Freddie Mac is reporting that the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage average rate rose to 6.22% from 6.19% in the prior week. The recent cycle lows going back to October 2022 is at 6.09%.Current Market SnapshotThe housing market continues to navigate a complex environment of fluctuating rates and sticky prices. While the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday, mortgage rates have moved in the opposite direction this week, highlighting the disconnect that often exists between Fed policy and long-term bond yields.Mortgage Rates: According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.22% this week, up from 6.19% the previous week.Inventory Levels: Housing supply is slowly recovering but remains approximately 13% below pre-pandemic levels. We are seeing regional disparities, with inventory surging in the South and West (rising above pre-pandemic norms in cities like Denver and Austin) while remaining tight in the Northeast.Price Trends: National median list prices are largely flat year-over-year at approximately $424,000. However, about 20% of listings are seeing price cuts, suggesting sellers are having to adjust expectations to meet stretched buyers.The Affordability CrunchAffordability remains the primary headwind for prospective buyers. Despite the Fed's easing cycle, the combination of home prices near record highs and mortgage rates above 6% keeps monthly payments elevated.Delinquencies Outlook: Recent credit reports suggest a modest rise in mortgage delinquencies heading into 2026 as the "affordability squeeze" tests borrower resilience.Buyer Behavior: A new report from Zillow indicates that many buyers are skipping the "rate shopping" phase in a rush to secure homes, potentially costing them significant savings in a volatile rate environment.Chair Powell on Housing: The "Lock-In" Effect and SupplyDuring yesterday’s post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed the housing market directly, offering a sobering view on why lower Fed rates haven't immediately fixed the sector's issues.1. The "Lock-In" Effect is Stifling Supply Powell emphasized that the housing market is effectively "frozen" because millions of Americans are holding onto mortgages with rates between 2% and 3%. Even as the Fed cuts rates, current market rates (near 6%) are too high to entice these owners to sell and move, keeping resale inventory artificially low.2. Inflation & Housing Services Powell noted that while the Fed has made progress on inflation, housing services inflation remains sticky. He described the current policy stance as "modestly restrictive," which is helping to cool the economy, but he acknowledged that monetary policy alone cannot fix structural housing supply deficits.3. The Tariff Impact When addressing recent inflation data, Powell attributed much of the current "heat" to tariffs, describing them as a "one-time price increase." However, he warned that if these policy shifts lead to higher costs for construction materials or labor shortages (via immigration changes), it could exacerbate the housing supply shortage further.Realtor.com 2026 Forecast: A Steady Shift Toward BalanceOverview: "Low Gear" RecoveryRealtor.com recently outlined their projections for US housing in 2026. They forecast that the US housing market is expected to shift into a steadier, more balanced state in 2026. While not a boom year, conditions will improve modestly for buyers as affordability pressures ease slightly. The market will remain in "low gear," with sales rising slowly from historical lows but still constrained by high prices and rates.Key Data Projections (2026 vs. 2025)Mortgage Rates: Expected to average 6.3% for the year (down from an average of 6.6% in 2025). This stability helps buyers budget but keeps the "lock-in" effect in play for existing owners.Home Prices: Forecast to rise by a modest 2.2% year-over-year. Crucially, inflation is expected to outpace this growth (~3%), meaning real home prices (inflation-adjusted) will actually decline slightly, slowly improving affordability.Existing-Home Sales: Projected to rise 1.7% to 4.13 million units. This is a small rebound from the 29-year lows seen in 2024-2025.Inventory: For-sale inventory will grow by 8.9%, marking the third straight year of gains, though levels will still remain ~12% below pre-pandemic norms.Rents: Rents are forecast to decline by 1.0% nationally as a robust supply of new multi-family units hits the market.Market Dynamics by GroupFor Buyers: "Negotiating power tilts subtly toward buyers." Affordability will improve as incomes grow faster than home prices, pushing the typical mortgage payment share of income below 30% for the first time since 2022.For Sellers: The market is moving further into "balanced territory." Sellers will face more competition and may need to be flexible on price. Delistings (sellers walking away rather than cutting prices) may continue.For Renters: A "renter's market" is emerging, particularly in the South and West (e.g., Austin, Las Vegas, Atlanta) where supply is surging.Economic BackdropInflation & Wages: Inflation is expected to hover around 3%, but wage growth (3.6%) will outpace it, restoring some consumer purchasing power.Risks: The forecast highlights significant risks, including trade policy/tariffs impacting construction costs and the uncertainty of a Federal Reserve leadership transition when Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026.Conclusion2026 is framed as a year of "slow normalization." It won't be a dramatic return to the frenzied activity of 2020-2021, nor a crash. Instead, it offers a window of stability where inventory creeps up, rates flatten out, and buyers gradually regain some leverage. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Key Takeaways:GDPNow Upgrade: The Atlanta Fed raised its Q3 2025 GDP estimate to 3.6% (up from 3.5%).Trade to the Rescue: A surge in net exports offset weaker government spending and private investment numbers.Fed Optimism: Federal Reserve officials revised their 2026 GDP growth projections sharply higher to 2.3%.Productivity Boom: Chair Powell points to increased productivity as a key tailwind supporting this higher growth trajectory.Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Economy Accelerates to 3.6%The U.S. economy continues to defy slowdown expectations. On December 11, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model ticked its estimate for Q3 2025 real GDP growth up to 3.6%, a modest but meaningful increase from the previous 3.5% reading on December 5.While headline growth is robust, the internal drivers have shifted. According to the latest data from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, domestic demand has softened slightly, but this was more than compensated for by a booming trade balance.The Data Breakdown:Net Exports (The Bullish Driver): The contribution of net exports to GDP was revised upward significantly, jumping from 0.86 percentage points to 1.01 percentage points. This implies that the U.S. is exporting more (or importing less) than previously modeled, acting as a major buffer for the economy.Domestic Investment (The Drag): Real gross private domestic investment growth was revised down to 2.3% (from 3.0%).Government Spending: Real government expenditures growth also saw a downward revision to 1.6% (from 1.7%).Essentially, while businesses and the government pulled back slightly on spending, the external trade sector stepped in to push overall growth higher.Federal Reserve Signals "Stronger for Longer" in 2026The resilience seen in the GDPNow data aligns with the Federal Reserve's updated economic projections released yesterday. In a move that surprised some analysts, Fed members significantly upgraded their outlook for the U.S. economy heading into 2026.The median projection for 2026 GDP growth rose to 2.3%, a sharp upward revision from the 1.8% projected just three months ago in September.Why This Matters: A revision of this magnitude (0.5%) suggests that the Fed no longer sees the current growth spurt as a temporary "sugar high" but rather as a durable trend. It signals that policymakers believe the economy can sustain higher growth rates without necessarily reigniting inflation—a "Goldilocks" scenario for risk assets.Powell’s "Productivity" TailwindDuring yesterday’s press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell provided the narrative backbone for these higher numbers. He explicitly cited increases in productivity as a potential tailwind for growth.When productivity rises—meaning workers produce more output per hour—the economy can grow faster without overheating or driving up wages to inflationary levels. This supports the "soft landing" (or even "no landing") thesis, where the U.S. avoids recession entirely while maintaining robust expansion.Upcoming Key DatesTraders should mark their calendars for the final data releases of the year, which will confirm if this momentum can carry into 2026:Next GDPNow Update: Thursday, December 16.First Q4 2025 Nowcast: Tuesday, December 23. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Key TakeawaysU.S. yields continue to fall after the Fed’s rate cut, reinforcing a dovish market tone and weighing heavily on the USD.EURUSD extends higher, breaking multiple technical resistance levels, including the Oct. 17 swing high and the 61.8% retracement.USD broadly weaker, down against every major currency except AUD; EUR is one of the strongest movers at +0.52% vs USD.Upside targets emerge at the 1.1779–1.1788 swing zone, with risk defined by the 1.17274 breakout level and rising short-term MAs.5-minute trend structure remains bullish, with buyers defending the rising 100- and 200-bar MAs.Fed Cut Sparks Renewed USD Selling as Yields SlideThe Federal Reserve’s 25-bp cut and the market’s dovish interpretation continue to ripple through U.S. fixed-income markets today. Yields across the Treasury curve are extending lower, adding pressure to the USD:2-year: 3.515% (–4.9 bps)5-year: 3.697% (–5.7 bps)10-year: 4.119% (–4.4 bps)30-year: 4.769% (–2.6 bps)With yields falling in unison, the USD is weakening sharply, trading lower against nearly all major currencies. The dollar is higher only against the AUD (+0.10%), while its 0.52% decline vs the EUR makes EURUSD one of the strongest movers of the day.EURUSD Breakout: Technical Structure Turns Decisively BullishToday’s EURUSD price action began with a pullback following yesterday’s sharp Fed-driven breakout. The decline tested last week’s high near 1.1681, where buyers re-entered. That rebound propelled the pair above the 50% midpoint of the September–October range at 1.16929, opening the door for a continuation move.Momentum extended further as EURUSD:Broke the Oct. 17 swing high at 1.17274Cleared the 61.8% retracement at 1.17461Printed a session high at 1.1759, before rotating slightly to 1.1753These breaks confirm strengthening bullish control and shift the focus toward the next major resistance band.Upside Targets and Key Resistance ZonesWith bullish momentum firm, the next topside levels for traders to watch include:1.1779–1.1788: A key multi-touch swing areaAbove 1.1788: Opens the door to a more accelerated upside extensionAs long as the pair holds above the 61.8% level (1.17461) and, more importantly, above the Oct. 17 swing high at 1.17274, buyers remain firmly in control.Short-Term Trend Support: 5-Minute Chart Levels to WatchThe short-term trend remains bullish, supported by rising moving averages:100-bar MA: 1.1719 (approaching the 1.17274 breakout level)200-bar MA: 1.17065During the Asian-Pacific session, EURUSD dipped toward the rising 200-bar MA, where buyers defended support, launching the next leg higher into the European and North American sessions.For sellers to gain meaningful traction, price would need to:Break below the 100-bar MA (blue line on the chart above)Break below the 200-bar MA (green line on the chart above)Stay below both to shift intraday momentum as sellers can declare a victory.A move under those moving averages would be the first sign that buyers are losing short-term control.Conclusion and Video CommentaryIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author ofAttacking Currency Trends) walk through the EURUSD technical landscape, identify the precise risk parameters traders should monitor, and outline the next upside and downside targets that matter most.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

SNB Holds Rates at 0.00% as Inflation Forecasts Edge LowerKey Takeaways (Neutral to Dovish Tilt):Policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, with the SNB reiterating readiness to intervene in FX markets when necessary.Inflation forecasts trimmed across 2026–2027, reinforcing subdued price pressures and a low-inflation environment.Economic outlook improves slightly, supported by lower U.S. tariffs and resilient global conditions, but risks from global trade policy remain significant.Summary of the statement from the SNB rate decision.Earlier today, the Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, matching expectations in its final decision of 2025. The SNB noted that inflation pressures remain virtually unchanged, but its updated forecasts show slightly lower inflation over the next several years—0.2% in 2025, 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027—highlighting a persistently subdued price environment. Growth projections were modestly upgraded, with 2025 GDP now seen at 1.5% and 2026 GDP around 1.0%, reflecting the positive economic impact of lower U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods and somewhat stronger global activity.Even with these improvements, the SNB emphasized that the main risk to Switzerland’s outlook remains the global economy, particularly uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policy. The Bank observed that global growth has been more resilient than previously assumed but warned that tariffs could still weigh more heavily on momentum ahead. The SNB reiterated its willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if needed to maintain appropriate monetary conditions. Overall, the tone of the statement is neutral with a dovish lean, reaffirming stable policy while acknowledging persistently low inflation and lingering global risks.Comments from SNB SchlegelKey Takeaways (Dovish Tilt):Policy remains expansive, with the SNB signaling inflation will rise gradually in coming quarters due to supportive monetary conditions and improving growth.Inflation outlook is “practically unchanged,” and the SNB remains ready to intervene in FX markets, keeping a bias toward maintaining easy policy rather than tightening.Return to negative rates unlikely, but Schlegel emphasized they remain available if deflation or major global shocks re-emerge.Summary and Analysis of comments from SNB Schlegel Chairman Martin Schlegel said the SNB expects inflation to rise slowly in the coming quarters but stressed that medium-term inflation pressure is essentially unchanged from the previous assessment. He reiterated that the current stance is appropriate and continues to support both price stability and economic growth.Schlegel noted that low interest rates remain effective largely through the exchange rate channel, and the Bank stands ready to intervene in FX markets if needed. Although the SNB downplayed recent softer inflation readings, it emphasized that risks remain elevated, including U.S. tariff policy. At the same time, uncertainty has “slightly declined,” and the global economy is expected to grow moderately.Importantly, the SNB repeated that while the threshold for returning to negative interest rates is much higher than in the past, the tool remains available should deflationary forces return. The recent U.S. reduction in tariffs on Swiss goods was acknowledged as supportive, but not policy-changing.Overall, the message reinforces that the SNB is comfortable staying on the dovish side of neutral, preferring to maintain accommodative conditions and relying on FX management rather than rate hikes to guide inflation back through its target zone.USDCHF Technical Analysis: SNB’s Dovish Tone and FX Intervention Warning Fuel Sharp CHF StrengthAlthough the SNB’s policy statement leaned neutral to dovish, with inflation forecasts trimmed for 2026 and 2027, Chairman Schlegel’s reluctance to even discuss a return to negative interest rates gave the Swiss franc a subtle tailwind. More importantly, the SNB repeated its willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market when necessary — a reminder that tends to spook USDCHF buyers and discourage aggressive CHF selling.The reaction in USDCHF was immediate and decisive. The pair has dropped –0.65%, making it the biggest USD mover of the session. The decline accelerated after price action failed on a move higher and against the 50% retracement of the entire trading range since the November high at 0.8000, with the session peak stalling at 0.8001 before sellers seized control. The slide then cut cleanly through the broken 38.2% retracement of the same move at 0.7971, and now opens the door toward a key swing-area support zone between 0.7923 and 0.79283 — the next major decision point for traders.In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving the move, outline where the risk is, and map out the next targets that matter most for USDCHF traders.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged at 2.25%.Key points from the Bank of Canada statement:BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, maintaining a steady stance as inflation remains near target and the economy continues to adjust to global trade disruptions.Global conditions remain mixed: major economies are resilient despite US trade protectionism, with strong US consumption and AI investment, firmer-than-expected euro-area growth, and continued weakness in China’s domestic demand.Canada’s Q3 GDP surprised to the upside at 2.6%, but this strength was driven by volatile trade flows; underlying domestic demand was flat, and overall GDP is expected to weaken in Q4.Labour market shows tentative improvement, with employment gains over three months and unemployment falling to 6.5%, though trade-sensitive sectors remain soft and hiring intentions subdued.Inflation remains near target, with CPI at 2.2% and core measures between 2½% and 3%; underlying inflation is assessed around 2½%, and near-term CPI will be noisy due to last year’s GST/HST holiday effects.Policy stance deemed appropriate, with the current rate viewed as the right level to keep inflation close to 2% amid structural trade adjustments; BoC remains ready to respond if the outlook deteriorates.In his opening statement, Governor Tiff Macklem said the Bank of Canada emphasize 5 key points:5 key bullet points from BOC Macklems opening statement:BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, judging it appropriate to keep inflation near 2% during a period of structural trade adjustment.US tariffs are hitting key sectors, but the overall Canadian economy remains more resilient than expected.CPI inflation stays contained near 2%, with core around 2½–3%, and temporary near-term volatility expected.Labour market shows modest improvement, though hiring intentions and trade-sensitive sectors remain weak.Elevated uncertainty—especially US trade policy and CUSMA review—means the BoC is prepared to respond if the outlook shifts.USDCAD Slides as Sellers Regain Control After Failed Test of Key Technical LevelsFollowing the Bank of Canada decision, USDCAD initially moved higher, but the upside momentum stalled at the 100-hour moving average, where buyers quickly turned into sellers. That shift pushed the pair back below the 50% retracement of the rise from the mid-June low, a key technical level at 1.3839. The Fed decision later reinforced the downside momentum, driving the pair to a post-announcement low of 1.37989, just under the 1.3800 psychological level.During today’s Asian session, USDCAD attempted a rebound, climbing toward Tuesday’s low near 1.3823, but sellers again defended the level and forced another rotation lower. The pair has now pushed to a fresh low and is testing the 61.8% retracement of the entire move up from the mid-June low at 1.37684. A decisive break below this Fibonacci support would open the door toward a major swing-area floor between 1.3720 and 1.37257, defined by three separate lows from August through September — a zone where buyers previously stepped in to halt declines.Sellers in control, but testing a key target retracement level. Video Analysis: USDCAD Technical Bias, Targets, and RiskIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) outline the key levels in play for the USDCAD and define (and show/explain) the bias, the targets and the risk from a technical perspective. Watch the full breakdown in the video above. Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe US stock market painted a mixed picture today. Leading the charge was the financial sector, with notable gains seen in Visa, up by 1.42%, and JPMorgan Chase holding steady. Meanwhile, the technology sector faced headwinds, particularly within semiconductors. Stocks like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices plunged by 2.15% and 2.63% respectively, contributing to the overall downturn in tech.? Technology & SemiconductorsThe spotlight was on the semiconductor industry, as it recorded significant losses. Both Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD showed marked declines, indicating investor anxiety around future tech growth potentials possibly due to supply chain concerns or market saturation fears.? Consumer Cyclical & Communication ServicesSectors such as consumer cyclical and communication services faced a challenging day. Amazon (AMZN) was down 0.92%, and Tesla (TSLA) decreased by 1.11%, showcasing potential investor hesitation in these areas. Google (GOOGL) saw a slight downturn of 0.13% as the overarching market uncertainty loomed.? Financial Sector ResurgenceIn contrast to the slow tech performance, financials showed more resilience. Visa's positive move and moderate gains in banks like Citigroup (C) by 0.22% highlight investor confidence in this space, perhaps indicating a shift towards traditionally stable investments.? Healthcare & Consumer Defensive SectorsElsewhere, the healthcare sector notably outperformed, with Eli Lilly (LLY) making a significant one-day gain of 1.88%. The consumer defensive sector, led by steady performers like Walmart (WMT) up by 0.24%, continues to attract attention from risk-averse investors.Market Mood and TrendsThe market sentiment today appeared cautious, driven by mixed sector performances. Investors seemed to pivot towards financials and healthcare, sectors perceived as safer bets amid the current volatility. Technology's underperformance appears concerning, potentially echoing broader economic slowdown worries.Strategic RecommendationsGiven today's market dynamics, investors may want to consider readjusting their portfolios. Focusing on financial and healthcare stocks can provide more stable ground amidst market fluctuations. Additionally, keeping a close watch on technology stock movements and related economic announcements could offer timely opportunities to reposition.For a deeper dive into the latest market signals and the implications for your investment strategy, visit InvestingLive.com. Stay informed and adapt swiftly to leverage the emerging trends. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Dow Jones Technical Analysis VideoMy technical analysis video comes before the quick FOMC review for some of the readers that may be interesting in that. Those that have already seen my videos on investingLive.com may know that I like to try to keep the charts real simple, yet effective. This means that I do not bombard my TradingView with 12 indicators and too many bells and whistles. So here it is on the 1hr timeframe, and a key bull flag that will be an important technical element in our "map":In this video, I break down the Dow Jones technical setup on the hourly chart following last night’s FOMC meeting. The Dow is currently sitting near yesterday’s close, and traders are wondering what comes next.I walk through a bull flag pattern, explain how the breakout happened during the FOMC reaction, and show how price made a clean retest of the upper trendline and the anchored VWAP from December 9. I also highlight a key level around 47,875, which may signal weakening bullish momentum if price falls below it for more than a couple of hourly candles.This video gives a clear, noise free look at the Dow using the hourly timeframe and helps you understand where the market may go next — while reminding you that post-FOMC volatility can continue. Watch the full analysis and follow the key levels and scenarios to guide your own decision makingDow Jones Technical Analysis on the Weekly TimeframeA Donchian Channel is a technical indicator that plots the highest high and lowest low over a chosen period, along with a Basis line (orang line in my weekly timeframe chart above of Dow Jones futures), which is simply the midpoint between those two extremes. Traders use the upper band to spot potential breakouts or bullish momentum, the lower band to identify possible breakdowns or bearish pressure, and the Basis to gauge the “average” location of price within the channel. When price stays above the Basis, it often signals stronger upward bias; when below, it can reflect weakening momentum. This makes the Donchian Channel a simple but useful tool for tracking volatility, trend direction, and key support or resistance areas.My chart shows that Dow futures pulled back to the basis (45,996) of the weekly Donchian channel, a level that often acts as dynamic support. The structure now looks constructive, and in my view it may want to make another attempt at the all time high (48,528). Traders should still stay alert to the possibility of a lower double top if buyers fail to hold momentum near resistance.So After We Dove into the Dow Jones Technical Analysis, What Happened at the FOMC Yesterday?The Federal Reserve (the Fed) met yesterday and made two important decisions:1. They cut interest rates againThis is the third time in a row they lowered rates. Lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper for homes, cars, businesses and credit cards. Lower rates also tend to help the stock market over time, because companies face lower costs.2. They hinted they might be done cutting for nowThis means the Fed wants to wait and see how the economy reacts before lowering rates again.3. Powell said the job market is cooling “gradually”This means, Powell is signaling that people are still getting jobs, companies are still hiring.But things are slowing down a little. Not crashing, just cooling gently.A cooling job market reduces inflation pressure, which is what the Fed wantsWhat This Means for the Dow JonesThe Dow Jones is a collection of 30 large, well known American companies. People often look at it as a general indicator of how the stock market feels.Short term (today, this week):The Dow Jones futures are currently hovering near yesterday’s close. This means the market is thinking, not panicking or celebrating.Why?Because:The Fed cut rates (positive)But may pause now (neutral)The economy is cooling slightly (mixed but not scary)So the market is steady, waiting for more information.Medium to longer term, lower rates tend to be bullish for Dow JonesLower rates usually tends to support the Dow Jones, even if the short term moves are small.So, the Fed cut rates again, the economy is cooling gently, and the Dow is calm because the news is good but not explosive. The FOMC meeting has also helped the USD go lower. And even if it not included in the Dow Jones, Oracle's significant 10% drop post earnings might not help the indices today, and overall market sentiment, either. It will be interesting to see how Oracle stock price reacts at the US market open.Who cares about the Dow Jones technicals? Many people who know me from different trading and investing groups know that I often emphasize one of the biggest advantages of technical analysis when it’s done properly. It doesn’t replace fundamentals, and it doesn’t contradict them. They actually work together, like yin and yang. But fundamentals rely on assumptions that can shift over time and are open to opininons. For example, what counts as “overvalued” changes. There were periods when a P/E of 15 was normal, and others when 25X was considered acceptable. And of course, there is always the problem of not knowing what we don’t know. Technicals, on the other hand, give us objective signals. We may not always understand why a price breaks below a key level, but if it does and it sustains there, we know it happened. That lets us react immediately instead of guessing.This Dow Jones video analysis offers exactly that kind of objective map. It gives you a clean hourly view with near term guidelines and key levels that show where the bullish premise remains valid and where it fails. If price slides back down and holds inside the channel highlighted in the video, then the previously broken bull flag is no longer valid. We also show an anchored perspective that’s worth watching. Use these levels as a practical map to guide your decisions, at your discretion. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

U.S. Jobless Claims Rebound, but Holiday Distortions Cloud the PictureU.S. initial jobless claims rebounded to 236K, above the 220K expected by economists. The prior week was also revised higher to 192K from 191K, though that earlier reading remains unusually low. It’s important to recall that last week’s sharp drop to 191K was widely viewed as an outlier, heavily influenced by the Thanksgiving holiday, which often disrupts seasonal adjustments and temporarily suppresses claims activity. The day-to-day signals less of a robust employment picture which is more in line with ADP data, and some of the other surveyed data.Continuing claims provide additional context. Last week’s total was 1.939 million, but the latest report — which also covers the Thanksgiving period — fell to 1.838 million versus 1.947 million expected. On the surface, this would normally signal a stronger labor market, as fewer individuals are remaining on unemployment benefits. However, just like the initial claims figures, these numbers are distorted by holiday effects, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions about the underlying trend.Taken together, today’s data suggest some rebound from last week’s artificially low readings, but traders and policymakers will need to wait for post-holiday, normalized data to get a clearer picture of true labor-market momentum.US trade deficit for September -52.8 billion versus -63.3 billion estimateU.S. trade figures for September released by the BLS this morning, showed meaningful improvement as exports rose to $289.3 billion, an increase of $8.4 billion from August, while imports climbed to $342.1 billion, up a more modest $1.9 billion for the month. The goods and services deficit narrowed as a result, driven primarily by a $7.1 billion reduction in the goods deficit to $79.0 billion, although this was partially offset by a $0.6 billion decline in the services surplus to $26.2 billion. Despite the monthly improvement, the broader trend remains one of widening trade gaps: year-to-date, the overall deficit has increased $112.6 billion (17.2%) compared to the same period in 2024. Both sides of the ledger have grown, with exports up $125.1 billion (5.2%) but imports rising even faster, up $237.7 billion (7.7%), suggesting domestic demand continues to outpace foreign demand for U.S. goods and services.U.S. Trade Balance by Country: September Shows Sharp Shifts in Key Bilateral FlowsThe country-level breakdown of September trade data revealed dramatic swings in several major bilateral balances. The largest U.S. trade surpluses were recorded with Switzerland ($6.6B), the Netherlands ($5.9B), South and Central America ($5.0B), Hong Kong ($2.1B), Belgium ($1.4B), Brazil ($1.3B), the United Kingdom ($1.1B), and smaller surpluses with Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore. The standout move came from Switzerland, where the U.S. shifted from a $0.1B deficit in August to a $6.6B surplus in September, driven by a $7.1B surge in exports to $10.8B, while imports edged only slightly higher. The Trump Administration enacted a surprise 39% tariff on Switzerland underscoring the decline in imports. However, recent negotiations between the U.S. and Switzerland, the two countries reached a "framework agreement" to reduce those tariffs sharply to 15% from 39%. This reduction, which brings Swiss tariffs in line with the rate applied to European Union exporters, is expected to be implemented retroactively from November 14, 2025, and will significantly lower the cost burden on Swiss exports such as pharmaceuticals, watches and precision instruments.On the deficit side, the largest trade gaps continued with Ireland ($18.2B), Mexico ($17.8B), the European Union ($17.8B), Vietnam ($14.4B), and China ($11.4B), followed by notable deficits with Taiwan, Canada, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and India. The deficit with China narrowed by $4.0B, helped by a $3.9B drop in imports to $20.1B, while U.S. exports to China rose modestly. In contrast, the deficit with Ireland widened sharply by $15.3B as imports surged $14.8B to $19.9B and exports slipped. Overall, September’s country-level data highlight a mix of improving balances with key Asian partners like China, alongside sizable deteriorations with import-heavy markets such as Ireland and Mexico.Powell Signals Confidence as Fed Cuts Rates and Tariff Effects Dominate Inflation OutlookThe Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, with Chair Powell emphasizing that the economy — and monetary policy — is now in “a good place.” Powell noted that if not for tariffs, inflation would already be at the Fed’s 2% target, describing the tariff impact as a one-time price adjustment rather than a sustained inflation driver. If that shock fades in the second year of the Trump administration, Powell argued, inflation should naturally drift back toward 2%. He added that disinflation in services continues to progress, while goods inflation remains elevated primarily because of tariff-related cost pressures, reinforcing the message that underlying inflation trends are moving in the right direction once policy distortions unwind. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. dollar is moving lower at the start of the North American session after early-session gains were fully erased. As U.S. traders entered, the tone shifted decisively, with downward pressure on yields helping to weigh on the greenback. The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 3.3 basis points at 4.131%, a notable pullback considering that just yesterday it briefly pushed above 4.20% ahead of the FOMC decision. Falling yields continue to be a key driver behind the dollar’s retreat as fixed-income markets reassess the Fed’s path into 2026.FOMC Recap: A Divided Vote and a Lower-Rate NarrativeThe Federal Reserve delivered the widely expected 25 bp rate cut, but the vote revealed deeper divisions within the committee:9 members supported the 25 bp cut1 member voted for a more aggressive 50 bp cut2 members — Goolsbee and Schmid — preferred no changeChair Powell emphasized that policy is now “in a good place” and approaching neutral, a characterization that helped push yields sharply lower after the announcement. Powell said inflation remains above target, but argued that without the tariff effects, inflation would already be at 2%. He described tariffs as a “one-time impact”, implying inflation will fall as long as tariffs don’t increase further.Markets quickly leaned into the dovish interpretation, and rate-cut probabilities for June 2026 have surged above 80%, especially as the incoming Fed chair has signaled support for a lower-rate environment.Importantly, all 12 voting members — including regional presidents — hold equal decision-making power, underscoring that the policy shift is being shaped by a broader committee, not just the Chair’s influence.Technical Outlook: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSDIn the accompanying video, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) walk through the major USD pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — detailing:Key bias levels that define directional preferenceRisk parameters traders should monitor as intraday catalystsUpside and downside target zones based on recent swing structures and moving-average dynamicsThese technical frameworks help traders shape their roadmap for the North American session, especially as volatility increases around shifting yield expectations.U.S. Equities: Indices Rally Post-FOMC, but AI Takes a HitU.S. stocks finished solidly higher following the Fed announcement:Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.05% (new record close)S&P 500: +0.67%NASDAQ: +0.33%Russell 2000: new record close as wellThe initial relief rally is now being tested by renewed concerns in the AI sector following Oracle’s earnings.Oracle Earnings: Strong EPS, Weak Guidance, and Heavy Capex ShockOracle reported EPS of $2.26, easily beating the $1.64 estimate, but revenue missed slightly at $16.06B vs. $16.19B expected. The real impact came from guidance and spending:Why the Market Reacted BearishlyOracle slumped 13% premarket after issuing weaker-than-expected forward guidance.Capex surged to a record $12B last quarter (vs. $8.4B expected).Full-year capex guidance was boosted sharply from $35B to $50B.While aggressive capex has historically benefited Nvidia and other chipmakers by supporting AI-infrastructure demand, investors now fear the spending curve may be unsustainable. Compounding concerns, Oracle indicated it plans to secure chip supply from Nvidia competitors, an added blow to sentiment.AI-Related Stocks Under PressureNvidia: –1.4% premarket at ~$181.25Broadcom: –1.12%Micron: –1.12%Intel: –1.28%AMD: –1.26%The reaction has reignited broader AI-bubble fears and is weighing on the major indices.Index Futures and U.S. Yield SnapshotFutures Ahead of the OpenDow: +13.25 pointsS&P 500: –20.68 pointsNASDAQ: –126 pointsTreasury Yields — Early North American Levels2-year: 3.532% (–3.3 bps)5-year: 3.709% (–4.5 bps)10-year: 4.133% (–3.3 bps)30-year: 4.778% (–1.7 bps)The curve is seeing a broad softening in yields, reinforcing the dollar’s bearish tone.Commodities and Digital AssetsCrude Oil: –$0.66 at $57.80Gold: –$20 at $4207Silver: +$0.47 at $62.18 and on pace for another recordBitcoin: –$2,000 at $90,020Silver remains the standout, continuing its record-setting streak.Upcoming U.S. Data: Initial Jobless ClaimsAt 8:30 AM ET, the U.S. will release weekly initial jobless claims:Expected: 220KPrior: 191K (likely distorted by the Thanksgiving holiday)Markets will be watching closely for normalization after last week’s surprise drop This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

SNB Chairman Schlegel: SNB policy to stoke inflation slowly in the next quartersSNB leaves interest rates unchanged at 0.00% as expected in DecemberFX option expiries for 11 December 10am New York cutWhat are the main events for today?It's been an empty session in terms of data releases and notable newsflow. The only highlight was the SNB monetary policy decision. The central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 0.00% as expected and slightly downgraded inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027. The economic outlook was upgraded due to the recent decrease of US tariffs on Swiss goods to 15%. Chairman Schlegel downplayed the disappointing inflation readings in the recent months and reiterated that the Bank expects inflation to pick up slowly in the next months due to expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.The Swiss Franc was mostly unchanged after the decision and the press conference, but started to pick up steam on a broad USD weakness that eventually led to a break below the key support around the 0.7980 level on USDCHF.In the markets, the US dollar remains on the backfoot following the dovish Fed Chair Powell's press conference where he downplayed the inflation risk and put more emphasis on the labour market.The US equities, after giving back the post-FOMC gains overnight, are now recovering the losses. US Treasury yields are trading near today's lows, which also underpinning gold and silver.In the American session, the main highlight will be the release of the US Jobless Claims figures. Initial Claims are expected at 220K vs 191K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1947K vs 1939K prior.The data has been pointing to a "low firing, low hiring" labour market for a very long time, and as Fed Chair Powell said yesterday, that's an unusual situation. The Fed is trying to help the demand side and turn it more into a "low firing, higher hiring" labour market without stoking inflation. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTSIndian Rupee fell to a new record lowUS-India trade talks ongoingIndia inflation data to be released tomorrowFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe USD weakened across all the major currencies following the Fed’s decision as the central bank communicated a higher bar for further rate cuts, but Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish message by downplaying inflation risk and focusing more on the labour market. Despite that, the INR fell into new record lows against the US dollar as the structural headwinds keep the pair in a bullish trend. We have US-India trade talks underway in New Delhi at the moment, and although a trade deal is still seen some distance away, India is hoping to seal at least a basic framework before year-end. That could give the Indian Rupee some relief although it wouldn’t change the big picture trend. In case, we get some negative news, then the INR will likely fall some more.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR has been trading in a rising channel, with the price getting closer to the upper bound of the channel around the 91.00 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the top trendline to position for a pullback into the lower bound of the channel. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new record highs.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair rose into a new record high before pulling back a bit. The sellers will likely step in here with a defined risk above the recent high to target a pullback into the 89.70 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 91.00 level.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the break above the minor resistance zone around the 90.05 level increased the momentum as more buyers piled in to target new record highs. If we get a pullback, the buyers will be looking for dip-buying opportunities around the 90.05 level and the 89.70 support. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for downside breaks to keep targeting new lows.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have Indian inflation data. Since yesterday, we have US-India trade talks ongoing for a two-day meeting. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTSStuck in a range between 4250 resistance and 4150 supportMedium-term bias remains bullish, short-term bias to be decided by NFP/CPIFed's decision mostly as expected, Fed Chair Powell a bit dovishFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold remains stuck in a range between the 4250 resistance and the 4150 support as market participants continue to play the range awaiting a breakout. The Fed yesterday delivered on expectations cutting by 25 bps and signalling a higher bar for further rate cuts. Fed Chair Powell though sounded a bit dovish by downplaying the inflation risk and putting more focus on the labour market. Next week, we get the key US NFP and CPI reports. Weak data is likely to keep supporting gold into new all-time highs, while strong data should trigger a bigger pullback. Today, we have also the US Jobless Claims report but it's unlikely to be a game-changer unless we get big deviations, especially on the continuing claims side. In the bigger picture, gold should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s dovish reaction function. But in the short term, a further hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations should weigh on the market.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see clearly see the rangebound price action between the 4250 resistance and the 4150 support. The market participants will likely continue to play the range by buying at support and selling at resistance until we get a breakout on either side. A break below the support and the trendline, should open the door for a move into the 4025 zone. That's going to be the next support for the buyers where they will be looking for dip-buying opportunities. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there's not much we can add here as we just have a rangebound price action with no clear levels for to lean on to. It's just about playing the range until a breakout or waiting for the key catalysts next week. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US Jobless Claims data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

We will continue to observe the situation and adjust monetary policy where necessary to keep price stabilityLow interest rate is effective through the exchange rateMidterm inflation pressure is practically unchanged since the previous quarterWe remain ready to intervene in the currency market as necessaryOur monetary policy remains expansiveMonetary policy also supports growthUncertainty has declined slightly, compared to last assessmentExpect global economy to grow moderately over the next quartersHowever, significant risks persist for global economy, with US tariffs among themMonetary policy is appropriateCannot comment on future decisionsImportant is the medium term outlook for inflation, which is basically unchangedUnemployment expected to rise slightly, but could then fall againWe have no preference for inflation as long as it is in the target rangeThe bar for negative rates is higher, but remain ready to use them if necessaryFiscal situation expected to be supportive for global economy in the coming yearInterest rate differential between currencies is an important factor for exchange rateAs expected, the SNB downplays the weaker inflation readings we saw in recent months and expects inflation to rise in the coming quarters due to the expansionary monetary policy and better economic growth forecasts.As a reminder, the US lowered the tariffs on Swiss goods to 15% from the 39% they imposed previously, the highest level among European countries.This just reaffirms once again that the SNB is unwilling to go back into NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) without clear deflationary data or negative global economic shocks.REACTIONThe USDCHF is now back to flat on the day. As mentioned here, given that it was mostly expected and we have the market pricing 0% chances of further rate cuts, the CHF is unlikely to run much on the back of the SNB policy. In fact, the currency has been mostly driven by the changes in risk sentiment.The pair bounced right at the key support zone around the 0.7980 level as the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally back into the 0.81 handle. The sellers will need to see the price breaking below this support to open the door for more downside. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Introduction: What Is Crypto Trading?Crypto trading involves buying and selling digital currencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, to profit from their price fluctuations. Unlike traditional markets like shares or foreign exchange (forex), the cryptocurrency market operates on blockchain technology and is open all the time, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.In simple terms, when engaging with cryptocurrencies, you purchase when you believe the price will rise and sell when you expect it to fall.Example: If you buy Bitcoin (BTC) when it costs $97,000 because you think it will increase in value, and then sell it later when the price is $100,000, you make a profit of $3,000 (after deducting any trading fees).The cryptocurrency market is relatively new compared to stocks or forex, but its rapid price changes, accessibility from anywhere in the world, and growing popularity make it an attractive option for new traders.How Does Crypto Trading Work?Crypto trading involves guessing whether the price of a digital asset will go up or down. This trading occurs on platforms called crypto exchanges, which connect people who want to buy and sell cryptocurrencies.Types of ExchangesCentralized Exchanges (CEXs): These are platforms like Binance, Coinbase, or Kraken. They act as middlemen to match buyers with sellers and usually offer user-friendly apps, charts, and plenty of trading opportunities.Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs): These are peer-to-peer platforms built on blockchain technology, like Uniswap or PancakeSwap. On these platforms, trades happen directly between users without a middleman.Trading DirectionsJust like in forex or stock trading, you can trade in two ways:Go long (buy): If you believe the price of a cryptocurrency will rise.Go short (sell): If you expect the price to fall (this option is available on some exchanges through advanced trading methods).Price Quotes and FeesCrypto prices are displayed in pairs, such as BTC/USDT or ETH/USD, showing how much one cryptocurrency is worth in relation to another. Each trade involves:The buy price (ask): The lowest price a seller will accept.The sell price (bid): The highest price a buyer is willing to pay.The spread: The difference between the buy and sell prices, which is generally small for popular pairs.Fees or commissions, which differ from one exchange to another.Example: On Binance, if the BTC/USDT pair shows a buy price of $90,000 and a sell price of $89,950, the spread is $50. If you buy at $90,000 and later sell at $91,000, your profit of $1,000 will be slightly reduced by the exchange fees.The ability to engage in both rising and falling markets, along with the constant availability of transactions, makes crypto trading flexible but also riskier.Types of Cryptocurrencies and PairsJust like forex exchanges have different currency pairs, cryptocurrency transactions involve pairs made up of various digital assets. Not all cryptocurrencies are the same; some are widely traded and stable, while others can be more unpredictable.Major Cryptocurrencies (“Blue Chips”)These are the most established and actively traded cryptocurrencies, usually having high trading volumes and strong market presence. Examples include:Bitcoin (BTC)Ethereum (ETH)Binance Coin (BNB)Solana (SOL)Ripple (XRP)AltcoinsAn "altcoin" is any cryptocurrency that is not Bitcoin. Some altcoins have large communities and practical uses, while others are more speculative. Their trading volumes and price differences can vary. Examples include:Cardano (ADA)Avalanche (AVAX)Polkadot (DOT)Chainlink (LINK)Polygon (MATIC)StablecoinsStablecoins are cryptocurrencies linked to stable assets, such as the U.S. dollar, to minimize price volatility. They are often used as trading pairs and for quickly moving funds between exchanges. Examples include:Tether (USDT)USD Coin (USDC)Dai (DAI)Exotic or Niche TokensThese are tokens from smaller projects, meme coins, or assets linked to specific ecosystems. They usually have lower trading volumes and can be more volatile, making them riskier for beginners. Examples include:Shiba Inu (SHIB)Pepe (PEPE)Various niche DeFi or gaming tokensTip for beginners: Start trading with major cryptocurrencies paired with stablecoins or USD (like BTC/USDT or ETH/USD). These pairs are easier to work with and typically incur lower costs.Why Trade Crypto? (Advantages)Crypto trading has become popular quickly because it offers unique features that differ from traditional markets.24/7 Market Access: Unlike stock or forex markets, which close on weekends, crypto markets are always open. You can trade at any time.High Volatility: Cryptocurrencies often have large price swings. While this can be risky, it also provides chances for significant profits in a short time.Low Barriers to Entry: Many exchanges allow buying and selling with small amounts, starting from as little as $10 to $50. You can also buy fractions of cryptocurrencies, so you don’t need to buy a whole Bitcoin.Wide Range of Assets: There are thousands of coins and tokens available, giving participants access to a variety of options, from well-known projects like Bitcoin and Ethereum to new developments in DeFi, NFTs, and Web3.Innovation and Global Reach: The crypto market is influenced by worldwide adoption, technological improvements, and changes in regulations. For those who enjoy following technology and global trends, the market offers plenty of excitement.These advantages make the cryptocurrency market appealing, but they come with significant risks, which we will discuss next.Risks of Crypto TradingWhile the cryptocurrency market offers unique opportunities, it also comes with considerable risks that beginners need to be aware of.Volatility: Prices of these digital currencies can change dramatically, sometimes by more than 10% in a single day. This can create chances for profit but also means you could lose money quickly.Leverage Risk: Some exchanges allow you to borrow money to trade larger amounts (for example, 5:1 or 10:1 leverage). While this can increase your profits, it can also amplify your losses. A small price drop could wipe out your investment.Security and Hacks: Unlike traditional bank accounts, your digital assets are stored in digital wallets. If your exchange or wallet gets hacked, or if you lose your private keys, you may lose your funds permanently.Scams and Unregulated Platforms: The rapid growth of crypto has led to scams, including fake exchanges and "pump-and-dump" schemes. Some platforms operate without proper regulations, increasing the risk of fraud.Emotional Discipline: The fast-paced cryptocurrency market can trigger strong emotions, such as fear and greed. Many beginners make poor decisions, such as buying during hype or selling during price drops, without a solid trading plan.Important: Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Choose secure, regulated exchanges, enable two-factor authentication, and consider transferring long-term holdings to a private wallet for added security.Who Trades Crypto?The cryptocurrency market attracts a wide range of participants, from everyday investors to large institutions.Retail Traders: These are individual investors, often using mobile apps or online platforms, who typically start with small amounts. Retail trading has significantly contributed to the growth of the crypto market over the past decade.Institutions: Large investment firms, hedge funds, and corporations are increasingly trading cryptocurrencies. They view Bitcoin and Ethereum as alternative investments and hedge against inflation, which adds liquidity and credibility to the market.Crypto Whales: Whales are individuals or organizations that own a significant amount of a cryptocurrency. Their trading actions can significantly impact the market, especially for smaller or less liquid coins.Governments and Regulators: While governments do not trade cryptocurrencies for profit, their policies and regulations can greatly affect the market. For instance, new laws or bans can cause major price changes.Although institutions and whales can heavily influence prices, retail traders still make up a large portion of the market, making crypto one of the most accessible financial markets available today.How to Start Trading CryptoGetting started with trading cryptocurrencies doesn’t have to be complicated. Here’s a simple step-by-step guide for beginners:Step 1 – Choose a Reliable ExchangePick a trustworthy cryptocurrency exchange with a good reputation. Look for platforms that are regulated in your area or have strong security measures (like Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken). Avoid unverified platforms that promise guaranteed profits.Step 2 – Open and Verify Your AccountMost exchanges require you to complete KYC (Know Your Customer) checks, which involve providing proof of your identity and address. This adds a layer of security.Step 3 – Secure a WalletHot wallets: These are online wallets provided by exchanges or apps. They are easy to access but can be more vulnerable to hacks.Cold wallets: These are hardware or offline wallets that are more secure and recommended for storing larger amounts of cryptocurrency.Step 4 – Pick Your First Crypto PairStart by trading major cryptocurrency pairs like BTC/USDT or ETH/USD. These pairs are easier to trade and more beginner-friendly.Step 5 – Place Your First TradeChoose to buy (go long) if you expect the price to rise, or sell (go short) if you think it will fall. Note that shorting is available only on certain exchanges. Start with small amounts.Step 6 – Manage Your RiskImplement stop-loss orders to help limit potential losses when trading cryptocurrencies. Avoid using too much leverage since crypto is already highly volatile. Only risk 1–2% of your total capital on each trade.Tip for beginners: Keep a trading journal to record each trade. Write down your reasons for entering the trade, your targets, and the outcome. This practice helps you develop discipline and learn from your mistakes.Quick Glossary of Crypto Trading TermsAltcoin: Any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin, such as Ethereum or Solana.Ask Price: The lowest price a seller is willing to accept for a cryptocurrency.Bid Price: The highest price a buyer is willing to pay for a cryptocurrency.Spread: The difference between the bid and ask prices.Blockchain: A decentralized digital ledger that records all cryptocurrency transactions.Centralized Exchange (CEX): A trading platform like Coinbase or Binance that connects buyers and sellers and holds users’ funds.Decentralized Exchange (DEX): A peer-to-peer trading platform like Uniswap where trades occur directly between users.Stablecoin: A cryptocurrency tied to a stable asset (like the U.S. dollar) to reduce price fluctuations. Examples include USDT and USDC.Wallet: A digital tool for securely storing cryptocurrencies.Hot wallet: Online or app-based, convenient but more vulnerable to hacks.Cold wallet: Offline or hardware-based, more secure for long-term storage.Private Key: A unique code that provides access to your crypto funds. Losing it means losing access to your assets.Leverage: Borrowing funds to increase the size of your trade, which can magnify both gains and losses.Volatility: The degree of price fluctuations; cryptocurrencies are known for high volatility.Market Order: A trade executed immediately at the current market price.Limit Order: A trade that executes only at a specified price or better.Stop-Loss Order: An automatic order to sell when a cryptocurrency’s price falls to a certain level, used to limit losses.Whale: An individual or organization holding a large amount of a cryptocurrency, capable of influencing the market.FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): Emotional trading driven by the fear of missing a big price move.Gas Fees: Transaction fees required to process operations on a blockchain, such as Ethereum.NFT (Non-Fungible Token): A unique digital asset stored on a blockchain, often used for art or collectibles.DeFi (Decentralized Finance): Financial services like lending or trading that operate without centralized intermediaries, built on blockchain networks.Crypto Trading ExamplesLet’s go through two simple examples using Bitcoin (BTC) to see how a trade can work out.Example 1: A Winning TradeEntry: BTC/USDT buy price = $90,000You buy 1 BTC at $90,000, expecting the price to rise.Later, the sell price goes up to $92,000, and you close the trade.Result: You make a profit of $2,000 (before fees).Example 2: A Losing TradeEntry: BTC/USDT buy price = $90,000Instead of rising, the price drops to $88,500, and you sell to cut your losses.Result: You lose $1,500 (before fees).These examples show how the price changes in cryptocurrencies can lead to significant impacts on your investment both beneficial and detrimental. Proper position sizing, risk management, and using stop-loss orders are essential for protecting your capital.Final Thoughts / Next StepsCrypto trading offers continuous access, global participation, and exciting opportunities, but it also comes with significant risks due to price volatility, security issues, and limited regulations.If you’re just starting, follow these steps:Educate Yourself First: Understand the fundamentals of blockchain technology, digital wallets, and trading strategies.Practice with Small Amounts: Start with a demo account if available, or trade small positions to understand the market's pace.Choose Reputable Platforms: Use well-known exchanges with strong security practices and always enable two-factor authentication.Focus on Major Pairs: Begin with well-established cryptocurrencies like BTC/USDT or ETH/USD before exploring smaller altcoins.Manage Risk Carefully: Set stop-loss orders, limit leverage, and only trade with money you can afford to lose.Achieving success in cryptocurrency trading involves more than just pursuing quick profits; it requires discipline, effective risk management, and a commitment to ongoing learning. Start small, gain experience, and gradually expand your skills. Over time, you can explore advanced strategies like technical analysis, staking, and decentralized finance (DeFi).With patience and preparation, trading cryptocurrencies can be an exciting way to engage in one of the fastest-growing financial markets in the world.Legal DisclaimerThis content is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or derivative. Engaging in trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always verify broker licensing on official regulatory registers.Continue Your Trading JourneyIf you’re interested in exploring another growing market, check out our next guide, What Is Share Trading – A Beginner’s Guide, which explains how share trading works, key risks to consider, and steps to start safely.If you’re ready to trade digital assets, it’s crucial to choose a reliable platform or exchange. Visit our pages on Best Crypto Trading Platforms of 2025 and Best Crypto Exchanges for a comparison of trusted exchanges and platforms to help you start with confidence.Beginner FAQWhat is crypto trading in simple terms?Crypto trading is buying and selling digital assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum to make money from changes in their prices.How much money do I need to start?Many exchanges allow you to start with as little as $10–$50. You can also buy fractional amounts of cryptocurrencies, so you don’t need to purchase a whole Bitcoin.Is crypto trading legal?In most countries, yes, but regulations vary. Always check local laws and trade on reputable exchanges that follow compliance standards.Do I need a special wallet?Not initially. You can start with the exchange’s built-in wallet, but for long-term storage, a cold wallet (hardware or offline) is recommended for added security.Can I trade crypto 24/7?Yes. Crypto markets never close, unlike stock or forex markets, which have set trading hours.What’s the biggest risk for beginners?Volatility and emotional trading. Cryptocurrency values can fluctuate by 10% or more in a single day. Leveraging investments or following market trends can result in rapid losses.How do I keep my crypto safe?Enable two-factor authentication (2FA) on exchanges, avoid sharing private keys, and consider moving significant holdings to a hardware wallet.How do beginners learn about trading in cryptocurrencies?Begin by grasping the fundamentals of blockchain technology, digital wallets, and the functioning of exchanges. Utilize free online resources, tutorials, and demo accounts to practice before investing real funds. Start with small transactions, maintain a journal of your activities, and concentrate on prominent cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum (ETH) to gain confidence.Can I make $100 a day trading crypto?While it is achievable, it is not assured. Achieving $100 daily earnings depends on market dynamics, initial investment, expertise, and effective risk management. Crypto is highly volatile, so while some traders reach that target, others may lose money just as quickly. Newcomers should prioritize education and safeguarding their investments rather than fixating on daily profit targets. This article was written by investingLive at investinglive.com.

STATEMENTPrior 0.00%Willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessarySees 2025 inflation at 0.2% (0.2% prior)Sees 2026 inflation at 0.3% (0.5% prior)Sees 2027 inflation at 0.6% (0.7% prior)Sees 2025 GDP at around 1.5% ( 1.0-1.5% prior)Sees 2026 GDP at around 1.0% (1.0% prior)Inflationary pressure is virtually unchanged compared to the last monetary policy assessmentMain risk to the economic outlook for Switzerland is the development of the global economyEconomic outlook for Switzerland has improved slightly due to the lower US tariffs and somewhat better development globallyAlthough US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty weighed on the global economy, economic development in many countries has thus far remained more resilient than had been assumedBaseline scenario anticipates growth in the global economy will be moderate over the coming quartersUS tariffs and trade policy uncertainty could yet weigh more heavily on global economic momentum than ovbserved thus farAt the same time, however, it cannot be ruled out that the global economy will continue to develop better than expected in the coming quartersFull statement hereThe Swiss Franc strengthened a bit following the decision as the SNB sounded a bit more optimistic on the economy given the positive developments on the tariffs front.Given that it was mostly expected and we have the market pricing 0% chances of further rate cuts, the CHF is unlikely to run much on the back of the SNB policy. In fact, the currency has been mostly driven by the changes in risk sentiment.REACTIONWe can see in the chart above, USD/CHF extended the fall into the key support zone around the 0.7980 level following the SNB's decision. The Fed yesterday delivered on expectations too cutting by 25 bps and signalling a higher bar for further rate cuts. Fed Chair Powell though sounded a bit dovish as he mostly dismissed the inflation risk and put more focus on labour market weakness. That put further pressure on the US dollar.On the 4 hour chart above, we can see more clearly the key support zone around the 0.7980 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the recent highs around the 0.81 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.7872 level next. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

CentFX (https://centfx.com/), a fast-growing provider of digital trading and financial technology solutions, is pleased to announce its participation in the upcoming iFX Expo, taking place on February 11–12, 2026, in Dubai. As a Silver-level exhibitor, CentFX will be present at Booths 26 and 27, where the company will unveil its latest advancements aimed at redefining efficiency, security, and innovation in the global trading ecosystem.The iFX Expo is one of the world’s largest B2B fintech events, bringing together industry leaders in online trading, digital assets, payments, and financial services. CentFX’s engagement in this year’s edition marks a significant step forward in expanding the company’s presence across key international markets.Introducing CentPay: A Next-Generation Payment SolutionAt the expo, CentFX will provide a first look at CentPay, the company’s upcoming payment solution designed to deliver secure, fast, and seamless transactions for traders, brokers, and financial institutions.CentPay aims to streamline the funding process, enhance cross-border payment capabilities, and support the growing demand for reliable digital payment infrastructure within the fintech sector.Highlighting the Cent Token: Strengthening the CentFX EcosystemCentFX will also unveil key insights into the development of the Cent Token, a forthcoming digital asset designed to reinforce the company’s ecosystem. The Cent Token will support a range of utilities including enhanced platform rewards, ecosystem participation, and new layers of value for CentFX users.The introduction of the token forms part of CentFX’s broader strategy to integrate blockchain-based solutions that elevate transparency, user engagement, and operational efficiency.A Milestone in CentFX’s Global Expansion StrategyParticipation in the iFX Expo aligns with CentFX’s ongoing mission to scale its international footprint and deliver sophisticated fintech solutions tailored to the evolving needs of global markets.CentFX invites all expo attendees, industry stakeholders, and media representatives to visit Booths 26 and 27 to explore the company’s offerings and meet with its leadership team.About CentFXCentFX is a technology-driven fintech provider offering innovative solutions for trading, payments, and digital asset management. With a mission to empower users through reliability, transparency, and cutting-edge technology, CentFX continues to develop platforms and services that cater to global financial markets. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD1.1800 (EUR 2.20 bn)1.1710 (EUR 1.39 bn)1.1610 (EUR 4.59 bn)USD/JPY158.00 (US$ 919.98 mn)156.00 (US$ 1.24 bn)155.00 (US$ 876.98 mn)GBP/USD1.3250 (GBP 325.77 mn)USD/CHF0.7960 (US$ 650.00 mn)0.7900 (US$ 653.00 mn)0.7800 (US$ 451.26 mn)USD/CAD1.4000 (US$ 1.05 bn)1.3950 (US$ 1.18 bn)AUD/USD0.6750 (AUD 750.16 mn)0.6550 (AUD 1.90 bn)EUR/GBP0.8875 (EUR 298.70 mn)0.8720 (EUR 259.81 mn)0.8580 (EUR 300.00 mn)The FX option expiration price levels refer to the strike prices where option contracts are set to expire. These levels include both calls and puts.When you see "EUR/USD at 1.1600 for €4 billion" it means there is a total of €4 billion worth of options (calls + puts combined) that have a strike price of 1.1600 and are expiring at that specific time (the "New York Cut" at 10:00 AM ET).Traders watch these levels because they often act as a "magnet" for the price. This happens due to the hedging activity of the market makers (banks, dealers and so on).As the price gets closer to the strike price near expiration, these market makers must aggressively buy or sell the currency to hedge their risk. This hedging activity tends to suppress volatility and keep the price "pinned" close to the strike price until the expiration time passes.Justin prepared a weekly overview before leaving for the holidays here. For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTSThe SNB is expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.00%FX communication to remain unchangedTo downplay the recent miss in inflation dataTo upgrade future outlook due to lower US tariffs and less uncertaintyThe Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.00%. The recent inflation data missed the SNB's forecast prompting the market to increase a little bit the probabilities for negative rates. Those bets were pared following the trade deal with the US in which the tariffs on Swiss goods were lowered to 15% from 39% effective retroactively from November 14. Moreover, SNB's members have continuously donwplayed the weaker inflation readings and reiterated that the bar for negative rates was very high. The central bank is likely to keep most things unchanged with maybe a slight downgrade to 2026 inflation forecast and upgrade to growth. They should also highlight the lower US tariffs which should have a positive effect on the economy going forward. STATEMENTThere shouldn't be changes in terms of key policy messages. The SNB should keep the phrases "willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary", "will continue to monitor the situation and adjust its monetary policy as necessary" and "forecast is within the range of price stability over the entire forecast horizon".The central bank is likely to downplay the miss in inflation in the recent months and slightly downgrade the inflation forecast for 2026. It might also upgrade growth forecast in light of the recent US tariff deal. In fact, the most notable changes should be on the trade side. PRESS CONFERENCESNB's Chairman Schlegel should reiterate that they expect inflation to pick up in the next months and that the bar for negative interest rates remains very high. He's should highlight how the lower US tariffs are expected to have a positive effect on the Swiss economy in the next quarters.MARKET PRICINGDecember cut: 0% probabilityTotal 2026 tightening: 5 bpsMARKET REACTIONWe might see some short-term CHF strength on the more positive economic outlook, but in the bigger picture it shouldn't change much as the SNB will likely remain on hold for a long time. Therefore, the Swiss Franc will remain mostly a risk-on/off play for now with monetary policy divergence likely to play a bigger role in 2026 as some central banks could deliver rate hikes. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The U.S. market isn’t in a panic, and there are no immediate strategic threats, aside from concerns about a potential AI bubble, but several restraining factors remain. Beyond broader systemic issues, such as the country’s rapidly growing debt and the rising cost of servicing it, the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on the market.Rates have already been cut twice this year, but the pace has been slower than Donald Trump has been pushing for. Highly leveraged companies are also hoping for further reductions in borrowing costs. Additionally, cheaper credit can serve as a strong economic stimulus, potentially boosting overall market sentiment.So why don’t Powell and the rest of the Fed simply give in, cut rates more aggressively, and let the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other indexes climb to new highs?Because the Fed’s dual mandate is to maximize employment and maintain price stability, rather than boost stock market gains or GDP growth, the two goals currently guiding its decisions are actually pulling in opposite directions.On the labor front, momentum is clearly fading. ADP estimates that U.S. private companies cut 32,000 jobs in November, a sharp reversal from October’s 47,000 increase and far below Wall Street’s expectation of 40,000 new jobs. That alone is an argument in favor of a rate cut.On the other hand, inflation remains stubbornly high. The headline CPI stands at 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, the core CPI at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, and the “supercore” services index, favored by Powell, remains at 3.3% year-on-year. This presents a compelling argument for maintaining the current rates.Now imagine Powell resigns tomorrow and is replaced by a more aggressively dovish Fed chair, with the rest of the committee backing this approach. Even if the inflation data call for caution, what could go wrong?First, it could reignite inflation. Second, it could erode confidence in the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt, potentially destabilizing the financial market as a whole. Stocks might initially surge, but the long-term consequences could be much worse. We have seen similar examples before: when gold prices surged alongside U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index fell, following a presidential attack on Powell, urging him to make faster and deeper rate cuts.In short, anyone expecting Powell's replacement by a more moderate chair to give a clear boost to the markets may see a short-term improvement, but over time, the costs could be much higher. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

In the European session, we have the Swiss National Bank (SNB) releasing its monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.00% and not signal anything in terms of forward guidance. Despite the disappointing inflation data in the recent months, SNB members reiterated that the bar for negative rates remains very high. They just don't want to go back into NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) without a very strong reason, that at this point looks like a global recession or some outright deflation in Switzerland. SNB's Chairman Schlegel said that they expect inflation to pick up a bit in the next months. Switzerland has also reached a deal with the US to lower the 39% tariffs on Swiss goods to 15%. That should be positive for the Swiss economy and potentially give it a little boost.In the American session, the main highlight will be the release of the US Jobless Claims figures. Initial Claims are expected at 220K vs 191K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1947K vs 1939K prior.The data has been pointing to a "low firing, low hiring" labour market for a very long time, and as Fed Chair Powell said yesterday, that's an unusual situation. The Fed is trying to help the demand side and turn it more into a "low firing, higher hiring" labour market without stoking inflation.Central bank speakers:09:00 GMT/04:00 ET - SNB Press Conference10:00 GMT/05:00 ET - BoE's Bailey (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.