The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:UK shop price inflation rose to 0.7% in DecemberFood inflation accelerated while non-food prices fellRetailers warn higher wages and regulation may keep prices stickyBusiness confidence improved but remains below averageCapex intentions rose to a 2.5-year highUK retailers raised prices at a faster pace in December and warn that further increases may be difficult to avoid in 2026, even as broader business confidence shows early signs of stabilisation, according to new industry data and corporate surveys released Tuesday.Figures from the British Retail Consortium showed annual shop price inflation edged up to 0.7% in December (0.6% expected) from 0.6% in November, remaining in line with its three-month average. While overall inflation remains modest, the composition of price pressures is becoming more concerning for policymakers.Food inflation accelerated to 3.3% year-on-year, up from 3.0% the previous month, reflecting ongoing cost pressures across supply chains. By contrast, prices for non-food items continued to fall, declining 0.6% annually, unchanged from November, as retailers used discounting to stimulate demand and clear inventories.BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said retailers would continue efforts to limit price rises, but warned that easing pressures from lower energy costs and improved crop conditions may be offset by rising policy-driven costs. She highlighted increasing regulation and higher labour expenses as key risks to keeping inflation contained.Those labour pressures are set to intensify in April, when the UK’s minimum wage rises by 4.1% to £12.71 an hour. Staffing costs have already been lifted by measures introduced in Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first budget in October 2024, adding to the challenge for price-sensitive sectors such as retail. The Bank of England is monitoring food prices closely, given their role in shaping household inflation expectations, even as headline CPI eased to 3.2% in November.Against that backdrop, separate survey data suggest corporate sentiment is improving slightly. A quarterly CFO survey from Deloitte showed the net balance of business optimism rose to -13% in Q4 from -24% in Q3, though confidence remains below historical averages. Deloitte’s chief economist Ian Stewart described sentiment as cautious but improving, noting reduced perceptions of external uncertainty and a modest pickup in risk appetite. Preliminary December PMI data from S&P Global echoed that view.Notably, the share of executives prioritising capital expenditure rose to a two-and-a-half-year high of 17%, signalling tentative willingness to invest. Still, the contrast between improving confidence and persistent cost pressures suggests UK firms face a difficult balancing act in 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:NVIDIA launches Rubin platform at CES 2026Vera Rubin superchip integrates CPU and dual GPUsPlatform targets agentic AI and MoE modelsDesigned for training and inference at scaleReinforces NVIDIA’s annual AI hardware cadenceAI hardware leader NVIDIA has formally lifted the curtain on its next-generation Rubin platform, announcing the launch of the Vera Rubin superchip during CES 2026 in Las Vegas. The new processor marks a significant step in the company’s accelerated computing roadmap and reinforces its strategy of delivering annual generational upgrades to meet surging AI demand.Vera Rubin is one of six chips that collectively make up the Rubin platform, which NVIDIA is positioning as its most advanced AI system architecture to date. The superchip integrates one Vera CPU with two Rubin GPUs into a single processor, reflecting NVIDIA’s continued emphasis on tight hardware co-design across compute, memory and interconnect. That approach has become a defining feature of the company’s AI offerings, enabling performance gains that go beyond incremental silicon improvements.NVIDIA is pitching the Rubin platform as purpose-built for the next wave of artificial intelligence workloads, particularly agentic AI, advanced reasoning models and mixture-of-experts (MoE) architectures. These models rely on routing tasks dynamically across specialised “expert” systems, placing heavy demands on compute efficiency, memory bandwidth and inter-chip communication. By combining multiple high-performance components into a unified superchip, Rubin is designed to accelerate both AI training and inference at scale.The timing of the launch underscores NVIDIA’s view that AI compute demand remains structurally strong. Speaking alongside the announcement, CEO Jensen Huang said Rubin arrives as demand for AI computing is “going through the roof,” spanning hyperscale data centres, enterprise deployments and increasingly complex model architectures. He framed the platform as a major leap forward enabled by NVIDIA’s rapid product cadence and deep integration across its silicon stack.CES has increasingly become a venue for NVIDIA to outline long-term strategic direction rather than simply showcase consumer-facing technology. The Rubin announcement fits that pattern, highlighting the company’s focus on AI infrastructure rather than end-user devices. It also reinforces NVIDIA’s ambition to remain at the centre of the global AI build-out, as governments, cloud providers and enterprises race to deploy more capable and efficient AI systems.With Rubin, NVIDIA is signalling that the next phase of AI growth will be driven not just by larger models, but by more sophisticated reasoning, orchestration and real-world deployment — workloads that demand an entirely new class of AI supercomputing platforms. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:US sets conditions for Venezuela’s interim leadershipDemands include drug crackdown and foreign expulsionsOil sales to US adversaries targetedFree elections expected eventually, but no timelineDeadlines described as flexibleThe Trump administration is pressing Venezuela’s interim leadership to adopt a series of pro-US policy shifts, signalling that cooperation with Washington will be a prerequisite for political survival. Politico with the info. According to officials familiar with the discussions, US authorities have communicated a clear set of expectations to Delcy Rodríguez, warning that failure to comply could invite consequences similar to those faced by her predecessor.US officials are said to be seeking at least three immediate actions. First, Washington wants Caracas to intensify efforts to curb drug trafficking flows linked to Venezuela, an issue that has long featured in US sanctions and security policy toward the country. Second, the administration is demanding the removal of Iranian, Cuban and other foreign operatives associated with governments or networks viewed as hostile to US interests. These actors are seen by Washington as entrenching anti-US influence in the region and undermining broader hemispheric security.A third requirement focuses on energy exports. US officials want Venezuela to halt oil sales to countries considered adversaries of Washington, a move that would represent a significant realignment of Caracas’s foreign and economic policy. Energy flows have been central to Venezuela’s geopolitical leverage, and curbing those exports would signal a decisive break from the previous administration’s strategy. I wonder if China is in Trump's classification of adversary?Beyond these initial steps, US officials expect Rodríguez, formerly Venezuela’s vice president and now serving as interim leader, to eventually facilitate a transition toward free and competitive elections and, in time, relinquish power. However, people familiar with the discussions stress that there is no fixed timetable for elections and that the administration is not signalling an imminent vote.Deadlines tied to the US demands remain deliberately flexible, reflecting both the fluid political environment in Venezuela and Washington’s desire to retain leverage. Officials emphasise that the current phase is about testing intent and direction rather than enforcing immediate outcomes.Taken together, the demands underline the Trump administration’s hard-line approach to Venezuela, combining security, energy and political objectives. The message to Caracas is that engagement with the US is possible, but only if it comes with a clear shift away from alliances and policies that Washington views as fundamentally hostile. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Morgan Stanley sees equity upside extending into 2026Six combined catalysts viewed as underpriced by marketsMid-teens EPS growth underpins bullish outlookEasier policy and deregulation support valuationsS&P 500 target set at 7,800Equity markets still have meaningful upside heading into 2026, according to strategists at Morgan Stanley, who argue investors are underestimating the combined impact of several powerful tailwinds supporting risk assets. Despite three consecutive years of strong equity returns, the bank believes the broader market is positioned for a continued rolling recovery rather than an imminent downturn.In a strategy note published Monday, chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson said that while individual bullish factors have been widely discussed, markets have yet to fully price in their cumulative effect. Taken together, these catalysts could extend the current cycle well into 2026, particularly if earnings momentum remains intact and monetary policy turns more supportive.1. The first and most important pillar is earnings. Morgan Stanley expects mid-teens earnings-per-share growth in 2026, a pace consistent with historically strong equity performance. That outlook underpins the bank’s confidence that valuations can remain elevated without triggering a broad de-rating.2. Deregulation is another key tailwind, especially for financials. Wilson highlighted upcoming changes to bank capital rules, including the finalisation of the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, which analysts believe could unlock a significant improvement in bank capital productivity. That, in turn, may support higher returns on equity and increased shareholder distributions across the sector.3. Monetary policy also features prominently. Morgan Stanley forecasts the 10-year US Treasury yield will fall below 3.75%, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates in January and April. The resumption of short-term bond purchases further reinforces an accommodative policy backdrop, historically a positive signal for risk assets.4. Artificial intelligence adoption remains a structural driver. Internal analysis suggests a growing share of businesses are already reporting improved profit margins from AI deployment, strengthening the case that productivity gains are translating into real earnings growth rather than remaining a long-term promise.5. Macro factors add further support. The bank expects oil prices and the US dollar to continue easing, which would lower fuel costs for consumers and lift earnings for globally exposed companies. With roughly 30% of S&P 500 revenues generated overseas, currency effects could provide a material boost.6. Finally, Wilson argues valuations still have room to expand. He points to historically favourable conditions for multiple expansion, a valuation gap between median stocks and index heavyweights, and improving growth revisions among mega-cap technology firms.Sector-wise, Morgan Stanley favours financials, healthcare, consumer discretionary, industrials and small-cap stocks. For broad exposure, the bank reiterated a 2026 S&P 500 target of 7,800, implying double-digit upside from current levels. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Tom Lee says Bitcoin has not yet peakedNew all-time highs possible as early as January2026 seen as volatile first half, stronger second halfEthereum described as undervalued entering a supercycleS&P 500 forecast to reach 7,700 by end-2026Bitcoin has not yet reached its cycle peak and could print a new all-time high as soon as this month, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee, who reiterated his bullish stance on digital assets and equities during an appearance on CNBC Squawk Box.Lee said recent weakness across crypto markets should not be interpreted as a definitive top. While he acknowledged that earlier expectations for a late-2025 breakout proved premature, he argued that price action remains consistent with a broader uptrend. In his view, investors should not assume that Bitcoin, Ethereum or the wider digital-asset complex has already peaked.The comments follow a sharp pullback into year-end 2025, with Bitcoin retreating from an October record above $126,000 to around $88,500 by December 31, according to CoinDesk. Lee positioned January as a potential inflection point, describing the correction as part of a broader consolidation phase after several years of outsized gains.Looking ahead, Lee characterised 2026 as a “two-speed” year for crypto markets. He expects the first half to be volatile, driven by institutional portfolio rebalancing and what he described as a strategic reset across risk assets. That process, however, is not seen as a sign of structural weakness. Instead, Lee argued that such periods of turbulence historically lay the groundwork for stronger advances later in the cycle, with a more powerful rally emerging in the second half of the year.Lee was particularly constructive on Ethereum, describing it as significantly undervalued and entering a multi-year expansion phase similar to Bitcoin’s 2017–2021 cycle. Despite missing earlier price targets, he has reinforced that view through balance-sheet positioning. His crypto-focused firm, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, has continued to accumulate ether, framing exposure as a strategic treasury decision rather than a speculative trade.Beyond digital assets, Lee extended his bullish outlook to equities. He forecast the S&P 500 could climb to 7,700 by the end of 2026, citing resilient corporate earnings and productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence. Any near-term pullbacks, he said, should be viewed as opportunities rather than warnings. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The data agenda is a bit boring ...But, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang is about to take the stage at CES in Las Vegas, where markets will be listening closely for signals on the next phase of accelerated computing and artificial intelligence. His keynote follows a one-hour pregame show focused on AI infrastructure, open ecosystems and so-called “physical AI”, a framing that hints at NVIDIA’s push beyond pure software models and into real-world, industrial and autonomous applications.CES has increasingly become a platform for Huang to outline NVIDIA’s longer-term strategic vision rather than near-term product launches. In recent years, those addresses have focused on the convergence of data-centre scale computing, AI model training and inference, networking, and software platforms that lock customers into an end-to-end ecosystem. That theme is expected to continue, with NVIDIA positioning accelerated computing as the backbone for everything from cloud services and enterprise AI to robotics, automotive systems and digital twins.A key area of focus is likely to be AI infrastructure. NVIDIA has spent the past several years redefining what a modern data centre looks like, shifting it from CPU-centric computing to GPU-accelerated, network-intensive systems optimised for AI workloads. That transformation has driven a wave of investment by hyperscalers, governments and large enterprises, and Huang is expected to reinforce the idea that AI demand remains structural rather than cyclical.The mention of open ecosystems also matters. NVIDIA has been careful to balance its dominant hardware position with messaging around interoperability, partnerships and software frameworks that allow customers and developers to scale AI without being constrained by a single use case. Expect commentary around platforms that support model deployment, inference at the edge, and integration with existing enterprise systems.Finally, “physical AI” is likely to be a central narrative. This refers to AI systems that interact with the real world — robotics, autonomous vehicles, industrial automation and simulation. Huang has previously described this as the next major growth frontier, where AI moves from digital outputs to physical action.Taken together, the CES address is less about a single announcement and more about reinforcing NVIDIA’s role at the centre of the global AI build-out, at a time when governments, corporates and investors are increasingly focused on how and where the next wave of AI-driven productivity gains will emerge. Watch: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

If you look at the rundown of the S&P 500 today, the best performers are energy companies and it's no surprise why. Many had exposure to Venezuela and many others are likely to be tapped if/when Venezuelan oil is given back to US companies.Here are the nine biggest winners:Slumberger (SLB): +11.97%Valero Energy (VLO): +10.74%Halliburton (HAL): +11.18%Phillips 66 (PSX): +7.83%Marathon Petroleum (MPC): +7.08%Chevron (CVX): +5.81%Baker Hughes (BKR): +5.73%ConocoPhillips (COP): +3.96%Exxon Mobil (XOM): +2.59%In terms of market cap, that's a $62.8 billion one day gain.Also note the curious rally on Friday.I would caution that profiting from Venezuelan oil is going to be a monumental task. The crude is locked up deep into the mountainous country and the original infrastructure that produced 3 million barrels per day (now less than 1 mbpd) is dilapidated or destroyed.In order to extract real value from Venezuela oilsands, it will need to be completely rebuilt, including the transportation, upgrading and export facilities. That could take on the magnitude of a $500 billion investment, in a region that isn't exactly going to be instantly-friendly with the United States.I'm skeptical that money is ever going to come, though I'm sure there are some smaller wins available.My guess is that there is some irrational exuberance in some of these names that is going to fade in the coming days. These are not shale oil wells, they're mega-projects that take nearly a decade to come online and produce for decades afterwards. It's not like shale oil where you can drill a well and you get a 4-month payout. The flipside of this drop is that Canadian oilsands names are getting beaten up but I just don't see why a company would invest in Venezuela rather than Canada, which has long-term stability and oil that's not quite and heavy or with as much heavy metals. In short, these moves are a fade. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Trump administration today said it had no talks with US oil majors about Venezuelan oil before or after the attacks and capture of Maduro (that's hard to believe) but will speak to them later this week.There has been plenty of breathless commentary about Venezuela's huge oil reserves but they're mostly a mirage. Here is a quick rundown on how it works from famed oil investor John Arnold:Investors: JPMorgan says Venezuela has largest oil reserves JPM: That comes from an OPEC report OPEC: Our members self-report. Ask Venezuela Venezuela: We get that from PDVSA PDVSA: Hugo Chavez told us years ago to report that for prestige & now we'd look bad if we lowered itGoldman Sachs is out with a note today trying to make sense of the chaos.The main takeaway? It’s complicated right now, but if the US gets the taps open, it’s going to weigh on prices down the road.Here are the highlights from the note:Trump said the US will “get the oil flowing the way it should be” but GS notes that the embargo remains in full effect for now.Venezuela produced 0.93mb/d in November 2025, but GS suspects that has slipped to ~0.8mb/d recently due to production shut-ins and a lack of storage space.Imports of Venezuelan crude by other countries are down about 0.4mb/d year-over-year.Goldman outlines two main scenarios for WTI and Brent through 2026:The Bearish Case (Production Rises): If we get a US-supported government, repairs to wells, and an embargo removal, production could rise by 0.4mb/d. That puts Brent/WTI at $54/50 in 2026, which is $2 below their base case.The Bullish Case (Disruption Continues): If Maduro’s cabinet digs in or infrastructure fails further, production drops by 0.4mb/d. That pushes Brent/WTI to $58/54, or $2 above the base case.The Long Run ViewLooking further out, Goldman sees this as a net negative for oil prices. Venezuela sits on the world’s largest proven reserves. Even though the infrastructure is degraded—and GS highlights it will take serious time and money to fix the upgraders and power availability—the potential is massive.They estimate that if Venezuela manages to ramp production to 2mb/d by 2030, it represents $4 of downside to their 2030 base case Brent forecast of $80. Although Venezuela produced ~3mb/d at its peak in the mid-2000s and holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, we believe that any recovery in production would likely be gradual and partial as the infrastructure is degraded and would require strong incentives for substantial upstream investment. Higher recovery rates of heavy Venezuela oil will likely require financial and time investments in oil-processing upgraders and improvements in operational efficiencies, power availability, and oil transporting infrastructure.I would be surprised if they can boost production that much, that quickly under any circumstances. It's also imprtant to note that we're talking about 1.1mbpd of incremental production in a world market that's using around 105mbpd. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Are financials the hidden AI trade?Or maybe not so hidden given the performance in 2025 and so far this year. The XLF financials ETF rose 13.6% led by a 23.2% return from Wells Fargo and a 21.4% return from JPMorgan Chase. A smaller holding in the ETF was Citigroup, which was up more than 70%.The market spent 2025 obsessed with "who builds the chips." In 2026, the trade is moving to "who uses the chips to fire people." Financials will be early adopters of AI technology and that could be a big tailwind for profitability. The XLF is up 2.7% today. Banks have the two things AI needs to be profitable: Massive, messy data and expensive, repetitive labor. Citi’s own research indicates that roughly 54% of roles in banking are at risk of being displaced by AI. If Citi were to cut 20-25K employees from its 230K headcount (about 10%) that would save around $2.5 billion per year, or a 12-14% in post-tax EPS.There may also be upshots in lending and risk management. If banks can more-accurately determine who is likely to be a good/bad borrower then it could lead to far-more profitable lending.There could be similar improvements in insurance and capital markets.The risk right now is that markets are over-pricing in the improvement in profitability without pricing in the downside risks to lending into a broader economy that may find ways to cut 10-20% of broader employment due to AI and robotics. Rising unemployment won't be a boon for bank loans or profitability.For now, we're on the part of the curve where all the upsides are priced in and that's likely to continue in 2026, particularly in some of the names that were cheaper coming into the year. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Venezuela itself has been largely compartmentalized. The market has been sniffing out attacks in Venezuela and potential regime change for awhile. There are still some really big questions about who is in charge and what the path is going forward but Venezuela itself is a small economy and even the oil impacts are small.What's notable is after the initial risk move, the US dollar is now slumping. It's still a small move and goes alongside some strong gains in global equities. So likely this is the usual risk-positive USD slump.The thing about Venezuela and how the US just got away with a blatant violation of international law and norms with basically no pushback from the rest of the world.For the US dollar, this changes the equation about 'what's next'.Within hours of abducting Venezuela's leader, US officials were talking about regime change in Cuba and Columbia. Trump himself said the US needed Greenland for 'national security'.Trump was also parading around with a hat saying "Make Iran Great Again".Greenland in particular is sticky for Europe, as it's part of Nato. There would have to be repercussions in trade and the entire defense system. In terms of markets, these systems go hand-in-hand with US dollar dominance. If we take away the US from the center of the global free-market system, then what is the system? The US already seized Russia's dollar assets and now it's getting more adventurous. That's a big reason why gold went parabolic in the past year and is up 2.5% today.In terms of today's price, the US dollar climbed early in the day but has since reversed course and is at the lows of the day. What's important to remember is that US dollar usage globally was maxed out. China, Middle Eastern countries and countries unfriendly with the US have every reason now to de-dollarize. Even Denmark now has to question whether it should continue to hold US dollars? The country holds $91.8 billion in foreign exchange reserves and the composition is confidential but USD reserves hare likely the majority. Why not swap those to euros, pounds and gold instead? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the Trump administration over the weekend has thrown a massive geopolitical wrench into the energy markets. While the knee-jerk reaction for crude traders might be to bid up prices on uncertainty, the analysts at Scotiabank are warning that the trade isn't that simple.Scotiabank's Global Equity Research team characterizes the development as "mixed" for the oil market. In the immediate term, you might see oil prices tick higher as the market digests the chaos and potential security vacuum in Caracas. That's happened today with WTI crude up $0.89 to $58.26. The analysts note that unless the new government can quickly secure the streets, production growth will be extremely limited and could even fall if violence breaks out. However, the longer-term view is decidedly bearish for crude. They see this as the inverse of the 1999 Chavez election, potentially opening a new chapter where a pro-Western Venezuela ramps up output and complicates OPEC’s ability to manage prices.Scotia write:"Venezuela will need a colossal amount of funding to rebuild, with oil the country’s only viable source of funds. As a result, regardless of who is in charge of the new government, boosting oil production will be its highest priority. Similar to Libya and Iraq, we expect Venezuela will be exempted from any OPEC quota in the coming years. In our base case, we think production will begin to rise in 2027 or 2028, and could reach 2 mmbbl/d by early 2030s. However, actual pace of production growth will greatly depend on the security situation on the ground"I think that's optimistic but for today's price action, there are big moves in oil producers. For equity traders, Scotiabank identifies a very specific hierarchy of winners, and ConocoPhillips (COP) is sitting at the top of the list. The bank views COP as the biggest potential near-term beneficiary because of the company's massive outstanding claims against the country. Following the 2007 nationalization of their assets, COP is owed approximately $11 billion. If a pro-Western government takes the reins, Scotiabank believes COP could recoup up to $10 billion and potentially rejoin key projects like Hamaca and Petrozuata, which could net them over 100,000 barrels per day of production.The outlook is murkier for the other majors. Chevron (CVX) is the only US major that never left the country, which might seem like an advantage, but Scotiabank warns this could actually complicate relationships with a new administration that might view them as having been too cozy with the previous regime. Exxon Mobil (XOM) has outstanding claims of roughly $1.6 billion, but relative to the size of the company, the potential upside is considered small.There is also a cautionary note for Canadian energy investors. Venezuela sits on massive reserves of extra-heavy oil. If production eventually ramps up, it will likely flood the US Gulf Coast with heavy barrels, competing directly with Canadian exports. Scotiabank points out that this could widen the light/heavy oil differential, which would be a headwind for Canadian large caps like Cenovus (CVE), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) and Imperial Oil (IMO) that have significant exposure to heavy oil prices.We are seeing the Canadian names beaten up in today's price action.Today’s Percentage MovesConocoPhillips (COP): +1.94%Chevron (CVX): +4.39%Exxon Mobil (XOM): +1.22%Cenovus (CVE): −8.50%Imperial Oil (IMO): −4.94%Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ): −7.37% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 48.2Prices paid 58.5 vs 57.0 expected (58.5 prior)Employment 44.9 vs 44.0 priorNew orders 47.7 vs 47.4 priorA miserable year for US manufacturing ends with some extra disappointment. This is the lowest reading since November 2024.The new orders reading was a slight improvement but still deeply in contractionary territory. The promises of tariffs aren't paying off as companies are reluctant to invest in long-term production given the uncertainty of the legality and staying power of tariffs. Moreover, consumers are unwilling to buy expensive US-built consumer products rather than foreign imports. The prices paid component rising is ominous but it's still well-below the 69-level from the peak of mid-2025. I suspect that falling oil prices are a big part of that but that's something that won't last.On the macro side, the hangover from the post-covid spending spree continues and lower US rates don't appear to be offering a boost yet. That could change as time goes on but a lot will need to go right to make US manufacturing work again.Comments in the report are dire:“Winding up the year with mixed results. It has not been a great year. We have had some success holding the line on costs; however, real consumer spending is down and tariffs are ultimately to blame. I hope for some return to free trade, which is what consumers have ‘voted for’ with their spending.” [Chemical Products]“Trough conditions continue: depressed business activity, some seasonal but largely impacted by customer issues due to interest rates, tariffs, low oil commodity pricing and limited housing starts.” [Machinery]“Things are quieter regarding tariffs, but prices for all products remain higher. Our costs have increased, so we have increased prices for our customers to compensate. Margins have deteriorated, as full pass through (of cost increases) is not possible.” [Computer & Electronic Products]“Things are not improving in the transportation equipment market. Many customers are ordering for 2026, but those orders are 20 percent to 30 percent below their historical buying patterns. Some large fleets are still completely on hold for 2026, with zero capital expenditures money available to fleet budgets. Truck rental utilization, which is a good benchmark for the health of the economy, is still below historically stable levels. The general mood of the industry is that the first half of 2026 will be another bust, and we’re now hoping things pick up in the second half, even as the North American truck fleet continues to age.” [Transportation Equipment]“In the current environment, our company is struggling with customer orders and financially overall. Our senior leaders are struggling to focus our business and get the company on track with quality products. In November, layoffs impacted about 9 percent of our workforce, affecting all locations in the U.S. and Europe.” [Machinery]“Orders continue to drop for most of our businesses. Many plants are not running near full capacity. Make to order being utilized where possible.” [Chemical Products]“Order levels have continued to decline: We had a bad October, an awful November and a dismal December. January and February don’t look too good, as bookings are down 25 percent compared to the first two months of 2025.” [Fabricated Metal Products]“Morale is very low across manufacturing in general. The cost of living is very high, and component costs are increasing with folks citing tariffs and other price increases. It’s cold in our area of the country, absenteeism is worse around the holidays, and sales were lower than we expected for November. So, things look a bit bleak overall.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]“Global logistics remains sensitive to geopolitical shifts. Tariffs are influencing equipment pricing and procurement strategies. Large-scale data center programs are absorbing and reducing availability of resources for other sectors.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]“2025 revenue was down 17 percent due to tariffs. The lost revenue has inhibited our ability to offer bonuses to employees or create and hire for new positions.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing] This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

? Sector OverviewToday's stock market heatmap reveals a vibrant display of mixed performances across various sectors. Notably, the technology sector is exhibiting impressive gains, driven in large part by semiconductor stocks. In contrast, the healthcare sector appears to be underperforming, reflecting a downturn in market sentiment within this space.? Semiconductor Surge: Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) leads the pack with a robust increase of 2.35%, followed closely by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) at 3.90%. The enthusiasm in semiconductor stocks is likely tied to growing demand in tech advancements and automation, encouraging investor optimism.? Consumer Cyclical & Auto Manufacturing: Amazon (AMZN) shows a positive climb of 0.63%, reaffirming confidence in consumer cyclical stocks. Tesla (TSLA) also accelerates by 1.97%, spotlighting growth in the auto manufacturing sector.? Financial Sector Stability: Financial stalwarts like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) are witnessing modest gains of 0.63%, with Citigroup (C) also making headway at 0.94%.? Healthcare Sector Struggles: With Lilly (LLY) down by 0.59%, healthcare stocks are experiencing a subdued performance, possibly due to regulatory concerns or sector-specific challenges.? Market Mood and TrendsOverall, today's market conveys a sentiment of cautious optimism, especially with the tech-heavy sectors lively with activity. The noticeable uptick in semiconductor investments signifies a possible shift toward innovation and digital transformation that could shape future market dynamics.Conversely, the underwhelming performance in healthcare stocks might suggest investor hesitance amid ongoing regulatory reviews or market pressures.? Strategic RecommendationsGiven the current market trends and sector analysis, investors might consider the following strategies to optimize their portfolios:⚙️ Leverage Tech Opportunities: With semiconductors displaying robust growth, this sector could be ripe for continued investments. Consider exploring stocks such as NVDA and AMD.? Monitor Healthcare Developments: Keep a close watch on healthcare stocks for potential recovery signals or new regulatory news. Strategically adjust holdings to mitigate exposure.? Diversify Across Sectors: Diversification remains crucial, especially amid mixed signals in different sectors. A balanced portfolio can help navigate the unpredictable trading landscape.Stay informed with the latest market insights and data at InvestingLive.com for expert analyses that guide your investment decisions in these dynamic times. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The long-term copper trade is one I've been banging the drum on since at least 2022 and as you look at the longer-term supply gap, this is the year when it really starts to open up and that will be especially true with the massive Grasburg mine mostly curtailed due to last year's tragic mudslide.On Friday, Union #2 at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde walked off the job on a strike after mediation failed. The mine is running at ~30% capacity as the strike involves roughly half the workforce.While Mantoverde isn't a behemoth on the scale of Escondida or Grasberg, headline risk is headline risk. In a market that is already hypersensitive to supply-side shocks (thanks to the massive Indonesian outages), losing any fresh tonnage adds fuel to the bullish fire. Reports cite expected production of 29–32k tons for the affected period/year, though the recent sulphide expansion was designed to push total longer-term output significantly higher and that could slow depending on the length of the strike.That compares to the approx 270K tons forecast to be offline at Grasberg all year but it's still missing marginal supply in a tight market. As for Grasburg, the forecast is still for a gradual return starting in Q2.Notably, the strike is in the Atacama region of Chile and that is adjacent to the Antofagasta region, which is the global heavyweight of copper production, including the world's largest mines. Labor dissatisfaction could highlight a broader push for higher wages and more disruptions. This year is scheduled to be a bit of a nightmare with give separate union contracts set to expire at Chile's state-run Codelco, with part of the demands around safety (and slower production). There are also currently difficult negotiations going on at Centinela while Anglo American's Los Bronces faces tough negotiations later this year.In terms of the technicals, there is nothing standing in the way for further gains. The measured target from the 2022-2025 range is upwards of $16,000. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was on CNBC today with a mix of comments that lean into the soft-landing narrative, though he’s flashing a warning sign on jobs. Inflation is slowly trending down Not concerned about risk of Fed bank presidents being firedWould love to see Powell remain as a colleague for as long as he likesHave no idea if Powell stays on after Chair term endsMy expectation is low hiring but low firingWage growth is slowly tending downLot of confidence housing services inflation is coming downExpect economy to remain resilientInflation is slowly trending downThere is a risk the unemployment rate can pop from hereMy guess is we're close to neutral nowInflation is still too highJob market is clearly coolingLower-to-middle income anxiety is about inflationK-shaped economy rings trueAI is a story for big companies, not small ones from what I hearWe're approaching a kind of equilibrium on the tariff frontWhile he notes "low hiring but low firing," he explicitly flagged a risk that the unemployment rate could "pop" from here. He sees the market as "clearly cooling" with wage growth trending down.He also waded into an interesting debate on Powell, who has the option to stay on as a Fed governor after his term ends. He floated some soft support, though said he has 'no idea' if that's the plan.Fed funds pricing is just over 50% for a cut at the March 18 meeting, while a pause in January is largely priced in. A total of 58 bps of easing is priced in for the year ahead. There's been no market reaction to these headlines and today's trading will largely be driven by flows as the new year really kicks off. The highlight on today's economic calendar is the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 am ET (1500 GMT). This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US Dollar enters the first full trading week of the year with a mixed performance across the major pairs. While the greenback has gained 0.32% against the Euro, it has softened against the Japanese Yen (-0.16%) and the British Pound (-0.06%) as the North American session begins.In the featured video above, Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends, provides a deep-dive technical analysis into the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD to help traders navigate these early-week shifts.Equities: Energy and Tech Lead Premarket GainsUS stock indices are showing resilience this morning, driven by a combination of geopolitical developments and continued momentum in the semiconductor space.Index Futures PerformanceS&P 500: +20.53 pointsNASDAQ: +176.00 pointsDow Jones Industrial Average: -20.39 pointsThe "Venezuela Effect" on EnergyEnergy giants are seeing significant premarket buying interest following the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s leader. Markets are pricing in the potential easing of sanctions, which could grant U.S. firms access to massive oil reserves.Safe Havens and CommoditiesDespite a slight dip in crude prices earlier today, gold and silver remain well-supported as investors hedge against geopolitical uncertainty.Gold: Trading at $4,414.07 (up 1.91%). Investors are eyeing the all-time high of $4,550.52 reached last week.Silver: Trading at $75.00 (up 3.00%), recovering from a mid-week dip to $70.Crude Oil: Currently higher by $0.36 at $57.68, rebounding from a daily low of $56.31.Gold miners like Newmont (+2.0%) and Barrick Gold (+1.80%) are benefiting from this "flight to safety."Technology and Crypto MomentumThe AI and semiconductor narrative continues to provide a floor for the NASDAQ. AMD (+2.77%), Nvidia (+1.4%), and Broadcom (+1.32%) are all trending higher.In the crypto space, Bitcoin has advanced by $1,269 (1.40%) to reach $92,770, providing a tailwind for Coinbase, which is up 4.59% in early trading.Fixed Income: Yields SoftenIn the U.S. debt market, Treasury yields are seeing a modest decline across the curve:2-year yield: 3.465% (-1.2 bps)10-year yield: 4.173% (-1.6 bps)30-year yield: 4.862% (-0.2 bps)Economic Data: ISM Manufacturing PMIToday's economic prints suggest the manufacturing sector remains in a contractionary phase (below the 50.0 threshold), though some stabilization is evident.ISM Manufacturing PMI: 48.4 (Slightly above the prior 48.2)ISM Prices Paid: 57.0 (Down from 58.5, suggesting easing inflation)ISM Employment: 44.0 (Signals continued pressure on labor)ISM New Orders: 47.4 (Demand remains weak) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:China and Russia response the next thing to watch on the Venezuela situationOil prices fall as US captures Maduro, Trump orders companies to restore Venezuela's oilChina responds to Venezuela situation, urges for immediate release of MaduroGold Technical Analysis: Venezuela events pushed prices up but US NFP the next risk eventDollar holds firmer as we officially get the new year underwayUSD/JPY pares gains, turns lower on the day with bigger range still in playDAX Technical Analysis: The German stock market touches a new all-time high, breakout eyedThe 1st Bitcoin Technical Analysis of Year 2026 and Bulls are Back.UK net mortgage approvals fell slightly in NovemberSwitzerland December manufacturing PMI 45.8 vs 49.7 priorMarket outlook for the week of 5th-9th JanuaryMarkets:JPY leads, EUR lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%US 10-year yields down 2.2 bps to 4.167%Gold up 1.9% to $4,413.49WTI crude oil up 0.8% to $57.80Bitcoin up 1.4% to $92,781The US attack on Venezuela and capturing of Nicolás Maduro continues to be the main highlight since the weekend. But in terms of market reaction, there hasn't been all too much drama.Oil prices were sent for a ride with WTI crude sliding to $56.40 earlier on before recovering back the early losses to be up slightly at $57.80 now. Meanwhile, precious metals continue to rally hard in a continuation from the December mood as both gold and silver surged higher during the session. Start of the year market flows are definitely a factor here but geopolitical tensions so early in 2026 is definitely another key driver in helping to underpin precious metals.Besides that, the dollar was also more bid on early safety flows but the gains have been easing a little now as the dust settles down. EUR/USD is still keeping lower by 0.3% to 1.1680 as the euro continues to lose ground since last week. Meanwhile, USD/JPY has dropped off from 157.30 to 156.60 now as the dollar gains ease up.GBP/USD is also back near unchanged levels around 1.3465 after having fallen to 1.3415 earlier in the day while AUD/USD is down only 0.2% to 0.6680, off earlier lows of 0.6665.In the equities space, stocks aren't at all perturbed by the whole situation with European indices pushing gains on the day. Much of the early rally has dissipated though, so that's something to be mindful about. The DAX had earlier touched a fresh record high at the open, being up 1% but has now dropped to hold gains of around 0.5% on the day.Looking at US futures, the mood music is still more positive with S&P 500 futures up 0.3%. The more optimistic risk sentiment is also reflected in Bitcoin with the cryptocurrency pushing back above $92,000 to start the week. Punchy. ? There wasn't any significant headlines in Europe to distract from the whole Venezuela situation. So, expect markets in US to stick to that as well with the other focal points this week being on start of the year positioning flows and the US non-farm payrolls on Friday.On the former, we're already seeing commodities light up with precious metals rallying strongly. Gold is up near 2% to $4,413 with the high earlier touching $4,439. Meanwhile, silver is not relenting in a push to $74.65 currently - up close to 3% on the day. The high for silver earlier touched $76.35. Burnin' up. ? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:US dollar erased the Christmas week lossesThe Fed is still expected to cut at least twice this year, while the ECB is seen on holdEURUSD pulled back to a key support zone around the 1.1670 levelEurozone CPI and US NFP in focus this weekFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The greenback weakened across the board during the Christmas week but eventually recovered most of the losses. The price action during Christmas holidays is generally just noise, so it’s not surprising that most markets returned to original levels.In terms of macro, nothing has changed in these two weeks. The latest NFP and CPI reports came both on the softer side and the market is still pricing 63 bps of easing by year-end. The data in December was taken with a pinch of salt given the shutdown related issues, but the next releases will give us a clearer picture. The market expects the Fed to cut in March at the earliest, so we will need very soft data this month to force them to act sooner. Nonetheless, if the data continues to come in on the softer side, the market will likely increase the total easing for 2026 and that should weigh on the US dollar.On the other hand, if the data shows strength, traders will likely pare back their rate cut bets and that will likely offer the greenback some support.EUR:On the EUR side, the ECB remains in a neutral stance reaffirming its data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to policy decisions. ECB members have repeatedly said that the current policy is appropriate, and they won’t respond to small or short-term deviations from their 2% target. Moreover, they added that the next moves could be either a cut or a hike. The data has been supporting the central bank’s neutral stance.This week we have the Eurozone CPI data as a key risk event for the single currency. The market might be fine as long as inflation stays below 2.5%, but above this level, traders could start pricing in higher chances of a rate hike coming earlier than expected.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD pulled back into the key support zone around the 1.1670 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 1.19 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 1.14 handle.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke below the upward trendline recently and led to deeper pullback. The price now sits at the key support where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. This should give the buyers more conviction to step in around these levels with a defined risk below the support to target new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into new lows.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is trading at the lower bound of the average daily range for today. This suggests that it’s unlikely that we will see a break to the downside today and the price might either consolidate here or pull back into the minor downward trendline around the 1.1730 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to target a break below the key support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.19 handle next.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we get the inflation reports for the major European economies. On Wednesday, we have the Eurozone Flash CPI, the US ADP, the US ISM Services PMI and the US Job Openings data. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The immediate reaction in markets to the whole Venezuela situation was reflected in oil prices earlier today. But as we have always seen in the past, geopolitical tensions tend to fade and so does the initial market reaction to it. So in looking out to the big picture and what this whole ordeal might entail, I would say it really depends on how China and Russia respond instead.The world knows that Venezuela is a gold mine in terms of oil reserves (and also actual gold). It is just that political instability and sanctions have made it tough for the country to really do anything about that. However, the thing about Venezuela is that it not only represents oil market security for China and Russia. It is more than that.For China, Venezuela represents a strategic point in Latin America - one that they can buy their way in and benefit from it. China has put in billions in terms of infrastructure investments, all in hope of securing long-term leverage and dropping an anchor on oil reserves in the country. But why?Given Venezuela's richness in terms of natural resources, it is a critical source of oil and other forms of resources that is not part of the Middle East. And given the US influence on Middle East producers, being able to potentially tap into Venezuela's oil reserves would be a major boon for China's ever growing economy.As for Russia, there's not only key economic ties in all of this but also a more strategic and military one. In exchange for securing some influence on Venezuela's oil fields, Russia has also provided the country with billions in credit for arms sales and infrastructure. In fact, Venezuela is actually Russia's largest arms client in Latin America. So, that should give you some perspective.And in return, Russia has actually been using Venezuela as a military hub with the two countries even signing a "strategic coordination" pact last year. That has led to Moscow even deploying Tu-160 bombers and naval vessels to the region with Venezuela acting as a stronghold just under the US' noses.So with the US' latest actions in Venezuela, all of what is said above is being threatened or is already gone in just one swift move. Trump is often known as a president of action and this is another milestone that literally shows that. Say what you will about the man but his penchant for boldness on the international stage is really something else.And with the US taking over, all of whatever is said now falls in the hands of Trump. And how he wants to play things out, whether to the US' own benefit or as leverage will depend on himself. For now, we're yet to see what becomes of everything.So, the more pertinent question is how will China and Russia respond to what just happened? Are they just going to sit there and let it slide?For now, both sides have come out to condemn the US and Trump's decision to take action. There's a lot of disagreement and protest but is it all just going to be verbal pushback only? And that's the risk that Beijing and Moscow will have to weigh.If they do not actually do something and take more serious action, it practically gives Trump more power to be bold again. And that means he could just take similar action on the likes of Iran and Cuba. So, it does set a precedent for potentially more geopolitical risks that could follow once the dust settles on this one.In a year where market players were already worried about rising geopolitical tensions, the timing of this Venezeula situation is uncanny. And that continues to send precious metals into overdrive, with fear that more risks like these may crop up down the road as well. So, that will be part of the outlook for global markets in weighing where money flows should enter this year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.