New Zealand February building permits +2.7% m/m (prior +1.9%)+22.9% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK lifts youth minimum wage to £10.85, boosting incomes but raising hiring-cost concerns.The UK has lifted the National Minimum Wage for 18–20-year-olds to £10.85/hour from April 1, 2026 This equates to roughly a £1,500 annual pay boost for a full-time young worker Over 200,000 young workers are expected to benefit directly The move is part of a broader cost-of-living package alongside energy bill relief The increase is significantly larger than the adult wage rise, signalling a push to narrow age-based pay gapsThe UK government has implemented an increase in the National Minimum Wage for younger workers, lifting the rate for those aged 18–20 to £10.85 per hour from April 1, 2026. The change delivers an estimated £1,500 annual pay rise for full-time workers in this age group and is expected to benefit more than 200,000 individuals.The move forms part of a broader package of measures aimed at easing cost-of-living pressures, which also includes temporary energy bill relief and targeted support for vulnerable households. The policy comes at a time when global energy prices and inflation risks remain elevated, partly driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Notably, the increase for younger workers is proportionally larger than that applied to older workers. The National Living Wage for those aged 21 and over has been raised to £12.71 per hour, implying a smaller annual gain of around £900. This reflects the government’s longer-term strategy to reduce and eventually eliminate the gap between youth and adult wage rates.The policy marks a continuation of a broader trend in UK labour market reform, with youth wages rising sharply in recent years. Officials have framed the move as a necessary step to improve living standards and support workforce participation, particularly as young workers face rising housing, transport and energy costs.However, the increase is not without controversy. Some employers and industry groups have warned that higher wage floors could raise hiring costs, particularly in sectors that rely heavily on younger workers such as retail and hospitality. Concerns have also been raised about potential impacts on youth employment, with joblessness among younger cohorts already elevated.Despite these concerns, the government has signalled it is prioritising income support and fairness in pay, even as it attempts to balance pressures on businesses and the broader economy. The policy underscores a key tension in the current environment: supporting household incomes while managing inflation risks and labour market dynamics. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I noted a surge in de-escalation hopes despite reading this. Summary:A third US aircraft carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush, is deploying to the Middle East, potentially lifting the regional total to three carriers. Perhaps though its replacing one already there. The move sustains an elevated US military posture as Washington weighs further escalation against Iran The USS Abraham Lincoln is already active in the Arabian Sea, while USS Gerald R. Ford remains in port for repairs Additional forces, including Marines, amphibious ships and fighter jets, reinforce a broad and flexible strike capability Deployment signals sustained pressure on Tehran as Trump pushes for concessions on nuclear, missile and proxy activityThe United States is preparing to deploy a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East, reinforcing an already significant military presence as tensions with Iran remain elevated and the risk of further escalation persists.The USS George H.W. Bush has departed Naval Station Norfolk and is expected to head toward the region, where it would join the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike groups. While the Ford is currently in port undergoing repairs, US officials indicate that Washington could maintain three carriers in or near the region for an extended period, underscoring the scale and durability of the buildup.The Lincoln has been operating in the Arabian Sea for months, playing a central role in ongoing US-Israel operations targeting Iranian-linked assets. The addition of another carrier, alongside recent deployments of amphibious assault ships, Marine expeditionary units and additional fighter aircraft, significantly expands US operational flexibility across air, sea and land domains.The timing aligns with intensifying strategic pressure from Washington. President Donald Trump has warned that the US is prepared to escalate military action if Iran does not agree to a deal addressing nuclear enrichment, ballistic missile development and support for regional proxy groups. The carrier buildup provides both deterrence and immediate strike capacity, allowing the US to respond rapidly to developments while maintaining sustained operational tempo.From a military standpoint, multiple carrier strike groups in proximity enable overlapping air cover, extended sortie generation and redundancy in command-and-control, particularly important in a contested environment such as the Gulf and surrounding waterways. The inclusion of amphibious forces further points to optionality beyond airstrikes, including rapid-response or limited ground operations.The broader message is one of sustained pressure rather than imminent resolution. While diplomatic channels remain uncertain and signals from Iran have been mixed, the continued reinforcement of US forces suggests Washington is preparing for a prolonged standoff, with escalation risks still firmly on the table. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This via Wall Street Journal info. How to turn a $4 bn company into $39 mn. Yikes. Summary:Allbirds has agreed to sell most of its business for $39 million, marking a dramatic collapse from its ~$4 billion peak valuation The deal transfers IP, assets and liabilities to American Exchange Group, subject to shareholder approval (expected Q2 2026 close) Sale price is a fraction of its 2021 IPO proceeds (~$301 million) and reflects years of weak execution and demand Shares have fallen more than 95% since listing, with another sharp drop following the announcement Strategic missteps, product failures, brand drift and overreliance on sustainability, eroded its early momentumAllbirds has struck a deal to effectively sell most of its business for just $39 million, capping a steep fall from its once high-profile status as a ~$4 billion sustainability-driven disruptor. The agreement will see American Exchange Group acquire key intellectual property along with assets and liabilities, in a transaction that still requires shareholder approval and is expected to close in Q2 2026.The valuation collapse is stark. The sale price represents only a small fraction of the roughly $301 million Allbirds raised in its 2021 IPO and highlights how sharply investor sentiment has turned on the brand. Shares have lost more than 95% of their value since listing, with further downside following news of the deal.Founded in 2016, Allbirds quickly built a loyal following with its eco-friendly wool sneakers, gaining traction among Silicon Valley professionals and high-profile consumers. Its pitch, that sustainability and commercial success could go hand in hand, resonated strongly in an era of ESG enthusiasm and direct-to-consumer growth stories.However, the company struggled to convert early momentum into durable scale. Its core assumption, that consumers would consistently pay a premium for sustainability, proved weaker in practice, as shoppers prioritised price, comfort and style. While competitors leaned into performance or fashion, Allbirds remained heavily anchored to its environmental narrative.Execution issues compounded the challenge. Product expansion into categories such as apparel and performance footwear delivered mixed results, with some high-profile missteps, including flawed product launches, damaging brand credibility. At the same time, attempts to broaden its audience diluted its identity, leaving the company caught between lifestyle branding and technical performance positioning.Competition intensified as newer brands gained traction with both performance credibility and stronger design appeal. As customer loyalty faded, Allbirds lost relevance in key demographics, particularly among trend-sensitive consumers.Ultimately, the transaction underscores the difficulty of sustaining early-stage hype without consistent product-market fit and disciplined strategy. What began as a category-defining ESG success story has ended in a distressed-style asset sale, offering a cautionary tale for consumer brands built on narrative as much as product. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It's an up day!The major stock indices moved sharply to the upside in hopes that the into the Iranian war will be over sooner rather than later. That is still open for debate, but with the major indices down sharply for the month, the market was in the mood to push to the upside. The gains in the major indices were the largest going back to May 2025. A summary of the final numbers shows:Dow industrial average rose 1125.19 points or 2.49% at 46341.33S&P index rose 184.79 points or 2.91% at 6528.51.NASDAQ index rose 795.99 points or 3.83% at 21590.63. Small-cap Russell 2000 rose 82.36 points or 3.41% at 2496.37.Here are today's top gainers ranked by percentage change:Marvell (MRVL) — +12.86% (+$11.29) | Last: $99.10Nebius NV (NBIS) — +12.46% (+$11.50) | Last: $103.76SanDisk (SNDK) — +10.98% (+$62.84) | Last: $635.34Arm (ARM) — +10.45% (+$14.31) | Last: $151.27Roblox (RBLX) — +9.03% (+$4.69) | Last: $56.60Super Micro Computer (SMCI) — +8.14% (+$1.72) | Last: $22.78United Airlines (UAL) — +8.05% (+$6.86) | Last: $92.07Alaska Air (ALK) — +7.60% (+$2.60) | Last: $36.79Western Digital (WDC) — +7.53% (+$18.96) | Last: $270.63Intel (INTC) — +7.23% (+$2.98) | Last: $44.17Lam Research (LRCX) — +6.87% (+$13.73) | Last: $213.66First Solar (FSLR) — +6.80% (+$12.56) | Last: $197.26Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) — +6.78% (+$21.46) | Last: $337.96Meta Platforms (META) — +6.68% (+$35.83) | Last: $572.21Trump Media & Tech (DJT) — +6.54% (+$0.57) | Last: $9.29ARK Genomic Revolution (ARKG) — +6.49% (+$1.61) | Last: $26.43ARK Innovation (ARKK) — +6.42% (+$4.08) | Last: $67.60Palantir (PLTR) — +6.38% (+$8.78) | Last: $146.33Robinhood Markets (HOOD) — +6.35% (+$4.14) | Last: $69.30Ciena Corp (CIEN) — +6.30% (+$23.00) | Last: $388.00Emerson (EMR) — +6.27% (+$7.73) | Last: $131.03Barrick Mining (B) — +6.14% (+$2.36) | Last: $40.81Caterpillar (CAT) — +6.13% (+$40.93) | Last: $708.36Shopify (SHOP) — +6.13% (+$6.85) | Last: $118.62Industry Group Breakdown & Strength Assessment? Semiconductors & Chip Equipment — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Very StrongMRVL +12.86% | SNDK +10.98% | ARM +10.45% | INTC +7.23% | LRCX +6.87% | TSM +6.78%The clear leader of the day. Six major names all surging 7–13% is a powerful, broad-based move — not a one-off spike. When both design (ARM, MRVL), manufacturing (TSM), equipment (LRCX), and storage (SNDK) all rally together, it signals genuine sector conviction, not just rotation. This is the engine of the entire rally.? AI Infrastructure & Cloud — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Very StrongNBIS +12.46% | SMCI +8.14% | PLTR +6.38%Nebius and Super Micro are direct AI infrastructure plays, and both had outsized moves. Palantir's gain reinforces that AI software is also being bid up. The breadth here — hardware, servers, and analytics — suggests the market is pricing in accelerating AI buildout.? High-Growth Tech & Consumer Internet — ⭐⭐⭐⭐ StrongRBLX +9.03% | META +6.68% | HOOD +6.35% | SHOP +6.13%A solid group. Meta's near-7% gain is notable given its massive market cap — big ships don't move that fast without real buying pressure. Roblox and Shopify suggest risk appetite is high. Robinhood likely benefiting from the overall market excitement driving retail activity.✈️ Airlines — ⭐⭐⭐⭐ StrongUAL +8.05% | ALK +7.60%Two major carriers both up 7–8% is a meaningful move. This likely reflects falling fuel cost expectations and/or improving travel demand data. Airlines are economically sensitive, so this gain also signals broader macro optimism — investors aren't just buying tech, they're buying the economy.? ARK ETFs (Innovation Basket) — ⭐⭐⭐ ModerateARKG +6.49% | ARKK +6.42%Solid gains but these are ETFs that follow the broader innovation/risk trade — they're more of a reflection of the day's sentiment than a driver. Their move confirms high risk appetite but doesn't add independent conviction.? Industrials — ⭐⭐⭐ ModerateCAT +6.13% | EMR +6.27%Caterpillar and Emerson are bellwether industrials. Gains here suggest the rally has legs beyond just tech — investors are pricing in economic resilience. However, 6% gains in industrials are more of a "tide lifting all boats" story than a sector-specific catalyst.☀️ Clean Energy — ⭐⭐⭐ ModerateFSLR +6.80%First Solar had a nice bounce but it's a single name. Hard to call this a sector move without more solar/renewable names confirming. Treat it as stock-specific momentum.? Mining — ⭐⭐ CautiousBarrick (B) +6.14%A gold miner rising on a big up day is slightly unusual — gold is typically a defensive/fear trade. This could reflect currency dynamics or commodity optimism rather than pure risk-on sentiment. Worth monitoring.? Overall JudgmentThis is a high-conviction, broad risk-on rally. The fact that semiconductors, AI infrastructure, airlines, and big-cap tech all moved together — and nothing on this list is down — points to a macro catalyst (likely tariff relief news, a Fed signal, or strong economic data) rather than sector rotation. The semiconductor surge in particular gives this rally real credibility. The weakness to watch: if chips fade first, the rest likely follows.The month of March was the worst since February 2025For the month of March, the results were not so rosy. The declines were the worst since February 2025Dow industrial average fell -5.38%S&P index fell -5.09%NASDAQ index fell -4.75%A look at some of the big losers by industry shows:Industry Group Breakdown & Assessment of the Major Loser for the month✈️ Airlines & Travel — ? Severely DamagedAlaska Air -23.91% | Southwest -20.28% | American Airlines -13.72%Three major carriers all down 15–24% over the month is a brutal, broad-based collapse. This isn't stock-specific — it's a sector in distress. Likely driven by fears of a consumer spending slowdown, rising fuel costs, and recession anxiety. Today's bounce (UAL +8%, ALK +7.6%) looks like a relief rally within a deeper downtrend — proceed with caution.? Defense & Aerospace — ? Severely DamagedRaytheon -36.14% | Boeing -12.44%Raytheon's -36% is the single worst performer on the entire list — a stunning collapse for a defense giant. Boeing's continued decline adds to the pain. This sector may be pricing in budget cuts, contract concerns, or geopolitical uncertainty. Raytheon's move in particular warrants a closer look at company-specific news.? Semiconductors & AI Hardware — ? Hard HitSMCI -30.23% | Micron -15.73%Super Micro's -30% over the month tells a very different story from today's +8% bounce — it remains deeply underwater. Micron's drop reflects broader chip demand uncertainty. Today's sector rally looks like a dead cat bounce candidate for SMCI specifically.? High-Growth Tech & Consumer Internet — ? Significant WeaknessRoblox -16.02% | Robinhood -15.70% | DoorDash -15.53% | Meta -14.31% | Adobe -10.99% | Snowflake -10.41% | Box -10.21%The widest group by name count. Meta's -14% monthly loss vs. today's +6.68% gain perfectly illustrates the volatility — one good day doesn't erase weeks of selling. High-growth and speculative tech clearly bore the brunt of macro fear this month.? Housing & Consumer Discretionary — ? Notable WeaknessLennar -18.50% | Chipotle -12.86% | Lululemon -11.61% | Home Depot -10.93% | Whirlpool -10.11% | Tapestry -10.08%Housing (Lennar) and consumer spending names are getting hit hard — a clear signal that the market is worried about the American consumer. Rising rates, inflation fatigue, and recession fears are all showing up here. This is a concerning cluster.? Financials & Fintech — ? Under PressureRobinhood -15.70% | SoFi -15.08% | Strategy -14.76% | Deutsche Bank -10.73%Retail-facing fintechs (Robinhood, SoFi) are down sharply, likely on fears of declining retail trading activity and credit stress. Deutsche Bank's inclusion adds an international dimension — European banking concerns may be bleeding in. Strategy's drop likely tied to Bitcoin/crypto volatility.? Healthcare & Medical Devices — ? Quietly HurtingStryker -13.96% | Boston Scientific -13.11% | Moderna -12.11% | ARKG -10.44%Defensive healthcare names losing 10–14% is a red flag — when even "safe" sectors sell off this hard, it typically means forced liquidation or broad risk-off panic, not just sector rotation.? Restaurants & Consumer Staples — ? Moderate but TellingGeneral Mills -14.51% | Chipotle -12.86%General Mills falling nearly 15% is striking — consumer staples are supposed to be recession-proof. This suggests either margin compression from tariffs/inflation or that the selloff was truly indiscriminate.? Autos & Industrials — ? ModerateFord -10.07%Ford barely makes the list but its presence reflects broader auto sector anxiety — tariff impacts on supply chains and EV demand uncertainty are likely culprits.? Overall Judgment of the LosersThis monthly picture tells a much darker story than today's single-day rally suggests. The damage is sweeping — airlines, defense, tech, housing, healthcare, and consumer names all down 10–36%. This is the footprint of a macro-driven selloff, almost certainly tied to tariff fears, recession anxiety, and rate uncertainty.The key tension: Today's big up day happened on top of a month of heavy losses. That makes it look more like a oversold bounce or relief rally than the start of a new bull run. The stocks that bounced hardest today (SMCI, ALK, RBLX, META) are also among the worst monthly performers — classic short-covering behavior. Until the monthly chart stops making lower lows, treat daily rallies with skepticism.Industry Group Breakdown & Assessment of the Major Winners for the month?️ Energy — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Dominant Theme of the MonthOccidental +21.25% | Exxon Mobil +17.54% & +13.23% | Shell +12.45% | Chevron +11.22%Energy is clearly the strongest sector of the month by breadth and consistency. Four major names — covering US independents (Oxy), US supermajors (Exxon, Chevron), and international (Shell) — all up 11–21%. This is a powerful, coordinated move suggesting rising oil prices, strong earnings expectations, or a flight to commodity-backed cash flow in an uncertain macro environment. This is where the smart money hid during the broader selloff.? Fertilizers & Agriculture — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ StandoutCF Industries +24.00%CF Industries' +24% is the second-best performer of the month. As a major nitrogen fertilizer producer, this likely reflects commodity price strength and global food security concerns — possibly tied to supply chain disruptions or geopolitical tensions affecting agricultural inputs. A massive, conviction move.? Semiconductors & Tech Hardware — ⭐⭐⭐⭐ StrongMarvell +26.90% | Arm +21.88% | Dell +11.58%Marvell leads the entire list at +26.90% — impressive given the brutal month most tech names had. Arm's +21.88% confirms that AI chip design remained a bright spot even as broader tech sold off. Dell's gain likely reflects data center/AI server demand. These names bucked the trend while peers like SMCI and Micron cratered.? Telecom Infrastructure — ⭐⭐⭐⭐ StrongCiena Corp +13.01%Ciena, a fiber networking equipment maker, quietly had a great month. This likely reflects AI-driven demand for network infrastructure upgrades — a less obvious but important beneficiary of the data center buildout.? Social Media — ⭐⭐⭐ NotableTwitter Inc +9.19%Twitter/X's near-10% monthly gain is interesting given it's now privately held — this listing may reflect a pre-acquisition share class or OTC trading. Worth taking with a grain of salt on data accuracy.? Overall Judgment of the WinnersThe monthly winners tell a very clear story: Energy and selective AI chips were the only places to hide. While the broader market was getting hammered (airlines -20%, defense -36%, consumer names -15%), investors rotated hard into oil & gas majors and commodity plays as a defensive move. CF Industries and Occidental leading alongside Marvell and Arm suggests the market rewarded real cash flow and AI infrastructure while punishing speculative growth. This is a classic late-cycle / risk-off rotation pattern — and it's a meaningful warning signal about the broader market's health. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Gold is at the highs of the day, up $161 to $4670.The 3.5% really is the largest since Feb 5 and brings gold back to March 19 levels. The March 17-22 period saw four days of heavy selling in gold that led to a $900 decline from peak to trough. Since then it has stabilized around $4450 until today's bounce.Technically, the $4400 level remains the spot to watch. It held in the early-February rout but was broke on four separate occasions in late March. Notably though, it never closed below it and that could be a lifeline for the bulls. On the upside, the 50% retracement of the March range is $4758 and that could be an initial target for the bulls.Moreso than the technicals, the fundamentals are in full focus right now and gold is trading as a risk proxy. Early in the war, Turkey sold some of its gold reserves and the fear is that other emerging markets will be forced to dump reserves to protect currencies or to cover oil purchases. If there is some kind of resolution to the war, those risks will be significantly curtailed.Secondarily, gold has increasingly become a leveraged long and with all the volatility, those positions were pared. Initially, that was met by buyers but those dried up in mid-March. Since then though, we've seen a standstill and now some strength. It's clear that the strength will continue if there is a quick end to the war.What's less clear is what will happen if the war continues. My instinct is that it will fall but if oil prices don't rise too far because some ships are allowed through Hormuz, then it could make gains. If China gets involved in peace talks, that could also erode USD dominance in the reason and provide another reason for gold bids. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

In the earlier post and video on the USDCHF, I spoke to the battle going on between the double tops a 0.8012 and the swing area between 0.79778 and 0.7989. The price did hold support near the high of the swing area - keeping the buyers in control.In the prior post, I wrote:A break above 0.8012 would open the door toward the next target near 0.8041, which includes the January 15 high and a topside channel trendlineOn the downside:A move back below 0.7978 would shift focus toward 0.7957, followed by the 200-day MA at 0.7945A break below that cluster would give sellers more confidence and force buyers to reassessBottom line:The bias remains bullish while above 0.7978, but buyers need to get through 0.8012 to extend the trend. Failure to do so risks a corrective pullback.The price higher moved up to 0.8042 but found willing sellers against that my from mid-January and also the topside channel trendline. Sellers against that level seen the price move back down toward the 0.8000 level.What next?The sellers against the high target are in play in hoping for the storyline to take the price back below the low of the swing area between 0.79778 and 0.7989. If that can be done, more momentum toward the 200 hour moving average at 0.79449 cannot be ruled out. For the buyers, the aforementioned swing area does remain a level to lean against the stop on a break below. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Axios reports that Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met today in Beijing with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. At the end of the meeting they published a joint peace initiative that includes a five-point plan halting the use of force and opening the Strait of Hormuz.There are strong hints the US isn't opposed but no official word.Trump declined to comment on specifics but told Axios "negotiations with Iran are going well," which is about as close to a tacit endorsement as you'll get from this White House. Reading between the lines: Pakistan has been the key US-Iran mediator throughout this conflict, and they wouldn't be launching a joint initiative with Beijing if Washington had a problem with it.The five points are what you'd expect — ceasefire, peace talks, protection of energy infrastructure, restoration of shipping through the Strait, and a broader peace framework under the UN Charter. The energy infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz provisions are the ones crude traders will be zeroing in on.Note that none of these address Iran's 'demands', though it's unclear if they're in any position to be making demands.The bigger picture here is China positioning itself as a peacemaker in a US-launched war, which is a remarkable geopolitical development. Beijing has the leverage to make this stick — they're Iran's biggest trade partner and top oil buyer. Some of this was out earlier but we're getting more details now. Axios also reported:In a brief phone call, President Trump told me "the negotiations with Iran are going well." Asked specifically about the Pakistani-Chinese initiative, Trump didn't criticize it but simply reiterated that the diplomacy was going wellSo that's that and clearly the market is buying into it with the S&P 500 up 2.5%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We will not accept a ceasefire but rather seek a complete end to the war, not in Iran alone but in the entire regionWe have not responded to the US proposals, nor submitted any counter-proposals or conditions."Have received text messages from Witkoff, that doesn't mean we're negotiatingThe Strait of Hormuz is completely open and closed only to those who fight usThere will be difficulties in rebuilding trust with neighbors but we're confident we willSays Tehran ready for ground confrontationThis doesn't sound like anything new as it's in-line with what's been said for weeks.On the US side though, there are more murmurs that they're confident in ending the war. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said the country is ready to end the war, but only if there are guarantees against future attacks. This isn't particularly new as it's been Iran's position for awhile. There was a WSJ report about security guarantees late last week and there has been talk that China has been contacted to provide the guarantees (no word on whether they're willing) or possibly Pakistan.Since early March, he laid out 'three pillars' for peace, which were the recognition of "legitimate rights" like peaceful nuclear rights, reparations, and firm international guarantees.The difference now is that we've heard it directly from the President, which may be a communication strategy change that is laying the groundwork, or the public acceptance, for a deal. One potential issue is that Pezeshkian may not speak for the IRGC or the military. Americans often hear 'President' and think of it in the US context but decisions on missile strikes or ending the war belong to the Supreme Leader and the IRGC and the President's office is often relegated to protocol and ceremony.Still, it's validation that the US is actually speaking to Iranian officials and that there is some progress towards an end to the war. Increasingly, it looks like the April 6 deadline that Trump set could actually work. At the same time, Iran seems to have halted strikes on the energy infrastructure of neighboring states and both sides are mostly focused on military targets.It's all so precarious though as one bomb or phone call could change everything. In terms of the market, the S&P 500 is up 2.5%.Some of the biggest gainers:United Airlines +7.8%Carnival Cruise Lines +7.2%META +6.8%Freeport-McMoran +6.5%Intel +6.0% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Schmid is a known hawk and doesn't vote until 2028 so his comments don't carry too much weight:Can't be complacent about inflation expectationsFed must follow through with policy action to validate medium-term and long-term expectationsCan't assume oil price inflation will be transitoryHigher energy prices will increase inflation, including core inflationUS economic resilience should not be underestimatedExpected modest drag from sustained higher oil pricesFor a hawk, this isn't exactly screaming from the rooftops and it's why the market has reversed course after briefly pricing in rate hikes. Pricing now shows about a 30% chance of a single cut by December. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Iran (President Pezeshkian - comments are unconfirmed): Says Iran seeks no war but is prepared to end it with guarantees against further attacks Accusations against US/Israel: Calls military actions unprecedented crimes and violations of international law Claims Iran engaged in good-faith talks before being attacked Regional criticism: Says countries hosting U.S. bases failed to prevent their use for attacks on Iran Stated solution: End to aggression as the path forward Iran willing to end conflict if security guarantees are provided Message to Europe: Urges Europe to abandon its current approach Calls for professional engagement aligned with international lawIn other headline news that is not so good is: Iran threat (via Fars News): Could target UAE’s Fujairah port and key oil pipeline Trigger: If UAE continues supporting U.S. and Israeli attacks Objective: Disrupt UAE’s bypass route to the Strait of HormuzEarlier reports (unconfirmed): Iran warned UAE that Fujairah port and Hormuz-linked pipeline could be targeted Condition: If attacks against Iran continueUS stocks have moved, extending the gains:Dow industrial average is up thousand 29 points or 2.27%. S&P index is up 162 points or 2.55%. NASDAQ index is up 675 points or 3.27%.US yields are moving lower with the tenured now down 5 basis points at 4.292%. The 2-year yield is down 6.2 basis points at 3.768%Oil prices have move lower with the price is trading at $101. Although off the highs and now negative on the day, the price remains above the $100 level.The USD has moved to new lows.EURUSD: The EURUSD moved above its 200 hour moving average at 1.1541 and reached a new high of 1.1559. The price is currently trading back near the 200 hour moving average. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The GBPUSD initially rode the wave of dollar selling into the U.S. session, pushing higher as broader USD weakness helped lift the pair. However, that momentum faded quickly, and buying interest dried up, leading to a reversal. The pair has since rotated back toward unchanged on the day, currently trading near 1.3180 after reaching a high of 1.3264.From a technical perspective, the upside move ran out of steam just ahead of a key resistance zone between 1.3272 and 1.3282 (see red numbered circles on the chart above). That area is not just a swing level—it is now reinforced by the falling 100-hour moving average, which is converging near the top of that zone. This confluence increases the importance of that resistance area, making it a critical hurdle for buyers.For the bullish case to regain traction: The price needs to break and stay above 1.3272–1.3282 And importantly, reclaim the falling 100-hour moving average Without that, rallies risk being viewed as corrective rather than directionalOn the downside, the focus shifts back toward today’s earlier low at 1.3159, which marked the lowest level since late November 2025. That move brought the pair into a broader daily swing area between 1.3138 and 1.3178, a zone that is now acting as a key risk-defining support level.Stay within/above this zone = buyers still have a footholdBreak below = bearish bias increases, with traders targeting a move toward the November lows near 1.3000Bottom line: The pair is caught between strong resistance above and critical support below. Buyers had their chance but couldn’t extend. Now the focus shifts to whether support can hold—or if sellers take control and push toward the next leg lower. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDJPY has rotated lower after failing above the 160.00 level, a key psychological and technical barrier. Recall, the pair broke above that level on Friday, reaching a high of 160.455, but the breakout lacked follow-through.Yesterday, the price moved lower and tested an upward sloping trendline, where buyers stepped in and pushed the pair back higher. However, that bounce ran into resistance again near 160.00, with today’s Asian session high stalling just below at 159.959, within a prior swing area.That failure to extend higher gave sellers the green light.The pair turned back down, initially finding support at the trendline, but that support eventually gave way. The price broke below the 200-hour moving average at 159.19, and extended toward the next downside target near 158.81–158.90.The pair is now trading between the 200-hour MA (159.19) and that downside swing area, making this a critical zone:Below the 200-hour MA = sellers remain in control, with downside momentum building Next targets: 158.89, then 158.55Back above 159.19 = sellers lose momentum, and the bias shifts more neutral Bottom line: Sellers are making a play after the failed break above 160.00. The key now is whether they can keep the price below the 200-hour moving average and build momentum lower. If they do, the door opens for a deeper correction. If not, this becomes another failed downside extension in a choppy range.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The buyers in the major stock indices are stepping in after yesterday’s cycle lows and new lows for the year, sparking a relief rally. The bounce is notable, but let’s be clear—it’s still early, and there is work to do before buyers can claim meaningful control on the upside.From a technical perspective, this move is more about stabilization than trend reversal—at least for now.There are clearly defined downside levels that now serve as risk-defining support. As long as the indices can hold above those levels, buyers remain in the game and can build a case for further upside. But if those levels start to give way again, the recent lows come right back into focus.On the topside, buyers still carry the burden of proof. They need to push through resistance levels and sustain momentum to shift the broader bias back higher.That said, the “buy the dip” mentality is still alive, and when capital starts flowing back into the market, it can be a powerful force—especially if the technicals begin to align and support the move.Bottom line: The bounce is a start, not a conclusion. Buyers are back—but they need follow-through to turn this into something more than just a relief rally.PS the story that the high IRGC has a announced that the main institutions effective in terrorist operations will be are legitimate targets the site tech companies including Intel, Oracle, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Meta, IBM, Dell, Palantir, Nvidia, along with other big Names including Boeing, GE, Tesla, J.P. Morgan. Basically, they are targeting all the biggest and influential names in the US stock market.Trying to solve problems, create new problems if you don't think it through. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Other nations can reopen the StraitAsked about reopening the Strait said "I do not think about it, to be honest" and that his sole goal was nuclear weaponMore work to do in Iran warUS doesn't have to be in Iran much longerHere is the article in the New York Post.“We’re not going to be there too much longer. We’re obliterating the s–t out of them right now, it’s a total obliteration"“But we won’t have to be there much longer — but we have more work to do in terms of killing their offensive, whatever offensive capability they have left.”“Well, I think it’ll automatically open, but my attitude is, I’ve obliterated the country. They have no strength left, and let the countries that are using the strait, let them go and open it… because I would imagine whoever’s controlling the oil will be very happy to open the strait, he said.On reopening: “I don’t think about it, to be honest. My sole function was to make sure that they don’t have a nuclear weapon. They’re not going to have a nuclear weapon. When we leave the strait will automatically open.”"we’re dealing right now with a totally different group of people, and they’re much more reasonable than previous, much more reasonable."This is the same stuff he's been saying for awhile.A clear gameplan is unfolding where the US will walk away, declare victory and leave Hormuz for someone else to clean up. Does that mean Iran actually opens it up? I doubt that's the case unless they get something in return but time willtell. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard named 18 companies for retaliation after strikes against its companies:CiscoHPIntelOracleMicrosoftAppleGoogleMetaIBMDELPalantirNvidiaJP MorganTesla GE Spire Solution G42BoeingIt's not clear if this is a warning about striking its companies or something else but Iran warned employees and civilians within 1Km to leave and vowed to strike these corporate facilities in retaliation for any assassinations in Iran.We are seeing a selloff in these names but it coincides with a broader pullback in today's market rally. The S&P 500 had been up 110 points but that's down to 62 points with everything under pressure.For Palantir, Microsoft, and Google, Iran specifically cited their involvement in defense contracts (like Project Maven or cloud services for the IDF) and AI-driven intelligence gathering used to coordinate strikes. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD is seeing a sharp bounce higher, helped by a more supportive macro backdrop. Stocks are moving higher, yields are lower on the day, and oil has come off its highs, all of which are weighing on the USD and giving the pair a lift.From a technical perspective, the move higher has some credibility.The price pushed above the key swing area between 1.1484 and 1.1491, a level highlighted in the Kickstart video as a near-term barometer. Once that zone was cleared, momentum picked up, with the pair extending above the 100-hour moving average at 1.1518 and also reclaiming a previously broken trendline. That combination gave buyers the green light to press higher.However, the rally ran into resistance at the 200-hour moving average near 1.1543, and that level has done its job—for now—stalling the upside move.As a result, the pair is currently trading in a defined range between the 100-hour MA (1.1518) and the 200-hour MA (1.1543). That range is now the key battleground:Above the 200-hour MA = stronger bullish shift, with scope for further recovery Back below the 100-hour MA = upside momentum fades, and sellers regain control Keep in mind, this bounce comes after four consecutive days of declines, which saw the price fall from 1.1620 to yesterday’s low near 1.1443. So, part of today’s move is also a corrective rebound, as buyers step in after the recent stretch lower.Bottom line: The buyers have taken back some control in the short term, but the 200-hour moving average at 1.1543 is the key hurdle. A break above would open the door for a broader recovery, while failure keeps the move more corrective than directional. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview: Tech Takes the LeadThe stock market is buzzing with activity today, driven by a strong performance in the technology sector. Standout performers include Microsoft (MSFT) at +1.76% and Nvidia (NVDA) soaring by an impressive 3.49%. The semiconductor industry, with AVGO at +3.35% and Intel (INTC) at +3.39%, is particularly vibrant, capturing investor interest with solid gains.Communication services are also shining, with Google (GOOG) climbing by 3.02% and Meta (META) by 3.76%. These gains reflect a robust confidence in the sector's long-term growth potential, which is a positive indicator amidst the market dynamics.Market Mood and Trends: Bullish Sentiments and Strategic ShiftsIn general, the market is displaying a bullish sentiment. With consumer cyclicals also performing well—Amazon (AMZN) up by 2.63% and Tesla (TSLA) by 2.88%—investors are showing optimism despite broader economic concerns. This enthusiasm may be rooted in strong quarterly earnings and positive forecasts from these sector-leading companies.Conversely, the consumer defensive sector shows more modest movement, with companies like Coca-Cola (KO) and Procter & Gamble (PG) slightly dipping by -0.51% and -1.05%, respectively. This reflects a strategic shift where investors favor higher growth prospects offered by technology and discretionary industries.Strategic Recommendations: Focus on Growth with a Cautious ApproachGiven the current trends, investors might consider increasing exposure to technology and communication services to capture growth opportunities. However, it would be wise to remain cautious of potential volatility, especially within the tech sector. The evident rise in semiconductor stocks suggests that this industry, in particular, offers appealing avenues for future investments.On the defensive side, a selective approach might be prudent. While some consumer defensive stocks are lagging, these could offer long-term stability as a counterbalance to the more aggressive sectors. Overall, a diversified portfolio remains essential to navigate the varied market landscapes. For further updates and insights, visit InvestingLive.com ?. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

US stock markets are up big today. I laid out the signs of the emerging US strategy lately and it's something they've been tip-toeing towards since the war started. It's basically a cut-and-run strategy where they blow everything up in Iran and then leave the rest of the world with the job of the hard part: Making peace and getting Hormuz open."Go get your own oil," Trump wrote in a message to the world.I don't exactly take that as good news as it will leave Iran with the leverage to keep the Strait closed or run a tolling system. But the market is optimistic, so what gives?There was a report yesterday that said officials from some neighbouring countries were looking towards China to act as a security guarantor of Iran. That may be a path to an actual deal that leaves its energy intact and would allow it to accept a deal, which would obviously need to include sanctions relief as well.Something like that seems to be what the market is pricing in now and only time will tell whether that's misguided. Note that the oil market isn't exactly waving the 'all clear' signal with WTI down 70-cents to $102.20 today.The bounce in stocks could also reflect washed out sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index is in 'extreme fear'.Goldman Sachs also writes:Systematic positioning is now approaching washed-out levels. Our CTA estimates show positioning has flipped to outright short in US equities, which has historically been associated with more supportive near-term price action.We are certainly getting that near-term lift today with the S&P 500 up 1.6% and the Nasdaq up 2.1%.Finally, it's worth a look at the VIX as it's quickly retreated from 30 to 27 but remains elevated. Note though that the shock is nothing compared to Liberation Day. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.