The combination of a sharper than usual seasonal drop in asking prices and employers holding firm on both hiring and firing adds to the case for a cautious Bank of England, which has kept rates on hold since December 2025. Weak housing momentum alongside soft hiring intentions points to a consumer backdrop that remains fragile, a dynamic likely to weigh on sterling and keep gilt yields anchored to dovish rate expectations into official labour data due Tuesday. The London-versus-north divergence in house prices also reinforces a narrative of an economy healing unevenly rather than broadly, which could complicate the BoE's read on underlying demand. Markets are likely to treat both data points as reinforcing rather than new information, given confidence readings have sat near post-pandemic lows for some time.--- Britain's housing market and labour market are both losing momentum at once, sharpening the case for a cautious Bank of England.Summary:Rightmove reported UK asking prices fell 2.0% in the four weeks to August 8, sharper than the 10-year average August fall of 1.3% and the steepest since 2018, with prices down 1.0% year on year.London posted the sharpest annual price fall at 3.1%, while prices in the north of England continued to rise, and Rightmove cut its 2026 price growth forecast to flat or as much as a 2% fall.Buyer demand rose 5% since Prime Minister Andy Burnham took office on July 20 but remained 10% below year-ago levels, while the average two-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.09% from 4.92%.A separate CIPD survey found UK employer confidence near its weakest levels outside the pandemic, with the net employment balance holding at plus 9 and private-sector hiring intentions at plus 11, both close to record lows outside the pandemic.Only 57% of private-sector employers plan to recruit in the next three months, a joint post-pandemic low, though redundancy levels have not risen, prompting the CIPD to describe a "low-hire, low-fire" labour market.Median expected pay rises held at 3% for more than two years, with 31% of employers reporting hard-to-fill vacancies and 14% expecting significant recruitment difficulties over the next six months. Britain's economic soft patch deepened on Monday, with fresh data pointing to a housing market under pressure and a labour market still reluctant to hire. According to Rightmove, average asking prices for newly listed homes fell 2.0% in the four weeks to August 8, a sharper drop than the 10-year average August fall of 1.3% and the steepest such decline since 2018. On an annual basis, asking prices were down 1.0%, the biggest yearly fall since December 2023, with London leading the decline at 3.1% even as prices in the north of England continued to rise. A summer slowdown and a 12-year high in the number of homes for sale weighed on the market, though buyer demand did pick up 5% following Prime Minister Andy Burnham's arrival in office on July 20, even as it remained 10% below year-ago levels. The average two-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 5.09% from 4.92% a month earlier, prompting Rightmove to cut its 2026 price growth forecast to a range of flat to a 2% decline, citing geopolitical uncertainty, higher mortgage rates and October's budget as key risks.Separately, a survey from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development showed British employers remain stuck in a low-hire, low-fire pattern, with confidence near its weakest levels outside the pandemic. The CIPD's net employment balance held at plus 9, close to its lowest level outside the pandemic, while private-sector hiring intentions stayed at plus 11, matching a record low outside the pandemic era. Just 57% of private-sector employers plan to recruit in the next three months, also a joint post-pandemic low, though redundancy levels have not risen, prompting the CIPD to describe the labour market as low-hire, low-fire rather than one shedding jobs outright. Median expected pay rises held at 3% for more than two years, while 31% of employers reported hard-to-fill vacancies and 14% expect significant recruitment difficulties over the next six months. The CIPD called for lower hiring costs and greater support for youth employment.Together, the two surveys land a day ahead of official labour market data and add to the picture the Bank of England is weighing as it considers its next move on interest rates, which have been on hold since December 2025.--Still a month out from the next meeting for the Bank of England: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Any move against Chinese refiners or banks handling Iranian crude carries a direct oil market consequence: curbing discounted Iranian barrels would tighten supply and could push prices higher just as the market absorbs an already elevated geopolitical risk premium from the naval blockade. Traders are likely to treat this as a slow-burn story rather than an immediate catalyst, since Washington has signalled intent without confirming specifics. The China angle is the one to watch most closely, given any escalation against Chinese banks risks a tit-for-tat response from Beijing on critical minerals exports, a flashpoint that could ripple well beyond energy markets.---Earlier:Oil- weekend recap & what's ahead: Iran vows to keep Hormuz shut, Trump tells Americans to accept high gas prices Washington has plenty of Iran pressure points left to pull, but few that squeeze Tehran without also risking a costly fight with Beijing.Summary:Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has promised unprecedented economic pressure on Iran, expected as soon as next week, though Washington has not detailed specifics.China buys the vast majority of Iran's oil exports, much of it through independent teapot refiners with limited exposure to the US financial system.Treasury has warned two major Chinese banks over handling Iranian funds but has stopped short of formal sanctions, wary of Beijing retaliation ahead of a planned Trump-Xi meeting.Other options include tighter curbs on UAE-based exchange houses used to repatriate Iranian oil proceeds, broader secondary sanctions modelled on the North Korea approach, and confiscating rather than freezing Iranian overseas assets.A land blockade would need cooperation from neighbours including Iraq, Turkey and Pakistan, while secondary tariffs face legal hurdles after a Supreme Court ruling.Analysts describe much of the existing sanctions regime as a "whack-a-mole" exercise that has yet to shift Iran's strategic calculus. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Washington is preparing to hit Iran with economic measures unlike anything seen before, with new steps expected as soon as next week. The administration has not detailed what it has in mind, though the range of remaining pressure points is narrower than it first appears, given Iran is already under a naval blockade and thousands of existing sanctions.China's central role in Iran's oil trade is the most obvious target. Beijing buys the large majority of Iran's crude, much of it processed by independent "teapot" refiners with little exposure to the US financial system, making them harder to deter than larger buyers. Treasury has already sanctioned some smaller Chinese refiners and firms, and according to Bloomberg Economics, has warned two larger Chinese banks they could face secondary sanctions if Iranian funds move through their systems, though it has stopped short of naming them, wary of provoking Beijing ahead of a planned meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping.Other levers under discussion include tighter action against exchange houses, mostly based in the United Arab Emirates, that help Iran convert oil proceeds, often received in yuan, into usable currency. Washington could also broaden secondary sanctions to any entity doing business with Iran, an approach modelled on the campaign against North Korea, or move from freezing to confiscating Iranian state assets already within US jurisdiction.A land blockade, requiring cooperation from neighbours including Iraq, Turkey and Pakistan, and secondary tariffs on countries trading with Iran, both face significant obstacles: the former is logistically difficult given mountainous terrain along parts of Iran's borders, while the latter lost its legal underpinning after a Supreme Court ruling.Of the options on the table, targeting Chinese teapot refiners and exchange houses looks the most readily implementable in the near term, since both build directly on measures Treasury has already taken. Broader moves against major Chinese banks, a land blockade or new tariff powers face steeper diplomatic, legal or logistical hurdles, and analysts caution that without a shift in White House priorities toward Iran over China, none of the options are likely to change Tehran's calculus.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NZ electronic card retail sales +1.3% m/mprior -1.4%+3.4% y/yprior +1.3%Electronic cards data covers about 68% percent of core retail sales in NZ and is the main measure of monthly retail activity.Also, Food Price Index inflation +0.1% m/mprior +0.6%Earlier:NZ services sector holds above breakeven for second month as PMI eases to 50.6 (prior 50.9) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The modest cooling in New Zealand's Performance of Services Index (this is NZ's Services PMI) offers limited fresh signal for the RBNZ's rate path, with the reading still consistent with tepid but positive momentum rather than a sharp turn. NZD traders are likely to look past the headline given the marginal drop from June, focusing instead on the weak employment and supplier deliveries components as evidence the recovery remains narrowly based. A soft services print, layered on already cautious consumer sentiment, keeps alive the case for further RBNZ easing later in the cycle, though a second straight month above breakeven should cap the more bearish kiwi dollar narratives for now.--- New Zealand's services recovery is holding together, but with hiring still stalled it remains fragile rather than robust.Summary:BusinessNZ's Performance of Services Index (PSI) came in at 50.6 in July, down from 50.9 in June but up from 48.1 in May, marking a second straight month of expansion.BusinessNZ CEO Katherine Rich said the sector's improvement is encouraging but noted employment, at 48.5, remains the soft spot as firms stay cautious about new hires.Respondent comments cited cost of living pressures, fuel and petrol prices, rising interest rates and election uncertainty, with 64% of comments negative, a notably softer tone than in manufacturing.New Orders/Business was the strongest sub-index at 52.6, followed by Stocks/Inventories at 51.6 and Activity/Sales at 50.5.Employment and Supplier Deliveries were the weakest sub-indices, both at 48.5, underscoring how narrowly based the recovery remains.BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel noted the past two months have produced the best PSI readings in roughly three years, with Activity/Sales rising above 50 for the first time in six months. New Zealand's services sector held onto its expansion in July, with the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) coming in at 50.6, according to BusinessNZ. That was down slightly from June's 50.9 reading but well above May's 48.1, marking the second consecutive month the index has held above the 50.0 breakeven mark that separates expansion from contraction.BusinessNZ chief executive Katherine Rich said it was encouraging to see the PSI hold above breakeven for a second month running, even as the pace of growth eased from June. She flagged employment, at 48.5, as the sector's persistent soft spot, sitting alongside Supplier Deliveries as the weakest of the five sub-indices and a sign that firms remain reluctant to commit to new hires. Rich said the recovery is likely to stay modest until consumer confidence firms up further, rather than turning into the stronger bounce already seen in manufacturing.Respondent commentary painted a similarly cautious picture, with cost of living pressures, fuel and petrol prices, and rising interest rates cited most often as concerns, alongside uncertainty tied to the upcoming election. Sentiment was notably weaker than in the manufacturing survey, with 64% of comments negative.Among the five sub-indices, New Orders/Business was the standout performer at 52.6, followed by Stocks/Inventories at 51.6 and Activity/Sales at 50.5. Employment and Supplier Deliveries lagged at 48.5 apiece, underlining how narrowly based the improvement remains.BNZ senior economist Doug Steel struck a more upbeat tone, noting that the past two months have delivered the best PSI readings in roughly three years and that the Activity/Sales sub-index climbed back above 50 for the first time in six months. Taken together, the data suggest New Zealand's services recovery is real but fragile, with weak hiring intentions likely to keep the RBNZ's broader growth outlook cautious heading into the back half of the year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It's a subdued beginning to the new week for futures. Slightly up for goldNQOil is a touch firmer:Oil- weekend recap & what's ahead: Iran vows to keep Hormuz shut, Trump tells Americans to accept high gas prices This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The unexpected delay of China’s monthly data drop shifts market risk into the Asian afternoon session, while setting up European markets for a volatile opening. Investors face potential positioning shifts across industrial commodities like copper and crude oil, which remain sensitive to Chinese demand signals. A confirmation of economic cooling could pressure regional equity indexes and the yuan, while reinforcing expectations for swift central bank intervention. China’s unusual scheduling shift for key July economic metrics puts traders on high alert for soft growth data and potential central bank easing.Summary:The National Bureau of Statistics revised its release schedule for July economic figures to 3:00 p.m. Beijing time on Monday.The upcoming data package includes key monthly indicators for industrial production, retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and real estate prices.Industrial output is expected to show deceleration from June, while overall investment remains constrained by ongoing property sector softness.Prior figures showed producer price inflation dropping to a three-month low of 3.5% in July alongside easing consumer price pressures.Markets expect retail sales to show relative resilience, bolstered by consumer trade-in initiatives launched by Beijing.Weak performance across key indicators could compel the People’s Bank of China to deploy reserve requirement cuts or interest rate reductions.China has altered the release schedule for its July economic indicators and associated news briefing on Monday, introducing an unexpected twist for global financial markets as investors seek clarity on the country’s growth momentum entering the second half of the year.The National Bureau of Statistics adjusted the timing of its monthly data drop to 3:00 p.m. Beijing time, pushing the figures into the afternoon trading window in Asia while aligning with early morning activity in Europe and pre-market preparation in North America. The data package covers core measures of economic health, including industrial output, retail sales, fixed-asset capital allocation, and residential property prices.Expectations lean toward a softer set of figures following weakness in recent price metrics. Producer price inflation dropped to a three-month low of 3.5% in July, while consumer price metrics also pointed to muted domestic demand. Factory activity is projected to show a slowdown compared to June levels, and fixed-asset investment continues to contend with headwinds stemming from a multi-year downturn in real estate development. Conversely, retail performance may provide a modest buffer, supported by targeted government policies aimed at stimulating consumer goods trade-ins.The decision by Beijing authorities to shift the timing of the briefing, as reported by Bloomberg, highlights the significance of the upcoming metrics for policy sentiment. Financial institutions note that a confirmation of broader deceleration could prompt the People’s Bank of China to implement additional monetary easing, including cuts to benchmark interest rates or reductions in bank reserve requirements, to ensure full-year targets remain achievable.---Beijing Time is UTC/GMT+8. In August, the US is on Daylight Saving Time (EDT, which is UTC-4).3:00 p.m. Beijing Time = 07:00 GMT (8 hours behind Beijing) = 3:00 a.m. US Eastern Time (EDT) (12 hours behind Beijing).The traditional morning release slot (typically 10:00 a.m. Beijing time) corresponds to 02:00 GMT / 10:00 p.m. US Eastern Time (previous day). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The announcement itself carries limited direct market impact, but it reinforces a broader read that Washington is trimming its footprint and spending in secondary security theatres while its resources and political attention remain fixed on the Iran conflict. Any perception that US commitments on the Korean peninsula are softening could add a modest layer of regional risk premium for Korean won assets and defence related equities, though the scale of the drill reduction remains unspecified. The more direct market driver stays the Iran standoff itself, with Hormuz transit still halted and gasoline prices elevated; this move looks more like a fiscal and bandwidth story tied to that conflict than a standalone North Korea policy shift. Trump orders a sharp cut to US-South Korea drills over cost, a move that lines up with an administration stretched thin by its war with Iran.Summary:Trump said on social media he has instructed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to substantially reduce the scale of US-South Korea joint military exercises.He called the drills costly, largely funded by the US, and said they send an inappropriate signal given his relationship with North Korea's Kim Jong Un.Trump said it is too late to cancel the exercises outright, hence the reduction rather than cancellation.He separately said he asked South Korea's president to join US efforts to denuclearize Iran, and that the offer was declined.The move comes as Washington remains focused on its Iran conflict, with Hormuz tanker traffic still halted and gasoline prices a domestic political issue. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he has ordered a significant reduction in joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea, citing cost concerns and pointing to what he described as his good relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.In a post on social media, Trump said the US agreed long ago to participate in the drills, adding that they are expensive, largely funded by Washington, and send an inappropriate and hostile signal to a country he characterised as unthreatening and respectful during his time in office. He said it is now too late to cancel the exercises outright, so he has instructed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to substantially reduce their scale.Trump also disclosed that he had separately asked South Korea's president whether Seoul would join US efforts to denuclearize Iran, and said the response was a polite decline. He described the two matters as somewhat unrelated, though he raised them in the same post.The announcement lands as Washington remains consumed by its escalating conflict with Iran, where tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted for weeks and US officials have signalled more financial pressure on Tehran is coming. Scaling back a long running commitment on the Korean peninsula, on cost grounds, fits a pattern of an administration looking to trim exposure in secondary theatres as it commits resources and political capital to the Iran standoff. Whether the reduction in drills reflects a genuine shift in North Korea policy or simply a reallocation of military and fiscal bandwidth toward the Middle East is likely to be debated by regional security analysts in the coming days.The move is likely to draw scrutiny from South Korean officials and from members of Congress who have historically viewed the joint exercises as a deterrent against North Korean aggression. It also comes as Trump continues to face domestic pressure over the economic fallout from the Iran war, including elevated gasoline prices that have become a political liability heading into the November elections. Markets in Seoul and the broader region are likely to watch for any follow-up detail from the Pentagon on the scope and timing of the reduced drills.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Last week's in-line CPI print triggered a modest bond rally, with pricing for the Fed's September meeting easing slightly, according to Goldman Sachs. A cooler than expected PPI reading then helped push the S&P 500 to a record closing high last Thursday. Goldman flags that heavy Treasury issuance and record corporate debt supply tied to the AI infrastructure buildout remain structural, compounding forces behind rising term premium at the long end of the curve, a dynamic expected to persist regardless of near term data surprises. Softer employment data is viewed as largely irrelevant to the policy path, with inflation retaining primacy in the Fed's reaction function. The bank's preferred expression of these dynamics is a curve steepener, reflecting fair value at the front end against ongoing long end pressure, with the biggest payoff reserved for a recession scenario that is not currently the base case.--- Goldman Sachs says inflation still calls the shots for the Fed, even as cooler PPI data sends the S&P 500 to a record and structural Treasury supply keeps grinding long term yields higher.Summary:Goldman Sachs' Mike Mitchell said the week's CPI print was roughly in line, with core CPI up 21.5 basis points, though the read-through to core PCE looked softer (GS expect core PCE to continue to fall towards 2% next year).PPI data released since then came in cooler than expected, helping send the S&P 500 to a record closing high last Thursday.September Fed meeting pricing eased slightly to around nine basis points after the CPI data; retail sales data has also since been released. Goldman Sachs says market pricing for Fed Funds is still too high, GS is not as hawkish.Weaker recent payrolls data is not seen as a significant driver of Fed policy; Mitchell said demographic and immigration shifts mean little job growth is needed to hold the unemployment rate steady.Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance are cited as structural drivers of rising term premium, alongside AI-related corporate debt issuance Goldman estimates at $250 billion this year and up to $400 billion next year.The week's 10-year Treasury auction was the highest-yielding since 2007 but was well absorbed; the 30-year auction that followed also went smoothly. Mitchell's preferred trade is a yield curve steepener, with the biggest payoff in a recession scenario he does not view as imminent. Goldman Sachs treasuries and inflation trading head Mike Mitchell said the week's CPI print landed roughly in line with expectations, with core inflation up 21.5 basis points, though the read through to the Fed's preferred core PCE gauge looked somewhat softer given a heavier weighting toward services categories that came in soft. He said the print should give the Federal Reserve some comfort heading into its September meeting, speaking on Goldman Sachs' Markets podcast. PPI data released since then also came in cooler than expected, a reading that helped send the S&P 500 to a record closing high last Thursday.Bond markets rallied modestly on the CPI data, with pricing for the September meeting easing by a few basis points to around nine basis points. Mitchell said he does not see the week's weaker payrolls report, the first month of negative job growth in some time, as a significant driver of the September decision. He noted that demographic shifts and changes in immigration policy mean the labor market needs little job growth to hold the unemployment rate steady, which has barely moved over the past year, and that inflation, not employment, remains the Fed's central focus.On the fiscal side, Mitchell pointed to a persistently difficult US budget outlook, a dynamic he described as global rather than US specific, as a structural driver of rising term premium in the bond market. He cited investor discomfort after the Fed chair's comments following the July meeting suggested higher long term yields could substitute for further policy rate moves, a stance the back end of the curve did not welcome. The week's 10 year Treasury auction, the highest yielding since 2007, was nonetheless well absorbed, helped by the softer inflation data, and the subsequent 30 year auction saw a similarly smooth outcome as the cooler PPI reading reinforced the disinflation narrative. He added that heavy corporate debt issuance tied to AI infrastructure buildout, which Goldman estimates could reach $250 billion this year and as much as $400 billion next year, is compounding the same upward pressure on term premium as government supply.Mitchell argued current real yields, near 2.5 percent at the 10 year point and closer to 3 percent at 30 years, are historically elevated and offer value for long horizon investors, alongside a diversification benefit that would reassert itself in a recession or growth shock scenario. His preferred trade is a curve steepener, on the view that front end and belly yields already price likely Fed action while the long end faces ongoing structural headwinds from fiscal and corporate supply. With the CPI, PPI and retail sales releases now behind the market, Goldman is turning its attention to minutes from the Fed's July meeting for further clues on the tone of the September policy debate. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Crude held a firm bid into the weekend, with Brent on track for a 6.0% weekly gain and WTI up 5.4%, as traders priced in an extended disruption to Hormuz transit rather than any near term resolution. With essentially no crude tankers moving through the strait on Friday, against a pre-war daily average above 130 vessels, the market is treating the blockade as the operative price driver rather than headline risk alone. Escalating attacks on tankers, including the latest strikes on ADNOC vessels and a bulk carrier hit by an unidentified projectile, keep a war-risk premium embedded in freight and insurance costs. Trump's own rhetoric, both his acceptance of higher pump prices and his suggestion the US could eventually claim the strait, signals Washington sees no quick off-ramp, reinforcing the case for sustained upside risk into the new week. Iran hardens its Hormuz blockade rhetoric as Trump concedes Americans will keep paying more at the pump, with no talks in sight heading into the new week.--Updating weekend oil related news ahead of Globex open at 6pm US Eastern time Sunday. It looks like more of the same stalemate ahead this coming week. Bessent's comments last week on further economic measures to be taken against Iran have ignited analyst speculation, I'll have more to come on this separately. Summary:Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Saturday the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until Washington accepts defeat.Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran has not decided whether to resume US talks, and set conditions on the strait for shipping to resume.Trump told a Friday rally that Americans should accept "a tiny little bit more" for gasoline, and floated eventually declaring the strait US territory.US gasoline averaged $4.08/gallon Friday, up 29% year on year, per AAA; Brent and WTI both rose on the week (+6.0% and +5.4%).Only two vessels transited Hormuz Friday, none carrying crude; the UAE accused Iran of striking a third ADNOC tanker, and a bulk carrier was hit by an unidentified projectile.Iran's President Pezeshkian acknowledged US sanctions and a port blockade are driving domestic inflation; Houthi missiles killed four civilians in Yemen's Mocha port Friday. Iran on Saturday called on the United States to accept defeat in their ongoing conflict, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained halted and President Donald Trump told Americans to brace for continued high fuel prices as a consequence of the war.There was no sign over the weekend that the two sides were moving toward peace talks or an end to the fighting, which the US and Israel launched on February 28. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on Saturday that the strait, a chokepoint that handled roughly a fifth of the world's oil before the war, would be opened and closed only on Iran's terms, and that the blockade would continue until Washington accepted reality. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran had not decided whether to resume talks with the US, telling local media that Washington first needed to meet Tehran's conditions on the strait.Trump, speaking at a political rally in New York on Friday, urged Americans to accept "a tiny little bit more" for their gasoline as the price of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and suggested the US could eventually declare the strait US territory once the conflict is resolved. The average US price of a gallon of gasoline stood at about $4.08 on Friday, up 29 percent from a year earlier, according to the American Automobile Association, a trend that has fed inflation and become a political liability for Trump heading into November's congressional elections.Only two vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday and neither was carrying crude, according to ship tracking firm Kpler, a fraction of the more than 130 ships that used to cross daily before the war. The UAE accused Iran of striking a third ADNOC tanker in the strait on Friday, following two earlier incidents the previous evening, while a bulk carrier was also reported struck by an unidentified projectile.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged on state television that a US blockade of Iranian ports and sanctions on oil exports had driven up domestic inflation, an unusually candid admission of the war's economic toll on Iran. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen fired ballistic missiles at the Red Sea port of Mocha on Friday, killing four civilians, raising fresh concern about a wider regional conflict as markets head into the new trading week with the standoff still unresolved.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Its just before:5am Tokyo4am ingapore/Hong Kong6am Australia/8am New ZealandEarly indications:EUR/USD 1.1569USD/JPY 159.31GBP/USD 1.3538USD/CHF 0.8117USD/CAD 1.3876AUD/USD 0.7090NZD/USD 0.5892I'll be back with weekend news soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin stabilizes near $63,000, but reclaiming $64,000 is the real testBitcoin is stabilizing near $63,100 after buyers defended the lower part of its recent range. That is constructive, but it is not yet a confirmed recovery. BTC must first overcome resistance near $63,175-$63,270, while reclaiming and holding $64,000-$64,095 remains the more important test.Key takeaways for Bitcoin traders and investorsCurrent position: BTC is holding above the previous month’s lower value boundary near $62,380.Immediate resistance: Buyers need to clear $63,130-$63,175, followed by $63,247-$63,270.Main recovery test: A sustained reclaim of $64,000-$64,095 would carry much more weight than a temporary bounce near $63,000.Major support: The broader $62,380-$62,535 region remains the most important defended zone.Bullish confirmation: Repeated closes, consolidation or a successful retest above $64,095 would show that Bitcoin is beginning to establish higher accepted value.Data note: The latest daily, four-hour and one-hour candles were incomplete when this analysis was prepared. Exchange-specific Bitcoin prices may also differ slightly.I'm also closely monitoring the digital asset space after Bitcoin lost the critical $64,000 support level, putting immediate pressure on lower order-flow shelves as bulls fight to defend structural trendlines. Regulatory headwinds also resurfaced as the SEC abruptly canceled its scheduled crypto rules meeting, injecting fresh institutional hesitation into active trading books. Meanwhile, broader risk sentiment showed divergence across asset classes as US stocks finished the week mixed while the Russell 2000 notched a new record high, underscoring rotational breadth away from mega-cap tech into small-cap momentum. Macro headwinds and geopolitical posturing remain front and center following headline chatter that Trump suggested declaring the Strait of Hormuz US territory, all while monetary policy uncertainty lingers after Fed's Barkin highlighted the difficulty in gauging restrictive policy limits amidst baseline model variances.Why Bitcoin’s stabilization is constructive but incompleteBitcoin recently fell to approximately $62,535, where the decline attracted meaningful buying. Price subsequently recovered toward $63,100, strengthening the case that buyers are willing to defend the lower part of the previous month’s trading range.What stands out to me, however, is how little upward progress followed that buying.Several periods showed positive buying pressure, but BTC remained concentrated around $63,050 and repeatedly struggled to extend beyond $63,150-$63,175. In simple terms, buyers have shown that they can slow the decline, but they have not yet shown that they can move Bitcoin into a clearly higher trading range.This is the difference between stabilization and recovery:Stabilization means sellers are no longer pushing price lower with the same ease.Recovery means buyers are lifting price, holding above resistance and shifting the market’s most active trading area higher.Bitcoin has shown the first condition. The second still needs confirmation.Why $62,380 and $64,095 matterThe previous month’s value area provides a useful map of where most Bitcoin trading took place:Value Area Low near $62,380: The lower boundary of the previous month’s heavily traded range.Point of Control near $64,095: The price that attracted the most trading activity during the month.Value Area High near $65,050: The upper boundary of the previous month’s accepted range.BTC is currently about $720 above the monthly Value Area Low, but almost $1,000 below the monthly Point of Control.Holding above $62,380 tells us that demand inside the previous month’s range has not completely failed. Remaining below $64,095 tells us that buyers have not regained control of the broader value structure.This is also why $64,095 may be more important than $64,000 itself. The round number attracts attention, but $64,095 represents the previous month’s busiest price area. A brief move above $64,000 could still become another failed breakout. Holding above $64,095 would provide stronger evidence that the market is accepting higher prices again.As discussed in our previous analysis, Bitcoin’s loss of the key $64,000 level created technical repair work for buyers. That repair is not complete simply because BTC has bounced from $62,535.Bitcoin support and resistance levels to watchWhat would strengthen the bullish Bitcoin scenario?Swing traders should have 3 key price levels: The Value Area Low (VAL), Point of Control (POC) and Value Area High (VAH) of the previous month. Together, these levels map the previous month’s main area of accepted trading: the VAL marks its lower boundary, the VAH its upper boundary, and the POC the price where the most volume traded. Traders watch them because holding inside the area suggests continued acceptance, while a sustained break outside it may signal that the market is searching for a new value zone.The first constructive step would be sustained trade above $63,175. Buyers would then need to clear and hold above $63,247-$63,270.That would improve the probability of a move toward $63,350 and, eventually, the much larger $64,000-$64,095 test.A more convincing recovery would include:Bitcoin reclaiming $64,000.Price moving above the monthly point of control near $64,095.A pullback successfully defending the reclaimed area.Trading activity beginning to concentrate above $64,095 rather than immediately slipping back below it.If that sequence develops, approximately $65,050 becomes the next major value-area objective.What this means: Acceptance is more than touching a level. It means price spends time above it, survives pullbacks and begins treating the higher area as support.What would weaken the stabilization attempt?Failure to hold $62,920-$62,800 would weaken the current short-term base and increase the probability of another test of $62,535.The more serious bearish development would be sustained trade below $62,380. That would place BTC outside the previous month’s accepted value area and suggest that the market may need to search for demand at lower prices.Traders should still distinguish between a brief move below $62,380 and genuine acceptance beneath it. Crypto markets can produce fast stop-runs through visible support before reversing. Repeated closes or continued trading below the level would carry more bearish significance than a momentary sweep.What Bitcoin traders may consider watchingDifferent traders may use these levels in different ways, at their own discretion:Short-term breakout confirmation: Watch whether BTC can break above $63,175 and successfully retest it, with $63,247-$63,270 providing the next validation area.Support-zone reaction: If BTC returns to $62,380-$62,535, watch whether buyers defend it again or whether selling begins to hold below the zone.Broader recovery confirmation: Treat $64,000-$64,095 as the decisive recovery test instead of assuming that every bounce from $63,000 marks a durable bottom.Because Bitcoin trades continuously, weekend conditions can sometimes involve thinner liquidity and less reliable breakouts. Confirmation through time, repeated closes or a successful retest may therefore be more useful than reacting to the first price spike.What should Bitcoin traders watch next?Bitcoin has defended the lower part of the previous month’s value area, but the rebound still needs to prove itself. The immediate challenge is to move beyond $63,175 and $63,270.The much larger test remains $64,000-$64,095. A successful reclaim would indicate that Bitcoin is returning toward the center of the previous month’s accepted value rather than merely bouncing from support.Until that happens, Bitcoin may be stabilizing, but it is not yet showing a fully confirmed bullish recovery.This analysis presents conditional market scenarios and opinions (not promises) at investingLive.com, not a guarantee of future performance. Traders should consider volatility, position size and their own risk limits before acting. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Earnings beats are not enough: What experienced investors watch insteadA stock can beat Wall Street’s earnings estimates and still fall sharply. Another company can miss an estimate and rally. This is not necessarily irrational. Stock prices respond to how results compare with the expectations already reflected in the price, not simply whether the headline says “beat” or “miss.”Key takeaways for stock investorsAn earnings beat is not automatically bullish. A small beat may have been widely expected and already priced into the stock.Published consensus is not the market’s full expectation. Investors may also be considering unofficial “whisper numbers,” valuation, positioning, guidance and industry trends.The size of the reaction needs context. Compare the actual stock move with the move options traders were expecting before earnings.The initial gap is only the first verdict. What happens after the regular market opens can be even more informative.Company performance and stock performance are related, but they are not the same thing.Why can a stock fall after beating earnings?Imagine analysts expect a company to report:Earnings per share, or EPS: $2.00Revenue: $10 billionThe company reports:EPS: $2.05Revenue: $10.1 billionThe headline reads:“Company beats earnings estimates.”But the stock falls 8%.A beginner may understandably ask: “Why is the stock falling if the company beat expectations?”The simplest answer is that the company may have beaten the published estimates without beating the market’s real expectations.Perhaps investors were hoping for EPS of $2.15. Maybe the stock had already rallied strongly before the report. Guidance for the next quarter might have disappointed. Margins may have weakened, or an important business segment may have slowed.The market evaluates the entire package, not merely the first two numbers in the headline.This leads to one of the most important earnings lessons for new investors:The earnings report tells you what the company said. The stock reaction tells you what investors thought about it.Real-world example: Netflix’s huge earnings beat did not protect the stockNetflix offers a useful example of why investors should examine the quality of an earnings beat, not just its size.In the first quarter of 2026, Netflix reported diluted earnings of $1.23 per share, compared with its previous forecast of $0.76. That looked like a massive earnings beat of nearly 62%. Revenue reached $12.25 billion, slightly above the Wall Street consensus of approximately $12.18 billion. Yet Netflix shares fell roughly 9%-10% after the report. Netflix’s quarterly earnings materials provide the official reporting context.The headline versus the economic realityThe headline: Netflix delivered much higher EPS than expected, while revenue also exceeded expectations.The important catch: Reported profit included a $2.8 billion termination fee connected to the abandoned Warner Bros. transaction. Netflix recorded this payment under interest and other income.Why it matters: The fee was real money, but it was not recurring income generated by subscriptions, advertising or another part of Netflix’s normal operations. It inflated that quarter’s net income and EPS, but it could not be repeated in the following quarter.This does not mean Netflix’s underlying business performed badly. Revenue grew strongly, operating income increased and its operating margin improved. The more precise lesson is that the headline EPS figure made the quarter look more exceptional than the company’s recurring operating performance alone would suggest.Why did Netflix stock fall?Several factors appear to have mattered more than the spectacular-looking EPS beat:The earnings quality was mixed: Investors generally place a higher value on repeatable profits from normal business operations than on a one-time payment.Forward guidance disappointed: Netflix forecast second-quarter EPS and revenue below Wall Street’s expectations. The market therefore looked past the backward-looking beat and focused on weaker-than-hoped future results.Expectations were already high: The stock had rallied strongly before earnings, leaving less room for an ordinary positive surprise.Leadership uncertainty added pressure: Netflix also announced that co-founder Reed Hastings would leave the board, creating another issue for investors to consider. Barron’s reported that the otherwise solid results were overshadowed by disappointing guidance and Hastings’ departure.As the chart illustrates, Netflix fell approximately 10% immediately after the report and eventually declined around 40% from its post-earnings peak to a later low.However, investors should not attribute that entire longer-term decline to one earnings report. Additional guidance disappointments, changing growth expectations, valuation concerns and later company developments also influenced the stock over the following months.The lesson for beginner investorsNever make an investment decision solely because an earnings platform displays a large green “surprise” percentage.Instead, ask:Where did the reported profit come from?Was it generated by the core business or by a one-time event?What did management forecast for the next quarter?Did the stock hold its initial earnings reaction?The Netflix example shows why a massive earnings beat can be less bullish than it first appears. The size of the beat matters, but the quality, sustainability and forward outlook behind it matter much more.Learn stock earnings: What does “priced in” mean for a stock?A stock price reflects what investors believe may happen in the future. It does not wait for the company to publish official confirmation.Suppose investors become increasingly optimistic in the weeks before earnings. The stock rises from $80 to $100 because traders expect excellent results.The company then reports excellent results, but the shares fall to $92.The company may still be performing well. The problem is that “excellent” was already expected. The stock had risen in advance as investors paid for that expected success.For the stock to continue climbing, the company may have needed to deliver something even better than excellent.The reverse can happen when expectations are low. A struggling company might report mediocre results, but the stock rallies because investors feared a much worse outcome.A helpful way to think about earnings is:Stock prices respond to reality compared with expectations, not simply good compared with bad.Why a small earnings beat may not be a major surpriseMany beginners interpret an earnings beat as proof that the company unexpectedly performed better than almost everyone thought. In practice, the situation is more complicated.Consensus estimates change throughout the quarter. Analysts revise their forecasts as new information becomes available. Management guidance helps shape the expected range. Industry data, competitor results and economic conditions can also influence investor expectations before the report arrives.As a result, beating the final published consensus by a small amount is relatively common. It may still be positive, but it is not necessarily a major surprise.For example, beating EPS by two cents tells us very little if investors were privately hoping for a much larger beat.This does not mean every earnings beat is meaningless. A company can deliver a genuinely powerful surprise, especially when revenue, margins, guidance and important operating measures all exceed expectations. The lesson is simply that the word “beat” does not provide enough information on its own.In stock earnings, headline expectations and market expectations are differentPublished analyst consensus is visible. The market’s complete expectation is not.Before earnings, investors may also consider:Unofficial whisper numbersRecent management commentaryChanges in analyst forecastsThe stock’s move before the reportExpectations for future quartersIndustry and competitor trendsProfit marginsOptions pricingInvestor positioning and sentimentWhether the stock’s valuation already assumes rapid growthA high-valuation stock may need near-perfect results to keep rising. A low-valuation stock surrounded by pessimism may only need to show that conditions are not getting worse.That is why:A beat against consensus does not necessarily mean a beat against the market’s real expectations.What should investors examine beyond EPS and revenue?EPS and revenue are useful starting points, but they do not explain the entire business.Experienced market participants often pay attention to:Guidance: What does management expect for the next quarter or year?Margins: Is the company keeping more or less profit from each dollar of sales?Forward growth: Is growth accelerating, remaining stable or slowing?Important business segments: Which products, regions or customer groups are driving the result?Cash flow: Is the business producing real cash?Management commentary: Did executives introduce a new risk or reduce an old uncertainty?Industry conditions: Is the company gaining or losing ground relative to competitors?The stock reaction: Did investors reward or reject the complete report?The most important figures vary by company. Subscribers may matter more for a streaming business. Cloud growth may matter more for a large technology company. Same-store sales can be critical for a retailer.Investors should identify the measures that explain how the business actually makes money.How the stock reaction adds informationConsider two simplified earnings reactions:The reaction does not tell us the exact reason automatically. Investors still need to read the report and listen to management.However, the reaction helps reveal whether the new information was better or worse than what the market had already prepared for.A sharp decline after respectable numbers can be a warning that expectations were too high. A strong rally after imperfect numbers can signal that pessimism had become excessive.How does the expected move improve the analysis?Before earnings, options prices can provide an approximate indication of how large a move traders are preparing for. This is commonly called the expected move.The expected move does not predict whether a stock will rise or fall. It gives investors a rough idea of the amount of volatility already anticipated.Consider two companies:Company AExpected move: approximately 8%Actual reaction: +3%The response is positive, but relatively contained. The company did not produce a move as large as the options market had prepared for.Company BExpected move: approximately 4%Actual reaction: +10%This is a much more forceful upside repricing. The move greatly exceeded what traders had been expecting.The same principle applies to negative reactions:A 5% decline when a 10% move was expected may be relatively contained.A 10% decline when only a 4% move was expected may represent a much stronger negative surprise.This gives beginners a better question to ask:Was the earnings move unusually large compared with what the market was already prepared for?The expected move is useful context, not a perfect forecast. Options pricing can be influenced by demand, liquidity and broader market risk. Investors should use it as a comparison tool rather than an exact boundary the stock must respect.Why the first earnings reaction may not be the final verdictMany companies report after the regular market closes. Their shares can move dramatically in after-hours trading, when liquidity is usually thinner and fewer participants are active.The stock might initially jump 12%, open the next day only 6% higher and finish nearly unchanged.Alternatively, it might fall 10% after the report, recover rapidly after the opening bell and finish well above its overnight low.These changes are valuable information.The initial earnings gap shows the market’s first reaction. What happens afterward shows whether investors accept the new price.In this context, acceptance means that the stock holds much of the move instead of immediately returning to its previous range.What does strong earnings follow-through look like?After a positive earnings reaction, investors can watch whether:The stock holds most of its initial gainEarly pullbacks attract buyersThe shares remain strong after the opening volatility settlesThe stock outperforms its sector and the broader marketThe price closes near the upper part of its daily rangeStrength continues into the following sessionAfter a negative reaction, investors can ask whether:Selling continues after the opening bellAttempts to recover repeatedly failThe stock remains weaker than its competitorsThe shares close near the lower part of the daily rangeSellers remain active during the following sessionA positive gap that quickly disappears is different from a positive gap that buyers defend throughout the day. Likewise, a large decline that recovers can tell a different story from one that continues to deepen.Why investors should not blindly follow the price reactionPrice provides information, but it is not infallible.A stock’s earnings reaction can be affected by:A major move in the overall marketAn economic report released at the same timeNews from a competitorInterest-rate changesGeopolitical developmentsShort coveringForced sellingThin after-hours liquidityFor example, a technology company might report strong results but fall because the entire Nasdaq is selling off after an inflation surprise. Another stock might rally because heavily positioned short sellers are rushing to exit, even though the business outlook remains uncertain.The reaction should therefore be investigated, not worshipped.The best analysis combines the company’s results with the price response and the broader market context.A simple three-question earnings checklistBeginners do not need a complex model to improve how they read earnings. Start with three questions.1. What did the company report?Look at:EPSRevenueGuidanceMarginsImportant products or business segmentsManagement’s explanation of what changedDo not stop after the first headline.2. How did the stock react relative to expectations?Ask:Did the stock rise or fall?How large was the move?Was it larger or smaller than the expected move?Had the stock already rallied or fallen significantly before earnings?Were investors positioned for a very strong or very weak report?Did the stock perform better or worse than its sector?3. Did the reaction hold?Watch:The opening tradeThe first few hoursThe closing priceThe following session when appropriateA strong report combined with an unusually strong and sustained reaction generally carries more information than a small headline beat followed by immediate selling.“They beat earnings. Why is the stock falling?”When this happens, one or more of the following explanations may apply:The earnings beat was too smallGuidance disappointedProfit margins weakenedA major business segment missed expectationsInvestors expected a larger beatThe stock had rallied too far before earningsThe valuation required near-perfect resultsManagement introduced a new concernThe positive news was already priced inThe broader market or sector was fallingThe correct explanation may require reading the full release, examining the conference call and studying the price action.But the decline itself is still telling investors something important: the complete package did not satisfy the expectations embedded in the stock price.Three earnings lessons every new investor should remember1. A beat is not automatically bullishStocks respond to expectations. EPS and revenue beating consensus do not guarantee that the full report was better than investors anticipated.2. Judge the reaction in contextCompare the stock’s actual move with the expected move, its pre-earnings rally or decline, its valuation and the performance of its sector.3. Watch what happens after the gapA reaction that holds can strengthen the market’s verdict. A move that quickly reverses may tell a very different story.Frequently asked questions about earnings reactionsShould I buy a stock because it beat earnings?An earnings beat alone is not a complete investment case. Investors should examine guidance, margins, business trends, valuation and the sustainability of the stock’s reaction before drawing a conclusion.Is a falling stock proof that the earnings report was bad?Not necessarily. The company may have reported good absolute results but failed to exceed very high expectations. The decline may also reflect broader market conditions. Investors need to separate company-specific information from outside influences.Is an after-hours move reliable?It is useful, but it can change. After-hours trading often has lower liquidity. The regular session brings more investors, more volume and sometimes a different verdict.What if a stock rises after missing estimates?The market may have feared a worse result. Guidance could have improved, margins may have surprised positively or management may have reduced a major uncertainty. A miss can still be better than what was already priced in.The earnings habit that can make beginners better investorsThe next time a headline says a company “beat expectations,” resist the temptation to conclude that the stock must rise.Read the headline numbers, but then keep going.Ask whether the results genuinely exceeded the expectations already reflected in the share price. Compare the actual reaction with the expected move. Finally, watch whether buyers or sellers continue to defend that reaction once the regular market opens.Learning to ask those questions is one of the simplest ways a beginner can start examining earnings like a more experienced market participant. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Why Retail Traders Are Rethinking Traditional Prop FirmsUS stocks end the week mixed; Russell 2000 closes at a recordTrump: Pretty soon will be declaring Strait of Hormuz territory of the USThe weekly Baker Hughes rig count rises by 5 in the current weekFed's Goolsbee: US GDP and labor markets are basically stableEuropean shares close mostly lower as yields jump; DAX bucks the trendUS Business inventories for June 0.0% vs 0.1% estimateUS August prelim UMich consumer sentiment 51.0 vs 54.5 expectedCanada Manufacturing Sales for June +0.1% vs -0.1% estimateUS July retail sales -0.6% vs +0.1% expectedKickstart the NA session for Augste 14: USD falls across the board as BOJ rate hike talk lifts the yeninvestingLive European session wrap: Dollar falls, gold rebounds amid mixed marketsThree reasons why BOJ rate hikes will not save the yenAs Yogi Berra once said, "It ain't over until it is over".  Welll it is over.  The week is over. For the day, the U.S. stocks finished mostly lower on Friday, but the declines were modest as the major indices wrapped up a mixed week. The S&P 500 reached a new record high during the week before backing off into the Friday close, while small caps were the standout performer. The Russell 2000 rose 0.51% on the day and closed at a new record high.Dow industrial average: 53,737.38, -108.01 points or -0.20%S&P 500: 7,785.75, -13.23 points or -0.17%Nasdaq composite: 26,729.16, -73.86 points or -0.28%Russell 2000: 3,068.42, +15.59 points or +0.51%Nasdaq 100: 30,046.14, -38.36 points or -0.13%For the week, the Dow was the only major index to finish lower, while the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 led the gains:Dow: -0.56%S&P 500: +0.36%Nasdaq: +0.14%Russell 2000: +1.11%Nasdaq 100: +1.09%The modest weakness in stocks came despite a softer U.S. dollar. The greenback moved lower against all of the major currencies, with the largest declines coming against the NZD and CAD. The weaker dollar followed a disappointing U.S. retail sales report that added another question mark over the strength of the U.S. consumer.The percentage changes versus the dollar showed:EUR: +0.36%JPY: +0.11%GBP: +0.33%CHF: +0.09%CAD: +0.42%AUD: +0.38%NZD: +0.65%The NZD was the strongest of the major currencies, while the JPY and CHF posted the smallest gains versus the dollar.The economic catalyst for much of the dollar weakness came from July retail sales. Headline sales fell 0.6%, well below expectations for a 0.1% increase and following a 0.2% gain in June. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.3%, while the important retail control group declined 0.4%. It was the first monthly decline in headline retail sales in nine months.There were some pockets of strength underneath the headline. Building-material sales rose 0.3%, while food services and drinking places increased 0.5%. However, motor vehicles and parts fell 1.8%, electronics sales declined 0.5%, and non-store retailers dropped 2.2%.One month does not make a trend, but the report puts a dent in the idea that the U.S. consumer will continue to spend at a solid pace as long as the labor market remains relatively stable.Adding to the softer consumer picture was the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for August. Sentiment fell to 51.0 from 55.2 in July and was well below the 54.5 expected. Current conditions fell to 51.8 versus 55.0 expected, while expectations dropped to 50.6 versus 55.2 expected. Inflation expectations were less encouraging. One-year expectations edged higher to 4.3% from 4.2%, while five-year expectations remained elevated at 3.3%. That leaves the Fed looking at a somewhat uncomfortable combination of weaker consumer readings but inflation expectations that remain above desired levels.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee played down the significance of one weak retail sales report, saying U.S. GDP and the labor market remain basically stable. He said continued weakness in spending could become concerning, but emphasized the need for more data. Goolsbee also said he was encouraged by the recent CPI reports.Goolsbee raised another interesting issue for markets, pointing to weakness in recent productivity readings. If that weakness persists, it could complicate the inflation outlook and potentially challenge some of the optimism surrounding the productivity benefits expected from AI investment.While the dollar weakened on the softer economic data, U.S. yields finished higher from the levels shown late in the session. Using the 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year maturities as proxies for the curve:2-year: 4.171%, +3.1 basis points5-year: 4.362%, +4.9 basis points10-year: 4.692%, +5.1 basis points30-year: 5.260%, +4.9 basis pointsThe larger increases farther out the curve resulted in a modest steepening from the 2-year through the longer maturities. The pressure on longer-term yields remains an important issue for equities, particularly with valuations elevated and markets continuing to weigh inflation, energy prices and the enormous capital spending associated with the AI buildout.The rise in yields was not confined to the U.S. European benchmark yields also jumped sharply Friday, and that helped put some pressure on equities across the region.European shares closed mostly lower, although Germany's DAX bucked the trend:German DAX: +0.51% at 26,432.87France CAC 40: -0.16% at 8,636.81UK FTSE 100: -0.21% at 10,750.12Spain Ibex: -0.06% at 20,156.61Italy FTSE MIB: -0.20% at 53,583.60The moves in European 10-year yields were considerably larger:Germany: 3.205%, +7.1 basis pointsFrance: 4.048%, +9.9 basis pointsUK: 5.042%, +9.0 basis pointsSpain: 3.652%, +8.4 basis pointsItaly: 3.990%, +9.3 basis pointsIn other markets, crude oil was a notable winner, while gold and silver also moved higher. Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction:Crude oil: $82.38, +$1.13 or +1.39%Gold: $4,376.16, +$26.14 or +0.60%Silver: $64.71, +$0.24 or +0.37%Bitcoin: $62,855, -$563 or -0.89%So the week ends with a number of competing signals for traders to digest. The S&P 500 reached another record during the week but could not hold onto the momentum Friday. The Russell 2000, meanwhile, ended at a record, suggesting the equity rally continues to broaden beyond the mega-cap names.At the same time, retail sales and consumer sentiment raised questions about the strength of the U.S. consumer, the dollar weakened, oil moved higher, and global bond yields remain a potential headwind.That combination sets up another interesting week ahead as traders continue to balance growth, inflation and Fed expectations against equity markets that remain near record levels.Thank you for your support. Hope you have a good and safe weekend.  This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

US stocks finished mostly lower on Friday, taking some of the shine off a week that saw both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 trade at record levels. The exception today was the small-cap Russell 2000, which bucked the broader weakness and closed at a new record high.The S&P 500 reached a fresh all-time high during the week and closed at a record on Thursday, but buyers could not keep the momentum going into the weekend. Friday's softer retail sales and consumer sentiment data contributed to a more cautious tone, while higher oil prices and geopolitical concerns also weighed on risk appetite.At the closing bell, the major indices finished:Dow industrial average: 53,737.38, -108.01 points or -0.20%S&P 500: 7,785.75, -13.23 points or -0.17%Nasdaq Composite: 26,729.16, -73.86 points or -0.28%Russell 2000: 3,068.42, +0.51%, closing at a new record highNasdaq 100: 30,046.14, -38.36 points or -0.13%Despite Friday's modest pullback, most of the major indices still managed to finish higher for the week:Dow: -0.56%S&P 500: +0.36%Nasdaq Composite: +0.14%Russell 2000: +1.11%Nasdaq 100: +1.09%The weekly numbers show an interesting shift beneath the surface. The S&P and Nasdaq posted relatively modest gains, while the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 both advanced more than 1%. For small caps in particular, the new record close is a notable sign of broader participation beyond the largest companies.It was also a big week for a number of individual stocks, particularly names tied to AI infrastructure, data centers, memory and storage. That theme helped provide some of the week's biggest winners.Some of the week's biggest gainers included:Nebius: +47.73%SanDisk: +35.40%Super Micro Computer: +27.98%Western Digital: +17.15%Micron: +10.85%Datadog: +9.20%Dell Technologies: +8.16%Vertiv: +7.88%GE Vernova: +7.36%Chevron: +7.21%Moderna: +7.00%Lam Research: +6.77%Defiance Drone and Modern Warfare ETF: +6.41%SLB: +6.41%AMD: +6.38%Intuit: +6.28%General Mills: +6.26%Nebius led the way after its earnings report highlighted another surge in AI-cloud demand, while SanDisk's Investor Day and aggressive longer-term financial targets helped send that stock sharply higher. Super Micro was another major beneficiary of enthusiasm surrounding AI infrastructure.The week was certainly not positive for everyone. While AI infrastructure, memory and small caps produced some impressive gains, there were also some sizable individual-stock declines.Some of the week's biggest losers included:Tapestry: -20.56%On Holding: -14.17%First Solar: -9.79%AppLovin: -9.04%Tencent ADR: -8.77%Broadcom: -8.14%Cisco: -8.03%Alaska Air: -8.01%Macy's: -7.83%Lululemon Athletica: -7.02%American Airlines: -6.96%Strategy: -6.95%Tapestry was the biggest casualty, falling more than 20% for the week. The Coach parent came under heavy pressure following its earnings report and a muted outlook for annual revenue growth.Cisco also had a rough week despite reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings and revenue. Investors focused instead on margin pressure, sending the shares sharply lower and illustrating once again that simply beating expectations isn't always enough when expectations are already elevated.The losers list also shows that weakness wasn't isolated to one area of the market. Retail and consumer names including Tapestry, On Holding, Macy's and Lululemon were among the laggards, while technology names such as Broadcom, Cisco and AppLovin also suffered sizable declines.That dispersion is another important takeaway from the week. The major averages remained near record territory, but underneath the surface there were some very large moves in both directions. Stock selection—and reactions to earnings and guidance—continued to matter.So although Friday ended with red on most of the major-index screens, the weekly picture was considerably better. The S&P 500 reached another record, the Russell 2000 finished the week at a record, and some of the strongest individual-stock gains were once again concentrated around AI infrastructure, semiconductors, memory and data-center spending.The Dow was the outlier among the major averages for the week, declining 0.56%, while the broader market continues to show enough underlying strength to keep the major indices near—or at—record territory heading into next week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump is speaking and says:Pretty soon he'll be declaring the Strait of Hormuz territory of the US.Warned that Iranian aggression would be met with response hundred times harder and emphasized that the US only permits vessels to enter the Strait at its discretion. Calls the blockade is unstoppableUS to pay a tiny little price for gasoline.Says he will hit Iran hard economically. Does not care if hitting the Iran economy before midterms This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD moved sharply higher through the European and early North American sessions, but the rally ran into a familiar technical roadblock.For the second Friday in a row, the pair broke above its 100-day moving average, only to struggle to sustain momentum. This time, buyers pushed the price into the next key target area near 1.1586, where the top of a swing area converges with the 50% retracement. The high reached 1.1585, virtually testing that level to the pip, before buyers turned to sellers.The subsequent reversal has taken the EURUSD back below the 100-day moving average, once again putting the upside move in jeopardy.That price action has an eerily similar feel to last Friday. The EURUSD also moved above the 100-day moving average then, but the breakout failed. That failure helped trigger the decline that ultimately took the pair to 1.1511 yesterday. Importantly, that low remained above the key swing support surrounding the 1.1500 level.As trading winds down for the week, the 100-day moving average remains the key barometer. A close near that level effectively passes the decision to next week, with traders likely to use it as the dividing line between a more bullish and bearish technical bias.On the topside, a move back above the 100-day MA would put 1.1586 back in focus. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward the 200-day moving average at 1.1627.Conversely, staying below the 100-day MA would keep the buyers on the defensive. The next downside targets would be the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.1539, followed by 1.1524. A break below those levels would shift the focus back toward the key 1.1498–1.1506 swing area.For now, the 100-day moving average is the battleground. Above it, buyers get another opportunity. Below it, the risk increases that Friday's breakout becomes another failed attempt. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count showed:Oil up 1 to 455Natural gas up 4 to 128Total rigs +5 to 593.  Versus a year ago, the Oil is up from 412, Natural gas is up from 122 and total is up from 539. Crude oil is trading at $82.19, up $0.94 of the day. THe high reached $82.99. The low was at $80.71.  This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsby is on the wires sayingUS GDP and labor market are basically stableThe weak retail sales represents one month of dataContinued spending weakness could be worryingsupported the July rate decisionNotes is that the past two productivity data releases were very poor.  If it persists, it could change the AI narrative Encouraged by CPI reports and need more dataGoolsbee tends to go with the flow. He can be more hawkish or more dovish.   His comments on productivity are a concern for for inflation and have implications for US stocks.  At the same time, wonder if the productivity measures are being influenced by the upfront costs with the  majority of the gains to be determined. But that is a $64,000 question for everyone. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

As London/European traders head for the exits, the major European stock indices are closing mostly lower. Germany's DAX was the notable exception, gaining 0.51%, while France, the UK, Spain and Italy all finished modestly in the red.The moves come as European benchmark yields rose sharply across the board, adding some pressure to equities.European closing levels:German DAX: +0.51% at 26,432.87France CAC 40: -0.16% at 8,636.81UK FTSE 100: -0.21% at 10,750.12Spain Ibex: -0.06% at 20,156.61Italy FTSE MIB: -0.20% at 53,583.60Europeans yields move higherIn the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields moved sharply higher:Germany: 3.205%, +7.1 basis pointsFrance: 4.048%, +9.9 basis pointsUK: 5.042%, +9.0 basis pointsSpain: 3.652%, +8.4 basis pointsItaly: 3.990%, +9.3 basis pointsUS stocks are lowerAs European traders leave for the day, the major U.S. indices are mostly lower after earlier gains faded. The S&P and Nasdaq are pulling back after the S&P reached another record level this week.Dow Industrial Average: -0.27% at 53,700.36S&P 500: -0.20% at 7,783.06Nasdaq Composite: -0.44% at 26,684.76Russell 2000: +0.24% at 3,060.04Nasdaq 100: -0.40% at 29,963.16US yields are higher after trading lower earlier.U.S. Treasury yields are also moving higher, with the largest increases at the long end of the curve. The move is steepening the yield curve despite the softer U.S. dollar. The rise in longer-term yields has been a notable feature of today's trading.2-year: 4.150%, +1.0 basis point5-year: 4.346%, +3.3 basis points10-year: 4.686%, +4.5 basis points30-year: 5.269%, +5.8 basis pointsThe USD is moving lower despite the yields moving higher. The U.S. dollar is lower against all of the major currencies, with the biggest decline coming against the New Zealand dollar. The NZD is up 0.75% versus the greenback, while the AUD and GBP are both up about 0.51%. The euro is up 0.46%.The dollar is also lower against the yen, with USDJPY down 0.19%. USDCAD is down 0.42%, while USDCHF is lower by 0.29%. The broad dollar weakness comes despite the move higher in Treasury yields.Crude oil is higher in a fairly narrow range. Crude oil is trading modestly higher, up $0.43 at $81.68. The price has seen a wide intraday range, reaching a high of $82.99 and a low of $80.71 before settling near the middle of that range as European traders exit.US economic data was softer than expectations U.S. economic data came in softer than expected, adding to concerns about the strength of the consumer and helping pressure the U.S. dollar.July retail sales fell 0.6%, well below the +0.1% expected. Ex-autos sales declined 0.3% versus +0.2% expected, while the important control group fell 0.4% versus a +0.3% forecast. Motor vehicles and non-store retailers were among the biggest drags. University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 51.0 in the preliminary August reading, below the 54.5 expected and down from 55.2 in July. Both current conditions and expectations weakened. Inflation expectations remained elevated, with the 1-year measure rising to 4.3% from 4.2%, while the 5-year measure held at 3.3%. The combination of weak retail sales and softer consumer sentiment raises some questions about consumer momentum heading deeper into the third quarter and is the catalyst for the stocks despite the chance of a fed tightening down to 30% for September. . This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major US stock indices are trading lower on the day, taking some of the shine off what had been a technically positive week.S&P index: down -0.23% on the day, but still holding onto a 0.30% gain for the week. NASDAQ index: down -0.52% today and now -0.09% for the week. For the S&P, the index stretched to a new record high this week, but buyers have been unable to generate additional upside momentum in trading today.The NASDAQ also reached an important technical milestone this week, extending above a key swing area that tops out at 26,788.62. However, that breakout has also failed to attract sustained follow-through buying, with the index moving back to the downside today.Those failures to extend higher put more focus on the technical levels heading into the remainder of today's session and into next week.In the video above, I take a closer look at the technical picture for both the S&P and NASDAQ. Where is the key resistance? What are the next downside targets? And perhaps most importantly, where are the risk-defining levels that will tell traders whether buyers can regain control or whether sellers are starting to make a stronger play? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.