Most Read: Bank of England (BoE) Preview: A Hawkish Cut in a Stagnating Economy? Implications for the GBP & FTSE 100EUR/USD has had an interesting day as a stronger US Dollar has pushed the pair down for a retest of support at the 1.1700 handle. However, bulls remain interested and this is evidenced by the bounce back toward the 1.1750 handle as the day wore on.The rest of this week still brings US CPI and an ECB meeting into the picture. This begs the question, where will EUR/USD be on the last day of 2025? Let us take a look at all the factors that could play a role and shape price action over the coming days.ECB Meeting Preview The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow. Markets have already priced in a stable deposit rate of 2.0%, and nearly all major institutions predict no change. While the decision itself seems predetermined, the meeting is expected to be tense due to significant disagreements within the Governing Council regarding the future path of inflation and interest rates.The central conflict lies between "dovish" members, who want to cut rates sooner, and "hawkish" members, who advocate for patience. New macroeconomic projections are fueling this debate. Inflation is expected to fall below the 2% target in 2026 and 2027 (around 1.7%), which supports the argument for cutting rates now. However, inflation is projected to rise back above the target in 2028, largely due to delayed carbon pricing regulations.The "hawks" argue that the Eurozone economy is resilient with growth expected to exceed 1% in 2025 and that the bank should not react to temporary dips in inflation when long-term risks remain. If ECB President Christine Lagarde adopts a "hawkish" tone during the press conference, emphasizing this resilience and a commitment to keeping rates restrictive, it could boost the value of the Euro, potentially pushing the EUR/USD exchange rate toward 1.1900.For a full ECB Preview, read ECB: Rates on hold, debate heats upUS CPI Release The BLS office cannot publish monthly inflation figures for October because the recent government shutdown stopped them from collecting the necessary price data.Instead, they will only release the yearly inflation rate for November, which I expect to rise to 3.2%, up from 3% in September. This increase is largely caused by higher taxes on imported goods and rising insurance premiums.Despite this rise, inflation isn't expected to climb much further because energy is getting cheaper, rent hikes are slowing, and pay raises are becoming smaller. By the second half of 2026, the inflation rate should fall back down to around 2.5%.In the short-term though, a spike in inflation could add some strength to the US Dollar.and thus weigh on EUR/USD zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis on EUR/USD Let us start with the technical picture on the four-hour chartEUR/USD has found significant support at the 1.1700 handle which was the swing high on December 4.A retest earlier in the day and aggressive bounce highlights this area as crucial to immediate bullish continuation.The period-14 RSI also bounced back above the 50 level, a sign of bullish momentum.The four-hour chart below also sees price trading within an ascending channel of sorts. Some may see the channel as a bear flag as well which would hint at a break lower.However, the overarching macro picture hints at bullish continuation which makes an upside break of the channel seem more likely at this stage.EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, December 17, 2025 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.com Support1.17001.1657 (100-day MA)1.1572Resistance1.18001.1919 (YTD Highs)1.2000 (psychological level)Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The toppy price action following the post-FOMC rallies is finally taking its toll, hurting risk sentiment quite harshly.Even without the context of a potential AI bubble, the real catalyst for the current drop appears to be a lack of confidence for the upcoming year.The Nasdaq is leading all major US Indexes on the way down, dragging the S&P 500 and Dow Jones with it.Between double tops, profit-taking after a fantastic year, and increasingly blurry fundamentals, the year-end outlook is dimming. The "Santa Rally" has yet to show up. zoom_out_map US Indexes Daily Chart Outlook – December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView The macro backdrop isn't helping: Fed Chair candidates are signaling bias rather than confidence, employment is showing cracks (though far from breaking), and inflation remains uncomfortably high. The overarching theme is no longer investor confidence, but caution.We will know more about the state of inflation tomorrow morning at 8:30 A.M. ET. I cannot emphasize enough how important this inflation report will be.Overall, Equity valuations are extreme, and the Market seems overly optimistic but AI is a real revolution in terms of profit margin generation for big firms.But some more technical factors, highlighted by a brilliant Bank of America Survey points out to Fund Managers not having much cash left in the bank.So when investors are "tits up" long, it's difficult to see who will print new highs. zoom_out_map Cash Levels by Fund Managers – Bank of America Managers Survey from December 16. Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500. Discover More:Metals explode: Silver (XAG/USD) hits record $66 as Platinum (XPT/USD) breaks 2011 highsWTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?BoJ preview: Interest rate hike baked in, what’s next for the JPY (further appreciation)?Tech Stocks and Producer Manufacturing are dragging Stocks lower zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:56 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 17, 2025 Dow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is hurting less than its peers despite the correction.Keep a very close eye on the Tuesday lows (47,943) and the overall 48,000 close for the rest of the year.Breaking below could trigger further downsideRebounding here points to the further respecting the Downwards channel from the correctionBreaking back above 48,460 (November highs) would be necessary for Bulls to retake control of the actionDow Jones technical levels of interest (unchanged from yesterday)Resistance LevelsAll-time High resistance between 48,400 to 48,88648,300 mini-resistance (channel top)November Highs 48,459 – top of retracement channel, acting as resistance50,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target (50,159)Support LevelsNFP Day lows 47,493Short-term support 47,800Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200August highs and November Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Tech stocks are hurting quite harshly, leading to the Nasdaq giving up its entire recovery from yesterday and reaching bi-weekly lows.The 25,000 level which was acting as pivotal support is may now act as resistance as sentiment sours.The daily candle is not looking good but there is some small dip-buying to keep track of.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPivot 25,000 to 25,25025,274 daily highsResistance 25,500 +/- 75 ptsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support LevelsSession lows 24,77724,500 Channel lows and Main support October and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P officially broke its 6,800 to 6,900 consolidation which had been holding the Index for a while.Some small buying is occurring at the support but from how things look, there will need to be quite a bullish candle to come back into the range for Bulls to take back control of the action.It is now bearish on the short-term.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,800 Psychological Pivot (6,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896Resistance 6,850 to 6,880 (testing)ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support LevelsMini-Support 6,720 to 6,750 (current test)Session lows 6,750Support 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key elements BoJ hike is fully priced, normalization to continue: Markets assign a ~94% probability to a 25bp BoJ hike to 0.75%, backed by firm wage growth, improving consumer confidence, and strong Tankan sentiment—pointing to further gradual tightening into 2026.Policy divergence favours JPY structurally: A December hike would underscore the BoJ as the lone major central bank tightening while the Fed eases, reinforcing medium-term appreciation bias for the yen.USD/JPY near-term bias turns bearish: Technicals signal fading upside momentum; below 156.10, risks skew toward a pullback toward 154.40 and lower, with rallies vulnerable unless resistance is decisively cleared. The short-term overnight interest rate swap market in Japan has already priced in a high chance of 94% chance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike for the second time this year (within its current gradual normalization monetary policy stance) by 25 basis points this Friday, 19 December to bring the overnight policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years.A move on Friday would cement the BOJ’s status as the only major central bank raising rates this year. It would also mark the first instance since the BOJ adopted its two-day meeting format in 1998 that it and the Federal Reserve move policy rates in opposite directions within the same month.Rising wages, consumer confidence, and Tankan business sentiment zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Key Japan economic data that BoJ watches as of 15 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Japan overnight indexed swap rates as of 16 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) On top of BoJ Governor Ueda’s recent hawkish remarks on the justification to maintain the BoJ’s stance of gradual interest rate rises, several key economic data points other than the core-core CPI trend (excluding fresh food and energy) that the BoJ monitors have flashed out “all clear” signs to enact another rate hike after an 11-month pause since January’s hike.The latest Q4 Tankan business sentiment survey for large manufacturing companies operating in Japan has risen to almost a 3-year high at 15.0. The mood of Japanese consumers has also improved since April 2025, when consumer sentiment rose to a 19-month high of 37.50 in November 2025 (see Fig. 1).In addition, the latest BoJ’s report on wages published on Monday, 15 December 2025, has indicated that a firm wage growth momentum is likely to continue into the new fiscal year of 2026 at the same average growth rate of 5.25% in fiscal year 2025 as secured by Rengo, the largest trade union confederation in Japan.Hence, the BoJ is likely to continue its gradual interest rate hike cycle into 2026, as priced in by the interest rate swap market. The 1-year overnight-indexed swap rate has increased to 0.84% as of 16 December 2025 (see Fig. 2).Let’s now uncover the potential short-term directional movement of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) of USD/JPY – Bearish below 156.10 zoom_out_map Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 17 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 4: USD/JPY medium-term & major trends as of 17 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The USD/JPY has continued to oscillate within a minor descending channel that has been in place since reaching a 10-month high of 157.90 on 20 November 2025.Bearish bias below 156.10 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 154.40 near-term support resumes the minor bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 153.70 and 152.95 (see Fig. 3).Key elements The daily MACD trend indicator of the USD/JPY has staged a bearish breakdown below a key ascending support on 4 December 2025 and is trending downwards steadily towards its centre line (see Fig. 4).These observations from the daily MACD trend indicator suggest the multi-month up move of the USD/JPY from April 2025 low to November 2025 high is at a rising risk of a trend change towards a bearish bias (see Fig. 4).The hourly RSI on USD/JPY is rapidly approaching overbought territory (above 70), signalling that the rebound seen during the Asia session on Wednesday, 17 December 2025, is likely to lose bullish momentum in the near term (see Fig. 3).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above 156.10 invalidates the bearish bias on the USD/JPY to see a further potential squeeze up to retest the next intermediate resistances at 156.60 and 157.00/157.15. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil prices have been tumbling without stopping in a stable but continuous downtrend.A positive development that encourages cuts by reducing inflation expectations for consumers, but with prices back to January 2021 levels, producers are pressured to decrease investment in technology and rig development.For example, US Shale is known to be profitable at around $70 per barrel.As pressure mounts, producers can be squeezed out of the Market, which can then result in a too-short supply in the future, potentially raising future prices in the energy commodity. zoom_out_map Falling Inventories and Falling Oil Prices – Source: LSEG, published by Ian Harnett Following a mid-October trough, better-looking Chinese demand led to a rebound in prices to $60 in mid-November; however, prices have since fallen rapidly.Current factors for the fall in Oil include:The current OPEC+ high supply is known to hurt demand, as intra-organizational dynamics point to some members wanting to restrain margins to capture market share.The Market could also be pricing a reopening of the Venezuelan Oil Market to OECD markets if pressure on Maduro from the Trump Administration increases.We are still far from this, but the rising tensions between Washington and Caracas are surely getting priced into the Market. In case you did not know, Venezuela sits on the largest proven Oil reserves in the world, even surpassing Saudi Arabia, the world's largest producer.Traders are also pricing a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to more supply, leading to the current substantial fall. zoom_out_map World's Proven Oil Reserves by Country – Source: GIS Caveat on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire acting as bearish force Throughout this conflict, there has been many mentions of Russian supply to the West being reduced, but to sponsor their war, Russians have found ways.Finding new buyers is one: by offering cheap oil and flooding the Markets, there is still large interest for Russian Oil – China and India, the two largest Oil consumers being the biggest buyers (without counting some EU countries still dependent on the imports)Shadow Fleets are also common, with Tankers from Turkey allowing to transport and sell sanctioned Oil to Western buyers under legal names – Discover the Sanctions ParadoxMy contrarian view is one of a Russia-Ukraine conflict ending which could actually be a bullish catalyst for Oil prices, as illegal, cheaper oil would be less available and a reopening of traditional Markets to Russia could add to the competitive bidding. That could result in a sell-the-rumour, buy-the-news reaction.But it's just a theory.In any case, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI Oil to spot if Oil trading at 2025 presents a technical opportunity or a trap. Discover:US Stocks struggle: Unemployment rate ticks up to 4.6% after NFP releaseBank of England (BoE) Preview: A Hawkish Cut in a Stagnating Economy? Implications for the GBP & FTSE 100NFP Market Reactions: Gold and metals rally; Stocks open timidlyUS Oil (WTI) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) Daily Chart, December 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView Oil has broken below its short-term Channel mentioned in our preceding Analysis, strongly reacting to the 50-Day Moving Average.The MA stands out as the key Technical Indicator for the Oil trend, providing very strong entry points throughout the descent.As a matter of fact, any long-term technical reversal would be valid only on a weekly close above the 50-Day MA.With no sign of divergence and a consistent fall, technicals are signalling that the downtrend is stable and is not showing signs of weakness.Nevertheless, some reversal signs could be emerging on shorter timeframes.Let's dive into it.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) 4H Chart, December 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView A reversal could be near, with the second wave of selling forming an exact measured move of the preceding selloff.Coming in precisely at the lows of the Daily Channel seen on the higher timeframe, elements are adding into a potential reversal.The price action is still mostly bearish, so to get confirmation of such a reversal, traders will need to see a bullish candle which closes at least above the preceding 4H candle ($55.65).Levels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance LevelsKey September Resistance $65 to $66May range Resistance $63 to $64$60.90 Past Week highs$58.265 short-timeframe pivot levelMay Range lows support $59.00 to $60.50 (Broken, now Major Pivot)Support Levels$55 to $56.50 2025 Support and Channel lows (testing)Session lows $55.002019 mini support $53 to $54Mid-2019 Main support $51 to $52.501H Chart zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) 1H Chart, December 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView The selloff is very strong and may not reverse suddenly.Keep an eye on whether the session closes below $55.00 which acts as the key level for further action.A weekly close would confirm a further breakdown.Failing to break the lows however may lead to some consolidation. As said on the 4H timeframe, any reversal would require an initial sign of reversal (strong bull candle).Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Bank of England’s (BoE) final Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2025, scheduled for December 18, arrives amid strong conviction from financial markets: a festive interest rate cut is imminent. After a recent pause, the BoE is widely expected to resume its easing cycle, a move necessitated by a stalling UK economy and confirmed disinflationary signals.However, the decision is far from unanimous, and the resulting vote split and crucially, the forward guidance that accompanies it and will determine the market reaction and the economic outlook for 2026. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) The Potential Decision: A Narrow Rate Cut to 3.75% The overwhelming expectation, priced in by over 90% of the market, is for the MPC to vote for a 25 basis point (bp) cut, lowering the Bank Rate from 4.00% to 3.75%. This would mark the central bank's fourth rate cut of the year.This move follows a decision to keep rates unchanged in November, when Governor Andrew Bailey said he needed more proof that inflation was truly slowing down before making any changes.Weak Growth: UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in October, missing forecasts and confirming the economy's anaemic performance since mid-year. Economic growth is expected to remain weak well into 2026.Soft Labour Market: Unemployment has crept up to 5%, hiring surveys remain weak, and wage growth, a key indicator for underlying inflation, is rapidly slowing toward more manageable levels. zoom_out_map Source: ING Think Cooling Inflation: Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fallen to 3.6%, generally tracking the BoE’s projections.Despite these strong reasons to cut rates, the decision will likely be very close, with a predicted 5-to-4 vote. Governor Bailey is expected to be the deciding vote, likely siding with the group that favors lower rates (the "dovish" camp). This sharp division among the voters highlights just how difficult the current economic situation is for the central bank to manage.Given the split and the challenges facing the BoE a ‘hawkish cut’ may be the compromise. The Bank will deliver the 25bps reduction to support growth but will utilize the meeting minutes and the Governor's press conference to issue cautious guidance.Message: "We are adjusting the level of restriction, not stimulating the economy."Guidance: They will likely signal that future cuts are not automatic and will depend on data, specifically services inflation. This is designed to prevent the market from pricing in an aggressive 50bps cut cycle that could devalue the Pound too rapidly.I could of course be wrong but this would seem like the most logical step for the BoE.Market Implications: Pricing the Pivot Market participants have aggressively positioned for this outcome, but the nuance of the decision will determine price action across asset classes.Sterling (GBP) OutlookThe Pound is trading in a precarious range, heavily influenced by the divergence between the UK’s stagnation and the US’s relative resilience.GBP/USD (Cable): Currently trading near 1.3360-1.3400. The pair has been supported recently by a broadly weaker US Dollar (following the Fed’s dovish signals).Reaction to Cut: A "dovish cut" (cut + signal of rapid future easing) could see GBP/USD break support at 1.3280. A "hawkish cut" (cut + caution) would likely see the pair test resistance at 1.3420-1.3500.Strategic View: The medium-term outlook for GBP is negative due to the weak growth fundamentals (GDP -0.1%) and the correlation to risk-off sentiment. If the UK enters a technical recession while the US achieves a soft landing, the yield differential will move against Sterling.GBP/USD Daily Chart, December 16, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) EUR/GBP: With the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to hold rates in December , a BoE cut widens the policy divergence in favor of the Euro. This could put upward pressure on EUR/GBP.Gilt Markets (Government Bonds)The Gilt market is poised for a "bull steepening" of the yield curve.Short End (2-Year): Yields are expected to fall as they track the reduction in the Bank Rate to 3.75%.Long End (10-Year): Goldman Sachs forecasts 10-year yields to fall to 4.25% by year-end and 4.00% by end-2026. However, concerns about the fiscal deficit (increased borrowing in the Reeves budget) provide a floor to how far long-term yields can fall.FTSE 100: The impact is mixed. While lower rates help, a stronger Pound (if the cut is hawkish) hurts the overseas earnings of the large-cap exporters. Conversely, if the Pound falls, the FTSE 100 typically outperforms.FTSE 100 Daily Chart, December 16, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Challenges and Risks for the Bank of England Moving Forward The Bank of England's Three Big Risks In 2026, the Bank of England faces a difficult situation where it must choose between three dangerous paths, often called a "trilemma."Risk 1: Causing a Recession If the bank is too cautious and cuts interest rates too slowly, the slight economic shrinkage we saw in October could turn into a serious recession. This would likely cause unemployment to shoot up past 5.5%, forcing the bank to make panic cuts later, which would make people lose trust in the economy.Risk 2: Letting Inflation Return On the other hand, if the bank cuts rates too quickly while the government’s new budget raises business costs, inflation could get stuck at a high level of 3% to 4%. This would make everything more expensive for longer and might force the bank to suddenly raise rates again—a chaotic cycle similar to the economic trouble of the 1970s.Risk 3: Corporate Bankruptcy Finally, there is a risk to businesses. Although banks are currently safe, many companies need to refinance their debts in 2026. If interest rates stay high, these companies might not be able to afford their loans and could go bankrupt. A wave of business failures would eventually hurt the banks that lent them money.Final Verdict Market participants should prepare for a rate cut that feels "hawkish" in its delivery. The BoE will cut, but they will promise nothing regarding the speed of future easing.This creates a complex environment for Sterling, which may struggle to find direction until the 2026 inflation data clarifies the path to the terminal rate. The era of 4% interest rates is ending; the era of managing the "stagflation exit" has begun.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which comes out on December 16, 2025, is the first full look at the US job market since September, and it will be a crucial factor in determining the Federal Reserve's (Fed) strategy for interest rates throughout 2026.This jobs data will either prove that the Fed was right to implement the controversial rate cuts of 75 basis points since September, or it will suggest that the central bank was too aggressive in cutting rates.The report is complicated because it includes both October and November job numbers and is slightly skewed by issues like the recent government shutdown and delayed resignations of federal workers.Most Read: Santa Claus Rally Strategy: How to Trade the S&P 500's Most Reliable Seasonal PatternFor this reason, experts suggest ignoring the main unemployment rate and focusing instead on the number of new jobs added in November and the changes in Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), which track how much wages are rising.Significant market swings are expected because market participants are betting on much deeper rate cuts in 2026 than the Fed has officially planned. This creates a unique situation where Gold could rise strongly regardless of the outcome, while the currently low US Dollar has a greater potential to suddenly jump in value. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Complex Expectations: Analyzing the Dual-Month Release and Distortion The upcoming NFP report will release two months of jobs data simultaneously, though the most important figure is for November. The jobs number for October is expected to be a loss of about 10,000 jobs, but this is largely ignored because it's due to a technical issue: many federal workers who resigned had their departure dates delayed, resulting in a temporary, one-time drop in the count.The crucial expectation for November NFP is a modest recovery, adding about 50,000 jobs, which is a major slowdown from the 119,000 jobs gained in September. This expected number is uncertain, with forecasts ranging widely, and the risk is tilted toward a lower number, especially after a separate report (the ADP) unexpectedly showed a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs.A key concern for the Fed is inflation, which they measure through Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), or wage growth. This is expected to rise by 0.3% from the previous month, translating to an annual growth of 3.7%. Since the main unemployment rate is unreliable right now, AHE is the clearest signal the Fed has to judge how tight the job market is and how high the risk of inflation is.Finally, the official Unemployment Rate for October will not be released at all because the government shutdown prevented the necessary data from being collected. The rate for November is expected to suddenly spike to around 4.5% to 4.7%.However, this sharp increase is not considered a true sign of economic weakness but rather a temporary glitch: federal employees who were temporarily sent home (furloughed) during the reference week of the government shutdown will be mistakenly counted as unemployed. Because of this issue, the market is expected to largely ignore the high unemployment rate and focus primarily on the raw payrolls number and the wage inflation figures.Policy Crossroads: The Federal Reserve’s 2026 Rate Path Divergence The market currently has a very different view from the Fed on interest rates for 2026, which is expected to create high market volatility. Traders are betting that the Fed will cut rates two more times by September 2026. However, the Fed's own latest forecast (Dot Plot) suggests they only expect one cut for the entire year of 2026.If the November jobs report is stronger than expected, the market will be forced to quickly reduce its bets on those extra rate cuts and move closer to the Fed's more cautious projection. This would strengthen the argument from some Fed members who believed the central bank was in a "comfortable position to wait" before cutting rates.This risk of the market having to "reprice" its expectations is why the NFP report is considered the single most important event for setting the tone of monetary policy in the first part of 2026.Potential implications for the US Dollar Index (DXY) & Gold The market's reaction to the NFP report will not be uniform, but rather dependent on the deviation from consensus forecasts. These are the potential reactions we could see depending on how the data comes out and is received. zoom_out_map Source: Table Created by Zain Vawda US Dollar (DXY) Strategy: Asymmetric Upside RiskThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently in a near-term downtrend and is technically oversold due to aggressive market pricing of future rate cuts. This technical positioning creates an asymmetric risk profile:Weak Data Scenario: A weak NFP print (e.g., net job losses) validates the dovish market stance. Downside momentum would accelerate, targeting the "measured move" objective near prior support at 97.60.Strong Data Scenario: A stronger-than-expected November payrolls report (e.g., above 75k) would trigger a rapid unwinding of dovish expectations. This necessitates a violent short-covering bounce for the USD, potentially driving DXY back toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 99.30.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, December 15, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Gold (XAU/USD) Strategy: The Dual Bullish CatalystGold exhibits the potential for a rally regardless of the NFP outcome due to the unique policy environment. A strong Dollar traditionally controls Gold prices, while a weaker Dollar pushes them up. However, the current political and policy uncertainty provides two avenues for gains:Dovish Catalyst (Weak NFP): Weak employment figures lead to lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, diminishing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.Policy Error Catalyst (Strong NFP): If the data is surprisingly strong, it suggests the Fed may have cut rates "too far too fast". This shift in narrative from a controlled slowdown to policy error ignites fears of future inflationary acceleration. Gold then trades as an inflation hedge and an asset favored when confidence in financial assets or prudent policymaking declines, which could boost prices toward October’s record high. This structural bid under Gold suggests continuation toward resistance zones (e.g., 4380)Gold Four-Hour Chart, December 15, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

In this short piece, we will dive into who will be the Federal Reserve Voters for 2026.It is extremely essential to keep an eye on what current and next-year voters are saying in their appearances, as their speeches and comments can trigger massive reactions in Markets and potentially open up trade opportunities.Naturally, traders should always keep an eye on the Fed Chair, who appears occasionally but also provides Market-moving testimonies twice a year, traditionally around the end of February and the end of June.There have been numerous examples of appearances from Fed Speakers which have changed the trajectory of markets and the pricing for the upcoming meeting.Some recent examples include Governor Waller through his pre-Jackson Hole mention of a dovish trajectory for the Fed towards the end of 2025, which preceded an even more dovish appearance from Chair Powell at the yearly Symposium.But even more pertinent is the recent speech from NY Fed President Williams, which helped to take the pricing of a 25 bps cut from 20% to 90%, leading to the actual cut from the past week.Permanent Voters zoom_out_map Permanent Fed Voters – December 15, 2025 In case you did not know, Board Members and the NY Fed President retain permanent voting seats for FOMC meetings.This was a crucial reason for President Trump to make sure that board members are tagging along with his dovish envies—especially with Chair Powell’s term ending in May 2026.Jerome Powell (Chair): The big question for 2026. Will he stay, or will Trump appoint a new Chair to aggressively slash rates?NY Fed's Williams: The Vice-Chair of the FOMC and the key "centrist" voice.The Board of Governors: This includes Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman Christopher WallerFed's Miran, replacing Adriana Kugler since her resigning, is part of the Board but serving a temporary mandate until further news – Fed Chair Powell may take his seat when his term finishes if he does not resign.Fed's Lisa Cook is still part of the Board. With her court case still pending, she cannot participate at FOMC Meetings.2026 Voters and their Hawkish/Dovish bias Four members will take the voting seat at the next FOMC meeting (January 28, 2026).The voters for 2026, essentially the Speakers to keep your eyes on are:Dallas Fed's Logan (very Hawkish)Cleveland Fed's Hammack (Neutral)Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari (Neutral but leaning more hawkish)Philly Fed's Paulson (Dovish)Keep in mind that biases also have an influence: when a dovish member makes a hawkish comment (or vice-versa), the impact tends to be much larger.2025 regional voters, will be less relevant for 2026:Collins, Goolsbee (both neutral)Musalem (Hawkish)Schmid (Most Hawkish)Who will be the Next appointed Fed Chair? zoom_out_map Who will be the next Fed Chair? December 15, 2025 – Source: Kalshi One of the major causes for Market anxiety has been who to appoint as the next Fed Chair.President Trump wants to see rates coming down, but also wants Stock Markets to stay confident.Kevin Hassett is not supported by Wall Street, so he might no be the President's choice.For that reason, odds for "the other Kevin" went up so much Kevin Warsh, a Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011.He will surely be leaning dovish but also maintains some reputation with his past experience.The appointee for the Fed Chair will then have to get officially approved by the Senate after Trump's appointment.The decision should be taken by the end of January 2026.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Friday provided a sharp shift in post-FOMC flows. The strong rallies in Equities—particularly in defensive sectors—turned sour as Fed members began to voice concerns regarding their recent decision.The bounce in the Debasement Trade following the Fed meeting came as a surprise, especially given that the cut and projections were more defensive than aggressive. Indeed, making a dovish case for 2026 is proving difficult, with the recent Dot Plot indicating only 1 to 2 cuts for the coming year. zoom_out_map Dot Plot for 2026 – Source: CNBC Fed's Goolsbee, a dissenter of the recent cut (alongside Kansas Fed's Schmid), gave markets and risk assets a fresh reality check through multiple rounds of interviews. His stance is clear:The Fed was and still is in a "comfortable position to wait."The central bank is still blind on the inflation picture.Frontloading cuts now could carry significant risks.Consequently, stocks printed a local top and have struggled to rebound since. zoom_out_map US Main Indexes Daily Outlook – Double tops in S&P 500 and Nasdaq? December 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView NY Fed President John Williams just issued a counter-narrative, warning that the labor market poses new risks while noting that inflation has eased—effectively mirroring Goolsbee's comments but from a different angle of concern.But dip-buyers haven't showed as much conviction this time around.As markets wiggle around in this conflicting narrative, all eyes are on tomorrow's NFP report (preview coming up soon).Let's dive into the intraday timeframe charts for all major US stock indexes to see where we stand. Read More:Markets Today: China Industrial Output at 15-Month Lows, Softbank Down 6%, Gold & Silver Hold High GroundFrom the FOMC to NFP and CPI – Markets Weekly OutlookMarkets Flash Red After Fed's Goolsbee: Was the Post-Cut Rally a Trap?A mixed picture across sectors – Typical pre-NFP trading zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (12:50 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 15, 2025 Dow Jones – Buyers are not following through zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – December 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones, bellwether of the post-FOMC bullish sentiment, has just rejected to its higher timeframe upward channel (formed since May 2025).Still evolving within the uptrend, the indication is more one of a slowdown in buyers' strength, for now, but things are still subject to change after tomorrow's release.Having formed a Head and Shoulders on its 4H RSI, momentum is facing a wall.Sellers have held prices at the past week lows throughout the entire morning session, so look at whether buyers manage to rebound from here.Failing to do so opens the door for sellers to take the short-term control.The hourly bull channel has its lower bound at around 47,850. Watch the reactions when and if prices get there.Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsAll-time High resistance between 48,400 to 48,886 (rejecting)48,700 session highsPotential Fib Target 2 49,52650,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target 3 (50,159)Support Levels50-period MA at 48,000Short-term Channel lows 47,850Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200August highs and November Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq – Higher timeframe warning zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – December 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is sending scary signs for tech and AI bulls.After a solid rebound ahead of the FOMC, the index hasn't been able to show any form of strength since the cut, even forming a double-top/lower high with the past week's bullish impulse.The 25,000 level, acting as immediate support, will be one of its decisive support, supported by the 4H MA 200 for the bulls to maintain the mid-term bullish outlook.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMajor Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support LevelsSupport 25,000 to 25,250 (current lows, testing)24,500 Main support and Pivot (recent rebound)October and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 – A fragile range zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – December 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P is still holding the 6,800 to 6,900 range indicated in our latest Index analysis but is now testing its support.Holding 6,800 will be key for bulls to withhold their current strength, particularly as the higher timeframe is also sending signs of a double top – however not as scary as the one in Nasdaq.Keep a close eye on the psychological support.Closing above would maintain the rangebound/bullish picture.Closing below opens the door to some downside all the way to November lows around 6,600.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896Resistance 6,850 to 6,880 (testing)ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological PivotSupport 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (15/12/2025): Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they discuss the latest in central bank monetary policy, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, Friday's sell-off in US equities, the US dollar, and more. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Santa Claus Rally Strategy: How to Trade the S&P 500's Most Reliable Seasonal PatternWall Street Indexes and more specifically the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, experienced a decline on Friday. This downward pressure was largely caused by Broadcom's recent financial results, which added to worries that the current high valuations around Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology might be creating a market bubble.This negative sentiment reduced the optimism that had been generated the previous day by the Federal Reserve's less aggressive signals about potential interest rate cuts in 2026.Shares of the chipmaker Broadcom dropped 8.4% after the company warned that its future profits on AI systems would be lower, even though it predicted strong sales.This forecast fueled concerns about how profitable the massive investments in AI technology will actually be. Other chip-related stocks also fell, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) losing 1% and the overall chip index dropping 1.5%.The cloud company Oracle also saw its shares fall 5%, following a massive drop in the previous session after it released a weak forecast. This was further exacerbated by reports that some of their data centers for OpenAI have been delayed from 2027 to 2028.S&P 500 Heatmap zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Fed Policymakers Strike Hawkish Tone Adding to the woes for Wall Street Indexes as well as risk sentiment has been comments from Federal Reserve policymakers.The two policymakers who dissented against a rate cut at the December 10 meeting this week, Schmid and Goolsbee both gave hawkish comments during the course of the day.Fed's Schmid says he dissented because inflation is too hot, policy should be modestly restrictive. Fed member Goolsbee, the President of the Chicago Fed, who was one of the officials who voted against the recent 25 bps rate cut, spent the morning giving several interviews.He strongly warned against the Federal Reserve cutting rates too quickly and too soon, a concept often called "Front-Loaded" cuts. His reasoning is because he fears this could cause damage to the economy, particularly by stalling progress on inflation, echoing concerns by Schmid.He explained that he preferred to wait until early next year to get more complete economic data, especially concerning inflation, as he believes the labor market is only cooling slowly and waiting poses little risk.Comments from voting members immediately after an FOMC meeting are always important because they give traders and investors deeper insight into the disagreements and reasons behind the final policy decision.For more on the comments and the immediate reaction to the comments, read Markets Flash Red After Fed's Goolsbee: Was the Post-Cut Rally a Trap?Will Seasonality Aid the S&P Breach 9000 Before Year-End? Market participants still hoping for a bullish end to the year will be looking toward things like seasonality and a potential Santa Rally to finish the year strong.Yesterday it seemed as though the 9000 break for the S&P 500 was only a matter of time, but following today's selloff market participants may be less confident.There is a positive thought in that historically the S&P 500 has performed admirably in the second half of December ranking as the fourth‑best half‑month period of the year going back to 1950. zoom_out_map Source: Isabelnet This coupled with the usual santa rally expectations may give bulls some optimism as we head into next week and the last jobs report of 2025. Will the unconventional NFP release be the catalyst needed for a final bullish push of the year? zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Let us take a look at the technical picture heading into next week.Technical Analysis - S&P 500 Index From a technical perspective, The Dow Jones Index four-hour chart and the price action remains bullish.However, the current four-hour candle is threatening to break structure with a candle close below 6831 likely to bring bears to the table with more conviction.The entire zone between the 6800-6850 zone is a confluence area which make the next few hours crucial and could set the tone for early week price action for the S&P 500.The price of the S&P is currently stuck between the 50 and 100-day EMAs with the 200-day EMA resting on the 6800 handle.A break of the 6800 handle could bring the swing high at 6756 into focus before support at 6700.A move higher here faces immediate resistance around 6884 before the 6900 and YTD at 6929 comes into focus.S&P 500 Four-Hour Chart, December 12, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Safe Trades and Happy Weekend.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (12/12/2025): In today's episode, TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss today's lackluster performance from US tech equities, especially concerning AI stocks, with a cloud still being cast over valuations. Otherwise, we look ahead to a busy week of trading, with a decision by the Bank of England likely to offer the first cut since June. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

In this special piece, we take a global look at the markets to spot which asset classes appreciated yesterday's Fed cut (to 3.50% - 3.75%) the most.A key distinction to remember is that when the FOMC lowers rates, it mainly correlates to short-term interest rates, not long-term ones, which are generally market-based.In other words, the Fed dictates rates from overnight up to the 2-year mark (via policy rates and guidance), while supply and demand largely determine where yields between 2 to 50 years settle (barring exceptions like QE or Yield Curve Control). zoom_out_map Market Outlook 30M Charts for S&P 500, Oil, 10-Year Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin and the USD. December 11 – Source: TradingView Generally, rate cuts provide a boost to all asset classes: bonds, stocks, cryptos, foreign currencies (assuming their domestic rates remain unchanged), commodities, housing, and more.However, due to the divergence between short-term and long-term yield movements, not all industries and asset classes receive the same boost.We will now dive into the winners and losers since yesterday's Fed decision. After a global overview, we will drill down into which segments within asset classes appreciated the most (e.g., Stock sectors, Altcoins vs. Bitcoin, Short-term vs. Long-term bonds).FYI: While things are always subject to change in markets, expect current flows to maintain their direction at least until next week's NFP (December 16) and CPI (December 18) releases. Read More:Stocks rotation begins: Dow Jones leads the market while Nasdaq and Tech retreatGold (XAU/USD) Forecast: $4250/oz Holds the Key for Bullish ContinuationReflections on Fed rate cut & forward guidance, silver continues to rallyA look at Asset performance before the Cut zoom_out_map Asset performance 3-weeks before the Cut (Fed Williams' comments) – Source: TradingView Risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies, were definitely the best performers before the Fed's rate cut, with a notable appetite for tech stocks (Nasdaq leading) and assets on the extreme side of the risk spectrum (like Altcoins) or those with higher general volatility.For example, although not on the graph due to their extreme performance, Silver posted a +21.15% gain and Ethereum posted a 15.83% gain.Therefore, during that timespan, overall flows were entirely focused on risk-on trades.Performance after the Cut zoom_out_map Asset performance since yesterday. December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current picture is much less obvious – logical as the timespan since the cut has been much shorter.Still, a picture is drawing from the past 24 hours of trading: Defensive and Industrials are dominating the picture.High-Beta and riskier assets are on the other hand taking a hit – Huge rotation flows.In terms of asset classes, Metals and Equities are the winners from far.But looking inside the classes makes it even more interesting.We will provide the details on what and why right after – But just so you know, Silver is squeezing relentlessly, up 10% since Monday and about 3% since yesterday.You can get access to levels for Silver trading right here – Pre-FOMC analysis but the levels are still valid.Looking inside the best performers and why zoom_out_map Per Sector Stock performance – December 11, 2025. Source: TradingView As you can see, the past 24 hours in Stock Markets has been very interesting.Low beta stocks are largely the best performers:As expected, Materials, Financials and Industrials are dominating the picture.On the other hand, Technology, Communications and Energy are all struggling quite a lot.But why?As explored in our recent piece on Stock Indexes, lower debt-costs for highly leveraged industries are getting a strong fundamental boost from lower rates.They will be able to finance their debt at much lower costs, boosting their expected profit margins.But why are metals, particularly Silver rallying so much? zoom_out_map Metal and Bonds Performance since Monday. December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView Metals are non-yielding assets, and are considered as diversification holdings.Hence, when rates go down, the Opportunity cost of holding metals goes down.Bonds also tend to see higher demand when interest rates go down.But why are metals, particularly Silver, significantly outpacing Bonds and other assets?This connects to the Debasement Trade theme, where governmental assets see a much lesser demand compared to finite assets – When the Trump Administration scares Markets with less international trade, and a generally weaker Dollar, Metals grab a lot of interest.Gold for example has been accumulated by Central Banks (particularly China) as they aim to diversify their Reserves from their US Treasury majority, before seen as the ultimate Safe-Haven.More on this right here. zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 8H Chart. December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView So Silver actually combines both the criteria of Safe-Haven metal, boosted by the Fed Cut and gets another push from higher demand for industrial production.Serendipitous conditions for the metal to keep pushing higher.The Squeeze is immense, but still, be careful of some targets potentially being attained soon – Since I began to write this piece, XAG/USD pulled back somewhat (but still remains much higher than before the Fed).Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Today's equity flows are largely prolonging what happened ahead of the FOMC:The Dow Jones extends its lead and recently broke all-time Highs, while the Tech Sectors and Nasdaq are struggling.Breaking News: Dow Jones (DJIA) breaks its record to 48,500For those who missed the morning labor update, Jobless Claims regained their path higher at 236K vs 220K expected, catching up after the past week's low release (due to seasonal adjustments from Thanksgiving) – Forging the path to more rate cuts in 2026After its strong outperformance throughout 2025 (currently at + ~22%), the Tech-heavy Nasdaq is getting dragged lower as peak-AI fears and elevated valuations leads to a huge shift towards Traditional and Defensive sectors – Nasdaq gapped lower by 0.63% and went down all the way to -1.53% at the open!Up 2.20% in two days, the Dow Jones (+ ~13% since the beginning of the year) had lagged its peers is now attempting to catch up. zoom_out_map US Main Indexes Daily Outlook. December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView Healthcare, Credit Services (Visa up close to 4%), Consumer Defensives and Industrials are leading the current rebound, while Technology, Semiconductors and Communication Services are the worst Sectors in today's picture.Stocks, particularly in traditional sectors tend to love rate cuts as such debt-heavy industries can finally reduce their debt-service after more than two years of +4% Interest Rates.The US Dollar is getting hammered quite harshly and is as always a leading indicator to Equity performance – Keep an eye on the DXY! zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (10:54 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView Let's dive into intraday timeframe analysis for the three major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500! Read More:Reflections on Fed rate cut & forward guidance, silver continues to rallyGold (XAU/USD) Forecast: $4250/oz Holds the Key for Bullish ContinuationMarkets Today: SNB Hold Rates, SoftBank Falls 7.7%, Gold Slips Post FOMC. DAX Holds Above Psychological 24000 HandleDow Jones – Rams through its preceding record zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView DJIA is exploding within its steep upward channel formed after reaching its November lows – Up around 6% since!Bouncing from its 50-Period Moving Average (47,844), buyers are taking back control of the action.Breaching the 48,500 to 48,750 Resistance Zone will still be critical to materialize a decisive push to a concrete breakout in the Index – Except for some slightly overbought conditions, the Price action suggests that the move should continue.Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsAll-time High resistance between 48,500 to 48,720 (testing)49,000 Psychological level and Fibonacci Target 1 and Channel highsPotential Fib Target 2 49,52650,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target 3 (50,159)Support Levels1H mini-Support at Yesterday's close 48,000Short-term Channel lows 47,800Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200August highs and November Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq – Taking a hit zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView The picture is looking very different for the Nasdaq which had recovered strongly since its November catastrophic drop.Bears are in control of the short-term momentum and the Mid-term is now neutral (from bullish)Now moving below its 50-period MA, previous support and now resistance, it seems that every extra point in the Dow Jones costs the Nasdaq the same margin.Keep an eye on a potential Short-term bear channel (see on chart) and reactions to the 25,000 Support Zone.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levelsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support LevelsMajor Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 pts (breaking)Support 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main support and Pivot (recent rebound)October and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportExplore our recent detailed review of the Index right here:Nasdaq 100: Post-FOMC gains wiped out, but technicals are still bullishS&P 500 – Rangebound action zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Spoose has been boring as of late, not generating much movement or volatility since recovering most of its November drop.Rangebound between 6,800 and 6,900, it looks like the Index to play if you like to trade consolidations.Watch how it reacts to its extremes – The range doesn't have many reasons to break before next week's data releases.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896Resistance 6,850 to 6,880 (testing)ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological PivotSupport 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological support Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Fed just cut rates by 25 bps – Neutral tone (neither dovish or hawkish)It was largely expected and the Fed doesn't like to surprise Markets, so they tend to follow pricing closely (or send out a message through Nick TImiraos just before in case they had a last-minute change of mind).You can get access to the detailed report right here:Breaking News: US Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps, bringing target range to 3.50 - 3.75%There has been extra mentions of a US labor market getting weaker, but the Fed still made balanced remarks on their dual mandate, implying that they are still concerned with inflation.The dot plot suggests between 50 to 75 bps of cutting throughout 2026, less than what the Market priced ahead of the meeting, so this might hurt risk-assets a bit.The US Dollar is getting rejected however so the immediate buying can be sustained for a bit.Still, Stocks (particularly the Dow Jones), Bitcoin, and commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil) are rallying after the decision. Bonds are retreating from their spikes however, so interest rate markets are not as optimistic about this cut.Keep in mind that things are still subject to a lot of change as Powell will soon appear.You can get access to his live speech right here.Let's dive into an outlook of the Market and watch the few charts from the Summary of Economic Projections.Market Reactions zoom_out_map Market Outlook with the S&P 500, Oil, 10-Year Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin and the USD Economic Projections – Very positive for the economy zoom_out_map Economic projections of Federal Reserve Members for 2026 and forward – Source: Federal Reserve You can get access to the Economic Projections right here. Very interesting report.Dot Plot zoom_out_map Fed's Dot Plot – Source: Federal Reserve The plot is scattered throughout, but overall, it seems that the Fed sees 3.00% to 3.25% rates by the end of 2026.Some members seem to express that rates should stay here.Get ready for Powell as things may move very erratically! Watch for comments on Inflation and Employment.Things will move even more as Markets learn more on the only Fed's concern: Employment, NFP releases on December 16.Safe Trades and Good luck for Powell!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Fed Federal Funds Rate (December 2025): 3.50-3.75% vs 3.50-3.75% expected, meets consensus In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. Federal Reserve FOMC Statement, December 10th 2025 Breaking: The Federal Reserve has voted to cut rates by 25 basis points in its December 2025 decision, bringing the policy rate target range to 3.50% - 4.75%, meeting market expectations.Key takeaway: Representing the third consecutive cut made by the Federal Reserve, a decision to cut in today’s vote shows a shifting of priorities away from controlling inflation, and instead focuses on improving an otherwise softening US labour market. US interest rates are now at their lowest level since 2022. Three policy makers dissented to the decision, with two voting to maintain rates, and one other voting for a 50 basis point cut.Market Reaction: zoom_out_map US dollar (DXY), Gold (XAU/USD) & S&P 500 (SPX500USD), D1, OANDA & TVC, TradingView, 19:24 10/12/2025 In the minutes that followed the release:The US dollar (DXY) fell in value by -0.31%Gold bullion (XAU/USD) rallied by +0.62%The S&P 500 (SPX500USD) rallied by +0.15%US Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps, cites weakening labour conditions as justification While today’s decision meets broader market expectations of a 25 basis point cut, it’s important to remember how contested this vote was supposed to be - at least on paper.Having cut rates in October, markets originally predicted another would follow in December, until Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Jefferson made some hawkish comments a week or so later, which saw rate cut probabilities drop to around 60%.Since, however, it would seem that there is no shortage of dovish commentary from Fed policymakers, vindicated by a rising unemployment rate and a slowdown in job additions to the US economy, which left the rate cut probability at over 80% going into today’s decision. zoom_out_map CME FedWatch, 10/12/2025 (post December meeting) Looking ahead to January’s decision, markets now expect rates to be maintained, but as we’ve seen since October, nothing is set in stone. Read Elior’s coverage on the latest FOMC meeting: The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.75% – Market Reactions Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Less than two hours to the December FOMC!Time is ticking before the FOMC meeting, and volatility has stayed remarkably contained in Stocks—a stark contrast to the Oil market, which saw its price battered again in today's session.Still, the Dow Jones is outperforming its peers, so traders are expecting a positive outlook for the Industrial index – Watch out for bad surprises!What is certain is that things should start moving heavily towards the afternoon. With today's FOMC meeting also releasing the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)—including the famous "Dot Plot"—expect a wave of repricing as traders scramble to explore the different scenarios for 2026, particularly given the ongoing doubts about future decisions in a complex political and economic landscape. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market – Source: TradingView The current setup is optimistic: since NY Fed President Williams' dovish comments, most indexes have rallied strongly and are approaching this event close to their All-Time Highs. However, elevated valuations leave little room for error.We will give out a few scenarios before providing charts and technical levels for all the major US Indexes. Keep in mind that the scenarios may be incorrect as things tend to get really chaotic during such events.And even after initial reactions, you can still expect levels and trends to change throughout the event. Put on your volatility shoes and get ready to see a lot of movement. Read More:Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) levels for the FOMCUS Curve outlook: Why US Treasury yields are surging before the FedFOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY) zoom_out_map US Main Indices Daily Outlook. December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Scenarios for the FOMC – To be taken with a pinch of salt Keep in mind that the scenarios may be incorrect as things tend to get really chaotic during such events.The Bullish Case – A dovish cut Odds for this scenario are not too high but still a possibility.The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps and also maintain future rate cuts expectations high by making less mentions of tariffs and inflation to focus more on the Labor picture.Stocks race higher, particularly debt-heavy sectors like Industrials, which may take the Dow Jones to outperform.Expect All-time highs across all names and a much lower US Dollar. The balanced Case – No cut but dovish communications The Fed holds rates to current levels but hint at cuts in 2026 as tariff-led inflation confirms to not increase.Powell makes mentions of a weakening Labor market, implying cuts throughout 2026 as tariff-led inflation becomes more clear. Expect stocks to selloff initially before rallying to their recent highs – This scenario will also put a LOT of emphasis on future CPI data.The bearish case – The Fed cuts but signal less cuts in 2026 The Fed cuts but shows less intent to cut in 2026, with communications on a "Risk-Management" cut as labor markets shows some weakness but is still far from bad.Dot plots point to less needs for cuts in 2026 which will trigger fears in a very optimistically-priced Stock Market.Later data, particularly if it comes weaker, should add back cuts in the curve and lead to a rebound in the Market. But some pain may come first in such a scenario.Stock Indexes Charts and Trading LevelsDow Jones zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 8H Chart – December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 48,459Psychological resistance at 48,000 +/- 100 pts (immediate test)Weekly highs 48,131Support LevelsKey Pivot zone 47,500 - 47,650 (Recent bounce)Higher timeframe Support 47,000 to 47,20046,000 +/- 300pts Key SupportAugust highs and November Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 8H Chart – December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levelsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support LevelsMajor Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsSupport 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main support and Pivot (recent rebound)October and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 8H Chart – December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896 Resistance 6,850 to 6,880 (testing)ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological PivotSupport 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Recovers, Broader Challenges Remain Most Read: FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY)The Nikkei index finished higher on Tuesday, overcoming an initial slump thanks to strong gains from chip-related companies. Three of the five biggest contributors to the index's rise were semiconductor firms, with the chip-making tool maker Tokyo Electron leading the way, following a positive performance by their US counterparts overnight. The Nikkei index ultimately added 0.1% to close the day slightly higher, while the broader Topix index ended flat.Japanese stocks started the day cautiously because investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday. Although a cut in US interest rates is widely anticipated, the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy is uncertain due to disagreements among board members.Meanwhile, MSCI Inc.'s global equities index saw a small decrease of 0.1%.The MSCI index of emerging Asia equities experienced a significant decline on Tuesday, falling by 0.7%. This was the single largest drop this index has seen in over two weeks. In contrast, the index that tracks the value of currencies in emerging markets remained unchanged.RBA Holds Rates, Cites Inflation Concerns In its final meeting of 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided unanimously to keep its main interest rate (cash rate) unchanged at 3.6%, which was expected by the market and marks the third meeting in a row without a change. This keeps the cost of borrowing money at its lowest level since April 2023.The central bank acknowledged that inflation has dropped significantly since its peak in 2022, but they noted a recent slight increase in prices. Although some of this recent rise seems temporary, the RBA sees early signs of more widespread and long-lasting price pressures that need close attention. Regarding jobs, the RBA said the market is "a little tight" where unemployment is going up slightly and job creation is slowing, but overall unused capacity remains low, and businesses are still having trouble finding workers.Given the uncertain outlook both in Australia and globally, especially concerning how much the current low interest rate setting is actually limiting growth, the board warned that stronger-than-expected spending by the private sector could put further strain on the economy if it continues. Because of all these mixed signals, policymakers decided to be cautious and wait for more data before making any new changes to the interest rate.European Session - Marginal Gains in Early Trade European stock markets saw a small increase on Tuesday, with both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 indices rising by almost 0.2%, bouncing back slightly after a quiet day on Monday.Traders were generally cautious and avoided making big moves while waiting for the US. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is due tomorrow. Markets also reacted to news that US President Trump will allow Nvidia to ship its advanced H200 AI chips to "approved customers" in China.Defense company stocks were notable gainers, including Hensoldt, Rheinmetall, and BAE Systems, after reports suggested German lawmakers are set to approve a record €52 billion worth of military spending next week. Renewable energy stocks were also up, with Orsted gaining after a US federal judge reportedly found President Trump's proposed ban on wind energy to be illegal.However, offsetting these gains was a sharp drop of over 13% in the stock of Thyssenkrupp, which finished at the bottom of the STOXX 600 after forecasting a significant loss of up to €800 million for the year 2026On the FX front, the Australian dollar got stronger after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chose to keep its interest rates steady, a decision that had been widely expected. The Australian currency rose by 0.2% as markets waited for the US Federal Reserve's important meeting later this week, especially since the RBA warned that a recent rise in inflation might continue.Meanwhile, the Japanese yen also gained ground in Asian trading following a strong 7.5-magnitude earthquake in Japan's northeast, which made investors cautious before the expected decisions from the US Fed and other central banks. Also helping the yen was strong interest in an auction of five-year Japanese government bonds.The overall US dollar index remained mostly unchanged.Separately, the euro stabilized after European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel suggested that the ECB's next move might be to raise interest rates, not cut them as some people expect, though she clarified that a move would not happen very soon.The British pound and the New Zealand dollar also both saw small gainsCurrency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices fell slightly on Tuesday, adding to the 2% drop seen the day before. Markets are currently keeping a close watch on several factors: the ongoing peace talks aimed at ending the war between Russia and Ukraine; worries about having too much oil supply available globally; and the important upcoming decision on US interest rates.Specifically, Brent crude oil futures fell by 7 cents (0.1%) to trade at 62.42 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 13 cents (0.2%) to trade at 58.75 per barrel.Gold prices declined slightly on Tuesday. While investors have largely already factored in the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, they are now focused on what might happen next.Specifically, they are looking for any hints that the central bank might choose to reduce rates more slowly than anticipated, a strategy called a "gentler-than-expected easing cycle." This repositioning by investors is happening just ahead of the start of the Fed's two-day policy meeting later today.As of the latest update, the price of immediate gold delivery (spot gold) was down 0.3% at 4,174.91/oz, and US gold futures for December delivery were down 0.4% at 4,202.70/oz.Read More:Classic pre-FOMC trading – North American session Market Wrap for December 8AUD/USD: Major bullish breakout of Aussie ahead of RBAWTI Rangebound: How Stalled Peace Talks & OPEC Strategy Will Shape the Oil MarketEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet today with a lack of high impact data releases. We will hear comments from both ECB and BoE policymakers which could stoke some volatility.The US session will also be a bit slow from a data perspective with Jolts job opening numbers the only high impact release ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow.There is a probability that markets may remain rangebound and cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting. Lack of commitment by market participants as uncertainty remains a key concern. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has failed to hold above the 100-day MA.At present the FTSE is hovering around the 100-day MA but does appear at risk of further downside.The current malaise could also be down to concerns around the implications of the Federal Reserve rate decision tomorrow.Immediate support rests at 9610, 9550 and 9450 respectively.A move higher may encounter some resistance at 9687, 9720 and 9850.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, December 9. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 8Today's session was victim of classic pre-FOMC trading:Volatile but low magnitude moves due to some traders cutting their positions at the last minuteSome assets and/or currencies just seem dead.There hasn't been much data to help volatility today and the same can be said tomorrow.In terms of economics, the Trump Administration seems to be moving towards a new TACO with tariffs on Canadian fertilizers.But more importantly for Stocks, particularly Nvidia, the US just pulled the restrictions on H200 Chips, essential for AI Models.On Ukraine, Zelenskyy communicated some positive words about recent Europe-Ukraine talks in London, but the market still awaits further developments. Read More:FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY)Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) Technical Analysis – AI Leaders Outlook Part 3Technical Analysis of Google and Microsoft Stocks – AI Leaders Outlook part 2Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Everything got pulled by the mean-reversion move in the US Dollar – The Greenback is the only asset higher on the session.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 8 – Source: OANDA Labs Very low volatility in FX Markets, but an interesting move in the US Dollar has materialized:The Dollar Index still respects its high timeframe range – Check out our recent analysis of the Greenback right here.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The evening session offers some interesting developments for AUD traders:A high-expectations RBA Rate Decision (11:30 p.M. ET) will be on the watch with the latest round of high-inflation data released for Australia.Traders will be watching closely for communications on potential hikes! Cuts will surely be out of the way for now. Interesting developments there.The current Cash Rate is at 3.60% and no change is expected.Tomorrow's session (Tuesday) is packed with high-tier US labor data and European rhetoric.The early morning session will feature ECB's Nagel (04:00 A.M. ET) and BoJ Governor Ueda (05:00 A.M. ET) speeches. Any commentary on inflation or global growth will move the Euro and Yen.The North American Session will be dominated by labor market health checks:ADP Employment Change (09:15 A.M. ET): This report is a key measure of the private sector labor market. The previous official report showed private employment unexpectedly declined, making this release a crucial indicator of current hiring trends.JOLTS Job Openings (11:00 A.M. ET): This reading of job vacancies provides a measure of labor demand and tightness. Consensus is expected around 7.2 million.The evening will however be the most important:China CPI and PPI (09:30 P.M. ET): This is a high-impact release for global markets and AUD/NZD. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases will confirm whether China is successfully battling deflation (PPI) while maintaining stable consumer price growth (CPI).Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on December 10, 2025, is a highly important final decision of the year that will determine the immediate direction of interest rates and set expectations for next year's monetary policy. This event is unusually difficult to predict because the policymakers are facing conflicting economic reports such as a softening job market versus still-elevated inflation and are significantly divided over what action to take.In short, it is the year's last major rate decision, and the mixed signals and internal disagreements among the committee members make the outcome exceptionally unpredictable.Interest Rate Probabilities Ahead of FOMC zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Navigating Without a Compass The importance of the December 2025 decision is made much harder by the fact that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is essentially flying blind right now. The Fed usually bases its decisions on the latest government data about jobs and inflation, but a recent six-week government shutdown has completely stopped the publication of these key statistics. Because of this, the FOMC is meeting on December 10th without any official government inflation or jobs data since September.The Fed have been forced to rely on unofficial, "private" reports, like the recent ADP report which showed a worrying loss of 32,000 jobs. If this private data is accurate, the Fed needs to cut rates immediately to avoid a recession, but if the private data is wrong, cutting rates could cause inflation to surge again.Data Void and Release Dates zoom_out_map Source: LSEG This lack of data forces the Fed to confront the two parts of its mission: keeping prices stable (low inflation) and supporting maximum employment (low unemployment) which are now in direct conflict.On the one hand, the labor market is showing dangerous cracks. While the unemployment rate is currently 4.4%, the speed at which it's rising is setting off a major recession warning signal, known as the "Sahm Rule." This situation argues for an immediate rate cut to prevent a potential "hard landing" recession. On the other hand, the fight against inflation is not over.Inflation, as measured by the Fed's preferred index, is stuck at 2.8%, which is almost a full percentage point above their 2.0% target. Cutting rates now could cause inflation to rebound, especially with the potential for new government spending and tariffs. Because they lack the recent data to settle this argument, the December meeting has become a battle between policymakers' opposing fears: the "doves" worry more about a recession, while the "hawks" worry more about runaway inflation.The Decision Matrix: Potential Scenarios Despite the economic confusion, the majority of market participants expect the FOMC to make a "safety cut" of 25 basis points (a quarter of a percent). The logic is that this small cut is an insurance policy against the job market completely collapsing, but it's not so large that it fully gives up the fight against inflation.However, this market consensus hides a major disagreement within the Committee itself. Analysts predict a historically high number of dissenting votes (policymakers who vote against the decision), which would signal to investors that Chair Powell has lost control of the policy message and would introduce a lot of uncertainty for the following year.The "Dot Plot" BattlefieldThe real fight isn't just about the current rate cut, but about the communication of future interest rates. This is shown in the "Dot Plot" , a chart that shows where each Fed member expects the interest rate to be in 2026 and beyond. The market is currently expecting the Fed to cut rates roughly four times in 2026, which would send the stock market soaring (the Bull Case). But some forecasters predict the Dot Plot will show a median expectation of only two cuts for 2026. This would be a "hawkish cut" meaning the Fed cuts now but signals they are nearly done which would severely disappoint the market and could lead to a drop in stock prices.The "Powell Put" vs. The "Trump Call"The political dimension of this meeting cannot be overstated. With the transition of power looming in January 2026, the Federal Reserve is under intense scrutiny. President-elect Trump has advocated for lower rates to offset his proposed tariff regime. Powell must navigate the optics of appearing politically independent.If he cuts aggressively, he risks accusations of juicing the economy for the incoming administration or bowing to political pressure.If he holds, he risks accusations of sabotaging the economic handover. This political shadow suggests Powell will likely opt for the middle path: a 25bps cut (to satisfy the growth mandate) coupled with stern language about data dependence (to satisfy the inflation mandate).Market Implications: The US Dollar and Global FX The Dollar's DilemmaThe US Dollar (DXY) is currently caught between cyclical weakness and structural strength. Seasonally, December is a weak month for the Greenback. However, the medium-term outlook is dominated by the concept of divergence.The Bear Case for USD: The Fed cuts rates, acknowledging a slowing US economy. The yield advantage that the Dollar enjoys over the Euro and Yen erodes. Simultaneously, the uncertainty regarding the next Fed Chair potentially the dovish Kevin Hassett leads markets to price in a "lower for longer" regime. This pushes EUR/USD back toward 1.15.The Bull Case for USD (The Disappointment Trade): This is the more nuanced risk. The market is pricing in aggressive cuts for 2026. If the Fed's Dot Plot pushes back, signaling "patience," yields at the short end of the US curve (2-year Treasury) will spike. This would catch Dollar bears offside, triggering a short squeeze that rallies the DXY.Furthermore, if the US economy continues to grow at 2% while the Eurozone stagnates, the "US Exceptionalism" trade remains the dominant force, putting a floor under the Dollar.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, December 8, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.Com (click image to enlarge). Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Welcome to the follow-up piece to our individual Stock Market leaders analysis.Apart from the tragic news of a severe earthquake in Japan, there hasn’t been much to affect Markets ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision.Stock Indexes have on a muted, red note, sending out profit-taking vibes into the Market. The same could be said for most actively traded assets – The calm before the FOMC storm; a great occasion to dive into individual Stock names.Towards the end of last week, we published two in-depth analyses for the four leaders of the Stock Market rally: Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google.If you missed them, you can get access right here: Read More: AI Leaders Outlook: Technical Analysis of Meta and Nvidia StocksTechnical Analysis of Google and Microsoft Stocks – AI Leaders Outlook part 2 zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (11:02 A.M.) – A red wave – December 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView With no crazy speeches or data releases expected before, the path should not be too chaotic before Wednesday.We will now turn into Weekly and intraday charts for Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) to conclude our pre-FOMC Stock analysis.Apple (AAPL) – Holding strong but at key headwindsWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Apple Weekly Stock Chart. December 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Apple (AAPL) Forward Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio – 32.00 ~ High but historical for the firmApple is showing the example once again, consistently running higher and shows relatively restrained corrections when the stock does correct.Running within a 5-year upward channel, the tech giant has consistently increased its earnings and made a strong push to new all-time highs just last week ($288).Nevertheless, investors and traders will have to be cautious about the reactions to the quintessential upper-bound of the Channel: The week has opened on a slight lower gap in the Stock which may prompt some profit-taking all the way to the $260 Pivot Zone, depending on risk-appetite after the FOMC.The Weekly RSI also seems to be turning the other way.Let's take a closer look.8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Apple 8H Stock Chart. December 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView After attaining new all-time highs last Wednesday, Apple has been subject to a not-so crazy profit-taking wave.Now coming at a retest of the October highs, positive reactions can be expected which may only materialize after Wednesday.In case the correction extends further however, some short-term dip-buying areas could include $270 (August Channel lower bound), $266 (8H MA 50) and $255 (Previous ATH Pivot lows).Any weekly candle that closes below the area however could trigger further, higher timeframe mean reversion in the title. Keep an eye on sentiment as always, particularly as we move towards 2026.Apple (AAPL) Technical levels of Interest:Resistance Levels$280 to $288 All-time High Resistance$288.62 Current All-Time Highs$295 to $305 Fib-Induced potential ResistanceSupport Levels$260 previous ATH Major PivotAugust 2024 Pivotal Support $230$200 Post-Liberation Day Range and Channel Lows$200 to $210 Early 2025 peak$170 Liberation Day Lows2022 and 2023 lows between $80 to $100Amazon (AMZN) – A mean reversal lowerWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Amazon (AMZN) Weekly Stock Chart. December 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Amazon (AMZN) Forward Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio – 28.50 ~ Regressing from current elevated levelsAmazon remains a staple in the US Market, consistently increasing its revenues throughout the years. This year hasn't missed the trend.Nevertheless, the $258.60 record reached in beginning November has preceded a strong move lower.Not the first name that pops into investors' minds when they think of AI, Amazon Web Services (AWS) leverages the new technologies extensively . The firm's huge investments into AI-related infrastructure could be one of the reasons why it has corrected, amid a general doubt on how sustainable this boom is: The immense spending reduces the amount of Cash Flows reported. Strong cash positions are traditionally a reason for Amazon to outperform its peers.Let's take a closer look.8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Amazon (AMZN) 8H Stock Chart. December 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView The outlook for Amazon is one to look to get a general idea of American consumption trends – And the picture isn't so great.A leader of consumer sales and tech services, Amazon has began a new corrective move after its end-November rebound.Evolving within a low-slope Channel, the conditions for the Stock are more rangebound – Not such a worrying sign.RSI is turning lower after crossing back above neutral, which leaves sellers in short-term control – Buyers will want to watch if the current move lower will see a bottom at the 200-Period Moving Average ($214.84).A Daily close below points at further downside in the Stock – A minima test of the $200 Support. A bigger move from there will warrant further analysis.Amazon (AMZN) Technical levels of Interest:Resistance LevelsNovember 2025 $255 to $260 Highs$258.60 current ATH$240 February 2025 ResistanceSupport Levels$220 to $230 Pivot Zone (Acting as immediate support)$200 Psychological Support$160 to $170 Liberation Day Support$200 to $210 Early 2025 peak$161.38 Liberation Day lows$81.69 2023 LowsSafe Trades and a successful FOMC Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. 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