Goldman Sachs is noting that even with potential for dollar weakness coming through, there is caution to be heeded in chasing commodity currencies as the play for that. The firm says that the AUD, NZD, and CAD have all touched or nearly touched their 3-month targets but have since eased against the dollar.Adding to that, they are noting that the three currencies mentioned are showing a lag compared to higher-carry EM currencies with unusual relative weakness being observed.So, what gives?Goldman Sachs is arguing that risk sentiment alone isn't enough to explain what is happening. Instead, this seems more to do with domestic policy shifts with terminal rate pricing falling in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. The firm adds that weaker domestic backdrops are also in play, warranting caution for the respective commodity currencies above.In taking advantage of downside catalysts for the dollar - which the firm attributes to Fed easing, policy uncertainty, and global flows - there are better options via the EUR and JPY. As such, Goldman Sachs is maintaining a more cautious bias on the AUD, NZD, and CAD but reaffirms that USD weakness could offer some form of upside still. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

That includes the BOJ Tankan surveyTankan survey is extremely important to gauge sentiment, capexThe risks of being behind the curve are not high right nowLong-term interest rates should be determined freely by marketsUncertainty surrounding trade policies have eased slightly compared to AprilThese are mostly token remarks, echoing what he said from earlier here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The next two days is going to be a tricky one for markets with month-end trading in focus. And perhaps we got a taste of that already yesterday. As market players move to price in ~55 bps of rate cuts for the Fed by year-end already, the dollar seemed to have found a floor as we approached US trading yesterday. But by the end of it, there wasn't much to gather with the greenback having surrendered the earlier gains.Now as we look to European trading today, major currencies are little changed so far with a lack of appetite after the back and forth action yesterday. And understandably so.With month-end flows potentially muddying the waters, it's hard to find conviction to dip your toes in during a time like this. That especially as the bigger picture focus will turn towards the US jobs report next Friday. So, there really isn't much need to be rushing for anything after markets have priced in what they have post-Jackson Hole.In terms of data releases, there is the US Q2 GDP second estimate as well as the weekly initial jobless claims for today. But barring any surprises, those won't threaten to shake things up all too much.So, the month-end focus and post-Nvidia earnings sentiment will be the two key drivers in looking to the day ahead. From earlier this week:Weak dollar selling the signal this month-end - BarclaysMild dollar selling expected into month-end fix - Credit Agricole This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Japan’s 2-year bond auction drew the weakest demand since 2009, with the bid-to-cover ratio slumping to its lowest in over 15 years. The auction also produced the widest tail since 2023, underscoring fragile investor appetite for short-dated JGBs. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Nvidia’s softer guidance and exclusion of China sales hit sentiment, sending its shares lower after-hours and weighing on US equity futures. Elsewhere, Japan headlines were dominated by tariff negotiator Akazawa’s trip cancellation and BOJ’s Nakagawa warning on trade risks, while FX and equities traded quietly.Recap: BOJ’s Nakagawa warns on tariff risks, says Tankan survey key for outlookFed Governor Waller is speaking on ThursdayJapan's Akazawa cancelled his US trip because more discussions are needed at home firstBOJ's Nakagawa: Uncertainty remains high on impact of tariffsAustralian headline capex spend for Q2 2025: +0.2% q/q (expected +0.7%, prior -0.1%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1063 (vs. estimate at 7.1479)China trade negotiator Li Chenggang in Canada: frank, pragmatic, constructive exchangesNew Zealand August business confidence 49.7% vs. prior 47.8%Bank of Korea leaves its base rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expectedNvidia dips on cautious outlook as cloud spending slows and China uncertainty lingers.Japan trade negotiator Akazawa to cancel US visit, Kyodo reportsICYMI - China seeks to triple output of AI chips in race with the US (Financial Times)Nvidia, stagflation risks loom, but BofA sees autumn dip as entry point for bullsUK services confidence slips again in August, CBI warns on costs and weak demandUBS: Swiss franc strength likely to hold even if SNB cuts rates back below zeroGlobex is open, with ES and NQ lower. NVDA earnings cited.NVDA Huang:China market, I've estimated, to be about $50bn opportunity for us this year"White House Navarro: India could get a 25% tariff reduction if it stops buying Russian oilJapan 7-Eleven parent is considering US$13bn in overseas expansionNvidia (NVDA) threatens litigation if US government seeks to take a percentage of revenueGlobal trade wars heating up - Mexico plans to increase tariffs on ChinaNvidia (NVDA) earnings report: EPS $1.05 vs. expected of $1.01investingLive Americas FX news wrap 27 Aug: A choppy session in the FX. Traders are unsureNvidia reported fiscal Q2 revenue of about US$46.7bn, up year-on-year and above consensus, but investors latched onto a softer tone:The key data-center line fell short of some expectationsQ3 revenue guidance of around US$54bn (±2%)—though above estimates—wasn’t the blowout many had anticipated. Management excluded any China H20 chip sales from its outlook amid regulatory uncertainty, but flagged a potential US$2–5bn upside if approvals and demand materialise. Nvidia also pointed to ongoing strength in AI demand, including its “sovereign AI” initiatives, and authorised more share buybacks, though warned that macro and geopolitical risks could weigh on sentiment. Shares fell after hours, dragging US equity index futures lower on Globex.Elsewhere it was a quiet session for news and data. From Japan, chief tariff negotiator Akazawa cancelled his planned US visit, said to be due to the need for administrative discussions at home. Bank of Japan board member Nakagawa also spoke, warning that uncertainty over US tariff policy remains a key risk for Japan and the global economy, while highlighting the upcoming Tankan survey as a critical gauge of trade impacts.USD/JPY held in a narrow 147.20–147.50 range, while other major FX drifted modestly softer against the dollar. Local equities traded mixed. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) +0.7%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -0.6%Shanghai Composite +0.1%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) +0.1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BOJ’s Nakagawa flagged U.S. tariff risks and said the upcoming Tankan survey will be key for assessing sentiment. The Bank is keeping a data-dependent stance, with markets still betting on another rate hike this year after its July inflation upgrade.-More:Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa warned that uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy remains a significant risk to Japan and the global economy. She pointed to the upcoming Tankan survey as a key gauge of how trade tensions are filtering through to corporate sentiment.Nakagawa said the central bank would continue to scrutinize data closely and adjust monetary policy as needed. A former Nomura Asset Management chair, she is regarded as neutral on policy.The background to her speech:The BOJ ended its massive stimulus last year and raised rates to 0.5% in January, judging that inflation was nearing its 2% target. Although the Bank held steady in July, it lifted its inflation forecasts and struck a more positive tone on growth, keeping alive expectations for another rate hike this year.A majority of analysts expect at least a 25bp hike before year-end, up from just over half in July--Earlier:BOJ's Nakagawa: Uncertainty remains high on impact of tariffs This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

At 1800 US Eastern time/2200 GMT on Thursday, August 28, 2025 Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speakson his economic outlookat an event in MiamiWaller has been currying favour with Trump in order to win the next Fed Chair job. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi:Tariff negotiator Akazawa cancelled planned U.S. visitTariff negotiator Akazawa’s cancellation of US visit is due to need of administrative discussionsHe was intending to discuss Japanese investment plans into the US:Japan's head trade negotiator Akazawa is heading back to the US on Thursday This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Nakagawa, full text:Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in JapanNakagawa:If its outlook for economic activity and prices is realized, BOJ will continue to raise the policy interest rateHigh uncertainties remain over future course of trade policies and their impactBoJ will make monetary appropriate policy decisions by continuing to carefully assess data and informationThere is possibility that upward pressure on wages and the pass-through of higher wages to selling prices will strengthenResults of the upcoming September Tankan will also be very important in examining the changes arising from factors such as progress in trade policy negotiationsIf firms focus much more on cost cutting over passing on cost increases to selling prices due to tariffs, moves to reflect price rises in wages could weakenHeightened uncertainties over trade policies are likely to affect business and household sentiment around the world, could push down Japan, overseas economies Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part There are high uncertainties regarding outlook for economic activity and pricesFuture developments in such factors as firms’ behavior shifting more toward raising wages and prices warrant careful attentionNakagawa is hedging both ways with these remarks. I guess we do what he suggests and pay attention to the Bank of Japan September Tankan report. Expect the Tankan report for September 2025 to drop on September 30 or October 1, 2025.The Tankan survey is a quarterly survey conducted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to measure the economic health of Japanese companies. The survey is widely considered to be one of the most important indicators of the Japanese economy, as it provides a detailed snapshot of the current and expected business conditions among large manufacturers, non-manufacturers and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Japan.The survey is based on a sample of approximately 10,000 companies and covers a wide range of topics, including business conditions, investment plans, and employment. The survey results are used by the BOJ and other government agencies to make policy decisions, and are also closely watched by economists, investors, and businesses. The Tankan survey is usually released in the first week of the month following the quarter it covers, and it's considered as a leading indicator for the Japanese economy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The market was not impressed with NVDA earnings, marking shares down in after hours:Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report: EPS $1.05 vs. expected of $1.01The subsequent earnings call has thrown up some intersting items:Nvidia (NVDA) threatens litigation if US government seeks to take a percentage of revenueMore:Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang underscored the importance of China to the chipmaker’s future, describing it as a $50 billion opportunity for the company in 2025. said the market could expand at an annual pace of around 50%, making it a critical driver of growth.China is the second largest computing market in the worldChina is home to about half of the world’s AI researchers, the majority of leading open-source AI models are being developed there, underscoring the country’s role in shaping global artificial intelligence innovation.Huang argued that it is vital for U.S. technology companies to remain engaged in the Chinese market despite ongoing political and trade headwinds.On cloud issues:"We're in every cloud for a good reason. Not only do are we the most energy efficient, our performance per watt is the best of any computing platform. And in a world of power limited data centers, perf per watt drives directly to revenues." This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

White House’s Navarro remarks on tariffs: India could receive a 25% tariff reduction if it stops purchasing Russian oil Must prevent India and China from buying Russian oil.Trump uses tariffs not only as an economic tool, but as a political tool. In this case to try to pressure Russia. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

7-Eleven parent eyes $13Bn investment in overseas expansion – Nikkei with the report:Seven & I Holdings considering spending roughly 2 trillion yen over next several years in an overseas expansion Seven & I Holdings looking to invest $13.6Bn between current financial year through fiscal 2030 Seven & I currently determining the specifics of the scales of investment, according to CEO Dacus This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Nvidia (NVDA) call now US govt has not pubbed regulation codifying 15%Says US government officials expressed expectation that the US government will receive 15% of revenue generated from licensed H20 salesSays any request for a percentage of revenue may subject US to litigationIf geopolitical issues resolve the firm could ship US$2 billion to $5 billion in H20 revenue in Q3 and if it had more ordersWe are at the beginning of an industrial revolution that will transform every industry. We see US$3 to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade. The scale & scope of these buildouts present significant long-term growth opportunities for NVIDIA This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mexico plans to increase tariffs on imports from China. Info via a Bloomberg report:Mexican government to raise tariffs as part of its 2026 budget proposalThe government taking its cues from requests from Trump, also seeking to shelter domestic industries from low-cost competitiontariff increases will apply to sectors such as automobiles, textiles, and plastics This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

None of this is likely to have too much impact on marekts on the session. Eyes are on global developments and not so much on local data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report, a beat for EPS but market seems disappointed.Adj. EPS 1.05 (exp. 1.00), Revenue 46.74bn (exp. 45.51bn)Q3 revenue outlook $52.9bn to $55.1bn, vs. expected $53.46bn ... this tepid outlook is attracting the attention of the bearsThe firm announce an additional USD 60bln share buyback.Data center revenue $41.18, vs. expected $41.29bn ... this slight miss is attracting the attention of the bearsGaming revenue $4.3bn, vs. expected $3.828bnCompute revenue $33.84bn vs. expected $35.87bnHas not assumed any H20 shipments to China in outlook No H20 sales to China-based customers in Q2-The "not assumed any H20 shipments to China in outlook" is interesting. If the firm does sell to China over the three months ahead that'll be a strong tailwind. Something to keep an eye on. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Major European stock indices closed higher for the day. Nvidia earnings after the close.Crude oil settles at $64.15U.S. Treasury sells $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 3.724%Treasury Secretary Bessent: Will start interviewing Fed candidates after Labor DayThe European indices close mostly lowerWSJ: What if Trump Runs the Federal Reserve?NY Fed Pres. Williams: Fed's independence is important. Inflation/employment more balancedThe USD has moved higher and the greenback buyers are taking back control technicallyinvestingLive European markets wrap: Dollar continues to claw back Jackson Hole declineUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 22 August -0.5% vs -1.4% priorIt was another choppy session in FX, with the dollar moving lower early before bouncing back into the close. The greenback is ending the day mixed and little changed overall: slightly higher vs the EUR (+0.09%) and flat vs the JPY, while modestly lower against the GBP (-0.12%), CHF (-0.10%), and NZD (-0.02%). The largest moves came against the commodity currencies, with the USD down 0.33% vs the CAD and 0.25% vs the AUD.Earlier in the U.S. session, the dollar was firmer across the board, but those gains faded as the day wore on, leaving the FX market locked in another up-and-down pattern.U.S. yields reversed lower after an early rise, but the yield curve continued to steepen, with the 2s–30s spread widening to its highest level since January 2022. The move reflects growing market concern over the Federal Reserve’s independence and the potential for greater political influence on monetary policy.The U.S. Treasury’s $70 billion 5-year note auction tailed by 0.7 bps, with a high yield of 3.724% versus a 3.717% WI. The bid-to-cover was 2.36x, right in line with the 6-month average of 2.37x. Domestic demand was notably strong, with direct bidders taking 30.7% (vs 19.4% average), while indirects were softer at 60.5% (vs 69.3%). Dealers were left with 8.8%, below their 11.2% average.Overall, the auction earns a B- grade: the tail was larger than ideal, but solid domestic demand offset weaker international interest, leaving dealers with lighter allocations.The weekly oil inventory data from the EIA showed a large expected drawdown for the 2nd consecutive week. Recall crude inventories fell by -6.014M last week . The declines give the buyers a reason to bounce after points earlier this week price back below the 200 and 100 hour moving averages. A Summary of the inventory data shows:Crude oil: -2.392M vs -1.863M expected (last week -6.014M)Gasoline: -1.236M vs -2.154M expectedDistillates: -1.786M vs +0.885M expected buildCushing: -0.838M vs +0.419M last weekWTI crude oil settled at $64.15, up $0.90 (+1.42%), near the highs of the day (high $64.23, low $62.95).Technical picture: Crude briefly broke below its 200-hour moving average for the first time since August 21, but buyers defended the level and momentum shifted back higher. The inventory drawdown helped fuel a rebound back above the 100-hour MA at $63.74, putting buyers in control in the short term.For now, the 100- and 200-hour moving averages frame the near-term battleground. A sustained move back below the 100-hour MA would neutralize the bias and put sellers back in play, while staying above keeps the upside momentum alive.In other commodity news, Gold is ending the day up $-2.92 or 0.08% at $3395.Silver is trading down $0.06 or -0.17% at $38.51.Bitcoin is trading up $215 at $112,001, holding well above Monday’s low of $108,717. Despite the rebound, the price remains capped below the falling 100-hour moving average at $112,261 and the 200-hour moving average at $113,161.From a technical perspective, a sustained break above both moving averages is needed to shift the bias more bullish and open the door for further upside momentum. Until then, the broader bias remains cautious beneath those resistance levels.US stocks moving higher with the S&P closing at a new record level.Dow industrial average up 146.98 points or 0.32% at 45565.05S&P index closed at a new record high for the 19th time this year. The index rose 15.46 points or 0.24% at 6481.40.NASDAQ index rose 45.87 points or 0.21% at 21590.14.Nvidia will announce earnings at 4:20 PM ET. Shares rose down $0.26 or -0.14% at $181.51. EPS is expected at $1 (versus $0.68 last year - up 47%) while revenues are expected at $46.05 billion (up from 30.04 billion last year – up 53%).UPDATE: EPS $1.08 REV $46.74B Expectations $54B Shares down -4.5% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

US stocks moving higher with the S&P closing at a new record level.Dow industrial average up 146.98 points or 0.32% at 45565.05S&P index closed at a new record high for the 19th time this year. The index rose 15.46 points or 0.24% at 6481.40.NASDAQ index rose 45.87 points or 0.21% at 21590.14.Nvidia will announce earnings at 4:20 PM ET. Shares rose down $0.26 or -0.14% at $181.51. EPS is expected at $1 (versus $0.68 last year - up 47%) while revenues are expected at $46.05 billion (up from 30.04 billion last year – up 53%).. With the price up 35.17% this year, there is concern about the price going too far/too fast, but is that always the way. In the after hours, In the after hours ahead of Nvidia:Snowflake (SNOW) Q2 2026EPS: $0.35 (exp. $0.27) → BEATRevenue: $1.10B (exp. $1.08B) → BEATShares are up 12.48%CrowdStrike (CRWD) Q2 2025EPS: $0.93 (exp. $0.83) → BEATRevenue: $1.17B (exp. $1.15B) → BEATDespite the beat, shares are trading down -7.9% in after-hours trading This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD, like many other pairs, has been caught in sharp two-way swings. In early U.S. trading, the pair dipped below a swing area between 1.1581–1.15885, but the move quickly failed. As has often been the case in these volatile summer sessions, the inability to extend lower sparked a reversal in the opposite direction.The rebound carried the price back above the 50% midpoint of the July 1 high-to-low range at 1.16098, which opened the door for a run toward the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.16415. Sellers stepped in at that level, capping the advance and forcing a pullback. With the 100-hour MA holding firm, it remains the key near-term resistance to beat. A sustained break above would shift focus to the 200-hour moving average at 1.16531, which would need to be cleared to strengthen the bullish case.On the downside, slipping back below the 50% midpoint at 1.16098 would give sellers fresh confidence and could restart the move back toward the earlier lows. For now, the back-and-forth price action reflects the choppy, indecisive tone of late-summer trading. Staying flexible and listening to the market remains the best approach in this environment. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $64.15. That is up $0.90 or 1.42%. The high price today reached $64.23. The low price was at $62.95. The settle prices near the high for the day.Earlier today, the price fell below its 200-hour moving average for the 1st time since August 21. The price is settling above its 100-hour moving average at $63.74. Helping the upside was a larger-than-expected drawdown of 2.4 million barrels (expectations at -1.863 million). Last week, the drawdown was a larger 6.014 million barrels. Gasoline inventories also fell by -1.236 million. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.