Key takeaways The Hang Seng Index remains in a medium-term uptrend, despite a recent 9% pullback triggered by renewed US-China trade tensions.China’s core CPI rose to a 19-month high of 1% in September 2025, easing deflation fears and boosting market confidence.Technical indicators show bullish momentum, with key short-term support at 25,140 and upside resistance near 27,500.A sustained yuan appreciation continues to underpin Hong Kong’s equity market recovery. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “Hang Seng Index Technical: Bullish consolidation above 26,200 on China housing recovery”, published on 15 September 2025.The price actions of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) have staged the expected bullish movement and rallied by 4.25% from 15 September 2025, surpassing the 26,940 resistance highlighted in our previous report, and hit an intraday high of 27,401 on 2 October 2025 (just whisker away from a major resistance of 27,500).Thereafter, the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index tumbled by 9% (high to low) from 2 October 2025 to print an intraday low of 24,918 on Friday, 10 October 2025, due to renewed trade tensions between the US and China.Let’s now examine the key macro factors that are likely to support the continuation of the medium-term bullish trends in the China and Hong Kong stock markets since April 2025 (ex-post US “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement).China's core CPI continues to recover, reducing the risk of a deflationary spiral Fig. 1: China CPI, Core CPI & PPI as of Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) China’s headline CPI prices dropped by 0.3% y/y in September 2025, steeper than the consensus estimates of a 0.1% decline but slightly less than a 0.4% drop in August 2025.However, China’s core CPI inflation rate (stripping out food and energy) has continued to increase; it rose by 1% year-over-year (y/y) in September 2025, from 0.9% in August 2025, marking the highest reading in 19 months (see Fig. 1).Additionally, the deceleration in China’s producer prices (PPI) has begun to slow, as they fell 2.3% year-over-year (y/y) in September 2025, easing from a 2.9% drop in August 2025, in line with consensus estimates, marking the mildest contraction since February 2025.These latest inflationary data prints have reduced the risk of a deflationary spiral in the Chinese economy; in turn, this may see an uptick in consumer confidence in Q4 2025, which can trigger a positive feedback loop back into the China and Hong Kong stock markets.Now, let's turn our attention to decipher the latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory, key levels, and elements to watch on the Hang Kong 33 CFD Index from a technical analysis perspective. Hong Kong 33 CFD Index minor trend as of 15 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index medium-term & major trends as of 15 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Bullish reversal at gap support Tuesday, 14 October 2025’s minor corrective decline of 2.9% (high to low) has stalled and reversed right at the gap support formed at the start of Monday’s 13 October 2025 Asia session.Bullish bias above 25,140 key short-term pivotal support and a clearance above the 25,860/26,060 (upside trigger level) sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at 26,935 before a test on the 27,500 major resistance (see Fig. 2).Key elements The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index has staged a bullish momentum breakout condition on Tuesday, 14 October 2025, US session (see Fig. 2).The major uptrend phase of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index has been in place since 22 January 2024 low remaining intact, supported by a steady appreciation of the offshore yuan (CNH) against the US dollar (see Fig. 3)The major resistance of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index stands at 27,860, defined by the major descending trendline from the 29 January 2018 all-time high, and the upper boundary of a major ascending channel from the 22 January 2024 low.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 25,140 key short-term support invalidates the bullish reversal scenario on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index for the continuation of the corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 24,820 and 24,260. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 14Market sentiment has been yo-yoing since Friday’s turmoil, with investors struggling to find stable footing after the week’s chaotic end.While equities appear to have found an intermediate bottom, the price action remains uncertain, reflecting caution and the price action in risk-assets is now much more open compared to the prior up-only trend.Every US-China headline is being closely dissected, the latest being this Axios update, which reignited some anxiety over the increasingly fragile trade relationship between the two global leaders.The overall ambiance is one of hesitation — a fitting tone for what has been a volatile year.That said, Powell’s dovish tone around the mid-session did help restore confidence, reinforcing expectations for another rate cut by month-end.Add to that a wave of dip-buying and some further downplaying comments from USTR Greer, and markets managed to rebound convincingly – At least from their terrible daily open.The Dow closed higher on the session, while the Russell 2000 — performing particularly better in lower rate conditions— broke new records, clearly enjoying the renewed risk-on momentum. Russell 2000 Futures, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:US-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowThe Powell/TACO combo lifts Wall Street from early lossesUSD/CAD Price Outlook: Consolidation Above Key 1.4000 Handle. What Next for the Loonie?Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView The scale of changes to all assets in today's session is fairly low, but don't let that fool you:Volatility was extremely elevated today, particularly when looking at the switch between the Asia session risk-off to the more bullish/positive sentiment that arrived after the US Open (around 10:00 A.M).To give yourself a perspective, take a close look to the movements in Ethereum (ETH).Almost everything mean-reverted as some point today, marking further hesitation to the ongoing themes and narratives.Expect volatility yet again. Read More:UK labor report gives pound a reality check: What's next for GBPWTI Oil tumbles as US-China trade tensions flare up againA picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, October 14 – Source: OANDA Labs Risk-off currencies dominated the charts today, while the Euro enjoyed some of the US Dollar weakness that came back.Apart from that, nothing much to note from FX markets that are awaiting any particular change.Some further weakness in Antipodeans (AUD, NZD) is to denote in the past few sessions, hurt by the worsening sentiment particularly surrounding Chinese trade.Keep an eye on this for any potential trends forming.A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's session For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session is not entirely over, particularly for APAC traders awaiting for Chinese inflation data: Both CPI and PPI releasing at 21:30 tonight.This should have a strong impact on the Antipodeans which haven't liked all the US-China headlines so much.With the BLS releases still offline, traders will look to alternative indicators for signs of U.S. economic momentum — and today’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey takes center stage.How investors and traders can gauge the US labor market amid the BLS shutdown Consensus points to a mild rebound (-1.8 vs -8.7 prior), and any upside surprise could lift sentiment on the U.S. outlook.Europe will start the western session with Industrial Production and several ECB and BoE speeches, while the U.S. afternoon will be packed with Fed commentary and the Beige Book release.Later in the day, attention shifts to Australia’s employment data, which could drive AUD volatility further if the job market shows further cooling – The last piece wasn't an optimal surprise for AUD bulls.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Today marked the first trading day of the week for many North American traders after Columbus Day for the US and the Canadian Thanksgiving — and the session opened with what felt like a long-weekend hangover.Overnight markets had reacted sharply to China’s condemnations regarding the escalating US-China trade tensions, notably hurting Oil markets even further.Despite Trump’s reassuring comments on Sunday, which helped risk assets rebound over the weekend and led to a bullish Monday session, sentiment reversed during the Asia session leading to a scary opening Bell. Major indices gapped down, with the Nasdaq dropping 1.2% and cryptocurrencies also taking another hit after last week’s selloff. Sentiment quickly shifted mid-morning after the rough open. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer downplayed some of the recent rhetoric between the two nations, triggering a rebound just 20 minutes after the open that carried momentum throughout the session. By midday, all four major US indices had turned positive, erasing their early losses. 15M Chart Outlook for US Equities – October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite the impressive rebound right after the open taking all indices to their weekly highs, there is are ongoing selloff waves in the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 to keep some eyes on. Nasdaq is not really reacting much for now and I am not spotting any headlines. The real bullish catalysts came around mid-day from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose dovish remarks at the National Association for Business Economics meeting brought further bullish momentum. Powell’s comments raised questions about whether the Fed had early insights into the NFP data, as he emphasized that further labor market softening could justify additional easing.His tone cemented expectations for another rate cut by month-end, reinforcing the ongoing theme of things not being so bad after all despite the US-China trade scare.You can access his latest speech right here.Still, the price action is looking more rangebound with the recent swings rather than back to fully bullish – Let's take a closer look to the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500. US Equity heatmap – October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:WTI Oil tumbles as US-China trade tensions flare up againUK labor report gives pound a reality check: What's next for GBPUS-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowUS Index analysis and levels: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500Dow Jones 4H Chart Dow Jones 4H Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones led an impressive rebound today, lifted by decent earnings and a easier-path ahead when turning to Powell's latest comments.A few things to look going forward:A downward topline has put a strong stop to the ongoing bullish actionBulls will have to break above the Monday highs to relaunch a fully bullish price actionSellers will also have to break below the daily lows to relaunch take controlIn the meantime, the technical outlook being mixed, a consolidation period would have high probability of taking place – At least until the market knows more on the US-China situation.Dow Jones technical levels of interestResistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 47,105Daily highs to break with topline 46,560ATH Resistance Zone 47,000 to 47,160 (+/- 150 pts)post-FOMC highs resistance zone around 46,400 (immediately testing)Support LevelsAugust ATH Immediate Pivot 45,650 to 45,750Daily session lows at 45,490Friday lows at 45,18945,000 psychological level44,400 to 44,500 Main SupportNasdaq 4H Chart Nasdaq 4H Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Tech-Heavy index hasn't rebounded as strongly as its peers today on a relative change and is finding itself in a mixed technical environment.It is the second time that sellers appear at the key Momentum pivot around 24,800 showing how undecisive the price action is.Keep an eye on struggling names in tech like Nvidia: If they come back from here, Nasdaq should follow suit.If the big names keep getting offered, ther path ahead might be a bit more grim.Nasdaq technical levels of interestResistance Levelscurrent ATH 25,2241.618 Fib-Extension resistance between 25,200 and 25,300Momentum Pivot 24,750 to 24,800Monday highs and 4H MA 50 24,890Support LevelsEnd September Support and MA 200 24,300 (morning rebound)Friday lows 24,016August 12 ATH zone turning support (23,950 to 24,020)23,000 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart S&P 500 4H Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Similarly as the Nasdaq, sellers have appeared around the momentum pivot and the overall action might not be as bullish as it was the past few months – Keep an eye on sentiment.A pattern that emerges is the ongoing break-retest action of the main May upward channel – short term technicals are looking more neutral than anything for now.The price action will be interesting for the time to come, expect volatility.S&P 500 Trading Levels:Resistance Levels6,774 (current All Time-Highs)Key current Resistance 6,745 to 6,760Key Pivot Zone 6,670 to 6,700potential resistance (1.618 fib - 6,790 to 6,800)Support Levels6,570 to 6,600 Key SupportFOMC and daily lows 6,5626,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH now Support (MA 200 Confluence)6,400 Main Support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Eyes Acceptance Above $4100/oz on US-China Trade War Fears, Up 2% on the DayThe loonie has recovered in the US session after starting the day on the back foot. The move was more driven by the US dollar than any developments on the side of the Canadian Dollar.The loonie has come under pressure in recent days as oil prices have also retreated to fresh lows. When it comes to USD/CAD, the loonies weakness coincided with a rally for the US Dollar which has defied the US Government shutdown and US-China tensions to leave the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering near recent highs.Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Back to the technicals though and USD/CAD has broken the channel which had help price over for just over two months. This sets up USD/CAD for a potential 280 pip move.The medium-term outlook does look positive for USD/CAD as price has broken above the psychological 1.4000 handle and the 200-day MA. This is the first time USD/CAD trades above the 200-day MA since April 10, 2025. Funny enough this also coincided with USD/CAD breaking below the 1.4000 handle as is the case with the break above this time around.This makes the 200-day MA key for me and thus if we are to see the bullish move continue, price needs to remain above the 200-day MA if we get any pullback in price.USD/CAD Daily Chart, October 14, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Dropping down to the four-hour chart and you can see that we have just had a bearish engulfing candle close.Together with the daily hovering near overbought territory (it was in overbought territory when USD/CAD was at its daily high) could lead to a slightly deeper pullback.If this does materialize, the swing low at 1.39840 is very close to the 200-day MA on the daily timeframe, which rests aroundThus a hold above this level may be the sign for those would be bulls looking to get involved.USD/CAD Four-Hour Chart, October 14, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Economic Data Ahead The US Government shutdown remains in effect and thus data from a US perspective remains out of reach. There is also a lack of high impact data from Canada this week with a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem the highlight.This could leave the technicals as a major driver for price moves while trade war developments between the US and China will also play a role.Next week is much more interesting. We get the releases of key inflation data from the US & Canada. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Client Sentiment Data - USD/CAD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are short on USDCAD with 75% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are short means USD/CAD prices could rise in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares Cautious Most Read: USD/JPY Price Outlook: Key Levels, BoJ, and Political RisksAsian stock markets showed mixed results on Tuesday, ultimately struggling to gain ground as optimism about potential US-China trade talks was offset by doubts about whether the two nations could reach a lasting agreement.Initially, broader Asian indexes saw some gains, but those quickly faded to trade flat. A new front in the trade war opened as the US and China began imposing port fees on shipping firms.Consequently, markets like Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 0.4%, and mainland Chinese blue-chip stocks slipped 0.1%.However, some markets were boosted by company-specific news. Taiwan's market jumped 0.8% after a record performance by chipmaker TSMC, following an announcement that OpenAI would partner with Broadcom to create in-house AI processors.In South Korea, the Kospi index gained 0.6% after Samsung Electronics reported surprisingly strong predicted operating profits for the third quarter, thanks to solid demand for traditional memory chips.In contrast, Japan's Nikkei index fell 1.2% as the market reopened after a holiday.UK Wage Growth Struggles The rate at which UK workers' regular pay is increasing has slightly slowed down, marking the weakest growth in over three years, primarily due to slower raises in the private sector.From June to August 2025, the average regular pay (not including bonuses) grew by 4.7% annually, a small drop from the previous period and exactly what market experts expected. This slowdown was entirely concentrated in the private sector, where wage growth fell from 4.7% to a four-year low of 4.4%.In contrast, public sector wages actually accelerated, hitting 6.0% annual growth, partly because some pay raises were implemented earlier this year than last. Among different industries, the highest pay increases (after the public sector) were seen in wholesaling, retailing, and hospitality (5.9%), while the weakest were in finance and business services (2.9%). When accounting for inflation (meaning the real buying power of the wages), the growth was minimal, slowing to just 0.6%, which is the lowest real-terms gain since 2023.The data today will only add to expectations of a December rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE).European Session - European Stocks Struggle European stock markets declined on Tuesday, reaching a two-week low, as fresh worries about the US-China trade conflict resurfaced and corporate news, specifically from French tire maker Michelin, weighed heavily on the market.The overall STOXX 600 index fell by 0.6%. Investors were nervous after both the US and China began imposing new port fees on shipping companies, a move that signals an expansion of the trade war despite earlier hopes for talks.This anxiety hit the miners sector the hardest, which fell by 2%.The automakers sector also dropped 1.5%, largely due to Michelin, whose stock plunged 9.3% after the company cut its financial outlook for the entire year. Michelin blamed worse-than-expected sales and falling profit margins in the North American market.Other related companies, like Germany's Continental and Italy's Pirelli, also saw their shares fall.Bucking the trend, Swedish telecoms firm Ericsson soared 12.4% after it reported stronger-than-expected quarterly profits and downplayed the potential negative effects of the new US tariffs.On the FX front, the U.S. dollar's strength was brief on Tuesday, as it weakened against many other major currencies.Both the euro and the British pound (sterling) saw small gains against the dollar. Currencies often seen as a measure of investor risk appetite, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, both suffered heavy losses, dropping 0.63% and 0.5%, respectively.In contrast, traditional safe-haven currencies, those investors turn to during times of uncertainty were gaining ground. The Swiss franc rose 0.2%, and the Japanese yen reversed its earlier losses to climb 0.3% against the dollar.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices saw a small increase on Tuesday, while the price of gold continued its record-breaking surge.Oil gained slightly, with Brent crude rising 0.2% to $63.45 per barrel. This gain came after a report from OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) on Monday indicated a key shift in the oil market.OPEC now expects the world's oil supply to closely match demand next year, mainly because the larger OPEC+ group is increasing production. This is a change from their previous forecast, which had predicted a shortage of oil in 2026.Meanwhile, Gold showed no signs of slowing down, jumping another 1.1% to a new record of $4,179.00/oz.For more on the movement of Gold prices, read Gold (XAU/USD) Price Eyes Acceptance Above $4100/oz on US-China Trade War Fears, Up 2% on the DayEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will bring ZEW economic sentiment data from the Euro Area and Germany.Later in the day markets will continue to keep an eye on trade deal development talks between the US and China before earnings season kicks off. We will hear from BlackRock, JPMorgan and Citi Group today before Central Bank speakers take the spotlight. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 is trading just above a key support level provided by the 100-day MA around 9392.5.A hold above this level of support could signal another bullish leg to the upside.The period-14 RSI is currently below the 50 level which signals bearish momentum. A break back above 50 here could help the FTSE 100 push higher.Immediate resistance rests around the 9500 handle before the swing high at 9590 comes into focus.On the downside, support rests at 9392 before the 9357 and 9311 handles become areas of interest.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, October 14. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Earnings momentum strengthens: The S&P 500’s projected Q3 2025 earnings growth was revised up to 8.0% year-on-year, marking a potential ninth straight quarter of earnings expansion.JPMorgan leads Financials upgrades: JPMorgan Chase (EPS revised to $4.78) and Progressive have driven the Financials sector’s upward revisions.Bullish technical setup intact: After a 5.35% correction, JPMorgan’s stock rebounded near its 50-day moving average, with momentum indicators turning positive. According to the latest FactSet data as of 3 October 2025, the projected year-on-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in Q3 stands at 8.0%, up from 7.3% at the start of the quarter (30 June 2025). If realized, this would mark the ninth consecutive quarter of earnings growth for the index.Six sectors have seen upward revisions to earnings estimates since 30 June, led by Information Technology (20.9% vs. 15.9%), Financials (11.0% vs. 7.6%), and Communication Services (3.2% vs. 0.8%) (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: S&P 500 and 11 sectors Q3 2025 earnings growth forecasts as of 3 Oct 2025 (Source: FactSet) JPMorgan Chase leads Financials in Q3 earnings upgrade revisions Within the Financials sector, JPMorgan Chase (EPS revised to $4.78 from $4.48) and Progressive (EPS revised to $4.81 from $3.53) have been key drivers behind the sector’s upward earnings revisions over the same period.JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report its Q3 results on Tuesday, 14 October 2025, before the US market opens. Based on TradingView data, its Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) are expected to come in at US$4.85, a growth increase of 10% from the same quarter a year ago, US$4.37 EPSLet’s now turn our focus to the technicals of JPMorganJPMorgan managed to stage a bullish reversal, medium-term uptrend intact Fig. 2: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) medium-term trend as of 13 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) The 5.35% corrective decline from JPMorgan (JPM)’s all-time high of 318.01, recorded on 29 September 2025, appears to have reached a potential reversal zone, setting the stage for a fresh bullish impulsive upswing within its medium-term uptrend, which has remained intact since the 7 April 2025 low of 202.16 (see Fig. 2).On Friday, 10 October, JPMorgan’s share price staged a 2.4% bullish reversal (low to close) after briefly retesting its 50-day moving average, which continues to serve as a key intermediate support around 303.80, following a short-lived sell-off sparked by renewed US-China trade tensions.The daily RSI momentum indicator of JPM has also managed to stage a rebound after a retest on a key ascending trendline support at the 40 level and closer higher above the 50 level at 52 on Monday, 13 October 2025. These observations suggest a potential resurgence of medium-term bullish momentum conditions.In addition, the ratio charts (relative strength gauges) of the JPMorgan Chase/S&P 500 ETF and JPMorgan Chase/S&P 500 Financials sector ETF suggest potential outperformance of JPMorgan Chase against the S&P 500 and the Financials sector.JPM’s key medium-term pivotal support rests at 294.30 to maintain the bullish bias for another round of potential bullish up move sequence for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 328.00/336.90 and 352.00/360.00 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster)On the flip side, a break and a daily close below 294.30 key support invalidates the bullish scenario to trigger a deeper corrective decline sequence to expose 280.00 and even the major support of 269.50 (also the 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 11Markets kicked off the week with a TACO rebound — Trump Always Chickens Out — following a bloodshed Friday that briefly ended the euphoric “everything rally.”Last week closed with fearful price action after days of relentless gains. US–China trade war tensions resurfaced, shaking risk sentiment and triggering a massive wave of crypto liquidations that saw some altcoins plunge 40–70%, while ETH and Bitcoin wicked down nearly 20% around 16:45 ET on Friday.But sentiment turned fast. A calming post from President Trump downplaying the severity of the trade spat helped markets breathe again over the weekend. Crypto staged a spectacular comeback, dragging US equity futures higher in a classic “weekend reversal”. Most traditional markets — the US, Japan, and Canada — were closed, but futures trading didn’t miss a beat.Meanwhile, geopolitical developments were equally supportive. A major peace summit in Egypt produced concrete progress in the Israel–Hamas ceasefire deal, including hostage and prisoner releases, marking a breakthrough moment for Middle East stability.By Monday’s open, risk appetite was fully restored: Dow futures up 1.25%, Russell +2.6%, and Gold and Silver surging to fresh all-time highs, as markets cheered the combination of cooling geopolitical risks and resilient optimism across assets. Read More:US-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand now But sentiment turned fast. A calming post from President Trump downplaying the severity of the trade spat helped markets breathe again over the weekend.Crypto loved the Trump post, sparking a spectacular comeback which also preceded a US equity futures higher in a classic weekend reversal. Volumes were down a lot with US, Japan, and Canada Markets closed, but futures trading didn’t miss the beat.Meanwhile, geopolitical developments were equally supportive of a risk-on session.A major peace summit in Egypt produced concrete progress in the Israel–Hamas ceasefire deal, including hostage and prisoner releases, marking a breakthrough moment for Middle East stability. Some awkward points still need to be seen for a stable implementation of the deal, but this remains a decent start.As the daily session closes, risk appetite was fully restored: Dow futures close up 1.25%, with the Russell leading US Futures at +2.6%. Gold and Silver also surged to fresh all-time highs, as markets cheered the combination of the renewed trade tensions. Read More:A EUR/USD guide on how long-term trends reverseMarkets Weekly Outlook – Geopolitical peace and turmoil ; Third week of shutdownCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView You can spot how spectacular the Sunday Globex open led a huge reversal higher for most assets.US Oil had gapped down below the $60 mark over the weekend, suffering from the lower global trade outlook and might be an interesting trade to follow this week.Will the energy commodity come back higher if the US-China beef settles down?Also keep an eye on the metals trade that maintain their trend higher.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, October 13 – Source: OANDA Labs A much less volatile FX day compared to Friday but still very erratic. Look at how many crosses happened in all majors in this sudden rebalancing.Most of the highest volume markets were off today so the real week starts tomorrow. Nonetheless, the AUD finishes higher again and the CAD lower – another 2025 classic.A look at Economic data releasing through Sunday evening and Monday's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Markets didn't get many headlines from the IMF meeting which doesn't tend to be a huge market mover but still keep an eye on key speeches.The UK labour report kicks off the session at 2:00 AM ET with wages and employment figures releasing. A Europe-only data release follows with German ZEW surveys and an ECB speech, providing insight into confidence across the bloc.With US data still not releasing due to the Government shutdown, focus returns on Central Bank speakers, where Federal Reserve Chair Powell, Bailey, and multiple Fed speakers will create some suspense in the North American Session.The evening wraps up with China CPI and PPI prints, crucial for assessing deflationary pressures and global demand sentiment heading into midweek. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It is natural for traders to fade the trend.Seeking value, one expects that elevated prices after a steep uptrend mean overpriced and low prices after a big correction always mean underpriced.Looking for value is something natural for the Homo Economicus. When we go to the store, we are looking for discounts.But with Markets, discounts don't always translate well with good trades.The steep uptrend in EURUSD from January to the 1st of July brought the pair from 1.01 (close to parity) to 1.18 in a spectacular move.Those who bet on a reversal then initially got proven right, with the pair falling 4,000 pips during the same month. But, those who were expecting a full downtrend to form got met with a slap in the face.From end-July to the September FOMC meeting, the pair actually consolidated and went to break new yearly highs – Currently at 1.19188.Such a strong uptrend usually leaves banks and algorithms looking for spots to re-enter the trend. These strong flows lead to consolidation and continuation of the trend.Now turning to today – A bearish divergence double-top made at the new yearly highs is following with what resembles a longer-run correction.The lesson ? Strong trends often don't reverse in one shot – Double tops tend to be more accurate signals and the same works on all timeframes.Let's explore a multi-timeframe EUR/USD analysis to look into the details. Read More:US-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowGold (XAU/USD) Price Eyes Acceptance Above $4100/oz on US-China Trade War Fears, Up 2% on the DayMarkets Weekly Outlook – Geopolitical peace and turmoil ; Third week of shutdownEUR/USD multi-timeframe analysisWeekly Chart EUR/USD Weekly Chart, October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView The 2025 rise got met with a two-wave top before the ongoing correction move formed.As can be observed, the uptrend was spectacular in EUR/USD throughout the first six months of trading with the first move, almost uninterrupted, leading to a +16.40% move in a tight bull weekly channel.The key to spot on the weekly chart, is how momentum did not follow the second wave to the new highs which happened very fast. For those who did not witness the move that formed the new 2025 peak in the pair, a flash US dollar pair right before the September FOMC meeting on low volumes led to the current 1.19188 wick.A lack of consistency, time and volume in the second move is typically where divergences form, and this one was no exception.After the divergence, players tend to require confirmation with price action: A long-top doji got followed by a lower weekly candle for the last week of September, leading to a break of the 2025 steep uptrend.Daily Chart EUR/USD Daily Chart, October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, we see how the September 17 price extremes got met with sharp rejection.Breaking through multiple levels in a more progressive fashion than the end-July correction, the price action has formed a downward channel.About that first 4,000 pip correction in end-July, keep in mind in any trend reversal that happens in a sudden crash tends to be met with consequent dip-buying.Emergency selloffs/steep squeezes tend to not be sustainable moves but still mark a change of sentiment in the price action (which tends to scare the most leveraged participants the most).If the trend resumes after, the price action might be less clear; exactly what happened between August to mid-September.Downward channels tend to be more resilient due to their consistent and progressive speed.4H Chart and levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView Keep an eye on the bearish cross between the 4H MA 50 and 200.A rebound at the immediate support would be an important checkpoint for bulls to maintain – the mid-line of the downward channel tends to be spots to monitor.On the other hand, a break of the immediate support should engage a further continuation of the selloff.Levels of interest for EUR/USD trading:Resistance Levels:1.1630 Intermediate Pivot1.1750 mini-resistanceMain resistance 1.18 to 1.18301.19188 2025 highsSep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 ZoneSupport Levels:1.1560 to 1.16 support (immediate support)1.1470 Pivotal Support1.1350 to 1.14 Main Support August 1st lows at 1.13916Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Choppy Trading Dominates Most Read: Trade Setup to Watch: EUR/USD Breaks Ascending Trendline, Further Downside Ahead?Asian stock markets dropped sharply on Monday as renewed tensions in the US-China trade war worried investors, although there were early signs the fear was easing.The trade conflict escalated when the US and China exchanged fresh threats over the weekend, causing a widespread "risk-off" mood. However, US President Donald Trump later struck a more reassuring tone, suggesting things would "be fine" and that the US did not want to "hurt" China.Meanwhile, Beijing defended its restrictions on exports of rare earth materials as a response to US actions, but it did not announce any new taxes on US goods.Markets across the region reacted negatively: the broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (outside Japan) fell 1.6%, South Korea's index slid 1.3%, and Australia lost 0.6%. Chinese blue-chip stocks also fell 1.3%, although sectors like rare earth materials and semiconductors saw some gains. The Chinese market also showed some resilience after positive trade data indicated that exports were much stronger than expected.Trading was choppy due to holidays in Japan and the US.Japan's main Nikkei index was closed, but its futures plunged 5% on Friday due to political uncertainty surrounding the appointment of the new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi.However, Nikkei futures showed a small bounce on Monday, trading up 1.5% but still well below the last cash close.Chinese Exports Record Strongest Gain Since March In a sign of its economic strength despite the trade war, China's exports grew much faster than expected in September 2025, reaching their quickest pace in six months.China's total exports increased by 8.3% compared to the same month last year, hitting a total of $328.6 billion. This strong growth showed that Chinese producers were successfully finding new customers outside of the United States.Specifically, exports saw big jumps to regions like the European Union (up 14.2%) and the ASEAN countries in Southeast Asia (up 15.6%), as well as to South Korea (up 7.0%) and Australia (up 10.7%). In sharp contrast, China's exports to the US plummeted by 27.0%.The growth was broad, with high increases recorded for products like integrated circuits (up 23.3%), cars (up 10.8%), and ships (up 21.4%).However, exports of rare earth materials fell 7.6%, which is likely due to China's current restrictions on those exports.Overall, this strong export performance gives China a more confident position in its trade conflict with the US.European Session - European Shares Steady After Friday Selloff European stock markets stabilized and moved higher on Monday, recovering from a sharp drop on Friday that was caused by renewed tensions in the US-China trade war.The overall STOXX 600 pan-European index climbed 0.6%, recovering a significant portion of the losses seen after US President Donald Trump had threatened to impose 100% taxes on Chinese goods.The market mood improved after Trump softened his tone over the weekend. The gains were driven mainly by increases in technology and mining stocks.Among national markets, France's CAC 40 led the way, rising 0.9%, after the country quickly reappointed Sebastien Lecornu as Prime Minister, just four days after his resignation.Individual stocks also saw big moves: AstraZeneca rose 0.7% after it agreed to a deal with the US government to sell some medicines at a discount in exchange for relief from tariffs.German software firm PSI Software soared 37% after confirming that private equity firm Warburg Pincus would buy the company for over 700 million euros.Finally, French firm Exosens jumped nearly 13% after a Greek night vision company announced plans to buy a significant stake in it.On the FX front, the US dollar was slightly weaker overall on Monday, though it showed mixed results against individual currencies.The index that tracks the dollar's value against a group of major currencies dipped 0.1%. The euro remained stable against the dollar at $1.1622.However, the dollar grew stronger against the Japanese yen, rising 0.5% to 151.89 yen.Meanwhile, the Chinese currency, the offshore yuan, gained 0.2% after reports showed China's export growth was strong in September.Other currencies also saw gains against the dollar: the Australian dollar jumped 0.8%, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.3%, and the British pound edged up 0.1%.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices soared to a new all-time high on Monday, reflecting increased safe-haven demand due to the renewed US-China trade tensions and ongoing expectations for US interest rate cuts.Spot gold was up 1.5%, setting a new record above $4,078 per ounce, with US gold futures also surging over 2%. Silver also mirrored this move by reaching its own record high. This rush into precious metals shows that investors remain cautious about the global economic and geopolitical environment.Oil prices moved higher on Monday, recovering from a sharp drop on Friday.Both major types of crude oil, Brent and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) had fallen by around 4% on Friday, hitting their lowest prices since May. However, the market bounced back on Monday because of the possibility that the presidents of the world's two largest economies (and biggest oil users) might hold talks.If these trade tensions ease, it could boost global economic growth and, consequently, the demand for oil. As a result, Brent crude futures rose by 1.5% to trade at $63.67 a barrel, and WTI crude futures also gained 1.54% to reach $59.81 a barrelEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, it is a rather quiet day from a data perspective with the OPEC + monthly report the main data release.Besides that we once again have a host of central bank speakers. Tariff and trade war developments will be in focus as markets wait for any developments or comments around a potential deal or discussions which could ease tensions between the US and China which could lead to improved sentiment.For more information on the week ahead, read Markets Weekly Outlook – Geopolitical peace and turmoil ; Third week of shutdown For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX index has pulled back to the top of the channel it broke out of last week.A gap up over the weekend has left the index trading higher than its Friday close with a potential golden cross pattern (s0-day MA crosses above 100-day MA) hinting at the potential for further upside.Given the risks present at the start of the week a lot will hinge on US-China trade war developments which could shape the overall risk narrative.Immediate upside resistance for now rests at 24500 before the 24665 swing high from July 10 comes into focus.A move to the downside will face support at 24200 before the confluence area around 24000 comes into focus.DAX Index Daily Chart, October 13. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 10thAfter an almost flawless run since June, equity markets finally met their match. Wall Street closed deep in the red as profit-taking and risk aversion swept the board. The Nasdaq plunged 3.5%, marking its sharpest daily decline in months, while the S&P 500 and Dow followed suit. The selloff didn’t spare cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum down roughly 8% since the session opened amid broad liquidation flows.The causes? After President Trump’s comments hinting at new tariffs, a mix of renewed US-China tensions reignited trade war fears.With the U.S. government shutdown extending, metals rallying to record highs, the US Dollar making a comeback, and many mentions of overstretched equity valuations, the Market saw a perfect setup to lock in profits. (A small parenthesis to announce that the BLS will publish the CPI data on the 24th of October, announcement made during the afternoon.)The red bars across the screens tell the story. Rough day for Equities – Source: TradingView Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook – Geopolitical peace and turmoil ; Third week of shutdownUS Stock Market outlook – S&P 500 breaks channel, Equities in the red to close the weekCanadian employment makes a comeback – USD/CAD reverses Yet, outside of markets, the world offered some respite: Maria Corina Machado, main opposition leader of the Maduro Venezuelan regime, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.Peace is materializing in the Middle East, with the IDF beginning its withdrawal under the Trump peace plan, paving the way for the release of the Israeli hostages within the next 62 hours.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView It's the second risk-off session in this week – Watch how it drags sentiment looking forward.Next week will be very interesting.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, October 10 – Source: OANDA Labs Today was largely the most volatile FX session we have seen in a while.Things had been calm before the Trump tweet relaunching the Trade WarA typical day for Forex risk-off flows, the NZD and particularly the AUD which had enjoyed the past risk-on weeks, have got wrecked from the daily session. This helped the bleeding JPY for the second day and same for the CHF which also had struggled recently.A look at Economic data releasing through Sunday evening and Monday's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Markets head into the weekend on alert — Sunday’s Chinese trade data (Sep) will be the key highlight, with exports expected to rebound around +6% YoY and imports seen at +1.5%.The figures will come alongside New Zealand’s Business PSI (Sep) and the start of the IMF Meetings, which could deliver additional market-moving commentary.Traders should also stay alert for geopolitical headlines — particularly Beijing’s reaction to recent US comments, as well as developments out of France and Japan that could add off-market volatility Monday’s open.Early next week features Fed and BoE speeches, the US Budget Statement, and RBA Meeting Minutes on Monday. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review – Equities flashing red, peace in the Middle East and key milestones in Metals It has been a tense week for global markets as the US government shutdown enters its second week. What had initially seemed like a non-event is now beginning to rattle investors. The growing uncertainty around the absence of economic data and a huge US Dollar rally has started to weigh on sentiment, breaking the market’s steady bullish rhythm since late September.Risk assets are blinking. Equities and cryptocurrencies are showing cracks after a relentless climb to new records since September 23. The Dow Jones reached a record 47,000 last Friday and has since rolled over and failed to reclaim those highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq followed during today’s action, retreating toward four-week lows as profit-taking intensified. Bitcoin, which had just set new all-time highs to $125,700 on Monday, also faced sharp outflows. The ongoing steep selloff is dragging the total crypto market cap back below $4 trillion. Cryptocurrency total Market cap – October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Some geopolitical tensions have added fuel to the volatility. This morning, President Trump reignited his long-standing trade feud with China, accusing President Xi Jinping of “manipulating global trade for unfair advantage.” His comments — delivered through a series of pointed remarks on Truth Social — sent an uneasy tone across markets. The much-anticipated meeting between the two leaders at the APEC summit in South Korea in November should see further delay.Meanwhile, metals continued to shine in the chaos. Silver extended its rally, surging another 4% and breaking above $50 for the first time on record. Gold broke $4,000, marking another milestone, but some waves of volatility are seen at the highs. Will the precious metal close above the milestone at the end of the week? Most Read: Silver On The Highest Price Since 1980. Is History About to Repeat Itself? But not all headlines were grim. For good geopolitical news, the Gaza war seems to be approaching its end with Israel and Hamas both agreeing to the Trump 20-point Plan.Israeli soldiers officially retracted behind the yellow line, which should lead to the return of all the hostages in the next 72 hours, with US forces starting to enter Gaza to begin the transition period.Let’s look at what’s coming up for next week.Weekly performance from different asset classes Weekly Asset Performance, October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView The weekly performance is extremely volatile across all types of asset-classes but I want to point your attention to the immense risk-off flows that have started around 10:00 this morning.Ethereum yet again led the action by being the first one to move – Keep an eye on it for the time to come. Read More:US Stock Market outlook – S&P 500 breaks channel, Equities in the red to close the weekCanadian employment makes a comeback – USD/CAD reverses Let’s dive into next week’s action. Expect A LOT of volatility.The Week Ahead – Still no BLS data but key speeches expectedAsia Pacific Markets - Focus on China and Australia Asia-Pacific traders face a relatively busy week, dominated by Chinese trade and inflation figures, Australia’s employment data, and ongoing political strains in Japan.The week starts quietly on Sunday with New Zealand’s Business NZ PSI for September, before turning to China’s trade balance later in the evening. Exports and imports will be closely scrutinized to confirm that last month’s modest rebound in external demand is holding. Consensus looks for exports to rise 6% YoY and imports to climb 1.5%, suggesting steady but uneven momentum.The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Meeting Minutes will be released on Monday. The AUD has been holding strong against most majors and particularly against its neighbor, the NZD, with Chinese stimulus providing a better outlook for Australia.Asia traders will also look into Chinese inflation data on Tuesday to monitor whether the ongoing deflation (currently -2.3% y/y) will continue, which should prompt or stop further stimulus from the PBoC.Wednesday is the busiest session for AUD traders, with a comprehensive Australian labor market update due at 20:30 ET. Employment change is expected to rise by 17K after last month’s decline of -5.4K, taking the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Beyond the data, Japan remains in the spotlight following Sanae Takaichi's election as head of the LDP. While the Nikkei celebrated the appointment of the first woman in power in Japan, the yen weakened sharply amid mounting fiscal concerns and a coalition deadlock with Komeito. The coming week will be crucial to see whether progress is made on forming a government and whether the JPY continues to bleed.US, Europe and UK Markets - key speeches from Powell, Lagarde and Macklem Turning back to the Occident:Key data watchers center their attention on the UK labor data (Tuesday) and industrial production (Wednesday), both crucial for gauging whether the Bank of England’s projections are well priced.Cuts have been priced out for the BoE with still crippling inflation, particularly food inflation, which starts to hurt British citizens – Tough repercussions of Brexit.Meanwhile, Europe will see its EU Zone Inflation data on Friday, but all eyes are on the ECB President Lagarde’s speech on Thursday (12:00 ET), where she’s expected to address recent market turbulence and risks to growth.France is expected to announce a new government and Prime Minister soon, possibly restoring short-term confidence in the Euro after a rough week of political weakness.Across the Atlantic, the US calendar is stacked with high-profile speeches from Fed Chair Powell, Bowman, Waller, and Barr. U.S. retail Sales, PPI, and Jobless Claims are usually released but are still delayed because the BLS and Census Bureau are not open during the shutdown.Finally, BoC Governor Macklem joins the global central bank chorus on Thursday 13:30 after stressing trade and investment weakness in recent remarks. During that speech, markets might also look to learn more about the US-Canada trade deal developments. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver Breaks $50 Barrier: Spot silver surged to $50.02 per ounce, its highest level since 1980, marking a 70% year-to-date gain — outperforming gold’s 51% rise.Severe Physical Shortage in London: Borrowing costs for silver hit a record 35% annualized rate, signaling tight supply as much of the metal remains locked in ETFs, limiting market liquidity.Macro Drivers & Fed Watch: Investor demand for safe-haven assets grows amid U.S. budget gridlock, stock market risks, and Fed independence concerns. Silver prices are soaring, breaking above the key $50 per ounce level and reaching their highest point since 1980. On Friday, spot silver touched $50.02, briefly spiking above $51 during intraday trading — a 3.7% daily gain. Although a moderate correction followed, the overall trend remains strongly bullish.Since the start of the year, silver has surged over 70%, making it one of the top-performing commodities. By comparison, gold has gained 51% over the same period.Flight to Safe Havens Fuels the RallyThe rally in silver prices reflects a broader move toward safe-haven assets. Prolonged budget gridlock in the U.S., concerns about an overheated stock market, and growing doubts about the Federal Reserve’s independence are prompting investors to shift capital into tangible, inflation-resistant assets. Silver, Daily Timeframe, source: TradingView Alongside gold, silver is viewed as a classic hedge during times of political and economic uncertainty. However, its lower liquidity and smaller market size make its price movements more volatile than gold’s.Supply Crunch in London Sparks Market TensionsOne of the key catalysts behind the current rally is the deepening shortage of physical silver in London, one of the world’s main storage and trading hubs. The cost of borrowing silver in the London market has skyrocketed to an annualized rate of 35%, signaling severe tightness in physical supply.While demand for physical silver continues to rise, much of the available stock remains locked up as collateral for ETFs, unavailable for active trading. This limits market liquidity and intensifies upward price pressure.Price Gap Between London and New York WidensAnother troubling signal for traders is the growing spread between spot silver prices in London and futures contracts in New York. The gap has now exceeded $2.50, with futures trading at a discount. Spread between spot and futures price of Silver, source: TradingView This disparity could encourage physical shipments of silver from the U.S. to the U.K. — an arbitrage move that raises logistics costs and further tightens supply.Echoes of 1980 — Will the Past Return?The current situation evokes memories of the 1980 silver saga, when the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the global silver market. At that time, prices reached an all-time high of $52.50 per ounce, followed by a dramatic crash that ended a speculative bubble. While today’s fundamentals are markedly different — driven by investment demand, geopolitical tensions, and supply constraints — the historical parallel serves as a cautionary reminder against investor euphoria. Silver, Monthly Timeframe, source: TradingView Inflation in Focus — CPI Data Could Steer the MarketNext week, investors will closely watch the U.S. CPI inflation report. Despite the ongoing government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed that the release will proceed as scheduled.These data could play a crucial role in shaping expectations for Federal Reserve policy, potentially influencing the U.S. dollar’s direction — and, in turn, the precious metals market, particularly silver and gold. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold (XAU/USD) surged 8.5% since late September, breaking above US$4,000 to hit a new all-time high of US$4,059.The rally is driven by demand for inflation hedges and fears of fiat currency debasement amid fiscal concerns.Technical indicators show an overstretched uptrend, raising the risk of a short-term pullback below US$4,012.The medium-term uptrend remains intact, as Gold stays above its key 20-day and 50-day moving averages. This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “Gold (XAU/USD): In a bullish consolidation above US$3,688 despite a firmer US dollar”, published on 26 September 2025.The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have indeed shaped the expected bullish impulsive up move sequence and rallied by 8.5% since 26 September 2025, broke above the US$3,865 resistance highlighted in our previous analysis, and hit a fresh all-time intraday high of US$4,059 on Wednesday, 8 October 2025.Interestingly, the US dollar also rebounded over the same period, where the US Dollar Index rose by 1.4% to hit a two-month high.Inflation hedge and debasement trade are supporting the major uptrend in Gold The macro narrative that is supporting the ongoing major bullish trend in the previous yellow metal that surpassed the key US$4,000 psychological level has been a sticky inflation trend in the US (as an inflationary hedge), and “debasement trade” where growing fiscal concerns in the world’s biggest economies, such as the US, led to a bet against (distrust) fiat currencies.Macro factors drive the medium-term and longer-term trends, but within such trends, there will be mean-reversion price action behaviours that can last for multiple days as leveraged speculators adjust their positions.At this juncture, the current seven-week of bullish acceleration in Gold (XAU/USD) has reached a potential tipping point for a multi-day mean reversion decline within its medium-term uptrend phase. Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 10 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term & major trends as of 10 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bearish bias below US$4,012 for a potential mean reversion decline scenario to unfold for Gold (XAU/USD) within its medium-term uptrend to expose the intermediate supports at US$3,892, US$3,864, and US$3,834/3,819 (also the rising 20-day moving average) (see Fig. 1)Key elements The medium-term uptrend phase for Gold (XAU/USD) since the bullish breakout of its “Ascending Triangle” range resistance on 29 August 2025 remains intact as price actions remain above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (see Fig. 2)The daily Bollinger Bandwidth of Gold (XAU/USD), a measurement of the volatility of its trend, has jumped significantly from 26 September 2025’s value of 8.6 to 9 October 2025’s value of 12.7 (see Fig. 2).This observation, seen in the Bollinger Bandwidth, suggests the current medium-term uptrend phase has reached an overstretched condition that increases the risk of a mean reversion decline scenario for Gold (XAU/USD) (see Fig. 2).The hourly RSI momentum indicator of Gold (XAU/USD) has continued to flash out a short-term bearish momentum condition as it remained capped below a descending resistance at the 50 level, in turn supporting a mean reversion decline scenario (see Fig. 1).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above the US$4,012 key short-term resistance on Gold (XAU/USD) invalidates the mean reversion decline scenario to kickstart a new bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$4,084/4,087 and US$4,122/4,150. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 9thNow up above 2% on the week, many Markets and assets can't ignore the ongoing rally in the US Dollar.Between resilient consumers – with, for example, Airlines like Delta giving out strong future expectations – and the Trump Administration-engineered Middle East deal agreed by both parties now, the US is getting back on its feet.Indeed, some questions are arising in concern of the strength of the US Economy. Despite some job losses and tariffs, how is it that company earnings and retail sales are still growing so much ?Some very interesting pieces convey that US Equities at record highs and filthy rich Boomers about to retire may provide a resilient US Consumption even if jobs decrease.It is one of the first known times in humanity that old generations retire as rich as boomers are now, which provides unforeseen challenges for inflation, even if the economy/employment takes a hit.About the Middle East deal, Israel agreed to the 20-Point Trump Plan to end the Gaza War and the Hamas leader agreeing to the plan just about an hour ago. Read More:How investors and traders can gauge the US labor market amid the BLS shutdownUS stocks sector divergence raises red flagsDow Jones Technical Outlook: Dow Tests Key Confluence Level. Is Another 500 + Point Slide Incoming? Back to the US Dollar, it's steep rally started to attract profit-taking flows in Equities, which corrected for the second time this week (particularly the Dow Jones).Gold also corrected above $100 from its $4,060 record highs in a sudden selloff – Similar flows can be seen in FX Markets and Cryptocurrencies.The charts are still far from bearish when looking at how much things have rallied this year.However, some concerns may arise: The 2025 trade has been about the United States losing its status as the Global leader, with the Trump Administration's efforts to isolate the US, particularly in the beginning of the year. But, the US is regaining some confidence, helping Ukraine again and resolving global conflicts.The US Dollar falling from 110.00 in January to 96.00 in July definitely assisted all assets to rally. Now, what will happen if the US Dollar goes the other way? Today might have been a snapshot of these flows.(I invite you to take a look at our most recent Dollar Index analysis!)Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView As mentioned in the title, the US Dollar had no pity for other assets.Every asset class is closing down, even Silver after breaking the $50 level. It is pretty logical: Almost every assets are denominated in US Dollar. When one goes up, the other tends to go down, even if logically, the relationship is not a 1 to 1.However, when such flows become trends, it tends to rock markets quite a bit.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, October 9 – Source: OANDA Labs The USD rally didn't even leave any crumbs for other FX currencies. Only the Japanese Yen finishes slightly higher on the session (except against the Greenback) – A given looking at how fast it had been selling off since Monday and when looking at other asset-performance.Risk-off flows may still attract players to the Yen, at least when really nothing else is rallying.A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The daily session isn't exactly over, with Fed's Daly appearing later today and Bowman speaking now.But most importantly, AUD traders will have to log in to listen to RBA Governor Bullock's speech at 18:00 ET.Tomorrow focuses almost only on North America, with a particular focus on Canadian Employment at 8:30 AM ET (expected at +5K – Expectations tend to be volatile), and the U-of-Mich Surveys at 10:00 A.M. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US government shutdown, which began at midnight on October 6, shows no sign of ending soon — and many now expect it could at least become the second-longest in US history.Despite six Democratic attempts to pass a funding bill, the Senate has repeatedly rejected proposals to reopen the government. Length of the different US Government shutdowns – Source: Statista - Reposting of the graph published in our October 2 Market Wrap The current shutdown has been ongoing for nine days already – The length of it already surpasses 14 of the previous ones, with some lasting only one day, like during the 1980s. There are, however, faint hopes for a resolution, with growing pressure from agencies, unions, and private-sector partners potentially pushing lawmakers to reach a deal in the coming weeks.Because of the ongoing shutdown, even Marco Rubio, one of the US top diplomats, will not be able to attend the Paris meeting about the future for Gaza, as peace in the Middle East comes closer.For now, the impact on economic visibility is clear. With most “non-essential” government functions halted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — responsible for the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Weekly Jobless Claims — is temporarily closed.This leaves traders and analysts without two of the most critical labor market indicators.So, where can investors look to fill the data gap and gauge the health of US employment while the shutdown persists? Let's discover this just below. Read More:US stocks sector divergence raises red flagsDow Jones Technical Outlook: Dow Tests Key Confluence Level. Is Another 500 + Point Slide Incoming?Nasdaq 100: Short to medium-term bullish trends intact amid AI bubble fearsPrivate data makes a comeback Private surveys provide valuable insight into the US labor market.While they typically move markets less than official BLS data, they’re now attracting increased attention amid the government shutdown.The most widely followed — and most market-moving — is the ADP Private Employment Report, which recently showed a decline of 32,000 jobs. It is getting more attention, particularly as it provides a seemingly more precise picture (when looking at the huge revisions from BLS data in 2025). ADP Private Employment in the past 12 months, starting to plateau – Source: ADPEmployment Other indicators help to fill the gap: the Challenger Job-Cut Report offers a monthly look at layoffs, while the Gallup Job Creation Index (released quarterly, so not very timely) gives a sentiment-based measure of hiring conditions.The ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs also include employment sub-indexes, offering additional clues about job trends across sectors.Even private institutions have stepped up their data releases — for instance, a Bank of America survey showed slower job growth and rising claims despite steady wage gains, and Carlyle Group estimated that the US added just 17,000 jobs in September.While the ADP report remains the benchmark among these alternatives, this period could see new private datasets gain prominence — especially those that prove more consistent or predictive of official labor trends once BLS operations resume. Prediction-Markets Shutdown length expectations, October 9, 2025 – Source: Kalshi Public data also isn't done yet Public data isn’t totally absent when assessing the US labor market — a few key Federal Reserve surveys continue operating even during the shutdown.These surveys offer timely snapshots of employment trends across various districts, providing indirect but valuable clues about hiring and job stability.The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey (the most market-moving) and the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey ask firms whether employment and work hours are rising or falling, giving an early read on hiring momentum in the Eastern US.The Richmond Fed runs manufacturing and service sector surveys, where companies report payroll changes and labor availability.Further west, the Kansas City Fed’s Tenth District surveys and the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing and Service Outlooks measure shifts in employment and wages through monthly questionnaires sent to local businesses.Though these regional reports vary in scope, their employment sub-indices tend to move consistently with national labor data, making them valid proxies until the Bureau of Labor Statistics resumes regular publication.Individual Fed regional presidents tend to mention these studies when they appear, which helps them assess their own decision-making during FOMC meetings.Too Long, Didn't read – What data releases should I focus on as a trader Private Surveys:ADP Private Employment (released monthly)Challenger Job LayoffsEmployment Sub-Indexes from the ISM PMI dataBank surveys like those offered from the Bank of AmericaPublic Surveys, mostly from the Federal ReserveNew York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing SurveyRichmond Fed's Manufacturing SurveyMarkets don't seem to care too much about the shutdown, at least for now US Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is up 2% since October 1st, not showing the slightest care.Even legendary traders and Hedge Fund managers like Citadel's Ken Griffin repeat that the shutdown will have no material impact for Markets.Still, Markets start to react when nobody seems to care anymore, so keep your eyes open.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Nasdaq 100 hits record high: The index rallied 1.2% on 8 October 2025, reaching a new all-time closing high of 25,137, supported by continued tech sector strength.AI bubble concerns rise: Market chatter grows around US$1 trillion in “AI circular deals” among OpenAI, Nvidia, AMD, and Oracle, sparking valuation worries.Technical outlook remains bullish: The Nasdaq 100 stays within its ascending channel, above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.Market breadth improves: A rising share of Nasdaq 100 stocks now trades above short- and medium-term moving averages, reinforcing bullish momentum. The Nasdaq 100 rallied by 1.2% on Wednesday, 8 October 2025, and scaled to another fresh all-time closing high of 25,137.All in all, the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 has started October on a firm footing with a month-to-date gain of 1.35% as of 8 October 2025, trailing just behind the current top performer, the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.70%) among the major US benchmark stock indices.$1 trillion AI circular deals Fig. 1: AI circular deals among OpenAI, Nvidia, Oracle, AMD & major technology hardware providers (Source: Bloomberg News, 8 Oct 2025) In the recent week, there has been a growing chatter of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble that has formed due to circular deals that involved the generative AI market leader, OpenAI, and other major technology hardware providers, as well as chip makers; Nvidia, AMD, and Oracle Corp, that could amount to US$1 trillion (see Fig. 1).These intertwined deals have revived fears of a bubble and raised questions about whether Nvidia (also the largest component stock in the Nasdaq 100) is investing heavily to prop up the market and keep companies to spending on its products.In addition, OpenAI is still burning cash and does not expect to be cash-flow positive until around 2030.Despite the rising fears of an AI bubble, the technical structure of the Nasdaq 100 remains bullish. Let’s now break down the latest technical analysis elements, short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), and relevant short-term key levels to watch for the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 futures). Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index minor trend as of 9 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: Market breadth of Nasdaq 100 (% of stocks above 20-day/50-day MA) as of 9 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) The medium-term uptrend phase of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index remains intact from the 2 September 2025 low of 22,979.Bullish bias above 24,795 short-term pivotal support for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 25,370 and 25,590/25,640 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2).Key elements The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index have continued to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel since 2 September 2025 and traded above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (see Fig. 2).The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index has remained supported by an ascending trendline, which suggests short-term bullish momentum remains intact (see Fig. 2).Market breadth of the Nasdaq 100 has continued to improve. The percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their respective 20-day and 50-day moving averages has increased steadily from 25 September 2025 to 8 September 2025 (% of stocks above 20-day moving averages increased from 46% to 57%, and % of stocks above 50-day moving averages increased from 40% to 55% (see Fig. 3).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 24,795 key short-term support on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline sequence to materialise, exposing the next intermediate supports at 24,620 and 24,380. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: AUD/USD Forecast: Navigating US Government Shutdown & Technical SignalsEUR/USD continued its slide this morning but is trading flat on the day.Yesterday's daily candle close though has broken a long-tern ascending trendline and sets the pair up for a potential move lower. There is a caveat however, the fundamental picture and technical picture are flashing mixed signals.EUR/USD Paints a Mixed Picture EUR/USD seemed poised to test the 1.2000 psychological level heading into the Federal Reserve meeting on September 17. After the meeting the fundamental factors such as monetary policy still seemed to support the idea as well.Many viewed the Federal Reserve meeting and Fed Chair Powell's speech as dovish in nature. However, the fact that the Fed only saw one rate cut in 2026 and 2027 did signal to me that we could see a bit of a reaction in the US dollar.Such a reaction did materialize with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallying in the 3 days after the FOMC meeting. Since then the DXY has continued its impressive rise and this in part is down to the Fed meeting as well as the US Government shutdown. The lack of high impact data from the US has actually benefitted the greenback.Now the question is will the greenback be able to hold onto its gains once the US government shutdown ends? This question may hold the key to the EUR/USD technical setup below.Technical Analysis - EUR/USD From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD has broken the key confluence level which rests around the 1.16300 area.In doing so the pair saw a daily candle close below the medium-term ascending trendline and hinting at a potential change in trend.The pair is also on course for a fourth successive day of declines as price is current being held back by the 100-day MA which rests at 1.1633.The trendline break hints at a move lower toward the 1.14000 handle and potentially a deeper pullback all the way down to 1.1058 handle.The problem with this setup though is the fundamental picture is at odds with this outlook especially when the US government shutdown ends.Thus the move may not play out smoothly but there is definitely a potential opportunity to keep an eye on.The one concern for now is the period-14 RSI which is currently in oversold territory on the daily timeframe. This could lead to a short-term bounce toward the most recent swing high at 1.1740 or potentially the 50-day MA at 1.1691 before continuing on its downward path.EUR/USD Daily Chart, October 9, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - EUR/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Short on the EUR/USD with 56% of traders Net-Short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are Short means EUR/USD could rise in the near-term. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Softbank Surges 11%, Nikkel Rallies 1.8% Most Read: USD/JPY: Current JPY weakness is driven by short-term sentiment as it disconnects from US-Japan yieldsThe Japanese stock market, particularly the tech-focused Nikkei index, soared to record highs on Thursday, largely fueled by excitement over robotics and Artificial Intelligence (AI).The main driver of the rally was SoftBank Group, an index heavyweight, whose stock jumped over 11%. This surge came after the investment giant announced it had purchased the robotics business of Switzerland's ABB, reinforcing its strategy to combine robotics and AI. Although the initial announcement was overlooked, investors bought into the AI-powered robot vision on Thursday.Another robot maker, Yaskawa Electric, also saw a significant boost, rising 9.5%. These two stocks significantly contributed to the overall market increase, with SoftBank alone accounting for over half of the Nikkei's gain.Consequently, the Nikkei 225 index climbed 1.8% to close at an all-time high of 48,580.44. The broader Topix index, however, had a smaller gain of 0.7%.In contrast, the auto sector was among the worst performers, dropping 1.3%, despite the fact that a weak yen usually helps exporters like carmakers by increasing the value of their overseas profits. Toyota specifically fell by over 2%.The overall positive momentum for Japanese stocks began earlier in the week following the election of Sanae Takaichi, a proponent of economic stimulus, as the leader of the ruling party, positioning her to become the next Prime Minister.European Session - European Shares Open Lower European shares opened lower Thursday, pulled down by banks after HSBC fell hard. The bank’s plan to privatise Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Bank may mean a big shift – the deal is valuated around HK$106 billion (about $13.6 billion).The pan‑European STOXX 600 hovered near its recent high, only 0.1 % down at 573.4 points.Shares of HSBC dropped roughly 6.6 %, while the wider banking index lost about 1.2 %. Lloyds Banking Group fell 3.4 % as it appears likely to need extra cash to cover costs for motor‑finance customers.Germany’s Gerresheimer slumped 10.7 % after it cut its annual outlook – a sharp move for the packaging‑and‑medical‑gear maker.In contrast, the basic‑resources sector rose 1.4 %, tracking higher copper and iron‑ore prices. The technology index ticked up 0.4 %, led by France’s Alten, which announced it will separate the chairman and CEO roles as part of a governance overhaul.Burberry gained 2.4 % after Deutsche Bank upgraded the luxury label from “hold” to “buy”.Overall the market stayed close to its record, with mining and tech gains helping to limit the losses made by the banking‑heavy drop.On the FX front, the US dollar is continuing its rally this week, reaching a two-month high, mainly because two other major currencies, the euro and the Japanese yen are struggling.The euro has been weak following a political crisis in France, where the Prime Minister and his government resigned earlier this week. Although President Emmanuel Macron plans to quickly name a new Prime Minister, the political uncertainty has weighed on the currency.The euro dropped to 1.1609, its lowest level since late August, and is down nearly 1% for the week.The Japanese yen is also under pressure. Its weakness comes after a conservative, Sanae Takaichi, was chosen to lead Japan's ruling party, which is expected to support policies that keep interest rates low. The yen fell to 153.07 per dollar levels not seen since February and has dropped over 3.8% this week.These significant declines in the euro and the yen have made the US dollar more appealing to investors, causing the US Dollar Index to climb 0.20% to 99.038.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices remained mostly flat on Thursday as investors tried to balance two major global events.On one hand, there was news of a ceasefire deal in Gaza, which suggested that tensions in the Middle East might calm down, potentially leading to lower oil prices.On the other hand, peace talks in Ukraine have stopped. This suggests that sanctions on Russia will likely continue, which could limit Russia's oil exports and help keep prices high.As these two factors pulled in opposite directions, the price of Brent crude rose slightly to $66.38 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also saw a small increase to $62.66 a barrel.For more on the OPEC + output hike and Oil prices, read OPEC + Delivers Modest Output Hike, Brent Crude Rises 1.7%. What Next for Oil Prices?Gold prices slightly dropped on Thursday after hitting a major milestone the previous day.It would appear market participants sold off some of their gold to take profits after the price soared past $4,000/oz for the first time ever on Wednesday.This record high was reached because of general economic worries, geopolitical tensions, and the expectation that the U.S. might cut interest rates again later this year.Spot gold was last trading at $4,029.86 per ounce, down a small amount after reaching its record peak of $4,059.05.Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Prices Up 1.5% on the Day. Is Gold's $4,000 Breakout Sustainable?Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, it is a rather quiet day from a data perspective for both the US and European sessions.There is once again a host of speakers from the Federal Reserve and ECB throughout the day and that could shake some volatility. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX index has pulled back to the top of the channel it broke out of last week.This sets the index up for a potential 900 point rally to the upside.Given that global equities have started the week on the front foot, European equities are lagging which could bode well for the DAX if price can hold above the 24200 level in the early part of the week.The index has now broken above the 24665 July swing high with Immediate upside resistance now resting at 24750 before the 25000 psychological level comes into focus.A move to the downside will face support at 25500 and 24200 before the confluence area around 24000 comes into focus.DAX Index Daily Chart, October 9. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The Japanese yen has weakened sharply, losing 3.7% against the USD as markets priced in pro-stimulus expectations from new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi, fuelling the “Takaichi Trade.”Despite short-term JPY weakness, Japan’s consumer confidence continues to improve, supporting the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) gradual rate hike stance.The BoJ’s policy rate curve remains upward trending, signalling gradual monetary tightening into 2026.The US–Japan 10-year yield spread has broken (intraday) below key support at 2.47%, a potential signal for medium-term USD/JPY weakness ahead. In the past three sessions since Monday, 6 October 2025, the Japanese yen has weakened significantly as it shed -3.7% against the US dollar at the time of writing to print an intraday high of 153.00 on Wednesday, 8 October 2025 after the weekend election of fiscal and monetary dove Sanae Takaichi as the leader of the LDP ruling party in Japan and is likely to become Japan's new prime minister.The USD/JPY shot past the 150.00 psychological level and printed a current intraday level of 152.94 as the prospects of a 25 basis points interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in Q4 2025 have dampened, triggered by the “Takaichi Trade”.Given that Takaichi is a protégée of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the market chatter of “Abenomics 2.0” has gained traction, where the new Japanese PM may “push” the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to revert to monetary policy easing and put a pause to its current monetary policy normalisation stance of gradually increasing interest rates in Japan.In this article, we will highlight three fundamental macro factors that suggest the current JPY weakness is likely not sustainable in the medium term and provide a short-term (1 to 3 days) outlook on the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.Japan’s consumer confidence continues to improve Fig. 1: Japan core-core CPI, Average Cash Earnings, Tankan Survey, Consumer Confidence as of Sep 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) One of the key economic data points, other than the inflation trend, that the BoJ monitors to determine and set the path of monetary policy in Japan, is consumer sentiment.The latest Japanese consumer confidence index, released last week, rose to 35.3 in September 2025 from 34.9 in August, hitting its highest level since December 2024 (see Fig. 1).A further improvement in consumer sentiment is likely to boost domestic demand in Japan, in turn, supporting the BoJ’s current monetary policy stance of a gradual rise in interest rates from the current level of 0.5%.BoJ remains on its path of interest rate hikes Fig. 2: Japan's implied policy rate curves as of 8 October 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Based on the latest data from the short-term interest rate futures market, the current policy rate curve has continued to trend upwards heading into next year (0.62% in December 2025 to 0.95% in September 2025) (see Fig. 2).Also, the current policy rate curve has shifted upwards from a month ago.The 10-year US Treasury/JGB yield spread has broken below a major support level on an intraday basis Fig. 3: Yield spreads of US Treasury/JGB with major trend of USD/JPY as of 9 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) The 10-year yield spread between the US Treasury note and JGB has broken below the 2.47% major support after it managed to trade above it for the entire month of September 2025. Right now, it is still trading at an intraday level of 2.43% at the time of writing (see Fig. 3).A weekly close below 2.47% is likely to cement a further narrowing of the 10-year US-Japan yield differential, and such a dynamic managed to trigger a medium-term decline in the USD/JPY from late December 2024 to mid-April 2025.Let’s now focus on the latest short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), relevant key elements, and key levels to watch on the USD/JPY. Fig. 4: USD/JPY minor trend as of 9 October 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 5: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 9 October 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Potential squeezed up for USD/JPY towards a major resistance. Bullish bias in any minor setbacks above 151.15 key short-term pivotal support for the next intermediate resistance to come in at 153.65/153.90 before the major resistance of 154.50 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 4).Key elements The USD/JPY has broken above the “Ascending Wedge” range resistance on Monday, 6 October 2025 now turns into a pull-back support at 150.50 (see Fig. 5).The major descending trendline of the USD/JPY in place since the 3 July 2024 swing high is now acting as a major resistance at 154.50 (see Fig. 5).The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the USD/JPY has exited from its overbought level and has not reached its oversold zone (below 30). These observations suggest a potential minor pull-back for the USD/JPY before a bullish move materializes (see Fig. 4).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below 151.15 key short-term support negates the bullish tone for a slide towards the next intermediate supports at 150.50 and 149.80. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 8Today's session saw the continuation of the weekly flows, with the US Dollar higher and Gold breaking new milestones. The US-Canada deal seems to be getting closer from the recent remarks made by Canada's Carney.US Equities sparked a huge reversal higher with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs, yet again.Nothing really explained yesterday's risk-off session, therefore dip buyers just came and bought things back.The Dow remains a lagger throughout this week after showing just a wick above the 47,000 threshold.In geopolitics, Trump mentioned in a roundtable talk that Middle East discussions are going towards the right direction and the US President should head to Egypt to finalize the Deal. You can read more about the Deal right here.The Royal Bank of New Zealand also surprised Markets with a 50 bps Jumbo cut (which was 50% priced in ahead of the decision). The news got followed with a huge selloff for the Kiwi before markets started to price out cuts later in 2026. A larger cut tends to generate higher economic prospects and future expectation expectations. Hence, the NZD still recovered most of what it had lost. You can access more on the rate decision here. Read More:North American mid-week Market update – US-Canada deal approachingWho said that the USD and Gold can't rally together?Weakness showdown: NZD vs JPY in the FX marketsCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView When looking at this daily asset picture, one may ask himself: If everything is going up, then what is giving ?The answer is in the Yen getting absolutely killed this week (take a look at USDJPY, catastrophic!). The CHF is also getting sold off quite aggressively with more dovish talks from the SNB – Carry trades are getting put back aggressively from what it seems.This makes even more sense when looking at the huge rallies in Crypto and Equities around the world. Kudos to the European Indices which are brushing off the usual French government mess ups and are rallying strongly nonetheless.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, October 8 – Source: OANDA Labs FX volatility is back strong! Look at the huge recovery in the NZD, something to keep an eye on and remember.Apart from that, weekly flows are continuing with the AUD still gaining (very consitent performer of the past month) with the CAD and USD just following each other.As mentioned just before, both the CHF and JPY are getting sold off aggressively in what could be a return of the Carry Trade. A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The next 24 hours in markets will be dominated by central bank chatter.The daily session concludes with a trio of Fed speakers — Kashkari, Barr, and Kashkari again — followed by Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations (20:00 ET).Thursday should be busier, even with the absence of US/BLS data : the ECB’s Meeting Accounts (07:30 ET) open the European session, followed by Fed Chair Powell at 08:30 ET, the US Jobless Claims, and a long lineup of Fed officials including Bowman, Barr, and Daly.Across the Pacific, traders will also watch New Zealand’s Business NZ PMI and a key speech from RBA Governor Bullock (18:00 ET) for clues on regional policy direction. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.