The Nikkei is up 0.2% in morning trade in what would be the second day of gains. We are pushing towards the top half of the range over the past month but don't appear to be in a hurry to get there. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 3.60%The decision was unanimous The last cut was in AugustThe next decision is Feb 3Highlights from the statement:Recent data suggests risks to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take "a little longer" to assesses the persistence of inflation pressuresVarious indicators suggest that labor market conditions remain a little tightBoard will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisionsEconomic activity continues to recoverUncertainty in the global economy remains significant but so far there has been minimal impact on overall growth and trade in Australia's major trading partnersIs this the bottom in rates? The market is pricing in a hike by August 2026.AUD/USD fell about 15 pips on the headlines but quickly recovered, suggesting the market was worried about something more hawkish. A bit of the March hike probability has faded, down to about 27% from 33%.The upcoming inflation figures are going to be major AUD movers. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gambling, sports betting, crypto speculation and now online trading are part of a bigger trend of deregulation of vice and the lack of predictable pathways to succeed in the modern world.Here is a great essay from John Ehrett on what has young men struggling so badly and turning towards so many high risk behviours. The argument is that the economy is increasingly random. It argues that for Gen Z men, the link between effort and reward has broken, turning life into a low-probability trade where many are checking out and others are taking wild risks for a chance at a comfortable life.College admissions are now opaque and random, and there's a deep sense that it's rigged by alumni and other connectionsHiring and resume keywords are an algorithmic black boxDating apps have turned romance into a high-frequency trading environmentI'm not sure I agree with some of his solutions but the system needs to stop feeling like a slot machine. The "social contract" has stopped working for young people and it can't last. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The RBA decision is at 2:30 pm Sydney time or 0330 GMT or 10:30 pm in New York. There is a news conference an hour later and that will be critical.I find the RBA to be a critical central bank to watch as it's at the leading edge of the large group of central banks that cut rates following the inflation spike but has now found a bottom. The next move -- it appears -- will be to start hiking rates. The timing of that is what has my attention and here is what the market sees in terms of probabilities.Feb 3 (next meeting): 16% chance of a hikeMarch 17: 33% chance of a hikeMay 5: 53% chance of a hikeJune 16: 78% chance of a hikeAug 11: 1 hike fully priced in, small chance of a secondDec 8: 1 hike fully priced in, 60% chance of a secondIf the RBA and Bullock are hawkish, look for those numbers to creep higher, though it's premature to expect any kind of strong short-term signal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's hard to believe that Charlie Munger died two years ago but with the passing of time, his advice remains some of the best stuff ever said about investing.Here is a great one:"It's amazing how intelligent it is to spend some time just sitting. A lot of people are way too active."Along the same lines:"If we've got one thing we can do more of, we're not interested in anything that's not better than that. That simplifies life a great deal."The barrage of information in today's world and the low cost of trading lead to one of the great investing vices: Over-trading.And if you want to go back 100 years before Munger, here is the advice from Larry Livermore:“It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was my sitting.” “Got that? My sitting tight!”Find something you have great conviction in and at a good price. Buy it and wait. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The latest yuan fix is out. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior business conditions +9Business confidence +1 vs +6 prior National Australia Bank, one of the country’s “Big Four” banks. This survey combines three components—trading conditions, profitability, and employment—into a single index that shows whether business activity is expanding or contracting. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +1.5%Total sales +1.4% y/y vs +1.6% priorA separate survey from Barclays put UK consumer spending down 1.1% in November, worse than -0.8% in October. It was also the worst y/y reading since Feb 2021. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump is busy on Truth Social today:Mexico continues to violate our comprehensive Water Treaty, and this violation is seriously hurting our BEAUTIFUL TEXAS CROPS AND LIVESTOCK. Mexico still owes the U.S over 800,000 acre-feet of water for failing to comply with our Treaty over the past five years. The U.S needs Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest must come soon after. As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water. That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY. The longer Mexico takes to release the water, the more our Farmers are hurt. Mexico has an obligation to FIX THIS NOW. Thank you for your attention to this matter!I'm sure there is more than one side to this story but it's one that nags at one of the classic geopolitical angsts -- water. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump: Will end up putting severe tariffs on fertilizer from Canada if they have toUS Treasury Secretary Bessent We are still working on a trade deal with India:Crude oil futures settle at $58.88Trump news: WIll provide 12 billion in aid to farmersAUDUSD Technicals: The AUDUSD is correcting lower ahead of the RBA rate decisionU.S. Treasury sold $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.614%US to allow Nvidia H200 chip exports to ChinaUkraine Zelenskyy: Talks in London were productiveJapan government downgrades tsunami warning to tsunami advisory after earthquakeMajor European indices close mixed to start the new trading weekBLS will not publish October PPI report. November to be published on January 14New York Fed November survey says one year inflation expectations unchanged at 3.2%More on Paramount Skydance bid for Paramount. Jared Kushner involved in helping finance7.2 magnitude earthquake hit off northern JapanParamount Sky Dance launches all cash tender to acquire Warner Bros. for $30/shareWH Econ Advisor Hassett: We should continue to get the rate down someThe USD is little changed to kickstart the new trading day.What are the technicals saying?investingLive European FX news wrap: ECB's Schnabel is fine with rate hike betsU.S. Treasury yields moved higher across the curve during the US session, reinforcing demand for the dollar and helping to lift the USD broadly against its major counterparts. Although the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates, market sentiment has shifted toward the idea of a hawkish cut — one in which policymakers lower rates but pair the move with firmer guidance on inflation risks and a cautious path for future easing.The rise in yields, combined with the hawkish-leaning policy outlook, boosted the greenback.Below is a snapshot look of the change of the USD vs the major currencies today:EUR, +0.03%JPY +0.37%GBP +0.05%CHF, +0.30%CAD, +0.30%AUD, +0.23%NZD unchanged.Looking at the US yield curve today, despite a successful 3 year note auction, the yields did move higher across the curve but they are near the middle of the low and high trading range for the day. 2-year: 3.58% (+1.7 bps)5-year: 3.75% (+3.5 bps)10-year: 4.17% (+2.9 bps)30-year: 4.81% (+1.8 bps)Kevin Hassett — the current White House economic adviser and frontrunner to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve — told CNBC that the Fed should continue to “get the rate down some,” stressing the need to watch incoming data carefully because many pieces are still missing. investingLive He praised the current chair for “herding the cats,” but argued real-wage growth and positive supply shocks are the way to restore living standards and anchor long-term growth. Against that backdrop, he suggested there is plenty of room for the 10-year Treasury yield to drop, hinting at possible market support if rates are cut.In other economic news out of the NY Fed, the New York Fed’s November consumer survey showed that inflation expectations remained stable across all horizons, with the one-year outlook holding at 3.2% and both the three- and five-year measures steady at 3%. Home-price expectations were also unchanged at 3%. Despite that stability, households grew more pessimistic about their current and future financial situations, and expectations for medical-cost inflation surged to the highest level since January 2014. At the same time, labor-market sentiment improved modestly, suggesting consumers see job conditions as a relative bright spot even as broader financial concerns persist.In other news, a powerful magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck off northern Japan, triggering tsunami warnings and raising concerns about potential infrastructure damage and economic disruption. The shock created a bout of risk aversion in financial markets, which led to selling pressure on the Japanese yen as investors reassessed exposure to Japan and moved capital into safer or higher-yielding assets. That yen weakness helped push USD/JPY higher, and the pair broke above the 200-hour moving average at 155.628, a key technical level that shifts short-term momentum firmly in favor of the dollar. Holding above this moving average keeps the bullish bias intact, with the quake-related uncertainty reinforcing the market’s willingness to sell JPY until conditions stabilize.U.S. equities finished the session mostly under pressure as defensive positioning, higher Treasury yields, and scattered sector rotation weighed on sentiment:Dow Jones Industrial Average: 47,739.32 (-215.67, -0.45%)S&P 500: 6,846.51 (-23.89, -0.35%)Nasdaq Composite: 23,545.90 (-32.22, -0.14%) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Same approach will apply to AMD, Intel and othersThere have been various reports about this for weeks, but earlier today there were stronger signsShares of Nvidia rose after hours to $187.30 from $185.50.Here is what Trump said on Truth Social:I have informed President Xi, of China, that the United States will allow NVIDIA to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China, and other Countries, under conditions that allow for continued strong National Security. President Xi responded positively! $25% will be paid to the United States of America. This policy will support American Jobs, strengthen U.S. Manufacturing, and benefit American Taxpayers. The Biden Administration forced our Great Companies to spend BILLIONS OF DOLLARS building “degraded” products that nobody wanted, a terrible idea that slowed Innovation, and hurt the American Worker. That Era is OVER! We will protect National Security, create American Jobs, and keep America’s lead in AI. NVIDIA’s U.S. Customers are already moving forward with their incredible, highly advanced Blackwell chips, and soon, Rubin, neither of which are part of this deal. My Administration will always put America FIRST. The Department of Commerce is finalizing the details, and the same approach will apply to AMD, Intel, and other GREAT American Companies. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's decision day for the Reserve Bank of Australia.Unfortunately for us, the decision itself will be drama free with no change in the 3.60% case target expected whatsoever. What's starting to get interesting is 2026 as the market is now fully priced for at least one rate hike. At the March meeting, there is a 33% chance of a hike priced in and that could swing today based on Governor Michelle Bullock, who has noted inflationary pressures recently.The decision is at 2:30 pm Sydney time or 0330 GMT or 10:30 pm in New York. There is a news conference an hour later.Three hours before the RBA decision, we get the November Australian NAB business confidence survey.That just about wraps up what we're expecting for the session. Eamonn is out this week and I'm covering for him. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Pres. Trump on Canada says:Will end up putting severe tariffs on fertilizer from Canada if they have toIn other Trump comments:EU fine on X is a "nasty one"Elon has not called meON bids for Warner Bros: I'd have to see Netflix, Paramount % of the marketI want to do what is rightNeither Netflix, Paramount are friends of mineHas not talked to Kushner about Paramount bidOn related trade news, the US ambassador to Canada says:Trump does not want to terminate the USMCA trade deal with This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

When asked about a trade deal with India, US Treasury Secretary Bessent says:We are still working on a India tradeCompanies like Nike export from India. Their stuff today is down sharply but -3.89% at $63.30. In the tumble, the price has moved back below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages at $64.06 and $63.86 respectively. That shifts the bias back in favor of the sellers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures settle at $58.88. Down $1.20 or -2.0%. The high price reached $60.30. The low price was at $58.68. Technically, the ups and downs continue. The price rallied to a more recent cycle high near $60.50 on Friday. But today the price rotated to the downside falling back below the 100 hour moving at $59.40, and then the 200 hour moving average at $59.08. The next target comes between $58.27 and $58.49. Below that and traders will look toward the November lows between $57.10 and $57.39. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump News:Taking action to protect farmersUS will take small portion of tariff revenues to give it to farmers We will provide $12 billion in aid to farmersHe spoke with Xi and he thinks China will buy even more soybeans than promised.He added:We willl take off a lot of environment rules that affect tractor companies.We will take those rules off and want reduction in prices on farming equipment.Farming equipment has gotten too expensiveFor Fiscal Year 2025 (Ended Sept 30, 2025): The US collected approximately $195 billion to $215 billion in customs duties. This represents a massive increase—roughly 150% to 250% higher than the previous year.Fiscal Year 2024: For comparison, the US collected roughly $77 billion in customs duties.Since the start of the fiscal 2026 year, (Started Oct 1, 2025):Collections remain at record highs. In October 2025 alone, the Treasury reported collecting roughly $34 billion, putting the US on pace for another record-breaking year if current policies remain in place. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to keep the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.6% when it announces its decision at 10:30 PM ET.. We won't get the economic projections at this meeting, so the focus will be on the statement and the press conference. The expectations are for the central bank to remain cautious and acknowledge the risks around inflation, but a hawkish shift in stance is a risk. RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted that inflation has recently surprised to the upside and that the economy has likely reached, or is very near, its potential growth limit, even though the exact size of the output gap remains uncertain. She said the labor market is still a bit tight and that some of the recent rise in trimmed-mean inflation may prove temporary, but the RBA is watching the latest inflation data very closely. Bullock emphasized that if inflation turns out to be more persistent than expected, it would have important implications for monetary policy going forward.The AUDUSD has been trending steadily higher since bottoming on November 21, with momentum boosted last week after CPI inflation ticked up to 3.8% from 3.6% the prior month. Since the November 21 low at 0.64206, the pair has climbed to a high of 0.66488, reached on Friday and approached again today, with intraday highs touching 0.6648.A major turning point came on November 25, when the price broke above the 100-hour moving average (now at 0.6610) and the 200-day moving average. From there, buyers extended control, pushing the pair above the 200-hour moving average (currently 0.6532), the 100-day moving average, the 50% midpoint, and the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the September 17 high at 0.6563 and 0.6597 respectively. Today’s low at 0.6615 held just above the rising 100-hour MA, reinforcing that level as key short-term support.Into the RBA rate decision, a break below the 100-hour MA at 0.6610 — and a stay below it — is step one for sellers looking to shift momentum. Below that, downside targets include: • the broken 61.8% retracement at 0.65972 • the rising 200-hour MA at 0.6573 • the 50% midpoint of the September decline at 0.65635On the topside, resistance sits first at the Friday/Today high of 0.66488. A break above that level opens the door toward the September 18 swing high at 0.66588, followed by the September 17 highs at 0.66888 and 0.6706.The video above walks through the full roadmap and outlines how traders may navigate the pair into and through the RBA decision. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

U.S. Treasury sold $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.614%. WI level at the time of the auction was 3.622%Tail -0.8 basis points versus -0.2 basis points 6 month averagebid to cover 2.64X vs 6 month average of 2.63XDirects 19.0% versus 6 month average of 24.5%.Indirects 71.97% versus 6 month average of 62.5%Dealers 9.03% vs 6 month average of 13.1%Auction Grade B+The 3 year note auction was met with strong demand from international buyers. The domestic buyers were less than average in the bid to cover was near the average. More good news was that the tail was -0.8 basis points which was much less than the -0.2 basis point average over the last 6 months. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

US is to allow Nvidia H200 chip exports to China.Some analysts view such a move as a “strategic win-win,” arguing that allowing H200 shipments would sustain China’s reliance on U.S. AI infrastructure — and potentially slow down the adoption of domestic alternativesThe H200 is more capable than the chip China is currently allowed to buy (the H20), which gives it technical appeal for high-demand applications (large-model training, inference, data-center use cases)Although good news, Jensen Huang, recently said he is not sure China would accept H200 even if restrictions are eased — Beijing may prefer home-grown chips or chips already certified under export rules. Chinese firms and regulators appear increasingly focused on domestic AI-chip makers (like Cambricon Technologies) and building self-sufficiency. There’s growing pressure—both economic and political—on companies not to rely solely on foreign hardware.Nvidia shares have moved higher and are up $3.90 or 2.15% at $186.46. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Ukraine Zelenskyy is speaking and says: Talks in London were productive.There is a small progress toward peace.Ukraine – Europe plan proposals should be ready by tomorrow to share with the US Ukraine cannot give up landThe US is trying to find a compromise on this issue This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.