more to come- Full statement etc. here. Summery:RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25% amid Middle East-driven shock Inflation set to rise sharply, peaking around 4.2% near term Growth outlook weakens as energy costs hit demand Policy focused on medium-term inflation and expectations Financial conditions already tightening domestically Risks skewed to stagflation: higher inflation, weaker growth RBNZ signals readiness to hike if inflation persistsIn brief:Policy decision and contextThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Committee agreed to hold the Official Cash Rate at 2.25%, as escalating geopolitical developments have materially shifted the economic outlook. Since the February Monetary Policy Statement, the conflict in the Middle East has significantly altered the balance of risks, with policymakers now facing a more complex trade-off: near-term inflation is expected to rise sharply, while economic activity is set to weaken. The Committee emphasised it remains vigilant to broader inflation pressures and stands ready to act if needed to ensure inflation returns to target over the medium term.Global backdrop: supply shock and financial volatilityThe conflict has triggered a major global supply shock, disrupting energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and pushing up oil and refined product prices. These developments are feeding through into global supply chains, lifting inflation while weighing on growth across many economies.Financial markets have reacted with heightened volatility. Equity markets have declined in several regions, bond yields have risen, and the US dollar has strengthened, reflecting expectations of weaker global growth and tighter financial conditions.Despite these pressures, most major central banks have so far opted to keep policy rates unchanged, mirroring the uncertainty surrounding the duration and impact of the shock.Global inflation and growth outlookGlobal inflation, which had been trending lower, is now expected to reaccelerate in the near term due to higher energy costs, while growth momentum weakens. The impact is particularly acute for energy-importing economies, including many of New Zealand’s key trading partners in Asia.However, outcomes are expected to vary across countries depending on starting conditions, fiscal responses, and economic resilience, suggesting divergent monetary policy paths ahead.Domestic inflation outlookIn New Zealand, inflation is already above target and set to rise further. Annual CPI stood at 3.1% in Q4 2025, and the RBNZ now expects inflation to increase to around 3.0% in Q1 2026 and 4.2% in Q2, driven largely by higher fuel costs and spillovers into transport, food and other energy-sensitive components. The outlook remains highly uncertain, hinging on the evolution of the conflict and the persistence of supply disruptions. While futures markets imply some easing in oil prices later this year, the Committee sees risks skewed to higher prices.Domestic economic activityEconomic growth was already fragile prior to the shock, with GDP rising just 0.2% in Q4 2025. Although early indicators suggested a modest recovery, the conflict is now expected to dampen activity in the near term.Higher fuel costs are eroding household purchasing power and compressing business margins, while uncertainty is weighing on investment decisions. Recent data and business feedback indicate slowing activity and declining confidence, with some firms already passing on higher costs through surcharges, while others struggle to do so.Inflation dynamics and policy focusThe Committee reiterated that its focus remains firmly on medium-term inflation. The key issue is whether higher energy costs feed into broader wage- and price-setting behaviour, potentially leading to persistent inflation.Short-term inflation expectations are rising, but the RBNZ expects second-round effects to be limited by weak demand and spare capacity in the economy. This contrasts with 2022, when strong demand amplified inflation pressures following earlier global shocks.Maintaining anchored inflation expectations near 2% is critical. If core inflation or wage growth accelerates materially, the Bank signalled it would respond decisively.Financial conditionsDomestic financial conditions have already tightened since February. Wholesale interest rates have risen, mortgage rates have increased modestly, and the New Zealand dollar has weakened, adding to imported inflation pressures while providing some support to exporters.Liquidity conditions in local markets have also contributed to upward pressure on yields, reinforcing the tightening impulse.Risk assessmentThe Committee highlighted significant uncertainty and a wide range of possible outcomes.On the inflation side, risks include more persistent supply disruptions and a broader shift in pricing behaviour, which could lift core inflation and inflation expectations.On the growth side, risks include a sharper downturn in household spending, rising unemployment, and constrained business activity, particularly if access to key inputs such as fuel or fertiliser is disrupted.The balance of risks is asymmetric, with the potential for both higher inflation and weaker growth—effectively a stagflationary mix.Policy outlook and forward guidanceThe Committee debated the timing and magnitude of any future policy response. A pre-emptive tightening could help anchor expectations and limit second-round effects, potentially reducing the need for more aggressive hikes later.However, acting too early risks exacerbating the downturn in activity and employment, particularly if the inflation shock proves temporary.Ultimately, the Committee judged that holding the OCR steady best balances these competing risks at this stage. It will continue to monitor incoming data closely and stands ready to act decisively if inflation expectations begin to drift. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Korea set to hold on April 10 as oil shock clouds inflation and growth outlook.Summary:Bank of Korea expected to hold rates at 2.50% on April 10 Reuters poll shows unanimous no-change expectation Rates seen on hold through 2026 amid uncertainty Oil prices surge over 50%, lifting inflation risks Korea highly exposed to energy imports from Gulf Inflation trending above target, forecasts revised higher Growth outlook clouded by energy shock and weaker wonThe Bank of Korea is widely expected to keep its base rate unchanged at 2.50% at its April 10 policy meeting, as policymakers grapple with heightened uncertainty stemming from the Iran war and its impact on inflation and growth.A Reuters poll of 31 economists showed unanimous expectations for no change at the upcoming decision, with the policy rate also seen remaining on hold through the rest of 2026. The outlook reflects a cautious stance from the central bank as it assesses the economic fallout from surging energy prices and broader geopolitical instability.Since the escalation of the conflict, oil prices have risen sharply—by more than 50%—posing a significant challenge for South Korea, which is heavily reliant on energy imports, with roughly 70% sourced from the Gulf region. This leaves the economy particularly exposed to sustained energy price shocks, with implications for both inflation and domestic demand.Recent inflation data has already shown some upward pressure. Consumer prices rose 2.2% year-on-year in March, slightly above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target, while forecasts now point to inflation averaging around 2.4% in 2026—higher than earlier projections. The near-term outlook suggests inflation could accelerate further, with expectations for 2.6% this quarter.At the same time, growth risks are building. The central bank had previously upgraded its 2026 growth forecast to 2.0%, but that was based on significantly lower oil price assumptions. With energy costs now elevated and the Korean won weakening—down around 4% since the conflict began—there is increasing concern that imported inflation could rise while economic activity softens.The Bank of Korea is therefore expected to emphasise a balanced and flexible policy approach. Policymakers are likely to signal that they are monitoring both downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation, rather than committing to a clear tightening or easing path. Updated forecasts are not expected at this meeting, but forward guidance may provide clues on how the Bank is reassessing the outlook.For now, the consensus view is that the central bank will remain on hold, waiting for greater clarity on how persistent the energy-driven inflation shock proves to be. However, the risks appear skewed, with a prolonged conflict potentially forcing policymakers to confront a more difficult trade-off between stabilising prices and supporting growth. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. The rate today at 6.8680 is the strongest for CNY since 17 April 2023.PBOC injects 500mn yuan via 78pday reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Israel’s reluctance casts doubt on ceasefire durability despite US-Iran progress.Summary:Israel signals reluctance to fully embrace US-Iran ceasefire, according to CNN Will follow US lead but still has additional military targets Iran demands include limits on Israeli operations against proxies Ceasefire described as tactical, not a final peace deal Talks to continue in Islamabad within tight timeline Historical precedent suggests ceasefires may not hold Israel seen as key swing factor in whether truce enduresIsraeli officials are signalling unease with the newly announced ceasefire between the United States and Iran, raising fresh doubts over whether the fragile truce will hold despite apparent diplomatic progress.According to sources cited in a CNN report , Israel is expected to follow Washington’s lead and adhere to the ceasefire, but is doing so reluctantly. Officials reportedly remain concerned that the agreement could constrain ongoing military operations, particularly as Israel still has additional targets it intends to pursue.This hesitation introduces a critical fault line in the ceasefire framework. While the agreement is being presented as a “double-sided” pause in hostilities, Israeli reluctance highlights the risk that alignment between key actors may be incomplete. Historically, similar ceasefires in conflict zones such as Gaza and Ukraine have proven difficult to sustain, often breaking down amid competing strategic objectives and mistrust between parties.A central sticking point appears to be Iran’s demands around regional dynamics, particularly calls for an end to Israeli operations against groups such as Hezbollah and other Iran-aligned actors. These provisions strike at the core of Israel’s security strategy, raising questions over whether it would fully commit to restrictions that limit its operational freedom.At the same time, the ceasefire is explicitly described as a tactical pause rather than a definitive peace agreement. Negotiations are expected to continue in Islamabad, with both sides working toward a broader settlement within a compressed timeframe. However, the conditions attached to the deal, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and unresolved disagreements over regional security arrangements, underscore the complexity of the negotiations.There are also broader concerns that the underlying drivers of the conflict remain unresolved. Analysts note that significant damage has already been inflicted on regional energy infrastructure, and that economic and geopolitical tensions remain elevated. In this context, the ceasefire may serve more as a temporary de-escalation than a durable turning point.Ultimately, the key question for markets and policymakers alike is whether Israel’s cautious participation evolves into full compliance—or whether its strategic priorities lead to renewed military action. With multiple parties involved and trust in short supply, the ceasefire’s durability remains highly uncertain, leaving the risk of escalation firmly in play. ----I think there are a number of issues that are going to give wider concerns:removal of sanctionssupport for proxies to be kepyIran to control of Hormuz and charge a $2mn transit feeI can't see those terms being acceptable. ---Trump has already taken aim at CNN for this report. But he would, wouldn't he? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The big news so far today:TRUMP HAS AGREED TO SUSPEND IRAN BOMBING FOR TWO WEEKSIran confirms US talks, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point deal---Meanwhile, other news continues. The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence.---Can't get enough cheeky sneaky oil updates! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The news, ICYMI:TRUMP HAS AGREED TO SUSPEND IRAN BOMBING FOR TWO WEEKSIran confirms US talks, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point dealJoy for now, with difficult negotiations ahead. How long will this tentative ceasefire last? Some are giving it 48 hours. Don't touch that dial! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The big news is, of course:TRUMP HAS AGREED TO SUSPEND IRAN BOMBING FOR TWO WEEKSIran confirms US talks, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point dealThis has taken the bid out of the USD, yen a beneficiary with USD/JPY back under 159.00. Meanwhile, on the data front from Japan ...Summary:Japan real wages +1.9% y/y, strongest in five years Second straight month of real wage growth Nominal wages +3.3% y/y, fastest in seven months Base pay growth strongest in ~34 years Wage growth outpaces inflation, boosting purchasing power Data supports BoJ case for further rate hikes Spring wage deals suggest more upside aheadJapan’s wage data for February delivered a significant upside surprise, with real wages rising at their fastest pace in five years, reinforcing the case for further policy tightening from the Bank of Japan.Government figures showed inflation-adjusted real wages climbed 1.9% year-on-year, accelerating sharply from a revised 0.7% gain in January and marking a second consecutive month of growth. The result represents the strongest increase since 2021 and signals a meaningful improvement in household purchasing power after a prolonged period of real income stagnation.Nominal wage growth also remained robust. Total cash earnings rose 3.3% year-on-year, the fastest pace in seven months, while base salaries—considered a key indicator of sustainable wage momentum—also increased 3.3%, the largest rise in nearly 34 years. For full-time workers, base pay climbed an even stronger 3.7%, underscoring broad-based gains across the labour market. Overtime pay, often viewed as a proxy for corporate activity, matched this pace with a 3.3% increase, while bonus-related special payments rebounded strongly.Importantly, wage growth outpaced inflation, with the consumer price measure used to calculate real wages rising just 1.4% in February, the slowest pace in four years. This reflects a combination of government subsidies and moderating price pressures, even as external risks—particularly energy prices linked to the Iran conflict—continue to cloud the outlook.The data strengthens the argument that Japan is moving closer to achieving a durable wage-price cycle, a key prerequisite for further rate hikes. Notably, the February figures precede the outcome of this year’s spring wage negotiations, which have already delivered pay increases above 5% for a third consecutive year, suggesting further upside to wage growth in coming months.For policymakers, the combination of rising real incomes and sustained nominal wage gains adds to confidence that inflation can be supported domestically, rather than relying on external cost pressures. Markets have increasingly priced in a rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s upcoming April meeting, and the latest data is likely to reinforce those expectations.However, uncertainty remains. While wage dynamics are improving, the broader economic backdrop—including global growth risks and energy-driven inflation volatility—will continue to influence the timing and pace of policy normalisation. Still, the direction of travel is becoming clearer, with Japan’s long-awaited wage recovery now firmly underway. ---Sneaky oil update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Earlier:TRUMP HAS AGREED TO SUSPEND IRAN BOMBING FOR TWO WEEKSTrump ceasefire announcement still to be agreed to by Iran. Markets rejoicing though.---Iran confirms talks with US, but warns ceasefire depends on final deal being reached.Summary:Iran confirms 10-point proposal submitted via Pakistan US-Iran talks set to begin April 10 in Islamabad Negotiations aimed at finalising deal within ~2 weeks Proposal includes Hormuz control, US withdrawal demands Iran stresses talks do not mean end of war Ceasefire remains conditional on agreement details Window for de-escalation open but fragileIran has confirmed it is engaging in negotiations with the United States following the proposed ceasefire, outlining a structured path toward talks while making clear that any end to the war remains conditional and far from guaranteed.According to Iranian state media, the country’s Supreme National Security Council said it had submitted a 10-point proposal to Washington via Pakistan, providing the basis for ongoing negotiations. The talks are set to begin on April 10 in Islamabad, aligning with earlier indications that Pakistan is acting as a key intermediary in the process.Iran signalled that the negotiations could extend beyond the initial timeline if both sides agree, but also emphasised that the objective is to translate what it described as “battlefield achievements” into political outcomes within a maximum timeframe of around two weeks. This aligns broadly with the ceasefire window proposed by Donald Trump, suggesting a coordinated—though still tentative—framework for de-escalation.Details of Iran’s proposal indicate significant demands remain on the table. These include controlled transit through the Strait of Hormuz under coordination with Iranian armed forces, an end to military action against Iran and its regional allies, and the withdrawal of US combat forces from bases across the region. These conditions underscore that, while talks are progressing, the gap between the two sides may still be substantial.Crucially, Iranian officials stressed that entering negotiations does not equate to the end of hostilities. They made clear that any formal conclusion to the war will depend on finalising details in line with the proposed framework, reinforcing the conditional nature of the ceasefire and the risk that fighting could resume if talks stall.Separate reporting from Axios confirmed that the first round of negotiations is scheduled for Friday in Islamabad, further solidifying expectations that the coming days will be critical in determining whether the diplomatic push gains traction.Taken together, the developments point to a narrow but meaningful window for de-escalation. However, the combination of ambitious demands, tight timelines, and persistent mistrust between the parties means the situation remains highly fluid. While markets may initially respond positively to signs of dialogue, the risk of setbacks remains elevated, particularly given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and the broader regional implications. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A regional source tells CNN that a deal between the US and Iran is expected to be closed tonight. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran’s biggest aluminium producer, Iranian Aluminium Company, located in Arak, has been hit. .The city of Arak is highly sensitive, as it is home to the IR-40 heavy water reactor, a key part of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure . IRALCO manufactures aluminium products that can be used in military and nuclear-related applications, including missile casings, drone structures, and centrifuge components. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

RBNZ seen on hold as it navigates oil-driven inflation shock while signalling patience on policy tightening.Due at 0200 GMT / 2200 US Eastern time Summary:RBNZ expected to hold OCR at 2.25% amid energy-driven inflation shock Policymakers likely to look through near-term inflation but watch for persistence Communication to balance avoiding overtightening vs maintaining inflation credibility Domestic slack seen limiting second-round inflation risks No new forecasts, but guidance may hint at higher inflation and weaker growth Internal MPC split likely on inflation persistence and policy path Market pricing for multiple hikes seen as excessive; Westpac expects just oneThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% at its April 8 Monetary Policy Review, according to Westpac, with policymakers opting for caution as they assess the inflation shock stemming from higher global energy prices.The central bank is likely to signal continuity in its policy approach, closely reflecting recent guidance from Governor Breman. That guidance emphasised a willingness to “look through” the immediate, first-round impact of higher oil prices on inflation, while remaining alert to any signs that those price pressures become embedded in wages and broader pricing behaviour. In effect, the Bank is expected to tolerate a temporary spike in headline inflation but stand ready to tighten policy if second-round effects threaten to push inflation persistently above target.The communication challenge for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be to strike a careful balance. On one hand, the Bank will want to avoid triggering an unnecessary tightening in financial conditions by overreacting to what is fundamentally a supply shock. On the other, it must maintain credibility by reinforcing its readiness to act if inflation expectations begin to drift higher over the medium term.Much of the uncertainty centres on the duration and severity of the ongoing Middle East conflict, which is driving the energy shock. A prolonged disruption would likely deepen supply chain damage and sustain upward pressure on prices, increasing the risk of persistent inflation. However, domestic conditions in New Zealand may act as a mitigating factor. The economy is still operating below capacity, and recent GDP data has been soft, suggesting businesses may struggle to fully pass through higher costs without dampening demand—potentially limiting second-round inflation effects.While no updated forecasts are expected at this meeting, the RBNZ may offer early signals about its evolving outlook ahead of the May Monetary Policy Statement. That could include acknowledging stronger near-term inflation and weaker growth prospects. Westpac, for example, expects inflation to peak around 4.1% this year while growth slows to roughly 1.9%, reflecting the drag from higher energy costs and weaker confidence.The meeting will also feature the RBNZ’s first post-decision press conference, part of a broader push to enhance transparency. Meanwhile, the Record of Meeting is likely to reveal differing views within the MPC, particularly around how persistent inflation risks may become and how quickly policy should respond.Overall, the Bank is expected to lean against current market pricing for multiple rate hikes in 2026, signalling a more measured path. Westpac continues to expect just one hike this year, with more substantial tightening deferred until 2027 once the economic impact of the energy shock becomes clearer. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran’s top joint military commandSays it will deal with infrastructure of U.S. and its allies in the region in a way that will deprive them from the region’s oil and gas for years Says it will continue attacks on military, security and economic infrastructure of Israel and U.S. in the region with greater intensity This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump: A whole civilization will die tonightTrump says in 'heated negotiations' with IranReport: Iran 'positively reviewing' the request for a ceasefirePakistan asks Trump to extend deadline for 2 weeks and Iran to open Hormuz for 2 weeksIranian media warns residents to stay off bridges in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and UAEVance on Iran: Very shortly, this war will concludeHopes for an Iran deal perk upFed's Goolsbee nothing in Federal Reserve act says make the stock/Pres. happyUS February durable goods orders -1.4% vs -1.0% expectedFed's Williams: Iran war will drive up headline inflationTehran Times says diplomatic channels are still open, deletes earlier postNY Fed one-year inflation expectations rise to 3.4% from 3.0%The US treasury auctions off $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.897%Meta advertisers are reducing spending and their AI ad rollout has been flawed - ScotiaIran's Kharg Island targeted with several strikes, Iran's Kashan railway bridge hit tooSenior Iranian source: Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the USMarkets:WTI crude oil down $0.15 to $112.26 after reaching as high as $117.63US 10-year yields down 3.2 bps to 4.30%Gold up $60 to $4708S&P 500 up 0.1%AUD leads, USD lagsThe day started off with a grim message from Trump talking about destroying Iran's civilization. That note led to some consternation for Trump, even from within his own party. The mood darkened further on headlines from the semi-official Tehran Times that said diplomatic channels had been severed.But shortly afterwards the Tehran Times deleted the post and said there was still communication and several reports started to highlight talks. Most-optimistic was JD Vance saying the war wound end soon, though that was conditioned by Iran "doing the right thing" so it didn't exactly move the needle.The real shift came late in the day on a report from Reuters saying that Iran was reviewing a ceasefire proposal positively. That proposal appears to be one from Pakistan calling for a two week path to a permanent end to the war. With that, stocks and oil reversed and Treasury yields hit the lows of the day.The whole world is now holding its breath ahead of the 8 pm ET deadline. With that, the next few hours will be pivotal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The major US indices are closing mixed with the Dow industrial average lower, the S&P and NASDAQ index are marginally higher. The declines for the day were you raised after reports that Pakistan was brokering a cease fire deal. Pres. Trump said that negotiations were heated. The proposed deal calls for 2 weeks of kicking the can down the road.Looking at the major indices Dow industrial average - 85.42 points or -0.18% at 46584.46S&P index +5.02 points or 0.08% at 6616.85NASDAQ index +21.51 points or 0.10% at 22017.85At session lows, the:Dow was down -455.11 points.S&P index was down -77.28 pointsNASDAQ was down -385.34 points.Some of the winners and losers included : This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Eyes are once again on the war makers. The current state of play is Pakistan has proposed a 2 week ceasefire to them both. Under consideration is the word from both.Trump's deadline is 8pm US Eastern time, 0000 GMT. Apart from that the RBNZ is expected on hold today. I'll have more to come on this separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The US stocks have erased their declines. The S&P is up 5.02 points or 0.08%. The NASDAQ index is up 21.51 points or 0.10%.Crude oil is now lower with the May contract down -$0.12 or -0.12% at $112.40. The bond yields are also in negative territory with the 10 year down-2.2 basis points in the two-year down -3.5 basis points.The USD is lower.In the video above, I take a look at the moves in the major currencies adverse at the US dollar. What has the moves to the downside done from a technical perspective? Where are the next targets? What are the new risk defining levels now? I go through it all for the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump was asked about Iran and said he "can't comment" because he's in "heated negotiations" with Iran.At this point it's clear that negotiations are ongoing but we're only four hours away from a brutal escalation. The market closed with a positive note so hopefully that can continue into tomorrow.More: Trump says he's about to be briefed on negotiations.Update: The Wall Street Journal reports that US and Arab officials say talks are now centering around getting a deadline extension, not a deal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There are some positive ticks on this., which cites a senior official from Iran talking to Reuters.In terms of the two week proposal, White House press secretary Karoline Leavit tells Axios: The President has been made been aware of the proposal, and a response will come.We have seen the S&P 500 rise to 6606 from 6585 on the headline but 'positively reviewing' it is a strange turn of phrase. Does it mean reviewing it or is positive about accepting it? It certainly sounds like good news but it's a really dangerous moment so we will have to see.I have some faith that JD Vance was laying the groundwork for a deal when he said that the military objectives were complete and a deal was near earlier today. That said, I've also seen videos of bombs striking bridges in Iran today and there are plenty of reports of Iran striking back as well.It's extremely tough to have any reasoned conviction about what will come next but as an optimist, I'd hope we can end this war and move on to trading on the economy or corporate fundamentals instead of this. It has been an ugly series of non-stop headlines, leaks and misinformation. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Shariff:Says diplomatic efforts are progressing steadilyRequests Trump extend the deadline for two weeksRequests Iran open the Strait for two weeks as a goodwill gestureUrges all sides to observe a ceasefire for two weeks to allow diplomacy and achieve a conclusive termination of the warSome positive movements in markets on this but Iran has dug in previously to say that it won't open Hormuz for a temporary ceasefire and only wants a conclusion to the war with guarantees.Here is the full message:Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future. To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks. Pakistan, in all sincerity, requests the Iranian brothers to open Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture. We also urge all warring parties to observe a ceasefire everywhere for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war, in the interest of long-term peace and stability in the region. To make this work, either Trump will need to back off on his 'deadline' or Iran will need to back down on opening the Strait. Politically, it's tough for either side. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The obvious target of such an attack would be the King Fahd Causeway, which is the main artery between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, with millions of crossings each year. Bahrain’s hospitality, restaurants, and entertainment sectors are heavily dependent on visits from Saudi Arabia, along with many jobs that rely on cross-border commuting.The series of bridges and islands spans 25 km and is the only land link between the two and often handles 60,000 vehicles per day. If destroyed it would virtually eliminate the tourist economy from Bahrain, which is 6-8% of GDP.Another notable target would be the Jubail causeway. It serves the Jubail industrial city, which is the home of much of Saudi Arabia's petrochemicals industry. It's a 12km span that connects to Abu Ali Island and offshore facilities.Another notable bridge is the Wadi Leban Bridge in Riyadh, which is 763 meters long and contains a six-lane highway. If it were destroyed, it would be catastrophic for Riyadh logistics and daily life, leading to around-the-clock gridlock.In Abu Dhabi, the Sheikh Zayed Bridge is 842 meters long and is the gateway to Abu Dhabi island from the north east. Three other bridges connect it and severing those would be a major blow.Dubai already has major traffic problems so destroying any of the bridges on Dubai creek would be problematic, though the UAE is famous for its construction prowess so it would likely be rebuilt quickly.In terms of market moves, the mood is worsening as Tansim cites a military official who said:"If Trump wants to fall into a hole with his madness, we have prepared a black hole for him from which it will be impossible for him to get out"That has stock markets sagging back towards the lows. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.