Summary:Finance ministry flags heightened FX volatility and readiness to actOfficials argue won moves don’t reflect fundamentalsVerbal intervention aims to deter one-way/speculative momentumEquity-inflow measures flagged to improve capital flow balanceStructural flow pressures mean rhetoric may limit swings, not “fix” KRWSouth Korea’s finance ministry has stepped up its verbal warning on the won, saying the FX market is showing heightened volatility, that recent moves are far from Korea’s economic fundamentals, and that authorities stand ready to deploy stabilisation measures swiftly if needed. Alongside the FX message, the ministry also flagged plans to encourage investment into local equities, a familiar “two-track” approach aimed at easing currency pressure by improving capital inflows while leaning against disorderly price action.The timing matters. The won has been trading at historically weak levels versus the dollar in recent months, with policymakers repeatedly pointing to structural supply–demand imbalances in the FX market, notably persistent demand for dollars tied to overseas investment flows, rather than a sudden deterioration in macro fundamentals. This framing helps authorities justify intervention language without ,conceding that the underlying economy is weakening.So why talk now? Verbal intervention is often used to slow one-way momentum, deter speculative positioning, and remind markets that the government and the Bank of Korea are monitoring conditions closely. Recent reporting has shown officials explicitly worried about “speculative trading” and “herd-like behaviour,” and officials have emphasised coordinated action between the finance ministry and the central bank.The “encourage equity investment” line is not incidental. Seoul has previously discussed tax incentives and market-friendly reforms designed to draw longer-term domestic and foreign capital into Korean stocks, a policy lever that can support the won by improving the balance of flows, while also addressing the long-standing “Korea discount” narrative.Implications: near term, the rhetoric is KRW-supportive at the margin, especially if markets were leaning toward a disorderly move. But without a shift in the underlying flow story, rate differentials, hedging demand, and outbound investment, verbal guidance alone typically caps volatility rather than reversing trends. For equities, the signalling reinforces a pro-market policy bias, but delivery (tax details, access reforms, incentives) will matter more than words. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:PBOC rolls CNY 1.1tn via three-month outright reverse repos Structure uses fixed quantity, multi-price bidding Signals liquidity stability, not necessarily new net easingSupports early-year bond issuance and credit supply narrative Aligns with broader 2026 stance: keep liquidity ample---The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 1.1-trillion-yuan (about 157 billion U.S. dollars) outright reverse repo operation on Thursday. As 1.1 trillion yuan of three-month outright reverse repos are set to mature in January, the move represents a rollover of the same amount.Xinhua (state media in China) with the report. ---The PBOC’s decision to run a CNY 1.1tn three-month “outright reverse repo” operation is best read as a liquidity-management rollover, not a fresh “big easing” signal, but it still matters for rates, bonds and the policy narrative at the start of the year.Mechanically, the central bank said it will conduct the operation via fixed-quantity, interest-rate bidding with multiple winning price levels, and a three-month tenor. The key detail is that CNY 1.1tn of three-month outright reverse repos mature in January, meaning this operation rolls the same amount, helping the PBOC keep funding conditions stable as seasonal cash demand and government financing needs rise. So why do it? First, early-year conditions in China often come with heavier government bond issuance and shifting liquidity needs across banks and non-banks. A clean rollover helps avoid a funding squeeze, supports orderly bond-market functioning, and helps institutions maintain credit supply, the explanation offered by a domestic analyst cited in the report. Second, the form of the tool is meaningful: the PBOC has been broadening its toolkit and leaning more on market-based auction mechanisms (multiple-price bidding) to guide liquidity, rather than relying on one “headline” facility. Reuters has described similar multi-price, fixed-quantity auctions as part of an effort to let market pricing play a larger role while still steering system liquidity.Implications:Rates/bonds: A rollover should be neutral-to-supportive for near-term money-market stability and can help keep government bond issuance running smoothly.Policy signalling: It fits with the broader “supportive / moderately loose” stance officials have been messaging into 2026, including stated intent to use tools (RRR and rates) to maintain ample liquidity.FX: Because this is a rollover rather than a net injection, it’s less likely to be read as an aggressive easing shock to the yuan on its own, though it reinforces the bias toward accommodation if growth/inflation remain soft.Bottom line: the PBOC is aiming to remove liquidity cliffs and smooth funding through Q1, keeping policy supportive without necessarily “flooding” the system. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Japan real wages fell 2.8% y/y in NovemberSharp drop in bonus payments weighed on incomesNominal wage growth slowed to 0.5% y/yInflation stayed elevated at 3.3%Wage-inflation gap remains a key challenge complicating the Bank of Japan’s tightening path.Japan’s real wages fell sharply in November, marking the steepest decline since January and underscoring the ongoing squeeze on household purchasing power as inflation continues to outpace income growth.Data from Japan's labour ministry showed inflation-adjusted real wages dropped 2.8% year-on-year in November, a deterioration from October’s revised 0.8% fall and the eleventh consecutive monthly decline. The result matched January’s decline and was the weakest outcome since late 2023, highlighting the persistent challenge facing consumers despite gradual progress on base pay growth.The headline weakness was heavily influenced by a sharp fall in special payments, primarily one-off bonuses, which plunged 17% from a year earlier. These payments tend to be volatile outside peak bonus seasons, and officials cautioned that November figures are often understated at the preliminary stage as many winter bonuses have yet to be recorded.Nominal wages reflected the same pattern. Average total cash earnings rose just 0.5% year-on-year to ¥310,202, the slowest pace of growth since December 2021. While this points to softness in headline pay, underlying wage trends were more stable. Regular pay, or base salaries, increased 2.0%, easing from October but remaining broadly consistent with recent months. Overtime pay rose 1.2%, signalling modest but continued activity in the private sector.Inflation, however, remains firmly elevated. Consumer prices rose 3.3% in November, well above wage growth and continuing to erode real incomes. The inflation measure used in the wage data includes fresh food prices but excludes rents, meaning real-wage pressure remains pronounced even as some cost components stabilise.The data present a dilemma for the Bank of Japan, which raised its policy rate to a 30-year high of 0.75% last month and has signalled further tightening if wage momentum strengthens. Policymakers continue to look ahead to annual spring wage negotiations, with Japan’s largest union group targeting pay rises of at least 5% this year — a key test for whether inflation can be sustained alongside real income growth. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Data post only, I'll be back with details separately.Real Cash Earnings -2.8% y/yexpected -1.2%, prior -0.8%Overtime Pay +1.20% y/yexpected +1.4%, prior +1.5%Average Cash Earnings +0.5% y/yexpected +2.3%, prior +2.6% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Rubio to meet Danish officials next week over Greenland tensionsTrump’s renewed interest in acquiring Greenland alarms alliesU.S. military option not ruled out, raising NATO concernsEuropean leaders reaffirm Greenland’s sovereigntyGreenland’s strategic value intensifies geopolitical fault linesU.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed he will meet with Danish officials next week amid sharply rising tensions over Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark that has suddenly become a focal point in U.S.–European relations. The announcement comes as the Biden administration’s successor government under President Donald Trump has reiterated a long-standing, controversial desire to gain control of the Arctic island, a move that has alarmed Denmark, Greenland and NATO allies.Trump’s interest in Greenland, which dates back to his first presidential term, is rooted in strategic military considerations and broader competition with Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic. Recent U.S. military action in Venezuela, including the capture of Nicolás Maduro, has amplified European concerns that Washington could pursue similarly forceful tactics in other theatres. White House officials have not ruled out using military power to achieve their goals, a statement that has drawn rare, unified European warnings about the risks of undermining international norms and alliance cohesion. Denmark’s Prime Minister has made clear that any U.S. attempt to take over Greenland would amount to an existential threat to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, arguing that annexation of a NATO ally’s territory would effectively end the alliance. Leaders from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the U.K. have backed Denmark’s position, emphasizing that Greenland “belongs to its people” and should remain under Danish and Greenlandic authority. Rubio, speaking to reporters, did not explicitly rule out the possibility of force but reiterated that the U.S. administration prefers diplomatic engagement. He noted that every president retains the option to address national security threats through various means, including military action if deemed necessary. The dispute underscores deeper geopolitical fault lines over Arctic security, alliance obligations and respect for sovereignty. As Denmark and Greenland seek talks, all eyes are on next week’s meeting, which could determine whether diplomatic channels can contain a crisis with potentially far-reaching implications for NATO’s future. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Goldman expects silver volatility to remain extremeThin London inventories amplifying price movesPre-positioning drained liquidity despite tariff exemptionsDemand sensitivity has risen sharply amid tight supplyChina export controls risk further market fragmentationGoldman Sachs expects extreme volatility in silver prices to persist after the metal posted an extraordinary rally in 2025, warning that thin inventories at the London bullion hub have fundamentally altered market dynamics.Silver surged around 138% last year, driven by a combination of strong private investor inflows, expectations of Federal Reserve easing, and growing demand for portfolio diversification. Goldman argues, however, that the magnitude of recent price swings cannot be explained by demand alone. Instead, the bank points to a structural liquidity squeeze in London, where global benchmark prices are set, that has amplified even modest shifts in positioning.According to Goldman, speculation around potential U.S. trade measures throughout 2025 prompted market participants to pre-position physical silver into the United States, despite the metal ultimately being exempted from tariffs in April. That flow drained inventories from London vaults, leaving the market far more sensitive to changes in demand. As a result, price elasticity has increased sharply: whereas 1,000 tonnes of weekly net demand would typically lift prices by roughly 2%, Goldman estimates the same flow now moves prices closer to 7%.The bank says this inventory tightness has created fertile conditions for squeeze-like behaviour, helping to explain the outsized price swings seen in recent months. While silver-backed ETFs have benefited from the rally, Goldman stresses that the volatility cuts both ways and cautions clients against extrapolating recent gains.Looking ahead, the bank flags additional risks to market stability. China’s move to introduce export controls on silver shipments from January adds another layer of fragmentation, potentially further constraining supply and exacerbating volatility, even if U.S. trade policy uncertainty fades.Goldman’s conclusion is blunt: until inventories rebuild and liquidity normalises, silver prices are likely to remain highly reactive, with sharp moves both higher and lower, favouring volatility-tolerant investors while posing challenges for those seeking stable exposure. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia's national broadcaster, the ABC, will carry an interview with RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser "later this morning".There is no further indication re the time of this, so I guess we all just stay tuned. As you'll see in the screenshot, Hauser will be speaking after yesterday's inflation data and ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on February 2 and 3. Australian inflation cooled more than expected in November, offering some short-term relief to households, but persistent underlying pressures have kept the risk of another interest-rate hike firmly in play.Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed headline consumer prices were flat month-on-month in November, while annual inflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.8%. The softer outcome undershot market expectations and was largely driven by aggressive Black Friday discounting in clothing, footwear, furnishings and homewares. Prices for recreation and culture also eased as post-holiday travel demand faded.Despite the moderation in headline inflation, core price pressures remain sticky. The trimmed mean, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred underlying gauge, rose 0.3% on the month, leaving annual core inflation at 3.2%, still above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. Housing costs rose a firm 1.1% in November, led by rents and new dwelling prices, while food and transport costs also remained elevated. Electricity prices surged nearly 20% over the year following the expiry of government rebates.Markets took the data largely in stride. The Australian dollar briefly dipped before stabilising near USD 0.67, while bond markets ended little changed. Investors continue to price roughly a one-in-three chance that the RBA will lift rates again at its February meeting.Economists are divided on the policy implications. Some argue the economy is operating near capacity, pointing to still-tight labour conditions and resilient wage growth. Others caution that November’s inflation relief may prove temporary once holiday discounts wash out and warn that hiking too early risks compounding a slowdown.Recent labour-market data has added nuance to the debate, with employment falling sharply in November, the largest monthly decline since early 2025, suggesting wage-driven inflation pressures may be easing. Much now hinges on upcoming labour data and the December-quarter CPI report due later this month, which the RBA weights more heavily than the newer monthly series.Until then, the central bank faces a delicate balancing act between easing headline inflation and stubborn domestic cost pressures.FWIW while there are accelerating calls for an RBA rate hike on February 3 I'm tipping 'on hold'. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US President Donald Trump has been talking about improving housing affordability for awhile and he might finally be taking steps in that direction. He wrote on Truth Social:For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream. It was the reward for working hard, and doing the right thing, but now, because of the Record High Inflation caused by Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress, that American Dream is increasingly out of reach for far too many people, especially younger Americans. It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. People live in homes, not corporations. I will discuss this topic, including further Housing and Affordability proposals, and more, at my speech in Davos in two weeks.This is something that housing advocates and young people have been incresingly agitated by. Imaging trying to buy a home to start a family and finding out you were outbid by private equity.Blackstone has been piling into this business and shares initially fell 8% on the headlines but have recovered to -4.5%.Part of the reason for the recovery is that this is likely another case of smoke and mirrors. The President has very limited authority to do this unilaterally.Property law is largely state based so even badgering Congress would have limited effects. So the idea of 'banning' corporate ownership is fanciful. On the regulatory side, he could tighten rules of federally-backed mortgages or work with Fannie/Freddie. That might make it more expensive for institutions to buy single family homes but it's certainly not a ban. Congress could try for some tax laws but it would be tough constitutionally to do anything with securities laws or interstate commerce.In short, BTD. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

A middling start for US stock markets has turned into a solid gain, with the S&P 500 up 0.25% to a record 6964. The Nasdaq is leading the way today, up 0.7% to 23718, which is still shy of November's record at just above 24,000.The Russell 2000 has been the standout performer so far this year but it's trailing today at -0.1%.The big-cap winner today is Intel, which is up 8% as it's embraced by meme-stock traders on the expectation that it's been deemed a 'winner' by the White House with the administration taking a 10% stake in the company. It's also a potential AI winner if it can figure out how to manufacture chips competitively again. CarMax is in the silver medal posiotion today, up 5.2%. That rally hasn't come on any news Iv'e seen but today's ISM services number was good and that should translate into solid consumer spending. Treasury yields are also lower, which is a good sign for borrowing costs.In third place is American Airlines. I've been touting airlines as an investment and Jeffries is out with an interesting report. The argue that the single "airline cycle" is dead. Instead, the industry is operating in two disconnected realities based on the customer base they serve. The report titled "K-Shaped Economy, K-Shaped Airline Strategies," argues that the airline industry has bifurcated into two distinct tracks, where wealthier consumers continue to spend while lower-income consumers pull back. American isn't as 'premium' as Delta and United but it can claw into that segment while Spirit and other discount carriers will struggle to attach premium and business travellers. Other top gainers today are Palo Alto Networks and Eli Lilly, both up about 4.5%.A loser today is First Solar, which is down 9.7%. Yesterday, I noted the name as a potential winner if the US Supreme Court upholds tariffs. That it's falling suggests the market sees the Supreme Court ruling against tariffs.I suggest reading the report: The Supreme Court scheduled Friday as an 'opinion day'. What's the tradeAnother loser is Western Digital, which is down 9.5% after yesterday's memestock frenzy/short squeeze based on memory names.Seagate is also struggling.Finally, energy names are lower and have largely given up the Venezuela gains aside from the refiners. A sober second thought is showing that it's going to be costly and difficult to get oil out of Venezuela any time soon.In terms of the small-cap outperformance story, here is a notable chart from Scotia: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It’s the start of the year and that means index rebalancing flows. A big one on the radar right now is the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), and the flows this year are large.Scotiabank is out with a note breaking down the flows, which start tomorrow and run through Jan 14, with 20% of the buying/selling done each day.As usual, this is a case of 'sell the winners, buy the losers', which is something we're not-coincidentally seeing in other markets as well. Because precious metals ripped higher last year while crude oil struggled, the index has to adjust back to target weights. That means selling what went up and buying what went down.Breakdown of the estimated flows:The Sells:Silver: A massive $7.1 billion for saleGold: $7.0 billion hitting the marketCombined, that is over $14 billion in notional selling pressure hitting the precious metals complex over five days. Scotiabank notes that while volume in silver has been high recently (thanks to new all-time highs), this trade still represents about 17% of open interest on March futures.I don't think this was a surprise but maybe it helps s to explain some of the selling in silver today.The Buys:Brent crude:+$3.6 billion (58k contracts)WTI crude:+$2.4 billion (42k contracts).Cocoa:+$2.2 billion.Sugar:+$1.3 billion.Watch out for CocoaThe most crowded trade relative to the market might actually be in Cocoa. It’s returning to the benchmark index for the first time since 2005. The buying flow there represents 56% of open interest and 2.8x the average daily volume. Expect some real volatility there in a market that's been unusually quiet lately.The takeawayUsually, you’d expect this kind of supply overhang to crush gold and silver prices. However, Scotiabank takes a different view. They argue that fundamentals remain a tailwind for metals and suggest buying on any weakness caused by these flows.On the flip side, they are bearish on Crude despite the buying pressure, citing excess supply capacity and a sluggish demand outlook.The rebalancing begins at the close on Thursday. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -1934KGasoline +7702K vs +3186K expDistillates +5594K vs +2109K expThe private data released late yesterday showed:Crude -2.8mGasoline +4.4mDistillates +4.9mGiven the private numbers, the official report isn't a big surprise but it's still bearish. Yes, there was a headline draw in crude but those are big builds in products that are going to weigh on crude demand going forward.WTI crude oil is down 80-cents to $56.34 today. IT touched as low as $55.76 today, which is the lowest since Dec 17 and close to last year's low of $55.00.For background:The EIA weekly crude oil report—formally the US Energy Information Administration’s “weekly petroleum status report”—is one of the most market-moving snapshots of near-term oil fundamentals. Released weekly, it estimates changes in US crude oil inventories (commercial stocks), often with special focus on the cushing, oklahoma delivery hub for wti, plus key balances like imports, exports, and refinery utilization. Traders also watch the supply side: estimated domestic crude production, adjustments tied to measurement/timing issues, and flows into or out of the strategic petroleum reserve when applicable.Importantly, the report doesn’t just cover crude. It includes gasoline and distillate inventories, refinery runs, and “product supplied” figures that function as a real-time proxy for demand. Because the US is both a major producer and exporter, swings in net exports or refinery runs can dominate the weekly crude stock change, so markets look through the headline build/draw to the drivers underneath.The numbers are estimates based on weekly surveys and statistical techniques, so they can be noisy and occasionally revised as more complete data arrives, but the report remains a key, high-frequency read on whether the physical market is tightening or loosening. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Market Focus: Gold Futures (GC) – February 2026 Contract at 01/07/2026 @ 3:08pm UTCKey Takeaways for Gold Traders NowInstitutional selling dominates as rallies are consistently faded below VWAP.Opportunity Score: -6 (Bearish) with a clear lower-highs structure and value migration lower.4430 remains the primary downside magnet if the current consolidation breaks.4454–4460 is the sell-rally zone, while 4468 (VWAP) is the key invalidation level.The Bear Flag Reality for Gold TodayGold futures remain under persistent distribution pressure. What looked like bullish intraday recoveries were repeatedly met by aggressive selling, revealing a market controlled by institutions unloading into strength rather than accumulating on weakness.Our Opportunity Score sits at -6, reflecting a bearish environment defined by lower highs, a downward-shifting value area, and repeated VWAP rejection. While price has temporarily stabilized near 4436, order flow behavior suggests this is consolidation rather than a durable base. Structurally, the market resembles a bear flag, favoring continuation toward 4430, a key liquidity node.The Morning Narrative: Anatomy of a TrapUnderstanding the current setup requires dissecting how today’s session unfolded. Two distinct events highlight how retail traders were trapped while larger players stayed in control.1. The Fake Breakout Above 4454 (08:42 AM)Early strength attracted breakout buyers as price surged through 4454 on rising volume.What it looked like: A bullish continuation to casual chart readers.What order flow showed: Heavy passive selling absorbed aggressive buying at the highs.Outcome: Once buying pressure faded, price slipped back below resistance, leaving late buyers trapped.This type of action is classic distribution, not accumulation.2. The Liquidity Vacuum Breakdown (09:35 AM)After a brief pause, selling accelerated.Key event: A high-volume liquidation candle decisively broke 4450.Why price fell fast: Below that level, volume profile revealed little prior trade interest. With no structural support, price dropped swiftly to 4436, creating what professionals call a liquidity vacuum.Educational Corner: How Institutions Reveal ThemselvesToday’s session is a textbook example of how to distinguish fakeouts from genuine accumulation.What a Fakeout Looks LikeHigh volume, little progress: Large volume on green candles with long upper wicks. This is churn, signaling absorption by sellers.No structural support: Rallies lacked resting buy orders underneath. When aggressive buyers paused, price fell quickly.What Real Accumulation Would Look LikeAbsorption at the lows: High sell volume that fails to push price lower.A concrete floor: Consistent bid support stepping in tick by tick.So far, neither condition has appeared. The bounce back toward 4450 occurred on relatively low volume, pointing to short covering, not fresh institutional buying.Technical Outlook for Gold Futures: Levels That MatterFrom a broader perspective, the 30-minute structure remains decisively bearish, with price holding below VWAP near 4468.1. Downside Target: 4430Why it matters: 4430 is a high-volume node from earlier trade and acts as a liquidity magnet.Scenario: A clean break below 4435 increases the odds of a swift test of 4430.2. Sell-Rally Zone: 4454–4460Former support has flipped into resistance.Bearish confirmation: Rallies into this zone that stall or show negative order flow favor renewed selling pressure.3. Invalidation Level: 4468 (VWAP)Risk management starts with knowing when the thesis is wrong.Bullish reversal condition: Sustained acceptance above 4455 and 4468 VWAP with strong volume.If that occurs: The bearish bias weakens, opening the door toward 4475. Until then, rallies remain suspect.Final Verdict for Gold Traders LiveThe path of least resistance is still down. Current price action suggests consolidation after liquidation, not a durable bottom. As long as gold futures remain below VWAP and fail to attract committed buyers, downside risk toward 4430 stays firmly in play.Bias: BearishPrimary Strategy: Fade rallies into 4450–4454Continuation Trigger: Breakdown below 4435Trader Caution: Avoid chasing shorts at extremes. Let the market confirm rejection at resistance or failure of support. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.2%Factory orders ex transport -0.2% vs +0.2% priorDurable goods orders -2.2% vs -2.2% prelimNondefense capital goods orders ex air +0.5% vs +0.5% prelimThis is a badly dated report due to the US government shutdown. The US factory orders report (officially “manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders”) is a monthly census bureau release that tracks how much US manufacturers receive in new orders, ship out, and hold in inventories. markets watch it as a pulse on goods demand and the manufacturing pipeline, often splitting it into durable goods (long-lasting items like machinery, vehicles, and aircraft) and nondurable goods (short-lived items like food and chemicals). a key feature is that factory orders incorporates and finalizes the prior month’s advance durable goods report: the durable-goods totals and many major categories can be revised, sometimes meaningfully, as more complete company responses arrive. that matters because the headline durable-goods number often drives initial market moves. the factory orders release also adds the nondurable side and provides a fuller picture via shipments and inventories, helping investors gauge momentum, backlog dynamics, and inventory swings. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior month revised: Job openings 7.449M (revised down -221K from 7.670M)JOLTS job openings: 7.145M, that is down -885K YoYJob openings rate: 4.3%, little changedNovember hires were little changed, holding at 5.1MThe hires rate remained steady at 3.2%Hires decreased in:State & local government ex-education (-39K)State & local government education (-31K)Hires increased in:Federal government (+11K)No significant hiring shifts occurred across most major industriesIn November, total separations were unchanged at 5.1M with a 3.2% rateTotal separations decreased in:State & local government ex-education (-27K)Quits were little changed at 3.2M with a 2.0% rateQuits increased in:Accommodation & food services (+208K)Layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.7M with a 1.1% rateLayoffs and discharges decreased in:Accommodation & food services (-107K)Health care & social assistance (-52K)State & local government ex-education (-26K)Other separations were little changed at 232K, marking a series lowEstablishment size:1–9 employees and 5,000+ employees saw little or no change in job openings, hires, or separationsFor the full report, CLICK HERE.The quick takeaway:The November JOLTS report reinforces the theme of a cooling but still orderly labor market, with job openings holding at 7.146M but continuing their clear downtrend year-over-year, signaling reduced labor demand without a sharp deterioration. Hires and total separations both stuck at 5.1M ironically underscore a labor market that is neither accelerating nor cracking (no hire/no fire). However, the quits rate at 2.0%—well below cycle highs—points to diminished worker bargaining power and less confidence in job switching. Importantly for rates markets, layoffs remain contained and other separations hit a series low, arguing against imminent labor stress. For traders, the data supports a “soft-landing” narrative, limiting urgency for aggressive Fed easing near term while keeping the door open for gradual policy normalization if disinflation continues—leaving USD and yields sensitive to upcoming inflation and payroll data rather than JOLTS alone.Looking at yields: 2-year yield 3.465%, -0.8 basis points 10 year yield 4.151%, -2.7 basis points 30 year yield 4.837%, -2.9 basis pointsUS stocks are mixed after the data with:Dow -0.42%S&P index -0.08%NASDAQ index +0.20% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Highest reading since October 2024Business activity index 54.4 vs 52.6 priorEmployment 52.0 vs 48.9New orders57.9 vs 52.9 priorPrices paid 64.3 vs 65.4 priorSupplier deliveries51.8 vs 54.1 priorInventories54.1 vs 54.8 priorBacklog of orders 42.6 vs 49.1 priorNew export orders 54.2 vs 48.7 priorImports 50.3 vs 48.9 priorInventory sentiment 54.1 54.8 priorJustin wrote a great preview for this report earlier. There has been some recovery in this report since September but it's generally been rangebound over the past two years.Comments in the report:“We continue to experience higher prices, primarily due to the impact of the administration’s trade and tariff policies. We are disproportionately impacted by importing seafood from Southeast Asia and coffee from South America.” [Accommodation & Food Services]“In general, business is flat. Value brands are still experiencing higher demand. But premium brands struggle to maintain market share.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]“Rising labor and staffing shortages across facilities and auxiliary services, increasing regulatory and compliance requirements within the state, continued inflationary pressure on supplies and contracted services, ongoing supply-chain variability for specialized equipment and materials, heightened sustainability expectations and state-led environmental initiatives, fluctuations in enrollment affecting institutional budgets and purchasing volumes, and increased competition and pricing volatility in the regional supplier market.” [Educational Services]“Overall, business is healthy, most of our purchasing is staying consistent, and we are renewing most contracts as we head into the new year.” [Finance & Insurance]“Flu cases on the rise; the vaccine is not of much help this year. Respiratory equipment and supplies are seeing a surge in demand.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]“Annual pricing markups from key service and data providers are higher than they’ve been for many years — gradually drives costs up.” [Information]“Continuing uncertainty and apprehension regarding tariffs and the resulting impact on pricing.” [Public Administration]“We expect flat national home prices in 2026, with a forecast of a 0.5-percent increase and a plausible range from a decrease of 3.6 percent to a gain of 4.6 percent. Many metro areas across the country are already posting year-over-year declines, making 2026 the most likely year since 2010 for a modest national price dip.” [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]“High business activity due to the holiday season.” [Transportation & Warehousing]“Year-over-year growth has been coming down for the last three months. Most likely, the government shutdown was a contributor.” [Wholesale Trade] This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The forex market is waffling in narrow trading ranges for the major currency pairs. Looking at the low to high ranges shows:EURUSD 30 pipsGBPUSD 35 pipsUSDJPY 50 pipsUSDCHF 24 pipsUSDCAD 26 pipsAUDUSD 50 pipsNZDUSD 22 pips. That is not a lot of price action to trade. Buyers and sellers are battling in looking for the next shove. In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD (Greg Michalowski and author of Attacking Currency Trends). I outline the key levels in play and define the short-term bias, the risk, and the targets for each of those currency pairs.In Australia, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in softer than expected, reinforcing the narrative of easing upstream inflation pressures. On a month-on-month basis, prices were unchanged at 0.0%, missing expectations for a 0.1% increase. On a year-on-year basis, PPI slowed to 3.4%, below the 3.6% forecast and down from 3.8% previously. The data initially pressured the AUD lower as traders reacted to the weaker inflation signal and its implications for the RBA’s policy outlook.However, that downside reaction proved short-lived. The pair quickly reversed course, with buyers stepping back in and driving price to its highest level since early October, peaking at 0.6766. That rebound suggested a degree of resilience in the broader bullish structure, even in the face of softer domestic data. Since topping out, though, momentum has faded and price has rotated back lower, bringing the focus back to near-term support levels.Currently, the pair is testing highs from last week near 0.67268, a level that now acts as an important short-term pivot. A sustained break below that area would tilt the near-term bias more decisively to the downside, shifting trader attention toward the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 0.6705. A move down to—and especially through—that moving-average cluster would be technically significant, as it would give sellers greater control and signal that the post-PPI rebound has likely run its course (see the blue and green lines on the chart).Looking at other markets, US stocks are mixed in premarket trading. The futures are implying:Dow industrial average up 97 points S&P index up 2.68 pointsNASDAQ index -36 pointsIn the commodity markets:Crude oil is trading down $0.40 and $56.89. According to CNBC, citing a White House source, oil sales from Venezuela will continue indefinitely as part of an agreement with the US administration that includes a reduction in sanctions. Under the deal, an initial tranche of 50 million barrels will be sold to the United States, with oil that would have previously gone to China and other buyers being rerouted to the US instead. The proceeds from these sales are expected to benefit both the United States and Venezuela, although no details have been provided regarding the pricing of the oil. US energy secretary Wright is saying that the the US government wants to sell Venezuela in oil and deposit the money into US controlled accounts, but adds that the money from selling th oil will flow back to benefit Venezuelan citizens. E Gold is down $48.60 or -1.10% at $4445. Silver is tumbling $3.80 or -4.7% at $77.34The price of bitcoin is trading down $1600 and $92,109.In the US debt market, yields are moving lower with a flatter yield curve:2-year yield 3.448%, -2.4 basis points5 year yield 3.678%, -4.2 basis points10 year yield 4.127%, -5.1 basis points30 year yield 4.811%, -5.5 basis points.ADP employment report: December hiring rebounds but remains modestPrivate-sector hiring showed a modest rebound in December, with ADP reporting +41,000 jobs, reversing some of November’s softness (-29K revised from -32K) but underscoring a still-cautious labor market. Education and health services (+39k) and leisure and hospitality (+24k) led gains, pointing to strength in people-centric services, while professional and business services (-29k) and information (-12k) were notable drags. By size, mid-sized firms (50–249 employees, +29k) drove most of the improvement, and small businesses returned to growth after November losses (plus 4K), even as large employers (+2k) remained restrained. Overall, December’s ADP report suggests selective hiring, with service industries carrying the load and broader momentum still muted heading into year-end. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was -32KGoods-3K versus -19K last monthService +44K versus -13K last monthsmall business +9K vs -120K prior (6 of the last 7 months have been negative)medium businesses +34K vs +51K last monthlarge businesses +2K vs +39K last monthWages for job stayers +4.4% vs +4.5% last monthWages for job changers 6.6% vs 6.3% last monthThe initial market reaction to the report has been mum but we've seen some small bids in bonds.“Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADPSector changes. Education and health +39K vs +30K priorLeisure hospitality +24K vs +13K priorTrade transportation and utilities +11K vs +1K priorFinancial activities +6K vs -9K priorProfessional business services -29K vs- 26K priorAI is coming for the 'professional business services' jobs first. As for much of the year, it's been government-related healthcare jobs holding up while private sector jobs struggle. The next Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payrolls report (Employment Situation) is scheduled for Friday, January 9 at 8:30 am ET as we slowly catch up on economic data after the US government shutdown. The bad news is that there is already talk of another shutdown. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Friday could be an important day for silver: double top or new record highs?Big risks for gold on Friday with US NFP and US Supreme Court on the agendaDollar hangs in the balance as Trump obsesses over Greenland nextDAX 40 rises to new record highs amid positive risk sentiment, softer inflation dataLatest Australian inflation data keeps February interest rate hike on the tableEurozone December preliminary CPI +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y expectedGermany November retail sales -0.6% vs +0.2% m/m expectedGerman construction activity returns to growth at end of 2025French consumer confidence rises slightly in DecemberUK December construction PMI 40.1 vs 42.5 expectedChina gold reserves continue to climb, up for a 14th month runningMarkets:USD mixed, overall FX little changedEuropean equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%US 10-year yields down 3.7 bps to 4.141%Gold down 1.1% to $4,447.09WTI crude flat at $57.01Bitcoin down 1.4% to $91,948There wasn't too much in the headlines in European trading today. The handover from Asia saw a higher Australian dollar after the softer but stickier inflation data, reaffirming the potential for a rate hike by the RBA in February. However, those gains fizzled out during the session with AUD/USD dropping off from 0.6760 to 0.6730 levels currently to stay flattish on the day.We also got the Eurozone inflation data for December and that continues to reaffirm the ECB's position to keep on the sidelines for the most part. So, there's nothing new on that front.Instead, the most notable action is a bit of a breather in the hot start to the year for precious metals. Gold is down over 1% to $4,447 while silver is down over 3% to $78.55 on the day as the bulls hit pause.This as the risk rally also starts to flatten out a bit with US futures and European indices posting slight losses on the day. The market attention now slowly shifts to US labour market data, with the main event of the week being the non-farm payrolls release on Friday.In FX, major currencies weren't up to much with the dollar holding in a smaller range and trading little changed across the board. The aussie was the only notable mover early on but as mentioned above, things just fizzled out after.Besides that, there is still some eyes on geopolitical risks with Trump taking aim at Greenland next. So, that will be something to be mindful about in the weeks to come.Otherwise, it's on to the ADP roulette next. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In 2025, the most important event was Trump's "Liberation Day" in April where he announced the reciprocal tariff rates for pretty much all the countries in the world. The tariffs were set so high that they surprised everyone and led to risk aversion in the markets. Given the strong selloff in the US dollar in the first half of 2025, the de-dollarisation narrative gained steam and everyone started to blame de-dollarisation everytime the greenback weakened against the major currencies. The problem is that even if there's a slow trend of diversification from the US dollar, it can't be replaced any time soon. The main driver of the dollar remains the market's outlook for the Federal Reserve monetary policy. Everything else is just noise. In fact, in 2024 the long dollar positioning reached an extreme following Trump's election. The market turned very hawkish on the Federal Reserve and those expectations kept the USD strong. In 2025 though, Trump started to rattle markets with his tariffs agenda that culminated with the Liberation Day in April. The selloff in the US dollar was just caused by the unwinding of extreme long dollar positions and then on the expectations of Fed rate cuts. That's it. In fact, if we look at the monthly DXY chart below, we can see that the selloff in April marked the bottom in the bearish trend and from there we just kept on ranging. Right now, DXY is trading around the April 2025 levels. This year, the market expects the Fed to cut at least two times. This is already priced in, so it's not going to lead to meaningful appreciation or depreciation. The next major move is going to come either from an unwinding of bearish dollar positioning on a hawkish repricing or an increase in rate cut bets if the US labour market or inflation continue to surprise to the downside.Therefore, watch the US data this year but keep also an eye on the US Supreme Court decisions on tariffs and Fed's Cook as they can have an impact on interest rate expectations. On the geopolitical front, the most important thing to keep an eye on is Taiwan because of its critical influence on global tech industry. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The estimate is for the headline PMI reading to drop to 52.3, down from 52.6 in November. That will point to a further moderation in business activity to round up the year, as reflected in the S&P Global PMI report yesterday here. If the ISM print matches the estimate, that will be the softest reading since September last year.Now, overall activity is still expected to remain in expansion territory. So, the reading is not going to point to major trouble but just some moderation in the growth momentum.Looking at yesterday's report by S&P Global, there are a couple of key downside points to note. For one, new orders were especially weak as new business placed at services providers showed the smallest rise in some 20 months. That points to some softening in demand conditions and one that could extend into the new year.The other key point is that employment conditions stagnated on the month, failing to rise for the first time since February. S&P Global noted that the fall is negligible but it does put an end to a nine-month sequence of continuous growth. Of note, cost concerns, budget constraints and the downturn in demand growth were cited as reasons for the lackluster trend in employment.So, those are some things to watch out for when we get to the ISM report later.Besides that, one of the more focal points will be the prices paid component - which fell quite sharply in November. In fact, the drop from 70.0 in October to 65.4 in November represents the largest in 21 months. That saw the component drop to its lowest since April but is still sitting well above historical levels.What about December then?MNI notes that the signal is a little more mixed based on regional Fed surveys. They note that Dallas was the only one of five Fed surveys to report a dip in prices paid from November to December. Meanwhile, New York and Philly reported noticeable upticks in prices paid pressures. At the balance, it points to a slightly higher prices paid gauge this time around.So, that is likely to help deflect the sharp drop in November as prices stabilise in December; that is if things play out expectedly. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.