Since a retest on its key medium-term “Expanding Wedge” range support on 22 August 2025, the AUD/USD has staged a minor bullish reversal and rallied by 3.2% (low to high) to print an intraday high of 0.6620 on Tuesday, 9 September 2025, on the backdrop of a broad-based weaker US dollar against other major currencies in anticipation of a Fed dovish pivot.Read more on US CPI Preview: Implications for the DXY & Federal Reserve Fig. 1: One-day rolling performances of the US dollar against major currencies as of 10 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) In today’s Asia session, on 10 September, the Australian dollar is the strongest-performing currency among the majors against the US dollar. Based on a one-day rolling performance, the USD/AUD cross rate has declined by -0.3%, much more than the US Dollar Index, which is trading almost unchanged (see Fig. 1).The current upswing in AUD/USD has been reinforced by easing concerns over a potential deflationary spiral in China from the latest key inflationary trends data for August.China’s core CPI has swung up further into growth territory Fig. 2: China CPI and core CPI with AUD/USD as of 10 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) China is a key trading partner of Australia, where a higher consumer demand from China on Australia’s raw minerals products is likely to exert upside pressure on the Aussie dollar.Despite the weaker-than-expected headline China’s consumer prices (CPI) that dropped to -0.4% y/y in August from a flat reading in July, and missing forecasts of a -0.2% y/y fall, the core CPI (excluding food and energy) has improved to a further positive reading of 0.9% y/y in August from 0.8% y/y in July,Overall, the core CPI trend in China has trended higher over the past six months, since the February 2025 print of -0.1% year-over-year. Interestingly, the long-term movement (monthly chart) of the AUD/USD has a direct correlation with the trend of China’s core CPI (see Fig. 2).China’s improving core CPI trend is likely to lift consumer confidence, which has remained subdued since the post-COVID period and the property market downturn. A recovery in sentiment could drive stronger demand for Australia’s raw minerals, creating a positive feedback loop that supports further strength in the Aussie dollar.Let’s now decipher the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the AUD/USD and its key levels to watch from a technical analysis perspective. Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend as of 10 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 4: AUD/USD medium-term trend as of 10 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Since its minor swing low of 0.6501 printed on 4 September 2025, AUD/USD is now undergoing a potential minor bullish acceleration phase after a retest of its 20-day moving average.Bullish bias above 0.6580 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 0.6620 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 0.6640 and 0.6660/0.6680 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 3).Key elements Price actions of the AUD/USD have traded back above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages since last Friday, 5 September 2025, which reinforces a minor uptrend phase that is still in progress.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to stage a rebound at its parallel ascending support, suggesting that the short-term bullish momentum condition remains intact.The AUD/USD is still evolving within a medium-term “Expanding Wedge” configuration since 22 April 2025, with the upper limit/resistance of the “Expanding Wedge” standing at 0.6660/0.6700 (also the long-term secular descending trendline from 25 February 2021 high) (see Fig. 4).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below 0.6580 key short-term support invalidates the bullish scenario on the AUD/USD to trigger off another round of minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.6550 and 0.6525. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Some contradicting headlines are influencing the US Dollar in a battle of wits right ahead of quintessential inflation data.Markets have been unable to provide a clear answer on how the upcoming FOMC (September 17th) and its rate cut expectations will affect the future outlook for the Dollar.The thesis had been that despite negative news (Jerome Powell's change in tone at Jackson Hole or the recent Non-Farm Payrolls), traders have failed to sell the US Dollar convincingly, with the DXY doomed in sideways action.The freshly released downward revisioned BLS report (bearish for the USD) and the rising tensions in the Middle East with Israel-Hamas war taking another turn (bullish for the USD) are once again prevented a clear path ahead for the Greenback.However, some interesting technical patterns might be getting into play as we approach the surely decisive pair of inflation reports in the US PPI (8:30 E.T. tomorrow) and Thursday's CPI report. Let's take a look at the Dollar Index. Read More:Interest Rate Cut Bets Intact After -911k Jobs Revision, WIll Recession Fears Grow?BLS revisions dampen a decent crypto altcoin session – SOL, XRP, DOGE and ADA analysisHow could the data influence the US Dollar? Potential reactions The upcoming PPI report should bring back memories of the previous humoungous beat in the past month (0.9% vs 0.2% exp) pushing inflation expectations higher for the consecutive University of Michigan surveys (the FED hates that).This comes as Participants started to be less and less cocnerned by tariffs and their impact. Despite hurting producers before consumers, fears are that Producer Prices increases will repercutate in upcoming CPI releases, highlighting Thursday's number even more.A relatively weak PPI could help to support current sentiment quite largely, indicating that the past month increase was just a one off – This should support a 50 bps cut further (Dollar down).However an upward beat should do just the reverse and add to the anxiety (Dollar up)CPI will really be in focus however as Participants look to see if the higher producing costs have started to bite in consumers pockets.Reactions should be similar to the PPI, but their extent could be much larger: A higher inflation for Consumers should prevent a 50 bps entirely, towards more gradual cut and spark stagflation fears. US Dollar could hence maintain its sideways movement.Dollar Index intraday outlookDollar Index 4H Chart US Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Last week's data has brought some renewed selling momentum as bears have managed to form a downward tight bear channel (bear candles overlapping each other).The weekly open hence formed a small gap to test the July support/pivot zone, and this morning of action actually saw a decent rebound, undoing some of the bear advantage.Arriving at a key technical standpoint, bears entering here could take the hand by rejecting the 97.60 to 97.80 range lows (break-retest style).Keep in mind that action will be swift tomorrow (expect spikes) and prices may just dawdle around until then.Key levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Support Levels:97.40 to 97.80 Range Support (currently getting tested)Last Pivot before run-higher 97.15 Zone acting as Key Support2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Resistance Levels:98.00 Mid-Range pivot98.50 to 98.80 Resistance ZoneMid-line of the ascending channel and psychological level 99.50100.00 Main resistance zoneDollar Index 30m Chart Dollar Index (DXY) 30M Chart, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer to the short-timeframe, the support zone that is currently trading will be a major test for bulls.Managing to hold the lows of the current support (97.40, immediate short-term support) would indicate balanced action, which would be more in the bulls favor after failing to hold lower.On the other hand, sellers appearing at the immediate short-term resistance (97.70) could trigger break-retest selling reactions.A breakout in any direction should see continuation.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Even after Non-Farm Payrolls, cryptocurrencies and other assets are still in kind of a weird zone.Despite being the newest main asset class, digital assets does not avoid the pre-data undecisive trading phenomenon – Key Market participants will usually await for key data to move their pawns forward and generating volatility.This can be seen with whale volumes (big crypto traders, portfolios above 10,000 BTC) shutting down since July, with Retail traders coming in strong and taking their part of the cake which maintain prices at decent levels.Also, Cryptocurrencies and particularly altcoins enjoyed some decent flows today, but the mood got sapped by the freshly released downward revision of US Labor.Doge has made it to the top of the board for the second consecutive day, XRP is making a comeback around $3.00 and Solana just marked some new intermediate highs.The biggest volumes and moves may only really materialize after Thursday's CPI Report (8:30 ET), however we shall still have a look at a few altcoin charts with ADA, XRP, SOL and DOGE. Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) bullies its way to new record highs – Potential targets and fundamental outlookMarkets Today: DXY Hits 7-Week Low, Nikkei Breaches 44000, French Politics in Focus, DAX Steady at ResistanceThe Crypto Market today: A green picture Crypto market overview, September 9, 2025 – Source: Finviz Cryptocurrency altcoin technical analysis: Solana, Doge, XRP and ADASolana 8H Chart Solana 8H Chart, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Solana has held in the performing side of the crypto Market as of late as highlighted in our most recent crypto update.SOL is in the middle of an approval of ETF creations amid a SEC and Exchanges opening for such crypto offerings, leading to ongoing accumulation.Holding strong despite competing altcoins correcting tends to provide signs of relative strength, and relative strength tends to last.Supported by its 50-period MA (a key technical indicator to monitor), Solana is approaching the upper bound of its longer run upward channel situated between $220 to $225 and reactions there will be interesting to monitor.A rejection here could point to a retest of the $180 to $185 momentum zone, while a breakout would not see much resistance before $250.Some ongoing selling is happening due to the downbeat US Labor data revisions. Levels of interest for SOL trading:Support Levels:$200 psychological level$185 momentum pivot and recent swing lows$160 Major support and low of channelResistance Levels:Daily highs $218$220 to $225 upper bound of channelJanuary Pivot/Resistance $250 to $260Current all-time high $295A parenthesis on SOL/ETH SOL/ETH relative performance chart, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking at SOL/ETH also can generate interesting viewsooking at SOL/ETH also can generate interesting views:Solana is taking the short-term hand again after Ethereum's domination in the past few months: From May to end-August, Ethereum performed at +146% vs Solana's 47%.On the other hand, things have seemed to start to revert with Ether's muted performance (hanging between $4200 to $4,400 in the past two weeks), allowing Solana to outperform its sibling as seen on the chart.DOGE Daily Chart DOGE 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Meme coins are attempting a comeback after staying dormant since the April 2025 bottoms in other coins.Memecoins rallying have been signs of cycle ends, but for now the rally is still very young atfer prices just broke out of a triangle formation.Breaking the $0.28 highs should attract further upside momentum. Levels of interest for DOGE trading:Support Levels:Longer-run Pivot $0.20Key Support 0.14 to 0.16$0.10 Psychological LevelResistance Levels:Recent highs resistance 0.28Key hurdle for renewed Bull domination $0.31 to 0.330.40 Psychological resistanceAll-time highs $0.81XRP 4H Chart XRP 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView XRP freshly retested the $3.00 mark in the morning session, however the move is getting restricted by some profit taking since the BLS Survey got released, hurting sentiment.Having broken its descending channel, the price action is much closer to neutral now than the bearish tilt the crypto was heading towards just a week ago.Keep an eye on the $2.95 to $3.03 Key Pivot (blue square): Above should bring more upside, while rejecting current trading point to further correction.Levels of interest for XRP trading:Support Levels:Current $3.00 Major Pivot Zone$2.60 to 2.70 immediate support$2.00 psychological levelResistance Levels:4H MA 200 $2.99 (Immediate resistance)$3.03 daily highsPrevious all-time Highs - $3.39Current ATH resistance around $3.66ADA 4H Chart ADA 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Some fresh buying has stepped in at the 0.80 Support level and allows to form a fresh upward channel.Its Lower boundary stays fairly close to current trading, however with many key moving averages acting as support (50 and 200 on the chart), the path could continue upward.ADA has seen some volatile momentum without going too far either to the upside or downside, therefore the next phase is closely watched by participants to see if the altcvoin can gather momentumLevels of interest for ADA trading:Support Levels:$0.83 50 and 200-period Moving averages$0.80 Key Support$0.70 psychological levelResistance Levels:Current Pivot around $0.90 and Daily highs (0.8970)$0.95 Mini resistance$1.00 ResistanceMarch 2025 $1.17 HighsSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The New Zealand dollar added gains earlier today but was unable to consolidate. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5927, down 0.19% on the day. The New Zealand dollar has surged as much as 1.9% since Thursday.New Zealand manufacturing sales slides New Zealand's manufacturing sector continues to struggle. Manufacturing sales fell sharply in the second quarter with a 2.9% decline. This was a sharp reversal from the 4.8% in Q1 and well below the market estimate of 4.5% increase.Manufacturing sales were broadly lower across the sector and are expected to weigh on second-quarter GDP, which will be released next week. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the cash rate to 3.0% last month as it continues to be aggressive. The RBNZ has chopped 225 basis points in the current easing cycle and is expected to continue easing in order to boost the weak economy.The RBNZ meets next on October 20 and the the third-quarter inflation report just a few days prior will be critical. Inflation jumped to 2.7% in Q2 but that is still within the Reserve Bank's target band of 1-3%. If inflation moves lower, the central bank will have greater flexibility to deliver another rate cut in October.In the US, the Federal Reserve is poised to deliver a rate hike next week for the first time since December 2024. The weak nonfarm payrolls report has raised the likelihood of a half-point cut to 12%, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 88%, according to CME's FedWatch.NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD has pushed below support at 0.5935 and is testing 0.5937. Below, there is support at 0.5915There is resistance at 0.5947 and 0.5955 NZDUSD 4-Hour Chart, September 9, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US President Trump will not be happy with this one: After firing Biden's BLS appointee for "rigged" statistics, it turns out that statistics really aren't all that great.The high-tier data revision highlights a -911K revision since March 2025. This would put even more emphasis on the weakening trend of the US Labor Market.Revisions to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data get released every trimester and offer a preliminary review of the data.Most Read: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Eyes Further Gains as Strategy Expands Holding and ETF Flows Remain StrongThe final benchmark revision will be released in February 2026 with the January 2026 employment situation news release.You can access the report right here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prebmk.nr0.htmUS Labor Market Flashing Recessionary Signs? The fact that the preliminary benchmark revision is negative is no real surprise. Looking back at the data since 2019 and the revisions have been negative every year except in 2022.The latest data suggests employers added nearly 76,000 fewer jobs per month than previously reported from April 2024 through March 2025. While Tuesday’s numbers don’t include month-by-month revisions, the sheer breadth implies that payroll growth in some months, likely August and October 2024, was likely negative.Looking at private payrolls, the BLS revised down annual job gains by 880,000, with the trade, transportation, and utilities sector logging the biggest mark downs.Economists at Goldman Sachs, J.P Morgan, Nomura Securities, and Royal Bank of Canada expect the agency to mark down net job gains by as much as 900,000 on an annual basis, or by about 75,000 a month, on average.That would shift the average monthly gain to about 74,000 jobs, compared with the average monthly gain of 149,000 currently reported—and could mean growth in some months was negative in the period measured. Bank of America’s team has forecasted a downward revision of up to a million fewer jobs in the 12 months to March.In the words of Moody's Analytics top economist Mark Zandi, “If businesses start laying [people] off, then I think this will not just be a jobs recession, but will be an overall economic downturn.”These words are starting to ring in the ears of some market participants no doubt. Given what we are seeing with Gold prices and the haven appeal going around, some are well positioned for what may be ahead for financial markets.It may not be a fair reflection but part of the problem facing business over the last few months has been uncertainty. A lot of which has stemmed from erratic trade policies put forth by the Trump administration .For all the chatter by the administration around tariffs it does not seem to be yielding any results. The budget deficit continues to widen while the fairytale that factory jobs will return to the US was always a pipedream. It is just too costly to manufacture for export in the United States and that is basic mathematics.So where does this leave the US economy? Of course it is not all doom and gloom, but warning signs are flashing.If concerns around a potential recession continue to rise, this could have a lasting impact on not just the US Dollar but global markets as well. Oil prices could feel the heat while safe havens could continue their impressive 2025 rally to unprecedented highs.Immediate Market Reaction The US Dollar Index first fell when the news came out before moving higher to trade up around 0.12% on the day.The index had traded at 7 week lows earlier today before bouncing higher with ever evolving rate cut expectations driving price moves.Bets on a 25 basis point cut, that was already priced in, were intact while ones on a jumbo 50 bps reduction jumped to about 10% before settling around 8%, as per CME's FedWatch tool Source: CME FedWatch Tool Technical Analysis - US Dollar Index (DXY) From a technical standpoint, the DXY is attempting a recovery today as markets wait on CPI data due on Thrusday.The DXY could continue to grind until then with immediate resistance resting at 97.70 before the recent highs at 98.37 and the 100-day MA at 98.65 come into focus.The downside holds support at 96.90 before the YTD lows at 96.37 comes into focus.US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart, September 9, 2025 Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities, and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Bullish acceleration supported rising implied volatility”, published on 2 September 2025.The precious yellow metal has staged the expected bullish breakout above its former all-time high of US$3,500 printed on 22 April 2025. Gold (XAU/USD) rallied by 5.3% to hit a current fresh intraday record high of US$3,655 at the time of writing.Lower opportunity costs reinforced the current bullish acceleration phase of Gold Fig. 1: 10-YR US Treasury real yield major trend with Gold (XAU/USD) as of 9 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView). Gold (XAU/USD), as a non-interest-bearing asset, tends to benefit in lower-rate environments. A decline in interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby supporting stronger demand.This dynamic can reinforce bullish momentum, potentially creating a positive feedback loop that drives further price appreciation.Since Fed Chair Powell’s dovish speech at Jackson Hole on 22 August, the 10-year US Treasury real yield (stripping out 10-year inflation expectations derived from the 10-year US Treasury inflation-protected bond) has declined by 19 basis points (bps) to a current level of 1.66% from 1.85% (see Fig. 1).Let’s now examine Gold (XAU/USD)’s latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical levels to watch. Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 9 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain bullish bias with a key short-term pivotal support at US$3,600 for Gold (XAU/USD). Minor bullish impulsive up move sequence is likely in progress, and a clearance above US$3,670 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at US$3,697 and US$3,725 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2).Key elements The current price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) in place since the 29 August 2025 low of US$3,404, are classified as a bullish acceleration movement depicted by a steeper minor ascending channel.The lower boundary of the steeper minor ascending channel confluences closely with the US$3,500 key short-term pivotal support.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to find support at its parallel ascending support after it exited from its overbought zone in today’s Asia session (9 September).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the US$3,600 key short-term support on Gold (XAU/USD) invalidates the bullish tone to trigger a deeper minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at US$3,561 and US$3,536. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Benefitting from a weak nonfarm payrolls report last week, recent demand for precious metals has secured a fresh yearly high for silver, trading at around $41.2708 at the time of writing.Silver trades +0.68% higher in today's session.Silver (XAG/USD): Key takeaways from today’s session With last week’s price action representing silver’s best weekly performance since early June, US labour data significantly missing expectations has further increased rate cut bets, benefitting non-yielding precious metalsOtherwise, persistent inflation, spiralling US debt, and generalised lack of economic confidence are offering a significant tailwind to silver pricingSilver (XAG/USD): September Fed rate cut virtually ‘nailed-on’ after poor labour data Ending last week in spectacular fashion, August’s NFP report fell short of expectations significantly, offering some upside to silver, which endedComing in some 50,000 openings below consensus, at 22k, the result not only represents a worse-than-expected result, but also signifies the fourth consecutive month where job growth has been virtually flat.While this is, quite literally, yesterday’s news, the report has all but confirmed that the Federal Reserve will cut target rates in its upcoming decision, aiming to kickstart an otherwise struggling labour market.Notwithstanding, recent dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve has also fed into the same narrative. CME FedWatch, 08/09/2025 At the time of writing, CME FedWatch rates a 25 bps cut at an 88.4% probability, which indicates a rare level of confidence in the Fed’s next decision.As expected, a non-yielding asset such as silver stands to benefit from any suggestion that rate cuts are becoming more likely, as proven by price action on Friday. At least for now, upside seems to have continued somewhat into this week’s trading.Silver (XAG/USD): Safe-haven flows and inflationary pressures still at play While the dollar looks set to continue its downtrend, it would be fair to say markets remain wary of the US economy, in no small part thanks to questions surrounding current sovereign debt, trade agreements and inflation.For now, these questions largely remain unanswered. This uncertainty dampens risk appetite, significantly boosting precious metal gains, a phenomenon seen for much of this year.In the latter case, sticky inflation, at least in a vacuum, is favourable for silver pricing, with many looking to precious metals as a means of hedging inflation. While heightened inflation can sometimes be met with a rate hike, typically silver negative, a struggling labour market will almost certainly force the Fed’s hand in cutting rates this time around.Coupled with renewed safe-haven flows on general recession fears, at least in the short term, one outcome is a two-sided tailwind helping bolster further precious metal gains - silver included.Silver (XAG/USD): Technical analysis - 08/09/2025 Silver (XAG/USD), OANDA, TradingView, 08/09/2025 On the daily timeframe, current price action remains well supported. If price can stay above $40.60, bulls will likely target $42.72 in the near term Read the latest coverage from MarketPulse: US indices remain uncertain ahead of CPI data – S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones outlook Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday provided a wide range of reactions, between the initial increased-rate cuts pricing boost to rising fears of an economic downturn in the world's largest economy.Uncertainty in the US continues as participants await Wednesday's PPI release (last month was a surprise, renewing tariff-led inflations fears) and more importantly, Thursday's CPI data.Friday's US Labor release have only confirmed one round of the multiple headwinds coming up for Markets – The US Dollar is stalling its descent against majors as a potential beat on inflation expectations would disallow a 50 bps cut in the 17th of September FOMC Meeting.In the meantime, Nasdaq is bringing stronger flows in today's session as equity index sentiment is holding even with Gold casually making new all-time highs – A piece will be release this early afternoon to spot potential hurdles to this rally.Let's have a look at an intraday picture for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the lagging Dow Jones. Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook – Moving forward from NFP, onto Inflation weekWTI Oil Rallies 1.8% as Russian Supply Concerns Outweigh Modest OPEC + Output HikeTechnical analysis for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow JonesNasdaq 4H Chart Nasdaq 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Late Friday dip buying has helped the tech-heavy index just around the pre-NFP level.It seems that the current bull-trend is resilient despite the shift in economic certainty, which doesn't frighten tech-stocks due to their way of generating income: Even broke, people will still watch videos and scroll pages, producing adversing revenues.Names like Oracle, Amazon, Broadcom and Palantir (surprise comeback?) is dragging Nasdaq above its competitors.Watch 23,867 as bulls are pushing towards the pre-NFP – Odds of a clear breakout before the mid-week inflation data is of low probabilities but everything is possible these days!Nasdaq technical levels of interest Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time Highs 23,986NFP highs 23,86724,250 potential resistance at middle of upward channelSupport LevelsDaily lows 23,69123,000 Key Support22,700 support at NFP lowsEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart S&P 500 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView The dip-buying seen in Nasdaq also spread to the S&P 500, but to a lower extent.The index would be more affected than its tech-focused peer by a slowdown in the labor market, nonetheless, as long as prices remain within the 6,490 to 6,512 Pivot, the price action is balanced.A break above would relaunch the push to further all-time highs while a failure to hold the pivot zone could bring stronger profit-taking.Everything will depend on Wednesday and Thursday's inflation data points.S&P 500 technical levels of interest Resistance LevelsFriday and NFP 6,533 All-time highs6,570 to 6,600 Potential ATH resistance (from Fibonacci extension)Way higher Fib-extension potential resistance from 6,650 to 6,700Support Levels6,490 to 6,512 pivot6,400 Main Support6,300 psychological support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Dow Jones 4H Chart Dow Jones 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Last week's still contracting ISM Manufacturing PMI report followed by the NFP report haven't helped the Dow.The index focuses on US manufacturing and production, which would get battered in an economic downturn. Particularly with tariffs hitting US Producers, expectations are getting lower for the US 30 compared to its younger-tech brothers. Bulls have brought it back from a retest of its 45,280 previous ATH level which helps to confirm the ongoing range (see on chart, check the triple retest of the ATH) and points to sideways action until Wednesday's PPI data.The 45,000 is the key handle to look for as a gauge for buyer-tenacity or a reversal in technical and fundamental sentiment, keep a close eye on this.Dow Jones technical levels of interest Levels for Dow Jones tradingResistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 45,765ATH Resistance Zone 45,700 (+/- 150 pts)1.618 Fibonacci-Extension for potential ATH resistance 46,400 to 46,850Support LevelsLow of imminent consolidation 45,280Key Support/longer-run pivot 45,000Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6588, up 0.49% on the day. Earlier, the Australian dollar climbed to a daily high of 0.6598, its highest level since July 25.The US dollar ended the week broadly lower, as investors dumped the greenback after the soft US employment report. August nonfarm payrolls fell to 22 thousand, well below the revised market estimate of 79 thousand and lower than the July gain of 75 thousand. The Australian dollar rose as much as 1.1% on Friday before giving up about half its gains. Australian confidence levels are expected to show an improvement on Tuesday. Westpac Consumer Confidence is projected to rise 1.0% in September after a strong 5.7% gain in August. The NAB Business Confidence has been moving higher and is expected to rise in August to 8 points from 7 a month earlier, which was the highest reading since August 2022.Chinese exports slipUS tariffs are taking their toll on China's economy. In August, China's exports to the US fell by 33%. The US and China extended a trade truce in August, but that has still left US tariffs of 55% on Chinese goods and 35% Chinese tariffs on US goods.China is in a deflationary phase and growth has been subdued. This does not bode well for the Australian economy or the Aussie, as China is Australia's largest trading partner. Australia hasn't been hit as hard as other countries by US trade policy, with tariffs of 10% on Australian products, but the US-China trade war could pose a serious headache for Australia's export sector.AUD/USD Technical The Australian dollar tested resistance at 0.6594 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.66330.6551 and 0.6512 are providing support AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 8, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Japanese yen is in positive territory on Monday. In the European sesssion, USD/JPY is trading at 147.87, down 0.35% on the day.Japan's economy expands 2.2% in Q2 The week has started on a positive note in Japan, as GDP for the second quarter was revised sharply higher to 2.2% y/y, up from the initial reading of 1.0% and above the Q1 gain of 0.3%.This was the fastest pace of growth since Q3 2024, as private consumption was higher, in part due to government subsidies for rice and energy. Exports were higher as firms rushed to ship to the US before the blanket 15% tariffs kicked in. On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded 0.5%, up from the initial reading of 0.3%. The increase in exports could be short-lived, as the US tariffs are making Japanese exports more expensive. Tariffs concerns could delay the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, and third-quarter GDP will help gauge the effect of the tariffs on Japan's economy.The political uncertainty in Japan is another factor which supports the BoJ staying on the sidelines. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has resigned after a disastrous election in which Ishiba's coalition lost its majority in the lower house of parliament. It remains unclear who will replace Ishiba, with a leadership vote expected in October. US nonfarm payrolls fall to 22 thousandUS nonfarm payrolls disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021.The money markets responded to the weak nonfarm payrolls report by fully pricing in a rate cut at next week's meeting, with a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut and a 10% chance of a half-point cut, according to CME's FedWatch. Prior to the jobs release, there was a 0% chance of a half-point cut.USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY is testing support at 147.60. Next, there is support at 146.62There is resistance at 148.37 and 149.35 USDJPY 1-Day Chart, September 8, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets had been desperately awaiting the Non-Farm Payrolls report before making their next move. Yet even after the release, uncertainty remains.Non-Farm Payrolls and their impact on the upcoming weeks Markets had been waiting for today for a while. This Friday brought us the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls report for August, and the numbers were certainly a surprise.The consequential miss—with just 22K new jobs vs 75K exp, and further downward revisions—paints a degrading picture for the labor market.While this would have spurred an immediate risk-off reaction, stocks opened slightly higher, but the reaction quickly shifted when the US equity markets opened, and the 10:00 A.M. bell brought strong profit-taking flows.Major US Indices are closing off their highs despite the increased rate cut bets.The 2-year yield has plummeted to its lowest level since April's Liberation Day trough, and markets are pricing in even more cuts for the year—currently just a bit below 75 basis points. There are three meetings left for the year.With the Fed now entering its pre-FOMC blackout period, Markets will scrutinize any tweet from Nick Timiraos from the WSJ for clues on the upcoming decision. He previously hinted at last-minute calls from the FED to redirect wrongly priced markets during the hike cycle.While interest rate markets start to price in a 50 basis point cut, that probability remains low, hovering around 10%The prospect of aggressive Fed cuts is holding risk appetite from a more risk-off tone across all asset classes, but metals and bonds are painting a picture of a softer economy.Weekly performance from different asset classes Weekly Asset Performance, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar has been surprisingly holding strong despite the further pricing for cuts, very close to unchanged throughout the week and even after today's disappointing NFP release.In terms of other assets, stocks and cryptocurrencies are still trading in a hesitant but upward path – Next week's open will be crucial to spot how participants envision the upcoming CPI and PPI reports. More details on this below.The best performers of this week have largely been the Metals, with the most-traded Gold and Silver pushing to new highs, with both up 4% on the week. As a matter of fact, Gold marked some new all-time highs ($3,600!) and is closing at its highs, a strong sign of continuation for next-week.On the other hand, increased supply prospects are really not helping Oil which was subject to a decent rebound last week but is down 3.5% (due to continued Russia-Ukraine war and OPEC+ rising their output) throughout this weekly trading, back to its mid-month $62 support. Read More:US Indices technicals as they open higher despite the miss in NFP – Cuts pricing boost stocks but sellers appearEUR/USD Breaks Channel as Rate Cut Bets Ramp Up… Potential 370 Pip Rally Incoming?The Week Ahead – Moving towards Inflation week and key trade data from China Trading has picked up again after a dull August – and as per usual, September offers intense volatility.This phenomenon is picking up with the upcoming September 17th FOMC Meeting, which now offers at 100% pricing for a 25bps and maybe more.Asia Pacific Markets - Trade data from China: Tariffs may now start to show in the numbers Asia-Pacific markets head into a heavy week of data with Japan, China, and Australia all on deck which should provide a clearer picture of the impact of tariffs.Japan kicks things off Sunday evening with a batch of Q2 GDP releases (quarterly, annualized, and the deflator) alongside the Current Account balance. Yen may find some relief from the increase US cut prospects, but that is still to see in next week's trading.At the same time, China releases its August trade data (exports, imports, and the trade balance in both CNY and USD terms).As a reminder, these numbers often set the tone for commodity-linked FX like the AUD and NZD.Monday brings Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence print, a useful gauge of sentiment before more heavyweight Chinese data arrives.On Tuesday, China is back in focus with CPI and PPI for August—inflation metrics that could confirm whether deflationary pressures are persisting or starting to ease.These releases will carry weight not just for China’s policy outlook but also for regional risk appetite.Finally, on Thursday, New Zealand drops its Business NZ PMI, an important look at whether the Kiwi economy is keeping pace with regional peers.All told, Japan’s growth data, China’s trade and inflation prints, and Australia’s sentiment survey will dominate the conversation across Asia, while New Zealand quietly rounds out the APAC week with its own manufacturing snapshot.US, Europe and UK Markets - US Inflation and the ECB Rate Decision In the US, eyes are glued to August inflation prints: PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday.Both will be decisive in showing how much of the recent tariff-led inflation is flowing into prices.Last month’s PPI spike was a wake-up call, and another upside surprise would force markets to reassess the Fed’s cutting path.The usual Jobless Claims, U-of-Mich consumer sentiment, and the Monthly Budget Statement follow, but inflation is really the dominant theme.In Europe, the calendar is also busy. German Industrial Production and the Eurozone Trade Balance open the week, before focus shifts to Thursday’s ECB policy decision.Except for a major surprise, rates in Europe are for now still expected to stay put for this year (almost no cut priced in).On Friday, the Eurozone Harmonized CPI will add another inflation datapoint just as markets parse US figures.The UK and Canada, by contrast, are quieter. The UK has no major releases, while Canada steps back after this week’s atrocious labor report. Sterling and the loonie will likely trade off USD’s reaction to US inflation and the leftover reactions to the NFP data.With tariffs clearly bleeding into producer prices and consumers not far behind, the upcoming week may well define whether markets are correct in the increasing pricing Fed cuts—or if the inflation story isn’t done yet. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Markets Today: Japan PM Resigns, Gold Above $3600/oz, China Exports Miss Forecasts, FTSE 100 Holds at SupportOil prices have risen as much as 1.8% at the start of the week as Oil pares last week's losses. The rally this morning has come as a surprise to some quarters after eight OPEC + members agreed to lift output by 137,000 bpd from October.However, the move by OPEC + was seen as more modest than expected and thus saw market participants shrug off the potential consequences. On top of that, markets are focused on the possibility of more sanctions on Russian crude.after Russia hit Ukraine with its biggest air attack since the start of the war.For now, concerns around Russian supply are keeping Oil prices supported.Russia-Ukraine Developments Frederic Lasserre, an expert from the energy trading company Gunvor, stated on Monday that new sanctions against countries that buy Russian oil could disrupt the global oil supply.This comes after Russia carried out its largest air attack of the Ukraine war over the weekend, which set fire to a government building in Kyiv and killed at least four people, according to Ukrainian officials.On Sunday, Donald Trump said that several European leaders would visit the U.S. to talk about how to solve the conflict.Over the weekend, the investment bank Goldman Sachs released a note saying it expects a slightly larger surplus of oil in 2026. They believe that increased oil production in the Americas will be greater than the decrease in supply from Russia and the stronger demand worldwide. Goldman Sachs kept its oil price forecast for 2025 the same, and for 2026, it predicts the average price for Brent crude to be $56 a barrel and for West Texas Intermediate crude to be $52 a barrel.OPEC + Production Increases as Saudi Arabia Strategy Pivot Continues OPEC+, a group of major oil producers led by Saudi Arabia, announced a surprise plan to increase oil production. Although this might seem like a risk to a market that already has too much oil, the actual effect on prices will likely be small.The decision is more about politics. Saudi Arabia is using this to show its leadership, gain a bigger share of the market, and strengthen its relationship with the U.S.The group agreed to gradually undo 1.65 million barrels per day of production cuts that were supposed to last until the end of 2026. They will increase their output by 137,000 barrels per day in October. At this rate, it will take them a year to fully reverse those cuts. Source: LSEG While the market is expected to have a surplus of oil due to increased production from countries like the U.S. and Argentina, the actual amount of new oil added by OPEC+ will probably be less than announced. This is because most members are already producing as much as they can.However, Saudi Arabia is a major exception. It has a lot of extra production capacity, unlike Russia, which is limited by sanctions. This puts Saudi Arabia in a strong position to increase its market share, especially from U.S. oil companies that may slow down production as prices fall.This pivot by Saudi Arabia has been something which has been building over the past few months. The strategy does seem to be a sound one and time will tell whether the Saudis will reap the benefits.For now though, this move may keep further Oil price gains in check as oversupply concerns also remain a concern. WTI Oil Daily Chart, September 8, 2025 From a technical analysis standpoint, Oil is eyeing a recovery after last week's selloff.However, the fundm=amentals might continue to keep a prolonged rally in check as uncertainties continue to dominate the agenda. Immediate resistance rests at the 100-day MA which rests at 64.65 before the 66.15 and 67.30 handles come into focus.A move lower from current prices, could bring last week's swing low around 61.50 before the 60.70 and the YTD low at 55.10 come into focus. WTI Oil Daily Chart, September 8, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are long on WTI with 89% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are long means WTI prices could decline in the near-term. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: GBP/USD Forecast: Cable Recovers but the Outlook Remains Murky. WIll NFP Data Serve as a Catalyst?EUR/USD finally got the catalyst it needed to break the channel that price had been holding since the back end of July.August 22 and September 1 both saw EUR/USD attempt to break beyond the channel but the move was met with swift selling pressure. This led many to believe that a catalyst may be needed to inspire a breakout as the pair saw a lot of choppy price action over the last month.Jobs Report Weighs on the US Dollar Non farm payrolls rose only about 22k while economists guessed near 75k. There were about 29k upward revisions for the last two months, yet even after adding them the total still looks like a small miss.Unemployment edged up to 4.3 percent from 4.2 percent, which was kind of expected, but under employment, workers who want more hours climbed faster to 8.1 percent from 7.9 percent.Hours worked fell roughly to 34.2 per week and wage growth slipped to 3.7 percent year over year instead of 3.9 percent, so softness appears everywhere.Read more: US Non-Farm Payrolls finally release and they miss! 22K vs 75K consensus, Canadian Jobs data regress (-65K vs +10K)Over the last two‑and‑a‑half years almost nine‑tenths of new jobs came from just three fields: government, private health and education, plus leisure‑hospitality.If you strip those three out, payroll numbers have actually slipped for four straight months, hinting at problems in sectors usually called growth engines of the U.S. economy.As things stand, serious concerns are starting to be raised by consumers around the health of the US economy. Consumers expect the labor market situation to deteriorate rather than get any better.According to recent University of Michigan data, 62% of Americans think unemployment will rise over the next 12 months while only 13% think it will fall. This gives a net reading of 49% who expect unemployment to rise. We’ve only seen worse readings on four occasions in the past 50 or so years, as seen in the chart below. Source: ING Think Implications for the FED Market participants have for the first time begun pricing in the probability of a 50 bps rate cut in September. This has been one of the biggest reasons for the US Dollar weakness we are seeing today.According to LSEG data at the time of writing, markets were pricing in around 11% probability of a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. This has in part led to a slide in the US Dollar and seen Gold prices attract haven bids. Source: LSEG The uncertainties and the potential for a recession are definitely rising and this could also be why haven demand has remained strong.The Fed’s Beige Book released this week read grim, and that helped spark a 50 bp cut last year. Yet the current makeup of the Fed looks cautious, and the shadow of tariffs and inflation adds uncertainty. It is likely that a majority for another 50 bps cut won’t form, though two or three members could vote for it.Policy Divergence to Aid the Euro Through December 2025 The Euro may also gain an advantage as policy divergence comes into play. Let me explain, the ECB may still cut rates once more this year but that is about it.The Fed are noow scheduled for two rate cuts and potentially if the job market worsens, three rate cuts this year if not an early one in 2026. This sets the Euro up handsomely to gain further ground against the greenback.The Eruo Area economy is grappling with its own challenges though so the narrative could change. For now though the outlook does favor further gains for the Euro against the Greenback.Looking Ahead Market participants will now turn their attention to a slew of high impact data releases next week from the US.PPI, CPI and University of Michigan data will all be released and could have a further impact on rate cut expectations. A softer than expected CPI and PPI print could see the bets for a 50 bps rate cut in September rise and further bolster the Euro.Also keep an eye out for comments from Federal Reserve policymakers and how they receive and interpret today's data release. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Technical Analysis - EUR/USD EUR/USD is breaking the channel on the four hour chart which has been in play since late July.We have seen two attempts to break the channel fail and this time the NFP data may be the catalyst.A four-hour candle close above the channel has occurred and if the pattern for channel breaks is to conclude it could result in a potential 370 pip upside rally.This could put EUR/USD around the 1.2100 mark should it come to fruition.Now there are a host of fundamental factors discussed above which support the move. There is also a few that do not, so bear that in mind moving forward.Looking at the period-14 RSI and it is currently in extremely overbought territory. This could lead to a short-term pullback before the bulls continue to move higher.Looking at the four-hour chart and the swing low at 1.1631 will hold the key for me. A four-hour candle break and close below this level would have me reevaluating the pair.As long as this level remains support, the potential for a rally remains in play. Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets got the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls number for August. With the consequential miss (22K vs 75K exp) and further downward revisions, the picture is bleak but stocks open slightly higher. There is immediate selling from profit-taking however, keep an eye on this.Some analysts report that the FED would have comfortably cut by 50 bps if it wasn't for the US Tariffs that have just started to impact the data.The 2Y yield is now at the lowest since April 2025 (Liberation Day trough) and Markets are still pricing more cuts for the year: Currently at 75 bps for the year and still rising.With the FED entering its Blackout Period (no interviews on Economic or financial policies until the FOMC), any comments from WSJ's Timiraos will have to be closely monitored for tips to the upcoming decision – He is the FED's unofficial spokesperson. US 2-Year Yield, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Enough talks about rates, the focus of this piece is to look at the US Indices which are opening green throughout the board.FED Interest Rate cuts prospects are boosting the risk-appetite despite a lower projected immediate economic progress, but remember that Stock Markets ≠ the Economy. Let's have a look at S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones levels.US Indices chart and technical levelsS&P 500 breaks a new all-time high but momentum starts to slow down S&P 500 4H Chart, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P is leading all indices on its way higher, with the global scope of stocks rising from the cheaper financing prospects of further rate cuts, the 500-best US companies flex their muscle.One thing to consider is that despite algos trying to push the price higher, some profit-taking seems to be happening around immediate trading levels.The day is far from over and you can expect volatility to keep rising as participants place their bets.Look at 6,539, a key Fibonacci level: A large push above would confirm the up-move while rejecting there should lead to some further profit-taking flows.Current levels for S&P 500 trading Levels for S&P 500 tradingResistance Levelssession highs 6,533 All-time highs6,539 breakout/resistance level6,570 to 6,600 Potential ATH resistance (from Fibonacci extension)Way higher Fib-extension potential resistance from 6,650 to 6,700Support Levels6,490 to 6,512 ATH resistance (broken) now pivot6,400 Main Support6,300 psychological support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (NFP Lows)Nasdaq is back on track to retest its all-time highs but shows hesitancy Nasdaq 4H Chart, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The tech-focused index, largely the winner for this year, is now starting to slow down a bit compared to its other peers – Nonetheless, it is still heading towards a test of its prior peak.Sellers just above the highs of the range mentioned in our pre-NFP analysis and it will be essential to watch if buyers do manage to push the index to retest the 23,986 ATH.For now, the Nasdaq is showing mixed signs – Look for a break above (23,867) today's highs or below the pre-data CFD lows (23,691)Current levels for Nasdaq trading Levels for Nasdaq tradingResistance LevelsCurrent All-time Highs 23,986Daily highs 23,86724,250 potential resistance at middle of upward channel (broken?)Support LevelsDaily lows 23,69123,000 Key Support22,700 support at NFP lowsEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportDow Jones forming a triple top Dow Jones 4H Chart, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Still constrained within its rising wedge, the Dow raced to retest its All-time highs (45,765) but with buyers failing to push above, a short-term triple top is forming.Sellers are currently appearing however as buyer strength is exhausting.The MA 50 (45,434) which was used as a bottom in yesterday's session will be acting as key support.Current levels for Dow Jones trading Levels for Dow Jones tradingResistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 45,765ATH Resistance Zone 45,700 (+/- 150 pts)1.618 Fibonacci-Extension for potential ATH resistance 46,400 to 46,850Support Levels4H MA 50 45,434Previous ATH resistance zone, now pivot 45,000 to 45,280Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The British pound has pushed higher on Friday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3519, up 0.66% on the day. About half the pound's gains have come following today's weak US nonfarm payrolls report.UK retail sales accelerate in JulyIt was a good-news-bad news retail sales report out of the UK today. July retail sales rose a respectable 0.6% m/m, up from a downwardly revised 0.3% in June and higher than the market estimate of 0.2%. The improvement was driven by warm weather and the women's European soccer championship. The bad news was the sharp downward corrections to the the previous months' data. Retail sales for June was revised lower to 0.3% from 0.9%.Annualized retail sales posted a with a gain of 1.1%, missing the market estimate of 1.3%. This was above the June reading of 0.9%, which was revised from 1.7%.US NFP misses bigAll eyes were on today's US nonfarm payrolls, which disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021.Employers remain cautious about hiring in an uncertain economic environment and the Trump tariffs aren't helping to restore confidence.This key employment release has taken on double significance, coming shortly before the next Federal Reserve meeting on September 17. There could be calls for the Fed to consider a jumbo half-point cut as the labor market is cooling quickly, although the most likely scenario is a modest quarter-point cut.GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD has pushed above several resistance lines and is testing 1.3499. Next, there is resistance at 1.35521.3415 and 1.3395 are providing support GBPUSD 1-Day Chart, September 5, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The monthly release for US August jobs is at 22K vs 75K Expectations – Job growth is almost flat in the past 4 months!The prior month came at 74K vs 110K expectations, but the biggest surprise was to the downside revisions which turned a 291K increase in two months to an-only 33K increase.With the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, there really is a decent slowdown happening in the US.EDIT: As things are unfolding, the Market is pricing a 100% chance of a cut on September 17 and starting to price chances of a 50 bps (currently around 14%).July Jobs revised at 79K (vs 74K) and June months actually at -12K vs 14K on the second revisions.Canadian jobs also regressed quite largely at -65K vs 10K expectations, sending the Loonie down vs other majors.The US Dollar is falling off, about to break support, equities are rallying but mixed : a more than 25 bps is starting to price but still has low probabilities of happening.The data still shows an increase, albeit a very small one.Check out the reactions to the US Dollar, a few FX Charts and Equities Futures. Read More:Markets Today: UK Retail Sales Beat Estimates, Trump Signs Japan Deal, FTSE 100 Bounces Off 100-Day MA. NFP NextSilver nears its all-time highs, where to look next? XAG higher timeframe outlookMarket reactions Market overview, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView It will be essential to log in after the Market open to see reactions when most volumes enter the market.For now, it's USD and CAD down, risk-assets up but mixed, US Treasuries and Gold flying higher.Current FX Picture after NFP FX currency performance, September 5, 2025 – Source: Finviz Look at the current pricing for FOMC Cuts for the rest of the year: Cut Pricing for the rest of the year – Source: FEDWatch Tool Markets just added about 17 bps of extra cut pricing to the rest of the year, which takes the 2.1 cuts to just about 3 cuts.Let's see how this progresses and what influence it will have on Markets.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian dollar has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3793, down 0.19% on the day. We could see stronger movement from the Canadian dollar later in the day, as Canada and the US release the August employment reports.Canada's employment expected to reboundCanada's labor market took a beating in July, with the loss of 40.8 thousand jobs, including 10 thousand job losses in manufacturing. The markets expect a rebound in August, with an estimate of 7.5 thousand new jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 7.0% from 6.9%. The weak July reading was directly attributable to the US tariffs, which have hurt the Canadian economy. The US has slapped 35% tariffs on many Canadian products and Canada ships some 75% of its export to its southern neighbor. The two sides are yet to reach a trade agreement but Canada can ill afford a protracted trade war with the US.Markets brace for weak US NFPAll eyes are on today's US employment report. With inflation largely under control, nonfarm payrolls are closely monitored and could move the US dollar.The markets are expecting virtually no change in nonfarm payrolls, with an estimate of 73 thousand for August after a gain of 75 thousand in July. The labor market is clearly cooling as employers remain cautious in an uncertain economic environment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 4.3% from 4.2%, which would be the highest level since December 2021.The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to lower rates at the September 17 meeting, but a weak nonfarm payrolls report would likely lead to calls for the Fed to respond with a jumbo half-point cut.USD/CAD Technical USDCAD has pushed below support at 1.3798 and is testing 1.3798. Below, there is support at 1.3784There is resistance at 1.3819 and 1.3826 USDCAD 4-Hour Chart, September 5, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This article is an update to an end-August Silver (XAG) piece. Read More: Silver (XAG) and other metals in focus as the Federal Reserve independance gets challenged Silver has outshined its peers in terms of performance, bolstered by the increasingly-menaced FED independence and Gold also rallying to new all-time highs. Metals comparative performance since August 2025 – Source: TradingView The fundamentals are not changing: Markets are still anxious about the future outlook for the US Dollar with the Trump Administration's US Exceptionalism policy.As time progressed, and despite some harsh tariffs that will start to bite into US Importers' profits, it seems that Markets were putting less emphasis on such policies with the Dollar Index stopping its early-2025 fall-off.The US Dollar's status as reserve currency is still far from being replaced.Nonetheless, firms and central banks have been looking for ways to diversify from risks to the Greenback and related assets like US Treasuries (still largely the most liquid non-cash asset).Geopolitic events such as the most recent Chinese Military Parade (the largest ever), celebrating the 80 years since the end of WW2 and hosting Vladimir Putin and Kim-Jong Un are also such testaments of the tone changing a little – The next 10 years are going to be interesting.Anyway, let's log in to a few Silver charts, to see what are the bigger picture trends and get levels ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls release. Read More: Markets Already Looking to NFPSilver higher-timeframe technical analysisSilver (XAG) Monthly chart Silver Monthly Chart, September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver is progressively spiking towards the August 2011 highs after breaking the $40 psychological barrier.A Monthly ascending channel comes at a confluence with August 2011 highs ($44 to $44.50) and may act as a longer-timeframe profit-taking area.On the other hand, depending on the global outlook and any further geopolitical/dollar-led tensions, a further breakout above the upper bound is possible towards a retest of the previous ATH (still far from now, but holds a decent probability).The Daily picture during 2011 spikes A Daily chart of the April to October 2011 Period – Source: TradingView You can observe on this 2011 look-back how some key areas that will soon be tested either to the upside or downside and should influence upcoming flows for XAG trading.One of the only scenario that would restrain the ongoing rally would be a very strong Non-Farm Payrolls which would lead to huge US Dollar rallies and a consequent profit-taking in metals.For the rest, as expected should maintain the current-trend/consolidation period around the $40 pivot.Any miss should boost Silver's momentum (the extent of the miss will influence the extent of the rally)The current Daily picture with the 2011 support/resistance levels Silver Daily chart (current trading), September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver has recently broken out of its weekly channel, indicating how strong the current trend is. The end-August to beginning September moves have been surprising.Tomorrow's release and the September FOMC will shape up future demand for metals and will have huge influence on upcoming flows.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:$41.45 recent highs$42 psychological level$43 to $44 potential resistanceAugust 2011 $44.25 topSupport Levels:$39.50 to $40 key pivot zoneSupport 38 to $38.52012 Highs Support around 37.50Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The British pound has edged lower on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3177, down 0.19% on the day.The pound has been busy and moved higher on Wednesday, with gains of 0.42%. This followed massive losses of 1.1% a day earlier, after UK gilts surged to a 27-year high. Bank of England Governor Bailey testified before the Treasury Committee hearings on Wednesday. Bailey said that he expected interest rates would continue to move "downwards gradually over time" but that there was "considerably more doubt" as to when the BoE would lower rates.Members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee are split over monetary policy. MPC member Alan Taylor, who joined Bailey at today's hearing, said he favors four or five rate cuts a year, a much more dovish stance than Bailey. Taylor also said that the UK economy was heading for a 'soft landing' but was fragile.The BoE is stuck between a rock and a hard place, as the economy is weak and could use a rate cut, but inflation has accelerated and hit 3.8%, close to double the BoE's target of 2%. Last month, the BoE had to go through two rounds of voting before deciding to cut rates after a close 5-4 vote. The BoE meets next on September 18.The US releases a key non-farm payroll report on Friday, ahead of the Fed meeting on September 17. The market estimate stands at 75 thousand, almost unchanged from the July gain of 73 thousand, which was well below expectations. Another weak reading would likely lead to voices calling for the Fed to deliver a jumbo half-point cut at the upcoming meeting.GBP/USD Technical GBPUSD has pushed below support at 1.3441 and tested 1.3422 earlier. The next support level is 1.3404There is resistance at 1.3459 and 1.3478 GBPUSD 4-Hour Chart, September 4, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.