data, revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and UoM inflation expectations, as well as the new home sales figures. The BoC's business outlook survey is expected to show a modest improvement in sentiment following recent uncertainty surrounding trade conditions. Some signs of stabilization have already emerged, with the CFIB small business confidence index edging back above neutral in September. Retail sales in Canada are also expected to rebound by 1.0% after a 0.8% decline previously. The data will be closely monitored for indications of whether household spending remains resilient. RBC’s credit card data suggests steady momentum in September, although overall consumer spending growth in Q3 appears to have moderated compared with Q2. The consensus for Canada's CPI m/m is –0.1%, unchanged from the prior month. The median CPI y/y is expected to ease slightly from 3.1% to 3.0%, while the trimmed CPI y/y is likely to remain steady at 3.0%. The common CPI y/y, however, is projected to edge higher from 2.5% to 2.6%. This week’s inflation report will be closely watched for clues on the BoC’s next policy decisions. Last month’s data showed that inflation pressures eased more than expected, and combined with ongoing softness in the labor market, prompted the BoC to cut rates by 25 bps at its latest meeting. The Bank has indicated that future rate cuts remain on the table and will be guided by incoming data. Markets are currently pricing in another 25 bps cut this quarter. A sharper-than-expected decline in inflation, paired with a weak business outlook survey due today, could accelerate the timing of further easing. Although the latest labor market data surprised to the upside, with the unemployment rate falling from 7.2% to 7.1%, one stronger report is unlikely to deter the BoC from its gradual path toward additional rate cuts. In the U.K., the consensus for CPI y/y is for an increase from 3.8% to 4.0%, while core CPI y/y is expected to edge higher from 3.6% to 3.7%. According to analysts at ING, the rise in inflation is largely driven by base effects from the sharp drop in petrol prices in September last year. However, this is likely to mark the peak for headline inflation, even if a substantial decline is not yet expected. Services inflation is also anticipated to show modest improvement, potentially coming in below the BoE’s projections. Inflationary pressures remain a concern in the U.K., particularly with food prices still elevated. Markets currently expect the BoE to deliver another rate cut at its February meeting next year, as policymakers balance easing inflation against lingering cost-of-living pressures. In the U.S., the consensus for existing home sales is 4.06M, up slightly from the prior 4.00M. Sales remain under pressure as high mortgage rates, elevated home prices, and rising insurance costs continue to weigh on affordability. However, analysts at Wells Fargo note that conditions have begun to ease modestly, with mortgage rates falling nearly 48 bps since mid-July and housing supply gradually improving. While affordability remains constrained, these developments could help support a mild recovery in sales. The October Eurozone PMI will offer insight into whether the region can sustain the modest growth seen in September. The composite PMI rose to a 16-month high of 51.2 last month, though the headline figure masked a mixed picture: services remained in expansion while manufacturing slipped back into contraction. Forecasts point to little change in October, reinforcing concerns about the durability of growth momentum amid ongoing weakness in industrial output and retail activity. From a monetary policy perspective, the ECB is unlikely to cut rates at its next meeting but analysts anticipate another reduction in December. The timing will depend on the euro’s strength and the pace of disinflation, with a lingering risk that any further easing could be delayed into 2026 if conditions fail to align. U.S. inflation data will finally be released this week, just ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Consensus is for core CPI to rise 0.3% m/m, unchanged from the prior reading, while the headline CPI is also expected to increase 0.4% m/m. Although the U.S. government shutdown is still ongoing and has disrupted several other data releases, the inflation figures should remain unaffected since most data collection was completed beforehand. Risks to data quality may only emerge if the shutdown extends further into subsequent releases. Inflation, however, remains stubbornly high. August CPI accelerated to a 2.9% annual pace, with core inflation running hotter at 3.1% amid rising goods prices. Wells Fargo analysts expect little relief in September, projecting headline CPI to advance 0.4% on the month which would lift the annual rate to 3.1%, its highest level in more than a year. Core CPI is forecast to climb 0.3% for the third consecutive month, keeping the year-on-year rate steady at 3.1%. Such results would underscore the limited progress in cooling inflation ahead of the Fed’s next policy decision. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.8%Germany DAX +1.0%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX +1.0%Italy FTSE MIB +1.1%US-China trade tensions remain the main driver and for now, there is an air of optimism ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting next week. Investors are hoping for good news to come before the meeting and more to follow after as well. That as we also gear towards the next rate cut by the Fed at the end of the month. US futures are sitting higher with S&P 500 futures up 0.4% on the day, so that's helping with the mood too. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Fundamental OverviewThe USD strengthened a bit on Friday following some positive Trump’s comments on China as Treasury yields bounced and erased the Thursday’s losses. Overall, the US dollar performance has been mixed as markets have been driven by quick changes in risk sentiment since Trump’s tariffs threat. On the domestic side, the US government shutdown continues to delay many key US economic reports. The dollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to keep going, especially on the labour market side, so any hiccup on that front is weighing on the greenback. The BLS will release the US CPI report on Friday despite the shutdown, so that’s going to be a key risk event. That will need to be seen in the context of US-China relations and any negative shock by that time though. If things go south, then the CPI will not matter much as growth fears will trump everything else. On the JPY side, the currency strengthened recently on the risk-off sentiment that got triggered by Trump’s tariffs threat. Domestically, the LDP party agreed to form a coalition with the Ishin party paving the way for Takaichi to become Prime Minister. On the monetary policy side, nothing has changed with traders assigning just a 23% probability of a rate hike at the October meeting and 45% chance of a rate hike by year-end.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY broke below the major support zone around the 151.00 handle and extended the drop into the 149.38 level. We just got a pullback, so we can expect the sellers to step in on the retest of the support now turned resistance and position for a fall into the 148.50 support next. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and pile in for a rally into the 153.00 handle next. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum right around the major resistance zone. Again, this is where we can expect the sellers to step in to target new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into the top trendline. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we already got a rejection from the resistance. If the price breaks below the most recent swing low at 150.34, we can expect the sellers to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsThe focus remains on the US-China developments but on Friday we will also get the US CPI report and the US flash PMIs. Watch the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

News of this from the weekend:Japan has agreed a coalition government - paves way for Takaichi PM - yen a little higherYen's moving the right way now! Takaichi closer to being PM.Updating now:Ishin party leader Yoshimura says mostly agreed on conditions with LDP to form coalitionWill meet LDP leader Takaichi at 0900 GMT to formalise the coalition agreementJapan will hold a parliamentary vote to pick a new PM to replace outgoing Shigeru Ishiba on October 21. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China's top trade negotiator Li Chenggang removed from post as permanent WTO representativeXinhua report.No further details for now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) sectoral factor model of core inflation 2.7% y/y in Q3prior also 2.7% Earlier:New Zealand Q3 CPI +1% q/q (expected +1%) and +3% y/y (expected +3%) The RBNZ target band is keeping inflation within 1% to 3%.***Reserve Bank of New Zealand's sectoral factor model of inflation, its preferred measure.The model is based on the idea that inflation in each sector of the economy is influenced by a common set of underlying factors or "factors" such as changes in interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.The model describes how inflation in each sector of the economy is affected by the underlying factors. Estimates are derived from data on past inflation rates and other relevant indicators and are used to generate forecasts for future inflation in each sector.The RBNZ sectoral factor model of inflation is particularly useful because it allows the central bank to identify the sources of inflationary pressures in different parts of the economy. For example, if inflation is rising rapidly in the housing sector, the RBNZ can use the model to determine whether this is due to changes in interest rates or other factors specific to the housing market. By understanding the sources of inflationary pressures, the RBNZ can adjust its monetary policy to target inflation effectively and achieve its inflation targets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Chinese economic activity data for September 2025.Retail Sales (YoY) +3.0%expected +2.9%, prior +3.4%Industrial Production (YoY) +6.5%expected +5.0%, prior +5.2%Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) -0.5% expected +0.2%, prior +0.5%Property Investment YTD (Y/Y) -13.9%expected –13.1%, prior –12.9%Unemployment rate 5.2%prior 5.2%A mixed lot data this. The investment slump and property investment black hole weigh on growth. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Economic growth data from China for the July - September quarterGross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q3) +4.8%, in line with the consensus expectationexpected +4.8%, prior +5.2% Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3) +1.1%, beating expectationsexpected +0.8%, prior +1.1%The y/y rate is the slowest in in a year. The ongoing property slump and trade tensions are hurting demand. Pressure remains on policymakers to pump out further stimulus to bolster momentum. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Moody's Analytics forecasts that China's economic data, due for release at the top of the hour, will show a significant deceleration in growth. The firm anticipates GDP growth will slow sharply to 4.2% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the second quarter.Further weakening is expected in domestic demand, with retail sales growth forecast to ease to 3%. This slowdown is partially attributed to a less favourable base effect due to the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival. Additionally, industrial production is expected to be weak because of ongoing overcapacity issues, and fixed-asset investment growth probably slowed, primarily weighed down by heightened tensions between the US and China. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

more to come China New Home Prices -0.41% m/m, fastest fall in 11 monthsprior –0.30%y/y -2.2% (prior -2.5%)Used Home Prices -0.64% m/mprior –0.58%-3.2% y/y (prior -3.5%)Home prices in 70 major cities in China fell m/m.The property crisis in China has been ongoing for multiple years. Its continuing to weigh heavily on growth and consumer confidence.-More data from China is due at the top of the hour:Economic calendar in Asia Monday, October 20, 2025: NZ CPI, China data, PBOC rate setting This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.The previous close was 7.1277PBoC injects CNY 189bln via 7-day reverse repos, rate at unchanged 1.40%the net drain today is 64.8bn yuan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People's Bank of China sets its 1 and 5 year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) rates unchanged.The PBOC uses the reverse reop rate as its main policy rate now. Currently 1.4%.Most lending in China is tied to the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate guides mortgage pricing. Both rates were last trimmed by 10 basis points in May. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China September rare earth magnet exports at 5,774 metric tons, down from 6,146 tons in August-customs dataGermany, South Korea, Vietnam, the United States and Mexico are China’s top five export destinations for rare earth magnet by volume in September-customs dataChina’s September rare earth magnet exports to the United States fell 28.7% from August-customs data This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. How the process works:Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.