Welcome to the follow-up piece to our individual Stock Market leaders analysis.Yesterday's analysis took a close look at two names that have had a pretty volatile performance in the past week: Nvidia and Meta.Get access to the analysis right here:Read More: AI Leaders Outlook: Technical Analysis of Meta and Nvidia StocksToday's Index action was more volatile than yesterday, with bulls pushing to an early morning surge before mean reversion flows stepped in, leading to a sharp slowdown in momentum. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (14:17 A.M.) – December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current lack of conviction may be partially due to traders being preoccupied with the World Cup Qualifier event, which is pulling volatility out of the market.In any case, there will be only two and a half trading sessions before the December 9th-10th FOMC rate decision, and after such volatile runs, expect things to settle down as institutions prepare for the week ahead.Let's dive right into Weekly and intraday charts analyses for the two remaining tech giants: Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet, more widely known as Google (GOOG). Read More:Loonie rallies after Canada adds 54,000 jobs in major employment beatMarkets Weekly Outlook - FOMC Rate Cut Countdown, Economic Projections May Hold the KeyUS stocks hesitant rally: Markets pass the Core PCE and U-of-Mich data barMicrosoft (MSFT) – The picture isn't prettyWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Microsoft Weekly Stock Chart. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Microsoft's Forward Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio – 32.50 ~ Highs but historic for the firmMicrosoft had been invincible since its 2023 $213.44 lows, but as momentum for AI and Tech spending slowed down, the leader turned into one of the most targeted stock for profit-taking.Victim of some pessimistic news at the beginning of the week, the stock gapped lower before coming back timidly.This is creating a balanced picture throughout which can lead to some surprising breakouts (either to the upside or the downside).The Weekly RSI is tilting more bearish however, so the higher timeframe isn't looking so great.Let's see what the intraday timeframe has for us.8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Microsoft 8H Stock Chart. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, the stock is evolving in a downward channel.Still, the action is seeing a counter-trend bullish move which will have to push further to close the week above.Momentum is hesitant to say the least; most recent candles have been dojis so MSFT traders might just be awaiting a catalyst to move forward, maybe the FOMC or some better news.In the bigger picture, two key levels will be coming into play for Microsoft trading:For bulls, they will be looking to push for a daily close above the $494 Weekly highs, which infers a breakout of the downward channel.A close below $475 implies a break of the counter-up trend which would continue the downward momentum.The next support will be found between $455 to $465 – Close to the November lowsMicrosoft Technical levels of Interest:Resistance Levels$540 to $555 All-time Highs ResistanceMid-Year range resistance $510 to $520Weekly Highs for Bulls to breach $493.44Current All-time Highs $795.71Support LevelsRecent Support $580 to $600 – Watch reactions if it breaks$581.25 November lows2024 & Liberation Day Major Support $450 to $4902021 Highs $382.00August 2023 Key Rebound Zone $272.70Google – Pulling the Market higherWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Google Weekly Stock Chart. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Google's Forward Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio – 28.70 ~ Far from extremeGoogle is the stock of this late AI-rally, going exponential since crossing back above its early 2025 record in September.Not seeing any considerable retracement since, the progress higher has been flawless.If you think about it, Alphabet is positioned to capture benefits from AI:Gemini 3 was a revolutionary update, they already have their in-house AI chips production in place, and are already making benefits compared to most of its competitors in these fields.Momentum is going a bit ballistic however, which tends to be a great thing for stocks but can also be met with sharp corrections during any selloff.Remember that overbought, doesn't always rhyme with imminent tops – A costly lesson during equity bull-markets.8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Google 8H Stock Chart. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Short-timeframe momentum seems to be slowing down after a long while and thorough breakouts for the firm.A failed breakout above its upward channel may point to a retest of lower levels. With its momentum still flawless for now, the retracement should not be too consequent.Expect some small-dip buying at $300 at a retest of the Gap, and in the situation of a bigger retracement, $280 to $290 looks like an ideal entry point for the Market leader.If we do get there, keep an eye on what flows and news lead the selloff. A healthy retracement wouldn't hurt the stock but at the same time, traders will be cautious of any correction these days.Google Technical levels of Interest:Resistance Levels$320 to $330 All-time Resistance (currently testing)$328.67 Current ATHFib-Induced Potential resistance and Psychological Level $350Support Levels$300 psychological level and gap-up mini supportHigh-timeframe pivot $270 to $290 acting as support$250 Support$200 to $210 Early 2025 peakLiberation Day Support $140 to $1502022 and 2023 lows between $80 to $100Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (05/12/2025): In today's episode, Christian, Nick, and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss the latest in central bank monetary policy expectations, including the RBA, BoE, and Fed, alongside the recent PCE numbers released earlier today. Otherwise, Nick sheds some light on the continued unwinding of the yen carry trade and further implications for precious metals. Join OANDA Financial Writer Christian Norman, Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review: Markets Buoyed Ahead of FOMC Meeting The week draws to a close with risk assets largely buoyed by the prospect of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.On Friday, the main US stock market indexes all moved slightly higher. The Dow Jones gained 236.46 points (a 0.49% rise), the S&P 500 increased by 31.44 points (a 0.46% gain), and the Nasdaq rose by 131.27 points (a 0.56% increase).Read More: US Dollar Index (DXY) Slips as Rate Cut Bets Remain Unchanged Post US PCE and University of Michigan DataLooking ahead to next week, Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to have a significant debate: should they lower interest rates, or keep them steady? The core issue is that while prices remain difficult to control (stubborn inflation) and the job market is still surprisingly strong (resilient), some Fed members are hesitant to cut rates.Other employment-related data still does not suggest a quick slowdown in hiring, which gives those who prioritize fighting inflation (the "hawks") a stronger argument. Despite this internal debate, investors in the market still anticipate that the Fed will go ahead and cut rates by another quarter-point sometime by June 2026. zoom_out_map Source: CME FedWatch Tool Heading into the decision, Wall Street indexes are all near all-time highs with the hope that the Federal Reserve meeting will serve as a catalyst for fresh all-time highs to be printed. Will such a move materialize?How Did the US Dollar and FX Perform? The US dollar was slightly weaker on Friday but generally stayed within its recent trading range against other major currencies.The dollar's strength index (DXY) dipped 0.2%, landing at 98.906, which is close to its weakest point in the past five weeks.Meanwhile, the euro gained slightly, reaching 1.1651 against the dollar.The Japanese yen remained mostly unchanged on Friday at 155.15 per dollar, taking a pause after recent days of strength driven by speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might raise its interest rates later this month. Reports from both Bloomberg and Reuters suggested that BOJ officials are indeed prepared to raise rates on December 19th unless there is a significant unexpected economic event.The Canadian dollar strengthened by the most in six months against its US counterpart on Friday and bond yields jumped, as stronger-than-expected domestic jobs data boosted bets the Bank of Canada would begin raising interest rates next year.Finally, the British pound (Sterling) also rose 0.2%, trading at 1.335 and nearing its highest level in six weeks.Read More:WTI Rangebound: How Stalled Peace Talks & OPEC Strategy Will Shape the Oil MarketGold (XAU/USD) Price Reclaims $4200/oz Handle. Are Bulls Ready for a Test of $4300/oz?The Week Ahead - Fed in Focus, RBA & BoC Rate Decisions Ahead The week ahead will see market focus on the Federal Reserve rate decision. There is also rate decisions from Canada and Australia but given the stature of the US economy and its ability to affect overall market sentiment, the RBA and BoC decisions will likely be overshadowed.Asia Pacific MarketsThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep its main interest rate unchanged at 3.6% next Tuesday. Since recent reports showed that both inflation and economic growth were stronger than expected, it's now much less likely that the RBA will cut interest rates again. This suggests that the central bank might be finished with its current cycle of lowering rates.China's trade activity is expected to grow only moderately. Although the recent trade agreement and reduced tariffs from the U.S. should help Chinese exports, the way the numbers are calculated (base effects) will keep the growth rate low. For November, I forecast exports to grow by 3.3% and imports by 3.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of about $100.3 billion.Separately, China’s inflation rate is predicted to continue its recovery, rising to 0.5% for the year, which is a positive sign after it recently moved back above zero. This is largely because the falling price of food is no longer dragging down the overall inflation number, and the prices of non-food items are starting to rise. While inflation remains quite low, it is important to prevent a sustained period of falling prices (deflation) to keep long-term spending and investment healthy. Since inflation is still low, it will likely not be a major factor in the People's Bank of China's interest rate decisions.FOMC to Steal the ShowThe Federal Reserve (US) is expected to cut its interest rate by $0.25\%$ this Wednesday. While some worry that new tariffs could keep prices high (inflation), the main reason for the cut is the growing concern about the weakness in the job market, which important Fed members have recently noted. Along with the decision, the Fed will release new predictions, which are likely to suggest only one more rate cut in 2026.However, this long-term outlook might not significantly affect the market's expectations which currently price in two or three cuts for 2026 because the composition of the Fed's voting committee and leadership (including the Chair, Jerome Powell) could change drastically under the new administration.Separately, Canada is likely to take a break from its recent series of interest rate cuts this Wednesday. Stronger-than-expected recent growth and employment figures support this pause, though we still anticipate one final cut early in 2026 due to ongoing trade risks with the US.Finally, for the UK, I expect to see an improvement in the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Friday. The previous drop in September was mainly because a cyberattack stopped production at a major car company, but since that production has restarted, October's GDP numbers should bounce back. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. GMT time (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index This week's Chart of the week is the US Dollar Index (DXY)From a technical perspective, the DXY has had a change in structure having taken out the November 14 swing low around the 99.00 handle.Thursdays daily candle closed as a hammer offering bulls some hope. However, as has been the case of late any attempt at a bullish move has been met by swift selling pressure.The period-14 RSI remains below the 50 mark which is a sign of bearish momentum.Immediate support is provided by the 100-day MA which rests at the 98.58 before the 98.00 and 97.70 handles come into focus.Upside resistance may be found at the 200-day MA around 99.51 before the 100.00 psychological level and the 100.61 level come into focus.The Dollar Index trajectory may depend on the economic projections for 2026. Any sign that the Fed see more than one rate cut in 2026 could send the DXY sliding with a test of the YTD low a possibility depending on how dovish the Fed outlook is.Alternatively, a hawkish stance could have the opposite impact. This would be similar to what we witnessed after the previous Fed meeting in October.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart - October 17, 2025 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Be Nimble and Trade Safe.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

UK gilt yields may rise toward 6%, reflecting mounting fiscal strain and investor concernsPersistent outflows from UK equity funds signal weak confidence despite temporary market calmCommodities and mining stocks support the FTSE, contrasting with broader economic instability The British economy is facing serious fiscal challenges that are increasing tensions in the bond market and may affect the pound’s exchange rate. Despite the government’s declarations about maintaining budget balance, experts warn that the tax increases announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves are too dispersed to meaningfully strengthen public finances and ease pressure on debt markets.A prospect of 6% yieldsDavid Zahn of Franklin Templeton forecasts that the yield on 30-year UK government bonds could reach 6%, highlighting the government’s difficulties in financing rising expenditures. The current spread between UK and German bonds of the same maturity stands at 176 basis points, and 78 basis points relative to France, placing the UK among the most expensive developed countries in which to borrow. zoom_out_map Yield on 30-year UK bonds and spread between UK, German, and French bonds, source: TradingView Zahn, who sold all his UK bonds back in March, believes that only a further rise in debt-servicing costs will force the government into genuine fiscal adjustment. As he puts it: “Eventually yields will be so high that the government won’t be able to sweep the problem under the carpet any longer.”Questionable revenue and political riskAlthough Reeves has pledged to increase the “fiscal buffer” and avoided the most controversial tax hikes (such as taxes on pension withdrawals or capital gains), rating agencies and think tanks doubt the long-term stability of the plan. zoom_out_map Fund Flow Index, source: Calastone November also saw the second-worst outflow from UK equity funds in history—investors withdrew £3 billion, reflecting market tensions ahead of the budget announcement. Only after the budget was published did the outflows stop, suggesting investors feared radical changes that ultimately were not introduced.GBP: Short-term relief, long-term risksThe pound has recently appreciated against a weakening dollar, and the bond market calmed after the budget release. However, by the end of the European session, GBP/USD met resistance at the 200-period SMA, which also aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline seen between September and November this year. Structural issues within the UK economy—high debt levels, low growth, and weak investment sentiment—remain unresolved. zoom_out_map Daily timeframe of GBPUSD, source: TradingView Meanwhile, investors continue to avoid UK funds—only one month out of the last 55 saw a net inflow of capital. The government is attempting to stimulate the market through measures such as tax incentives for new listed companies and changes to the ISA system to encourage equity investment.Strong commodities and decorrelation in the energy marketAgainst the backdrop of fiscal problems, the commodities sector remains the one bright spot in the UK market—copper and gold prices are hitting records, supporting mining companies’ valuations. The FTSE 100 owes much of its strength to the rising weight of mining stocks in the index. The energy sector (FTSE 350 Energy) has also seen gains recently despite falling oil prices, likely driven by high dividends and share buyback programmes. However, investors should be aware that valuations may not hold if the geopolitical situation improves—for instance, if peace is achieved in Ukraine. Today the index recorded losses of more than 1.76%. zoom_out_map FTSE 350 Energy index compared to Brent crude prices, source: TradingView The UK is at a turning point. A relatively strong currency and buoyant commodities sector contrast sharply with deep concerns over the stability of public finances. The prospect of rising bond yields and tax uncertainty may, in the coming months, once again increase the government’s financing costs and weaken investor confidence in the pound and UK assets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Equities have gone into yet another spectacular run but after delivering a strong open, they start to show some hesitancy.As the Bureau of Labor Statistics reopened, traders were initially concerned that the first public US data releases wouldn't be supportive of a December Fed cut—a worry that partially fueled the mid-October to end-November struggle. However, since NY Fed President Williams appeared with a dovish speech that reset expectations, things have been back to normal, almost as if nothing happened the past two months.The rebound has been massive: The Dow Jones is trading close to 48,000, the S&P 500 came shy from 6,900, and the Nasdaq is less than 2% from its all-time highs after a mid-month 9% correction. zoom_out_map US Data this morning – December 5, 2025 – Source: MarketPulse Economic Calendar The bullish narrative found further strength today: an as-expected Core PCE release (the Fed's preferred gauge) combined with encouraging inflation expectations from the University of Michigan report and Tuesday's ADP Labor miss not only support the 25 bps cut and even further cut pricing into 2026. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (11:07 A.M.) – December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Elevated equity levels require such rate accommodation to maintain their performance, particularly at this point in the cycle where tech and growth firms need lower financing rates to sustain high Capital Expenditure for AI infrastructure.Enough economic talks; Some small profit-taking at the highs is currently ongoing, so let's dive into the Indexes intraday charts for Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 as they look to conclude yet another green week. Read More:Loonie rallies after Canada adds 54,000 jobs in major employment beatMarkets Today: Asian & European Shares Mixed as German Factory Orders Rise. US PCE Data Remains the FocusAI Leaders Outlook: Technical Analysis of Meta and Nvidia StocksDaily Outlook for Major US Indexes zoom_out_map US Main Indices Daily Outlook. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 8H Chart – December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView After a huge open taking the index to new Monthly highs (48,131), some sellers appear to defend the 48,000 level.With the strictly positive week, traders haven't taken a break from the buying and it seems that as such flows start to lose some steam as can be seen with the descending RSI.They are locking in some profits as next week's pivotal FOMC approaches.Keep an eye on the 48,000 level:A close below indicates further caution after such a swift move higher and may indicate selling action ahead of the FOMC.Any selling flow should maintain above the 47,000 psychological level, except for any sudden fundamental change.Above the key level, optimism stays at its peak and this sentiment should drag all the way to the Fed Meeting.Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 48,459Psychological resistance at 48,000 +/- 100 pts (immediate test)Session highs 48,131Support LevelsKey Pivot zone 47,500 - 47,650Higher timeframe Support 47,000 to 47,20046,000 +/- 300pts Immediate SupportTuesday Lows 45,92545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 8H Chart – December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq has held an even-stricter bullish momentum this week, forming a bull channel that solidly acted as support on most pullbacks.Similarly as in the Dow, Sellers are appearing around the last resistance before the all-time highs, attempting a break at the Market open but seeing some intermediate rejection.The RSI is holding strong, not showing any detail of what to expect here but some key levels are coming into play around here:Breaking the daily highs (25,833) and closing above maintains the track to a test of the all-time highs ahead of the FOMCRejecting and closing below would test the lower bound of the upward channel (25,500) which coincides with the Major Momentum Pivot.Breaking lower should still see rangebound action with the 25,000 Support acting as a key barrier.It would be a rare event to see a huge breakdown with no data expected before Wednesday's event. Still, keep an eye on Magnificent 7 Stocks in case anything happens there (like Nvidia, or Meta which haven't had the most bullish cases)Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levelsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (immediate test)Session highs 25,833All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support LevelsMajor Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsSupport 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main support and Pivot (recent rebound)October lows 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 8H Chart, December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Even after a strictly positive week for the S&P 500, it seems that the broader environment is starting to look more like a big consolidation rather than a full regaining of the bull-trend.Failing to breach 6,900, sellers may just appear to take the upper hand on the short-run.Still, psychological levels will be essential for the Index:6,850, the lower bound of the mid-term resistance, will be a level to hold to avoid further mean-reversion.Any close above 6,900 points to a quick test of the all-time highsA rejection below 6,800 should still see support at the 6,750 level, accompanied by the 50-period MA.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)Session highs 6,896Current Resistance 6,850 to 6,880 (testing)ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological PivotSupport 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Despite a rough monthly open, the US Dollar is currently trading within a key technical range, a factor that holds FX Markets firmly in balance despite some individual breakouts seen in pairs like NZD/USD or GBP/USD.As is often the case ahead of pivotal events like the FOMC, the Dollar may test relative extremes, but it rarely poses definitive breakout situations.The best example of this was ahead of the September Fed Meeting, where the Dollar rushed to make new lows but was inevitably constrained by the bounds of its previous yearly support zones.The catalyst for the current downside came from NY Fed President John Williams' speech on November 21, which fundamentally shook markets by reintroducing rate cut hopes. His dovish comments took the 25 basis point cut pricing from 20% all the way to the current stable 87%. This rapid repricing triggered a swift selloff in the Dollar over the past two weeks of trading. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 8H Chart. December 4, 2025– Source: TradingView But, as mentioned in our recent in-depth analysis of the Greenback, the Dollar Index is still maintaining a broad range on the bigger picture, having tested its 200-period Moving Average (and range lows) and currently bouncing above 99.00.The range highs on the Dollar Index is located at the 100.00 level.Today, we will look at three key FX Majors and their intraday timeframes to see how the range in the Dollar Index affects their own currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD. Read More:AI Leaders Outlook: Technical Analysis of Meta and Nvidia StocksSanta Claus Rally Strategy: How to Trade the S&P 500's Most Reliable Seasonal PatternUSD/JPY drops below 155.00: Has the 2025 yearly top been reached?EUR/USD 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map EUR/USD 8H Chart. December 4, 2025– Source: TradingView As mentioned in our November 25 post (On the US Dollar rejecting its range highs), EUR/USD is maintaining a wide Range between 1.15 to 1.17.As often, the range gets confirmed with:Rejection of price after reaching overbought/oversold levels in the RSIFlatlining Moving Averages, particularly the MA 200Currently rejecting its highs, the current setup is one of a sell with a potential stop at range extremes (Above 1.17).Sellers are currently pushing below the 200-period Moving Average (1.16455), the rejection confirms with a 1H Close below. Levels of interest for EUR/USD TradingResistance levels1.1630 to 1.1670 Pivot zone (range Highs)1.1750 mini-resistanceResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 ZoneWeekly highs 1.1656Support levels1.1470 to 1.15 range support4H MA 200 Mini-support 1.161901.1475 to 1.15 Support Zone1.1350 to 1.14 SupportSession lows 1.14966USD/CAD 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/CAD 8H Chart. December 4, 2025– Source: TradingView The rangebound characteristics of USD/CAD are less obvious, but taking a step back, the North American pair has stopped trending since reaching its November and cycle highs.Holding firmly between 1.39 and 1.40, the currency pair has been seesawing within the 1,000 pip range since the final days of November.With traders not knowing what to do with the US-Canada deal (it seems like the Canadian government also doesn't know), rangebound conditions also make fundamental sense.In the case of a break, watch for a daily close above or below to avoid getting trapped.Note to traders that news on a trade-deal might move things in a flash.Levels of interest for USD/CAD TradingResistance Levels1.40 Major Pivot acting as resistanceCycle highs 1.4143 and Double topResistance between 1.4120 to 1.4145Key resistance 1.4250Support Levels1.39 to 1.3925 Higher timeframe pivot, current support1.38 Major support +/- 150 pipsAugust range support 1.37501.3550 Main 2025 SupportUSD/CHF 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/CHF 8H Chart. December 4, 2025– Source: TradingView USD/CHF is also stuck within two ranges – A large half-year range between 0.7850 to 0.8140 and another, smaller one but more active: 0.80 to 0.81We will focus on the smaller timeframe consolidation, also 1,000 pip large.Buyers are stepping in from the 0.80 Zone after bouncing on the 200-period Moving Average (1.79930).The current candle is strong, with the ongoing rebound in the USD. Check out reactions at the highs of the range.Levels of interest for USD/CHF TradingResistance levels0.8075 to 0.81 Range highs0.81244 November highsMain resistance 0.8150 to 0.820.82144 June HighsSupport levels0.80 Range Lows, Higher timeframe Pivot0.7950 Higher timeframe Support0.78575 2025 lows supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 3The central theme of today’s session is once again, the only subject of concern for Markets (and for the right reasons): next week’s FOMC Meeting – 5 more sessions to go!The 85%+ pricing for a 25 bps cut had been subject to volatility, but this morning’s ADP miss largely anchors it at elevated levels.With ISM Services producing a beat (52.6 vs. 52.2 exp), but Prices Paid regressing, almost nothing stands in the way of a Fed cut, with tariff-led inflationary pressures remaining contained.This helped cryptocurrencies to stay around the highs reached yesterday amid their ongoing rebound, but most importantly, allowed stock indexes to perform in yet another huge day. The session was particularly fruitful for Industrials and Small Caps, with the Dow up 1% at the session close and the Russell 2000 up 1.80%. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (Session close) – December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView An almost perfect mirror of yesterday's session!The DJIA closed the session very near the 48,000 level.Even the Nasdaq, which had been selling off earlier due to a Microsoft scare, was brought higher by the strictly positive inflows in the afternoon.In other Markets, Gold initially gained momentum in the session but gave up most of its gains in the afternoon, while other precious metals remained muted.Copper, on the other hand, is reaching some 6-month highs in COMEX and new Highs in London as closed mines, tariffs, and low exchange supply continue to underpin prices. Read More:Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView Global assets have been subject to quite some wild swings, with some resilience in Risk-Assets.Bitcoin stayed elevated as it consolidates its prices around $90,000, the Dow beat all other major stock Indexes and the US Dollar took another hit.A classic debasement trade day.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 3 – Source: OANDA Labs Today was all about US dollar weakness, dragging the Loonie to its depths and as the same time, pushing all currencies, particularly the Europeans bouncing higher – With GBP on top.Check out our recent analysis for GBP/USD right here!A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The evening session will provide Trade Data for Australia, very important for the Aussie – The Australian economy is a large exporter.The early morning session shall see the release of EU Retail Sales at 5:00 A.M. with a small beat (+0.1% M/M) expected.But the real show will start in the US, once again fairly early with the Challenger Jobs Cut at 7:30 A.M. – Keep a note on this one as it was quite a mover last month.An hour later, public Jobless Claims data will also be in the center of attention. The past releases haven't corroborated with the trend seen in ADP, so it'll be an interesting watch.At 10:00 A.M, CAD traders will welcome the Ivey PMI data which looks to shed some light as the Loonie gets dragged lower once again.Don't forget the several Central Bank speakers including Fed's Bowman – However, don't expect comments on Monetary Policy as the Blackout stands all the way to next Wednesday.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

North American stock markets largely recovered, particularly Tech, turning what was a scary correction into a small retracement since last week. Most Indices now hover close to their all-time highs, with the Nasdaq remaining the furthest from its peak, down a measly 2.30% from its end-October record.The December 10 FOMC cut is now a quasi-certainty, with a few bouts of lower data since last Thursday beginning to set the stage for another cut in January (currently priced at 27%). zoom_out_map Pricing for January 28 2026 FOMC meeting – Source: FedWatch Tool Private employment has sent a warning of regressing employment numbers since early November, as seen with ADP's new weekly series throughout last month. Numbers from this morning’s monthly report, which connects to the Challenger Layoffs report that shook markets last month, are also notable – By the way, the next Challenger report is due tomorrow.Concerns over this weakening private labor sector are justified, as Jerome Powell based the Fed's first cut in September 2024 (from 5.50% to 5%) on this exact premise.To complement the data, inflationary pressures appear to be easing: the ISM Prices Paid data is regressing (though it remains high), and Import prices are unchanged from this morning’s releases (September data, but still positive news).Adding a political layer to the Fed debate, President Trump verbally called for the nomination of NEC Director Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair. Wall Street is seemingly uneasy about this choice, but looking at the Market today, things are far from priced in.Trump is famous for judging his own performance by looking at the Stock Market, so he might take some time to think about this one.On the northern border, Canadian data has started to show more upside after a strong rebound in their Q3 GDP, and this morning’s Labor Productivity report came in better than expected.While Canadian PMIs are still telling another story, the land of maple syrup is at least sending signs of life – Could the CAD make a comeback in 2026? Read More:Nasdaq Index Outlook: Microsoft (MSFT) scares Markets despite strong Services PMI reportBitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Alert: Bitcoin Breaks Major Resistance - Next Stop $100,000?GBP/USD reaches 1.33, on top as ADP Employment Miss sends the dollar in a limboNorth-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView Most North American Indexes are up between 3% and 5% while the US Dollar is down 1.50% – This is a textbook example of what happens when Dovish Monetary policy gets priced in. Keep note!Dollar Index 8H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 8H Chart, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar took a huge hit this week after staying resilient throughout last week's Fed Cut repricing.It seems that there is quite a lag between the moment a cut prices back and actual movement in the Greenback. Still, other dynamics like the Next Fed Chair are also playing their part in this week's movement.For now, the range mentioned in our recent in-depth analysis still holds, but could crack lower if weak data persists. Things will materialize on Friday after the Core PCE report.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highsTop of channel and psychological level at 101.0099.60 to 99.80 mini-resistance now pivotSupport LevelsHigher timeframe Pivot 98.80 to 99.00 (testing lower bound)Weekly lows 98.82 and 8H MA 200Mini-support 98.50Main support 98.00August Range support 97.25 to 97.60US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, December 3, 2025 - Source: TradingView This chart shows well how individual pairs have been reacting since last week after Fed's Williams influential comments.Always keep an eye on his speeches!Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, December 3, 2025 - Source: TradingView. Another classic week for the Loonie: A bounce after Thursday's GDP data got met with some mean-reversion.The drops in the CAD are getting more limited as time goes but overall, it still remains sold on pops.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 8H Chart, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD is correcting quite largely after reaching new cycle highs just two weeks ago.Now under its 8H 200-Period MA, the outlook for the pair is bearish but will have to break and close below the Higher timeframe pivot (1.3925) if bears want to retake full control.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels1.40 Major Pivot acting as resistanceCycle highs 1.4143 and Double topResistance between 1.4120 to 1.4145Key resistance 1.4250Support Levels1.39 to 1.3925 Higher timeframe pivot, current support1.38 Major support +/- 150 pipsAugust range support 1.37501.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The rest of the week will be the final crucial data points towards Next week's rate decision.Thursday morning starts with Challenger Job Cuts which will be tracked closely due to their impact during the BLS shutdown. This gets followed immediately by the weekly Initial Jobless Claims (08:30 A.M. ET). Markets will be looking for any cracks in employment trends that could sway the Fed's tone. CAD traders also get a look at business activity with the Ivey PMI at 10:00 A.M. ET.Friday, however, is the main event:The spotlight will be entirely on the Core PCE Price Index (08:30 A.M. ET), the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.With the consensus holding steady at 2.9% YoY, any surprise here will directly dictate the market's pricing for next week's interest rate decision.Simultaneously, CAD traders face their biggest release of the month: the Net Change in Employment and Unemployment Rate. Expectations are flat (0K jobs added), so any major deviation could spark significant volatility for the Loonie.The week wraps up with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations at 10:00 A.M. ET.Crucial Note: Apart from these final data points, the calendar is effectively clear. There won't be anything of significance until the FOMC meeting next Wednesday, making Friday's close critical for positioning.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Reclaims $4200/oz Handle. Are Bulls Ready for a Test of $4300/oz?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has successfully rebounded, passing the important $93,000 price point that many market participants have been watching. This comeback is seen as a necessary relief rally, pushing Bitcoin's price up to $93,007.12, which marks a 6.6% increase in just the last 24 hours.After several weeks of falling prices, this price reversal seems strong and is supported by three main factors working together: significant changes in global economic policies (macroeconomic policy shifts), the fact that large investment firms can now easily buy and sell Bitcoin (unprecedented institutional distribution access), and certain patterns on the price charts that suggested a bounce was due (highly compressed technical indicators). zoom_out_map Source: TradingView The Factors Influencing Bitcoins Recovery First, the US central bank (Federal Reserve) has officially ended its program of removing money from the economy (Quantitative Tightening or QT), which means they are now moving toward a policy that makes money more easily available (accommodating monetary policy). This boost in available money, or liquidity injection, has happened at the same time as a major shift in how large financial institutions view Bitcoin.Second, investment firm Vanguard, which manages $9 trillion, has made it easier for its clients to access Bitcoin through certain investment products (third-party crypto ETFs).Third, technical analysis suggests a huge move is coming. The price charts show that the price swings (volatility) have been at historic lows, a pattern that has always happened right before a massive, rapid price increase (parabolic price movements).While these factors suggest the price is heading strongly upward and could soon go above $100,000, there is an immediate risk: the market remains fragile.There is not enough trading volume right now (market depth has not fully recovered), meaning there isn't much liquidity. In this kind of environment, the market is highly prone to large, sudden price swings, making it very sensitive to any bad news or unexpected selling that forces traders to quickly close their positions (liquidation events).However, because the fundamental drivers such as money flowing from central banks and real demand from major financial institutions are so strong, experts believe this price momentum is likely to last and is more than just a temporary fluctuation.Institutional Demand Mechanics: The Distribution Revolution The money flowing from large investment firms into Bitcoin has made a significant turnaround, suggesting that a period where money was rapidly leaving the market is over. Investment products known as US spot Bitcoin ETFs have started seeing money flow back in (net inflows), reversing four straight weeks where over $4.3 billion had been pulled out. Although the first week's rebound was modest at about $70 million, this shift confirms that institutional money is actively returning to the market.This money is not just coming from one source. While BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is recovering, major inflows went into funds managed by Fidelity ($77.5 million) and ARK 21Shares ($88 million), showing a broad return of interest across many institutional players. These ETFs now manage over $119 billion and hold 6.5% of all existing Bitcoin, making them a permanent and crucial source of demand.A huge structural change, dubbed the "Vanguard Effect," also boosted demand. Vanguard, one of the world's largest investment managers with up to $10 trillion in assets, started allowing its clients to buy crypto ETFs and mutual funds tied to Bitcoin and other digital assets (like ETH, XRP, and SOL) on its platform.This move created immediate and massive demand, causing Bitcoin's price to jump 6% right when the US market opened. On that first day, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF recorded about $1 billion in trading volume in the first half-hour alone. By making it easier for cautious, long-term investments, such as retirement and pension funds, to buy Bitcoin, Vanguard has permanently expanded the asset's reach, ensuring strong, sustained demand well into 2026.Technical Analysis - BTC/USD The confluence of positive structural and technical factors lends strong support to bullish forecasts heading into 2026.Looking at structure and the setup appears highly bullish, the path forward will likely be non-linear and volatile.The four-hour chart below has seen a shift in structure with price breaking above the previous swing high and resting on support at 91804.Resistance to the upside may be found at 95000 before the 97000 and 100000 handles come into focus.A potential pullback toward 90000 or the recent breakout at around the 86600 mark cannot be ruled out before the next leg higher.The primary immediate risks center on macroeconomic data surprises. Any unexpectedly high reading in the PCE Inflation Data or stronger-than-expected labor reports could quickly dampen December rate cut expectations, triggering a sharp reversal in the relief rally.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, December 3, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.