US ISM Services PMIs just got released at 52 vs 51 expectations, a positive surprise. US PMIs – MarketPulse Economic Calendar Prices paid are still way too high for a comfortably dovish FED, but it seems like this component isn't accelerating anymore.For the rest, nothing shocking: The employment component is still in contraction but not disastrous and new orders are increasing again, a positive after the tariff-led decrease.You can access today's ISM report right here.Next step will be tomorrow's NFP release which will shape up, with the September FOMC Meeting (September 18), the tone for the rest of the year.Don't forget to stay in touch with the views from NY FED's Williams coming up at 12:05 (holds high influence on the FED and votes at every meeting) and later today Goolsbee's meetings (voter in 2025).For now the US picture looks like a cooling one (far from catastrophic!). Except for a major downward surprise tomorrow, there shouldn't be any reason to panic.Reactions are small: A global market view Market Overview, September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView Market reactions are very muted as Participants stay put for tomorrow's session – Anxiety is still high.Only notable move would be Cryptocurrencies still seeing some profit-taking flows.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Swiss franc has edged lower on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8052, down 0.13% on the day.Swiss CPI declines in August Swiss inflation declined in August for the first time since January. CPI slipped 0.1%, following the July reading of zero and the market estimate of zero. Yearly, CPI rose 0.2%, unchanged from July and in line with the market estimate.The soft inflation report could support the case for the Swiss National Bank to return to negative interest rates. The SNB had a negative rate policy in effect for eight consecutive years until 2022, when high inflation forced the bank to sharply tighten policy. The markets widely expect the SNB to hold rates at this month's meeting, but if inflation continues to sag, there will be pressure on the central bank to lower rates. SNB President Martin Schlegel has stressed in the past that the central bank could revert back to negative rates if necessary but would try to avoid doing so since it causes difficulties for businesses and consumers.The SNB is also keeping a close eye on the value of the Swiss franc. The Swiss currency has soared against the US dollar, gaining 11.3% since the start of the year. In June, USD/CHF fell below the psychologically significant 0.80 level for the first time 2011. The central bank does not want the franc to continue appreciating, since it means that Swiss exports are more expensive and thus less competitive.US tariffs have dealt a blow to the export-reliant Swiss economy. Switzerland has had to absorb US tariffs of 39% on most goods, which has put the country at a serious disadvantage against the neighboring European Union, which faces tariffs of only 15% on most goods.The US releases a critical non-farm payroll report on Friday, ahead of the Fed meeting on September 17. The market estimate stands at 75 thousand, almost unchanged from the July gain of 73 thousand, which was well below expectations. Another weak reading would likely lead to voices calling for the Fed to deliver a jumbo half-point cut at the upcoming meeting.USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.8045. Next, there is resistance at 0.8054 and 0.80640.8035 and 0.8026 are providing support USDCHF 4-Hour Chart, September 4, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

ADP Private Employment data This morning's data releases – MarketPulse Economic Calendar In the long awaiting for tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls release, Participants can't get enough of more labor data, particularly as ADP employment recently turned out to be a more accurate preview of the US Employment trends (as large revisions to NFP later confirmed. The report came at 54K vs 65K expectations a relatively small miss, but miss nonetheless – and this report reiterates the ongoing downtrend in private employment. ADP Employment in the past 3 years, September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingEconomics Read More: Hesitant equities and (maybe) better relations between US and Canada — North American mid-week Market updateMarkets Already Looking to NFPJobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs The Jobless claims rose to 237K from 230K, with the continuing claims still hanging around November 2021 levels. Continuing Claims since 2023 – A steep rise – Source: TradingEconomics The FED will still be appreciating the Unit Labor Cost data which came at 1% instead of 1.6%, which will help with inflationary pressures.In case you didn’t know, Unit Labor Costs measure how much businesses pay workers to produce one unit of output. Rising costs signal wage pressures and potential inflation, while falling costs suggest easing price pressures.Market reactions are very slow as Markets seem to not exaggerate tomorrow's NFP release which may still differentiate largely from this morning's reports.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Baseline: +74k NFP; unemployment rising to 4.3% from 4.2%.July: +73k with -258k net downward revisions; mounting political pressure on the BLS.Labour demand is cooling: Atlanta Fed Job-Switchers wage growth 4.3% y/y; NFIB shows vacancies easier to fill.Implications: tilts toward a 17 Sep Fed cut; risks from upside surprises and data-quality uncertainty. The August employment report is likely to confirm a cooling in labour demand and reinforce a dovish signal for the Federal Reserve. We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by about 74k, with the unemployment rate increasing from 4.2% to 4.3%. US unemployment rate, source: Bloomberg. Lessons from July: data, revisions, and political pressure Last month unsettled markets not only because payroll growth in July was weak at 73k, but also because May and June were revised down by a combined 258k. In response, President Donald Trump accused the Bureau of Labor Statistics of manipulation and dismissed its head the same day. He has nominated the chief economist of a conservative think tank as successor, but the appointment still requires Senate confirmation. This raises concerns about politicisation of the statistical process and the credibility of subsequent releases. US employment change, Bloomberg data. Supply or demand: what is slowing hiring Tighter immigration policy may have constrained labour supply at the margin, but it could be a secondary factor. Evidence points more clearly to softer demand for workers. Household surveys indicate that finding a job has become more difficult. According to the Atlanta Fed, job switchers no longer enjoy higher wage gains than job stayers. The NFIB survey shows small firms are finding it easier to fill vacancies. These signals align with a deceleration in hiring.On the chart of the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker – Job Switchers (i.e., the median wage growth of people who changed jobs over the past year), wage dynamics are steadily slowing to 4.3% year on year in July 2025. This points to a fading job-switching premium and weakening demand for workers, which typically eases wage pressure in services and supports disinflation. The current level is close to conditions seen before the post-pandemic boom, thus arguing for a more accommodative Fed policy. Chart of the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker – Job Switchers, source: Bloomberg August forecast: 74k jobs and a higher unemployment rate Given the scale of recent revisions, the initial print should be read with caution. Market baseline is a 74k increase in payrolls, close to July’s 73k. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the US unemployment rate to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%., reflecting weaker demand for labour.Implications for Fed policy Such an outcome would strengthen the case for a rate cut at the 17 September meeting. Moderating payrolls and a higher jobless rate would support a gradual shift toward easier policy, especially after the sizeable downward revisions weakened the recent labour market narrative. At the same time, uncertainty around the integrity of the statistical process argues for care in interpreting first releases.Market implications Softer labour data would typically pull down front-end yields and reinforce a gentler rate path, which often weighs on the US dollar against risk-sensitive currencies and supports assets that benefit from a lower rate. However, questions about data quality could keep near-term volatility elevated across rates, FX, and equities.Risks and watchpoints Upside surprises in payrolls, particularly if accompanied by firm wage growth, could temper dovish pricing. Another round of negative revisions would deepen the perception of cooling. The interaction between job growth, unemployment, and pay dynamics will determine both the strength and the speed of any policy easing. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USDJPY, one of the most volatile FX pairs is still holding within a tight range as traders turn to metals with Gold making new all-time highs and Silver racing towards a fresh record.FED's Waller appeared with comments this morning, foreshadowing a Rate cut at the upcoming 18th of September FOMC Meeting but the outlook for the pace of cuts is still uncertain.As mentioned in our most recent USDJPY piece, the Bank of Japan would rather the Federal Reserve to move first to reduce the interest rate differential between the US and Japan which is detrimental to the Yen and hurting Japanese citizens' buying power.As a matter of fact, BoJ Governor Ueda met Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba in a bi-annual meeting to discuss Japanese and global market outlooks. With Yields rising strongly (Japan's 20Y and 30Y yields breaking 4 decade highs) while the BoJ tries to hold rates relatively low to stimulate inflation, challenges keep arising for the Yen.Still holding the range strongly, players are looking to confirm the future outlook for the US Dollar which will decide in which direction the pair breaks out, and the answer will come after Friday's Job release. Read More: Dow Jones forms rising wedge ahead of NFP and FED's Waller comments on rate cuts – what it means for the indexUSDJPY 8H Chart and technicals USDJPY 8H Chart, September 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView The traditionally volatile pair has been stuck in a 2,000 pip range since the beginning of August, with traders desperately awaiting for a clearer path ahead.US Labor data and the uncertainty it's been holding is hurting trend traders but has helped participants who prefer rangebound conditions.Friday's 8:30 Non-Farm Payrolls release will be more than consequential and has high probability of triggering a breakout.For bulls, look for a break above above the range highs between 148.70 to 149.50 in the case of a strong Friday NFP release (a strong beat would reduce total rate cuts = bullish for the pair)Bears would on the other hand seek for a break below the 146.00 to 146.50 range lows, supported by the 200-period Moving Average (currently at 145.52).Today, the US Dollar is seeing some decent selling after this morning's miss in JOLTS job openings data which confirms the deceleration of the US Job market, the question for Friday is to what extent.Technical levels for USDJPY trading Resistance Levels149.12 daily highsMay range extremes from 148.70 to 149.50 (daily MA 200 in confluence)150.00 to 150.90 July resistance Support LevelsPivot at the 148.00 zone (acting as immediate support, 50H MA in confluence)146.50 key support (200 MA in confluence)145.00 psychological supportSafe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

GBPUSD has found support after a selloff on Tuesday caused largely by fiscal concerns which has UK gilt yields to edge higher. The 30-year gilts reached a high of 5.595%, the highest level in 25 years.Despite all the concerns around UK Gilt Yields, it is important to note that the selloff was widespread across Europe, with Japan following suit in the Asian session today. The other concern for the Pound stems from fiscal sustainability. Market participants are wondering if the government can fix the budget problem and stop adding more debt without making big, strict changes.Cable dropped to a low on Tuesday around the 1.3440 handle. However, this is a key apport level and it would appear that cable bulls have once again found their legs.Comments by UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves that the administration will focus on "bringing inflation and borrowing costs down by keeping a tight grip on day-to-day spending and enforcing fiscal rules", have also provided some relief to the Pound Sterling.Read More: Gold Hits All-Time High Amid Flight to SafetyHowever, given Government plans moving forward there remains more questions than answers. Chancellor Rachel Reeves plans to raise 50 billion GBP in taxes in this upcoming budget meaning further pressure on businesses and consumers may be on the horizon.Should the government go ahead with its proposed plans to lower the VAT threshold, this could have an impact on the SME sector and thus damage the UKs attractiveness for investment.All in all the picture for the GBP does not look positive moving forward, especially given my view of further rate cuts from the BoE. I can see GBP struggling in the weeks ahead.US Dollar Index (DXY) and NFP The US dollar index has enjoyed a positive start to the week, but that optimism appears to be fading ahead of the highly anticipated NFP release on Friday.Just a short while ago we heard comments from Federal Reserve Policymaker Rafael Bostic saying “I am not ruling out a September rate cut depending on the coming jobs report and other data.” If you didn't understand the weight of this week's job data I hope these comments shed some light on the fact.The US Dollar is dealing with its own set of challenges and concerns around Fed independence.The DXY at this stage is at a crucial inflection point ahead of the NFP release. A strong print could help the USD recover while weak job numbers could lead the DXY to fresh YTD lows.The technical picture does hint at further upside for the DXY given that we have printed a triple bottom pattern which would hint at further upside.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, September 3, 2025 Source: TradingView Technical Analysis - GBP/USD From a technical point of view, GBP/USD has been stuck in a range between the 1.3584 and 1.3378 since August 7.Market participants will be hoping that the NFP release could be a catalyst to push cable toward a breakout and substantial move, regardless of the direction. Traders after all thrive on volatility.TTodays bounce off support for cable does appear to have some momentum, but the RSI period-14 remains below the 50 handle which hints at bearish momentum.A break above the 50 on the RSI and a potential move above the 1.3500 handle may bring more buyers to the table.Any such move though is highly unlikely ahead of the NFP release.GBP/USD Daily Chart, September 3, 2025 Source: TradingView Client Sentiment Data - GBP/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are long on the GBP/USD with 55% of traders net-long. Much like the range we are seeing on GBP/USD the sentiment data does little to provide any insights except reflect that traders remain indecisive as to Cables next move.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US indices just concluded a decent month after a scary monthly open, with the Dow Jones up 3.44% in August. With this month commencing, participants are expecting high volatility ahead.Traders can remember how volatile the prior day to the July NFP and the actual release were – Looking at the state of current state of Markets, a calm before the storm situation is looming. Indeed, with the pricing of rate cuts still subject to change, Markets are still expecting some change in stance: there is just a bit more than 2 FED cuts priced in towards the rest of the year.(a little fundamental parenthesis before the Dow Jones charts)FED's Waller, who is one of the appointees to replace Jerome Powell in May 2026 and made headlines for his dovish comments ahead of the prior month Labor data release, appeared again this morning mentioning that the FED should start cutting soon "because usually when the labor market turns bad, it turns bad fast".He wants to get ahead of the curve there, understandably when looking at the actual US Job growth the past three months.The JOLTS job openings data recently releases below expectations 7.181M vs 7.378M expected – which may further shows signs of deceleration in the labor market.Waller did emphasize that he wouldn't know how much fast the FED would get to neutral (100 to 150 bps are his estimates) and that tariffs were still a tax on US citizens — He still maintained a neutral tone, surely to not hurt his future job opportunities prospects.Christopher Waller is currently the favorite for the Chair in May 2026. Current betting odds on who will be appointed as FED Chair, September 3, 2025 – Source: Kalshi Anyways, let's tackle the multi-timeframe analysis for the Dow. Read More: Why are government bond yields rising so much as of late?Dow Jones multi-timeframe analysisUS 30 Daily chart – concerns about the Rising Wedge? Dow Jones Daily Chart, September 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls release Equities are trading mixed, with only Google demarking from its peers (up a staggering 8.53% as I'm writing this).Only Nasdaq is up a decent amount today with more profit-taking happening in the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 trading mixed.The Dow Jones is currently selling off (still not too harshly) – One of the technical elements to be wary about, is the formation of a daily Rising wedge which tends to form the end of uptrends.Fundamentals still have the chance to break the pattern after NFP, and for that, bulls will have to break above the wedge highs.RSI momentum is heading downwards but do keep in mind that above 45,000 and the 50-Day MA (44,630), the current trend is still firm.US 30 4H chart Dow Jones 4H Chart, September 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow is trading mixed in today's session, held within the key 45,000 Pivot Zone located between the psychological level and the 45,285 previous all-time highs.Awaiting for a change to the fundamentals, traders are holding their breathLevels of interest for Dow Jones Trading:Resistance Levels4H 50-period MA 45,420Current All-time high 45,764ATH Resistance Zone 45,700 (+/- 150 pts)1.618 Fibonacci-Extension for potential ATH resistance 46,260Support LevelsPrevious ATH resistance zone, now pivot 45,000 to 45,280 (daily highs)45,000 psychological level and low of rising wedge44,400 to 44,500 Main SupportUS 30 1H Chart Dow Jones 1H Chart, September 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView After forming a short-term double-top, the Index has corrected slightly with prices forming sideways momentum.A tight range (45,288 highs – 44,916 lows) is forming ahead of Friday's key release, however, days before labor data tend to see strong moves as certain traders place bets while others close positions.Look for breakouts above or below the tight range for pre-NFP volatility, and keep an eye on the Daily rising wedge.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold at record high: Gold surged to $3,549.66/oz, up 33% in 2025, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty.Fed policy drives momentum: Expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and political interference fears boost precious metals demand.Silver outshines gold: Silver breaks $40/oz for the first time since 2011, up 40% YTD, fueled by industrial demand and tight supply.Gold Hits All-Time High Amid Flight to Safety Gold prices reached a new all-time high of $3,549.66 per ounce, reflecting a broader trend of growing investor appetite for safe-haven assets amid worsening sentiment in global equity and bond markets, and rising political and economic uncertainty. In just the past seven trading sessions, gold has climbed by over 5%, and since the beginning of the year, the metal has gained more than 33%, making it one of the best-performing assets of 2025. Daily chart of Gold, source: TradingView Fed Rate Cut Expectations Fuel Momentum The rally in gold is primarily driven by expectations of an upcoming rate-cutting cycle by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which enhances the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold. Investors are also reacting to growing concerns about the Fed’s independence — President Trump has reportedly considered removing one of the central bank’s board members, raising fears about the future direction of monetary policy. Additional uncertainty stems from fiscal instability in developed economies and ongoing geopolitical tensions, both of which are pushing capital toward precious metals. Probabilities of changes to the Fed rate, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices., source: CME FedWatch Tool Silver Outpaces Gold on Industrial and Investment Demand Silver has shown an even more impressive performance, breaking above $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011. Year-to-date, silver is up by approximately 40%, outperforming gold both in terms of return and demand dynamics. Beyond macroeconomic factors, silver is also benefiting from robust industrial demand, particularly in the green technology sector — including solar panels and other renewable energy components. The physical silver market is facing its fifth consecutive year of supply deficit, which is fueling investor interest in silver-backed ETFs. Shrinking inventories in London vaults and persistently high leasing costs (around 2%) point to tight physical availability of the metal.In the near term, the precious metals market is expected to remain highly sensitive to political and macroeconomic developments. Investors are awaiting a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court on the legality of removing a Fed board member, as well as the announcement of a new nominee for Fed Chair — Jerome Powell is set to step down in May 2026. Upcoming U.S. labor market data will also be crucial in shaping the Fed’s next monetary policy moves. Adding to the uncertainty is the ongoing trade dispute, with President Trump announcing plans to appeal a court decision that ruled parts of existing tariffs illegal — a move that could further escalate global trade tensions. Daily chart of Silver, source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian dollar has rebounded on Wednesday and is in postive territory. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6532, up 0.19%. The Aussie declined 0.52% on Tuesday, ending a streak of five consecutive winning sessions.Aussie GDP hits fastest pace in nearly two yearsAustralian GDP grew 1.8% y/y in the second quarter, above the revised 1.4% gain in Q1 and higher than the market estimate of 1.6%. This was the fastest pace of growth since Q3 2023. Quarterly, GDP expanded 0.6%, up from a revised 0.3% in Q1 and above the market estimate of 0.5%. The improvement was driven by stronger household consumption and increased government spending.The stronger-than-expected GDP reading essentially rules out a rate cut at the September 30 meeting. The Reserve Bank has adopted a cautious stance to policy easing and has cut in February, May and August. The markets expect a hold in September, with a November cut priced in at around 75%. That decision will be largely based on the employment and inflation reports ahead of the November meeting. The RBA is keeping a close eye on inflation, which jumped to 2.8% in July, up sharply from 1.9% a month earlier. This was the highest level since July 2024, but the RBA won't change policy based on one monthly inflation report. Inflation had been on a downtrend and the 1.9% gain was lower than the RBA's target range of 2-3%. The central bank is also keeping a close eye on the labor market, which has shown signs of gradual easing.AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6535. The next resistance lines are 0.6546 and 0.65620.6508 and 0.6492 are providing support AUDUSD 4-Hour Chart, September 3, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Why are government bond yields rising so much as of late?The summer lull appears to be over with September off to a rocking and volatile start for global markets. Stock markets have not started September on the front foot, which isn't a surprise given that it is a notoriously tricky month for US equity markets.The US exchanges reopened after the holiday, and nerves rose. Some traders have long felt that stock prices are maybe too high, especially as the economy shows signs of slowing. At the same time, political talk about trade tariffs adds to the doubt, and there are whispers that the Federal Reserve could be feeling pressure from the President. The tip of the iceberg appeared on Tuesday when new questions surfaced over the weekend about whether the President’s tariffs are even legal. That doubt was enough to push both stocks and bonds down.Consequently, most market participants expect more swings this week, particularly before Friday’s big NFP jobs report. There remains a possibility that the volatility could simply be a short‑term reaction, not a sign of a deeper problem. The road ahead looks uncertain, and market participants will watch closely.This is backed up by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model. The model projects that US real GDP will expand at a 3.5% annualized rate in Q3 2025, suggesting steady and robust economic growth. Source: IsabelNet, Blue Chip financial forecasts The CBOE Market Volatility index .VIX touched its highest mark in over four weeks, while a selloff in the global bond market also raised concern. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which rise when bond prices drop, surged by nearly five basis points to 4.269%, while 30-year yields surged to their highest since mid-July.When bond yields rise they become more attractive and usually lead to an outflow in equities and a pivot into bonds.September Seasonal Woes Historically, September is the worst-performing month for US stocks—this holds true for the past 10 years, 20 years, and going back to 1950. It is rare to see both August and September finish higher in a post-election year. Source: IsabelNet, Carson Investment Research One possible reason the stock market is often weak in September is that it's when investors return from their summer vacations and get back to work. They often sell stocks they no longer want to "clean up" their investments and make changes for tax purposes before the end of the year.The Week Ahead Investors are paying very close attention to the U.S. jobs report that will be released this Friday. The report will give market participants a clue about how much the Fed might cut interest rates in the coming months.However, if inflation remains a problem, the Fed may not be able to lower rates as much as market participants are hoping.Market participants will be watching the confirmation hearing for Stephen Miran, who is the President's choice for a temporary position at the Fed. This is significant because it's happening at a time when the President is increasing his public attacks on the Fed. He has been constantly criticizing the Fed's chairman, Jerome Powell, for not cutting interest rates and is also trying to get another member, Lisa Cook, removed from her position.Markets have been concerned about Fed independence and this remains a key topic of discussion which could have an impact on sentiment. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - Dow Jones Index From a technical standpoint, the Dow Jones index saw whipsaw price action on Tuesday with the index down as much as 1% before recovering in the second half of the day to finish the day down 0.57%.Looking at the four-hour chart below, the Dow has seen a change in structure as it printed a lower low.Price is however stuck now between the 50 and 100-day MAs which rests at 45508 and 45195 respectively.A break below the 100-day MA could open up the possibility of a retest of the 200-day MA at 44880 with the next key support area resting at 44118.Dow Jones Four-Hour Chart, September 2, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - DOW JONES Index Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are short on the DOW with 77% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are short means the Dow Jones Index could rise in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

We are assisting at a very mixed picture across different asset classes – Equities are down after the long weekend, the US Dollar is up but correcting from its highs since the ISM Manufacturing PMI report, and Cryptocurrencies are sluggish, but showing signs of rebound.After sending worrying signs throughout the past week of price action, with Bitcoin correcting for the whole past week and Ethereum marking a new record in a weak-looking price action, cryptos are finding a floor with traders bracing for the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls.Bitcoin has for example marked an intermediate low at around $107,000 at the extreme of its previous ATH support area and rebounding since, while Ethereum opens the week off its $4,200 lows.Bitcoin holding above $100,000 still paints a broadly positive picture for cryptos, but markets are starting to be more careful at the recent highs. A huge boost to sentiment should be needed to push BTC to a renewed ATH but everything is possible.However, Solana is still holding decent momentum.In the preparation of this shortened week of compact action (volumes were down hard yesterday due to a prolonged Labor Day weekend), let's have a look at intraday charts and levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Solana.For reference, here is our previous Crypto market analysis. Read More:US Dollar strengthens after Labor Day – DXY technical outlookEuro CPI ticks higher, US ISM Mfg. PMI misses estimate, euro lowerAn overlook on the Cryptocurrency Market Crypto market overview, September 2, 2025 – Source: Finviz Technical analysis for the major cryptocurrenciesBitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart Bitcoin 4H Chart, September 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin has recently rebounded on the $106,000 to $108,000 minor support area and is now consolidating within its major previous ATH Support.Breaking above would bring back bullish trends back to life – for now, the picture for the intermediate term is mixed and the short-term picture is still slightly bearish, as the action is evolving within a downwards channel (as seen on the chart) and the 4H MA 50 crossed below the MA 200.A soft beat on NFP expectations would be the goldilocks conditions for Bitcoin as the FED would still be expected to cut rates while sentiment wouldn't degrade too harshly – A strong miss could send fears of a too-late FED, while a strong beat would take out hopes for cuts.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$110,000 to $112,000 previous ATH support zone (currently getting tested)$106,000 to $108,000 Minor support$100,000 Main support at psychological levelResistance Levels:$112,000 previous ATH – immediate resistance level$115,000 to $117,000 Pivot Zone (most recent rejection)Major Resistance $122,000 to $124,500Current all-time high $124,596Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart ETH 4H Chart, September 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum has weakened since its past week new All-time high (around $4,950). Some technical concerns could be noted due to the sharp rejection right after marking its new record, not the best sign for continuation (watch Bitcoin's previous $72,000 ATH in November 2021 if you haven't).Nonetheless, the action is still far from bearish and points more towards consolidation as long a prices hold above the $4,000 to $4,095 pivot region.With buyers holding steady at the $4,200 level, bulls haven't given up anything yet – More on this as the week progresses. Don't forget that decisive momentum should pick up after Friday's US NFP release.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:$4,200 to $4,300 consolidation Zone (getting tested)$4,000 to $4,095 Main Long-run Pivot$3,500 Main Support ZoneResistance Levels:$4,460 MA 50 (acting as immediate resistance)$4,950 Current new All-time highs$4,700 to $4,950 All-time high resistance zonePotential main resistance $5,230 Fibonacci extension.Ripple (XRP) 4H Chart XRP 4H Chart, September 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ripple is going through a profit-taking phase, having breached the $3.00 that was acting as a key psychological level.Now evolving within a downwards channel, it seems that the path is for gradual correction. Some buyers have stepped in at the $2.60 Support zone, which will be one of the last barriers before a retest of the previous break (around $2.20) would get higher probabilities of happening.Levels of interest for XRP trading:Support Levels:$2.60 to 2.70 immediate support (getting tested)$2.20 to $2.30 next key support$2.00 psychological levelResistance Levels:4H MA 50 $2.80$3.00 Key momentum pivot, now acting as resistanceCurrent ATH resistance around $3.66Solana (SOL) 4H Chart SOL 4H Chart, September 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Solana's price action is probably the most bullish out of all other cryptos. The biggest rival for Ethereum's dominance has held its upward channel and recently tested its upper bound.The technical short-timeframe top has led to some small profit taking, but the action stays bullish above the $185 Momentum pivot which coincides with the middle of the channel, essential for momentum analysis.Levels of interest for SOL trading:Support Levels:$185 momentum pivot and recent swing lows$160 Major support and low of channel$150 psychological SupportResistance Levels:$200 Psychological Level (getting tested)current highs $216 and top of upward channelCurrent all-time high $295Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US dollar has posted sharp gains against most of the majors on Tuesday. In the North American session,EUR/USD is trading at 1.1672, down 0.33% on the day. The euro fell as smuch as 0.84% today but has recovered most of those losses after soft US manufacturing data.Eurozone CPI ticks up to 2.1%Eurozone inflation ticked higher in August to 2.1% y/y, up from 2.0% in July. This was just above the market estimate of 2.0%. Services inflation, which has been sticky, eased to 3.1% from 3.2%. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, was unchanged at 2.3% y/y for a fourth consecutive time, above the market estimate of 2.2%. The core rate remained at its lowest level since October 2021.The calm in inflation means that the European Central Bank is likely to continue to maintain its key deposit rate at 2.0% at the September 11 meeting. Still, the ECB has its doves who favor further rate cuts in order to kick-start the weak eurozone economy. As well, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates this month, which will put pressure on the ECB to also lower rates. The central bank has inflation under control but is also concerned about inflation undershooting the 2% target.ISM Manufacturing PMI misses forecastThe US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7 in August, up from 48.0 in July but below the market estimate of 49.0. Manufacturing has been in the doldrums, with six straight readings below 50, which indicates contraction. There was a rebound in new orders but production and employment showed declines.The weak global economy and the impact of counter-tariffs on US goods continues to dampen manufacturing activity, with little indication that the situation will improve anytime soon.EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD has pushed below support at 1.1687 and is putting pressure on 1.1662. Next, there is support at 1.1638There is resistance at 1.1711 and 1.1736 EURUSD 1-Day Chart, September 2, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets just received the report for the US ISM Manufacturing data, which missed slightly on expectations – The monthly release came at 48.7 vs 49.0 consensus – Still in contraction territory.US manufacturing is closely monitored by participants since US President Trump's mandate to bring back US production on top – his bet still has to show more results as the ISM Manufacturing PMI is still below the key 50.0 mark.Despite the rebound from the prior 48.0 report, Tariffs are still showing that they can bite and influence data quite largely.You can access the report right here.The US Dollar is weakening after testing the highs of its range and this phenomenon is accelerating since the data release.Discover the reactions for US Equities (Nasdaq), US Treasuries and EURUSD just below. Read More: US Dollar strengthens after Labor Day – DXY technical outlookLive Market reactionsNasdaq Index 5m Nasdaq 5M chart, September 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView EURUSD 5m – US Dollar rejects its higher bound, Euro takes a breather EURUSD 5M chart, September 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView US 10Y Bonds rebound – 4H chart US 10Y Bond 4H chart, September 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Traders are getting back to their desks after a prolonged weekend – Both the United States and Canada were celebrating Labor Day yesterday.The week prior to Labor Day tends to see slower movement and thinner volumes and despite recent volatility, this year was not an exception.Rangebound conditions have dominated currency markets since Powell's change of tone which shook up rate expectations for the FED – The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, coming up on September 18, is close to a promised cut (90% of a 25 bps cut priced in).Volatility is now back on its feet to kick off the month.With the UK Government bonds opening the week with fresh concerns, a huge selloff in Gilts is leading another rout in the Bond market – With the GBP hurting at the same time. Read More:GBP/USD Technical: Sterling torpedoed by spike in 30-year gilt yield These concerns combined with a failure from bears to push the Greenback below its prior week range, and rising geopolitical tension around the globe are hurting sentiment. US Index futures (pre-open for Equities) are in the red and cryptocurrencies attempted a rebound which got rejected – The US Dollar on the other hand is shining.A past week Dollar Index analysis had emitted the hypothesis that bears had the fundamentals to take control of the action, but their hesitancy paints another picture.Is a longer-run rebound close? We'll take a look at that right now.An overlook at the daily picture in the FX Market FX Market overview – September 2, 2025 – Source: Finviz Dollar Index technical outlookDXY Daily chart Dollar Index Daily chart, September 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is putting up a strong bull candle ahead of today's ISM US Manufacturing report (coming up at 10:00 A.M.)Despite the current data having the potential to influence the current flows, it seems that currency markets are more looking at US bond yields that are strengthening while Index futures are weakening – this underpins the USD.Hanging around the higher timeframe 98.00 Pivot zone, the rebound is exacerbated by hesitant USD sellers – with bets on a lower dollar increasing since Jackson Hole, you can expect a failed move to see reversals like the one from today.RSI is still neutral but rising, however one thing to keep in mind is that the Friday Non-Farm Payrolls report will have the most influence on the future price action for all markets and particularly in the US.DXY 4H chart Dollar Index 4H chart, September 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer to the 4H Chart, it seems that rangebound conditions still have a high possibility of holding – As I write this piece, mean-reversion USD sellers have appeared at the upper bound of the prior week range.Held in a range between 97.60 lows to around 98.80 since the 11th of August, participants have tried without success to provide meaningful direction to the Greenback.As always, the Non-Farm Payrolls report is making every participants hold their breath.Levels to watch for the Dollar Index (DXY):Support Levels:98.00 Pivot (key for immediate momentum, immediate support)Lower bound of the upward channel 97.60 to 97.802025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Resistance Levels:US Dollar range Highs 98.8298.50 to 98.80 Resistance ZoneMid-line of the ascending channel and psychological level 99.50100.00 Main resistance zoneDollar Index 1H chart Dollar Index 1H chart, September 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView It will be interesting to spot if players want to prolong the already extensive moves in FX after the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing report.Don't forget to log in for our headline piece.Safe Trades and successful week! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Japanese yen is sharply lower on Tuesday and has fallen to a two-week low. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.62, up 1.0% on the day.BoJ Deputy Governor says rate hike comingBank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Tuesday that the central bank would raise rates if conditions were appropriate. Himino said there were "upside and downside risks for economy and inflation", citing the tight labor market and global economic uncertainty as upside inflation risks and tariffs and commodity prices as downward price risks. Himino said that the impact of US tariffs could be "smaller or larger than expected" and the BoJ woul have to carefully assess the situation. The remarks reflect a genuine uncertainty over the tariffs, as US President Trump has been erratic is his trade policy. Japan and the US have reached a deal in which most Japanese products will be tariffed at 15%, but some sticking points remain, such as Japan's import of US rice.Himino didn't provide any clues as to the timing of a rate hike but the markets are anticipating a hike in October or December. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bensen called out the BoJ in August, saying it had fallen behind the curve in the fight against inflation and needed to raise rates. Those hawish remarks raised expectations of a rate hike.The deputy governor added that underlying inflation is still below the 2% target but it is rising and will hit the target. This is another hawkish signal from the BoJ that it plans to move towards normalization and a rate hike is only a question of timing.ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to contractThe US will release ISM Manufacturing PMI later today. Manufacturing has been in the doldrums, with five straight readings below 50, which indicates contraction. The market estimate for August stands at 49.0, which would be an improvement from the July reading of 48.0, the weakest level since October 2024. The weak global economy and the impact of counter-tariffs on US goods continues to dampen manufacturing activity.USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 147.22 and is putting pressure on 147.83. The next resistance line is 148.31146.74 is providing support USDJPY 4-Hour Chart, September 2, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Arrests Two-Day Slide Most Read: GBP/USD Technical: Sterling torpedoed by spike in 30-year gilt yield, watch the 1.3315/3280 key supportThe Asian session saw muted trade this morning as market participants waited for the U.S. markets on Wall Street to open after their long holiday weekend.In Japan, the Nikkei recovered after two successive days of losses. Investor confidence was boosted by two main factors: the hope that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon, and strong sales reports from Japanese department stores. It was an up-and-down day of trading. The Nikkei was down at one point, but it recovered to finish the day with a small gain of 0.3%. Another major Japanese stock index, the Topix, had an even better day, rising by 0.6%.Market participants are looking to the U.S. for direction, especially since September has often been a weak month for stocks. Similarly, markets across Asia were mixed, going up and down by small amounts without any clear trend.The biggest activity in the Asian session came from Gold where the precious metal printed a fresh all-time high. Gold sailed past $3,500 per ounce to a high of $3508.5/oz before settling and then falling back to trade at $3476/oz at the time of writing.For more on Gold prices, read Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Bullish acceleration supported rising implied volatility.European Open - European Stocks Retreat Long-term bond yields in Britain and France reached their highest levels in more than ten years. This happened because investors are increasingly worried about the financial situation of countries worldwide.When bond yields go up, their prices go down. The yields on very long-term bonds, like 30-year ones, have been rising globally. Investors are concerned about the large amount of debt in countries from Japan to the United States, but Britain and France are especially in the spotlight.This concern also hurt the stock market. Europe's main stock index, the Stoxx 600, dropped by 0.6%, with real estate stocks that are sensitive to interest rates falling by almost 2%. The FTSE and DAX stock indexes also went down in early trading, by 0.3% and 1.14%, respectively.On the FX front, the British pound dropped more than 1% against the dollar to 1.3402, making it the weakest it's been against the euro in almost a month. The U.S. dollar went up by 0.86% against the Japanese yen, reaching 148.47 yen.The euro also strengthened against both the pound and the yen, rising by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. Overall, the dollar's value increased by 0.7% against a group of other major currencies.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased on Tuesday. This was due to growing concerns that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could disrupt oil supplies. The market was also trying to figure out if new U.S. jobs data would be weak enough to cause the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.Brent crude oil went up by $1.12, or 1.6%, to $69.27 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by $1.77, or 2.77%, to $65.78 a barrel.For a more in depth and technical look at Oil, read WTI Oil Rallies 1% and Eyes Break of Key Confluence Level. Could a Rally to $70/Barrel Finally Materialize?Eurozone Inflation Data In August 2025, consumer prices in the Euro area went up by 2.1%, which was a bit more than what was expected and also a little higher than July's rate. This was mainly due to food prices, which increased by 5.5%, and energy costs, which didn't drop as much as they did the month before.At the same time, the cost of services went up a little less, and prices for things like processed food, alcohol, and tobacco also rose at a slightly slower rate. The cost of non-energy industrial goods stayed the same. The core inflation rate, which doesn't include prices for energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, stayed at 2.3%—its lowest since January 2022.Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be quiet moving forward after Euro Area inflation data was released..The US session will bring some high impact data in the form of PMI data. Service data is always important for the US as it is largely a service driven economy.Moving forward, sentiment will be key and likely hinge on any news on the geopolitical front ahead of US jobs data this week. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX Index has continued its slide after finding resistance at the confluence area around the 24000 handle.The Index is down around 1.3% on the day and now testing the 100-day MA which rests at the 23700 handle. Failure to hold here could see the index extend its losses toward the swing low at 23384 before the 23212 handle comes back into focus.A move higher here will first need to break above the 24000 handle and the 20 and 50 day MAs resting just above.If the DAX is able to clear those hurdles, then a retest of the top of the bull flag pattern may materialize.DAX Daily Chart, September 1. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Push up towards medium-term range resistance zone as Fed’s independence erodes”, published on 26 August 2025.The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have staged the expected bullish move, rallied by 2.3% and hit the US$3,435 resistance as highlighted in our earlier publication last Friday, 29 August. The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have staged the expected bullish move, rallied by 2.3% and hit the US$3,435 resistance as highlighted in our earlier publication last Friday, 29 August.For a quick recap, the US$3,435 is considered a significant range resistance on Gold (XAU/USD) as this level has managed to stall prior rallies since its current all-time high of US$3,500 printed on 22 April 2025 and caused Gold (XAU/USD) to oscillate in a choppy sideways range in the past four months.Gold (XAU/USD) has finally managed to have a proper bullish breakout above the four-month range resistance of US$3,435 in last Friday’s US session, as it recorded a daily close of US$3,447 on 29 August in light of an anticipation of a US Federal Reserve's dovish pivot in September.Gold (XAU/USD) extended its upward momentum at the start of the week, advancing 0.8% to close at US$3,476 on Monday, 1 September.In this latest report, we will highlight several key technical elements that Gold (XAU/USD) has entered into a potential short to medium-term bullish acceleration phase.Let’s discuss them in detail, as well as the next short-term directional bias and key levels to watch on Gold (XAU/USD) Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 2 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term trend as of 2 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) with GVZ (implied volatility of Gold ETF) as of 2 Sep2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain bullish bias on Gold (XAU/USD) as the yellow metal kickstarts a potential bullish acceleration phase (see Fig. 1).Watch the US$3,451 key short-term pivotal support. A clearance above US$3,500 (the current all-time high) will see the next intermediate resistances coming in at US$3,520/3,524 and US$3,536/3,548 (Fibonacci extension clusters).Key elements The hourly MACD trend indicator of Gold (XAU/USD) has just flashed out an impending bullish crossover signal above its centreline, which suggests that short-term bullish momentum remains intact (see Fig. 1).The recent bullish breakout in the Gold (XAU/USD) above US$3,435 marks an exit from a bullish continuation range configuration, defined as a bullish “Ascending Triangle”. These observations increase the odds of a continuation of its prior impulsive up move sequence (see Fig. 2).The daily MACD trend indicator of Gold (XAU/USD) has continued to trend upwards above its centreline after its earlier bullish crossover on Monday, August 25, 2025, which supports a potential change in medium-term trend conditions from sideways to bullish (see Fig. 2).The Cboe Gold exchange-traded fund implied volatility (GVZ) has entered into a low volatility environment, as depicted by the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands, called the “Band Squeeze” since mid-July 2025. A “Band Squeeze” or a low “Bandwidth” reading is a prelude to a potential expansion in volatility. An increased implied volatility (GVZ) may trigger a significant up move in Gold (XAU/USD) (see Fig. 3).Recent observations between February and March 2025, when a Bollinger “Band Squeeze” in GVZ occurred, preceded a notable rally in Gold (XAU/USD) in April 2025 (see Fig. 3).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the US$3,451 key short-term support on Gold (XAU/USD) negates the bullish tone for another round of minor corrective decline to retest US$3,435/3,432 pull-back support of the former medium-term “Ascending Triangle” range resistance. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Eyes Weekly Close Above $3400/oz on Renewed Haven Demand and DXY WeaknessOil prices have rallied just over 1% to start the week thanks in part to rising geopolitical risks with Russia-Ukraine tensions stoking supply concerns.Russia-Ukraine Developments Ukraine has recently used drones to attack and shut down many of Russia's oil processing plants. These attacks have stopped Russia from processing over a million barrels of oil each day, which is a significant part of their total supply (about 17%).Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said they plan to launch more of these attacks deep inside Russia.This is happening three and a half years into the war. In the last few weeks, both sides have increased their air strikes. While Russia has been attacking Ukraine's power and transport systems, Ukraine is hitting back by targeting Russia's oil industry. These ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure have increased the risk premium and this is likely aiding oil prices at present. A potential peace deal touted by US President Donald Trump appears to be falling apart with European Leaders taking a more combative approach following a historic meeting at the White House in August.Many had expected the meeting to lead to a path for peace, for now though, this seems further away than ever.Chevron Returns to Venezuela The US government, under the Trump administration, has slightly changed its rules for Venezuela's oil industry. It gave the oil company Chevron special permission to increase its work there. This is a careful change, not a wide-open door, but it might allow other foreign oil companies to return to Venezuela in the future.At the same time, the US is using a two-part strategy. While it's allowing more oil to be produced, it is also increasing pressure on Venezuela's President, Nicolás Maduro. As part of this, the US recently sent three navy warships to waters near Venezuela to help fight drug trafficking. The government had also previously charged Maduro with drug-related terrorism and offered a $50 million reward for his arrest.For Chevron, this special permission is a big deal. The company could produce about 250,000 more barrels of oil per day. While that's not enough to change global oil prices, it's a significant boost for Chevron itself, increasing its oil production by more than 10%. Chevron's refineries in the US are now in a great position to process this cheaper Venezuelan oil, which they haven't been able to get for years.The decision may offset some of the fears around Russian Oil supply and could be seen as a move in anticipation of supply constraints if the US follows through on harsher restrictions on Russian Oil purchases.However, this is unlikely to affect demand for Russian Crude. China and India are the biggest buyers of crude oil from Russia. India has already seen additional tariffs imposed as a result of a its Russian Oil purchases but has remained steadfast thus far.This was evident by Narendra Modi attending the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) meeting in Tianjin over the weekend where he was pictured alongside China Leader Xi Jinping and Russian Leader Vladimir Putin.OPEC 8 Meeting Markets will now turn their attention to API and EIA data this week ahead of the much anticipated meeting by the OPEC 8 scheduled for September 7.OPEC meetings this year have been fruitful with significant output increases. The recent meeting on August 3 saw a 547,000 bpd increase for September, fully reversing the group's previous voluntary output cuts.The group does appear to have pivoted its strategy to counter US President Donald Trump's pledge to lower oil prices. They have shifted from price stabilization to market share as Oil prices struggle to break back above the $70/ barrel mark.The lower Oil prices go the more beneficial this may prove to OPEC members as US producers need Oil to average around the $56/barrel mark to remain profitable. Thus the closer we are to that number the less appealing it is for US producers. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - WTI From a technical analysis standpoint, Oil is eyeing a clean break of a long-term descending trendline which could open up the possibility of a significant rally to the upside.The trendline is also a confluence level as it lines up with the 200-day MA resting at the 65.00 handle.A break of this level should in theory lead to a rally toward the 70.00 mark before the next target at 76.00 comes into view.However, there are potential warning signs that need to be considered. Firstly the current price is almost identical to the previous swing high from August 25 which led to a selloff back to the 63.00 mark and thus a rejection here could be seen as a potential double top pattern and lead to an influx of sellers.This make this level a key inflection point for Oil prices in the short-term and potentially the medium-term as well and should be monitored closely.WTI Oil Four-Hour (H4) Chart, September 1, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian dollar is coming off a positive week and has extended its gains on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6556, up 0.27% on the day. Earlier, the Aussie rose as high as 0.6560, its highest level since August 11. With US markets closed for Labor Day, we're unlikely to see stronger movement from AUD/USD during the day.China's weak manufacturing could hurt Australian dollarChina's manufacturing sector continues to contract and that could spell trouble for the Australian economy and the Aussie. China's manufacturing PMI for August inched higher to 49.4 from 49.3 in August. This missed the market forecast of 49.5 and marked the fight straight month of contraction in manufacturing. The manufacturing industry has been dampened by weak global demand and US tariffs on Chinese products. The drop in manufacturing activity means there has been less demand for iron ore from Australia, which is used in the production of steel. This has resulted in a decline in iron ore prices, which has weighed on the Australian dollar and dampened Australia's export-reliant economy.US PCE core inflation rises to 2.9%The US core personal consumption expenditures price index (core PCE), the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, ticked higher to 2.9% in July, up from 2.8% in June. This matched the market estimate and was a five-month high. Monthly, core PCE rose 0.3%, unchanged from June and in line with the market estimate.The slight rise in US core inflation has raised expectations of a rate cut at the Fed's September 17 meeting to 89%, up from 86% just before the core PCE release on Friday.AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing resistance at 06552. Above, there is resistance at 0.6563 and 0.65780.6537 and 0.6526 are providing support AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 1, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Japanese yen is slightly weaker on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.21, up 0.12% on the day. US markets are closed for Labor Day, which means that USD/JPY is unlikely to show stronger movement today.Tokyo Core CPI eases to 2.5% Tokyo Core CPI declined for a third consecutive month in August, with a gain of 2.5%, its lowest level since March. This was down sharply from 2.9% in July and matched the market estimate. Tokyo core CPI, which excludes fresh food, eased lower due to government utility subsidies.The Bank of Japan appears on track to raise interest rates, but isn't providing any hints as to a date. The markets expect the BoJ to hold rates at the September 19 meeting, with a rate hike likely in October or December. The BoJ wants to see stronger wage growth before another hike and Governor Ueda said at the Jackson Hole conference that he expected the tight labor market would put upward pressure on wages. Other data released on Friday pointed to weakness in Japan's economy. Retail sales slipped 1.6% m/m in July, down from a revised 0.9% in June and below the market estimate of -1.0%. Industrial production declined in July by 0.9% y/y, down sharply from a 4.4% gain in June and below the forecast of 2.8%.The US tariffs have taken a bite out of production and exports and the US and Japan have reached a deal which leaves 15% tariffs on many Japanese products.US PCE core inflation rises to 2.9%The US core personal consumption expenditures price index (core PCE), the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, ticked higher to 2.9% in July, up from 2.8% in June. This was matched the market estimate and was a five-month high. Monthly, core PCE rose 0.3%, unchanged from June and in line with the market estimate.The slight acceleration has raised expectations of a rate cut at the Fed's September 17 meeting to 89%, up from 86% just before the core PCE release on Friday.USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY tested resistance at 147.32 earlier. Above ,there is resistance at 147.43147.13 and 147.02 are the next support levels USDJPY 4-Hour Chart, September 1, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.