This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “USD/JPY Technical: Mild JPY strength detected ahead of US CPI”, published on 11 September 2025.In the last four weeks, the US dollar has weakened significantly against several major currencies, such as the euro, which rallied to a 4-year peak against the greenback on Tuesday, 16 September, but the bearish momentum of the US dollar has lagged against the Japanese yen (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: 1-month rolling performance of the US dollar against other major currencies as of 17 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) The USD/JPY has declined as expected within its range configuration and hit the minor range support of 146.40 (printed an intraday low of 146.20 on Wednesday, 17 September 2025, Asia session).Based on a one-month rolling performance basis as of 17 September 2025, the USD/JPY has dropped by -0.6%, less than the decline seen in the US Dollar Index at -1.1% over the same period at the time of writing.Interestingly, the momentum factor (technical analysis) is suggesting that the fortune of JPY is about to see a regime change, as the FOMC monetary policy decision outcome, the release of the latest Fed economic projections, and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference loom today.Let’s break down the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical levels to watch on the USD/JPY Fig. 2: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 17 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 17 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain a bearish bias in any bounces below the adjusted short-term pivotal resistance at 147.50 for the USD/JPY. A break below 145.95 (key range support) triggers the start of a potential medium-term bearish impulsive down move sequence for the next intermediate support to come in at 145.20 (also a Fibonacci extension) in the first step (see Fig. 3).Key elements The price actions of the USD/JPY have been oscillating within a medium-term “Ascending Wedge” range configuration since 22 April 2025 low. Right now, it is hovering just above the lower boundary of the “Ascending Wedge,” acting as a key medium-term support of 145.95 (see Fig. 2).The daily RSI momentum indicator has continued to inch downwards since the bearish breakdown of its former parallel ascending support on 22 August 2025, which suggests that medium-term bearish momentum remains intact, supporting a potential imminent bearish breakdown of the 145.95 support on the USD/JPY (see Fig. 2).Recent price actions of the USD/JPY have traded below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the 20-day moving average acting as a key short-term resistance at 147.50.The hourly RSI momentum indicator did not flash out a bearish divergence signal before it exited from its oversold region yesterday, 16 September 2025, which suggests the USD/JPY may shape a minor corrective bounce in the next few hours rather than a bullish reversal.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above 147.50 invalidates the bearish scenario for the USD/JPY and sees a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 147.95. Above it triggers a further bounce towards the minor range resistance at 148.75/148.95 (also the 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The British pound is unchanged on Wednesday, trading at 1.3645 in the European sesison.UK inflation remains entrenchedToday's inflation report was a dour reminder that UK inflation remains entrenched. CPI for August was unchanged at 3.8% y/y, matching the consensus and its highest level since January 2024. Airfares decreased but this was offset by food and petrol prices. Monthly, CPI rose 0.3%, up from 0.1% in July and matching the consensus.Core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, eased to 3.6% from 3.8%. Monthly, core CPI ticked up to 0.3% from 0.2%. The inflation report comes just a day before the Bank of England announces its rate decision. Inflation is almost double the BoE's target of 2% and today's release likely means that the BoE will not reduce rates before 2026. The BoE cut rates by a quarter-point in August to 4.0% but will be hard pressed to follow up with additional cuts due unless inflation falls lower.The inflation data is bad news for Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. Food inflation has risen for five consecutive months and that will put consumers in a sour mood. Reeves will deliver a budget in November and may have to raise taxes to balance the books, which is sure to be an unpopular move.Fed widely expected to lower ratesThe Federal Reserve is virtually certain to lower rates at today's meeting. That would be a significant move as the Fed last cut rates in December 2024. With the rate decision virtually a given, investors will be looking for some clues as to whether the Fed is looking at further rates cuts before the end of the year.GBP/USD Technical GBPUSD is testing support at 1.3643. This is followed by support at 1.3638 and 1.36341.3647 and 1.3652 are the next resistance lines GBPUSD 1-Day Chart, September 17, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares Take a Breath After Record Rally Most Read: Fed (FOMC) Meeting Preview: 25 bps Cut Appears Baked In, Forward Guidance Is Key. Implications for the DXY, Dow Jones and S&P 500Asian stocks had a mixed day, moving between small gains and losses. This happened as investors waited for the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, with many expecting the central bank to cut interest rates for the first time this year.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index initially fell but then recovered to gain 0.1%. In Hong Kong, Chinese technology stocks soared to their highest level in four years, driven by growing excitement and demand related to artificial intelligence. On Wednesday, China's main stock indexes ended the day higher. The blue-chip CSI300 Index rose by 0.6%, and the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also did well, climbing 1.8%.Technology companies listed in Hong Kong saw a big jump of 4.2%, following a rally in their U.S. counterparts. Baidu's shares surged by almost 16% to their highest price since October 2023. Alibaba's shares also went up by 5%, reaching their strongest point since November 2022.However, stocks of companies related to consumer spending didn't react much, even after China announced new measures on Tuesday to boost spending on services.UK Inflation Remains Sticky, Holds at 3.8% Based on official figures, British inflation stayed at 3.8% in August, which is the highest rate among major developed economies. Source: ONS This high number suggests to investors that the Bank of England is unlikely to cut interest rates again this year. I however think we could still get another rate cut as wage growth continues to cool and service inflation data has seen some progress. Time will tell.Inflation for transportation slowed down, mostly because airfare prices dropped. Price increases were also lower for services, recreation and culture, and clothing and footwear, while housing and utilities prices stayed steady.However, the prices of motor fuels had the biggest impact, pushing inflation up. Prices for restaurants and hotels, food (reaching its highest level since January 2024), and furniture also increased at a faster rate.On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.3%, which was more than the previous month and matched predictions. On an annual basis, core inflation, which leaves out food and energy costs, slightly decreased from 3.8% to 3.6%.The news from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) did not cause much change in the value of the British pound or in British interest rate futures.European Open - European Shares Edge Higher On Wednesday, European stocks went up slightly, recovering from their losses in the previous session. This happened as investors were waiting for the US Federal Reserve's decision on monetary policy later in the day.The overall European STOXX 600 index rose by 0.1% to 551.56 points, after hitting a one-week low on Tuesday. Technology stocks led the gains, with shares of SAP and Prosus both increasing by about 2%.Later, investors around the world will focus on the results of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting. Markets are largely expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percent to address the weakening US job market. However, investors will be paying especially close attention to what Chairman Jerome Powell says about the future policy plans.In other company news, PostNL's shares rose by 7.5% after the company announced a new strategy, including dividing its Parcels business into two new segments, E-commerce and Platforms, starting in January 2026. Novo Nordisk's shares also increased by 1.8% after the brokerage firm Berenberg upgraded its rating on the Danish drugmaker from "Hold" to "Buy."On the FX front, The euro dropped by 0.25% to 1.1838, after reaching a four-year high of 1.18785 on Tuesday.The British pound fell by 0.13% to 1.3630, which is still close to its highest point in two and a half months, following British inflation data that met expectations. The U.S. dollar index, which compares the dollar to six other major currencies, was up 0.20% at 96.84, after hitting its lowest level since early July on Tuesday.The index is down almost 11% this year, and investors are preparing for more losses after a recent pause. The Swiss franc eased by 0.22% to 0.7875 per US dollar, remaining near the decade-high it reached in the previous session. The Australian dollar hit an 11-month high and was last at 0.6674.The Japanese yen strengthened to 146.22 per dollar, its strongest in a month. This happened ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on Friday, where the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged. The yen was last down 0.10% at 146.63.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices went down slightly on Wednesday, after rising by more than 1% the day before. The ongoing political tensions around the world prevented prices from falling too far. Traders are also keeping a close eye on the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut interest rates later in the day.Brent crude futures dropped by 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.14 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $64.20 per barrel.For more information on Oil, please read WTI Oil Rallies 1% After Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Oil Facilities, Russia Sanction Calls GrowGold prices fell slightly on Wednesday. This was because the US dollar saw a small increase, and investors decided to sell their gold to secure the profits they made after gold reached a record high on Tuesday.Spot gold fell by 0.5% to $3,671.61 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $3,702.95 the day before. US gold futures for December also dropped by 0.4% to $3,709.For more information on Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Soars to Breach $3700/oz. FOMC Meeting Next, Will the Rally Continue?Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session has had a busy morning thus far.Markets attention will now turn to the US session where we will also get the Bank of Canada interest rate decision before the highly anticipated Federal Reserve decision and Fed Chair Powell speech. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE has retreated and broken the bullish structure on the four-hour chart.The four-hour candle close below the swing low at 9240 has seen a change in structure, which hints at further downside.The index is now trading at the bottom end of the range which it broke earlier this week.There is a possibility of a pullback though before the next leg low, with the swing high at 9285 now holding the key.Before that though, resistance is being provided by the 100-day MA at 9236 and 9262 before that 9285 handle comes into focus.Looking at support on the downside, immediate support rests at the 200-day MA at 9203 before the 9180 handle comes into focus.FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 17. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Soars to Breach $3700/oz. FOMC Meeting Next, Will the Rally Continue?The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is a big deal for the US economy and financial markets as a whole.The latest economic data suggests the Fed should start lowering interest rates. However, the market already expects a rate cut and based on market moves it appears that it has largely been priced in.Because of this, the Fed's announcement about their future plans will likely be more important than their actual decision at this meeting. That is likely to be what will really stoke volatility barring a surprise decision by the Fed. Source: CME FedWatch Tool The Macroeconomic Case for a Rate Cut The main concern is the weakening job market. While the economy grew by 3.3% in the second quarter, this was mostly due to a big change in trade, which hid the fact that consumer spending was weak. People were spending less because they were worried about tariffs, a cooling job market, and unstable wealth.This was confirmed by the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which showed little to no economic activity and declining consumer spending across the country. It also reported that most districts were not hiring and that the job market was slowing. Last Friday's jobs report also showed a small increase in jobs, and unemployment went up. Revisions to job numbers from the past year showed the economy created less than half the jobs that were previously reported.Even though inflation is still above the target, the risk to the job market now seems more urgent to the Fed. They'll likely start to move toward a less restrictive policy.Three factors that drove inflation up in 2022—oil prices, housing rents, and wages—are now gone, and are even helping to lower inflation. A cooling economy with rising unemployment will also help bring inflation back down to 2% by the end of 2026.The Fed will probably lower its forecasts for economic growth and inflation while raising its unemployment projections. We expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.25% at their September 17 meeting, with more cuts to follow in October, December, January, and March. It's possible the Fed could start with a larger cut of 0.50%, but a 0.25% cut is more likely because most members are still cautious about the impact of tariffs on inflation.The Fed's Challenge: Reining in Dovish Expectations The Federal Reserve is in a tough spot. Even with evidence pointing to a need for lower interest rates, the market has already bet on a lot of rapid rate cuts. This creates a significant communication challenge for the Fed. They have to manage market expectations very carefully.The "Dovish" SurpriseOne possibility is that the Fed tries to meet or even beat the market's high expectations. Traders are already anticipating a lot of cuts by the end of 2026. For the Fed's announcement to truly be a positive surprise for the market, they would need to signal an even faster pace of rate cuts than what is already expected. If they simply use their normal cautious language, even when announcing a cut, the market might see it as a disappointment. The real risk here isn't a wrong policy decision, but a gap between what the Fed says and what the market wants to hear.The "Powell Pushback"A different view is that Fed Chair Powell will intentionally try to lower market expectations. This perspective suggests that he will push back against the idea of quick rate cuts in October and December. Instead, he would likely emphasize that the Fed will continue to be guided by incoming economic data, keeping their options open.This cautious approach is about protecting the Fed's credibility. Having been criticized for underestimating inflation in the past, they don't want to cut rates too soon only to have to reverse course if inflation spikes again. By remaining patient and focusing on data, Powell would be protecting the Fed's reputation and ensuring they can react to the economy as it unfolds, rather than being forced into a schedule set by the marketProbable Scenarios and Forward Outlook Source: Google Gemini Impact Analysis on US Indices and Broader Markets The market's reaction to the FOMC meeting will translate the two primary scenarios into tangible consequences for US indices and other asset classes.The reaction to a dovish signal would likely be a boon for equities. The S&P 500 would likely rally, driven by the anticipation of lower borrowing costs and a broader "risk-on" sentiment. The Nasdaq 100, composed of technology and growth stocks, would likely outperform due to its higher sensitivity to changes in interest rates.Conversely, a hawkish signal would be a source of disappointment for "doves," potentially triggering a pullback in US indices as traders unwind their aggressive rate-cut bets. Tech and growth stocks would be particularly vulnerable. The following table summarizes the potential impact on key US indices and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) under the two scenarios. Source: Google Gemini Since the market is already highly dovish, the disappointment of a cautious Fed is significant. A potential sell-off might be sharp, but it could also be short-lived if the underlying macroeconomic data remains fundamentally sound. A cautious hold today might simply be a delay of an inevitable cut tomorrow. This understanding is critical for long-term investors aiming to distinguish between temporary market volatility and a fundamental shift in economic trajectory.Tomorrow's meeting promises fireworks regardless of the decision. Volatility will definitely rear its head and the decision could have wider implications for global markets and risk sentiment.For more on tomorrow's meeting and what to look out for, read Guide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchTrade Safe.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 16Trump shook markets today after signing Miran’s papers for him to join the Federal Reserve committee, just hours before the start of the central bank’s 2-day meeting. The Fed's independence is in question here with the move from Donald Trump to appoint his Economic Adviser at the FED just as the meeting commences. The move sent the US Dollar tumbling close to its 2025 lows (96.55 today vs. 96.37 on July 1st), igniting a new wave of selling. Dollar bears came back in force, with the Swiss franc standing out as the preferred hedge against the greenback’s weakness ahead of tomorrow’s session.This breakdown was actually highlighted throughout yesterday's DXY analysis but accelerated as markets received the Miran news.USDCHF is finishing the session down about 1% but was down about 1.20% at its lows. Furthermore, with the SNB's main rate at the border of 0%, in case a jumbo 50 bps cut takes place, the rate differential would decrease and rendering the CHF as an optimal hedge. This play is more fundamental for institutional participants who have billions of dollars that will be affected by tomorrow's decision.Nonetheless, the current market pricing is largely skewed towards a 25 bps. The curve steepened aggressively along the move in the US Dollar, and as can be seen on several of our FX articles, the US Dollar hit now lows on the year against the Euro and the CHF.On other subjects, Trump also announced fresh agreements with China on TikTok which will preview a call between the US President and China's Xi. Read More:Examining US bonds and the yield curve before the FOMC decisionSwiss franc leads majors as US session begins and reclaims 2025 crownGuide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView Softs and energy commodities rallied, boosted again by the US Dollar slump. Concerning only energy commodities, they are getting targeted from bulls due to Russia's menaces to slow down production amid continued (and successful) Ukrainian attacks.Gold and metals had quite a mixed session with the bullion hitting the $3,700 landmark right before retracting in a hesitant afternoon. Traders will get more clarity after the Powell speech.For the rest, cryptos were mixed with BTC up small, some altcoins like OP, BNB and Polkadot leading the charge, while ETH retraced a bit.Equities also offered quite a weird session, with all of them trading to their all-time highs during the futures-only session (pre-open) before retracting as they hit Fibonacci-targets. This is typical of a low volume session but tomorrow should be quite different (and volatile).A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 16 – Source: OANDA Labs As mentioned in the introduction, FX volatility was insane in today's session, particularly for a pre-FOMC day.Traders rushed to hedge their bets with the EUR and CHF which accelerated the move in the Dollar Index which had started in yesterday's session.Tomorrow will be very interesting, particularly in the EURUSD and USDCHF pairs. A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The upcoming 24 hours in trading should offer one of the most intense session in a long while.The evening session will focus on the New Zealand Consumer Survey and the Japanese trade data for August but these will be relatively low-tier data compared to what's coming up tomorrow:The 17th of September session starts at 2:00 A.M. ET with the UK CPI that had previously surprised to the upside, notably pushing back cuts for the BoE (with none planned ahead of Thursday's rate decision). Let's see if tomorrow changes the theme.ECB's Lagarde will then continue her series of speeches at 3:30 A.M. at an annual ECB conference in Frankfurt which will also pre-empt the 5:00 A.M. CPI for the Eurozone.The NA session will then commence with Building Permits and Housing Starts at 8:30 A.M., followed by the Bank of Canada rate decision at 9:45 (a 25 bps cut is planned, but not fully priced) and will attract interest to its 10:30 press conference held by BoC Governor Macklem.The real session will start at 14:00 E.T. with the FOMC rate decision which has been anticipated for too long now. Keep an eye on the SEP's (discover what to focus on here) and most importantly, Jerome Powell's speech at 14:30. Safe Trades and successful trading ahead of the FOMC!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

WTI prices have been erratic, even without a clear direction in the past few weeks.WTI Oil has been moving sideways, gradually decreasing, since early July.Forming an initial range from $65 to $70, then taking steps towards lower levels, August led another consolidation between $62 to $66.With Russia announcing it is close to reduce its oil output due to the heavy (and successful) drone attacks, prices have began an impulsive move higher.Moving towards the final months of the year, headlines still revolve around higher OPEC+ output but also a continuing Ukraine-Russia war (Trump said a few lines on this earlier), which notably shook up yearly flows throughout Ukraine’s efficacious attacks on Black gold, sold at a huge discount to sponsor the Russian aggression.At one point, Russian refinery production was reduced by 1/5, as mentioned in a recent Reuters piece.Despite this heavy supply, supplemental tariffs on russian oil buyers have formed consequent reversals at the recently reached quarterly lows.Friday seemed to provide an initial spike with Trump’s latest tariff headlines (as highlighted in our previous Oil piece) but quickly followed up with a selloff going into the weekend.This week, however, commodities are seeing a huge boost with LME Copper prices hitting new highs, Silver and Gold rallying yet again, and energy commodities seeing a heavy boost. The common denominator, the US Dollar, is getting ravaged, which helps this ongoing rally.Trump's Chief Economist Miran has been signed to join the FED as an intermediate member, right before the FOMC meeting began, which has contributed to further weakness in the USD (= FED Independence challenged), giving a further boost to US Oil prices.Anyway, let's have a close look at Oil charts and levels to see how the current flows are changing the previous narrative. Has a bottom been found for petrol? Read More:Guide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchSwiss franc leads majors as US session begins and reclaims 2025 crownGold (XAU/USD) Soars to Breach $3700/oz. FOMC Meeting Next, Will the Rally Continue?US Oil 1H Chart US Oil 1H Chart, September 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The double bottom mentioned in Friday's analysis has indeed come into play despite the breakout not gaining direct traction (prices first retraced to the lows of the $63 support).However, with the current impulsive move breaking the $63.84 range-high resistance, Oil prices don't have much to stop them before the $65.5 to $66 Pivot region (Blue square).The 1H RSI is not in overbought territory just yet and prices are forming an imminent tight bull channel (bull candles overlapping each other, valid until one bear candle closes below the previous).The current pre-FOMC volatility is rare, so expect tomorrow to be even more volatile, particularly depending on what Jerome Powell says.Let's take a small step back to spot where we are on the bigger picture.WTI Oil 8H Chart After forming a double bottom at the lows of its intraday descending channel, Oil is heading higher on strong bull candles.The two 8H bullish candles formed after yesterday's 1% up-move have helped to breach the 50-period Moving Average.With RSI momentum also going in positive territory, the only hurdle for sellers will be the mid-level of the channel. Such momentum will find it difficult to hold such a line (which tends to act more on indecisive moves).Follow the strong flows from today's session and look at the US Dollar (EURUSD or DXY are two good guides to today's action)Levels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance LevelsHigher timeframe pivot $65 to $66200-period MA 66.42July mid-range $67 resistanceSupport Levels50-period MA $64May range Support $63 to $64 (currently testing)Current consolidation lows $61.84 to $62$60.5 Low of May Range Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices soar to tap $3700/oz as Fed rate cut bets ramp up. The precious metal continues to benefit from the uncertainty around Fed policy moving forward beyond the September 17 meeting.The expectations for a rate cut and a dovish Fed moving forward has led to US Dollar weakness and falling US Treasury yields which have aided Gold's rise. The US dollar is getting weaker, with its value falling against other major currencies.This is because financial markets are now pricing in around 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25% and expect a more dovish outlook moving forward.At the same time, returns on US government bonds are also staying low. This makes assets like gold, which don't pay interest, more attractive to investors because they aren't giving up much in potential earnings by not holding bonds insteadThe question for market participants right now is how much further can the gold rally go?Fed Policy Holds the Key On Wednesday, the much anticipated Federal Reserve decision will be the main focus for financial markets. It does appear as though a 25bps rate cut has largely been priced in and thus we have seen many analysts talk about the potential of a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ reaction to the rate decision.With that in mind, markets may be more focused on the dot plot and how the Fed sees the rate outlook moving forward. The calls by the Trump administration as well as a weakening labor market has seen markets price in more aggressive rate cuts over the next 12 months.A dovish Fed outlook could fuel the Gold rally and push the precious metal toward the $3800/oz handle. A more hawkish outlook or no changes to the dot plot could see the Gold prices finally drop and pullback toward the $3600/oz handle.A lot rests on the Fed decision and outlook tomorrow. For more on this read Guide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchFed Independence Concerns Linger The Fed meeting is holding its monetary policy meeting at a difficult time. US President Donald Trump is actively trying to influence their decisions, and there are legal challenges against the Fed's leadership which has led to concerns around Fed independence which is also aiding the Gold rally.Leading up to the meeting, President Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell on social media to make a bigger interest rate cut than what is expected. Trump believes that a more significant cut is overdue and would greatly help the housing market.In a related development, a U.S. appeals court stopped an attempt by President Trump to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her position, ruling that his reasons were not legally sufficient. This means Lisa Cook is expected to participate in Wednesday's important vote.Additionally, Stephen Miran, a key economic advisor to President Trump, was narrowly confirmed by the Senate to join the Federal Reserve Board. Analysts believe that Miran might push for a larger interest rate cut than what most people expect, which keeps the question about how much political influence might affect the Fed's decisions.Other Factors Supporting Gold Prices Gold is receiving an extra boost from heightened global tensions, which are pushing investors toward safe-haven assets.This increase in geopolitical risk is primarily driven by two major developments: an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as Israel launched a significant ground offensive in Gaza City on Tuesday, and an intensification of drone and missile strikes by Ukraine on Russian refineries, which is disrupting Russia's energy infrastructure.Economic Calendar For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, Gold broke out of the bull flag pattern on a four-hour timeframe before rallying to its potential target around the $3700/oz handle.We are seeing a pullback since then with the latest four hour candle closing as a hanging man, which hints at further downside.Given the rally this week, we could see a bit of a pullback as some market participants may look to take profit ahead of the FOMC meeting.The period-14 RSI is also in overbought territory. A break back below the 70 level on the RSI usually signals a shift in momentum and could lead to a short-term push lower.However, we have seen similar attempts at a pullback since the backend of last week and each time buyers returned with conviction to print fresh highs.Thus there is a possibility that this could continue heading into the US Fed rate decision.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, September 16, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

European currencies are having a fantastic year, with the CHF, the Euro, and GBP achieving their best performance since the early 2000s.With US President Trump doing everything he can to devalue the US dollar (tariffs, beefs with other countries, menacing the Fed's Independence, and Jerome Powell), and on the other side of the Atlantic, EU countries allying to boost productivity in the years to come, the conditions for such outperformance are optimal.Regarding basic economics, one thing to watch for Europe and Switzerland could be a too-strong currency, which would impair exports in an already-cooling economy (and crippled with 39% tariffs with the US).In fact, Switzerland has been in deflation since May 2025. While its economy continues to grow slowly, such economic activity is not expected to hold up much given the recent SNB dovishness.UPDATE: New yearly lows recently got reached in a bearish acceleration – The US Dollar is really not liking Miran joining the FOMC committee right before the beginning of the Meeting!In the current state of geopolitics, participants looking for safety have had enough of a yen that loses too much in Carry due to historically low rates and have come back to the Swissie in search of value amid a less-competitive dollar. 2025 Currency Performance, September 16, 2025 – Source: InvestingLive.com This nice graph offered by InvestingLive depicts how strong the geographic trends (mentioned through many of our previous pieces) guide Forex performance.European currencies are leading with the new shift in narrative, followed by APAC (JPY, NZD and AUD) and finally North-American currencies which have struggled quite a lot.Tomorrow should be interesting as traders really are pre-selling the US Dollar in what seems to be rushed-hedges for a dovish FOMC.Any hawkishness or even a more neutral than dovish tone, and/or mentioning of tariff uncertainty should lead to consequent mean-reversion for the USD.More mentions towards labor market weakness and one time tariff price hikes would be confirming the USD down-move.Up about 0.80% as we speak, let's have a look at USDCHF multi-timeframe charts to gain our edge on potential reversal or continuation levels for the pair. Read More:Guide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchBreaking News: US August Retail Sales at 5.0% Y/Y vs 3.2% expected, beats consensusUSDCHF multi-timeframe analysis ahead of the FOMCUSDCHF Daily chart USDCHF Daily Chart, September 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite a strong rebound in the USD in July followed by a monthly consolidation in August, the selling in CHFUSD has started to accelerate since the September NFP release, breaching 0.80 psychological level.The first time the level was breached in 2025 was in mid-June, when Powell testified. Early July consequently saw a huge reversal higher in the pair.The breakdown has happened on a few strong bear bars and bears should soon face the 2025 0.7875 Lows support, with prices entering that region.Daily RSI still has place for movement and is not showing signs of upward tilt – However, one cannot forget that things may change in a flash in tomorrow's FOMC announcement.USDCHF 4H Chart USDCHF 4H Chart, September 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The ongoing price action is a solid tight bear channel, with traders rushing to exit and hedge their positions before tomorrow's huge trading Session.Reactions will be interesting as this morning saw another rejection of the 50-period MA at the conjunction of the 2025 downward trendline, which led a huge descent in prices.USDCHF is now trading around the middle of a freshly formed channel (with the 2025 downtrend) and with oversold RSI conditions, it will be interesting to spot what traders look to do looking forward.Trading Levels for USDCHFDaily Resistance Levels0.7970 MA 500.80 psychological levelLong-term pivot 0.80 Zone (0.80 to 0.81)Main resistance 0.8150 to 0.82 (last highs 0.8165)May 2025 highs 0.8475 Resistance ZoneDaily Support Levels0.7890 current daily lows and counting (and middle of downward channel)0.7840 to 0.7875 2025 lows0.77 to 0.7735 August 2011 lowsUSDCHF 1H Chart USDCHF 1H Chart, September 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView A measured move would place the pair to new lows in 2025 as the imminent selling accelerates after the Retail Sales data.On the other hand, watch for the way oversold levels – The tight bull channel is expected to hold as long as no bull candle closes above the previous one, so sellers are tightly in control for now.Watch price action in any close above the 0.7950 short-term pivot zone and any potential acceleration above 0.80. If the current trend continues, look at the 2011 support levels.Safe Trades and successful trading ahead of the FOMC!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Retail Sales (YoY) (August): +5.0% vs +3.2% expected, above consensus by +1.8%US Retail Sales (MoM) (August): +0.6% vs +0.2% expected, above consensus by +0.4%US Retail Sales Control Group (MoM) (August): +0.7% vs +0.4% expected, above consensus by +0.3%US Retail Sales ex. Gas/Autos (MoM) (August): +0.7% vs -0.1% expected, above consensus by +0.8%US Retail Sales ex. Autos (MoM) (August): +0.7% vs +0.4% expected, above consensus by +0.3%US Retail Sales Report (August 2025): Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services August 2025, U.S. Census Bereau "Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.0 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent (±0.2 percent).""Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.4 percent) from July 2025, and up 4.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 10.1 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year, while food service and drinking places were up 6.5 percent (±1.8 percent) from August 2024." Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services August 2025, U.S. Census Bereau Breaking: US Retail Sales for August came in at +5.0% YoY, significantly beating the consensus of 3.2% by +1.8%. Monthly retail sales also beat expectations, at +0.6% vs +0.2% expected.Nonstore retailers and food & drinking venues boast the largest yearly gains, up +10.1% and +6.5% respectively.Key takeaway: Despite concerns about how tariffs could affect employment and consumer pricing, retail sales rose well above expectations in August. For now, the average US consumer seems undeterred by economic uncertainty, at least in regard to their spending habits. Read more on markets today: Markets Today: Gold Hits Fresh-Highs, UK Wage Growth Slows, US Dollar Slips, FTSE 100 Hovers at Support Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The British pound has posted gains for a second straight day. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3636, up 0.28% on the day.UK employment declines, wages dip The UK employment report didn't shine but there were no nasty surprises and investors reacted with a thumbs-up for the British pound.The number of employees on payrolls fell by eight thousand in August, marking a seventh consecutive decline. Still, this figure was less than expected, suggesting that perhaps the worst is over for the labor market, which softened after the government enacted higher payroll taxes and a hike in the minimum wage. Today's employment report has increased market expectations that the Bank of England will maintain rates at 4.0% at Thursday's meeting. As long as the labor market remains stable, the central bank is unlikely to lower rates, as inflation has been moving higher.The BoE has projected that inflation will peak at 4%, double its target. If inflation remains at such high levels, it's doubtful that the BoE will lower rates before 2026. The August inflation report, which will be released on Wednesday, is expected to show that headline CPI was unchanged at 3.8% y/y and core CPI eased to 3.6% from 3.8%.GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.3629. Above, there is resistance at 1.36621.3588 and 1.3555 are providing support GBPUSD Chart 1-Day, September 16, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “GBP/USD Technical: Corrective decline ended, potential bullish reversal in progress for sterling”, published on 5 September 2025.The price actions of the sterling have staged the expected recovery against the US dollar, as the GBP/USD has rallied by 1.2% and almost hit the lower limit of our highlighted resistance zone of 1.3650/1.3680 (printed an intraday high of 1.3645 on Tuesday, 16 September 2025, at the time of writing). Today’s stellar performance of the GBP/USD (+0.3% has also been reinforced by better-than-expected July’s employment change data for the UK, which came in at 232,000, above the consensus of 222,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady for the third consecutive month at 4.7%, in line with expectations.Read: Guide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchLet’s now update the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical elements of the GBP/USD ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC monetary policy decision outcome and the release of the latest Fed economic projections (dot plot). Fig. 1: GBP/USD minor trend as of 16 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) A new minor bullish impulsive up move sequence is likely to have kicked off for the GBP/USD from its 3 September 2025 minor bullish reversal low of 1.3333 on the onset of the intraday spike up of the 30-year UK gilt yield over fiscal policy fears.Maintain bullish bias above a tightened short-term pivotal support of 1.3590/1.3570 on the GBP/USD, with the next intermediate resistances to come in at 1.3715 and 1.3750 (also a Fibonacci extension).Key elements The latest price actions of the GBP/USD since 3 September 2025 have evolved into a minor ascending channel, with its upper boundary now standing at around 1.3750.The GBP/USD has traded above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 5 September 2025, which reinforces the potential ongoing minor bullish impulsive up move sequence.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the GBP/USD has continued to evolve in a bullish momentum condition as it manages to hold above its ascending support.The 2-year yield spread premium between the UK gilt and US Treasury note has continued to expand (inched higher) since the 3 September 2025 level of 0.29% to a current level of 0.45% at the time of writing.These observations indicate that short-term UK gilts remain relatively more attractive than US Treasuries due to their yield premium, creating a positive feedback loop that supports further strength in the GBP/USD.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below 1.3570 key short-term support in GBP/USD will negate the bullish tone for a deeper minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 1.3500 (also the 20-day moving average) and 1.3450 (also the 50-day moving average) Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian dollar is steady on Tuesday, after starting the week with gains of 0.48% against the US dollar. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3765, down 0.09% on the day. It's a busy mid-week for Canadian events, with the August inflation report later today and the Bank of Canada decision on Wednesday.Canada's CPI expected to climb to 2% Headline CPI is expected to rise to 2% in August, up from 1.7% in July. Two key core inflation indicators are projected to post an average of 3.05% unchanged from July.The Bank of Canada is widely expected to lower rates at Wednesday's meeting, after holding rates for three consecutive meetings. The markets are expecting a quarter-point reduction which would lower the policy rate to 2.75%, its lowest level since July 2022. The economy is sending out distress signals. GDP in the second quarter contracted by 1.6% and the labor market shed 100 thousand jobs in July and August. The unemployment rate rose to 7.1% from 6.9%, a three-year high.The weak data strongly supports the case for a rate cut but underlying inflation is well above the BoC's 2% target, which is likely the reason that the central bank has held off from lowering rates. With the labor market deteriorating, the BoC will likely respond with a rate cut in order to stop the bleeding. Underlying inflation remains higher than the BoC wants to see, but barring a huge increase in inflation, a rate cut appears a done deal.The BoC remains concerned about the US-Canada trade war, which has created a lot of uncertainty with regard to the direction of growth and inflation. However, with the announcement in August that Canada would remove counter-tariffs on US goods covered by the Canada-US-Mexico agreement, the BoC is likely to be more comfortable lowering rates.USD/CAD Technical USD has dropped below support at 1.3772 and is testing 1.3766. Below, there is support at 1.3757There is resistance at 1.3781 and 1.3787 USDCAD 4-Hour Chart, September 16, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities, and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The most important day in a few trading months is coming up fast (two days left!).The September FOMC rate decision is part of four quarterly meetings where key economic projections (SEP or Summary of Economic Projections) are published (don't forget the 4 other meetings). They take place in March, June, September and December.These quarterly meetings tend to hold higher weight on potential changes to the FED's tone. With Wednesday's meeting in focus, markets are preparing for a change in tone and changing SEPs.While the decision itself may not surprise (25 bps is heavily priced in and should be the basis except for any surprise), the details in the projections and Powell’s tone at the press conference will dictate the market reaction.One good thing to do is to also follow any pre-FOMC post from Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos who re-guided wrongly priced markets during the 2022 hike cycle and is considered as an insider. The FED "leaks" their own info that way to avoid shaking markets too suddenly, with the US dollar's central role in the global economy – As a reminder, FED members cannot speak on the Economic or financial outlook two weeks before the FOMC meeting in what is called the "Blackout period".Don't forget to also check out our freshly released Podcast with discussions on the upcoming FOMC.(and Too Long, Didn't Read recap further down if needed). Read More:British pound hits two-month high, UK job data nextMarkets Weekly Outlook - S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow Jones on a Tear as Fed Rate Cut LoomsWhat to take from the previous meeting At the previous meeting (July 30, 2025), Powell struck a balanced but cautious tone amid still high tariff uncertainty.He acknowledged progress on disinflation but highlighted tariff-driven risks to the inflation outlook. His remarks left the door open to cuts later in the year, but the Fed emphasized it would remain data-dependent.The June last SEP reflected this stance: inflation forecasts were nudged slightly lower, growth remained resilient, and the famous dot plot still suggested two cuts before year-end — a point markets have since debated heavily. June 2025 SEP, source: Federal Reserve What to watch in the September SEPDot Plot: The median projection for rate cuts will be the market’s first checkpoint. A shift from two cuts to one would reinforce a hawkish narrative, while holding steady would keep the Fed aligned with current pricing.Inflation forecasts (Core PCE, PCE): Expect markets to scrutinize whether tariffs are raising the Fed’s inflation expectations. Any upward revision would challenge the softening CPI and PPI figures released this week and the change in tone from Powell's Jackson Hole speech. The inflation projections might be revised upward in 2025 and down in later year: Major key is to watch 2026 PCE projections and onwards to get a glimpse of 2026 cut pricing (currently 140 bps are priced in).Unemployment rate: A move higher would confirm the gradual softening already seen in recent jobs reports – A sudden rise in this could shift the pace of cuts priced in.What was said in Powell's previous FOMC speech? You can access Powell's July FOMC speech right here. I also invite you to balance these comments with what was said in his Jackson Hole speech (link available just above).Through his July speech, Powell emphasized the FED's dual mandate (inflation and maximum employment) and could be expected to put an extra emphasis on the employment mandate with the Labor market data degrading.He also emphasized a moderating economic activity with tariff uncertainty (uncertainty should be expected to get less mentions) Reading Jerome Powell’s speech.Markets know by now that Powell’s tone matters as much as the text. Expect sharp reactions to how he balances:Confidence in inflation trending lower vs. caution about tariff pass-through.Reassurance on labor market strength vs. acknowledgment of weakness in recent payrolls.Whether he hints at future financial stability concerns, particularly with equities and crypto markets surging. Analysts tend to highlight the number of mentions for elements like: Employment/unemployment, inflation, tariffs etc to spot what the FED will focus on looking forward.Market dynamics Current state of Markets, September 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bond yields have already been retreating, with the 2Y at its lowest since April’s “Liberation Day” trough. Don't forget to take a look at the 2-10s curve: Currently very steep due to higher short-term cut expectations but higher inflation (= higher long term rates)Risk assets are at all-time highs, therefore the Markets hold high expectations for a dovish tone, watch out for disappointments !FX markets remain rangebound, leaving the Dollar Index exposed to any surprises in the dot plot or Powell’s tone – One of the thesis I had been holding is the Seller's inability to reach new lows in a hesitant Dollar, but its reaction is still binary.With high expectations of a dovish speech, Powell could balance out recent dovish pricing with a more hawkish stance which would strengthen the US Dollar and hurt Equities a bit.TLDR conclusion: What to focus on for the upcoming FOMC TL,DR:For now a bit less than 75 bps priced in through 25 bps at every meeting.SEP: Particularly expected Fed Funds rate in end 2025 and 2026 (Neutral rate should be priced in until then for now) and Core PCE projections.More or less mentions of tariffs: Any hints of one time price hikes could bring more cuts in the future. More mentions of uncertainty = less hikes in 2026.Labor market and unemployment rate: If see more mentions of degrading employment, it could add more rate cuts more suddenly – Particularly if the FED balances out its dual mandate more towards employment.Any hawkishness to balance out the most recent dovish comments and give back some credibility to the FED's independenceSafe trades and a successful FOMC week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The British pound has started the new trading week in positive territory. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3591, up 0.26% on the day. Earlier, the pound hit a daily high of 1.3620, its highest level since July 10.UK claimant count change expected to jump The UK releases employment data on Tuesday. Claimant counts is expected to jump to 20.3 thousand in August, after a rare decline in July which saw claimant counts decline by 6.2 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.7% for a third straight time, its highest level in four years.Wage growth including bonuses is expected to rise to 4.7%, up from 4.6% in the previous release, which was the lowest pace in nine months. It's a busy week in the UK, with the inflation report on Wednesday and the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday. The BoE is expected to maintain rates at 4.0% after last month's narrow 5-4 decision to lower rates. Governor Bailey has said rates would move "downwards gradually over time" but hasn't provided any details as to the timing or extent of cuts.The new danger - stagflationThe UK may have already entered stagflation, which is a toxic mix of persistently high inflation, weak growth and rising unemployment. This presents a major headache for the BoE, as weak growth supports a rate cut while high inflation could get worse if the BoE reduces rates.The central bank is hesitant to lower rates with inflation close to 4%, but may have to cut before the end of the year if the labor market continues to deteriorate. Tuesday's job report is unlikely to change minds at the BoE, which is expected to hold rates. Still, it could be a factor in the November rate decision.GBP/USD Technical GBPUSD has pushed above resistance at 1.3564 and is testing 1.3589 Above, there is resistance at 1.3605There is support at 1.3548 GBPUSD 1-Day September 15, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow Jones on a Tear as Fed Rate Cut LoomsOil prices have risen as much as 1.17% at the start of the week following claims by Ukrainian forces that their recent drone attacks have hit two major Russian oil centers in the Baltic Sea.According to reports, these strikes temporarily halted crude oil shipments at Primorsk, Russia's biggest oil port, late last week. There are also claims that three pumping stations that send oil to another port, Ust-Luga, were also attacked.Russia Sanction Calls Grow Add to this growing calls for harsher sanctions on countries and entities which are still purchasing Russian Oil.Pressure is increasing on Russia after a statement from the U.S. President. On Saturday, he said the U.S. is ready to place new sanctions on Russia's energy sector. However, this would only happen if all NATO member countries agree to stop buying Russian oil and enforce similar actions.Markets appear cautious in this regard and thus oil prices remain supported.China Oil Demand Robust Despite Poor Industrial Production Data Based on data from this morning, Chinese oil refiners processed almost 15 million barrels of crude oil per day in August. This is a 7.6% increase from the same time last year, thanks to a combination of strong oil imports and more oil being produced within China.Additionally, the apparent demand for oil in China—the amount of oil being used—rose to 14.53 million barrels per day last month, which is a 4.9% increase compared to August of the previous year.This comes as Chinese data off late have shown signs of deterioration which may be a concern moving forward. For now though, Oil demand and refining remains at impressive levels which will also support oil prices as it mitigates any fears around a demand slowdown for now.Outlook Moving Forward Despite the rally we are seeing today Oil prices upside potential may remain limited. The reason for this is largely down to growing expectations of a potential slowdown in global growth for the rest of the year.OPEC + output hike has also added to the dilemma which is keeping Oil prices relatively rangebound.Later in the week, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision could have a knock-on impact on oil prices as well. We will also get updated inventories data as markets brace for a potential inventory build-up in Q4 2025. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - WTI From a technical analysis standpoint, Oil is eyeing a move toward the 100-day MA which rests at 64.65.Oil has failed to break above the 64.00 a barrel mark since September 4.Any attempt to break above this level has been met with significant selling pressure.However, a close around the current price would provide some hope for bulls, as it would be seen as a morningstar candlestick pattern which hints at further upside.Any move will depend on developments around Russia/Ukraine which for the moment seems to be the major driving force of Oil price moves.Immediate resistance rests at 64.00 before the psychological 65.00 mark and the 200-day MA at 67.15 come into focus.Looking at support to the downside and the first point of interest will be the recent swing low at 62.19 before the 60.77 and psychological 60.00 handle come into focus.WTI Oil Daily Chart, September 15, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “Hang Seng Index Technical: Recent sell-off overdone, bullish trend remains intact”, published on 5 September 2025.The Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) has staged the expected bullish breakout above its prior 4-week “Ascending Wedge” range resistance of 25,890 and hit the next intermediate resistance at 26,120, as highlighted in our prior report. Thereafter, it extended its gains and scaled up to a 4-year high of 26,583 on 12 September 2025, a rally of 4.7% on the backdrop of a stronger Chinese yuan and robust bullish sentiment in China's Big Tech, such as Alibaba, Baidu, NetEase, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, riding on the tailwinds of China’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) self-reliance policy, with less usage of external semiconductor chips such as Nvidia’s H20.Let’s now examine the latest related fundamental factors that have an impact on the Hong Kong 33 CFD IndexChina’s home prices continued to decline at a slower pace Fig. 1: China’s industrial production, retail sales, house price index for Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Today’s release of China’s industrial production and retail sales for August, which came in below expectations, does not cause a negative material impact on the intraday movements of the China and Hong Kong stock markets, where China’s CSI 300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed higher by 0.2% each, respectively.The “bullish relief” stemmed from signs of recovery in China’s housing market, a key factor in preventing an entrenched deflationary spiral. New home prices for August, released today, marked their 10th straight month of improvement since the 10-year low of -5.9% y/y recorded in October 2024.China’s new home prices across 70 cities fell 2.5% y/y in August 2025, moderating from July’s 2.8% decline. This marks the slowest pace of contraction since March 2024 and helps ease concerns over a potential deflationary spiral in the Chinese economy (see Fig. 1).Hence, a slower pace of decline in China’s new home prices, coupled with a firmer offshore Chinese yuan against the US dollar since April 2025, managed to trigger a positive feedback loop back into the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index.Here comes the latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical levels to watch on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index Fig. 2: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index minor trend as of 15 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bullish consolidation above adjusted key short-term pivotal support at 26,200. The minor bullish impulsive up move sequence of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index remains intact.A clearance above 26,530 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 26,740/26,790 and 26,940 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2).Key elements The upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel in place since 2 June 2025, now stands at 26,940.The 1-hour RSI momentum indicator remains above its ascending support at around the 50 level.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 26,200 key short-term support negates the bullish tone on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index for a deeper minor corrective decline to materialise and retest the former “Ascending Triangle” range resistance, now turns medium-term pull-back support at 25,860. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian dollar is coming off its best week since April, posting gains of 1.4%. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6657, up 0.12% on the day.China's industrial production, retail sales slip in August China posted disappointing data in September, as the second largest economy in the world continues to cool. Industrial production expanded 5.2% y/y, down from 5.8% in August and below the market estimate of 5.7%. This was the lowest pace of growth since August 2024, as manufacturing activity slowed and domestic remained weak.China's retail sales rose 3.4% y/y in September, below 3.7% in August and the market estimate of 3.8%. This was the slowest pace since November 2024 and the third straight month of acceleration. There was more bad news on the labor front, as the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3% from 5.2%, the highest level since February. The US-China trade war is weighing on China's economy and the government is pushing exporters to find news markets. If that boosts economic activity, it will be good news for Australia, as China is its largest trading partner.Investors are keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve, which is virtually certain to lower rates on Wednesday. The Fed hasn't cut rates since December 2024, which means that a cut will be a significant move, even if it has been priced in by the markets. With the US labor market showing signs of strain, the Fed could cut again before the end of the year, likely in December. Inflation remains above the 2% target but the Fed considers the weakening job market a bigger threat to the economy than inflation.AUD/USD Technical AUDUSD is testing resistance at 0.6650. Above, there is resistance at 0.66680.6630 and 0.6612 are the next support levels AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 15, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares Edge Higher, Japanese Markets Closed Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow Jones on a Tear as Fed Rate Cut LoomsAsian stock markets rose, following a global trend, as investors expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon.Even with disappointing economic news from China—where business activity slowed and investment fell sharply for the second month in a row.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index, a measure of stocks across Asia, climbed 0.2% to surpass its previous record set in February 2021. Meanwhile, a global stock index held steady after hitting its own record high on Friday.Due to a holiday in Japan, there was no trading of US government bonds (Treasuries) in Asia.Nikkei futures stood at 44520 just below the cash close of 44768 after last weeks 4% gain.South Korea's stock market went up by 0.4% to reach another record high after the government decided not to increase taxes on stock investments.Chinese stocks performed well, with major companies up by 0.5% and Hong Kong's stock index up by 0.2%. This was driven by investors betting on Chinese technology companies, likely because of ongoing trade discussions between China and the U.S.Top officials from the U.S. and China began trade talks in Madrid on Sunday and will continue them today. President Trump mentioned he is still in negotiations about the deadline for the Chinese app TikTok to sell its U.S. operations.Chinese Data Underwhelms China's factory and industrial output grew by 5.2% compared to the same time last year. This was a slower pace than July's 5.7% and was less than what economists had predicted. It was the slowest growth since August 2024. The slowdown was mainly due to weaker growth in manufacturing and in the production of things like electricity and gas, which suggests that people in China aren't buying as much.However, some areas still did well. Mining output grew steadily, and within manufacturing, many key sectors saw growth. This included industries like car making, computers, shipbuilding, and metal production. Even with the recent slowdown, China's industrial output has still grown by 6.2% over the first eight months of the year. On a month-to-month basis, output increased by a small amount, 0.37%.European Open - Banking Stocks Lift European Shares European stocks went up on Monday morning, mainly because bank stocks did well. Investors are getting ready for a big week of meetings by central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could decide to cut interest rates.Shares of the French company Rubis also jumped 6.7% after a report came out saying that two companies, CVC Capital Partners and Trafigura, are making offers to buy it. Rubis is a fuel company worth about $3.5 billion.In France, the stock market went up by 0.4%, with French banks like SocGen, BNP Paribas, and Credit Agricole all seeing their share prices increase.This happened despite the fact that Fitch downgraded France's credit rating on Friday. This downgrade could make it harder for the new Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, to create a new budget.On the FX front, the euro weakened slightly against the dollar, trading at 1.1729.Meanwhile, the British pound and Australian dollar both rose. The pound increased to 1.3565, and the Australian dollar went up to 0.6663, getting close to its highest value in 10 months, which it reached on Friday.The Japanese yen also became a bit stronger, trading at 147.44 per U.S. dollar, as investors anticipate the Bank of Japan's policy meeting later this week. The New Zealand dollar also saw a small gain, rising to 0.5964.Even though China released disappointing economic news—showing that its factory production and retail sales had their weakest growth since last year—the Chinese yuan still saw a slight increase against the US dollar, reaching 7.1213 per dollar. This was mainly because the US dollar was a bit weaker overall.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased slightly on Monday. This was due to two main factors: drone attacks by Ukraine on oil refineries in Russia and a statement from U.S. President Donald Trump.Trump said he is ready to place sanctions on Russia if NATO countries stop buying Russian oil.Brent crude oil cost $67.31 per barrel, up 32 cents, and U.S. crude oil cost $63.01 per barrel, also up 32 cents. Both types of oil rose by about 0.5%.Gold prices remained steady on Monday. Investors are waiting for the U.S. Federal Reserve to announce a rate cut, which is widely expected to happen this week. However, some investors are selling their gold to take profits after its recent rise, and a stronger U.S. dollar is also limiting how much gold prices can increase.Spot gold was priced at $3,642.65 per ounce. Last week, gold climbed about 1.6%, reaching a new record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday.Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for December delivery went down slightly, by 0.2%, to $3,680.20.For more information on Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Eyeing a new all-time high above US$3,675, supported by positive flows and positioningEconomic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be a quiet one with the US session also relatively bare from a data perspective.Markets will focus on updates from US-China talks, developments around Russia-Ukraine and any comments around the Federal Reserve from the Trump administration could stoke volatility. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSEhas returned to the top of the range it broke last week.Bulls remain in control as long as the FTSE remains above the swing low at 9242 which lines up with the 100-day MA.Looking at price action it does appear that we could get a pullback toward the 100-day MA before a potential new leg to the upside.Immediate resistance now rests at 9300 and 9340.Looking at support on the downside, immediate support rests at 9244 before the 9223 and 9198 handles come into focus.FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 15. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US tariffs are still influencing global trade quite largely despite having a less-intense headline impact on Markets. The latest pressure was put on Mexico which hiked tariffs on Chinese imports and particularly on auto imports. China recently expressed their discontent with the situation.WTI Oil prices saw a recent spike amid elevated tariff rhetoric and continuing geopolitical heat, particularly on countries who import cheap Russian oil.Washington is pushing G7 and EU nations to impose up to 100% tariffs on China and India for buying Russian oil, arguing those purchases keep Moscow’s war machine funded.Japan was among the latest movers to add pressuring policies on these importers in a strong diplomatic gesture.These measures keep affecting the oil market already priced for disruption. Supply worries, trade barriers, and risk premiums are showing up in spreads and futures curves. Let’s dig into the technicals to see if US Oil is finding a bottom or if the ripple effects have a longer way to run. Read More:ETH breaks out and SOL surges higher, keeping crypto markets tightAnother piece highlighting pressures on WTI: Weakness prevails below US$64.36/barrel as geopolitical risk premium fizzles outUS Oil multi-timeframe technical analysisWTI 4H chart WTI 4H Chart, September 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView Oil is still evolving in the $62 to $64 consolidation range mentioned in our previous WTI piece.The action did spike above the 4H MA 50 from the latest headlines, to reverse the bearish price action led by the consecutive (relatively low) PPI and CPI releases highlighting a small decrease in activity and demand.Higher supply from OPEC+ is now priced in, leaving the space for headline-based movement ahead.Levels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance Levels$64 50-period Moving Average and consolidation highsHigher timeframe pivot $66July mid-range $67 resistanceSupport LevelsMay range Support $63 to $64 (currently testing)Current consolidation lows $61.84 to $62$60.5 Low of May RangeWTI 1H Chart WTI 1H Chart, September 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView Diving into intraday charts, impulsive bull moves from the overnight session brings pressure to the upper bound of the range.Weekend risk and headlines will maintain probabilities of further upside trading as the past few weekends had brought some volatile swings in the commodity.Breaking above would point to a test of the $66 pivot zone, while failing to break will confirm a stronger consolidation.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.