Will US President Trump start a war with Iran?That's the big question oil traders are struggling with. Yesterday, a report from Reuters suggested that attacks were imminent and that was combined with the UK closing its embassy and evacuating staff. It led to a jump in oil prices to the highest since October but it was a short-lived pop as yesterday afternoon, Trump seemed to de-escalate.He highlighted that executions for protestors had been stopped, along with the killing in the streets. That's hardly consolation for the protesters that he was encouraging a day earlier."Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!... HELP IS ON ITS WAY," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.So help is life in prison instead of execution?The oil market no longer seems to think that military help is coming. WTI crude oil is down $2.96 today, to $59.08, nearly erasing the three-day rally as tensions in Iran rose.Notably, though, it's not all the way back to the $56 it traded at last week. Maybe we're underestimating the President's resolve?The Venezuela operation was launched on a Friday night and tied up before Monday's market open. That seems to be a pattern with the President and it argues for buying oil on Friday. I wouldn't necessarily argue for holding it through the weekend as there is the risk of a gap lower if action doesn't materialize but buying early Friday and selling late Friday might capture the weekend nerves without making a bet on what will actually happen in Iran.Taking a larger view in the oil market the problem is oversupply and it's a tough one to solve. Yesterday's weekly EIA report showed a build of 8.6 million barrels of gasoline supplies in the US following 7.7 mb the week before. The chart shows how extraordinary those builds are.In a note today, Scotiabank argues that the global oil market is entering a period of severe imbalance that will prevent prices from recovering without intervention. They forecast that global oil supply will exceed demand by more than 2.0 million barrels per day in 2026. Specifically, they expect the surplus to be nearly 3.5 mmbbl/d in the first half of 2026, narrowing to just under 2.0 mmbbl/d in the second half.Scotia says the market is underestimating Brazilian growth this year, which they peg at 600k bpd.Contrary to consensus, Scotiabank does not believe the market will self-correct. They argue that prices will remain depressed until Saudi Arabia abandons its market share strategy and OPEC+ returns to the negotiating table to implement new cuts, which the analysts do not expect to happen until 2027.These forecasts are hardly a call for buying oil and they help to explain why positioning data is so short:2026 Average: $49.72 per barrel Q1 2026: $54.00 per barrel Q2 2026: $51.00 per barrel Q3 2026: $48.00 per barrel Q4 2026: $46.00 per barrel 2027 Average: $55.00 per barrelI like the idea of buying at $46 for the long term. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe current market heatmap reveals a robust performance in the semiconductor sector, with standout stocks like NVDA and AMD posting impressive gains of 2.02% and 3.27% respectively. As advanced technologies continue to drive demand, this sector appears poised for further growth.On the contrary, the energy sector is facing a downturn, with companies like ExxonMobil (XOM) falling by 1.27%. This decline is influenced by fluctuating oil prices and an increasing shift towards renewable energy.Market Mood and TrendsOverall market sentiment today leans towards optimism, buoyed by tech gains. The strong recovery in technology stocks, notably in software applications, underlines a growing investor appetite for innovation-driven growth. However, the healthcare sector is under pressure, with Eli Lilly (LLY) down by 0.83%, reflecting mixed investor sentiment due to policy uncertainty.Big Winners and Losers? Winners: Semiconductors lead the charge with robust performances from Micron Technology (MU) and Broadcom (AVGO), rising 3.86% and 1.71% respectively.? Losers: The energy sector is the notable laggard, with Chevron (CVX) also down by 0.82%, echoing sector-wide challenges.Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should consider increasing their exposure to the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, given their promising growth trajectory. On the flip side, caution is advised in the energy market due to volatility. Those looking to diversify might explore consumer cyclical stocks, which show resilience, with Amazon (AMZN) up 0.64%.As the markets continue to evolve, staying informed and adaptable is crucial. Visit InvestingLive.com for more insights and analyses on navigating today's financial landscape. ?? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The statement from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Sunday night was remarkable and continues to resonate. The US Department of Justice -- undoubtedly directed by the President -- opened an investigation into the Chairman of the Federal Reserve in an attempt to coerce him into exiting the institution and giving the President full control over interest rates.Perhaps it wasn't designed just to intimidate Powell but whoever might come to replace him, or whoever might stand in the way. We've already seen signs of this as Fed Governor Kugler was chased out and Fed Governor Lisa Cook is under investigation for a trivial mortgage oversight, something the President has tried to fire her over. It will ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court.This is all rightly setting off alarm bells everywhere and we've seen a spirited (and wise) defense of central bank independence from some Republican Senators who still have some integrity, along with past Fed Chairs and even right-wing media. I'm not going to go into the importance of central bank independence but it's been well proven and allowing politicians to set rates has almost always ended in inflation.So why wasn't there a bigger market reaction in stock markets?Maybe it's because Trump looks like he will fail and that this will backfire, resulting in Powell digging in his heels and staying on the Fed as a Governor after his term ends.I'd argue it's equally because Trump might succeed in stacking the Fed with yes-men. That would result in interest rates lower than they should be and ultimately, inflation. But not inflation right away, at least not runaway inflation. The real tail risk is that Trump succeeds in driving rates to 1% or 1.5%. It doesn't take a long view of history to see what ultra-low rates do for the stock market. We saw it during covid and it was an absolute bonanza as it resulted in asset-price inflation that far exceeded real world inflation. It also allows market participants to indulge in their favourite pastime: leverage. That's the kind of thing that could wreck the bond market but stock markets are a great hedge against inflation. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Fed moved to slowly to combat inflation in pandemicThere's a lot of blame to go around for pandemic inflation surgeServices inflation not yet under controlBest thing about recent inflation data shows possible waning of tariff impactExpects to see Fed rate cuts this year, but needs data to affirm outlookRates can still go down a fair amount but need firm evidence of inflation retreatThe most important thing facing Fed is need to get inflation back to 2%There is still strength in jobs and overall growth is goodData points to stability in job marketI'm not surprised by low claims data If you try to take away the independence of the central bank, you will get inflation roaring backThe Fed has settled comfortably into the sidelines as they evaluate the economy and wait for inflation to fall convincingly towards 2%. Today's initial jobless claims number prompted the comment in the headline from Goolsbee as claims were at 198K compared to 215K expected and 208K a week ago. It's the 'low hiring, low firing' economy that's persisted for awhile and is increasingly static. With GDP growth likely around 2.5% this year, there is no big incentive to let workers go.At some point, there will be that pressure and AI will allow for productivity gains but we don't appear to be crossing that threshold in a rush. So the Fed will wait and likely resist pressure from Trump to cut for at least awhile. Pricing for a January cut is under 10% and it's a 24% for a March cut.The first meeting that's really in play is April but it's down to just 39%. That means the next cut may fall to the future Fed chairman at the June meeting. The name of that chairman is something we could find out within days. The betting market has Kevin Warsh slightly ahead of Kevin Hassett but both are likely to be Trump lackeys. That will set up a showdown between the chair and the board. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Initial Jobless ClaimsInitial claims: 198,000, ↓ 9,000 from the prior week (revised to 207,000)Prior week revision: ↓ 1,000 (from 208,000 to 207,000)4-week moving average: 205,000, ↓ 6,500 on the weekTrend signal: Lowest 4-week average since January 20, 2024, highlighting continued labor-market resilienceContinuing ClaimsInsured unemployment rate: 1.2%, unchangedContinuing claims: 1.884 million, ↓ 19,000 from the prior week (revised to 1.903 million)Prior week revision: ↓ 11,000 (from 1.914 million to 1.903 million)4-week moving average: 1.889 million, ↓ 250 on the weekTrend signal: Stability with mild improvement, no sign of sustained labor-market deteriorationMarket takeaway: Jobless claims remain low and trending lower, reinforcing the view of a resilient U.S. labor market, which limits the urgency for aggressive Fed easing and keeps the USD supported on dips.There is some chatter that the claims may be impacted by seasonally adjustments.Looking at the markets, the broader S&P and Nasdaq are higher with the S&P up about 36 points and the Nasdaq up 254 points. In the US debt market, yields are higher and trading near the high:2 year yield 3.558%, +4.2 basis points5 year yield 3.755%, +4.0 basis points.10 year yield 4.161%, +2.2 basis points. 30 year yield 4.766%, +1.0 basis pointsFed's Goolsbee is talking on CNBC and says that we need to get inflation down to 2%. He says there are some things in the recent CPI and PPI data that there are some things are encouraging, but some things that are still disturbing.The USD is moving higher as well. Of interest is that the GBPUSD is trading between the 100 and 200 day MAs between 1.33645 and 1.33965. The price has moved below the 200 day MA at 1.33965 but remains above the 100 day MA at 1.33645. The low just reached 1.3373. Initial jobless claims track the weekly number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time and are one of the most timely indicators of U.S. labor-market health and overall economic momentum. Rising claims can signal increasing job losses and a slowing economy, while declining claims suggest that hiring is outpacing layoffs, pointing to underlying economic strength. Released every Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor, the report is closely watched by economists and markets alike, with particular emphasis on the four-week moving average, which helps smooth out weekly volatility and provides a clearer view of underlying labor-market trends. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was -8.8Details:Employment: +9.7 vs +12.9 last monthPrices paid: +46.9 vs +43.6 last month New orders: +14.4 vs +5.0 last monthShipments: vs +3.2 last monthUnfilled orders: vs -6.2 last monthInventories: vs +6.5 last monthAverage workweek: vs +14.7 last monthSix-months from now indicators:6 month index: vs +41.6 last monthCapex index 6-month forward: vs +30.3 last monthThe Philly Fed is a solid look at manufacturing in the region but the entire US manufacturing sector is increasingly irrelevant in terms of national employment, GDP and markets. It represents something of a broader look at overall economic sentiment, so it still has some value but it's rarely an FX market mover or anything else.Separately, the import/export price indexes were released for November:Import prices +0.4% vs -0.1% expected (prior 0.0%)Import prices y/y vs +0.3% priorExport prices +0.5% vs +0.2% expected (prior was 0.0%)There is some inflation hidden in these numbers and all of this is coming with oil prices at very low levels. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -3.90Full report hereDetails:New orders 6.6 vs 0.0 priorShipments 16.3 vs -5.7 priorEmployment -9.0 vs 7.3 priorAverage employee workweek -5.4 versus 3.5 priorPrices paid 42.8 vs 37.6 priorPrices received 14.4 vs 19.8 priorUnfilled orders -8.2 vs -14.9 priorDelivery times 0.0 vs -5.9 priorInventories -2.1 vs 4.0 priorSupply availability -4.1 vs -6.9 priorThe agency said: "Manufacturing activity increased in New York State, according to the January survey. The general business conditions index rose eleven points to 7.7, returning to positive territory after a small dip below zero in December. New orders and shipments increased, with the new orders index rising eight points to 6.6 and the shipments index climbing twenty-one points to 16.3, its highest level in over a year. Unfilled orders decreased. Inventories edged down and delivery times were unchanged. The supply availability index came in at -4.1, suggesting supply availability was slightly worse than last month."Six-month outlook:General business conditions 30.3 vs 35.7 priorNew orders 33.3 vs 38.0 priorShipments 34.9 vs 33.3 priorNumber of employees 14.9 vs 8.8 priorAverage employee workweek 17.5 vs 12.9 priorPrices paid 52.6 vs 55.4 priorPrices received 36.5 vs 46.5 priorCapital expenditures 10.3 vs 6.9 priorUnfilled orders 10.3 vs 12.9 priorThe agency said: "Firms remained fairly optimistic about the outlook. The index for future business conditions came in at 30.3, with about half of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. New orders and shipments are expected to increase. Supply availability is expected to be unchanged. Firms continue to anticipate significant price increases, though somewhat less so than in recent months. The capital expenditures index rose three points to 10.3, pointing to ongoing modest capital spending plans."WHAT IS THE NY FED MANUFACTURING INDEX?The New York Fed Manufacturing Index (officially known as the Empire State Manufacturing Survey) is a monthly economic indicator that gauges the health of the manufacturing sector in New York State.Because it is released very early in the monnth, usually around the 15th, it is considered a "bellwether" or leading indicator for the broader U.S. manufacturing industry and the overall economy. It's a low-tier indicator though, meaning it's not as market-moving as the ISM Manufacturing index.It's a diffusion index, meaning it represents the difference between the percentage of companies reporting an increase in activity and those reporting a decrease:Above 0.0: Indicates that manufacturing activity is expanding.Below 0.0: Indicates that manufacturing activity is contracting. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Japan MOF faces a tall order in getting any yen intervention to stick - MUFUS-Iran tensions have been capping US stocks all along: Trump’s comment triggered a rallyPrecious metals regain some poise after sharp drop earlier in the dayBoJ rate hike odds rise as the central bank is said to focus more on the weakening yenTrump's comments lead to sharp drop in oil prices: what's next for crude oil?German gross domestic product was 0.2% higher in 2025NASDAQ Technical Analysis (did you exit your short)?USDJPY falls back below the 2025 high following intense verbal intervention. What's next?Spain December final CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelimFrance December final CPI +0.8% vs +0.8% y/y prelimPBOC to cut rates on various structural policy tools by 25 bpsWhat are the main events for today?China new bank lending stumbles once again in 2025UK November monthly GDP +0.3% vs +0.1% m/m expectedFX option expiries for 15 January 10am New York cutECB policymaker Kazaks says attack on Fed raises new risks to economic outlookSilver pulls back from the highs, major currencies steady ahead of European tradingThe main highlights of the European session on the news front were the monthly UK GDP data and a Bloomberg report raising the possibility of an earlier than expected BoJ rate hike. The UK data beat expectations across the board but the market reaction was muted. The main reason is the fact that the BoE is mostly focused on inflation for the next rate cut decisions. We then got a Bloomberg report saying that the BoJ officials were paying more attention than before on the weakening yen and its potential impact on inflation. According to people familiar with the matter, this could have implication for future rate hikes even though the central bank is likely to hold rates steady next week.The Japanese Yen strengthened on the headlines as the odds of a rate hike in March jumped to 22%. This would be much sooner than expected and could keep the JPY supported in the short-term if speculations of an earlier hike keep increasing.In the markets, US stocks have been the most notable movers. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures have been rallying strongly since Trump's comment yesterday where he said that the killing in Iran was stopping and there were no plans for executions. It certainly looks like the upside was capped by US-Iran tensions all long. In fact, a war with Iran would trigger a massive rally in oil prices which would eventually weigh on economic activity and inflation. Without the risk of a military action in Iran, we should see new all-time highs soon.In other markets, FX has been kinda boring with most major pairs seeing slight changes on the day. US Treasury yields continue to bounce around in a range given the limited changes in interest rate expectations. Gold and silver recouped some of the losses triggered by easing US-Iran tensions although they remain negative on the day. Lastly, oil is consolidating near yesterday's lows when Trump's comment caused a massive and quick dip.In the American session, the main highlight is going to be the US Jobless Claims data. Initial Claims are expected at 215K vs 208K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1893K vs 1914K prior. Jobless Claims continue to point to a "low firing, low hiring" labour market with some minor improvement.The data is unlikely to change much in terms of expectations unless we get big deviations from the estimates. We have also the Philly Fed index and the November import/export prices on the agenda but those aren't market moving releases. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

MUFG notes that the latest rise in USD/JPY this week paints a similar picture to what we saw back in July 2024, when Tokyo last intervened in the market to arrest the yen decline. That as we also start to approach similar levels, considering the over ¥5 trillion in intervention back then helped to draw a peak in USD/JPY close to 161.80.Amid the latest probe towards 160.00 this week, it is the first time since that particular July that the currency pair is taking aim at the figure level. So in terms of levels, one can argue we're approaching a similar pain threshold to some extent.And while the intervention at the time did trigger a strong rally in the yen currency after. It was ultimately also helped by the BOJ hiking interest rates while the Fed on the other hand was only starting its easing cycle.Even so, MUFG makes special mention in pointing out that said rally ultimately failed to hold in the big picture. And USD/JPY even managed to recoup much of its declines by the end of 2024.Taking that as an example, the firm highlights a key issue for Tokyo officials at this juncture. That being any intervention could spark some market moves in the direction they wish for. But without the appropriate drivers in terms of monetary and macro factors backing that up, it will struggle to see the yen recovery be sustained.And considering how tough already it was back in 2024, MUFG notes that the Japan MOF will face an even steeper uphill task in getting any intervention to stick this time around. That even as the levels in USD/JPY currently are pushing almost similar boundaries to what we saw in July 2024.Well, they're not exactly wrong I would say. Fiscal risks are perhaps the biggest concern for the yen currency and bond market at this stage. And that is one that will be hard to shake off unless the government or BOJ backs down. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

I've been wondering these days why US stocks didn't rally on the softer than expected US core inflation and yesterday I think I got the answer. The upside has been capped by US-Iran tensions. In fact, after the initial pop following the CPI release, US stocks started to slowly edging lower and eventually the bearish momentum increased after Trump posted on his Truth Social that all the meetings with Iranian officials have been cancelled and that help for the protestors was on the way.The fears of an imminent military action increased and the risk sentiment deteriorated. On the macro side, a war with Iran would trigger a massive rally in oil prices which would eventually weigh on economic activity and inflation. That's why it was a risk for stocks. Late yesterday, Trump said that the killing in Iran was stopping and that there were no plans for executions. For some context, Trump has been threatening “strong actions” in case the Iranian regime killed protestors.Yesterday’s comment eased the fears of an imminent military action and triggered a rally in US stock markets. The concerns eased further this morning as the Iranian airspace slowly returned to regular traffic following a previous block due to potential US strikes.Looking ahead, the outlook for US equities remains bullish amid strengthening economy, easing inflation and Fed's dovish reaction function. Without the risk of a military action in Iran, we will likely see new all-time highs soon. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The market mood is keeping steadier in European morning trade with equities holding calmer while precious metals are bouncing back quite modestly on the day. Of note, silver is down just 2% now in climbing back above $91 and that is well off the earlier low of $86.42 in Asia trading. The volatile swings are continuing on the day.There's not much in terms of headlines to drive the rebound, with it looking to be dip buyers stepping back in after some profit-taking from before.The near 8% drop at the lows today points to the fact that it is really like the wild, wild west out there. It is the fact when there is a retracement/pullback, it can get quite violent. So, just be cautious when you're engaging at the highs here.But as evident from the near-term chart above, even that near 8% drop doesn't look like much when weighing up the run higher since the turn of the year.Elsewhere, gold is also steadying itself in a climb back above $4,600 to $4,617 now - down just 0.1% on the day. The low for gold earlier was $4,581 as the decline was a bit more measured as compared to the silver drop. That is something that was alluded to yesterday here in this post: When will the silver rally prove too hot to handle?For now, buyers continue to keep in near-term control despite the more volatile mix. And with all the fundamentals already laid out on the ground for all to see, the only thing left to scrutinise is price action itself and using the technicals as a guide to any material shifts in the momentum play for precious metals. That will be part of the playbook until we get to the weekend it would seem. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Bloomberg reports that the BoJ officials are paying more attention than before on the weakening yen and its potential impact on inflation. According to people familiar with the matter, this might have implication for future rate hikes even though the central bank is likely to hold rates steady next week. The odds of a rate hike in March jumped to 22% following the news. This would be much sooner than expected and could give the Japanese Yen a boost in the short-term if speculations of an earlier hike keep increasing.Yesterday, the JPY strengthened across the board following a barrage of verbal intervention from Japanese officials as the price approached the key 160.00 handle which triggered the previous interventions in 2024. On the 1 hour chart, we can see that USDJPY fell yesterday following the intensification of verbal intervention. We have now a consolidation defined by the minor counter-trendline. The buyers will likely continue to lean on it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the next major trendline around the 157.50 level. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices plunged late yesterday following a comment from Trump where he said that the killing in Iran was stopping and that there were no plans for executions. For some context, Trump has been threatening “strong actions” in case the Iranian regime killed protestors. We’ve been getting reports of mass killings and executions in the past days, which prompted Trump to cancel all the meetings with Iran's officials and pledging support to the protestors. This kept oil prices supported on escalating US-Iran tensions.Yesterday’s comment eased the geopolitical risk premium as the fears of an imminent military action subsided. The concerns eased further this morning as the Iranian airspace slowly returned to regular traffic following a previous block due to potential US strikes.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see the drop in the price from the $62.00 level. We have a strong support zone around the $58.80 level where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to target a rally into the $66.00 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the $55.00 level next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the quick drop following Trump's comment on Iran. There's not much we can add here as from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the $58.80 support to target new highs, while the sellers will need a break lower to open the door for new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

That's at least some positive news that will shelve stagflation fears for a while. But as price pressures continue to be an issue as we get into the new year, the risks will still remain as economic conditions remain more tepid.For some context, the German economy contracted in 2023 and 2024 by 0.9% and 0.5% respectively. So, this is the first positive momentum shift since 2022.Looking at the details, the growth picture is primarily attributable to increased consumer spending by private households and the government. Meanwhile, exports declined yet again as US tariffs weighed on the sector alongside other factors such as the appreciation in the euro currency and increased competition from China.Besides that, overall investment remains weak with the numbers here being softer in both equipment and construction than in the previous year.The manufacturing sector also failed to get out of its rut, facing a third straight year of decline in output. That being said, at least the decline was less pronounced than in the two preceding years. The sub-sectors that suffered the most were the automotive and mechanical engineering industries. No surprises there as US tariffs were the main issue of course.As for the construction sector, it was a tough year in general as well. Persistently high construction prices significantly hampered building construction and finishing trades in particular. Meanwhile, the services sector had a bit more of a mixed showing.The saving grace for Germany this time was consumer spending, with both private and government consumption expenditure rising significantly last year. Households mostly spent on healthcare and mobility while spending in food and accommodation showed some declines.The contrast says a lot about the growth balance since Germany is supposed to be the industrial backbone of Europe. So, just be wary of that.As for the deficit ratio, Germany clocked in a 2.4% reading in 2025. So, that at least keeps below the European Stability and Growth Pact reference value of 3% - for now. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

NASDAQ Technical Analysis for Today: Bulls Regain Control After the Washout, but Key Levels MatterThe NASDAQ has gone through a sharp and unsettling pullback yesterday, raising questions among traders and investors about whether the broader uptrend is losing steam, and maybe the new Trump tarriff on chips is going to startle the market. Even the USDJPY fell back below the 2025 high following intense verbal intervention, so what's next?Based on a combination of price structure, value behavior, and order flow intel, the picture today is more constructive than it was yesterday, though not without important conditions.The key takeaway is this: the market has likely completed a short-term washout, and the medium-term outlook has improved, but bullish continuation depends on how price behaves around a small set of critical levels.Nasdaq Futures Yesterday and Today. From Washout to Stabilization, What Changed?Earlier in the week, selling pressure intensified and the NASDAQ moved lower in a way that justified a bearish medium-term bias. That downside move did its job. Heavy volume appeared during the decline, weak hands were forced out, and price explored lower value areas.What followed was more important than the selloff itself.Instead of cascading lower, price stabilized, value stopped migrating down, and buyers began to step back in. On higher timeframes, the market started to accept prices above prior value, which is often a sign that the downside auction has run its course.This shift is why the medium-term bias has turned more bullish than bearish again, even though short-term pullbacks and pauses remain possible.The Bullish Case is In Tact Now at Nasdaq and What Needs to HoldFor traders and investors leaning bullish, the most important zone to monitor is 25,600.This level matters for several reasons:It aligns with the current point of control.It matches yesterday’s VWAP.It overlaps with prior points of control from earlier sessions.In other words, 25,600 is a line in the sand. If price pulls back and buyers defend this area, the bullish reversal thesis remains intact.Just above that, 25,638 also deserves attention. This level marks yesterday’s value area high and sits very close to today’s developing VWAP. Bulls ideally want to see price remain above this zone, or quickly reclaim it if tested.As long as price holds above the 25,600 to 25,638 area, pullbacks are more likely to be rotational and corrective, not trend-breaking.Where Nasdaq Bulls May Take ProfitsOn the upside, traders should be realistic. Even in bullish environments, markets do not move in a straight line.One area that stands out is around 25,860. This zone sits close to:The value area low from two days ago.The VWAP from roughly three sessions back.These overlapping references make it a natural place where partial profit-taking could appear, especially for short-term traders. Seeing hesitation or consolidation there would not invalidate the bullish case. It would be a normal part of a healthy advance.The Bearish Scenario for Nasdaq Today (Less Likely, Despite Yesterday): What Would Change the ViewBalanced analysis requires clarity on invalidation.If price fails to hold above 25,600, the bullish premise weakens meaningfully. In that case:The market may revisit yesterday’s low.A deeper rotation toward the 25,350 area becomes plausible.Such a move would suggest that buyers are not yet ready to build value higher, and the market would likely need more time to repair before another sustained attempt upward.How Order Flow Intel Frames the Current Bias for Nasdaq TodayFrom an order flow perspective, the message today is more constructive than it was yesterday.Heavy selling volume earlier in the week appears to have exhausted itself.Recent price advances show acceptance rather than immediate rejection.On medium timeframes, buyers have regained control, even though short-term timing has at times been stretched.This does not mean a promise of higher prices. Markets can always surprise. It does mean that, at this stage, order flow intel favors a bullish recovery scenario, provided key support zones are respected.Practical Guidance for Nasdaq Traders and InvestorsBullish bias remains valid as long as 25,600 holds.Expect pauses and pullbacks. These are normal after a sharp rebound.Use pullbacks into key levels to evaluate risk, rather than chasing strength.If 25,600 fails, reassess. The market may need to explore lower prices again.Investors and traders are welcome to revisit this page as we may have additional insights coming from our orderFlow analysis methodology later today. Till then, the long-term structure remains constructive, even after the yesterday's decline and volatility..orderFlow Intel Scores and How to Use ThemTo guide traders and investors, orderFlow Intel uses a multi-timeframe scoring framework, with scores ranging from –10 to +10. Each score reflects a different time horizon and helps readers understand not just direction, but also confidence and timing.How to interpret the scale+7 to +10: Strong bullish conditions, early to mid trend+4 to +6: Bullish bias, continuation possible but with pauses+1 to +3: Mild bullish bias, tactical and selective0: Neutral, no clear edgeNegative scores: Bearish conditions or timing exhaustionCurrent higher-timeframe scores for the NASDAQLong-term score: +3 The broader structure remains constructive. The recent selloff looks more like a washout than a breakdown, and longer-term value is stabilizing. This keeps the bigger-picture bullish case intact, even though volatility has increased.Medium-term score: +7 The medium-term outlook has improved meaningfully compared with yesterday. Buyers have regained control, value has migrated higher, and price is being accepted above prior balance areas. This reflects a bullish recovery phase rather than a fragile bounce.We intentionally do not publish a fixed short-term score in articles, because short-term conditions can change within minutes or hours during the trading day. Publishing a static short-term score could confuse readers who encounter this analysis later.How the framework works, in brieforderFlow Intel combines an advanced AI learning system with a disciplined analyst methodology. Rather than relying on a single indicator, the framework evaluates how price interacts with key reference levels while weighing buying and selling pressure, volume behavior, and acceptance versus rejection across multiple time horizons.The guiding principles are:Higher timeframes define the structural direction.Medium timeframes show who is gaining control.Shorter timeframes are used for timing and execution, and therefore change more frequently.This separation helps avoid a common mistake: confusing a bullish trend with a good entry.For readers interested in live trade ideas and short-term timing, we regularly share opinions and setups in our Telegram channel: ? https://t.me/investingLiveStocksFor example, during today’s NASDAQ move, we initiated a long position around 25,609, took a first partial profit near 25,637, moved the stop to entry to eliminate risk, and later took another profit near 25,706, while keeping additional targets open. These are opinions based on real-time analysis, not financial advice, and many are informed by orderFlow Intel insights as market conditions evolveTrader Update – NASDAQ, 16 minutes are the US market openThe washout phase of yesterday is complete. Buyers are rebuilding control at a higher level, and the broader bullish recovery thesis remains valid.Current orderFlow Intel scores (–10 to +10 scale):Long-term: +4 – Structure repaired after the washoutMedium-term: +7 – Bullish recovery confirmed, value migrating higherShort-term: Timing-dependent – Selective only, avoid chasing after extended movesKey takeaway: the trend has improved meaningfully, but execution still matters. Pullbacks and reactions around key levels will offer better risk-reward than chasing strength.Trade ideas and short-term timing updates may follow later as conditions evolve.------------------------------------------------------------Trader UpdateThursday, 15 January 2026 – 12:09 ETThe washout phase is complete, and the NASDAQ continues to show signs that buyers are rebuilding control at higher levels.Since the U.S. session open, price briefly dipped below VWAP and yesterday’s upper deviation, but that move failed to gain acceptance. Buyers stepped back in quickly, reclaiming VWAP and pushing price higher again. This type of failed intraday breakdown is typically constructive in a bullish recovery phase and suggests that selling pressure is being absorbed rather than expanded.From an orderFlow Intel perspective, the medium-term outlook remains bullish, while short-term conditions are becoming more location-dependent as price approaches prior high-volume areas. The region between 25,960 and 26,000 remains an important zone to monitor, as it includes prior session high-volume nodes and the psychologically important 26,000 level.Updated orderFlow Intel scores (–10 to +10 scale):Long-term: +4 – Structure repaired after the washoutMedium-term: +7 – Bullish recovery intact, value accepted higherShort-term: Tactical only – Expect two-way trade and pauses near resistanceKey takeaway: the broader bullish recovery thesis remains valid, but traders should continue to avoid chasing strength and instead focus on reactions around key levels and VWAP. Further updates may follow later in the session as order flow conditions evolve. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:Japanese Yen rebounds following more intense verbal interventionJapanese PM Takaichi confirms the intention of dissolving parliament and calling snap electionsUS Dollar remains supported amid potential focus on US-Iran tensions Fed members support current patient stance with rate cuts expected later in the yearFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar continues to remain supported despite the recent soft US core inflation data as the market focus looks to be elsewhere. It’s interesting to note that the greenback strengthened after renewed Trump’s threats against Iran following the CPI report and could explain the strength given the risk-off flows we witnessed afterwards. Yesterday, Trump said that the killing in Iran was stopping and that there were no plans for executions. The market reacted by selling the dollar, which might have been a confirmation that the focus has been indeed on Iran all this time. Unfortunately, we got mixed reports after Trump’s comment and eventually most of the moves were faded as the market erred on the cautious side.In terms of monetary policy, traders continue to expect 54 bps of easing by year-end. Fed members continue to support the current patient and data-dependent stance. The outlook for the USD remains neutral to bearish for nowJPY:On the JPY side, yesterday we got a barrage of verbal intervention from Japanese officials after the price broke above the 2025 high. That helped to pause the selloff in the yen as we got a pullback which eventually extended following the confirmation from PM Takaichi of an imminent dissolution of the parliament to call snap elections in February. Unfortunately, this might not stop the depreciation in the Japanese Yen yet because the fundamentals remain unfavourable for the currency amid expansionary fiscal policy and the BoJ's slow monetary policy normalisation keeping real rates in the negative territory. The central bank is still placing a great deal on wage growth, so wage data and spring wage negotiations remain key. The market is pricing around 40 bps of tightening by year end. The outlook for the JPY remains bearish.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY probed above the 2025 high around 158.87 but eventually fell back below the level following a barrage of verbal intervention from Japanese officials. We can expect the sellers to step in around these levels with a defined risk above the high to position for a drop into the 154.50 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher again to extend the rally into the 160.00 handle next.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to keep targeting new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 154.50 support next.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price broke below the minor upward trendline that was defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. This might be a signal of a bigger pullback into the next major trendline. There’s a counter-trendline defining the current consolidation. The buyers will likely continue to lean on it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

New executive hires signal bold growth ambitionsOneRoyal is pleased to announce the appointment of Marilena Iakovou as Chief Marketing Officer (CMO), effective immediately.Strategic Appointment to Drive Growth and Brand LeadershipWith over two decades of marketing, communications and fintech leadership experience, Marilena joins OneRoyal at a pivotal moment, as the company accelerates its international expansion, brand-building efforts and customer‑centric innovation across multiple markets.Marilena brings a deep track record in the financial services and online‑brokerage sectors. Highlights of her career include:Serving as Group CMO for Tickmill prior to 2020, where she helped shape global marketing strategy for a leading FX & CFD broker.Leading marketing for M4Markets from 2020 through 2023, where she oversaw brand positioning and international regulatory expansion, including the firm’s acquisition of a CySEC licence in October 2022.Most recently serving as CMO at Doo Prime (part of Doo Group) beginning in 2023.Her varied experience spans PR, brand strategy, digital marketing and global expansion in the highly competitive fintech and brokerage space.Broader Executive AppointmentsJoining Marilena at OneRoyal is Mariliza Karrera, who brings extensive marketing and brand management expertise from her roles at M4Markets and Doo Group. Mariliza worked closely with Marilena as part of a high-performing leadership duo, and her addition further strengthens OneRoyal’s senior marketing and strategy bench.These appointments are part of a broader strategic talent acquisition effort by OneRoyal, with several key executives from leading fintech and brokerage firms coming on board to drive performance, innovation, and market share in regulated jurisdictions.What This Means for OneRoyalAt OneRoyal, Marilena will oversee the full spectrum of marketing functions: brand development, global go‑to‑market strategy, digital acquisition, partnerships, and customer experience. Her appointment, alongside Mariliza and other incoming executives, underscores OneRoyal’s ambition to raise its profile, accelerate growth in key jurisdictions, and deliver an enhanced user journey.“We are thrilled to welcome Marilena to our leadership team,” said Rayan Al-Annan, CEO of OneRoyal. “Her proven ability to scale brands in regulated financial services, combined with her international mindset and digital-first approach, makes her the ideal person to lead our next phase of growth. With Mariliza and other exceptional professionals joining our ranks, we are entering a bold new chapter.”“OneRoyal’s vision to build a truly global fintech brand aligns strongly with my own values,” added Marilena. “I look forward to working with the team to further elevate the brand, deepen our relationships with clients, and expand into new markets with impact.”These appointments mark a significant milestone for OneRoyal as it continues to invest in leadership, brand and global growth.About OneRoyalOneRoyal is a global fintech and brokerage services firm that empowers retail and institutional clients with access to trading, investment and market‑intelligence platforms. Built on the principles of trust, transparency and innovation, OneRoyal serves clients across multiple jurisdictions worldwide while innovating in product, process and customer experience.https://oneroyal.news/en/company-announcements/oneroyal-appoints-marilena-iakovou-as-chief-marketing-officer/ This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Prior +3.0%HICP +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y prelimPrior +3.2%There are no changes to the preliminary estimates for Spain's headline inflation numbers in December. It reaffirms that price pressures rebounded back during the latter half of the year, with core prices also holding above the 2% threshold. Of note, core annual inflation was 2.6% in December and that is unchanged from the November reading.It keeps above the 2% line that the ECB hopes for inflation to fall back towards and Spain will join Germany in that regard in terms of creating some headache for policymakers in tying things together with the rest of the region. As such, the ECB will have to keep on the sidelines for now as stagflation risks are also a consideration when weighing the economic outlook for this year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.9%HICP +0.7% vs +0.7% y/y prelimPrior +0.8%There are no changes to the initial estimates but while headline annual inflation showed a decline, core annual inflation actually reflected a marginal increase in December. The latter was seen at 1.1% in the final month of 2025, up from 1.0% in November the month before.At the very least though, services inflation eased a little to 2.1% in ending the year. And that is down from 2.2% in November. However, food price inflation picked up in a rise to 1.7% in December - up from 1.4% previously.The readings here aren't anything too concerning for the ECB as they are keeping well below the 2% mark, especially on core prices. So, France is one spot that policymakers can turn their attention away from - at least in terms of economic data. But as we know, France's political climate offers up another set of risks for the central bank but we'll not dive into that discourse here.On the inflation front, the main worries right now are Germany and Spain. In particular, the former is the major concern as stagflation risks will come into the picture as we look to the year ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.