In case you missed it, Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation over the weekend after the disastrous upper house election loss back in July. The writing was already on the wall and it took him long enough to finally step down. The Japanese yen has opened lower in trading to start the week while domestic equities are cheering on with relief from the announcement.However, it looks like we might have to wait until next month for his successor to be confirmed. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Published on investingLive.com (formerly ForexLive.com) Price now: 3,628.2 (earlier reference); see live snapshots below Bullish above: 3,637 Bearish below: 3,628.2 Primary bias: Neutral until a threshold holds Partial targets (Bulls): 3,640.2 · 3,648.7 · 3,654.4 Partial targets (Bears): 3,620.3 · 3,616.7 · 3,613.2 · 3,605.5 · 3,595.9Live Snapshot — Gold Futures & Spot (at the time of this analysis)GC1! (COMEX futures): 3,627.1, -0.72% Day’s range: 3,623.0 – 3,637.9 · 52-week range: 2,528.9 – 3,655.5XAUUSD (spot): 3,584.145, -0.07% Day’s range: 3,583.810 – 3,597.200 · 52-week range: 2,500.190 – 3,600.205Note: Futures can trade at a premium/discount to spot due to carry, delivery month specifics, and liquidity. Apply the threshold you trade to the instrument you’re trading.Gold Price Outlook — Context & Directional Bias (Today)GC futures sit just below the bearish trigger (3,628.2). Per tradeCompass rules, bears still want acceptance/sustainability below 3,628.2 before pressing targets. Conversely, only sustained trade above 3,637 confirms the bullish path for today’s gold price prediction. Also note Friday’s textbook breakout that initiated this leg higher—see our breakdown: It’s a textbook breakout in gold (Sept 5).Key Levels & Profit Targets — Gold Technical Analysis for Today (tradeCompass)Bullish path (only if 3,637 holds):3,640.2 — Liquidity magnet from Sep 3 & 5 sweeps; often the first reaction area.3,648.7 — Just beneath Friday’s POC; heavy prior activity invites retests. Move the stop to the entry if this target is reached.3,654.4 — Into Friday’s VAH; common spot for responsive selling/scale-outs.Bearish path (only if 3,628.2 breaks and holds):3,620.3 — Above Sep 3 POC; logical first scale-out.3,616.7 — Near Sep 3 VWAP and Friday’s lower VWAP deviation; confluence favors reaction. Move the stop to the entry if this target is reached.3,613.2 — Just over Sep 4 VAH; prior acceptance edge.3,605.5 — Notable liquidity pool (Sep 3–4); can fuel continuations or sharp bounces.3,595.9 — Above Sep 4 VAL; deeper bearish control if reached.Swing extensions for shorts (if trend accelerates): 3,577 and 3,566 (tied to Sep 2 references).Gold News & Macro Drivers Supporting Today’s ViewCentral bank demand: China added gold for the 10th straight month, reinforcing the strategic bid beneath price.Reserve diversification: El Salvador bought gold for the first time since 1990, signaling diversification away from Bitcoin and supporting longer-term allocation narratives.ETF flows: India’s gold ETFs saw $233M of net inflows in August, the third straight month—an incremental tailwind to dips (Moneycontrol via TradingView News).These catalysts don’t override intraday levels, but they help explain why dips into high-volume nodes can find committed buyers.Gold Price Prediction — Trade Plan & Triggers (Today)Longs only above 3,637 (sustained): 3,640.2 → 3,648.7 → 3,654.4 with staged exits.Shorts only below 3,628.2 (sustained): 3,620.3 → 3,616.7 → 3,613.2 → 3,605.5 → 3,595.9.If neither threshold holds, treat conditions as balanced and fade extremes with discipline.Educational Spotlight (Today): VWAP, Value Area & Liquidity PoolsVWAP approximates session “fair value” by volume. Above VWAP often denotes buyer control; below it, sellers typically dominate.Value Area (VAH/VAL) outlines where most trading occurred; edges frequently act as reaction zones as inventory rebalances.Liquidity pools are clusters of resting orders near obvious levels; price often “hunts” them, triggering stops before the next leg.tradeCompass Method — Risk & Trade ManagementOne trade per direction per tradeCompass. After targets hit, stand down until a fresh map is published.Partial profits: Scale at VWAP/POC/VAH/VAL to bank risk while keeping a runner for continuation.Stops: Place stops just beyond the opposite threshold; a breach invalidates the setup.Confirmation: Your choice—instant triggers, two-bar closes, or a 5–15 min hold above/below thresholds.Professional DisclaimerThis gold technical analysis for today and gold price prediction are decision-support only, not financial advice. Futures and CFDs carry significant risk. Manage size, use stops, and trade responsibly. Visit investingLive.com for additional views. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Standard Chartered now expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver a larger 50bp rate cut in September, doubling its previous forecast of a 25bp move. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The yen slumped after Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba resigned under party pressure, with USD/JPY and crosses hitting multi-month highs. Revised Japan GDP showed stronger-than-expected growth, while China’s August trade data disappointed, led by a sharp drop in exports to the U.S. Japan PM Ishiba resigns, yen falls:Yen is off to a weak start with the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister IshibaJapanese media reports that the ruling party leadership election could be in early OctoberYen may weaken as Japan leadership change clouds BOJ outlook, MUFG saysOther:China's August yuan terms exports +4.8% y/y (prior +8.0%) (+4.4% in USD terms)Monday - Xi, Putin to attend BRICS trade summit on U.S. tariffs; Modi skipsTrump Fed candidate Hassett stresses central bank independence from politicsChina - Shenzhen lifts home-buying limits across key districtsJapan sells 0.6 trillion yen in JGBs at enhanced-liquidity auctionCitigroup and Nomura warn that the PBOC may refrain from lowering interest rates, RRRPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1029 (vs. estimate at 7.1317)Goldman Sachs says it keeps its Brent/WTI price forecast unchanged for 2025Trump to foreign firms: Respect U.S. immigration laws, train American workersJapan’s Q2 GDP revised higher to 2.2%, fifth straight quarter of growth - recapJapan's Topix has risen to its highest everJapan Q2 GDP: +0.5% q/q (preliminary was +0.3%)UK pay settlements hit lowest since 2021 as hiring and wages weakenTrump says not happy with Russia-Ukraine 'situation' - EU leaders coming to the US Mon/TueSNB sets high bar for negative rates as Schlegel warns of side effectsEl Salvador buys gold for first time since 1990 to diversify reserves (away from Bitcoin)USD/JPY - we got a gap to fill!USD/JPY update, around 148.10. ICYMI, JPY slammed lower after Japan PM Ishiba resignedChina to reopen bond market to Russian energy firms amid deepening tiesChina eyes offshore RMB stablecoin to accelerate yuan internationalizationOPEC+ to raise oil output in October as Saudi pushes market-share strategyChina adds gold for 10th month as bullion surges past $3,500 an ounceWeekend - Czech central bank signals longer restrictive policy to curb inflation risksMonday open levels, indicative FX prices, 8 September '25. Japan PM Ishiba quit, yen lowerNewsquawk Week Ahead: US CPI, BLS revisions, ECB, OPEC, French Vote, China CPI, Japan GDPThe big market mover from the weekend was the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba, who stepped down under heavy pressure from his party after a historic election defeat. Ishiba, who came to power in October 2024, saw his coalition lose its majorities in both the lower and upper houses of parliament.The yen gapped lower in thin early Asia trading, with USD/JPY and crosses jumping before liquidity built in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore pushed it weaker still. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY touched fresh 12-month highs, while USD/JPY climbed as far as 148.57 before easing back towards 148.00. While some gap-filling is possible, political uncertainty is likely to keep the yen under pressure and the Bank of Japan sidelined until a new leader is in place. The leadership election is expected in early October, with the firm date to be announced Tuesday. Japanese equities gained on the news.On the data front, revised GDP showed the economy expanding at a stronger-than-expected 2.2% annualised pace in Q2 (0.5% q/q), up from the 1.0% preliminary estimate. The upgrade reflected firmer private consumption and marked a fifth consecutive quarter of growth.From China, August trade data revealed exports rising but missing expectations, with year-on-year growth the slowest since February. Shipments to the U.S. plunged 33% y/y, underscoring the drag from tariffs.Apart from yen moves, other major FX pairs traded relatively quietly. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) +1.5% (Japan's TOPIX index hit a record high)Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +0.35%Shanghai Composite +0.11%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.27% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China's August exports and imports both jumpChinese Trade Balance USD terms (August 2025) 102.33bnexpected 99.2bn, prior 98.24bnImports YY (August) +1.3% in USD terms, missing expectationsexpected +3.0%, prior +4.1%China imported a record 12.3mn metric tons of soybeans in August Exports YY (August) +4.4% expected +5.0%, prior +7.2%although export growth marched higher, it missed expectationsexport growth the loest since February -Chinese Imports YY (CNY terms )(August) +1.7%prior +4.8%Exports YY (CNY)(August) +4.8% prior +8.0% -YTD ... China's total goods imports and exports in yuan-denominated terms rose to 29.57 trillion yuan (US$4.14 trillion) in the first eight months of 2025, up 3.5% year-on-year, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed on Monday.YTD trade surplus with the US is USD185.8bnexports to the US -33% y/y in August-Analysis from Citi shows China container ship departures for the U.S. continued to falldown 24.9% y/y in the 15 days ending September 312.4% drop a week earlier This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s President Xi Jinping will attend a virtual BRICS summit hosted by Brazil on September 8Xi is expected to deliver a key speech on U.S. trade policiesRussian President Vladimir Putin will also participateIndia’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will send a senior representative in his placeBrazilian President Lula convened the meeting to coordinate emerging market responses to U.S. tariffs and promote multilateralism. The online summit will begin at 8 am US Eastern time.Speeches are closed to the media and no joint statement is planned. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Earlier:USD/JPY update, around 148.10. ICYMI, JPY slammed lower after Japan PM Ishiba resignedThe yen gapped lower in the early hours of Monday here in Asia:Yen is off to a weak start with the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister IshibaMonday open levels, indicative FX prices, 8 September '25. Japan PM Ishiba quit, yen lowerThere is a big gap to fill as Asia trade becomes more active. Its still very early. 7.35 am in Sydney6.35 am in Tokyo5.35 am in Hong Kong and Singapore. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba resigned on the weekend. Ishiba had been under pressure over big electoral losses ( he lost majorities in both the lower and upper houses of the Diet). The yen gapped lower in the early hours of Monday here in Asia:Yen is off to a weak start with the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister IshibaMonday open levels, indicative FX prices, 8 September '25. Japan PM Ishiba quit, yen lowerYen crosses have gained. Screenshot via Bloomberg: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China is preparing to reopen its domestic bond market to Russian energy firms, in a step that highlights the deepening financial and political partnership between Beijing and Moscow, according to the Financial Times. At a late August meeting in Guangzhou, senior regulators assured Russian executives that they would back the issuance of renminbi-denominated “panda bonds.” If completed, it would mark the first such Russian deal since the Ukraine invasion, and the first corporate issuance since Rusal raised 1.5 billion yuan in 2017. The talks came alongside President Putin’s recent visit to Beijing, where he met Xi Jinping, who described him as an “old friend.” The trip also advanced a key energy agreement, including the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline between Gazprom and China. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The sharp fall in the U.S. dollar during the first half of 2025 has prompted Chinese financial institutions to accelerate efforts to expand the global role of the renminbi. Policymakers and market participants see the launch of an offshore RMB-denominated stablecoin as a potential vehicle to provide a credible alternative to the dollar in trade and finance. The initiative is part of China’s broader push to reduce reliance on the greenback and strengthen its influence in global capital markets.Info comes via a Chinese media report. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

OPEC+ will lift oil production again in October, though at a slower pace, as Saudi Arabia prioritises market share over price stability. The group agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day, down sharply from the larger hikes of recent months. The decision marks the start of an early unwind of a 1.65 million bpd cut, following the complete reversal of a 2.5 million bpd reduction earlier this year. Analysts say the move is less about volume and more about signalling OPEC+’s intent to reclaim share, even if it risks lower prices. Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain the only members with capacity to add significant supply. The announcement comes ahead of a seasonal demand slowdown, with crude already down about 15% this year to ~$65 a barrel, pressuring oil company profits and jobs despite support from Western sanctions on Russia and Iran.-Bearish for oil prices near term, supportive for importers (EUR, JPY, INR); potential headwind for petrocurrencies (CAD, NOK, RUB) if crude stays weak. Having said all this, the decision has not come as too much of a surprise for markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China boosted its gold reserves for a 10th straight month in August as it continues diversifying away from the US dollar. added 0.06 million troy ounceslifting total holdings to 74.02 million ounces since resuming purchases last November, when it began accumulating 1.22 million ounces overallmove comes as gold prices have surged over 30% this year to above $3,500 per ounce, driven by expectations of US rate cuts and concerns about political interference in the Federal Reserve. Goldman Sachs has suggested further damage to Fed independence could propel bullion toward $5,000. While global central bank buying has slowed with higher prices, the World Gold Council says geopolitical risks should keep official demand resilient. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Czech National Bank Deputy Governor Eva Zamrazilova said monetary policy will need to remain restrictive for longer to contain inflation risks. “We don’t expect high inflation outside the tolerance band next year, but to meet the inflation target, we must have monetary policy at least slightly restrictive, which is the level where we are now,” “It’s now only very slightly restrictive at 3.5%.”The central bank has kept its benchmark rate steady at 3.5% over the last two meetings after beginning an easing cycle in late 2023. While policymakers remain open to future moves, they are worried about surging housing prices, stubborn service-sector inflation, and faster wage growth that could fuel consumer demand. Zamrazilova noted that policy is now only “very slightly restrictive” and that this stance must be maintained to reach the inflation target. Although a stronger koruna is limiting import costs and lower energy prices are helping for now, both supports may prove temporary.Info comes via a Bloomberg (gated) report. Supportive for CZK, could weigh on EUR/CZK carry trades. The Czechs are amidst preparations to adopt the euro. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week. Yen the mover:Yen is off to a weak start with the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister IshibaEUR/USD 1.1710USD/JPY 148.13 (puts EUR/JPY around 173.45)GBP/USD 1.3502USD/CHF 0.7978USD/CAD 1.3833AUD/USD 0.6553NZD/USD 0.5892 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JPY is significantly weaker to open the new week's trades following the weekend resignation of IshibaUSD/JPY is around 148.22 compared with its later Friday level around 147.35Yen crosses are higher also.EUR/JPY around 173.45Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation on the weekendthis followed growing pressure within his party to accept responsibility for a historic defeat in this year's electionIshiba came to power in October 2024Since coming to the leadership position his ruling coalition has lost its majorities in both the lower and upper houses of parliament This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mon: Japanese GDP (Q2), German Industrial Output (Jul), EZ Sentix Index (Sep), US Employment Trends (Aug), Chinese Trade Balance (Aug), French no-confidence voteTue: UN General Assembly (Iran focus likely), Apple Event, BLS Prelim Benchmark RevisionsWed: Chinese Inflation (Aug), Swedish Monthly GDP (Jul), Norwegian CPI (Aug), US PPI (Aug)Thu: ECB Announcement, CBRT Announcement, Swedish CPIF (Aug), US CPI (Aug)Fri: CBR Announcement, Japanese Industrial Output (Jul), German CPI Final (Aug), UK GDP (Jul), French Final CPI (Aug), Spanish Final CPI (Aug), US University of Michigan Prelim (Sep)OPEC (Sun): OPEC-8 will meet on Sunday, 7th September, to possibly discuss starting the unwind of the 1.65mln BPD tranche of cuts, marking a shift from plans to keep these specific curbs until end-2026. Sources on September 3rd suggested OPEC+ is reportedly mulling another oil production hike at Sunday’s meeting. This is in contrast to initial expectations that the group of eight will maintain its production policy. Russian Deputy PM Novak clarified that OPEC-8 are not discussing production increase now, and no agenda has been set for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting yet. Novak added that current market conditions and forecasts are to be considered. According to delegates cited by Bloomberg, the group would consider all output options. Bloomberg since reported that Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to speed up its next oil production increase. No decision has been made, and it’s not clear whether any increase would be agreed as soon as Sunday or only in later months, but a range of options remains possible, including a pause for a period. Delegates cited by Argus suggest that if a hike were to go ahead, "they expect a cautious approach, maintaining the flexibility to increase, pause, reduce or even reverse policy on a month-to-month basis." It's worth noting that members are to conduct a call on Saturday to discuss options; thus, all sources beforehand are to be taken with a pinch of salt. Furthermore, doubts remain over some countries' ability to raise production further, such as Kazakhstan, which has been producing near maximum capacity. Argus Media, citing delegates, floated a potential plan for the unwind of the 1.65mln BPD tranche of production cuts: A 12-month phased unwinding is being considered, which would imply ~137,000 BPD added each month. Actual monthly increments may be as low as 60,000–70,000 BPD, per delegate sources, amid some countries' ability to raise production further. “The impact will be minimal,” said a delegate, estimating actual additions at 700,000–800,000 BPD at best.Japanese GDP (Mon): GDP Q/Q is expected to be unrevised at 0.3% (prev. 0.3%). The growth seen in the flash release was primarily driven by strong business investment and a significant rebound in net exports, which countered a negative contribution from inventories. However, the data may prove to be stale amid the ongoing impact of US tariffs. This month, US President Trump signed an Executive Order to officially implement the US-Japan trade deal in which the US will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports, although Japan's top trade negotiator, Akazawa, noted the amended executive order does not mention most-favoured-nation treatment for pharma and chips, and will continue to push for the treatment. Analysts at ING suggest “Japan’s second-quarter GDP likely remained near the flash estimate of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth. Meanwhile, the August producer price index is projected to rise to 2.7% YoY, indicating continued pipeline price pressures.”Chinese Trade Balance (Mon): There are currently no forecasts for the trade balance data. Analysts at ING “don’t expect major surprises from China’s August trade data in light of the extension of the US-China trade war truce, which kept tariffs at the status quo. Export growth could slow to around 3.8% year on year, while imports could continue to pick up to around 6.2% YoY, thanks to base effects from 2024.” Note, there have been no significant US-China trade developments since last month.French No Confidence Vote (Mon):French PM Bayrou will be subject to a confidence vote in relation to his fiscal plans. A vote he is, barring an 11th-hour update, almost certain to lose. Thereafter, President Macron has a handful of options open to him. Firstly, and his clear preference, he could appoint a new PM who would need to retain support from the central bloc and court parties on the Left. A potential candidate for this would be Finance Minister Lombard, given his relations with the Socialists; though, it remains to be seen if the groups can work together and pass meaningful fiscal change. Alternatively, or if this option fails, Macron could call fresh legislative elections. However, polling suggests the fractured political landscape would not change significantly, and this option runs the risk of a strong National Rally (RN) showing, which would leave Macron as President over an RN PM, likely Bardella. Given all of this, the outcome of the confidence vote is likely to be a continuation or extension of the current political uncertainty. As such, the bias for OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread is for further widening, though the fall of Bayrou himself is likely priced at this point. The major catalysts post-vote will be Macron’s next PM candidate and then Fitch on Friday. Currently, Fitch has France at AA-, negative. Note, while Macron has made clear he has no intention of resigning ahead of his term ending around April 2027, further failed PM appointments and new legislative elections will increase the pressure on him to do so, and any movement towards an early exit would undoubtedly push spreads significantly wider.UN General Assembly (Tue):At the 80th UN General Assembly on 9th September, Iran will face heightened diplomatic scrutiny amid renewed tensions over its nuclear programme. In late August, the UK, France, and Germany (E3) initiated the “snapback” mechanism to reinstate all UN sanctions within 30 days, citing Iran’s non-compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal and IAEA access restrictions. Tehran has called the move “illegal and unjustified,” while signalling a conditional willingness to resume “fair and balanced” talks—provided the West shows good faith. On July 21st, A senior Iranian lawmaker warned that Tehran could halt its regional maritime security cooperation, including in the Strait of Hormuz, if European powers move to reimpose UN sanctions through the so-called snapback mechanism. On the Israel-Palestine situation, several countries have signalled their intention to recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly. This momentum, which includes prominent Western nations, is a response to the ongoing conflict in Gaza and aims to pressure Israel to commit to a peace process and de-escalate the humanitarian crisis. It is important to remember that it does not grant Palestine full UN membership. That would require approval from the Security Council, where the US has previously used its veto power to block the measure.Apple Event (Tue): Apple’s latest iPhone event is on Tuesday, September 9th, with JPMorgan noting that expectations have historically been for limited surprises from the fall iPhone launch event. Regarding Apple itself, expectations around the big-tech behemoth have been limited recently as it continues to seemingly fall behind in the AI race, with Meta continuing to nick some of its top AI talent. Highlighting the underwhelming expectations surrounding Apple this year, only Tesla in the mag-7 is performing worse, with Apple down 4.3% YTD. Back to the iPhone launch event, Morgan Stanley expects them to modestly hike iPhone 17 prices, its first hike since 2017. The iPhone 17 Air will debut with a thinner design, C1 modem, and a USD 100 premium over the iPhone 16 Plus, while the Pro will start at USD 1,099 for 256GB as lower-storage options are dropped. A new 1TB Air will launch at USD 1,399. Morgan Stanley sees the changes boosting average selling prices 5% in FY26, well above consensus, and does not expect demand to be impacted. MS adds that the event will also unveil new Apple Watches and AirPods, though no major Apple Intelligence updates are anticipated, which is something investors are closely watching. In relation to the opportunity for surprises from the event, JPM sees two key aspects that could set up for upsides through the next FY, including: 1) The launch of iPhone Air could appeal to a broader than anticipated consumer demographic. 2) Pricing for iPhone Air as well as the rest of the lineup; JPM believes pricing will play a particularly strong role in demand in the China market, where smartphones priced under CNY 6,000 (~ USD 840) qualify for a 15% discount. Finally, while expectations for iPhone Air volumes have diminished in recent months with the feedback from the supply chain that Apple is largely planning for ~10-15mln units in H2, but JPM adds there remains room for surprises from better consumer reception.BLS Prelim Benchmark Revisions (Tue): The BLS will release the preliminary 2025 benchmark revisions to the establishment survey at 10:00EDT/15:00BST on September 9th, 2025. The final revisions will follow in February 2026, alongside the January employment situation report. Each year, establishment survey estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the month of March, derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. Bank of America notes that the preliminary estimate is based on QCEW data covering April 2024–March 2025. Importantly, the September release will provide only the implied revision to the March 2025 level of payrolls, with no historical data yet updated. The desk expects a downward revision of 500k to 1mln, implying that payrolls as of March 2025 may have been overstated by 40k–85k per month on average over the April 2024–March 2025 period. BofA also highlights that revisions for April–December 2025, which matter most for the Fed, will only be available with the final benchmark in February 2026. For context, the March 2024 nonfarm employment level was ultimately revised down by –598k in the final benchmark, compared with a preliminary estimate of –818k.Chinese Inflation (Wed): There are currently no forecasts for the upcoming Chinese inflation report. July’s CPI registered flat year-on-year, slightly better than the –0.1% drop in June, while core inflation (excluding food and fuel) rose to 0.8%, its highest in 17 months. Analysts suggest structural headwinds, such as the prolonged property downturn and subdued consumer confidence, are restraining any meaningful inflation rebound. While authorities have stepped up targeted stimulus, there is a view among desks that inflationary momentum is likely to stay muted, with risks tilted towards persistent disinflation through year-end. Analysts at ING suggest “August inflation data, to be released on Wednesday, could show price pressures dipped back into negative territory at around -0.1% YoY after coming in at zero in July.”Norwegian CPI (Wed): There is currently no newswire consensus for the upcoming August inflation report, but taking a look at SEB's predictions, the bank sees CPI-ATE to remain stable at 3.1%, citing higher food prices. As a reminder, the last inflation report mostly printed just above expectations; CPI-ATE Y/Y came in at 3.1% (exp. 3%) but in line with Norges Bank’s own forecast. As such, Norges Bank opted to keep its rates steady at 4.25%, and highlighted that it will likely be appropriate to continue with a cautious normalisation of the policy rate ahead. Nonetheless, the Bank remained cautious, suggesting that if the rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. Into the next meeting, should the August report continue to show inflation moderating, then Norges Bank may opt to cut rates by 25bps in September; As it stands, SEB, ING and GS all see Norges Bank delivering a quarter-point reduction at that meeting.ECB Announcement (Thu): 66/69 of those surveyed by Reuters expect the ECB to hold the Deposit Rate at 2.0% with markets assigning a 99% chance of such an outcome. As a reminder, the prior meeting saw the ECB stand pat on rates with President Lagarde reiterating that policy remains in a good place, suggesting that policymakers are not in a rush to adjust policy. Since July’s confab, the EU and US have formalised their trade agreement, which will see most EU goods subject to a 15% tariff vs. the initially threatened 30% level. On the data slate, Q2 growth was resilient in the face of trade tensions. More timely survey data from S&P Global saw the composite PMI metric move further into expansionary territory with the pace of expansion ticking up to a one-year high. On the inflation front, August Y/Y HICP rose to 2.1% from 2.0% and the super-core metric held steady at 2.3%. As such, there is little cause for policymakers to loosen policy at this meeting. Moving forward, there is clearly a split of views on the Governing Council, with the doves on the board, such as Finland’s Rehn, flagging the likelihood of greater downside risks to inflation. However, the hawks on the GC, such as Germany’s Schnabel, are of the view that rates are already mildly accommodative, and do not see a reason for a further rate cut, adding that global rate hikes may come earlier than people think. Market pricing sees a roughly 50% chance of a rate cut by March next year. Given the lack of fireworks expected within the policy statement, markets may be guided more by the accompanying macro projections, with focus on the 2026 inflation forecast, which is currently expected to come in materially below the Bank’s 2% target at 1.6%. On the projections, consensus looks for an upgrade to the 2026 inflation view to 1.9% with growth to be held at 1.1%. During the press conference, President Lagarde will likely be asked about any potential backstops for French debt depending on the outcome of Monday’s confidence vote. The Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) is the main tool at the ECB’s disposal. However, deployment appears to be some way off yet, absent a material rise in spreads.CBRT Announcement (THU): The CBRT is expected to lower rates by 200bps at its September meeting, according to analysts at both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. This follows on from a hotter-than-expected inflation report in August, which saw the headline M/M rise 2.04% (exp. 1.79%); Y/Y printed at 32.95% (exp. 32.60%) – nonetheless, metrics did cool from the prior. Inflation aside, GDP metrics for Q2 were resilient, and continued TRY depreciation will further complicate things at the Bank. On the latter, Turkish assets were slapped after a court in Istanbul ruled to remove local officials of the Republican People’s Party, which is the main opposition party to the current government. Bloomberg economist Baziki said that given the weakening TRY and rising energy costs, risks to inflation are “tilted to the upside”. Analysts at JPMorgan echo this. As such, the bank sees the CBRT cutting rates by 200bps at the September meeting (prev. saw 300bps cut); JPM then see a further 200bps reduction in both October and November, taking the policy rate down to 37% by year-end (prev. saw 36%). Analysts conclude that the policy rate will be kept above headline CPI to “prevent dollarisation among Turkish residents”. GS writes that "With Q2 GDP growth far surpassing expectations— despite weaker domestic demand—and August inflation coming in higher than forecast", they see a smaller cut than that delivered at the prior meeting.US CPI (Thu): The consensus expects US headline CPI to rise by +0.3% M/M in August (prev. +0.2%), while the core rate is also seen rising by +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.3%); analysts think the data will be driven by higher goods prices. Analysts will be watching the data for signs of any further tariff pass-through; Barclays expects core goods prices to entirely drive the upside acceleration, stating that "a widespread boost to core goods prices has not been borne out in the data as of yet, but there are clear signs of upward price pressures across categories," and the bank looks for this to become more evident in coming months as firms increase imports amid falling inventories. In terms of the policy implications, Barclays is in line with market pricing, expecting the Fed to lower rates by 25bps at its September 17th confab, particularly after Fed Chair Powell's dovish pivot at Jackson Hole in July. The CPI data and the August jobs data will be used to refine expectations. The August NFP report ultimately was soft, falling to 22k from an upwardly revised 79k, well below the 75k forecast and even beneath the lowest breakeven estimate members at the Fed have provided (Musalem suggested it is between 30-80k). Including revisions, three of the last four months have been below the breakeven rate, with the June print falling into negative territory. The unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2% (in line with expectations). The report has cemented expectations for a 25bps rate cut, with money markets fully pricing in such a move. Barclays wrote before the jobs report that "absent firm employment numbers, an acceleration in core inflation alone would likely not make the bar for a hold".UK GDP (Fri): Expectations are for M/M GDP growth in July of 0.1% vs. the June print of 0.4%, leaving the Q2 Q/Q outturn at 0.3% vs. the 0.7% pace seen in Q1. At the time, ING judged that when you dig through the data, it wasn’t as impressive as it first appeared, noting that “much of the growth was generated by government consumption, which the ONS puts down to a greater number of vaccinations, something that isn’t indicative of underlying economic performance”. ING added that “it’s worth not reading too much into these figures – and the Bank of England certainly isn’t doing that”. For the upcoming report, Investec expects momentum to have carried through into July, but at a lesser rate. The desk adds that the service sector is likely to have been bolstered by sunny weather and the Oasis tour, although the impact of the doctors' strike could act as an offsetting force. Elsewhere, the desk is optimistic on manufacturing output, which is the dominant input into industrial production. Investec notes that a consensus outcome would “set the stage for a fairly solid Q3 for GDP growth”. The desk has pencilled in a 0.4% Q/Q forecast. From a policy perspective, such an outcome would provide some respite for the Treasury and more reason for caution on the MPC.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at investinglive.com.

It's a bull market in many markets at the moment but certainly not in oil, which is likely to get more bad news on Sunday.Initial reports about Saudi Arabia pushing for a further production hike circulated on Friday and lowered crude by $1.51 but it's likely to fall even more if/when the hike is delivered.Reuters reports that Eight OPEC+ countries will likely hike output but probably less than in October, as summer driving season ends. The group has added 2.5 mbpd this year in a steady stream quota jumps since April, likely under pressure from the Trump administration.The risk is that sub-$60 oil prices cripple new drilling in the US shale industry. There are already signs of that as the US drilling rig count has plunged even further this year. Since US crude is such a short-cycle and decline rates so high, that's an ominous sign for 2026 US production and will very likely mean a backfire of the 'drill, baby, drill' Trump admin talking point.OPEC is still holding back 1.65 mbpd as part of regular production curbs and not the 'voluntary' ones they finished unwinding with last month's announcement."Talks are focusing on unwinding that whole cut in gradual monthly increments," two sources quoted by Reuters said. They differed on the volume of crude that could return from 135K bpd to 350K bpd.In the macro picture, the drop in oil prices is a good thing for short-term inflation and should help to counteract tariff price pressures but below $60 (and likely even $70) is like holding a balloon underwater.Update: Two Reuters sources now say that OPEC+ has agreed in principle to at least 135k bpd. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

August US non-farm payrolls +22K vs +75K expectedCanada August employment change -65.5K vs +10.0K expectedFed's Goolsbee: We're open to criticism on improving Fed decision makingTimiraos: Soft jobs report will make it easier for Fed to agree on 25 bps cutSaudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to speed up next oil production boostUS Lutnick: US economic data will get better and better after staff changesMarkets:Gold up $41 to $3586 -- fresh record highWTI crude oil down $1.49 to $61.99US 10-year yields down 10.2 bps to 4.07%S&P 500 down 20 points to 6481CHF leads, CAD lagsIt was a tough day on the North American jobs front as both the US and (especially) Canada disappointed, solidifying the case for rate cuts later this month. Both currencies sank significantly on the data but not severely with the loonie slightly underperforming the dollar on the day. The Market is now pricing in 47 bps in Canadian easing in the year ahead and 131 bps in the US. Most notably, Fed pricing suggests a 90% chance of a cut at each of the three remaining meetings this year and a slight chance of 50 bps this month.Naturally, gold loved the dovish shift and continued higher to a fresh record. The price action in equities was less straight-forward as the market initially cheered the possibility of more rate cuts only to turn lower on fears of a recession. Some late equity bids (once again) cushioned the blow and the main US indexes finished higher on the week. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There was something of a random walk down Wall Street today but it ended in the red-ink districts. The jobs report was poor and initially the market took that as good news due to more rate cuts being priced in. Later, that sentiment reversed and recession fears hit, leading to a sizeable swing to the downside. Late in the day though, the bidders showed up as they have been all week and lifted the S&P 500 to only a moderate loss.The rate-sensitive Russell 2000 finished higher on a lift from financials while the Nasdaq was flat.Closing changes on the day:S&P 500 -0.36%Nasdaq Comp flat Russell 2000 +0.45%DJIA -0.5%Toronto TSX Comp +0.45%On the week:S&P 500 +0.3%Nasdaq Comp +1.4%Russell 2000 +1.0%DJIA -0.3%Toronto TSX Comp +1.7% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There are some modest bids that have crept in over the past hour but the S&P 500 is still down 26 points, or 0.4%. All week long there have been strong bids into the close so let's see if we can get a repeat. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.