RBC economist Claire Fan is out with a review of today's soft Canadian jobs report. Jobs fell by 66K after a 41K decline in July in what's clearly a worsening picture.She notes that the weakness mirrors a softening picture in the US.Fan highlights that unemployment at 7.1% is the highest in a decade outside of the pandemic but also notes some positive signs."Most of the job losses were part-time, actual hours worked edged up 0.1%, and weakness remained relatively concentrated in the trade exposed sectors of the economy– employment in manufacturing, transport and warehousing together shrank by 42k in August," Fan wrote.The loonie is the lagging G10 currency today, trailing even the US dollar. It trades at 1.3846."The negative job market report today increases the odds that the BoC could see fit to cut interest rates further," Fan writes. Pricing currently shows a 92% chance of a cut, which she says could be solidified by a benign CPI report the day before the Sept 16 decision.Fan adds:Another softer inflation print could raise odds for additional easing relative to our current base case that assumes the BoC has already reached the end of the cycle. Going forward, condition in trade exposed sectors will likely continue to worsen but we don't expect that will spread and cause a sharp, broad-based contraction. For that, we point to 1) relatively low average tariff rate on Canada among major U.S. trade partners thanks to CUSMA exemptions and 2) healthy domestic consumer spending trends as reasons why we expect resilience in other sectors will help keep a floor under broader economic conditions. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Some comments on TV:We're open to criticism but totally opposed to taking away independence Anyone who joins the FOMC will take the job seriously This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

You can put that gold chart in the technical analysis text book, at least so far.Gold has been in a long-term bull market, almost a parabolic one from $2000 post-pandemic. After spiking to a record $3500 in April, it took a break and consolidated for five months. Now that it's clear the Fed is going to aggressively ease and the US is embracing fiscal irresponsibility, it's breaking out again.The simple measured target of this move (1x the consolidation range) that gets you to $4000, which is something I highlighted at the start of the week as it began to break out. What we've seen so far is strong confirmation and the one-day dip yesterday opened a small window to chase the move.I think the fundamentals are even more compelling from here. The global order around trade is breaking down and the images of Chinese Indian and Russian leaders holding hands this week points to big geopolitical shifts to come. Seasonally, it's not a great time for gold but that rapidly turns in November so it might be best to sweat it out even if this is a false breakout (or wait for a retest of the range).In any case, I've been banging the drum since $2000 and I'm finding it tough to find any reason to change gears now. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It was a soggy start for European stocks this month as most indexes sagged this month. The DAX tried to recover mid-week but never made it and today's selling put it near the lows of the week. Closing changes on the day:Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.85%France CAC -0.4%UK FTSE 100 -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.6%Italy's FTSE MIB -0.9Closing changes on the week:Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -1.3%France CAC +0.1%UK FTSE 100 +0.2%Spain IBEX -0.7%Italy's FTSE MIB -1.4% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The euro has been one of the beneficiaries of a weakening US dollar following another soft non-farm payrolls report. It's up 96 pips to 1.1745 and touched as high as 1.1759. That's a fresh high since July 27 and looks like a breakout from the recent period of consolidation, particularly if it can close above the August highs.If it can sustain some momentum it will have challenges at 1.1789 (July high) and 1.1830 (June high) before it can find some clear air but that dip down to 1.14 is now looking something like an inverted head and shoulders that targets +1.20.On the fundamental side, the ECB is set to meet this month and hold rates. European economic data has also been surprising to the upside while US data has surprised to the downside. The market could soon focus on the contrasting monetary policy outlooks and -- the optimists at least -- may believe that Europe is recovering from the cycle bottom. And to be fair, what's happening in Italy is impressive with unemployment at generational lows. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The stock market is struggling to decide on whether it likes rate cuts enough to ignore a weakening economy.I highlighted earlier that there are 135 bps in cuts priced in over the next year and 155 bps through 2026. That gets rates below 3% and feels like 'peak Fed pricing' or something close. The problem is that removes the 'fed put' beyond that and just leaves you with a softening economy. In addition, there are big risks around tariff inflation that are still marinating that cold result in a nightmare scenario of stagflation.So the earlier enthusiasm about a more-dovish Fed path is quickly being met by economic and inflation worries. The S&P 500 has turned a 25 point gain into a similar-sized loss.I also worry that NVDA is a bit of a canary in the AI-coal mine trade and that chart isn't looking pretty after today's 3.8% today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

All aboard the rate-cut train.A soft US jobs report wasn't bad enough to prompt recessions fears and instead the market is cheering on a more-dovish rate path for the Fed. There is now 134 bps in easing priced in, which gets the Fed close to 3%. What I worry is that we're close to maximum easing already priced in, which doesn't leave much of a Fed put from here if the data continues to worsen.The S&P 500 is up 22 points or 0.35% to 6525, which is a record high. The Russell 2000 likes it even better as it climbs 1.3%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

For most traders, achieving consistent gains is the ultimate goal of their journey. However, as many success stories show, the only way to get there is to engage in continuous learning and improvement—and this is easier said than done. How should you approach self-growth in trading? In this article, Octa, a regulated and trusted broker since 2011, explains the ins and outs of post-trade analysis, the cornerstone of any successful trading journey.What is post-trade analysisEvery trader wants to know how to navigate the financial markets with ease and precision. Unfortunately, there is no magic pill that can help you achieve that in a couple of days. Any winning off-the-shelf strategy promoted by an internet trading guru will likely fail over a longer time frame, since the market environment is constantly changing. What worked like a charm a month ago can lead to ruin today.To have a better chance at success, instead of mindlessly copying others, you must develop an understanding of the markets and use it to adjust your strategies. The most realistic way to achieve this understanding is to learn from your experience, in particular, by analysing your own trading sessions. This is where post-trade analysis comes in. In trading, post-trade analysis lies at the core of incremental learning and skill development. It is the process of looking back at your decisions, timing, and outcomes. Done regularly, it turns every trade—whether it ended in profit or loss—into a lesson for the future.Post-trade analysis: the basicsWhen performing post-trade analysis, you must first write down the basic details: the instrument you traded, entry and exit points, and the outcome. Many traders skip this simple step and rely on their memory. However, the fact is that our minds often save events in a distorted way, downplaying mistakes and exaggerating successes. To maintain objectivity, you must log your trades in a trading journal, whether it's a notebook, spreadsheet, or a digital app.The second step is to determine the reasons for the trade. Did you follow your setup, or did you rush your trades because the market looked too enticing? Did you enter based on a clear plan, or were you reacting emotionally to a sudden price move? When writing these reasons down, you must be brutally honest with yourself—any half-truth can hinder your progress. After a while, your journal entries will start coming together and forming patterns, both positive and negative.Timing, risks, emotionsAfter reasons comes timing. For example, you might have entered too early and lost your cool before the market turned your way. On the other hand, you might have entered too late, driven by the fear of missing out and following the trend after the best part of the move was already gone. Your exit might have been based on logic or on fear. Timing analysis helps you fine-tune your confidence and sense of the market, two instrumental qualities of a successful trader.Another essential point is risk management. Did your stop-loss orders follow the logic of your setup? Do you adjust your stop orders when the market moves against you? After doing this part of the analysis, many traders discover that their losses come not from a weak strategy, but from ignoring the basic safety rules.Your emotional state should also be studied during the analysis. Did you let your emotions run away with you? Was your decision influenced by the previous wins or losses? Self-awareness is just as important as technical skill. In fact, many traders improve their results not by learning new strategies, but by learning to control themselves.OctaVision: Octa broker's post-trade analysis engineTo help you take your post-trade analysis a step further, Octa broker offers a powerful AI-driven tool, OctaVision. This intuitive analytical engine is embedded into Octa's proprietary trading platform, OctaTrader. OctaVision is available within the Octa app as an integral part of Octa's trading ecosystem. Created as a balanced combination of human expertise and AI's data-processing prowess, OctaVision allows you to analyse an individual closed order or a whole trading session in bulk. While the tool uses a built-in AI engine to create data-driven, unbiased recommendations, it is also anchored in extensive market knowledge of Octa's expert traders who oversaw the development and content creation process, double-checking each outcome against their hands-on experience.As a detailed and personalised source of trading feedback, OctaVision is indispensable as an objective, impersonal mentor who helps you hone your trading skills step by step. OctaVision uses plain language to point out strengths and weaknesses in your decisions, substantiating the assessment with your statistics while providing personalised, actionable advice. ConclusionThe goal of post-trade analysis is to spot patterns in your sessions. By getting rid of the negatives and reinforcing the positives, you will eventually step up your trading and get closer to consistent positive outcomes. Octa's trading ecosystem and its AI-driven analytical engine, OctaVision, empower traders every step of the way, taking post-trade analysis to a completely new level. OctaVision gives you a rundown of each trade with actionable, data-based insights that you can use to make your next session better.Disclaimer: This article does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Octa does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences.About OctaOcta is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 61 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities.Since its foundation, Octa has won more than 100 awards, including the 'Most Reliable Broker Global 2024' award from Global Forex Awards and the 'Best Mobile Trading Platform 2024' award from Global Brand Magazine. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos is out with a quick take on the jobs report. He doesn't get too much into the details but says: A sharp slowdown in job growth this summer likely seals the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its meeting in two weeks.Notable is what he doesn't say, which is that a 50 basis point cut is on the table. The market has bumped up 50 bps pricing to 14% now.Timiraos also write that the jobs report "further muddies the debate over the pace of cuts after [September]. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The best look at how the market is repricing the Fed curve is in two-year yields and it's a clear picture here. They're down 10 basis points today to the lowest since the Liberation Day spike. Beyond that you need to go all the way back to 2022 for lower yields.At that time, the market wasn't sure whether Trump's tariffs would be bad for growth or spike inflation (or both). Now we're getting indications that the growth and jobs picture is getting hit first, which is going to prompt deep rate cuts from the Fed. For the year ahead, we're now pricing in 136 bps in easing, which would get Fed funds close to 3%.The nightmare scenario is that the inflation from tariffs comes later and the Fed can't cut. That's going to make future inflation readings critical. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil prices are dropping after a report from Bloomberg saying that Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to boost output at the September meeting. Given that and softening US economic data and it's a bad mix for oil, which could have a 5-handle soon. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Non-Farm Payrolls +22K vs +75K expectedPrivate Payrolls +38K vs +75K expected. Prior 83kManufacturing Payrolls: -12K vs -5K expected. Prior -11k.Government Payrolls -16K vs -10K priorUnemployment Rate 4.3% vs 4.3% expected. Prior 4.2%Average Earnings MoM +0.3% vs +0.3% expected. Prior 0.3%Average Earnings YoY +3.7% vs +3.7% expected. Prior 3.9%Average Workweek Hours 34.2K vs 34.3 expected Prior 34.3Labor Force Participation Rate 62.2% vs 62.3% priorU6 Underemployment 8.1% vs 7.7% priorTwo-month net revision -22KThe US dollar is down across the board on this with USD/JPY down a half-cent. Gold is near a new record as the market prices in more Fed rate cuts on this.The market is now fully priced for a September rate cut with about a 3% chance of a 50 bps cut. The larger action is further out the curve where the October meeting is now up to 80% for a cut from about 60% beforehand. For the year ahead, there is 130 bps of easing priced in.Looking at that chart, there is a very clear step down in May which isn't a big coincidence as it was the first month after Liberation Day.The three-month average of jobs creation is just 29K. The stock market is teetering between taking this as a sign that the economy is slow but not terrible versus fear that a recession is coming.I was worried we would see some manipulation in the data after the BLS head was fired but it's hard to see that in today's number. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -40.8KUnemployment rate 7.1% vs 7.0% priorFull time jobs -6.0KPart time jobs -59.7KParticipation rate 65.1%Avg hourly wages for permanent workers +3.6%This is the worst reading since January 2022. We're now pricing in a 90% chance of a BOC cut in September from 75% beforehand. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics says it is experiencing “technical difficulties” ahead of the August employment report. The website says: “Sorry, we are currently experiencing technical difficulties. All BLS data retrieval tools will be available as soon as we’ve resolved the problem.”It's not clear this will cause a delay but it could be difficult to find all the data in the report. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Happy Friday.Given the firing of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics chief is Erika McEntarfer last month, analyzing this report is a whole different game. I tend to think that there isn't going to be a wholesale manipulation, at least not right away but if we get a +250K reading and falling unemployment will the market believe it?In any case, the consensus is +75K with unemployment ticking up to 4.3% from 4.2%. Here was last month's data. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

On tariffs ruling: Trump has all sorts of other authorities.On tariffs: These big deals are going to stay.Regarding the headline, it could keep those speculating on a soft NFP report today in charge. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Not sure if that's going to affect the NFP release...The BLS said the problem is with data retrieval tools. Maybe switching off and back on will work lol This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?Today's NFP setup is diametrically opposite to the one we had in AugustEurozone Q2 final GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% q/q expectedItaly July retail sales +0.0% vs +0.4% expectedSwitzerland consumer confidence -39.9 vs -36.5 expectedFrance July trade balance -€5.56 billion vs -€6.1 billion expectedPutin on Ukraine: There are legal obstacles in Ukraine for potential deal on territoriesGermany July industrial orders -2.9% vs +0.5% m/m expectedUK July retail sales +0.6% vs +0.2% m/m expectedJapan July leading economic index 105.9 vs 105.9 expectedWhat are the main events for today?It's been a pretty boring session in terms of newsflow. On the data side, the highlights were the UK retail sales report and the Eurozone final Q2 GDP. The UK data beat expectations, while the Eurozone data came in line with the forecast. The reaction though was muted given that the attention was on the US NFP report.On the markets side, we basically extended the dovish positioning into the NFP that started yesterday after all the US data releases. The market looks confident that we will get another cool report. Interestingly, to a question on the NFP report, Trump yesterday told reporters: “They come out tomorrow, but the real numbers that I’m talking about are going to be whatever it is, but will be in a year from now on". People speculated again that the numbers might be lacklustre. This might be another reason for the dovish moves we've seen throughout the session.Now we just wait for the US and Canadian jobs data before wrapping up the week. Have a nice weekend all! This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Anotherimportant input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.Non-Farm Payrolls0K-144K range of estimates60K-100K range most clustered75K consensusUnemployment Rate4.4% (1%)4.3% (59%) - consensus4.2% (39%) 4.1% (1%)Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y3.9% (7%) 3.8% (31%) 3.7% (59%) - consensus3.4% (3%)Average Hourly Earnings M/M0.4% (5%)0.3% (91%) - consensus0.2% (4%)Average Weekly Hours 34.4 (3%)34.3 (83%) - consensus34.2 (14%)Overall, expectations are dovish for this report and the positioning is diametrically opposite to the one we had in August. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

We have finally made it to the main event of the month: the NFP report. At this point, the data might not matter much for the September rate cut as the Fed has cornered itself into it by overreacting to the last soft NFP report. Nonetheless, today's data will be important for the future outlook and expectations on interest rates. Yesterday's US data was overall good, but definitely not good enough to prompt the market to revaluate the current easing expectations. But here's the thing, the markets positioning is diametrically opposite to the one we had in August...Back then, the positioning into the NFP was very hawkish. In fact, we had strong US data in July and then a slightly more hawkish than expected FOMC decision. The market pricing showed just 35 bps of easing by year-end and much less than 50% probability for a cut in September. On the markets side, the US dollar got strong bids into the NFP, while stocks, bonds and gold were offered across the board. Then we got that soft NFP report and big negative revisions for the prior months...The reaction was very aggressive: we erased all the moves into the NFP report and the expectations for rate cuts strenghtened significantly. Moreover, Fed members started to sound more dovish after the report which culminated into Powell's dovish tilt at the Jackson Hole Symposium.In one month, we went from one extreme to the next in terms of expectations...Today, we have a very dovish positioning. In fact, the market is pricing 60 bps of easing by year-end and 98% probability of a rate cut in September. On the markets side, the US dollar is getting offered across the board, while stocks, bonds and gold rallied significantly into the NFP.Markets react in a big way when there is such an extreme positioning and a catalyst changes meaningfully the underlying expectations. The catalyst for today is of course the NFP report.If the data is strong (the stronger, the bigger the reaction), it might not change much for a September cut but it will highly likely trigger a hawkish repricing further down the curve. And given the positioning in the market, we might see big reversals. This is what makes today's NFP report such a huge event.Data in line with expectations would be the most boring outcome. From a trading perspective, it wouldn't offer much but it should keep the established trends going.On the other hand, another weaker than expected report could see the markets pricing a third rate cut by year-end or even a 50 bps cut in September. This would also trigger notable moves in the markets, but not as extreme as the ones in case we get strong data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.