Prior -21.5; revised to -21.7German consumer sentiment dips further going into September, largely on job loss concerns. That's not all too encouraging even if the economy is showing better resilience in Q3, especially the industrial sector. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

NVDA Earnings Analysis – NVIDIA Stock Shows Overextended Post Earnings DriftQuick take for traders and investors interesting in Nvidia earnings tonight (Wed, 27 August, after market close)NVIDIA stock (NVDA) has drifted +30.6% since its last earnings report.Historically, NVDA’s average drift between earnings announcements is +15.3% with a typical range of about ±16.7%.This cycle’s drift is already above the average drift-to-high of +23.7%, with the current drift-to-high at +32.6%.The numbers highlight a clear case of trader and investor over-enthusiasm compared with historical norms.Extended drift going into earnings does not predict direction, but it does raise the stakes and shape risk.What post earnings announcement drift meansPost Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) is the tendency for a stock to continue trending after earnings until the next report. When a company announces results, investors reassess its value. That process doesn’t finish in one day – it often plays out across weeks or even the full quarter.Why drift occurs:New information changes the market’s perception of future earnings power.Institutional flows, such as from pensions or mutual funds, take time to reposition.Analysts and media coverage build narrative momentum, reinforcing the trend.In simple terms, PEAD measures how far a stock has run since the last earnings, both to the upside and downside, giving us a sense of market positioning before the next announcement.NVIDIA’s drift pattern across the last 12 quartersLooking at historical NVDA earnings analysis:Average drift since previous earnings: +15.3%Standard deviation (typical variability): ±16.7%Average drift-to-high: +23.7%Average drift-to-low: -15.5%Positive drift cycles: 75% of the timeAverage earnings-day move: +4.4%The data show that NVIDIA usually drifts higher post earnings and has delivered positive EPS and revenue surprises in most quarters. Yet, not every cycle is smooth. Some quarters, like February 2024, saw huge drifts (+38.5%), while November 2022 had a negative drift with steep drawdowns.Where NVDA stands ahead of earningsThis cycle:Drift since May 28 earnings: +30.6%Drift-to-high: +32.6%, well above historical averagesDrift-to-low: just -4.5%, far less than the usual -15.5% pullbacksThe message is straightforward: NVIDIA stock is extended compared with its own history. This reflects a buildup of trader excitement and investor over-enthusiasm.Extended positioning increases both upside and downside risks. If the earnings justify the optimism, NVDA can continue repricing higher. But if the report fails to meet lofty expectations, the stock could retrace quickly.The common mistake traders make during earningsA large majority of companies beat earnings expectations. That alone doesn’t drive price higher. The key is the price reaction – especially how NVDA trades after the initial knee-jerk move.The smarter way to read earnings:Watch how the stock closes on day 1 after results.Track behavior over the next 5 trading days.Check the 2-week trend to see whether stronger market participants are accumulating or reducing exposure.This tells you far more than the headline EPS beat or miss.But there is another mistake many investors make before earnings. They freeze, don't do anything, even if they see a significant down-side risk. They don't need to panic sell the entire position, but how about asking if the risky event merits taking 10% - 20^ off the table?Using drift analysis as decision supportFor different market participants:Traders already long NVDA – consider how much of the recent drift you’re willing to risk if results disappoint. Risk management may involve trimming, hedging, or setting tighter stops.Flat traders looking for setups – prepare both bullish and bearish scenarios. A continuation pattern would be a strong close on day 1 followed by higher lows into days 2–5. A fading pattern would be a day-one pop that fails to hold.Long-term investors – extended drift does not mean sell, but it is a reminder to check whether position size and horizon match the risk of a volatile earnings cycle.Bottom line: NVDA earnings analysis highlights over-extension and enthusiasm riskNVIDIA stock has already gained more than 30% since its last earnings report, well above its historical post earnings drift average of +15.3%. The current cycle has pushed past the average drift-to-high as well, showing clear signs of investor and trader over-enthusiasm.This does not predict the earnings outcome. It simply frames expectations: the bar is higher, risk is elevated, and the reaction in the next day, next 5 days, and next 2 weeks will tell us how serious market participants interpret the new information.At InvestingLife.com (formerly ForexLive.com), our role is to provide decision support and intelligent market analysis. NVDA’s extended drift is one such angle – a signal to stay cautious and plan your risk before the numbers hit.The options market is expecting a 6.4% earnings move (up or down). Trade and invest into NVDA earnings at your own risk.Visit investingLive.com for additional views. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Forex market interventions may be necessary to ensure price stabilityCurrent Swiss franc value is more down to dollar being weak than stronger francThe bar for taking rates into negative territory is higher than it is for cutting rates when above zeroPast experience shows negative rates have workedHowever, they create more challenges for banks, investors, householdsWe don't see risk of deflationary developmentsInflation dynamics in Switzerland should not be dramatically disrupted by recent dollar movementsWe currently have no reason to increase or reduce gold holdingsBitcoin does not meet our criteria for assetsThese are all more or less token remarks given how they have been operating since almost forever now. The points on negative rates are perhaps the most interesting, although markets are not anticipating any more rate cuts for this year at least. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The 25% punitive tariffs here stacks on top of the previous 25% tariffs on many Indian products, as part of Trump's disdain towards the fact that India moved to purchase Russian oil. This means that goods such as garments, gems, footwear, furniture, and chemicals will be slapped with 50% tariffs.For goods loaded onto a vessel and in transit to the US before the midnight deadline, there will be a three-week exemption period. Otherwise, the above tariffs will be applicable. Besides that, steel and aluminum are also exempt.Talks don't seem to be going well between both sides and this clearly shows that even "close" allies are subject to being pushed around by Trump. Basically, anything goes.Here's a good list by Reuters on what will be impacted the most from India: This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Credit Agricole’s month-end rebalancing model indicates that the dollar should be offered across the board, though the signal is a mild one. The gains in US equities during the August month is cited as the main driver, making for rebalancing flows that will lean back against the dollar slightly.The firm notes that despite the firmer dollar during the month, equity strength adjusted for market cap and FX moves points to mild selling pressure. The strongest sell signal will be against the NOK but other G10 currencies are expected to just face slight dollar selling overall into the month-end fix.From yesterday: Weak dollar selling the signal this month-end - Barclays This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The yen softened while other major FX traded quietly, with USD/JPY nudging above 147.30 and the yuan hitting its strongest since November. Australia’s July CPI surprised on the upside, reducing prospects of a near-term RBA cut. From China, industrial profits fell for a third straight month, underscoring weak demand and persistent margin pressures.China official says will announce more policies in September to broaden service consmptionAI hype deflates on weak returns and bubble talk — Nvidia earnings now the make-or-breakChinese broker raises its margin deposit ratioGoldman Sachs sees Brent falling to low $50s by 2026 as oil surplus swellsChina data - July Industrial profit -1.5% y/y (prior -4.3%)Australian monthly CPI (July 2025) 2.8% y/y (vs. 2.3% expected)Australian data - Q2 2025 Construction Work Done +3.0% q/q (vs. expected +0.8%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1108 (vs. estimate at 7.1559)Australian leading index remains subdued: ‘Slow motion’ recovery continues to underwhelmCanary in the crypto coal mine: Wall Street tests limits with Trump meme coin ETFChina to hold rare DC trade talks; Trump warns of 200% tariffs over rare earth exportsBlackRock buys $315m Ethereum as spot ETFs attract $444m in fresh inflowsJapan's head trade negotiator Akazawa is heading back to the US on ThursdayAustralia’s Woolworths posts A$1.39b profit, down 19% but in line with forecastsICYMI: Morgan Stanley forecasts two 25-basis-point rate 2025 cuts, September then DecemberTrump’s Fed attack and Powell’s rate-cut signals raise risk of deeper US dollar selloffUBS warns captured Fed could unleash inflation chaos, drive up borrow costs, choke growthJP Morgan bullish EUR/USD view, sees 1.20 in Q4 and 1.22 in 1H 2026. But downgrades yen.Oil: private survey of inventory shows a smaller headline crude oil draw than was expectedinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 26 Aug: Trump fires Fed's Cook and looks for control.Trump wants to extend his 'influence' to Federal Reserve BanksMajor US stock indices close higher led by the small-cap Russell 2000Major FX traded in relatively subdued ranges apart from the yen, which weakened as USD/JPY edged up from just below 147.30 to above 147.80. The only news of note was confirmation that Japan’s chief trade negotiator, Akazawa, will return to Washington on Thursday for talks on Japanese investment in the U.S. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan strengthened to its highest level against the dollar since November.Data:Australia’s monthly inflation came in hotter than expected in July, moving closer to the top of the RBA’s 2–3% target band. Headline CPI rose 2.8% y/y, the fastest pace in 12 months, up from 1.9% in June and well above the 2.3% forecast. The stronger print reduces already slim prospects of a September rate cut, with market pricing for easing edging a little lower after the release.From China, industrial profits slipped 1.7% in the January–July period from a year earlier, with July profits down 1.5% y/y after a 4.3% drop in June. It marked a third straight monthly decline as deflationary pressures, weak domestic demand and intense competition weighed on margins. Despite Beijing’s efforts to rein in excess competition, profitability has yet to improve. Asia-Pac stocks:Australia (S&P/ASX 200) +0.15%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +0.1%Shanghai Composite +0.2%Japan (Nikkei 225) +0.3% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China Ministry of Commerce official:In September, China will announce policies to broaden services consumptionComes in the wake of weak data again today:China data - July Industrial profit -1.5% y/y (prior -4.3%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky says the AI trade has hit a pause as sentiment softens on weak headlines ranging from project returns to Altman’s “bubble” warning. While still bullish long-term, he flagged risks of overcapacity and argued the next wave may need fresh innovation, not just bigger compute.-Goldman’s head of Delta One, Rich Privorotsky, said the AI trade has stalled in the near term, with sentiment dented by a series of headlines. These include an MIT paper questioning AI project profitability, Meta’s hiring slowdown, disappointment over ChatGPT-5, Sam Altman’s “bubble” comments, and an Apple paper stressing that large language models do not truly “think.”Privorotsky noted that caution is warranted heading into Nvidia’s results (due Wednesday US time), with meaningful visibility only likely to come in January when major firms outline capital spending plans.Longer term, he remains strongly bullish on the technology, but argued the current “more compute equals better output” mindset is unsophisticated. He suggested the next wave may come from quantum or other breakthroughs, warning that excess capacity could require a reset before innovation drives the next leg higher. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Chinese broker Sinolink Securities has raised its margin deposit ratio for new financing contracts to 100% from 80%the first Chinese broker to tighten requirements during the market rallyThe move reflects concern over the sustainability of the surge, as mutual funds also curb new orders after big gains. Chinese stocks have added over $1 trillion in value in the past month, with the Shanghai Composite at a 10-year high and the CSI 300 up more than 20%, though weak economic data is tempering optimism. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs sees Brent sliding to low $50s by late 2026 on surplus build.Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude prices to decline to the low USD 50s by the end of 2026 as the global oil market tips deeper into surplus. The bank forecasts supply will exceed demand by an average of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 through Q4 2026, swelling global inventories by almost 800 million barrels by the close of that period. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China data, July Industrial profit -1.5% y/y prior -4.3% industrial profits fell for the third consecutive monthYTD (ie first 7 months of 2025) -1.7% y/yprior -1.8% Analysts say the drop reflects: ongoing deflationary pressures (factory-gate prices, the PPI, have fallen for 34 straight months) weighing on consumer spending and corporate profitsfierce competition among producersdomestic demand weakening stillgovernment efforts to curb excess competition have yet to improve marginAs for the external sector, new export orders fell at the fastest rate in three months. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A hot inflation reading from Australia. Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (YoY) (Jul) comes in at +2.8%expected 2.3%, prior 1.9%the m/m is +0.9% (prior 0.2%)goods inflation 2.3% y/y, prior 1.1%The core measure, 'trimmed mean' has come in at 2.7% y/y, a very sharp jump indeedprior 2.1%AUD/USD has popped a little on the data, as high as around 0.6503. ---I posted earlier on this monthly data and how it differs to the official quarterly data:Economic calendar in Asia Wednesday, August 27, 2025 - Australian monthly CPI dataThe Australian Monthly CPI Indicator measures monthly changes in the price of a 'basket' of goods and services. Its not a complete measure of the CPI like the quarterly indicator is.For example, July, as the first month of the June quarter, is skewed toward goods and provides less insight than later months. August, the middle month, captures key services that better reflect domestic inflation, and its CPI data (due 24 September) will come just before the RBA’s 29–30 September meeting. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian data - Q2 2025 Construction Work Done +3.0% q/q expected +0.8%, prior +0%best rise since Q1 2023Encouraging improvement.Most of the focus is on the monthly CPI, a very hot reading:Australian monthly CPI (July 2025) 2.8% y/y (vs. 2.3% expected)***Construction work done includes building work (residential and non - residential) and engineering work. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.The modelled estimate was 7.1559The setting at 7.1108 is the strongest for CNY since November 6 last year.PBOC injected 379.9bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%616bn yuan mature todaynet 236.1bn yuan drain This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UBS said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was “classic Powell” — signalling a higher probability of a September rate cut to offset the drag from trade tariffs, but offering little in the way of a medium-term framework for an economy facing structural upheaval. Markets welcomed the rate-cut hints, but the bank argued the message was essentially a “data-dependent mantra padded with rhetoric.”UBS flagged the absence of a stronger defence of the Fed’s independence, noting that Trump’s threat to fire Governor Lisa Cook underscored political risks to the institution. UBS argue that a Trump politicised Fed could: revive inflation uncertaintypotentially adding a full percentage point to real borrowing costswith knock-on effects for fiscal policy, corporate investment, housing affordability, household savings and speculative activity This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

J.P. Morgan has revised down its near-term outlook for the Japanese yen, citing political uncertainty, expects USD/JPY at 146 in the third quarter, compared with its previous forecast of 141projections are for the pair to ease back to 142 by year-end and 139 by the second quarter of 2026Among G10 currencies, the yen was the only one downgraded. The bank remains constructive on the euro, keeping forecasts unchanged at 1.20 for EUR/USD in Q4 and 1.22 in the first half of 2026, with a potential catalyst seen in softer U.S. data or a Federal Reserve pivot.Strategists continue to recommend being short the U.S. dollar against the euro, commodity currencies and the yen as a defensive hedge, while staying overweight Scandinavian FX versus the euro on valuation grounds. They remain bearish on sterling given fiscal and growth concernsfavours emerging-market currencies, with its strongest conviction in EMEA This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter:--Expectations I had seen centred on:Headline crude -1.9 mn barrelsDistillates +0.9 mn bblsGasoline -2.2 mn---This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).It's a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agenciesWhereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week's levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Major US stock indices close higher led by the small-cap Russell 2000Trump: He is talking about economic sanctions on Russia if there is no cease-fireFed Spokesperson: Federal Reserve Act gives the president the power to remove "for cause"US crude oil futures settle at $63.25Trump on Fed Cook: We are prepared for a legal fightBOC Macklem:The bank won't revisit its 2% inflation target for monetary policy frameworkFeds Barkin: His forecast is for a modest cut in interest ratesThe US treasury auctions off $69B of 2-year notes at 3.641%Trump cabinet meeting: Expects oil prices to break $60 soonEuropean indices close lower on the day. US stocks little changed.FT. US has made security guarantees including air defense shield, intelligenceUkrainian President Zelenskyy: Work on security guarantees should be acceleratedAtlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for Q3 growth dips to 2.2% from 2.3% lastBOE Mann: Research is showing increased persistence in inflation, but weak growth outlookUS consumer confidence for August 97.4 versus 96.2 estimate.Richmond Fed composite index for August -7 vs -11 estimateFed's Barkin: Warns US workerforce growth is basically zero without immigrationCase Schiller down -0.3% MoM for June vs -0.2% estimateFormer Fed Governor Brainard: Trump moves risk higher inflation, long-term ratesUS durable goods for July -2.8% versus -4.0% estimateCommerce Sec. Lutnick: Trump administration is not about giving away moneyThe USD is lower to start the new trading day as the ups and downs continue.investingLive European FX news wrap: Lack of catalysts keeps markets rangeboundThe U.S. day began with the release of July durable goods orders, which fell -2.8%, a smaller decline than the -4.0% expected, with transportation once again the main drag. Stripping out transportation, orders rose +1.1% versus the 0.2% forecast, with the prior month revised up to 0.3%. Looking through another lens, excluding defense, orders dropped -2.5%, still better than the -3.6% expected, though the prior month’s decline was revised deeper to -9.5%.The standout detail came from nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business investment, which climbed +1.1% against expectations of only +0.2%, with June revised higher to -0.6%. This gauge, which filters out large, volatile aircraft orders and defense-driven spending, provides a clearer read on private-sector investment sentiment. The gain suggests some resilience in business confidence despite recent volatility, with the series alternating between gains and losses over the past four months.Overall, while headline durable goods remain soft—declining in three of the last four months—the underlying picture for core business investment is firmer, pointing to a steadier footing beneath the headline weakness.Later, U.S. consumer confidence in August came in at 97.4, slightly above the 96.2 estimate and essentially flat compared to July’s upwardly revised 98.7. The current situation showed mixed signals: 22.0% of respondents said business conditions were “good” (up from 20.5%), while 14.2% viewed them as “bad” (up from 13.6%). In the labor market, 29.7% said jobs were “plentiful” (down from 29.9%), while 20.0% said jobs were “hard to get” (up from 18.9%). Looking ahead, expectations were subdued: 19.5% expected business conditions to improve, while 21.9% expected them to worsen. On jobs, 17.9% anticipated more positions ahead (slightly lower), while 26.8% expected fewer jobs (up from July). Income expectations were also softer, with 18.3% expecting gains (down from 18.7%) and 12.6% seeing declines (up from 11.8%). Overall, the data point to a modest improvement in headline confidence but a cautious outlook on jobs and incomes, suggesting consumers remain wary despite stable headline sentiment.Fed’s Barkin said he expects only a modest interest rate cut, framing his outlook around expectations for little change in economic activity through year-end. His restrained tone highlights the Fed’s ongoing challenge of projecting policy amid heightened uncertainty and shifting market dynamics.In the bond market, the U.S. yield curve steepened. The 2-year yield fell -4.5 bps, while the 10-year declined a smaller -1.6 bps, and the 30-year rose +2.2 bps. That left the 2s–30s spread at 122 bps, the widest since January 2022, underscoring market concerns that the Fed could cut rates even as longer-term inflation risks remain. Fed funds futures continue to price in about an 84% probability of a 25-bp cut at the next meeting.On the Fed, Trump said that he is ready for a legal fight with regard to the firing of Lisa Cook, but did say, that he would abide by any court decision. He mentioned that he had a candidate in mind, and late in the day, the Wall Street Journal citing sources said that Trump is considering quickly announcing a nominee to replace Gov. Cook. That nominee would be former World Bank Pres. Malpass. He also talked about extending Miran's term (even now he has not been confirmed as a governor just yet).Of more significance as Trump looks to make the Federal Reserve "His House", Bloomberg citing sources said the Trump administration is reviewing options for exerting more influence over the Federal Reserve's 12 regional banks that would potentially extend its reach beyond personneal appointments in Washington. In other words, Trump wants the power to appoint the regional presidents as well and not just the Governors. If the Fed has to independent, fill the seats with Trump appointed members. US stocks closed higher with the :Dow rising 135.60 points or 0.30% at 45418.7S&P rose 26.62 points or 0.41% at 6465.94Nasdaq _94.98 points or 0.44% at 21544.27Russell 2000 rose 19.42 points or 0.83% at 2358.59 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

A couple of items crossing news services:Trump is weighing options to extend influence to Fed banks - Bloomberg with this(ie. Trump reviewing options for exerting more influence over the Federal Reserve’s 12 regional banks)Trump has told advisers that he wants to move quickly to announce a nominee to replace Lisa Cook on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors -Wall Street Journal with thisTrump is considering Stephen Miran and David Malpass as a replacement for Lisa Cook on the Federal Reserve Board (via WSJ also)ICYMI, the context for all this is Trump's attempts to fir Federal Reserve Governor Cook:investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump moves to fire Cook, gold jumpsCook is giving Trump the middle finger:Fed's Cook says will not resign and Trump has no authority to fire herFed Spokesperson: Federal Reserve Act gives the president the power to remove "for cause" This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The major U.S. stock indices finished the day higher, led by the Russell 2000, which stood out as the strongest performer. Small-cap stocks gained 19.42 points (+0.83%), nearly double the advance of the NASDAQ, which rose 94.90 points (+0.44%). The S&P 500 also moved higher, closing up 0.41%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged slightly with a 0.30% gain.Looking at the components of the S&P, the industrials were the biggest gainers with a gain of 1.04% followed by financials with a gain of 0.76%. Consumer Staples and real estate services were the weakest with declines of -0.46% and -0.33% respectively.Industrials (S5INDU) +1.04%Financials (SPF) +0.76%Health Care (S5HLTH) +0.55%Financials (S5INFT) +0.53%Energy (S5COND) +0.42%Materials (S5MATR) +0.41%Utilities (S5UTIL) +0.22%SPN -0.21%Telecom (S5TELS) -0.27%Real Estate Services (S5REAS) -0.33%Consumer Staples (S5CONS) -0.46% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.