There are six Fed officials speaking on Thursday, October 16, 2025, including WallerBofA sees China deflation easing slowly, CPI likely to stay negative in Q4ICYMI: US to expand stakes in key firms to counter China’s industrial policy, Bessent saysEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde and side kick Lane both speak on ThursdayBoA say China loan demand weak, infrastructure may lift Q4 credit. But, pushing on string?Governor of the Bank of Canada Macklem is scheduled to speak on Thursday, October 16, 2025Australia’s jobless rate jumps to 4.5%, fuelling RBA rate-cut bets for November - recapBOJ's Tamura says the Bank should lift rates closer towards neutralCentral bank heads from Japan, China, South Korea held a three way meetingPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0968 (vs. estimate at 7.1186)ANZ forecast gold to US$4600 and silver to US$57.50Bessent: Administration expects that Japan stop importing Russian energyAustralian September unemployment rate 4.5% (expected 4.3%)ICYMI: Trump says India will stop buying Russian oil, vows to pressure China nextJapan machinery orders +1.6% y/y (expected +4.8%)Japan fin min Kato on FX: Will monitor for excessive fluctuations and disorderly movementsBank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida is expected to speak Thursday, October 16, 2025Japanese politics - LDP head Takaichi will hold a meeting with a minor party todaySterling faces double hit from BoE rate-cut risk and fiscal fragility, analysts warnGoldman see AI investmnt sustainable, future productivity gains far outweigh current capexBarclays sees 2% U.S. growth pace through 2026, flags risks from tariffs and jobsTrump admin eyes over 10,000 federal job cuts amid shutdown, CNBC reportsNew Zealand data - Food Price Index (September) -0.4% m/m (prior also +0.3%)A senior IMF official has urged the BoJ to keep its monetary policy looseRBA Kent says within neutral estimates, neutral not good guide to near-term path right nowOil - private survey of inventory shows a HUGE headline crude oil build vs draw expectedJPMorgan expects easing in US/China trade tensions at South Korea APEC talksinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 15 Oct: USD falls, but China remains a concern.RBA Gov Bullock: Data giving us time to think whether there is more easing to come or notAsia session wrap – RBA signals, soft jobs shock, yen steadies. It was an eventful session for Australia-watchers, with a series of central bank comments followed by a surprisingly weak labour report that sharply shifted rate cut expectations.Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock struck a measured tone late in the U.S. day, suggesting little urgency for another rate cut at the Bank’s upcoming November 3–4 meeting. She noted improving consumption trends and did not sound alarmed about the slight cooling in labour market conditions. Soon after, Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said financial conditions are beginning to loosen following this year’s three rate cuts, with credit now flowing more easily to households and businesses. He acknowledged that while policy is less restrictive, the outlook remains uncertain and the RBA will continue reassessing its stance as new data arrive.That data came quickly. And it was a jolt. September’s employment report showed the jobless rate jumping to 4.5%, the highest since late 2021 and above the 4.3% expected, while net employment rose just 14,900 versus forecasts of +17,000. The rise in participation drove the unemployment rate above the RBA’s projected year-end peak, marking a clear loosening in labour conditions. Markets reacted swiftly: a November rate cut is now priced above 75%, compared with roughly 30% before the release. The Australian dollar slumped around 0.4% to US$0.6485 or so, three-year bond futures rallied, and the ASX 200 touched record highs on renewed easing bets. Traders caution that the final call will depend on Q3 CPI data due October 29, but inflation would need to reaccelerate meaningfully to prevent a November move. The labour report effectively undercuts recent RBA messaging that the easing cycle was nearly done.Japan: Finance Minister Shunichi Kato reiterated his familiar warnings against excessive currency volatility, saying Tokyo will “thoroughly monitor” FX markets in coordination with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with whom he reaffirmed commitments to exchange-rate stability. Bessent said separately that the yen should settle at an appropriate level if the Bank of Japan maintains sound policy. The comments, coupled with hawkish remarks from BoJ Board Member Toyoaki Tamura, who again called for rate hikes amid rising inflation risks, supported the yen. USD/JPY fell to around 150.50.China: China headlines were dominated by state-backed investment themes. Shenzhen launched a 5 billion yuan semiconductor fund to target weak points in the domestic chip supply chain, including computing power, storage, optoelectronics, sensors, and advanced manufacturing equipment. Separately, analysts expect central and state-owned enterprises to boost investment in Q4 as cash flow improves. SOE revenues rose 0.2% year-to-date through August — the first annual growth this year — while China State Grid alone invested over 420 billion yuan in fixed assets through September, with full-year spending expected to top 650 billion yuan for the first time.FX and commodities: The U.S. dollar weakened broadly, with the yen, euro, sterling, kiwi, loonie, and franc all firmer. The Aussie underperformed following the weak jobs data. Gold tested back above US$4,240, benefiting from the softer greenback and rising expectations of policy easing. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) +0.98%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -0.21%Shanghai Composite +0.34%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) +0.9% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Another barrage of Fed speakers on the line up for Thursday, October 16, 2025.The times below are GMT/US Eastern time format. 1400/1000 Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak virtually before the 2025 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. 1300/0900 Fed Board Governor Stephen Miran is set to participate in a conversation before the 2025 Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting. 2015/1615 Miran is also expected to participate in a conversation before the Semafor Fall 2025 World Economy Summit. 1300/0900 Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller is expected to speak on the economic outlook before the Council on Foreign Relations' C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics. Economists want Waller as new Fed Chair. But, sry Chris, Trump is just not that into you. 1200/0800 Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Association for Business Economics. 2200/1800 Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is set to participate in a town hall hosted by Elevate Rapid City. 1300/0900 Federal Reserve Board member Michael Barr will speak on "Stablecoins" before 2025 DC Fintech Week This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of America said China’s September inflation data showed early signs of easing deflation, though overall price pressures remain subdued amid weak domestic demand.Consumer prices (CPI) fell 0.3% year-on-year in September, while producer prices (PPI) declined 2.3%, both matching BofA’s forecasts and showing a narrower contraction than in August. The bank attributed the improvement partly to base effects and a sharp rise in gold prices, which helped offset further food price declines.BofA said targeted policy measures and selective industry support have moderated deflationary pressures, but China’s economy continues to face structural challenges as supply growth outpaces demand. The bank expects PPI deflation to ease gradually in the coming months thanks to the favourable base and efforts to rein in overcapacity. However, with consumption momentum still weak, CPI inflation is likely to stay negative through the fourth quarter. ---BofA’s outlook suggests China’s deflationary trend is moderating but not reversing, reinforcing expectations for continued policy support. The call points to limited upside for domestic demand and subdued pricing power for manufacturers heading into 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Trump administration plans to expand government ownership in strategically important industries as part of efforts to counter China’s state-driven economic model and export restrictions, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday.Speaking at a CNBC event, Bessent said Beijing’s tightening controls over rare earth minerals and magnets highlight the need for the U.S. to achieve greater self-sufficiency in critical materials or deepen cooperation with trusted allies. “When you’re facing a non-market economy like China, you have to exercise industrial policy,” he said.Bessent outlined a shift under President Trump from subsidies toward direct equity stakes in key firms, including Intel, MP Materials, and Trilogy Metals. The government is considering additional investments in sectors vital to national security such as rare earths, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and steel, alongside price floors and strategic stockpiles for rare-earth elements.He said the administration has identified seven industries for domestic development but stressed caution against overreach, ensuring investments align with strategic goals. Bessent also took aim at U.S. defense contractors, saying they lag in delivery and innovation, suggesting Washington could pressure them to focus more on research and less on share buybacks — a practice he said contributed to Boeing’s recent setbacks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

1545 GMT / 1145 US Eastern time:Participation by ECB board member Philip Lane in panel "Monetary Crosscurrents: Rethinking Frameworks Amid Trade and Policy Fragmentation" 1600 GMT / 1200 US Eastern timeParticipation by ECB President Christine Lagarde in IMF's Debate on the Global Economy, Shaping Economic Policies in the Face of Disruptive Change This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of America said China’s September credit data underscore persistent weakness in loan demand, as sluggish property and investment activity offset modest improvements in infrastructure-related lending.New yuan loans rose by 1.29 trillion yuan, in line with BofA’s expectations but below the market forecast of 1.46 trillion yuan. Total social financing (TSF) came in slightly stronger at 3.53 trillion yuan, while M1 money supply expanded 7.2% and M2 growth slowed to 8.4%.Household borrowing fell sharply, with consumer loans at 389 billion yuan, down from 500 billion yuan a year earlier, and corporate loans sliding to 1.22 trillion yuan from 1.49 trillion. Though short-term consumer lending improved quarter-on-quarter due to interest subsidies, volumes remained well below 2024 levels. Corporate capital-expenditure loans also eased to 910 billion yuan.BofA said overall loan appetite remains subdued despite policy support, but infrastructure spending could offer limited upside for credit growth in the fourth quarter. ---BofA’s assessment reinforces the cautious view on China’s credit momentum, suggesting property-sector malaise continues to offset fiscal stimulus. Modest Q4 infrastructure gains may steady credit aggregates but are unlikely to revive private loan appetite. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

1730 GMT / 1330 US Eastern time:Fireside Chat with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada at Peterson Institute for International EconomicsThe Bank of Canada cut its overnight policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, the first rate cut after a six-month pause, back on on September 17. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly surged to 4.5% in September — the highest in nearly four years — as more people entered the labour force, complicating the Reserve Bank of Australia’s balancing act between supporting growth and containing inflation.The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a net employment gain of 14,900, below expectations for a 20,000 rise, with full-time jobs up modestly after August’s sharp decline. Annual jobs growth has slowed to 1.3%, down from 3.5% at the start of the year.The soft report prompted markets to ramp up bets on a November RBA rate cut to 71%, from 40% before the data. The Australian dollar fell 0.4% to around US$0.6480, while bond futures rallied and equities hit record highs on rate-cut hopes.RBA Governor Michele Bullock said policymakers remain cautious, noting stronger consumer spending and stickier inflation in recent months. While core inflation is back within the RBA’s 2–3% target range, the latest jobs data suggest renewed economic slack could reopen the door to further easing before year-end. ps. the next quarterly CPI data from Australia is due on October 29, ahead of the November 3-4 Reserve Bank of Australia meeting This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Japan's TamuraBOJ should push rates closer toward levels deemed neutralGrowth rate of Japan’s economy is likely to rise, with overseas economies returning to a moderate growth pathDon’t need to raise rates sharply, tighten monetary policy now when there are both upside, downside risksMy view is that there is a strong possibility that the slowdown in overseas economies will not be as significant as initially expectedGiven upside price risks, BOJ should push up rates closer toward neutral to avoid being forced to hike rates sharply in the futureInflation may deviate upward from the baseline scenarioInflation risk is mounting in JapanMany firms appear to be maintaining a proactive fixed investment stanceHigher food prices should not be regarded as merely a temporary factor, and they require close monitoringJapan’s real interest rate remains in negative territoryThere is a significant risk that domestic price developments will deviate upward from the outlook presented in the July 2025 outlookBelieve Japan’s neutral rate is at least 1%Believe that the policy interest rate is still far away from the neutral interest rateHard to judge where neutral rate is, so BOJ has little choice but to gradually raise rates to find out where above 1% it actually liesIt has become more likely that the price stability target will be achieved earlier than expectedWe are in a phase where we should decide raising rates to move it closer to neutral USD/JPY is back down towards its earlier lows after this from Tamura. Tamura was always going to sound less dovish than other Board members, as noted (see below) he was in favour at a hike at the Bank's September meeting. ---Full text:Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan---BOJ policy board member Naoki Tamura meeting with local leaders in Okinawa, Japan. He is one of two BoJ policy board members who dissented from the BOJ’s decision to hold policy rates steady at last month’s meeting. Both members signaled they believe the central bank is ready for another rate increase This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Central bank heads from Japan, China, South Korea held a three way meetingBank of Japan Governor Ueda chaired the meetinggovernors exchanged views on recent economic and financial developments This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.The previous close was 7.1278 PBoC injects CNY 236bln via 7-day reverse repos, rate at unchnaged 1.40% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ANZ forecasts for gold and silver:gold to peak at US$4600 by June 2026gold to US$4400 by year end 2025see the potential for lower in H2 of 2026 as the US Federal Reserve concludes its easing cyclesilver to peak at US$57.50 by June 2026ANZ:Mounting concerns around the Fed's independence, political uncertainty, trade tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and ballooning debts will continue to keep strategic investment interest strong for goldANZ cautions that a hawkish Fed stance and stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth could pose downside risks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Earlier news on oil:ICYMI: Trump says India will stop buying Russian oil, vows to pressure China nextBessent prodding Japan now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian labour market reportUnemployment Rate 4.5% - an ugly result that'll reignite expectations for an RBA rate cut on November 4. expected 4.3%, prior 4.2%4.5% is approaching a four year jobless rate highEmployment Change +14.9Kexpected +17K, prior -5.4KParticipation Rate 67.0%, a higher result will take a little of the sting out of the jump in unemployment expected 66.8%, prior 66.8%Part-Time Employment +6.2Kprior +35.5KFull-Time Employment +8.7Kprior -40.9KLike I said above, this report ramps up expectations for a cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia at its next meeting, on November 3 and 4. The Bank wouldn't respond to just one report but August was really weak also. There is still CPI data to come before the November meeting:due on October 29but it'd have to be climbing rapidly to prevent a cut in November now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. How the process works:Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to halt purchases of Russian oil, a move that would mark a significant shift in one of Moscow’s key export markets. Trump added that he will now push China to take similar action as Washington steps up efforts to choke off Russia’s energy revenues.Oil has traded higher since. India and China are currently the largest buyers of Russian seaborne crude, benefiting from steep discounts since Western sanctions following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Trump has recently criticized India’s continued oil trade with Russia and imposed tariffs on Indian exports to discourage the practice, arguing that reducing such purchases would pressure Moscow toward peace talks.The Indian government has not yet confirmed Modi’s reported commitment. ---Trump’s claim that India will halt Russian oil imports could tighten global crude supply expectations and lift prices, though uncertainty remains until official confirmation from New Delhi. Pressure on China could further complicate energy trade flows in Asia. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

September 2025 Machinery Orders -0.9% m/mexpected +0.5%, prior -4.6%+1.6% y/yexpected +4.8%, prior +4.9%more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan fin min Kato:Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Will thoroughly monitor for excessive fluctuations and disorderly movements in forex marketGenerally speaking, political stability is important for FXConfirmed with Bessent agreement made between two nations on FXMore:Met with G7 finance leaders, discussed world economy, support for UkraineTold G7 about Japan’s concern about China’s rare earth restrictionsTold G7 that we should be vigilant against excessive fluctuations and disorderly movements in forex marketMet US Treasury Secretary BessentTold G7 tit-for-tat retaliation on trade would have adverse impact on global economy This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Japan policy board member Tamura is set to speak at 0130 GMT / 2130 US Eastern time. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida is to speak at an annual meeting of credit unions. I don't have a time for this one. Nope, my bad. Uchida to speak tomorrow, Friday, October 17, 2025. The IMF offered up some unsolicited advice for the Bank earlier:A senior IMF official has urged the BoJ to keep its monetary policy looseI don't the the BoJ pays much attention to the IMF. However, politics is centre stage right now, and we'll get more today:Japanese politics - LDP head Takaichi will hold a meeting with a minor party today This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese politics is impacting the yen and broader financial markets:Japan’s markets unwind Abenomics "2" trades as Komeito exit fuels political uncertaintyMarket expectations for Japan to remain under a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) government led by Sanae Takaichi, an advocate of Abenomics, have faded sharply, prompting traders to unwind weak-yen, long-equity, and bond positions.Takaichi will hold a meeting with a minor party today, Ishin:0600 GMT / 0200 US Eastern time This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.