SPX Order-Flow & Technical Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (Sep 4, 2025)Hello traders and investors, before the NFP is out in a few hours, we start out with looking at the data of the SPX as of yesterday's close. We follow up with a S&P 500 futures analysis, at the bottom of this page, according to the tradeCompass methodology. Let's dive in to the SPX firstSPX is bullish above: 6510.8–6511.0 (clear acceptance above today’s high) SPX is bearish below: 6507.5 Primary bias: Slight bearish tiltPartial targets (both directions): VWAP (intraday “fair value”) Developing POC (volume profile magnet) Value Area High / Value Area Low (today’s VAH/VAL)Market context & directional biasSpot: 6,502.09 at the close of 04 Sept (yesterday).Options order flow: Net option delta ≈ –2,133, with bearish pressure –35,949 vs bullish +33,816 deltas → a mild negative on-balance read.Weighted averages: Bullish W‑Avg 6509.09 vs Bearish W‑Avg 6509.16 → tight balance around 6509.1–6509.2 (micro pivot).Backdrop: Technical label shows Uptrend and 30‑day IV 11.8 (subdued). Put OI > Call OI on the snapshot, which slightly leans defensive, but intraday execution still hinges on the thresholds above.Takeaway: We’re hovering at a micro‑pivot (~6509.1–6509.2) with a small bearish skew in option delta. Momentum confirmation is needed: strength only if price can accept above 6510.8–6511.0; weakness confirmed below 6507.5.Options market on SPX tells us that...Yesterday’s net option delta –2,133 with nearly equal bullish/bearish weighted averages says balance with a bearish edge. Combine this with price acceptance around 6511/6507.5 to time entries; don’t rely on order flow alone—let price confirm.Now let's dive into the S&P 500 Futures Analysis for TodayS&P 500 Futures Market Context & Directional BiasS&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) marked a fresh all-time high in pre-market trading, but momentum has stalled as the market awaits today’s non-farm payrolls report. Historically, in the hours before a major data release, range-bound behavior is common as traders reduce exposure.At the time of writing, ES is trading near 6,525, sitting just under today’s Value Area High (6,527.75). The fair value zone is anchored around the VWAP at 6,521.95 and POC at 6,521.75. On the downside, today’s Value Area Low sits at 6,518.75, while yesterday’s value levels cluster below at 6,516.50 (VAH) and 6,511 (POC).This tight structure suggests most breakout attempts are likely to fade until NFP provides direction. The tradeCompass map therefore emphasizes controlled, short-range targets with risk management front and center.S&P 500 Futures Key Levels & Partial-Profit Strategy for Today (05 Sept, 2025)Bearish scenarios (below 6,527):First reaction level at 6,522 (VWAP zone), where fair value often acts as a magnet.Next pause expected around 6,519 (just above VAL), likely to attract liquidity.Additional downside checkpoint at 6,517, near today’s low-volume edge.Further extension possible to 6,514.5, a liquidity pocket linked to yesterday’s highs.Deeper bearish probe may touch 6,511.5, just above yesterday’s POC.Bullish scenarios (above 6,535):First upside target at 6,540, a logical extension point.Continuation into 6,545, testing early breakout enthusiasm.If momentum sustains, possible stretch toward 6,550.Educational Insight: Why VWAP, Value Area, and POC MatterFor intraday traders, these reference points are not arbitrary.VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): Reflects where the bulk of trading has occurred relative to volume. Prices gravitating back to VWAP signal reversion to perceived fair value.Value Area (VAH/VAL): Defines the 70% zone of trading activity. Price tends to oscillate within these bounds unless strong directional pressure emerges.Point of Control (POC): The single price level with the highest traded volume, often acting as a magnet intraday.Together, these metrics help traders recognize when price is likely to mean-revert versus when genuine imbalance emerges. The tradeCompass methodology integrates them into clear bullish and bearish thresholds, simplifying decision-making in complex market conditions.S&P 500 Futures Trade Management Reminders (...according to the tradeCompass methodology)One trade per direction at a time within tradeCompass.Take partial profits as levels are hit and move stops to entry after the second target.Stops should not be placed beyond the opposite threshold (e.g., don’t hold shorts if price sustains above 6,535).Stay flexible: range days can turn into trend days if NFP sparks a decisive break.Outlook Beyond NFPWhile today’s map is focused on intraday ranges, traders should keep in mind that a negative NFP shock could shift the bias. Below 6,485 (yesterday’s VWAP), downside swing targets emerge at 6,450 (round number liquidity pool) and 6,439 (September 3rd VAL).Remember, in just one month, we went from one extreme to the next in terms of expectations. This could trigger huge moves... DisclaimerThis analysis is for decision support only. It is not financial advice. Futures trading involves significant risk, and traders should evaluate their own risk tolerance before acting. Always trade at your own risk and adapt to evolving market conditions. Visit investingLive.com for additional views This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.6%GDP Q2 y/y +1.5% vs +1.4% expectedPrior +1.5%GDP components evolved in the second quarter of 2025 as follows:household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU (after +0.3% in both areas),government final consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU (after -0.1% and -0.2% respectively),gross fixed capital formation decreased by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.7% in the EU (after +2.7% and +2.3% respectively),exports decreased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU (after +2.2% and +1.9% respectively), andimports were stable in the euro area and increased by 0.3% in the EU (after +2.2% and +1.9% respectively).This is old news as markets are always focused on the next 6/12 months. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.6% (revised to +0.7%)Retail sales Y/Y +1.8% vs +1.0% prior (revised to +1.1%)The agency notes: "In the three months to July, retail sales grew by 0.6% in value and by 0.1% in volume compared with the previous three-month period.""Compared with July 2024, retail sales rose by 2.8% in large-scale distribution, by 0.6% in small-scale retail and by 0.9% in non-store sales. Online sales grew by 2.9% year-on-year.""Among non-food products, year-on-year trends were mixed across categories. The largest increase was recorded in Cosmetic and toilet articles (+3.7%), while the sharpest decline was seen in Electric household appliances, audio-video equipment (-3.1%)." This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -32.8This is not a market-moving release. Consumer confidence has been improving steadily since the April's lows but started to slip again from June onwards. The very high tariffs Trump slapped on Switzerland might be a big part of the problem. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -€7.62 billion (revised to -€7.16 billion)This comes as exports increased to €52.1 billion vs € 50.8 billion prior, and imports fell to €57.7 billion vs 58.0 billion prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

We have open dialogue with Trump.Have not yet spoken with Trump.On military contingents in Ukraine says that Russia assumes they will be legal targets for strikes.I see no sense in their deployment in Ukraine if there is peace deal.Russia will abide by agreements on Ukraine.We see Kiev is asking for contacts, I am ready for contacts, but see no big sense.We are ready for summit with Ukraine, please come to Russia, we will provide security.The best place for this is Moscow.Ukraine's potential membership in EU is its legal right.Ukraine's potential membership in NATO is completely unacceptable for Russia.Hopes for a peace deal continue to crumble. Russia recently rejected any situation where foreign troops would be stationed in Ukraine to provide security guarantees, which has been one of the key requests for a peace deal from Western countries. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -1.0% (revised to -0.2%)The agency notes: "When large-scale orders are excluded, new orders were 0.7% higher than in the previous month. The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders in the period from May 2025 to July 2025 were 0.2% higher than in the previous three months""The negative development of new orders in manufacturing in July 2025 compared with June 2025 was primarily attributable to the substantial decline (-38.6%) in new orders in the "manufacture of other transport equipment" sector (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles)." This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.9% (revised to +0.3%)Retail sales +1.1% vs +1.3% y/y expectedPrior +1.7% (revised to +0.9%)Retail sales ex autos, fuel +0.5% vs +0.4% m/m expectedPrior +0.6% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +1.3% vs +1.2% y/y expectedPrior +1.8% (revised to +1.3%)The agency notes: "The quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in the three months to July 2025 when compared with the three months to April 2025. This decline follows four months of consecutive three-month on three-month growth.""Non-store retailers and clothing stores sales volumes grew strongly in July 2025, which retailers attributed to new products, good weather, and an increase resulting from the UEFA Women’s EURO 2025 tournament."Overall, this report won't change anything for the BoE as their focus switched more towards inflation which is where they are missing by a lot. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 105.6Coincident index 113.3 vs 116.7 prior This is not a market-moving indicator but there's been a slight improvement in the leading index. We've also seen improvement in the Japanese PMIs recently and wage growth. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda as the only notable economic release will be the UK Retail Sales data. The data is not going to change anything for the BoE at this point though, and given that we have the NFP today, the market might not react to it too much. We have also the final Eurozone Q2 GDP report but this is very old data and won't matter at all for the market.In the American session, the focus will turn to the Canadian jobs data and the US NFP report. It goes without saying that all eyes will be on the NFP report as it will have a much bigger repercussion on interest rates expectations and global markets. For the NFP, the consensus sees 75K jobs added in August vs 73K in July. This isn't a low number because with lower labour supply under Trump's policies, the breakeven rate of job creation has fallen below 100K (50K-80K) according to most estimates. The breakeven rate is how much jobs the economy needs to create to keep the unemployment rate stable. Speaking of the unemployment rate, the consensus sees an uptick to 4.3% vs 4.2% prior. Looking at wage growth figures, the Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 3.7% vs 3.9% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.3% prior. Finally, the Average Weekly Hours worked are seen at 34.3 vs. 34.3 prior.For the Canadian jobs report, the consensus sees 10K jobs added in August vs -40.8K in July, and the unemployement rate to tick higher to 7.0% vs 6.9% prior. The NFP will steal the show, but a weak report might increase the expectations for a BoC rate cut at the September meeting already. Right now, the market sees a 64% probability for a cut. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD: 1.1600 (EUR2.64bn)1.1550 (EUR1.69bn)1.1800 (EUR1.27bn)USD/JPY: 146.00 (US$2.36bn)147.00 (US$1.12bn)144.45 (US$766m)AUD/USD: 0.6400 (AUD1.12bn)0.6500 (AUD1.09bn)0.6600 (AUD1.02bn)USD/CAD: 1.3860 (US$743.8mn)1.3850 (US$556mn)1.3730 (US$495mn)For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The dollar softened ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report as Fed’s Goolsbee kept September’s meeting “live.” The yen outperformed after strong wage and spending data bolstered the case for a Bank of Japan hike, while Japanese auto stocks gained on tariff relief. Asia-Pacific equities mostly advanced and U.S. yields eased.Japan’s wages surge in July as real pay rises for first time since December - recapCanada postpones EV sales target to 2026, citing strain on automakers from tariffsThe US dollar is broadly falling in Asia tradeING flags October BoJ hike on rising pay, sees politics and tariffs as key risksPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1064 (vs. estimate at 7.1390)President Trump’s son Eric says he'll be making “a big announcement” Friday.Oil falls before OPEC+ output decision as U.S. crude stocks surprise with sharp buildUS Treasuries yields dripping back to their lowest since May this yearOpenAI set to start mass production of its own AI chips with BroadcomTrump warned of 100% tariffs on foreign chip imports unless firms build in U.S.Trump has done a masterful job - headlines proclaim lower tariffs on Japanese autos!Japan July data. Real wages +0.5% y/y. Household spending +1.4% y/y (exp 2.3%)Fed's Goolsbee says there is a bit of wait and see because of uncertaintyTrump prepares to start North American trade deal renegotiation - Wall Street JournalJPMorgan sees gold as key hedge as Fed independence fears reshape market positioningBank of America forecasts euro to hit $1.25, says U.S. dollar risks undervaluationGoldman Sachs forecast gold as high as US$5,000 / ozUBS says U.S. equities remain attractive despite lofty valuationsinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap: ISM services a touch strong, ADP a touch softTrump has finally signed the US-Japan trade agreementS&P 500 nearly touches the all-time record into the closeFriday's non-farm payrolls report is a nightmare to tradeThe dollar traded on the back foot ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report (0830 ET). Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee struck a cautious tone, saying the September FOMC meeting is “live” and that he has yet to decide on a cut.The yen outperformed as Japanese data beat expectations. Real wages rose for the first time since December, total cash earnings posted their fastest increase in seven months, and household spending rose for a third straight month. The figures bolstered the case for a nearer-term Bank of Japan rate hike.Japanese auto stocks advanced after President Trump signed an executive order capping U.S. tariffs on the sector at 15%, lifting sentiment.In corporate news, the Financial Times reported that OpenAI is preparing to design and produce its own AI chips with Broadcom from 2026.U.S. Treasuries edged higher, with yields slipping slightly. Asia-Pacific equities mostly gained. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) +0.9%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +0.5%Shanghai Composite +0.25%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) +0.3%Gold is back above US$3550. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan data earlier:Japan July data. Real wages +0.5% y/y. Household spending +1.4% y/y (exp 2.3%)Boosting the prospect of a Bank of Japan rate hike:ING flags October BoJ hike on rising pay, sees politics and tariffs as key risksJapan’s nominal wages rose 4.1% in July from a year earlier, accelerating from June’s revised 3.1% gain and beating economists’ 3% forecast, according to labour ministry data released Friday. It was the strongest increase since December. Real cash earnings also turned positive for the first time in seven months, climbing 0.5% versus expectations for a 0.6% decline. “The results of this survey show that the domestic economy is at least positive,” said Kohei Okazaki, chief market economist at Nomura Securities. “This increases confidence that domestic demand will remain solid even if some external shocks occur going forward.” “Even if some of the increase is due to bonuses, the fact is that incomes are increasing,” Okazaki said. “I think we are beginning to see signs of wages increasing, albeit gradually, and linking this to consumption.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Canada will delay its plan to require automakers to meet minimum electric vehicle sales targets by 2026, in a move aimed at easing pressure on an industry hit hard by tariffs.Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government is expected to announce the change Friday as part of a broader package of measures supporting sectors most exposed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war, according to people familiar with the matter says Bloomberg (gated).Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had introduced rules mandating that at least 20% of new vehicle sales be zero-emission by the 2026 model year. Instead of enforcing that target, the government will now review the “electric vehicle availability standard” to ensure it does not place excessive burdens on carmakers, the people said. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The US dollar is losing ground broadly during the session here. I posted on some support from JPY a few minutes ago:ING flags October BoJ hike on rising pay, sees politics and tariffs as key risksBut the bigger picture view is the USD weakness is not about the BoJ and the yen, its broader. You don't have to loo too far a narrative to support a view for a lower dollar, and for today such a narrative is in the drivers seat. EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP .... well just about everything, up against the USD. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Strong wage growth bolsters case for October BoJ rate hike:Japan July data. Real wages +0.5% y/y. Household spending +1.4% y/y (exp 2.3%) The yen rose after the data. Today's data out of Japan has reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates as soon as October, ING said in a note on Friday.Labour cash earnings rose 4.1% year-on-year in July, accelerating from 3.1% in June and topping consensus forecasts of 3.0%. Bonus pay jumped 7.9%, while base pay climbed 2.6%. Real wages, adjusted for inflation, also turned positive for the first time since December, rising 0.5% y/y. Household spending gained 1.4% y/y in July—below forecasts but marking a third consecutive increaseING highlighted that Japan’s minimum wage is set for its biggest ever rise, to ¥1,121 from ¥1,055, which should help underpin wage momentum and sustain inflationary pressures. “We continue to believe the BoJ will deliver a 25bp hike in October,” the bank wrote, citing the stronger wage backdrop and resilient GDP growth in the first half of the year.Political and trade risks remain, however. President Trump on Thursday signed an executive order cementing the 15% tariff agreement between the U.S. and Japan, providing some trade clarity but underscoring ongoing external pressures. Domestically, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces potential leadership challenges within the ruling LDP, which could inject political uncertainty into financial markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.Previous close was 7.1401PBOC injected 188.3bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%net 594.6bn drain yuan---Earlier news via the China Securities Journal:PBoC may inject reasonably ample liquidity into the money markets this monthWhich is interesting news indeed. This week the Bank withdrew a net 1.2tln yuan from the banking system in open market operations, the biggest withdrawal in 2 months. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

President Trump’s son Eric says he'll be making “a big announcement” Friday.I'm guessing crypto related. This seems to be where the family is harvesting substantial amounts of money from. Only a guess though. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil prices extended their decline, by a tiny margin, for a third straight session on Friday as traders awaited an OPEC+ meeting this weekend that could decide on fresh output hikes. Eight OPEC members and partners including Russia are set to discuss raising production in October, sources told Reuters. Such a move would begin unwinding an additional 1.65 million barrels per day of output cuts—about 1.6% of global demand—more than a year ahead of schedule.The market also absorbed a surprise U.S. crude inventory build of 2.4 million barrels last week, versus expectations for a 2-million-barrel draw, as refineries entered maintenance season. The API reported a smaller stock increase of around 600,000 barrels. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fixed interest moves still swinging:10 year UST yield around 4.1569%, its lowest since May 12 year circa 3.5837%, ditto on lowest since May 1 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.