Diverging signals from Richmond and Cleveland Fed presidents this week underline how unsettled the September rate path remains, with markets currently pricing roughly a one third chance of a hike, down from about half earlier in the week after softer producer price data. Oil traders are increasingly decoupling price from the Hormuz conflict itself, with Brent and WTI both falling more than two percent even as vessel transits through the strait sit near three month lows, a signal that demand destruction and rising non Gulf supply are now doing more to set price than the headline geopolitical risk. In FX, the yen's drift back toward 160 despite a coordinated US/ Japan Ministry of Finance intervention two weeks ago suggests that verbal and even physical intervention is losing its grip on the pair, leaving the September Bank of Japan meeting as the more credible lever. Equities remain the outlier, with the S&P 500 pushing to fresh records as investors largely shrug off both the rate uncertainty and the energy backdrop.--- The Fed is genuinely divided on whether more tightening is needed, and that uncertainty is now the single biggest swing factor across oil, FX and equities heading into September.Summary:Oil fell more than two percent Thursday, Brent to 87.07 dollars and WTI to 81.25 dollars, even as Hormuz vessel traffic dropped to a one week low of eight ships against a pre war average of around 130The IEA cut its 2026 global oil demand forecast, citing high prices and shortages, while traders point to Chinese stockpile drawdowns and rising US output as reasons oil is decoupling from war riskEarlier this week Trump claimed the US has total control of the Strait of Hormuz and said he intends to keep it, a claim Iran's military and the Persian Gulf Strait Authority rejected outrightUSD JPY climbed back to around 159.5, largely reversing the gains from the coordinated BOJ and MOF intervention two weeks earlier, with the September 17 to 18 BOJ meeting now the key date (Goldman Sachs says weak US data or a BOJ miss could trigger new yen intervention )Thursday's flat PPI reading eased September rate hike odds to around 35 percent from roughly 50 percent, helping push the S&P 500 to a record close of 7798.99Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin said it remains an open question whether a hike is needed at all, while Cleveland Fed president and FOMC voter Beth Hammack said she lacks confidence inflation will keep cooling without further tighteningThe Federal Reserve's internal debate over whether to raise interest rates again came into sharper focus on Thursday, as two regional presidents offered notably different reads on the same inflation data, even as financial markets pushed in the opposite direction on rate hike expectations.Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin, speaking (and further from him, here)to the Greenville Chamber of Commerce, argued that the case for another hike is far from settled. He said the question was not whether inflation would return to the Fed's two percent target, since the FOMC has made clear it is committed to that outcome, but how it gets there, and whether the Fed will actually need to raise rates or whether inflation is already on a path down to target on its own. Barkin pointed to tariffs, elevated oil prices and surging demand tied to the artificial intelligence buildout as shocks he expects to fade over time, arguing that if those pressures do ease, the current level of interest rates may already be restrictive enough to bring inflation down without further tightening. Barkin does not hold a vote on the FOMC this year, but as with all twelve regional presidents, he attends every meeting and takes part in the discussion that shapes the eventual decision, making his comments a useful read on the committee's centre of gravity even though he cannot swing the head count. Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack, who does vote this year and already dissented in favour of a hike at the July meeting, struck a more urgent tone. She said she was pleased to see recent inflation readings come in lower, but did not have confidence that trend would continue or that it would bring inflation back down to the two percent target. Earlier in the week she had argued that a single quarter point move would likely do little on its own, suggesting some unspecified number of hikes would be needed, while declining to commit to an end point. Hammack sits alongside Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan as the three voters who pushed for tightening in July, a bloc that continues to pull against the more cautious centre of the committee that Barkin appears to represent. The split lands at a moment when broader market pricing is actually drifting the other way. A flat July producer price reading on Thursday, following an in line consumer price report a day earlier, pushed the market implied odds of a September hike down to around 35 percent from close to 50 percent earlier in the week, with two year Treasury yields easing six basis points in response. Equities have taken the softer data as a green light, with the S&P 500 closing at a record 7798.99 on Thursday, its first close above 7800, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 also pushed to fresh highs.The same divide is playing out beyond Fed commentary. Oil fell sharply Thursday even as the Strait of Hormuz conflict shows no sign of resolution, with vessel traffic through the waterway near three month lows and the International Energy Agency cutting its 2026 demand forecast. In currency markets, the yen's slide back toward 160 against the dollar despite a coordinated intervention two weeks ago points to the same underlying theme running through oil, FX and now Fed policy: reflexive risk narratives are losing their grip, and the incoming data, whether inflation prints or BOJ decisions, is doing more of the work than headline events. With the Fed's next meeting in mid September and the BOJ deciding days apart on the seventeenth and eighteenth, both central banks are converging on the same window as the moment that finally forces clarity. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ADNOC, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, is the UAE's state owned energy giant, spanning upstream production, gas, refining, petrochemicals and shipping through listed subsidiaries like ADNOC Gas and ADNOC Drilling. Its Murban crude is a key Gulf benchmark. Group CEO Sultan Al Jaber also serves as the UAE's Industry Minister.Says 2 vessels attacked.Yesterday: UAE-Iran asset transfer reported This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US July PPI 4.7% y/y vs 4.9% expectedUS initial claims for the current week 209K vs 202K estimateFed's Barkin: Still an open question on whether the FOMC needs to hike ratesFed's Hammack: Need some restraint from mon pol to bring down inflationFed's Barkin: It's hard to know whether policy is restrictive given standard errors in modelsUS 30 year average mortgage rate averages 6.67% vs 6.69% last week.US treasury sells 30 year bonds at a high yield of 5.216%Markets:WTI crude oil down $2.05 to $81.21US 10-year yields down 4.3 bps to 4.64%Gold down $58 to $4348S&P 500 up 0.65%, touches intraday recordEUR leads, CHF lagsIt was a dull day in FX but lively elsewhere. The oil market was a strange one and made even stranger beacuse oil companies didn't follow the price of crude lower. Virtually all the headlines have been about attacks in the oil chokepoints in the Middle East and crude fell notably. That left the lingering feeling that someone knows something.Treasury yields declined and that could have been oil related but it also could have been on a lower PPI, helping the inflation picture. The Fed's Barkin sounded reluctant to hike, though certainly not close-minded. Gold was also lower, perhaps on profit taking or in response to lower signs of inflation -- though it didn't respond to cooling CPI or non-farm payrolls data earlier this month.Call it a sign of the summer doldrums.Meanwhile, there are no days off for the degens, as Sandisk shares paced US markets with a 14% gain. Intel, Fedex, Netflix, and Meta were among the other -- much smaller -- winners. Cisco shares fell 8% on 'conservative' revenue guidance (though it was higher than the consensus). Workday was another notable gainer on takeover rumors. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The calendar lists Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock as speaking today. I have not seen this listed on the RBA website. This is an appearance in Parliament, before the committee on Economics. This is routine parliamentary scrutiny following the RBA's August monetary policy decision (cash rate hold at 4.35% earlier this week).We had this yesterday:Recap: RBA's Kent: policy is restrictive and working, but risks still skew higher This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

High yield 5.216%WI level at the time of the auction 5.212%Tail 0.4 basis points vs average of -0.2 basis pointsBid to cover 2.39X vs average of 2.43XDirects 21.6% vs average of 22.5%Indirects 66.8% vs average of 67.0%Dealers 11.6% vs average of 10.6%Auction Grade: C-The Tail was above the WI level. The bid to cover was just below the average. The Dealers were saddled with more than the average as a result of slightly less than average demand from the directs (domestic) and indirects (international) buyers.  This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF remains locked in a broader range that has contained most of the price action between 0.8029 and 0.8151. There have been brief moves outside those extremes, but neither buyers nor sellers have been able to generate enough momentum to establish a sustained break.Near the middle of that range sit two important technical levels: the 100-hour moving average at 0.8107 and the 200-hour moving average at 0.8101. In trading today, the price has remained above both moving averages, with the session low reaching 0.8113 before buyers stepped back in and pushed the pair higher.On the topside, the rebound carried USDCHF into a swing area between 0.8138 and 0.8151, with today's high reaching 0.8145. That keeps the pair below the upper end of the broader range and leaves buyers with more work to do.So, for now, the technical battle lines are well defined. The 100- and 200-hour moving averages provide close support, while the 0.8138-0.8151 swing area provides close resistance.Ultimately, if buyers are going to take firmer control, they need to get and stay above 0.8151. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and have traders looking toward the July swing highs near 0.8206.Conversely, a move back below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages at 0.8107 and 0.8101 would tilt the short-term bias back to the downside. That would put the 0.8060-0.8070 swing area back in play, followed by the lower end of the broader range near 0.8030.For now, the bias remains modestly in favor of the buyers because the price continues to hold above the key hourly moving averages. However, a break above 0.8151 is still needed to give the buyers greater control and open the door toward 0.8206. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The average 30 year fixed rate mortgage fell to 6.67% from 6.69% last week.   A year ago the 30 year yield was at 6.58%.Mortgage rates aren't set directly by the Fed; they are driven primarily by mortgage-backed securities, which tend to move with longer-term Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year. The 10 year yield last Thurday was at 4.676%. The current 10 year is at 4.643% but is down from a high close from Monday near 4.71%.  With yesterday's CPI followed by today's softer-than-expected PPI, inflation pressure looks somewhat less threatening. Treasury yields have moved lower. If that bond-market rally holds, it creates an opportunity for 30-year mortgage rates to move lower from the current 6.67% level.For perspective, rates briefly fell below 6% earlier this year—Freddie Mac noted a 5.98% low during Q1—before moving back above 6%. The low 10 year yield for the year reached 3.93%. With the current 10 year yield at 4.64%, that is up 71 basis points. The comparable 30 year mortgage is up 69 basis points.  So I'd characterize the current situation as: mortgage rates are still high historically. The next question is whether the bond rally has enough staying power to push mortgage rates toward 6.5% and eventually closer to 6%.The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.96%, down from last week when it averaged 6.01%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.71%. Meawhile, the average gas price in the US is up to $4.07.  A month ago it was $3.87 and a year ago $3.15.   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

European shares are closing lower on the day, failing to follow the mostly positive tone in U.S. equities. The declines come despite the softer-than-expected U.S. PPI data, which showed headline producer prices unchanged in July versus a 0.2% increase expected, while the year-on-year rate slowed to 4.7% from 5.5%. The major European indices are ending the session with declines across the board:German DAX: 26,292.01, -0.15%France CAC 40: 8,650.57, -0.28%UK FTSE 100: 10,772.68, -0.56%Spain's Ibex: 20,168.60, -0.18%Italy's FTSE MIB: 53,668.60, -0.18%The FTSE 100 was the weakest of the major indices, with weakness in mining shares contributing to the decline.In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are lower across the board, helped in part by the decline in oil prices:Germany: 3.134%, -3.4 basis pointsFrance: 3.947%, -4.1 basis pointsUK: 4.957%, -2.0 basis pointsSpain: 3.568%, -3.9 basis pointsItaly: 3.899%, -4.6 basis pointsCrude oil remains lower on the day, although it has recovered sharply from its session low. WTI fell to $80.09, breaking below its 100-hour moving average at $81.45, but sellers could not sustain the downside momentum. The price has since snapped back higher and is trading around $82.56, down $0.65 on the day. Oil has been under pressure as demand concerns offset ongoing geopolitical supply risks.As London/European traders head for the exits, U.S. stocks are mixed but tilted to the upside, with the Dow the lone major index trading lower:Dow Industrial Average: 53,674.36, -0.19%S&P 500: 7,777.26, +0.37%Nasdaq Composite: 26,712.35, +0.47%Russell 2000: 3,048.22, +0.09%Nasdaq 100: 30,003.72, +0.88%The Nasdaq 100 is leading the gains and has pushed above the 30,000 level, while the S&P is also solidly higher following the softer PPI report. The S&P is on pace for a record close.  U.S. Treasury yields are also moving lower across the curve:2-year: 4.147%, -5.2 basis points5-year: 4.320%, -5.5 basis points10-year: 4.643%, -4.9 basis points30-year: 5.212%, -3.6 basis pointsOverall, European traders are leaving behind a session characterized by lower European equities, falling global yields and weaker oil, while U.S. equities are taking a more positive view of the softer inflation data, particularly in the S&P and Nasdaq. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sandisk is having it's investor day and the traders are liking what they hear.  The company has used its 2026 Investor Day to highlight its long-term growth opportunity from AI and, more importantly for investors, lay out an aggressive financial framework for FY2028 through FY2030.On the product side, Sandisk expects AI inference to significantly increase demand for flash storage in data centers, with the "enterprise data-center flash market potentially reaching 1.2 zettabytes by 2030". The company is "developing higher-density NAND and High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) technology to capture that growth". Sandisk is also moving toward longer-term customer agreements designed to provide greater revenue visibility and reduce the traditional volatility of the NAND business. Those agreements already cover about 50% of expected FY2027 bits and roughly two-thirds of FY2028 bits.For the stock, the financial targets are the key takeaway. For FY2028-FY2030, Sandisk expects:Mid-to-high teens revenue growth~80% non-GAAP gross margins (high)~75% non-GAAP operating margins Operating expenses of approximately 5% of revenue (low)~50% adjusted free-cash-flow margins100% of excess cash returned to shareholders after funding investment in the business The financial outlook is particularly bullish if Sandisk can deliver it. The combination of mid-to-high teens growth, 75% operating margins and 50% free-cash-flow margins would represent an exceptionally profitable model, while the commitment to return excess cash provides an additional potential catalyst for shareholders.Looking at the chart, the stock is up around 15% on the day, after trading in a wide range between $1,331.58 and $1,580.00.From a technical perspective, the most important development is the move back above the 100-day moving average at $1,389.04. Staying above that moving average is paramount for the buyers. Since July 24, the price has moved below the 100-day moving average on three separate occasions, and each break led to increased downside momentum. With the price now back above the level, buyers have regained more control, but they will not want to see the stock slip back below it.For closer risk, traders can look toward the 200-hour moving average at $1,460.14. Staying above that level would keep the short-term technical bias tilted more firmly in favor of the buyers.On the topside, the next major target comes near $1,679.08, which represents the 50% retracement of the decline from the June 22 all-time high. That level is also near swing highs going back to July 23, increasing its technical importance. A move above — and importantly, the ability to stay above — $1,679.08 would be another bullish technical development and open the door for further upside momentum.So, the technical roadmap is becoming clearer: $1,460.14 is close risk, $1,389.04 is the key longer-term support, and $1,679.08 is the next major upside target.In the video above, I take a closer look at the technical levels driving today's sharp move and outline the key risks and targets traders should be watching going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The more headline inflation continues to slow, that will help expectationsTorn between the fact that inflation has been above target for more than 5 years versus focusing on the fact that it jumped in two separate episodes and is now slowingBusinesses generally don't like to do layoffs and would prefer to avoid it, even if they are cautious about hiringFed is not in a forward-guidance place right nowDo not think the labor market is as strong as data indicate, consider it vulnerableBusinesses that sell to busienss are confident in pricing power, businesses that sell to consuemrs are less sure they can pass along costsAI use cases do not seem mature enough yet to lead to large reductions in head countBarkin doesn't have much conviction and generally that leads to keeping policy unchanged. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD moved lower yesterday after the post-CPI run to new highs going back to June 5 stalled and reversed into the close.  The selling pressure carried into today’s session as the pair broke below both the 100-hour moving average at 0.70598 and the 100-day moving average at 0.7055. Sellers then pushed down toward the 200-hour moving average at 0.7045. Although the price briefly traded below that level by a pip, the break could not be sustained, and the pair quickly rebounded.More recently, the broader risk-on environment has provided some support for the Australian dollar. US equities are moving higher, with the Nasdaq up 1.03%, the Nasdaq 100 up 1.35%, and the S&P index trading at a new record high. At the same time, Treasury yields are moving sharply lower, with the 2-year yield down 6.7 basis points and the 10-year yield down 7.1 basis points. That combination has helped fuel renewed buying in the AUDUSD.Technically, the rebound has taken the price back above the key 100-day moving average at 0.7055 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.70598. That shifts the short-term technical picture back in the buyers' favor. The 100-day moving average at 0.7055 now becomes a key close-risk level for buyers. Staying above it keeps the buyers in play; a move back below would weaken the rebound and bring the 200-hour moving average at 0.7045 back into focus.Buyers are making a play. Can they keep the momentum going?On the topside, the next target comes at the 50% retracement of the move down from the May high at 0.70707. A break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward the swing highs from this week, culminating with yesterday’s high at 0.7091.For now, the failed break below the 200-hour moving average and the subsequent recovery above the 100-day and 100-hour moving averages have given buyers the advantage. The challenge is now to stay above those reclaimed technical levels and extend the move through 0.70707. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Any time there is a sudden move in the oil market, the collective reaction of traders is to say: Something is happening in the Middle East that we don't know about.In terms of what is reported, Houthie rebels hit a ship today and killed six sailors while the US struck the engine room of a ship on the way to Iran yesterday with Hellfire missiles. Iran was onthe wires a short time ago saying it controls the Strait of Hormuz and Trump was out with all kinds of rhetoric this week saying the US controls it.So there's no good news there and all the public data continues to show shipping in the region is way down. So where does the $3 per barrel drop come from? It's a mystery but it's reverberating into other markets with US yields down 7-8 bps across the curve and the S&P 500 hitting an intraday record (up 0.8% today). This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The price of crude oil futures has moved lower, with sellers gaining momentum after the price broke below its 100-hour moving average at $81.39.The move lower follows repeated failures earlier this week to sustain gains above the 50% retracement of the decline from the late-July high to the early-August low. That retracement comes in at $83.87 and has proven to be a key resistance level. The price reached $84.54 on Tuesday and $84.35 yesterday, but buyers could not extend the move higher.More importantly, after crude initially moved lower yesterday, the subsequent rebound stalled near the $83.87 retracement level. That failure gave sellers the go-ahead to push the price back to the downside, and the bearish momentum has continued into today's trading.The latest technical development is the break below the 100-hour moving average at $81.39. Staying below that moving average keeps the sellers firmly in control and shifts the focus toward the 200-hour moving average at $79.47. That represents the next key downside target.A break below the 200-hour moving average would increase the bearish bias further and open the door for additional selling, with the 200-day moving average at $76.66 becoming a more important longer-term target.There does not appear to be a specific headline catalyst driving today's decline. Instead, the move has been technically driven: buyers had their shots above the 50% retracement earlier this week and could not sustain the break. The subsequent failure at that level, followed by today's move below the 100-hour moving average, has shifted the technical advantage more firmly in favor of the sellers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD moved lower yesterday, with sellers able to push the pair below its 100-day moving average, currently at 1.39186. That break gave sellers an opportunity to take greater control from a longer-term technical perspective. However, the downside momentum could not be sustained. The price quickly snapped back higher and moved into the close toward its falling 100-hour moving average and a key swing area between 1.3948 and 1.3966.In trading today, buyers made another attempt to wrestle back some control. The price moved above the falling 100-hour moving average and extended into the 1.3948 to 1.3966 swing area. However, that push ultimately failed. Sellers leaned against the resistance zone, stalled the advance, and turned the price back to the downside.In early North American trading, the USDCAD has now moved back below the falling 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.39383. That shifts the short-term technical bias more firmly in favor of the sellers and puts the focus once again on the 100-day moving average at 1.39186.That 100-day moving average remains the key technical hurdle for sellers. Yesterday, they were able to break below it, but they could not keep the price there. As a result, getting below the level is not enough. Sellers need to get and stay below the 100-day moving average to increase the bearish conviction and open the door for another leg to the downside.If that can be accomplished, the next targets would come near the 1.3900 natural support level and the 50% midpoint of the broader move. Getting below those levels would further strengthen the bearish technical picture and give sellers even more control.For now, the sellers are holding the strongest hand. They defended the 1.3948–1.3966 swing area, pushed the price back below the falling 100-hour moving average, and have the 100-day moving average back in their sights. However, to play that hand with greater confidence, they still need to break and stay below 1.39186. Do that, and the door opens for a move through 1.3900 and potentially toward lower targets. Fail again at the 100-day moving average, and buyers may once again be encouraged to step back in.The July U.S. PPI report came in softer than expected, adding to the evidence that inflation pressures cooled during the month. Headline PPI was unchanged at 0.0% month-over-month, below expectations for a 0.2% increase. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices rose 4.7%, below the 4.9% forecast and down sharply from 5.5% in June. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% month-over-month, slightly below the 0.3% estimate. The annual core rate came in at 4.2%, matching expectations but slowing from 4.7% previously. Goods prices fell 0.7% during July, while services prices increased 0.2%. The takeaway: Combined with yesterday's relatively benign CPI report, the softer PPI provides another piece of evidence pointing toward a more moderate July PCE inflation reading later this month. That is important because components of both CPI and PPI feed into the Fed's preferred PCE inflation measure. The initial market reaction was modestly negative for the U.S. dollar as the report reduces some of the pressure on the Fed to tighten policy at the September meeting. The expection for a September hike is down to 32.4%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Hammack voted to hike rates at the most recent meeting alongside Kashkari and Logan.Businesses have adapted to tariff and oil shocks, there's resilience and investmentRaising rates can be painful but most not let growth and investment be so fast the economy overheatsInflation is broad-based and not just in certain sectorsPayroll data is noisyInflation from supply shocks has proved more persistent This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Still an open question on whether Fed needs to hike or if inflation is already on a path lowerThere are reasons to think price pressures are embedded, with either weakening demand or a rate hike neededThere are strong arguments that inflation will ease, given modest wage pressure and tariff, oil and other shocks likely to subsideEmployment continues to keep up household spending while those who own homes or equities have enjoyed remarkable wealth increaseAspects of US economy remain a mystery as consumers and overall activity defy shocksDoes not say if he thinks rates will need to rise but notes that "many" at the Fed feel current level is restrictive enough to bring inflation downBarkin is a good barometer for the Fed so I take these comments very seriously and it sounds to me like there's an emerging to consensus to hold rates rather than to cut. Of course that can change with another month of data or some other shock. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior week Initial claims 199K revised to 200KInitial claims 209K vs 202K estimate4 week MA of initial claims 199K vs 199K prev.Continuing claims 1.777M vs 1.800M.  Prior 1.799M4 week MA of continuing claims 1.785M vs 1.791M last week. Looking at the trend the initial claims remains int he range indicative of a steady jobs market. No hire. No fire, continues to be the trend.  These numbers reflect that dynamic. Versus a year ago:Initial claims 209K vs 224K last yearContinuing claims are lower at 1.777M vs 1.942M last year.  Overall that is more positive from that perspective.   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 5.5%PPI m/m 0.0% vs +0.2% expPPI ex-food and energy +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expPPI ex-food and energy +4.2% y/y vs 4.2% expPrior ex-food and energy +4.7%This is more evidence for a softer PCE inflation report later in the month and is a negative for the US dollar, which is down modestly on the headlines. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The U.S. dollar is starting the session modestly lower overall, although the moves remain relatively contained. The dollar is lower versus the euro, with EURUSD pair up 0.1% (lower USD), and slightly lower against the British pound, with GBPUSD up 0.01%. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar is also lower, with USDJPY pair down about 0.08%.In the Kickstart video, I take a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, focusing on the three things every trader needs to know before putting on a trade: the bias, the risk and the targets. Where do the buyers have control? Where do the sellers have control? What levels would shift that bias, and where are the targets if momentum starts to build?In the U.S. debt market, Treasury yields are lower across the curve and supportive of the greenbacks decline but ahead of today's data:2-year: 4.180%, -1.9 bps5-year: 4.353%, -2.2 bps10-year: 4.674%, -1.8 bps30-year: 5.239%, -0.8 bpThe curve remains upward sloping from the 2-year through the 30-year, while today's decline in yields is somewhat larger at the front and middle of the curve.U.S. stock futures are also pointing to a modestly higher opening:Dow: +141 pointsS&P 500: +6.25 pointsNasdaq 100: +2.9 pointsThe economic calendar will be a major focus at 8:30 AM ET, led by July PPI and weekly jobless claims. Headline PPI is expected to rise 0.2% month over month, following a 0.3% decline previously, while the year-over-year rate is expected to ease to 4.9% from 5.5%. Core PPI is expected at +0.3% month over month, compared with +0.2% previously. Initial jobless claims are expected at 202K versus 199K last week.Remember yesterday, U.S. CPI came in largely in line with expectations, with headline CPI rising 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 2.5% from a year ago. Shelter accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase, helping ease some concerns about broader inflation pressures.That puts added importance on today's PPI report. The combination of the CPI and PPI data will give economists most of the pieces they need to construct estimates for the forthcoming PCE inflation report, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Following yesterday's CPI release, early estimates for monthly core PCE were running in a fairly wide range of roughly +0.16% to +0.23%. Today's PPI details—particularly the components that feed directly into PCE—should help narrow that range and give markets a clearer picture of the underlying inflation trend ahead of the next Fed decision. The current expectations from the market is a 40% chance for a tightening in September. That is down from 62% a week or so ago (before the US jobs data). Overnight in Europe, expectations for another ECB tightening are building. A Reuters poll shows 83% of economists expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% in September, with most expecting rates to remain there through year-end.Other overnight data also included updates from the UK, New Zealand and Japan. The UK economy expanded 0.4% in Q2, matching expectations but slowing from 0.6% in Q1. Growth was led by a 0.5% increase in services, while construction rose 0.3% and production was flat. GDP was 1.2% higher from a year ago, with the report unlikely to materially alter the Bank of England outlook.In New Zealand, the RBNZ's inflation expectations survey showed a notable cooling in price expectations. One-year inflation expectations fell to 2.6% from 3.4%, while the two-year measure eased to 2.3% from 2.5%. The softer readings have trimmed expectations at the margin for an RBNZ rate hike in September and helped keep pressure on the New Zealand dollar.Meanwhile, Japan's producer inflation remains elevated despite coming in below expectations. July PPI rose 7.2% year over year versus 7.4% expected, while prices increased just 0.1% on the month versus 0.6% expected. The bigger concern for the BOJ remains imported inflation, with yen-based import prices up 29.1% from a year ago. With the yen remaining weak and import costs elevated, the report does little to eliminate the possibility of a BOJ rate hike in September.With inflation data and yields still driving expectations for central banks, today's PPI and claims data have the potential to shake up the early market picture. For traders, however, the roadmap remains the same: know the bias, define the risk and identify the targets. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:It's on to Jackson Hole next..Dollar stays more muted so far today amid lack of any post-CPI momentumGold fails to find that additional spark from US inflation dataUK Q2 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q expectedUK economy posts unexpected growth in June on stronger services sector showingSpain inflation nudges higher in July as both headline and core prices push upMarkets:WTI crude oil down 2% to $81.58CHF leads, NZD lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%Gold down 0.4% to $4,388US 10-year yields down 1.7 bps to 4.675%Bitcoin down 0.2% to $63,387The US CPI report for July was rather benign and that's not giving market players all too much to work with as we get into the second half of the week.The dollar recoverd from overnight lows late yesterday before trading rather sideways in European morning trade today. EUR/USD is keeping in a narrow range, up just 0.1% to 1.1535. Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains little changed at around 159.20-30 levels for the most part.Looking to geopolitical developments, the US-Iran conflict continues to see little progress in general. As such, the broader market mood remains tentative at best even if oil prices are trading down today. WTI crude is lower by 2% to $81.58 currently. Meanwhile, bond yields are also off the highs with 10-year Treasury yields down 1.7 bps to 4.675% today.Still, it's all not hinting at much besides a bit of a breather in the market mood in awaiting further headlines and developments.Elsewhere, equities remain steady with some modest gains in European stocks while US futures are pushing a little higher on the day. Wall Street was able to keep light gains after the inflation data yesterday and are seen just a little higher today as well - at least for now.Besides that, gold is falling off from its Asia highs and is down 0.4% to $4,388 as buyers continue to try and push for a firmer break above the $4,400 mark this week. But in the absence of a notable spark, we're not quite there yet.It's on to the US weekly jobless claims and PPI data up next. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.