We are likely to see that to be the case at our meeting next weekFrench inflation is a positive indicatorThis follows the French inflation report earlier here. And his remarks pretty much reaffirms a rate cut for next week as well. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE +0.8%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB flatUK stocks have some catching up to do after the holiday break yesterday. And the same will be the case for Wall Street later, with S&P 500 futures seen up 1.2% currently. Looking to the days ahead, month-end flows will factor in alongside Nvidia earnings after the close tomorrow for tech shares especially. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.8%HICP +0.6% vs +0.9% y/y expectedPrior +0.9%That's a softer set of readings than expected, with services inflation in particular seen easing. That dropped from 2.4% in April to 2.1% in May and that will feed into the core estimate further. Although, core annual inflation was already on the lower side for France at 1.3% last month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In the European session, the main highlight is the French CPI report. The data might not change the June cut probabilities that much, but a pick up in inflation in the next months could keep the ECB on hold for the rest of the year.In the American session, we have the US Durable Goods Orders data and the US Consumer Confidence report. The durable goods data is a very volatile data set and rarely market moving, the consumer confidence report though might influence interest rate expectations if we get big deviations.Central bank speakers:07:00 GMT/03:00 ET - ECB's Villeroy (dove - voter)08:00 GMT/04:00 ET - Fed's Kashkari (hawk - non voter)13:30 GMT/09:30 ET - Fed's Barkin (neutral - non voter)16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - ECB's Nagel (neutral - voter)16:20 GMT/12:20 ET - SNB's Schlegel (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.8%This of course follows the more solid gains from yesterday. UK stocks will have some catching up to do after the extended weekend. Hence, the gains in the futures there. As for the US, we're seeing S&P 500 futures up 1.0% awaiting the return of Wall Street. Month-end and Nvidia earnings will be two key things to watch on the agenda this week, alongside trade headlines of course. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior CHF 6.35 billion; revised to CHF 6.29 billionThe Swiss trade surplus was little changed in April with exports falling from CHF 30.3 billion in March to CHF 25.4 billion in April. Meanwhile, imports were seen down from CHF 24.0 billion in March to CHF 19.1 billion in April. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -20.6; revised to -20.8That's a slight improvement in consumer morale going into next month but there's still some reservations. There continues to be a decline in the willingness to spend among households alongside an increase in the willingness to save. The better headline reading is largely helped by an improvement in economic expectations instead. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Adam Button, before setting off for the FMAS:25 was able to stop in the studio of BNN Bloomberg and give his view on the CAD and more. To watch the segment click on the link: A bullish case for the Canadian dollar – BNN Bloomberg This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

But compared to last week, the dollar is still in a vulnerable spot. So far today though, we're seeing the greenback recover from being lower in Asia trading at least as well. USD/JPY was down to a low of 142.10 earlier but is now up to 142.93 - roughly flat on the day. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is down 0.1% to 1.1375 though there are large option expiries to watch out for. One interesting chart is AUD/USD, which failed to claim an upside break despite some early momentum yesterday:That's a disappointing showing on the part of buyers, with the pair now down 0.2% to 0.6470 on the day. That follows another failed attempt to hold a break above the 0.6500 mark. On the week itself, just be wary that the 100-week moving average will also add another resistance layer at 0.6510 for the pair. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1380 and 1.1400 level. The expiries should act as a magnet, especially the latter, in keeping price action in a stickier spot in the session ahead. That especially with a lack of fresh developments since the Trump tariffs delay news yesterday. So, we could end up seeing price action hold closer in and around the figure level before the expiries roll off later.Then, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6510 level. The pair tried for an upside break above 0.6500 yesterday but ultimately failed again, with the daily close coming under the figure level. That keeps the 0.6500 mark as a key resistance point and the expiries above will just add another layer to that for the session ahead alongside the 100-week moving average at 0.6513.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Barclays notes that the shift in portfolios by global investors during the month could invite more dollar selling to take place this week. That as trade tensions eased significantly since April, which led to a broader rally in stocks in May.Their month-end rebalancing model predicts that the dollar will face moderate selling against other major currencies to close out the month. The rebalancing is driven by the stronger relative performance in US stocks during May amid a poorer showing in US bonds and the dollar itself. Just something to keep in your back pocket for the days ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Well, at least for the time being. With there being heavy focus on the US deficit and Trump's warpath on trade, bonds won't be able to rest too easily. That especially with worries still permeating on the inflation front in particular. The Fed looks to be put off until at least Q3 despite constant pressure from Trump himself.The drop since the highs last week for longer-term yields will also allow stocks to also catch a breath at least. But once we get through month-end especially, we'll have to see where all this leads us.If the perception here is that the US isn't going to get things in order on the fiscal front, it just increases the likelihood of a further run higher in yields. That alongside the other factors above.Should that happen, will Trump buckle under the pressure again and make concessions on trade? That will be interesting to see. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese state media talking up the solid rise for April industrial profitsChina April Industrial Profits +3% y/y (prior +2.6%)Goldman Sachs sees lower oil prices in 2025-2026Japanfinmin Kato: Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentalPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1876 (vs. estimate at 7.1842)Japan fin min Kato: Market sees rising rates as reflecting concerns about state financesBIS' Carstens: Essential for fiscal authorities to curb relentless rise in public debtJPY is trading stronger on the back of solid inflation data, BoJ Gov Ueda commentsPBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1842 – Reuters estimateBank of Japan Governor Ueda - close to inflation target but not quite thereJapan Services Producer Price Index (April 2025) +3.1% (expected +3.0%, prior +3.1%)UK launches £3 billion plan to train locals, cut foreign worker relianceUK BRC Shop Price Index for May 2025: -0.1% y/y (expected –0.1%, prior –0.1%)ICYMI: OPEC+ meeting moved to May 31, a day earlier than previously plannedMore preview remarks on the expected RBNZ 25bp rate cut this weekCentral bank conference kicks off today, its just like Jackson Hole but in Tokyo!Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected to cut its cash rate by 25bp this week - previewICYMI: South Africa plans to buy around USD1bn a year of liquefied natural gas from the USForexlive Americas FX news wrap 26 May: Trump tariff delay lifts risk sentimentICYMI: PBoC 'asks' major banks to increase yuan share in crossborder trade to 40%, from 25Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 27 May, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas The early move here in Asia was for the US dollar to fall. Its losses were across the majors board, with reasons cited includingTrump’s tax plansurging US government indebtednessMoody’s downgradeNone of these is new information now.The euro bounced from its drip lower on Monday, Europe time, with tariff relief cited, along with Lagarde’s remarks pointing to growing sentiment it could compete with the dollar in global reserves.USD/JPY was a notable loser, falling onsolid wholesale services inflationbut more so on a speech from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, that didn’t appear all that hawkish. Ueda did reiterate that the BOJ will continue to raise rates, depending on economic and price conditions.China’s industrial profits rose in April for a second straight month, and at their fastest since December. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese state media outlet Global Times cites positive developments helping drive industrial profits in April:+3.0% year-on-year in April, 0.4 percentage points faster than in MarchGT says that new driving force sectors like equipment and high-tech manufacturing saw rapid profit growth, highlighting industrial resilienceFrom January to April, high-tech manufacturing profits increased by 9.0% year-on-year, 5.5 percentage points faster than in the first three months of the year, and 7.6 percentage points above the average of all industries. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Greg had the breaking headline on this:OPEC+ meeting was brought forward to May 31st from June 1stA little more detail now:eight OPEC+ countries will meet on May 31, a day earlier than previously plannedReuters with the info, citing three unnamed sourcesmeeting will likely decide on July outputsources previously told Reuters will entail another 411,000 barrels per day of productionmeeting is separate from the online ministerial meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia, set for May 28Russian Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ has not yet discussed hiking output by another 411,000 barrels per day ahead of its meeting This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to cut its cash rate by 25bp on Wednesday, local time2pmwhich is 0200 GMT and 2200 US Eastern time (Tuesday)Governor Hawkesby's press conference will follow an hour laterEarlier previews here:Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected to cut its cash rate by 25bp this week - previewReserve Bank of New Zealand Shadow Board recommends 25bp interest rate cut this weekReserve Bank of New Zealand expected to cut its cash rate on May 28, almost unanimous viewAdding in a few more anecdotes, these via a Bloomberg (gated) report:Westpac:“We see the RBNZ’s OCR profile being revised down by around 20 basis points to around 2.9% by the end of 2025”“Beyond this meeting, a data-dependent easing bias seems likely.”ASB:“Despite tariff de-escalation, we continue to view the US-China trade war as a net negative to the New Zealand economy and inflation over the medium term.”“Pronounced uncertainty means the RBNZ will want optionality on policy moves, so we’d expect cautious, data- and event-dependent commentary on the outlook for monetary policy.”ANZ:“In this kind of environment, there’s plenty of leeway for strategy to play a role” “We continue to expect that the RBNZ will ultimately deliver an OCR of 2.5%, but we don’t expect them to signal such an outcome at this stage.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A two-day Bank of Japan-hosted conference, likened to the Fed’s Jackson Hole, begins Tuesday in Tokyo. Central bankers and academics from the U.S., Europe, and Asia will tackle complex issues such as slowing global growth, persistent inflation, and volatile markets—much of it driven by U.S. trade policy under Trump.Key topics include interest rate control, quantitative tightening, and how to respond to “inflation scares” triggered by supply shocks like the pandemic. An IMF paper warning of long-lasting inflation from such shocks will also be debated.---Despite inflation cooling elsewhere, Japan’s core inflation hit 3.5% in April, prompting BOJ Governor Ueda to signal that rate hikes may resume if inflation stays on track. However, global uncertainty—especially from tariffs—has forced the BOJ to temper its pace. Other central banks face similar dilemmas, with the Fed in a holding pattern and the ECB reconsidering further rate cuts.---BOJ's Ueda and BIS head Agustin Carstens are among the keynote speakers.I'm not certain on the timing of this. Hosted by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

All major banks in New Zealand are expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its cash rate by 25bp at its meeting on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Kiwibank and Westpac are all previewing a 25 basis point cutto take the cash rate to 3.25% (currently 3.5%)ANZ comment:"I am pretty confident about the 25 point cut because if I'm wrong, everybody's wrong... given they (RBNZ) have signalled this and everyone's expecting it and the market is pricing it." "There have been ups and downs in the data, but nothing that would seriously challenge the expectation they will cut another 25, so it would be an enormous surprise if they were to pause or cut 50." And, further out, ASB:"Three more cuts to 2.75% looks pretty certain, it is going to be quite dependent on the Reserve Bank factoring in some negative impacts on inflation from the tariffs over the medium term.""So because we still have a lot of uncertainty about exactly how New Zealand will be impacted by the tariffs, there will be potential for the Reserve Bank to be cautious in the short term as well." Direct quotes via Reuters. 2pm New Zealand time on Wednesday is0200 GMT2200 US Eastern time on Tuesday---Earlier:Reserve Bank of New Zealand Shadow Board recommends 25bp interest rate cut this weekReserve Bank of New Zealand expected to cut its cash rate on May 28, almost unanimous view This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reports of a likely trade deal between South Africa and the US top include:South Africa plans to buy liquefied natural gas from the US, around US$1 bn/year In return, South Africa would avoid paying duty on exports of 40,000 vehicles a year to the US This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

GBPUSD extends above 2024 highs & highest levels since 2022; new weekly swing target eyedTrump Media plans to raise $3B to spend on cryptocurrency.European indices close mostly higherOPEC+ meeting was brought forward to May 31st from June 1stFoxBusiness Gasparino: India trade deal is almost complete. Apple is a potential issueBloomberg: EU plans to fast track trade talks with the USHamas reportedly agrees to ceasefire proposal...but waitNvidia to report earnings this weekECBs Lagarde: US policy helps to boost the EUR global roleSpring Bank Holiday in the UK/Memorial Day in the US will keep action limitedForexLive European FX news wrap: Softer dollar as markets digest Trump tariffs delay on EUThe USD was mixed and little changed vs the major currencies. Looking at the changes for the USD:EUR -0.16%JPY: +0.17%GBP -0.17%CHF -0.07%CAD UnchangedAUD +0.18%NZD -0.17%The US dollar saw marginal selling on Monday amid thin liquidity due to US and UK holidays. Among major currencies, NZD, EUR, and GBP were the strongest performers (USD fell), while JPY and AUD lagged slightly (USD was higher). Market sentiment was lifted by President Trump’s announcement of a delay in the 50% EU tariff deadline to July 9, which supported risk assets and contributed to modest USD weakness. It was on Friday, that Trump posted he "recommended" (to who? I don't know), the EU be hit with the tariffs starting on June 1. After a discussion with EU Commision President Ursula von der Leyen, he commented "it was my privilege to" extend the tariff deadline.The US stock and bond markets were closed. European indices closed mostly higher on the day on the tariff reprieve.The final numbers are showed:German Dax, +1.68%France's CAC, +1.21%UK FTSE 100, -0.24%Spain's Ibex, +0.83%.Italy's FSE MIB 1.20%In other geopolitical news, Pres. Trump called Russia's Puting crazy following weekend drone attacks. The Kremlin responded by claiming Donald Trump was showing signs of "emotional overload". The new trading day will have UK and US traders back to full staffs. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.