The Eurozone CPI report will be the final estimate for August, with the preliminary one seen here. Given that this is the final estimate, it typically isn't a market mover. That especially since the numbers are likely to reaffirm the ECB's stance of keeping policy steady at the moment. Core annual inflation was estimated at 2.3% in the preliminary report with services inflation remaining sticky at 3.1%.As such, the more interesting release today will be the UK CPI report for August at 0600 GMT.The estimate for for headline annual inflation to come in at 3.8% - similar to July. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is estimated to ease slightly to 3.6% - down from 3.8% in July.Analysts are mostly projecting that food price inflation in the UK is going to keep creeping higher for now, set to peak in September. That is likely to keep the headline estimate elevated. However, services inflation is expected to gradually decline with most calls arguing for a deceleration in prices for travel services. That is largely due to a surge in airfares in July, which saw a later index date.Still, the calls are relatively mixed going into the report later. On the lower end, BofA and Morgan Stanley sees core annual inflation in the UK printing at 3.5% in August. Meanwhile, ING and UBS have that at 3.7% while HSBC sees headline annual inflation hitting 4.0%. And then we have Barclays, Nomura, and Deutsche all calling for a 3.6% estimate on core annual inflation.But whatever the case is, the report today will not likely do much to change up the BOE outlook for the Thursday decision. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

A 25 bps rate cut is widely expected, with traders already fully pricing that in. The odds of a 50 bps rate cut remain at ~4%, so it will be a big dovish surprise if we do see such an outcome play out later. But in all likelihood, we should just see some dissents in calling for a 50 bps move but one question will be how many policymakers will be swayed into that decision?Trump's puppet Miran is one that surely dissent and we could see Bowman and Waller follow up on that. However, will there be more voices taking their side this time around? We'll have to wait to find out.Besides the decision, the Fed's latest dot plots will also be under scrutiny and that is another key part to watch out for. Will they signal just two rate cuts for 2025? And what about 2026? A more dovish take here could be enough to keep markets persuaded and reaffirm the more dovish outlook that has been building in the past few weeks.And finally, another key thing to eye is Fed chair Powell's press conference. His communique will be pivotal in determining the kind of bias that is taking shape at the Fed now. I reckon he will stick to a similar communication as we saw in Jackson Hole. But if Powell is to put more emphasis on deteriorating labour market conditions, markets will lap that up and take it to mean that the Fed has caved once again.Powell's comments on inflation will also be one to be mindful of. But so long as that is still yet to meaningfully show up in the data, risk trades and dollar bears will find any reason to keep the run going. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Markets tread water ahead of Fed decision; yen steady, yuan dips to 10-month low.Is Nvidia a Buy with the FOMC? One Simple Chart Tells the StoryChina’s golden week travel bookings surge, rail to handle 219m trips, boosting spendingJapan pension giant GPIF starts domestic alternative investing with ¥50bn allocationICYMI China services boost plan, opening key sectors & funding sports, culture, healthcareRecap: Japan’s exports fall for 4th month, US tariffs hit autos and chip equipment hardestChina’s rare-earth export curbs hit European firms, EUR millions lost, shortages loomingPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1013 (vs. estimate at 7.1021)Japan trade data August 2025: Exports -0.1% y/y (exp -1.9%), Imports -5.2% y/y (exp -7.5%)Australia's Westpac Leading Index slips back below trendSingapore's non oil exports slumped in August, very disappointing miss on estimatesBofA sees $4,000 gold by 2026 but warns Fed risks could spark near-term pullbackSocGen warns stocks could unwind if Fed proves less dovish than markets expectFed preview: Most banks expect 25 bp cut, some 50 bp bigger easing, bigger impact, moveNew Zealand data: Q2 Current Account deficit is lower than expectedEx-Fed President Mester says here's what's making the FOMC rate cut decision so difficultMorgan Stanley CIO pushes 60/20/20 portfolio, says gold now stronger hedge than TreasuriesNew Zealand data: Westpac Consumer Confidence (Q3 2025) 90.9 (vs. prior 91.2)BofA survey: Fund managers keep crypto allocations near zero despite market growthPrivate survey of oil inventories shows a larger than expected headline crude oil drawinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 16 Sep: US retail sales climb ahead of FOMC decisionIt was another subdued session as investors sat tight ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. Markets broadly expect a 25bp cut, though there’s concern the Fed may signal a less dovish path than currently priced.Local news was light. Japan’s exports fell again in August, but the contraction was smaller than expected thanks to a rebound in shipments to Asia. Still, overall exports remained negative for a fourth consecutive month.FX was rangebound across the majors. USD/CNY slipped to a fresh 10-month low after Tuesday’s sharp U.S. dollar drop, with the PBOC offering little resistance — setting the daily fix with almost no damping. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) +0.2%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +1.35%Shanghai Composite +0.38%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.75% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

When it comes to Nvidia stock (NVDA), the question many traders and investors are asking is simple: Is Nvidia a buy?If I had to rely on just one single chart to guide me on where NVDA may be going next, and where future price reactions are most likely, this would be the one. Let's jump right into my video on the investingLive.com Youtube Channel (please do subscribe):The chart highlights two key technical phases:A major breakout from a multi-month descending channel (blue).A current consolidation in a yellow box, following a strong rally and Nvidia’s most recent earnings report.This makes Nvidia a battleground between short-term swing traders and patient long-term buyers.Current NVDA Price ContextNVDA is trading near $175.Price has been oscillating inside the $164–$185 range since earnings.The trend leading into this consolidation (yellow channel on the chart, see the most simple technical analysis of NVDA stock within the video above) was strongly bullish, sparked by AI demand, data center growth, and continued earnings strength.Where Swing Traders Are LookingSwing professionals tend to focus on clear range levels where liquidity builds. In Nvidia’s case:Top of the range: $184–$185This is a prime short setup for many pros, expecting sellers to defend this ceiling.Bottom of the range: $164–$165A natural long setup for swing traders, looking to catch the bounce back toward the midpoint or upper band.This range-trading approach will dominate until Nvidia breaks decisively above or below the yellow consolidation channel.The Big Picture for Buy-and-Hold InvestorsWe all get that AI is a serious revolution. But there are other voices, too. Goldman Sachs warns that a slowdown in AI spending could knock 15–20% off the S&P 500, given the index’s heavy reliance on AI-linked firms. Analysts caution that deceleration by late 2025 could leave equities vulnerable. Luckily, we have the more simple, perhaps more effective guidance from the right technical analysis perspective.While traders battle inside the $164–$185 box, long-term investors may be eyeing a deeper level:$147 – the breakout junction where Nvidia escaped its long multi-month blue channel.A retest of that area would likely attract patient accumulation from institutional players and buy-and-hold professionals.In other words, while swing traders may play the short-term range, investors are waiting with cash in hand for a bigger pullback to $147 as a more attractive entry point.So, Nvidia a Buy or Sell?The answer depends on your timeframe, but you must see that video above:Swing traders: Nvidia is currently a range-bound trade. Short setups around $184–$185 and long setups near $164–$165 are the high-probability plays.Long-term investors: The $147 level stands out as a strategic accumulation point if the stock retests its breakout zone.For now, Nvidia remains one of the strongest AI and semiconductor plays in the market, but timing matters.⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trading and investing carry risk. Always do your own research.Visit investingLive.com (formerly ForexLive.com) for more insights and trade setups. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

China is bracing for a bumper “golden week” holiday travel rush that could deliver a welcome lift to consumer spending. Early data from travel operators points to strong demand for domestic and international trips during the eight-day holiday starting October 1, which combines the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day.Railways are forecast to carry 219 million passengers between September 29 and October 10, well above the 177 million handled over 10 days last year, when a record 21.4 million traveled on October 1 alone. Airlines and online platforms also report robust demand: searches for domestic flights were up 30% year-on-year in early September, while bookings for flights, trains, and car rentals have all climbed. Car rental bookings for multi-destination trips surged 93% from last year, according to Fliggy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), the world’s largest retirement fund, has begun selecting domestic alternative asset funds on its own for the first time, shifting away from relying on external asset managers. The fund will allocate ¥50 billion ($340 million) — with ¥40 billion earmarked for infrastructure such as data centers and ¥10 billion for real estate — according to recently published documents.While small compared with GPIF’s ¥260 trillion in total assets, the move gives the fund greater oversight of its portfolio and marks a step toward diversifying into higher-yielding assets less tied to stock and bond market swings. Alternatives carry risks such as low liquidity and exposure to property and infrastructure cycles, but they are increasingly popular among global peers. GPIF still caps alternatives at 5% of its portfolio, though current exposure is only 1.6%. -GPIF’s direct entry into Japanese alternative funds highlights growing demand for yield in real assets. While the sums are small relative to its size, the move could provide a lift to domestic infrastructure and property markets, while signaling that Japan’s institutional investors are catching up with global peers on alternative allocations. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

On Tuesday China announced a broad set of measures to boost services consumption as it grapples with slowing economic momentum. The plan, issued by nine agencies including the commerce and finance ministries and the central bank, pledges to further open sectors such as internet, culture, telecommunications, medical care, and education. Authorities aim to attract more foreign and private investment, particularly in mid- to high-end healthcare, leisure, and tourism.The measures also emphasize developing the sports economy through international events, mass activities, boutique competitions, and professional leagues. To support these initiatives, Beijing will deploy central government funds and local special bonds for infrastructure projects in cultural, tourism, elderly care, childcare, and sports facilities. Monetary policy tools will encourage banks to expand credit to service-sector businesses.The rollout comes as factory output and retail sales in August posted their weakest growth since last year. Policymakers are already providing interest subsidies to service industries such as catering and tourism, and 231 billion yuan ($32.5 billion) in special treasury bonds has been allocated to support consumer trade-ins of appliances and electronics. Economists argue that strengthening services consumption is critical as Beijing confronts U.S. tariffs and a broader slowdown.---China’s push to boost services highlights Beijing’s pivot toward domestic demand as growth stalls. While targeted at culture, healthcare, and tourism, the measures may help stabilize consumption-linked sectors and support equities tied to leisure and healthcare. However, continued weakness in factory output and retail sales suggests overall growth pressures remain, keeping expectations for broader stimulus alive. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s exports fell for a fourth straight month in August as higher U.S. tariffs weighed heavily on automakers and manufacturers. Exports to the U.S. plunged 13.8% year-on-year, the sharpest drop since early 2021, with automobiles down 28.4% and chipmaking equipment tumbling nearly 39%. Mizuho Research’s Saisuke Sakai noted that while some automakers have absorbed tariff costs by lowering export prices, others are now raising U.S. prices to pass costs onto consumers. He warned that combined with U.S. economic uncertainty, the tariff drag on Japan’s output will intensify into year-end.Overall exports slipped 0.1% y/y, a milder decline than expected, while imports fell 5.2% on cheaper oil. The narrower trade gap with the U.S. — at its smallest since early 2023 — could not prevent Japan from running a broader ¥242.5 billion ($1.66 billion) deficit. Washington’s July agreement to cut the baseline tariff rate on Japanese goods to 15% from higher threatened levels has provided some relief, but the levy remains multiple times the pre-trade-war norm of 2.5% on autos. Economists now see Japan’s economy contracting this quarter, and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has pledged caution on rate hikes given the external risks. Data from earlier:Japan trade data August 2025: Exports -0.1% y/y (exp -1.9%), Imports -5.2% y/y (exp -7.5%)Persistent export weakness underscores downside risks for Japan’s economy, reinforcing expectations the BOJ will stay cautious on tightening. U.S. tariffs are already curbing auto and chip equipment shipments, pressuring JPY through weaker trade flows. Continued weakness could weigh on equities tied to autos and exporters, while keeping policy support in play. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fund managers still reluctant on crypto, BofA survey shows More than half of global investors have no structural exposure to cryptocurrencies, with allocations remaining negligible despite the market’s size and influence, Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey has found.The survey, conducted in September, revealed that 67% of fund managers have zero allocation to digital assets such as bitcoin (BTC-USD), ether (ETH-USD), ripple (XRP-USD), and tether (USDT-USD). This underscores that, for many institutional investors, crypto remains outside the bounds of traditional portfolio construction.While a majority remain absent, a small minority have dipped a toe into the market. Just 3% of respondents reported a 2% allocation, another 3% hold 4%, and only 1% have exposure at 8% or more.Weighted exposure tiny:Across all respondents, the weighted average allocation to crypto stands at 0.4% of assets under management. Even among the subset of fund managers who have ventured into digital assets, the weighted allocation is modest, averaging 3.7%.That level of commitment contrasts sharply with traditional asset classes such as equities, bonds, and cash, where allocations are measured in double digits. Structural hesitation:Perhaps more striking is the structural view on crypto. Eighty-four percent of survey participants said they have not started to structurally allocate to the asset class. Only 8% said they had — suggesting that most fund managers view crypto positions, if any, as tactical or opportunistic rather than part of long-term investment strategy.Broader contextThe findings come at a time when crypto adoption continues to expand in retail markets, regulatory frameworks are slowly maturing, and a growing number of products — such as spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) — are offering investors regulated ways to access digital assets. Yet institutional skepticism lingers, centered on volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and questions about crypto’s role in diversified portfolios.For now, Bank of America’s survey highlights a wide gap: while crypto markets trade in the trillions, professional fund managers remain largely on the sidelines. For traders, if you like checking out positioning as a guide to likely market moves this is an information riish post! Bitcoin update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Via oilprice.com:--Expectations I had seen centred on:Headline crude -0.9mn barrelsDistillates +1.0 mn bblsGasoline +0.1 mn--This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API):It's a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are quite different. The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA):Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agenciesWhereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week's levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Major US stock indices close lower"So, what do you think is going to happen after the FOMC meeting?"Von Der Leyen: Had call with Trump on strengthening pressure on RussiaMark Carney's first budget as Canadian Prime Minister will be released Nov 4Wall Street Journal: The framework for the TikTok deal (still to be approved)Crude oil futures settle at $64.52Canadian RBC cardholder data shows that the consumer remains resilientWhite House extends deadline to sell TikTok until December 18thThe US treasury sells $13B of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.613%European indices fall sharply in trading todayAtlanta Fed GDP now growth estimate for third-quarter 3.4% versus 3.1% lastGold prices extends above $3700 to a new all-time highUS business inventories for July 0.2% versus 0.2% expectedNAHB housing market index for September 32 versus 33 estimateUS August industrial production +0.1% vs -0.1% expectedTrump says there is a deal on TikTokTrump says 'Fed needs to be independent' as he signs documents for MiranUS retail sales for August 0.6% versus 0.2% estimateUS import prices for August +0.3% vs -0.1% expectedCanada August CPI inflation 1.9% y/y vs 2.0% expectedThe USD is lower to start the US session with declines vs the EUR and CHF leadingCanada August housing starts 245.8K vs 277.5K expectedinvestingLive European FX news wrap: US dollar eases further, US indices reach new highsU.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in August, well above the 0.2% expected, with the prior month revised up to 0.6% from 0.5%. Ex-autos, sales gained 0.7% vs 0.4% forecast, while the control group — which feeds directly into GDP — also advanced 0.7% vs 0.4% expected, pointing to solid momentum in consumer spending. Ex-autos and gas, sales climbed 0.7% vs 0.3% prior, which was revised higher. Category gains included clothing (+1.0%), sporting goods/hobbies (+0.8%), and motor vehicle dealers (+0.5%), though some of the increase may reflect higher import prices. The strength in retail sales should support GDP tracking estimates. Today, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for Q3 rose to 3.4% from 3.1%. While the report is unlikely to alter tomorrow’s FOMC decision with the expectations of a 25 basis point cut in reaction to the weakness in recent jobs data, it could influence the debate among policymakers, particularly with new Fed Governor Miran potentially joining Bowman and Waller in pushing for a larger 50 bp cut (just because) . The focus tomorrow will be on the decision, the vote, and the expectations for rates going forward. Will the dot plot show 1 or 2 more rate cuts between now and the end of the year? What will the rate path look like in 2026. Of course market will also be interested in what Fed chair Powell has to say. Expectations are that he would prefer to not pre-commit – especially given the stronger retail sales data today and inflation that is still above the 2% target. Nevertheless, if the dissenters push, he may be inclined to allow their voice be heard through his if he feels the need to speak for the committee.In other economic data today Industrial production was not as positive. Industrial production in August edged up 0.1% vs -0.1% expected, with the prior month revised lower to -0.4% from -0.1%. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% vs -0.2% expected, while capacity utilization held steady at 77.4%, in line with forecasts. On a yearly basis, industrial production slowed to +0.87% from +1.27% previously, signaling modest growth but a clear loss of momentum compared to earlier in the year.The NAHB housing market index for September came in at 32 vs 33 expected, unchanged from the prior month. Current sales conditions held steady at 34, while buyer traffic slipped to 21 (-1), underscoring persistent weakness in demand. However, future sales expectations rose to 45 (+2), suggesting some optimism ahead of anticipated Fed rate cuts, which the NAHB expects to begin at tomorrow’s meeting.U.S. business inventories rose 0.2% in July, matching expectations and the prior month’s pace. Retail inventories ex-autos also increased 0.1%, steady with June. The inventories-to-sales ratio eased to 1.37 from 1.40 a year earlier, indicating slightly leaner stock levels relative to sales compared to last year.U.S. stocks opened higher with Oracle leading the charge on reports it could play a central role in a TikTok deal. Oracle shares surged to an intraday high of $319.97, but those outsized gains faded, mirroring the broader tech sector. The Nasdaq climbed as much as 48.75 points early on, before momentum reversed, dragging the index to a -40 point session low and ultimately closing down 14.79 points.Looking at the major indices, all close modestly lower:Dow industrial average fell -0.27%S&P index fell -0.13%NASDAQ index fell -0.07%Russell 2000 fell at -0.09%European shares did not fare as well relatively with the German DAX falling -1.77%, France's CAC -1.00%, Italy's FTSE MIB -1.28%, and Spain's Ibex -1.51%.The U.S. dollar came under broad pressure throughout the session, with several majors hitting significant technical milestones.EURUSD surged to fresh year-to-date highs at 1.1864, the strongest level since September 2024. Key close risk lies at 1.1829 (prior swing high), with a more conservative support marker at 1.1788 (July high).GBPUSD advanced toward a swing area from June/July between 1.3673–1.36826, though momentum stalled just shy at 1.3671 before easing back to 1.3649.USDCHF was the standout mover, dropping -1.07% and breaking the July 1 low at 0.78714, extending losses to the weakest level since 2011. A rebound above that prior low could trigger some short-covering if downside momentum falters.AUDUSD climbed into a swing zone at 0.6684–0.6694 and tested an upward sloping trendline near the same region. The pair peaked at 0.66874, dipped to 0.6679, and rebounded into the close.US yields are trading lower with the shorter end leading the way:2-year yield 3.509%, -2.6 basis points5 year yield 3.588%, -1.2 basis points10 year yield 4.029%, -0.4 basis points30 year yield 4.649%, -0.5 basis points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

We have data points arriving from:New ZealandJapanand Australiain that order. I'm not expecting too much market impact from any of these upon release. This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Major US stock indices closed marginally lower in what was an up-and-down trading session. Indices opened higher but then moved into negative territory ahead of the FOMC rate decision tomorrow. Intraday all-time highs were made in the S&P and NASDAQ indices (at 6626.99 and 22397.50 respectively).The NASDAQ 100 snapped a day 9-day win streak with a modest -0.08% loss. The NASDAQ composite index also fell modestly after rising 8 of the last 9 trading days.The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -0.27%S&P index -0.13%NASDAQ index -0.07%Russell 2000-0.09%Looking at the S&P components. Energy was the strongest, while utilities were the weakest. Looking at the 11 components, 5 were higher while 6 declined:Energy +1.74%Consumer Discretionary +0.82%Consumer Staples +0.24%Telecom Services +0.27%Health Care +0.03%Industrials -0.27%Technology -0.20%Materials -0.50%Financials -0.57%Real Estate -0.68%Utilities -1.81% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

FOMC Meetings: The Wrong Question Most Investors AskEvery time the Federal Reserve meets, the same question pops up across trading desks, social media feeds, and dinner tables: “What do you think is going to happen to the market after the FOMC?”It’s a natural question. It may be on most of our minds, if we want to or not. Markets often swing sharply after Powell and the Fed speak. But for most traders and investors, it’s actually the wrong question.Prediction vs. PreparationThe real question should be: “WHY am I asking this — and does it even matter to me?”Long-term investors: If you’re holding quality companies for the next five years, tomorrow’s FOMC volatility is noise. You didn’t sell during post-COVID dips, and you won’t change your long-term thesis because of a single policy statement. In that case, the right answer to “what will happen tomorrow?” is: Who cares?Short-term traders: If you’re actively trading, the FOMC does matter — but not in the way most people think. What matters is not your prediction, but your plan: What will I do if the market spikes? What if it dumps? What if it barely moves? You need to better ask how it might affect you, and answer what you want to do about it, REGARDLESS OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN.Decisions Over PredictionsMarkets punish overconfidence. Even if you think you know what’s coming, risk management is what keeps you in the game.Example: You’re up 100% in a stock ahead of earnings. You still believe in it long-term, but you trim 15% to lock gains and prepare for a possible dip. If it rallies, you still hold 85%. If it sells off, you’ve secured profits and set yourself up to buy lower.The question isn’t whether you can guess correctly. The question is whether your decisions hold up no matter what the outcome is. The question is why and how the event matters to you, your strategy, and what you can do about it to improve your situation ahead of time. The what will happen will not matter, in the long run. It should even out, as your decisions become more optimized. So, do you want to sell that stock before tommorrow FOMC or not, and how much? That is the better question and only you can answer it, even if others make their wise opinions. The beginning of investing wisdom is knowing which questions to ask, more than answering the right answers to lesser questions (where you can answer correctly and "win" or answer incorrectly and "lose".. but with risk mitigation you can position yourself to always win, in the long term). Risk First, Opportunity SecondBig events like the FOMC are volatility triggers, not free lottery tickets. Smart investors first ask: What’s the worst-case scenario for my current exposure? How will I respond if it happens? Only after protecting risk does it make sense to look for new opportunities once the dust settles. So what will happen after the FOMC meeting tommorrow? Who knows, who cares. What matters is why you're asking.Visit investingLive.com (formerly ForexLive.com) for additional views. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

European Commissioner Pres. Von Der Leyen had a conversation with Pres. Trump to discuss:Joint efforts to increase economic pressure on Russia through additional measures.EU Commissioner will proposed speeding up the phase out of Russian fossil importsEarlier today Pres. Trump said that Ukraine's Zelenskyy would need to make a deal to end the war. He also said that he may need to get involved with the negotiations between the 2 warring presidents This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Mark Carney's first budget as prime minister will be released November 4. It was hinted for October but it's now scheduled for November 4. Finance Minister Champagne made the announcement in the House of Commons.This is likely to be the most-significant budget in many years, as Carney tries to chart a course away from the United States and encourage nation-building projects. Some of the measures around home building have already been floated and I would expect more leaks in the weeks to come. Critical will be tax policy, which is less likely to leak but will have a big impact on bonds and the Canadian dollar. Carney already announced a tax cut on income below $58,000 to 14% from 15% which is probably all for regular tax payers but corporate rates could be lowered in response to US tax cuts.Economists see a deficit of around C$70 billion this year, a big jump from $40 billion forecast in January, in large part due to the US trade war. Carney has been trying to draw a line between the operating deficit and deficits driven by short-term investment spending in things like ports, railways and nation-building projects. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Wall Street Journal has been given the framework for the TikTok deal. Here are the details: Structure of the DealNew U.S. entity: TikTok’s U.S. operations would be spun into a new company.Ownership: U.S. investors—including Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz—would control ~80%, with Chinese shareholders holding the remainder.Board: Majority American-dominated, with one seat designated by the U.S. government.Technology & DataAlgorithms: Re-created by a U.S.-based engineering team, using technology licensed from ByteDance.Data security: Oracle to manage U.S. user data at facilities in Texas.Chinese concessions: Beijing agreed to allow licensing of TikTok’s algorithm and related IP.Transition for UsersExisting U.S. TikTok users would migrate to a new app being built and tested.Political ContextTalks in Madrid produced the framework.Trump confirmed: “We’ve got a deal on TikTok. I’ll speak to Xi on Friday to confirm.”Beijing pushing for a Trump visit to China later this year.Negotiations trace back to January 2025, tied to a U.S. law signed in 2024 requiring TikTok to restructure or leave the market.Investor BreakdownU.S.-based investors include Oracle, Silver Lake, Andreessen Horowitz, and existing ByteDance investors like Susquehanna International, KKR, and General Atlantic.ByteDance’s Chinese shareholder stake drops below 20%, meeting U.S. legal requirements.Remaining IssuesNational security: U.S. and Chinese officials still wary of potential influence over algorithms and user data.Scrutiny: Final details subject to approval in both capitals.✅ Summary in one line: TikTok’s U.S. business will be spun into a new Oracle-led consortium with 80% U.S. ownership, American-controlled governance, licensed algorithms, and Oracle-managed data in Texas, with final terms awaiting Trump–Xi confirmation.Shares of Oracle are currently trading up $1.30 or 0.48% at $303.46 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling up $1.22 or 1.93% at $64.52.Looking at the daily chart above, the price rise at the end of the day has taken the price back above its 100-day moving average at $64.32. Getting and staying above that moving average tilts the bias more positive. The price still remains below the 50% of the range since the April low at $66.36. The price is also below the falling 200-day moving average at $67.01. Getting above both those levels would add more bullishness to oil from a technical perspective. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

I have been keeping an eye on RBC cardholder spending data for the past couple years and it's an increasingly-useful and timely measure of Canadian retail sales. The latest version is just out and it paints a mixed picture. Core sales rose a solid 0.4% m/m in August but the headline fell 2.2% m/m. Dragging down the headline was s dip in gasoline prices.Spending on clothing along with the 'arts and entertainment' categories accelerated while the 'household and construction' category softened slightly. Spending at grocery stores has been largely flat since May.RBC economist Rachel Battaglia focused on the rise in core sales."This trend aligns with our broader economic outlook . We believe Canada’s economy will resume slow, but positive, GDP growth after a Q2 decline with relatively resilient consumer spending offsetting persistent headwinds in the industrial sector," she wrote.On net, I take this data as a solid indication for the loonie. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The White House says they will kick the TikTok can down the road- again (the deadline has now been extended 4 times). The deadline to sell has now been extended to December 18th. The most recent "can kicking" was to expire tomorrow. Nevertheless, the framework for a deal is apparently known. The details are not known.Oracle is seen as the frontrunner to acquire TikTok, with investors betting the deal could diversify revenue beyond its AI business. It was hoped that final details would be made between Trump and Xi when they speak on Friday. We will see if this announcement means the framework has fallen apart. Shares of Oracle are still up $3.20 at $305.25 but that is well off the intraday high at $319.97 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.