China’s imports of Canadian oil are set for a record October, exceeding 5 mn bbl so far.70% of Vancouver shipments are heading to China as it reduces reliance on US crude.Canadian heavy crude prices have strengthened on Asian demand.Vancouver crude now trades at a premium to Texas-loaded Canadian barrels for the first time since 2024.---China’s crude imports from Canada are on track for a record month in October, as Chinese refiners pivot away from US supplies amid escalating trade tensions, according to Vortexa ship-tracking data. Report comes via Bloomberg. Nearly 5 million barrels of crude have departed Vancouver so far this month — the highest volume for the first half of any month on record. More than 70% of those cargoes are bound for Chinese ports, with most of the rest heading to the US West Coast or trans-shipment points near Los Angeles.Chinese buyers have been stockpiling foreign crude at more than 500,000 barrels a day, taking advantage of steep discounts on Russian and Iranian oil while diversifying supply sources. The latest uptick in Canadian shipments comes after Beijing imposed retaliatory port fees on US-linked vessels, raising freight costs for American crude.Rising Asian demand has strengthened Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude, which was trading at a $10.20 discount to WTI on Thursday — the narrowest since July, despite seasonal weakness in Q4. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Singapore’s exports rose 6.9% y/y in September, beating expectations for a 2.1% fall.Gains were led by electronics and shipments to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.US-bound exports fell 9.9% amid new American tariffs.Government still expects 1–3% export growth for 2025, with slower momentum ahead.Pharma tariff implementation delayed pending negotiations.---Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) jumped 6.9% year-on-year in September, a much stronger performance than economists had expected, thanks largely to a rebound in electronics shipments, according to data from Enterprise Singapore.expected -2.1%, prior -11.5%For the m/m, +13.0%expected +9.0%, prior -8.9%Export gains were driven by stronger demand from Hong Kong, Taiwan and China, while shipments to the EU, US and Indonesia fell.Exports to the United States dropped 9.9% from a year earlier after falling nearly 30% in August, reflecting the impact of the 10% tariff Washington imposed on Singaporean goods.Authorities said earlier that front-loading of shipments ahead of U.S. tariffs supported trade in the first half of the year, but warned of slower growth ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. How the process works:Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value.---You'll have noted the PBOC have been bumping up the yuan in this setting, USD/CNY below 7.10. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Standard Chartered says reserve managers are buying the US dollar when it weakens and selling on rallies.Dollar reserves and Bloomberg Dollar Index have moved opposite in 17 of 20 quarters, per IMF data.In Q2 2025, reserves rose as the dollar fell; in Q4 2024, reserves fell as the dollar rallied. The behaviour reflects cautious and opportunistic management by central banks.---Global reserve managers appear to be taking a countercyclical approach to the U.S. dollar, buying when it weakens and trimming holdings when it strengthens, according to Standard Chartered.In a note citing IMF data, StahChart said dollar reserves and the Bloomberg Dollar Index have moved in opposite directions in 17 of the past 20 quarters, suggesting that official managers use currency swings to rebalance portfolios rather than reinforce market trends.Pointed to the second quarter of 2025,the dollar fell 6.6% but official reserves rose by $50 billionlikely because central banks avoided adding to selling pressure. Conversely, in the fourth quarter of 2024, when the dollar gained 7.1%, reserves dropped by $154 billion as managers took profits on strength.StanChart said the pattern reflects a mix of “caution, opportunism, and size”, noting that official institutions remain important stabilising forces in global currency markets.--- This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Kashkari says the economy may be stronger than expected, with limited risk of major slowdown (earlier headline post).Sees labour-market weakness as a bigger risk than renewed inflation.Supports two more rate cuts as insurance, not because of immediate weakness.Inflation may stay near 3%, but unlikely to surge higher.Warns the shutdown is blurring real-time readings of the economy.--- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he doubts the U.S. economy is decelerating as sharply as many believe, suggesting growth remains firmer than commonly assumed even as policymakers weigh additional rate cuts. Kashkari backed the Fed’s September quarter-point rate cut.Speaking at a town hall in Rapid City, South Dakota, Kashkari said the risk of a labour-market downturn is greater than the risk of another inflation surge, but overall he sees both as unlikely“If I had to guess which mistake we’re making, I think we’re more likely overestimating the degree of slowdown”said he still expects two more cuts by year-end, describing them as insurance against unlikely downside scenarios rather than a response to clear weaknessrecalled that similar pre-emptive easing last year helped sustain an unexpectedly resilient labour market.On inflation, Kashkari said it was improbable that price growth would re-accelerate to 4–5%, arguing that current tariff effects are limited. Instead, he warned inflation may linger around 3% for an extended period — above the Fed’s 2% target, but not dangerously high.Kashkari also cautioned that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is making it harder to gauge economic conditions, noting that while policymakers can rely on private data and anecdotal evidence, “the longer it goes on, the less confident I am that we’re reading the economy correctly.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan and Goldman estimate jobless claims fell to ~217k despite data gaps from the shutdown.Both layoffs and hiring remain subdued, keeping the labour market stable but stagnant.Small-business hiring continues to slow, according to Bank of America data.Continuing claims are steady near 1.9 m, consistent with a 4.3% jobless rate.---Info via Reuters reporting. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs estimate that U.S. weekly jobless claims declined to 217,000 in the week ending October 11, down from 235,000 a week earlier, suggesting that layoffs remain limited even as hiring slows.The estimates were compiled using partial state data because the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its third week, has halted official data releases. Economists used historical seasonal adjustments to approximate missing figures from several states, including Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Tennessee.Goldman said its model produced a range between 211,000 and 225,000, depending on assumptions for the unavailable states, while JPMorgan’s Abiel Reinhart noted that the figures “look quite decent,” indicating continued labour-market stability.Economists describe the current backdrop as a “no-hire, no-fire” environment: job losses are minimal, but new hiring is also limited. A Bank of America Institute survey found that small-business hiring activity has slowed, with fewer new business applications listing planned wages — a sign of weakening job creation.Continuing claims, which track people still receiving unemployment benefits, were estimated at roughly 1.9 million, little changed from the previous week. The unemployment rate, last reported at 4.3%, remains near a four-year high. --- This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Westpac says the US dollar’s gains are not growth-driven, given shutdown risks to consumption and investment.Europe and Asia ex-Japan are showing continued resilience, contrary to the dollar’s appreciation.Japan’s leadership change may bring looser policy and a weaker yen, supporting USD/JPY.China’s renminbi is seen as Asia’s relative outperformer amid steady growth and expected stimulus.---The US dollar’s rise this month is not being driven by stronger growth expectations at home but by relative developments abroad, according to a new Westpac analysis. The bank said the prolonged US government shutdown is likely to dampen household consumption and business investment, undermining the case for domestic-led currency gains. Instead, global policy shifts and relative performance across regions appear to be doing the heavy lifting for the greenback.Westpac noted that Europe and Asia (excluding Japan) have both shown resilient activity and diminishing downside risks, a backdrop that would typically weaken the dollar rather than support it.However, Japan remains an exception. The appointment of Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister, if it comes, is widely seen as paving the way for easier monetary policy and a softer yen, indirectly underpinning the dollar’s strength.In contrast, Westpac highlighted China’s renminbi as the best-positioned Asian currency, saying the country has managed 2025’s uncertainty relatively well and is expected to step up economic support measures in coming months. ---Westpac’s analysis suggests the greenback’s rally may be more about relative policy expectations than fundamentals, with Japan’s dovish tilt offsetting resilience in Europe and Asia. The call implies limited near-term downside for USD/JPY but room for CNY outperformance if Chinese stimulus accelerates. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) will be discussed by China’s leadership this month. Nomura expects Beijing to omit a specific growth target, focusing on resilience, security, and inclusiveness. The plan carries greater significance amid global influence and domestic property-market challenges. The final plan will go to the National People’s Congress in March 2026.---Nomura expects Beijing to avoid setting a specific GDP growth target in its upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), opting instead to prioritise themes such as economic resilience, national security, and social inclusiveness.The Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee will meet in Beijing from October 20–23 to discuss the plan, which will outline China’s medium-term economic and social development framework. The final version is scheduled to be submitted to the National People’s Congress for approval in March 2026.Nomura said the next plan may carry greater strategic importance than the current 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), reflecting China’s expanded global influence and the persistent challenges from the prolonged property-market downturn that began in 2021.While acknowledging that the 14th plan achieved several policy goals, the bank said there remains “considerable room for improvement” as Beijing seeks to adapt its economic model to slower growth, demographic shifts, and structural reforms.---Nomura’s outlook signals a shift in China’s policy emphasis from quantitative growth to qualitative stability, implying continued policy support for strategic sectors but fewer stimulus measures aimed at short-term expansion. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

S&P Global projects global tariff costs of $1.2 trillion in 2025.About two-thirds of that cost is expected to be passed on to consumers, not absorbed by companies.Tariffs act as de facto taxes on supply chains, diverting profits toward governments and logistics costs.S&P says the impact estimate is likely conservative given rising input costs and weaker output.---S&P Global estimates that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will cost global businesses around $1.2 trillion in 2025, with consumers expected to bear the majority of the burden.In a new white paper released Thursday, S&P said its figure is likely conservative, based on data from about 15,000 analysts covering 9,000 companies. The report found that only about one-third of the total cost will be absorbed by companies, while two-thirds will ultimately fall on consumers through higher prices and reduced output.S&P analysts said tariffs and trade barriers effectively act as taxes on global supply chains, diverting resources toward governments, logistics costs, and infrastructure investments. “Collectively, these forces represent a transfer of wealth from corporate profits to workers, suppliers, governments, and infrastructure investors,” the report said.Since April, the White House has introduced 10% tariffs on all U.S. imports and added targeted duties on items such as autos, timber, and kitchen cabinets. Officials argue the measures will shift the cost burden to foreign exporters, but S&P’s analysis suggests consumers are likely to face the largest impact.Lead author Daniel Sandberg wrote that with real output declining, “consumers are paying more for less,” indicating that the consumer share of tariff costs may be even higher than current estimates. ---S&P’s trillion-dollar tariff estimate underscores the inflationary risk of U.S. trade policy and potential margin pressure on manufacturers. The findings suggest tariffs could weigh on global demand and complicate central-bank easing paths. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reports that the US military have struck another drug boat in the Caribbean:U.S. military carries out new strike in Caribbean against suspected drug vessel and there are survivors, source familiar with the matter tells Reuters This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Edward Scicluna, Malta's cenral bank head:ECB mustn’t rush further interest-rate cutsthe effects of higher Trump trade tariffs on prices are not clear yet“It’s not so straightforward whether higher trade tariffs will be disinflationary or inflationary,” “The jury is still out and we shouldn’t jump to conclusions as this is crucial.”Bloomberg carry the report (gated) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaking at a 'town hall' event.Too soon to know the effect of tariffs on inflationImpact of tariffs taking longer to be felt than had guessedExpect services inflation to trend down, possible that goods inflation could spill overJob market is slowing downIts challenging to read signals without core government data because of the shut downMost folks say they are still concerned about inflationFed prioritizing labor market over inflation control could lead to bad outcomes for workersPrivate credit bears watching; cautious about if it’s suitable for a 401kLeaders on both sides of the aisle believe in an independent FedPleased to see Supreme Court in May said Fed was a unique institutionUS economy is far and away the strongest economy in the worldImmigration is a tool for economic growth, should we choose to use itHousing affordability crisis can’t be solved by interest rate cuts; need more housing supplyMore risk of labor market negative surprise than an uptick in inflationWe are likely betting the economy is slowing more than it really isTake concerns about soy beans very seriously, but not something the Fed can do something aboutThe longer the government shut down lasts, the less confident we are that we are reading the economy correctly This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The recent uptick in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) above the Federal Funds rate has drawn attention as a sign of tightening liquidity in short-term U.S. funding markets. Normally, SOFR trades below Fed Funds because Treasury-backed borrowing is considered safer than unsecured interbank lending. Its inversion suggests banks are showing a stronger preference for immediate liquidity and high-quality collateral. -I've seen some alarm over this, and I don't think that is entirely misplaced. But, for now, I'll keep it on an even keel here. Dance close to the door though, OK?-Analysts stress this development does not signal a crisis, but points to reduced reserve elasticity within the financial system. Several indicators reinforce this interpretation:Reverse repo balances have fallen sharply, implying the surplus of cash in money markets has largely dissipated.Usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has risen, indicating that banks are quietly tapping the Fed’s liquidity window.With SOFR now above the policy rate, the cost of secured overnight funding has exceeded the Fed’s theoretical ceiling, reflecting a strain in market plumbing rather than outright stress.The move suggests an uneven distribution of reserves or a temporary shortage of collateral where it is most needed. Historically, similar divergences have preceded episodes of funding volatility but not always systemic risk.If sustained, a higher SOFR effectively tightens financial conditions, adding a mild deflationary impulse even without policy changes. Analysts say this dynamic could eventually influence the timing of the Fed’s next easing cycle, if liquidity pressures persist.---The shift adds to signs that U.S. liquidity conditions are tightening, with money-market rates diverging from the Fed’s policy corridor. Traders are watching for potential repo volatility or earlier-than-expected policy recalibration if the pressures persist.---I should add in, if you need ... SOFR is the benchmark interest rate for overnight loans that are secured by U.S. Treasury securities. In simple terms, it reflects how much it costs banks and big financial institutions to borrow cash overnight using Treasuries as collateral.SOFR replaced LIBOR (the London Interbank Offered Rate) as the main reference rate in the U.S. after LIBOR was phased out due to manipulation scandals. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China has accused the United States of deliberately fuelling global panic over its new rare earth export controls, rejecting U.S. calls to roll them back and denouncing comments from senior American officials as “grossly distorted.”Commerce Ministry spokesperson He Yongqian said Washington had exaggerated Beijing’s policy shift, insisting the measures were consistent with international norms and that compliant, civilian-use exports would still be approved.The new licensing regime, taking effect November 8, has unsettled global supply chains amid confusion over its scope. The People’s Daily published a seven-point rebuttal, accusing the U.S. of hypocrisy for maintaining its own control list of more than 3,000 items.The dispute escalated after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer accused Beijing of a “global supply-chain power grab.” China condemned Bessent’s personal attack on trade envoy Li Chenggang and urged Washington to “correct its wrongdoings.”While both sides have avoided new tariffs, the renewed war of words threatens to strain Trump–Xi relations ahead of their planned meeting in South Korea later this month. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

HSBC expects the current bullish momentum in gold to extend through 2026, underpinned by a mix of strong central bank buying, persistent U.S. fiscal worries, and expectations of further monetary easing.In a commodities outlook, the bank said gold remains well supported by robust investor sentiment and ongoing diversification by official institutions. continue to see rallies being sustained into 2026, driven by structural and macro factors that favour gold ownershipThe report highlighted that U.S. fiscal deficit concerns are a significant driver of gold demand, with investors increasingly viewing bullion as a hedge against debt sustainability risks and potential U.S. dollar weakness.HSBC also sees central bank gold purchases staying elevated, noting that demand from emerging-market central banks remains a key tailwind. The bank said institutional accumulation is unlikely to slow given ongoing geopolitical fragmentation and the desire to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.However, the bank cautioned that gold’s upward trajectory could face headwinds if the Federal Reserve delivers fewer rate cuts than markets currently expect. A slower easing cycle could strengthen the dollar and lift yields, tempering gold’s near-term upside before broader bullish forces reassert.Overall, HSBC maintains a positive medium-term outlook, projecting that dips will be well supported by strategic demand and macro uncertainty. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump spoke about price reductions on weight loss drugs:Trump says he thinks the price of fat loss drugs will fallFollowing up now, noting the share price falls for the two pharma giants. Trump specifically mentioned Ozempic, calling it "the fat loss drug" ... on prices for the drug he said "They’ll be much lower. They’ll be much lower", adding prices would "come down pretty fast"no specific timeline was providedNovo Nordisk makes Ozempic and WegovyEli Lilly, Mounjaro and Zepbound This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As European traders head for the exits, the S&P index has given up their gains. The Dow industrial average is also negative on the day. The NASDAQ index is holding onto modest gains but well off the highs.Looking at the S&P index, it traded as high as 38 point to a point before rotating back to the downside. The low price has seen the index declined by -8.72 points. The current price is down -4.77 points or -0.07% at 6666.56.The Dow industrial average was also higher by as much as 169.03 points. It is currently down -36 points or -0.09% after reaching a low at -75.30 points.The NASDAQ index is still holding onto small gains of 15 points or 0.06%. However it was as high as 216.79 point at session highs.In the European markets today, major indices closed higher:German DAX, +0.38%France's CAC, +1.38%UK's FTSE 100, +0.12%Spain's Ibex, +0.48% Italy's FTSE MIB +1.12%.In the US debt market, yields are lower:2 year yield 3.476%, -3.2 basis points5 year yield 3.602%, -2.8 basis points. 10 year yield 4.018%, -2.7 basis points30 year yield 4.615%, -2.3 basis points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +3715KGasoline -267K vs -75K expectedDistillates -4259K vs -294K expectedAPI inventory data from late yesterday: Crude +7.36 millionGasoline +2.99 million Distillates -4.79 million I take this as modestly bullish for crude on that big distillate draw. Yes, the crude number was negative but not as bad as API. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD began the U.S. session near the day’s lows and the 100-day moving average at 1.16455. When that level was tested, buyers leaned against it, halting the decline and flipping the short-term bias higher. Momentum picked up, lifting the pair to a new session high above the Asian-Pacific peak at 1.16746, though it fell short of the October 7 swing high at 1.16804. The 38.2% retracement of the September decline sits just above at 1.1685, reinforcing that area as a key topside barrier.Since then, the pair has eased back, currently trading near 1.1667. So what’s next? With the pair breaking and holding above the 100-day MA, the near-term bias tilts in favor of buyers. Still, a sustained move above 1.1680-1.1685 is needed to confirm a shift in broader sentiment and open the door to further upside momentum.On the downside, watch 1.16596 — the upper edge of the prior swing area — as immediate support. If that level holds on a dip, it would signal buyer confidence and could lead to another push toward 1.1685 and beyond. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Carney was at the White House last Tuesday and there was hope for something a bit more concrete by now.Canada is mainly aiming to lower steel and aluminum tariffs but there is also the talk of a revival of the Keystone XL pipeline, something that's in the news again today.The owner of the pipeline project is now South Bow, after a spinoff from TC Energy. It could stand to benefit from a revival.I spoke with Reuters about the US-Canada trade negotiations yesterday:"The market for CAD is pricing in some kind of deal but the contours of that are impossible to estimate," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at investingLive. "There's a lot riding on this ... this is the dress rehearsal for the big negotiation."That's referring to USMCA, which will be reopened in July.Also of note from Carney:We are restarting a broad engagement with ChinaExpects to meet the senior Chinese leadership in the coming month This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.