The AUDUSD moved below a key swing area between 0.6896 and 0.69088 yesterday, shifting the bias more to the downside. That break gave sellers more control and opened the door for further downside probing.In the early Asian session, the pair extended lower to 0.68707, but buyers stepped in, triggering a snapback rally. That rebound pushed the price back toward the broken swing zone, reaching 0.6912—just a few pips above the top of the area—but the move lacked follow-through. Sellers leaned once again, defending the prior support-now-resistance zone and rotating the price back lower.In early North American trading, the pair has remained mostly below the 0.6896–0.69088 zone, keeping the sellers in control. However, downside momentum has stalled somewhat, with the session low at 0.68707 holding for now. That creates a near-term battleground.What next?If sellers can break and stay below 0.68707, the focus shifts to the 61.8% retracement at 0.68603 (from the December low to the March high). That level is a key technical target. A move below it would increase the bearish tilt and open the door to a more extended decline, where support becomes less defined and more momentum-driven.On the topside, buyers would need to push the price back above 0.69088 to start neutralizing the bearish bias. Absent that move, rallies are likely to be viewed as selling opportunities.In the video above, I walk through the AUDUSD technicals and highlight the key levels that are defining risk—and the next directional move. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

From Jennifer Jacobs at CBS News:The Iranian response to the U.S. peace proposal is expected later today, sources familiar with the matter told Marg Brennan and me. President Trump and top White House officials have been told that Iran's counter-proposal would likely arrive Friday via interlocutors.It will be interesting to see if this gets published.I wonder if there is a path ahead where Iran gives up its nuclear materials for security guarantees and reopening Hormuz. That's a pretty small ask from Iran and Trump may still be able to describe it as a win.Trump and his deputies in yesterday's cabinet meeting heavily leaned on the nuclear messaging, saying that the goal of the mission in Iran was to prevent them from getting nuclear weapons. If they can say they decisively achieved that goal via the return of Iran's nuclear material, then they can walk away without damaging the global economy too much.Key to making it work might be dropping sanctions on Iran. From Iran's side this could be seen as 'reparations' but it would have little cost to Iran. On net, I put the probabilities of that outcome in the short term as low. What is clear is that Trump doesn't still want the Strait closed in May while markets struggle. For Iran, the longer they keep it closed, the more leverage they have.Alternatively, the US may escalate and Iran could see the threat to is electricity as a particularly large threat to the regime in general. If that's the case, they may settle for much less and could be eager to make a deal, as Trump stresses.For now, the market is bracing for more fighting rather than serious negotiations. That has WTI crude oil up $3.56 to $98.04 today and brent above $110. That's not yet 'shortage' pricing but if the blockade lasts another month, we will surely get there and that means much higher oil prices. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prudent to hold interest rates steady and await more clarity on what the Fed should do nextPace and uncertainty of changes around AI have made a lot of Fed officials 'uneasy'War, fast changes due to artificial intelligence have again clouded economic outlookEven before oil shock, progress on inflation was at risk of stallingHigher gasoline prices hit consumer sentiment, can crowd out other spendingSays he will be watching inflation and expectations data carefullyDemand has been steady but continues to feel 'narrow,' based on AI investment and wealthier householdsUnemployment is low, but labor market feels 'fragile,' firms see little wage pressure, multiple applicants for each job'Fog' again obscuring economic outlookRichmond Fed President Tom Barkin is out with a speech that leans heavily on a fog metaphor he first used a year ago — and he's not ready to retire it. Barkin painted a picture of an economy that's still moving forward but where visibility has gotten worse, not better. He pointed to AI disruption, the Iran-related oil spike, and lingering policy uncertainty as forces that have deepened the haze around the outlook and On the surface, the numbers look fine. GDP grew 2% last year, unemployment is hovering around 4.4%, and consumers are still swiping their cards. But Barkin made clear that the headline figures mask a fragility underneath. Job growth is essentially zero, and the only reason unemployment hasn't climbed is because fewer people are entering the workforce through reduced migration and boomer retirements.The demand picture is what stands out as particularly vulnerable. Barkin described strength as "narrow," concentrated in AI-related investment and spending by wealthier households — and he connected those two dots explicitly. An AI pullback would hit business investment and equities, which would then drag down consumption from the wealthy. It's a feedback loop that doesn't have a lot of redundancy built in.On inflation, he acknowledged progress but flagged that recent PCE data suggest things may be stalling — and that was before the oil shock hit. He rattled off a list of supply-side cost pressures since the pandemic that reads like a greatest hits of stagflationary impulses.On policy, Barkin backed the decision to hold rates and wait for clarity. He described the current fed funds rate as sitting at the higher end of the neutral range, which leaves room to move in either direction. But nothing in this speech suggests he's in any rush. The fog, as he sees it, hasn't burned off — and until it does, the Fed is content to sit in the car with the hazards on.Quotable:On the labor market: "Employers tell us that labor is freely available with multiple applicants for every position. They face very little wage pressure." On AI and hiring: "Even where demand is solid, employers are still reluctant to hire in the context of strong productivity, high uncertainty, and the potential impact of AI." The market is pricing in a 40% chance of a Fed hike in October or earlier. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Nvidia stock is trading at six-month lows after a 1.6% decline today.The chart is problematic as it bottomed near $170 three times since November but it's now broken that support and trading at the worst levels since September.The chipmaker is now testing the September lows, which stretch down to $164. Should that break, we will be at the lowest since July 2025 and it would also trace out an ugly head-and-shoulders pattern.While all eyes are on Iran at the moment, there is something of a reckoning ongoing in the AI space and software space. Tech shares have been underperforming all year and there's now broad pressure on the Mag 7 names. The fears are something of a barbell. One is that AI won't prove as valuable and transformative as expected, or at least not on a near-term timeline. The opposite fear is that it's so transformative that it undermines the employment market and leads to a recession, and huge political backlash.There is also the question of AI architecture. Memory names this week have been beaten up after Google unveiled a new algorithm that could allow more efficient use of memory storage. The memory names had previously been some of the highest flyers in markets anywhere.Note this chart of Micron, which was a market darling. This looks like a false breakout to the topside and now a reversal.As for Nvidia, should the September lows give way, the measured target would be somewhere around $130. That number is somewhat hard to fathom even though we were there in June.The consensus estimate for this year's earnings is $8.33 so that puts it at just 20x at current levels. At $130, it would be trading at just 15.6x in one of the fastest growing stocks in the world. I suppose the fear could be that there will be a peak in earnings as several companies (perhaps X, MSFT or Meta) drop out of the AI race and leave it to Google, Anthropic and OpenAI. The money could also dry up for the intense spending on chips, which could undermine the forward outlook. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Technology takes a hit, energy and consumer staples show strengthThe US stock market today presented a dynamic landscape, characterized by significant shifts across various sectors. Notably, the technology sector faced headwinds, while energy and consumer staples showed resilience in the turbulent market conditions.? Technology Sector: Facing ChallengesToday's market heatmap reveals widespread declines in the technology sector. Microsoft (MSFT) fell by 1.85% and Oracle (ORCL) decreased by 2.49%, demonstrating the sector's struggles. In semiconductors, Nvidia (NVDA) dropped 1.80%, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw a decline of 2.22%, pointing to investor concerns and potential profit-taking.? Energy Sector: Emerging as a WinnerIn contrast, the energy sector emerges with robust gains. Exxon Mobil (XOM) led the rally with a 2.21% increase, and Chevron (CVX) followed with a 1.50% growth. This uptick is largely attributed to rising oil prices, boosting investor confidence in energy stocks.?️ Consumer Staples: Stability and GainsThe consumer staples sector showed stability, with significant movements in major companies like Coca-Cola (KO) gaining 1.07% and Philip Morris (PM) rising 1.32%. This trend underscores the sector's defensive appeal in times of market volatility.Market Mood and TrendsThe overall market sentiment reflects a cautious approach, with investors displaying mixed feelings amidst varied sector performances. The downturn in technology contrasts with the stability in consumer staples and gains in energy, suggesting a shift in investor focus towards more secure and essential sectors.Strategic RecommendationsConsider reallocating investment towards energy and consumer staples to leverage their resilience.Remain cautious within the tech sector; monitor specific industry news and technological developments that could trigger changes.Diversification remains key; balancing technology with defensives such as energy and consumer staples might provide a safer cushion against tech volatility.By focusing on these sectors, investors can better navigate today’s dynamic market landscape. Stay informed with real-time updates and expert insights at InvestingLive.com. ?? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Iran-linked hackers publicly claimed to have breached the personal inbox of FBI Director Kash Patel. They published photographs of him and his purported resume.Reuters confirmed via a Justice Dept official that his emails were compromised but the FBI didn't immediately comment.Another notable Reuters report today is an exclusive that says the US can only confirm about one-third of Iran's missile arsenal has been destroyed with another one-third likely damaged, destroyed or buried.Trump and his team have touted numbers upwards of 90% but those are disputed here. Moreover, there is talk that Iran has been digging out its underground 'missile cities' at 27 reported locations in the country. The thinking is that while the entrances have been damaged, the facilities are deep under mountains and still intact.The same report says that about one-third of Iran's drones are destroyed.Despite a reported 10,000 US and Israeli strikes targeting Iran's war machine, on Thursday alone, Iran fired 15 ballistic missiles at the UEA and 11 drones, according to the UAE's Defense Ministry.The assessment highlights how Iran could sustain a war for months while continuing to block oil via the Strait of Hormuz.WTI crude oil was last up $2.53 to $97.01. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The NASDAQ and S&P indices continue to press lower, with both now breaking below last Friday’s lows — a shift that tilts the bias more firmly to the downside.For the S&P index, the break below 6477.16 is a key technical development. Staying below that level keeps sellers in control and opens the door for a move toward the next downside target near 6346.89. A break below that level would have traders looking toward the August swing low at 6212.69, followed by the 38.2% retracement at 6174. A move to that retracement level would represent roughly an -11.76% decline from the late January all-time high.For the NASDAQ index, the price has moved below 21522.75, also breaking last Friday’s low. Holding below that level keeps the bearish bias intact and shifts focus to the next target — a swing area between 20931 and 21033. Below that zone, the next key level comes in at the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 2025 low at 20491.80. A move to that level would imply a decline of around -14% from the January 2026 high.The key now is simple: Stay below the broken support levels, and sellers remain in control with clear downside targets. Move back above, and the break starts to lose momentum.In the video above, I outline these levels in more detail and explain why they matter — they define the bias, the risk, and the targets. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prelim was 55.5Prior was 56.6Conditions 55.8 vs 57.8 prelimExpectations 51.7 vs 54.1 prelim1-year inflation 3.8% vs 3.4% prelim (prior was 3.4%)5-year inflation 3.2% vs 3.2% prelim (prior was 3.3%)The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers is one of the most closely watched gauges of US household confidence. Based on telephone interviews with roughly 600 households, the index (benchmarked to Q1 1966 = 100) captures attitudes toward personal finances, business conditions, and buying plans for durable goods. Markets pay particular attention to its preliminary release — typically mid-month — because it sometimes (not as much as in the past) moves bond yields, equity futures and the US dollar.The preliminary March 2026 reading fell to 55.5, down from 56.6 in February but slightly above the consensus estimate of 55.0. Current conditions edged up to 57.8, while the expectations component dropped to 54.1 — its weakest since November 2025. Interviews conducted before the US military action in Iran had actually shown improvement, but readings over the subsequent nine days erased those gains entirely.Gasoline prices have historically been one of the most direct transmission channels into sentiment. The survey has long exhibited an outsized sensitivity to fuel costs because they are highly visible, frequently purchased, and disproportionately burden lower-income households. Survey director Joanne Hsu noted that gasoline prices exerted the most immediate impact on consumers in the March survey, though the degree of pass-through to broader prices remains uncertain. A broad swath of respondents across income levels, age groups, and political affiliations reported weaker expectations for personal finances, which declined 7.5% nationally.On inflation, one-year expectations held at 3.4%, halting six consecutive months of declines, while five-year expectations ticked down to 3.2% from 3.3%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Yesterday, the US and Israel assassinated the leader of Iran's navy and there are increasing signs that Iran is now taking a harder line on Hormuz.The WSJ reports that two container vessels belonging to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping were turned back from crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Friday morning.The IRGC also appeared to broaden its definition of who could cross to include the ports they're using:Any vessel traveling “to or from” ports belonging to allies and supporters of the Zionist–American adversaries is prohibited from transit, regardless of destination or route.The moves indicate that the trickle of traffic through Hormuz may now slow to only those ships that are loading in Iran, though I'm also watching Qatar as they've shifted rhetoric to be more neutral. Iran could also be bracing for some type of US 'boots on the ground' military operation this weekend in Kharg Island or some other area in the Persian Gulf.I think what matters for the market right now is the direction of travel for this war and -- despite Trump's comments -- it doesn't appear to be headed towards any kind of quick resolution. An Axios report a short time ago said the US is preparing for 'several' more weeks of war.That timeline is not conducive to a global economy that's increasingly seeing signs of a shortage of oil. The oil analysts are screaming from the rooftops about a shock to the oil market and the potential for $150 oil and those calls are increasingly resonant. The 10-20 million barrels that are locked out of the market now are a big problem and there's a growing possibility of strikes on oil production and processing facilities.Zooming out to the daily chart of S&P 500 futures, we're back to September levels and there isn't much support down to 6400. It will be tough for the market to rebound into a weekend where there are heightened risks of escalation, including ground attacks. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD has pushed to a new high for the week—and its highest level since January 20—in early North American trading. In doing so, the price has broken above a key swing area on the daily chart at 1.3860. That level was a clear bias-defining resistance, and the break tilts control more firmly in favor of the buyers.With that hurdle cleared, traders now shift their focus to the next upside target at the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the November high, which comes in at 1.3888. A move above that level would open the door for further upside momentum, with the next key target near 1.3928—an area defined by prior January highs and historical swing levels. That zone becomes a natural area where sellers may look to lean with defined risk.On the downside, if sellers are going to regain control, the first step is getting the price back below today’s low near 1.3446. That level held during the Asian and early European sessions and now serves as a short-term risk-defining support. A move below would disappoint buyers on the breakout and shift the bias more neutral in the near term.There is still more work for sellers to fully tilt the bias back in their favor, but holding above 1.3860 keeps the buyers in control. The playbook is straightforward: stay above resistance-turned-support and extend higher; fall back below and the breakout starts to fail.In the video above, I walk through these levels in detail and explain why they matter for defining bias, managing risk, and identifying the next targets. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump tried to calm down the markets and the situation in Iran by extending his 'deadline' to attack Iran's energy infrastructure by 10 days until April 6.That led to a quick jump in US stock futures and a drop in oil futures but it's since reversed. WTI crude is now up $2.57 to $97.07 while S&P 500 futures are down 32 points.While the initial reaction was upbeat that Trump was saying negotiations were going well, the market appears to be concluding that there will be no oil flowing for another 10 days (and around 110 million barrels) and that Trump might not be telling the truth on negotiations.Today, the Iran Revolutionary Guard also clarified its stance on friendly vs unfriendly passage of the Strait of Hormuz to say:Any vessel traveling “to or from” ports belonging to allies and supporters of the Zionist–American adversaries is prohibited from transit, regardless of destination or route.The port detail is critical because there was a scenario where oil could travel through the Strait to those friendly countries like China and India and essentially reorient supply while narrowing the daily gap to only 2-3 million barrels. The IRGC appears to be getting ready for a war with other Gulf countries, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia.There is also the weekend risk that's creeping into the market. Trump hasn't exactly been truthful during negotiations and likes to launch operations on the weekend. The US has been gathering soldiers in the region and we could see an attack on Kharg Island or some other part of Iran after the close today or Saturday morning. Whether that escalates the war or cripples Iran is yet to be seen.In terms of markets, one spot to watch is USD/JPY as that pair flirts with 160.00. That's a level that's invited intervention in the past, something that could roil broader markets.Update: Axios cites a Trump deputy saying he expects the war to continue to 'several' more weeks. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USD is kickstarting the North American session with a move to the upside. The menu of instruments are showing the USD higher, stocks lower, oil prices higher, and yields higher. The futures are implying Dow -170 points, the S&P down -25 points and the Nasdaq down -145 points (it tumbled -521 points yesterday). Looking at the treasury curve, the 2 year yield is up 1.4 basis points to 3.998%, the 10 year is ticking toward 4.50% with the yield currently up 4.6 basis points at 4.461%. Oil prices are trading at up near 2.5% and above $96. The video above takes a look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - from a technical perspective. What are the bias (bullish or bearish), the risks (in the short term that would disappoint the bias direction) and the targets on where the next technical levels need to be broken. Traders need the roadmap to navigate the fundamental headlines. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Oil prices extend into new highs amid weekend risk hedging as Trump's jawboning failsThe can being kicked down the road is not a good thing for marketsIRGC warns that Strait of Hormuz remains "closed", prohibits any passage by US alliesHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?ECB's Muller: Not sure we need to wait for fully visible second round effects to actECB policymaker Patsalides says no rush to raise interest ratesBOJ re-estimates Japan's estimated natural rate of interest after reviewBOJ would hike rates in April "if you think about it normally", says former governorSpain March preliminary CPI +3.3% vs +3.7% y/y expectedUK February retail sales -0.4% vs -0.7% m/m expectedMarkets:WTI crude oil up 3% to $97, Brent crude oil up 3% to $111S&P 500 futures down 0.5% after being up 0.7% in Asia tradingMajor indices in Europe down over 1% across the board, poised to erase early week gainsUSD steady, GBP lags on the day10-year Treasury yields up 4 bps to 4.46%Gold up 0.8% to $4,415Bitcoin down 3.3% to $66,667US president Trump's call to further delay strikes against Iran by another ten days is failing to provide much relief for markets as de-risking into the weekend takes priority.By prolonging the status quo, it doesn't really offer much respite for markets as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will extend for yet another week at least. That as Iran reaffirms that the waterway remains in de facto closure and that they won't budge in terms of loosening military restrictions, for now at least.As such, we're setting up for a battle on the ground perhaps and that won't ease the look and feel ahead of the weekend. Adding to that, the fact of the matter is nothing changes for markets until something changes with the Strait of Hormuz. And so, that's how things are playing out right now.Oil prices are ramping back higher with both WTI crude and Brent crude up 3% to $97 and $111 respectively. That continues to eat into the Monday drop as traders brush aside Trump's efforts to negotiate a "peace" deal.In turn, risk sentiment is starting to sour again as well with US futures slumping during the session. At the start of European morning trade, S&P 500 futures were up around 0.5%. But now, we're seeing futures down 0.5% instead as investors start to be on edge again.As such, we're seeing bond yields shoot higher with 10-year yields in the US already breaching the Monday highs at 4.46% currently. That is the highest level since July last year.Elsewhere, the dollar is keeping slightly firmer across the board as it holds gains into the final stretch of the week. EUR/USD is dipping back down towards the 1.1500 mark with USD/JPY continuing to tease a push above 160.00 on the day. The latter might invite Tokyo intervention, so just be watchful on that front.And looking at precious metals, gold and silver are both up a little but have seen stronger gains from earlier in the day fade. Gold is up 0.8% to $4,415 but off earlier highs near $4,475 with silver up 0.4% to $68.30 but off highs of $70.35 earlier today.Headline risks remain the main thing as we look to wind down the week. For now, it seems like markets are still feeling jittery and leaning towards de-risking rather than gamble on any positive surprises from the coming two-day break. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Oil prices are again rising into triple digit levels due to the lack of any breakthrough in the US-Iran “negotiations” and the increasing risk of an escalation over the weekend. Trump has been jawboning prices throughout the entire week with ceasefire comments and claims that Iran has been “begging” him for a deal. Meanwhile, the US military buildup in the Middle East increased the speculations of a potential ground invasion. Late yesterday, Trump extended the ceasefire through April 6, right as major equity indices were on the verge of breaking to new monthly lows and Treasury yields were pushing toward fresh highs. He claimed Iran requested the extension, but the Iranians denied such claim. It looked like another attempt to jawbone the market, but this time it didn’t have the same impact as earlier in the week and the losses were quickly faded. We might see more hedging into the weekend risk throughout the day which should keep oil prices supported into new highs.If we get a serious escalation over the weekend, we can expect WTI to open above the 120.00 handle and all the other markets in deep red. The probability of a recession at that point will be very high. On the 4 hour chart, we can see the slowly erosion of Monday’s losses as speculations of a potential ground invasion increased. Unless Trump jawbones prices again or we get a clear breakthrough, we can expect oil to rise back into the 102.00 resistance. If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the 78.00 support. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

ECB might not need to wait for fully visible second round effects before increasing ratesOnce energy prices have remained elevated for several weeks, one can already be reasonably confident that second round effects are likelyI would not be surprised if by the next policy meeting, elevated energy prices were already showing up more broadly in the prices of other goods and servicesIf that happens, we need to discuss whether that is already enough to justify an actionECB should monitor the situation, look at incoming data and be ready to act in a timely wayIf we decided to act at a particular meeting, that doesn't automatically predetermine the next stepMeasured steps are normally preferable as they come with less risk of disrupting the marketsWe are in a better position today to respond than we were in 2022ECB would get another labour market report in April, we will be looking at unemployment, the ECB wage tracker, wage developments and broader inflation developments before the next meetingThe longer the war in the Middle East lasts, the more likely that we will have to respondThe ECB may not need to wait for fully visible second-round inflationary effects before deciding to raise interest rates, according to recent insights from Governing Council member Madis Muller. The rationale suggests that once energy prices remain at elevated levels for several weeks, policymakers can be reasonably confident that these costs will eventually filter through the broader economy. There is a growing expectation that by the time of the next policy meeting, these persistent energy costs will likely have already begun to influence the prices of a wider array of goods and services.If such a trend becomes evident in the data, the central bank will need to decide on whether that shift alone provides sufficient justification for a policy adjustment. The current stance emphasizes a commitment to monitoring incoming data closely and maintaining the readiness to act in a timely manner. However, taking action at one specific meeting does not lock the ECB into a predetermined path. The ECB continues to stress a meeting-by-meeting approach as measured steps are generally seen as less risky and less likely to cause unnecessary disruptions to financial markets.The ECB currently finds itself in a better position to respond to economic shocks than it was during the challenges of 2022. Between now and the next meeting, policymaker will look carefully at the upcoming labor market report in April, unemployment, the ECB wage tracker, wage developments and broader inflation developments. The US-Iran war remains a key factor. The longer the conflict in the Middle East lasts, the higher the probability that a monetary policy response will be required.The market is currently pricing in a 70% chance of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting in April and a total of three rate hikes by year-end. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is out delivering a warning to all ships thinking about passing through the Strait of Hormuz amid the latest "cooling period" with the US. They are maintaining that the strait remains in de facto closure for now, adding that "any transit through the waterway will face harsh measures".And in taking aim at the US, the IRGC warns that any shipping involving "allies and supporters of the US-Israeli enemies" will be prohibited through any corridor or to any destination.This comes as Iranian local media also reports that three container ships of "various nationalities" have been turned backed from the strait after warnings from the IRGC.Come what may, actions speak louder than words.And the fact of the matter is, Iran is not surrendering any control of the strait and they're not loosening any restrictions on it either. Sure, they might let a few more vessels pass through in the days before but it really doesn't mean much when you compare the normal daily traffic flow from before the conflict started.I've shared this over the last few days but it is well worth a reminder. Even with Iran giving Trump a few "presents" in the past week, traffic along the Strait of Hormuz is pretty much dead.As mentioned earlier, nothing changes for markets until something changes on the Strait of Hormuz. For more context: The can being kicked down the road is not a good thing for markets This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +1.8%Retail sales +% vs +2.1% y/y expectedPrior +4.5%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) % vs -0.8% m/m expectedPrior +2.0%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +% vs +2.9% y/y expectedPrior +5.5%More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Using latest data, the estimate of the natural rate of interest is around -0.9% to +0.5%That estimate is as of Q3 2025BOJ latest estimation is based on six models, including time-series and structural modelsAlthough the range itself has not changed significantly, a closer look reveals that many of the estimates have recently been moderately on the riseThe rise reflects a rebound in Japan's potential growth rate after the Covid pandemic and also an environment in which wages and prices are both rising moderately becomes entrenchedFull assessmentAll that being said though, the BOJ does note that "there are many caveats when it comes to its (natural rate estimate) use in actual policy conduct". Adding that it is also still difficult to pin down the level of natural rate of interest in advance.But based on the statistical evidence, the BOJ will work with that to adjust the degree of monetary accommodation towards sustainably achieving its 2% price target.Once again, this looks to be just some added proof to cover all their bases. That after the releasing a new monthly core CPI estimate here yesterday.As mentioned then, the BOJ has come under quite a bit of scrutiny - not least from the Japanese government itself - on continuing to pursue the path of raising interest rates despite recent data showing some decline in underlying inflation pressures.So by estimating a higher level of the natural rate of interest, it is a signal that higher policy rates are needed to avoid conditions such as the economy overheating and/or to keep inflation in check. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.There is a large one for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level but it is not likely to factor much into play. That as the dollar is just losing minor ground after the gains from overnight trading. And that is despite Trump's attempt to jawbone risk sentiment by kicking the can down the road and continuing to talk up peace efforts in the Middle East.While that is helping to keep the market mood more positive for now, let's be reminded that the situation regarding the Strait of Hormuz hasn't changed whatsoever. As such, any hopeful optimism seen currently may yet be a false dawn with market players also needing to consider potential de-risking into the weekend.Trump's ten-day promise perhaps will ease some nerves but again, nothing changes until something does for the Strait of Hormuz. So, just remember that.Looking ahead to next week, month-end flows will be a key consideration and also some window dressing for Japanese stocks. That as the fiscal year in Japan will come to a close in March.I want to say that the latter will also be a factor for yen flows but that is typically aggregated out over the course of a few weeks since February already. And with the yen keeping pressured as it is, the repatriation flows aren't likely to do much to offset the overwhelming market sentiment since Takaichi took over as prime minister last October. So, there's that.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

And so the deadline gets pushed to 6 April now. It all started with 48 hours from the past Saturday and then another supposed 5 days from Monday. This is starting to drag on for quite a bit more than "just a couple of weeks". US president Trump is trying to calm the nerves as he delays escalating military actions and boasts "very substantial" talks with Iran.Once again, the latest development just serves to reaffirm that we are moving on to a new phase in the war. Iran has leverage via control of the Strait of Hormuz. And that is enough to push Trump's pain points on multiple fronts in markets. So, that's resulting in the US needing to dial back or risk upsetting markets even more before any of it gets better.The funny thing is we've seen this story before. It is the exact same playbook to how Trump played his cards with regards to China on trade/tariffs. And look how things turned out in the end.Fake trade deals aside though, what is happening with Iran might be different. The issue remains that the oil market is one that is rather sensitive and it really does have strong reverberations to the global economy. So even if there is a "peace" deal, what matters most is what will happen on the Strait of Hormuz.Trump was seen trying to brag about Iran giving the US a "present" by allowing some tankers to pass through the strait in recent days. However, the eight to ten tankers in total is rather inconsequential when you put things into context.We can see that there is a slight pick up on 23 and 24 March but it hardly compares to the usual 120 to 140 ships passing through on a daily basis before the conflict.When you take that into consideration, a prolonged timeframe in which the status quo remains isn't a good thing for broader market sentiment. It just means with every passing day that oil supply gets tighter and the risk for energy disruption across the Gulf region will continue.Yes, kicking the can down the road might prevent "bad" news from what we can see in terms of military strikes, explosions, and casualties. However, that just continues to mean that markets are caught in limbo for an extended period of time with the oil market tightening further and countries needing to dig deeper into their reserves more and more.From an economic standpoint, it's an awful scenario to just keep prolonging the status quo. As said before, nothing changes for markets until something changes on the Strait of Hormuz.That is the most important detail to remember. So even if there is some light sense of relief from Trump's postponement yesterday, it doesn't mean much unless Iran loosens their grip over movement along the strait. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.