Australia’s jobs report: What the latest numbers meanAustralia’s labour market softened in August, with the economy losing 5,400 jobs compared with July. Despite the fall in employment, the unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.2%.How is that possible? It comes down to the participation rate, which measures how many people are either working or actively looking for work. In August, the participation rate fell slightly from 67.0% to 66.8%. That means fewer people were counted as being in the labour force, which helped keep the unemployment rate from rising.In simple terms, fewer jobs were available, but because a smaller share of the population was looking for work, the jobless rate didn’t move higher.Why does this matter? Economists and the Reserve Bank of Australia watch these numbers closely to judge the health of the economy. A steady unemployment rate suggests the labour market is holding up, but the dip in participation shows some people may be stepping back from looking for work, which can be a warning sign if the trend continues.---Earlier:Australia August 2025 jobless rate 4.2% (vs. 4.2% expected)AUD/USD has been marked down following the disappointing job loss numbers in August---Unemployment rate: The percentage of people in the labour force who are not employed but are actively looking for work. Participation rate: The share of the working-age population that is either employed or actively seeking employment. Labour force: Everyone who is working or looking for work — it excludes those who aren’t seeking jobs (like full-time students or retirees). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management expects the Federal Reserve to extend its easing cycle with quarter-point cuts in both October and December, following Wednesday’s reduction. The firm said the skew of the Fed’s dot plot points to a steady pace of easing, underscoring policymakers’ confidence that inflation is trending lower and that growth risks are rising.In Goldman’s view, only a sharp upside surprise in inflation or a sudden rebound in labour market strength would derail the Fed from delivering those additional cuts. Absent such shocks, the Fed appears committed to a gradual loosening path designed to balance inflation control with support for the economy.The firm highlighted that the FOMC’s risk management framework now leans toward caution, with the majority of members signalling that policy should continue to shift toward less restrictive settings. That, it said, suggests further rate relief into year-end is the base case.Goldman Sachs sees further Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cuts in 2026, another two. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The data is here:Australia August 2025 jobless rate 4.2% (vs. 4.2% expected)While that headline look fine, it's the loss of jobs, 5.4K vs. the gain of 22K that was expected, along with the big losses in fulltime jobs, down 40.9K that has taken a toll on the Australian dollar. It's a very weak employment report. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian labour market reportUnemployment Rate 4.2%expected 4.2%, prior 4.2% Employment Change -5.4K, a poor resultexpected 22.0K, prior 24.5KParticipation Rate 66.8%, lower participation has prevented the jopbless rate from risingexpected 67%, prior 67% Part-Time Employment +35.5Kprior -35.9K Full-Time Employment -40.9K, terrible number prior 60.5K While the headline jobless rate is unchanged, the alternative headline, job losses vs. a gain expected, is bad news. Its compounded by the big full time losses. Not a good bunch of figures. These will ignite thoughts of a nearer term Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut, at the margin.AUD/USD fell on the data, back under 0.6640. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.Previous close was 7.1057PBOC injected 487bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%net 195bn yuan injection This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

At Meta Connect 2025, Mark Zuckerberg unveiled the company’s new Meta Ray-Ban Display smart glasses, a next-generation wearable that blends a camera with a built-in display to deliver true augmented reality. The $799 device, available from September 30 in black or sand with transition lenses, is being positioned as Meta’s answer to the long-defunct Google Glass.The glasses pair with a neural link wristband that converts subtle muscle movements into controls — rotating your wrist to adjust music volume or tapping your fingers to compose a text. While Zuckerberg demonstrated the functions live, not all features ran smoothly, with the system failing to register a WhatsApp call command. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The data from New Zealand was very disappointing indeed:New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.9% q/q (vs. -0.3% expected)-0.9% is three times worse than what was expected.Its prompted forecasts for more interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Westpac tipping 75cp soon:Westpac forecasts Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cuts in October and NovemberNZD/USD extending down towards 0.5920. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Westpac now expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to step up its easing cycle, forecasting the Official Cash Rate will be lowered to 2.5% at the October meeting and then cut again to 2.25% in November.50bp cut followed by a 25bp cut The bank said the RBNZ faces mounting pressure to loosen policy more aggressively as growth slows and inflation moderates, leaving scope for back-to-back moves before year-end.This comes after the terrible data earlier:New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.9% q/q (vs. -0.3% expected) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. How the process works:Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value.--Th rate cut from the Fed trims the rate gap between the dollar and the yuan. At the margin this is bearish for USD/CNY. Shorts have built in the dollar, so there is that to contend with. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan core machine orders data for July 2025. These data are a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months. It's a volatile data set.-4.6% m/mexpected -1.7%, prior 3.0%+4.9% y/yexpected +5.4%, prior +7.6%The y/y headline flattered the data, that m/m is terrible. -The Bank of Japan statement is due tomorrow, on hold is expected:Bank of Japan meeting begins today, rates expected to kept on hold - Nikkei report This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

DoubleLine CIO Jeff Gundlach was on CNBC after the Fed decision (which he called the right one) and touched on gold prices, which hit $3700 for the first time today.He noted that gold is up over 100% in the past two years and 45% year-to-date, a move he called 'ridiculous'."Now even the gold miners are getting involved, which suggests to me that retail investors are starting to join the momentum trade on the gold market," he said.Gundlach noted that he's been a gold bull and predicted $4000 earlier this year. He took it a step further today and touted another $340 gain, from current levels, or about 9.2%."I think almost certainly gold will close above $4,000 by the end of this year," he said.Gundlach also hinted at a big part of the reason that gold is up and the US dollar is down this year. The job interview at the Trump administration for Fed chair candidates is: "Will you do what I tell you to do?", he said. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It looks like consumer was stronger than expected this weekIt's really the risks to the labor market that were the focus of today's decisionI think this is notable because he's not raising alarm bells on jobs so far and if that's the case, a couple solid jobs reports could take the December cut right off the table.Households and banks are in good shape overallFinancial structural vulnerabilities are not elevated right nowInflation surveys have been 'rock solid' This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The market did not want to hear that today's cut was a 'risk management cut' which is how Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterized it. The market is pining for another 150 bps this year a next. With Powell not offering up a dovish stance, there is some rapid profit taking hitting.The S&P 500 is bouncing around but currently down 28 points. We are also seeing a total reversal in the initial US dollar selling and gold buying. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Labor market changes are mostly from immigration changesChanges in employment are much more about immigration changes"I don't think we can say" that policy no longer warrants a restrictive policy settingWe were right to wait previouslyNo widespread support for 50 bps todayChange in balance of risks suggests need to move in direction of neutralYou can think of this as a risk-management cutThe market hasn't liked the lack of clear dovish signals. There is a big turn lower in the S&P 500, now down 34 points, or 0.5%.The risks of higher inflation are 'a little bit less' than they were in AprilIn the labor market, we're seeing downside risksWe are in a meeting-by-meeting stance, we are going to be looking at the dataHighlights that the forecasts aren't a consensus forecastWe have 10 participants who wrote down 2 more cuts for the rest of the year and 9 saw less than thatInappropriate to comment on Cook's court castThe benchmark revisions to non-farm payrolls 'were almost exactly what we expected'I'm not blessing what the market is pricing in at allTariffs are mostly being paid by companies that sit in between the exporter and the consumerThe companies in that spot say they have every intention of passing that onto the consumerAsked about whether he will leave in May says "I have nothing new" This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Slowdown largely reflects slowing consumer spendingBusiness investment has acceleratedDisinflation on services is continuingJob gains are running below the breakeven rateLabor demand has softenedA reasonable expectation is that tariffs will be short-lived but it's also possible that tariff effects could be more-persistentOur aim is to make sure that a one-time shift doesn't become an ongoing problemBalance of risks have shifted with downside risks rising to employmentWe took another step towards neutralWe remain positioned to respond in a timely wayThe initial dovish moves in markets have largely faded and the US dollar is back to pre-decision levels. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

At first blush, the stock market is unimpressed with the Federal Reserve decision. The S&P 500 is trading down 2 points on the day compared to 7 points beforehand.However it's the smaller cap stocks that a really cheering a dot plot median forecast that shows two more cuts this year compared to one more previously. The Russell 2000 is now up 1.7% on the day.The jump brings the Russell 2000 to the highest since November 2024 and just a shade below the all-time highs. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Fed Funds target at year end:2025: 3.675% vs expected 3.875%, prior 3.875%2026: 3.375% vs expected 3.375%, prior 3.625%2027: 3.125% vs expected 3.125%, prior 3.375%2028: 3.125% vs expected 3.125% (first forecast)Longer run: vs expected 3.125%, prior 3.00%The notable shift in this year's forecast is key to the market reaction, which was dovish. The market is now pricing in 47 bps in easing this year vs 41.9 before the decision. Further out the curve, there is now 108 bps of easing priced in by next July vs 100 bps before hand.PCE headline inflation2025: 3.0% vs expected 3.0%, prior 3.0%2026: 2.6% vs expected 2.4%, prior 2.4%2027: 2.1% vs expected 2.1%, prior 2.1%2028: 2.0% vs expected 2.0% (first forecast)Longer run: 2.0% s expected 2.0%, prior 2.0%Core PCE2025: 3.1% vs expected 3.1%, prior 3.1%2026: 2.6% vs expected 2.6%, prior 2.4%2027: 2.1% vs expected 2.3%, prior 2.1%2028: 2.0% vs expected 2.2% (first forecast)The Fed highlighted rising inflation in the statement but the median dots don't show that this year or beyond.GDP growth2025: 1.6% vs expected 1.4%, prior 1.4%2026: 1.8% vs expected 1.6%, prior 1.6%2027: 1.9% vs expected 1.8%, prior 1.8%2028: 1.8% vs expected 1.8% (first forecast)Longer run: 1.8% vs expected 1.8%, prior 1.8%.This is an upbeat forecast that highlights some resilience in consumer spending.Unemployment rate2025: 4.5% vs expected 4.5%, prior 4.5%2026: 4.4% vs expected 4.5%, prior 4.5%2027: 4.3% vs expected 4.4%, prior 4.4%2028: 4.2% vs expected 4.2% (first forecast)Longer run: 4.2% vs expected 4.2%, prior 4.2%The Fed is showing some confidence in its ability to stop the bleeding the jobs market but history shows that when layoff start, they're tough to reverse. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

In regard to Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4‑1/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; Jeffrey R. Schmid; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting.----------------------------------Looking at the projections for GDP, unemployment, PCE and the future rate path, the Fed analyses an additional 25 basis point cut between now and the end of the year. The projection 1 from 3.9% to 3.6%. In 2026 they see the projected rate at the end of year to be 3.4% down from 3.6%.In regard to GDP, unemployment, and PCE inflation GDP, they see higher GDP in 2025 in 2026. They see GDP at 1.6% at the end of 2025 and 1.8% at the end of 2026. Each are up 0.2% from the projections in June.Unemployment rate they see unchanged at 4.5% in 2025 (compared to June,), and 4.4% at the end of 2026 down from 4.5% in June.PCE inflation they see remaining steady at 3% at the end of 2025 but rising to 2.6% by the end of 2026 (from 2.4%). Core PCE they see steady at 3.1% at the end of 2025 and a rise to 2.6% from 2.4% in 2026For inflation they don't see inflation returning to 2% cents until 2028 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior range was 4.25-4.50%Miran voted for 50 bpsNo other dissentsRepeats that activity moderated in the first halfAdds that 'job gains have slowed' and removes that unemployment 'remains low' to say it 'edged'Fed median forecast shows two more cuts this year but end-2026 and beyond forecasts unchangedStatement says 'inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated' vs 'inflation remains somewhat elevated' priorThe lack of other dissents is partly notable as Weller or Bowman could have stepped out along with Miran. It sends a message of unity aside from Miran, which isn't a surprise.Ahead of the decision, the market was fully priced for a 25 bps cut with just a 3% implied chance of a 50 bps surprise. For October, the market was priced at 79% for a second 25 bps cut and for year end, 66.9 bps in total easing was priced in. Looking deeper out the curve, a full 125 bps was priced in at the July 2026 meeting.USD/JPY was trading at 146.29 ahead of the decision, 2-year yields were at 3.543% and 30s were at 4.65%. The S&P 500 was trading down 7 points to 6599, gold was at $3689 and bitcoin was at $116,092.Immediately after the decision, USD/JPY has fallen to 145.65, two year yields are down to 3.476% and 30s are at 4.61%. The S&P 500 is now down 2 points to 6603 after an initial pop faded, gold touched a record $3700 for the first time and bitcoin has dipped to $115,877. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

A meeting by meeting basis has proven successful.With the current monetary policy stance ECB is well positioned to respond to unexpected changes.In contrast to growth effects of the US tariffs, the price effects in the euro area are less clear. Overall tariffs could even have a slightly inflation dampening effect through the effects on exchange rates.Will the Fed cut and signal a meeting by meeting path forward? The market is expecting more.Meanwhile, Jamie Dimon thinks the Fed should be independent and expects them to cut rates. He has been calling for slower growth. US stocks remain mixed with the Dow industrial average up 0.49%. The S&P down -0.13% and the NASDAQ index down -0.39%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.