Traders appeared willing to give the CPI data the benefit of the doubt, particularly with housing accounting for roughly two-thirds of the overall increase. The initial market reaction sent the U.S. dollar lower, but across many of the major currency pairs, the dollar's decline quickly ran into key technical levels.A number of those levels could not be breached. When the breaks failed, the price action began to reverse, with the U.S. dollar moving back higher. As a result, several of the major pairs have now returned to — or even moved through — the levels where they were trading before the CPI release.In the video above, I take another look at EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD, reevaluating what happened after the CPI report, what didn't happen technically, and where the bias, risk and targets now stand for each of the major currency pairs.Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields remain lower on the day, although they have moved off their session lows:2-year: 4.188%, -2.9 basis points 5-year: 4.358%, -2.6 basis points 10-year: 4.668%, -1.6 basis points 30-year: 5.231%, -3.3 basis points U.S. stocks also remain higher, but have backed off their best levels of the session:S&P 500: +0.23% NASDAQ Composite: +0.46% NASDAQ 100: +0.82% Dow Industrials: unchanged on the day The post-CPI moves have therefore lost some of their initial momentum, with the dollar recovering, Treasury yields trimming their declines, and equities giving back part of their earlier gains. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.2% m/m16% trimmed mean CPI +0.2% vs 0.0% priorOn a 12-month basis:Median CPI 2.7% vs 2.7% prior16% trimmed-mean 2.6% vs 2.6% priorHere is the Cleveland Fed's description of what they're doing:A number of measures have been developed to measure underlying inflation. The CPI excluding food and energy prices (core CPI) removes price changes of the same items from the CPI each month—namely, food and energy prices—because they are typically the most volatile. The median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI use a different approach. These measures exclude the smallest and largest price changes during the month, so the items excluded from the CPI change from month to month. The median CPI excludes all price changes except for the one in the center of the distribution of price changes, where the price changes are ranked from lowest to highest (or most negative to most positive). The 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI excludes price changes in specified upper and lower tails of the distribution.According to research from the Cleveland Fed, the median CPI provides a better signal of the underlying inflation trend than either the all-items CPI or the CPI excluding food and energy. The median CPI is even better at forecasting PCE inflation in the near and longer term than the core PCE price index.These numbers are a tad more inflationary than the headlines but certainly not anything alarming. THe US dollar hs recouped its earlier declines. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2479KGasoline -968K vs -1199K expectedDistillates -10K vs -200K expectedAPI data from late yesterday:Crude +9072KGasoline -1531KDistillates -596KFor the week ending August 7, another 6.1 million barrels left the SPR and it recently broke below 300 million barrels. That is a massive build, though some of it was flagged by API and a talk of a mismatch on timing between imports and exports. At the end of the day though, no one is buying crude on a headline like that.WTI crude oil has been bouncing around on Iran headlines and was last down 40-cents to $82.81 per barrel.Meanwhile, the tweeter-in-chief is ranting about Iran on Truth Social:The U.S.A. has total control over over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT! Our Naval Blockade is being called, by everyone, “A WALL OF STEEL,” and there is nothing Iran can do about it. They have no Navy, they have no Air Force, their remaining soldiers are unpaid, the IRGC is decimated and fleeing, and their “Leadership” is uncertain, at best! They have No Money - Their country is “shot.” All they have is FAKE NEWS and 300% INFLATION, and getting worse! Iran is all talk and no action, the Bully of the Middle East No Longer. Praise be to Allah! President DONALD J. TRUMPOn it goes. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold is a winner again today, up $67 to $4434 and just edging above the weekly high set yesterday.There has been a remarkable resurgence in gold since August 5 as it's gained nearly 10% since on a series of strong days. Helping it has been softer US economic data, including Friday's non-farm payrolls report. In addition, today's CPI report underscored that there is no rush for the Fed to hike rates. The numbers were in-line with estimates and that's led to broad, modest USD selling. Gold touched a session high of $4440 moments after the report landed.Another factor dricing the gold bid has been US intervention in the yen market in order to weaken the dollar. There are all kinds of rumors about Treasury selling and Bessent stepping in to fight that but on the face of it, the idea that the US wants the dollar weaker and is actively intervening to make that happen is undoubtedly bullish.On the war front, I think peace would be the best outcome for gold but it's increasingly clear that the US finds itself in a quagmire with no clear path out. The problem for gold is that it could mean a fresh spike in oil prices once strategic reserves are drawn down.  In the Q2 Saudi Aramco conference call, the company highlighted a troubling dynamic."Global oil demand has remained resilient as the supply shock was masked by an estimated 9 million barrels per day of strategic petroleum reserves and commercial inventory withdrawals and around 2 million barrels per day in demand management."The problem is that if oil prices rise materially from here, there could be fresh pressures to sell gold reserves to stabilize currencies or fund imports.Finally, this week the Trump administration floated a capital gains tax cut, likely via indexation. Such a move might be politically popular but if enacted it would punch yet-another hole in the deficit and highlight that no one in Washington is serious about growing government debt.All told, the long-term case for gold remains as powerful as ever. It's a long road back to all time highs near $5500 but the next barrier is $4500 and that's worth keeping in mind. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Tech stocks are leading the way higher in trading today, with semiconductor shares among the strongest performers. Nvidia is currently up 2.56%, Micron is up 6.20%, Intel is higher by 3.25%, and AMD is gaining 2.64%.  All of those gains are all of those gains are higher than the average is with the NASDAQ index up 0.68% and the NASDAQ 100 up 1.0%In the video above, I take a technical look at each of these chip stocks and break down what today’s price action is telling traders about the bias, the risk, and the potential targets.For traders looking for opportunities, the technicals help identify key levels where buyers or sellers may take control. They also provide low-risk levels to lean against, allowing traders to define their risk while identifying the targets that could come into play if the momentum continues.A brief overview shows:Nvidia shares trading back within a swing area between $221.76 and the $224.76. .  Staying above $221.76 would be more bullish.  Move below and there could be some disappointment for the buyers.  Micron shares are higher by over 6% in trading today and the move has taken the price back above the 200 hour MA at $910.04. The price is trading near $922 currently. If the price can stay above that MA, it would keep a bias shift more in favor of the buyers and have traders looking toward the hghs from July starting at $1011 and moving up from there. Intel shares are trading up 3.25% and that rise has taken the price above its 200 hour MAat $101.42. If the price can stay above that MA, it would shift the bias more in favor of the buyers. Move back below and the technical bias is more neutral with support at the 100 hour and 100 day MAs near $96. AMD shares are trading up 2.64% after testing its 100 hour AM at $488.11. If the price can extend above the 100 hour MA it would be a positive shift for the buyers with the 200 hour MA at $309.68 as the next target.  Stay below, and the buyers are still not winning (sellers still in control). Key barometer at the 100 hour MA for both buyers and sellers. e staying This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. CPI report came in right in line with expectations for both the headline and core readings, giving the market some confidence that the broader inflation trend continues to move in the right direction. Shelter costs accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase, suggesting inflation would look considerably better if housing-related pressures begin to ease. The market reaction has been modestly dovish. Expectations for a September Fed rate hike have slipped from around 46% to 42.1%, while Treasury yields have moved lower. The 2-year yield is down 4.2 basis points to 4.176%, while the 10-year yield is lower by 2.8 basis points at 4.655%. US stocks are higher with the Dow industrial average is up 150 points. The S&P is up 29 points and the NASDAQ 100 is up 100 points in futures trading.In the video above, I take a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD, focusing on what the post-CPI price action has done to the bias, risk and targets for each pair. Where do buyers have control? Where do sellers have control? What levels would shift the bias, and where are the next targets?The video walks through those key technical levels in real time and, more importantly, explains why they matter.Summary includes:EURUSD: The EURUSD is trading higher, but the day's high at 1.1562 remains just below the 100-day moving average at 1.15665. A move above and staying above that moving average would strengthen the bullish bias and have traders targeting the 50% midpoint of the decline from the 2026 high at 1.1586. USDJPY: The USDJPY moved lower and tested its rising 100-hour moving average at 158.697, with the session low reaching 158.69 before rebounding modestly to around 158.80. A move below and staying below the 100-hour MA would shift the focus toward the nearly converged 200-hour MA at 158.20 and 200-day MA at 158.126. GBPUSD: The GBPUSD extended to a new session high at 1.3541, putting the July high at 1.35573 in focus. A break above that level would take the pair to its highest level since May 12 and open the door for a move toward the April high at 1.3657. USDCHF: The USDCHF has moved back down to test its 100-hour MA at 0.8103 and 200-hour MA at 0.80949. A break below those levels would tilt the bias back to the downside after the more bullish price action over the last two days. Since mid-June, the pair has traded mostly between 0.8029 and 0.81513, with some extensions on either side. The 100- and 200-hour MAs sit near the middle of that range and remain key shorter-term barometers for buyers and sellers. USDCAD: The USDCAD is dipping below its 100-day moving average at 1.39176, marking the first move below that MA since May 15. Staying below the 100-day MA and then breaking the 50% retracement at 1.3899 would increase the bearish bias and have traders looking toward the 200-day moving average at 1.3853. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month -1.7% revised to -3.0%Building permits for June +18.5% vs +0.8% estimate. Needless to say much stronger than expected.  The growth in construction intentions in June was led by the non-residential sector (+$1.8 billion), while the residential sector (+$479.7 million) made a smaller contribution.Details:Non-residential building permits: Rose $1.8 billion to $6.8 billion in June, led by a sharp increase in institutional projects. Institutional permits: Increased $1.5 billion to $3.2 billion, driven primarily by Ontario (+$1.3 billion) and a major medical project in the Toronto area. Quebec added $238.7 million. Industrial permits: Rose $268.8 million to $1.2 billion, led by Saskatchewan (+$189.5 million) and Ontario (+$104.2 million). Commercial permits: Increased $67.9 million to $2.4 billion, with gains across seven provinces and Ontario leading at +$106.0 million. Residential permits: Increased $479.7 million, or 6.3%, to $8.1 billion. Multi-unit residential: Rose $283.7 million to $5.3 billion, led by Quebec (+$201.3 million), Alberta (+$143.4 million) and Saskatchewan (+$61.4 million). Single-family residential: Increased $196.0 million to $2.8 billion, led by Alberta (+$110.8 million) and Quebec (+$85.4 million), while British Columbia declined $30.8 million. Overall: June's strength was broad-based, but the standout was the surge in institutional construction permits, particularly in Ontario.The monthly Canadian Building Permits Survey measures the value of building permits issued by municipalities for both residential and non-residential construction. It also tracks the number of residential dwelling units authorized for construction, as well as the number of dwelling units demolished. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 3.5%Unrounded +3.365%CPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.1% expPrior CPI was -0.4%Unrounded CPI m/m +0.074% vs -0.422% priorCore readings:Core y/y 2.5% vs 2.5% expected -- lowest since FebPrior core was 2.6%Core m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% expectedPrior m/m +0.0%Unrounded +0.215% m/m vs -0.017% prior Core-CPI services ex-Rent/OER (supercore) was +0.189% m/m vs. -0.203% priorCore-CPI services ex-shelter +0.355% m/m vs. -0.089% priorCore goods +0.2% m/m vs -0.086% m/m priorAhead of the report, the market was pricing in a 44% chance of a rate hike in September and 24.4 bps in hikes this year. USD/JPY was trading at 159.04 ahead of the report.Afterwards, the hike odds are at 39% for September. The US dollar is broadly lower in the aftermath to 158.92. The bigger dollar moves are elsewhere but limited to 15-20 pips against the majors. Gold hit a sessoin high afterwards, up $55 to $4422.Key sub-components:Owners' equivalent rent: +0.3% vs +0.24% priorRent of primary residence: +0.3% vs +0.15% priorMotor vehicle insurance: -0.3% vs -2.0% priorAirfares: +2.2% vs +0.2% priorUsed cars: +0.4% vs -0.2% priorApparel: +0.1% vs -0.6% priorMedical care: +0.4% vs -0.1% priorLodging away from home: -2.8% vs -2.3% priorEnergy m/m: -1.5% vs -5.7% priorGasoline m/m: -2.9% vs -9.7% priorFood m/m: +0.1% vs +0.2% priorOverall, this report certainly gives cover for the Fed to hold again in September but we still have another inflation report before the decision, and a standstill that continues in Hormuz. Stock markets have cheered the move  so far and S&P 500 futures are up 0.45%. US 2-year yields are down 3.6 bps to 4.18%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The U.S. dollar is starting the session lower against the major currencies. The dollar is slightly lower versus the euro, with EURUSD up 0.03%, and lower against the British pound, with GBPUSD up 0.15%. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar is also slightly lower, with USDJPY down 0.12%.In the Kickstart video above, I take a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, with the focus on the three things every trader should know: the bias, the risk and the targets.Where do the buyers have control? Where do the sellers have control? What levels would change the bias, and where are the targets if the price starts to trend?Know the bias, understand the risk, and identify the targets. Those are the three things every trader should be aware of before putting on a trade.Today, the July U.S. CPI report is due at 8:30 AM ET, with inflation expected to rebound modestly on a monthly basis while easing slightly year over year. The core readings remain the key focus, particularly for expectations surrounding the Fed's September meeting.Headline CPI: +0.1% m/m expected vs. -0.4% prior Headline CPI: +3.4% y/y expected vs. +3.5% prior Core CPI: +0.2% m/m expected vs. 0.0% prior Core CPI: +2.5% y/y expected vs. +2.6% prior Lower energy prices should help contain headline inflation, while core inflation is expected to remain somewhat sticky. Goldman Sachs is slightly softer than consensus, forecasting +0.19% for core and +0.05% for headline CPI. BofA is in line with consensus at +0.2% core and +0.1% headline.From a market perspective, the risk/reward may be asymmetric. A hotter-than-expected report could increase expectations for a September Fed hike, although the August CPI report will still be important. Conversely, a softer report could significantly reduce September hike expectations, pressure the U.S. dollar and yields, and provide support for equities. The market is now expecting a 46% chance of a hike for September, down from about 50% yesterday. IN the middle east, Iran is pushing back against reports of a possible ceasefire extension with the U.S., saying there is no existing agreement to extend. A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Washington violated the arrangement just 48 hours after it was reached and later abandoned it altogether. Talks are instead focused on whether the U.S. will return to the conditions outlined in the original memorandum of understanding, including a timetable for meeting its commitments, but Iran says there has been no progress. The comments undercut earlier speculation about extending the agreement beyond August 17 and helped lift oil prices from their session lows.Crude oil futures are trading at $83.55. That's up $0.34 on the day. The high price reached $84.35. The low price is at $82.46.In the pre-market for US stocks the futures are implying Dow industrial average is higher by 61.15 pointsS&P index is higher by 11.05 pointsNASDAQ 100 is higher by 180 pointsU.S. yields are lower across the curve, with declines relatively evenly distributed from the front end through the long end:2-year: 4.193%, -2.5 bps5-year: 4.361%, -2.5 bps10-year: 4.662%, -2.2 bps30-year: 5.218%, -1.7 bpsThe slightly larger declines at the front end have the yield curve modestly steepening, although the overall move is relatively contained. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?What to expect from the US CPI report later today?Iran reportedly maintains that there are no discussions over ceasefire extension as the pact doesn't exist anymoreUSD/JPY stalls ahead of a key US CPI report; BoJ expected to raise rates in SeptemberBitcoin Forecast Today: Why BTC Is Struggling Below $64,000Fed policymaker Collins says would back September rate hike if data points to that directionGermany inflation confirmed to accelerate in July but core prices remain steadierItaly inflation eases just a touch in July, core price keep steady thoughMarkets:USD flat, NZD lags on the dayWTI crude flat at $83.18Gold up 1.1% to $4,413European indices slightly higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%US 10-year yields down 2.4 bps to 4.66%Bitcoin up 0.8% to $64,188The countdown continues ahead of the main event for markets this week, that being the US CPI report for July.We're less than an hour away now from that, so it is finally about time to see some action in markets after a more tentative setup in the past few days.In European trading today, there was an early speculative report that the US and Iran would extend the supposed ceasefire deal from the end of June. But as we all know, that agreement has been broken since last month already and Iran was quick to reaffirm that by saying that there is nothing to extend when the pact "does not even exist".WTI crude fell earlier to $82.50 but is now trading back flat on the day at around $83.18.Besides that, there wasn't too much other action apart from precious metals climbing further today. Gold is up 1.1% to $4,413 and silver up $2.5% to $66.29 on the day. However, the next move all rides on the US inflation numbers - the same as it would be for broader markets.The US dollar is not up to much, keeping little changed across the board. USD/JPY is down just 0.1% to 159.06 with traders not really taking the recovery bounce too far in wanting to test the 160 threshold.Elsewhere, European indices are holding slightly higher alongside US futures while bond yields are down slightly on the day. Overall, the market mood is relatively tentative in waiting on the US CPI report to come.Will we see any surprises to get markets going in the second half of the week? Or will it be a more benign report, thus forcing the wait to extend to Jackson Hole instead? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There are no discussions with the US over extending ceasefire agreementFrom Iran's perpsecitve, there is no ceasefire start date and therefore there is nothing to extendThe US violated the agreement 48 hours after it was reached and withdrew from it a few days laterOne of the issues that is being discussed is the US returning back to conditions set out by the memorandum of understandingThat means defining a timeframe for implementing its commitmentsHowever, there has been absolutely no progress on this issueEarlier in the day, there were some murmurs and speculative reports that both sides were looking to extend the supposed ceasefire agreement that would've lapsed on 17 August. Even if not said officially before this, it is clear that both sides have walked away from that agreement long before today. That especially after constantly exchanging military strikes and also attacks along the Strait of Hormuz.For some context, this was part of the 60-day arrangement set out by the memorandum of understanding at the end of June. But as Iran is now making it clear, this pact or whatever deal certainly doesn't exist anymore.Hence, there is nothing to "extend" when both sides are already not honouring the agreement.The headlines here are giving a renewed lift to oil prices, with WTI crude up 0.2% to $83.35 after having hit lows of around $82.50 earlier in the session. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

India’s retail inflation accelerated in July, with the Consumer Price Index rising 4.45% y/y, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). The reading marked a renewed increase in price pressures after headline inflation stood at 4.38% in June, but the data came below the 4.5% forecast. The July figure puts inflation above the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% medium-term target, although it remains comfortably within the central bank’s broader tolerance band of 2%-6%. The acceleration was largely associated with food prices, which continue to represent an important source of inflationary pressure for Indian households. The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) showed food inflation rising to 5.52% y/y in July. The increase was particularly pronounced in rural areas, where food inflation reached 5.79%, compared with 5.05% in urban India. The headline rate has moved further above the Reserve Bank of India's 4% inflation objective, but it's unlikely to change RBI's policy just yet.  This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The US inflation data later will cover the month of July and the estimates are as per the following:Headline CPI +0.1% m/m est. (Prior -0.4%)Headline CPI +3.4% y/y est. (Prior +3.5%)Core CPI +0.2% m/m est. (Prior 0.0%)Core CPI +2.5% y/y est. (Prior +2.6%)As always, the core numbers will be the key focus in the report. And barring any major surprises, we're not likely to see that much of a shift to the inflation and Fed outlook.The June report was leaning to the softer side, but the expectation is that the July report will start to fall back in line with the recent trend. The drop in energy prices should pin down headline inflation slightly but core prices are likely to keep more stubborn and continue to hold well above the 2% threshold on an annual basis.If anything, I would argue markets will not get too carried away even on any hotter prints as Fed chair Warsh is still looking somewhat reluctant to turn up the hawkish dial.A miss on estimates instead will have the potential to see a material dovish repricing. Equities can definitely use this as a good excuse to find some much needed relief after the recent shake up. So, that's one spot I would be keen to eye on any downside surprises to the inflation data.In other words, the balance of risks appear to be skewed more towards the downside for the dollar on a softer print rather than being able to capitalise on a hotter report.On a benign set of numbers though, we'll only get a better sense of what the Fed might do in the next report in August instead. That will fall on 11 September, five days before the next FOMC meeting decision.Goldman Sachs:"We expect a 0.19% increase in July core CPI (vs +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.47% (vs. +2.5% consensus). We expect a 0.05% increase in headline CPI (vs +0.1% consensus), reflecting lower energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a larger 0.26% increase in core PCE in July, reflecting a large increase in its portfolio management component. Looking beyond July, we expect monthly core CPI increases of around 0.2% over the next couple of months, reflecting the continued slowdown in the shelter categories, shrinking contributions from tariff-related price increases, and the reversal of upward pressure on airfares from higher jet fuel prices, though risks are tilted to the upside if disruptions to oil markets and associated oil price increases prove more persistent than expected."BofA:"After a notably soft June CPI report, we expect the July CPI to print more in-line with recent trends, including 0.1% m/m in headline and 0.2% in core. We go into the data maintaining our call for 3 Fed hikes this year, even after last week's soft labor report. Overall labour conditions remain stable, with Fed's reaction function still skewed to the inflation side of the mandate. We expect US rates and the USD to react more to a downside print than to an equally sized upside print. While an upside print should put the Sept FOMC firmly in play, the decision would still likely hinge on August data, given Chair Warsh's apparent reluctance to hike. Conversely, a soft print would all but rule out a September hike and notably challenge market pricing of ~30bp of hikes through December. UST positioning and to a lesser extent USD positioning point marginally in this direction." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver has been rallying steadily since last Tuesday on US-Iran deal hopes and found some further support from a softer than expected NFP report. The momentum looks to be running out of steam though and it will likely need support from the US CPI report today to extend the gains.The data will be critical for the September FOMC decision and Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The focus will be on the Core CPI M/M measure which is expected at 0.2%. A hot report will likely trigger a selloff in the short-term, with traders increasing rate hike bets. A soft or even in-line report, on the other hand, should reduce further the risk of Fed tightening and give silver another boost. SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that silver broke above the major downward trendline and the 63.20 swing high which is technically a positive signal for a reversal of the trend. The target for the buyers should be the 71.50 level now. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 89.40 level next. SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 60.00 handle next. SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will continue to have better risk to reward setups around the trendline, while the sellers will wait for a break to pile in for a correction into the 60.00 handle next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the US PPI data and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Monolith Market has extended its offering to include cash equities, giving clients access to shares listed on major global exchanges alongside the platform's existing Forex, metals, indices and energies markets.The cash equities offering is designed to sit within the same account structure as the rest of the platform, giving clients a single point of access to listed shares without needing a separate brokerage relationship."Adding cash equities means clients can follow individual companies, not just aggregate benchmarks, within the same structured environment they already use for other markets,"said a Monolith Market spokesperson.The risk profile of cash equities depends on the specific account type and product structure through which a position is held. Clients should refer to the relevant product terms and the full risk disclosure to understand the applicable risk profile for the shares they intend to trade, including whether the position is leveraged and whether losses could exceed the amount invested.As with any listed security, share prices can fall as well as rise, and past performance of any company or sector is not a guide to future results.Details on available markets and account eligibility for cash equities are available at monolithmarket.com/markets.Risk warning: the risk profile of cash equities depends on the specific product structure and account type; clients should consult the applicable product terms and the full risk disclosure before trading, as capital is at risk in all cases.About Monolith MarketMonolith Market is the operating brand of Monolith Private Wealth Limited (Registration No. C193549), a company incorporated in the Republic of Mauritius, with its registered office at The Gardens, Ground Floor, Bagatelle Office Park, Moka 80832, Mauritius. The company operates within the regulatory framework of the Mauritius Financial Services Commission (FSC); specific licence references will be published once the relevant regulatory confirmations are finalised. Monolith Market provides access to a curated set of instruments spanning Forex, metals, indices, energies, cash equities, futures, options and crypto-asset derivatives, with client funds held in segregated accounts and negative balance protection for retail clients on leveraged products. Monolith Private Wealth Limited does not offer services to, and does not solicit, residents of the United States, Canada, Japan, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Cuba, the Crimea region, or any other jurisdiction where doing so would be contrary to local law.Risk Warning: Trading Forex and Contracts for Difference (CFDs) is a leveraged product and carries a high level of risk to your capital. It may not be suitable for all investors and you may lose substantially more than your initial investment. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Complex instruments such as futures, options and crypto-asset derivatives carry additional risks, including high volatility and, in some jurisdictions, reduced regulatory protection, and may not be suitable for all clients. The risk profile of cash equities depends on the specific product structure and account type and should be confirmed against the applicable product terms. Please read the full risk disclosure before trading. This release is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an offer of services in jurisdictions where this is not permitted. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD:The US dollar has recovered most of the losses triggered by the softer than expected NFP reportas the September rate hike probabilities rose back to 50%. The reason for this whipsaw in expectations is that there was a significant loss of government jobs, which made the report look much softer than it actually was. In fact, the unemployment rate painted a different picture, falling further to 4.1%. Overall, the labour market remains on a better trajectory than it has been over the past three years.Today, we have the US CPI report. The data will be critical for the September FOMC decision and Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The focus will be on the Core CPI M/M measure which is expected at 0.2%. A hot report will likely trigger a rally, with traders increasing rate hike bets. A soft or even in-line report, on the other hand, should reduce further the risk of Fed tightening and put further pressure on the greenback.JPY:On the JPY side, not much has changed after the intervention. The only notable development was US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remarks to CNBC potentially hinting to a faster BoJ tightening pace. In fact, he stated that "it will require policy to follow up on the intervention" and added that the "US would not have joined if it was not optimistic about Japan policies”. Japan’s currency diplomat Mimura stated that he had a shared understanding with the BoJ following the intervention, which might be another hint to faster rate hikes.   Finally, we got a report from Jiji yesterday saying that the BoJ may consider a rate hike at its September meeting according to sources. These kinds of reports ahead of BoJ meetings have always resulted in the central bank following suit, so we can expect the BoJ to hike in September to 1.25%. The market pricing is a bit more cautious with just a 58% probability of a rate hike.Overall, the trend is unlikely to change without a dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations or a faster BoJ tightening pace. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPYhas been slowly recovering ground after the intervention, with the first major target being the resistance zone around the 160.50 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the 155.00 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into new cycle highs.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we were to get a pullback into it, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into the 155.00 handle next. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor support zone around the 158.50 level. If we were to get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to step in around the support with a defined risk below the trendline to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will need to wait for a break below the trendline to gain more conviction for a move back into the 155.00 handle. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the US PPI data and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.   This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

July final CPI +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y prelimPrior +3.0%July final HICP +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelimPrior +3.0%More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.CPI Y/Y3.6% (2%)3.5% (8%) 3.4% (65%) - consensus3.3% (25%)CPI M/M0.3% (2%)0.2% (32%)0.1% (58%) - consensus0.0% (8%)Core CPI Y/Y2.8% (2%)2.6% (4%)2.5% (82%) - consensus2.4% (12%)Core CPI M/M0.3% (16%)0.2% (77%) - consensus0.1% (6%)0.0% (1%)The focus will be mainly on the Core CPI M/M measure since a few FOMC members mentioned that the monthly pace in core inflation will be key for their decision. Therefore, this should be one of those rare reports where even an in-line figure could still trigger a significant market reaction as it would be enough to reduce the probabilities of a September hike.  This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Why BTC Is Struggling Below $64,000 as Sellers Re-Take ControlBitcoin futures are navigating a shaky short-term setup today. After a quick bounce from $63,260 stalled right around the $64,000 mark, sellers stepped right back into the driver's seat. While the immediate outlook leans bearish, BTC is hovering near crucial support levels that could dictate its next big swing.Before diving into the chart technicals, it is worth looking at the broader macro backdrop driving global markets today:Federal Reserve Signals:Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently signaled she would support a September rate hike if incoming economic data demands tighter policy, putting extra eyes on the upcoming US CPI inflation report.Global Market Divergence:Asian stock markets showed mixed performance overnight. A semiconductor surge lifted South Korea's Kospi, while Japan's Nikkei paused to wait for US inflation cues.Crypto Ecosystem Shifts:Tether announced it is giving users until September 17 to exit its gold-backed Alloy lending platform as the company redirects focus toward deepening liquidity for its flagship XAUT token and core crypto offerings.Key Takeaways for Bitcoin Traders TodayIf you are actively trading or holding BTC, here is the quick snapshot of where things stand right now:Current Bias: Bearish repair phase (not a confirmed bullish reversal yet).Prediction Score: -4 / +10 (indicates a moderate bearish advantage with medium confidence).Bullish Trigger: Sustained acceptance above $64,100.Bearish Trigger: Sustained trading below $63,580.Immediate Support Zone:$63,260 – $63,300 (where buyers previously stepped in).Execution Risk: Shorting straight into major support carries a poor risk-to-reward ratio. Waiting for a failed rebound or confirmed breakdown is generally a safer play.Note: This analysis is based on Bitcoin futures. Spot prices, perpetual swaps, and CFDs may trade at slight variances, so be sure to calibrate these zones to your specific trading platform.What Is Happening to Bitcoin Right Now?Bitcoin has been under noticeable pressure following two heavy selling waves that knocked futures down from roughly $65,545 to a low of $63,260.The initial recovery effort off that bottom looked promising, bringing prices up to $63,995 while briefly rebuilding volume at higher levels. However, buyers simply couldn't hold ground above the psychological $64,000 mark.This rejection is a classic example of buyer absorption. Aggressive buyers were actively picking up available sell orders, but because larger sellers were dumping heavy supply into that demand, price couldn't move higher and eventually closed near the bottom of the move. Buying activity alone isn't bullish—it has to actually hold the price up to count.Because it failed to hold, BTC slipped below its developing value area, pulling back toward the $63,695 level and making the overnight rally look more like a failed attempt at a fix than a true trend reversal.On the BTCUSD 1 hour chart, I'm also watching this potential channel, and especially if price decides to cross over its (red) mid lineWhy the Failed $64,000 Breakout MattersThe $63,935 to $64,100 zone has now transformed into the most critical resistance level on the chart.Because Bitcoin already tagged $63,995, a quick pop back above $64,000 won't necessarily mean buyers are back in charge. Major round numbers frequently attract liquidity sweeps and stop runs before price falls back into its old range.That is why the true bullish confirmation threshold is set slightly higher at $64,100—just above the previous value-area high.To confirm genuine price "acceptance" above this level, traders typically look for:Price holding above $64,100 for an extended periodFull 30-minute or 1-hour candles closing above the zoneA clean breakout followed by a successful retest of supportStronger buying volume following the breakoutWhat Would Turn the Bitcoin Outlook Bullish?The first sign of structural improvement would be a move back above the fair-value cluster between $63,765 and $63,825. This would pull BTC back over its value-area low and high-volume node.However, clearing that hurdle alone isn't enough to kill the bearish trend. Buyers still need to clear $64,100. If they succeed, the primary upside targets for resistance or profit-taking include:$64,240$64,430 – $64,480$64,580$64,930 – $64,980The final target zone sits just under the critical $65,000 resistance block where the recent breakdown first gained momentum.What Would Make the Outlook More Bearish?Trading below $63,765 serves as an early warning sign that the recovery is losing steam, but the official bearish activation level sits at $63,580.How you approach this depends on your trading style:Aggressive Traders: May look at weakness below $63,765 as an early clue to position short.Conservative Traders: Will likely wait for a confirmed breakdown below $63,580 (under both the overnight low and point of control). This sacrifices entry price in exchange for a higher probability trade.If sellers manage to push and hold price below $63,580, the primary downside target levels are:$63,420 – $63,380$63,260 – $63,300 (Major Support)$63,050$62,820 (if panic selling accelerates)Bitcoin Support & Resistance Reference TableTrading Scenarios: Bullish vs. BearishThe space between $63,580 and $64,100 is effectively a "decision zone." Price can chop around aggressively within this range, but neither buyers nor sellers have fully established control until a boundary breaks.Understanding the -4 Bitcoin ScoreThe -4 score out of +10 reflects a modest advantage for sellers, not an absolute guarantee that Bitcoin is going to crash immediately.The failed attempt at $64,000 and the loss of short-term value support this soft bearish bias. However, the score isn't more negative because the bounce off $63,260 showed real buying interest, and sellers haven't managed to crack that support floor yet.Final Takeaway for TradersThe main takeaway from today's price action is simple: never trust high buying volume in isolation. Aggressive buying only matters if it actually pushes price higher. When buyers are active but the market continues closing near its lows, it usually signals that heavy institutional supply is soaking up that demand.Avoid chasing shorts directly into the major $63,260 support floor. Waiting for a failed bounce into resistance or a clean, confirmed break below $63,580 offers a much better risk-to-reward setup.Disclaimer: Crypto trading carries significant risk. Always use proper risk management, set stop losses, and trade according to your personal strategy     This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The strong rally in the Nasdaq has stalled last Wednesday as the US-Iran deal failed to materialise within the expected timeline. Since then, the price action has been mostly rangebound with just the softer than expected NFP reportproviding some support. The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, with the probability of a September rate hike falling to 38%, compared with 54% before the release. Despite that, the probabilities of a September hike rose back to 50%.The reason for this whipsaw in expectations is that there was a significant loss of government jobs, which made the report look much softer than it actually was. In fact, the unemployment rate painted a different picture, falling further to 4.1%. Overall, the labour market remains on a better trajectory than it has been over the past three years.Today, we have the US CPI report. The data will be critical for the September FOMC decision and Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The focus will be on the Core CPI M/M measure which is expected at 0.2%. A hot report will likely trigger a selloff in the short-term, with traders increasing rate hike bets. A soft or even in-line report, on the other hand, should reduce further the risk of Fed tightening and give the Nasdaq another boost. NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see the Nasdaq is consolidating below the key swing level at 30,065. That’s where the sellers are stepping in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the 26,300 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new record highs.  NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the recent price action formed a symmetrical triangle. The price can break on either side but follows next is generally a more sustained trend. The buyers will continue to lean on the bottom trendline to keep targeting an upside breakout, while the sellers will lean on the top trendline to position for a downside break. NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as traders will likely wait for the US CPI release to start taking positions.  The red lines define average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the US PPI data and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.