The Chinese central bank announced that it is to release a batch of monetary and financial measures, which will include interest rate cuts on structural policy tools. Among which, there will be a cut to one-year relending facilities to 1.25% from 1.50% previously.For some context, the move here is in response to this: China new bank lending stumbles once again in 2025A cut to the relending rate isn't so much so going to help bolster domestic demand, so that's still going to be an issue. And in my view, it is arguably Beijing's main problem still as they are unable to find targeted measures to deal with that.However, what the central bank is doing here is to provide banks with cheap liquidity by lowering their cost of funds. In turn, that hopefully will enable banks to incentivise lending especially to smaller and medium enterprises.In other words, the move here is a targeted supply side solution to the problem. But as mentioned above, it still doesn't address the demand side of the equation.The property market crash, weak credit appetite, and financially struggling smaller firms are all still an issue that Beijing has to find solutions to fix in order to get things back on track.Update: The PBOC confirms the lower rates will be applicable starting from 19 January. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, the main highlight was the monthly UK GDP report. The data beat expectations across the board but didn't change anything for the BoE as the central bank's focus remains mostly on inflation.Looking ahead, we get a few low tier releases like the final French and Spanish CPI data and Eurozone Industrial Production. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the main highlight is going to be the US Jobless Claims data. Initial Claims are expected at 215K vs 208K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1893K vs 1914K prior. Jobless Claims continue to point to a "low firing, low hiring" labour market with some minor improvement.The data is unlikely to change much in terms of expectations unless we get big deviations from the estimates. We have also the Philly Fed index and the November import/export prices on the agenda but those aren't market moving releases.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS09:00 GMT/04:00 ET - ECB's de Guindos (neutral - voter)13:35 GMT/08:35 ET - Fed's Bostic (hawkish - non voter)14:15 GMT/09:15 ET - Fed's Barr (neutral - voter)17:40 GMT/12:40 ET - Fed's Barkin (neutral - non voter)18:30 GMT/13:30 ET - Fed's Schmid (hawkish - non voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

That's a bummer and it underscores that credit appetite remains lacking in China as lawmakers and policymakers struggle to bolster domestic demand conditions for the most part. After posting its first annual decline in new lending in 13 years in 2024, China is now seeing back-to-back drop in new bank lending after another fall in 2025.In 2024, new yuan loans amounted to a total ¥18.09 trillion. Meanwhile, that figure drops to ¥16.27 trillion in 2025. Ouch.For some context, the drop above comes after new yuan loans hit a record high of approximately ¥22.8 trillion in 2023 - which marked an increase from the ¥21.31 trillion back in 2022.There are a myriad of factors driving the trend above with the property market slump of course being the main culprit, impacting consumer confidence and spending. Meanwhile, overcapacity concerns are also an issue now and not to mention the lack of effective stimulus from Beijing in general i.e. not being targeted enough. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.1%GDP +1.4% vs +1.1% y/y expectedPrior +1.1%The more detailed breakdown as per the following:Services +0.3% vs +0.1% m/m expectedPrior -0.3%Industrial output +1.1% vs +0.1% m/m expectedPrior +1.1%; revised to +1.3%Manufacturing output +2.1% vs +0.5% m/m expectedPrior +0.5%; revised to +0.4%Construction output -1.3% vs 0.0% m/m expectedPrior -0.6%; revised to -1.2%More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for GBP/USD at the 1.3450 level. It isn't one that might factor into play but if we do see an upside extension to the daily range in the session ahead, the expiries could pair with key near-term levels to limit any push higher. The 100-hour moving average sits at 1.3440 currently with the 200-hour moving average seen at 1.3461. The latter helped to hold gains in overnight trading before a light dip into trading today. But in terms of impact, that seems to be the extent of it for the expiries here.Looking to tomorrow though, there will be more interesting fish to fry. There are large expiries for EUR/USD closer to the 1.1700 mark, so keep a watchful eye on that just in case.However, the more interesting one might be the huge one for USD/JPY at the 160.00 level. Now, Tokyo officials have come out with some verbal intervention and that is keeping the upside surge in check since the tail end of Asia trading yesterday. As intervention risks rise, that's holding off bullish speculators from pushing for another run up in the pair.So, the expiries at 160.00 might not factor into play but just be mindful of them if we do start to probe for another move above 159.00 when we approach Asia trading tomorrow. The expiries could provide a draw in pulling price over the line if we do see price action keep close enough in the day ahead.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

He chimes in with some views on the US administration's continued attack on the Federal Reserve in saying that:ECB should stand alert as US administration attack on the Fed raises new risks to the economic outlookThe attack on the Fed is something out of "emerging market politics"It adds to a list of risks that is clouding the ECB outlookThat list includes "AI-hype driven valuation" and China's aggressive trade policy"Risks to inflation and growth are on both sides and there's no room for complacency"Building on that, Kazaks argues that if the Fed's independence were to be threatened and erodes, it would hurt the lower net worth US consumers even more as the backlash will hit via higher inflation. In turn, that will need higher interest rates to deal with the situation.As for the ECB itself, he makes note that current interest rates are at an "appropriate level" and that inflation has been "delivering good news". On the latter, he says that core prices are continuing to inch closer towards the central bank's target of 2%.We already got a glimpse to the risk to Fed independence to start the year and it will be a topic that will come about again when Powell's successor is named and how the policy path will evolve after his departure. So, expect this to be a key risk factor to undermine the dollar and potentially risk sentiment in the medium-term.On the ECB outlook domestically, there's really nothing new. Policymakers continue to sit on their hands in waiting for more economic signals to work with but they aren't seeing any material change that will trigger a need to take action. As such, the ECB looks poised to stick with keeping monetary policy on hold at least for the foreseeable future. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

When moves tend to go parabolic, the profit-taking naturally can be swift and sharp. And that's what we're seeing with silver after hitting highs of over $93 overnight before a quick plunge in Asia. There is some light buying seen closer to $86.50 for now but key near-term support will only come closer to $85, with the 100-hour moving average also seen at $85.12 currently.The precious metal is down nearly 6% currently to $87.73 on the day with price movements still extremely volatile. That being said, it hardly looks like much of a dent even when looking at the near-term chart:Amid the drop in silver, gold is also seeing some selling as it cools back under the $4,600 mark. The move here is much more measured and composed though with the precious metal down 0.8% to $4,583 currently.And also in the commodities space, oil is in the spotlight amid geopolitical headlines involving Iran. After hitting its 200-day moving average yesterday, WTI crude oil is facing a pushback with Trump also toning things down as price falls another 2% today to $59.78 currently. The high yesterday touched $61.50.Looking at other markets, equities remain more tentative after tech shares sold off yesterday while major currencies are not really showing all too much appetite for now. The dollar remains steadier at the balance, with light movements yesterday and that is carrying over to today as well.USD/JPY remains the key focus in the major currencies space after Tokyo officials stepped in with some verbal intervention yesterday. And in case you missed it, this oddly specific remark (9 January drop in the currency being "not in line with fundamentals") by Japan finance minister Katayama is what stands out in my view.The pair is little changed at 158.50 currently, backing off after hitting a high of 159.45 yesterday. But for the time being, a probe towards 160.00 remains a possibility although intervention risks have definitely risen. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

BOJ seen holding rates through March, lifting them to 1% or higher by September, maybeJulyBOJ Ueda reiterates sustained wage–price cycle, signals further rate hikes if f'casts holdChina hails Carney visit as symbolic as Canada seeks to steady relationsU.S. Senate delays crypto market structure bill amid industry and political riftsBOK’s Rhee warns weak won can lift inflation, signals U.S. trade and FX updateYen steadies on intervention warnings, but Takaichi trade keeps pressure intactBank of Korea holds at 2.5% and drops easing-bias language as growth risks tilt upPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0064 (vs. estimate at 6.9678)Oil slips: US calls UN security council meet.UK housing outlook brightens. Also, Britain climbs global FDI rankings.ICYMI - Venezuelan oil exports to China set to slump as U.S. blockade bitesJapan December 2025 PPI +0.1% m/m (expected +0.1%, prior +0.3%)Japan firms warn China tensions threaten economy as BOJ rate hike wins supportTrump touts Venezuela oil talks after crude slid earlier on his Iran remarksBessent warns on excessive FX volatility in talks with Japan, urges sound communicationTrump imposes 25% tariff on select advanced AI chips, signals broader semiconductor leviesTrump invokes national security powers to cut U.S. reliance on imported critical mineralsinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: US retail sales modestly beat. Eyes on IranAt a glance:Trump orders critical-minerals talks, invokes Section 232; silver drops sharply from record highs.White House imposes 25% tariff on select advanced AI chips, citing national security.U.S.–Japan talks flag excessive FX volatility; USD/JPY steadies near 158.60.Geopolitics in focus as U.S. seeks UN briefing on Iran, Trump signals preference for swift action.Asia policy mix steady: Japan PPI elevated, BOK holds rates, PBoC sets strongest CNY fix since 2023.President Donald Trump ordered the Commerce Department and the Office of the United States Trade Representative to negotiate agreements aimed at cutting U.S. reliance on imported processed critical minerals, citing national security risks. He invoked Section 232 authority to monitor and adjust imports if necessary, following a meeting earlier this week led by Scott Bessent, where critical mineral supply security was flagged as a priority. The orders were cited by traders as a contributor to the sharp fall in silver prices from record highs.Trump also signed a proclamation targeting semiconductor imports on national security grounds, imposing a 25% tariff on a narrow set of advanced computing chips. The White House specifically named products such as Nvidia’s H200 and Advanced Micro Devices’s MI325X.Separately, the U.S. Treasury said Bessent raised concerns about “excessive” exchange-rate volatility in a meeting with his Japanese counterpart, stressing that large, disorderly currency moves are undesirable and can undermine economic and financial stability. Treasury added that Bessent emphasised the need for sound monetary policy formulation and clear communication to anchor expectations and limit destabilising FX swings.The USD/JPY response was muted following Wednesday’s sharp decline, with the pair trading slightly firmer on the session to near 158.60 highs. In Japan, December wholesale inflation, the Producer Price Index, also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index, came in line with expectations but remained elevated at 2.4% y/y.Geopolitics also remained in focus after NBC News reported Trump wants any renewed U.S. military action against Iran to be “swift and decisive,” though advisers warned a rapid collapse of the Iranian government cannot be guaranteed. Separately, the United Nations Security Council is set to meet Thursday for a U.S.-requested briefing on the situation in Iran.In Asia, the Bank of Korea held its benchmark rate steady as expected, while monitoring won weakness and risks tied to property-market imbalances. China’s People’s Bank of China set the daily yuan fixing at its strongest level (for CNY) since May 18, 2023.In corporate news, Toyota Motor sweetened its bid for Toyota Industries by 15% to ¥18,800 per share, sending Toyota Industries shares to a record high. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) -0.88%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -0.55% Shanghai Composite -0.6%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) +0.43% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:BOJ expected to hold rates steady through MarchJuly seen as most likely timing for next hike76% expect rates at 1% or higher by SeptemberMedian terminal rate forecast lifted to 1.5%Political backdrop adds caution to BOJ timingThe Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its key policy rate on hold through March, with economists seeing the next move coming mid-year and policy tightening extending further into 2026, according to a Reuters poll.Of the 67 economists surveyed, 97% expect no change at the January and March meetings, reflecting a broad consensus that the BOJ will move cautiously after lifting rates to a 30-year high of 0.75% in December. The central bank waited 11 months between its January 2025 hike and the December move, reinforcing expectations of a measured pace.Looking ahead, 76% of respondents expect the policy rate to reach 1% or higher by the end of September, up from 69% in the previous poll, with July seen as the most likely timing for the next increase. Among those who specified a month, 43% picked July, while smaller shares pointed to June, April or later in the year. The bias toward summer reflects a desire by policymakers to assess the economic impact of the latest hike and align decisions with the BOJ’s Outlook Report.Beyond that, expectations for the eventual peak in rates have shifted higher. The median forecast for the terminal rate is now 1.5%, up from 1.0% in a poll conducted nearly a year ago, though estimates still span a wide range between 1% and 2%. While most economists see only one rate increase in 2026, nearly a third expect two.The policy outlook is complicated by politics. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who plans to call a snap general election, has stressed her preference for low interest rates and rattled markets by asserting influence over monetary direction. Economists say the BOJ is unlikely to rush unless yen weakness feeds meaningfully into imported inflation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Ueda says wage–price mechanism likely to be sustainedBOJ to keep raising rates if economy and prices track forecastsNormalisation framed as smoothing achievement of inflation targetMessage aligns with gradual, data-dependent tightening pathMarket impact modest; focus remains on timing and paceUeda sticks to the script: sustained wage–price cycle and further BOJ hikes if forecasts hold:The comments reinforce expectations of gradual BOJ tightening, offering modest yen support at the margin, but likely won’t shift pricing without fresh evidence on wages, inflation or the policy timeline.---Kazuo Ueda reiterated the Bank of Japan’s core message that Japan is moving toward a more durable inflation regime, with a mechanism in place for wages and prices to rise moderately “in tandem” and remain sustained.In fresh remarks, Ueda said the BOJ expects to continue raising interest rates if the economy and prices develop broadly in line with the bank’s forecasts. The guidance keeps the focus on a gradual normalisation path rather than a rapid tightening cycle, and underscores that further moves remain conditional on incoming data confirming a stable, demand-driven inflation backdrop.Ueda also argued that adjusting the degree of monetary support will help Japan achieve the BOJ’s price target smoothly and contribute to sustained growth. The framing is consistent with the BOJ’s attempt to balance two objectives: removing extraordinary stimulus without undermining the wage–price momentum it believes is now taking hold, and managing the transition in a way that minimises market volatility.For markets, the remarks are broadly “as expected” — reinforcing the idea that the BOJ sees the wage-price cycle as durable enough to justify continued policy adjustment, but not so overheated that it demands urgency. In FX terms, that tends to support the yen at the margin by keeping normalisation on the table, though the currency’s direction still hinges heavily on global rate differentials and domestic politics. In rates, it validates the market’s focus on the pace and timing of further hikes rather than questioning the direction of travel. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:China calls Carney’s visit pivotal and symbolicBeijing signals willingness to rebuild trust with CanadaOttawa strikes cooperative, forward-looking toneVisit hints at tentative reset after strained relationsNear-term symbolism outweighs immediate policy substanceChina and Canada struck a conciliatory tone on bilateral relations as China’s foreign minister described Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit as having “pivotal” and “symbolic” significance, signalling a potential reset after several years of strained ties.In comments released by China’s foreign ministry, Wang Yi said Beijing was willing to enhance mutual trust, improve communication and eliminate interference in order to deepen cooperation with Canada. The remarks underscore China’s interest in stabilising relations with a G7 economy at a time when geopolitical fragmentation and trade realignment are reshaping global supply chains.Canada’s foreign minister Mélanie Joly echoed the forward-looking tone, saying both sides would continue to make progress together over the short and long term for the benefit of people in both countries. While no concrete policy measures were announced, the language marked a notable shift toward engagement after years dominated by disputes over security, trade barriers and diplomatic tensions.Carney’s visit comes as Ottawa reassesses its international economic strategy amid slower global growth and rising competition for investment and export markets. For Beijing, the outreach fits with a broader push to reduce diplomatic isolation and shore up ties with advanced economies even as relations with the United States remain tense.The symbolism of the visit may matter more than immediate outcomes. Improved dialogue could eventually smooth cooperation in areas such as climate policy, agriculture, education and selective trade, while also lowering the risk of further escalation in politically sensitive sectors. Markets will be watching for any follow-through, particularly given Canada’s exposure to global commodities and China’s role as a major end-market, but for now the visit appears aimed at rebuilding trust rather than delivering near-term deals. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Senate Banking Committee cancels crypto bill markupCoinbase withdraws support, exposing deeper divisionsStablecoin rewards and ethics rules key sticking pointsBill aimed to define U.S. crypto regulatory frameworkBitcoin trades slightly lower on renewed uncertaintyThe U.S. Senate Banking Committee has cancelled its planned markup of a sweeping crypto market-structure bill, delaying what was set to be the Senate’s first major legislative vote on comprehensive digital-asset regulation after months of negotiations.Committee chairman Tim Scott said talks were continuing, but confirmed that the legislation would no longer be taken up as scheduled and that no new date had been set. The setback follows public opposition from Coinbase, which withdrew its support on the eve of the markup, compounding existing rifts among lawmakers, regulators and industry participants.The bill was designed to define how federal agencies oversee the U.S. crypto industry, including the division of authority between regulators and the rules governing trading venues, token classification and market conduct. It has been viewed as a cornerstone of Washington’s attempt to provide “rules of the road” after years of enforcement-driven regulation and legal uncertainty.Several unresolved issues ultimately proved too difficult to bridge. One of the most contentious was whether to allow stablecoin rewards or yield-style programs — an idea strongly opposed by Wall Street banks, which warned such products could undermine traditional deposits. Lobbying on that front reportedly eroded Republican unity on the committee. Democrats, meanwhile, pushed for ethics provisions that would restrict senior government officials from profiting from crypto activities, proposals that the White House of Donald Trump was said to resist, arguing the issue fell outside the committee’s remit.The delay is a setback for an industry that has spent years and significant political capital pressing for regulatory clarity. While the Senate Agriculture Committee is still expected to consider related legislation later this month, the Banking Committee’s work has been the leading edge of the broader effort.For markets, the pause reinforces regulatory uncertainty. Digital assets edged lower following the news, with bitcoin trading slightly softer as investors reassessed the near-term prospects for U.S. legislative progress, even as longer-term momentum toward regulation remains intact. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:BOK hold was unanimous, Rhee saysFX volatility driven by geopolitics and overseas investmentAI-related foreign stock buying cited as key won dragGovt to announce on U.S. trade deal and FX market laterWeak won can lift inflation but crisis risk seen low; “ample dollars” reassuranceRhee Chang-yong said the Bank of Korea’s decision to keep its base rate unchanged was unanimous, underscoring broad agreement on the policy board even as officials remain increasingly focused on foreign-exchange volatility and capital-flow dynamics.Speaking after Thursday’s decision, Rhee said policymakers need to stay cautious on FX volatility, attributing the won’s weakness to geopolitical risks and continued overseas investment by residents. He singled out domestic purchases of AI-related overseas stocks as a key driver, noting that the won’s weakening toward 1,470 per dollar earlier in January was also linked to heightened geopolitical concerns. He added that retail investors’ overseas stock buying is rising again, reinforcing the need to change expectations that the won will keep falling.Rhee indicated that five board members expect rates to remain unchanged in the near term, while one member argued the door for a near-term cut should remain open, keeping some flexibility in the outlook. He also said higher interest rates alone are unlikely to calm property price upswings, suggesting the BOK does not see rate policy as a single-purpose lever for housing risks.On FX coordination, Rhee thanked the welfare ministry and the National Pension Service for cooperating with FX authorities, and said the NPS has recently conducted hedging that helped stabilise the currency. He warned that temporary measures may be necessary to address FX volatility alongside longer-term solutions, and said Korea would not agree to sustained outflows of around $20 billion a year into U.S. investments if FX conditions were unstable.Most notably, Rhee said the government will make an announcement later in the day on a U.S. trade deal and the FX market, a signal that put traders on alert for fresh policy messaging or measures designed to damp volatility.In his latest remarks, Rhee said a weak won could add to inflationary pressures, but he downplayed systemic risk, arguing it is unlikely to trigger a financial crisis. He also stressed that South Korea has an ample supply of U.S. dollars, a reassurance aimed at anchoring confidence and limiting tail-risk pricing in the currency market. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Yen neared 160 on Wednesday as “Takaichi trade” stays dominantMOF and U.S. rhetoric triggers pullback from highsAuthorities escalate intervention warningsFiscal-policy expectations keep pressure on yenEquity inflows reinforce currency hedging flowsThe so-called “Takaichi trade” is expected to remain firmly in place heading into Japan’s snap Lower House election next month, with many market participants judging that actual FX intervention may be the only effective tool left to reverse yen weakness in the near term.The yen briefly approached the psychologically important ¥160 per dollar level this week, prompting a sharp escalation in official rhetoric. Verbal warnings from Japan’s Ministry of Finance during London trading hours, Tokyo officials intensify verbal intervention on the Japanese yenJapanese Yen rebounds amid barrage of verbal intervention and "sell the fact" tradefollowed by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Bessent warns on excessive FX volatility in talks with Japan, urges sound communicationhelped cap USD/JPY at 159.45 before triggering a pullback toward the mid-158s. Traders have long viewed the 160 level as a de-facto intervention threshold, and the coordinated tone from Tokyo and Washington unsettled positioning.Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities would take “appropriate action against excessive currency moves without excluding any options,” describing recent yen declines as rapid and out of line with fundamentals. Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura echoed the message, warning that one-sided, speculative moves could force a response. Japan last intervened in July 2024, when USD/JPY neared 162.Despite the warnings, the structural drivers behind yen weakness remain intact. Markets continue to price in expansionary fiscal policy under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, with her popularity and the ruling LDP’s prospects for reclaiming a Lower House majority underpinning expectations of looser fiscal settings. Japanese equities have surged on this theme, with the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX hitting record highs, drawing heavy foreign inflows hedged via yen selling.Importer demand for dollars has also remained persistent amid elevated global prices, while the clearing of upside USD/JPY option barriers since mid-2025 has reduced resistance to further gains. Although Bessent has urged Japan to lean more on faster Bank of Japan rate hikes rather than intervention, the BOJ’s cautious normalisation path suggests that without direct action, yen weakness could re-emerge once election-related noise fades.The chart above is using hourly candles, these are daily for a longer perspective. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:BOK holds base rate at 2.5%, in line with forecastsExports seen staying favourable; semiconductors a key growth tailwindBank flags upside risks to 2026 growth outlookDovish “room for rate cuts” language removed from statementWarns on Seoul housing risks and heightened FX volatility; notes won weakness driversThe Bank of Korea kept its base rate unchanged at 2.5%, matching market expectations, while signalling a slightly firmer stance in its policy communication. Alongside the hold, the central bank highlighted that exports should remain favourable and said the policy board will continue to make decisions while supporting a recovery in economic growth.Notably, the Bank of Korea flagged upside risks to this year’s growth forecast, pointing to a strong semiconductor sector as a key tailwind for activity. The emphasis on semiconductors underscores the central role of Korea’s tech cycle in shaping the macro outlook, particularly as global demand for advanced computing and memory products remains a key swing factor for exports and corporate investment.The statement also showed a meaningful shift in tone: the BOK dropped language that had explicitly referenced leaving room for rate cuts, and also removed phrasing about deciding “whether and when” to implement further base-rate cuts. While the bank did not turn overtly hawkish, the removal of easing bias language suggests policymakers are less confident they will need to cut again soon, and are prioritising flexibility as growth prospects improve.Financial stability and currency risks remained central to the message. The BOK said it would closely monitor changes in domestic and external policy conditions, and stressed the need to remain cautious about housing-price risks and FX volatility. It specifically noted the won had weakened recently due to yen weakness, heightened geopolitical risks, and continued overseas investment by residents, while warning that risks tied to exchange-rate volatility remain elevated.On inflation, the bank said price pressures are expected to gradually decline toward 2%, reinforcing a view that disinflation is progressing but not yet finished. The overall mix, steady rates, a slightly firmer growth outlook, and a toned-down easing signal, reads as a “hold and watch” stance: supportive of recovery, alert to market volatility, and wary of reigniting housing risks, especially in Seoul and surrounding areas. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.The previous close was 6.9739.PBOC injects 179.3bn yuan through 7-day reverse repos at an unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:U.S. calls emergency UN Security Council meeting on IranTrump advisers signal preference for swift action if requiredOfficials concede no guarantee of rapid Iran collapseOil prices dip as immediate escalation risk easesGeopolitical risk premium partially unwindsOil prices edged lower as markets weighed fresh geopolitical headlines on Iran that pointed to rising diplomatic activity but offered little immediate clarity on escalation risks. Traders appeared to focus on the absence of concrete military action, trimming some of the risk premium that had built into crude earlier in the week.According to Al Jazeera, the United States has called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council to discuss the situation in Iran. The move signals heightened diplomatic engagement rather than an imminent unilateral response, at least in the near term, and was read by markets as a stabilising step following days of heightened tension.Separate reporting from NBC News said advisers to President Donald Trump have indicated that while the White House would favour any action against Iran to be swift and decisive, there is no guarantee of a rapid collapse of the Iranian regime. That acknowledgement of uncertainty appeared to temper expectations of a short, contained confrontation.For oil markets, the combination of diplomatic escalation at the United Nations and caution from U.S. officials reduced immediate fears of supply disruption. With no new sanctions, strikes or shipping restrictions announced, crude prices dipped as traders reassessed the likelihood that tensions would translate into near-term losses in Iranian or regional output.That said, the situation remains fluid. Any shift from diplomatic pressure toward military or economic action could quickly reverse the move lower in oil, particularly given Iran’s strategic position in global energy flows and the sensitivity of Middle East supply routes. For now, however, markets appear to be treating the headlines as risk management rather than a trigger for escalation. NBC News: "Trump has told his national security team that he would want any U.S. military action in Iran to deliver a swift and decisive blow to the regime and not spark a sustained war that dragged on for weeks or months...But Trump’s advisers have so far not been able to guarantee to him that the regime would quickly collapse after an American military strike" This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:RICS sees sales expectations turn significantly more positiveHouse price balance steady, but activity remains weakRate-cut expectations and fiscal clarity lift housing sentimentUK climbs to third in global FDI rankings, McKinsey saysAI and clean energy dominate inflows, manufacturing lagsBritain’s housing market showed tentative signs of stabilisation in December, with surveyors turning more upbeat on the outlook for sales and prices despite ongoing weakness in current activity, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).The RICS survey showed the headline house price balance holding at -14 in December, unchanged from November, though the prior month’s reading was revised slightly higher. While buyer enquiries remained in negative territory for a sixth consecutive month, near-term and 12-month sales expectations improved sharply. Expectations for sales volumes over the next three months rose to their highest level since October 2024, while optimism for the year ahead climbed to the strongest level since late 2024.RICS attributed the improved sentiment to easing uncertainty around UK fiscal policy following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ November budget, as well as growing confidence that borrowing costs will fall further as the Bank of England moves closer to interest-rate cuts. New vendor instructions stabilised after months of decline, though surveyors cautioned that low appraisal activity suggests any meaningful increase in housing stock will take time. Conditions in the rental market softened, with tenant demand easing and new landlord instructions remaining deeply negative.In other news, Britain has climbed global rankings as a destination for foreign direct investment, helped by strong inflows linked to artificial intelligence and clean energy, according to consultancy McKinsey & Company.McKinsey said the UK ranked as the world’s third-largest destination for newly announced FDI projects between 2022 and 2025, behind the United States and India, with annual inflation-adjusted inflows averaging around $85 billion. However, the firm warned that investment remains heavily concentrated in large AI and clean-energy projects, with comparatively little flowing into advanced manufacturing such as EV batteries and semiconductors, leaving Britain at risk of missing out on broader industrial investment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Venezuelan oil exports to China set to drop sharply from FebruaryOnly three shipments passed the U.S. blockade since mid-DecemberChina took 75% of Venezuela’s oil exports in 2025Large volumes still in transit, easing near-term supply stressChinese teapot refiners likely hardest hitPosting this as an ICYMI. Venezuelan oil exports to China are set to fall sharply from February after a U.S. blockade dramatically reduced the number of tankers able to leave the country, according to traders and analysts cited by Reuters.China, Venezuela’s largest crude buyer, has seen shipments dwindle after Donald Trump imposed a blockade in December on sanctioned vessels carrying Venezuelan oil, part of Washington’s pressure campaign that culminated in a U.S. military incursion and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Trump has since claimed U.S. control over the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries founding member and encouraged U.S. firms to invest in its energy sector.Since the blockade began, only three tankers carrying Venezuelan crude and fuel oil have continued toward Asia, with roughly 5 million barrels expected to reach China by late February. That equates to about 166,000 barrels per day, a steep drop from the 642,000 bpd Venezuela exported to China on average in 2025, when China accounted for roughly 75% of the country’s oil exports, according to internal PDVSA documents.The decline follows U.S. seizures of Venezuela-linked vessels, prompting many shipowners to abandon or reverse voyages to avoid confiscation. While around a dozen tankers attempted to depart with transponders switched off in early January, most later returned after Caracas’ interim authorities negotiated a 50-million-barrel oil supply arrangement with Washington.Despite the looming drop, Chinese refiners are not scrambling for replacement barrels. Data from Kpler and Vortexa show 43–52 million barrels of Venezuelan oil still en route to Asia, while China took a record 660,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude in November, leaving inventories well stocked.Looking ahead, the biggest impact is likely to fall on China’s independent “teapot” refiners, which rely heavily on Venezuelan grades such as Merey. Traders say teapots may turn to alternatives like Canadian heavy crude in the second quarter as Venezuelan flows are redirected toward the U.S. or constrained by enforcement risks. ---Oil reserves weren't Trump's only target This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.