I am looking at Etherum via the Ether futures chart looks like a market that is trying to stabilize and mean-revert after a very volatile March.In plain English, ETH had a strong upside push, failed to hold the higher prices, and is now rotating back toward the area where the market has done the most business. That is often what a mean-reversion phase looks like. Price is no longer in a clean impulsive uptrend, but it is also not collapsing. It is searching for balance.Ethereum price structure explainedETH is trading around $2,054, which is a respectable bounce, but the larger structure still shows some technical damage from the failed rally into the $2,390 area. That push higher was rejected, and since then the market has been unable to fully reclaim the more important overhead levels.The main resistance levels on my chart above are still $2,156.5 and $2,209.5. These acted as important ceilings during March. For bulls, that is the area that needs to be retaken and then held. Until that happens, the recent recovery is better described as a bounce inside a broader rebalancing process rather than a confirmed new uptrend.On the downside, the chart shows a very important lower framework around $1,980, then $1,914, then the March swing low near $1,803.5. If the market were to lose those levels in sequence, the deeper floor near $1,748.5 would come back into view.Ethereum technical analysis today: Volume profile and market balanceThe visible profile on the left has a fairly D-shaped look, which is often associated with a more balanced market. Educationally, that matters because a D-shape usually tells you the market is spending time agreeing on value, not trending aggressively away from it.The heaviest trading seems concentrated roughly between $1,950 and $2,080, which helps explain why price is currently gravitating back into that zone. This is where the market has memory. When price is inside that thick part of the profile, it often chops, rotates, and tests both sides before choosing its next directional move.That also fits with the idea of stabilization. ETH is no longer in the fast upside auction that carried it toward $2,390. It is now back near its more accepted value area.An important educational point here is the thinner volume zone above roughly $2,210. Thin areas tend to mean less historical friction. So if ETH can reclaim and hold above the nearby resistance, price can sometimes travel faster through those zones because there is less prior trade there to slow it down. That is why a successful break above $2,156.5 and especially $2,209.5 could open the way back toward $2,390 to $2,405.The technical analysis educational corner: Mean reversion and why it mattersMean reversion does not automatically mean bullish. It simply means the market is moving back toward its central value area after becoming stretched.That is a useful lens for this chart. ETH sold off from the highs, found support, and is now trying to hold around the area where the market has previously accepted price. In technical analysis terms, the current question is whether this is only a temporary return to fair value before another leg lower, or the early stage of a more durable base.Ether's forward curve and broader contextThe forward curve shown on the right is in contango, with later-dated ETH futures priced above the nearer contract. Educationally, contango usually suggests the market is willing to price somewhat higher levels in the future (which is typically "healthy" for the bullish case). It often reflects carry, time, and a market that is not pricing long-term stress as severely as the short-term chart may imply.That said, contango is not the same thing as immediate bullish momentum. The short-term chart still matters. ETH remains below the March highs, and the failure to sustain the move above the mid-March resistance zone leaves a lower-high style structure in place until proven otherwise.Practical reading of the chartA simple way to frame the chart is this:$1,980 is the key pivot and balance area$2,156.5 to $2,209.5 is the overhead gate bulls need to reclaim$1,914 is the next important support if the bounce fadesSo the educational takeaway is:If ETH can continue to hold above the high-volume middle of the range (advanced tip: Watch $2118 in Ether futures, above that, bulls are good... And give it some time to see it's not a "fakie") then the chart starts to shift from stabilization into recovery. If the bounce stalls again under resistance and slips back through the pivot zone, then the market is probably not done testing lower support.In practical terms, this is a chart of rebalancing after failed upside expansion, with the next directional clue likely coming from how price behaves around $1,980 on the downside and $2,156.5 to $2,209.5 on the upside. In between? Remember the key level of $2118 and watch it for guidance, IMHO.Ethereum technical analysis today: What to does the order flow tell us?Prediction Score: +6Score context: On a scale from -10 to +10, a +6 reflects a clear bullish bias with solid conviction, but not an extreme or one-sided setup.After I checked the order flow at Ether futures, the analysis shows that this week opened with a bullish tone in ETH futures.The main reason is that the order flow picture points to buyers gaining the upper hand early and then maintaining that advantage instead of fading quickly. In our heavier internal read of the opening sequence, the important takeaway is that buying pressure was not isolated to just one brief push. It showed enough follow-through to suggest a firmer opening tone.A few things stood out:Delta stayed constructive overall, with several positive pushes that helped confirm buyer control rather than a weak or easily rejected bounce.POC shifted higher and then held there, which is an important clue that the market was willing to do business at stronger prices instead of immediately rotating back down.The opening sequence also showed a healthier pattern of participation, with buyers repeatedly stepping in after minor interruptions rather than losing control of the tape.That combination is why the tone leans bullish. It is not just about one strong bar. It is about the quality of the opening sequence and the fact that price discovery appeared to stabilize at firmer levels.The cautious counterpoint is that an opening can look strong and still lose momentum later. So this is not an automatic call for nonstop continuation. But based on the order flow evidence from the completed opening block, the balance of evidence still supports a moderately strong bullish read.Bottom line for this week's opening order flow at Ethereum:ETH futures opened the week with a bullish tone, supported by constructive delta behavior and a higher, stable POC. Our orderFlow Intel analysis at investingLive.com suggests buyers did enough early on to justify a +6 bullish score, while still leaving room for later confirmation. Visit investingLive.com for additional, original views.Ethereum Today: Beware of the News. Here are the highlights I am looking atThe Fed Factor (Liquidity Watch)Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech later today. Crypto thrives on liquidity; a dovish tone could spark a "risk-on" rally, while hawkish rhetoric will likely trigger a "risk-off" retreat to the US Dollar.Geopolitical Chaos (Inflation & Uncertainty)The Middle East is flashing confusing signals. President Trump claims Iran negotiations are going "extremely well", but physical escalation tells a different story. Following Tehran blackouts, Trump is now targeting Iran's oil. This threatens an inflationary energy shock that could force the Fed to keep rates high. Meanwhile, the conflict is widening, with Israel intercepting drones from Yemen's Houthis.The Crypto Takeaway: Correlated Asset or Digital Gold?These converging events will test crypto's narrative:Risk-Off: If oil spikes from the Middle East conflict and Powell remains hawkish, expect crypto to dump alongside traditional equities as liquidity dries up.Decoupling/Hedge: If Bitcoin catches a bid as a "safe haven" against fiat instability and wartime inflation, crypto could ignore the macro chaos entirely and break upward.Last, a power tip from investingLive.com to our crypto community: Watch the DXY (Dollar Index) during Powell's speech. A surging dollar spells trouble, but a softening dollar amid the geopolitical noise is the green light crypto bulls are waiting for.Remember: No one has a crystal ball and markets can change. Do not take the above Ethereum technical analysis as any promise and you must always do your own research and if you trade or invest, do that that at your own risk only. The above is for educational purposes only. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

It is that time of the month again and the weekend break sort of splits the momentum in closing out March trading this time around. It leaves the last two days of the month to work with, before we transition to April in the middle of the week. That's not quite a clean look and feel to things but it is what it is.As we get into the new week, month-end flows will be a consideration in the sessions ahead. And seeing what analysts are saying, dollar buying looks to be what most are pointing to this time around.Credit Agricole notes that their month-end fixing model is pointing to "moderate" bids in the dollar against the rest of the major currencies bloc."The moves in equity markets, when adjusted for market capitalisation and FX performance this month, suggest that month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be moderate USD buying across the board with the strongest buy signal in the case of the USD vs the NOK."To pair with that, Barclays is also suggesting a similar read as we look to this month-end. The firm notes that there should be "strong" dollar buying this time around for the most part."Our passive month-end and quarter-end rebalancing model shows strong USD buying against most majors, and moderate buying against the EUR, JPY, and GBP."While these flows can be spread out across the span of a few days, just be wary that month-end shenanigans can and tend to also hit closer to the London fix. So, that will be one to watch out for in the coming two days.The dollar itself had already been trading firmer last week, rebounding well after the Monday drop to post a solid weekly advance. Do keep that in mind as well with some key levels on the charts also in play, not least with USD/JPY testing the waters at the 160.00 level. And that could also invite intervention from Tokyo if they see fit. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

US markets will offer some pretty interesting stuff on the calendar this week. As we transition from March to April, the labour market data will come back into the picture this week. That will keep markets on edge, having already to watch for the happenings in the Middle East still.But to start things off, Fed chair Powell will also be making an appearance later today. And that will be the most notable item on the agenda, besides keeping an eye out for US-Iran headline risks.Powell is set to participate in a moderated discussions at the Harvard University principles of economics class. The session is one that is typically part of the university's introductory economics curriculum. While there isn't a clear topic, one can expect Powell to cover a wide range of things from the economy to inflation and monetary policy.I'm quite sure that he will sidestep any questions involving the politicisation of the Fed and what not. That being said, one can reasonably expect US president Trump to snap at Powell again after this engagement. That especially if we hear comments about the Fed wanting to pause on rates and keep their options open amid the situation in the Middle East.The funny thing is that it will be Trump's own doing that is leading to this scenario. Yet, you can be assured that he will still lay blame to Powell for not cutting interest rates.The Fed chair is scheduled to speak at 1430 GMT. So, that will be the highlight of the agenda today. That as it will be a quiet one in Europe as well as a holiday-shortened one. The Easter holidays are coming soon and that markets in Europe will be closed by the end of the week in observance of Good Friday and then Easter Monday the following week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Israel may invite U.S. to relocate Middle East bases after warTrump touts destruction in Iran, Ackman looks forward to a whopping victory dividendAustralia to cut taxes on petrol and diesel use as part of National 'Fuel Security' planReserve Bank of India FX intervention move after hours on Friday. INR chaos day ahead?PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9223 (expected was 6.9205)Japan signals readiness for FX intervention. Yen weakened past 160, has since had a bounceBank of Japan Governor Ueda says will closely watch FX moves (USD/JPY drops)After Tehran had weekend blackouts (strike hits) Trump ups the ante: wants Iran's oilTrump says negotiations with Iran going extremely well, might get a deal soon, or notBoJ leans toward further hikes but flags oil-driven stagflation risksTrump says US could take the oil in Iran (via Financial Times)Bond managers warn markets underestimate growth risks from Iran warVilleroy says ECB ready to act, but too early to discuss timing of any rate hikeUSD is higher at the start of the new weekIsrael intercepts Yemen drones as Houthis expand role in warOil trade has begun for the week - prices higherU.S. allows Russian oil shipment to Cuba amid global energy disruptionsMorgan Stanley warns Australia faces diesel supply shock and growth risksWhere the warmakers are at: US-Iran talks uncertain, military buildup and mistrust deepenNewsquawk Week In Focus: US NFP, ISMs and Retail Sales, EZ CPI, RBA Mins, and BoJ TankanPakistan says it will host US-Iran talks in coming days as more US Marines head to regionMonday open indicative forex prices, 30 March 2026US sends more signals that troop deployments coming. Rubio hints at endgamePrediction markets are no longer just getting faster than traditional coverageTrump jokes about Hormuz as war drags on, markets slide and NATO doubts resurfaceIn brief:Middle East tensions remain elevated with Houthi missile/drone attacks on Israel and Israeli strikes causing temporary blackouts in Tehran U.S. continues military build-up, including Special Forces, as planning for potential ground operations progresses Pakistan to host U.S.-Iran talks, while Trump signals mixed messaging: progress in negotiations but escalation options remain Oil opened higher but pared gains, reflecting ongoing uncertainty around Hormuz flows BoJ maintains tightening bias, while Japan ramps up FX intervention rhetoric, helping push USD/JPY lower RBI FX caps provide modest INR support via forced positioning adjustment Australia cuts fuel taxes despite growing supply shortage risks, raising policy questionsGeopolitical developments continue to dominate the macro backdrop to start the week, with the Middle East conflict showing further signs of regional expansion.Over the weekend, Iranian-backed Houthis launched missile and drone attacks toward Israel, marking a widening of the conflict footprint. At the same time, Israeli strikes reportedly caused temporary power outages across Tehran and surrounding areas, highlighting the ongoing intensity of the campaign.On the U.S. side, the military build-up in the region continued. Several hundred Special Operations Forces, including Army Rangers and Navy SEALs, have been deployed alongside thousands of Marines and 82nd Airborne troops. According to U.S. officials, this positioning is aimed at providing President Trump with additional optionality, including the potential for ground operations.Diplomatically, Pakistan said it will host U.S.-Iran talks in the coming days. However, messaging from Washington remains mixed. President Trump said negotiations are progressing through both direct and indirect channels and could yield a deal soon, while also cautioning that no agreement is guaranteed. He added that Iran has allowed 20 oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting some limited easing in flows. At the same time, Trump reiterated that the U.S. could seize Iranian oil infrastructure, including Kharg Island, underscoring that escalation risks remain firmly in play.Oil prices opened higher but have since edged lower, reflecting this push-pull between de-escalation hopes and ongoing risks.In Asia, the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions reinforced a gradual tightening bias, with policymakers open to further rate hikes if conditions allow. However, caution remains due to Middle East uncertainty and rising oil prices, with some members flagging stagflation risks.Japan also stepped up FX rhetoric. Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura warned that “decisive” action could be taken against speculative currency moves, marking a clear escalation in intervention signalling. This was reinforced by Governor Kazuo Ueda, who emphasised the growing importance of FX in shaping inflation. While not explicit intervention, the tone shift from Ueda helped push USD/JPY lower from near 160.50 to below 160, trading around 159.75 at the time of writing.Elsewhere, the Indian rupee firmed slightly after the Reserve Bank of India imposed new FX position caps after Friday’s close. The move forces banks to reduce short INR positions, providing near-term currency support and signalling a more active defensive stance from policymakers.In Australia, the government announced a cut to fuel taxes in response to rising prices. However, the policy raises questions given the growing risk of diesel shortages. While lower taxes may reduce prices and boost consumption, they do little to address supply constraints and may, at the margin, exacerbate the imbalance between demand and available fuel. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Israel is reportedly considering inviting the U.S. to relocate and expand military bases in the country after the war, signalling a potential long-term shift in regional military positioning, though the plan remains unconfirmed.Summary:Israel is reportedly planning to invite the U.S. to relocate regional bases and build new ones post-war, per Channel 12. Proposal aims to reshape U.S. military positioning across the Middle East. Israeli officials argue expanded U.S. presence would deliver operational and intelligence advantages. Would mark a significant strategic shift in U.S. basing, concentrating assets in Israel. Report is based on unnamed sources and remains unconfirmed by Washington.Israel is reportedly preparing to propose a major realignment of U.S. military positioning in the Middle East, with plans to invite Washington to relocate some of its regional bases to Israeli territory and establish additional permanent facilities after the current conflict ends.According to Israeli broadcaster Channel 12, citing unnamed security sources, the proposal is being framed internally as an opportunity to “reshape the map” of U.S. military deployment in West Asia. The move would reflect both the evolving regional security environment and Israel’s assessment of its own strategic value as a key U.S. ally during the ongoing conflict.Israeli officials cited in the report argue that the war has reinforced the country’s role as a central operational and intelligence partner for the United States. Expanding the U.S. military footprint in Israel, they suggest, would enhance both deterrence and responsiveness, while providing logistical and intelligence advantages in a region facing heightened instability.Such a shift, if pursued, would represent a notable change in U.S. basing strategy. American forces are currently distributed across multiple locations in the Gulf and broader Middle East, allowing for geographic flexibility and risk diversification. A greater concentration of assets in Israel could signal a recalibration toward a more centralised posture, potentially reflecting both operational efficiencies and shifting alliance dynamics.However, the proposal remains at an early stage and has not been confirmed by U.S. officials. Any decision to relocate or expand bases would carry significant political and strategic considerations, including regional sensitivities, host-nation agreements, and the broader implications for U.S. relationships with Gulf partners.From a market and geopolitical perspective, the report underscores how the current conflict may have longer-term structural consequences beyond immediate military developments. While still speculative, it points to the possibility of a more entrenched U.S. presence in Israel and a reconfiguration of regional security architecture.For now, the key takeaway is that the war is not only reshaping near-term risk dynamics but may also be laying the groundwork for longer-term strategic shifts in how the U.S. projects power in the region. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Donald Trump claims major military success in Iran, but provides no verifiable detail on targets or impact. Bill Ackman frames the war as one-sided and bullish for equities, urging investors to “buy quality.” Both messages lean heavily on confidence and narrative, not confirmed data. History suggests early war claims are often overstated or incomplete. Markets typically demand independent verification and sustained de-escalation before repricing risk.Two near-simultaneous messages from Donald Trump and Bill Ackman offer a strikingly optimistic framing of the Iran conflict, but both warrant a cautious reading from a market perspective.Trump declared that “many long sought after targets” in Iran had been destroyed, praising U.S. military effectiveness. However, the statement lacks specificity, no detail on which targets were hit, the strategic significance of those strikes, or any independent confirmation of their success. In past conflicts, initial claims of decisive gains have often been revised as more information becomes available. Without corroboration from defence officials, satellite imagery, or third-party reporting, such statements should be treated as provisional.Ackman’s remarks extend the optimism into markets, arguing that the conflict is highly one-sided and likely to deliver a “peace dividend,” making it an attractive entry point for equities. While this reflects a classic contrarian or pro-risk stance, it assumes a relatively quick and favourable resolution to the conflict, an outcome that remains uncertain. Wars involving multiple regional actors, asymmetric responses, and critical infrastructure risks rarely follow linear paths.There is also a timing question. Markets are currently grappling with elevated oil prices, disrupted shipping flows, and tightening financial conditions. These are typically headwinds for growth and risk assets in the near term, even if a longer-term resolution eventually proves supportive.The key issue is not whether either view is ultimately correct, but whether there is sufficient evidence at this stage to justify such conviction. For now, the balance of information remains incomplete. Military developments are fluid, diplomatic signals are mixed, and the risk of escalation—including broader regional involvement—remains present.In that context, both statements can be seen as narrative-setting rather than data-confirming. Markets tend to be more cautious, requiring confirmation through sustained changes in energy flows, geopolitical stability, and policy responses before fully embracing a bullish “peace dividend” scenario.Ack. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian Prime Minister Albanese has announced that the National Cabinet meeting today adopted a National Fuel Security Plan.Among the measures:Government will halve the fuel excise on petrol and diesel for three monthsWill reduce the heavy vehicle road user charge to zero for three monthsI am probably going to be the most hated person in Australia for pointing this out, but here goes:A reduction in taxes on a good will, all else equal, tend to increase demand for that good by lowering the price consumers pay. Taxes effectively act as a wedge between what producers receive and what consumers pay. When that wedge is reduced, the final price typically falls, encouraging higher consumption.In economic terms, this results in a movement along the demand curve rather than a shift of the curve itself. As prices decline, consumers are willing and able to purchase more of the good, leading to an increase in quantity demanded. The magnitude of this response depends on price elasticity. Goods with elastic demand, where consumers are sensitive to price changes, tend to see a larger increase in consumption, while inelastic goods experience a more muted response.However, the real-world impact can vary. Producers may absorb part of the tax cut, limiting how much prices fall. Supply constraints can also cap how much consumption increases, even if prices decline. Additionally, if the tax cut is seen as temporary, consumers may not significantly change their behaviour.A common example is fuel: cutting fuel taxes reduces pump prices, which can lead to increased driving and higher fuel consumption, reinforcing the link between tax policy and demand. Some are going to argue that demand for petrol/diesel is inelastic and this is somewhat true. For people having to drive for work etc. sure, but for those heading out for a weekend trip, no. ---Cutting the heavy vehicle toll is more defensible, moving goods requires trucks and offsetting the high fuel price this way makes more sense. ps. An Australian National Cabinet meeting is a forum where the Prime Minister and state and territory leaders (premiers and chief ministers) come together to coordinate policy and decision-making on issues that affect the whole country. It replaced the former Council of Australian Governments (COAG) in 2020 to allow for faster, more flexible collaboration—initially during the COVID-19 pandemic. While it is not a legislative body and cannot make binding laws on its own, it plays a key role in aligning federal and state responses on areas such as health, the economy, energy, and infrastructure, helping ensure a more unified national approach. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The RBI’s after-hours announcement of FX position caps is being viewed as a form of indirect intervention to support the rupee. While the policy forces short covering and limits speculative pressure, banks warn that rapid implementation could trigger disorderly unwinds and near-term volatility.Summary:The Reserve Bank of India announced new FX position caps after Friday’s market close, signalling a reactive, intervention-style move to stabilise the rupee. Banks must cut net open rupee positions to $100m by April 10, effectively forcing short INR reduction and USD selling. The rupee hit a record low (94.84/USD), pressured by oil and foreign outflows tied to the Iran war. Banks are requesting a three-month transition, warning a rapid unwind could trigger disorderly flows and losses. Policy is INR supportive but execution-sensitive, with risk of short-term disruption as positions are adjusted.Indian banks are pushing back against newly announced foreign exchange restrictions from the Reserve Bank of India, framing the move as a de facto intervention in currency markets that could trigger short-term disruption if implemented too quickly.The RBI announced after the market close on Friday that banks must cap their net open rupee positions in the onshore deliverable market at $100 million by the end of each business day starting April 10. The timing of the announcement, outside trading hours,s ignals urgency and aligns with a broader effort to stabilise the rupee following its slide to a record low of 94.84 per U.S. dollar.The currency has come under sustained pressure amid a surge in oil prices and heavy foreign portfolio outflows linked to the Iran war. As a major oil importer, India faces structurally higher U.S. dollar demand when energy prices rise, while capital outflows further amplify depreciation pressure.Against this backdrop, the RBI’s move is being interpreted by market participants as a form of indirect FX intervention. By imposing strict limits on net open positions, the central bank is effectively forcing banks to reduce short rupee exposure. This creates mechanical demand for the rupee, particularly into daily closes, and constrains the ability of institutions to build large bearish positions. In practical terms, it acts as a cap on USD/INR upside by compelling banks to square positions and supply dollars back into the market.However, banks warn that the speed of implementation could prove destabilising. Treasury officials from both domestic and foreign lenders have raised concerns that the short compliance window may trigger a disorderly unwinding of existing trades, particularly arbitrage strategies between the offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market and the onshore market. These positions are heavily concentrated in the one- to three-month tenor, meaning forced early exits could generate one-sided flows and mark-to-market losses.Lenders have asked for a three-month transition period or permission to hold existing positions to maturity, arguing that a more gradual adjustment would allow exposures to roll off naturally and reduce the risk of abrupt market dislocation.The situation underscores the RBI’s balancing act. While the policy is clearly aimed at defending the rupee and restoring orderly conditions, it introduces near-term execution risk. In essence, the central bank is tightening control over positioning rather than deploying reserves directly, but the effect is similar: limiting downside pressure on the currency.For markets, the takeaway is twofold. The move signals a clear shift into defensive mode from the RBI, but also raises the likelihood of short-term volatility as positions are recalibrated. The policy may slow depreciation and compress speculative pressure, but the underlying drivers—oil prices and capital flows—remain firmly in place.---The RBI’s cap on net open positions effectively forces banks to reduce short INR exposure, creating consistent end-of-day demand for the currency as positions are squared. By limiting how large bearish bets can be, it dampens speculative pressure and curbs momentum-driven depreciation, particularly into the close. The move also indirectly increases USD supply in the onshore market, helping cap USD/INR upside. However, while this supports the rupee in the short term and smooths volatility, it does not address underlying pressures such as higher oil import costs and ongoing foreign outflows. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence.PBOC injects 269.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged rate) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan has signalled a higher likelihood of FX intervention, with Mimura’s use of “decisive” marking a clear escalation in rhetoric. Combined with Ueda’s earlier comments, authorities are showing increasing sensitivity to yen weakness.Summary:Japan’s FX chief Atsushi Mimura warns authorities are ready to take “decisive” action if speculative moves persist. Language seen as the strongest intervention signal since July 2024 yen-buying operations. Comments come after USD/JPY pushed through 160, triggering renewed concern. Follows earlier remarks from Kazuo Ueda that helped push USD/JPY lower. Combined messaging suggests policy + intervention sensitivity to yen weakness is rising.Japanese authorities have issued their strongest signal yet that they are prepared to intervene in currency markets, with Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura warning that “decisive” action may be taken if speculative moves in the yen continue.Mimura’s remarks came after the yen weakened beyond the 160 level against the U.S. dollar, its softest since mid-2024 when authorities last stepped in to support the currency. He noted that speculative activity appears to be increasing not only in foreign exchange markets but also in crude oil futures, raising concerns about disorderly price action.The use of the word “decisive” is particularly significant. While Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama had used similar language in recent weeks, markets had been waiting for confirmation from Mimura, who is traditionally more cautious. His adoption of the term is widely interpreted by traders as a clear signal that intervention, most likely yen-buying, is actively being considered.Messaging from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda today emphasised the growing importance of exchange rate movements for inflation and policy. While Ueda stopped short of verbal intervention, his remarks contributed to a pullback in USD/JPY, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to any shift in tone from Japanese officials.Taken together, the messaging from both fiscal and monetary authorities suggests a coordinated increase in vigilance toward currency weakness. The focus is not necessarily on specific levels, but rather on the pace and nature of moves—particularly those driven by speculative positioning.For policymakers, the concern is that excessive yen depreciation could amplify inflation through higher import costs, especially energy, and destabilise expectations. This is particularly relevant in the current environment, where rising global oil prices are already feeding into domestic price pressures.For markets, the implications are clear. The probability of intervention has risen meaningfully, and the threshold for action appears lower if volatility accelerates. While no immediate move is guaranteed, the shift in language suggests that authorities are increasingly uncomfortable with current currency dynamics. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BoJ Governor Ueda emphasised the growing impact of FX on inflation and policy, reinforcing that currency moves are now a key input into decision-making. While not verbal intervention, the comments supported the yen by signalling increased sensitivity to FX-driven inflation.Summary:Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted FX as a key driver of inflation and economic outcomes. Stressed the BoJ will closely monitor currency moves and factor them into policy decisions. Noted FX impact is rising as firms become more willing to raise prices and wages. Comments helped strengthen the yen, despite no explicit intervention warning. Reinforces view FX is now part of the BoJ reaction function, not just a background variable.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda underscored the growing importance of currency movements in shaping Japan’s inflation outlook, with remarks that appear to have supported the yen despite stopping short of explicit verbal intervention.Ueda said foreign exchange moves are among the factors that have a “huge impact” on Japan’s economy and prices, adding that the central bank will closely monitor developments in currency markets. While such comments are broadly consistent with previous communication, the emphasis on FX comes at a time when exchange rate volatility is increasingly feeding into domestic inflation dynamics.A key shift highlighted by Ueda is the changing behaviour of firms. As companies become more willing to raise wages and pass on higher costs, fluctuations in the yen are having a more direct and amplified impact on prices. This suggests that FX is no longer just influencing import costs at the margin, but is increasingly shaping underlying inflation through expectations and pricing behaviour.Ueda also noted that currency movements can affect inflation expectations, reinforcing the idea that exchange rates are becoming embedded in the Bank of Japan’s policy framework. The central bank will assess how FX developments influence the likelihood of achieving its growth and inflation forecasts, as well as the balance of risks around its 2% target.Importantly, the governor stopped short of issuing any direct warning about excessive currency moves or signalling concern about specific levels, meaning the remarks do not constitute formal verbal intervention. However, the tone suggests a subtle shift toward greater sensitivity to yen weakness, particularly given its inflationary implications.Ueda added that long-term interest rates are moving in line with market expectations for growth, inflation and policy, and indicated that a gradual and appropriate pace of short-term rate hikes should help maintain stability across the yield curve.For markets, the takeaway is nuanced. While not an explicit attempt to influence the currency, the comments reinforce that FX is now firmly part of the BoJ’s reaction function. That alone can have a stabilising effect on the yen, particularly in an environment where investors are testing central bank tolerance for currency-driven inflation pressures. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I posted the news from the FT here:Trump says US could take the oil in Iran (via Financial Times)In summary:U.S. President Donald Trump signalled a mix of escalation risk and cautious optimism on diplomacy in comments reported by the Financial Times. He suggested the United States could seize Iranian oil assets, including the key export hub at Kharg Island, describing it as an operation that could be carried out “very easily” and claiming Iran has limited defences there. Trump framed control of Iran’s oil as a preferred strategic outcome, though acknowledged domestic pushback against such a move.At the same time, he indicated that indirect negotiations with Iran—conducted via intermediaries—are progressing, adding that a deal could be reached relatively quickly. This highlights the ongoing dual-track approach of military pressure alongside diplomacy.Trump also noted that Iran has allowed a greater number of Pakistan-flagged oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, with the figure doubling to 20. This suggests some limited easing in maritime flows, even as broader tensions persist.Overall, the comments underscore a highly fluid situation, where aggressive military options remain on the table, but are being weighed alongside diplomatic efforts that could potentially deliver a faster resolution.-At the same time the Wall Street Journal reported on Trump weighing a direct military operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium, according to U.S. officials.Trump is considering a high-risk military operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium, a move that could significantly escalate the conflict. The mission would target key nuclear sites such as Isfahan and Natanz and could require U.S. forces on the ground for several days, exposing them to retaliation and extending the war timeline.While no decision has been made, the uranium remains central to Washington’s objective of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The U.S. is simultaneously pursuing a diplomatic route, urging Iran to hand over the material via intermediaries, though Tehran has resisted.The situation presents a clear trade-off: a forced seizure could decisively neutralise nuclear risks but at high operational and escalation cost, while a negotiated solution would avoid conflict expansion but remains uncertain. -This all comes after another tense weekend, Via Reuters: Electricity has been cut in parts of the Iranian capital Tehran and in Alborz province after attacks on the area’s infrastructure, Iran’s state media cites the country’s ministry of energy as saying. Shrapnel hit a part of the electricity grid in Alborz province, causing power to be cut in several areas of Tehran and the city of Karaj. Authorities are working on reinstating it, state media adds.-I am thinking that talk on Kharg Island is a distraction from the real goal, controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Kharg Island is basically storage and shipping. By taking it Trump would get the oil currently there, but thats about it. And of course make it much difficult for Iran to export oil (which may be a goal, sure). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump said U.S.-Iran talks are progressing well and could deliver a deal soon, while noting uncertainty remains. He also flagged the potential reopening of limited oil flows through Hormuz, signalling tentative de-escalation.Summary:Donald Trump says the U.S. is negotiating with Iran both directly and indirectly. Claims progress is strong, stating talks are “doing extremely well” and a deal could come soon. Says Iran has allowed 20 oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting limited easing in flows. However, adds uncertainty, noting a deal is not guaranteed. Reinforces ongoing two-track approach: diplomacy alongside conflict riskU.S. President Donald Trump signalled tentative progress in efforts to end the conflict with Iran, stating that negotiations are underway through both direct and indirect channels, while cautioning that an agreement is not assured.Speaking in remarks on Sunday, Trump said discussions with Tehran are “doing extremely well” and expressed optimism that a deal could be reached “pretty soon.” His comments suggest an intensification of diplomatic engagement, with talks reportedly taking place both through intermediaries and via more direct contact.In a potentially market-relevant development, Trump also said Iran has allowed 20 oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, with flows expected to begin as soon as the following morning. If confirmed, this would represent a modest easing of the disruption that has gripped one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints since the conflict began, where shipping activity has been severely constrained.However, Trump tempered his optimism by acknowledging that a deal is not guaranteed, underscoring the fragile and fluid nature of the negotiations. The mixed messaging reflects the broader dynamic that has characterised the conflict: a simultaneous push toward diplomacy alongside persistent geopolitical risks and ongoing military activity.The latest comments come amid continued uncertainty over the trajectory of the war, with markets closely tracking any signs of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and stabilising global energy flows. While the suggestion of improving negotiations may provide some relief to risk sentiment, the lack of clarity around timing and outcomes means that investors are likely to remain cautious.Overall, the remarks reinforce the prevailing narrative of a conflict at a potential inflection point, where diplomatic progress is emerging but remains uncertain and highly dependent on developments in the days ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The BoJ Summary of Opinions points to a continued tightening bias, with policymakers open to further rate hikes if conditions allow. However, Middle East risks and rising oil prices are prompting caution, with stagflation concerns emerging.Summary:Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions shows a clear tightening bias, conditional on data. Some members support continued rate hikes if growth and inflation forecasts hold. Policy still seen as accommodative even after recent hikes, implying room to tighten further. Middle East uncertainty is a key reason for holding steady in the near term. Rising oil prices flagged as a stagflation risk (weak growth + higher prices).The Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions from its March meeting reveals a policy board increasingly inclined toward further tightening, while remaining cautious in the face of heightened global uncertainty.Several members indicated that additional rate hikes would be appropriate if the central bank’s economic and inflation forecasts materialise, reinforcing the view that Japan’s policy normalisation cycle is not yet complete. Despite recent increases, policymakers broadly agreed that monetary conditions remain accommodative, suggesting the current policy rate is still well below neutral levels.However, the tone of the discussion also reflects a more complex backdrop. A number of members highlighted the need to proceed carefully given the uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict, which has driven a sharp rise in energy prices. This external shock is seen as a key factor justifying a pause in the near term, even as underlying inflation dynamics continue to firm.The central focus for the BoJ remains whether price pressures become sustained and domestically driven. Policymakers emphasised the importance of monitoring wage growth, corporate pricing behaviour, and broader economic conditions, including insights from the Tankan survey and regional business reports. Some members noted that scrutiny of wage and price developments will become increasingly important from the next meeting onward, reflecting the Bank’s emphasis on achieving stable, demand-driven inflation.At the same time, there is a growing awareness of the risks of falling behind the curve. One member warned that if underlying inflation continues to rise above the 2% target and the Bank delays action, it may be forced into more aggressive tightening later, potentially delivering a sharper shock to the economy.Adding to the complexity, policymakers flagged the risk that higher oil prices could generate cost-push inflation without corresponding strength in demand—raising the possibility of a stagflationary environment. This underscores the challenge facing the BoJ: balancing the need to normalise policy against the risk that external shocks could undermine growth.Overall, the Summary suggests a BoJ that remains on a gradual tightening path, but one that is increasingly data-dependent and sensitive to global developments. The bias is clearly toward further hikes, but the timing will hinge on how domestic inflation evolves alongside external risks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Via Reuters:Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’ – FT Trump says US could seize the export hub of Kharg Island – FT Trump says number of Pakistan-flagged oil tankers Iran had permitted through the Strait of Hormuz had now been doubled to 20 – FT“To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’" he told FT.Also:Trump says could take Kharg Island ‘very easily’: FT Trump thinks Irans have no defense on Kharg Island: FT Trump says indirect talks via emissaries progressing well: FT Trump says a deal could be made ‘fairly quickly’: FT****Also, via Wall Street Journal:SummaryPresident Donald Trump is weighing a direct military operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium, according to U.S. officials. The mission would likely require U.S. troops on Iranian soil for days, making it one of the most complex options under consideration. Washington is also pushing for Iran to hand over the material via negotiations, avoiding a high-risk ground operation. The uranium stockpile—central to the war’s rationale—remains located at key sites including Isfahan and Natanz. Any forced extraction would risk significant escalation and prolonging the conflict beyond current timelines.President Donald Trump is considering a high-risk military operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, a move that would mark a major escalation in the ongoing conflict and potentially require U.S. forces to operate inside Iran for an extended period, according to U.S. officials. The proposed mission would target nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium believed to be stored at key nuclear sites, including underground facilities in Isfahan and Natanz. The material is central to Washington’s stated objective of preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, and its removal, either through negotiation or force, has emerged as a core condition for ending the war. While no decision has been made, officials say the president remains open to the option, even as he weighs the risks to U.S. personnel. The operation itself would be complex and logistically demanding. Military planners envision inserting forces into contested areas, securing perimeters under potential missile and drone fire, and deploying specialised teams capable of safely extracting radioactive material. The uranium, stored in multiple cylinders, would need to be transported under strict safety protocols, likely requiring a coordinated airlift operation. Experts caution that such a mission would not be a rapid strike but a multi-day operation, increasing exposure to Iranian retaliation and raising the risk of a broader escalation. The potential for the conflict to extend beyond its current expected timeframe, previously framed as several weeks, has become a key concern among policymakers and military officials. Diplomatic efforts remain ongoing in parallel. The U.S. has encouraged Iran to surrender the uranium as part of a negotiated settlement, with intermediaries including Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt facilitating indirect contacts. However, no direct talks have taken place, and Iran has so far resisted such demands. The debate reflects a broader strategic dilemma. Seizing the uranium could deliver a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but at the cost of significant operational risk and potential escalation. Conversely, a negotiated transfer would avoid direct confrontation but depends on concessions Tehran has shown little willingness to make.As military preparations continue and additional forces are positioned in the region, the uranium question is emerging as a central pivot point in the conflict—one that could determine whether the war moves toward resolution or enters a more dangerous and prolonged phase. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bond giants see growth shock ahead as markets fixate on inflationSummary:Major bond managers warn markets are underestimating growth risks from the U.S.–Iran war, according to Bloomberg. Oil above $110 has driven a Treasury selloff, with yields surging on inflation fears. Investors expect the Fed to stay tight or even hike, pushing bonds toward their worst month since Oct 2024. However, firms like PIMCO, JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock see a growth slowdown that could reverse yields lower. Key debate: inflation shock now vs recession risk next. Some of Wall Street’s largest bond investors are increasingly warning that financial markets are focusing too heavily on inflation risks from the U.S.–Iran war, while underestimating the growing threat to economic growth, according to reporting by Bloomberg (gated).The recent surge in oil prices above $110 per barrel, driven by disruptions linked to the conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has triggered a sharp repricing across global fixed income markets. U.S. Treasuries have sold off aggressively, with yields climbing across the curve as investors price in the possibility that the Federal Reserve may need to keep policy tight, or even hike rates, to contain inflationary pressures.Short- and medium-dated Treasury yields have risen by more than 50 basis points since the conflict escalated, while 30-year yields have approached the 5% level, nearing highs last seen in 2023. The move reflects concerns that higher energy prices will feed through into broader inflation, with organisations such as the OECD warning U.S. consumer prices could rise meaningfully this year.However, several major asset managers argue that this market reaction may be too one-sided. Investors at firms including PIMCO, JPMorgan Chase and Columbia Threadneedle Investments are positioning for a different outcome—one in which the energy shock ultimately weakens economic activity and pulls yields back down.Their argument centres on the transmission mechanism from higher oil prices to the broader economy. Elevated fuel costs, tighter financial conditions and declining equity markets are expected to weigh on both businesses and consumers. Economists have already begun revising down growth forecasts, with recession probabilities rising toward the 30–35% range over the next year.In this framework, what begins as an inflation shock can quickly evolve into a growth shock. Historically, such dynamics tend to support bonds as slowing activity increases the likelihood of eventual monetary easing. Some investors are already beginning to position for this shift, viewing the recent rise in yields as an opportunity to lock in more attractive entry points.At BlackRock, fixed-income chief Rick Rieder said he expects to increase exposure to shorter-dated bonds once the outlook becomes clearer, while others have started adding to long-duration positions in anticipation of a reversal in yields.The divergence between market pricing and investor positioning highlights a key tension. Futures markets are currently pricing out rate cuts this year and even assigning a probability to further tightening. Yet some of the largest bond managers believe that if the Federal Reserve leans too heavily into the inflation narrative, it risks exacerbating the slowdown—ultimately forcing yields lower as growth deteriorates.For now, the bond market remains caught between two competing forces: an immediate inflation shock driven by energy prices, and a potentially more powerful growth slowdown that could dominate in the months ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BdF's Villeroy says ECB ready to act, but too early to discuss timing of any rate hikeEuropean Central Bank’s François Villeroy says policymakers are ready to act if energy-driven inflation broadens. Emphasises it is too early to discuss timing of any rate hike despite rising market expectations. Iran war-driven energy shock is seen as inflationary near term, but ECB cannot prevent the initial spike. Policy focus is on second-round effects, not the first-round energy price surge. Markets currently price ~3 hikes in 2026, with the first fully priced by JuneThe European Central Bank is signalling a clear readiness to respond to energy-driven inflation pressures, but remains cautious about committing to the timing of any policy tightening, according to comments from French central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau.Speaking to Italy’s La Stampa, Villeroy said the ECB stands prepared to act if the recent surge in energy prices begins to spill over into broader inflation, but stressed that it is premature to discuss specific dates for potential rate hikes. His remarks reflect a growing internal debate within the ECB as policymakers assess the inflationary consequences of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which has driven a sharp rise in energy costs.The key distinction for the ECB is between the initial inflation shock and its potential persistence. Villeroy acknowledged that the central bank is effectively powerless to prevent the immediate impact of higher energy prices on headline inflation. Instead, policy is focused on preventing second-round effects—where higher energy costs feed into wages, services, and core inflation dynamics.This framing aligns with the ECB’s broader reaction function. While some policymakers have floated the possibility of an April rate hike, others remain cautious, arguing that there is insufficient evidence at this stage to justify a rapid tightening response. Villeroy’s comments reinforce the more measured camp, emphasising optionality rather than urgency.At the same time, he conceded that the war has worsened the inflation outlook, even if the ECB’s own adverse scenarios may overstate the risks by not accounting for potential policy responses. This suggests policymakers are aware of the upside risks to inflation but are not yet convinced that those risks will become entrenched.Market pricing, however, is moving ahead of the ECB’s guidance. Investors are currently expecting around three rate hikes this year, with the first move fully priced by June. This divergence highlights a familiar tension: markets are reacting to the inflation impulse from energy, while the ECB is focused on whether that impulse becomes persistent.For now, the ECB’s message is one of conditional readiness. Policymakers are clearly shifting toward a more hawkish stance as energy risks build, but remain data-dependent and unwilling to pre-commit to a tightening timeline without clearer evidence of broader inflation transmission. ---I just posted this chart update here ... spooky!Let's see if this nascent bounce develops. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Friday plummet in 'risk' is extending in early Asia trade. The higher USD (a little higher) was noticeable earlier and that's carrying on. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Israel intercepted two drones launched from Yemen, following Houthi missile attacks over the weekend. The developments mark the group’s entry into the conflict and highlight the growing regional spread of hostilities, with implications for security and shipping.Summary:Israel’s military says it intercepted two drones launched from Yemen, marking continued spillover from the widening regional conflict. The incident follows weekend claims by Iranian-backed Houthis of ballistic missile strikes on Israeli targets. The Houthis had signalled entry into the war, opening a new southern/frontline vector for Israel. This marks the first sustained Yemen-linked attacks on Israel since the conflict began one month ago. Escalation reinforces risks to Red Sea shipping, energy flows and regional security dynamics.Israel’s military said it intercepted two drones launched from Yemen, underscoring the growing regionalisation of the Middle East conflict as Iranian-aligned forces expand their involvement beyond the immediate Israel-Iran theatre.The drone interceptions follow a weekend escalation in which Iran-backed Houthi rebels formally claimed responsibility for launching ballistic missiles toward Israel. In a statement broadcast on the group’s Al-Masirah network, Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the strikes targeted what he described as sensitive Israeli military sites in the south of the country. Israel had earlier confirmed intercepting at least one missile.The developments mark a significant shift in the conflict’s trajectory. While tensions had already been elevated across the region, the Houthis’ direct entry into the war opens a new operational front from Yemen, extending the geographic scope of hostilities and increasing the complexity of Israel’s defensive posture.The group had signalled its intention to join the conflict late last week, and the subsequent missile and drone launches suggest that threat is now materialising. This is the first time Israel has faced sustained hostile fire from Yemen since the start of the current war, which began a month ago following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.The expansion of hostilities into Yemen carries broader strategic implications. The Houthis have previously demonstrated their ability to disrupt maritime traffic in the Red Sea, particularly during earlier phases of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Their re-engagement raises renewed concerns over the security of key shipping lanes, including routes critical for global energy and trade flows.While Israel’s air defence systems have so far successfully intercepted incoming threats, the diversification of attack vectors—from missiles to drones and from multiple geographic fronts—highlights the evolving nature of the conflict. It also increases the risk of miscalculation and further escalation, particularly if attacks intensify or begin to penetrate defensive systems.For now, the latest intercepts reinforce the view that the conflict is broadening rather than stabilising. Diplomatic efforts remain ongoing in parallel, but the expansion of active fronts suggests that containment is becoming increasingly difficult as regional actors align more openly with either side. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Brent up around $2.70 to circa 115.30 a barrel US crude up around $2.35 to circa $102 a bblUS equity index futures had a very weak close on Friday, are lower to open the week. Weekend:Yemen attacks Israel again with missilesPakistan says it will host US-Iran talksWhere the warmakers are at: US-Iran talks uncertainUS sends more signals that troop deployments coming. Rubio hints at endgame This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.