The GBPUSD is pushing sharply higher, up close to 0.50% on the day, with the rally taking the pair to its highest level since May 12.From a technical perspective, buyers have checked several important boxes on the way higher. The price has moved above its 100-hour moving average, the 50% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.3503, and the July high at 1.35573. The latest push has taken the price to 1.3561.Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair has also broken above a key swing area between 1.3543 and 1.3557. That breakout area now becomes important support. For buyers looking for the move to continue, staying above 1.3543 is the close risk level. A move back below would raise concerns about a failed breakout and could lead to some disappointment selling.As long as the price remains above that level, however, the buyers remain firmly in control.On the topside, the next key target is the 61.8% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.3589. A break above that level would open the door toward the April highs near 1.3657.For perspective, there is still considerable room before the pair challenges its 2026 high at 1.38671, which was reached in January.Nevertheless, today's move above the 50% midpoint at 1.3503 and the 1.3543–1.3557 swing area represents a meaningful bullish technical development. As long as those breakout levels hold, the door remains open for additional upside momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month 0.3% revised higher to 0.4%Business inventories for June 0.0% vs 0.1% estimateRetail inventories ex autos -0.4% vs -0.2% last month.Sales show a sharp fall in June but still up strong for the year. June business sales: $2.111 trillion Month-over-month:-1.1% vs. May 2026 Year-over-year:+10.0% vs. June 2025 Sales figures are seasonally and trading-day adjusted, but not adjusted for price changes.The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of June was 1.30 which is higher from the lowest level going back to 2021.   The June 2025 ratio was 1.39.With the inventory-to-sales ratio is at its lowest since 2021, it can create the conditions for an inventory-rebuilding cycle, particularly if sales remain firm.Inventories are lean relative to sales. Businesses are carrying less inventory for each dollar of sales, meaning there is less of an inventory cushion. Potential production boost: If demand holds up, companies may need to increase orders and production to rebuild inventories. Historically, inventory drawdowns associated with stronger demand can lead to increased output as firms restock. Positive for GDP: Inventory investment is part of GDP. A transition from little or no inventory accumulation to meaningful restocking can therefore add to GDP growth, even before inventories become particularly large. The Fed has documented past periods when a turn from inventory liquidation toward restocking provided a meaningful contribution to growth. Positive for manufacturing and transportation: A broad rebuild could mean more factory production, supplier orders, freight and warehousing activity. But demand is critical. A low ratio by itself doesn't guarantee a rebuild. If sales weaken, companies may be perfectly comfortable with existing inventories and won't necessarily increase orders. There is also a structural issue: Businesses have become more efficient at running lean inventories through just-in-time systems, so today's "normal" inventory-to-sales ratio may be lower than historical norms. For the June numbers, there's an interesting setup: inventories were essentially flat m/m while sales were +10.0% y/y, and the inventory/sales ratio is 1.30 versus 1.39 a year ago. If sales remain resilient, that increasingly argues for future inventory rebuilding—which could provide an additional tailwind to production and GDP.The key question over the next few months is whether sales stay strong enough to force businesses to restock.The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. Data for the wholesale and manufacturing sectors are unrevised from the most recent Monthly Wholesale Trade Report and the Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and orders. Data from the Retail sector is revised and presented in more detail from the most recent Advance Economic Indicators Report This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 55.2Conditions 51.8 vs 55.0 expected (prior 54.9)Expectations 50.6 vs 55.2 expected (prior 54.0)1-year inflation 4.3% vs 4.2% prior5-year inflation 3.3% vs 3.3% priorThe market doesn't put any weight on this survey anymore. It's highly infected by politics and hasn't forecast anything in regards to consumer spending in ages. The inflation numbers did once trick the Fed into an aggressive rate hike in the post-covid era, which they had to leak via Timiraos. The irony is that the jump in inflation expectations in that number was revised away two weeks later. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

In yesterday’s post and video, I highlighted the importance of the swing area between 0.8138 and 0.81513, writing:“Ultimately, if buyers are going to take firmer control, they need to get and stay above 0.8151. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and have traders looking toward the July swing highs near 0.8206.”That break never materialized.The USDCHF reached a late-session high yesterday of 0.8146, just below the upper end of that key swing area. In the new trading day, buyers made another attempt, but the price stalled at 0.8145 before rotating back to the downside.The selling pressure has intensified over the last few hours, helped by broader U.S. dollar weakness. Technically, the decline has taken the USDCHF below its 100-hour moving average at 0.81185 and down to test the 200-hour moving average at 0.81049. The low has reached 0.8104, just below that moving average, before bouncing modestly. The pair currently trades around 0.8108.That puts the focus squarely on the 100- and 200-hour moving averages heading into the weekend.On the topside, a move back above the 100-hour moving average at 0.81185 would give buyers some breathing room and increase the potential for another run toward the 0.8138–0.81513 swing area. However, as long as the price remains below the 100-hour MA, sellers maintain the stronger short-term technical hand.On the downside, the 200-hour moving average at 0.81049 is the immediate battleground. A sustained break below that level would increase the bearish bias and target Wednesday’s low near 0.8092. Below there, attention would shift toward the 0.8060–0.8070 swing area, followed by the 38.2% retracement at 0.8049.A break below those levels would put the lower end of the broader two-month value area near 0.8029 back in play. That level has helped define the bottom of the wider 0.8029–0.81513 trading range.For now, the battle lines are clearly defined. The 200-hour moving average is the key downside barometer, while the 100-hour moving average is the level buyers need to reclaim. How the price behaves between those two technical levels should determine who carries the stronger hand into the weekend. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Coming into today’s trading, USDCAD had been confined to a relatively narrow range for the week. The high was set on Monday at 1.3964, while Wednesday’s low reached 1.3908 — a range of just 56 pips (see red box on the chart below). However, as posted yesterday, the sellers still had the strongest hand (see post here). That changed today as sellers pushed the pair to a new weekly low at 1.3868. The weekly range has now expanded to nearly 100 pips, which is a little more respectable, although still not particularly large by historical standards.More importantly, the move lower represents another leg in the step-by-step decline that has been developing since USDCAD peaked in mid-June.From a technical perspective, the sellers have checked off several important boxes this week. The price held resistance within the 1.3948 to 1.3966 swing area, then moved below and away from the 100-hour moving average at 1.39295 and the 100-day moving average at 1.39185 (see blue lines on the chart above).The pair has also broken below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the May 1 low near 1.3550 to the June 24 high at 1.4247. That midpoint comes in at 1.3899 — call it 1.3900 — and the break below that level represents another important technical victory for sellers in the stair-step move lower from the June high.The low today reached 1.3868, briefly moving below the bottom of a swing area between 1.38683 and 1.3877. However, the decline has so far stalled ahead of two increasingly important downside targets: a channel trendline near 1.3859 and the 200-day moving average at 1.3852.That 200-day moving average is particularly important.The last time USDCAD traded below its 200-day moving average was back around June 1. At that time, the price broke below and based near the moving average around 1.3810 before reversing sharply higher. That rebound ultimately carried the pair to its 2026 high at 1.4247 on June 24 — a significant move in a relatively short period of time.The 200-day moving average has since moved higher to 1.3852, but it remains a key barometer for both buyers and sellers.As a result, I would not be surprised to see some apprehension on the first test of that level. Sellers who entered at higher levels may look to take some profits, while dip buyers may lean against the moving average looking for a corrective bounce. Importantly, the level also gives those buyers a clearly defined area where risk can be limited.Nevertheless, the sellers remain in control. A sustained break below the 200-day moving average at 1.3852 would represent another significant bearish technical development and open the door for further downside momentum.Conversely, simply bouncing from the 200-day moving average would not be enough to turn the technical picture bullish. It would take a move back above the 100-day and 100-hour moving averages in the 1.3920–1.3930 area to start scaring the sellers and give buyers greater confidence that a more meaningful bottom may be in place.For now, the stair-step trend remains lower, with the 200-day moving average at 1.3852 shaping up as the next major test. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month +1.3%Manufacturing Sales +0.1% versus -0.1% estimateDetails:Manufacturing sales: +0.1% m/m to $78.8 billion, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Year over year: Sales were +14.5%. Excluding petroleum & coal: Sales increased a much stronger 2.6% m/m. Constant-dollar sales: +1.2%, suggesting underlying volumes were firmer than the headline nominal increase.Subsector highlightsChemicals: +6.0% to $6.3 billion, a fourth straight gain and highest since October 2022. Transportation equipment: +2.8% to $12.4 billion, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Motor vehicle parts: +6.2% Aerospace products & parts: +6.0%Petroleum & coal:-14.1% to $10.1 billion, largely reflecting lower petroleum and energy prices. Second-quarter strength is a positive  Q2 manufacturing sales surged 9.3% to a record $235.1 billion, the fourth straight quarterly increase. Petroleum & coal: +33.7% q/q Transportation equipment: +14.7% q/q Excluding petroleum & coal: +6.1% q/q Constant-dollar Q2 sales: +4.6%Inventories do add to the growth. Manufacturing inventories rose 0.6% to $126.8 billion in June and were up 2.0% in Q2. Goods in process: +2.0% Raw materials: +0.2% Finished products: -0.3% Transportation equipment inventories: +3.1% Machinery: +2.0% Petroleum and coal: -3.6%Inventory-to-sales ratio edged higher to 1.61 from 1.60 in May. Unfilled orders increased 1.2% to a record $131.8 billion, driven largely by a 2.4% increase in aerospace products and parts. Unfilled orders were +8.4% in Q2. Capacity utilization edged up to 82.3% from 82.2%. Non-metallic mineral products: +4.3 percentage points Primary metals: +1.9 points Machinery: +0.6 point Transportation equipment: -2.9 pointsOverall, the headline +0.1% increase looks modest, but it was better than expectatations and the the details are stronger. Excluding the sharp petroleum decline, sales rose 2.6%, volumes increased 1.2%, Q2 sales hit a record, and unfilled orders also reached a record high. The 2nd quarter data was strong as well.     This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.2%Ex autos -0.3% vs +0.2% expEx gas and autos -0.2% vs +0.4% priorRetail control -0.4% vs +0.3% expRetail sales y/y nominal 5.01% vs +6.72% priorThe thinking is that the US consumer will continue spend so long as the jobs market holds up but this report dents that view. I'd caution that it's only one report. The negative reading on the control group is the first one since September 2025 and follows a string of good numbers.Deeper in the data, a big drag is motor vehicles and parts, down 1.8% m/m and eectronics were also lower by 0.5%. There was some upside in building materials up 0.3% and food services and drinking places up 0.5%, no doubt due to the World Cup. There might have also been a Prime Day hangover with sales at non-store retailers down 2.2% m/m. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US stocks hit records, but oil and weaker earnings signals demand more selectivityUS stocks remain supported by softer inflation and lower expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike. However, two risks are becoming harder to ignore: elevated oil prices and a defensive shift in recent earnings reactions. The market is still constructive, but traders may need to become more selective rather than simply buying every AI stock or market dip.Key takeaways for traders and investors todayUS stocks: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record levels after benign producer-price inflation. Main macro risk: A sustained Brent crude breakout above $90 could revive inflation concerns and pressure growth stocks. Earnings warning: Recent earnings batches have produced weaker breadth and more influential large-cap declines. AI lesson: Applied Materials fell about 5% despite solid results, showing that good earnings are not always good enough when expectations are extremely high. Current market read: This looks like an emerging defensive shift, not yet a confirmed bearish regime.In my latest market breakdown, I'm watching Bitcoin struggle below the key $64,000 value pivot as futures slip beneath their developing value area and spot trades under its rising pitchfork channel, placing the immediate tactical burden of proof entirely on buyers. Meanwhile, risk sentiment in broader equity markets continues to find underlying support, with Eamonn Sheridan from investingLive.com reporting that OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate has surpassed $40 billion amid aggressive enterprise expansion ahead of a prospective public listing. In the macro and currency space, Justin Low at investingLive.com outlined three key structural reasons why BOJ rate hikes will not save the yen due to severe debt-servicing limits and deeply negative real rates, while his commodity coverage also highlighted how gold buyers lost upward momentum after breaking below the 100-hour moving average, shifting the yellow metal's near-term bias to neutral as sellers defend key technical resistance overhead. And if you're interested in trade ideas for the US Dollar, check these out.Why softer inflation is helping US stocksThe S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,798.99, up 0.65%, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.81% to 26,803.03. The Dow gained a more modest 0.13%, finishing at 53,839.99.Technology and semiconductor stocks again provided important leadership. Sandisk rose approximately 13.7%, Micron gained around 4.2%, Meta advanced 2.8%, and Microsoft added nearly 1%.The immediate catalyst was softer US producer-price inflation. July PPI was essentially unchanged from the previous month, compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase.That reduced the probability of another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. Markets are now pricing roughly a 33% to 35% chance of a September increase, down from approximately 55% a week earlier. Michael Stark, financial content lead at Exness, notes that softer employment data and inflation meeting expectations have pushed more hawkish Fed scenarios out of focus for now. His main caution is that mid-August activity remains seasonally subdued, so a decisive market breakout may require genuinely surprising news or renewed geopolitical tension.This matters because lower expectations for future interest rates can make highly valued growth stocks easier for investors to justify. However, the US 10-year Treasury yield remains relatively elevated near 4.66% to 4.70%, so technology stocks are not completely free from interest-rate risk.Are earnings reactions becoming more defensive?The broader index picture is bullish, but the latest earnings reactions are becoming less supportive.The August 13 after-hours batch produced several defensive signals: Only about 37% of directional reactions were positive. The median stock reaction was approximately -1.3%. The simple average reaction was around -1.8%. When company size was considered, the batch weakened to approximately -2.8%. Downside moves beyond options-implied expectations slightly outnumbered upside breaks. This does not mean Q3 earnings season has turned decisively bearish. Earlier batches produced powerful gains in companies such as Nebius, CoreWeave, Lumentum and Super Micro. The wider quarter has also included major positive repricings in Microsoft, Amazon, Palantir, Shopify and Airbnb.The better description is a highly selective earnings environment that is beginning to develop a defensive bias.Investors are still willing to reward genuine upside surprises. They are also becoming less forgiving when results, guidance or management commentary fail to meet elevated expectations.Why Applied Materials matters, but is not an extreme shockApplied Materials fell about 5% after earnings, despite revenue growth of approximately 25%, better-than-expected revenue and guidance above consensus.This reaction matters because Applied Materials is a large semiconductor company. Its decline can affect sector sentiment and major indexes much more than a larger percentage move in a small company.However, there is an important nuance: options traders had been pricing an earnings move of approximately 7.4%.A 5% decline is therefore negative, but smaller than the move the options market considered plausible before the announcement. It is a meaningful large-cap drag, not an unusually severe earnings shock.This distinction helps explain why traders should compare the actual reaction with the expected move.What this means: Options prices provide an estimate of how far a stock might move around earnings. A 5% decline when 10% was expected can be relatively contained. A 10% decline when only 4% was expected represents a much stronger negative surprise.Why the indexes can rise while earnings sentiment weakensEarnings breadth counts how many reporting companies rise or fall, but that count does not reveal the entire market impact.Twenty small companies can rally while one major technology company falls. The batch may have more winners, yet the large company can still exert greater pressure on the S&P 500 or Nasdaq.That appears to be part of the current story. Some recent earnings batches had respectable positive breadth, but larger negative companies mattered more than the smaller winners.The latest earnings data should therefore be treated as an early warning about market psychology, not proof that the broader equity rally is over.The most interesting markets and setups to watchCould oil become the spoiler for stocks?Brent crude is trading near $87 per barrel, while WTI is around $81.Oil is caught between two powerful forces. Middle East tensions and risks surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are supporting prices. On the other side, weaker demand forecasts and a large increase in US crude inventories are limiting the bullish case.The area around $90 Brent is the clearest macro level to watch.Bullish oil scenario: Sustained acceptance above $90 would suggest geopolitical supply risk is overpowering weaker-demand concerns. Traders could then monitor crude oil, energy producers and relative weakness in rate-sensitive technology stocks. Bearish oil scenario: Rejection in the upper $80s, followed by a breakdown, could favor mean reversion as weaker demand and rising inventories regain attention. Even investors who never trade oil should watch this market. The potential transmission mechanism is straightforward:Higher oil prices → greater inflation risk → higher interest-rate expectations → potentially higher Treasury yields → pressure on expensive growth stocks.What should traders watch in AI and semiconductor stocks?Applied Materials, Cisco and other recent reporters show that an earnings beat alone is no longer enough to guarantee a bullish reaction.For potential longs, traders may want to watch strong companies that initially sell off after earnings but subsequently reclaim the breakdown area. That can show that the market has absorbed the disappointment and is beginning to accept higher prices again.For potential shorts, failure to reclaim the post-earnings gap can support a continuation or fade setup, particularly when the stock entered earnings with an extended valuation and exceptionally high expectations.The key question is not simply whether the stock initially rose or fell:Does the market accept the new post-earnings price, or does it quickly reverse the reaction?Is the gold pullback a possible opportunity?Spot gold is trading near $4,324, while US gold futures are around $4,379.The current decline looks more like profit-taking following a strong advance than definitive evidence of a larger bearish reversal. Gold continues to receive support from geopolitical uncertainty, central-bank demand, portfolio diversification and reduced expectations for additional Fed tightening.One possible setup is to wait for a controlled pullback that forms a higher low. The bullish case would strengthen if buyers defend support while Treasury yields and the US dollar remain contained.The setup weakens if gold breaks deeper support at the same time that yields and the dollar accelerate higher.Why USD/JPY near 160 deserves attentionUSD/JPY is approaching the psychologically important 160 area.Large round numbers can attract profit-taking, stop orders, options activity and concerns about possible official intervention. Traders should focus on the reaction rather than automatically buying or selling at the number. Sustained acceptance above 160 could support another momentum move higher. A sharp rejection could produce a tactical bearish setup. This is a useful example of why price behavior around a level is often more informative than the level itself.What would confirm a broader defensive shift?The warning from recent earnings would become more convincing if upcoming batches show several of the following: Fewer than half of reporting companies rise. Large-cap earnings reactions remain negative. More stocks fall beyond their options-implied moves. Semiconductor weakness spreads across the sector. Recent earnings losers fail to recover. Previous earnings winners begin surrendering their gains. The defensive interpretation would weaken if major earnings losers recover, large-cap winners reappear, semiconductor leadership strengthens and positive reactions again exceed expected moves.For now, US equities remain supported, but the easy phase of simply chasing strong indexes and AI enthusiasm may be becoming more complicated. Oil, Treasury yields and post-earnings price acceptance should provide the clearest evidence about what comes next.These are market scenarios and areas to monitor, not guarantees or individualized investment advice. Traders should define their confirmation, invalidation and maximum acceptable risk before entering a position. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The US dollar is trading lower across the board to start the North American session on Friday, with the greenback losing ground against all of the major currencies. The NZD is leading the way, rising 0.62% versus the USD and back above the 100 and 200 hour MAs (see chart below), while the GBP is up 0.39%, the CAD is up 0.37%, the EUR is up 0.35%, and the JPY is up 0.22% versus the dollar. For the three major pairs covered in the Kickstart video, that translates into EURUSD and GBPUSD moving higher, while USDJPY is moving lower.In today's Kickstart video, I take a technical look at three of the currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - identifying the bias, the risk levels that could shift that bias, and the key targets ahead. Those are the three things every trader should be aware of as the North American trading day gets underway.For the Japanese yen and the Bank of Japan are a major focus today following reports that the BOJ could raise rates as soon as its September 17-18 meeting and may accelerate the pace of tightening thereafter. The BOJ has generally been raising rates at a pace of roughly twice a year, but growing concerns about inflation and continued yen weakness are increasing the pressure to move more quickly. Reuters reports that markets are now pricing in nearly an 80% probability of a September hike.USDJPY initially reacted to the report by falling from around 159.32 to 159.15 before paring some of that decline. However, higher BOJ rates do not necessarily guarantee a sustained yen rally. Justin spoke to 3 reasons why the BOJ might not be able to save the JPY.  Japan's fragile fiscal position limits how aggressively the BOJ can tighten, real interest rates remain low, and markets have already priced in significant additional tightening. The BOJ may therefore need to do more than simply raise rates—it may need to surprise traders with the speed and extent of future tightening to generate a more lasting change in the yen's trend. The recent experience with intervention also shows the challenge, with the yen having already surrendered roughly half of the gains generated by the joint US-Japan intervention. (Reuters)In the Eurozone, the second estimate of Q2 GDP showed growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Q1 growth was revised down to 0.0% from +0.1%, while the economy grew 1.0% from a year ago. The report has had limited market impact, with attention remaining on central-bank policy, inflation and geopolitical developments.In the European stock market, the major indices are mostly higher as North American traders enter for the day. Germany's DAX is leading the gains, while France, the UK and Italy are little changed.DAX: +0.79%CAC: +0.06%FTSE 100: +0.01%Ibex: +0.18%FTSE MIB: +0.03%In the US stock market, futures are pointing to a mixed opening. The S&P 500 closed at a record level yesterday, helped by another softer US inflation report, but the major averages are showing only modest changes ahead of today's open. S&P: +4.26 pointsDow: -61 pointsNasdaq 100: +82 pointsIn the US debt market, Treasury yields are mixed, with the shorter end slightly lower and the longer end moving higher. That is producing a steeper yield curve, with the largest move coming in the 30-year yield.2-year: 4.1376%, down 0.2 basis points5-year: 4.3162%, up 0.3 basis points10-year: 4.6526%, up 1.2 basis points30-year: 5.2361%, up 2.5 basis pointsIn commodities, crude oil is trading modestly higher and holding above $81, while precious metals are also seeing gains. Gold is up 0.19%, while silver is outperforming with a gain of nearly 0.5%.Crude oil: $81.71, +$0.46 or +0.57%Gold: $4,358.34, +0.19%Silver: $64.78, +0.48%Bitcoin is moving in the opposite direction, trading lower on the day and back below the $63,000 level.Bitcoin: $62,817, down $601 or -0.95%On tap for economic releases today, the US consumer takes center stage today, with July retail sales highlighting the 8:30 AM ET data slate. After this week's CPI and PPI reports showed inflation moderating, the retail sales data will give traders another piece of the puzzle—this time on the strength of consumer spending. Later, the preliminary University of Michigan survey will provide an update on consumer sentiment and, importantly for the Fed, inflation expectations.8:30 AM ET — US Retail SalesRetail sales MoM: +0.1% expected vs +0.2% priorRetail sales ex-autos: +0.2% expected vs -0.2% priorRetail sales ex-gas/autos: +0.4% priorRetail control group: +0.3% expected vs +0.5% priorRetail sales YoY: +6.72% prior8:30 AM ET — CanadaManufacturing sales MoM: -0.1% expected vs +1.3% priorWholesale trade MoM: +2.7% expected vs 0.0% prior10:00 AM ET — US Business InventoriesBusiness inventories MoM: +0.1% expected vs +0.3% priorRetail inventories ex-autos: -0.2% prior10:00 AM ET — University of Michigan preliminary August surveyConsumer sentiment: 54.5 expected vs 55.2 prior monthCurrent conditions: 55.0 expected vs 54.8 priorConsumer expectations: 55.2 expected vs 55.4 prior1-year inflation expectations: 4.2% prior5-year inflation expectations: 3.3% priorThe 8:30 AM retail sales report is the main event. A stronger-than-expected report would reinforce the idea that the US consumer remains resilient, while a downside surprise would add another softer data point following this week's inflation reports. At 10:00 AM, the Michigan 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations will also be worth watching closely for what they say about whether consumers see the recent moderation in inflation continuing. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Dollar nudges lower on the day amid mixed market moodBitcoin loses key $64,000 level: The important support levels BTC must hold nextBOJ reportedly set for a September rate hike, eyes faster pace of tighteningGerman wholesale prices bounce back in July as energy tax cut lapsesFrench inflation accelerates again in July, core prices move up as wellSwiss economy estimated to post quarterly growth of 1.5% in the second quarterChina new bank loans contract again in July, the second time this yearMarkets:WTI crude oil up 0.5% to $81.64NZD leads, USD lags on the dayGold up 0.3% to $4,362S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%US 10-year yields up 0.3 bps to 4.645%Bitcoin down 0.8% to $62,829There's not all too much in it as we get into the final stretch of the week.The market mood is fairly mixed, with the dollar sitting lower while oil prices and bond yields are just a touch higher on the day.There are no fresh developments on the US-Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz still in de facto closure after Iran threatened more ships again - this time being UAE oil vessels.WTI crude sits higher by 0.5% to $81.64 and looks poised to end the week with gains well over 5%. Meanwhile, bond yields also nudged a little higher early on but is now moving back down a little. 10-year yields in the US are little changed now at 4.645% with the earlier high touching 4.665%.Even so, the dollar is seen being offered in European morning trade. It was one-way traffic with the greenback losing ground across the board. EUR/USD is up 0.3% to 1.1567 in retesting the 100-day moving average once again. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is down 0.2% to close in on the 159.00 mark on the day.In other markets, European indices are lightly changed for the most part while US futures are holding a marginal advance on the day. There's not a whole lot in it but Wall Street will be hoping to follow up from the record close in the S&P 500 yesterday.Besides that, gold is up 0.3% to $4,362 after erasing early losses with the fall back earlier touching a low of $4,311. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

After the joint intervention from Japan and the US, the yen currency has been a key focus again in recent weeks. And that just amplifies all the scrutiny on the upcoming BOJ policy decision, with some speculation that the joint intervention included some promise on Japan's end to push for higher interest rates.While a more hawkish BOJ may be a driving factor to potentially help defend the yen, is it going to be what turns the tide? The yen has been heavily punished amid a multitude of factors since late last year already. And here's a good reminder as to why those factors will continue to pressure the currency, besides the ongoing US-Iran conflict.1. Japan's fiscal situation remains fragileThis is the whole premise of the Takaichi trade that has been running since October last year. Her appointment has only heightened worries about Japan's fiscal predicament and that has not gone away.The country's debt-to-GDP ratio remains well above 200% and continues to rank as the highest among all major advanced and big economies. As such, they can't really withstand an aggressive tightening cycle especially. And so, the BOJ has a very fine line to maneuver in this case.That as higher interest rates will immediately balloon the Japanese government’s cost of servicing its massive national debt. That means no matter how much the BOJ wants to talk about raising interest rates, the "terminal rate" is arguably much lower than other major economies like the US and/or Europe.So, that does knock down some credibility of any aggressive tightening that could structurally underpin the yen currency in the big picture.2. Japan's real interest rates are still a problemAnother troubling spot is that real interest rates in Japan are still very much negative at this juncture. Even with the BOJ policy rate at 1% or potentially being driven to 1.50% moving forward, that is still holding below underlying inflation - in which the central bank argues is close to 2% currently.It's still a key as to why the yen continues to struggle against all odds, even with the recent resurgence in Japanese bond yields.Currency traders don't only trade on nominal yields/rates but also on real rates. So unless the BOJ does intend to take a very bold step to change the dynamics of the landscape, then it's safe to say that this is one spot that will stick for quite some time.Even if we are seeing some narrowing in rate differentials in the past two years, especially in the bond market, the rates argument is still very much in favour of the US. Hence, the carry trade math is still working - albeit less effective.But then again, it's best to remember that Japan's bond yields are not only rising because of the inflation/BOJ outlook. It is also largely to do with rising risks on the fiscal side of things and therein lies another set of risks for traders and investors in going in search of Japanese assets.3. BOJ has to deliver something that will truly surprise marketsAt this stage, traders are already expecting at least one rate hike by the BOJ by year-end. And looking to June 2027, traders are also pricing in ~72 bps of rate hikes by the BOJ already. That translates to three more hikes between now and the middle of next year.The remaining one priced in for this year fits with the current pace set by the BOJ i.e. moving roughly once every half year. And the two for the first half of next year basically means a slight step up in that pace.So even if the BOJ feels more bold, they have to deliver at least three rate hikes in the four meetings in 1H 2027 to really signal that they mean business. Otherwise, anything short of that will just fit with what markets have already priced in at best. And at worst, a more timid approach (as they are known for) will just put more pressure on the yen currency instead. That is should they walk back from any further aggressive signaling approach that we are seeing in recent weeks.In short, the onus and the pressure is on the BOJ to keep a more hawkish rhetoric and deliver something that will echo stronger across broader markets.Otherwise, currency traders have very much priced in what is to be expected above and it will take a lot more to really convince market players of any sustained reversal momentum in the yen trajectory.The only real hope now for the yen and the BOJ is that all this tough talk and narrative will eventually buy enough time for the US-Iran conflict to die down and turn into less of a headwind for the Japanese economy. Let's just say that has already been their game plan for at least five months, yet here we are and still no closer to the end of the war. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Well, it's starting to look like a feature and not a bug anymore. The latest credit data for the month of July sees China new bank loans fall into contraction again, shrinking by ¥340 billion. That is a miss on expectations, which were expecting lending to increase by ¥45 billion instead.That is a rather disappointing estimate and sees new yuan loans from January to July total to just ¥10.38 trillion. That is a marked fall compared to the ¥12.88 trillion total from January to July last year.This marks back-to-back July months now that China new bank loans have contracted. While it may be tied to some seasonal factors, weak household credit demand cannot be understated in being a drag on lending in the Chinese economy.Once again, data like this will just continue to cast doubts over the resilience of the Chinese economy despite the fact that top-level data continues to indicate that "everything is fine".While the property market crisis did lead to some slowdown in credit demand, the collapse in short-term borrowing by households is definitely starting to be more pronounced in recent months. So, this will be something to look out for if it continues as it does as seen above. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Q2 GDP second estimate +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q prelimPrior (Q1) +0.1%; revised to 0.0%There is no change to the preliminary estimate but there is a minor downgrade to the Q1 GDP estimate on the quarter, which is now seen flat instead of posting a marginal growth.Compared to the same quarter last year, euro area GDP in Q2 2026 is seen growing by 1.0% at least.In any case, this is very much a lagging data point by now. That as markets are turning their attention to renewed tensions in the Middle East, which is underpinning inflation risks. And that is likely to pressure the ECB into needing to act faster.Carry on as you will. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The dollar is trading on the softer side in European morning trade, nudging lower despite an absence of any major catalysts. The dollar drop comes amid a mixed mood in broader markets, so that's not giving a consistent look in the final stretch of the week.USD/JPY is down 0.2% to 159.13 currently but still keeping thereabouts and poised to end the week above the 159.00 level and around 0.8% higher. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is trading up 0.2% to 1.1553 and is now flat on the week. The currency pair continues to hold near the 100-day moving average (red line) but keeps below that with buyers not finding the right trigger for a technical break.[EUR/USD daily chart]Besides that, GBP/USD is up 0.3% to 1.3520 and AUD/USD up 0.2% to 0.7070 on the day as high beta currencies look to at least close the week just a touch higher against the dollar. It's not much but it points to some mixed moves among major currencies on the week. That as the US CPI report on Wednesday failed to really give any firm convictions to traders.And it's not just in the major currencies space. Today, we're seeing oil prices move back up with WTI crude up 1.2% to $82.25 and 10-year yields in the US up 2 bps to 4.66%. Despite the latter, the dollar is the one moving down today so it is definitely pointing to some mixed signals in ending the week.As for the equities space, we are seeing European indices hold more mixed today while US futures are looking rather tepid. That follows from the more positive showing in Wall Street yesterday, after the S&P 500 posted a record close. S&P 500 futures are only up 0.1% today with Nasdaq futures up 0.2%, though it is still early in the day. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Switzerland Q2 flash GDP +1.5% q/qPrior (Q1) +0.4%This is only the provisional estimate and may be revised after when the more detailed report is released, after around another 60 days. As such, there's not all too much detailed information on this one.The Swiss statistics office did note that:"The industrial sector made the largest contribution to growth, which was driven in particular by the chemical and pharmaceutical industry. The services sector also grew as a whole."In that lieu, it means that much of this "growth" is driven by a surge in chemical and pharmaceutical exports - especially to the US.Mind you, Swiss foreign trade saw a material rebound in Q2 as exports were seen up 8.8%. Exports to the US in particular were up 21.5% amid further tariffs threat to the pharmeceutical sector in April. So, the "growth" in both exports and trade (in turn GDP) seems to be driven by another round of frontloading to avoid a potential backlash from the tariffs threat before that was dropped in July. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

July final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelimPrior +1.8%July final HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelimPrior +2.0%French headline annual inflation is confirmed at 2.1% in July, amid a renewed increase in price pressures all around. Core annual inflation is also seen accelerating again, moving up to 1.3% in July - up from 1.0% in June.The headline estimate is exacerbated by a jump in energy price inflation again, which is up to 12.6% in July. That comes after the 11.0% estimate in June, which is still on the high side. The major bump in July owes much to a sharp move higher in gas prices (+17.7%) compared to the estimate in June (+10.4%).Meanwhile, services inflation is also seen increasing to 2.2% in July - up from 1.9% in the month before. Food price inflation also sees a minor increase to 1.0% in July - up from 0.9% in the month before.But all in all, it's still the more sticky figure in services inflation that is driving up core prices. And that will keep the ECB watchful especially if the trend keeps this way after the summer. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1550 level. The expiries here don't tie to any technical significance but may just offer a bit of a pull factor in keeping price action more limited in the session ahead.The currency pair remains locked below the 100-day moving average at 1.1566 currently. So, that remains the key technical ceiling that is keeping a lid on price action. As such, it would require a catalyst of sorts to really produce any notable price movements before we end the week.US-Iran developments continue to be in limbo and USD/JPY is not exactly threatening the 160 mark, so that is not seeing much danger for any added intervention play just yet. That being said, the latter is still a potential threat and could be a temporary drag for the dollar at any time. So, just be wary of that.Otherwise, there's not all too much in expecting any impact from the expiries above on price action today.Traders will mostly be left to their own devices in trying to figure out dollar sentiment, which is the stronger influence still for the time being.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

July wholesale prices +0.2% m/mPrior -0.7%July wholesale prices +5.3% y/yPrior +4.9%German wholesale prices nudged up in July, owing much to another bump in the price of petroleum products. The expiration of the temporary reduction in the energy tax rate on gasoline and diesel (which lapsed after 30 June) helped to see their price move up by 4.0% on the month. And relative to a year ago, the price of petroleum products are on average over 24% higher compared to July 2025.Besides that, prices of non-ferrous ores, metals, and semi-finished metal products dropped by 3.9% on the month but are still well higher compared to the same month last year (+27.8%).Meanwhile, the other increase in July was prices for information and communication technology equipment (+1.1% on the month). The category here is also seeing a marked increase compared to July last year (+9.0%), so that further amplifies the year-on-year estimate seen above.All in all, it just points to German wholesale prices continuing to nudge higher as a result of the US-Iran conflict. And not just in energy, even if that still represents the biggest chunk of the increase compared to how prices were trending a year ago. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The report says that the BOJ is eyeing to raise interest rates as soon as the September meeting next month and could even consider hiking more aggressively thereafter. The thinking is that the Japanese central bank would want to move from its current pace of hiking roughly twice a year to a much faster one.The sources noted that "an early rate hike has come into sight", adding that the BOJ "could also accelerate the pace of rate increases".They also note that with underlying inflation nearing the 2% target, the BOJ must start to be more sensitive towards the upside risks to prices. Adding that given the current context, the BOJ may not want to wait too long before delivering the next rate hike.Well, I don't think the report is saying much of what we don't already know about the BOJ. As things stand, market pricing is seeing the odds of a rate hike in September at ~61%. But for this year, traders are definitely seeing at least one more rate hike before we move to 2027 next. And there's only three more meetings for the BOJ to deliver that i.e. September, October, December.As for the supposed "quicker pace" of tightening, it's tough to imagine the BOJ being that bold after having been so timid for so many years now. They could've dug themselves out of this hole many a time but refused to move in months where they could have and instead opted to "play it safe" by waiting on more data to justify their conviction.Just looking back to the past year, we can already see two instances of that.One was when Takaichi took up the post as prime minister, and the BOJ could have made their move in September or October. Instead, they waited and had to then move in December.The other was in wanting to wait for the official outcome of the spring wage negotiations. And that was just bad or unlucky timing considering the US-Iran conflict. But still, they could've moved in January or March if they were bold enough to do so. Instead, they waited until June before deciding on that - which was very much delayed.The only plausible reason I can imagine the BOJ having to move quicker on rates, is that there is a discreet promise between the US and Japan on the latest joint intervention. That being the US offering up help to defend the yen currency but Japan also has to play ball in getting the BOJ to raise interest rates at a faster pace.So, there's that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

This builds from the technical position from yesterday here: Gold fails to find that additional spark from US inflation dataAs mentioned then, one of the potential plays for gold was:"With price action stalling in the past few days, the buying momentum is starting to run out of oomph. If we do see a break back below the 100-hour moving average (red line), that could signal further downside to around $4,325 with plenty of scope for a further retreat amid a lack of other buying catalysts for the time being. In short, buyers are still looking poised but have to do more before they run out of steam and lose some near-term control - which could lead to a bit of a retreat in the latter stages this week."That seems to taking shape with the drop now taking gold to test the 10 August lows $4,313-20 region. But in the bigger picture, the break below the 100-hour moving average (red line) is the most crucial thing. That now sees the near-term bias switch from being more bullish to more neutral instead.[Gold (XAU/USD) hourly chart]So, what's next for the precious metal?Buyers have had a good run last week to break back above $4,200 on a technical break. However, the buying momentum looks to stall amid a lack of further positive developments from the US-Iran conflict as well as sellers defending the 100-day moving average.That now sees some near-term exhaustion creep in as seen with the hourly chart above.While there is some minor support in the $4,310-25 level, I wouldn't pin that as being a key technical chokehold for gold prices looking to the end of this week and also for next week.The battle now turns to whether gold will push back to retest its 100-hour moving average (red line) or fall to test further downside at the 200-hour moving average (blue line) instead.A push back to the upside and break will invite another test of the 100-day moving average, seen at $4,386 currently.Meanwhile, a renewed downside test and break of the 200-hour moving average leaves plenty of room for gold to track back towards $4,200-25. And on a break of that, we could see a quick return towards $4,000 next. That should US-Iran developments keep as it is and underpin a more hawkish outlook for the Fed i.e. higher yields. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.