Oil traders note - Saudi airstrikes in Yemen expose escalating tensions with UAEChina defies easing calls as PBOC keeps rates steady and shifts focus to fiscal supportSilver steadies after sharpest sell-off in 5 years as metals head for best year since 1979PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0348 (vs. estimate at 7.0112)South Korea to unveil MSCI Developed Market inclusion roadmap early next yearTrump warns Iran of renewed strikes, keeps Middle East oil risk premium simmeringUS oil inventories surprise higher as geopolitics keeps crude supportedNvidia completes $5bn Intel investment as strategic partnership takes shapeApple China iPhone demand rebound bolsters US$300–$315 price target outlookFinancial markets across the region traded in subdued fashion as the countdown to 2026 continued and most professional participants remained in holiday mode. Major FX pairs were confined to narrow ranges, regional equities were quietly mixed, and Japanese government bond yields eased slightly. The data calendar was largely empty, keeping conviction low. In commodities, oil prices were steady to marginally higher, while silver clawed back some ground following its sharp recent correction.Geopolitics provided the main source of direction, though markets largely looked through the headlines. In Asia, China conducted a further 10 hours of live-fire drills around Taiwan on Tuesday, extending what Beijing has described as its largest-ever exercises around the island. The drills, spanning multiple zones in surrounding sea and airspace, were framed by China’s Eastern Theatre Command as a show of resolve against separatism. The manoeuvres follow a recent US announcement of a large arms package for Taiwan. Despite the scale of the exercises, broader market reaction remained muted.Elsewhere, Middle East risk continued to underpin energy markets. US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could support fresh strikes should Iran be found rebuilding weapons programs, while also urging Hamas to disarm. The comments revived regional risk considerations and reinforced a geopolitical premium in oil, even in the absence of immediate supply disruptions.Oil prices were also supported earlier by conflict-related headlines from Ukraine and Yemen. Saudi Arabia carried out airstrikes in southern Yemen targeting STC-linked positions and, for the first time, accused weapons supplies of arriving via UAE channels — a notable escalation that highlights a widening rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. The episode adds a new layer of uncertainty to Middle East stability.Meanwhile, US inventory data showed crude stocks rising by 405,000 barrels last week against expectations for a draw, with gasoline inventories jumping nearly 3 million barrels. Ordinarily bearish, the figures were largely shrugged off as geopolitical concerns continued to dominate price action.Overall, thin liquidity and year-end positioning kept markets range-bound, with geopolitics shaping risk sentiment more than fundamentals for now. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) -0.25%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +0.45% Shanghai Composite -0.1%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:Saudi Arabia carried out airstrikes in southern Yemen, indirectly confronting the UAE.Riyadh accused UAE-linked channels of supplying weapons to southern separatists.The episode exposes a widening Saudi–UAE rift with potential oil-market implications.Quiet but long-simmering tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) moved into the open after Saudi airstrikes in southern Yemen, marking the first time Riyadh has directly opposed its former ally in the Yemen conflict.Saudi Arabia said it carried out strikes targeting weapons depots linked to the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a UAE-backed southern separatist faction seeking to restore an independent South Yemen along pre-1990 borders. According to Saudi officials, the weapons were delivered via two ships from Fujairah port in UAE, a claim that sharply escalates the political significance of the operation.The strikes reportedly hit the port of Mukalla in Yemen’s eastern Hadramout province, an area that has become increasingly sensitive as rival regional powers jockey for influence along key Red Sea and Gulf of Aden trade routes. While Riyadh has long viewed the STC’s separatist ambitions as a strategic red line, the latest action suggests Saudi Arabia is now willing to confront the UAE’s role more directly, albeit through proxy dynamics on Yemeni soil.Saudi–UAE friction has been building for years beneath the surface. Once aligned in Yemen against the Houthi movement, the two powers have diverged sharply over end-game objectives. The UAE has cultivated strong ties with southern militias and port infrastructure, while Saudi Arabia prioritises territorial integrity along its southern border and fears that Yemeni fragmentation could destabilise the region.The implications extend well beyond Yemen. Any visible rupture between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi introduces a new layer of uncertainty for energy markets. Both countries sit at the heart of global oil supply chains, and rising intra-Gulf tensions risk inflating geopolitical risk premiums, particularly if disputes spill into maritime chokepoints or shipping logistics.For now, the confrontation remains indirect. But the strikes underscore how Yemen is once again emerging as a flashpoint, not just for regional proxy wars, but for fractures among Gulf allies themselves. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:China delivered minimal rate cuts despite expectations for aggressive easing.The PBOC has prioritised financial stability and targeted liquidity tools.Fiscal stimulus is expected to carry the bulk of policy support into 2026.China’s central bank has taken a notably restrained approach to monetary easing, defying widespread expectations for aggressive rate cuts as the economy grapples with weak domestic demand, deflationary pressure and structural imbalances. Over the past year, the People’s Bank of China trimmed its policy rate only once, by 10 basis points, the smallest annual reduction since 2021, despite forecasts from major Wall Street banks calling for easing of up to 40 basis points. Info comes via a Bloomberg report, gated. The caution has surprised markets, particularly after Beijing signalled a shift to a “moderately loose” monetary stance for the first time in 14 years as it prepared for escalating trade tensions with the US. What economists underestimated was the resilience of China’s export sector, concerns over banking-system stability, and the impact of a strong equity-market rally, all of which reduced the urgency for sweeping rate cuts. Compared with global peers, China’s stance stands out. While advanced-economy central banks have cut policy rates by an average of 1.6 percentage points over the past two years, the PBOC has delivered only a fraction of that. Adjusted for inflation, Chinese interest rates have moved back into positive territory, underscoring Beijing’s reluctance to follow the ultra-loose playbook adopted by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan during downturns. Instead, policymakers have leaned on targeted and less conventional tools. Liquidity injections through short- and medium-term operations, selective relending programs, support for equity markets and renewed government bond purchases have kept funding conditions loose without slashing benchmark rates. These measures have pushed interbank borrowing costs, such as the seven-day repo rate, to their lowest levels since early 2023. Officials see limited scope for further cuts, with the key policy rate, the 7-day reverse repo, at 1.4% and concerns that deeper reductions could compress bank margins, weaken credit growth and fuel “Japanification” fears. As a result, fiscal policy is set to play the dominant role in 2026, with monetary policy focused on maintaining liquidity and keeping government borrowing costs low rather than driving a demand-led rebound. --- The 7-day reverse repo rate, now considered a key policy signal, was cut from 1.5% to 1.4% on May 9, 2025.The 1-year LPR was trimmed to 3.0% from 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR was lowered to 3.5% from 3.6% in May also.. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:Silver steadied after a 9% one-day drop, the largest in over five years.Both gold and silver are on track for their best annual gains since 1979.Central-bank buying, ETF inflows and Fed rate cuts continue to underpin prices.Silver prices stabilised above $73 an ounce after suffering their steepest one-day decline in more than five years, as investors digested an aggressive bout of profit-taking following a powerful year-end rally. The 9% drop on Monday marked silver’s sharpest daily fall since 2019, briefly rattling sentiment across the precious metals complex.Gold prices were comparatively subdued, holding broadly flat after recording their largest two-month decline in years. While near-term momentum has softened, both metals remain on track to post their strongest annual gains since 1979, underlining the scale of the move seen across 2025.Structural support for precious metals remains firmly in place. Central-bank buying has continued at elevated levels, reinforcing gold’s role as a reserve asset amid geopolitical uncertainty and rising fiscal risks. At the same time, sustained inflows into exchange-traded funds have broadened investor participation, while three interest-rate cuts delivered this year by the Federal Reserve have eased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.Silver’s rally, however, has been amplified by additional forces. Speculative demand in China surged in recent weeks, pushing premiums on the Shanghai Futures Exchange to record highs. These elevated premiums signalled acute local demand and contributed to tightness in global supply chains, echoing earlier inventory squeezes seen this year in both London and New York vaults.Those dislocations helped propel silver sharply higher into year-end, leaving the market vulnerable to a violent correction once momentum stalled. The latest pullback appears to reflect position unwinds rather than a fundamental shift in the outlook.Looking ahead, analysts expect volatility to remain elevated, particularly in silver, which tends to exaggerate moves in gold during periods of speculative excess. Still, with monetary easing underway, strong official-sector demand and lingering supply constraints, the broader backdrop for precious metals remains supportive as markets move into 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Monday's close was 7.0056.People's Bank of China injects 312.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operations, rate remains 1.4%.---The People’s Bank of China daily USD/CNY reference rate is a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets.China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours.Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations.Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks.As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:South Korea will publish a roadmap early next year for MSCI index upgrade.The move targets long-standing accessibility gaps that currently keep Korea as an emerging market.Inclusion could attract substantial foreign capital and narrow the “Korea discount.”South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance has confirmed it will announce a detailed roadmap early next year aimed at securing inclusion in the MSCI Developed Market Index, a long-standing goal that could reshape international investor flows into the country’s capital markets. Despite its status as Asia’s fourth-largest economy, South Korea has remained classified as an emerging market by MSCI for over a decade, even being dropped off the Developed Markets watchlist in 2014 due to accessibility constraints and regulatory barriers. While other benchmark providers such as FTSE Russell categorise Korea as developed, MSCI’s classification has a unique impact on passive investment flows, with analysts estimating that an upgrade could attract billions of dollars in foreign capital as index-linked funds adjust their allocations. The government’s planned roadmap is expected to focus on market accessibility enhancements, targeting structural issues that MSCI has repeatedly flagged, such as restrictions in the foreign exchange market and investor access. Recent reforms, including expanded foreign participation and potential FX market opening measures, underscore Seoul’s broader strategy to make its markets more investable.South Korean President Lee Jae‑myung has publicly framed this push as part of ending the so-called “Korea discount,” a term used to describe the valuation gap between Korean equities and peers in developed markets. In speeches abroad, Lee linked MSCI inclusion to boosting investor confidence and deepening global capital integration. An upgrade to the MSCI Developed Market Index does not happen overnight. It typically involves an interim watchlist phase, giving global investors time to adjust before full inclusion, often followed by an extended evaluation of reforms in practice. For South Korea, success would not only reflect its economic maturity and market infrastructure but could also unlock significant passive inflows, improve liquidity, and strengthen its standing in the global investment landscape. ---Re global index provider Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:Trump warned Iran against rebuilding weapons programs, reviving strike risk.Renewed Iran tensions raise the prospect of higher oil risk premiums.Hamas disarmament pressure adds to regional instability concerns.Trump renews Iran strike warning as Gaza disarmament pressure raises oil risk premiumUS President Donald Trump warned that Washington could back another major military strike on Iran if Tehran is found rebuilding its ballistic missile or nuclear weapons programs, while also issuing a stark ultimatum to Hamas to disarm or face severe consequences.Speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after talks at Mar-a-Lago, Trump said recent intelligence and media reports suggested Iran may be attempting to reconstitute weapons capabilities at alternative locations following a major US strike in June. He indicated Washington was closely tracking Iranian activity, adding that any renewed escalation would not be tolerated.The comments refocus market attention on Iran’s role in regional energy stability. Iran remains a critical oil producer and a central geopolitical node near key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz. Any renewed military action, or even heightened threats, risks tightening supply expectations, lifting risk premiums across crude markets and increasing volatility in energy-linked assets.Iran, which fought a brief but intense conflict with Israel in June, said last week it had conducted fresh missile exercises, reinforcing concerns in Washington and Tel Aviv that tensions could flare again. While Trump reiterated openness to a negotiated nuclear arrangement, his remarks underscored that diplomacy would be contingent on clear restraint from Tehran.Trump also turned his attention to Gaza, urging progress toward a second phase of the ceasefire agreement brokered last year. That phase would involve international peacekeeping forces and a transition away from active combat. However, Hamas has refused to disarm, and Trump accused the group of undermining the agreement while warning that Israel could resume military operations if disarmament does not occur.For oil markets, the dual focus on Iran and Gaza keeps geopolitical risk firmly embedded in prices. Even in the absence of immediate supply disruptions, the prospect of renewed conflict involving Iran, directly or via regional spillovers, is likely to support crude prices by reinforcing a persistent Middle East risk premium into 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:EIA data showed unexpected builds across crude, gasoline and distillates.Inventory figures clashed with prior expectations for tightening balances.Oil prices remained supported by geopolitical risk and supply concerns.---US oil inventories surprise to the upside as geopolitical risk lifts crude pricesThe US Energy Information Administration’s long-delayed weekly inventory report delivered a notable upside surprise, complicating an oil market already being driven by heightened geopolitical risk and supply-disruption concerns.The US Energy Information Administration published its data for the week ended December 19 after a delay from the original Monday release window. The figures ran counter to expectations from an extended Reuters poll, which had anticipated a sizeable crude draw alongside modest builds in refined products.Instead, US crude inventories rose by 405,000 barrels to 424.82 million, versus forecasts for a 2.4 million-barrel draw,Gasoline stocks climbed sharply, up 2.9 million barrels to 228.49 million, well above expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel increase,Distillate inventories also rose, increasing 202,000 barrels to 118.7 million, roughly in line with consensus expectations.The data suggest softer near-term refinery demand and relatively comfortable supply conditions, particularly in gasoline, at a time when markets had been leaning toward tighter balances. Under normal circumstances, such numbers would have weighed on prices. However, broader macro and geopolitical dynamics continued to dominate sentiment.Earlier, oil prices had already settled sharply higher, driven by renewed geopolitical tension. Brent crude futures rose $1.30, or 2.1%, to settle at $61.94 a barrel, while US WTI gained $1.34, or 2.4%, to close at $58.08.Markets reacted to claims from Moscow that Ukrainian drones had targeted a Russian presidential residence, prompting Russia to review its stance on peace talks. Ukraine dismissed the accusations, but the headlines revived concerns about prolonged conflict risk. At the same time, tensions in Yemen intensified after Saudi air strikes followed clashes involving southern separatist forces, keeping Middle East supply risks firmly in focus.Analysts noted:geopolitical instability, alongside strong Chinese seaborne crude imports, is helping offset otherwise bearish inventory signalsprices likely to recover modestly into 2026 as non-OPEC+ supply growth slows This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:Nvidia has completed a $5bn private placement in Intel, formalising a ~4% equity stake.The deal follows US government and SoftBank funding aimed at supporting Intel’s turnaround.Intel’s recent share rally leaves Nvidia sitting on a sizeable unrealised gain.--Nvidia’s $5bn Intel stake becomes official as partnership shifts from promise to executionNvidia has formally completed its long-flagged $5 billion strategic investment in Intel, turning a headline-grabbing September announcement into settled cash, issued shares, and a now-official equity stake.According to a securities filing highlighted by The Information (gated), Nvidia purchased roughly 214.8 million Intel shares at $23.28 apiece via a private placement, equating to an ownership stake of about 4%. The transaction closed on December 26 following regulatory clearance earlier this month, including early termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period by the Federal Trade Commission.The investment was originally unveiled in mid-September as part of a broader partnership between the two long-time rivals, aimed at jointly developing custom products spanning data-centre infrastructure and PCs. For Intel, the deal lands alongside substantial external backing, following $8.9 billion in US government funding and a separate $2 billion investment from SoftBank, all part of a wider effort to stabilise and revitalise the chipmaker’s manufacturing and product roadmap.Market timing has worked decisively in Nvidia’s favour. Intel shares have rallied roughly 50% in recent weeks, leaving Nvidia’s $23.28 entry price well below prevailing market levels and implying an unrealised gain of close to $3 billion on paper. The discount also underscores the leverage enjoyed by Nvidia at a moment when it remains the central force in AI-driven computing.Intel has stressed that the private placement does not grant Nvidia any special governance or information rights beyond those of a standard shareholder. Still, symbolically, the investment represents a rare vote of confidence from the industry’s dominant AI player at a sensitive juncture for Intel’s turnaround story.Speaking at the original announcement, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang described the collaboration as a “historic partnership,” noting that joint architecture teams across CPUs, servers and PCs had been working together for more than a year. With the cash now on Intel’s balance sheet, investor focus is shifting from legal completion to execution — and whether the alliance can translate into tangible hardware and competitive momentum. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:China shipment data point to a sharp rebound in non-Chinese branded phones, boosting Apple’s implied market share.Premium demand appears resilient despite weak overall growth in China’s handset market.Regulatory risks persist, but brokers see iPhone momentum cushioning near-term pressure.A renewed surge in iPhone demand across China is reinforcing the bullish case for Apple Inc., with fresh data pointing to a sharp recovery in the company’s market share despite a broadly sluggish domestic handset market.Wells Fargo reiterated its Overweight rating on Apple and maintained a $300 price target, arguing that recent shipment trends signal improving momentum for the iPhone franchise in mainland China. Apple shares were recently trading around $273 (see attached chart screenshot), valuing the company at roughly $4.0 trillion.According to figures from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, shipments of non-Chinese branded smartphones, widely viewed as a proxy for iPhone demand, surged 128% year on year to 6.93 million units in November. Over the same period, Apple’s implied market share jumped to 22.4% from 10.6% a year earlier, even though overall smartphone shipments in China rose by just 2%.In contrast, shipments of Chinese-branded handsets declined 13%, highlighting a clear divergence between premium and mass-market demand. The data suggest Apple is continuing to capture share at the high end, even as price-sensitive consumers pull back amid slower economic growth.Wells Fargo said the figures point to strengthening iPhone momentum heading into 2026, helping offset concerns around regulatory pressure and longer-term competitive risks in the region.Other brokers echoed a cautiously constructive stance. Jefferies lifted its price target to $283.36 while retaining a Hold rating, citing improved hardware trends balanced against legal and policy headwinds. Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its Overweight view and raised its target to $315, arguing that sustained iPhone strength provides Apple with financial resilience as it navigates regulatory and operational challenges into 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Palladium futures had one of those sessions where the price action alone looks chaotic, but the order flow underneath tells a clearer story. Today’s move was not just a normal pullback. It behaved like a forced unwind that eventually transitioned into stabilization and early recovery, with a credible case that the session low near $1677 may hold as the day’s low.What happened today in Palladium, in plain EnglishPalladium gapped up at the weekly open. It wasn't the only precious metal to have its special bearish day. Risk on, you say? Nahh... Bitcoin also trapped some bulls and then sold off at 91k resistance, as our analysis mentioned. Then, a crazy move happened for Palladium. You know how most people consider a "correction" to be apx 20% down? Well, this special metal sold off over 21% in less than 17 hours. Crazy! Palladium sold aggressively into the $1700 psychological round number, and then pushed even lower to the $1677 area. That is the type of behavior you typically see when stops get triggered in clusters and liquidity becomes thin. After that flush, price began to recover, and importantly, the recovery was not only visible on the candles - it was confirmed by the internal pressure dynamics that most traders do not track.This is where orderFlow Intel adds real value.What orderFlow Intel saw that standard charts do not1) The “liquidation cascade” signatureAt the peak of the selloff, orderFlow Intel flagged a classic liquidation phase:A sharp volume expansion versus earlier barsA one-sided selling imbalanceA fast break through obvious reference points (like $1700) with little hesitationThat combination usually means sellers are not choosing to sell calmly - they are being forced to exit, or they are chasing downside liquidity. In those moments, the market often overshoots because bids get pulled and stops become market sells.This matters because liquidation phases often end with a “capitulation style” bar or sequence. The trap for retail traders is that the final push down looks like maximum bearish conviction, when in reality it can be seller exhaustion.2) Why $1700 mattered and why price went below it anywayRound numbers like $1700 attract liquidity. In commodities, they are natural areas for:stop-loss clusteringalgorithmic triggershedging flowsAfter exaggerated downside moves, it is common to see a stop hunt through the round number, followed by “dancing” around it as liquidity is harvested on both sides. That is exactly what today resembled: first the flush below, then the market shifting into a two-sided auction where the next move depends on whether sellers can regain control.3) The hidden shift: absorption turning into initiative buyingThis is the part most chart-only traders miss.After the flush, we saw multiple bars where price action was still weak or choppy, but the internal flow improved. In simple terms:Sellers kept trying to press, but price stopped falling at the same rate.Buyers began absorbing sell pressure without immediately lifting price.Then buyers finally became aggressive enough to lift offers and push price higher.This progression is important. A durable low is rarely a single candle event. It is usually a process: pressure fades, absorption appears, then initiative buying confirms. That is consistent with why $1677 is a reasonable candidate for the day’s low.Why $1677 stands out as the daily low candidateFrom an order-flow perspective, the $1677 area behaved like a “repair point” where the market stopped searching for lower prices and started rebuilding.What supports that idea:The selloff into that zone showed exhaustion characteristics after an already extended downside run.After that low was printed, the market began to trade more two-sided rather than continuing straight down.The subsequent recovery showed improving buy-side participation, meaning the rebound was not purely random.This does not guarantee the low will hold tomorrow. But for today’s session narrative, $1677 fits the profile of a liquidation low rather than just another waypoint lower.Key levels for Palladium futures that traders are likely to care about nextHere is the practical map to watch:Support zone: $1677 to the high $1600s If price loses this area decisively, the “daily low” thesis weakens and the market may continue searching lower.Round number pivot: $1700 Bulls typically want to hold above it. Bears want to push back below it to restart liquidation pressure.Recovery resistance: $1710 to the low $1700s This is where early recoveries often stall. If price holds above, it supports a continued repair rally.Next major magnet: mid $1700s (the heavy trade zone from the selloff) This is where selling may reappear because it is a prior high-volume area. Acceptance above it would be a stronger confirmation that the market is transitioning from “bounce” to “reversal.”What orderFlow Intel adds to Palladium technical analysis, beyond a standard recapMost recaps will say: “Palladium fell hard and bounced.” That is not enough for decision support.orderFlow Intel adds the missing layer:whether the move down was controlled selling or forced liquidationwhether buyers were absorbing quietly or absent entirelywhether the rebound is just short covering or early initiative buyingwhether the market is still trending or has shifted into a base-building auctionThat is why it helps traders avoid the two common mistakes:buying too early during liquidation because “it looks cheap”staying bearish too late after the market has already shifted internallyWhat's next for Palladium? Have we got a dip?Today’s drop into $1677 had the fingerprints of a liquidation-driven low followed by early recovery behavior. The market may still chop, and another test of the lows is always possible after a violent stop hunt. But based on the order flow evidence, $1677 is a credible candidate for the day’s low, and the next sessions will be defined by whether Palladium can hold above $1700 and build acceptance into the mid $1700s. Stay tuned for more at our Telegram channel https://t.me/investingLiveStocks and always trade and invest in precious metals at your own risk only. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview: Technology and Finance in FocusThe stock market today paints a somewhat mixed picture as observed through the heatmap, with a notable decline in semiconductor stocks. The semiconductor sector is glowing red with significant declines. Nvidia (NVDA) is leading the downturn, falling by 1.96%, while AMD and AVGO are also suffering losses at 2.35% and 1.46%, respectively. This trend hints at increasing caution or profit-taking among investors within the semiconductor space.On the flip side, the financial sector presents a more optimistic view. Visa (V) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) are both up by 0.28%, showing resilience. However, leading banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) are slightly negative, mirroring some hesitance or realignment in banking stocks.Market Mood and TrendsOverall, the market's mood appears cautious, as reflected in the uneven performance across different sectors. The fall of technology giants in the semiconductor sector may signal broader tech concerns. However, slightly positive movements in financials and consumer defensives like Apple (AAPL) and Procter & Gamble (PG) suggest a shift towards safer, more stable investments.Despite some turbulent areas, certain sectors like energy remain buoyant. ExxonMobil (XOM) is holding a positive territory with a 0.79% increase, reflecting ongoing confidence in oil and gas companies.Strategic RecommendationsGiven today's market snapshot, investors should monitor developments within the semiconductor and broader technology sectors closely. The current downward pressure might offer buying opportunities following further corrections. Moreover, maintaining or incrementing allocations in sectors like energy could benefit portfolios amidst market uncertainties.Meanwhile, those invested in financial stocks may want to hold or adjust their positions based on credit service gains to hedge against potential downturns. As volatility persists, seeking safety in stalwart sectors like defensive consumer goods and energy might provide steadier growth or income.For detailed updates and more insightful market analyses, traders and investors should keep visiting InvestingLive.com to stay ahead of market trends and dynamics. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Silver certainly got its moment in the spotlight last week as a parabolic move went stratospheric. The put silver on front pages around the world and prompted some hand-wringing from the world's richest man. There are rumors about squeezes and margin calls prompting the last leg of the move on Friday and now that air is coming out of the market. Silver is down $6.61/oz to $72.36. It's the largest one-day nominal fall ever, but amazingly, it still doesn't erase Friday's surge.Technically, the 38.2% retracement of the rally since November 21 is at $70.46 and that should lend some support. The 50% level clocks in at $66.31.Precious metals are a sentiment-driven market right now but the silver market is much smaller than gold. That gives retail an outsized influence compared to gold, which is largely driven by central bank buying and selling.Gold has also been hit by profit taking today but it's down 3% after also hitting record highs late last week. We're also in a tricky time of year for trading. Liquidity is low everywhere and that can lead to outsized swings as hedge funds are reluctant to lean against excesses and market makers limit participation. For the year ahead, the market appears to be tightly grasping onto the idea that Trump will nominate a dovish Fed member and continue to intervene in the economy in ways that makes the US dollar a less-attractive store of value. The gold rally really kicked off in late-August when he fired the head of the BLS -- the agency that publishes non-farm payrolls.He is also back to talking about the US taking over Greenland and the administration has pledged tariffs even if the Supreme Court blocks the current tariff regime. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Many thought Donald Trump's return to the White House would mainly boost cryptocurrencies, sending BTC/USD and the broader market to new highs. However, the reality has been somewhat different. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin prices have declined by more than 7%, although it reached a new all-time high in October.Stocks, meanwhile, have held up well despite unresolved trade wars and worries about inflation. The S&P 500 index, in particular, is up 17.2%, the Nasdaq is up 21.5%, the Dow Jones is up 14.1%, and the Russell 2000 is up 14.7%. Even IPOs throughout the year didn’t disappoint, benefiting both companies and investors.But the real stars of 2025 were metals, particularly precious metals.Gold rose by almost 69%, silver soared by 136%, platinum also surged by 136%, and palladium gained around 99%. These figures are truly astonishing, especially when we consider that we are not in a clearly “risk-averse” environment and that a recession does not appear imminent either globally or in the United States.In terms of driving factors, starting with gold, structural supply shortages played a key role. Investor demand surged on expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy, while central bank demand was driven mainly by geopolitical risks and growing distrust of the US dollar.The risk of a major correction can’t be ruled out after such a sharp rise. But central bank purchases are usually long-term and rarely reversed quickly. Investors may still hedge against a potential AI bubble, but even if that doesn’t happen, Fed rate cuts could weaken the dollar and continue to support gold.Silver’s rally had an extra boost from a short squeeze. With physical silver in short supply, traders betting on lower prices had to buy back metal to close their positions, pushing prices higher. At the same time, available inventories in London dropped sharply, while exchange stocks in Shanghai fell to a ten-year low.For platinum group metals, gains were driven by supply disruptions, tightening fundamentals, and strong industrial demand. Market momentum added to the effect: following the previous rally in gold, investors rushed to “catch up” by buying silver, platinum, and palladium, resulting in synchronized price rises.Beyond precious metals, copper has also grabbed attention recently. Prices surpassed $12,000 per ton for the first time amid concerns about reduced global supply, unexpected mine closures, and growing enthusiasm around copper's critical role in artificial intelligence-related infrastructure.What does the future hold?In the base scenario, silver supply is expected to decline further, while gold is likely to continue benefiting from central bank purchases in 2026. Copper’s outlook, in turn, is more mixed, as slower economic growth, market volatility, and political uncertainty could weigh on demand for industrial metals. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

As we look to wrap up 2025, the AI bubble just about managed to get away unscathed to end the year. That being said, there were rising concerns to deal with especially that on valuation. And in talking about that, it is fair to say that all of this will be a mainstay in the conversation for 2026. So the question is, have markets gotten too optimistic about the impact of AI? And are we going to see a reality check come next year?Well, it definitely is something worth thinking about and considering.The simple understanding of AI is that it boosts productivity by making processes more efficient and faster right. Let's take an intelligible example of making orange juice from the fruit itself. Yes, I love fruit examples. It always brings me back to this article here in explaining the whole LIBOR scandal back in the day.But yes, orange juice.Let's say you are someone who squeezes orange juice to sell, and one day you make it known that you are going to buy a high-tech and super-quick orange peeler and squeezer to get the juice ready to sell. People get excited about that and throw you $500 even though you only make like $5 in profits at the time.The people aren't fussed about the money today because they "believe" that with the new technology, you're going to revolutionise the world of selling orange juice.So, that's pretty much where we were or somewhat still are at in the whole AI bubble. The sense check hasn't quite happened yet but it's only a matter of time until questions are asked about the following:Is the new technology really that good?How has it really improved the efficiency and time cost of getting the orange juice ready for sale?Has it really helped to increase profit margin by a great amount?If you translate that to companies and firms that are knee deep in AI investment, these are all valid questions at some point. And that could be what investors are demanding next year.Before this, markets would cheer on AI investment and increased capital expenditure to be revolutionary. Now, doing so isn't anything new but instead it's rather commonplace instead.It's like having the new PlayStation 5 on release. You're the cool kid and everyone wants to hang out with you when you have it. But then when everyone else also starts to own it, what you have isn't anything different and people hang out at their own homes instead.And so the question then turns to how do you get the people i.e. investors to stay? What makes yours more "magical" and "special"? That is where the productivity conversation comes in.For Big Tech, that means the conversation isn't anymore about spending on AI. It's about who can actually use that correctly to reflect a better bottom line.For the likes of Google and Meta, it's all about translating that to ad revenue with the former also going to be scrutinised on their cloud business. And so far, they are two of the better ones that have an easier time to show how increased productivity and how that translates to earnings in general.Then you have the likes of Amazon and Microsoft, who both have laid out massive amounts of capital in trying to convince investors that they are keeping up in the AI game.Now, Amazon has committed the most in terms of capital expenditure on AI as compared to everyone else and one thing they are hiding behind for now is that their revenue stream and productivity gains are spread across multiple points. They have their warehouse technologies, robots, website, and cloud systems all layered with AI advancements. And so, the profits have to keep rolling in to convince investors against their big amount of money spent.That said, Amazon is also big enough to insulate themselves from risks of having to rely on chipmakers and external data centers. They do work to develop their own chips and are going big in expanding on the latter as well. I spoke about data centers and the importance of the fight for power last week here.As for Microsoft, it's quite straightforward with Copilot being their biggest push product offering. The proof will be in the numbers, that being how many people actually feel the need to sign up for AI software delivered by the firm. And personally speaking, I'm not a big fan with my own taste preference being to continue using Windows 10.And we can't talk about Big Tech without talking about the poster boy of the whole AI bubble now, can we? Nvidia has been the biggest name of them all during this run and is it time that the lofty expectations finally catch up to them?The Blackwell chip release shows that demand is still well outweighing supply. But if backlogs start to reduce and companies like Amazon and Microsoft also start developing their own AI ecosystem, that could be a troubling sign for Nvidia amid the pressure to constantly outperform and deliver well above what they are doing.Don't get me wrong. Nvidia is still a major cash cow and the biggest earner from the continued focus in the AI bubble. But are investor expectations too high that anything less than perfect will get punished? That will be interesting to see, especially with key risks from the China market that could provide some untimely headlines.But if all goes well for Jensen Huang and his company, they could be the first ever $5 trillion market cap stock. Or if you want to dream big, maybe even $10 trillion. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin Futures Technical Analysis Today: Range Pressure Builds Near 91,000 ResistanceWhen I look at the 30-minute time frame since December 11th, the story has been a step-like transition from a higher pricing zone into a more defined trading range. Price rotated around the mid area near 91,750, close to where the December 12 VWAP closed, and then shifted down into a range whose midpoint is closer to 88,500. We have largely been living inside that 88,500-centered regime since roughly December 14.For the year 2026, major banks predict Bitcoin will reach a six-figure price by 2026 as it moves from a risky experiment to a mainstream investment. This growth is driven by the ease of buying Bitcoin through regular stock accounts and the creation of clearer government rules that make big corporations feel safe investing. Additionally, as banks use Bitcoin's underlying technology to modernize traditional finance, the digital currency is expected to become a permanent and highly valuable fixture in the global economy. Ethereum's technology is also advancing and 2026 should be bullish, IMHO, for ETH, despite the last months' correction. But in today's bitcoin analysis, we are not looking that much ahead, and more looking at a very near resistance. Bitcoin technical analysis video before New Year's: Watch 91k-92kToday's range map for bitcoin futures This is still a range market first, trend market second.Range top resistance: ~91,000 This area matters because it lines up with the December 2 point of control and has acted as a recurring ceiling since December 14.Range floor support: ~85,800 That zone has repeatedly attracted responsive buying.With Bitcoin futures already up roughly 3% to 3.5% on the day, it is not surprising to see sellers leaning into the upper portion of the range again. In ranges, the market often punishes late momentum chasing near the edges.Key bullish pathway for BTCA bullish continuation case requires more than a quick poke above 91,000. The trigger is a sustained acceptance above 91,000, meaning price holds above it and does not snap back into the range.If that happens, the next upside magnets become:91,650: near the December 12 VWAP area92,600: just below the December 12 value area high regionFrom an orderFlow Intel perspective (without getting too granular), the earlier push did show buyer initiative. But the market needs to prove it can keep that initiative once it meets the supply sitting at the range highs.Key bearish pathway for BTCThe bear case is more immediate if the 91,000 area keeps rejecting price and the market fails to hold today’s developing balance.Levels that matter on the way down:90,650: developing point of control for today during this analysis90,100: a key reference tied to the December 12 value area low region89,925: today’s VWAP area89,350 to 89,400: a prior value reference zone88,900: December 25 value area high88,500: December 19 point of control87,875: recent value area low reference (Friday)87,000: broader range breakdown threshold (bigger bearish trigger)Order flow read on bitcoin futures today, so far: controlled weakness, not panicRecent order flow behavior suggests a subtle shift: after an initial burst of buying, upside momentum faded, and it started taking less participation to push price lower than it took to push price higher earlier. That is often an early warning of a bearish drift inside a range.Another important dynamic is that activity near recent lows looks somewhat unresolved. When an auction does not fully complete at a low, the market often revisits that area before a cleaner directional move develops. That creates a natural downside pull even without aggressive selling.tradeCompass-style execution note for a range regimeBecause we are still in a defined range with many nearby levels, traders typically treat targets as partial-profit zones rather than expecting one clean trend leg. If you are trading this as a range, consider taking partial profits into the first one or two targets and tightening risk. After TP2 is reached, move the stop to entry (breakeven) to protect gains and manage the runner. Read more about trading with the tradeCompass principles.Primary bias right nowSlightly bearish while below 91,000, mainly because the range ceiling is still doing its job and the order flow has cooled after the earlier push.This is a decision support tool, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Here is the expiries board for the remainder of the year. And as you would guess it, overall activity is rather sparse amid the lack of liquidity and interest during the holiday period. The only relevant one today is highlighted in bold below.But on a day like this, I wouldn't attach much significance - if at all - to the option expiries. Overall liquidity conditions is hampered by the holidays and traders have pretty much hung up their mice and keyboards for the year. So, it's a case of not needing to read too much into the market movements or the impact of the expiries in a time like this.The one for EUR/USD does sit close to the current spot price but I won't ascribe it to being one to pull price action or anything. Amid thin liquidity, it's a game of flows more than anything else.And the same will apply for the potential significance/impact of the expiries in the days to come as well. So, just keep that in mind yeah.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Musk flags silver supply (and price!) risks as China export curbs spark market concernPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.0331 (vs. estimate at 7.0057)China launches “Justice Mission 2025” drills simulating blockade around Taiwan (more info)BoJ signals more rate hikes ahead as policy seen far from neutral. JPY trades higher.Christmas Day/Boxing Day/Weekend:China to conduct live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan on December 30China flags more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 to boost domestic demandUkraine peace talks gain momentum as Trump and European leaders signal progressChina industrial profits slump at fastest pace in 14 months as demand weakensTrump: "Final stages of talking" on Ukraine-Russia dealOil drops again but OPEC’s market share war could create a generational buying opportunityMixed sector performances as tech and healthcare show gainsTokyo CPI eased in December but stayed above target, BOJ to stay on gradual rate hike pathBOJ’s Ueda sees wages and inflation reinforcing rate-hike case (Post when Ueda spoke on December 25)TL;DR summary:Silver hit fresh record highs above US$83 before a sharp pullback, with volatility driven by strong industrial demand and supply concernsElon Musk warned higher silver prices are problematic for industry, highlighting EVs’ heavy reliance on the metalChina industrial profits slumped 13.1% y/y in November, underscoring persistent deflation and “involution” pressuresBeijing signalled a more proactive fiscal stance in 2026, supporting consumption, innovation and growth near 5%USD/CNY fixing hit its strongest level since September 2024, while BoJ commentary kept further rate hikes in focusUkraine peace talks made incremental progress, while PLA drills around Taiwan kept geopolitical risk elevatedSilver was volatile to start the new week, surging to another record high above US$83 before sharply retracing below US$75. As of writing, prices have stabilised around the mid-range near US$80. The move drew broader attention over the weekend after Elon Musk weighed in on rising prices, warning: “This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes.”The concern is well-founded from an industrial perspective. Electric vehicles use roughly twice as much silver as internal combustion engine cars, with the metal critical for power electronics, inverters, high-voltage contacts and fast-charging systems due to its superior conductivity and reliability. The episode reinforces how sensitive silver has become to the electrification and AI capex cycles.China was also in focus over the weekend. Industrial profits fell 13.1% y/y in November, the sharpest decline in more than a year, as weak domestic demand and persistent deflation offset relatively resilient exports. The data underscore that “involution” pressures remain firmly in place, with firms still forced to compete aggressively on price and push excess supply offshore as the economy heads into 2026.Against that backdrop, China’s finance ministry said fiscal policy will be more proactive in 2026, with a renewed focus on boosting consumption, supporting innovation and strengthening the social safety net in an effort to sustain growth near 5%. The guidance helped lend some support to the AUD, while on Monday the People's Bank of China set the USD/CNY fixing at its strongest level since late September 2024. The yuan is strong while the PBoC seeks to stabilise the currency.The yen was another mover. USD/JPY dipped below 156.10 before rebounding back above 156.50. The Bank of Japan’s December Summary of Opinions showed policymakers remain confident that policy is still far from neutral, with several members backing steady further rate hikes to avoid falling behind the curve, even as real rates remain deeply negative. In the points above yopu'll see notes from Ueda's speech on Christmas Day and Tokyo inflation data published on December 26. Geopolitics also remained a bubbling risk. Ukraine peace talks showed further progress after constructive discussions involving Donald Trump, EU leaders and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, though unresolved territorial issues continue to limit any full “peace dividend” pricing. Meanwhile, China’s People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command launched a multi-day exercise around Taiwan dubbed “Justice Mission 2025,” featuring blockade-style operations and joint live-fire assaults, keeping regional geopolitical risk elevated. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) -0.31%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +0.42% Shanghai Composite +0.31%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.37%Bitcoin gained ground, up over 2.5% to above US$90K. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:Elon Musk flags concern over potential silver supply restrictionsSocial media claims point to tighter Chinese export controls from 2026Silver is critical for EVs, electronics and renewable technologiesChina dominates global silver supply chainsMarkets alert to parallels with rare earth export curbs-Silver prices have attracted renewed volatility after comments from Elon Musk highlighted concerns about supply risks tied to China, adding fuel to an already tightening narrative around industrial metals. Musk was responding to claims circulating on social media that silver prices are rising due to a severe global supply shortage linked to impending export restrictions by China. The posts argue that from January 1, 2026, Chinese authorities will require exporters of silver to obtain government licences, with eligibility limited to large, state-approved firms meeting strict production and financing thresholds. If implemented as described, the measures would effectively shut out smaller exporters and tighten the flow of Chinese silver into global markets.China plays an outsized role in global silver supply chains, with estimates suggesting it accounts for roughly 60–70% of production and processing capacity. Any tightening of export conditions would therefore have immediate implications for physical availability, particularly for industrial users reliant on steady supply rather than paper markets.In a brief comment, Musk warned that such developments are “not good,” noting silver’s importance across a wide range of industrial processes. The metal is critical for electronics, power transmission and renewable technologies due to its superior conductivity and reliability. Musk’s comments also carry a clear commercial context. Electric vehicles use substantially more silver than internal combustion engine vehicles, with applications spanning power electronics, inverters, high-voltage contacts and fast-charging systems. Companies like Tesla, along with broader EV and renewable energy supply chains, are therefore particularly sensitive to sustained increases in silver prices.For markets, the episode highlights the growing vulnerability of strategic industrial inputs to policy decisions in China. The parallels drawn with past restrictions on rare earth exports will resonate with investors, even if concrete details on silver policy changes remain limited. At this stage, the story appears driven more by anticipation than confirmed regulatory action.Nevertheless, with industrial demand for silver continuing to rise alongside electrification and renewable investment, even incremental supply constraints could have outsized price effects. As with other critical materials, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to official clarification from Beijing in the months ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.