We seriously have to tackle the debt problemWe can do itThere is no reason for France to become Europe's laggardWe must both reign in spending and raise taxesHe's just speaking about France here, so there's nothing in terms of monetary policy view (although he's still a dove) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Uncertainty obviously remains highBut predictions of the death of the US dollar and Australian hedging model appear somewhat prematurePension funds will have to expand use of FX hedging over time to avoid hitting concentration limitsThat especially as funds will have to invest more overseas given the lack of domestic assetsThe headline remark is mainly to shore up some confidence in the currency. His speech mostly covers on pension/super funds, so there's nothing notable on monetary policy. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In case you missed the news overnight: Trump's Fed Board pick Miran has enough Senate votes to winMorgan Stanley argues that while this puts Miran among the voting members, he is set to be the only dissenter in calling for a 50 bps rate cut tomorrow. The firm anticipates a 25 bps rate cut to be the expected outcome with the dot plots set to show two rate cuts for 2025 and two in 2026.In justifying their call, Morgan Stanley points to historical precedence that "when Fed policy has been modestly restrictive, the central bank has opted for gradual easing". Adding that there is not yet enough evidence of a labour market collapse to call for a panic move this week.On Fed chair Powell's speech, the firm expects a similar tone to Jackson Hole with Powell emphasising on downside risks to the labour market but reaffirming a more data-dependent approach.Despite their more "cautious" call here, Morgan Stanley is expecting the Fed to cut rates consecutively through to January next year - starting with the one today. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The main item on the economic calendar in Europe today will be the UK labour market report. We will be getting payrolls for August alongside the jobless rate and wages data for July. At the balance, UK labour market conditions have been slowing down but at a more gradual pace. Wages are also seen easing but overall, the BOE still has to strike a balance between all of that and more stubborn inflation pressures in the meantime.When looking into the data later, the usual caveat applies in that the ONS is still striving to improve on data accuracy. That has been the case for over a year now and things don't seem to be that much better. The revamp of the labour force survey (LFS) is still ongoing as seen here. But for now, this is still the best gauge that markets and policymakers can work with - even if the BOE has been open in criticising these measures for a while now.The estimate is for the ILO unemployment rate to come in steady at 4.7% in July with average weekly earnings seen at +4.7% 3m/y (previously +4.6%). On the latter, the ex bonus reading is expected to ease a little to +4.8% 3m/y (previously +5.0%).The release is scheduled for 0600 GMT. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.They are all for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 to 1.1800 levels. The large zone of expiries there could very well play a role in keeping price action more anchored just under the 1.1800 mark, as we await the US retail sales data later in the day. With markets also already well expecting a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed tomorrow, there might not be too much of a push factor to get above 1.1800 before confirming any dovish communique by the central bank. So, the expiries will help to feed that narrative for now.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

As markets are gearing towards the FOMC meeting decision tomorrow, the dollar is not finding much comfort as it continues to get backed into a corner. And as we look towards European trading today, we are starting to see the dollar be put on the ropes as it continues to dribble lower in the run up to the main event this week.Traders are still betting on a more dovish Fed and with Trump's takeover of the central bank continuing to take shape, it only solidifies that conviction.As we look to European trading later, the dollar remains in a weak spot with some key charts to be mindful of. EUR/USD is one of that as it stays on approach to 1.1800, up another 0.2% today to 1.1783 currently.The pair has found it tough to get on with a firm break above the 1.1800 mark since the end of June. However, buyers have not relented all too much despite some headwinds developing for the euro in recent months. In particular, the single currency has managed to navigate through the political concerns in France rather well - at least for now.But with a potential for a technical break as seen above, this will be one to watch in the aftermath of the Fed this week. A break above 1.1800 will free up room towards 1.2000 next before potentially revisiting the 2020 and 2021 highs just above 1.2200.Besides that, we also have GBP/USD now sneakily climbing to its highest since early July as it nudges above the late July and August highs around 1.3585-95. The pair is up another 0.2% to 1.3620 currently with eyes on the June highs closer to 1.3770.And in similar vein to a breakout in the euro, the franc is also keeping poised against the dollar ahead of the key risk event tomorrow.USD/CHF has been towing the line near 0.7900 for a while now and a drowning dollar could yet finally seal the deal for a break under that, with sellers having tried since early July. So, this will be another one to watch in the days ahead.And lastly, do keep an eye out for AUD/USD as the pair is trying to hold the recent upside break in chase of a stronger leg higher.The pair is now trading up to 0.6670 levels, its highest since November last year. And more importantly, it is running up against a test of its 200-week moving average of 0.6675 currently. A firm break above that will see price action return above both its key weekly moving averages for the first time since 2022. That will be a notable shift in momentum, if we do get to that in trading this week.Besides the above, we're seeing some consolidation phases for USD/JPY and USD/CAD over the past few weeks. The Fed has the potential to get traders to shake that off, so that might offer something to work with in the second half of September trading perhaps.As a reminder, traders have fully priced in a 25 bps rate cut for tomorrow with ~67 bps worth of rate cuts priced for year-end. Will the Fed surprise with a more hawkish communique and bail the dollar out of this sticky situation? Or will we see the greenback fall further to fresh lows this year in the aftermath? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Currency markets have delivered two different stories this year. On the one hand, safe-haven favorites still dominate the 2025 leaderboard. On the other, September has opened with a rotation into higher-yielding commodity currencies.Year-to-Date (YTD): Swiss Franc and Euro ShineMeasured against the U.S. dollar, the Swiss franc (CHF) is up a striking +14.34% YTD, making it the best-performing major. Its strength underlines the market’s continued appetite for safe-haven assets during bouts of global uncertainty.Not far behind, the euro (EUR) has climbed +13.69%, supported by firmer growth expectations and reduced political risk in the bloc. The British pound (GBP) is holding steady with +8.77%, showing resilience despite rate debates and slower U.K. growth momentum.Further down, the Australian dollar (AUD) at +7.67% and Japanese yen (JPY) at +6.87% highlight that risk currencies and defensive currencies have both played a role this year. The Canadian dollar (CAD) lags the field at +4.42%, reflecting weaker oil trends and slower domestic growth.Month-to-Date (MTD): Aussie and Kiwi Step ForwardZooming in on September, the tone shifts. The Australian dollar (AUD) leads with +1.96% MTD, followed by the New Zealand dollar (NZD) +1.17%. This reflects renewed risk appetite, helped by rising commodity demand and relative optimism on Asia-Pacific growth.The Swiss franc (CHF), strong all year, is still positive at +0.80%, though far from its YTD dominance. The euro (EUR) and pound (GBP) are modest gainers, both up less than 1%.At the bottom, the Japanese yen (JPY -0.11%) and Canadian dollar (CAD -0.26%) have slipped, highlighting investor hesitation toward lower-yielding or commodity-tied plays in this month’s early trading.What It Means to Currency Investors and TradersYTD theme: Investors leaned on safe-havens (CHF, EUR, JPY) amid global uncertainty, while commodity currencies played catch-up.MTD twist: In September, the spotlight is on Aussie and Kiwi, suggesting risk appetite is staging a short-term comeback.USD context: The U.S. dollar has been the benchmark underperformer on both horizons, emphasizing how shifts in global monetary policy and capital flows continue to erode its edge.So, it seems that safe-havens are still the story of 2025 so far, but early September shows traders are rotating toward commodity currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi. Whether this is the start of a trend or just a short-lived bounce will depend on global risk appetite, commodity demand, and central bank cues.This is not financial advice. For more currency insights and real-time updates, visit investingLive.com, formerly ForexLive.com This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

China says it'll introduce another new policy to boost consumptionJapan’s Hayashi said Tokyo pleased with implementation of tariff agreement with the USSwatch is trolling Trump with a "WTF Tariffs" watch designCiti's bull case for Ether (ETH) is to as high as US$6300 by 2025 endPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1027 (vs. estimate at 7.1159)ICYMI:US won’t impose China oil tariffs unless Europe acts, urges tougher Russian measuresTrump's Fed Board pick Miran has enough Senate votes to winLisa Cook WILL attend the September 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetingRBA's Hunter says close to getting inflation to targetBofA strategist: China stock rally may steady after 12% surge, options point to grindTD Cowen: SEC may shift to semi-annual earnings reports, sees 60% chance of changeRBC sees S&P 500 at 7,100 in 2026, raises 2025 target but warns of volatilityNew Zealand data: August Food Price Index +0.3% m/m (prior +0.7%)Trump is on board with the call to ditch quarterly reporting for US listed companiesFOMC preview: Dollar may briefly rise after Fed cut, but jobs weakness keeps downside riskFOMC preview: Powell to push back on market rate-cut hopes, disappointment for dovesDeutsche Bank says ECB at terminal rate, expects next move to be hike in late 2026BoE seen holding rates in September, economists split on timing of next interest rate cutsBullard open to Fed chair if independence, dollar stability, low inflation safeguardedinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap: The melt up continuesNASDAQ in S&P index closed at record levels. NASDAQ leads the way with a gain of 0.93% It was a quiet session for financial markets here with traders and investors now eyeing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting decision and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s press conference to come on Wednesday, US time. It looks like it’ll be a long wait for us!Speaking of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) a US court rejected Trump’s case against Federal Reserve Governor Cook, which will see her attend the FOMC meeting. One caveat, Trump may well appeal to the Supreme Court to get his way. We’ll see how that goes. Trump’s pick as a new Fed Governor, Stephen Miran, was confirmed by the US Senate, so Miran will be at the meeting.Otherwise news and data flow was light. While most major FX traded in limited ranges JPY was a bit more of a gainer. USD/JPY has dropped around 30 or so points from its early highs above 147.50. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Tokyo is pleased with the consistent implementation of its tariff agreement with the United States. His comment seemed innocuous enough but it coincided with the yen moving a little stronger. The Bank of Japan provided USD against pooled collateral around the same time. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) +0.3%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) flat%Shanghai Composite -0.2%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) +0.24% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I'm not sure what "15 minute convenience living circles" will be, but if they improve domestic consumption that'll be a positive. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Tokyo is pleased with the consistent implementation of its tariff agreement with the United States, underscoring the deal as a sign of stable economic cooperation between the two countries. Hayashi noted that both governments have maintained their commitments under the pact so far, which is designed to smooth trade flows and reduce friction in sensitive sectors.The remarks come at a time when global trade tensions remain high, particularly over tariffs linked to strategic industries. Hayashi’s comments signal Japan’s intent to highlight predictability and reliability in its economic ties with Washington, even as both sides continue to navigate broader issues ranging from agricultural trade to supply-chain security. The government views the tariff deal as an important foundation for maintaining momentum in the bilateral relationship.USD/JPY has dribbled a little lower, circa 147.38 as I post This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Swiss wacth maker Swatch with its commentary on Turmp's 39% tariffs on Switzerland:WHAT IF...TARIFFS? features a square Bioceramic case and edge-to-edge biosourced glass that allows a side view of the watch’s dial. The blue square dial, complemented by an integrated biosourced strap, is adorned with glow-in-the-dark hands. The inversion of Arabic numerals 3 and 9 on the dial subtly references the number 39. Paired with the percentage symbol found on the battery cover, this inversion hints at the US tariffs imposed on Switzerland and the deeper narrative woven into the watch’s design. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Citigroup has launched new forecasts for ether, setting a year-end base case of $4,300—slightly below current levels around $4,515. The bank’s range is wide, with a bull case at $6,400 and a bear case at $2,200, highlighting deep uncertainty around drivers of value.Analysts pointed to network activity as the key determinant for ETH’s valuation but cautioned that much of the recent growth has been on layer-2 networks, where the value passed through to Ethereum’s base layer is uncertain. Citi assumes just 30% of layer-2 activity contributes to ETH’s price, implying current levels are running ahead of its activity-based model. The bank sees inflows, tokenization momentum, and stablecoin demand helping to bridge that gap.ETF flows have been smaller than bitcoin’s but pack more punch on a per-dollar basis, though Citi expects them to stay limited due to ether’s smaller market cap and lower visibility with new investors. Macro conditions are not expected to offer major support either, with U.S. equities already close to the bank’s S&P 500 target of 6,600. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Bank of England is widely expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 4% on September 18, according to a Reuters poll. Most economists still forecast a quarter-point cut in Q4 and another early next year, though a growing minority believe the BoE may refrain from easing further in 2025. Inflation, which peaked above 11% nearly three years ago and briefly returned to target last year, has since risen again and is projected to reach 4% in September, with a return to 2% not expected until mid-2027.All 67 economists surveyed agreed on a September hold, 42 anticipating a Q4 cut, three seeing a 50 bp move, and 22 (about one-third) predicting no cuts for the rest of the year. Analysts stressed upcoming inflation and labour data due September 16–17 will be crucial for shaping November’s decision. Wage growth remains elevated at 5%, while inflation is seen averaging 3.8% this quarter and 3.6% in Q4.Some economists argue inflation’s persistence makes further cuts too risky, warning of drifting expectations. Others believe easing in November is still likely if data softens. The UK economy is expected to grow modestly at 0.2–0.4% q/q through 2026, with annual growth averaging just above 1%. Meanwhile, the BoE continues shrinking its balance sheet, with economists forecasting a further £50–100bn reduction in bond holdings over the next year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

James Bullard, former St. Louis Fed president and now dean at Purdue University, revealed he recently met Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to discuss becoming the next Federal Reserve chair. He said he is “very interested” in the role if conditions ensure success—namely protecting the dollar’s reserve currency status, keeping inflation stable, and safeguarding the Fed’s independence.The Trump administration is interviewing candidates to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, though Powell can remain as governor until 2028. Trump and Bessent have been strong critics of Powell, pressing for aggressive rate cuts. The Fed is expected to lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points this week, citing softer job growth alongside inflation concerns.Bullard, known for advocating flexible policy during his Fed tenure, expects 75 bps of easing by year-end and sees tariffs as a short-lived inflation driver. He noted weakening labour market conditions, partly linked to immigration changes reducing the number of jobs needed to maintain stable unemployment. He stressed the importance of Fed independence, commenting also that Governor Lisa Cook deserves due process amid fraud allegations.Info via a Reuters report. -Markets are already pricing in easier policy, with the Fed expected to cut 25 bps this week and traders eyeing 75 bps of easing by year-end. The dollar stayed under pressure, Treasury yields edged lower, and equities held firm on the prospect of a more dovish Fed leadership. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

September US Empire Fed -8.7 vs +5.0 expectedCanada manufacturing sales for July 2.5% versus 1.8% estimateCanada's Carney threatened to block Teck Resources merger if HQ not in CanadaThe US is hiring staff to fix CPI reportingCameco shares hit a record as US looks to boost national uranium stockpileGreer says US open to considering further action on tariff pause if talks are positiveBessent announces the US has reached a framework with China on TikTokBessent says US won't impose tariffs on China for buying Russian oil unless Europe doesTrump: US-China meeting has gone very wellMarkets:Gold up $39 to record $3681US 10-year yields down 2.1 bps to 4.04%WTI crude oil up 67-cents to $63.36S&P 500 up 0.5%Nasdaq rises for ninth dayCAD leads, USD lagsIt was a Monday melt-up in equity markets that started with modest gains that slowly extended. The positive momentum extended after a soft Empire Fed and a spike in Tesla shares after Elon Musk bought $1 billion shares in the open market on Friday, according to a filing. Shares of Google also hit a record on increasing interest in Gemini after the latest (and impressive) Nano Banana image model.The market is anticipating a Fed rate cut and a dovish message this week. That's kept the wind in the sales of risk assets and gold while weighing on the US dollar. It's a momentum trade that risks a 'sell the fact' reaction on Wednesday afternoon. The market remains fully priced for 25 bps but the odds of a surprise 50 bps have dwindled to negligible levels, in large part due to the lack of leaks.The Canadian dollar rose to a 10-day high after stronger manufacturing data pushed back on the NAFTA breakup theme. I spoke about the loonie with Reuters as it finished near the best levels of the day.Gold was also a tailwind for the Canadian dollar and all commodity exporters. It notched a record high for the first time in a week. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

As the market awaits the FOMC decision on Wednesday, the US stocks are cheering on the prospects for a cut, and visions of other cuts between now and year-end. The gains today were led by the NASDAQ index which closed at another record. The S&P index was also higher and it too closed at a record.Tesla shares closed higher by 3.62%Alphabet cracked 3 trillion market capitalization, rising 4.53% in the process. It now joins Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia with a market capitalization of over $3 trillionNvidia shares closed flat despite China saying they did not comply with anti-monopoly lawA snapshot of the closing levels shows:Dow industrial average rose 49.23 points or 0.11% at 45883.45.S&P index rose 30.99 points or 0.47% at 6615.28NASDAQ index rose 207.65 points or 0.94% at 22348.75The small-cap Russell 2000 advance by 8.069 points or 0.34% at 2405.13.Looking at the S&P components, telecommunication services led the advances with a gain of 2.34%. Consumer Staples and healthcare were the lacquers with declines of over 1%. Overall, 5 components rose while 6 fell.Telecommunication Services +2.34%Consumer Discretionary +1.09%Information Technology +0.82%Industrials +0.45%Utilities +0.15%Energy -0.30%Financials -0.22%Materials -0.82%Real Estate -0.32%Health Care -1.01%Consumer Staples -1.16% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

It's a sparse economic calendar for the session ahead. None of this is likely to move around markets much at all upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Globe and Mail reports that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told Anglo American that he would not approve its takeover of Teck Resources unless the company's combined headquarters were moved to Canada.The company evidently agreed to the condition as Anglo American announced it would relocate to its head office to Vancouver if the all-stock bid was successful. However the company would remain domiciled in the UK.Key for Teck shareholders on this report is that it will make it tough, if not impossible, for other large mining companies to buy the Canadian copper giant.With Mr. Carney insisting that any potential suitor for Teck move its headquarters to Canada, the chances of other bidders surfacing appears to be low. Other previously speculated suitors for Teck, including BHP Group Inc., Glencore PLC, Vale SA, and Freeport-McMoRan Inc., all which have headquarters outside of Canada.Analysts at Scotia think the takeover is doomed anyway, as the premium for Teck shareholders is too low.Based on our ongoing discussions with investors, we believe that the proposed transaction under the current terms appears unlikely to succeed, as securing the minimum required Teck class B shareholder approval of 66 2/3 is likely to prove challenging. With a no premium bid, this investor discontent primarily stems from the unfavorable timing of this transaction from a Teck perspective and the resulting materially lower share of economics of the merged company at 37.6%/62.4%. Canada's Liberal government said in 2024 it would only allow for the takeover of critical miners companies 'in the most exceptional of circumstances'. Teck shares haven't reacted negatively to the latest report but the daily chart highlights how opportunistic the takeover is.The problem for Teck investors is that its flagship QB2 project in Chile has run into recurring problems and could be a lemon. The company plans a wide-ranging update on it in October, and the fear is that it could be permanently impaired.For the copper market generally, the struggles at QB2 highlight the difficulty in finding and developing large copper deposits. That adds to the bullish long-term case for copper. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD traded lower in the Asian session, but sellers could not sustain momentum in early European trading. After a brief dip below the 100-hour moving average, buyers stepped in, reversing the move and driving the pair back above a swing area between 1.1730 and 1.17419.The rebound gathered further strength after the release of weaker-than-expected US Empire manufacturing data, which pressured US yields lower. The 10-year yield is now down -2.3 basis points at 4.0375%, after having traded as high as 4.087% earlier in the day.On the topside, the high for the day reached 1.1772, just shy of last week’s swing high at 1.1779. That level is now a key near-term hurdle. A break above would open the door for additional momentum toward the July 7 and July 24 highs at 1.1788, followed by the July 1 high at 1.1829. A move beyond that would mark the highest level for EURUSD since September 2021.For now, the 1.1730–1.1741 swing area remains a critical support zone, while 1.1779 stands as the barrier to unlock the next leg higher.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Bloomberg is out with an interesting article, highlighting that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics -- the agency responsible for preparing the CPI report - is hiring 25 price collectors.These people will go door-to-door to businesses and report on prices in various locations in the United States. There is a federal hiring freeze but the agency has been forced to perform a guessing game on pricing data because it's understaffed.The jobs close in just a few days and that should help data quality collection in the months ahead.Then again, with starting pay at just $21.54 to $25.39 an hour, a hedge fund could do the funniest thing. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.