Trump says ceasefire in Gaza still in effectSays he can confirm Senator Graham’s statement on Colombia tariffs (Trump told media he would impose tariffs on Colombia as punishment for its drug trade and would announce the rate on Monday)US is considering buying beef from ArgentinaWill announce more on tariff at Colombia on MondayHe did not discuss Ukraine ceding Donbas region to RussiaRegion should stay as it is now with Russia having some 78% of itIndia will continue to pay ‘massive’ tariffs if they dont restrict Russian oil purchasesModi had told him ‘he’s not going to be doing the Russian oil thing’Says I want China to buy soybeans at least in the amount they were buying beforeSays he believes China will make a deal on soybean“We can lower” what China has to pay in tariffs, but China has to “do things for us too”Says do not want China to play rare earth game with usTrump in a briefing to reporters on Air Force One, anf in an interview on Fox. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Copper demand drivers shift from China to the US and India - market fragmentation replaces a single dominant consumer as global consumption slows in Asia.The global copper market is undergoing a fundamental shift as China’s decades-long infrastructure and industrial expansion slows. Analysts forecast that China’s share of global consumption will drop from 57% to an estimated 52% by 2031, signalling a return to fragmented, replacement-cycle drivers outside of Asia.Future demand growth will be led by the United States and India, both requiring vast amounts of copper for massive infrastructure overhauls.United States: US copper demand is forecast to surge by nearly 50% by 2031, driven primarily by the modernisation of its ageing power grid and the construction of new AI data centres.India: India’s demand is expected to rise by over 30%, fuelled by the expansion of its electrical transmission network necessary to support its national goal of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based energy capacity.This trend is accelerated by geopolitical factors. US policies, including a 50% tariff on Chinese copper products, are actively encouraging local manufacturing and reducing the market for China’s exported manufactured goods. These regional policy and infrastructure cycles mean producers and investors must adapt to a less centralised, multi-driver global market. ---Info via Reuters. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Secret Service discovers "suspicious stand" near Trump's airport access in FloridaThe US Secret Service recently found a "suspicious stand," which appeared to be a hunting platform set up in a tree, near the area of Palm Beach International Airport (PBI) used by Air Force One when President Donald Trump travels to Florida.found during a routine security sweep ahead of President Trump's arrival last FridayFBI Director Kash Patel officially confirmed the discovery on social media, stating that the FBI is now investigating A Secret Service spokesperson confirmed no immediate threatthe stand was 200 yards away across a highway in a tree line, appeared to have been there for months This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US Vice President J.D. Vance spoke on two main points regarding security and foreign policy:Hamas Disarmament: He asserted that there is currently no adequate security infrastructure established to ensure that Hamas is disarmed.Aid to Ukraine: He added that President Donald Trump has not yet made a decision on whether to provide Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The UK housing market is losing its usual autumn momentum, with asking prices seeing only a minor rise, according to Rightmove. This adds to signs of uncertainty ahead of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' budget in November.Average asking prices rose just 0.3% in the four weeks to 11 October, well below the typical 1.1% increase for this time of year, and were down 0.1% compared to a year ago.+0.3% m/m in Octoberprior +0.4%-0.1% y/yprior -0.1% alsoThe main cause, says Rightmove, is the impending budget, with potential buyers adopting a "wait and see" approach. This is driven by speculation that the budget may increase the cost of buying or owning property, especially at the higher end of the market in the south of England.This slowdown is consistent with other industry indicators, such as a recent report from Halifax showing the weakest annual price growth since April 2024. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The UK government has launched a new initiative called 'Sterling 20' to encourage the country's largest pension funds to invest more money into domestic infrastructure and businesses.The government wants to create a more coordinated effort among the UK's 20 largest pension funds, alongside the City of London Corporation, to channel pension savings into local projects to stimulate economic growth and create jobs.Funds will be directed towards British infrastructure, affordable housing, regeneration schemes, and high-growth sectors like Artificial Intelligence.Legal & General (L&G) pledged to invest £2 billion in UK "impact" projects over five years, which will include developing 10,000 affordable homes. Nest also committed to investing around £100 million in UK assets.This initiative is part of a wider drive to reverse a trend where UK pension funds invest a relatively small percentage of their assets domestically compared to other countries. The announcement also comes ahead of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' budget in November, where potential tax rises could affect business confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Kering and L'Oréal will link up in a partnership. The decision, led by Kering's new CEO Luca de Meo, is a strategic move to address the luxury group's substantial debt and allow it to refocus on its core luxury fashion business.As part of the 4 billion euro deal, L'Oréal will take ownership of the high-end fragrance brand Creed. L'Oréal also secured a long-term agreement—a 50-year exclusive license—to develop beauty and fragrance products under Kering's major fashion labels, Bottega Veneta and Balenciaga.---Both Kering and L'Oréal are French companies and are primarily listed on the Euronext Paris stock exchange.Here are the main listings and ticker codes:Kering: Listed on Euronext Paris (main listing), with the ticker symbol KER (formerly PRTP.PA). It is a component of the CAC 40 indexL'Oréal: Listed on Euronext Paris (main listing), with the ticker symbol OR (or OREP.PA). It is also a component of the CAC 40 index.Both are very large, blue-chip companies in France's main stock market index. They also have secondary listings or trade over-the-counter in other markets, such as the US.-Earlier re France:France downgraded to A+ by S&P. Outlook from 'negative' to 'stable' This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The yen gained a little ground earlier:Japan has agreed a coalition government - paves way for Takaichi PM - yen a little higherThe market perception is that Takaichi is not a yen positive. That's becoming more eivdent in the yen rate now:USD/JPY is above 150.83EUR/JPY on approach to 175.80Take care with position sizing at this hour. Its still early:9.25 am in Sydney7.25am in Tokyo6.25am in Hong Kong and SingaporeNikkei futures are stronger. while I'm here, ES and NQ are up a touch also This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand Q3 consumer price index +1.0% vs PVS Qtr (Reuters poll +1.0%)+3.0% vs year ago (Reuters poll +3.0%). Highest since the second quarter of 2024. The RBNZ target band is 1-3%.Consumer price index non-tradables +1.1% vs PVS qtrConsumer price index non-tradables +3.5% vs yr agoCore inflation +0.8% q/q and +2.5% y/y The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on a rate cut cycle, the Bank is concerned about growth. Later today we'll get the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's own Sector Factor Inflation model data2pm New Zealand time0100 GMT / 2100 US Eastern time This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ECB President Christine Lagarde spoke in an interview on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday. It was a wide-ranging interview.On the US dollar:Lagarde suggested that the US dollar's dominance is starting to decline, noting that future developments will show the extent of this erosion. As evidence, she pointed to the recent rally in gold prices and a trend of capital flowing out of the US and into regions like Europe.Lagarde outlined the three essential components required for a currency to maintain global trust:Geopolitical credibilityRule of law and strong institutionsA powerful military forceShe acknowledged that the US remains in a "very dominant position" on at least one, and possibly two, of these fronts, but she issued a warning that such dominance is not permanent and could "erode over the course of time."On tariffs and trade:Regarding the global economic impact of higher US tariffs, Lagarde stated that the full negative effects have yet to be felt. Currently, both US and European companies are absorbing roughly two-thirds of the tariff costs by reducing their profit margins. However, this is unsustainable. She cautioned that once margins become too strained, the burden will inevitably be passed on to consumers, making the pain a "question of time."On China and rare earths:Commenting on the dispute over China's export restrictions on rare earths and the US's retaliatory threats, Lagarde initially suggested that much of the current rhetoric is just "typical of negotiating tactics." However, she stressed that China possesses a "very, very strong trading position" in this area and intends to leverage it. To counter this, she urged the US, Europe, and other affected countries to "join forces" and act as a unified "purchasing force" to gain leverage against China's selling power. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

S&P cut France's rating one notch, citing concerns that recent political turmoil jeopardizes the government's ability to fix the country's finances.The downgrade followed a tumultuous week where Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu barely survived two no-confidence votes in parliament. To gain enough support to stay in power, his new government had to sacrifice President Emmanuel Macron's deeply unpopular 2023 pension reform—a major policy concession.S&P anticipates that this policy uncertainty will negatively affect the French economy by dampening both business investment and consumer spending, which will consequently slow economic growth.Finance Minister Roland Lescure responded by emphasizing the urgent, shared responsibility of the government and parliament to pass the 2026 budget before the end of the year. This action is crucial to demonstrate how France plans to manage its rising debt, which S&P projects will climb from an estimated 112% of GDP at the end of 2024 to 121% of GDP by 2028. Passing the budget is seen as a necessary step to reassure markets about France's path toward the EU's 3% of GDP deficit ceiling by 2029.S&P revised France's outlook from 'negative' to 'stable', noting that the downgrade balances the risk of increasing government debt and the lack of a strong political agreement on budget cuts against France's underlying economic strengths. However, the agency still sees a high level of uncertainty regarding public finances leading up to the 2027 presidential elections. ---The S&P downgrade of France, the Eurozone's second-largest economy, puts downward pressure on the euro primarily by shaking investor confidence in the bloc's overall political and fiscal cohesion. While the immediate market reaction might be contained (as the downgrade was somewhat anticipated), the move highlights the country's rising debt-to-GDP ratio and the political gridlock that complicates efforts to rein in the deficit. This risk premium—the higher borrowing cost investors demand from a politically unstable country like France—can cause the spread between French and "safe-haven" German bond yields to widen, which historically has been interpreted as a negative signal for the euro. Ultimately, prolonged political instability and failure to manage debt in a core Eurozone member weakens the economic and governing credibility of the entire monetary union, making the euro less attractive relative to other major currencies like the US dollar. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand Q3 2025 inflation data is not expected to be too helpful to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Bank is continuing to cut rates on growth fears, but today's data is expected to show higher y/y inflation. From China we have September 'economic activity'the rates of growth are expected to have slipped a little on all three main measuresalong with Q3 GDPalso expected to show a slightly slower rate of growthThe rate setting from the People's Bank of China is due also. No change is expected. The loan prime rate (LPR):one-year currently 3.00%five-year LPRs currently 3.50%The main policy rate is now the seven-day reverse repo rate, currently at 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online ... prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there.Indicative rates only: EUR/USD 1.1665USD/JPY 150.42 Japan has agreed a coalition government - paves way for Takaichi PM - yen a little higherGBP/USD 1.3434USD/CHF 0.7926USD/CAD 1.4020AUD/USD 0.6494NZD/USD 0.5734 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party have reached a broad agreement to form a coalition government, paving the way for the country to see its first female prime minister, Kyodo News reported on Sunday. According to the report, LDP leader Sanae Takaichi and Ishin chief Hirofumi Yoshimura are expected to formally sign their coalition pact on Monday.Yen is a little stronger on the news over the weekend. USD/JPY is around 150.40. -The background to all this is that the LDP elected Sanae Takaichi as its first female leader and likely next prime minister two weeks ago. She has since had difficulty in gaining required coalition support though. The yen was trashed on her election, she is a supporter of further fiscal support and loose monetary policy. As her path to PM had become obstructed, though, the yen recovered some ground. It's a bit of a limited bid for the yen in the early hours given Takaichi is perceived as negative for the yen. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mon: PBoC LPR, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), Chinese House Prices (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep) & Industrial Output (Sep), German Producer Prices (Sep), US Leading Index (Sep), New Zealand Trade (Sep)Tue: NBH Policy Announcement, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), UK PSNB (Sep), Canadian CPI (Sep)Wed: CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd); UK CPI (Sep), Japanese Trade Balance (Sep)Thu: CBRT, BOK Policy Announcement, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), European Council (23rd-24th); US Weekly Claims, Existing Home Sales (Sep), EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Oct), Canadian Retail Sales (Aug), Australian Flash PMIs (Oct)Fri: CBR Policy Announcement, European Council (23rd-24th), Japanese CPI (Sep), UK Retail Sales (Sep), EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Oct), US New Home Sales (Sep)PBoC LPR (Mon): The PBoC is to announce China’s benchmark Loan Prime Rates next week, which are likely to be maintained at their current levels, with the 1-year LPR at 3.00% which is the rate most new loans are based on and with the 5-year LPR at 3.50% which is the reference for mortgages. As a reminder, Chinese banks refrained from any adjustments to the LPRs for a fourth consecutive month in September, which was as expected, while PBoC Governor Pan commented shortly after the announcement that they will use various policy tools based on the economic situation and will be data-driven, and have "appropriately accommodative policy stance". Furthermore, the central bank had previously noted that it is to step up monetary policy adjustment and keep liquidity ample, as well as enhance interest rate guidance and will promote a decline in social financing cost. Despite the language from the central bank, an imminent reduction in the LPRs is unlikely, as the central bank has shown a clear preference for making adjustments through its main policy tool of open market operations to target liquidity. Furthermore, the recent data from China was mixed as trade figures showed faster-than-expected growth in Exports and Imports for the world’s second-largest economy, which suggests a lack of urgency to immediately cut benchmark lending rates, although CPI data was softer-than-expected, and both consumer and factory gate prices remained in deflation.CCP 4th Plenum (Mon-Thu): The Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee will hold its Fourth Plenum from October 20th to October 23rd, with the meeting expected to set the framework for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). The session will offer the first indication of Beijing’s medium-term policy priorities, but will be closed with only a brief communiqué released at the end. Detailed policy targets are unlikely before March, when the National People’s Congress convene, although sources till then may offer hints. “Of particular interest are priorities for development, including how to expand consumption, foster innovation, and the strategic focuses going forward”, says ING. The plenum also coincides with rising US-Sino trade tensions after China tightened rare earth export controls, and the US threatened new tariffs of 100%, although Trump and Xi are still set to meet in South Korea.Chinese Activity Data (Mon): China will release Q3 GDP alongside September’s activity data. GDP Q/Q is forecast at 0.8% (prev. 1.1%), Y/Y 4.7% (prev. 5.2%). Retail Sales expected at 2.9% Y/Y (prev. 3.4%). Industrial Production 5.0% (prev. 5.2%). Fixed Asset Investments are expected at 0.2% Y/Y (prev. 0.5%). ING expects Q3 GDP to show a sharper slowdown to around 4.5% Y/Y, citing weaker consumption, sluggish investment, and ongoing property sector weakness, with September price data likely to confirm continued declines. The IMF this week maintained its 2025 China growth forecast at 4.8% (vs China’s target of “around 5%”), noting that fiscal support and resilient exports have offset tariff headwinds but warning that the property sector remains fragile and credit demand subdued. The data also comes at a time were US-Sino trade tensions are heightened, following China’s rare earths export controls and the subsequent threat of a 100% tariff from November 1st from the US.Japanese Parliament Vote for New PM (Mon): Japan’s LDP and CDP have agreed to hold a parliamentary vote on October 21st to select Japan’s next PM following the collapse of the 26-year-old ruling LDP-Komeito coalition last week. LDP leader Takaichi remains the frontrunner, with Bloomberg reporting that talks between the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) have advanced toward a potential coalition that would give the LDP an additional 35 seats, still shy of an outright majority but sufficient to secure Takaichi’s confirmation. Innovation Party co-leader Yoshimura said the chances of a deal were “50-50”, although co-leader Fujita later announced “big progress” with the LDP following talks, and suggested they will enter the stage of finalising details, but final discussions are very delicate.Canadian CPI (Tue): This is the last inflation report before the October BoC meeting, where markets price in 16bps of easing, implying a 64% probability of a 25bps rate cut - 25bps is not fully priced until December. The data will help shape rate cut expectations, with rate cut bets paring after the recent strong labour market report. The recent inflation report saw a -0.1% decline with the Y/Y at 1.9%, up from the 1.7% in July. Meanwhile, the core metrics (excluding food and energy) declined 0.2% M/M, with Y/Y to 2.4% Y/Y. The M/M declines will be welcome with Y/Y inflation still within the BoC's target. The BoC preferred measures, average of the median, trim and common, remain towards the top-end of the BoC target at 2.86%. The BoC removed forward guidance when it cut rates by 25bps in September, but Governor Macklem said it will continue to assess the risks, look over a shorter horizon than usual, and be ready to respond to new information. The September rate cut was agreed due to the weaker economy, fewer upside risks to inflation, and a softening labour market. Recent growth data saw a 0.2% rise in July, while StatsCan signalled stagnation for August; OxEco suggested Canada may avoid another GDP contraction in Q3 after a 0.4% decline in Q2. Labour market data in September was strong, while the upcoming CPI data will give the BoC a fresh read on the inflation situation. Note, a recent speech from Governor Mendes said the bank is studying whether there are ways they could improve existing measures of core inflation, noting the language around the BoC's preferred measures may have led markets to place more emphasis on these core measures than the BoC itself. It is asking whether they should revise the preferred measures so they all pre-exclude mortgage interest costs. He stressed the BoC does not want Canadians or financial markets to become overly focused on a single indicator.UK PSNB (Tue): The August release came in markedly above expectations at GBP 17.96bln (exp. 12.75bln), and the prior being revised higher by c. GBP 1.7bln. Pertinently, the figure eclipsed the OBR’s GBP 12.5bln forecast for August and took the fiscal YTD borrowing figure (i.e. April-August) to GBP 83.24bln vs GBP 72.4bln forecast by the OBR. Some of the upside in August was due to local borrowing, coming in GBP 4.7bln higher Y/Y, a component that is often subject to notable revision. Since the release, HMRC alerted the ONS to a VAT receipt error which overstated the fiscal YTD borrowing figure by some GBP 2bln; while this will be corrected in September’s series, the cumulative borrowing figure remains just under GBP 10bln higher than the OBR’s forecast. For September, public borrowing is expected to show another increase with elevated yields continuing to apply pressure to the fiscal situation. However, that narrative has improved from a Treasury perspective since October 10th, with the UK 10-year yield at its lowest since July. While this has occurred too late to impact the September series, it will be reflected in the data set just before Chancellor Reeves’ Autumn Budget is published on November 26th.UK CPI (Wed): Expectations are for headline Y/Y CPI to advance to 4.0% from 3.8%, which would match the MPC forecast and signify its highest reading since January 2024. As a reminder, the prior release saw headline Y/Y CPI hold steady at 3.8%, core slip to 3.6% from 3.8% and services decline to 4.7% from 5.0% on account of volatile air price inflation. This time around, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics (hold a consensus 4.0% view for headline Y/Y CPI) expect “motor fuel price and airfare base effects should add 12bp and 11bp, respectively, to CPI inflation in September compared to August”, which would explain most of the rise in headline inflation. On services inflation, the consultancy expects a pick-up to 4.9% from 4.7%, which would underscore the bigger picture of sticky inflation in the UK. Looking beyond the upcoming report, Pantheon expects underlying inflation “will remain stuck around 4% well into next year”. Accordingly, it expects “CPI inflation to slow only slightly, to 3.8%, by the end of 2025”. From a policy perspective, the expected uptick in inflation to double that of the targeted level and the uncertainty posed by the November 26th budget means that a 25bps cut by the MPC is priced at just 14%. However, the ongoing softening in the labour market, which has been a key focus of policymakers in remarks this week, has seen odds of a December reduction move closer towards 50/50 vs. circa 25% at the start of the week.BoK Policy Announcement (Thu): There are somewhat mixed views on whether the central bank will cut or maintain the Base Rate at the current level of 2.50%. As a reminder, the BoJ refrained from any adjustments to its 7-Day Repo Rate at the last meeting in August, which was as expected, although the decision was not unanimous as board member Shin Sung-hwan dissented and saw a need to cut rates to aid growth. The BoK said after the meeting that it will maintain a rate cut stance to mitigate downside risks to economic growth, and adjust the timing and pace of any further base rate cuts. BoK Governor Rhee also stated that a majority of the seven-member board assessed there was a need to work in tandem with government policies to stabilise local property prices, as well as noted that five board members said the door for an imminent rate cut should be open and one board member said the current policy rate should be maintained for the next three months. Furthermore, Rhee said the easing stance will stay through at least the first half of next year, and it is difficult to comment on the terminal policy rate, but added that faster policy rate easing risks overstimulating the local property market at this stage. Nonetheless, some are anticipating a cut at the approaching meeting after the Fed cut rates in September for the first time this year and with money market pricing pointing towards another reduction later this month, while the BoK had also acknowledged that South Korea’s 2025 growth is lower than the potential rate due to previous political turmoil and tariff headwinds. Conversely, some suggested that the central bank could delay its policy easing amid the sustained increases in Seoul housing prices and household loans.CBRT Policy Announcement (Thu): There are currently no market forecasts for what the CBRT may opt to do on Thursday. Last month, the Bank cut the policy rate by 250bps to 40.5% (vs exp. 200bps), while it dropped reference to real TRY appreciation, and signalled that it would begin to moderate the pace of easing amid elevated inflation expectations and ongoing external risks. BBVA Research suggested that the CBRT’s tone was “more balanced,” noting its commitment to tighten policy if inflation deviates significantly from interim targets, though the definition of such a threshold remains unclear. The latest CBRT survey showed end-2025 CPI expectations rising to 31.77% (prev. 29.86%), with the policy rate seen at 28.26% in 12 months.European Council Meeting (Thu):EU leaders will convene in Brussels on October 23rd for a one-day European Council meeting chaired by President Costa, with the agenda dominated by Ukraine, defence, competitiveness, and the Middle East. According to the invitation published on the Council website, the Council will reaffirm long-term financial support for Ukraine and assess options to utilise Russia’s immobilised assets, while also discussing further sanctions to increase pressure on Moscow. On defence, leaders will review the “Defence Readiness 2030” roadmap and seek to advance coordination on capability projects and hybrid threat responses. Economic discussions will focus on simplifying EU regulation, balancing climate goals with competitiveness, and enhancing digital sovereignty, with ECB President Lagarde and Eurogroup President Donohoe attending the Euro Summit segment. The meeting will also address discussions on supporting post-war reconstruction and a two-state solution in Gaza.Japanese CPI (Fri): There are currently no expectations for the Japanese CPI metrics, which saw the prior Core Y/Y print at 2.7%, headline Y/Y at 2.7%, and M/M at 0.1%. The Tokyo CPI, seen as a precursor to the nationwide metric, eased to 2.5% from 2.6% Y/Y, whilst the Core Y/Y missed expectations and remained at 2.5% (exp 2.8%, prev. 2.5%). ING expects nationwide inflation to firm to around 2.9% Y/Y, with core prices likely holding above 3.0%, noting that the recent moderation in inflation has been largely driven by government subsidies for energy and social welfare programs. A sustained rise in core readings could tilt market pricing more towards a hike this year, with year-end pricing currently at a 44% chance of a 25bps BoJ hike by year-end, although pricing for such a move at the October meeting only sits at 21% at the time of writing.UK Retail Sales (Fri): Expectations are for headline M/M retail sales to print flat vs. the 0.5% expansion seen in the prior month. In terms of recent retail indicators, BRC retail sales for September slowed to 2.0% Y/Y from 2.9%. The accompanying report noted, “with the Budget looming large, and households facing higher bills, retail spending rose more slowly than in recent months. Milder weather meant shoppers delayed refreshing Autumn and Winter wardrobes and growth in food sales was largely inflationary rather than volume growth”. Elsewhere, the Barclaycard Consumer Spending showed that overall retail spending declined 0.1% Y/Y, adding that “spending dipped in September as consumers managed budgets more carefully. Nonetheless, categories such as health & beauty, furniture, and clothing remained resilient, as consumers started festive shopping early to spread costs and make the most of seasonal deals”.EZ Flash PMI (Fri): The October series is expected to print in relative proximity to the priors with manufacturing ticking higher to 49.9 (prev. 49.8), services to 51.1 (prev. 51.3) and the composite to 51.0 (prev. 51.2). Following an uptick in the European ZEW figure, while the accompanying German metrics were more mixed, the Sentix print lifted by more than expected but remained in negative territory. As a reminder, and points to look out for this time, in the September series, HCOB highlighted that while new orders were currently insufficient to increase backlogs, service providers were nonetheless taking a more positive view. Furthermore, the nowcast pointed to a quarterly growth rate of 0.4%. However, the EZ’s largest economy remains in focus and a potential headwind as the most recent Bundesbank update pointed to barely any growth in Q3, following on from a particularly dire set of German industrial data for August. Nonetheless, Bundesbank’s Nagel said that “maybe” they will see growth by the end of 2025 as the domestic situation is improving. France will, of course, be in focus given the recent political turmoil, though the slight stabilisation seen in recent sessions may not be entirely accounted for in the data set. For the ECB, the series is unlikely to have much impact on the near-term policy trajectory, with markets implying just 4bps of further easing by end-2025.UK Flash PMI (Fri): Expectations are for flash services PMI to hold steady at 50.8 (manufacturing and composite PMI expectations are not available at the time of writing). As a reminder, the prior release saw the services component decline to 50.8 from 54.2, manufacturing slip to 46.2 from 47.0, with the composite at 50.1 vs. prev. 53.5. The accompanying report noted “many survey respondents suggested that corporate clients had deferred spending decisions until after the Autumn Budget, while households were also hesitant about major purchases”. This time around, analysts at Investec expect October's 'flash manufacturing numbers' to “post a recovery” due to low inventory levels in the prior month, which will require an increase in production to meet demand. For services, the desk expects budget uncertainty to cap any potential upside and looks for a subdued 50.8 print, leaving the composite just above the expansionary threshold at 50.4. From a policy perspective, most of the headlines next week in the UK will be generated by the inflation data on Wednesday. However, a soft outturn with suggestions that the employment sector could be under pressure could add to the narrative that the labour market is becoming an increased source of focus for the MPC.US CPI (Fri):The BLS has recalled staff to finalise the September Consumer Price Index report, essential for calculating next year’s Social Security payments. The White House Office of Management and Budget directed the move, aiming for publication on October 24th (vs the originally scheduled date of October 15th), meaning that Fed officials will see the report ahead of its October 29th meeting. The consensus looks for headline CPI to rise +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.4%), while the core rate is expected to rise by +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.3%). Citigroup is in line with the consensus and sees US core CPI rising 0.28% M/M in September (vs 0.35% M/M in August), as softer housing inflation offsets tariff-driven price pressures; the bank said weaker labour and housing markets are seen as reducing inflation risks, supporting expectations of further Fed easing. The recent FOMC meeting minutes revealed that officials are split over monetary policy due to differing views on inflation and the labour market; most see employment weakening, justifying further rate cuts, but some have noted inflation risks. Still, officials generally see the inflation impact diminishing and expect a return to the 2% target. Analysts have said that the split reflects contrasting assessments on whether current policy is already accommodative or whether additional easing is needed to support jobs. External factors, such as tariffs and the government shutdown limiting economic data, add uncertainty, contributing to a cautious but generally easing stance. Money markets are currently pricing 54bps of easing by the end of this year, signalling two fully discounted 25bps reductions.US Flash Manufacturing PMI (Fri): The PMI data will help shape expectations for the next ISM manufacturing report (due on November 3rd), and will additionally offer insight into how the US economy is performing amid the government shutdown and associated suspended data releases. As a comparison, regional Fed manufacturing indices have so far been mixed in October. The NY Fed gauge showed state factory activity rising to 10.7 from -8.7, marking the third expansion in four months, rebounding from a decline in September as new orders (3.7 from 19.6) and shipments increased; prices paid also ticked up to 52.4 from 46.1; employment rose to 6.2 from -1.2. Meanwhile, the Philly Fed manufacturing release disappointed expectations, with the headline falling from 23.2 to -12.8; new orders increased, however, to 18.2 from 12.4, and while still under 50, prices picked up to 49.2 from 46.8; the employment sub-index fell to 4.6 from 5.6. Writing after the NY Fed release, Pantheon Macroeconomics said the data is signalling that the recent rise in US manufacturing output is likely to continue into Q4; however, subdued employment and capex intentions, weaker regional surveys, and policy uncertainty suggest manufacturers remain cautious about sustaining long-term expansion, adding that price pressures are rising, largely due to tariffs, but broader inflation should be limited by slowing wage growth.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk. This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at investinglive.com.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifent in Malaysia next week to try to make progrses on trade."We will meet in-person next week to continue our discussions," Bessent wrote, after saying they had spoken on the phone Friday and engaged in detailed discussions. Trump will also travel next week to Hungary to meet with Vladimir Putin.Trump has repeatedly signaled that 'China will be fine' on trade and that's led to a relatively sanguine markets, despite his threat of a 100% tariff. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump on China trade: We'll see what happensTrump: I think Putin wants to end the warWH Adviser Hassett on China: Confident we can get back to place that is good for bothBOC's Macklem: We're putting more emphasis on risk when it comes to the next rate decisionFed's Musalem: I could support a path with another cut if more risks to jobsBOE Greene: Core and services inflation are going sidewaysAtlanta Fed GDPNow estimate ticks up, despite the lack of economic dataWTO chief: Urged de-escalation with officials from the US and ChinaMarkets:Gold down $79 to $4245US 10-year yields up 3.5 bps to 4.01%WTI crude oil up 14-cents to $57.63CAD leads, EUR lagsS&P 500 up 0.5%The mood changed in markets early in US trading as Trump and his deputies did the rounds to repeatedly state that they expected a positive outcome with China. That sort of thing underscored the TACO trade and ultimately led to dip buyers winning. It wasn't easy though as heavy selling hit at various times and trading as choppy.The big loser on the day was gold as it fell by as much as $120 at open point before recovering to leave a loss of just under 2%. It's the biggest retracement we've had yet and unnerved parts of the market.An undercurrent in equities was a better mood on bank stocks. Yesterday, a $50 million writedown at Zions Bancorp was seen as something of a cockroach in the system but a second look put that into perspective on the banks $89 billion loan book, let alone the financial system. Credit card companies had dumped in the downdraft but were some of the biggest winners today.In FX, the dollar wasn't a big mover as the drought of economic data continues. Yen strength early in the day reversed as nerves calmed while euro strength also reversed. The Canadian dollar benefited despite dovish comments from Macklem but all the moves in FX were limited to 30 pips.Have a great weekend. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Stock futures were deeply negative at one point but the market made an impressive turnaround helped by more TACO comments from the President.On the day:S&P 500 +0.5%Nasdaq Comp +0.6%DJIA +0.6%Russell 2000 -0.6%Toronto TSX Comp -1.0%On the week:S&P 500 +1.7%Nasdaq Comp +2.1%DJIA +1.6%Russell 2000 +2.5%Toronto TSX Comp +1.0%It was a positive week for stocks but the entire set of price action was within last Friday's range, as we wait for trade clarity. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

No one looks smart calling for stock markets to go up, but you can look smart or you can be right so here's what I'm thinking:The market got skittish in October.To me, it wasn't any single thing but a whole bunch at once:September saw an intense rally in stock marketsTrump and China picking a new trade fightThe government shutdownThe regular geopolitical uncertaintyLet's skip ahead to the end of the month and think about what's possible.Stocks have consolidated and October seasonals are good (getting even better in Nov/Dec)Trump continues to insist China is fine and leaders will meet Nov 1The government shutdown will inevitably endThere is the tail risk of a ceasefire in UkraineNow I'm not saying any of those things are going to happen, and the timeline on others could bleed into November but I think the risks to all of those are positive developments. The drag could be corporate earnings reports, which will really start to heat up but so far companies have been fairly upbeat. At worst I think it's a two-way risk. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

How do you say cutting rates without saying it? It sure sounds to me like he's signaling a cut at the October 29 meeting. At present, market pricing is only at 68% for a cut, though one is fully priced in at the December meeting so that might not tee up a big CAD move.I hope we can be a bit more forward-looking but there is a lot of uncertainty and we need to be humble about our forecastsWe expect growth to resume but we expect it to be be soft and probably a little below potentialGrowth is not going to feel very good and it's certainty not going to be enough close the output gapVery dovish stuff. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.