Prior was +0.2New orders +6.1 vs +11.8 priorPrices paid 32.7 vs 31.7 priorEmployment -1.0 vs +7.5 priorThe surging energy market is undoubtedly a boom for Texas, even with the associated inflation headwinds. However it's going to be tough to pull the trigger on fresh drilling unless executives feel that the war will continue.The comments in the report might be more representative of how higher energy is hitting the broader economy:Beverage and tobacco product manufacturingWe have seen decreases in some of our costs, in particular agricultural raw materials. We have seen increases in the costs of our packaging materials, some of this related to increase in energy costs. We expect the Iran war to cause increases in energy costs for a period extending at least six months and potentially longer. This has increased our uncertainty for the rest of the year.Chemical manufacturingThe Iran war and bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz has caused significant supply chain disruption from China, allowing the U.S. chemicals sector to benefit from the supply bottleneck. We believe this to be short-lived and the situation to return to the lower demand levels in the latter half of 2026.Computer and electronic product manufacturingI am thinking about recommending to our board to close the company.We have seen no impact yet from higher fuel prices. However, we expect to see this very soon, as our vendors will increase raw materials prices to include the increased cost for transportation.We would like to see lower interest rates throughout this year.Food manufacturingContinuing confusion at the federal level, illiquid consumer base and falling federal government spending are not helping the food industry.High density Hispanic channels are down. Costs are up, and freight is increasing fast. Tariff chaos has wreaked havoc with all of our export customers and seasoning suppliers. We are worried about costs increasing due to fuel price increases. We are worried about a slowdown in the economy due to geopolitics.Furniture and related product manufacturingThe Iran war and impact on energy prices are concerns as consumers have to deal with the rapid increase in energy cost. Hopefully it will moderate as the conflict curtails. That said, the more demoralizing impact of the constant circus out of Washington and inability to fund critical infrastructure like TSA is killing the animal spirits of our economy.Machinery manufacturingWe are beating our competition due to the continued vertical integration plans that we are focused on implementing and improving. This requires a great deal of planning and money, but the payout is very sound.Spring has sprung. It’s truly like the balm of Gilead. After an extended period of ailment and woe, the healing has occurred and we are on our way to greater things. Our business growth thus far in 2026 is like a sweet fragrance that is healing our loss and hardship from prior years. We are still seeing strong business activity with our backlog increasing.Our company is seeing an increase in activity totally unrelated to the current geopolitical conditions. The effect of uncertainty delayed the start of a new manufacturing project in the U.S. (tariffs, capital expenditures) in 2025. Project 2025 is underway with a six-month delay and scaled back to accommodate a less ambitious picture for 2026. We are still recovering from 2025 plus a more conservative outlook for 2026. Things are trending upward in our field but at a much slower pace.Miscellaneous manufacturingMany external factors contributing to an unstable market.If we could get our tariff reimbursement back, that would put us in a position to invest in growth. Without it, though, we don't have the capital to invest in growth.Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturingWe are waiting for home building activity to pick up, which is dependent upon interest rates.Paper manufacturingOverall business still slow. Have achieved limited price reductions in some raw materials that are in an oversupply condition but not enough to keep up with the decline in selling prices of our products. We still see upward pressure on labor and benefits cost. Margins are reduced from 12 months ago.Plastics and rubber products manufacturingImporting from China is precarious. The costs of product and freight are higher and slower. Suppliers are apprehensive. Their costs are increasing, especially a certain raw material plastic impacted by petrochemicals affected by cost of oil.Printing and related support activitiesWe have been stupid slow recently, slower than we can recall in many years. We continue to believe it’s from the chaos and confusion coming out of Washington. In addition, now with the Iran war, prices are going to shoot up due to shipping costs, and tariffs are still in effect. So, there is no telling when business will start to improve. We have some nice work coming in soon, but it's work we knew was coming. We are seeing some improvement in our estimating backlog, which is a good sign of better days to come. The war is causing a disruption of raw materials prices as we are producing plastic-based products, virtually all of our raw materials are hydrocarbon based. Fifteen percent increases are normal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USD is pushing to new session highs against the EUR, GBP, CHF, and AUD in late-day trading, showing renewed demand even as US yields move lower. The 2-year yield is down -7.4 basis points to 3.840%, while the 10-year is off -8.6 basis points at 4.354%. That divergence—stronger dollar alongside falling yields—suggests flows and positioning are currently outweighing rate dynamics.At the same time, oil prices are holding firm, while equities are losing some upside momentum. The Nasdaq has erased earlier gains and is now chopping around unchanged. The S&P is still modestly higher by 0.21%, and the Dow is up 0.44%, but the tone is less convincing as the session progresses.From a technical perspective, the dollar strength is showing up clearly across the major pairs:EURUSD: The pair has broken below a key swing area between 1.1484 and 1.1491, turning that zone into a risk-defining level for sellers. Staying below keeps the bearish bias intact, with the next downside target coming near the March lows at 1.1407.GBPUSD: Sellers have taken control after breaking below the March/2026 lows between 1.3217 and 1.3229. That area now acts as close resistance. On the downside, a daily swing area between 1.3138 and 1.3178 becomes the next target zone.USDJPY: The pair initially moved lower, breaking below its 100-hour moving average at 159.45, but downside momentum stalled ahead of an upward-sloping trendline and the 200-hour moving average at 159.18. Buyers leaned against that support, and the pair has since bounced as broader USD buying re-emerges—even as concerns linger about underlying yen weakness.USDCHF: The USDCHF has extended to new highs, breaking above a key swing area between 0.7978 and 0.7989, which tilts the bias more firmly to the upside. The move has now pushed above the natural resistance at 0.8000, with the high reaching 0.8005. Holding above 0.8000 keeps buyers in control and opens the door for further upside extension. A move back below the prior swing area would be needed to take some of the bullish momentum away, but for now, the break and hold above that cluster gives buyers the green light.AUDUSD: The AUDUSD broke below a key swing area last week between 0.6896 and 0.6908, and that shift has clearly opened the downside. The break is significant because, going back to January, the pair moved quickly higher through that zone—leaving little in the way of meaningful support on the way down. That creates more of an “open road” feel for sellers. The next natural support comes in near 0.6800, followed by 0.6765. Beyond that, traders will look toward the January low at 0.6658 as a key longer-term downside target.Bottom line: The USD is in control across the board. EURUSD and GBPUSD have broken key support levels (higher USD), keeping the bearish bias intact with room to extend lower. USDCHF is breaking higher and holding above 0.8000, reinforcing upside momentum. AUDUSD has entered “open road” territory to the downside after its breakdown. The only pause is in USDJPY which is lower on the day (lower USD), but where buyers are holding key support after a dip—but even there, USD demand is starting to reassert itself. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

S&P 500 futures were up 50 points shortly before the open, but that's faded to just +5 shortly after the open.The drop in stocks has come as oil prices have ticked back higher. WTI crude is up $2.96 to $102.56 and that's now just 80-cents from the session high. Given the threats from Trump, there is the threat of the destruction of Iran's oil industry, and the corresponding attacks by Iran on its neighbour's facilities. That would plunge the world into crisis as there is no way to bring those barrels back or replace them.Despite rising oil, the bond market is increasingly seeing a flight to safety. US 10-year yields are now down 9 bps and near a session low at 4.35%. There is an argument for looking beyond the oil shock towards the growth shock from energy.Admittedly, I was puzzled by the optimism in stock markets and some of it was clearly driven by tech stocks. Those are unfortunately facing their own questions about the impacts of AI and huge capex spending. The Nasdaq is trading just above flat now with memory names as the laggard.A report late last week emphasized that the huge 'orders' that OpenAI made for memory were not firm and might be declined. The prices of memory have loosened notably lately and the laggard today is Western Digital, down 4.6% and trading at the lowest since March 12. Memory has been the best-performing trade this year and its weakening is a worrisome sign that there's nowhere to hide.There is also some pressure on chipmakers while some of the cybersecurity names have rebounded. There is some real concern about a leaked blog post from Anthropic that says a new model is a huge risk to security. That saw names like Palo Alto Networks plunge on Friday but the same name is up 6.1% today, in part because the CEO bought $10m in shares in a weekend filing. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

USD/JPY began a fall earlier today after Japan’s FX chief Atsushi Mimura warned authorities are ready to take “decisive” action if speculative moves persist. It was the strongest intervention signal yet and led to a quick drop from 160.40 to below the big figure.That decline has continued and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama is now piling on, saying that Japan is watching market moves with a "high sense of urgency". Katayama has used the 'decisive' comment recently but Mimura is seen as the final line of rhetoric before intervention.I warned on Friday about the potential for intervention or tough talk as the pair was flirting with some major levels.Now we're getting a significant reversal but it's still dwarfed by the January 23 'rate check move where the pair dove from 159.22 down to 155.71 and then continued to 153.30 in the subsequent two days.But with an energy crisis brewing, Japan is in a tough spot. They have huge reserves of oil but higher energy costs will ultimately sap its current account and drive up borrowing costs. It's naturally one of the most hard-hit major economies in a global energy crisis because it imports virtually all its energy. Last year, Japan embarked on a restart of its nuclear power facilities but that's a long-term aid, not a short-term solution. Japan will also have a difficult time negotiating directly with Tehran for passage of its ships through Hormuz.USD/JPY was last down 94 pips to 159.37.Zooming out to a weekly chart, the importance of 160.00 is clear. That's capped the pair since 2024 when there was a major intervention and top. There is a reluctance for speculators to push it through but at some point the fundamentals take over. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD is pushing higher again today, extending the trend-like rally that began last Monday—and doing so with solid technical backing.Last week’s turning point came when the pair found support near the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, bottoming at 1.3669 (just above the MA at 1.3662). From there, the buyers took control. The subsequent move higher broke through a key cluster of resistance, including the 100-day MA (1.3790), the 200-day MA (1.3803), and the 50% retracement of the move down from the November 2025 high (1.3810). That confluence break was the green light for buyers—and they responded. The pair rallied 226 pips into the weekly close at 1.3892.Momentum has carried into today’s session, with price extending to a high of 1.3927. That move has now pushed the pair into a well-defined swing area between 1.3924 and 1.3937—a zone that has acted as both resistance and support going back to August, and one that capped the rally in January near 1.3928.This is where things get interesting.If buyers can push above 1.3937 and hold, it opens the door for further upside extension. The trend remains intact, and as always, the bias stays with the direction of momentum—the trend is your friend.However, this area also offers a low-risk opportunity for sellers. With price pressing into a well-established resistance zone, traders looking for a corrective move may lean against it.On the downside, a move back below the 61.8% retracement at 1.3888 would start to give sellers a foothold. A break below 1.3860—and more importantly 1.3843—would increase confidence that a near-term high is in place and shift the bias more neutral to bearish.Key levels to watch:Resistance: 1.3924–1.3937 (swing area); break above keeps the bullish trend in play Support: 1.3888 (61.8% retracement), 1.3860, 1.3843 For now, the buyers remain in control—but they’re being tested at a key technical ceiling. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The mood is positive in US markets so far this week as Trump talks about a de-escalation.The messages are mixed though and that's leading to some confusion. The oil market remains 1.8% higher but US stock futures are up 0.8% and Treasury yields are down 5-7 bps across the curve.Trump tweeted about negotiations, much as he did last week, but this time the pop in US stock futures was fleeting. The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately "Open for Business," we will conclude our lovely "stay" in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet "touched." This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime's 47 year "Reign of Terror." Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMPSince then, we have had messages from both sides trying to clarify and re-frame. Iran's response seemingly came via Fars News. They noted that Iranian officials say no negotiations have taken place with the US and that none are planned.They say it's some kind of messaging indicating that Trump is trying to show that Iran is looking for negotiations for show. The upside of that is that he is trying to show himself as the winner of the war and is looking to end the war.On the US side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio somewhat contradicted Trump in comments to ABC. Rather than saying different people were speaking, he said the people in Iran are speaking to us in different ways than before. He didn't offer much else but reiterated that the objectives of the operation were to destroy the Iranian navy and its defensive industrial base and its capability to manufacture missile launchers. He also said -- ominously -- that the US prefers to settle the war diplomatically but must be prepared for the possibility of diplomacy failing with Iran.Perhaps telling is that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was also rolled out on Fox News and spent most of the interview trying to talk down oil prices. He said the market is 'well supplied' despite the missing 10-12 mbps. He also said the US would take control of the Strait of Hormuz over time.For now, it's tough to argue with the price action in markets but it's equally tough to have any conviction in how this will end. Trump is repeatedly talking positively about negotiations but there is almost no verification of that from any other angle and reports were fairly consistent that Iran didn't even participate in talks in Pakistan.We are increasingly at the point where one of my favourite memes applies. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USD is trading mixed to start the session. The USDJPY is backing off its highs as it approaches the 2024 peak, with Japanese officials — including the Bank of Japan — growing increasingly concerned about currency weakness. That proximity to a key technical level, combined with policy sensitivity, is helping to stall the upside momentum.Elsewhere, the greenback is firmer against both the EUR and GBP, keeping the broader dollar tone supported.On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that negotiations with the new regime are making progress, but struck a more aggressive tone by warning the U.S. could “obliterate” key energy infrastructure — including Kharg Island, a critical oil export hub — and even desalination facilities. That rhetoric underscores that the game of chicken continues, with markets balancing diplomacy against escalation risk.Despite the tension, equities are leaning higher. The Dow is up around 300 points, the Nasdaq is higher by roughly 150, and the S&P is up about 40 points, suggesting investors are, for now, focusing on the prospect of progress rather than worst-case outcomes.In rates, yields are moving lower, with the 10-year down about 6.7 basis points and the 2-year off by roughly 5.1 basis points — a supportive backdrop for risk assets.Crude oil has backed off earlier highs, slipping from around $103.38 to near $101, as traders weigh supply risks against the evolving geopolitical narrative.In the video above, I break down the technical picture for the three major currency pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — and outline the key levels that are defining bias, risk, and potential targets. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Global leader in the online trading and financial services sector, XM has been awarded the Best Gold Broker and Best Customer Service for2026 by Capital Finance International (CFI.co). This recognition stands as a formal validation of its established institutional strength, operational resilience, and the service standards it has maintained for over 15 years. It also reflects XM’s long-standing collaboration with Capital Finance International (CFI.co), which has consistently assessed the company’s governance, transparency, and operational performance over the years. The ‘Best Gold Broker’ award underscores the multi-regulated broker’s capacity to provide a stable, deep-liquidity environment for one of the world’s most critical safe-haven assets. Over 700 million positions were opened on gold with XM in 2025 alone, reaffirming its position as a trusted broker for gold traders. "These awards from CFI.co are a testament to the stability and transparency we have built over the last decade and a half," said the Group co-CEO of XM Menelaos Menelaou. "At XM, our focus is not on short-term wins but on the long-term responsibility we hold toward our global traders. As we navigate 2026, our priority is to continue ensuring that every client can rely on our stability and execution during any market condition.”So far, 2026 has been defined by significant market volatility, during which XM’s infrastructure has demonstrated exceptional execution quality and competitive pricing that allowed traders to take advantage of gold trading opportunities, even during historic market conditions. The superior trading conditions XM traders have come to rely on are backed by a global customer experience team that always places human connection at the heart of the company’s mission. The ‘Best Customer Service’ award reflects over a decade of building bridges and establishing communication with traders and partners in over 190 countries. Through advanced technology and human expertise, XM provides multilingual support around the clock. "Our recognition for Best Customer Service is the result of continuous, measurable investment in our human connections. We have moved beyond traditional support by integrating local, culturally-focused expertise supported by the latest technologies.” said Simos Konis, Chief Experience Officer, “This award validates our commitment to constant improvement and the belief that a trader’s success is directly linked to the quality of the trading environment surrounding them."Building on this commitment to excellence, XM continues to combine operational strength with client-focused service to deliver the reliability, transparency, and standards traders need in today’s complex markets.#XMCFIAwards2026About XM XM is an internationally established trading and investment firm, with over 20 million clients, from over 190 countries. Armed with multiple international licenses, XM offers competitive services for retail traders, investors, and affiliates. With over 15 years of serving clients, XM has proven to be fair, trustworthy, and dependable. Traders can access over 1,400 instruments across all devices. The award-winning broker is known for its wide range of products, excellent support, and outstanding education. Risk Warning: Trading involves significant risks and may result in the loss of your invested capital. T&Cs apply Disclaimer: Promotions and bonuses are not available for accounts registered under XM's EU-based entity. Specific regions may be excluded. The XM Group operates globally under various entities, so products, services, and features listed here vary between XM entities. For further information, please visit the XM website. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Prior +1.9%HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expectedPrior +2.0%Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs +2.5% priorFull report hereEverything as expected with limited market reaction. Destatis notes that energy prices are expected to be up 7.2% on the same month of the previous year. This is the first increase in energy prices since December 2023.The market is pricing in 64% chance of an ECB rate hike in April and a total of 75 bps of tightening by year-end (three hikes in total). Judging by the recent ECB commentary, they seem inclined to look through the March spike in inflation and lay the groundwork for a rate hike in June if the US-Iran war were to persist. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Trump on Truth Social:The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.” Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMPNice words followed by the usual threat of blowing up everything if a deal isn't reached. The algos reacted positively to the first line but the moves are now getting faded as this is likely another attempt to jawbone oil prices and stop the stock market bleeding.As a reminder, Trump's "ceasefire" expires on April 6, which is next Monday. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Iran's FM spokesperson: US proposals have mostly been 'unrealistic and excessive'USDJPY falls below the key 160.00 handle amid intensifying verbal interventionMonth-end flows point to dollar buying into the fix - BofADollar buying looks to be the flavour this month-endBOJ reaffirms that underlying inflation is rising moderately towards 2% levelBavaria March CPI +2.8% vs +1.9% y/y priorEuro area economic sentiment eases in March as Middle East conflict stokes inflation fearsMarkets:WTI crude oil trades near three-week high at $101.67S&P 500 futures up 0.5%, European indices more mixed10-year Treasury yields down 5 bps to 4.39%USD mostly higher, only USD/JPY down 0.5% to 159.55 amid Tokyo verbal interventionGold up 0.8% to $4,530, Silver up 2% to $70.99It was a quieter session in general as we continue to wait on further developments on the war in the Middle East.US president Trump set a date for 6 April in getting a deal done while not striking at key Iranian energy facilities. But with today gone, that is one more day closer to the deadline. And still, it doesn't seem like we are anywhere near with Iran reaffirming that the proposal by the US is something they can't ascribe to.Meanwhile, ground forces are beginning to move and that is something that could result in further escalation in the conflict. So, there is that.Oil prices are keeping higher with WTI crude even hitting a three-week high of $103 earlier in the day before coming off slightly. Still, we are seeing prices hold up at around $101.67 currently. And with no change to the Strait of Hormuz situation, there is no change to the outlook that things will get more crippling for the oil market day by day.Despite oil trading back above three figures, the risk mood remains calmer somewhat - at least for now. US futures are sitting higher while European indices are at least not bleeding out any further. That comes as 10-year Treasury yields also cool slightly with it being down 5 bps to 4.39%. As such, S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% but let's see what Wall Street has to say later.In FX, the dollar is mostly a little higher on the day with EUR/USD nudging down below 1.1500 and AUD/USD down 0.2% to 0.6855 currently. The only exception is USD/JPY, which is down 0.5% to 159.50 levels after some verbal intervention by Tokyo after the pair hit above 160.00 earlier in the day.As we get into the new week, just be reminded that it is month-end and quarter-end as we look to wrap up March trading. That might be a factor in making things a bit more messy in terms of price action dynamics in the sessions ahead. So, just be wary of that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe S&P 500 broke through a key support on Friday and extended the losses into new lows as traders hedged into the weekend risk. Those hedges are being unwound today given that nothing happened over the weekend. The focus remains solely on the US-Iran negotiations and there’s some cautious optimism as Pakistan confirmed that negotiations may take place in Islamabad in the coming days and Trump said that they are performing extremely well and they could make a deal pretty soon, although he added that they might fail as well.The path of least resistance remains to the downside until we get a resolution. Traders will keep a watchful eye on the headlines and especially on Trump’s Truth Social account, as we are always one post away from huge market moves. Trump's ceasefire expires on April 6, so there's a chance we get a deal before that as failure to reach one would increase substantially recession risks. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 broke through the key support around the 6,525 level again on Friday and eventually extended the losses into the 6,363 level before bouncing. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the broken support turned resistance to position for new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to extend the pullback into the major trendline.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the 6,525 resistance.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will look for a rejection around the trendline, while the buyers will look for a break. The red lines define average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow, we get the US Consumer Confidence and US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP, the US Retail Sales and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

No direct talks with the US took place, only messages via intermediaries Proposals conveyed to Iran have mostly been 'unrealistic, unreasonable and excessive'Tehran is dismissing reports of direct negotiations with Washington, clarifying that recent diplomatic exchanges have been limited to messages conveyed through third-party intermediaries. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, emphasized that these communications do not constitute formal "talks," reiterating the long-standing refusal to engage in direct dialogue under current conditions.According to the Foreign Ministry, the proposals received from the US via these mediators have been largely characterized as "unrealistic, unreasonable, and excessive." Iranian officials suggest that the terms presented by the US side fail to account for regional realities and represent a "maximalist" approach that Tehran is unwilling to engage. The spokesperson noted that Iran’s leadership has reviewed the messages but found the demands to be deceptive, suggesting they are part of a broader strategy to exert pressure rather than a sincere effort at diplomacy.This stance comes amid a backdrop of heightened tensions, with Tehran pointing to past experiences with American diplomacy as a primary reason for its current skepticism. Specifically, Iranian officials cited instances where they claim the US initiated military actions or applied new sanctions while diplomatic channels were still active. As a result, the Foreign Ministry maintained that the country's current focus remains on national defense and sovereignty rather than entering into what it views as a lopsided negotiating framework.While several regional "friendly countries", including Pakistan and Oman, have attempted to facilitate a breakthrough, Iran has remained firm that it will only consider an end to hostilities on its own terms. These conditions reportedly include the total cessation of "aggression and assassinations," guaranteed reparations for war damages, and formal recognition of Iran’s sovereign rights. Until such conditions are met, the Foreign Ministry indicates that any messages from Washington will continue to be viewed as insufficient. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Euro area economic confidence slipped to 96.6 in March, after recording a revised 98.2 reading in February. That's the lowest estimate since September with consumer confidence (-16.3) also falling back on the month to its lowest since the latter months of 2023.It's all coming undone as the US-Iran war stirs up inflation fears in Europe once again. That as energy prices in the region are surging as the conflict spreads through the Middle East, with disruptions to key gas facilities - in particular Qatar.The risk now is that the conflict drags on for longer, and that might see higher prices become more entrenched. In turn, that will feed into broader price pressures in general. The ECB had previously been looking to potential rate cuts if and when German inflation settles, but that particular playbook is now thrown out the window. Interest rate hikes are back on the menu instead.In terms of consumer inflation expectations, the index there is seen rising to 43.4 in the latest report. That is a sharp jump and marks the highest since July 2022.Meanwhile, selling price expectations also rose to 19.7 - up from 11.5 previously. And that is another marked increase to its highest since February 2023.The trend is pointing to a somewhat repeat episode of the 2021-22 inflation scare brought about by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For now, things are more measured with the energy price spike being not as drastic. But again if the situation carries on for longer, the risk of it becoming more and more profound is going to increase day by day. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

According to BofA's month-end fixing model, the dollar is the one favoured as we look to wrap up March and Q1 trading in the coming days. This fits with what was pointed out by both Credit Agricole and Barclays earlier here.Of note, BofA says that:"Our estimates suggest the potential for (1) material inflows into USD-denominated assets (c.+1.0σ) and to a lesser extend EUR assets (c.0.2σ), vs (2) outflows from JPY (c.-1.7σ), EM (c.-1.4σ) and GBP (c.-1.1σ) assets."The rebalancing against the yen and sterling fits with what Barclays was also arguing with their own model as well. So, that is something to take note of just in case.However, BofA does point out that USD/CHF might be the biggest beneficiary in closing out the month:"The direction of travel clearly suggests strong USD/CHF buying, driven primarily by the sharp drawdown in US equities. With bond returns also posting negative returns, we think this could be one of the larger USD/CHF buying months of the year. The signal has been consistent enough for us to have confidence in the direction of flows."The currency pair had a solid run higher last week, gaining 1.4% and is now trying to test resistance around the 0.8000 mark. However, the pair did break above its 200-day moving average at the end of last week. That sees it trade above both key daily moving averages for the first time since March 2025. So, that in itself could be an impetus for further upside potential in the pair. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Composite indicators on medium-to-long-term inflation expectations show a gradual increase towards 2%Underlying inflation must be judged comprehensively by examining a wide range of informationIf recent rise in food prices were to persist, they could exert sustained upward impact on consumer pricesThe output gap has been on an improving trendLabour market remains extremely tight and wages are rising moderatelyFirms are continuing to pass on higher wagesThe mechanism in which wages and prices are rising moderately in tandem has been taking holdIncrease in oil prices can affect underlying inflation in both different directions, upward and downwardGiven changes in firms' price-setting behaviour, prices may not be more susceptible to depreciation in yen currencyFull releaseThere's nothing there that hasn't already been said by the BOJ in recent weeks. That especially after they sort of pushed back against the government in releasing a new monthly core CPI estimate and also revaluing the estimated natural rate of interest in the past week. So, this is just a follow up on that.For some context, the BOJ had been under a bit of scrutiny lately as Japan's headline inflation numbers show a drop back below the desired 2% target level. However, the central bank remains adamant that core prices and underlying inflation in general remains on an upward trajectory.As such, they are defending that raising interest rates remains the right path for monetary policy. That despite also challenges from the government. Hence, resulting in all the "evidence" being released in the past week in trying to prove to markets and the public that they are indeed the ones that are right. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Monday starts quietly, with no significant economic events scheduled for the FX market. For now, the key focus remains on developments about the conflict in Iran.The only other event of note on Monday is Fed Chair Powell’s participation in a moderated discussion at Harvard University in Massachusetts, which will include audience questions. While it is not expected to move markets, it remains worth watching for any noteworthy comments. On Tuesday, the Eurozone will release inflation data, while the U.S. will publish JOLTS job openings and Conference Board consumer confidence. Canada will also report its GDP m/m. Wednesday brings U.S. data including ADP employment change, retail sales m/m, and the ISM manufacturing PMI. Canada will release the BoC Summary of Deliberations. On Thursday, attention will turn to U.S. unemployment claims and Friday the focus will be on average hourly earnings m/m, the non-farm employment change and the unemployment rate. It is also worth noting that banks will be closed in many European countries, Canada and other parts of the world due to the Good Friday holiday, which could result in lower liquidity and more irregular market volatility. Several FOMC members are expected to deliver remarks throughout the week and don’t forget that the daylight saving time change has happened in Europe this weekend. Inflation data for the eurozone is expected to come in stronger, driven by rising energy prices, which could complicate the ECB’s goal for inflation to move toward a more favorable range. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has intensified price pressures, with its effects building throughout the month. However, as the situation is still evolving, it remains unclear how these dynamics will be reflected in the data. Some analysts expect the ECB to begin raising rates later this year, but it is still too early to draw firm conclusions. In Canada, the consensus for GDP m/m is 0.0%, compared with 0.2% previously. Following modest growth in December, the Canadian economy appears to have lost some momentum. This slowdown is largely due to temporary disruptions in the auto sector and weaker housing-related activity, partly driven by severe weather. However, strong energy output and resilient consumer spending have helped cushion the impact. RBC analysts note that early data points to a partial rebound in February, as auto production normalizes and consumer spending remains firm. Manufacturing and wholesale activity are also showing signs of recovery, although housing is likely to remain subdued. Overall, Q1 growth is still expected to be modest, with improvements in February and March offsetting the weak start to the year. On the external side, Canada’s trade deficit is projected to narrow, supported by recovering auto exports and higher oil prices, with further improvement likely if energy markets remain elevated. From a monetary policy perspective, the BoC’s upcoming summary of its March decision is expected to reinforce a broadly balanced stance, suggesting that the current policy rate is appropriately set while officials monitor incoming data. However, the details may provide further insight into how concerned policymakers are about renewed inflation pressures, particularly from higher energy costs. The consensus for U.S. retail sales m/m is 0.4% versus -0.2% previously, while core retail sales m/m are expected to print 0.3% vs. 0.0%. The main driver of this week’s data is likely to be strong auto purchases in February, although the broader outlook remains less encouraging. Elevated energy costs are expected to weigh on consumers’ disposable income, potentially limiting spending on non-essential goods despite the boost from vehicle sales. In the U.S., the consensus for average hourly earnings m/m is 0.3% vs. 0.4% previously. Non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 56K, following a -92K print, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Recent indicators suggest some softening in hiring after February’s downside surprise, which was partly driven by weather-related disruptions. While the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady, there is a risk it could edge up to 4.5%. A weaker-than-expected report could prompt markets to reassess expectations for future Fed rate cuts, which have already been largely priced out amid the conflict in Iran. Given the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment, policymakers are likely to view any short-term spike in energy prices as temporary, rather than as a signal for significant policy adjustments. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, the main highlight will be the German inflation data. We will get first the German states figures which generally give clues on the national CPI data. The national CPI is essentially a weighted average of the states. Having said that, inflation is expected to increase substantially in March due to elevated energy prices, so it's not going to be a surprise at all. The ECB will likely look through the March inflation spike but might also lay the groundwork for a rate hike in June if the US-Iran war and the supply disruptions continue. The market is pricing a 55% chance of a rate hike in April and 86% in June. The total tightening expected by year-end is 72 bps.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the main highlight is Fed Chair Powell's speech. He's unlikely to deviate much from the last FOMC press conference though. We have already gotten some meaningful tightening in financial conditions, which could slow or even avoid second round effects, so there's no need for him to do anything just yet.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS14:30 GMT/10:30 ET - Fed Chair Powell (neutral - voter)20:00 GMT/16:00 ET - Fed's Williams (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

This will be quite the anticipated report to watch in the session ahead. Prior to the US-Iran conflict, German inflation was already the key sticking point for the ECB in preventing the central bank from pursuing further rate cuts. Price pressures in Europe's largest economy have been stubborn and showed little signs of waning upon the turn of the year.So when you factor in the Middle East developments in the past month, everything is turning up bad again. German manufacturing had been on the recovery path upon the turn of the year. And that has helped to alleviate some pressures on the economy for a while now.But with prices set to hit harder there amid surging input cost inflation, that will be a key challenge for the manufacturing sector in the months ahead. That especially if higher energy prices become more entrenched as the Middle East conflict stretches on.And therein lies the risk for inflation in Germany as well. Core annual inflation was seen at 2.5% in February, with services inflation being the main reason for the stickier reading. The latter was seen at 3.2% last month.This time around, headline inflation is likely to see a standout jump as higher energy prices strike first. The war may have been only going on for a month, but the impact will be evident when we see the German price figures later.Of note, headline annual inflation is expected to climb to 2.7% in March - up from 1.9% in February. If met, that will be the highest reading since January 2024. The monthly inflation figure is expected to surge by 1.1%, which will be the highest since September 2022.I wouldn't expect surging prices to hit core inflation just yet. It will take time to filter through but the longer the US-Iran conflict lasts, the odds of that happening are much higher.Here's the agenda for today:0800 GMT - North Rhine Westphalia0800 GMT - Hesse0800 GMT - Bavaria0800 GMT - Baden Wuerttemberg0800 GMT - Saxony1200 GMT - Germany national preliminary figuresDo note that the releases don't exactly follow the schedule at times and may be released a little earlier or later. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1550 level. It's a modest-sized one but not likely to feature much into play. The expiries do sit near the confluence of the key hourly moving averages, seen at 1.1548-57 currently. So, that could add another layer in terms of limiting any upside extensions to price action in the session ahead.The dollar is keeping steadier to start the new week though the risk mood is also calmer after the heavy selloff on Friday. The US-Iran conflict and accompanying headlines remain the key driver of trading sentiment. So, that overrides everything else including the potential impact for any expiries still.In terms of data releases, there won't be much in Europe to shake things up today with only the German CPI figures to work with. That might offer some interest considering that we could start to see some impact of higher energy prices on March data, at least the early signs.Besides all of that, month-end and quarter-end flows will also be a consideration. So, keep that in mind especially as we gear towards the London fix over the next two days.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.