Crude -4800KPrior was +2480KGasoline +7000KDistillates +1000KExpectations for tomorrow's EIA reportCrude -2310KGasoline +4518KDistillates +1943KWTI is struggling this week and finished lower by 49-cents on Tuesday. The crude number here is nice but that's a fat build in gasoline and comes after a 4.5mb build in last week's EIA data. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Ext migration and visitors +9.4% vs +9.6% priorEstimated migrant arrivals 2400 vs 1800 priorNot exactly blowing the doors off but the population is steadily rising and tourists continue to love New Zealand, aside from the long travel times. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US indices close mixed. Russell 2000 rates to new intraday record levelUS Treasury Secretary Bessent: Highlights Trump's commitment to lasting peace in UkraineCrude oil futures settle at $58.25RBNZ signals updated – driven approach as policy Path remains uncertainU.S. Treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.175%Major European indices close the session with mixed results.Silver trades at all-time highU.S. Economic Data Finally Resumes After Shutdown: Key CPI and Jobs Reports RescheduledSilver technicals: Price moves to a new all-time high. What is the next target?JOLTS October job openings 7.600M vs 7.150M estimateWH Economic Advisor Hassett: There is more room than a 25 basis point cutWeekly ADP 4-week average employment change +4.75K versus -13.5K in last weekly releaseThe USD is little changed. One more day to the Fed rate decisionGold technical analysis video: Bulls are back after the stop hunt below $4200investingLive European FX news wrap: JPY keeps weakening, Trump considering tariff changesThe JOLTS job openings was released for the month of October (so during the shutdown). Job openings rose modestly — the number moved up to 7.67 million, slightly higher than September’s 7.66 million. Hiring activity stagnated — total hires remained around 5.15 million, with a hires rate of about 3.2%. Worker confidence fell — the quits rate dropped to 1.8%, one of the lowest readings in several years. Meanwhile, layoffs rose modestly, indicating heightened risk or caution among employers.The uptick in job openings suggests that demand for labor hasn’t collapsed — there remain companies willing to post positions. At first glance, that’s healthy. But the flat hiring numbers and a steep drop in quits tell a different story: many of those jobs are going unfilled (or being posted but not filled), and workers are less willing to move jobs.In short, this isn’t a booming hiring environment; it’s more of a “no-hire, no-fire” stalemate: employers may be listing jobs, but they’re not aggressively hiring — and workers aren’t jumping to new roles. That signals an increasingly cautious labor market, even if demand remains weakly positive.The monthly jobs report for November will not be released until December 15. The BLS reported that the December report will be released on January 9th which is closer to catching up. Of interest this week in addition to the FOMC rate decision tomorrow is the initial jobs claims data. Recall that was week, the fell below the 200,000 level to the since 2022.Was it the Thanksgiving Day holiday seasons. It could also be the "no fire" side of the equation. The odd's on favorite for Fed Chair, Kevin Hassett spoke today and said:There is “plenty of room” for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further, and he believes cuts could go beyond just a standard 25-basis-point move.He emphasized that any decision should be “data-driven” — that is, based on economic indicators (inflation, growth, employment), not predetermined or politically driven.Asked hypothetically if he would accept pressure from political leaders to cut rates, Hassett insisted he would rely on his own judgment and follow the data, even if that meant disagreeing with such requests, and added that Trump trusts him (TBD on that comment). Silver surged to a new all-time record high today, breaking above the $60 per ounce mark for the first time in history and reaching intraday levels near $60.56. The rally reflects a powerful combination of tightening global supply, surging industrial demand, and rising investor interest. Silver has now more than doubled in value this year, far outpacing gold and marking one of the strongest precious-metal performances in decades. Structural supply shortages—paired with robust consumption from solar, EV, and electronics industries—have added upward pressure. The next key target comes at a Fibonacci extension target (200%) at $63.12. The price today reached $60.80.The price of gold moved up $22.30 or 0.43% to $4212.90. In the US stock market today, the Dow and S&P moved lower, NASDAQ was marginally higher, and Russell 2000 traded to a new record intraday level, but closed below the highest closeDow industrial average is 179.03 points or -0.3% to47560.29.S&P index fell -6 .00 point or -0.09% to 6840.41NASDAQ index rose 30.58 points or 0.13% to 23576.49.Russell 2000 rose by .26 points or 0.21% to 2526.24. The all-time record high close comes in 2531.15The FOMC rate decision will be announced at 2 PM tomorrow with expectations for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%. Also released will be the summary of economic projections which gives the guesstimates from Fed officials for the Fed funds rate at the end of 2026 along with GDP, employment rate, PCE inflation and core PCE inflation. In September: Fed funds rate at the end the of 2026 was estimate that 3.4%GDP was estimated at 1.8%Unemployment rate was estimated at 4.4% PCE was expected 2.6%Core PCE was expected at 2.6%.The Fed Chair will give his summary of the meeting and answer questions during the normal press conference starting at 2:30 PM ET> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

It was a mixed day for the US equities with the Dow and S&P indices moving lower. The NASDAQ in the small-cap Russell 2000 moved marginally higher. For the Russell 2000, it traded intraday at a new record high, but closed about 4 point below its record high close reached last week.A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average is 179.03 points or -0.3% to47560.29.S&P index fell -6 .00 point or -0.09% to 6840.41NASDAQ index rose 30.58 points or 0.13% to 23576.49.Russell 2000 rose by .26 points or 0.21% to 2526.24. The all-time record high close comes in 2531.15 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Appreciated the opportunity to speak this morning with Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia SvyrydenkoDiscussion highlighted Trumps commitment to lasting peace in Ukraine.Discussed treasuries sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft. Earlier today, Zelenskyy spoke and said:Wants to discuss restoration of Ukraine as part of peace plan preparation with US. Is ready to hold elections US and European unity security during the process.If securities is guaranteed, would be held next 60 days and 90 days. Will is parliament to prepare legislative framework to make elections possible during martial lawMeanwhile Pres. Trump said he would give Zelenskyy "days" to respond to peace proposal. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Crude oil settles lower, slipping over 1% as sellers defend key technical resistance. 200-hour moving average caps the rally, reinforcing downside momentum. Swing-area support tested, raising the risk of further declines if broken.Crude oil futures finished the session at $58.25, a decline of $0.63 or -1.07%. The market briefly pushed higher early in the day, reaching a session peak of $59.17, before losing momentum and retreating into negative territory. On the downside, the contract touched an intraday low of $58.12, reflecting a notable shift in sentiment as traders faded the early strength.From a technical standpoint, today’s high stalled precisely at the 200-hour moving average, a level that continues to act as a firm ceiling and keep buyers on the defensive. Once crude failed at that resistance, sellers stepped in and drove the price lower, pushing it beneath the 61.8% retracement of the entire rise from the October 20 low at $50.49.The decline ultimately brought crude into a key swing-area support zone between $58.13 and $58.49, an area highlighted as pivotal in recent sessions. Price tested the lower boundary of this zone, and while buyers held the initial line, the structure remains fragile. A decisive move below this region would likely spark additional downside momentum and reinforce the broader bearish bias.The are now back at This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Fresh remarks from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Breman highlight a continued emphasis on data dependency and policy flexibility as the economy evolves.• Important to look at all incoming data ahead of the next monetary policy meeting. • Will maintain a laser focus on the core mandate. • There is no preset course for monetary policy. • Keeping a close watch on key indicators, including inflation and GDP. • The RBNZ has achieved substantial progress toward delivering its mandated functions.Summary Interpretation:The comments reinforce a clear message: the RBNZ is committed to a fully data-dependent, flexible policy stance. With no predetermined path for interest rates, policymakers remain focused on monitoring inflation, GDP trends, and other economic signals before making further decisions. The emphasis on maintaining its core mandate, while acknowledging progress already achieved, suggests a balanced tone—neither hawkish nor dovish—but grounded in caution and responsiveness to evolving conditions.The NZDUSD is coming off its highs which took the price back above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July 1 high at 0.57835. Yesterday and today, the price moved above that target, but fell short of other target levels including the natural resistance and swing level at 0.5800, and the falling 100 day moving average at 0.58091. The high price today reached 0.5794, before rotating back to the downside. See earlier post here outlining the technical levels for the NZDUSD This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

USDINR slips below the 100-hour moving average, signaling early signs of weakening bullish momentum.Key support sits at the 89.7900 swing area, with sellers needing a break below to extend downside pressure.A move under the 200-hour moving average (89.7560) would mark a major shift, giving sellers clearer control for the first time since November 19.USDINR Slips as Momentum FadesThe USDINR is coming off the boil, slipping back below both the rising 100-hour moving average and a nearby trend line near the 90.00 level. The 100-hour MA itself has begun to tilt lower, now sitting near 89.9897, signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum. Breaking back beneath this moving average is an important first step in turning the bias more bearish—but sellers still have additional hurdles to clear.Key Support Zone Approaches: The 89.79 Swing AreaLooking at the hourly chart, the next critical level sits at the 89.7900 swing area, a zone highlighted in prior technical discussions. Today’s lows have stalled just ahead of that support, suggesting buyers are still willing to defend the area on initial tests.If sellers can push the price below 89.79, downside momentum would likely accelerate, flipping the market sentiment further toward bearish control.The 200-Hour Moving Average: A Major Decision PointThe next major target sits at the rising 200-hour moving average, currently near 89.7560 and inching closer to the swing-area support. The convergence of these two levels over the next 24 hours will create a technical inflection zone.A break below both the 89.79 swing area and the 200-hour MA would give sellers the clear go-ahead to extend the move lower. It would also mark a meaningful shift: the last time USDINR traded materially below its 200-hour MA was back on November 19. A move under this longer-term measure would be a strong signal that sellers have regained broader control.Bottom Line: Sellers Have an Opening—Now They Must Follow ThroughThe break back below the 100-hour MA is a step in the right direction for sellers, but the real test lies ahead.Below 89.79 = downside opens.Below the 200-hour MA = sellers take firmer control.Until price takes out these deeper levels, buyers still have room to hold the line. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury sold $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.175% WI level at the time of the auction 4.175%Tail 0.0 basis points versus 6 month average of 0.0 basis pointsBid to cover 2.55X vs 6 month average of2.51XDIrects 20.96% vs 6 month average of 20.5%Indirects 70.24% vs 6 month average of 69.5%Dealers 8.81% versus 6 month average of 10.0%AUCTION GRADE: C+/B-The 10 year note auction came in with a 0.0 basis point tail which is precisely the six-month average. The bid to cover was just marginally higher than the six-month average. The domestic the bidders were just above the six-month average while the in directs were also just above the six-month average. As a result the dealers were saddled with about 1.2% less than the norm.That was good enough for a C+/B- grade in my view.There is little reaction. However, in general, the 10 year yield is comfortably above the 4.0% level at 4.17%. Recall that toward the end of November, the yield reached a low of 3.962%. The current level is near the high levels going back to September 26 and is also near a swing area between 4.17% and 4.199%. Move above that area and we could see a further pop in yields. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

European Indices End Mixed as Trading Winds DownThe major European stock indices closed the session mixed, with performance varying across the region. Germany’s DEU40 led to the upside, gaining 0.49% at 24,162.66, while France’s CAC40 lagged, falling 0.69% to 8,052.52. The UK’s FTSE 100 (UKX) hovered near unchanged levels, slipping just 0.03% to 9,642.00.Spain’s market data included duplicate readings for the IBEX 35, both showing the index up 0.13% at 16,734.49, confirming a modest gain on the day. Italy’s FTMIB also posted a respectable rise of 0.33%, closing at 43,574.51.U.S. stock indices are mixed as London and European traders call it a dayAs European traders head for the exits, U.S. equities are mixed in early trading.Dow Jones (DJI): 47,724.12, down 0.03%S&P 500 (SPX): 6,854.43, up 0.12%Nasdaq (IXIC): 23,588.28, up 0.18%The modest moves reflect a cautious tone ahead of today’s Treasury auction and lingering macro uncertainty.U.S. Treasury Yields head higher ahead of 10 year auctionThe U.S. Treasury market is showing small upward moves in yields across much of the curve:2-year: 3.6043% (+0.021 basis points)5-year: 3.7691% (+0.017 basis points)10-year: 4.1741% (unchanged)30 year 4.800%, (-1.5 basis points)Further out the curve, long-end yields dipped slightly, with the 20-year and 30-year down by 0.012 and 0.014 respectively.A key focal point today will be the U.S. Treasury’s auction of $39 billion in 10-year notes at 1:00 PM ET, which could influence yield direction and risk sentiment into the afternoon session.Commodities & Crypto: Silver Breaks Above $60 for the First Time EverThe commodities complex is uneven, with crude oil under pressure while precious metals surge.US Oil: $58.22, down 1.05%Gold: $4,206.095, up 0.37%Silver: $60.115 — up 3.40%, trading above $60 for the first time everBitcoin: $93,727, up 3.40%Silver’s breakout above the $60 mark marks a historic milestone, underscoring strong investment flows into precious metals as inflation hedges and volatility dampeners. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

NZDUSD Rides Risk Momentum After Hawkish RBA DecisionThe NZDUSD is trading higher today, supported in part by strength in its sister currency, AUDUSD, which surged after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a more hawkish-leaning decision. While the overall tone is bullish, the upside move has not been a straight line. Early in the U.S. session, the pair dipped lower, but that pullback found strong support at the rising 100-hour moving average, currently near 0.57744.Holding above that moving average keeps the short-term bias tilted in favor of buyers, reinforcing the notion that the recent correction was a pause rather than a reversal.Key Fibonacci Level in Play: 38.2% Retracement as a BattlegroundAlso important today is the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the July high to the November low, which sits at 0.57835. The price has been oscillating around this level, signaling that the market is testing buyer conviction.For buyers to remain firmly in control, the ideal scenario is to stay above both the 100-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement. Holding that dual support zone would keep bullish momentum intact and build the foundation for the next leg higher.Upside Roadmap: 0.5800 and the 100-Day Moving AverageIf NZDUSD remains supported above these key intraday levels, the next upside target lies at the 0.5800 handle—a swing high from October and a key pivot point extending back to August. A break above that level exposes the falling 100-day moving average at 0.5809.Notably, NZDUSD has not traded above its 100-day MA since mid-September. Reclaiming that longer-term moving average would mark a meaningful shift in trend and could unlock additional upside potential.Beyond that, traders will look toward the 50% midpoint of the broader July–November decline at 0.58476, a level that would serve as a natural technical magnet if bullish momentum accelerates.Bottom Line: Buyers Are Making a Move—Now They Must Defend ItBuyers have stepped in and are trying to carve out a more constructive bullish structure.Staying above the 100-hour moving average is the first requirement.Breaking and holding above the 100-day moving average strengthens the bullish bias significantly.If these conditions hold, the NZDUSD has room to extend higher into deeper retracement levels and reestablish a broader upward trajectory. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Government data releases are catching up following the 46-day shutdown.November CPI arrives December 18, while December CPI and real earnings will be released on January 13.January jobs report shifts to January 9, restoring a near-normal schedule for labor-market data.As the government works its way out of the 46-day shutdown, the economic data calendar is finally beginning to realign. The BLS will release the delayed November CPI report on December 18, and has now scheduled the December CPI for January 13. On that same day, the agency will publish real earnings for December, helping fill in the inflation-adjusted income picture.The U.S. Employment Situation report—normally released on the first Friday of each month—will instead arrive on Friday, January 9, roughly one week later than usual. That timing marks a return to a more typical rhythm for labor-market reporting, suggesting that at least the jobs calendar will be back on track as the backlog clears. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

RBA holds rates but signals a hawkish shift, boosting expectations for a potential February rate hike if inflation stays elevated.AUDUSD breaks to multi-month highs, clearing key resistance at 0.6648 as bullish momentum accelerates after Governor Bullock’s comments.Next major upside targets sit at 0.66817–0.6706, with hourly support at the 100-hour moving average guiding short-term trend control.RBA Holds Rates but Signals a Hawkish TiltThe Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged, as expected, but Governor Bullock’s comments leaned noticeably toward the possibility of a future rate hike. With the next meeting not until February—after the RBA’s summer break—markets are increasingly pricing in the risk of tightening if inflation fails to cool.AUDUSD Breaks Higher as Buyers Take ControlThat shift in tone helped propel AUDUSD to fresh highs, breaking above the cluster of swing highs from Friday, Monday, and earlier today at 0.6648. The clean break above that ceiling opens the door for additional upside momentum as buyers gain confidence.Key Technical Targets AheadOn the daily chart above, the next target zone sits between 0.66817 and 0.6706, an area defined by multiple swing highs stretching back to October 2024. The top of that zone—0.6706—also marks the 2024 yearly high posted in September. A move toward that region would confirm strengthening bullish control and keep the broader topside narrative intact.Technical Roadmap on the Hourly ChartDrilling down to the hourly chart below, the key ceiling comes in at 0.66488. That ceiling was defined by swing highs from Friday, Monday, and earlier today A break back below this level with momentum would shift the focus toward the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.66235 (blue line on the chart below). Earlier today, the price briefly dipped under that moving average as markets digested the RBA decision, creating a short-lived liquidity air pocket. But once the more hawkish tone from Governor Bullock became clear, buyers quickly stepped back in and pushed the pair higher.For sellers to gain any meaningful control, they must drive the price back below the 100-hour moving average and hold it there. Without that break, the downside remains limited, and the sellers are simply not winning the battle. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Silver is on the run again with a gain of $1.50 or 2.57% and $59.64. The high price reached $59.74 so far.Price is testing a key topside trendline, connecting the October 5 high to this month’s highs.Next upside target: the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $59.95.Break above $59.95 shifts focus to the 200% extension, with resistance up at $63.37.What are the technicals telling traders? A look at the daily chart.From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows the price pressing up against a key topside trendline drawn from the October 5 swing high through the highs reached earlier this month (see daily chart below). This trendline has acted as an important barrier, and today’s test will help determine whether buyers have the momentum to shift the broader structure toward a more aggressive upside breakout.Just above that trendline sits the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the most recent corrective pullback from October, a level that comes in near $59.95. This zone represents the next meaningful hurdle for buyers and a classic area where traders often reassess risk and momentum. Should the market break through and hold above this extension, it opens the door to the next technical target: the 200% Fibonacci extension, which comes in significantly higher at $63.37.In short, the market is now testing a major resistance confluence—a trendline plus a key Fibonacci extension. A sustained push above this zone would signal that buyers are not just in control but accelerating, setting the stage for a move toward the higher $63s. Until then, the topside remains a battleground where momentum will either stall or ignite the next leg higher.Hourly Chart Analysis: Defining the RisksLooking at the hourly chart, the price action over the past week has repeatedly moved above and below the rising 100-hour moving average (the blue line). That pattern shows a market that has been consolidating but still respecting the broader upward bias. What stands out, however, is the behavior relative to the 200-hour moving average. Despite several dips, the price has not approached or tested that longer-term support level at all. When sellers can’t even push the market down to a key trend-defining moving average, it tells you something: buyers remain in control. Conversely, it would take a move back below those moving averages to give the sellers more control.The inability of sellers to generate deeper retracements keeps the 200-hour MA comfortably below the market and reinforces the idea that the downside has been limited. As a result, buyers have been able to maintain pressure and build toward a renewed push higher. Their willingness to hold the line above deeper support, combined with the rising slope of both moving averages, suggests momentum is shifting more firmly in their favor. With the broader trend structure intact, buyers are now making another run to the upside, and until the 200-hour MA is challenged, they retain a clear tactical advantage.UPDATE: SIlver reaches to $59.998 as the $60 barrier is tested and the 161.80% fib extension is tested /broken at $59.95. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month 7.227MJOLTs job openings 7.670M vs 7.150M estimateOctober hires were little changed, holding at 5.1 million.The hire rate remained steady at 3.2%.No significant hiring shifts occurred across any major industriesIn October, total separations were little changed at 5.1 million and a 3.2% rate.Total separations fell in health care & social assistance (-111,000) and the federal government (-34,000).Quits in October were little changed at 2.9 million with a 1.8% rate.Quits were down 276,000 over the year.Quits decreased in:Accommodation & food services (-136,000)Health care & social assistance (-114,000)Federal government (-25,000)Federal government quits hit a series high of 46,000 in September.Quits increased in:Arts, entertainment & recreation (+38,000)Information (+21,000)Job openings moving higher is generally a positive sign for the labor market, suggesting that employers still want to hire. However, the quits rate falling to its lowest level since 2020 tells a different story. Quits typically rise when workers feel confident they can easily find another job; their decline signals anxiety and caution beneath the surface. This contrast highlights a job market that looks healthy on the demand side but shows waning worker confidence.The jobs picture to me is muddy. Initial jobless claims dropped below 200K last week, a level usually associated with strong labor conditions, though the Thanksgiving holiday makes the seasonal adjustment less reliable. Today’s ADP report also moved back into positive territory, reversing recent weakness from a negative monthly reading. Together, the data point to an uptick in employment. What will the Fed say tomorrow? The data point to hawkish cut. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Energy sector surges while tech hits resistance: A look into today's market dynamicsThe stock market presented a mixed yet intriguing picture today, with notable variation across sectors. While the energy sector soared based on robust performances, the technology sector confronted some challenges, reflecting diverse investor sentiments and wider economic influences.? Sector Overview:Energy: The energy sector has emerged as the standout performer, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) climbing an impressive +1.46% and Chevron (CVX) holding steady at +0.23%. A consistent rise in oil prices and demand has bolstered these giants, encouraging investor confidence.Technology: Despite being a historically strong sector, technology remains under pressure. Microsoft (MSFT) experienced a -0.20% decrease, and semiconductor leader Nvidia (NVDA) saw a decline of -0.67%. The prevailing mood suggests a cautious approach as investors digest recent tech earnings and anticipate potential interest rate changes.Healthcare: Fresh injections of optimism are lifting healthcare stocks. Lilly (LLY) posted a gain of +0.62% amid renewed faith in sector fundamentals.➖ Market Mood and Trends:Today's market environment reveals a cautious optimism among investors, spurred by energy strength and healthcare stability. However, the tech sector's struggles underscore persistent uncertainty related to economic policies and inflation. This dual sentiment may shape upcoming market movements and investor strategies.? Strategic Recommendations:Given current sector performances, investors should consider maintaining a diversified portfolio to hedge against volatility. Energy and healthcare sectors present promising opportunities, thanks to strong fundamentals and favorable market conditions. Conversely, while underperforming today, technology remains a key area to watch for long-term growth.For more insights and updates, visit InvestingLive.com and stay ahead of market trends.? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The White House economic advisor Hassett is speaking and says:Plenty of room for the Fed to cut ratesSays that there is a play room to cut more than 25 basis points.Pres. Trump will make a choice but could change his mindSays that it's important for the Fed chair to look at data.Says that Treasury Secretary Bessette is at the top was for running the Fed, but he does not want the job.If Fed chair, would make decisions based on his judgment. Says Trump trusts that.Labor growth is a little slower than it has beenWhat’s particularly interesting right now is the intense focus on economic data. Critics such as Miran and Bessent argue that the current Federal Reserve is not forward-looking enough, saying policymakers should be anticipating economic shifts rather than reacting to them. In contrast, Kevin Hassett’s is now aligning more closely with the Fed’s existing framework—including the oft criticized Chair Jerome Powell, who repeatedly emphasizes that the Fed remains data-dependent in setting policy.Betting markets still support Hassett. On Polymarket, traders currently assign Hassett a 76% probability of becoming the next Fed leader—down from about 88% yesterday, but still firmly in the lead. Kevin Warsh, by comparison, sits at roughly 12%, suggesting market confidence remains strongly tilted toward Hassett despite recent volatility. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD rebounds after sharp fall from the stronger jobs report last week.The USDCAD saw an aggressive move lower last Friday after Canada delivered a second straight month of stronger-than-expected employment gains. That upside surprise for the Canadian economy produced a decisive shift in sentiment and triggered a sharp downside push in the pair. In the process, the price broke below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages at 1.3907 and 1.3886, marking a meaningful technical deterioration. Once below those key longer-term trend indicators, the selling accelerated, driving the pair through the 50% retracement of the entire May–June rally at 1.3839. Momentum ultimately carried the decline toward the 1.3800 psychological area, where the market printed a low at 1.37986 during yesterday’s North American session.REBOUND, but the bounce is limited. After that extended fall, the pair finally found some footing as the broader U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday, allowing USDCAD to rebound back above the 50% midpoint at 1.3839. However, the recovery showed clear signs of stalling. The rebound topped out near 1.3856 yesterday, and today’s high again struggled around that same zone—well ahead of the 38.2% retracement of last Thursday’s decline, which sits at 1.38657. That inability to even test, let alone break, the first major Fibonacci resistance level tells an important story: buyers lack conviction, and the upside simply does not have the momentum needed to challenge the dominant bearish shift.What next for traders?If the price can break and hold below 1.38657, the sellers retain the firm technical advantage. They forced the breakdown through key moving averages, they defended the first pullback, and they continue to dictate the terms of the battle. The buyers, by contrast, are not doing enough—failing to reclaim lost ground or generate any sustained push through resistance. For now, the burden remains squarely on the buyers to prove they can turn the tide. Until that happens, the risk and bias continue to tilt toward the downside. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Monthly ADP -32kLast weekly report -13.5K.The weekly 4-week average is 4.75KFrom ADP:For the four weeks ending November 22, 2025, U.S. private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week, according to the NER Pulse, a weekly update of the monthly ADP National Employment Report (NER). Three times a month, ADP Research publishes preliminary estimates of the week-over-week change in U.S. employment based on a four-week moving average. These estimates are based on ADP's finely tuned, high-frequency data. Data is seasonally adjusted and made available with a two-week lag.The report is a positive tilt for jobs after weakness seen recently including the monthly number released last week. The USD has moved higher after the report. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USD is mostly little changed to start the North American session. Looking at the changes vs the USD, the.EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF are all within a pip or so of unchanged on the day. The USDJPY is higher by 0.22% as the market continues its move to the upside after rebounding on Friday and Monday. That corrective move is continuing. The AUDUSD is higher (lower USD) by 0.22% after the RBA rate decision. In the video above, I kickstart the North American session with the technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What levels are in play and why for risk, targets. What are the main bias's going into the day?The AUDUSD is higher after the RBA kept rates unchanged with the RBA Governor Michele Bullock commenting that the Board did not explicitly consider a rate hike at the latest meeting but actively discussed scenarios in which tightening might be required, particularly if inflation proves persistent. She stressed caution with monthly CPI data and said upcoming inflation and labor-market releases—especially the quarterly inflation report—will be critical for the February meeting, the next opportunity after the RBA’s summer break. While she would not put a timeline or probability on future moves, Bullock emphasized that rate cuts are not on the horizon, downside risks have not abated, and upside inflation risks are now greater. The Board remains uncomfortable with current inflation levels and will react only to sustained data trends, not one-off numbers. Her comments put February “in play,” with markets viewing it as a potential staging point for signaling a possible March rate hike, now priced with roughly 45% probability. AUDUSD jumped on the remarks.Overnight, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the Bank is watching market movements closely, particularly the rapid rise in long-term interest rates, and signaled that it stands ready to increase JGB purchases if yields move abruptly. He emphasized that real interest rates remain very low and reiterated that any adjustment to monetary easing will depend on economic and price trends aligning with the BoJ’s forecasts. Ueda noted growing confidence in the BoJ’s policy outlook, while continuing to gather information on companies’ wage intentions for next year. He added that Japan’s tightening labor market is putting upward pressure on wages and prices, and stressed that calibrating the degree of monetary policy is essential for maintaining financial-market stability and achieving price stability.He then added that he expects Japan’s economy to return to positive growth in Q4 and continue strengthening, supported by steady wage and price momentum and the stabilizing effects of automakers keeping export prices lower. He noted that real interest rates remain very low and stressed that the Bank will adjust the degree of monetary easing only if economic and price trends move in line with forecasts. Ueda highlighted that the outlook is gradually becoming more certain, but the BoJ is closely watching food inflation and yen weakness in case they alter inflation expectations. He also emphasized the need to monitor companies’ wage plans for next year and acknowledged that a tightening labor market is adding upward pressure on wages and prices. While he avoided commenting on specific rate moves, he said the Bank is paying close attention to the recent rapid rise in long-term yields and stands ready to increase JGB purchases if needed to counter abrupt moves. Ueda reiterated that exchange rates should follow fundamentals, and understanding how FX impacts the inflation outlook remains a “very important question” for policy.Ueda’s comments lean moderately hawkish, though not aggressively ahead of the December 19 rate decision. The US debt market is mixed to start the US session:2-year yield 3.583%, unchanged5 year yield 3.749%, -0.2 basis points10 year yield 4.164%, -0.8 basis points30 year yield 4.799%, -1.6 basis pointsThe snapshot of the US stock market shows little change Dow industrial average up 12.68 pointsS&P index up 4.49 pointsNASDAQ index down -2.2 pointsPres. Trump let XI know that Nvidia H200 chips would be available to China, but China may still limit the demand. Nvidia's Huang warned that if you limit the supply, they will move away from the use. That is what may be happening. In other markets:Crude oil is up $0.11 said $58.99Gold is up $16.97 or 0.41% at $4207.61Silver is up $0.70 or 1.21% and $58.85Bitcoin is little changed and $90,512The weekly ADP metrics will be released at 8:15 AM ET. The last weekly release showed a shedding of -13.5K. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.