In my previous Bitcoin analysis, I showed that the assigned score of -4 (which means moderately bearish), and the bears are indeed still proving to be stronger than the bulls as Bitcoin continues struggling to reclaim ground below $64,000. Looking at the broader macro backdrop, we could see an increase in risk-off sentiment soon following news that Trump ordered new tariffs up to 100% on drone imports citing national security. However, the AI trade remains a persistent tailwind for equity markets, driven by ongoing optimism as OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate surpassed $40 billion according to recent reports (gotta admit, that's impressive, and the AI trade may still have some fuel).Now let's jump into the crypto king who seems a lttile tired at this stage of the tired summer. Still, as always, the important point is to know the key price levels on the trading map, and be ready if price activates an opinion to buy or sell. So check out the fillowing key price levels both in the Bitcoin futures and the spot chart.Bitcoin Price Analysis Today: BTC Breaks Below Value as Sellers Regain ControlBitcoin is trading around $63,350-$63,400, with the short-term structure turning more bearish. Bitcoin futures have broken below their developing value area, while the daily BTCUSD spot chart is slipping beneath its rising pitchfork channel and remains below the important $64,000 value pivot. Buyers now have some technical repair work to do.Key takeaways for Bitcoin traders todayShort-term bias: Bearish while BTC remains below the broken value area.Futures bearish threshold: Below $63,300 strengthens the downside continuation scenario.Futures bullish threshold: Buyers need to reclaim approximately $63,725 for a more credible recovery.Spot Bitcoin: The daily chart is losing the lower boundary of its rising pitchfork and remains below the important $64,000 area.Major downside test:$62,865-$62,900, where buyers previously reacted aggressively.What does the Bitcoin spot chart show today?My daily BTCUSD chart below adds an important bigger-picture warning to the shorter-term futures analysis.Bitcoin's rebound from the early-August low created a rising pitchfork channel. Think of the pitchfork as a way of mapping the path that an orderly trend might follow. Its parallel lines can act as dynamic support and resistance as price travels through time.For several sessions, Bitcoin stayed inside that rising structure. Now price is starting to cross beneath its lower boundary. Bulls still need a $64k reclaim (they may or may not get it).That matters because a bullish channel only remains useful while buyers continue defending it. Once price starts trading below the lower rail, the market is effectively saying that the previous rate of ascent may no longer be sustainable.What this means: Breaking a rising pitchfork does not automatically mean Bitcoin must collapse. It means the short-term bullish trajectory has weakened, and buyers need to prove themselves again.That is why I am watching $64,000 closely.The spot chart also contains a volume profile covering the broader trading range. The important nuance is that Bitcoin is now below the range's central high-volume reference, or point of control, near the $64,000 region.It has not yet broken beneath the entire broader value area, with deeper value support still considerably lower. But trading below the main value pivot tells us that the market is spending time on the weaker side of the range.Combine that with the pitchfork break, and the burden of proof has shifted back toward the buyers.What is a Bitcoin value area, and why does losing it matter?A value area shows where a large proportion of trading activity took place during a selected period.Instead of looking only at whether Bitcoin moved up or down, volume profile asks another useful question:At what prices did the market actually do the most business?Those areas can become important because buyers and sellers have previously demonstrated that they were comfortable transacting there.The point of control, or POC, is the individual price area where the greatest amount of volume traded.When Bitcoin is above an important value area and holding there, buyers may have greater control. When price moves beneath it and cannot recover, the market can start searching for lower prices where buyers are willing to become active again.That is essentially what is happening on the shorter-term Bitcoin futures chart now.Why are Bitcoin futures looking weaker?Bitcoin futures attempted another recovery following the August 13 selloff.Price initially recovered toward $64,100, then dropped sharply toward $62,865. Buyers responded from that low and pushed BTC back above $63,500, but the recovery failed to rebuild a stronger bullish structure.During the new session, futures reached approximately $63,715 and then spent several hours rotating around a narrow developing value area.The key references were approximately:The latest downside move pushed futures beneath developing value and below the session's main high-volume area.That is a meaningful change.Instead of buyers accepting progressively higher prices, the market is now moving away from value on the downside.What would make Bitcoin more bullish again?The investingLive tradeCompass bullish threshold is $63,725 on the futures map.That level sits just beyond the recent overnight high and the upper developing value area.A move above it would therefore mean more than Bitcoin simply bouncing $100 or $200. Buyers would be reclaiming the area where the latest balance developed and breaking through the recent sequence of weaker intraday highs.If Bitcoin accepts above $63,725, the upside areas to watch are:$63,875$63,955-$64,040around $64,200The most important zone is approximately $63,950-$64,050.That region matters on both charts.On futures, it contains previous value and resistance. On the daily spot chart, it also brings Bitcoin back toward the key $64,000 value pivot and toward the broken rising-channel structure.In other words, reclaiming $64,000 would begin to repair several pieces of technical damage at the same time.A brief touch is not enough, however.What this means: Acceptance means price gets above an important level, spends time there, and shows that buyers can defend it. A five-minute spike above resistance followed by an immediate reversal is very different from genuine acceptance.What would strengthen the bearish Bitcoin scenario?The bearish tradeCompass threshold remains approximately $63,300.A sustained move below this area would confirm that Bitcoin is not simply probing beneath developing value but is actually accepting lower prices.The bearish reaction zones are:$63,195$63,105-$63,120$62,865-$62,900around $62,650 if the recent low fails decisivelyThe $62,865-$62,900 area deserves special attention.Bitcoin already produced a strong reaction from this region. Traders should therefore not assume that revisiting the level guarantees another immediate breakdown.Previous lows can attract both profit-taking from shorts and fresh buying interest.For that reason, chasing bearish moves directly into established support can offer much less attractive risk-reward than waiting for either a clearer breakdown or a failed rebound into previously broken value.The Bitcoin tradeCompass mapHow can traders combine the spot and futures charts?This is where looking at more than one timeframe becomes useful.The futures chart is giving the faster tactical message: BTC has broken below developing value.The daily spot chart is giving the broader structural warning: Bitcoin is below the main $64,000 value pivot and is slipping beneath its rising pitchfork.When two different views point in the same direction, the message deserves more attention.That does not guarantee lower prices. It simply raises the standard buyers must meet before the market can reasonably be described as repaired.For me, the picture becomes considerably more constructive if Bitcoin futures reclaim $63,725 and spot BTC subsequently recovers and holds approximately $64,000.Until then, rallies deserve some skepticism.This analysis uses Bitcoin futures for the detailed tradeCompass thresholds and BTCUSD spot for the broader daily-chart structure. Futures, perpetual contracts, and spot Bitcoin can trade at slightly different prices, so traders should map the analysis to the instrument they actually trade.How traders can manage the Bitcoin mapThe tradeCompass is designed as a decision map, rather than a prediction that traders must follow.If a bearish scenario activates, traders can consider taking partial profits as major support areas are approached rather than assuming every target must be reached.Likewise, if Bitcoin reverses and activates the bullish map, resistance around $64,000 should be treated as an important test rather than assuming that one breakout candle means the entire bearish structure has disappeared.After a first target is reached, and certainly after a second target, traders may consider reducing risk, tightening the stop, or moving it closer to entry depending on their own execution approach.The objective is to avoid allowing a trade that has already moved favorably to return all the way to its original risk unnecessarily.How to know if this Bitcoin analysis is still validBecause Bitcoin trades 24 hours a day, this map can become stale quickly.A simple way to check whether the analysis still matters is to compare current price with its main thresholds:If BTC remains below $63,300, the bearish continuation scenario is active.If price is between roughly $63,300 and $63,725, Bitcoin is back inside the decision zone.If futures have accepted above $63,725, the immediate bearish structure is repairing.If spot Bitcoin has also reclaimed and held $64,000, the larger chart becomes meaningfully less bearish.If price has already travelled through several published targets, do not treat the original map as a fresh entry signal.The levels can still help explain where the market has travelled and where traders may reassess an existing position, but the article should not be treated as permanently current.For more context on bullish and bearish thresholds, confirmation, partial-profit targets, and decision zones, read the investingLive guide to using a tradeCompass market map.Chart caption: Bitcoin's daily BTCUSD chart shows price slipping beneath the rising pitchfork while remaining below the important $64,000 value pivot.Suggested alt text: Bitcoin BTCUSD daily chart showing price below the $64,000 volume-profile pivot and breaking beneath a rising pitchfork channel.Trade at your own risk. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Trump orders more tariffs, this time up to 100% on drone imports. Cites security.Follow-up: Latvia shoots down drone hours after issuing air threat alertEUR risk: Latvia issues air threat alert, Finland restricts Gulf of Finland trafficPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7878 (vs. estimate at 6.7413)Franklin Templeton stays bullish on stocks, leans into AI and USYen intervention could come again at any yen level, ex-official FurusawaUBS sees more room to run for stocks, favours broader global exposureOpenAI's annualized revenue run rate has surpassed $40 billion says a Bloomberg reportICYMI - Barkin says rate path unclear as sticky inflation meets resilient economyNZ manufacturing growth cools to 54.3 in July after June's surgeFed's Goolsbee says inflation data improving, hopes tariff effects fadeReddit to join S&P 500 index, Shares have jumped higher in after hours trade.ICYMI - Hawkish Fed's Hammack says acting now on inflation is really criticalOil settles down circa 2% on weak demand outlook and hefty US crude buildSEC abruptly pulls Friday crypto rules meeting, cites scheduling issueFitch affirms US at AA+, keeps outlook stable amid growth slowdownUAE's Adnoc says two of its vessels attacked in HormuzIts the 'what'd I miss?' post! Oil falls despite Hormuz chaos, S&P 500 record highinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: S&P 500 hits a fresh recordSummary:Oil ticked higher after the US threatened an indefinite naval blockade of Iran on Thursday, and Treasury Secretary Bessent flagged unprecedented new economic measures against Tehran for next weekADNOC confirmed two of its vessels were struck while transiting the Strait of HormuzGold slipped, dipping under 4,320 dollars at one stageChicago Fed's Goolsbee struck a more upbeat inflation tone than Hammack and Barkin, saying recent data has been a little better and hoping tariff and oil driven pressures prove temporaryUSD got a small pop on Latvia's air threat alert and Finland's Gulf of Finland restriction, before easing back to end the session lowerFurusawa reiterated the yen is too weak and that fresh Japan-US intervention is possible at any time; USD/JPY dribbled back under 159.40Reddit shares jumped over 8.5% after hours on confirmation of its S&P 500 inclusion, effective August 18Australia's Albanese and Trump held a call in which Trump agreed to consider reversing the 12.5% tariff on Australian exports Oil prices edged higher during the Asian session on Friday after the United States threatened an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, reviving supply concerns a day after crude fell on a weaker demand outlook and a large build in US inventories. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Newsmax's "Rob Schmitt Tonight" program the administration would soon unveil what he described as unprecedented economic measures against Tehran, saying the approach would combine historic economic isolation with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, ADNOC confirmed two of its vessels were struck while transiting the strait, part of a mounting toll on shipping through the waterway since the war began.Gold moved in the opposite direction, slipping to under 4,320 dollars an ounce at one stage during the session.On the Fed, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee offered a more optimistic read than his colleagues Beth Hammack and Tom Barkin earlier in the day, saying in a Fox News interview that recent inflation data has been a little better and that he is hopeful the trend continues. Goolsbee attributed much of the current inflation to tariffs and higher oil prices tied to the Iran war, both of which he had hoped would prove one-off increases, and said working through those pressures could put the economy back on what he called a golden path toward the Fed's 2% target.The US dollar saw a brief pop after Latvia issued an air threat alert and Finland imposed a temporary restriction on aviation and maritime traffic in the eastern Gulf of Finland within minutes of each other. Speculation centred on whether the incidents involved drones tied to Russia's war in Ukraine that had drifted off course, or represented a further example of Russian harassment of NATO's eastern neighbours. The dollar ultimately gave back that gain and finished the session lower.In FX, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, Japan's former top currency diplomat, told Reuters the yen remains clearly too weak at current levels and is hurting the economy through higher import costs, adding that Japan and the US could conduct joint intervention again at any time rather than at a fixed level. USD/JPY dribbled back under 159.40 during the session.Elsewhere, Reddit shares jumped more than 8.5% in after-hours trade after S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed the platform will join the S&P 500 before markets open on August 18.In Australia, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke with President Trump, with Trump agreeing to consider reversing the 12.5% tariff currently applied to Australian exports. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The tiered structure here matters more than the headline rate: a 100% tariff on militarily sensitive drones and components targets China directly given its dominance in that segment, while the lower 15% and 10% rates carved out for the EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the UK function as a soft incentive for allied supply chains rather than a blanket trade barrier. Combined with the onshoring authorisation for Commerce and the parallel shipbuilding memorandum, this reads as part of a broader push to rebuild US defense-adjacent manufacturing capacity, a theme likely to keep showing up alongside the administration's tariff and industrial policy agenda through the rest of the year. Watch defense contractors and drone makers with US manufacturing exposure, along with any retaliatory signals from China given its central role in global drone component supply.--- Washington is treating drones the way it once treated steel, a national security problem to be solved with tariffs and onshoring.Summary:Trump signed a proclamation Thursday imposing tiered tariffs on imported drones and components, citing a national security threat and the need to rapidly expand US drone productionLarger drones with militarily sensitive capabilities, such as thermal imaging, and certain critical components face a 100% ad valorem tariff; smaller, less sensitive drones and components face a 25% levyA 15% tariff applies to drones from the EU, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan, and a 10% tariff applies to UK drones, provided substantially all hardware, software and technology originate from those countries or the USThe proclamation authorises the Commerce Secretary to establish an onshoring program for companies investing in new US drone manufacturing capacityThe White House said the move follows earlier reporting in May that the administration was pursuing funding deals with drone companies to boost domestic production and cut costsTariffs on sensitive drones and components take effect 21 days after signing, while duties on less sensitive components phase in after 180 days President Trump has announced a tiered set of tariffs on imported drones and drone components, framing the move as a response to a national security threat and a bid to rapidly expand US drone manufacturing capacity. In a statement, the White House said the drone tariff program is designed to protect the security of the United States and its defense and defense-adjacent industrial base while creating jobs, adding that domestic drone production needs to scale up quickly to safeguard national and economic security.Under the proclamation, signed Thursday, duties are structured according to both the capability of the drone and its country of origin. Larger drones equipped with militarily sensitive features, such as thermal imaging, along with certain critical components, face a 100% ad valorem tariff. Smaller drones and components without the same national security implications face a lower 25% levy.Allied nations received preferential treatment within that framework. Drones originating from the European Union, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan face a 15% tariff, while UK-made drones face a 10% duty, conditional on substantially all hardware, software and technology originating within those countries and the United States. That structure effectively channels the heaviest tariff burden toward non-allied suppliers, chiefly China, which dominates global drone and component manufacturing, while offering allied and partner nations a materially lower rate.The proclamation also authorises the Secretary of Commerce to establish an onshoring program supporting companies that invest in new US drone and component manufacturing, consistent with the administration's broader push to strengthen national defense industries. The move follows earlier reporting by the Wall Street Journal in May, which said the administration was pursuing funding deals with a group of drone companies as part of an effort to boost domestic production and bring down the cost of what has become an increasingly vital category of weapon.The drone tariffs targeting militarily sensitive products take effect 21 days after the proclamation's signing, while duties on less sensitive components have a longer runway, phasing in after 180 days. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This confirms the escalation we flagged as a live possibility in our earlier piece, this wasn't a stray drone drifting off course, it required a NATO air defence mission to physically shoot it down over Latvian territory, a more serious outcome than the alert-and-clear pattern that has repeated through 2026. Combined with 15 drones downed near Russia's own Leningrad border region and reports that NATO's northern members are actively hardening dams, power plants and gas infrastructure against a possible false flag attack, the story has moved from routine border friction toward something closer to sustained low-level harassment. Not yet a market moving event on its own, but worth tracking closely alongside European defence names and any broader NATO response.--- What started as a precautionary alert became an actual intercept, and Russia's northern neighbours are now hardening infrastructure against the next one.Summary:NATO fighter jets on an air defence mission shot down a drone that entered Latvian airspace early Friday, according to ReutersLatvia lifted its air threat alert for regions near Russia following the intercept, with no immediate details provided on the drone's originFinland separately restricted areas of the eastern Gulf of Finland for aviation and maritime traffic as a precaution against possible drones, its defence forces saidOvernight, Russia shot down 15 drones over its own Leningrad region near the Finnish and Estonian border, home to St Petersburg, regional governor Alexander Drozdenko said on TelegramReuters reports that Russia's northern NATO neighbours are tightening security around dams, power plants and gas infrastructure amid concern Moscow could stage a false flag attack using Ukrainian drones Fighter jets on a NATO air defence mission shot down a drone that entered Latvian airspace early Friday, Latvia's armed forces said on X, a more serious escalation than the alert issued in the same border regions the previous evening, which had been lifted without incident at the time. Latvia's armed forces said the air threat alert for regions close to Russia was lifted following the intercept, though they did not immediately provide details on the drone's origin.Finland, which also shares a border with Russia, separately imposed temporary restrictions on aviation and maritime traffic in the eastern Gulf of Finland as a precautionary measure against possible drones, its defence forces said on X. The restriction echoes similar measures Finland has imposed repeatedly through 2026 in the same corridor near Kotka, though this is the first time in recent memory that a parallel Latvian alert has escalated into an actual shootdown on the same night.Reuters noted that countries neighbouring Russia and Ukraine issue air threat alerts and down drones from time to time as Moscow and Kyiv continue to exchange attacks following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Overnight, Russia itself shot down 15 drones over its Leningrad region, close to the Finnish and Estonian border and home to St Petersburg, Russia's second biggest city and a major export hub, regional governor Alexander Drozdenko said on Telegram early Friday.Reuters also reported that Russia's northern NATO neighbours are tightening security around dams, power plants and natural gas infrastructure, a sign of mounting concern that Moscow could stage a so-called false flag attack on that infrastructure using Ukrainian drones. Taken together, Friday's developments mark a step up from the alert-and-clear pattern that has characterised most Baltic and Nordic drone incidents so far this year, with an actual intercept over Latvian territory, a fresh Finnish restriction, and a large-scale Russian intercept operation near its own northern border all landing within the same 24 hour window. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The scale of this shift is the story: China's exports have gone from under 600,000 vehicles in 2019 to a forecast of up to 10 million this year, and shipping capacity simply hasn't kept pace despite a 40 percent expansion in the global car-carrier fleet. Charter rates have nearly doubled since late last year, a dynamic worth watching for margin pressure on Chinese automakers already competing fiercely at home, and for read-through to broader dry bulk and container shipping names benefiting from the overflow demand. The domestic angle matters too, with Chinese car sales down over 20 percent in the first half of the year, export capacity is functioning as a pressure valve for oversupply, reinforcing China's ongoing demand destruction story that's already showing up in oil and commodity markets this week.--- China has gone from a minor car exporter to the world's largest in five years, and the shipping industry still hasn't caught up.Summary:China could export up to 10 million vehicles this year, up from just under 600,000 in 2019, according to research group Mobility Global, per the Wall Street Journal (gated)Car-carrier charter rates are up 65% this year, with average annual rates hitting $70,000 a day in June, up from $42,500 at the end of last year, according to shipbroker ClarksonsThe global car-carrier fleet has grown roughly 40% but still cannot meet demand, according to Wallenius Wilhelmsen chief executive Lasse KristoffersenSome automakers are shipping cars in standard containers rather than specialised car carriers, with up to four million vehicles a year now moved this way, according to KristoffersenChina's SAIC Motor and BYD posted strong EU registration growth in the first half of 2026 while Western legacy brands like Stellantis, Volkswagen and Renault largely stagnated, according to European Automobile Manufacturers' Association dataChinese car sales at home fell more than 20% in the first half of 2026, per International Energy Agency data cited by the WSJ, with exports acting as a pressure release valve for domestic oversupply China's auto factories are producing so many vehicles for export that the global shipping industry cannot keep up, according to the Wall Street Journal, with specialised car-carrier vessels booked years in advance and charter rates up 65% this year.The scale of the shift is stark. China exported just under 600,000 cars and vans in 2019; Mobility Global now forecasts the country could ship up to 10 million vehicles this year. That surge is being driven by fierce competition among more than 100 domestic auto brands, industry overproduction and a sluggish home market, pushing carmakers to flood foreign markets in Europe, Australia and Latin America.Shipping capacity has not kept pace. Wallenius Wilhelmsen chief executive Lasse Kristoffersen said the global car-carrier fleet has expanded by around 40% but still cannot satisfy Chinese export demand, and average annual charter rates for large car carriers hit $70,000 a day in June, up from $42,500 at the end of last year, according to shipbroker Clarksons. Höegh Autoliners chief executive Andreas Enger said the boom has pushed ocean freight rates for cars to double their pre-pandemic levels, describing China's shift from a minor exporter to the world's largest as happening in just five years.With specialised vessels scarce, some automakers are now shipping vehicles in standard containers typically used for furniture or electronics. Kristoffersen said up to four million vehicles a year are now exported from China via containers or other alternatives to dedicated car carriers, a practice that has become common enough that major container shipping lines including A.P. Moller-Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Co. are now selling services directly to automakers.The export drive is reshaping global market share. SAIC Motor's EU registrations rose 19% and BYD's more than doubled in the first half of 2026, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, while legacy rivals largely stagnated, Stellantis gained just 6%, Volkswagen edged up 2.6%, and Renault fell 4.2%. Chinese vehicles remain largely absent from the US market due to tariffs and software restrictions tied to national security concerns, but are increasingly displacing Western brands in markets including the UK, Brazil and Germany.Behind the export surge lies a domestic slowdown. Chinese car sales fell more than 20% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to International Energy Agency data. Sino Auto Insights managing director Tu Le described the export push as a pressure release valve for a market oversaturated with competing brands. Chinese manufacturers have also begun moving into shipping itself to secure capacity, with BYD launching its first dedicated car carrier in 2024 and now operating a fleet of eight vessels.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Individually, these alerts rarely move markets, Latvia and Finland have both issued similar drone related warnings repeatedly through 2026 as drones stray off course near the Russian border. The relevance here is cumulative rather than singular: another pair of alerts landing the same evening keeps NATO's eastern flank in the geopolitical risk conversation even as headlines remain dominated by the Middle East, and any escalation beyond a precautionary posture, an actual intrusion, interception, or casualty, would be the trigger that moves European risk sentiment and defence names rather than the alerts themselves.Still the knee jerk is a bid for the USD. --- Two more airspace alerts on NATO's eastern flank, a now familiar pattern rather than a new escalation, for now.Summary:Latvia's National Armed Forces issued an air threat alert on X at 9.10pm local time on ThursdayFinland's Defence Forces announced a temporary restriction zone for aviation and maritime traffic in the eastern Gulf of Finland just minutes later, at 9.14pmBoth countries have issued similar precautionary alerts repeatedly through 2026, typically tied to Ukrainian drones straying off course during strikes on Russian targets near the borderPrevious incidents this year have seen Latvia's eastern municipalities placed under cell broadcast alert and NATO air policing fighters scrambled, with at least one drone destroyed over Estonian territoryFinland has restricted the same Gulf of Finland corridor near Kotka on multiple occasions this year, most recently in July, without confirmed drone incursions into its airspace Latvia's National Armed Forces issued an air threat alert on Thursday evening, followed within minutes by Finland's Defence Forces announcing a temporary restriction on aviation and maritime traffic in the eastern Gulf of Finland, the latest pair of precautionary measures on NATO's eastern flank amid the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.Neither country's statement, as relayed, detailed the specific trigger for Thursday's alerts. But both fit a pattern that has repeated through 2026: Latvia has issued similar air threat warnings covering its eastern municipalities, including Alūksne, Balvi, Ludza, Rēzekne and Krāslava, on multiple occasions this year, typically after sensors detected an unidentified object near the border with Russia. In several of those cases, the warnings were later confirmed to involve Ukrainian drones that had strayed off course during strikes on targets in Russia's Leningrad region, with NATO air policing fighters scrambled in response and at least one drone shot down over neighbouring Estonian territory. Some officials in the region have suggested the pattern of incursions may reflect deliberate harassment by Russia rather than solely stray Ukrainian drones, though that characterisation remains contested and unconfirmed in Thursday's specific case.Finland's restriction, covering the waters and airspace near the city of Kotka in the eastern Gulf of Finland, follows a similarly established pattern. Finnish authorities have imposed comparable temporary restrictions in that same corridor on several occasions since Ukrainian and Russian drone activity near the border intensified, most recently in mid-July, when a restriction was lifted after roughly three and a half hours with no drones confirmed to have crossed into Finnish airspace. Finnish officials have described the restrictions as precautionary, intended to protect civilians and preserve the ability to intercept drones if needed, rather than as a response to a confirmed incursion.Both Latvia and Finland have steadily reinforced air defence capabilities along their eastern borders through 2026, with Latvia continuing to build out an intermediate range air defence layer under its joint Livonian Shield programme with Estonia. While Thursday's alerts do not, on the available information, indicate an escalation beyond the pattern already established this year, the frequency of these incidents continues to underscore the persistent spillover risk from the war in Ukraine along NATO's Baltic and Nordic borders.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. PBOC injected CNY 349bn via overnight reverse repos, but ran zero 7-day reverse repo volume Friday Net effect: CNY 1.001tln drained today via maturities, no new reverse repos conducted Weekly net drain totals CNY 1.0985tln as repo and outright maturities outpaced injections This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Franklin Templeton's note lands as a risk-on counterweight to the more cautious Fed and inflation narratives dominating this week, arguing that strong corporate earnings outweigh geopolitical tension and rate uncertainty. Its preference for US, Japan and emerging market equities over Europe and Australia reflects a straightforward AI exposure trade, betting that markets tied to the technology buildout will keep outperforming those more sensitive to energy and commodity swings, a call that puts it somewhat at odds with Australia's own rate and growth backdrop.---Earlier on the Fed:ICYMI - Barkin says rate path unclear as sticky inflation meets resilient economyFed's Goolsbee says inflation data improving, hopes tariff effects fadeICYMI - Hawkish Fed's Hammack says acting now on inflation is really critical--- Franklin Templeton is choosing earnings over headlines, and betting the AI trade still has room to run.Summary:Franklin Templeton remains optimistic on equities into August, looking past renewed geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns in favour of strong corporate earningsThe firm said recent volatility has reset technology valuations and eased stretched sentiment and positioning, improving the setup for further gainsIt retains an AI tilt, overweighting US, Japan and emerging market equities, while staying more cautious on markets with greater energy and commodity sensitivityFranklin Templeton sees international duration as relatively attractive, arguing rate hike expectations outside the US look overly optimistic given weaker global growthThe firm expects the Fed will ultimately need to tighten policy further, citing new Chair Kevin Warsh's approach as a source of added uncertaintyAustralia is named the firm's least preferred equity market, citing weak domestic growth, unsupportive fiscal policy and tight monetary policy Franklin Templeton said it remains optimistic on equities heading into August, arguing that strong corporate earnings outweigh renewed geopolitical tensions and lingering inflation concerns. The firm said recent market volatility has done useful work resetting technology valuations and cooling sentiment and positioning indicators that had been drifting toward exuberance, leaving a healthier setup for further gains.The firm's core equity view leans heavily on artificial intelligence exposure, with overweight positions in the US, Japan and emerging markets, and a more cautious stance toward markets with greater sensitivity to energy and commodity prices. It named Australia its least preferred region, pointing to a mix of weak domestic growth, unsupportive fiscal policy and tight monetary policy as reasons for the underweight.On rates, Franklin Templeton continues to favour international duration over US Treasuries, arguing that weaker growth outlooks outside the United States make current market pricing for rate hikes in those regions look overly aggressive. On the Fed itself, the firm struck a more hawkish note than some of its peers, saying new Chair Kevin Warsh's approach has introduced additional uncertainty and that it ultimately expects the Fed will need to tighten policy further, a view that puts it closer to Deutsche Bank's more hawkish gold-adjacent framing than to the more dovish read offered by Fed speakers like Barkin and Goolsbee this week.---This caught my eye on Japan:---Franklin Templeton is a global asset management firm headquartered in San Mateo, California, founded in 1947 and built up over subsequent decades through the acquisitions of Templeton Global Investors and Mutual Series, among others, giving it deep roots in both growth investing and value investing traditions. It manages assets across equities, fixed income, multi-asset and alternative strategies through a multi-boutique structure, including well known affiliates such as Franklin Equity Group, Templeton Global Macro, ClearBridge Investments, Western Asset Management and Martin Currie. The firm is publicly traded and one of the larger diversified asset managers globally by assets under management, serving institutional and retail investors worldwide. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This lands directly on top of the yen story that had already been building through the week, with USD/JPY drifting back to around 159.50 after intervention drove it as low as roughly 155 last month. Furusawa's comments effectively confirm what the market had started pricing in on its own, that verbal and physical intervention only buys time and that the real lever is the BOJ's rate path. His framing that Tokyo could act again at any level, not just a specific trigger point like 160 or 162, removes the psychological comfort some traders had been taking from the idea of a defended line, and his read that September hike odds have jumped to 76% from 24% in two weeks gives the pair a much firmer near term catalyst. Combined with his projection of a move toward 1.5% to 1.75% over the next several quarters, this reframes the yen story from a single intervention event into a multi-meeting BOJ tightening cycle, which is the more durable trade for desks to be positioning around.--- Furusawa is telling markets not to get comfortable, intervention can come at any yen level and the BOJ isn't done hiking either.Summary:Mitsuhiro Furusawa, formerly Japan's top currency diplomat at the Ministry of Finance and now president of Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp's Institute for Global Financial Affairs, told Reuters the yen is clearly too weak at current levels and hurting the economy through higher import costsHe said Japan and the US could conduct joint intervention again at any time, not tied to a specific level like 160 or 162 per dollar, if the yen returns toward levels seen before last month's coordinated actionThat intervention had driven the yen to around 155.20 from a 40-year low of 163.99, before it slid back to around 159.50Furusawa said intervention only buys time and that faster BOJ rate hikes are the more fundamental fix, expecting a September hike followed by another in December or JanuaryHe estimated the BOJ ultimately wants to raise rates to around 1.5% to 1.75%, based on a neutral rate estimate of 1.1% to 2.5%, with a further hike possible in the fiscal year beginning April 2027 if growth holds upTokyo Tanshi data now shows a 76% market implied chance of a September hike, up from 24% on July 30, with Furusawa also urging Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government not to obstruct BOJ tightening Japan may conduct joint yen intervention with the United States "at any time" and should signal the chance of faster than expected interest rate hikes to arrest the currency's slide, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, Japan's former top currency diplomat, told Reuters in an interview published Thursday.Furusawa, who represented Japan on currency matters at the Ministry of Finance before later serving as deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund and now heading Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp's Institute for Global Financial Affairs, said the yen remains clearly too weak at current levels and is hurting the economy by pushing up import costs. He said Tokyo and Washington could step in again if the currency returns to levels seen before their coordinated intervention last month, though he stressed there is no fixed trigger point. "It is probably not a matter of intervening specifically at, say, 160 or 162 yen per dollar. But intervention could take place again at any time, including coordinated action with the United States," he said.That coordinated intervention had driven the yen up to around 155.20 per dollar from a 40-year low of 163.99, but the currency has since slid back to around 159.50, retracing much of that move and reviving the same pressure that prompted Tokyo and Washington to act in the first place.Furusawa said intervention alone only buys time, with more fundamental steps, chiefly faster BOJ rate hikes, needed to reverse the yen's downtrend on a durable basis. He said most market participants already expect the BOJ to raise rates in September and that it should, but argued the more important task for the central bank is communicating the likelihood of a faster pace of hikes going forward, rather than the September move itself. Since exiting a decade long stimulus programme in 2024, the BOJ has raised rates at roughly twice a year, including a June move that took the policy rate to a 31-year high of 1%.Looking further out, Furusawa estimated the BOJ would ultimately like to raise rates to somewhere between 1.5% and 1.75%, based on the central bank's own estimate that Japan's neutral rate, the level that neither cools nor overheats the economy, sits between 1.1% and 2.5%. He said the next move after September would likely come in December or January, with a further hike possible in the fiscal year beginning April 2027 provided the economy does not lose momentum.Market pricing has already shifted sharply toward that view. A nudge from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent alongside a run of hawkish BOJ communications has effectively locked in a September hike, with Tokyo Tanshi data showing markets now assign a 76% probability to a move that month, up from just 24% on July 30.Furusawa also said it was important that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's administration avoid standing in the way of BOJ tightening and follow through on its own fiscal sustainability pledges. "The ideal outcome would be to use monetary and fiscal policy to move away from a situation where the yen is excessively sold, while growth strategies begin to bear fruit and strengthen the Japanese economy," he said, adding that such a combination would allow the yen to appreciate gradually over time rather than through abrupt intervention. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UBS is telling clients that despite the risk of bouts of volatility as Fed policy expectations shift with each data print, the broader global equity rally remains intact and the bank still sees upside for the S&P 500. The more notable call is the push toward diversification, with UBS arguing that concentration risk in US markets makes European and Asian equities a more effective way to participate in what it frames as a broadening rally rather than a narrow one. That view aligns with a strong Q2 European earnings season and robust Asian earnings growth forecasts, giving the diversification case a fundamental underpinning rather than a purely valuation driven one.--- UBS isn't backing away from stocks, it's just telling clients to stop putting all their chips on the US.Summary:UBS expects the global stock rally to continue, with further gains likely for the S&P 500, though shifting Fed policy expectations could drive periods of volatilityThe bank favours diversified regional exposure given elevated concentration risk in US equities, seeing this as a way to participate in a broadening rallyOn Europe, UBS points to Stoxx Europe 600 companies tracking their strongest Q2 profit growth since 2022, a more durable investment cycle tied to defence, infrastructure, AI, automation, electrification and energy security spending, and Germany's fiscal impulse; the bank likes banks, health care, industrials, consumer discretionary, Germany and its European Leaders themeOn Japan, UBS sees a likely cyclical bottom in place, citing over 20% year on year operating profit growth in Q2 and favouring AI related names including semiconductor equipment, alongside cyclical recovery plays like banks and machinery, and power demand beneficiariesOn Asia ex-Japan, UBS holds an Attractive view backed by a 72% earnings growth forecast for the year, favouring China's internet sector and semiconductor capital equipment, plus banks, insurers, select utilities and consumer staples for defensive income, alongside India's growth story beyond AI and Singapore's value-up reformsUBS concludes that broad global earnings strength and structural growth trends support a diversified equity portfolio as the best way to navigate ongoing uncertainty UBS told clients this week that the global equity rally still has room to run, even as shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy are likely to generate periodic bouts of volatility as each new data print reshapes the rate outlook. The bank said it continues to see further gains ahead for the S&P 500, but its broader message centred on where investors should look beyond the US market that has led the rally so far.UBS argued that elevated concentration risk within US equities makes the case for diversified regional exposure more compelling than usual, framing European and Asian markets not as defensive hedges but as genuine opportunities within what it described as a broadening global rally.On Europe, the bank pointed to earnings momentum as the clearest signal, with Stoxx Europe 600 companies on track for their strongest second quarter profit growth since 2022. UBS said European equities still have room to climb further despite their recent run to record highs, underpinned by a more durable investment cycle as spending on defence, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, automation, electrification and energy security flows through to select industrial, technology, financial and consumer names. The bank acknowledged Europe remains more exposed than the US to disruption in energy markets, but said improving business activity, strengthening order trends and Germany's fiscal impulse should help widen the recovery. UBS named banks, health care, industrials, consumer discretionary, German equities and its European Leaders theme as preferred exposures.On Japan, UBS said the market has likely found a cyclical bottom after regaining some lost ground over the past two weeks, supported by resilient corporate earnings. The bank cited operating profit growth running above 20% year on year in the second quarter, with positive earnings surprises reinforcing the outlook. It said the recent valuation reset has opened attractive entry points into high quality companies with durable earnings growth, and it favours balanced exposure to AI related names including semiconductor equipment, alongside cyclical recovery beneficiaries such as banks and machinery, plus companies positioned to benefit from rising power demand tied to electrification, digitalisation and AI infrastructure buildout.UBS holds an Attractive rating on Asia ex-Japan, built around a forecast for 72% earnings growth this year, driven by the region's role in the AI hardware supply chain alongside a recovery in more cyclical segments. Within China, the bank said an improving risk-reward backdrop should support the internet sector, while continued AI investment commitments should benefit semiconductor capital equipment names. UBS also flagged growth opportunities in power and health care, and named banks, insurers, select utilities and consumer staples as preferred plays for defensive cash flow and income. Beyond AI, the bank pointed to India as a compelling standalone growth story, while continuing "value-up" reforms should support select markets such as Singapore.Taken together, UBS said broad based global earnings strength, an improving cyclical backdrop and structural growth trends across regions make the case for a diversified equity portfolio, arguing that such positioning gives investors the best route to participate in a broadening rally while navigating the uncertainty and potential volatility still ahead.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BOTTOM LINE: Outlook for investorsThe rapid growth demonstrates strong commercial demand for generative AI across both consumer and corporate sectors. However, as OpenAI and Anthropic head toward their respective public debuts, investors will closely evaluate whether these growth rates can be maintained against the massive capital expenditures required to build and run next-generation models.---Summary:OpenAI’s annualized revenue run rate has crossed $40 billion, effectively doubling its financial pace from late 2025. The rapid acceleration comes as the AI company prepares for an anticipated initial public offering (IPO), bolstered by strong demand across consumer subscriptions, new advertising streams, and enterprise software.Bloomberg (gated) with the info. ---OpenAI doubles revenue run rate to $40 billion amid escalating battle with AnthropicOpenAI has hit another financial milestone, with its annualized revenue run rate crossing $40 billion—roughly doubling its pace from late 2025. The sharp acceleration underscores surging commercial demand for generative AI, even as the market pioneer prepares for an anticipated initial public offering (IPO) and defends its domain against mounting competition.The momentum reflects immediate top-line expansion across multiple revenue streams. In an internal announcement to staff, co-founder and President Greg Brockman revealed that OpenAI’s monthly revenue run rate grew by over 20% in July alone. This rapid scaling follows a strong close to last year, when Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar noted an annualized run rate of $20 billion, confirming that the company has doubled its run rate in under twelve months.Diversified monetization and enterprise pushOpenAI’s top-line surge is being propelled by broad-based adoption across both consumer and corporate channels. Key growth drivers include:Subscription models: Persistent growth across core paid consumer tiers.Ad initiatives: Early monetization through nascent advertising models.Specialized software: High enterprise demand for specialized tools, notably the Codex coding agent and ChatGPT Work platforms tailored for corporate environments.The Anthropic showdown and accounting nuancesThe milestone highlights a fiercely competitive dynamic with rival Anthropic, as both AI powerhouses race for lucrative enterprise contracts ahead of prospective Wall Street debuts.Anthropic reported a $47 billion run rate in May and has already submitted confidential paperwork for a public listing that could occur as early as this autumn. However, direct financial comparisons between the two private startups remain complex. Headline figures carry notable accounting variances, meaning differences in recognized revenue schedules and reporting methodologies obscure exact side-by-side positioning.Strategic pivots to protect market shareAgainst the backdrop of intensifying competition—both from domestic tech peers and lower-cost international alternatives—OpenAI has aggressively calibrated its go-to-market execution:Aggressive pricing updates: The company recently introduced targeted price cuts on select AI models to retain price-sensitive developers and capture mid-market adoption.Sales leadership overhaul: OpenAI appointed a veteran cybersecurity executive as its second Chief Revenue Officer in under a year, specifically tasked with scaling enterprise sales operations and securing large-scale corporate deployments.The investor horizonWhile the revenue surge illustrates how rapidly AI capabilities are converting into tangible commercial value, upcoming public listings will bring deeper scrutiny. As OpenAI and Anthropic head toward their Wall Street debuts, institutional investors will be closely watching whether these historic growth rates can be sustained alongside the massive capital expenditures required to train, host, and deploy next-generation models.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Barkin's refusal to prejudge September, delivered before Goolsbee's more dovish framing later the same day, leaves the committee's public messaging looking genuinely split three ways rather than a simple hawks versus doves story. His emphasis on 3.7% core PCE and the risk of embedding expectations keeps a September or October hike firmly on the table even as his tone stays far more measured than Hammack's insistence on acting immediately. With Warsh reportedly pulling back on forward guidance since taking the chair, every regional president's comments are being weighted more heavily by markets than usual, and futures pricing has already trimmed September hike odds toward 50% following Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's soft PPI. Friday's retail sales print and the July FOMC minutes on August 19 now stand as the next real tests of which of these three narratives, Hammack's urgency, Barkin's agnosticism or Goolsbee's cautious optimism, gains the upper hand.--- Barkin isn't ready to call September either way, and that uncertainty is doing more to move markets than a clear signal would.Summary:Barkin told a Greenville, South Carolina audience on Thursday, before Goolsbee's Fox News comments that evening, that it remains an open question whether the Fed needs to raise rates again to hit its 2% targetHe said much of today's elevated inflation stems from shocks he expects to fade, including tariffs, oil prices and AI related demand, but flagged risk that inflation stays elevated long enough to shift firm and consumer price expectationsA separate account of the same speech, titled The Mysterious US Economy, put headline PCE inflation at 3.7% and framed the economy around four puzzles: resilience, an investment boom, low unemployment and inflation that will not finish fallingReal private nonresidential fixed investment grew at an annualised 9.5% in the first half of 2026, more than double the pre-pandemic decade average, driven largely by AI infrastructure spendingJuly payrolls fell by 23,000 even as unemployment held at 4.1%, a 58th straight month at or below 4.5%, which Barkin attributed to labour supply shrinking alongside labour demandBarkin declined to signal a September preference, saying he never prejudges the path forward, a notable departure given Chair Kevin Warsh has scaled back forward guidance since taking over in May, leaving markets reading every regional president for cues the committee itself is no longer providing Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin used a Thursday appearance in Greenville, South Carolina to lay out an economy he described as resilient but stubbornly resistant to a clean read, telling the audience it remains an open question whether the Fed will need to raise rates again to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Barkin's comments came earlier in the day, before Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee struck a notably more upbeat tone on inflation in a Fox News interview that evening, giving markets two distinct Fed voices to parse within a matter of hours.Barkin framed the debate as one of mechanism rather than outcome. He said the Fed's commitment to reaching 2% inflation was not in question, only how it gets there, and whether rates need to rise further or whether inflation is already headed back down on its own. He attributed much of today's elevated inflation to shocks he expects to fade over time, pointing to tariffs, higher oil prices and surging demand tied to the artificial intelligence buildout, all pressures he described as likely temporary. If those fade, he said, current interest rates may already be restrictive enough to do the job. At the same time, he flagged a more pessimistic scenario in which persistently above target inflation, running since 2021, risks becoming embedded in the price expectations of firms and consumers, a shift that could ultimately force the Fed's hand.A more detailed account of the same appearance, delivered under the title The Mysterious US Economy, put a sharper number on the inflation picture, with Barkin citing headline PCE inflation at 3.7%, well above target. He structured his remarks around four puzzles he sees in the current economy: its overall resilience, a striking investment boom, unusually low unemployment, and inflation that refuses to complete its descent. On investment, Barkin pointed to real private nonresidential fixed investment growing at an annualised 9.5% in the first half of 2026, more than double the pre-pandemic decade average, with AI infrastructure spending as the primary driver but momentum broadening into bank lending, mergers and acquisitions, factory construction and defence spending. Business leaders, he said, increasingly treat high uncertainty as the new normal and feel they cannot afford to wait to invest.On the labour market, Barkin described a genuine paradox: July payrolls fell by 23,000 even as the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, marking a 58th consecutive month at or below 4.5%, the longest such streak on record. His explanation was that slowing labour demand has been matched by an equally shrinking labour supply, as reduced immigration and an ageing population thin the pool of available workers even as hiring cools. He also pointed to a post pandemic willingness among consumers to keep spending despite falling real incomes, describing households trading down to cheaper goods and dipping into savings while remaining broadly employed, with wealthier households further cushioned by rising home and equity values.On the core inflation question, Barkin declined to pick a side, laying out both the optimistic case that today's readings reflect fading shocks and the more pessimistic case that inflation has stayed elevated long enough to risk shifting expectations and require further tightening. New York Fed president John Williams was cited making a related point earlier in the week, arguing it would be appropriate to act if the economy is not clearly on a path back to 2%. Barkin closed without endorsing either view, saying he never prejudges the path forward and will keep gathering signals from business contacts and incoming data. That non-answer is being read as more significant than a typical dodge given that Chair Kevin Warsh has reportedly pulled back sharply on forward guidance since taking over in May, leaving markets unusually reliant on individual regional presidents, Barkin included, for directional clues the committee itself is no longer providing centrally.Barkin does not hold an FOMC vote this year, but like his fellow non-voting presidents he still shapes the discussion behind the July decision, in which the committee held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari and Dallas's Lorie Logan dissenting in favour of a hike, the largest hawkish dissent bloc on the committee since 2016. Barkin's studied neutrality stands in clear contrast to Hammack, who has argued this week that policy is not currently restrictive and that the Fed needs to act now rather than wait, and to Goolsbee, who framed the latest inflation data as a little better and expressed hope that fading tariff and oil effects could put the economy back on what he called a golden path toward target.Markets, for their part, have been trimming the odds of a September hike, with futures pricing dipping toward 50% following Wednesday's in line CPI print and Thursday's softer than expected PPI reading, itself accompanied by a weaker jobless claims number. Attention now turns to Friday's retail sales data, expected to show a modest 0.1% headline gain, and to the July FOMC meeting minutes due August 19, which should reveal how deeply the hawkish dissent was debated internally and are likely to be the most consequential input for rate pricing ahead of the September 15-16 decision. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The pullback from June's standout reading looks more like a natural correction than a genuine turn in the cycle, with every sub-index still comfortably in expansion territory and the headline figure well above the survey's long run average. The more telling signal is the shift in tone among respondents, with a majority of comments now negative, pointing to Middle East driven cost pressures, soft customer spending and election related uncertainty as headwinds. That combination points to a sector still growing but increasingly cautious about the months ahead, a pattern likely to show up first in softer new orders and employment readings before it shows up in headline output.--- New Zealand manufacturers are still growing, but they are growing more nervously than they were a month ago.Summary:The BNZ BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index eased to a seasonally adjusted 54.3 in July, down from 60.1 in June but above May's 51.5 and the survey's long term average of 52.5BusinessNZ's Catherine Beard said the easing was not surprising after an exceptional June, though she flagged more than half of respondent comments as negativeRespondents cited the Middle East conflict, elevated fuel and raw material costs, subdued customer spending and uncertainty ahead of the election as key concerns, alongside some pointing to steady order books and stronger exportsEvery sub-index remained in expansion despite easing from June, led by Production at 57.3 and Deliveries at 55.8New Orders fell back to 53.3 and Finished Stocks eased to 53.2, with Employment the weakest sub-index at 52.8BNZ senior economist Doug Steel described the softer reading as within normal month to month volatility rather than an immediate concern New Zealand's manufacturing sector continued to expand in July, according to the latest BNZ BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index, though growth slowed markedly from the exceptional pace recorded a month earlier.The seasonally adjusted PMI came in at 54.3 for July, down from 60.1 in June but still comfortably above May's 51.5 reading and well clear of the survey's long term average of 52.5. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, so despite the sharp month on month drop, the sector remains firmly in growth territory.BusinessNZ's Director of Advocacy, Catherine Beard, said the easing was to be expected following such a strong June result, and that a reading of 54.3 still represents a solid outcome for the sector. She said the more notable development was a shift in tone among survey respondents, with a majority of comments now running negative. Manufacturers continued to point to the conflict in the Middle East, elevated fuel and raw material costs, and a broader reluctance among customers to spend, while a number also flagged uncertainty tied to the upcoming election as a factor weighing on confidence.Beyond the headline figure, respondent commentary painted a mixed picture. Cost pressures, spanning fuel, freight, raw materials and the flow on effects of the Middle East conflict, remained a dominant theme, though a meaningful share of manufacturers pointed to steady order books and stronger export sales as reasons for cautious optimism heading into the second half of the year.All five sub-indices remained in expansion during July, though each eased from June's elevated readings. Production was the strongest component at 57.3, followed by Deliveries at 55.8. New Orders retreated to 53.3 and Finished Stocks eased to 53.2, while Employment was the softest of the group at 52.8, suggesting hiring intentions among manufacturers are cooling faster than output itself.BNZ senior economist Doug Steel struck a measured tone on the pullback, noting that some month to month volatility in the PMI is common and should not be read as an immediate cause for concern. Taken together, the data suggests New Zealand's manufacturing sector is still expanding at a healthy clip, but doing so against a backdrop of rising caution among the businesses actually producing the growth, a dynamic that will be worth watching in the run up to the election and as Middle East related cost pressures continue to filter through supply chains. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goolsbee's comments add a third data point to a week that has increasingly split the Fed along familiar lines, with his tariff and oil driven framing echoing Barkin's shocks should pass argument from Thursday rather than Hammack's insistence that policy needs to tighten now. The Chicago Fed president is not a voter this year, same as Barkin, so his comments carry more weight as a sentiment signal than as a lever on the September decision, but a third relatively patient voice in the same 24 hour window will likely reinforce the market's move toward pricing out a hike rather than pricing one in. Watch for whether any sitting voters echo Goolsbee's framing before the next inflation print, since that would be a more meaningful confirmation of where the committee's centre of gravity is actually settling. --- Another Fed voice, another read on the same data, and Goolsbee lands closer to Barkin's patience than Hammack's urgency.Summary:Goolsbee said in a Fox News interview that recent inflation readings have been a little better and he is hopeful the trend continuesHe attributed much of the current inflation to tariffs and higher oil prices tied to the Iran war, calling them drivers he had hoped would prove one time increasesHe said getting those pressures into the rear view mirror could put inflation back on what he called the golden path toward the Fed's 2% targetHe described the current headline inflation level in the 3% range as too high but said incoming data has been encouragingHe called the broader US economy steadyHis tone lands closer to Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin's view that current shocks should pass than to Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack's call for immediate tightening Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Thursday that the latest US inflation data has been a little better, expressing hope that as the effects of tariffs and higher oil prices from the Iran war fade, price pressures can continue to ease. Speaking in a Fox News interview, Goolsbee said the overall inflation level sitting in the 3% range remains too high, but that recent incoming data offers some encouragement.Goolsbee attributed much of the current inflation surge to factors he had originally hoped would prove temporary. He said a lot of the drivers had come from tariffs and then from oil prices, disruptions he described as things the Fed hoped would be one time increases rather than a lasting shift in the inflation trend. If those pressures can be worked through, he said, the economy could return to what he called the golden path, one where inflation heads back toward the Fed's 2% objective. He also described the broader US economy as steady.Goolsbee's remarks land him closer to the more patient end of the Fed's current internal debate than to its hawkish wing. His framing echoes comments made the same day by Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin, who told the Greenville Chamber of Commerce that much of today's elevated inflation reflects shocks, including tariffs, oil prices and AI related demand, that he expects to pass, leaving current rates potentially restrictive enough without further tightening. Like Barkin, Goolsbee is not a voting member of the FOMC this year, meaning his comments function more as a read on the committee's broader mood than as a direct input into the head count for the next decision.That puts both men in contrast with Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack, a sitting voter who dissented in July in favour of an immediate hike and has continued pressing that case this week. Hammack has argued that current policy is not restrictive, that businesses remain eager to borrow and invest in ways that could add to price pressure, and that delaying action risks more pain for households and businesses the longer inflation stays above target. Where Goolsbee and Barkin are willing to wait and see whether current shocks fade on their own, Hammack has said she does not have confidence that recent improvement in the data will continue or prove sufficient, and has called for policy to act now rather than rely on a longer glide path back to 2%.With three regional presidents now on record within a matter of days, the committee's internal divide looks less like a binary hold versus hike debate and more like a spectrum, with Goolsbee's cautious optimism and Barkin's shocks should pass framing anchoring one end, and Hammack's urgency anchoring the other. All three attend every FOMC meeting and contribute to the discussion regardless of voting status, meaning their public remarks continue to shape the tone of the debate even where they cannot directly swing the September vote. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reddit shares jumped over 8.5% after hours Thursday after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the social media platform will join the S&P 500 before markets open on August 18, replacing AvalonBay Communities, which Equity Residential is acquiring. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Hammack's Dayton remarks (headlines here earlier) sharpen the hawkish end of the FOMC's internal split, arguing explicitly that current policy is not restrictive and that businesses remain eager to borrow and invest, a dynamic she sees as adding to price pressure rather than easing it. Her framing that the labor market is stable enough to absorb tighter policy removes the usual counterargument for patience, and her explicit rejection of any tension in the dual mandate leaves little room for a middle path in her own thinking. Coming from a sitting FOMC voter who already dissented in July, these comments keep hike odds from falling too far even as broader market pricing has been drifting toward a steady hold.--- Hammack is done waiting on inflation and wants the Fed to say so with its next rate decision, not its next round of data.Summary:Hammack said acting now is really critical to bring inflation back to the 2% target, warning that delay means more pain for individuals and businessesShe said Fed policy is not currently restrictive, pointing to businesses that remain eager to borrow and invest in growthShe described the labor market as reasonably stable, with unemployment between 4.1% and 4.3% over the past year sitting in what she considers the maximum employment zoneShe attributed low headline payroll growth, averaging around 20,000 jobs a month over the past three to 12 months, partly to recent immigration policy shifts, and still views the numbers as consistent with breakevenHammack was one of three dissenters at the Fed's July meeting who favoured raising rates rather than holding at 3.50% to 3.75%She cited anecdotes from businesses and households, including rising retail prices and people turning to food banks, as evidence inflation pressure remains widespread Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said Thursday that the central bank needs to act now to bring inflation back toward its 2% target, warning that further delay risks deeper pain for households and businesses. Speaking at a Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce event, Hammack said she sees no tension between the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices, arguing that the current moment calls for policy restraint rather than patience.Central to her case is the view that Fed policy is not currently restrictive. Hammack said businesses she speaks with remain eager to borrow and invest in growth opportunities, a dynamic she welcomes in principle but sees as adding to inflationary pressure if left unchecked. She argued that some degree of policy restraint is needed to bring inflation down from its current level above 3% toward the Fed's 2% objective.On the labor market, Hammack described conditions as reasonably stable, if less dynamic than in the past. She noted that headline payroll growth has averaged around 20,000 jobs a month over the past three to twelve months, a slowdown she partly attributes to recent shifts in immigration policy. Even accounting for that effect, she said the numbers remain consistent with what she considers a breakeven pace. She pointed to the unemployment rate holding between 4.1% and 4.3% over the past year as evidence the economy remains at maximum employment, removing what would otherwise be the strongest argument for keeping policy on hold.Hammack was one of three Federal Reserve officials who dissented at last month's meeting, preferring to raise rates rather than hold the federal funds rate in its current 3.50% to 3.75% range. She acknowledged that inflation data has improved over the past two months but said that improvement alone has not convinced her the underlying trend has turned, particularly with the Fed now more than five years removed from last hitting its 2% target. She said the central question is not whether inflation eventually returns to target but how quickly that needs to happen, questioning whether a three to four year glide path back to target would be an acceptable outcome.To illustrate the pressure she sees building in the real economy, Hammack cited conversations with businesses and households. She described a Cincinnati retailer raising prices preemptively simply because further cost pressure felt inevitable, a father missing his son's travel football games due to high fuel costs, and people with steady jobs turning to food banks to manage household budgets. Those anecdotes, she said, underline why she believes the Fed needs to move faster than a longer term path back to target would otherwise suggest, reinforcing her position as one of the more hawkish voices on the current committee.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The pullback marks a clean break from the six session rally that had carried both benchmarks higher into Wednesday, with a hefty build in US crude stocks doing more to move price than any single geopolitical headline. Prices did claw back from a much steeper intraday drop of over 3.5% after the Houthi attack on Aramco's Jazan refinery, a reminder that supply risk premium has not vanished even as demand concerns dominate the tape. Diesel cracks pushing to a record high alongside falling crude prices points to a market that is increasingly differentiating between crude oversupply and product side tightness. With Hormuz traffic estimates still wildly inconsistent between officials and shipping data, expect continued two way volatility until a single clear narrative on strait access takes hold.---Earlier:Oil extends drop to $3 and it's not clear what's driving it--- Oil broke its rally on demand worries and a big inventory build, even as the Houthis, Hormuz and Russian refinery outages kept supply risk very much alive.Summary:Brent and WTI both settled down circa 2%, snapping a six session winning streak, after earlier session losses of more than 3.5%WTI traded roughly between $80 and $83 a barrel, Brent roughly between $86 and $89US commercial crude inventories posted their largest weekly build (here, and early heads up to this here) since January 2023, rising by around 17 million barrels to roughly 424 million, their highest level since early JuneOPEC and the IEA both cut 2026 demand growth forecasts, OPEC to around 580,000 bpd and the IEA to a contraction of roughly 1.6 million bpdYemen's Houthis struck Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery with two drones, sending diesel cracks to a record highIran and the US continued to make competing claims over control of the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping data showing vessel crossings near three week lows against a pre war average of 125 to 140 vessels a day Oil settled down circa 2% on Thursday, reversing course after a six session rally, as investors focused on signs of weaker global demand and a sizeable build in US crude inventories that outweighed a fresh supply scare in the Gulf.Both benchmarks were down considerably more earlier in the session, falling over 3.5% at one point, before paring losses following reports that Yemen's Houthi rebels had targeted a Saudi Aramco refinery with drones, a headline that briefly reignited concerns over further supply disruption in an already tight market. Brent ultimately finished around $87 a barrel, while WTI closed near $81, trading roughly between $80 and $83 across the session, with Brent ranging roughly between $86 and $89.The bigger driver was inventory data. The US Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude stocks posted their largest weekly gain since January 2023, rising by roughly 17 million barrels to around 424 million, their highest level since early June, as exports slumped. That build landed alongside fresh demand downgrades from both major forecasters, with OPEC trimming its 2026 demand growth estimate to around 580,000 bpd and the International Energy Agency now projecting a contraction of roughly 1.6 million bpd in consumption this year, wider than the 1 million bpd contraction it had forecast just a month earlier, citing higher prices and restricted supply tied to the US-Israeli war with Iran.The Houthi strike on Aramco's Jazan refinery, a facility with capacity to produce around 250,000 bpd of ultra low sulfur diesel, pushed diesel cracks to a record high even as crude itself fell, underlining a growing split between crude and product market dynamics. A Houthi military source said the attack was retaliation for alleged Saudi violations of Yemeni airspace and sovereignty in Saada and Hajjah provinces, though Saudi Arabia had not commented on the report at time of writing.Competing claims over the Strait of Hormuz continued to muddy the picture. Iran's Basij paramilitary chief said the strait remained under Iran's control and management, a day after President Trump claimed the US had total control of the waterway. A senior Iranian source said talks to revive June's interim deal and set a timeline for implementation have made no progress, while US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Washington could maintain its blockade on Iranian ports indefinitely. Estimates of actual flow through the strait remain sharply inconsistent, with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright citing around 9 million bpd moving through weekly even as shipping data showed vessel crossings, excluding container ships, falling to just five on Wednesday, their lowest in three weeks and a fraction of the 125 to 140 vessels that transited daily before the war.Adding to the tightness elsewhere, Russia's seaborne oil product exports fell sharply in July after Ukrainian drone strikes forced unplanned maintenance at several domestic refineries. A refinery in the Russian city of Orsk, hit by a drone strike earlier this week, has been forced offline entirely, with regional officials saying repairs could take up to six months. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The abrupt pull raises the obvious question of timing, given the meeting had been on the calendar since Monday and was widely framed as the SEC stepping in to fill the gap left by the Senate's failure to advance the CLARITY Act before recess. A genuine scheduling conflict is plausible given the short four day notice period the agency used to announce the meeting in the first place, but crypto markets that had been pricing in a pro industry regulatory signal this week will likely read any delay as a source of fresh uncertainty until a new date is confirmed. Watch for reaction in token prices tied to fundraising exemptions and for commentary from Chair Atkins or fellow commissioners clarifying whether this is a short administrative delay or a sign of internal disagreement over the rule text.--- Washington's first formal attempt at crypto specific rulemaking hits a delay before it even reaches a vote.Summary:Reuters reported at 5.13pm on August 13 that the SEC abruptly cancelled its anticipated Friday meeting to propose crypto regulationsThe SEC said in a statement the meeting will be moved, citing an unforeseen scheduling issueNo new date was given in the reported statementThe meeting in question was set for Friday August 14 at 10am ET to consider proposing Regulation Crypto, the SEC's first formal crypto specific rulemakingThe session had been announced on unusually short notice on August 10, four days ahead rather than the standard weekIt followed the Senate's failure to advance the CLARITY Act before its August recess, with that bill's procedural vote now not expected until September 15 The US Securities and Exchange Commission has abruptly cancelled a meeting scheduled for Friday at which commissioners were expected to vote on proposing the agency's first formal crypto specific rulemaking, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing an SEC statement.The statement, issued at 5.13pm on August 13, said the meeting would be moved, citing an unforeseen scheduling issue. No new date was included in the reported statement.The now delayed session had been set for 10am on Friday August 14 at the SEC's Washington headquarters, where the three member commission was due to consider whether to formally propose Regulation Crypto, a framework built around tailored fundraising exemptions for token projects. The agency had announced the meeting on unusually short notice on August 10, giving only four days warning rather than the standard week required for public sessions, a compressed timeline that at the time signalled urgency around the rulemaking.That urgency was tied directly to events in Congress. The Senate failed to advance a procedural cloture vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act before departing for its August recess, pushing the broader legislative framework for crypto market structure into limbo, with the next opportunity for Senate action not expected until September 15. In that vacuum, Friday's meeting had been widely characterised as the SEC moving to fill the regulatory gap through rulemaking rather than waiting on Congress, a project Chair Paul Atkins has been building toward publicly since March.The cancellation leaves that plan on hold for now. A scheduling conflict of the kind cited is not unusual given how compressed the original notice period was, and it does not necessarily point to disagreement within the commission over the substance of the proposal. Even so, the timing, hours before a vote that had been positioned as a marquee moment for US crypto policy, is likely to draw scrutiny from an industry that has been watching Washington closely for any sign of regulatory clarity. Markets and commentators will now be watching for confirmation of a rescheduled date and for any statement from Atkins or his fellow commissioners on what caused the delay.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The affirmation removes near term downgrade risk from the US sovereign story, but the accompanying commentary leans cautious rather than reassuring. Fitch's growth downgrade from 2.8% to 1.9% alongside a weakening labor market gives fixed income desks another data point supporting the softer Fed rate hike odds already in play this week. The agency's explicit flag on gridlock and shutdown risk, combined with a structural fiscal deterioration tied to entitlement spending, keeps the long end of the Treasury curve sensitive to any fresh political dysfunction out of Washington. None of this is new information for the market, given Fitch's 2023 downgrade to AA+ already priced in much of this fiscal narrative, so the reaction should be muted rather than a fresh catalyst.---Earlier:investingLive Americas market news wrap: S&P 500 hits a fresh record---Fitch keeps America's credit score unchanged, but the fine print reads like a warning about Washington's ability to fund its own promises.Summary:Fitch affirmed the United States at AA+ with a stable outlookGrowth is forecast to slow to 1.9% in 2026 and 2027, down from 2.8% in 2025The rating is supported by the size of the US economy, high per capita income, a dynamic business environment and exceptional financing flexibilityLabor demand has weakened and job creation has dropped significantly in 2026Fitch expects inflation to reach target by the end of 2028The agency warns gridlock and government shutdowns may become more likely and more protracted, while Medicare and Social Security costs are set to expand by nearly one percentage point of GDP by 2032, adding to high deficits, a substantial interest burden and rising debt levels that constrain the rating Fitch Ratings affirmed the United States' long term sovereign credit rating at AA+ on Thursday, maintaining a stable outlook even as the agency flagged a slowing economy and mounting fiscal strain over the coming years.The rating agency now expects US growth to moderate to 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027, a step down from 2.8% recorded in 2025. Fitch pointed to a clear cooling in the labor market as a key driver of that slowdown, noting that labor demand has weakened and job creation has dropped significantly this year. On inflation, the agency struck a more patient tone than some Fed officials currently debating further rate hikes, projecting that price growth will not return to target until the end of 2028.Despite the softer growth outlook, Fitch said the AA+ rating remains underpinned by the fundamental strength of the US economy. The agency cited the sheer scale of American output, high per capita income levels, a dynamic business environment and what it called exceptional financing flexibility, a reference to the dollar's reserve currency status and the depth of Treasury markets, as core supports for the rating even amid weaker near term growth.The more pointed warnings in Fitch's commentary centred on fiscal policy and political dysfunction. The agency said gridlock and government shutdowns may become both more likely and more protracted going forward, a risk that has repeatedly rattled markets in recent years as funding deadlines come and go without resolution. Longer term, Fitch highlighted the growing burden of entitlement spending, projecting that Medicare and Social Security expenditures will expand by nearly one percentage point of GDP by 2032 as the population continues to age.Taken together, Fitch said high fiscal deficits, a substantial interest burden and government debt levels that are already high and still rising continue to constrain the rating, even as the agency stopped short of signaling any near term downgrade risk. The affirmation effectively locks in the assessment Fitch first arrived at in 2023, when it stripped the United States of its top AAA rating, citing many of the same structural concerns around fiscal governance and repeated brinkmanship over the debt ceiling. With no material change in trajectory since then, Thursday's decision reads less as new information for markets and more as a formal restatement of a fiscal picture that ratings agencies, and increasingly bond investors, have already priced in.Fitch is one of the "Big Three" credit rating agencies, alongside S&P Global Ratings and Moody's, and together the three control the overwhelming majority of the global ratings market, generally estimated at somewhere north of 90-95% between them. Within that trio, Fitch is usually seen as the smallest of the three by market share and revenue, with S&P and Moody's regarded as the more dominant, more closely watched pair, particularly by US Treasury and equity markets.That said, Fitch still carries real weight for a few reasons. It's recognised as a Nationally Recognised Statistical Rating Organization by the SEC, the same designation that gives S&P and Moody's their regulatory authority, so its ratings feed into the same bank capital rules, bond index inclusion criteria, and institutional mandate thresholds. Many large institutional investors and index providers require ratings from at least two of the three agencies, which keeps Fitch structurally relevant even when it isn't the market mover.On sovereign ratings specifically, Fitch's actions do tend to draw outsized attention relative to its size, largely because of precedent: its 2023 downgrade of the US from AAA to AA+ was a genuine market event, given Moody's was the last to hold the US at the top tier until 2025 and S&P had already downgraded back in 2011. So while Fitch's day-to-day sovereign and corporate calls often move markets less than an S&P or Moody's action, on the US specifically it has some claim to having been ahead of the other two, which lends its commentary a bit more scrutiny than its market share alone would suggest. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.