HFM begins 2026 by announcing the release of its latest Trading Courses and a new eBook. HFM aims to reinforce the company’s commitment to empowering traders through high-quality education.Products have been put together for both beginners and experienced traders. The new Trading Courses cover essential market concepts, practical trading strategies, and risk management techniques. These courses aim to help learners build confidence, sharpen decision-making skills, and better understand today’s fast-moving trading markets.Complementing the courses, HFM’s newly released eBook serves as a practical guide that traders can reference at their own pace. HFM’s latest eBook addition is ‘A Trader’s Guide to Economics and Fundamental Analysis’.With this latest educational offering, HFM continues to invest in trader development by providing accessible, professional, and relevant learning tools. The new Trading Courses and eBook are now available through HFM’s platforms, offering traders an opportunity to expand their skills and trade with greater confidence.For more information about HFM’s educational resources, visit the official HFM website. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1850 level. It's not one that ties too closely to any key technical levels but could help to limit upside extensions later on in the session, if any. The pair has been trending lower this week, now falling back below both its key hourly moving averages. The 200-hour moving average now is the closest at 1.1865, so keep below that and the near-term bias stays more bearish.So, the expiries could just add another layer nearby on any price spikes depending on the overall market mood. But for now, it's all about dollar sentiment being the bigger driver of price action more than anything else.The greenback has recovered modestly amid the selloff in precious metals but we're seeing a bit of a breather in the latter now. So, that's keeping traders on edge a little in figuring out the next move. It won't be helped of course by yet another delay to the US non-farm payrolls data release amid the US government shutdown. Oh, what fun.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

We are still looking to bring inflation down without sacrificing muchThe economy is actually in a really good positionThe labour market is really strong and domestic demand is recoveringBut it is just that we're supply constrained, and it might be more so than what we thought a while backWe're still adopting the same approach/strategy but it is always difficult to strike a balanceWe are uncomfortable with inflation at the level it is currentlyIf inflation continues to keep at this level, that is not acceptable; hence, the rate hike todayThere is uncertainty surrounding the persistence of inflation pressuresWe might have to raise the cash rate further if inflation remains more persistentAustralian dollar appreciating does help to provide a buffer for the economyWe already factored in a higher exchange rate into our forecastWe expect Australian dollar to shift up as interest differentials move in our favourThis is not the same tightening cycle when we came out of the Covid pandemicWe cannot rule anything in or out at this stage, it's not clear one way or the otherNow we're actively monitoring data to try and figure out how to bring inflation backA lot of the questions are basically just roundabout ways of trying to question if there will be more rate hikes to come and if the RBA has gotten it "wrong" with their policy moves last year. Just as an aside though, this rate hike comes six months after the last rate cut and fits with the timeline lag in how the RBA has conducted policy pivots in the past. So, I'm not sure what the fuss is all about. I guess everyone just wants to find fault with something, as controversy sells.Just to sum things up, Bullock has basically just said that they will be keeping more cautious and they will be taking a more data-dependent approach. They're not going to pre-commit to any further rate hikes but it is clear now that inflation is the main problem they're dealing with.Given the circumstances, they're expecting price developments to look better over time and not rush them to hike rates more aggressively. However, the caveat here is that if inflation pressures are not as temporary as they anticipate, it could force them to raise the cash rate at a quicker pace.So, that is the main takeaway for me here. AUD/USD is trading up 0.9% to 0.7013 currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It will now take longer for inflation to return to the targetAnd this is no longer an acceptable outcomeWe cannot allow inflation to get away from us againThe pickup in inflation is not down to just one factorIt is due to a combination of factors across a broad range of components and sectorsRight from the get go, we're seeing Bullock shift the narrative to basically say "inflation is a problem" now. And that effectively puts to bed any thoughts about two-sided risks or reversing back to the easing part of the cycle again. The outlook picture that she is painting is one that the RBA has to deal with higher price pressures more than anything else moving forward.Her remarks from the Q&A session:We felt it was necessary today to make an adjustmentWill continuously monitor and update forecasts based on data developmentsCurrent forecast/projection is based on the view that some factors driving up inflation is temporaryNot making any predictions, not giving any forward guidance; to remain focused on the dataNo discussion about a 50 bps rate hikeA reminder that forecasts the further out you go, becomes more and more uncertainNo particular path in mind on the cash rateAnd we're going to monitor and wait, as we did when rates were on the way downWe think there's some temporary drivers to inflation and hopefully it will come down, so that will helpI think we were doing the right thing last year but circumstances changeThe point highlighted in bold is something to be wary of. Their current view is that if the factors driving up inflation is temporary, they can adopt a slower approach to hiking the cash rate through to 2027. The indirect meaning of that is if the underlying factors appear to be stronger than anticipated, then they would have to move quicker instead. So, just be wary of that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The decision to hike the cash rate was unanimous as the RBA produces a more hawkish tilt in their decision today. While the decision to hike in itself isn't surprising, it is more so the language that is accompanying the decision that is moving markets. The RBA went from trying to sell a narrative of two-sided risks in December to completely siding with needing to deal with higher inflation pressures now and perhaps for the year ahead.This was their statement on forward guidance back in December last year:"The recent data suggest the risks to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take a little longer to assess the persistence of inflationary pressures. Private demand is recovering. Labour market conditions still appear a little tight but further modest easing is expected. The Board therefore judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious, updating its view of the outlook as the data evolve."And they shifted from that to this one today:"A wide range of data over recent months have confirmed that inflationary pressures picked up materially in the second half of 2025. While part of the pick-up in inflation is assessed to reflect temporary factors, it is evident that private demand is growing more quickly than expected, capacity pressures are greater than previously assessed and labour market conditions are a little tight. The Board judged that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time and it was appropriate to increase the cash rate target."The key point is highlighted in bold as the RBA now forecasts inflation to be higher for an extended period of time, even if they continue to view that the underlying drivers impacting price pressures may only be temporary.Besides that, their cash rate assumption also shows no signs of further easing and instead reflects more rate hikes in due time.At the balance, this does not seem like a central bank that is still weighing up monetary easing. The fact that even with projected rate hikes in their forecast above, it's still borderline in getting inflation back into their target band.I would take that as a rather hawkish sign and an implicit tell that perhaps they could be hiking rates sooner rather than later instead.I mean, it could be a one-and-done until they get more evidence of changes to the inflation picture. However, it is clear that they are almost surely done with the easing part of the cycle already.On inflation developments, the RBA argued two key points:Capacity pressures are judged to have contributed to high underlying inflation but are unlikely to explain the majority of the recent increaseThe larger part of the resurgence in inflation is judged to reflect some sector-specific demand and price pressures, which may not persistHowever, the overall judgement is very uncertainTo put it more plainly, this rate hike is mostly to deal with capacity pressures. But for further rate hikes to come along, the threshold is likely to be much higher. That of course subject to inflation developments.So, how are markets reacting?The Australian dollar is catching a modest bid, with markets previously only pricing in ~78% odds of a rate hike coming into the decision today. A more hawkish tilt also lays out the potential for more rate hikes to come, with cash rate futures now showing ~41 bps of rate hikes to follow after this one.For some context, traders were only pricing in ~57 bps of rate hikes (including the one for today) before this.AUD/USD is trading back up to above 0.7000 now and is up over 1% on the day. The jump higher not only takes out the figure level but pushes back above the 100-hour moving average (red line) of 0.6997. The firm break back above the key near-term level now sees the bias turn more bullish again for the pair.A bit of a dollar recovery might still cap gains to start the week but all else being equal, the aussie looks well positioned for a continued move higher this year. That especially if global growth holds up and we see a rebound back in precious metals/commodities eventually.And the RBA is definitely playing a helping hand in becoming the first major central bank to complete the pivot back to rate hikes. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

RBA unanimous 25bp hike, lifts inflation forecasts and signals more tightening in 2026RBA raises its cash rate by 25bp to 3.85%, as widely expectedChina's NPC Standing Committee to hold meeting on February 4 (ahead of full March 5 meet)Japanese stocks surge as tech rebounds, banks boost risk appetite. KOSPI rockets.ANZ sees RBA 25bp rate hike today, but no commitment to further tighteningPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.9608 (vs. estimate at 6.9598).Gold’s surge reflects structural demand, Goldman says. Favours gold-equity barbell.Australian December 2025 building permits -14.9% m/m (expected -5.7%)Japan’s Katayama: Tokyo coordinates regularly with US on FX, declines comment interventionICYMI - Iran signals readiness for US nuclear talks as military tensions riseAltman calls Nvidia chip speculation “insanity”, backs partnershipUS cuts tariffs on India to 18% as New Delhi agrees to end Russian oil purchasesNew Zealand December 2025 building permits down m/m but up y/yTrump announces critical mineral reserve backed by Exim financing and private capitalOpenAI explores alternatives to Nvidia AI chips amid inference speed concernsinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: ISM manufacturing soarsPalantir beat, 2026 guidance beat alsoAt a glance:RBA hikes to 3.85%, flags renewed inflation pressure and capacity constraints; guidance remains data dependentAUD jumps as the RBA’s projected rate path implies close to two further hikes this yearIran signals willingness to curb nuclear activity, lifting risk sentiment and related equitiesTrump unveils US critical minerals reserve, backing supply-chain security with public and private fundingJapan plays down FX intervention talk, stressing coordination with the USAustralian dwelling approvals slump, highlighting housing sensitivity to higher ratesINR rallies after Trump slashes tariffs on IndiaThe RBA raised its cash rate to 3.85%, as widely expected, citing mounting capacity pressures, the fact that inflationary pressures picked up materially in the second half of 2025, and concern that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time. While there was no commitment to a follow-up move, the risks are clearly skewed toward further tightening. The updated cash-rate track implies close to two additional rate hikes this year. The Australian dollar jumped on both the decision and the guidance, though policymakers were careful to stress that future moves remain data dependent.Geopolitics also provided a risk tailwind. Iran has informed the United States it is willing to shut down or suspend its nuclear programme in an effort to calm Middle East tensions, according to US and Iranian officials cited by the New York Times. Tehran would prefer to revive a proposal floated last year to form a regional consortium for nuclear power production. The headlines supported risk sentiment and related equities.Separately, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, reportedly met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, delivering a message from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei indicating Iran could ship its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia, echoing arrangements under the 2015 JCPOA.In the US, Trump announced the creation of a critical minerals reserve aimed at protecting American industry from supply-chain shocks. The plan includes around $10bn in Exim-backed funding and roughly $2bn from the private sector, reinforcing the policy push around strategic materials.In FX, Japan’s finance minister Katayama declined to comment on whether intervention had occurred and avoided discussing specific levels, while emphasising regular coordination with US authorities, explicitly referencing Treasury Secretary Bessent, and pushing back on claims the government was endorsing a weak yen.On the domestic data front, Australian dwelling approvals fell 14.9% m/m in December, driven by volatility in medium-density housing. Private dwellings excluding houses dropped nearly 30%, retracing November’s gains. With interest rates rising again, approvals look increasingly vulnerable.Precious metals surged. As did Japan equities, and South Korean.Finally, the Indian rupee jumped after Trump moved to slash tariffs on India, providing a fresh boost to sentiment around Indian assets. Asia-Pac stocks: Japan (Nikkei 225) +3.26%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +0.11% Shanghai Composite +0.38%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) +0.74% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The RBA delivered a unanimous 25bp hike tio take the cash rate back up to 3.85% and upgraded its inflation profile, with the SMP implying further tightening in 2026 even as the Bank kept guidance explicitly data dependent.First rate hike since 2023 and after an easing cycle. Summary:RBA hiked and it was unanimous, citing a clear re-acceleration in underlying inflation in 2H25 and tighter capacity constraintsGuidance stayed open-ended: the Board stressed data dependence and uncertainty around how restrictive policy now isThe SoMP shifts hawkish: forecasts assume cash rate 3.9% by June and 4.2% by December, implying roughly two more hikes in 2026Inflation track lifted even with higher-rate assumptions; headline CPI seen peaking mid-year as electricity rebates roll offGrowth near-term upgraded, but the profile fades further out; unemployment seen edging higher into 2027–28The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a unanimous policy tightening and paired it with a notably firmer set of forecasts, arguing that inflation momentum picked up materially in the second half of 2025 and that the economy is operating with greater capacity pressure than previously assessed.In its post-meeting messaging, (decision Statement) the Bank kept its forward guidance deliberately flexible. Policymakers emphasised that future decisions will be guided by incoming data and an evolving assessment of the outlook, noting ongoing uncertainty around domestic activity, inflation dynamics and, crucially, the extent to which monetary policy is currently restrictive. That formulation reads as an attempt to justify action now without pre-committing to a fixed hiking sequence.The tone in the accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) was the bigger signal. The RBA lifted inflation forecasts through the projection horizon and revised its growth view, describing the economy as further from balance and growing above potential in the near term. The Bank also flagged that some measures suggest financial conditions may have become somewhat accommodative, an important shift from prior communications that leaned more heavily on “restrictive” settings after last year’s rate cuts.Forecast assumptions imply additional tightening ahead. The SMP projections are conditioned on a cash-rate track rising to around 3.9% by June and 4.2% by December, effectively building in roughly 40bp of additional hikes this year. The Bank’s argument is that higher rates should restore balance between demand and supply, particularly after private demand growth proved much stronger than expected in late 2025.On the inflation details, the RBA acknowledged that part of the late-2025 inflation surprise reflected less persistent components such as food, travel and durable goods, but it judged that the overall pulse of inflationary pressure had strengthened, including via capacity constraints. Underlying inflation (trimmed mean) is seen lifting in the near term before trending lower only gradually, reaching the mid-2s by mid-2028,still above the target midpoint.The growth outlook was revised up near term, reflecting stronger household consumption, dwelling investment and business investment. The RBA highlighted a sharp lift in business investment expectations through 2026, with data centre spending cited as one contributor, alongside stronger government spending and housing-related demand. Further out, however, growth forecasts were marked down into 2027 as tighter financial conditions bite.Labour market language remained firm, with conditions still described as a little tight and stabilising in recent months. The RBA does not see a material near-term loosening, with unemployment projected to hover around the low-4% range before drifting higher later as rates rise.For markets, the combination of a hike, a unanimous decision, and a forecast track that embeds further tightening is a cleanly hawkish package, tempered only by the Bank’s insistence that it is not locked into any particular path and will respond to how inflation and demand evolve from here. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will speak at 0430 GMT / 2330 US Eastern time This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reserve Bank of Australia decision. I'll have more to come on this separately.Background:ANZ sees RBA 25bp rate hike today, but no commitment to further tighteningAustralian dollar chops, await pivotal RBA decisionRBA preview: Focus on the forward guidanceRBA tipped to hike - pollGoldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast RBA holdGovernor Bullock will speak at 0430 GMT / 2330 US Eastern time This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China's NPC Standing Committee to hold meeting on Feb 4The NPC Standing Committee meeting on 4 February looks procedural rather than macro-moving, based on the proposed agenda flagged by state media: lawmakers are set to review a report on NPC deputy qualifications. That said, markets still pay attention because “Standing Committee” meetings can sometimes be used to set the table for bigger policy signals, especially heading into the annual National People's Congress session in early March (the “Two Sessions” cycle). The fourth session of the 14th NPC is scheduled to open on March 5, while the fourth session of the 14th CPPCC National Committee is set to begin on March 4. The media center for the two sessions will be open from Feb. 27.If the 4 February session sticks to the published agenda (deputy qualifications), CNH and China risk assets should largely ignore it, you’re more likely to see price action driven by global risk tone, China data, property headlines, and US rates.The meeting is best viewed as preparatory plumbing ahead of March, when the big macro items typically land (growth target, fiscal stance, bond quotas, etc.). Even when the formal agenda is narrow, investors and traders will scan for:Any hint of fiscal front-loading (eg, language around local-government financing or authorisations). The Standing Committee has, in prior years, authorised mechanisms that allow earlier release of local government bond quotas to support growth. Regulatory tone changes (business/market structure, tech governance, IP). Notably, the Standing Committee is currently running a public consultation on Trademark Law revisions, which is more micro than macro but relevant for corporate/legal operating risk. FX impacts to be wary of:AUD & NZD: Any surprise pro-growth signal (bond front-loading / stimulus language) would be a marginal AUD-supportive read-through via China demand/commodities; otherwise negligible.Asia risk FX (KRW, SGD): Watch global tech/risk appetite more than February 4 politics. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese and South Korean equities rebounded sharply as tech stocks and bank earnings lifted risk appetite across the region.Summary:Japanese equities rebounded sharply, led by tech and bank stocksNikkei jumped over 3% as risk appetite improved and AI names ralliedStrong bank earnings, including Mizuho, added to upside momentumSouth Korea’s KOSPI surged nearly 5% in a broad turnaroundImproved global sentiment and political optimism supported the moveJapanese equities staged a strong rebound on Tuesday, with stocks rallying across the board as technology shares advanced, bank earnings surprised to the upside, and global risk sentiment improved following recent market volatility.The benchmark Nikkei 225 rose around 3.1%, while the broader Topix gained roughly 2.5%. Technology and AI-linked stocks led the advance, tracking gains in global peers, while financials also provided a strong tailwind after upbeat earnings releases.Bank shares were among the standout performers. Mizuho Financial Group jumped more than 5% after reporting profits above expectations and announcing a share buyback, reinforcing confidence in the sector’s earnings outlook amid higher domestic interest rates. Other major lenders also moved higher, benefiting from the prospect of improving margins and resilient credit conditions.Analysts said the rebound was supported by a combination of dip-buying after recent heavy losses, stabilisation in gold prices, and improved sentiment following solid US manufacturing data. The pullback in safe-haven demand helped revive appetite for risk assets across Asia, particularly in cyclical and growth-oriented sectors.Political factors also played a role, with some investors pointing to expectations that Japan’s ruling party could secure a win in elections scheduled for early February, reducing near-term policy uncertainty and supporting domestic equities.The positive tone extended across the region. In South Korea, the KOSPI surged by almost 5%, marking the strongest performance in Asia and a sharp reversal from the previous session’s steep sell-off. The move reflected broad-based buying across technology, industrials and financials as investors reassessed valuations following Monday’s rout.Overall, the session marked a decisive shift in mood after a turbulent start to the week, with investors rotating back into equities as volatility eased. While markets remain sensitive to global data and policy signals, Tuesday’s rally highlighted the willingness of investors to re-engage when macro conditions and earnings momentum align. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ANZ expects the RBA to lift rates by 25bp in February, while stressing the move would be framed as cautious and data dependent rather than the start of a tightening cycle.Summary:ANZ expects the RBA to hike rates by 25bp at its February meetingSticky trimmed mean inflation and a tight labour market underpin the callANZ sees the RBA keeping policy guidance flexible and data dependentA February hike is not viewed as the start of a sustained tightening cycleUpdated forecasts are likely to show higher near-term inflation but easing laterANZ expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points at its February policy meeting, citing persistent underlying inflation pressures and a labour market that remains tight despite signs of modest cooling.The bank points to trimmed mean inflation running at around 3.35% year-on-year in the December quarter, above the RBA’s most recent forecast, as a key factor supporting a rate increase. ANZ also notes that the unemployment rate dipped back to 4.1% late last year, reinforcing the view that labour market conditions continue to exert upward pressure on prices.However, ANZ does not expect the central bank to signal a committed tightening cycle. Instead, post-meeting communications, including the policy statement, updated forecasts and Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference, are likely to emphasise that the Board remains flexible and is not locked into a predetermined path for interest rates. The February move, in ANZ’s view, would be framed as a risk-management decision rather than the start of a series of hikes.The bank argues that policymakers will find it difficult to ignore trimmed mean inflation running close to a 4% annualised pace over the second half of 2025, even if updated forecasts show inflation returning to the midpoint of the 2–3% target band over time. ANZ expects those forecasts to reflect a higher assumed path for interest rates and a stronger Australian dollar, both of which would weigh on activity later in the projection horizon.On growth, ANZ anticipates the RBA will acknowledge improving momentum heading into 2026, supported by a recovery in private demand. Further out, tighter financial conditions and a firmer currency are expected to moderate growth, with unemployment drifting modestly higher from late-2025 levels.Overall, ANZ expects the RBA to characterise the labour market as still “a little tight” and to justify a February rate increase as a prudent step to ensure inflation returns sustainably to target, while keeping future decisions firmly dependent on incoming data. ---Earlier:The Reserve Bank of Australia decision today, due at 0330 GMT / 2230 US Eastern time:Australian dollar chops, await pivotal RBA decisionRBA preview: Focus on the forward guidanceRBA tipped to hike - pollGoldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast RBA hold This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system. Allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or "midpoint."Previous close 6.9444Injects 105.5bn yuan in 7day RRs @ 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs says gold’s rally is structurally driven by central bank dollar diversification, not speculative excess, supporting a long-term role for the metal in portfolios.Summary:Goldman Sachs sees gold’s surge as structurally driven, not speculative excessCentral bank diversification away from the US dollar is the key catalystGold markets are small, amplifying the price impact of incremental demandSpeculative positioning remains limited relative to historical episodesGoldman favours a barbell approach pairing equities with gold, not bondsGoldman Sachs says gold’s powerful rally through 2025 and its strong start to 2026 reflect deep structural forces rather than speculative excess, with central bank reserve diversification emerging as the dominant driver of price action.The bank argues that the shift by global central banks away from the US dollar and toward precious metals has materially altered gold’s demand profile. Unlike equities or fixed income, the gold market is relatively small, meaning even modest changes in official-sector demand can have outsized effects on prices. Goldman notes that this dynamic helps explain the speed and scale of gold’s recent gains.According to the firm, speculative participation in gold remains limited. Only a small share of the global gold stock is held by financial speculators, suggesting the rally has not been fuelled by the type of leveraged positioning typically associated with market manias. Instead, the price response has been driven by long-term, balance-sheet decisions by central banks seeking to reduce reliance on dollar-denominated assets.Goldman also frames the recent surge as a partial catch-up after a prolonged period of underperformance. Between 2010 and 2020, gold prices were broadly range-bound while growth-oriented equities delivered outsized returns. The firm argues that the current cycle reflects a rebalancing of asset preferences rather than a late-stage bubble.While Goldman does not expect gold to continue appreciating at the same exponential pace seen over the past year, it remains comfortable with the broader trajectory. The bank sees scope for further gains as reserve diversification continues, even if returns moderate and volatility increases along the way. Importantly, it does not see signs of widespread froth across the precious metals complex.From an asset-allocation perspective, Goldman is advocating a refreshed version of the traditional barbell strategy. Rather than pairing equities with fixed income, the bank sees a stronger case for combining equities with gold, arguing that precious metals offer diversification benefits in an environment marked by geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal slippage and shifting currency regimes.In this framework, gold functions less as a tactical trade and more as a strategic hedge against structural change in the global monetary system. As central banks reassess reserve composition and investors adapt to a less dollar-centric world, Goldman believes gold’s role in portfolios is likely to remain elevated well beyond the current cycle. ---A barbell strategy means holding two contrasting assets at opposite ends of the risk spectrum, in this case equities for growth and gold for protection, while minimising exposure to the middle (traditionally bonds). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian December 2025 building permits:The Reserve Bank of Australia decision today, due at 0330 GMT / 2230 US Eastern time:Australian dollar chops, await pivotal RBA decisionRBA preview: Focus on the forward guidanceRBA tipped to hike - pollGoldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast RBA hold This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan kept intervention ambiguity intact while leaning on US coordination language and downplaying any suggestion the government is cheerleading a weaker yen.Summary:Japan’s finance minister avoided confirming or denying any FX intervention activityShe pushed back on the idea that PM Takaichi was “talking up” a weak yenOfficials again refused to discuss specific FX levelsJapan stressed it coordinates regularly with US authorities on FX at multiple levelsMessaging aims to cool intervention speculation without closing policy optionsSays closely communicating with Bessent Japan’s finance minister Katayama sought to dampen speculation around foreign-exchange intervention while keeping official options open, declining to comment on whether Tokyo had been in the market and refusing to discuss specific currency levels. The careful language is consistent with Japan’s long-running approach of maintaining “constructive ambiguity” in FX, particularly when volatility picks up or when markets become focused on intervention risk.A key part of the remarks addressed recent political headlines around currency policy. Katayama said comments by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi about foreign-exchange “benefits” were intended as a general observation rather than a policy signal, and he pushed back against the notion that she was emphasising the advantages of a weaker yen. The clarification appears designed to reassure markets that the government is not explicitly endorsing yen weakness, even as exporters can benefit from a softer currency and import-heavy sectors feel the pain through higher costs.The minister’s refusal to comment on specific levels reinforces the idea that Tokyo wants to avoid being boxed into defending any particular line in the sand. Historically, officials have preferred to focus on the pace and disorderliness of moves rather than a single number, leaving flexibility to respond if conditions worsen.The most market-sensitive element of Katayama’s comments was her emphasis that Japan coordinates regularly with United States authorities at various levels, mentioning Bessent specifically. That line matters because coordinated messaging can be as important as direct action: the perception of US engagement tends to raise the bar for one-way speculative positioning and can increase the deterrence effect of any potential intervention.For markets, the take-away is twofold. First, Tokyo is actively managing the narrative around the yen and political messaging. Second, it is reinforcing the framework of ongoing communication with the US—without making any operational commitment. Net-net, it reads as an attempt to cool volatility and curb intervention rumours while preserving maximum optionality if currency moves become disorderly. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran signalled readiness for nuclear talks with the US as envoys prepare to meet in Istanbul, even as military tensions and strike risks remain elevated.Summary:Iran signalled readiness for nuclear talks with the US amid rising military pressureSenior US and Iranian envoys are expected to meet in Istanbul later this weekTalks come as US forces mass in the region and strike risks remain elevatedWashington is pushing for limits on uranium enrichment and missile activityRegional allies are engaged as fears grow of escalation or renewed unrest in IranIran has indicated it is prepared to enter negotiations with the United States over its nuclear programme, as diplomatic activity intensifies against a backdrop of heightened military tensions across the Middle East.Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Tehran remains open to diplomacy, provided talks are conducted with mutual respect and recognition of national interests. His comments come as both sides are reportedly preparing to dispatch senior envoys to Istanbul for high-level discussions later this week, potentially marking the first direct engagement between US and Iranian officials since last year.The diplomatic push coincides with a significant US military build-up in the region. Donald Trump has ordered warships and aircraft into position amid warnings that Washington could strike Iranian targets if negotiations fail. Trump has suggested that talks are already under way and that a deal could avert military action, while also reiterating demands that Iran halt production of highly enriched uranium and curb its ballistic missile programme.According to regional and US media reports, Araghchi is expected to meet Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, in Istanbul alongside representatives from several Arab and Muslim countries, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. No formal timetable has been announced, but Iranian officials said discussions are being finalised and could conclude within days.The talks would follow a turbulent period marked by direct military confrontation. Last year, Israeli and US forces struck Iranian nuclear and missile facilities after Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles toward Israel during a brief but intense conflict. Satellite imagery released recently suggests Iran has since moved to repair damage at key nuclear sites, including Isfahan and Natanz.Behind the diplomatic push lies mounting concern in Tehran that even a limited US strike could destabilise the regime. Iranian officials have reportedly warned that renewed military action could reignite widespread protests, which have already exposed deep domestic discontent following economic deterioration, high inflation and currency weakness.Regional allies are also bracing for potential fallout. Saudi and Israeli officials have held discussions with US defence officials, while Israel has warned it is prepared for all scenarios and threatened severe retaliation if attacked. With tensions high and diplomacy fragile, markets are watching closely for any signal that talks could ease the risk of a broader regional conflict. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman pushed back on reports questioning Nvidia’s role, saying the company “loves working with Nvidia” and expects to remain a major customer long term, dismissing speculation around chip dissatisfaction as overblown. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The US-India trade deal cuts tariffs sharply in exchange for India ending Russian oil imports, easing pressure on Indian exports while reshaping energy flows.Summary:US and India reached a trade deal cutting US tariffs on Indian goods to 18%The US will remove a punitive 25% tariff tied to India’s Russian oil purchasesIndia agreed to halt Russian oil imports and shift supply toward the US and potentially VenezuelaIndian equities rallied sharply, easing pressure on exports and the rupeeDetails remain limited, with no formal proclamation or timeline releasedDonald Trump announced a trade agreement with India that sharply reduces US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from as high as 50%, in exchange for New Delhi committing to end purchases of Russian oil and lower trade barriers for US exports.The announcement followed a call between Trump and Narendra Modi and represents a significant shift in bilateral trade relations after months of tariff pressure. A US official said Washington would rescind a punitive 25% duty imposed last year over India’s continued imports of Russian crude, which had been layered on top of a separate 25% “reciprocal” tariff.Under the agreement, India will redirect oil purchases toward the US and potentially Venezuela, helping to replace Russian supply. The deal also includes commitments from India to raise purchases of US energy, technology, agricultural and other products, alongside broader reductions in tariff and non-tariff barriers.Indian markets reacted positively. US-listed Indian stocks and ETFs posted strong gains, reflecting relief that India’s exports will no longer face a disproportionate tariff burden compared with other Asian economies. Analysts noted that the new 18% rate broadly aligns India with regional peers and removes a key drag on trade competitiveness and currency sentiment.However, details remain scarce. No presidential proclamation or Federal Register notice has been issued, leaving uncertainty around implementation dates, enforcement mechanisms and the precise timeline for ending Russian oil imports. The agreement also lacks the large-scale investment commitments seen in recent US deals with Japan and South Korea.The deal follows India’s recent trade agreement with the European Union and comes as the Trump administration accelerates trade negotiations ahead of a pending US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariff authority. Officials have signalled that bilateral deals will proceed regardless of the court outcome.From an energy perspective, India’s pivot away from Russia marks a notable shift. India has relied heavily on discounted Russian crude since 2022, but imports have already begun to slow, suggesting the transition may already be underway. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NZ data. Excluding apartments, flats, and retirement village units, the number of consents for new houses was down 6%.+26.2% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.