Key takeaways Yen weakness intensifies despite softer USD: USD/JPY has broken above the 158.80 key resistance and is trading near 158.9, marking a 1.5-year high as the yen continues to underperform even amid a broader US dollar pullback; verbal intervention has so far failed to halt the move.Politics overtaking rates as the main driver: The traditional link between USD/JPY and US–Japan yield differentials has weakened since April 2025, with yen selling increasingly driven by the “Takaichi Trade” and snap-election risks that could reinforce pro-stimulus policies and constrain the BoJ’s tightening path.Intervention risk rising as CPI looms: USD/JPY has entered the historical intervention-risk zone near 159.45 ahead of US CPI, with short-term momentum still bullish above 158.10, but a failure to hold this support could trigger a corrective pullback. The Japanese yen has stood out as the FX market outlier over the past three trading sessions, remaining persistently weak despite a broader softening in the US dollar against other major currencies (see Fig. 1).Intraday K-shaped performance in FX market zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 1-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 13 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The yen has continued to fall on Tuesday, 13 January 2025, as the USD/JPY breached the 158.00 psychological level on Monday. In today’s Asia session, the Japanese currency extended its losses to hit a one-and-a-half-year low against the US dollar. The USD/JPY is now trading at an intraday level of 158.86 at the time of writing.Verbal interventions from key authorities have so far failed to stem the ongoing yen weakness. During the late Monday US session, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama commented that she and US Treasury Secretary Bessent shared a “common concern” about the one-way weakening of the yen.USD/JPY movements are moving away from rate differentials, with politics as the main driver zoom_out_map Fig. 2: 2-year & 10-year US Treasury/JGB yield spreads major trends with USD/JPY as of 13 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) In the past five years, there has been a strong direct correlation between the movement of the USD/JPY and the US-Japan sovereign bond yield (rate) differentials.However, this relationship has started to break down. Since April 2025, the narrowing of the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury/JGB yield spread has failed to spark a downward drift of the USD/JPY (see Fig. 2).The primary reason that may explained the recent yen weakness is likely related to the “Takaichi Trade” narrative. On Sunday, local Japanese media reported that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi had the intention to dissolve the parliament's lower house and called for a snap election soon, either on February 8 or February 15.A snap election would likely aim to capitalize on high approval ratings of about 70% for Takaichi and could strengthen the Liberal Democratic Party’s grip on power in the more powerful lower house in Japan’s parliament. Hence, if successful as it is intended, Takaichi can have a firmer mandate to pursue pro-stimulus policies that may hinder the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s current gradual interest rate hike policy.USD/JPY is trading inside the intervention-risk zone ahead of today’s US CPI zoom_out_map Fig. 3: USD/JPY medium-term & major trends as of 13 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The BoJ, under the instruction of the Ministry of Finance, last intervened in the FX market to sell down the US dollar on 12 July 2024 when the USD/JPY hit an intraday high of 159.45.The USD/JPY is now trading close to the 159.45 level, which is breaking above the upper limit of a key medium-term pivotal resistance of 158.80 (see Fig. 3).Let’s now highlight what the key levels to watch on the USD/JPY are based on a technical analysis perspective, as we wait for the release of the US CPI data for December later today, which can be a short-term key driver to spark two-way movement on the USD/JPYShort-term momentum supports further USD/JPY strength zoom_out_map Fig. 4: USD/JPY minor trend as of 13 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The USD/JPY has staged a bullish breakout with an hourly close above the 158.80 key medium-term resistance, without any bearish divergence condition seen on its hourly RSI momentum indicator at its overbought region (see Fig. 4).Watch the 158.10 key short-term pivotal support on the USD/JPY to maintain the intraday bullish momentum for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 159.45/159.75 and 160.24/160.35 (also a Fibonacci extension).On the flipside, a break and an hourly close below 158.10 invalidates the bullish bias to open up scope for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 157.50, 157.28/157.00, and even 156.30 (close to the 20-day moving average) Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 12Traders and investors woke up to another piece of bad news – the Trump Administration and the US Department of Justice orchestrated yet another attack on Federal Reserve Chair Powell.The pretext? Misleading statements in his testimony at the Senate (legal requirement for all Federal Reserve Members).The real pretext? Finding new ways to fire the head of the US Central Bank just ahead of the upcoming FOMC – Another attack on the Fed.And Jerome Powell responded fearlessly this time. I invite you all to listen to his (short) speech.The problem is that neither the US dollar nor financial markets can function adequately without a central bank free from political influences.Historically, politicized central banks have often been associated with high or even extreme inflation, disorderly stock market movements, and financial outflows – not a great cocktail.The US President wants to see rates go down further. However, the Fed can’t commit due to a still solid labor Market (Unemployment Rate is higher than it was a few years ago, but still very low in the grand scheme of things) – And a still very unclear inflation picture – More on this tomorrow morning (US CPI releases at 8:30 A.M. ET).The consequences? Anxious investors, volatile movements, and a pursuit of diversification away from the US Dollar.Most heavily traded metals have rallied to new all-time or yearly highs after the headline, stocks sharply opened lower, the Dollar shot down, and a general angst regarding the outcome arose.Even US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed his confusion regarding the event. Discover:Fed Chair Powell is Under Attack – Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) Fresh All-Time HighsTraders are Moving Past Powell's Investigation - US Stock Index Outlook & Pre-CPI Trading LevelsKey Support Holds for GBP/USD as Traders Eye US Inflation and UK GDPStock Market Heatmap – Widespread Rally except for Healthcare and Softwares zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 12, 2026 Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView You can see how volatile cross-asset performance was today with many classes falling, recovering etc.Despite a session which finally turned risk-on, some doubts remain – CPI is coming up tomorrow and with the latest event, things could look grim in any strong beat.Too, with all the geopolitical events, Markets have remained calm. A potential time bomb? Oil and Bitcoin are moving quite sharply since the close. I'll be posting on any headlines if there's any.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 12, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs There has been two themes in FX Markets today.The first one being a huge selloff in the US Dollar after the investigation got revealed, pushing all majors higher (except for one) – The Kiwi Dollar is the standout winner of the session as business confidence rebounded from the latest release.The second, less market shaking, is the fresh wave of Yen selling to start the week. JPY bulls are not enjoying the announcement for next month's Japanese snap elections, when the PM Takaichi could grab more power and drown the Yen in further dilution.The Nikkei actually loves this, up 5% since Friday.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this tonight and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Things will get quite busy in the next 24 hours.Today's evening session will start with a speech from the very influential NY Fed Williams at an International Economics event (look for clues regarding the upcoming Rate Decision and his views for 2026).For the rest, mid-tier data for Australia, Japan, and the UK between 18:30 and 19:00.But the real test will be tomorrow:The US session will start the festivities, with the ADP Weekly report at 8:15 a.m. (Will the labor picture still rebound?)But most importantly, an up-to-date US CPI report.This one will be the most important in almost six months, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics' closure has hurt all reports since October (so the last clear CPI was released in September – that's a while ago!)For the rest of the day, expect a few speeches from Fed officials Musalem and Barkin, two non-voters who still offer interesting insights into their 2026 outlooks.In terms of data, there will be the US New Home Sales release at 10:00 and the US Monthly Budget at 14:00.The evening session will then present some Trade data for China – of high importance for the global economy outlook.Safe Trades and a Successful Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The morning session was nothing short of volatile.Overnight futures took a hit following news of the DOJ's investigation into Jerome Powell, once again casting a shadow over the Federal Reserve's independence. Yet, this market—and its traders—should never be underestimated.Stocks caught a bid immediately after the open as participants shrugged off the headlines, using the early drop as yet another buying opportunity.Despite modest percentage gains on the day, the technical achievements are significant: the Dow is pacing for another record close, the Nasdaq is breaching monthly highs, and the S&P 500 is trading at fresh All-Time Highs.Individual names are also making history, with Google (Alphabet) recently breaking the $4T market cap milestone as Apple officially announced that they would require Google services for Apple Intelligence. zoom_out_map Google Daily Chart – Source: TradingView It seems "bad news is good news" in this environment.As long as the investigation remains a headline rather than an official indictment, investors remain resolutely bullish. Supplemented by heightened geopolitical pressures boosting defense and industrial sectors and driving metals to new highs, the trend remains intact.However, expect momentum to potentially taper off as the day progresses; traders will likely begin squaring positions ahead of tomorrow's massive Inflation (CPI) release at 8:30 A.M (expected at +0.3% to 2.7% Y/Y)Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts and NFP trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (14:42 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 12, 2026 Healthcare is hurting once again, seeing quite some outflows in the beginning of this after a huge 2025 trading.Financials are also struggling in the session as traders await key earnings for JP Morgan and Bank of New York Mellon tomorrow, while Energy drags from Exxon's CEO comments on "uninvestable" Venezuela projects.The rest of the Market shows green. Read More:NFP Preview: Federal Reserve’s Pivot at a Crossroads, Implications for the US Dollar & Nasdaq 100When the radar goes dark: Navigating the market after the COT report delayMarkets Today: German Factory Orders Surge, Nikkei Slips as Markets Eye NFP Data & Supreme Court Tariff RulingDow Jones 2H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView Up a strong 1.16% since its open, the Dow is on pace to break new records again, now evolving within a strong intraday upward channel.A huge bull candle with no wicks is showing bull domination ahead of CPI, powered by its Consumer Defensive and Machinery Sectors – Walmart is dominating the charts up 3.70%.A soft report tomorrow could easily send the Dow to 50,000.A strong report however would hurt rate cut prospects and could lead to a retest of Major support (Top candidate being 48,600 and 2H 200-MA).Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,650 to 49,670 Current ATH Resistance46,670 All-Time Highs50,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels49,324 2H 50-Period MA49,000 Psychological Pivot48,400 to 48,800 Major Support (2H MA 200 at 48,670)Psychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView After double top threats and a sluggish price action throughout the past months, the Nasdaq is taking the lead again, brought up by the strong AI stock performance today:AVGO, Oracle, Google, a rebounding Nvidia and many others are pushing the Tech-Heavy index to new highs, also breaking the double-top formed in the past week.Still, traders will need to be cautious regarding short-timeframe bearish divergences.Tomorrow's NFP will be key to monitor whether today's move fakes out or materializes into a real break.Clearing the CPI, staying above 26,860 would point to a test of the October All-Time Highs.Failing to stay above current resistance could lead to a test of the 25,000 Level (25,100 is a key level to watch in this event, things would look bearish below).Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levelsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (breaking?)Session highs 25,877All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support Levels25,646 2H MA 50Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsMain Support 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 went to break its past day record highs yet again, with the new highs set at 6,986.Similarly to the Nasdaq, traders will need to be cautious regarding a so so optimistic divergence forming as momentum slows during the ascent.To mitigate the slow rise however, a consistent uptrend sustains overall resilience in the Market – The S&P could hold well a disappointing CPI tomorrow.Of course, it will depend on how bad it is (if it is).A bullish CPI could well launch the Spoose beyond 7,000: 7,040 and 7,080 are potential profit-taking levels for the Index.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current All-Time High 6,9731.382% Fib-Extension potential resistance at 7,001Support Levels6,913 4H 50-MA Support6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lowsSupport 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and Good Luck for tomorrow's NFP!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Japanese Markets Closed Most Read: 2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityUS stock futures dipped on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the Trump administration is threatening him with a criminal investigation, sparking fears about the central bank's independence.S&P 500 futures dropped 0.6% after Powell disclosed that the Justice Department is demanding records regarding renovations to the Fed’s offices. This legal pressure marks a serious escalation in President Trump's ongoing dispute with Powell over interest rates, as the President pushes for deeper cuts and has even discussed firing the Fed Chair.Conversely, Asian stock markets rose, driven by tech stocks, as investors were reassured by data showing the US labor market is slowing down but not falling apart. Please note that Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.European Session - European Shares Slip European shares dropped on Monday as political clashes in the US made market participants nervous.The STOXX 600 index fell 0.2%, largely because bank stocks tumbled 1.1%. This decline was driven by President Trump's recent proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, which caused shares of Barclays to fall 4.5% and HSBC to dip 1%.Market anxiety also rose after the Trump administration threatened to indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell..In other news, AstraZeneca shares fell slightly after the company was removed from the Nasdaq-100 index, while the French biotech firm Abivax surged nearly 23% after its CEO spoke optimistically about the potential of their new experimental drug.On the FX front, the US dollar dropped sharply on Monday, ending a five-day winning streak as political turmoil in the US prompted investors to sell American assets.The currency fell nearly 0.4% against a basket of major rivals.The Swiss franc was the strongest performer, rising more than 0.5% against the dollar, while the Euro climbed 0.44% to mark its best day in a month.The dollar also weakened slightly against the Japanese Yen and the Chinese Yuan, with the exchange rate for the Yuan dropping to its lowest level in a week.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices broke through the $4,600 barrier for the first time on Monday, setting a new record alongside silver as investors rushed to buy safe assets.This surge is largely driven by the escalating conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve, which has made traders nervous about financial stability.Gold jumped 1.7% to trade around $4,585, after briefly peaking at $4,600.33 earlier in the day.Silver performed even better, climbing over 5% to roughly $84 per ounce, following its own all-time high of $84.60.Read More:CPI is back on time – Markets Weekly OutlookGold (XAU/USD) Slips 1.2% Before 50-Day MA Provides Support. Acceptance Above $4500/oz Remains KeyMonetary policy divergence: Australia & Eurozone CPI and the EUR/AUD tumbleEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts Data is largely thin today with markets likely to focus on developments in the renewed Trump-Fed spat which could dominate and drive market sentiment in the early part of the week.The risk of the dollar dropping significantly is high if there are more signs that the government is trying to control the Federal Reserve. To understand where things are heading, market participants should watch the bond market closely. If bond traders start betting on more interest rate cuts (short-term) or start worrying about the Fed's independence (long-term), the dollar could fall.Specifically, if the difference between short-term and long-term bond yields grows sharply (a "steepening curve"), it would likely signal a drop in the dollar's value.Another event that was expected to help the dollar this week is the Supreme Court's ruling on President Trump's tariffs, which could happen between Tuesday and Thursday. Market participants generally expect the court to rule against the tariffs.However, right now, the market is too nervous about the fight between the White House and the Fed to buy dollars comfortably. Before market participants feel safe buying again, they need clarity on this political conflict.If we end up with a mix of high inflation and a politically weakened Fed, it could cause serious concerns about the economy and lead to a major crash in the dollar's value as the week progresses. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index has finally breached the psychological 10000 mark.Price has pulled back since with bouts of volatility and that shouldn't be a surprise. When price breaches such psychological levels we do tend to see some volatile price swings.The main concerns for bulls at the moment is that the index appears as though we have printed a double-top pattern on the four-hour timeframe as well, a sign that a potential pullback could materialize.Immediate support which may be tested in the near-term include the 9973 and 9943 handles respectively.However, a key level on the four-hour chart for bullish continuation will be the psychological 10000 mark. A break of this level could bring a deeper correction into play.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, January 12, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 9The session welcomed a decent NFP report. While the headline number missed expectations by a marginal 10K, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, effectively easing concerns regarding the downward revisions seen in previous months.Following the release, the US Dollar rallied, but this didn't dampen risk appetite. Stocks pushed higher to conclude the "Freedom Trade" week, with the Nasdaq leading the charge, up 1% on the session.For participants seeking certainty on the US Supreme Court ruling regarding tariffs, patience is still required. Today's "decision day" proved to be a non-event; the market now looks to January 19 in hopes of removing the lingering uncertainty around trade policy.In geopolitics, the situation in Iran is deteriorating rapidly. The regime has severed internet and phone communications for over 24 hours in a desperate bid to calm gigantic protests that could be morphing into a full-blown revolution.Escalation: Unofficial reports suggest casualty numbers have unfortunately surpassed those of the "12-Day War."Regime Stability: Iran President Araghchi has fled to Lebanon with his family, and major carriers like Turkish Airlines have cancelled flights to Tehran.US Stance: The Trump Administration has signaled it is monitoring events closely. Given the rhetoric, a potential intervention over the weekend or early next week cannot be ruled out.This turmoil has put a significant bid under Oil, gapping up to $59 to close the week. With Iran's 5M+ barrels per day capacity at risk and infrastructure potentially compromised, energy markets are pricing in a supply shock. Discover:CPI is back on time – Markets Weekly OutlookNo Decision on Tariffs today – Gold (XAU/USD) and Palladium (XPD/USD)RallyWhy venezuela’s political transition has left oil markets largely unmovedStock Market Heatmap – Widespread Rally except for Healthcare and Softwares zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 9, 2026 Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Oil gapped up at the session open as Iran's events have added even more uncertainty for the commodity, ceding its 1st place to Metals yet again.Gold and Silver are closing very near their huge milestones of $4,500 for the yellow metal and $80 for Silver.Apart from this, EU Stocks have rallied quite strongly as flows head back to other global indexes. The EU 50 (EuroStoxx Index) is trading close to the 6,000 mark – US benchmarks had been leading throughout the week. The Nikkei is actually leading other indexes, up a huge 3.80% to close the week.Cryptos are on the other side of the spectrum, really struggling despite their rally in the beginning of the week.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 9, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar took the lead after the very-decent NFP report and is looking quite strong after this week's trading.On the other side, the Japanese Yen is still struggling after PM Takaichi's call for Snap Elections in Mid-February.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this weekend and Monday's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The week will start with a calm Sunday/Monday session but as the Earnings season comes back and US inflation data is expected to release, it surely won't be the norm.Starting with Asia-Pacific releases, with Australia’s TD-MI inflation gauge offering an early read on price pressures, followed by New Zealand business confidence later on Monday—useful signals for regional growth and RBNZ expectations.Europe then takes the baton with ECB commentary from de Guindos and the Sentix investor confidence survey, providing insight into sentiment at the start of the year. In the U.S., Fed speakers (Bostic and Williams) will be watched for any guidance after recent data volatility.The session rounds out with Japan’s current account figures and UK retail sales, giving a final pulse check on global demand and consumption as markets position for a busier macro week ahead.Safe Trades and a Restful Weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review – Geopolitical Turmoil on the Menu Traders have returned to their desks, and volumes are finally normalizing after a holiday period that was anything but boring. Connecting back to the end-December trading, metals rode a rollercoaster that took many to fresh record highs, setting a bar of high expectations for the new year.The weekly open did not disappoint. The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the Trump Administration over the weekend sent shockwaves through the headlines and ignited a wave of excitement across markets.This reaction is rooted in a clear shift: The revival of the Monroe Doctrine—now dubbed the "Donroe Doctrine"—sets a precedent unseen in decades. When viewing this alongside recent administration moves, such as renaming the Department of Defense to the Department of War and shifting military assets to the Caribbean, the market's angst transforms into a realization of a new reality.As the operation unfolded, markets opened a renewed hype: The Freedom Trade.Newfound excitement surged through the US Stock Market, powering the Dow Jones and traditional sectors beyond year-end records. Investors are betting that "America First" is no longer just an isolationist slogan, but a policy that places US strategic interests above all else—including international norms. zoom_out_map Stock Market per Sector Performance since beginning 2026 – Source: TradingView The Market Consequence? Gigantic rallies in Industrials, Materials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary sectors. The translation is simple: if US External Policy returns to its past century way of operating—global military dominance and strategic shows of strength—traditional sectors stand to benefit the most. The administration is making it clear: the US is not to be reckoned with.The Venezuela capture also extended elsewhere. With threats of intervention now extending to Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, and even Greenland, global heads of state are waking up to defend their interests. The most significant tail risk for sentiment remains the standoff regarding Greenland, which directly challenges the NATO framework.Amidst the geopolitical noise, markets also received crucial economic clues: the US labor picture is not worsening, and the global economy remains resilient, with Global PMIs staying firmly in expansion territory.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes zoom_out_map Weekly Asset Performance – January 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Metals are once again standing on top of the latest geopolitical developments. Gold is up a sneaky 4% on the week, while Silver and Palladium are up above 11%. Discover More:No Decision on Tariffs today – Gold (XAU/USD) and Palladium (XPD/USD)RallyWhy venezuela’s political transition has left oil markets largely unmovedWhat’s Next for the US Dollar After the "Freedom Trade" Surge? – DXY OutlookThe Week Ahead – CPI and Elevated TensionsAsia Pacific Markets – Chinese Trade Data and Australian Employment This week wasn't only interesting for North America.Japan saw renewed strength in wage growth data, which, combined with hawkish speeches from Bank of Japan members and strong approval ratings, led PM Takaichi to announce snap elections for mid-February. Her aim is to consolidate power; a victory would make her the first officially elected female Prime Minister in Japanese history.China also released an improved inflation picture. Recent stimulus and a shift toward more business-friendly regulations have sparked a decent rebound from the preceding deflation. As a result, the CNY (Chinese Yuan) is strengthening aggressively and maintaining a higher path.Looking ahead to next week, markets expect a slew of Chinese data. This includes Trade Reports on Tuesday—which will put hard numbers on the state of a fragmented global trade regime—followed by Retail Sales on Wednesday and GDP data on Thursday. Strong Chinese data tends to have a boosting effect on Antipodean currencies (AUD and NZD).Speaking of the Antipodeans, traders will also welcome Australian Employment numbers. Following last week's better-looking but still very hot CPI data (3.4% y/y), expectations for this report are high. A beat here would likely cement the case for a rate hike at the next RBA meeting on February 3.Europe and UK Markets – UK Employment & GDP mixed with European CPIs The UK moves to the forefront for the upcoming week.Following last month's improved inflation data, traders will look to confirm a smoother rate cut cycle for the Bank of England in 2026, provided UK employment figures don't show unexpected strength. The release is scheduled for the Monday-Tuesday overnight session at 2:00 A.M.Amidst appearances by several BoE members, market participants should also expect the UK monthly GDP numbers on Thursday.For the Eurozone, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos—one of the favorites to replace Christine Lagarde—is expected to speak twice. His comments should be tracked closely by EU traders as he looks to cement his standing.On the data front, attention will turn to inflation, with the French and German CPI releases scheduled for Thursday and Friday, respectively.North American Markets – US CPI and A LOT of Fed Speakers The US will finally receive on-time Inflation data, with the CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Wednesday) releases forming a critical wombo-combo which will be tracked closely by global traders. Scrutiny is particularly high after the last report raised doubts regarding its accuracy; that print came in at 2.7% (vs. 3.4% expected), with the BLS reportedly taking some liberties to fill data gaps caused by the Shutdown.The CPI is expected to land at 0.3% Month-over-Month, a sticky read that would almost certainly dash any hopes for a January rate cut (currently priced at just 10%).Of course, don't forget the US Retail Sales at 8:30, also on Wednesday.Elsewhere, a parade of Fed officials is scheduled to speak. NY Fed President Williams will headline the slate with appearances on Monday and Wednesday. We will also hear from the new 2026 rotation of regional voters, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who is also set to speak on Wednesday.To learn more about the 2026 voting rotation, check out our recent publication:Who Are the Fed Speakers to Watch in 2026? A New Front-Runner for the Fed ChairFinally, keep your notifications on for the geopolitical scene: The developing revolution in Iran could have profound implications for Oil markets and the broader global regime.Next Week's High Tier Economic Events zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Non-Farm Payrolls release at +50K – A slight miss to the +60K ExpectationsThis takes the Unemployment Rate, most favored data since the Bureau of Labor Statistics shutdown affected data, to 4.4%, lower than the 4.5% expectations and lower than the past month.Unrounded numbers show 4.375% vs 4.564% prior. Participation Rate is also slightly lower.Average Hourly Earnings at 0.3% M/M and 3.8% Y/Y, a bit higher than expectations on the Y/Y number.The report provides even less reasons for the Fed to cut rates in end-January.You can get full access to the report right here.Don't Forget that Markets will await the Supreme Court Tariffs Decision at 10:00 A.M.It seems that traders are reacting counterintuitively to a not-so-dovish number with the Dollar falling, Gold rallying.Keep an eye at the end of the hour and the 9:30 Market Open to see if such reactions fade.Check out Market reactions:US Dollar (Dollar Index DXY) zoom_out_map DXY 15 min Chart – January 9, 2026. Source: TradingView Gold (XAU/USD) zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 15 min Chart – January 9, 2026. Source: TradingView Pre-open Dow Jones (Futures and CFD) zoom_out_map Dow Jones 15 min Chart – January 9, 2026. Source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Rebound looks corrective, not impulsive: Silver’s ~6% intraday bounce from US$73.84 appears to be a countertrend rebound after a sharp 10.7% sell-off, with technical patterns suggesting a “dead cat bounce” rather than a trend resumption.Key resistance and downside risk: The US$79.86 level is a critical inflection point. Failure there, followed by a break below US$74.07, would likely open another corrective leg toward US$70.52 and potentially the 50-day moving average zone.Bullish structure intact but delayed: While the long-term secular uptrend remains intact, near-term momentum is fading, and a deeper mean-reversion decline may be needed before the next sustainable bullish impulsive move. The earlier 10.7% drop in Silver (XAG/USD) from its 7 January 2026 high of US$82.77 to yesterday, Thursday, 8 January 2026 low of US$73.84 has started to evolve to see an intraday rally of 6% (low to high) to trade higher at US$78.05 at the time of writing ahead of today’s key risk event; the release of US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for December 2025.Read more:Silver (XAG/USD): A major top or a correction before new highs?NFP Preview: Federal Reserve’s Pivot at a Crossroads, Implications for the US Dollar & Nasdaq 100However, technical analysis suggests that the short-term corrective decline structure of Silver (XAG/USD) may not have ended, with more potential weakness ahead to shape a mean reversion decline towards its 50-day moving average (around US$62.75/61.91 zone) before the start of a new bullish impulsive up move sequence within its long-term secular uptrend phase that remains intact since the 18 March 2020 low.Short-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Reaching the inflection point for another potential down leg zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Silver (XAG/USD) minor trend as of 9 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$79.86 key short-term pivotal resistance on Silver (XAG/USD). A break below US$74.07 increases the odds of another corrective down leg towards the next intermediate support at US$70.52 (also the 20-day moving average) in the first step.Key elements to support the bearish bias Today’s rally from Thursday, 8 January 2026, low of US$73.84 has taken the form of a minor bearish “Ascending Wedge” configuration, which suggests a potential “dead cat bounce”.The hourly Stochastic oscillator has flashed out an impending bearish divergence condition at its overbought region, which implies that the upside momentum of the rebound may be fading.The US$79.86 key short-term resistance (potential inflection level to end the rebound) is defined by the pull-back resistance of the former ascending support from 1 January 2026 low and close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline from 7 January 2026 high to 8 January 2026 low.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance with an hourly close above US$79.86 key short-term resistance invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the US$84.03 key medium-term pivotal resistance (current all-time high of 29 December 2025). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Rallies, Finishing the Week 3.2% Higher Most Read: 2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityAsian stock markets fluctuated within a narrow range on Friday as investors waited cautiously for the upcoming US jobs report and a major Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s tariffs.Despite an initial dip, Japan’s markets ended the day strong. The Nikkei index climbed 1.6% to close at 51,939.89, securing a 3.2% gain for the week. This rally was largely powered by Uniqlo’s parent company, Fast Retailing, which surged nearly 11% after posting strong earnings; this single stock was responsible for more than two-thirds of the Nikkei's total rise for the day.Japanese automakers also had a good day, boosted by a weaker yen (which increases the value of their overseas profits) and a sense of relief regarding trade tensions. Investors were reassured that China’s new export ban on "dual-use" military items would not completely cut off supplies to civilian Japanese companies.Mazda, Toyota, and Honda all posted solid gains. However, not all news was positive; the retailer Aeon slumped nearly 8% after its earnings disappointed investors. Traders are now looking ahead to the earnings report from robot-maker Yaskawa Electric, due later today, which is seen as a key indicator for the health of the manufacturing sector.Please note that Japanese markets will be closed this coming Monday for a holiday.Chinese Inflation Edges Higher, Near 3-Year Highs China's annual inflation rate rose slightly to 0.8% in December 2025, up from 0.7% the previous month. While this is the highest level since early 2023, it still missed the 0.9% rate that experts had predicted.This marks the third month in a row that consumer prices have increased, driven largely by a jump in food costs, specifically fresh vegetables and fruit which saw their biggest rise in over a year.Outside of food, prices remained mostly stable. Clothing and healthcare costs went up, but housing prices dipped slightly, and transportation costs continued to fall. Core inflation (which ignores volatile food and energy prices) held steady at 1.2%, its highest point in nearly two years.Overall, inflation for the entire year was flat, finishing well below the government's target of around 2%.European Session - European Shares Higher as Rio Tinto Eyes Glencore Takeover European stock markets opened higher on Friday, bouncing back from two days of losses caused by weak earnings and political tension.The STOXX 600 index is now on track for its best winning streak since May, largely thanks to a massive 8% jump in shares of Glencore. This surge happened after rival mining giant Rio Tinto announced it is in early talks to buy Glencore, a deal that would create the world's largest mining company. While Glencore stock hit an 18-month high on the news, Rio Tinto's shares dropped 2.2%.The broader European market rose 0.4%, led by gains in energy and mining companies. Other notable movers included Anglo American, which rose 2.4% on news that its deal with Teck Resources is likely to be approved by European regulators.Tech stocks also performed well; ASML gained 2.1% and STMicroelectronics rose nearly 1% after positive revenue reports from industry partner TSMC.Investors are now waiting for the crucial US jobs report later today, which is expected to show that hiring slowed down in December.On the FX front, the US dollar rose slightly on Friday, reaching its highest level in a month, as investors waited for the upcoming jobs report and a major Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's tariffs. The dollar also strengthened against the Japanese Yen for the fourth straight day.In contrast, the Euro dropped to $1.1644 after data showed that German exports unexpectedly fell, even though industrial production actually improved.Other major currencies struggled as well: the British Pound fell 0.2%, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars both dropped, with the "Kiwi" hitting its lowest point since early December.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin fell 1% to around $90,170, and Ether slid nearly 1% to roughly $3,085.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices recovered some of their earlier losses on Friday as investors balanced geopolitical risks against other market factors while waiting for the upcoming U.S jobs report.Although gold dipped slightly to about $4,466 per ounce, it is still on track for a weekly gain of over 2%. High prices have reduced buying in India, but demand in China has increased following the holidays.Other precious metals also performed well: silver rose 0.6% to roughly $77 (heading for a 6% weekly gain), while platinum and palladium also moved higher, with palladium surging over 3% to $1,840.Oil prices climbed for the second day in a row, rising about 1.3% due to concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and unrest in Iran.Brent crude reached $62.82 per barrel and US crude hit $58.52. After a strong jump on Thursday, both types of oil are set to finish the week with gains, marking their third straight weekly increase.Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) Slips 1.2% Before 50-Day MA Provides Support. Acceptance Above $4500/oz Remains KeyEUR/USD Forecast: Technicals and Seasonality Hint at Another Leg to the DownsideMonetary policy divergence: Australia & Eurozone CPI and the EUR/AUD tumbleEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session is set to see the release of Euro Area retail sales data before attention turns to the US session.This week has given us mixed signals about the US economy: the service sector looks good and private hiring is decent, but the number of open jobs has disappointed. While layoffs dropped significantly in December, this is mainly because companies did most of their firing earlier in the year. In fact, for all of 2025, job cuts jumped 58% to over 1.2 million the highest level since 2020.Despite that gloomier yearly picture, traders are feeling a bit more optimistic about today’s jobs report. The unofficial "whisper" expectation among traders has risen to 65,000 new jobs, while the official expert forecast sits at 70,000.However, the most important number to watch today might actually be the unemployment rate, as the Federal Reserve is focused heavily on how many people are out of work. It is expected to improve slightly to 4.5%.If we see that improvement combined with 50,000 to 100,000 new jobs, it will likely be enough to stop the Fed from cutting interest rates in January and keep the chances of a March cut low. My own outlook is for 50,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.5%.Additionally, the US Supreme Court is scheduled to rule on tariffs today. Most experts expect the court to rule against the tariffs, which could actually boost the dollar, as investors believe removing these trade barriers would strengthen the job market and encourage the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index has finally breached the psychological 10000 mark.Price has pulled back since with bouts of volatility and that shouldn't be a surprise. When price breaches such psychological levels we do tend to see some volatile price swings.The one concern for bulls at the moment is that the index is hovering in overbought territory which means a pullback may be imminent.Immediate support which may be tested in the near-term include the 9973 and 9943 handles respectively.However, a key level on the four-hour chart for bullish continuation will be the psychological 10000 mark. A break of this level could bring a deeper correction into play.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, January 9, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 8The session is closing on a mixed note, painting a classic pre-NFP picture: choppy, directionless trading across most asset classes, but with a few very specific stories driving the undercurrents.One thing that stands out is Oil and Energy Markets, which are rising sharply after yesterday's strange correction. The protests in Iran—which are rapidly looking less like civil unrest and more like the early stages of a full-blown Revolution—are reigniting serious concerns about energy supply volatility.The market consensus had been that the Venezuela developments were surprisingly "uneventful" in terms of immediate WTI price spikes (likely due to the long lead time for Venezuelan supply to actually come online). However, Iran is a different beast. With strikes reported on pipelines and gas shortages fueling the anger, the risk of an immediate supply shock is far more tangible as the sanctioned nation remains one of the largest suppliers of Black Gold.This fear is filtering directly into equities. Energy stocks and Industrials are doing the heavy lifting for the major indices today, effectively acting as a hedge against geopolitical escalation – This is leading to the Dow Jones rallying while the Nasdaq retreats.\ Meanwhile, the "debasement" favorites—Metals and Cryptos—remain subdued, perhaps catching their breath or wary of a hot wage number in tomorrow's report.Today effectively serves as the final calm session before what could be a significant storm. The NFP report is less than 16 hours away, and its importance cannot be overstated. After the data distortions of late 2025, this is the first "clean" look at the labor market. The most influential traders and institutional heavyweights are sitting on their hands, waiting for this specific data point to place their full sized first major macro bets of 2026. Discover:Defensive Stocks Rotation ahead of NFP - Index Outlook and NFP Trading LevelsNFP Preview: Federal Reserve’s Pivot at a Crossroads, Implications for the US Dollar & Nasdaq 100Monetary policy divergence: Australia & Eurozone CPI and the EUR/AUD tumbleStock Market Heatmap – Energy and Industrials lead while Healthcare and Tech lag zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 8, 2026 Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Except for Energy and the Dow which led global assets in today's action, the surprising move remained the US Dollar, rising against all its FX peers as its upbeat Layoffs data reassured ongoing economic strength for the global leader.Expect much more volatility in tomorrow's session!A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 8, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX movement was heavily subdued today as traders get ready for tomorrow's NFP report.Nothing to see here but get ready for tomorrow: Will Antipodeans and the Yuan continue to outperform?Interesting developments could take place tomorrow.A weak NFP should see harsh USD correction with a mirror approach in the case of a beat.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The end of the week opens with Asia in focus, as China releases December CPI and PPI. Inflation remains subdued, keeping deflation risks on the radar and reinforcing expectations for continued policy support if the lack of price pressures fail to stabilize – Previous reports have still shown some improvements so this one will be watched closely.The Yuan also has been rising substantially recently, so these developments could prove important particularly for the AUD and NZD!There will be some relatively important data for the Eurozone with Retail Sales releasing at 5:00 A.M. but traders will all be awaiting for the North American Session:The main event comes later with Canada and the U.S. labor reports released simultaneously (8:30 A.M). Canada’s jobs data will be closely watched after November’s strong gains, while the U.S. delivers the full payrolls package alongside wages, participation, and underemployment. Housing data and several Fed speakers follow, before the session wraps up with preliminary Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations—key inputs for rate and FX positioning into the new week.Don't forget to check out our NFP Preview on MarketPulse.Safe Trades and Good Luck for tomorrow's NFP Release!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The "Freedom Trade" hype has finally stalled after a relentless start to the year.Traders are beginning to realize that geopolitical turmoil could deepen, as the Venezuela operation may have opened the door for further—and potentially more tumultuous—US military engagements. This anxiety is compounded by President Trump's recent pledge to increase military spending by $500B for 2026.In an effort to calm tensions, US Secretary of State Rubio has finally accepted a meeting with Greenland, coming at a time when NATO faces its most significant stability challenges in 80 years. Markets will undoubtedly remain on edge regarding these diplomatic shifts going forward.On the economic front, the labor picture is brightening. US layoffs are looking much less concerning than they did through October and November, confirming the strength seen in the ADP data and Jobless Claims reports released earlier this week.However, looking at the market picture for today's concluding session, investors are showing signs of caution. We may see further rotation into defensive sectors as tech layoffs—driven by the deepening implementation of AI—continue to dominate the data. These flows also extend the narrative of overextended valuations that arose throughout the final quarter of 2025.As we begin the New Year, reading between the lines of institutional and big player positioning is essential. The Dow appears to be a heavy favorite for smart money; given how little chatter there is about this trade compared to the crowded consensus in Metals, I wouldn't be surprised to see it outperform.Tomorrow brings a critical test: a finally up-to-date NFP report. While long-awaited since the US Shutdown disrupted timely releases, traders should remain wary—data gaps from the October-November stretch could still result in statistical biases and accuracy issues.Ahead of tomorrow's US jobs report, let's dive into our daily intra-session charts and NFP trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (15:59 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 8, 2026 Healthcare is giving back some of its heavy advantage acquired throughout the beginning of this week, leaving its spot for Consumer Defensives, Farming, Industrial and Energy sectors (WTI Oil is up a sneaky 4% today, check out our recent Oil report to get your trading levels). Read More:NFP Preview: Federal Reserve’s Pivot at a Crossroads, Implications for the US Dollar & Nasdaq 100When the radar goes dark: Navigating the market after the COT report delayMarkets Today: German Factory Orders Surge, Nikkei Slips as Markets Eye NFP Data & Supreme Court Tariff RulingDow Jones 4H Chart – Rejecting Key targets but Holding Strong zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow, up +0.56%, is the clear leader of this early 2026 action, outperforming other Indexes which finish the session lower.Keep an eye on further rotation as time goes and a return to an old geopolitical US regime could also provide a strong boost to industrials for the year to come.Keep a close eye on the 4H 50-period MA (48,900) for NFP trading:Acting as key support in today's rebound, staying above at the weekly close points to further upside for the month, while closing below shows further concerns.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsCurrent ATH Resistance From 49,500 to 49,67650,000 Potential Psychological Resistance49,400 Session highsSupport LevelsChristmas ATH Momentum Pivot & 4H MA 50 – 48,870 (above bullish, below bearish)November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 mini-supportPsychological Support at 48,000Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 20045,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Sidenote on the Dow Jones/Nasdaq Ratio zoom_out_map Dow Jones/Nasdaq Weekly Chart, January 2026 The Dow Jones/Nasdaq ratio reached new all-time lows around October 2025, and with overstretched valuations in Tech and the current themes for 2026, this chart could prove to be a super strong indicator for Stock investing for the year.Watch if the ratio breaks back above the 2.00 Level and what happens when it does.Nasdaq 4H Chart – Double Top concerns? zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView With today's Stock Rotation, Nasdaq is still showing relative weakness compared to other indexes – It's closing down -0.555, a perfect mirror of the DJIA's performance/.Forming a double top in yesterday's action, bulls will have to monitor if this is just a scare ahead of NFP or if it materializes into proper outflows in tech.Explore our detailed analysis for the Nasdaq right here!Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levelsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850Multi-Week Highs 25,833 Recent Double TopAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support Levels25,500 Triangle formation highs (broken)Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsPivot now Support 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart – Mixed but Holding Tight zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 has reached new all-time highs just yestedray and holding right around its recent 6,973 record. Similarly as the Dow, it remains strong above its 50-period Moving Average (6,913) and will stay bullish as long as it remains above.Still, the most bullish case would require a clear push beyond the current highs, leaving for now a more mixed technical outlook ahead of NFP.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current All-Time High 6,9731.382% Fib-Extension potential resistance at 7,001Support Levels6,913 4H 50-MA Support6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lowsSupport 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and Good Luck for tomorrow's NFP!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

RBA's hawkish stance (potential 25bps hike due to sticky core inflation) diverges from ECB's "steady hand" approach (2.0% headline target met).Australian core inflation (3.2%) remains stubbornly above the RBA's target, increasing the probability of a "preventative" rate hike despite a moderation in the headline CPI (3.4%).Monetary policy divergence drove the EUR/AUD cross to a 15-month low (1.7300) as markets price in a potential RBA hike and price out further ECB tightening.Australia CPI moderates, Core inflation keeps RBA on hawkish stance Australia’s latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released this week on January 7, 2026, presents a complex puzzle for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as it prepares for its February board meeting. Headline inflation moderated to 3.4% in the year to November, down from 3.8% in October and notably below the market consensus of 3.6%. While the "undershoot" initially eased immediate fears of a February hike, a closer look at the underlying metrics suggests the RBA remains in a difficult position. The Trimmed Mean, the central bank’s preferred measure of core inflation, only ticked down slightly to 3.2%, remaining stubbornly above the RBA’s 2%-3% target band. Furthermore, stickier components like housing costs (up 5.2%) and a surge in electricity prices (up 19.7% following the rollback of state rebates) indicate that domestic price pressures are far from extinguished.From a policy perspective, this "disinflationary breath" provides the RBA with some optionality, but it likely won't be enough to shift its hawkish stance. While headline figures are moving in the right direction, the persistence of services inflation and a tight labor market mean the risk of a "wait-and-see" approach turning into a policy error remains high. Major lenders like CBA and NAB continue to forecast a 25-basis-point hike to 3.85% in February, arguing that the RBA must act to prevent inflationary expectations from becoming entrenched. According to Bloomberg, the futures market positioning reflects that 22.3% of participants anticipate a 25 bps interest rate hike for the February 3rd 2026 meeting, a drop from 36.0% ahead of yesterday’s CPI release.Consequently, the upcoming December quarter CPI print (due late January) will be the final arbiter; unless it shows a more aggressive softening in core services, the RBA may still opt for a "preventative" hike to ensure inflation returns to the midpoint of its target by 2027.Eurozone CPI hits target, core inflation dictates ECB's 'Steady Hand' The Eurozone’s preliminary CPI data, released on January 7, 2026, marks a significant milestone as headline inflation finally hit the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2.0% target, falling from 2.1% in November. This "bullseye" reading suggests that the aggressive tightening cycle of previous years has successfully anchored price stability. The cooling was largely driven by a sharp contraction in energy prices (down 1.9% year-on-year), which acted as a powerful tailwind. However, the ECB’s "mission accomplished" moment is tempered by core inflation, which remains more resilient at 2.3%. While this is an improvement from the 2.4% seen in late 2025, the persistence of services inflation at 3.4% remains the primary source of anxiety for Frankfurt, reflecting a labor market that is cooling but not yet loose.For the ECB’s Governing Council, this data reinforces a "steady hand" approach for the upcoming February meeting. With headline inflation at target and growth projected to be a modest 1.2% for 2026, there is little immediate pressure to hike further, yet the stubbornness of service costs makes aggressive rate cuts equally unlikely. Markets are currently pricing in a period of prolonged stability, with the deposit rate expected to hold at 2.00% throughout much of the year.Unlike the RBA, which faces a potential hike, the ECB is in a "luxury position" where it can afford to wait and see if the current restrictive stance causes inflation to dip slightly below target before considering any further easing to support the Eurozone’s fragile recovery. zoom_out_map EUR/AUD Weekly chart 2023 - 2026 Source: Tradingview.com Past performance is not indicative of future results Monetary policy divergence drives EUR/AUD to 15-month low The movement in the EUR/AUD cross over the past few weeks has been a textbook example of monetary policy divergence playing out in real-time. Since mid-December, the pair has faced significant downward pressure, sliding from levels near 1.7600 to a 15-month low around 1.7300 as of early January 2026. This trend is driven by two opposing narratives: an ECB that has reached its "inflation bullseye" and an RBA that is still fighting a re-emergence of domestic price pressures. With Eurozone headline inflation hitting the 2.0% target, the market has effectively priced out any further tightening from Frankfurt, leading to a "sell the fact" reaction on the Euro. Conversely, the Australian Dollar has found "extra fuel" from sticky underlying inflation; even though Australia's headline CPI dipped, the persistence of core measures above 3% has shifted market bets toward a potential 25-basis-point hike in February.This widening yield differential is further compounded by a broader shift in global risk appetite. While the Euro has been weighed down by geopolitical jitters—ranging from regional budget dysfunctions to external tensions—the Aussie has benefited from a resilient labor market and improving macro sentiment regarding its major trading partners. Technically, the break below the 1.7400 handle suggests that the path of least resistance for EUR/AUD remains to the downside. Traders are increasingly treating the Aussie as a high-yield play relative to the Euro, creating a "carry-trade" incentive that could see the pair test the 1.70 psychological support level if the RBA follows through with a hawkish shift at its next meeting. Don't miss a beat on the global markets! Register for our weekly news trading webinars where we break down critical inflation data, central bank decisions—like the RBA's potential hike and the ECB's 'steady hand'—and what it all means for major currency pairs.Monthly resistance levels R2 (Resistance 2): 1.79556 – Represents the major high-water mark and secondary resistance for the current period.R1 (Resistance 1): 1.77782 – The immediate barrier to the upside, roughly coinciding with the previous consolidation zone.P (Pivot Point): 1.76296 – The central "neutral" zone; price is currently trading well below this, signaling a bearish bias.Monthly support levels S1 (Support 1): 1.74522 – The price has recently breached this level to the downside, turning it from former support into potential "new" resistance.S2 (Support 2): 1.73036 – This is the critical target for the current move. As shown on the chart, the price (1.73846) is currently gravitating toward this floor. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Retreats, Softbank Down 7.6% Most Read: 2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityStock markets in Taiwan and South Korea dropped from their record highs on Thursday because investors started to worry that Artificial Intelligence (AI) companies were becoming too expensive. This change in mood hurt major tech companies, with Samsung falling 1.6% and TSMC losing its earlier gains.Japanese markets also had a bad day, falling for the second time in a row as traders sold stocks to lock in their recent profits. The optimism from the start of the year is fading due to growing concerns about the global economy and politics, specifically China's new ban on sending certain supplies to Japan.As a result, big Japanese tech companies like SoftBank and Tokyo Electron saw their share prices tumble, and major banks also lost value.German Factory Orders Surge, Swiss Inflation Ticks Higher Germany's factory orders surprised everyone by jumping 5.6% in November 2025, completely defying predictions of a drop. This marks the third month of growth in a row and the strongest performance in nearly a year.The surge was driven mainly by massive orders for metal products and military/transport vehicles (like ships and trains). Demand was strong everywhere, rising significantly from both domestic buyers and international customers in the Eurozone. Even without counting these huge one-time contracts, regular orders still grew steadily.Meanwhile, consumer prices in Switzerland barely budged, rising just 0.1% in December compared to last year. This was exactly what experts expected. While things like alcohol, tobacco, and restaurant meals got a bit more expensive, the cost of food, clothes, and transport fell, keeping overall inflation very low. Core inflation (excluding volatile food and energy) rose slightly to 0.5%, showing that price pressures remain very weak.European Session - European Stocks Cautious, Defence Sector Gains European stock markets dropped further on Thursday as investors paused to rethink their strategies following a strong start to the year.The STOXX 600 index fell 0.2%, slipping back slightly after reaching a historic milestone earlier in the week. While the market isn't in full panic mode over the situation in Venezuela, tension is lingering; the US has seized two oil tankers and announced plans to manage Venezuela's oil revenue indefinitely, keeping traders cautious.This uncertainty fueled a rally in defense stocks, which climbed to a record high for the fifth day in a row.In contrast, shares of AB Foods (owner of Primark) crashed over 10% after the company warned of falling profits due to weak sales, a situation made worse by news that UK regulators are speeding up a probe into its deal to buy the bread maker Hovis.On the FX front, the US dollar is rising for the third day in a row, but investors are acting carefully as they wait for Friday's important employment report. The main index for the dollar went up a little bit to 98.80, recovering some ground after a bad performance last year.Most rival currencies weakened; the Euro dropped to $1.1670, continuing its recent slide, and the Australian dollar fell back from the 15-month high it reached earlier this week.However, the Japanese Yen rose slightly as nervous traders avoided making big bets until the new economic numbers were released.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices stabilized on Thursday following two days of losses, as investors weighed the impact of a massive buildup in US fuel supplies against the latest political developments in Venezuela.Both Brent and U.S. crude futures inched up by just 6 cents, holding near $60 and $56 per barrel, respectively.In contrast, gold prices slipped 0.4% to approximately $4,435 per ounce, pressured by a stronger US dollar. Traders appear to be sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the upcoming US jobs report to better understand the future of interest rates and how the US standoff with Venezuela might evolve.Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) Slips 1.2% Before 50-Day MA Provides Support. Acceptance Above $4500/oz Remains KeyEUR/USD Forecast: Technicals and Seasonality Hint at Another Leg to the DownsideBitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook: Acceptance Above $95000 Needed for Bulls to Seize the InitiativeEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session is set to see the release of a host of mid-tier data in a short while. The data includes the release of the November PPI and unemployment rate.Moving into the US session, market participants are focused on US employment data, specifically the "Challenger" report on job cuts and the weekly jobless claims figures.The US dollar has remained surprisingly strong despite falling oil prices, which are dropping as markets take President Trump's plan to increase Venezuelan oil supply seriously. However, this dollar strength might be limited; once the major monthly jobs report is out of the way on Friday, low oil prices could finally drag the currency down.Additionally, the US. Supreme Court is scheduled to rule on tariffs tomorrow. Most experts expect the court to rule against the tariffs, which could actually boost the dollar, as investors believe removing these trade barriers would strengthen the job market and encourage the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index has finally breached the psychological 10000 mark.Price has pulled back since with bouts of volatility and that shouldn't be a surprise. This morning we saw a pretty close retest of the 10000 psychological level before bouncing.The one concern for bulls at the moment is that the index is hovering in overbought territory which means a pullback may be imminent.Immediate support which may be tested in the near-term include the 9973 and 9943 handles respectively.However, a key level on the four-hour chart for bullish continuation will be the psychological 10000 mark. A break of this level could bring a deeper correction into play.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, January 8. 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Nasdaq 100 lagging but constructive: Recent underperformance reflects sector rotation rather than trend damage, with the index still within 2% of its all-time high and showing signs of bullish consolidation.Bullish breakout setup forming: Holding above 25,350 support keeps the near-term bias positive, while a break above 25,760/25,830 would open upside toward 26,107 and the record high.Momentum turning supportive: Higher lows, a rebound above key moving averages, and improving RSI dynamics reinforce the case for a fresh impulsive up move. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 has been the laggard in the past five trading sessions among the major US stock indices due to sector rotation towards the laggards (Dow Jones Industrial Average and small-caps Russell 2000) due to overvaluation fears in Artificial Intelligence (AI) related mega-cap technology stocks that are heavily weighted in the Nasdaq 100The Nasdaq 100 is still trailing around 2% below from its current all-time high printed in late October 2025, whereas the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have rallied to fresh all-time highs on Tuesday, 6 January 2025, with the Russell 2000 just a whisker of 0.6% away from its record high reached on 11 December 2025.Interestingly, technical analysis suggests that the Nasdaq 100 is now forming a potential bullish consolidation to kickstart a fresh impulsive up move sequence.Short-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Bullish breakout from 8/12 December 2025 range top zoom_out_map Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend as of 8 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) 25,350 key short-term pivotal support to watch on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) to maintain the potential bullish bias.A clearance above 25,760/25,830 triggers a minor bullish breakout towards the next intermediate resistances at 26,107 and 26,290 (current all-time high area of 30 October 2025) in the first step.Key elements to support the bullish bias Recent price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index have retested the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel twice (18 December 2025 and 2 January 2026) and formed a higher low with a reintegration back above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to stage a rebound today after a retest of a key ascending trendline support that formed an earlier bullish divergence condition at its oversold region on 2 January 2026.Alternative trend bias (1 to days) A break with an hourly close below 25,350 key short-term support invalidates the bullish tone for another round of choppy corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports of 25,133, 24,870, and 24,700/24,580. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Ever since correcting from its 100.00 peak in mid-November, the US Dollar has been locked in a volatile, multi-directional chop.After a rough ride throughout 2025—particularly the first half—the Greenback has struggled to find conviction in either direction.A 10% correction in the world's primary reserve currency was never likely to be a straight line to new decade lows.While dedollarization was the prominent narrative of last year, reality is setting in.With the US economy still outperforming its peers, American firms dominating global equities, and the Fed remaining persistently reluctant to cut rates, participants are realizing that divorcing the Greenback is easier said than done.As we suggested around mid-October, the sharp correction from 110.00 to 97.00 on the Dollar Index was indeed followed by a period of consolidation, with price action settling closer to the current 98.00 to 100.00 range. zoom_out_map US Dollar Performance against other FX Majors in 2025 – Source: TradingView Following the capture of Maduro and this week's explosive market open, the USD initially gave up some of its late-December rebound as global assets, particularly Stocks went ballistic.However, a quintessential theme for FX and global trading appears to be developing: the return of "US Freedom" could trigger a fresh wave of demand for the reserve currency.Between economic resilience and the projection of military strength to protect political interests, the US reasserting itself on the global stage is being perceived positively by traders.We will now dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY) to decipher what the price action is hinting at and what we can expect in 2026. Discover:Markets Today: Euro Area Inflation Cools, Silver Peaks Above $80/oz, Gold Retreats Ahead of Key US Data ReleasesS&P 500 and Dow Jones All-time Highs – Stocks Continue the 2026 Freedom RallyChart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is losing bullish momentum below US$4,500, bearish reversal nextDollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map DXY Daily Chart. January 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar has held its 97.00 to 100.00 range almost to the T.What was perceived as surprising strength throughout October, as the Dollar was strengthening during the shutdown, was just mean-reversion move from a support bounce.So what about now? The latest daily correction phase between 100.40 (Nov Highs) to the ~98.00 Handle marks a continued backlog to dollar demand.The idea here is that with Dollar sellers failing to push the Index to its Range lows (96.00 to 97.00 Support Zone), some underlying strength is assisting the Dollar, hinting at higher chance of an upside breakout.Still, some factors could imminently influence the Dollar so keep an eye on reactions to:Further menaces to other countries: An Iran intervention would be bullish for the USD while invading Greenland could lead to a major selloff.The Supreme Court rejecting tariffs would be a positive for the USD but may be a non-event if the Trump Administration continuesIf the Labor picture suddenly degrades and/or inflation confirms to be soft, more downside can largely be expected. More on this on Friday morning (8:30 – NFP report)4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map DXY 4H Chart. January 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking closer to the intraday timeframe, bulls are grabbing the advantage by holding strong demand at the upward trendline.Having broken the downward channel, higher action could make further sense.Still, failing to breach Monday highs at 98.85 should lead to rangebound actionLevels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.50 to 98.80 Intraday Pivot Zone98.82 (200-4H Moving Average)Pivot turned Resistance 99.25 to 99.50100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highsSupport Levels98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips) – Recent reboundDecember Lows 97.7597.40 to 97.80 August Range SupportMini-support 98.502025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 Support1H Chart zoom_out_map DXY 1H Chart. January 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView The 1H Timeframe confirms the bullish action as buyers have breached both the 50 and 200-Hour Moving Averages, now acting as support.Breaking the Monday highs at 98.85 would then not see much resistance until 99.30 to 99.50 – In this scenario, look for USD selling FX positions.On the other hand, rejecting the Monday highs could trigger nice rangebound conditions in EUR/USD or USD/JPY. As bulls are leading an ongoing buying attempt, keep a close eye to the reactions.Safe Trades and Happy New Year!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares Stall Most Read: 2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityThe global stock market rally stalled in Asia on Wednesday, with Japan's Nikkei index dropping roughly 1% as investors sold shares to lock in profits after a record-breaking start to the year.Market sentiment was also hurt by rising tensions between China and Japan; China has banned the export of "dual-use" items materials like rare earths that can be used for both civilian and military technology to Japan. This news dragged down major manufacturers, with automakers like Toyota and Honda falling over 2% and chip-maker Advantest dropping 4.4%.However, there were some big winners: Toyo Engineering, which develops technology to extract rare earths, surged nearly 20% on the news of the ban, and Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical jumped about 19% after announcing a $2.55 billion plan to take the company private.Euro Area Inflation Slows, German Retail Sales Fall Inflation in the Euro area cooled to 2.0% in December 2025, its lowest level since August, perfectly hitting the European Central Bank's target. This milestone suggests that interest rates will likely remain steady for the near future.The drop was largely driven by falling energy costs and slower price increases for services and manufactured goods, though food and tobacco prices did rise slightly faster than before. "Core" inflation, which ignores volatile items like fuel and food, also improved to a four-month low of 2.3%, beating analyst expectations.Across the region, inflation slowed down in Germany, France, and Spain, while Italy was the outlier with a small increase.German retail sales unexpectedly dropped by 0.6% in November 2025, marking the first monthly decline since August. This weak performance fell short of the 0.2% increase that experts had predicted and reversed the gains seen in the previous month.The primary cause for the slump was a sharp 1.9% decrease in food sales, which outweighed a small 0.3% rise in non-food sales and a solid 0.9% boost in online shopping. Compared to the same time a year ago, retail growth slowed to 1.1%, down from 1.6% in October.Despite this stumble late in the year, early estimates suggest that total retail sales for 2025 still grew by 2.4% overall.European Session - European Stocks Take a Breather European stock markets took a break from their recent record-breaking rally on Wednesday, holding steady as investors reviewed the latest updates on the US and Venezuela.The main European index rose just a fraction, while German stocks added roughly 0.4%; meanwhile, markets in Spain and Italy stayed flat after hitting all-time highs yesterday. Oil companies like Shell and BP saw their share prices drop after President Trump announced a deal to import $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude, which is expected to increase the amount of oil available globally.In other news, Nestle shares fell 1.2% as the company recalled some baby formula due to contamination fears. Traders are now waiting for a key report on US job openings (JOLTS) later today to help predict where the economy is heading next.On the FX front, the US dollar remained mostly steady on Wednesday as traders waited for key economic reports that will likely determine future interest rates, which investors currently view as more important than recent political conflicts.The overall value of the dollar rose slightly to 98.63, while the Euro dropped a small amount to $1.1676, continuing its decline from the previous day. The dollar also weakened slightly against the Japanese Yen.Meanwhile, the Australian dollar reached its highest level since late 2024 following an inflation report that suggested interest rates there might go up soon, while the New Zealand dollar traded at $0.5783.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices dropped on Wednesday as a stronger US dollar and changing views on the situation in Venezuela made the metal less attractive to buyers.Gold fell 0.8% to roughly $4,461 per ounce, moving further away from the record high it set in late December.Other precious metals suffered even bigger losses: silver dropped 2.3%, palladium slid 4.5%, and platinum plunged 6%, reversing earlier gains.At the same time, oil prices also declined after President Trump announced a deal to import $2 billion worth of Venezuelan oil.This news, which suggests an increase in oil supplies for the US, pushed Brent crude down to $60.59 per barrel and US crude to $56.86.Read More:Chart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is losing bullish momentum below US$4,500, bearish reversal nextEUR/USD Forecast: Technicals and Seasonality Hint at Another Leg to the DownsideBitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook: Acceptance Above $95000 Needed for Bulls to Seize the InitiativeEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session is quiet moving forward with most of the data already released this morning.Moving into the US session, unless the US issues new threats against Greenland or takes further action in Venezuela, investors are expected to stop focusing on politics and turn their attention back to economic data for the rest of the week.Today's report on the service sector is predicted to be weak, but the real market movers will likely be the ADP private employment figures and the JOLTS report on job openings. Since the ADP report has come in lower than expected seven out of the last ten times, and because the job market appears to be cooling, there is a strong chance that these upcoming reports will be negative, which would likely drag the value of the US dollar down. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index has finally breached the psychological 10000 mark.Price has pulled back since with bouts of volatility and that shouldn't be a surprise. When price breaches such psychological levels we do tend to see some volatile price swings.The one concern for bulls at the moment is that the index is hovering in overbought territory which means a pullback may be imminent.Immediate support which may be tested in the near-term include the 9973 and 9943 handles respectively.However, a key level on the four-hour chart for bullish continuation will be the psychological 10000 mark. A break of this level could bring a deeper correction into play.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, January 7, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 6Today showed another wave of the debasement trade, but with a distinct twist.Metals, stocks, and cryptocurrencies all exploded higher at the open, riding the momentum of recent inflows. However, the unity fractured by mid-session. While metals held their ground, cryptos gave up their early leads, fading significantly as the day progressed.Meanwhile, the US Dollar, which had struggled yesterday, staged a comeback, returning right back to yesterday's highs. This creates a complex picture where the Greenback is rising alongside hard assets like Gold and Platinum—a rare dynamic often signaling acute stress or aggressive repositioning.The "Freedom Trade" seems to be gaining serious traction. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are rallying to fresh All-Time Highs, uplifted by broad participation across all sectors. It appears the US is regaining confidence from its investor base following the successful Maduro capture, with the market pricing in a premium for American geopolitical assertiveness.It will be interesting to see if this momentum can sustain itself through the week, or if traders will begin to trim risk as they prepare for a potentially volatile NFP session on Friday.Stock Market Heatmap – Semiconductors and Healthcare rule zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 5, 2026 Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today was quite volatile. Keep an eye on the different up and down moves around Cryptos while other assets held a more consistent trading day.Crypto won't be boring assets anytime soon.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 6, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The AUD exploded against other majors today as FX traders get prepared for a hawkish CPI report tonight, coming up shortly after the session close.The US Dollar also rebounded strongly, recovering most of its past day drop against most majors.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The evening session begins a very important phase for FX Markets, with a quintessential Australian CPI report coming up in a few hours.Tomorrow's session should also be quite a ride.To begin with, late night (and Asian/European) traders will start a long session with German Retail Sales and Unemployment figures at 02:00 A.M. and 03:55 A.M. ET. Decent stability is expected with Retail Sales projected at 0.2%, but it still shouldn't take the spotlight away from the inflation data dropping shortly after.The 05:00 A.M. ET stretch releases the heavy-hitting Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). Traders will be glued to the Core HICP (YoY), expected at 2.4%, to see if the ECB has room to breathe or if they’ll need to keep the pressure on.The US Data will start with a few key data releases.08:15 A.M. E.T. starts the North American session with the ADP Employment Change, expected at 45K. It’s a significant jump from the previous -32K, but it is a pale figure to what's coming later in the morning.ISM Services PMI is finally releasing, expected at 52.3, alongside the JOLTS Job Openings projected at 7.64M, all releasing at 10:00 A.M.US Factory Orders are also on deck, with a steep -1.2% contraction expected.Get ready for the event with our preview of the labor market health right here.Canadian Dollar traders will also be awaiting the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index at 10:00 A.M. ET, which is expected to show a recovery toward 49.5.Safe Trades and Happy New Year!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cryptocurrencies have been getting whiplashed, with investors noting a stark contrast: despite immense growth in Stock Indexes and Metals, the year-over-year performance for Bitcoin in 2025 was actually negative. zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Market Performance in 2025 – Source: TradingView But this headline carries a significant bias.First, year-over-year change fails to capture the total volatility and opportunity within the period. Bitcoin, for example, surged from $75,000 to a new record high of $126,000—a 70% rise from trough to peak. Traders with a solid game plan who capitalized on these swings fared far better than the yearly close suggests. It is also worth remembering that the crypto pioneer is still up a staggering 480% since its 2023 lows and 123% since 2024, despite finishing 2025 down 3% overall.In a similar vein, Ethereum experienced high-volatility flows, rallying 250% to reach new all-time highs of $4,950 in August before correcting. While it closed the year down roughly 3% compared to January 1st, 2025, it remains up 260% from its 2023 lows. With the implementation of the Fusaka upgrade—enabling significantly cheaper transaction costs and higher efficiency—the second-largest cryptocurrency could see a fundamental "demand floor" that would act as cushion against more downside. zoom_out_map Current Session in Cryptos – January 6, 2026 (10:30). Source: FInviz Furthermore, Bitcoin wasn't the only game in town. Several altcoins posted remarkable gains in 2025, decoupling from the majors.Binance Coin (BNB): Up 40%.Monero (XMR): Up 136%.ZCash (ZEC): Up a massive 860%.The most successful traders were those who leveraged these swift gains, cashing out at relative highs before re-entering at the recent lows.The question now is where things go in 2026. Risk appetite remains stable, so in the absence of violent volatility, regular discounted cash flows into cryptocurrencies make sense at these levels. You can check our Solana, for instance, could present an interesting alternative, currently trading 50% off its lows.Let's dive right into the Daily Charts and technical levels for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL).A quick Glance at the Crypto Market Cap from 2019 to 2026 zoom_out_map Total Crypto Market Cap Weekly Chart, rebounding from its Channel lows – Source: TradingView Keep an eye on if the rebound on the higher timeframe upward channel triggers further buying from here.Overall, the Crypto Market remained very resilient at its lower bound.Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin is getting back on a bullish momentum but faces a key test at its 50-Day Moving Average, currently at $94,180.Closing above on the daily would further confirm its breakout beyond its harsh October downtrend. The main Crypto is still not out of its neutral outlook until it breaches the $100,000 level again.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$88,000 to $93,000 major support turned PivotCurrent Weekly Lows $89,340$85,000 mid-term Support (+/- $1,500)$75,000 Key long-term supportResistance Levels:$94,170 50-Day MA$98,000 to $100,000 Resistance$104,000 200-Day MAResistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Ether is actually the most bullish-looking crypto out of all major altcoins., also getting a fundamental boost from its recent upgrade.Having breached the $3,000 key psychological level and holding above, buyers are forming a bull uptrend above the 50 and 200-Day Moving average – Watch how the bullish trendline holds.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:50 and 200 Day Moving Averages$2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (November lows)$2,620 Session and weekly Lows$2,100 June War support$1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$3,500 (+/- $50) Resistance and Descending Channel highs$3,800 September lows$4,000 to Dec 2024 top Higher timeframe Resistance zone$4,950 Current new All-time highsSolana (SOL) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Solana (SOL) Daily Chart, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The rebound in Solana is looking very decent but still faces key hurdles ahead.With the price action getting bullish from a 3-month consolidation, bulls will want to break above $150 to relaunch bullish prospects and hold the upward trendline.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:Main Support $125 to $130Weekly lows $123$100 to $115 Main supportResistance Levels:$140 to $150 Major Pivot (testing)Channel highs and October Pivot resistance $165 to $170$180 to $190 ResistancePsychological level $200 to $205$253 Cycle highsSafe Trades and Happy New Year!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: 2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityEUR/USD has had an interesting start to 2026. US Dollar strength has kept the pair on a downward trajectory from December 24, 2025 highs around the 1.1800 handle.Since then, EUR/USD has fallen around 140 pips to a low of around the 1.1660 level yesterday with the potential for further downside still a possibility.US Dollar Seasonality to Play a Role? Despite all the talk and concern around the US Dollar, January is historically a positive month for the greenback. With that in mind, this could work in favor of another leg to the downside for EUR/USD.The US Dollar has risen at the start of the year and this week as well, but this was largely attributed to a spike in haven demand after the US/Venezuela tensions over the weekend.I do expect the US dollar to gain a bit of strength in the near-term and this feeds in to the trade setup for EUR/USD.My reasoning is simply down to seasonality as well as the fact that market participants seem too relaxed about global political conflicts right now; if tensions suddenly flare up again, especially in Latin America or Greenland, risky investments could crash, causing traders to rush back to the safety of the dollar.Technical Analysis on EUR/USD Let us start with the technical picture on the four-hour chartEUR/USD has broken the ascending wedge pattern which had been in play since Mid-November.The breakout of the wedge pattern should lead to a drop of around 160 pips.The pair has already dropped about a 100-pips before a pullback of around 80-pipsThe price is now at the 100-day MA which is providing resistance and could be the start of the next leg to the downside.EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, January 6, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com Dropping down to the one-hour chart below and for those looking for a better risk-to-reward there may be another opportunity to get involved.A break below the red zone on the chart below with a potential retest of the zone could provide a tighter stop loss for those looking to get involved.At present, only a four-hour candle close above the 1.1750 handle would lead me to re-evaluate the setup as that would mean a change in structure has taken place and the par may break to the upside and test recent highs around the 1.1800 handle.EUR/USD One-Hour Chart, January 6, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares Hit Record HIghs Most Read: 2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityAsian stock markets reached new record highs on Tuesday, following a strong performance in the United States where the Dow Jones index hit its own all-time peak.The MSCI index of emerging Asia equities rose by 1.1% to its highest level ever, led largely by Japanese stocks which jumped 1.6%.Markets in Taiwan and South Korea also rallied to set new records.Meanwhile, Chinese markets performed very well, with Hong Kong rising 1.8% and mainland Chinese stocks reaching their highest prices since 2015.French Inflation Rate Slows France's annual inflation rate cooled down to 0.8% in December 2025, reaching its lowest level in seven months and coming in lower than experts predicted. This drop was mainly caused by energy prices falling sharply, particularly for fuel.However, this was partially balanced out by rising food costs, especially for fresh produce, while the prices for services and tobacco remained steady. Compared to the previous month, overall prices rose just a tiny bit (0.1%) due to higher holiday transport costs, but this increase was still smaller than expected.When measured by broader European standards, the inflation rate was even lower at 0.7%.European Session - European Stocks Hold Near Record-Highs European stock markets remained stable on Tuesday, maintaining the momentum that pushed them past a major milestone the day before.Despite rising political tensions involving the US and Venezuela, investors remain confident in the economy, with mining companies leading the gains thanks to higher precious metal prices.The main European index rose slightly, while markets in Germany and Spain hit all-time record highs, supported by hopes that government spending in Germany will boost the region's growth. Traders are now waiting for important manufacturing and inflation reports from across Europe and the US to see if the good news continues.Meanwhile, shares of the delivery company InPost jumped nearly 15% after it announced it might be bought out.On the FX front, the US dollar dropped slightly for a second straight day on Tuesday as anxiety over US military actions in Venezuela began to fade.Global stock markets rallied, supported by Federal Reserve officials hinting at more supportive interest rate policies, which dampened demand for the dollar.While the overall dollar index fell by 0.1%, other currencies took advantage of the weakness; the British Pound and Euro rose slightly, while the Australian dollar had a particularly strong day, reaching its highest level in over a year.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped on Tuesday because investors expect global supply to outweigh demand, especially now that the US has captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a move markets believe could eventually lead to more Venezuelan oil exports.Brent crude fell slightly to around $61.48 a barrel, while US crude dipped to $58.00.In contrast, precious metals had a strong day.Gold rose 0.4% to a one-week high, driven by hopes for lower interest rates and investors seeking "safe" assets during the political unrest.Silver jumped 2.8%, while platinum and palladium gained roughly 2% each, continuing the massive rallies these metals began in 2025.Read More:Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook: Acceptance Above $95000 Needed for Bulls to Seize the InitiativeAUD/USD Forecast: Up 5% since November 2025, what’s next?2026 Stock Indices Outlook: Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng poised to outperformEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session is quiet moving forward with most of the data already released this morning.Moving into the US session and the only data release will be the non-market-moving final S&P PMIs for December. Attention will likely be on the Fed side where we’ll hear from Barkin (hawkish-leaning, non-voter) and Miran (ultra-dove, voter) who could shake up some volatility.A side note around the US dollar, is that January is usually a positive month for the greenback based on history and seasonality. Keep that in mind as you look into possible trade setups involving the US Dollar. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index has finally breached the psychological 10000 mark.Price has pulled back since with bouts of volatility and that shouldn't be a surprise. When price breaches such psychological levels we do tend to see some volatile price swings.The one concern for bulls at the moment is that the index is hovering in overbought territory which means a pullback may be imminent.Immediate support which may be tested in the near-term include the 9973 and 9943 handles respectively.However, a key level on the four-hour chart for bullish continuation will be the psychological 10000 mark. A break of this level could bring a deeper correction into play.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, December 6, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.