There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 level. The expiries don't tie to any technical significance, so I wouldn't attach too much impact on them for the day. That being said, we could still see the expiries limit any downside price extensions in the session ahead. That as traders are still digesting and figuring things out on the US Treasury decision to double buybacks at the long-end of the curve yesterday.The announcement there is still the main driver of trading sentiment at the moment, with that having impacted the dollar mood heavily. The greenback fell hard on the headlines, as Treasury yields also fell off significantly at the same time.Still, it is more than likely that such a move will only be short-term. That unless we do see inflation developments change up, with that also relying on how things are playing out in the Middle East.But for today at least, the "Bessent put" might continue to reverberate and keep the dollar pinned down for now. Keep an eye on the bond market for any clues in that regard. A material pick up in yields could yet see the dollar rebound more strongly.Besides that, there will be another big set of expiries for EUR/USD tomorrow with a massive one at the 1.1500 level. But all else being equal, it might not factor much into play after the recent events since yesterday.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In case you missed it: US Treasury is increasing the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated securitiesThat was the big announcement that has gotten markets buzzing again this week. Essentially, the US Treasury is doubling the size of buybacks at the long-end of the curve. So, that adds more liquidity i.e. supply into the market after having seen 30-year yields surge to its highest since 2007 earlier in the week. As a result, the dollar got slammed down alongside bond yields while stocks and precious metals surged higher.The question now is, how significant is this change and will it be one to shift the structural outlook of not just the bond market but broader markets as well?Let's first address the impact of the announcement. The main point here is to bolster market liquidity and in that lieu, it definitely buys some relief for the long-end of the curve.However, that relief might just be short-term. What the US Treasury is doing here is no different than their recent steps to try and help Japan with the yen currency intervention. It's something different to try and get markets to react but it still does not address the underlying structural issues behind the scenes.The surge higher in 30-year yields in the US comes even after softer US data at the start of August. So, what does that tell us?It's a signal that rates are rising largely due to fiscal worries and also mounting inflation expectations. The latter is not helped by the prolonged situation in the Middle East, not least helping to underpin oil prices again.The other key takeaway is that it tells us that the US Treasury has seen yields go up to a level they don't like, hence feeling the need to step in and buy time essentially. But mind you, the developing backdrop in pushing rates higher is not to say is caused by some major market dislocation of any sort. It's pretty much a straightforward case as mentioned above.But now instead, markets are starting to come around to the idea that there is a "Bessent put" in place now.All that being said, I would argue that it all still comes down to the structural outlook of the market. Unless fiscal spending eases and inflation pressures cool, it would arguably be a matter of time before market players push back again.And I guess that's what the US Treasury is hoping for - that is to just buy time, with some support from the Fed in not positioning more hawkishly. And in due time, hopefully inflation expectations will drop should there be better developments in the Middle East.But unless that happens, expect the bond vigilantes to still have a good reason to come back into the market.As for the US Treasury committing to this decision, there will also be other key risks to be mindful of. That is largely tied to the idea of a "Bessent put" at the moment.That in itself might present some moral hazard and create some unintended overlap with monetary policy function. If the US Treasury continues to step in as it does, it could give investors a false sense of security and comfort in taking riskier and more leveraged positions. And we all know when shit hits the fan, things don't tend to turn out well in such circumstances. And this is the Treasury market we're talking about, so that's a bit of a hazard to say the least.Adding to that, stepping in on the long-end of the curve now directs the debt pressure to the short-end instead. If dealers are forced to absorb a much bigger amount of T-bill issuances instead (in needing to fund the buybacks), that risks draining excess cash in money markets. Think of the less talked about funding and repo markets.These are spots that typically function without any fuss from day to day but one small dislocation risks setting the whole financial system on fire. So to even start to shift some risks over to this side, is not something that might go down well when things start to really get dicey i.e. liquidity issues like what we saw back in 2019. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Nasdaq futures are testing the upper boundary of the descending channel that has contained price since June. With NQ near 29,616, the key question is whether the 29,500-29,600 area becomes support or whether price falls back inside the channel.Key takeaways for Nasdaq tradersConstructive scenario: NQ holds above the channel and resumes higher.Main risk: A daily close back inside the channel would warn of a failed breakout.Upside test: The recent 30,000-30,200 resistance area.Downside risk: A failed breakout could expose 29,000, followed by 28,700-28,800.Why this Nasdaq retest matters (NQ daily chart)NQ broke above the descending trendline after recovering sharply from the late-July low near 27,250. Price has now returned to the same trendline, creating a classic breakout test.A successful retest happens when previous resistance becomes support. Buyers defend the trendline, price holds above it and the market begins moving higher again.A failed breakout would look different. NQ would fall back inside the channel and remain there, potentially trapping traders who bought the initial move above resistance.Importantly, the current daily candle is still open. A temporary move around the trendline is not enough to settle the question. The daily close, followed by how price reacts during the next session, should provide more useful evidence.Nasdaq futures levels to watchWhat would confirm each scenario?Holding above 29,500-29,600, especially after a brief dip and recovery, would strengthen the argument that this is a healthy retest. Buyers could then challenge 30,000-30,200, with the major high near 30,975 becoming relevant only if that resistance is cleared.A daily close decisively back below the channel would shift the interpretation toward a failed breakout. That would not guarantee a major selloff, but it would weaken the recovery and increase the probability of another rotation toward lower support.This analysis is based on Nasdaq futures. Traders using QQQ, CFDs or options should treat these levels as market-structure references because prices differ between instruments. More Nasdaq chart updates are available in the investingLive Nasdaq technical analysis archive.I'm also tracking Ethereum's explosive volume-profile breakout across its six-month range as broad crypto risk appetite expands beyond Bitcoin's push toward the $70,000 zone. Meanwhile, equity markets are navigating headwinds from elevated yields, with Greg Michalowski from investingLive.com noting that major U.S. stock indices pulled back from record highs amid rising crude prices and mounting Treasury yields. That pressure has carried over into subsequent trading, as Justin Low at investingLive.com highlighted that U.S. futures nudged lower with tech and chipmakers leading the retreat ahead of critical retail earnings.Trade at your own risk. The important signal is not simply touching the trendline, but whether buyers can defend it. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The big announcement from yesterday, in case you missed it: US Treasury is increasing the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated securitiesThat pretty much overshadowed the FOMC minutes and is arguably going to stick as the biggest headline in markets this week. Essentially, Bessent is announcing that they will at least double buybacks on the long-end on the curve to at least $4 billion per operation.It's a significant change and one that shifts the debt burden to the short-end of the curve. But in a market size of over $30 trillion and US debt of over $40 trillion, the amount we're talking about is quite negligible. And all else being equal, it's arguably just another band-aid in not wanting to address the structural issues plaguing the market.Typically, this sort of yields suppression should flow through monetary policy. But instead, they choose this after 30-year yields hit their highest since 2007 earlier in the week.For now though, long-term yields are pushed down at least. And that is music to the ears of risk trades as well as dollar bears. Will this last though? I'll put up a separate discourse later in the day.In that lieu, gold is taking full advantage after keeping rather cagey in the past week or so. We're now seeing a breakout to near $4,500 as traders shake off the 100-day moving average (red line) and move on to test the next key technical threshold.That being the 200-day moving average (blue line), seen at around $4,511 currently.The shoot higher as the dollar drops underscores the narrative that the currency debasement trade remains well and truly alive. All it takes is just the right set of headlines to get things going again.The US-Iran conflict has definitely made things fairly messy in that regard. But through this, we at least get some confirmation that if gold were to really run on the right set of drivers, it can really run again.The technical resistance above now poses the next key line in the sand for gold, before the 38.2 Fib retracement level at $4,576 comes into play.With the situation in the Middle East still persisting, I am still holding some reservations about this latest announcement by the US Treasury. As much as it is a surprise and material development, it may not be one that lasts unless fiscal spending in the US is reined in and/or inflation pressures cool further in the months ahead. If not, the bond vigilantes will surely be back in due time.So if gold bulls were to really try and capitalise, they only have this short and brief window to do so. But even then, I still see some key technical levels that aren't likely to so easily give way. That unless we get something more positive and constructive from the US-Iran conflict and/or from inflation/Fed developments. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Key lessons for gold and Bitcoin investorsA Treasury buyback is not free money: The government repurchases older bonds, usually while continuing to issue new debt.Buybacks can calm markets: They add demand and liquidity to parts of the Treasury market, which can pull bond yields lower.This was not the same as Federal Reserve quantitative easing: The Treasury is managing government debt, not creating central-bank money.The market reaction carried a message: Gold’s outsized gain suggests traders may be increasingly concerned about the dollar’s long-term purchasing power.Gold and Bitcoin share a scarcity story, but they are not interchangeable: Gold is a traditional reserve asset, while Bitcoin remains much more volatile and often behaves like a risk asset.What happened to gold and Bitcoin?Gold jumped approximately 3%, while Bitcoin accelerated from above $65,000 toward the $69,000-$70,000 area after the US Treasury announced that it would expand buybacks of longer-dated government bonds.The Treasury doubled the planned size of some buyback operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, focusing on bonds with maturities of 10 years or longer. Treasury yields subsequently declined and the US dollar weakened, helping several financial assets rally. Reuters reported that the planned repurchases remain modest compared with the enormous US Treasury market.Eamonn Sheridan highlighted an important clue in his analysis of gold’s oversized reaction to the Treasury buyback announcement: a technical debt-management decision would not normally be expected to send gold up 3%.The size of the reaction suggests traders may have heard a wider message. If rising government borrowing costs become painful enough, policymakers may be increasingly willing to intervene. That can reinforce concerns about inflation, fiscal discipline and the dollar’s future purchasing power.What is a Treasury bond buyback?The US government borrows money by selling Treasury bills, notes and bonds. These securities then trade between investors in the secondary market.During a buyback, the Treasury offers to repurchase some previously issued bonds before they mature.A simplified example:The Treasury previously issued a 20-year bond.That older bond now trades less actively than newer securities.The Treasury offers to buy some of it back.The seller receives cash, while the older bond is removed from the market.The Treasury may issue new debt elsewhere to replace the financing.Buybacks can improve market liquidity, reduce pressure in less actively traded bonds and make it easier for investors to buy or sell without causing large price moves.They can also raise bond prices temporarily. Because bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, stronger buying can push yields lower.Does a Treasury buyback reduce US government debt?Not necessarily.This is one of the most important distinctions for investors to understand. A buyback sounds like the government is paying down its debt, but that is often not what is happening.The Treasury may repurchase older bonds while issuing new securities to finance the operation. In its August borrowing update, the US Treasury explained that buybacks are not expected to significantly change privately held net borrowing because new issuance replaces the securities being repurchased.In simple terms, the government may be reorganizing its debt rather than eliminating it.This is closer to refinancing a mortgage than paying off the house.Is a Treasury buyback the same as quantitative easing?No.This difference is easily misunderstood:A Treasury buyback does not mechanically create money in the same way as quantitative easing.However, markets trade on signals as well as mechanics. Investors may interpret expanded buybacks as evidence that policymakers are becoming uncomfortable with high long-term yields and are willing to act when borrowing costs become disruptive.That interpretation can matter more to asset prices than the immediate dollars involved.What does dollar debasement mean?Dollar debasement does not necessarily mean the dollar is about to collapse.It means the currency gradually loses purchasing power, so one dollar buys fewer goods, services or financial assets over time.For example, if prices rise by 4% while money held in cash earns 2%, the saver has gained interest in dollar terms but lost purchasing power after inflation.This is why investors watch real yields:Real yield = bond yield minus expected inflationIf a bond yields 4% but inflation is expected to average 3%, its approximate real return is only 1%.When investors expect larger government deficits, continued debt issuance or policies that hold borrowing costs below inflation, they may become more interested in assets whose supply cannot be expanded easily.This is where gold and Bitcoin enter the discussion.Why can dollar concerns support gold?Gold cannot be printed by a central bank, and new supply is expensive and slow to produce.It also has:thousands of years of history as a store of value;demand from central banks and institutional investors;a globally traded and highly liquid market;no direct dependence on the creditworthiness of a government or company.Gold does not pay interest. That can make it less attractive when inflation-adjusted bond yields are high.When yields fall, inflation expectations rise or confidence in government finances weakens, the opportunity cost of holding gold becomes lower. Investors may then accept owning an asset without income because protecting purchasing power becomes the greater priority.Gold’s 3% reaction was therefore notable. It suggests the market may have interpreted the Treasury decision as part of a larger fiscal and currency story, rather than simply a small adjustment to bond-market plumbing.Why can the same concern support Bitcoin?Bitcoin’s supply rules are written into its protocol. The maximum supply is limited to 21 million coins, and its issuance rate cannot be changed by a government responding to deficits or market stress.That creates a simple long-term argument:Governments can issue more currency and debt.Gold supply grows slowly.Bitcoin supply is capped.If confidence in traditional money weakens, scarce alternatives may attract demand.Bitcoin also benefits when Treasury yields and the dollar fall because looser financial conditions can encourage investors to take more risk. The latest move was supported not only by the debasement narrative, but also by improving Bitcoin ETF inflows and broader participation across Ethereum and major altcoins.This means Bitcoin’s rally probably had two overlapping drivers:A scarce-asset narrative: Bitcoin as protection against long-term currency dilution.A liquidity and risk-on narrative: Lower yields and a weaker dollar making volatile assets easier to own.Are gold and Bitcoin really the same trade?They overlap, but they are not the same asset.Gold is generally treated as the more defensive asset. Bitcoin offers greater portability and a mathematically limited supply, but it also carries higher volatility, regulatory risk and technological custody risks.There will be periods when both rise on dollar concerns. There will also be periods when gold rises while Bitcoin falls because frightened investors prefer safety and liquidity over speculation.Their simultaneous surge is therefore a useful signal, not proof that they will always move together.Why was the market reaction larger than the buyback itself?This may be the most valuable lesson from the entire episode.The direct size of the expanded buyback program was small compared with the multitrillion-dollar Treasury market. Yet gold, Bitcoin, bonds and other risk assets reacted strongly.That suggests markets were trading the possible policy message:If long-term yields rise far enough to threaten financial stability or government borrowing costs, the Treasury may become more active in calming the bond market.Investors may then ask whether future interventions will become larger, whether fiscal deficits will remain high, and whether policymakers will tolerate more inflation to prevent debt costs from becoming unmanageable.The first-order effect was a Treasury buyback.The second-order effect was lower yields and a weaker dollar.The deeper market question was whether the authorities are becoming more sensitive to financial stress caused by the country’s growing debt burden.Gold’s unusually strong response suggests that the third question mattered.What should gold and Bitcoin investors watch next?One announcement does not establish a lasting debasement trend. Investors can look for confirmation across several markets:Long-term Treasury yields: Continued declines would reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and may support Bitcoin.The US dollar: Further weakness would strengthen the currency-debasement interpretation.Inflation expectations: Rising expectations alongside falling yields would be particularly supportive for scarce assets.Treasury auctions: Weak demand could push yields higher again and test whether policymakers intervene further.Gold follow-through: Holding the 3% gain would suggest the move was more than short covering.Bitcoin ETF flows: Continued inflows would show that institutional demand is supporting the breakout.Bitcoin’s former range ceiling: Holding above approximately $66,900 would strengthen the recovery, while a quick fall back into the range would warn of a failed breakout.For additional technical context, see our earlier Bitcoin analysis explaining what bulls needed to change in the bearish 2026 structure.The key lesson is not that Treasury buybacks automatically make gold or Bitcoin rise. It is that markets constantly interpret what policy decisions reveal about debt, inflation and future intervention.This time, the message traders appeared to hear was that the US authorities are increasingly sensitive to high borrowing costs. Gold’s oversized reaction, combined with Bitcoin’s surge, suggests more investors may be looking beyond the immediate bond-market operation and asking a much larger question: what will protect their purchasing power if managing America’s debt increasingly requires easier financial conditions? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

SK Hynix swap costs, which spiked to 1000bp in June, now said to halveRun on banks feared as concern rises over government seizing deposits to fund warAustralia's jobless rate climbs to a near four year high in JulyPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7808 (vs. estimate at 6.7196)Australian July 2026 jobs report: Unemployment rate 4.5% (expected 4.4%, prior 4.4%)China's 5 year and 1 year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remain at 3.5% and 3% respectivelyGold's oversized reaction to Treasury buyback reflects debasement tradeAI boom powers Japan's exports as semiconductor shipments surge 49%Japan July 2026 exports and imports both higher than expectedUBS stays constructive on equities as VIX hits 2026 low despite risksTrump vows crushing new economic operation against Iran, warns alliesBessent's panic move risks reigniting rate hike bets, hands Fed hawks new ammunitionFed independence in focus as senators question Warsh's calendar gapsA radical Bessent, panicking with big Treasury bond buyback move, craters the dollarDeutsche Bank sees 4 reasons Treasury buyback move is dollar negative (ps. Fed hike too?)ICYMI - HUGE news: US Treasury's giant bond buyback boost sinks dollar, lifts stocksICYMI: US runs stealth Hormuz oil corridor, moving 10 million barrels a day: AxiosAustralia jobs preview: Divergence on whether June's hiring surge holdsinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap: Surprise US Treasury announcement sends dollar lower, gold higherSummary:Axios reports the US military has quietly run a shipping corridor through Hormuz's southern channel for several weeks, moving close to 10 million barrels of oil a day, about half pre-war volumePresident Trump announced what he called the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country, targeting Iran and threatening penalties on any nation helping it evade sanctionsUnconfirmed reports describe a vessel on fire in the Strait of Hormuz, understood to be on the Iran crossing rather than the Oman route; oil has traded steadily near recent highsThe US Treasury's move to double long-dated bond buybacks eased a bond market selloff, sending the dollar lower and gold sharply higher, as US national debt passed 40 trillion dollarsAsian equities rallied broadly, led by a Kospi surge that triggered a trading halt, alongside gains in the Nikkei, Topix and Chinese mainland indicesThe People's Bank of China held loan prime rates steady for a fifteenth straight month and set a notably weaker yuan reference rate after the currency hit a three-year highJapan's July exports grew at their fastest pace since October 2022 on AI-driven semiconductor equipment demand, though a trade deficit is expected to persist while Hormuz-related energy costs stay elevatedAustralian employment unexpectedly fell in July and the jobless rate hit its highest level since late 2021, easing pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia for a near-term hikeMarkets moved through a heavy news cycle overnight, with a surprise US Treasury intervention driving much of the price action even as tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continued to build.Axios reported that the US military has quietly operated a shipping corridor through Hormuz's southern channel, off the coast of Oman, for several weeks, citing US officials. Between 15 and 20 tankers transit the strait nightly, with daily exports now close to 10 million barrels, roughly half pre-war volume, and some nights seeing as much as 15 to 20 million barrels move out of the Gulf. The operation includes escorting loaded outbound tankers and guiding empty vessels into the Gulf to collect oil before departing.Separately, President Trump announced what he described as sweeping new economic warfare against Iran, framing it as the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country and warning that any nation helping Tehran evade sanctions would face severe financial penalties. Trump said the move followed Iran's failure to take the opportunity to reach a deal with the US.Unconfirmed reports also emerged of a vessel on fire in the Strait of Hormuz. It remains unclear who struck the vessel or what type of attack was involved, and the incident does not appear to be linked to the Oman route used by the US-run corridor, but rather the Iran crossing. Oil prices traded steadily near recent highs despite the report. Gold, too, traded near its highs. The dominant market driver into the Asian session, however, was the US Treasury's announcement that it would more than double its long-dated bond buybacks, a move that eased a selloff which had pushed 30-year yields to their highest level since 2007. The dollar fell sharply during US trading hours on the news, while gold jumped higher. The intervention came against the backdrop of US national debt rising above 40 trillion dollars, though the dollar's overall ranges in Asian trade remained relatively narrow.Asian equities rallied broadly in response. Japan's Nikkei 225 opened 461 points higher, up 0.7%, and extended gains to around 1% by the midday break, while the broader Topix rose 0.9%. South Korea's Kospi opened 3% higher and extended its advance to around 5.5%, triggering the exchange's sidecar trading halt mechanism after the surge. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.33% at the opening, the Shenzhen Component gained 1.03% and the ChiNext Index climbed 1.27%,.The People's Bank of China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a fifteenth consecutive month, holding the one-year loan prime rate at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50%, in line with market expectations. Analysts said the steady rates suggest policymakers may lean more on accelerated fiscal measures than fresh monetary easing to support growth, with banks already contending with near-record-low profit margins. Separately, China's central bank set its daily yuan reference rate 612 pips weaker than market estimates, the largest weak-side deviation since February 27, signalling a desire to slow the currency's gains after the yuan climbed to its strongest level against the dollar in more than three years.On data, Japan's exports rose 23.2% year on year in July, beating forecasts of 19.9% and marking a fifth consecutive month of accelerating growth, the fastest pace since October 2022, driven by a 49.1% jump in semiconductor equipment shipments tied to AI demand. Imports climbed 27.8%, also topping estimates and reaching their highest level since November 2022. Japan posted a trade deficit of 634.5 billion yen for the month, and the deficit is expected to persist in the near term as elevated energy costs continue to weigh on import values until shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalises, even as AI-driven export strength continues.In Australia, employment unexpectedly fell in July and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level since late 2021, adding to signs of a cooling labour market. The data sent the Australian dollar only modestly lower. Markets are pricing in little chance of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike next month, though a move by year end remains regarded as close to even odds, with much depending on upcoming inflation data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Crypto market update: Bitcoin nears $70K as Ethereum and altcoins broaden the reboundCrypto has shifted from fragile stabilization to a broad market rebound. Bitcoin has pushed toward $69,000-$70,000, Ethereum is outperforming, ETF demand has improved, and major altcoins are participating. The move is increasingly credible, but holding above the former $66,900 range ceiling is now more important than briefly trading through it.Key takeaways for crypto investors and tradersBitcoin breakout attempt: BTC advanced from above $65,000 to approximately $69,258 in the supplied market snapshot.Institutional demand improved: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $297.5 million of inflows on August 17 and another $189.3 million on August 18.Ethereum confirms better risk appetite: ETH gained approximately 18% on the day, while spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $71.4 million on August 18.The rally is broadening: SOL, XRP, UNI, AAVE, LINK and NEAR all posted strong daily gains.Confirmation is still needed: Many major cryptocurrencies remain deeply negative year-to-date and over the past year.As Eamonn Sheridan at investingLive.com highlighted, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's aggressive expansion of long-dated bond buybacks triggered an immediate drop in 30-year yields and sent the US dollar index tumbling to fresh multi-month lows. Eamonn explained that gold’s unusually large 3% rally after the Treasury buyback announcement suggests traders are increasingly worried that the US dollar will lose purchasing power, making assets such as gold and Bitcoin more attractive places to protect their money.Why Bitcoin approaching $70K mattersBitcoin initially improved by reclaiming $65,000, its strongest level in around three weeks. It then accelerated toward $69,000-$70,000, taking price above the previous $61,500-$66,900 trading range.That is an important technical improvement. Earlier rebounds remained trapped inside the range, where sellers could continue treating rallies as opportunities to reduce exposure. Trading above $66,900 suggests that buyers are attempting something more meaningful.The next question is whether Bitcoin can hold the breakout.A short move above resistance can attract momentum buyers and force bearish traders to cover positions. However, if BTC quickly falls back below $66,900, the breakout could become another failed rally. Sustained trade above the former range ceiling would offer stronger evidence that the market is moving from short-term repair into a more durable recovery.This builds on our earlier Bitcoin analysis of what bulls needed to do to end the bearish 2026 structure.Ethereum’s massive 26% surge in only 8 hours, explained on the chartThis daily ETHUSD chart includes a six-month volume profile, showing where the greatest amount of trading activity occurred during the period. Ethereum travelled approximately 26% in only eight hours, moving from the lower boundary of the six-month value area near $1,844 to its upper boundary around $2,309.$1,844 Value Area Low: ETH had spent several sessions holding around this lower boundary before buyers took control.$2,062 Point of Control: This is the price with the highest trading activity during the six-month period. ETH crossed it rapidly, showing unusually strong momentum.$2,309 Value Area High: This is the upper boundary of the main trading range and a natural area for resistance or profit-taking.The speed of the move shows how aggressively sentiment changed. However, reaching the Value Area High does not automatically confirm another rally. The next clue is whether ETH can hold above $2,309, or whether sellers push it back toward the high-volume area around $2,062.ETF inflows provide institutional supportThe improvement in ETF flows may be the most important development behind the price move.US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted:$297.5 million on August 17$189.3 million on August 18Spot Ethereum ETFs added another $71.4 million on August 18, led by BlackRock’s ETHA.ETF inflows matter because they show that the rally is being supported by fresh capital rather than only short covering or leveraged speculation. Two consecutive positive days for Bitcoin ETFs represent a clear improvement from the outflows seen during the previous week.However, two strong days do not establish a lasting trend. Traders will want to see whether inflows remain positive after the initial breakout excitement fades. Continued demand would make it easier for Bitcoin and Ethereum to defend their newly recovered levels.Why Ethereum’s outperformance is an important signalEthereum was the standout large-cap cryptocurrency in the supplied screener, gaining approximately 18.1% on the day, nearly 20% over the week, and about 20% over the month.Bitcoin often acts as the more defensive crypto asset. When Ethereum begins outperforming BTC, it can indicate that investors are becoming more willing to take risk beyond Bitcoin.That makes ETH an important confirmation signal for the wider market. Its strength, combined with positive Ethereum ETF flows, suggests that the rebound is developing both institutional and speculative support.The caution is that Ethereum remained down approximately 24% year-to-date and 45.5% over one year in the screener. Its recent surge is repairing substantial damage, not yet erasing it.Altcoin breadth makes this healthier than a Bitcoin-only bounceMarket breadth describes how many assets are participating in a move. A rally led only by Bitcoin is narrower and potentially more fragile. A move that includes Ethereum, major smart-contract networks, DeFi tokens and infrastructure projects is generally more convincing.The screener showed:Solana: approximately +10.3% on the dayXRP: approximately +10.3%, reclaiming the psychologically important $1 areaUniswap: approximately +9.9%Aave: approximately +9.8%NEAR: approximately +9.2%Chainlink: approximately +8.5%This participation suggests that risk appetite is spreading beyond Bitcoin. Solana reflects stronger interest in higher-beta smart-contract exposure, while gains in Uniswap, Aave and Chainlink show that DeFi and crypto-infrastructure assets are also receiving attention.Still, the Altcoin Season Index near 44 out of 100 does not support calling this a full altseason. Leadership remains selective, and several major altcoins are still down heavily over longer periods.Zcash stands out from the recovery crowdZcash was one of the more interesting names in the screener because its strength was not limited to one session.ZEC gained approximately 10.7% on the day and 14.8% over the week. More importantly, it was shown up around 111.7% over six months, 9.7% year-to-date, and more than 1,400% over one year.That separates ZEC from coins that are merely bouncing after deep declines. It is displaying genuine relative strength across several timeframes.This does not automatically make it attractive at any price. It does, however, make ZEC a useful asset to watch when assessing where sustained crypto momentum is developing.Speculative tokens provide both confirmation and a warningTRUMP was the strongest daily performer in the supplied table, rising approximately 21.4% on the day and 22.7% over the week.Such a move can confirm that traders are becoming more comfortable with speculative risk. At the same time, TRUMP remained down approximately 63.7% year-to-date and 80.3% over one year.This is a good example of why daily performance should never be examined in isolation. A token can surge more than 20% in one session while remaining inside a severely damaged longer-term trend.When highly speculative tokens begin leading the performance board, sentiment is improving, but short-term excess may also be building quickly.Macro conditions and regulation helped the recoveryThe crypto rebound also received support from outside the digital-asset market.Treasury yields declined and the US dollar weakened after the Treasury announced larger buybacks of long-dated government bonds. Lower yields and a softer dollar can improve the environment for risk assets because they reduce some of the pressure created by tighter financial conditions.Bitcoin is not driven only by crypto-specific news. It remains sensitive to global liquidity, interest-rate expectations and the dollar.Regulatory sentiment also improved after the SEC proposed a framework that could make it easier for some crypto businesses to issue tokens and raise capital. The proposal includes possible exemptions for certain token offerings and enters a 60-day comment period.This is a constructive development after repeated policy delays, but it is not a complete regulatory solution. Broader US crypto legislation, including the Clarity Act, remains unresolved in Congress.What makes a crypto rally more convincing?A healthier recovery normally combines three forms of evidence:August 19 showed progress across all three areas. That makes this rebound more convincing than earlier Bitcoin-only bounces.Nevertheless, short-term momentum and the longer-term trend are still sending different messages. Bitcoin was approximately 20.8% lower year-to-date and around 39% lower over one year in the screener. Solana and XRP also remained deeply negative over those periods.A market can rally sharply inside a damaged broader trend. Traders should therefore separate a powerful recovery from a confirmed new bull cycle.What should crypto traders watch next?The most important test is whether Bitcoin can hold above the former $66,900 range ceiling and build acceptance closer to $70,000.A sustained hold, combined with continued ETF inflows and persistent Ethereum strength, would make the recovery case more credible. A quick reversal below the breakout area, especially alongside renewed ETF outflows or fading altcoin breadth, would increase the probability that this was another relief rally.Crypto momentum has clearly improved. Bitcoin is approaching $70K, Ethereum is outperforming, and major altcoins are participating. That is a healthier setup than a Bitcoin-only bounce. Confirmation now depends on whether the market can defend these gains, continue attracting capital and turn short-term strength into sustained trend repair. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

If accurate, an easing of swap financing costs would mark a meaningful shift in risk appetite toward SK Hynix specifically, and Korean chip names more broadly, after banks moved aggressively in June to curb concentrated leveraged exposure. Lower financing costs make it cheaper for hedge funds and other leveraged investors to re-establish or expand bullish positions via swaps, which could translate into renewed buying pressure on the stock and, by extension, the Kospi given SK Hynix's outsized index weighting. However, given this detail rests on unnamed sources rather than confirmed reporting, it should be treated as directional rather than definitive until corroborated by a named bank or a tier-one outlet. The scale of the reported move, from levels near 1000 basis points down to 150 to 300, would be a dramatic reversal in a short window and warrants some scepticism pending confirmation, particularly since SK Hynix shares have fallen sharply since their peak, which would independently reduce the case for banks to keep financing costs elevated regardless of positioning risk.--- SK Hynix swap financing costs that banks pushed to nearly 15% in June are now said to have roughly halved, though that specific claim remains unconfirmed by named sources or major wires.Summary:Major global banks, including Citigroup, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, BNP Paribas and UBS, sharply raised the cost of swap financing on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics shares in mid-June, according to news wiresFinancing rates rose from around 100 to 200 basis points over SOFR in early May to as much as 750 to 1000 basis points by mid-June, translating to nearly 15% all-in given SOFR levels at the timeMorgan Stanley stopped writing new swaps on the two stocks entirely, while other banks tightened trade sizes and client eligibilityThe move followed a parabolic rally in both stocks tied to the AI boom, with SK Hynix shares more than tripling over the year to that pointSK Hynix completed its roughly 26.5 billion dollar US listing in July, led by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Bank of AmericaReports now say those swap financing costs have since roughly halved, to a range of approximately 150 to 300 basis points over SOFR, though this has not been independently confirmed by named sources or major wire servicesSK Hynix shares have fallen sharply since their peak, prompting the company to move toward additional shareholder returns including buybacks Global banks sharply raised the cost for hedge funds to place leveraged bets on SK Hynix shares in mid-June, as a parabolic rally in the stock forced prime brokers to rein in concentrated exposure to Korea's chip sector. Reports are now suggesting those elevated financing costs have since roughly halved, though that more recent claim has not yet been independently confirmed.The mid-June tightening was well documented at the time. Citigroup, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, along with Bank of America, BNP Paribas and UBS, raised swap financing rates on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics from around 100 to 200 basis points over SOFR in early May to as much as 750 to 1000 basis points by mid-June, a level that translated to financing costs approaching 15% given prevailing SOFR rates. Morgan Stanley went further, halting new swap writing on both stocks entirely. Banks also tightened the size of new trades and restricted which clients could access them, citing balance sheet constraints and the difficulty of finding counterparties willing to take the other side of increasingly one-directional, bullish bets. The move came after SK Hynix shares had more than tripled over the course of the year, driven by surging demand for its high-bandwidth memory chips used in AI accelerators.SK Hynix went on to complete a roughly 26.5 billion dollar listing on Nasdaq in early July, led by the same four banks, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Bank of America, that are now reportedly easing swap terms. The stock has since pulled back sharply from its highs, prompting the company to signal additional shareholder returns, including buybacks, as it works to shore up its share price.The more recent report says swap financing costs on SK Hynix's Korean shares have now fallen to roughly 150 to 300 basis points over SOFR, effectively halving from June's peak. If accurate, that would reflect banks becoming more comfortable extending leverage again as the stock's rally has cooled and positioning risk has eased. However, this specific claim has not been corroborated by any named bank or confirmed independently through Bloomberg, Reuters or other tier-one wires, and should be treated as a developing report rather than an established fact pending further confirmation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is a domestic financial stability story for Russia rather than one with a direct read-through for Western asset prices, but it carries meaningful signal value for anyone tracking the sustainability of Moscow's war financing. A sustained deposit exodus of this scale tightens the funding base available to Russian banks just as they are already carrying a heavy load of state-directed lending to defence industries, raising the risk of a domestic liquidity squeeze that could eventually force more aggressive intervention, whether through deposit restrictions, capital controls, or the kind of confiscatory measures Russians are already anticipating. For traders positioning around sanctions and secondary market risk, the dismissal of a senior state economist for publicly doubting Russia's ability to sustain the war adds to a growing list of signals, alongside widening budget deficits and collapsing bond issuance, that domestic financial strain is becoming harder for the Kremlin to manage quietly. Russians have pulled around 24.4 billion euros from the banking system so far this year on fears the Kremlin could seize deposits to fund the war, a warning a top state economist made just before he was dismissed.Summary:Russians withdrew around 24.4 billion euros from the country's banking system in the first seven months of the year, according to Euronews, as Ukrainian drone strikes and fears of state seizure of deposits deepened the economic crisisData from the Banks.ru financial marketplace shows withdrawals accelerating since early March, with around 300 billion roubles, roughly 3.05 billion euros, leaving accounts each monthFive of Russia's seven largest banks have recorded net deposit outflows, led by Gazprombank, which lost close to 3.04 billion euros, or 10.8% of its total deposits, over four months, and Rosselkhozbank, which shed more than 15% of its depositsThe fear is grounded in recent state action, including the transfer of an estimated 44.3 billion euros in private assets to state control last year and the seizure of assets linked to agribusiness billionaire Vadim Moshkovich in JuneTotal cash in circulation rose by around 6.53 billion euros in July alone, the largest monthly increase this year, with a further 300 billion roubles withdrawn in the first half of AugustAndrei Klepach, chief economist at state development corporation VEB, was dismissed after questioning publicly whether Russia can sustain a prolonged warRussia's GDP grew just 0.3% in the first half of the year, down from 1.2% over the same period last year, according to Kremlin data that cannot be independently verified Russians withdrew around 24.4 billion euros from the country's banking system in the first seven months of this year, according to Euronews, as Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries and logistics infrastructure deepened an economic crisis and fear spread that the Kremlin could move to freeze or nationalise private deposits to help fund the war in Ukraine.Data from the Banks.ru financial marketplace shows demand for cash rising steadily since early March, with roughly 300 billion roubles, about 3.05 billion euros, leaving Russian bank accounts every month. Five of the country's seven largest banks have recorded net outflows of individual deposits. Gazprombank has been hit hardest, losing close to 3.04 billion euros, or 10.8% of its total deposits, over four months, while Rosselkhozbank shed more than 15% of its deposit base. Alfa-Bank, Russia's largest private lender, lost around 1.82 billion euros, equivalent to 5.6% of deposits, while Sovcombank and VTB recorded smaller outflows. Sberbank initially held steady but has since seen significant withdrawals too, while T-Bank was the exception, posting a deposit increase over the period.The panic is rooted in concrete developments rather than speculation alone. Russian prosecutors transferred an estimated 44.3 billion euros in private assets to state control last year, and authorities seized roughly 6.5 billion euros in assets linked to agribusiness billionaire Vadim Moshkovich in June. At the same time, Putin has been extracting what officials describe as voluntary donations from oligarchs, funnelling hundreds of billions of roubles into the federal budget by mid-August, according to the Russian business daily Vedomosti. Large companies are also moving money beyond the reach of domestic regulators, with more than 9.4 billion US dollars flowing out of Russia's banking system in the second quarter of this year alone, central bank data show.The scale of the current exodus surpasses the wave of withdrawals seen after the 2022 invasion, when the central bank temporarily raised interest rates to 20% and imposed capital controls to stabilise the system. Those measures were later lifted and the rush subsided, but the current trend has proven larger and more sustained. It comes as Russia's broader economic position deteriorates, with GDP expanding just 0.3% in the first half of the year, down from 1.2% over the same period last year, according to Kremlin data that cannot be independently verified. Andrei Klepach, chief economist at the state development corporation VEB, was dismissed over the weekend after questioning publicly whether Russia could sustain a prolonged war, telling a Moscow Exchange forum in May that "we will not win the competition in this war of attrition," a comment that has taken on added weight as the financial strain on ordinary Russians and the banking system continues to build.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The unemployment rate's move to 4.5% is a genuine miss against 4.4% forecasts and takes the jobless rate to its highest level since late 2021, a signal likely to firm up expectations that the RBA has room to pause its hiking bias rather than push through further increases in the near term. That said, the softness is not uniform: full-time employment actually rose in July, the entire decline was driven by part-time roles, and the three-month average pace of employment growth still sits at a reasonably firm 34k, with the three-month average jobless rate unchanged at 4.4%. That combination points to a labour market that is softening gradually rather than deteriorating sharply, which should give the RBA room to assess the cumulative effect of its policy settings without feeling pressured into an immediate response either way. The Australian dollar is likely to come under some pressure given the scale of today's headline miss, though the sizeable upward revision to June's data should temper the reaction somewhat.--- Australian employment unexpectedly fell in July and the jobless rate climbed to its highest since late 2021, though the decline was driven entirely by part-time roles and June's print was revised sharply higher, pointing to gradual rather than sharp labour market softening.Summary:Employment fell 15.8k in July, against expectations for a modest rise, while June's employment gain was revised up to 80.2k from the initial 76.3k estimateThe unemployment rate rose to 4.5% from 4.4%, its highest level since late 2021, while the participation rate slipped to 66.9% from 67.0%The employment-to-population ratio fell 0.2% to 63.9%The entire employment decline was driven by part-time roles, which fell 32.1k, while full-time employment rose 16.3kHours worked fell 0.6% m/mOn a three-month average basis, employment growth still runs at +34k, while the three-month average unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.4%Employment has risen 145.8k so far this year Australian employment unexpectedly fell in July after a bumper gain in June, with the unemployment rate climbing to its highest level since late 2021 and suggesting there is more slack building in the labour market than previously thought, according to data released Thursday.Employment dropped 15.8k in the month, confounding expectations for a further rise following June's outsized gain, which was itself revised up to 80.2k from the initial 76.3k estimate, alongside a stronger full-time component. The unemployment rate rose to 4.5% from 4.4%, while the participation rate eased to 66.9% from 67.0% and the employment-to-population ratio fell 0.2%  to 63.9%. Because the drop in participation partly offset the fall in employment, the unemployment rate only edged higher at the second decimal place, a detail that tempers the headline move somewhat.The composition of the decline is notable. The entire fall in employment was driven by part-time roles, which dropped 32.1k, while full-time employment actually rose 16.3k over the month. Hours worked fell 0.6% on the month, adding to signs of a softer labour market even as the underlying full-time trend held up. The employment-to-population ratio and month-to-month swings in the data are known to be volatile indicators, and taken together with the sizeable upward revision to June, the report reads as a labour market that is softening gradually rather than one that has turned genuinely loose.That reading is reinforced by the three-month trend, where average employment growth still sits at 34.2k and the average unemployment rate has been unchanged at 4.4%, both considerably steadier than the single-month numbers suggest. Year to date, employment has grown 145.8k, an improvement on the 104.9k added over the same period last year. Today's data gives the Reserve Bank of Australia additional time to assess how its policy settings are flowing through to the economy, with the gradual, rather than sharp, nature of the softening likely to keep the central bank in no rush to shift its current stance.The bank next meets end-September: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian June 2026 jobs report, just the numbers here on this post. Rising unemployment, falling jobs the twin headline. I'll have more to come on this separately, details an implication etc. Here:Australia's jobless rate climbs to a near four year high in July This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.7-day reverse repurchase operation volume zero againzero also in overnights 327.4 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos matured todaynet withdrawal was 327.4 billion yuanEarlier:China's 5 year and 1 year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remain at 3.5% and 3% respectively This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China left its loan prime rates unchanged on Thursday, holding the one-year rate at its current level and the five-year rate, the benchmark for mortgages, steady as well. The decision confounded a Reuters analysis earlier this week that had flagged a surprise cut as a live possibility, even as broad-based stimulus has historically run against Beijing's instincts:Analysts say that a surprise China LPR cut cannot be ruled out this weekThe case for easing had appeared to build through a run of weak data, including a July industrial output decline, softer than expected retail sales, extending house price falls, and cooling PMI readings, alongside a record contraction in bank lending. Premier Li Qiang had called for stabilising external demand, which analysts noted has held up mainly on AI-related exports even as domestic consumption stayed weak.Thursday's hold suggests policymakers are still favouring a wait-and-see approach over immediate monetary easing, despite the yuan's resilience near a three and a half year high against the dollar giving the central bank ample room to absorb any rate cut-related depreciation. Market watchers still broadly expect some form of stimulus this year, though the decision reinforces expectations that any meaningful move may not land until after October's Fifth Plenum, narrowing the window to hit this year's growth target.What the LPR is:The Loan Prime Rate is China's benchmark for domestic lending, set monthly by the People's Bank of China based on submissions from a panel of banks, and used as the reference rate for pricing most new loans across the economy. There are two tenors: the 1-year LPR, which anchors most new and outstanding corporate and household lending, and the 5-year LPR, which underpins mortgage pricing specifically.It replaced the old benchmark lending rate system in 2019 as part of China's shift toward a more market-oriented rate-setting mechanism, though in practice the PBOC still heavily influences it through its Medium-term Lending Facility rate, which effectively sets the floor banks price their LPR submissions against.How long since the last change:Both tenors were last cut on May 20, 2025, when the 1-year LPR was lowered to 3.0% and the 5-year LPR to 3.5%. Since then, the PBOC has held both rates unchanged at every monthly fixing, with July 2026 marking the 14th consecutive month without a move. That puts Thursday's decision at roughly 15 months since the last change if rates hold again, or the first cut in that stretch if the surprise move discussed in the note materialises. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The disproportion between the size of Wednesday's move and the size of the underlying policy change is the key signal for positioning. A genuinely technical liquidity adjustment would be expected to produce a technical, contained market reaction, not a three percent single-day jump in gold and a fresh three-month low for the dollar. That gap suggests the buyback announcement functioned as a confirmation event for a debasement thesis markets were already pricing, rather than as new information in its own right, which has implications beyond gold. If investors are increasingly filtering fiscal and monetary policy signals through a currency-purchasing-power lens rather than a pure interest-rate lens, that changes how future Treasury interventions, deficit data, and Fed commentary are likely to be received, with outsized reactions becoming more likely rather than less as the debasement narrative gains adherents.---Earlier:A radical Bessent, panicking with big Treasury bond buyback move, craters the dollarAs it happened:US Treasury is increasing the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated securitiesMore:ICYMI - HUGE news: US Treasury's giant bond buyback boost sinks dollar, lifts stocksDeutsche Bank sees 4 reasons Treasury buyback move is dollar negative (ps. Fed hike too?)Bessent's panic move risks reigniting rate hike bets, hands Fed hawks new ammunition--- Gold's reaction to Wednesday's Treasury buyback was far bigger than the policy itself justified, and analysts say that gap points to a resurfacing dollar debasement narrative rather than a simple rates story.Summary:Gold surged more than 3% and the dollar fell to a three-month low after the Treasury said it would increase its long-dated bond buybacks by $2 billion per operation, a change some rates traders have described as marginal relative to the roughly $31 trillion Treasury marketA rates trader at Neuberger Berman questioned whether an incremental $2 billion per buyback genuinely justified the scale of the yield move that followedThe reaction lands alongside a broader dollar debasement narrative that has been gaining traction in recent days, with the dollar index slipping below the 100 level and July's budget deficit reported at a record 432 billion dollarsSeveral major banks, including Goldman Sachs, Citi and JPMorgan, have used debasement trade language in their research through 2026, reflecting record global debt levels and persistent fiscal deficitsGold's resilience earlier in the year despite elevated real yields, a combination that would traditionally weigh on the metal, has already been cited as evidence that structural, fiscal-driven buying is playing a larger role than short-term rate differentials alone Gold's reaction to the Treasury's bond buyback expansion on Wednesday was far larger than the policy change itself would typically justify, and that gap is fuelling renewed talk of a dollar debasement trade rather than a simple rates story.The scale mismatch is the starting point for the argument. Treasury's move increased the maximum size of its long-dated buyback operations by $2 billion, a change a rates trader at Neuberger Berman questioned as barely material relative to a Treasury market worth roughly $31 trillion. Yet the announcement was followed by a near 10 basis point drop in 30-year yields, a 0.8% slide in the dollar index, and a gold rally of more than 3%. When a market reacts far more forcefully than the underlying policy substance would suggest, it is typically a sign that investors are treating the news as confirmation of a broader thesis already in play, rather than reacting to the mechanics on their own terms.That broader thesis is dollar debasement, a narrative that has been building momentum independently of Wednesday's announcement. The dollar index had already slipped below the 100 level in the days prior, while July's budget deficit came in at a record 432 billion dollars, according to figures cited in recent commodity market coverage. Several major banks, including Goldman Sachs, Citi and JPMorgan, have adopted debasement trade language in their research through 2026, citign mix of elevated real yields and persistent fiscal deterioration, a shift from the term's origins in more fringe economic commentary.The framing also helps explain a puzzle that has persisted through much of the year: gold's resilience even during stretches when elevated real yields would traditionally have weighed on the metal. That resilience has been attributed to structural buying, including sustained central bank accumulation, that behaves differently from the tactical, rate-sensitive flows that typically drive short-term price action. Wednesday's move fits that pattern. Rather than a fresh catalyst on its own, the Treasury's buyback announcement appears to have acted as a trigger that let an already-building debasement narrative express itself forcefully in a single trading session, a dynamic likely to make gold, silver and the dollar increasingly sensitive to any further signals on US fiscal policy or Federal Reserve independence in the sessions ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Coming up today:Analysts say that a surprise China LPR cut cannot be ruled out this week0115 GMT / 2115 US Eastern time ---The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The scale of the beat, both on exports and the narrower than expected trade deficit, adds to the case that Japan's growth momentum is broadening beyond domestic demand, which should support the yen at the margin and feed into the BOJ's ongoing debate over the timing of further policy normalization. The semiconductor equipment shipment surge is the standout detail for regional equity markets, reinforcing a narrative of AI-driven capital expenditure flowing through to Japanese suppliers even as concerns persist elsewhere about the durability of AI spending. The petroleum import surge, however, is a direct consequence of the Iran war's impact on oil prices, and points to a growing terms-of-trade drag on Japan from the conflict that could partially offset the export strength if crude prices continue climbing. With GDP growth accelerating to 0.7% year on year in the second quarter, today's data should reinforce the case for the BOJ to stay on a gradual hiking path.---Earlier, just the data:Japan July 2026 exports and imports both higher than expected--- Japan's exports notched their fastest growth since October 2022 in July, powered by a 49.1% jump in semiconductor equipment shipments, even as the Iran war drove petroleum import costs sharply higher.Summary:Japan's exports rose 23.2% year on year in July, beating economists' forecast of 19.9% polled by Reuters and accelerating for a fifth consecutive month, the fastest pace since October 2022Imports climbed 27.8% year on year, also topping the 26.5% estimate and marking the highest level since November 2022The trade balance came in at a deficit of 634.5 billion yen, narrower than the 680 billion yen deficit expected, though wider than June's 409.9 billion yen shortfallSemiconductor equipment shipments jumped 49.1% by value, reflecting continued demand tied to the artificial intelligence boomExports to China, Japan's largest trading partner, rose 25.8%, while shipments to the US climbed 22% and to the EU rose 19.1%Petroleum imports surged 87.8% by value as the Iran war pushed oil prices higherJapan's economy grew 0.7% year on year in the second quarter, up from 0.5% in the first quarter, with exports cited as a key support for that acceleration Japan's exports accelerated for a fifth consecutive month in July, beating expectations and posting their fastest growth since October 2022, as semiconductor shipments continued to power the country's trade performance.Exports rose 23.2% year on year, well ahead of the 19.9% growth economists polled by Reuters had forecast and above June's 19.3% pace. The standout contributor was semiconductor equipment, where shipments jumped 49.1% by value, a surge the data attributes to robust demand tied to the ongoing artificial intelligence investment boom. By destination, exports to China, Japan's largest trading partner, rose 25.8%, while shipments to the United States climbed 22% and exports to the European Union increased 19.1%. Broader shipments to Asia rose 24.5% on the year.Imports also outpaced forecasts, climbing 27.8% year on year against an expected 26.5% gain and marking their highest level since November 2022. A significant driver was petroleum, where import values surged 87.8% as the Iran war pushed oil prices sharply higher over the period. The combination left Japan's trade balance at a deficit of 634.5 billion yen, narrower than the 680 billion yen shortfall expected but wider than June's 409.9 billion yen deficit, as the export beat was not enough to fully offset the jump in energy import costs.The strength in exports has been an important pillar behind Japan's broader economic performance. GDP grew 0.7% year on year in the second quarter, an acceleration from 0.5% growth in the first three months of the year, with trade cited as a key support for that pickup. With chip-related demand still running hot and exports to all three of Japan's major trading partners accelerating, the July data points to a manufacturing and technology sector that continues to outperform even as the country's energy import bill climbs on the back of an unresolved conflict thousands of miles away. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese trade data for July 2026. Imports +27.8% y/yexpected +26.5%, prior +25.4%Exports +23.2% y/yexpected +19.9%, prior +19.3%Trade Balance -634.5bn JPYexpected -680bn, prior -409.9bnExports to Asia +24.5% year/yearto China +25.8% year/yearto U.S. +22% year/yearto EU +19.1% year/yearDetails added here:AI boom powers Japan's exports as semiconductor shipments surge 49% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UBS's framing suggests the path of least resistance for equities remains higher into year-end, provided the current run of limited near-term catalysts holds through Nvidia's earnings and the Jackson Hole symposium. The bank's read on the Fed is the more contestable element, with markets currently pricing in more than one hike over the next year while UBS expects softer payrolls, inflation and consumer spending data to keep policymakers on hold instead. That gap between market pricing and UBS's own base case leaves room for volatility around each new data point, particularly given this week's hawkish FOMC minutes complicate the softer-data thesis the bank is leaning on. The bank's emphasis on broadening earnings participation, rather than gains concentrated in a handful of mega-cap names, is also notable, since it points toward a rotation trade rather than a continuation of the narrow leadership that has characterized much of the AI-driven rally.--This from analysts at UBS is from prior to the big bond buyback announcement:Bessent's hair on fire:A radical Bessent, panicking with big Treasury bond buyback move, craters the dollarAs it happened:US Treasury is increasing the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated securitiesMore:ICYMI - HUGE news: US Treasury's giant bond buyback boost sinks dollar, lifts stocksDeutsche Bank sees 4 reasons Treasury buyback move is dollar negative (ps. Fed hike too?)Bessent's panic move risks reigniting rate hike bets, hands Fed hawks new ammunitionbut serves as useful guidcance nonetheless. UBS argues resilient growth, broadening earnings strength and a Fed that stays on hold outweigh a stack of geopolitical risks, keeping the bank constructive on global equities into year-end.Summary:UBS notes the VIX has fallen to its lowest level of 2026, with limited near-term catalysts likely to persist ahead of Nvidia's earnings and the Jackson Hole symposiumThe bank flags elevated geopolitical risks, including renewed conflict involving Israel and Hezbollah, ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, and intensified Russia-Ukraine attacksUBS says the US economy remains resilient despite weaker July retail sales and higher oil pricesCorporate earnings have delivered strong positive surprises, with improving profitability and broader participation across the equity market rather than a narrow set of leadersThe bank describes AI investment as robust, supported by encouraging signs that monetisation is progressingWhile markets currently price in more than one Fed hike over the next year, UBS expects softer payrolls, inflation and consumer spending data to keep the Fed on holdUBS maintains a constructive outlook for risk assets into year-end and favours diversified global equity exposure UBS has reiterated a constructive stance on risk assets heading into year-end, arguing that resilient US growth, stronger corporate earnings and a Federal Reserve likely to stay on hold should outweigh a build-up of geopolitical risks weighing on sentiment.The bank points to the VIX falling to its lowest level of 2026 as a signal that near-term catalysts remain limited, a dynamic it expects to persist ahead of Nvidia's upcoming earnings report and the Jackson Hole economic symposium. That relative calm comes despite a notable list of geopolitical flashpoints UBS flags as still live, including renewed conflict involving Israel and Hezbollah, continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, and intensified attacks in the Russia-Ukraine war. Even so, the bank argues the US economy has proven resilient, holding up despite a weaker July retail sales print and higher oil prices.Corporate earnings are doing much of the heavy lifting in UBS's constructive case. The bank says the current reporting season has delivered strong positive surprises, with improving profitability and participation broadening out across the market rather than remaining concentrated in a narrow group of mega-cap names. UBS also points to continued strength in artificial intelligence investment, noting encouraging signs that monetisation of that spending is progressing, a factor it views as supportive for the broader technology-led rally.On monetary policy, UBS strikes a notably different tone from current market pricing. While futures markets are pricing in more than one Fed rate hike over the coming year, the bank expects softer payrolls, inflation and consumer spending data to allow the central bank to remain on hold rather than tighten further. That view underpins UBS's broader conclusion: resilient growth, stronger earnings, and what it sees as a less hawkish path for the Fed than markets currently expect should together support further gains in global equities, even as geopolitical risks stay elevated. The bank says it favours diversified global equity exposure as the best way to capture that upside while managing the risks it has flagged. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is a significant escalation in rhetoric even by the standards of the past several weeks, and oil prices are the asset most directly exposed to it. A threat to sanction any country, bank, or shipping entity aiding Iran raises the risk of further disruption to whatever flows are currently moving through informal or covert channels, including the kind of quiet Hormuz shipping activity reported by Axios earlier. If the measures target intermediaries used by China, Russia, or Gulf states to move Iranian crude, the risk skews toward tighter effective supply regardless of what happens to formal Hormuz transit volumes, which would support crude prices further. The announcement also raises geopolitical risk premium broadly, adding to a market already pricing in elevated Middle East tension, and increases the chance of retaliatory rhetoric or action from Tehran in the sessions ahead.- Trump has declared an all-out economic campaign against Iran, warning any nation or institution that offers it a financial lifeline will face severe consequences of its own.Summary:President Trump posted on Truth Social announcing what he described as the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country, directed at IranHe said Iran's navy is gone, its air force destroyed, its military factories reduced to rubble, and its currency worthlessTrump warned that any country allowing its financial institutions, businesses, airports or government entities to provide Iran with any form of support will itself face severe economic consequencesHe specifically named oil smuggling, currency swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries and front companies as channels that must stop immediatelyTrump called on US allies to join in isolating Iran and described the measures as historic steps intended to cripple the country's ability to project terror abroadHe reiterated that Iran will never be permitted to acquire a nuclear weapon President Trump has announced what he described as a sweeping new economic campaign against Iran, escalating rhetoric against Tehran and warning that any nation or institution that helps sustain its economy will face severe consequences of its own.In a post on Truth Social, Trump said Iran had repeatedly been given the opportunity to reach a deal and had failed to take it, and that he was therefore launching what he called the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country. He described Iran's military as effectively dismantled, saying its navy has been eliminated, its air force destroyed, its military factories reduced to rubble, and its currency rendered worthless, characterizing the country as hanging by a thread.The core of the announcement was a warning aimed well beyond Iran's own borders. Trump said any country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports or government entities to provide any form of lifeline to Iran would itself face significant economic consequences. He listed specific mechanisms he wants shut down immediately, including oil smuggling, currency swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries and front companies, and said those involved know who they are. Trump framed the initiative as an economic D-Day and called on US allies to join Washington in isolating and defeating what he called the Iran threat, describing the coming measures as historic steps designed to cripple Tehran's ability to project terror internationally.The announcement lands against a backdrop of already elevated tension in the region, with oil prices having climbed for several consecutive sessions on unresolved uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz shipping and the broader state of the US-Iran conflict. A push to target intermediaries facilitating Iranian oil exports and financial transactions would add a new enforcement dimension to that pressure, layering secondary sanctions risk on top of the direct military and shipping disruptions already shaping the market. Trump closed the post by reiterating a long-standing US red line, stating that Iran will never be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Questions over the Fed chairman's contact with the White House add a fresh layer of uncertainty to a rates outlook that is already unsettled following the hawkish (but dated) FOMC minutes and the Treasury's buyback intervention. Any perception that Warsh's decisions are being shaped by the administration, rather than by incoming data, would undermine the credibility that currently anchors market expectations for the Fed's reaction function, particularly around the timing of any future hike. This story is unlikely to move markets on its own in the near term, but it feeds a broader narrative of an administration increasingly willing to lean on economic institutions, alongside the Treasury's own aggressive intervention in the bond market this week. A sustained credibility question over Fed independence would typically show up first in longer-dated inflation expectations and term premium, rather than in immediate price action.--- Senate Democrats want Kevin Warsh to explain a gap between his public calendars and reported repeated contact with Trump, reviving questions about Fed independence just as the central bank navigates a hawkish rate debate.Summary:Four Senate Democrats, led by Chris Van Hollen, sent Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh a letter Wednesday asking him to publicly disclose his conversations with President TrumpThe letter follows Wall Street Journal (gated) reporting that Warsh and Trump have spoken repeatedly since Warsh became Fed chairman, despite his publicly released calendars showing no such callsThe senators said undisclosed contact risks creating a perception that the White House is shaping monetary policyWarsh did not directly answer questions on the matter when pressed by Van Hollen at a hearing last monthThe senators asked Warsh to either confirm in writing that he has had no contact with Trump since being sworn in, or amend his calendars to disclose any callsWhite House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett downplayed the calls in early August, saying Trump does not pressure Warsh on rate decisions, while Trump himself said he had spoken to Warsh only once, brieflyWarsh's predecessor Jerome Powell logged his calls with Trump to the minute and disclosed several in-person meetings, a contrast the report highlights against the current disclosure gap Four Senate Democrats have formally asked Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to publicly disclose his conversations with President Trump, according to the Wall Street Journal, following the paper's reporting that the two have spoken repeatedly since Warsh took the helm of the central bank despite his official calendars showing no record of such contact.The letter, sent Wednesday and led by Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, was signed by three other Democrats on the committee that oversees the Fed. The senators argued that undisclosed contact between the president and the Fed chairman risks creating "a perception that the White House is shaping monetary policy." According to the Journal, Warsh did not directly answer questions on the matter when Van Hollen raised it at a hearing last month, and the senators noted the lack of disclosure is made more conspicuous by the fact that his calendars, which cover the first five weeks of his term beginning in May, do list meetings with other senior White House economic officials. A Fed spokesperson told the Journal the central bank has not changed its practice of releasing monthly appointment calendars with a one-month delay.The senators asked Warsh to either confirm in writing that he has had no contact with Trump since being sworn in, or to amend his released calendars to reflect any calls that took place. The report notes that informal contact between presidents and Fed chairs has some historical precedent, though it has grown far less common in recent decades, a shift traced back to Richard Nixon's pressure campaign on then-chairman Arthur Burns, which preceded the inflation surge of the 1970s. By the 1980s, communication between the White House and the Fed typically ran through the Treasury secretary instead.After the Journal's initial reporting on the calls, White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett sought to play down their significance, telling Bloomberg Television that Warsh and Trump have a long-standing relationship and talk about the economy regularly, while stressing that Trump does not pressure Warsh on rate decisions. Trump himself later disputed the extent of the reporting, saying he had spoken with Warsh only once, briefly, a few days earlier. The Journal draws a contrast with Warsh's predecessor, Jerome Powell, who logged his calls with Trump down to the minute and disclosed several in-person meetings during his tenure. The episode adds to a broader pattern the Journal has tracked of Trump testing the boundaries of central bank independence more assertively than recent predecessors, including remarks made shortly before Warsh's swearing-in when Trump publicly urged him to act independently, a notable shift from earlier comments in which the president said he wanted a Fed chair willing to consult with him directly on rate decisions.Earlier:Jackson Hole hype outruns Warsh playbook of saying as little as possible This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.