An article in the Wall Street Journal is getting some traction. Its based on a pdocast from last year, bear that in mind!In summary:Capital Group, a 94-year-old mutual fund powerhouse known for its conservative style, has made one of the biggest mainstream bets on bitcoin. The push is led by veteran portfolio manager Mark Casey, who says his approach is shaped by Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett, yet he has become one of the TradFi world’s most vocal bitcoin advocates.Casey, 54, has called bitcoin “one of the coolest things ever created” and has overseen investments that grew from under $1 billion to more than $6 billion in bitcoin-related firms over the past four years. He views bitcoin as a superior modern-day store of value compared with gold, arguing its price will eventually match or exceed gold’s share of global wealth. By contrast, he doubts other cryptocurrencies like ether will gain lasting value.--BTC update, hourly chart. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A spokesman for China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS):external environment is very severeuncertainties are risingsome firms having difficulties in operationsunemployment is higher due to graduation seasonwill expand domestic demandwill boost consumptionwill promote rebound in priceswill further stabilise the economywill stabilise employmentanti-involution measures have shown positive results on pricesproperty sector is still stabilising despite some volatility, efforts at destocking are continuing to show results--Earlier:China August Industrial Production +5.2% y/y, vs. expected 5.8%China house prices plunge even further in August, down 2.5% y/y (prior -2.8%)China - household savings rotating into equities amid active markets and policy tailwindsThe poor data is generating suggestions of more policy stimulus to come. That is an option of course, but what have seen in this cycle is pievemeal stimulus efforts onlys. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

more to comeIndustrial Production +5.2% y/y, a miss and lower than the rise in Julyexpected +5.8%, prior was 5.7%5.2% y/y is the slowest growth in 12 months Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD +0.5% y/y, a big missexpected 1.4%, prior was 1.6%property investment fell 12.9% in the January - August periodJanuary –August fixed asset investment growth hit a five-year lowRetail Sales +3.4% y/y, a big missexpected 3.8%, prior was 3.7%+3.4% is the slowest growth since November 2024Unemployment rate 5.3%, a six month highup from July's 5.2%This is disappointing data from China. Exports face tariff headwinds, while the weak property sector (house prices down, again, in August) weighs on domestic demand. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Chinese New House Prices -0.3% m/m in Augustprior -0.3%-2.5% y/yprior -2.8%Used home prices -0.58% m/m prior -0.55%---More:New home prices in first-tier cities -0.9% YoY in Augustprior -1.1%prices up in Shanghai, down in Beijing, Guangzhou, and ShenzhenSecond-hand home prices in first-tier cities -3.5% YoY in Augustprior -3.4%prices down in all of Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and ShenzhenSecond- and third-tier cities second-hand home prices -5.2% and -6.0% YoY respectivelyprior -5.6% and -6.4% respectively This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Deposits rose by 600bn yuan less YoY in August, likely as long-term deposits matured and funds shifted into the stock market.Non-bank deposits surge: Up ¥1.18tn in August, ¥550bn more YoY — suggesting household money moved into brokerage margin accounts and equity mutual funds.Wealth management products grew only slightly (¥150bn less than a year ago), reinforcing the idea that flows went mainly into equities.2.65m new A-share accounts opened in August (+35% MoM), a further sign of household savings rotating into equities amid active markets and policy tailwinds: Average daily A-share turnover hit ¥2.25tn, surpassing peaks of Sept 2024 and June 2015. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As I mention each week:As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online ... prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there.Well, this is not one of those cases. If your AUD/USD charts is reading around 0.6630, its displaying incorrect pricing. It happens sometimes, as 'retail' FX charts are usually based on the bid price and in this case your chart may be showing the bid is around 0.6630, due to lack of interest mainly. In the wholesale FX market, which admittedly is barely existent at this time of the week, the trading price is hardly changed from late Friday around 0.6645 or so. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today. From Chin we get economic activity data for August 2025. Expectations are for barely changed from July which, given the subdued domestic demand in China and headwinds to exports, is a win. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The US and China had trade talks on the weekend in Madrid.U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Prime Minister He Lifeng led their respective delegationstalks centered on TikTok, tariffs and the economy, the official said, offering no further details.The meeting has wrapped up according a post on Tik Tok. Tik Tok? Maybe there is a new dance from the meeting or something, I dunno. The plan is to resume talks on Monday. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all investingLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week. Indicative rates are not too much changed from late Friday levels:EUR/USD 1.1735USD/JPY 147.78GBP/USD 1.3550USD/CHF 0.7966USD/CAD 1.3845AUD/USD 0.6647NZD/USD 0.5951 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

S&P 500 Futures Analysis & Forecast: 6600 Rejected, Options Pin and VIX SignalsS&P 500 futures (ES) looked strong for most of last week, climbing steadily and carrying bullish momentum. By Friday’s close, that strength was tested and rejected. Price stalled at the 6600 round number, sellers stepped in, and order flow shifted decisively negative.For traders looking at the S&P 500 forecast, here’s what stood out across futures, the SPX options market, and the VIX.Futures Recap: From Steady Gains to a Stumble at 6600Early in the week (Sep 9–11) value areas and VWAP climbed each day, a textbook sign of a bullish trend. Buyers were willing to pay up, and futures reached the 6600 zone.On Thursday, that zone turned into resistance. ES hit the value area high near 6595–6600, but sellers absorbed every push.Friday’s session (Sep 12) stayed between 6600 on the top and 6575 on the bottom, closing closer to the lows. Order flow turned sharply negative into the bell, showing more traders were hitting the bid than lifting the ask. That weakness tilts the bias lower into this week unless buyers quickly reclaim 6600.SPX Options Pinning Below 6600Options activity confirmed the same story. The most traded contracts on Friday were the SPX 6590, 6595, and 6600 calls. The S&P 500 index settled at 6,584.28, leaving those strikes out of the money.This isn’t necessarily market makers “choosing” the close, but hedging dynamics around crowded strikes often pull prices into them. Traders call it pinning. The result reinforced 6590–6600 as a key ceiling that bulls need to clear.VIX and Volatility ContextFor newer readers, the VIX index reflects expected S&P 500 volatility over the next month, based on option pricing. A higher VIX signals more uncertainty, while a low VIX reflects calm conditions.The spot VIX closed Friday at 14.75, still historically low. But the VIX futures curve is steeply upward sloping. September contracts are at 15.65, while early 2026 contracts trade near 21.5.That shape tells us traders aren’t worried about immediate volatility but are willing to pay more for protection down the road. In other words, the surface looks calm, but hedging under the surface shows concern for turbulence later.Key Levels to Watch in S&P 500 FuturesResistance: 6595–6600 (round number and value area high)Support: 6574–6579 (value area low and VWAP cluster)Bullish above 6600: breakout targets 6625 and 6640Bearish below 6575: breakdown risks 6540 and 6520S&P 500 Futures ForecastThe setup is straightforward. While ES remains below 6600, the near-term bias is slightly bearish. A decisive breakdown under 6575 would likely speed up a move toward 6540–6520. Only a sustained reclaim of 6600 with strong buying flow would restore a bullish outlook.orderFlow Intel Score: –6.5 (Bearish Bias) The score runs on a scale from –10 to +10. A reading of –10 signals extreme bearish pressure, 0 is neutral, and +10 signals extreme bullish pressure. At –6.5, sellers currently hold a clear advantage. Futures price action, options flow, and volatility signals all suggest that until buyers reclaim 6600, downside pressure remains the dominant theme.? Decision Support by investingLive.com This S&P 500 futures analysis provides traders with a technical outlook and forecast based on both price structure and order flow behavior. While not a guarantee, it serves as a decision support tool to help traders and investors prepare for the week ahead. In any case, investors and traders should always do their own research and not take any information published on investingLive.com (formerly ForexLive.com) as financial advice. Always do your own research and always invest and trade at your own risk only. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Mon: Chinese Activity Data (Aug)Tue: UK Jobs Report (Jul), Italian CPI Final (Aug), EZ Industrial Production (Jul), German ZEW Survey (Sep), US Retail Sales (Aug) and Industrial Production (Aug), Canadian CPI (Aug)Wed: FOMC Announcement, BoC Announcement, BCB Announcement, Bank of Indonesia Announcement, ECB Wage Tracker, UK Inflation (Aug), EZ CPI Final (Aug), New Zealand GDP (Q2)Thu: BoE Announcement, Norges Bank Announcement, SARB AnnouncementFri: Quad Witching, BoJ Announcement, Japanese CPI (Aug), UK Retail Sales (Aug), Canadian Retail Sales (Jul)Chinese Activity Data (Mon)Chinese Retail Sales data for August is expected at 3.8% Y/Y (prev. 3.7%), Industrial Production is expected at 5.8% Y/Y (prev. 5.7%), and Fixed Asset Investments are expected at 1.4% Y/Y (prev. 1.6%). The desk at ING anticipates a slight recovery in Retail Sales to 4.0% Y/Y, underpinned by a rebound from July’s weather-related disruptions, whilst industrial production and fixed-asset investment are seen moderating to 5.6% Y/Y and 1.5% YTD, respectively. The monthly myriad of data sees the release of House Prices, which are expected to reinforce the weakening momentum in the property market. Analysts note that while July’s softness was partly attributed to adverse weather, “So, August will be an important gauge of whether the slowdown was a blip or the start of a trend”, posits ING.UK Jobs Report (Tue): Expectations are for the 3M unemployment rate for July to remain at 4.7% and headline 3M/YY wage growth to tick higher to 4.7% from 4.6%. As a reminder, the prior release saw the unemployment rate hold steady at 4.7%, employment change rise to 238k from 134k, the contraction in HMRC payrolls change slow to 8k from 26k, and headline 3M/YY earnings growth slow to a still-elevated level of 4.6% from 5.0%. At the time of the prior report, Morgan Stanley opined that “slack keeps building up in the UK labour market, but not at a pace that would tilt the BoE's firm focus away from food and headline inflation, onto the real economy”. This time around, MS looks for vacancies to be largely unchanged, a slowdown in employment growth to 200k and a pick-up in the unemployment rate to 4.7%. However, the desk highlights ongoing inaccuracies surrounding ONS data collection. From a pay perspective, MS expects ex-bonus 3M/YY wage growth of 4.64%, noting the absence of any major pay deals in July. From a policy perspective, a soft outturn could prompt some dovish pricing around the BoE; however, the looming inflation report the next day will likely temper the extent of such bets.US Retail Sales (Tue):Analysts expect US retail sales to rise +0.3% M/M in August (prev. 0.5%), while the ex-autos measure is seen rising +0.3% M/M, matching the July reading. Bank of America's monthly consumer checkpoint data notes total credit and debit card spending per household rose by 1.7% Y/Y in August (vs 1.8% Y/Y in July), with seasonally adjusted spending per household +0.4% M/M, the third straight increase. BofA also noted that income and spending growth diverged further in August, with weaker growth among younger generations and Gen X; slower labour-market gains, especially smaller pay bumps from job changes, are weighing on younger cohorts, the bank writes. Elsewhere, it said that easing housing costs, reflected in lower new rent payments, could help narrow the homeowner-renter spending gap.Canadian CPI (Tue):Canada inflation will help shape expectations for more easing from the BoC. Interest rates in Canada are currently set at the midpoint of the neutral estimate, but recent data has bolstered expectations for more easing due to a slowdown in economic growth and the labour market in the face of tariffs. Inflation has remained within the BoC's 1-3% target, albeit towards the top end of the range. Within the latest BoC Summary of Deliberations, the BoC noted how the current tariff scenario outlined how the BoC expects economic growth to resume in the third quarter and inflation to remain around 2%. It also noted that inflation occupied much of the deliberations, which shows the BoC are still cognizant of the inflation trajectory. Members agreed that the degree of firmness in underlying inflation was an important consideration for the policy decision in July.FOMC Announcement (Wed): The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 4.00-4.25% at next week’s confab, according to 105 of the 107 economists polled by Reuters. The decision will likely be underpinned by softening labour market conditions, including stalling job growth in August and downward revisions to prior 12-month employment data, which are now seen as outweighing inflation risks. There is a possibility that we could see dissents at the meeting, since not all Committee members are fully aligned on a September rate cut; Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter) and Fed's Schmid (2025 voter) could dissent to keep rates unchanged; and additionally, if his nomination is confirmed ahead of the meeting, there some speculate that Stephen Miran could even vote for a larger 50bps reduction, while Governors Bowman and Waller (who both have dovishly dissented previously) could also favour of a larger move, though this is seen as less likely. Wells Fargo writes that "since the FOMC last met in July, a more precarious picture of the labour market has emerged, while the inflation outlook has been little changed, and as a result, we expect the FOMC will resume lowering the fed funds rate at its September meeting with a 25bps cut." Money markets are fully discounting a 25bps reduction, and through the end of this year, are almost fully pricing in two further rate reductions in 2025 (70bps of cuts is being priced at the time of writing). Analysts will also be watching the updated economic projections; currently, the SEPs pencil in rates falling to 3.75-4.00% by the end of this year, and then down to 3.50-3.75% in 2026, being reduced further to 3.25-3.50% in 2027, before settling around the neutral rate of 3.00% in the long-term – 150bps below current levels (implying six 25bps reductions to the terminal rate). Wells Fargo says "the updated Summary of Economic Projections is likely to signal that additional easing will follow September's cut, with the fed funds rate likely to end 2025 and 2026 lower than previously projected." Wells thinks the updated dot plot is expected to signal increased easing, with the 2025 median projecting 75bps of cuts, up from 50bps in June, and the 2026 median falling 50bps to 3.125%, implying an additional 25bps cut. Longer-run projections are expected to remain unchanged, reflecting stable inflation and rising full-employment risks. Into the meeting, there are some uncertainties around voting members; Lawyers for President Trump asked the DC Court of Appeals to allow him to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook before next week’s FOMC meeting after a lower court blocked her removal while her lawsuit proceeds; meanwhile, the US Senate plans a full vote on Fed Board nominee Stephen Miran’s nomination Monday, leaving a narrow window for him to be sworn in before the meeting - Miran is likely to be a dovish member, if confirmed.BoC Announcement (Wed): The BoC is expected to resume rate cuts, taking interest rates to below the current midpoint of the BoC's neutral estimate. The majority of analysts surveyed by Reuters expect a 25bps rate cut, while also expecting another cut by year-end. Recent soft economic growth and labour market data has bolstered rate cut expectations as tariffs continue to weigh on the economy. The prior statement noted "if a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate”. Growth data disappointed while the labour market continues to deteriorate, with the unemployment rate rising to 7.1% from 6.9%. Money markets are now pricing in 23bps of easing at next week's meeting with 42bps of easing priced by year-end, which fully prices one rate cut, with a 68% probability of another by the end of 2025. ING is expecting a 25bps rate cut and another in Q4, and notes that CAD should remain weak in the crosses. Note, the upcoming meeting will be accompanied by the usual Governor Macklem press conference, but there will not be updated economic forecasts.BCB Policy Announcement (Wed):The weekly BCB economist poll has been suggesting that the Selic rate is expected to remain at the current 15.00% through the end of this year, with economists seeing a reduction to 12.5% next year. Oxford Economics says the BCB will take time before restarting a normalisation cycle. "Despite a sequence of positive inflation releases, we still expect the central bank to keep the benchmark Selic rate on hold at 15% until the beginning of 2026," OxEco says, noting that "long-term inflation expectations have reverted down to 3.5% in the past few weeks but remain above the target's midpoint, warranting caution from the BCB's board." In recent weeks, BCB Chief Galipolo said that interest rates are at a level they safely consider restrictive, inflation convergence to the target is happening slowly, and this is what has demanded a more restrictive monetary policy. Galipolo added that even with a restrictive interest rate, they continue to show resilience in the job market, which is still quite strong. Away from the central bank, but of course relevant for decision making, tariffs remain in heavy focus, and this week Brazil President Lula says he does not fear new sanctions from the US in a pre-recorded interview to Band TV.UK Inflation (Wed): Expectations are for August Y/Y headline CPI to rise to 3.9% from 3.8%, core to decline to 3.7% from 3.8% and services to remain at 5%. As a reminder, the prior release saw Y/Y headline CPI rise to 3.8% from 3.6%, core tick higher to 3.8% from 3.7% and services advance to 5.0% from 4.7%. At the time, ING highlighted that the increase in services inflation, which had follow-through into core prices, was “overwhelmingly down to a larger-than-usual rise in airfares” and was something the BoE “can safely ignore”. It also observed that “the Bank’s preferred measure of services inflation, excluding volatile/indexed categories, to be essentially flat in annual terms. And at 4.2%, this measure is a fair bit below overall services inflation”. This time around, Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests that “a jump in food price inflation, a fall in motor fuels last August dropping out of the annual inflation comparison and hotel prices inflated by an Oasis concert on CPI collection day should more than offset slowing airfare inflation”. As such, the consultancy looks for a 3.9% headline print, which would be 0.1ppts above the MPC forecast and for services to slow to 4.8%. Moving forward, PM now sees “inflation peaking at 4.1% in September, up from 4.0% before”. From a policy perspective, given the expected peak in inflation for the September report, which is set to be released on October 22nd, markets remain of the view that a November cut is unlikely and prices just a circa 20% chance of such an outcome. The next 25bps cut is not fully priced until March 2026.New Zealand GDP (Wed): There are currently no expectations for New Zealand’s Q2 GDP, with the priors printing at 0.8% Q/Q for Q1 and -0.7% Y/Y for Q1. Analysts at Westpac forecast a 0.4% contraction in Q2, but stress that the decline is largely attributable to residual seasonality in the national accounts – which tends to weigh on June-quarter growth by around 0.5ppts while boosting December-quarter readings by a similar margin, the desk says, “Looking beyond this distortion, we expect a mixed growth picture, with evidence that the economy has lost some momentum compared to the strong start to this year.” From the RBNZ, the statement of the August decision suggested “New Zealand’s economic recovery stalled in the second quarter of this year. Spending by households and businesses has been constrained by global economic policy uncertainty, falling employment, higher prices for some essentials, and declining house prices.”BoE Announcement (Thu): Expectations are unanimous that the BoE will hold the Bank Rate at 4% with markets assigning a 99% chance of such an outcome. The decision to stand pat on rates is expected to come via a 7-2 vote split with dovish dissent from Taylor and Dhingra. As a reminder, the prior meeting saw policymakers cut the Bank Rate by 25bps with a 5-4 vote split (vs. exp. 7-2), which followed a second round of voting. The first round had seen four votes for unchanged, four for a 25bps reduction and Taylor back a deeper 50bps reduction. Taylor opted to switch to a shallower 25bps vote to avoid an unchanged rate. Within the statement, the Bank opted to maintain guidance of a "gradual and careful" approach to rate cuts but remove language that monetary policy needs to "remain restrictive". The hawkish vote split saw a scaling back of dovish BoE bets with data prints since the meeting, adding to the dwindling expectations of further loosening. To recap, June GDP metrics came in firmer-than-expected, the labour market has continued to cool but at a reduced rate, services inflation ticked higher to an elevated rate of 5% and the August PMI composite PMI moved further into expansionary territory. Commentary from MPC members (ex-Taylor) at the TSC hearing earlier this month continued to convey caution over the persistence of underlying inflation. As such, there is little motivation for the MPC to ease policy at this meeting. Until now, the MPC has opted to cut rates on a quarterly basis, alongside MPR meetings. The next of these MPR meetings is on 6th November. However, given the hawkish vote split last month and expectations that the September CPI report (due on October 22nd) could see inflation hit 4%, markets only price a circa 16% chance of a cut with the next 25bps reduction not fully priced until April 2026. Aside from the rate decision and vote split, attention will be on the MPC’s announcement on QT. On which, Pantheon Macroeconomics expects policymakers to slow QT to GBP 70bln per annum from October (vs. prev. GBP 100bln). Pantheon adds that GBP 70bln “would double the low pace of active sales relative to the past year, so risks skew to a bigger reduction in QT. But the MPC will likely reduce the risks to yields by skewing sales to shorter durations”.Norges Bank Announcement (Thu): Norges Bank is expected to deliver a 25bps cut at September’s meeting to 4.00%, but this is likely to be a very close decision; markets currently assign a 60% chance of such a move. At the last meeting, the Bank kept rates steady at 4.25%, suggesting that restrictive monetary policy is needed “but that it will likely be appropriate to continue with a cautious normalisation of the policy rate ahead”. Back to September, there are several factors which policymakers will keep an eye on. Starting with inflation, both headline and core metrics printed in line with expectations; notably, the CPI-ATE Y/Y figure was in line with Norges Bank’s own forecast. So whilst still at an elevated (but expected) headline level, the inner components showed that rent inflation has stabilised whilst food prices declined more than expected, which has and continues to be a source of upward price pressure on inflation. However, analysts at SEB believe that the inner components are still “worrisome” for policymakers. Overall, ING describes Norwegian inflation as “sticky”. On the economy, the latest GDP metrics were stronger than expected, rising 0.60% (exp. 0.3%, Norges Bank forecast 0.3%). As for the Bank’s latest Regional Network Report, it highlighted stable growth prospects; “contacts expect output growth to remain elevated through 2025 H2”. On jobs, “slightly more contacts are facing recruitment difficulties” and annual wage growth projections were unchanged. Given the mixed/hawkish data, contrasting with the guidance from June for a cut, analysts differ on what Norges Bank will opt to do; SEB sees the Bank delivering a 25bps cut, although it now sees upside risks to its terminal rate forecast. ING also favour a cut, suggesting that recent upbeat growth expectations are “probably incorporating lower rates this quarter”, and recent NOK strength plays in favour of a cut – but also reiterates that this is a close decision. On the flip side, Nordea stresses uncertainty around the decision, but believes rates will be maintained.BoJ Announcement (Fri): The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.50%. A Reuters poll showed 96% of economists expect the BoJ to remain on hold, while money markets price around a 95% likelihood for no changes in rates and just a 5% chance of 25bps hike. As a reminder, the BoJ provided no surprises during the last meeting at the end of July, where it kept its short-term rate unchanged via a unanimous decision and reiterated it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target. It reiterated that it will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast, in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices. BoJ also stated that underlying inflation is likely to stall due to slowing growth, but gradually accelerate thereafter, and underlying consumer inflation is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027. Furthermore, the central bank acknowledged that real interest rates are at extremely low levels and that there is high uncertainty surrounding trade policy developments, while BoJ Governor Ueda continued to signal a lack of urgency to hike rates during the post-meeting presser and noted there was no large change to the central outlook that the growth pace will slow down and underlying inflation stalls. The major development in Japan since then was the recent resignation by Japanese PM Ishiba, which has raised political uncertainty in Japan, with the next PM to be determined in the LDP leadership election on October 4th, and is likely to face increased pressure from smaller parties for more fiscal support. The resignation was seen as a potential factor that could delay the timing of the BoJ resuming its policy normalisation. A recent Reuters source report noted that although political uncertainty in Japan will not derail the BoJ's normalisation plan, it could impact the timing of the next hike, while the sources added that the "BoJ does not need to hike in the midst of turbulence" and there is "no rush...as long as it gets another rate hike done possibly by early next year". Conversely, sources recently cited by Bloomberg were much more hawkish, noting the BoJ is likely to keep rates unchanged on September 19th but is said to see some chance of hiking this year, despite the political situation. The sources also stated that the BoJ sees steady progress towards the price target and views the US trade deal as removing some risks to growth, while some officials are even of the view that a hike could be appropriate as early as October.Japanese CPI (Fri): There are currently no expectations for the Japanese CPI metrics, which are due to be released around three hours before the BoJ policy decision. Headline inflation is expected by ING to ease to 2.9% Y/Y in August (prev. 3.1%), largely on base effects from last year’s elevated energy prices. However, core CPI is seen remaining above 3%, signalling persistent underlying price pressures. July CPI data showed headline easing to 3.1% while core inflation rose to 3.4%. ING suggests sticky core inflation will keep alive the prospect of an October rate hike, particularly as October is typically when companies reset prices for the second half of the fiscal year. Recent sources via Bloomberg (9th Sept.) indicate the BoJ still sees a chance of hiking this year, albeit with rates likely left unchanged on 19th September, while Reuters reports the Bank is considering a modest reduction in super-long JGB purchases in Q4.UK Retail Sales (Fri): Expectations are for headline M/M retail sales in August to rise 0.3% (prev. 0.6%) with the core rate seen remaining at 0.5%. In terms of recent retail indicators, Y/Y BRC retail sales in August rose 2.9% (prior 1.8%) with the accompanying report noting “sunny weather and an interest rate cut helped August round off a solid summer of sales”. However, the consortium notes that “despite a better summer, retailers approach the ‘golden quarter’ with caution. With the later-than-expected Budget falling just days before Black Friday, many are uneasy about how consumer confidence and spending could be impacted by tax rise speculation in the run-up to Christmas”. Elsewhere, the Barclaycard Consumer Spending report showed “overall Retail spending increased by 0.6% in August 2025 when compared to this time last year”. Barclays observed that “health & beauty retailers led retail growth in August, driven by the enduring ‘lipstick effect’ as consumers prioritised small, feel-good luxuries. Furniture stores also performed strongly, while social media trends further boosted interest in wellness, skincare, and other indulgences”.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at investinglive.com.

What's up next week? Central Bank decisions highlighted by the FOMC rate decisionRick Reider said to have climbed the ranks for role of Fed chairTesla shares continue yesterday's breakout with 7% surgeThe US dollar sags as we count down to Fed weekMicrosoft Technicals. Microsoft rebounds as shares retest key resistance at 200-hour MAECB's Nagel: More rate cuts could threaten price stability:CBO sees lower GDP in 2025 with higher inflation and unemploymentEuropean equity close: Flat start rounds out a solid weekGold rises $15 and eyes the weekly highUMich September prelim consumer sentiment 55.4 vs 58.0 expectedOil higher as the US oil for broad sanctions on India and China for buying Russian oilTrump: The Fed is always late on interest ratesCanada July building permits -0.1% vs +4.0% expectedThe USD is higher to start the US trading session.What are the technicals telling traders?investingLive European market wrap: Dollar steady, stocks muted in final run out this weekHow have interest rates expectations changed after this week's events?Morgan Stanley now expects the Fed to cut in all three meetings to wrap up the year.The USD is closing the day mostly higher, though net changes were limited. The largest moves came against the NZD (+0.30%) and the JPY (+0.26%), while all other major currencies finished within 0.11% of Thursday’s closing levels. Price action was choppy, with the greenback firming ahead of the US session before turning lower after the weaker-than-expected University of Michigan consumer sentiment data.The preliminary September sentiment index dropped to 55.4 versus 58.0 expected and 58.2 in August. Current conditions were stable at 61.2 (vs 61.3 expected, 61.7 prior), but expectations slumped to 51.8 from 55.9, well under the 54.9 forecast. Inflation expectations were mixed: the 1-year outlook held steady at 4.8%, while the 5-year measure rose to 3.9% from 3.5%. Although the survey has lost much of its past influence due to politicization, the Fed still keeps an eye on it. The credibility of the index was damaged post-COVID when a spike in inflation expectations spurred a rate hike that was later walked back.Despite the weak sentiment data, US yields pushed higher, perhaps reflecting concerns about sticky inflation expectations. On the day, the 2-year yield rose 3.3 bps to 3.561%, the 5-year climbed 5.5 bps to 3.633%, the 10-year advanced 5.5 bps to 4.066%, and the 30-year increased 3.0 bps to 4.61%.For the week, the Treasury completed auctions of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year securities. International demand was particularly strong in the 3- and 10-year sectors, while the 30-year sale drew only average interest. Yield curve dynamics reflected a flattening bias, with the front end moving higher while the long end eased: the 2-year gained 5.3 bps, the 5-year gained 5.3 bps, while the 10-year fell 0.8 bps and the 30-year declined 7.9 bps. At its lows, the 10-year yield dipped to 3.996%, the lowest since the week of April 7, 2025. US stocks today close mixed with the Dow industrial average and the S&P index moving lower while the NASDAQ index rose and closed at a new record level.Dow industrial average -273.78 points or -0.59% at 45834.22.S&P index -3.18 points or -0.05% at 6584.29.NASDAQ index +98.03 points or 0.44% at 22141.10.Russell 2000-24.46 points or -1.01% at 2397.06.For the trading week, the indices all closed higher:Dow industrial average rose 0.95%S&P index rose 1.59%.NASDAQ index rose 2.03%Russell 2000 rose 0.25%.Next week, no fewer than four central banks will announce their interest rate decision:The Federal Reserve holds its FOMC meeting on September 16–17. Markets are broadly expecting a 25 bp rate cut, with some chatter about the possibility of a larger move if data continues to weaken. Investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s updated projections, as well as Powell’s tone on labor market softness and inflation dynamics. Labor market indicators have been signaling cracks, and consumer sentiment has weakened, adding pressure on the Fed to ease policy The Bank of Canada meets on September 17. The Canadian economy has slowed (employment statistics were weak last Friday), with growth under pressure and inflation easing, which gives policymakers scope to cut rates. Markets are pricing in the likelihood of resumed easing, though perhaps at a slower pace than in the U.S. The tone of the BoC statement will be important for gauging how far and how quickly it plans to move on policy over the coming months The Bank of England announces its policy decision on September 18. Expectations are for the BoE to keep its Bank Rate unchanged, as inflation remains relatively high and policymakers appear less convinced about the need for additional easing in the near term. Markets will be closely watching the vote split and forward guidance to see if any cracks emerge among committee members about the timing of cuts.The Bank of Japan meets on September 18–19, with policymakers widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, following earlier hikes this year. Markets anticipate that the BOJ could raise rates again in Q4 2025, potentially by 25 bps, if inflation and wage growth continue to show strength. A weak yen remains a key risk, as it amplifies import costs and inflation pressures, while political uncertainty after Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation adds another layer of complexity . The BOJ is also under watch for signals on its gradual stimulus exit, including the potential unwinding of ETF holdings. Overall, the meeting is expected to be steady on rates, but investors will be focused on forward guidance and any revisions to inflation projections in the updated Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices. Together, these decisions will set the tone for global markets next week. The Fed is widely seen as leading the easing cycle, while the BoC may follow cautiously, and the BoE is expected to hold steady for now. Inflation readings, labor market data, and geopolitical developments will remain the key wildcards shaping central bank communication and investor reaction.Thank you for your support. Have a good weekend This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

US stock market futures were flat ahead of the open and that's pretty much where they finished. There was a brief rise to a fresh intraday record high late in the day but that faded and the S&P 500 closed down 3 points to 6584, ending a four-day winning streak. The Nasdaq closed modestly higher, led by a 7% squeeze higher in Tesla shares.Closing changes:S&P 500 -0.1%Nasdaq Comp +0.5% (record high close)DJIA -0.6%Russell 2000 -0.8%Toronto TSX Comp -0.4%On the week:S&P 500 +1.6%Nasdaq Comp +2.0%Russell 2000 +0.5%Toronto TSX Comp +0.8% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The NATO chief has called the incursion 'absolutely reckless' but very few are calling for any kind of retaliation.Russia's UN envoy today says it was 'physically impossible' for a Russian drone to have reached Polish territory. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It’s a big week for Canada with CPI and a Bank of Canada rate decision on deck. Here’s what’s coming up:Monday, Sept 15 • 8:30 am ET: July manufacturing shipments (consensus +1.8% m/m after +0.3% previously) • 8:30 am ET: Wholesale sales ex-petroleum (Jul, +1.3% expected) • 9:00 am ET: Existing home sales (Aug, prior +3.8%)Tuesday, Sept 16 • 8:15 am ET: August housing starts (consensus 273.2K vs 294.1K prior) • 8:30 am ET: CPI (Aug, headline seen at +0.1% m/m, +2.0% y/y) • 8:30 am ET: Core measures (median +3.1% y/y, trim +3.0% y/y)Wednesday, Sept 17 • 8:30 am ET: International securities transactions (Jul, prior +$0.7B) • 9:45 am ET: Bank of Canada rate decision (expected cut to 2.50%, down from 2.75% prior)Friday, Sept 19 • 8:30 am ET: July retail sales (expected -0.9% vs +1.5% prior) • 8:30 am ET: Retail sales ex-autos (-0.7% prior +1.9%)The focus will be squarely on Tuesday’s CPI report and Wednesday’s Bank of Canada. Inflation is expected to cool modestly on the headline but remain sticky on the core, still it's certainly at a level where the central bank is comfortable cutting rates to neutral, and the question is whether they want to get below neutral.The market is 90% priced for a cut with a 38% chance of a further cut in October.Retail sales at the end of the week will add another layer to the consumer picture. So far, the Canadian consumer has been surprisingly resilient but with layoffs picking up, we could see the belt buckles tightened. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The FOMC rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference will be the main focus next week. Alongside the Fed, three other central banks will also announce policy decisions: the Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25 bps, while the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are likely to hold steady. Markets will be watching closely for signals on the future policy path from all four. Below is a summary of the key central bank decisions and major economic releases on the calendar.MondayChina activity data: Retail sales (3.8% estimate), industrial production (5.7% estimate), and fixed asset investment for August – closely watched for signs of property sector weakness and overall growth momentum.TuesdayUK jobs report: Unemployment expected steady at 4.7%; wage growth remains a focus. Claimant count 20.3 K versus -6.2 K last monthGerman ZEW survey: Outlook on economic sentiment in Germany. Estimate 26.4 versus 34.7 last monthCanadian CPI: Headline inflation expected to ease further, shaping BoC expectations.US retail sales: Expected +0.1% m/m versus 0.3% last month, with autos weaker but core spending resilient.WednesdayFed (FOMC) meeting: Expected 25bp rate cut to 4.00–4.25%; Fed will also publish updated economic projections. Focus will be on what expectations are going forward. In June, the FOMC saw rates moving to 3.9% at the end of 2025 and 3.6% by the end of 2026. Focus will be on the comments from Fed chair Powell with any clues on what might be the neutral rate.Bank of Canada meeting: Market expects a 25bp cut to 2.5% from 2.75%; labor market and tariffs in focus.New Zealand GDP (Q2): Weak momentum expected. Estimate -0.3% versus +0.8% in the 1st quarterThursdayBank of England meeting: The BoE is expected to hold Bank Rate at 4.0%, with markets assigning a near-99% chance of no change. While inflation has eased, it remains above target, and the labor market is still tight, prompting the Bank to stress that policy must stay “restrictive.” Attention will be on whether the BoE hints at larger cuts later this year or signals a slower pace of QT as growth momentum cools.FridayBank of Japan meeting: Expected to keep rates at 0.5%, though political shifts raise uncertainty around timing of normalization. Focus will be on any sort of indications of a hike and when..UK retail sales (Aug): Expected +0.3% m/m, with core steady at 0.5%.Quad witching: Options/futures expiry may boost market volatility. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Blackrock's Rick Rieder has evidently made the long list of Fed candidates and he impressed Scott Bessent, according to a Bloomberg report.I don't think it's any surprise that Rieder said the Fed 'should' cut by 50 basis points at the upcoming meeting and maybe that's why he got the interview (or the praise). The interview was this morning and 'lasted for two hours', according to the report.That said, Rieder is certainly credible. He is a smart, thoughtful guy and of all the names floated for Fed Chair so far, I think he would instill the most confidence in the bond market. If you've ever heard him on TV, he's a great communicator and a straight shooter; certainly not a politician. Bessent said he will interview all the contenders and offer Trump a short-list of three to four to consider later this fall. Let's home Rieder is on the list. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Yesterday I wrote about the breakout in Tesla shares:At the moment, earnings simply don't matter and this chart shows a nice looking series of higher lows that could be capped by a return the 2024 highs. Given the parabolic move in Oracle shares yesterday, I would certainly be wary of being short.Sure enough, it was as simple as going with the breakout after a long period of consolidation. Shares are up 7% today in a sign that the move could run back to the 2024 highs.The tell was Oracle earlier this week as it went straight parabolic and I think it's a sign that we're in a fresh meme-driven market. There is simply no one out there that's willing to push back on the AI narrative and rate cut hopes. It's a beautiful Fed put that faces some risk of a hawkish Powell next week but even then, I'd assume that just delays the cuts until later and the dip would be a buying opportunity. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Treasury yields are 3-6 basis points higher on the day and that initially gave the US dollar a lift today but it's fading. The dollar has been under some modest pressure since the softer UMich consumer sentiment data. That's helped boost the euro to 1.1737 from 1.1712.There are similar 20-30 pip moves elsewhere and what's likely flows ahead of the weekend. Notably, the dollar has weakened even as the odds of a larger Fed rate cut have declined. The implied chance of a 50 basis point cut is down to 4.8% and that may be due to the lack of any kind of leak following CPI yesterday. I would warn that we often get a Timiraos Fed preview on the Monday morning before the decision, so keep an eye out for that.More likely is that the market digested yesterday's CPI and the quirks in the initial jobless claims numbers and saw a mediocre case for a 50 bps cut.Zooming out on EUR/USD, this looks like a bullish period of consolidation following the big move from 1.03 to 1.17. The pullbacks have been steady along the way followed by fresh climbs higher. This week underscored why as the ECB cited economic resilience and paused rate cuts. The Fed, meanwhile, appears poised to embark on a long cutting cycle, including 125 bps (priced in) over the coming year.Add all that up and there is a case to buy a break of the recent highs for a trip to 1.20, which would act like a magnet on any swing higher. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Microsoft’s shares are on the run to the upside today after a series of positive catalysts. The company extended its partnership with OpenAI, reinforcing its leadership in AI investments tied to ChatGPT and Azure. It also settled with the European Commission on long-running antitrust issues related to Teams, easing regulatory pressure by offering Office 365 without Teams and improving data portability. Finally, Microsoft and OpenAI signed an MoU to redefine their partnership as OpenAI transitions toward a for-profit model, with both sides expected to hold about 30% stakes. Together, these developments boosted investor confidence and lifted the stock.Shares are currently up $11.06 or 2.21% to $512.03Technically, Microsoft’s price has reclaimed its 100-hour moving average at $503.49 and is now testing the 200-hour moving average at $512.27. So far, today’s high has reached $512.45, just above that key resistance. A sustained break above the 200-hour moving average would signal further upside momentum, with the next target at the swing level of $518.29.That level capped rallies on July 25 and July 29, just before the stock gapped higher on its earnings release. Microsoft went on to set an all-time high at $555.23 on earnings day but has since retraced, falling 11.2% to a low of $492.37 last Friday. On the move off of the high, initial buyers did lean against the $518.29 level increasing its importance today and going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.