This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “EUR/USD Technical: Poised for a minor bullish breakout in euro strength”, published on 6 August 2025. Since our last publication, the EUR/USD has indeed shaped the expected minor bullish breakout above the highlighted 1.1520 short-term pivotal support and hit the 1.1680/1.1705 short-term resistance. It rallied by 1.6% to print an intraday high of 1.1730 on 13 August 2025.Let’s now examine its latest technical elements to determine its next potential trajectory and key levels. Fig. 1: EUR/USD minor trend as of 1 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) After shaping a minor corrective range configuration from 13 August 2025 high of 1.1730 to 27 August 2025 low of 1.1574, the EUR/USD is likely to kickstart a potential fresh medium-term bullish impulsive up move sequence.Bullish bias above 1.1650 key short-term pivotal support. A clearance above 1.1730 intermediate resistance reinforces the bullish tone for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 1.1770/1790 and 1.1830 (also a Fibonacci extension) in the first step.Key elements Price actions of the EUR/USD have started to trade back above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages since last Thursday, 28 August 2025.The EUR/USD has oscillated within a minor ascending channel in place since the 1 August 2025 low of 1.1392.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to oscillate above a parallel ascending trendline above the 50 level, which short-term bullish momentum is likely intact.The yield spread between the 2-year German Bund and the US Treasury note broke higher on Thursday, 28 August, narrowing the differential to –1.68% from –1.82% on 22 August. This development indicates a relative decline in the yield attractiveness of the 2-year US Treasury versus its German counterpart, which in turn exerts downside pressure on the US dollar against the euro.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below 1.1650 support negates the bullish tone on the EUR/USD to see another round of minor corrective decline for a retest on the next intermediate support at 1.1590/1.1570 (also the 27 August 2025 swing low area). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices have continued to advance this week on a combination of a weak US Dollar and renewed haven demand, setting the stage for a potential retest of all-time-highs at $3500/oz next week.The return of haven demand may be attributed to the ongoing Russia/Ukraine discussions, Fed independence concerns (which are also having an effect on the Dollar) and a potential surge in tension between Iran, the US and the E3 (Germany, France and England).Rising Geopolitical Risks Just as it seemed market participants may be getting a prolonged reprieve from a heightened geopolitical risk environment which has continued throughout 2025, it appears these hopes are faltering.The Russia-Ukraine discussions are from being concluded with a potential meeting between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky facing significant challenges.On Friday, Russia stated that Western plans to give Ukraine security guarantees would increase the chance of a conflict between Russia and the West. Russia believes these guarantees would turn Ukraine into a "strategic provocateur" right on its border.Ukraine's European allies are trying to create a set of promises to protect Kyiv from a future Russian attack. These guarantees could be part of a future peace agreement.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that he expects the details of these security guarantees to be ready as soon as next week.A spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, said that any security guarantees must also consider Russia's security interests.These comments will do little to quell the concerns that a deal is from being reached at this stage.Geopolitical risk is also facing another concern as tensions between Iran and Western countries have returned to the fore.France, Britain, and Germany have started the process to bring back all of the United Nations' sanctions on Iran. They are doing this because they say Iran has deliberately broken the rules of the 2015 nuclear deal, which had previously lifted these sanctions.The U.N. sanctions that were in place before the deal included a ban on conventional weapons, limits on developing ballistic missiles, and a freeze on assets and travel bans for certain individuals.The three European countries, also known as the E3, had offered Iran a chance to delay these new sanctions. The offer was made during talks in July and depended on Iran meeting three conditions: restarting talks with the United States about its nuclear program, letting U.N. inspectors into its nuclear sites, and explaining what happened to the more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium that the U.N. says it has.Iran could leave the NPT as a result with growing calls in Iran for the leadership to halt negotiations they see as one-sided.This could have further implications down the line and raise the risk of another war moving forward.Fed Independence and the US Dollar President Trump's decision to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook is seen as a move to make the Federal Reserve more political, which would normally weaken the dollar. However, the dollar's value hasn't changed much, likely for two reasons.First, Cook is fighting the firing, and it will probably be decided in court. Second, her leaving won't have a big effect on the Fed's decisions in the near future because Chairman Powell is still in charge. As long as Powell is there, the market expects the Fed's policy to be based on economic data, and there aren't enough members who want to lower interest rates faster or more aggressively to change that.The US Dollar has not changed much since the announcement but chatter continues to grow. The US Dollar remains close to YTD lows and has fallen significantly since August 1 with the US Dollar index on course to finish the month down around 2%.This coupled with rate cut expectations at the Feds September meeting hovering around the 88% mark post the PCE release today has helped Gold prices advance. Source: LSEG The question moving into next week is whether Gold will finally retest the all-time high around the $3500/oz mark?Looking Ahead Markets are entering the labor day long weekend with US markets closed on Monday. However, the rest of the week is shaping up to be a busy one.ISM services and NFP jobs data will be the key drivers next week for the US dollar. Further weakness in the labor market and continued US Dollar weakness could set the stage for fresh all-time highs for Gold prices and are definitely worth watching heading into next week. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, a weekly candle close for gold above the $3400 may be crucial, as it would be the first time this happens since early June.On that occasion though the following week saw Gold prices decline by about 1.8% the following week and failed to test or breach the $3500/oz handle.Could history repeat itself? Quite possible although on this occasion i see a lot of the macroeconomic themes supporting further upside for the precious metal. Time will tell.Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Chart, August 29, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Dropping down to a four-hour chart, and a candle close above the immediate resistance at 3431.66 may be key if momentum is to continue.A pullback may find support at yesterday's swing high around the 3418 handle before the 3400 mark comes back into focus.Beyond the 3431 handle, resistance may be found at 3450 and 3475 respectively before the $3500 handle comes back into focus.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, August 29, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets just received the report for the much-anticipated Core PCE, which came exactly as expected – The month-over-month Core release came at 0.3 % vs 0.3% expectations.All data components are once again exactly as expected, Core PCE is calculated from already released data, so not surprising to get accurate expectations.This brings the y/y total to 2.6% for the headline and 2.9% for the Core.Canada released their own GDP data which came at -0.1%, a miss on the already weak 0.1% m/m expectations.Annualized, the Canadian GDP is at -1.6%!Canada is still awaiting for a proper relaunch of their slowing economy, and the Loonie that was strenghtening these past few days is giving up some of this strength. Canadian PM Carney and US President Trump are however getting back to better ground.Let's see how it plays out for the two North-American neighbors.Spot live reactions to the Dollar Index and USDCAD just below Read More: EURUSD rangebound in the waiting for further news – breakout levelsDollar Index 30m Chart – Rising but the report didn't change much Dollar Index 30m Chart, August 29, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dollar is rising slowly but will be stepping against the 30m 200-MA around 98.17, still evolving in a range within the 98.00 handle.USDCAD 30m Chart USDCAD 30m Chart, August 29, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Loonie is losing some steam after the data. The pair is still evolving in a downward channel.You can access our latest analysis of the pair right here. Safe trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The most traded FX pair wasn't exempt of a huge decrease in trading volumes in this final week of August.Without much change to fundamentals, traders have been looking for volatility in the impatient waiting of next Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report.However, yesterday, Markets received the news of the Zelenskyy-Putin meeting not moving forward (It could have been expected with no advances since the past two weeks).The implications for the Euro are still to be clarified, but what is sure is that as long as this conflict keeps going, EU nations are going to keep spending on defense.The fundamental background could be negative for the Euro, but national spending of that sort tends to generate economic activity and hence can be seen as a positive for the Joint currency – However, the news are already priced in and have helped the Euro already in 2025.Also, rangebound action is not worst for trading, albeit can be a bit dull; It provides boundaries for entry points.You can access this article that explains how to exploit a range effectively.One thing to consider, is that ranges will break on renewed fundamentals, like economic data (Core PCE is expected to get released promptly) – therefore one other advantage is that they also provide breakout levels Read More:Markets Today: German Unemployment at 10 Year Highs, FTSE Slides on Head & Shoulders Breakout. US PCE Up NextUSD/JPY Technical: Eyeing the ascending range support of 145.50EURUSD technical analysis – determining the range and breakout pointsEURUSD Daily Chart EURUSD Daily Chart, August 29, 2025 – Source: TradingView It's now been 17 sessions that EURUSD hasn't been able to find any direction.Despite a few break attempts and data points, the pair has been held between a 1.16 to 1.17 rangeSome range extremes (1.1570 lows on Wednesday 27 – 1.16420 highs last Friday) did go further than that, but most of the volume is contained within these two psychological levels.Momentum is dead within the neutral zone (Mid-line of the RSI) and the 50-Day MA corroborates, flat as it can be.Let's have a closer look to see where are the range extremes.EURUSD 4H Chart EURUSD 4H Chart The most recent extreme hit was the resistance of the range and some (slow) selling is currently ongoing.Watch for a higher breakout possibility after the Core PCE data, however for now the extremes are located at 1.1570 to 1.16 range support and the range resistance 1.17 to 1.1740.Any daily close above or below these levels would imply a breakout towards other key and support levels which are:Key levels of interest for EURUSD:EUR/USD Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance Levels1.17430 August 22nd highs2020 Resistance around 1.18 (+/- 100 pips)1.1830 2025 topSupport LevelsRange lows 1.1570 to 1.161.1450 to 1.15 Main support Level1.1350 to 1.14 Support 2Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The euro is slightly lower on Friday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1657, down 0.21% on the day.German CPI accelerates to 2.1% Germany has released the preliminary inflation report for July, with a hotter-than expected reading.Annually, EU-harmonised CPI rose to 2.1%, up from 1.8% in June and above the market estimate of 2.0%. The figure was the highest level since March, driven by higher food prices. Monthly, inflation eased to 0.1%, below the June reading of 0.4% and just above the market estimate of 0%.Headline inflation in Germany, the eurozone's biggest economy, is largely in check but the battle against inflation is not over. Services inflation remained at 3.1% and core CPI was unchanged at 2.7%.Policymakers at the European Central Bank won't be losing sleep over the slight gain in inflation. The eurozone releases July inflation next week, with CPI expected to nudge higher to 2.1% from 2.0% and core CPI to 2.4% from 2.3%. The ECB meets next on September 11 and is expected to maintain its key deposit rate at 2.0%.US Core PCE rises to 2.9%The US wrapped up the week with the Core PCE index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for underlying inflation. In July, core PCE rose by 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June and in line with the consensus. It was the highest level in five months and a reminder that although inflation is largely under control, the fight is not over. Monthly, core PCE was unchanged at 0.3%.Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who is a candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair next year, gave a hawkish speech on Thursday. Waller said he supported a rate cut in September and hinted at support for larger cuts if the labor market continued to soften.EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD has pushed below support at 1.1678 and is testing 1.1664. Below, there is support at 1.16461.1696 and 1.1710 are the next resistance lines EURUSD 4-Hour Chart, August 29, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian dollar has posted three consecutive winning days against the US dollar. Earlier, the Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.3738, its highest level since August 8. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3748, up 0.05% on the day.Canada's GDP projected to show marginal expansionCanada releases GDP for June later today, with a market estimate of 0.1%. This follows two straight readings of -0.1%, and if the estimate for June is confirmed, it would point to a weak second quarter with no growth.The US tariffs have taken a toll on Canada's economy, although many analysts expected that the US-Canada trade war would be far more damaging to the Canadian economy. Some 20% of Canada's economy is made of exports to the US and a prolonged disruption in trade between the two countries could send Canada into a recession. There is a tariff exemption for Canadian exports that are covered by the US-Canada-Mexico agreement but that deal is up for renegotiation in 2026, and President Trump will be a tough negotiating partner.Bank of Canada Governor Macklem has said that the economy has held up with "some reliance" despite US tariffs. At the same time, he warned that the economy would be "on a permanently lower path" due to the tariffs.US core PCE expected to remain at 0.3%The US wraps up the week with the core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred indicator for undelying inflation. The market estimate for July stands at 0.3%, unchanged from June, which was the highest level in four months. Annualized, core PCE is expected to nudge up to 2.9% from 2.8%.USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3754. Above, there is resistance at 1.3768There is support at 1.3746 and 1.3732 USDCAD 4-Hour Chart, Aug. 29, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - China Stocks Continue to Rally, Goldman Increases CSI300 forecast to 4900 Most Read: Sterling Outlook Softens amid Sticky Inflation, Slowing Growth and Fiscal StrainsAsian stocks went up a little on Friday, following a good day for tech companies on Wall Street. Markets in Asia also had a good day, with the main Asia-Pacific stock index (excluding Japan) going up by 0.26%. In China, the tech-focused STAR 50 Index dropped by 3% after a big jump of more than 7% the day before.Shares of the Chinese chip company Cambricon Technologies fell by more than 7% because the company had warned investors on Thursday that its stock price had risen too quickly since late July. Despite this, China's CSI300 index for top companies went up by 0.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.8%. However, Japan's Nikkei index went down by 0.33%. China's stock market is expected to have a record amount of trading this month, which shows how strong the current stock market surge is. This "bull run" is attracting many new investors every day. Even with concerns about the economy from US tariffs and a major property issue, and despite banks and regulators suggesting they might try to slow things down, there is a lot of excitement in the Chinese market.In light of this positive trend, experts at Goldman Sachs raised their prediction for where the CSI 300 Index will be in 12 months, changing their forecast from 4,500 to 4,900.European Open - Inflation Data in Focus European stocks dropped slightly on Friday as investors waited for new economic information from Europe and a major US inflation report. These reports could give hints about when interest rates might be lowered in both regions.The STOXX 600 index was down 0.2% and was on track for its first weekly loss in a month. This week, worries about a possible collapse of the French government and questions about the independence of the US Federal Reserve have put pressure on the stock market.Recent data showed that consumer prices in France went up a bit less than expected in August. Later today, investors will be focused on new figures from Germany and the U.S. personal consumption expenditures report. In other news, shares of the French spirits company,Remy Cointreau, went up by 1% after the company said a new trade agreement between the US and the EU would reduce the negative effect of US tariffs on its products.On the data front, Inflation in France, Spain, and Italy came in slightly below forecasts, at 0.8%, 2.7%, and 1.7% respectively.On the FX front, the euro's value stayed the same at $1.1677, while the British pound dropped slightly to $1.3474. Despite these small changes today, both currencies are set to have a good month, gaining more than 2% against the dollar. The dollar's value against the Japanese yen remained stable at 146.975 yen.Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar became a little stronger after the chairman of New Zealand's central bank, Neil Quigley, resigned. His resignation was due to controversy over how the central bank's governor had suddenly quit earlier in the year.Meanwhile, China's currency, the yuan, reached its highest value against the dollar in 10 months. This is happening because China's central bank has kept its currency fixings stable and because of a booming stock market in China.On the other hand, the Indian rupee fell to its lowest value ever, due to concerns about how new, high tariffs from the U.S. will affect India's economy.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped on Friday, but they are still on track to end the week higher. The market is being pulled in two different directions: there's uncertainty about how much oil Russia will supply, but there are also expectations of lower demand as the summer driving season in the U.S., which uses the most fuel, is ending soon.For the day, the price of Brent crude oil for October delivery went down by 36 cents to $68.26, and the more popular November contract slid 29 cents to $67.69. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil also fell by 28 cents to $64.32.Even with today's drop, Brent crude is expected to finish the week with a 0.8% gain, and WTI is set to rise by 1%.Gold prices went down a little bit on Friday, but they're still on track to increase for the month. This is happening as people wait for new U.S. inflation data, which will give more hints about when the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates.The price of gold was down 0.1% at $3,414.07 per ounce. In August, gold went up by 3.6% and reached $3,423.16 on Thursday, which was its highest price since July 23rd.German Unemployment at Highest Level in 10 Years For the first time since 2015, the number of unemployed people in Germany has gone above three million, showing how a long period of economic struggles is finally hurting the job market. This three-million figure is seen as a key point that separates a strong job market from a weak one.The new data shows that the number of unemployed people in Germany increased by 45,700, bringing the total to 3.025 million. Although the number of unemployed people adjusted for seasonal changes actually went down slightly, the overall increase is part of a longer trend. Since hitting a low in May 2022, unemployment has been steadily rising because the economy has been struggling for over five years. This is a classic example of how a weak economy eventually leads to a weaker job market.Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session has been busy with a bevy of inflation data. We still wait on German inflation data which will be released a bit later in the day.The US session is key today as markets brace for the Feds preferred inflation gauge, the US PCE data release. I do anticipate a 0.3% increase for the month, which is what most experts are predicting. If the increase is slightly higher, it could cause the dollar to go up a little, but it's unlikely to change the strong expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. This is because of the recent reassuring comments made by Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole.For now, the dollar's value (measured by the DXY index) will likely stay around its 50-day average of 98.0, even though there's still a chance it could drop further. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has finally broken below the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern which has been developing this week.The index has fallen about 50 points already since the neckline break and is trading below the 100-day MA. A brief bounce has taken place but the possibility of another 50-60 point drop toward the 200-day MA could materialize.Support is immediately provided by the 9180 handle before the 200-day MA at 9136 becomes the area of focus.FTSE Four-Hour Chart, August 29. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USD/JPY has extended its gradual decline from the 28 July 2025 high of 150.92, losing -2.6% to reach an intraday low of 147.00 at the time of writing.Today’s Tokyo inflation data and August consumer confidence figures reinforce expectations of a potential 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October, as it continues along its path of monetary policy normalization.Tokyo inflation and Japan consumer confidence support another BoJ rate hike Fig. 1: Tokyo core-core inflation & Japan Consumer Confidence as of Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Tokyo core-core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose by 3% y/y in August, a slight slowdown from July’s print of 3.1% but still well above BoJ’s long-term inflation target of 2% (see Fig. 1).Japan’s consumer confidence index improved further to 34.9 in August from its current year-to-month low of 31.2 printed in April. This marked the highest reading since January seen across all the components; overall livelihood (32.7 vs 31.4 in July), income growth expectations (39.4 vs 38.5), employment outlook (39.3 vs 37.6), and willingness to purchase durable goods (28 vs 27.4). Fig. 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of 29 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bearish bias below 148.00/148.18 key short-term pivotal resistance.A break below 146.40 intermediate support (minor swing low area of 14 August 2025) opens the scope for a further potential slide towards the next supports at 145.85 (minor swing lows of 8 July/10 July/24 July 2025) and 145.50 (the lower boundary of the ascending range configuration) (see Fig. 2).Key elements Price actions of the USD/JPY have traded back below its 20-day moving average, and it is now challenging the 50-day moving average.The USD/JPY is still oscillating within a medium-term ascending range configuration since the 22 April 2025 low of 139.90.The hourly Stochastic oscillator is now attempting to shape a bearish breakdown from its parallel ascending support, which suggests a potential resurgence of bearish momentum conditions at least in the short term.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) The key near-term risk event is the upcoming release of July’s US core PCE inflation, along with personal income and spending data later today, which will play a pivotal role in shaping Federal Reserve rate cut expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting.A clearance above 148.18 invalidates the bearish scenario and sees a squeeze up towards the upper limit of the medium-term ascending range configuration for the next intermediate resistance to come in at 148.75 (also close to the 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Indices are rising but in an unassertive fashion, and the same has happened throughout the whole week.The dovish interpretation from last Friday's Powell speech definitely helped to sustain bullish momentum, with the S&P 500 timidly breaking new highs in yesterday's session and the Dow Jones breaking through its previous record (Current all-time highs at 45,757).However, it seems that Markets are awaiting for the most influential piece of data, releasing on the 5th of September – The infamous Non-Farm Payrolls report.This week's undecisive trading is typical of a last week of August due to many participants being off their screens and not much key data to keep the key players from doing so.Yesterday post-close Nvidia release sent mixed signs, but it seems that technicals still corroborate potential upside – you can check our latest analysis on the stock right here.NVDA is still down around 0.90% on the session, with what seems to be profit-taking flows – Some dip-buying is currently ongoingSome key technical patterns are still coming into play, which should influence trading ahead of tomorrow's Core PCE release. Read More: USDCAD falls despite a US GDP data beat – Technical OutlookA broad look on US Equities US Equities Heatmap, August 28, 2025 – Source: Finviz US Indices technical analysis – Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 4H chartsDow Jones- Double top coming in play? Dow Jones 4H Chart, August 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView Our previous analysis of US Indices had mentioned a break-retest technical pattern which tends to bring continued upside and more sustainability to trends.However, the landmark Dow is down about 0.20% in today's session after marking an intermediate double top.Inflows are going towards other sectors, but the picture is very mixed, leaving the most-logical reason behind the selling being normal profit-taking – The price action is still holding an upward channel, with the previous selling happening at its upper bound.Indeed, a lack of activity may prevent pushing for further highs, particularly ahead of next week's NFP release – Watch for reactions at the 4H 50-period MA at 45,170Levels of interest for Dow Jones Trading:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 45,757ATH Resistance Zone 45,700 (+/- 150 pts)1.618 Fibonacci-Extension for potential ATH resistance 46,260Support LevelsPrevious ATH resistance zone, now pivot 45,000 (+/- 150 points)4H 50-period MA 45,17544,400 to 44,500 Main SupportS&P 500 – new all-time highs, but lacking conviction S&P 500 4H Chart, August 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView New all-time highs just got reached for the S&P 500, with the record standing at 6,496 (CFD, actual index ATH at 6,495)However, the past week of price action is full of wicks, pointing to some lack of conviction around the highs.Nonetheless, the Index is holding very close to its highs, therefore price action is still far from bearish.The S&P 500 is still out of its higher timeframe upward channel, but bears are still inactive for now, leaving the current trend into play.Price action may stay undecisive until next week!Levels of interest for S&P 500 Trading:Resistance Levelssession highs 6,496 All-time highsAll-time high resistance zone 6,470 to 6,5006,520 to 6,530 Potential ATH resistance (from Fibonacci extension)Support LevelsEnd-July Top now Pivot 6,420 to 6,4306,400 psychological Supportpre-Powell mini support 6,3506,210 to 6,235 Main Support (NFP Lows)Nasdaq – bringing back some bullish flows Nasdaq 4H Chart, August 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView After unconvincing price action throughout the whole week, Nvidia earnings seem to have brough some buying flows to the Tech-focused index. Look at reactions as the current buying is stepping into the pre-NFP highs resistance zone, levels just below.Levels to watch for Nasdaq trading:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time Highs 23,98623,500 Support turned resistance23,732 NFP highs acting as immediate resistanceSupport LevelsWeekly lows 23,30023,000 Key Support22,700 support at NFP lowsEarly 2025 ATH at 22,229Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The euro has posted gains on Thursday. In the North America session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1670, up 0.27% on the day.US GDP revised upwardsUS GDP (second-estimate) surprised on the upside, with a gain of 3.3%. This was revised higher from 3.0% in the preliminary estimate and was an impressive turnaround from the 0.5% decline in the first quarter.After the release of the first-estimate GDP, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates, and it wouldn't be surprising if Trump again uses the strong GDP report to attack Powell. The US labor market has been softening and the July nonfarm payrolls fell to just 73 thousand. Still, unemployment claims have been steady and today's release showed that claims dropped to 229 thousand, down from a revised 234 thousand last week and just below the market estimate of 230 thousand.German CPI expected to flatlineGermany releases CPI report on Friday, with a market estimate of 0% m/m for August. This would mark the second flat reading in three months, an indication that inflation is under control. Annually, CPI is expected to nudge up to 2.1% from 2.0%.Eurozone inflation will be released next week. Headline CPI is currently at 2.0% and core CPI is at 2.3%, with little change expected in the August release.The European Central Bank took a pause in July after seven straight rate cuts. The ECB meets on September 11 and with inflation largely contained and around the ECB's 2% target, the Bank is not feeling pressure to continue lowering rates.EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD has pushed above resistance above 1.1646 and is testing resistance at 1.1667. Above, there is resistance at 1.1690There is support at 1.1623 and 1.1602 EURUSD 4-Hour Chart, August 28, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

GDP data for Q2 just got released – A 3.3% annualized beat vs a 3.1 expectations could have been expected to lead to a USD rally, but the reverse happened instead.The Greenback is currently the second worst performer of all majors, just ahead of the CHF.You can access our latest piece on the data release right here to know more on the details on the report.Tomorrow will also await the GDP data release for Canada which should add to some volatility in the pair.USDCAD is now back into its July range which spanned between 1.3550 to 1.38 – Further correction would be needed to fully confirm the re-entry – Discover which ones in our technical analysis just below.In terms of tariffs, the "duty-free shipping" de minimis exemption of Canadian goods to the US expires on Friday which is creating fears of higher costs for Canadians and Americans.Tariff talks were in a bit of a limbo but with the deadline approaching, Canada PM Mark Carney decided to drop many retaliatory tariffs against the US in an attempt to reduce the uncertainty towards animous relations between the two neighbors. Read More:Markets Today: Markets Digest NVIDIA Earnings, FTSE Eyes Head and Shoulder Breakout. Euro Area Consumer Confidence and US GDP Data AheadNasdaq 100 Technical: Bullish trend intact despite Nvidia -3% (after-hours) sell-offUSDCAD multi-timeframe technical analysisUSDCAD Daily Chart USDCAD Daily Chart, August 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView The pair had been holding just above the 1.38 handle (1.38130) for a few moments but ironically, right after the release of our mid-week NA Markets recap mentioning the support level, US Dollar selling flows broke support.In the meantime, the today's selling is entering the 1.3750 Pivot Zone (+/- 150 pips) and some small mean-reversion is happening right ahead of the 50-Day MA (1.3735).Daily momentum is also breaching the neutral RSI level towards the bearish side, adding to the odds of a full range re-entry of the pair, after prolonged CAD weakness.We will see if tomorrow's Canada GDP data corroborates with the current technicals.USDCAD 4H Chart USDCAD 4H Chart, August 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView After previously holding around the 1.38130 level held buy USDCAD bulls, theirBuyers are stepping in after strong selling flows at the pivot zone, therefore the 1.38 resistance zone should come into play soon.The resistance zone may also act in confluence with the middle of the current downward channel – bearish reactions here will be key to re-enter the range. Failure to do so should lead to a retest of the 1.3850 Main resistance zone.Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.38 immediate resistance Zone (+/- 150 pips)1.3850 Main resistance1.3925 Aug 22 highs last Friday highsMay Highs 1.40185Support Levels:4H MA 200 and 50-Day MA between 1.3730 and 1.3760Key longer-term pivot Zone 1.3750Main Support Zone 1.3675 to 1.3686USDCAD 1H Chart USDCAD 1H Chart, August 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView The immediate action is fairly balanced, with the 1H RSI rebounding from oversold – However, the current 1H candle is seeing immediate rejection as markets are approaching the low of the immediate resistance zone.A continuation of the downmove should take the pair towards the lows of the pivot zone between 1.37 to 1.3725.Price action may consolidate a bit before further movement due to low RSI levels – Keep those in check.For immediate breakout levels, look at the High of current 1H Candle 1.3785 for continued upside, while for a breakdown, look at the Daily lows at 1.3753.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: EUR/USD Reclaims 1.1600 as DXY Retreats, Key Economic Data AheadReal gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent (0.8 percent at a quarterly rate) in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis The economy grew in the second quarter, mainly because the country imported fewer goods and services, and people spent more money. However, this growth was limited by businesses investing less and the country exporting less.The initial estimate of economic growth was later corrected to be a bit higher. This correction happened because it was found that businesses invested more and people spent more than first thought, but this was partly canceled out by the government spending less and the country importing more than initially estimated.Compared to the first quarter, the second quarter's growth was a result of a sharp drop in imports and faster consumer spending, which were partly countered by a decrease in investment.A key measure of private-sector activity, which adds up what consumers and businesses spent, grew by 1.9 percent, which was a significant upward correction from the earlier number. Prices for goods and services bought in the country went up by 1.8 percent, which was a slightly smaller increase than first thought.The prices that consumers paid went up by 2.0 percent, also a bit less than first estimated. When you remove volatile food and energy costs, consumer prices went up by 2.5 percent, which was the same as the first estimate. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Market Reaction - US Dollar The US Dollar Index seemed largely unfazed by the data release as it continued its decline once the data was released.The index is now within touching distance of the recent swing low which is a key area of support resting at 97.70.A break and candle close below this support level could open up the door for a retest of the Year-to-date lows around 96.37 and may be worth monitoring.Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis Gold prices continued their rise today as the precious metal peaked back above the $3400/oz level.The previous bullish pennant breakout played out to perfection.The question now will be whether the precious metal can gain acceptance above the $3400/oz before making a run toward the all-time highs.If it does there is a key level in and around the $3430-$3440 with a candle close above this handle seen as clearing a path for a retest of the ATH at $3500/oz.There is a golden cross pattern developing on the four-hour as the 50-day MA eyes across above the 100-day MA. While this is a lagging signal it still shows that momentum may currently be favoring a bullish move.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, August 27, 2025 Source:TradingView.com Client Sentiment Data - Gold Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on XAU/USD with 51% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment, however the reading of 51% net-long shows the indecision and concern by market participants that Gold can hold above the $3400/oz handle. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Japanese yen has edged higher on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.99, down 0.27% on the day.Tokyo core CPI expected to fall to 2.5%Tokyo core CPI, a key gauge of underlying inflation, is expected to continue to decline. The indicator eased to 2.9% in July and the market estimate for August stands at 2.5%, which would mark a five-month low.The Tokyo inflation report comes on the heels of Japan's core CPI release, which declined to 3.1% in July from 3.3% a month earlier. Despite the slowdown, inflation remains well above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. The BoJ has stressed that it is on a path of normalization of monetary policy and plans to raise interest rates. However, the BoJ hasn't hiked rates since January and doesn't appear to be in any rush.One could make the argument that the central bank has been too slow to tighten policy, as headline inflation has been above the 2% target for over three years. Governor Ueda has repeatedly said that the Bank needs to see higher domestic demand and higher wage growth in order to be assured that inflation remains sustainable at around 2%. The BoJ meets next on September 19.US GDP expected to be revised upwardsThe US releases second-estimate (Preliminary) GDP later today. The first estimate indicated a strong gain of 3.0% in Q2, rebounding from -0.5% in the first quarter. The impressive bounce-back was driven by a sharp drop in imports and stronger consumer spending. The second estimate is expected to show an upward revision of 3.1%.USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY has pushed below support at 147.20 and 146.99. Below, there is support at 146.80The next resistance lines are 147.39 and 147.60 USDJPY 4-Hour Chart, Aug. 28, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview where we look at the NA Indices and currencies.This week has been a typical end-August trading week, with mostly rangebound markets and volumes subdued – As pointed in our previous day Market Wrap, the most influential participants tend to take the final weeks of August to take their breaks off Markets.Hence, the price action has been held in tight ranges for FX Markets. Equity Markets have seen some profit-taking since Friday's post-Powell rallies, with the S&P holding close to its previous highs (is the most recent double top going to get cancelled by hungry-for-cut bulls?), the Dow Jones still holding around/above its previous all-time highs, and the Nasdaq held at the lows of its ascending channel.You can observe all of the most recent technical updates for US Indices right here: Markets tread carefully as US indices consolidate after Powell's speech Markets have been holding around hopes of further US Dollar weakness around US Rate cuts and FED's Independence being constantly attacked by the Trump Administration – But one of the most important market developments is the failure for USD bears to push for further lows..As it was marked in a July US Dollar analysis (a bit out-dated now but still valid), the longer-run selling trend for the Greenback may have just concluded, have we seen the bottom for the USD after a first-half of bloodshed for the Reserve currency?In the waiting for more data, FX majors have been mostly rangebound as seen in USDJPY for example. Read More: USDJPY rallies into its range amid a US Dollar rebound – Will the range break? Let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USDCAD and DXY charts.North-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView The TSX is back on top, with US Indices performing in a more rangebound fashion.Dollar Index 8H Chart US Dollar Index 8H Chart, August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is running to test the highs of its range – go check out the levels on our latest USD Index (DXY) analysis. Read More: What’s driving the US Dollar after Powell’s Friday remarks? Dollar Index (DXY) outlookUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors, August 27, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The price action for the US Dollar has been seesawing all around, but the trajectory is still higher overall.There is ongoing selling happening right now as Markets are rejecting the higher bound of the range seen just above.CAD Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, August 27, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The Loonie has stopped weakening against other majors but has still yet to mark a concrete return – The CAD is consolidating at the lows against its peers.Macklem did mention the 2% target not changing for the Bank of Canada in a Speech released yesterday. Upward inflation risks have been pointed, in a relatively hawkish tone which could support the Canadian Dollar.Participants are really waiting for better Canadian data to allow the Loonie to really make a comeback. In the meantime, it will be moving along with the USD in the pursued geographic trend in FX.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USDCAD 4H Chart, August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView USDCAD had retracted from its extremes and is now back into the higher part of its range.Still, buyers are stubborn at the 1.38130 support that acts as a key barometer for future price action.Selling might accelerate if the level is broken, but with the rangebound action in FX, it should be holding still – Tomorrow's GDP release for both the US and the Canada will have strong influence on future outcomes.Levels to place on your USDCAD charts: Resistance Levels:1.3850 Main resistance (immediate resistance1.3925 Aug 22 highs last Friday highsMay Highs 1.40185Support Levels:Immediate support at May 30 highs - 1.38 HandleKey longer-term pivot 1.3750Main Support Zone 1.3675 to 1.3686US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The rest of the week should be a bit more exciting as it comes to US and Canadian data, with GDP expected to release for both countries tomorrow at 8:30 A.M. and the US Core PCE awaited for Friday.The Core PCE is obtained with the calculation of many already released data like CPI, PPI and others but some surprises can still happen. The Core y/y data is expected at 3.1% and is still very high to prompt further cuts – Let's see how markets interpret this.For lower-tier data, still consider the Jobless Claims (continuing claims have been trending higher, at November 2021 levels) and Friday's U-of-Mich Consumer sentiment data.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Like other FX pairs, USDJPY has been held in a tight range for the past two full weeks.There is a lack of clarity regarding the outlook for US cuts due to contradicting data, supplemented by Markets having digested a more balanced/dovish tone from Powell rather than a fully dovish one (from a more balanced/hawkish tone regarding the impact of tariffs).The question remains: Will there be only 2 cuts this year? This would not change much to the FED's quarterly outlook from previous meetings.Markets are also awaiting more information regarding who will be the next FED board member. Reactions to the US Dollar have been minimal regarding the firing of Lisa Cook, a board member (hence a continuous voter).The Bank of Japan has been waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut rates to reduce the huge rate differentials that have hurt the Yen throughout the past 3 years.Luckily for the BoJ, a basis trade unwind in July 2024, combined with US Dollar weakness, has gradually naturally reduced the Yen's relative weakness. However, it is still at relative lows against its European peers.Let's examine USDJPY multi-timeframe technicals to see if the daily USD rally is enough for the pair to break out of its range and establish its boundaries. Read More:What’s driving the US Dollar after Powell’s Friday remarks? Dollar Index (DXY) outlookMarkets Today: Trump Slaps 50% Tariff on India, Australian Inflation Surge, FTSE Eyes Head & Shoulder Pattern. NVIDIA Earnings LaterUSDJPY multi-timeframe technical analysisUSDJPY Daily Chart USDJPY Daily Chart, August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView The most volatile FX pair has been held into a 1,000 to 1,900 pip range for the past 18 days, a prolonged consolidation compared to the usual.Despite all of the headlines throughout the year, nothing really changed compared to the fundamentals of the year-beginning – Markets are still awaiting for a concrete change to the main rates for both the FED and the Bank of Japan, leading to some mostly rangebound action since May.The range has tightened quite a lot however this month, located between 146.80 (lows) to 148.70 (range extremes), with the price action located between the 50 and 200-Day Moving averages acting as key boundaries.As a matter of fact, they will be acting as key indicators for a more concrete breakout – expect rangebound action as long as prices remain within these boundaries.Let's discover where they stand just below.USDJPY 4H Chart USDJPY 4H Chart, August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView The 4H timeframe allows to spot the current price action heading higher as the current US Dollar buying is bringing the pair above the 200 4H-period MA in a higher-low formation, supported by a short-timeframe upward trendline.A higher timeframe Head and Shoulders could also be into play but its long-shape may not create enough clarity to make the pattern valid – It is still noteworthy but hold about a 35% chance of materializing further.Key trading Levels for USDJPY:Resistance Levels148.78 last Friday highsMay range extremes from 148.70 to 149.50 (daily MA 200 in confluence)149.00 200-Day MA Key range resistanceSupport LevelsPivot at the 148.00 zone (acting as immediate support)147.00 50-Day MA Key range support146.50 mid-range and immediate support (Daily MA 50 in confluence)145.00 psychological supportUSDJPY 1H Chart USDJPY 1H Chart, August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking even closer, bulls will have to push harder to break the last Friday highs as price action is stalling at the high of 148 pivot Zone, a key short-term pivot.Particularly as markets lack further data and fundamentals to break out from rangebound price action, the short-term outlook is more rangebound than breakout-prone.Look at the top in the 1H RSI, if buying goes further, it will add to more chances of testing the range extremes around the last Friday highs.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Painting new lows last Friday, gains in today’s session keep the dollar-franc exchange above the key level of 0.8000 - at least for now.Currently trading around ~$0.80698, recent developments on the Federal Reserve’s autonomy on monetary policy and potential action by the SNB continue to dominate USD/CHF headlines.USD/CHF: Key takeaways from today’s session Boasting reasonable gains in Monday’s session, despite a public holiday in the United Kingdom, USD/CHF trades ~0.46% higher today, as markets adjust expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policyOtherwise, questions continue surrounding Federal Reserve independence from the US central government, with President Trump attempting to fire board governor Lisa CookHaving reminded markets that intervention remains a real possibility, the SNB remains poised to take action should the franc stage a runaway strengthening versus the dollarUSD/CHF: Dovish fed commentary at Jackson Hole spells trouble for US dollar Put simply, markets are increasingly certain of a September rate cut, in no small part because of dovish Federal Reserve commentary during last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium. "With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance" Jerome Powell speaking at the JHS, August 22nd, federalreserve.gov While markets have consistently predicted Fed rate cuts in the remainder of 2025, confirmation from Jerome Powell himself now have markets overwhelmingly predicting a rate cut of 25 BPS in the upcoming decisions September 17th. CME FedWatch, 26/08/2025 As for USD/CHF pricing, markets would do well to acknowledge how much the dollar has fallen versus the franc this year despite the Federal Reserve's best efforts to tighten monetary policy, especially when compared to the SNB.As such, any suggestion that the Federal Reserve will lower rates will negatively affect the dollar and introduce selling pressure in USD/CHF markets, a phenomenon seen just last Friday.Read more on Jackson Hole: Markets go wild from the Jackson Hole Symposium – Market wrap for the North American session - August 22USD/CHF: Dollar finds support as Trump firing bid meets a dead-end While building anonymity between the Republican party and the Federal Reserve is not a hot topic, the latest developments are perhaps the most significant for dollar-franc markets. @realDonaldTrump, TruthSocial, 25/08/2025 Sharing the above letter yesterday on his social media platform of choice, TruthSocial, President Trump has made his intentions to fire Governor Cook clear, citing alleged mortgage fraud.While matters of fraud amongst government officials would not typically be of such interest to financial markets, the move reignites discussion whether any US government should have the power to fire Federal Reserve officials, considering political independence is a core tenet of the institution.Supposing Trump successfully removes Cook from office and overcomes various legal hurdles, an interesting precedent will be set, especially considering that Trump has been clear in his dislike for Powell and his policy of higher interest rates.Regarding USD/CHF price action, any developments suggesting that Trump can wrangle more control of the Federal Reserve and its employees and, therefore, appoint governors who favour an aggressive lowering of interest rates will likely introduce some dollar-franc selling pressure.As such, the next few days remain crucial, especially with USD/CHF hovering around the key level of 0.80000.USD/CHF: SNB ready to intervene to halt CHF strengthening Having already strengthened significantly compared to the dollar in the first half of the year, the trusted tool of currency intervention by the SNB remains a real possibility should dollar-franc continue to its decent.Already trading around multi-year lows and citing the competitiveness of imports, USD/CHF downside may be capped in the near-term, considering the SNB’s clear commitment to intervention where appropriate. USD/CHF, OANDA, TradingView, 27/08/2025 Read more analysis from today: Markets Today: Trump Slaps 50% Tariff on India, Australian Inflation Surge, FTSE Eyes Head & Shoulder Pattern. NVIDIA Earnings Later Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - India Tariffs Kick In, Australia CPI Surge Most Read: NVIDIA (NVDA) Earnings: Navigating the Blackwell Supercycle Amid Geopolitical CrosscurrentsAsian stocks were mostly flat on Wednesday as investors awaited an earnings report from AI giant Nvidia, which could influence market sentiment in the short term.There were gains for Asian tech shares with China's AI leader Cambricon jumped 8.2% to a record high after posting its best-ever profit. Nikon shares surged 21% as Ray-Ban maker EssilorLuxottica considered boosting its investment.Overall, Asian tech stocks rose by up to 0.7%. In China, new data showed that industrial companies' profits dropped more slowly in July, suggesting efforts to cut overcapacity might be easing pressure from tough competition.Meanwhile, the U.S. imposed a steep 50% tariff on some Indian goods as punishment for buying Russian oil, disrupting years of efforts to build stronger ties with India. Indian markets are closed on Wednesday for a holiday.Looking at the Pacific Region, Australian consumer prices rose much more than expected in July, driven by a spike in electricity costs due to the timing of government rebates. Core inflation also increased, reducing hopes for a rate cut next month.The chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting rates in September dropped to 22% from 30% after the data, though investors still expect a rate cut in November.For more on the Australian inflation picture, read Australian inflation surges, Aussie dipsEuropean Open - French Political Drama, European Stocks Rise as Market Participants ‘Buy the Dip’ European shares rose slightly on Wednesday, bouncing back from their biggest drop in almost a month, as investors took advantage of lower prices while staying cautious about political risks in France.The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.4% by early Wednesday.France's CAC 40 also gained 0.4%, recovering from a three-week low caused by fears that Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's government might collapse next month. Mid-sized French stocks stayed mostly flat, while major banks BNP Paribas and Societe Generale extended small losses for a third day.Three opposition parties announced plans to challenge Bayrou's budget cuts on September 8. If the government falls, President Macron could appoint a new prime minister, keep Bayrou as a temporary leader, or call for early elections.Stock markets in Germany, Italy, and Spain rose slightly, gaining between 0.1% and 0.3%.Shares of Orsted and Novo Nordisk, which had been underperforming, rose 3.5% and 2%, respectively. Porsche climbed 3.8% after reports that the company is searching for a new CEO as Oliver Blume focuses on leading Volkswagen.Rio Tinto's London-listed shares rose nearly 1% after the company announced plans to simplify its operations into three units: Iron Ore, Aluminium & Lithium, and Copper.Meanwhile, a survey showed German consumer confidence is expected to drop for the third month in September, as worries about job security and inflation weigh on households.On the FX front, The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1593, and the British pound dropped 0.3% to $1.3441, losing some of the gains made after Trump announced plans to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged issues with mortgage loans.The U.S. dollar gained 0.2% against both the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, while the New Zealand dollar dropped 0.4% to $0.5834.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices leveled off on Wednesday after dropping the day before. Investors are keeping an eye on updates about the Ukraine war and a report showing a decline in US crude inventories.US special envoy Steve Witkoff said he will meet with Ukrainian officials in New York this week and is also in talks with Russia to help end the conflict.Brent crude was down 4 cents at $67.18 per barrel, and WTI crude dropped 3 cents to $63.22. Both prices had fallen over 2% on Tuesday after starting the week at their highest levels since early August.Gold prices saw a pullback in the Asian session toward the $3375/oz handle before bulls returned. Safe haven demand remains in play as FED independence fears, uncertainty around the French government and Russia/Ukraine peace talks all add uncertainties to global markets.For more on Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Push up towards medium-term range resistance zone as Fed’s independence erodesEconomic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, a quiet day ahead in terms of data. However, markets will be keeping an eye on developments in France for any changes which could have a significant impact on bond yields across Europe.According to a Bloomberg report released this morning, the European Union plans to fast-track a law to remove all tariffs on U.S. industrial goods by the end of the week. This move is in response to President Donald Trump's demand, as a condition for the U.S. to reduce tariffs on European car exports.Later in the day, focus and attention will be on Nvidia, the world's most valuable company, is set to provide updates later today on the AI market, following a sharp tech stock rally that slowed down in August.For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 seems to be forming a head and shoulder pattern on the four-hour chart after a lower high yesterday.The period-14 RSI is also flirting with the 50 neutral level with a break seen as a sign that momentum may be shifting.If the head and shoulder pattern completes its formation and we do get a breakout, there is a possibility of a 110 point decline toward the 9120 area which would line up perfectly with the 200-day MA. (yellow line).Interesting inflection point for the FTSE 100 after multiple fresh all-time highs in the last few weeks. This sets the stage for a potential deeper retracement.FTSE Daily Chart, August 27. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: WTI Oil Retreats From Near Three-Week Highs as Pessimism Grows Around Russia/Ukraine DealNVIDIA Corporation's (NASDAQ: NVDA) upcoming financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, scheduled for release on August 27, 2025, represent more than a standard earnings report; they are a critical litmus test for the entire Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment narrative that has propelled technology markets to new heights.What to Expect? The market enters this earnings season with a wide and telling gap between NVIDIA's official guidance and the Street's expectations, a dynamic that has come to define the company's reporting cycle. For the second quarter (ending July 2025), management guided for revenue of approximately $45.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, which establishes a range of $44.1 billion to $45.9 billion.However, Wall Street consensus has coalesced around a significantly higher figure. The average analyst estimates clusters in the range of $46.0 billion to $46.5 billion in revenue and $1.00 to $1.02 in non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS). These figures imply a staggering year-over-year growth rate of more than 50%, a testament to the unabated demand for AI infrastructure. Source: Google Gemini, Created by Zain Vawda Beyond the official consensus, more bullish "whisper numbers" suggest a potential upside scenario approaching $48 billion in revenue and $1.06 in EPS. Underscoring this sentiment, Bank of America projected a beat at $47 billion, highlighting the immense pressure on NVIDIA to not just meet, but substantially exceed, the formal consensus.This phenomenon is a direct result of NVIDIA's consistent pattern of issuing what appears to be conservative guidance and then delivering significant outperformance. This ritual has conditioned the market to anticipate a substantial beat, making the stock exceptionally sensitive to the magnitude of the outperformance.A revenue beat of "only" $1 billion, which would be extraordinary for any other company, could be perceived as a disappointment, underscoring the high-stakes nature of this report.The options market reflects this tension, with implied volatility suggesting a potential stock price move of 6.5% to 7.5% in the hours following the release.Key Areas to Focus On - The Hyperscaler Engine: AI Spending and NVIDIA's Role Massive AI Spending by Big TechBig Tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are spending heavily on AI infrastructure, driving demand for NVIDIA's GPUs. By 2025, hyperscaler capital expenditures (capex) are expected to reach $315–$365 billion, with a growing share going to AI systems. Some analysts believe these estimates are too low, predicting capex growth could rise to 25% or more, as seen with Meta's 47% growth guidance. This suggests AI investments will last longer and peak higher than expected.From Training to InferenceAI demand is shifting from training large models to inference—using trained models for real-time tasks like predictions and responses. Inference requires a global network of GPUs, making AI spending a continuous need rather than a one-time investment. This shift positions AI infrastructure as essential, like the internet or power grids. However, challenges like energy demands and regulatory scrutiny could slow growth.NVIDIA's Blackwell Platform and Competitive EdgeNVIDIA's upcoming Blackwell GPUs and systems, launching in 2025, are in high demand, with production already sold out. The company plans to release new architectures annually, keeping competitors at bay. Beyond hardware, NVIDIA's CUDA software ecosystem is its biggest advantage, creating high switching costs for customers.Integrated Systems StrategyNVIDIA is moving from selling individual GPUs to offering complete systems like the NVL72 racks. This boosts revenue, locks in customers with proprietary tech, and makes it harder for competitors to compete. NVIDIA is no longer just a chipmaker but a full data center solutions provider, further strengthening its market dominance.Forward Outlook Q3 Guidance - The $5-8 Billion Question NVIDIA's Q3 revenue could see a major boost if sales to China resume, with estimates ranging from $5 billion to $8 billion in extra revenue. Bank of America predicts total Q3 revenue could hit $60 billion if shipments to China scale up.Pricing and MarginsTo counter a 15% revenue-sharing mandate, NVIDIA plans to raise prices on its China-specific Blackwell chips by 18%. While this protects profits, it may slightly lower gross margins from 71% to 69.3%.China Strategy and RisksNVIDIA is developing a new chip, the B30A, to comply with future export rules. However, Chinese customers are increasingly wary of U.S. chips, fearing security risks, and rising costs may push China to speed up its domestic chip development. While NVIDIA’s pricing power shows its dominance, it risks losing long-term market share in China as the country works toward self-sufficiency.Broader RisksValuation Pressure: NVIDIA’s high stock valuation (40x earnings) leaves no room for mistakes. Even meeting expectations might disappoint investors.Supply Chain Dependence: NVIDIA relies heavily on partners like TSMC for advanced chip production and SK Hynix/Micron for memory. Any disruption could hurt production.Competition: Big Tech companies like Google and Amazon are developing their own chips, and China’s local competitors are growing due to U.S. export restrictions.Networking Growth: NVIDIA’s networking segment is expected to grow 20% annually, but failure to capitalize on this could be a missed opportunity.Energy Concerns: AI data centers consume massive power, which could lead to regulatory or infrastructure challenges in the future. Source: Source: Google Gemini, Created by Zain Vawda In summary, while NVIDIA has strong short-term prospects, long-term risks in China, supply chains, and competition could impact its dominance.Technical Analysis - NVIDIA From a technical standpoint, Nvidia shares are back near their all-time highs following the recent pullback.The pullback bottomed out around the 168.50 handle before rallying back toward its all-time highs.The fact that the share price is hovering near its all time highs adds further jeopardy to the earnings release.The RSI period-14 on the four-hour chart is still some way off from overbought territory which hints at the potential for further upside.NVIDIA Four-Hour Chart, August 27, 2025 Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Friday's ecstatic trading brought all risk-assets including Equity indices, cryptocurrencies and FX currencies higher.But Participants, having time to digest the switch of tone from Powell's Jackson Hole speech over the week-end, have backed up on their euphoric pricing.Nonetheless, US Indices have made quite a move, particularly the Dow Jones making new all-time highs. The Nasdaq is trying to re-enter its longer-run upward channel, the S&P 500 retests its record highs and the US 30 made a break-retest pattern which could potentially lead to a further technical rebound.For other news, US President Trump fired FED's Cook yesterday amid mortgage fraud allegations, hurting the US Dollar a tid-bit but markets seem to discard the headline a bit. It will be key to spot who he appoints next (Lisa Cook had been appointed by President Biden in 2022).Let's have a look at all US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) intraday levels to spot where they could be heading in upcoming trading as current picture shows mixed signs. Read More: What’s driving the US Dollar after Powell’s Friday remarks? Dollar Index (DXY) outlookDow Jones 4H Chart Dow Jones 4H Chart, August 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Traders seem to how no sign of life in the current picture, but overall the correction from yesterday has formed a short-term bottom at a break-retest of the previous all-time highs – Bulls entering here would add higher probabilities of bullish continuation.On the other hand, bears will want to recross the 45,000 Pivot Zone to enter the past month range (which goes all the way to the 44,000 Main Support).Levels of interest for Dow Jones Trading:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 45,757ATH Resistance Zone 45,700 (+/- 150 pts)1.618 Fibonacci-Extension for potential ATH resistance 46,260Support LevelsPrevious ATH resistance zone, now pivot 45,000 (+/- 150 points)45,283 previous ATH (getting tested right now)44,000 Main Support ZoneS&P 500 4H Chart S&P 500 4H Chart, August 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Buyers are trying to enter at the 4H 50 period MA but the attempt is shy.Indeed, a technical double top at the all-time high (created last Friday from the Powell bullish impulse) may provide a more bearish intermediate outlook for the Index.However, reaching the highs again and breaking them would point to a continuation within the upward Channel.Levels of interest for S&P 500 Trading:Resistance Levelssession highs 6,390 (2H MA 200 in confluence)All-time high resistance zone 6,470 to 6,490Current All-time Highs 6,4896,539 Potential ATH resistance (from Fibonacci extension)Support LevelsImmediate Pivot 6,4306,400 Support and Channel lowspre-Powell mini support 6,3506,210 to 6,235 Main Support (NFP Lows)Nasdaq 4H Chart Nasdaq 4H Chart, August 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bulls have successfully brought the index back into the upward channel, with the Nasdaq being the only index higher at the open but the margin is small and Bulls will have to counter the 4H MA 50 acting as immediate resistance.Holding above the lower bound of the upward channel would help the bullish case.Staying below the 50-MA on the other hand may be bringing more bearish flows that should accelerate on a break-down.The current picture is also mixed for Tech as seen with shy rebounds in Cryptocurrencies for example, so watch sentiment ahead.Levels to watch for Nasdaq trading:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time Highs 23,98623,500 Support turned resistance23,492 4H-MA 50 acting as immediate resistanceSupport Levels23,000 Key momentum Pivot22,700 support at NFP lowsEarly 2025 ATH at 22,229Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar has been in a weird trading zone since the contradicting NFP report from the beginning of the month (forcing a dovish hand) and the strong PPI report that has shown the appearance of tariff effects (forcing a hawkish hand).Since, the odds for a September cut have held tight, despite regressing slightly (was up to 97% before the PPI report but re-corrected back to around 87% currently).The confusion stands from a FED Chair having changed his tone at his Jackson Hole speech last Friday, which tends to be considered a pre-emptive sign of a cut approaching sooner than later.However, Market reactions may have been exaggerated for the little advances he mentioned towards a larger Sep cut or even a prolonged/fast-pace cut cycle. Hence, the US Dollar caved on the Friday session before rebounding yesterday.The past two weeks of Forex trading have pretty much dawdled around with no direction found – The September Cut is almost a sure thing by now, particularly after US President Trump fired another Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, who was appointed by President Biden in 2022.But these questions remains:How much can the FED really cut to avoid inflation coming back?Inflation expectations are high and the warning from PPI wasn't one to neglect.Is it already too late to prevent a Job market harsh slowdown?The previous Non-Farm Payrolls report was a scary one, with job creation already slowing down (despite demand also slowing down). The next one is coming up on September 5th. Read More: Markets Today: Trump's FED Battle Intensifies, French Stocks Slide on Political Risk, DAX Finds Support at 50-Day MADollar Index multi-timeframe AnalysisUS Dollar Daily Chart Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, August 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Greenback has been held in a 1000 pip consolidation since the past 10 sessions.One would have thought that it was the end for the USD after Friday's reactions to Powell, but as explained in the introduction, it seems that Markets have backed up on their Friday ecstatic reactions – This can be seen in Cryptos and Equities not continuing their up-moves and even retracting.Consolidating around the 98.00 Pivot, a key milestone for the current trading, Markets will await further data to try to find direction. Look at how flat the RSI has been since the 13th of August.US Dollar 4H Chart Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, August 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is still holding its low-slope ascending channel despite having reasons to break out from it.As seen on the chart, the DXY is held between 98.80 range highs and 97.60 range lows, with the 50-period MA just holding in the middle of the range (98.17)The narrative would imply downward movement to the USD but the move may have happened throughout the first part of 2025! In case you forgot, the DXY was at 110.00 just in January.So that leaves the overall direction subject to change, where data slowing down the extent of cuts pricing in would make the US Dollar rebound.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Support Levels:50-period MA acting as immediate support (98.17)Lower bound of the upward channel and low of 98.00 pivot zone (97.60)2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Resistance Levels:US Dollar range Highs 98.82Mid-line of the ascending channel and psychological level 99.50100.00 Main resistance zoneYou may expect further consolidation in FX and other markets in the waiting of more data (Core PCE is approaching on Friday).Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.