Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsGlobal Assets have all pushed for the pricing of a now decisive peace process between the US and Iran after two full months of ceasefireStock Markets have all exploded to new highs, but this also adds to the expectations of a concrete deal ahead Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.Global asset prices are now being driven by the fast-moving peace process between the United States and Iran. After two months of a fragile ceasefire, the situation has quickly moved from a tense standoff to real progress toward a formal agreement. This shift is causing major investors in North America and around the world to move their money in response.The main reason for this big change came on Monday, when President Trump announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two countries – For those who haven’t heard the term, an MoU is a non-binding agreement that sets out the basic terms and expectations for a future treaty. This agreement gives both sides 30 days to fully reopen the important Strait of Hormuz and includes economic concessions to Iran to help the talks succeed. Even though there were a few minor military incidents overnight, Wall Street is largely ignoring them. Traders are focused on the Memorial Day announcement and believe the push for peace is strong enough to overcome small setbacks. Oil 4H Chart. May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView This breakthrough has had a major impact on energy markets. WTI Crude Oil prices have dropped sharply, falling back to the low $90 range. Prices have stayed around these lows all week, showing that a large part of the war anxiety pricing is already fading.As energy costs fall and supply chain risks fade, major North American stock indices have surged to new record highs, particularly Nasdaq reaching 30,000. Investors are optimistic right now, but this rapid rise means there is no room for mistakes in the peace process. The market is now counting on a clear and successful final agreement.Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Cryptos fail to generate momentum continuous confusion – BTC and Ethereum (ETH) Technical OutlookMarkets are sending mixed feelings on the peace Deal – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsThe Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance in the past 10 days – May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Stock Indices are once again exploding higher, with Japan putting the most impressive catch up to its past week losses and Nasdaq following close.Overall, the rebound is global with the Strait of Hormuz new largely soothing investors.Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView The action in the US Dollar is quite contradicting in recent days, but is starting to tilt more to one side.After bouncing above 99.00 last week, the DXY led a few tests within the 500 pips region (99.00 to 99.50) and after yesterday's bounce, sellers are appearing at the 4H 50-period MA indicating a failed rally – More developments will be awaited to see how this really unfolds.Check out our past day US Dollar analysis to learn more:The Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, May 27, 2026 - Source: TradingView The Dollar is pursuing its rebound against FX Majors but is currently losing some steam as the conflict looks to be ending soon – Crude Oil maintains high correlation to the petrodollar, hence traders will need to continue to observe this development.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, May 27, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Canadian Dollar is losing quite some momentum against most of its FX peers except for the Aussie Dollar, with Crude Oil lower which directly affects the Loonie.The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may diminish Canadian Oil export demand. USD/CAD 4H Chart, May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView For those following the weekly update, you may have tracked one of the clearest patterns in FX in recent times:USD/CAD maintains its 1.3550 to 1.3950 range, with the action continuing to rebound within as we speak, approaching the upper end of it – Watch reactions to the 1.3850 micro resistance.Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.3850 Resistance1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance (range highs)1.3950 Range high resistanceSupport Levels:1.38 mini-Pivot +/- 15 pips1.3750 Momentum Support1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support now Pivot (4H 50-period MA)1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)1.35 Key Psychological SupportEnd-January Lows 1.34820US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar It is the final Mid-Week update, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website to learn more.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets bounced at the open but are now showing more mixed signs as a few contention points emergeAfter flashing to new all-time highs, a pullback is currently ongoing particularly in the DJIAExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock markets jumped sharply at the opening bell, but now the signals are mixed as new diplomatic issues come to light.The early surge in equity futures came from a more optimistic geopolitical outlook, mainly after President Trump's weekend announcement predicting the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the next 30 days. But as traders come back from their Memorial Day break and more money enters the market, it is clear that reaching a formal peace is more complicated than the headlines first made it seem.Crude Oil fell 7% during yesterday's quiet holiday session, but energy prices are rebounding strongly today. Ongoing issues, especially about frozen Iranian funds and where enriched nuclear material will go, are pushing WTI crude higher. This sharp rise in energy costs is adding back to prior worries on the feasibility of a proper peace deal and causing trouble in the wider financial markets.As a result, after briefly reaching new all-time highs before the market opened, the main US indices are now pulling back from their morning highs, particularly the Dow.Now, let’s take a look at the intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Daily Market Performance (12:07). May 26, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Now, let’s take a look at the intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:The Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewChart alert: AUD/NZD rally set to continue after hitting 13-year highAsia open: Trump-Iran peace optimism sparks equity rally as sticky U.S. inflation risks loom largeCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:10) – Source: TradingView – May 26, 2026 Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Watch out to see if the 50,400 to 50,500 support holds or breaks – The action becomes short-term bearish below the area.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsIntraday Pivot 50,800 to 50,900Memorial Day resistance 51,100 to 51,200Support LevelsFebruary ATH Pivot 50,400 to 50,500 (Short-term Bearish below)Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (mid-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq wicked to the 30,000 milestone (30,057 on the CFD) but is now slightly retracting, showing a hesitation hammer.Look for breakouts on its upper and lower bounds – 29,730.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels29,850 - 30,000 Memorial Day ATH ResistanceCurrent ATH 30,057 on the CFDSupport Levels29,500 - 29,600 Pivot29,100 - 29,250 momentum support (short-term bearish below)28,000 minor supportPrior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is somewhat retracting off of its new record highs established during the morning session.The Momentum is turning more bearish as we speak a bulls will have to step up at the current level to avoid a larger pullback to the 4H 50-period MA (7,448).S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,550 Memorial Day ATH Resistance7,525 Past week's ATH Resistance now pivotCurrent ATH 7,557Support Levels7,450 - 7,460 Minor Support (Short-term bearish below – 4H 50-period MA (7,448)7,400 Key support 7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracementPivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US stock markets opened with strong optimism, but other asset classes are not as confident. While equities are rising, catching up to their previous session's futures runs, currency and commodity markets remain cautious about the unresolved issues in the latest diplomatic talks.The overall geopolitical outlook seems positive, as both sides have agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the next 30 days and work toward a long-term peace process within 60 days. Still, a final agreement is proving difficult. Reports show that Iranian negotiators are stuck on key issues, especially the release of frozen funds and where Tehran's enriched nuclear stockpiles will go.Ongoing diplomatic tensions are causing a quick shift in the commodities market, leading to a rebound in Crude oil prices, especially Brent. The continued geopolitical risks and concerns about inflation are giving strong support to the US Dollar, the subject of this morning's analysis Current Session's FX Performance – Courtesy of Finviz. May 26, 2026 Even though hopes for peace are pushing risk assets to new highs, the US Dollar remains strong, going against the general trend. We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD to spot how the recent peace flows have already impacted the FX Market and where to look next. Discover:Asia open: Bond yield breakout threatens tech rallyTrump cancels planned attacks on Iran, Stocks rally – Market reactionsThe Kevin Warsh repricing and Inflation points – Markets Weekly OutlookDollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is currently consolidating between 99.00 and 99.50, a much higher range compared to the end-April trading (closer to 98.00).Bulls are actually pushing the action above the 4H 50-period MA as we speak, and this points to a coming test of the upper bound of the range.With the RSI momentum also picking up, the action looks to be more bullish for the US dollar in coming times – Watch for reactions at the 99.50 to see if momentum continues to pick up from there.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance Levels99.40 to 99.50 Resistance (range highs)Initial War Spike 99.68100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance ZoneWar Highs 100.544Support Levels99.00 Intraday Pivot (range lows)98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot now supportSupport 97.40 to 97.60 (triple bottom)2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportRange lows at Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00GBP/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels GBP/USD 4H Chart, May 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView GBP/USD kept rallying above the pivot zone but stalled right at its 4H 200-period (1.35).Currently retracing back to the pivot zone, the action is more mixed than fully bearish, hence traders could wait for either a double top (around the MA) or a break below 1.3420 (50-MA) to push for lower action.Any close above the 200-MA adds more bullish momentum.Levels of interest for AUD/USD:Resistance Levels4H 200-period (1.35)December Resistance 1.36 (range highs)pre-FOMC Highs 1.36010Resistance 1.37 zone2025 Resistance around 1.38Support LevelsKey Pivot 1.34 to 1.3440Pivotal Support 1.3280 - 1.331.32 War SupportEUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is rejecting its 4H 50-period MA with the RSI momentum also turning bearish, pointing to more downside ahead.Failing to breach the mid-level of the longer-run bear channel, the lower bound (1.1580) could soon be retested.Any break and close above 1.1660 voids the bear formation.Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance LevelsPivot 1.1635 - 1.16551.17 to 1.1720 March ResistanceResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)1.1830 June 2025 highsSupport Levels1.1580 channel lower bound1.1540 to 1.1580 War Support1.1475 to 1.15 November SupportWar lows 1.1410Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equity markets rallied as optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement boosted risk appetite, driving a sharp pullback in oil prices and renewed buying in Asian and U.S. equities.Despite improving geopolitical sentiment, financial markets continue to price in a “higher for longer” interest-rate environment as sticky U.S. inflation and elevated bond yields reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may still tighten policy later this year.Asia Pacific markets were led by Japan’s strong equity surge and Singapore’s stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP growth. At the same time, policymakers across the region remain highly sensitive to ongoing energy supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.Chart of the day: Hang Seng Index’s potential short-term rebound on sight above 25,267 key short-term support with 25,850 as upside trigger level.Top macro headlines Imminent U.S.-Iran peace deal speculation sparks market turnaround: Global risk appetite surged following a flurry of "optimistic messaging" from U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, suggesting that an imminent peace deal between the United States and Iran is on the horizon. The sudden wave of diplomatic optimism triggered a swift reversal of global concerns about stagflation.Iran downplays imminent pact, citing Hormuz specifics: Countering the initial wave of Washington optimism, Tehran issued a cautious statement clarifying that a possible memorandum of understanding does not yet contain critical specifics regarding the Strait of Hormuz, warning market participants that a comprehensive deal is not immediate.Japan eased market concerns over government finances: Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi said the government will finance its extra budget without increasing bond issuance on a calendar basis. The supplementary budget will total just over 3 trillion yen and will be submitted to parliament as early as next week, with energy subsidies to be a key feature.Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino reaffirmed the BoJ’s rate hike path: BoJ’s Himino, in his testimony to the Diet (Japan’s parliament), highlighted the central bank’s commitment to raising interest rates, while flagging that the timing of the rate hikes will be dependent on Middle East developments that affect Japan’s growth and inflation trend.Key macro themes Geopolitical "whiplash" and energy fragility: Cross-asset markets are currently caught in a sharp tug-of-war between speculative peace breakthroughs and tangible, physical supply realities. While optimistic traders are driving short-covering rallies, independent energy researchers (IEA) warn that global oil inventories are set to reach critical levels by June, potentially sending crude prices soaring past $150/bbl if the Hormuz blockade is not structurally resolved.The repricing of "higher for longer" into active tightening: Before the escalation of the Iran war, macro participants expected two to three Fed rate cuts in 2026. Following a brutal string of sticky consumer price metrics (headline CPI climbing to 3.8% and core PCE expected to edge up to 3.3%), the Fed funds futures market has completely erased easing expectations, pivoting toward an active probability of a Fed interest rate hike by December 2026.The trillion-dollar primary market liquidity drain: The combined arrival of SpaceX's mammoth $75 billion capital call alongside a confidential draft IPO filing from OpenAI signals a structural shift in equity markets. This tech-focused listing boom represents a major real-time test of public liquidity and investor risk appetite.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: U.S. stock index futures pointed higher, buoyed directly by the sudden wave of optimism surrounding the Trump-Iran memorandum. This follows a quiet Memorial Day market closure in the U.S. and UK, where equity sentiment remained strongly constructive despite underlying yield concerns.Fixed Income: Developed bond markets face intense multi-speed pressures despite a softening of oil prices due to a potential peace deal between the US and Iran. U.S. Treasuries remain deeply unanchored, with long-dated yields resting near 2007 highs as the 30-year yield continued to hold at the 5% psychological level.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakened marginally as capital reallocated out of safe-haven cash positions and back into risk-correlated cross-border pairs, offering temporary structural relief to G10 and emerging currencies. AUD (+0.7%), GBP (+0.6%), and EUR (+0.4%) against the USD on Monday, 25 May.Commodities: Crude oil plummeted aggressively, with Brent crude briefly slipping below the critical $100/barrel milestone to click a fresh two-week low as geopolitical war premium leaked out. Conversely, spot gold prices rebounded by 1,3% as a softening greenback triggered a technical bounce to close Monday’s session at $4,570/oz but remained below the 20-day moving average that is acting as near-term resistance at $4,602/oz.Asia Pacific impact Japanese equities explode to all-time highs: Tokyo led global markets in a massive single-session breakout, with the benchmark Nikkei average surging 3% to lock a record high as local allocators aggressively bet on a rapid resolution to the Middle East supply crisis. In today’s Asia opening session, profit-taking activities have emerged in the Japanese stock market as the Nikkei 225 slipped by 0.4%, while other regional benchmark stock indices traded positively, such as the Hang Seng Index (+0.2%), China A50 (+0.2%), and KOSPI (+3.4%), which are showing intraday gains.Singapore Q1 GDP blows past estimates: Backed heavily by the regional AI infrastructure boom, Singapore reported stellar Q1 GDP growth of 6.0% y/y, handily beating consensus expectations. However, the Ministry faces highly mixed forward prospects tied to persistent Middle East maritime shocks.Regional currency stabilization: Parallel to the softening of the greenback, the broader Asia FX complex firmed notably, easing immediate balance-of-payments capital flight risks for energy-importing central banks.Top 4 events to watch today Japan Leading Economic Index Final (Mar) - 1:00 pm SGT Impact: USD/JPY, JPY crosses, Nikkei 225Singapore Industrial Production (Apr) - 1:00 pm SGT (consensus: 12% y/y, Mar: 10.1%) Impact: USD/SGD, SGD crosses, STIUS Conference Board Consumer Confidence (May) - 10:00 pm SGT Impact: USD, US stock indicesUS-Iran peace deal news flows Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - Short-term rebound in Hang Seng Index above April gap support Fig. 1: Hong Kong 33 CFD minor trend as of 26 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The recent 6.6% decline seen in the price actions of the Hong Kong 33 CFD (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) from its intraday high of 26,642 has managed to find support at the early April 2026 gap support of 25,267.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to display short-term bullish momentum conditions after a prior bullish divergence condition at its oversold region flashed out earlier on 22 May 2026.Watch the 25,267 key short-term pivotal support for a potential rebound. A clearance above 25,850 (potential upside trigger) sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 26,080 and 26,210.On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 25,267 invalidates the bullish scenario for a further corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 24,890 and 24,606. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equity markets extended their relief rally as optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement boosted risk appetite, triggering strong gains in Asian and U.S. stock indices while crude oil prices continued to retreat.Japan’s softer-than-expected April inflation data reduced pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy aggressively, reinforcing yen weakness and widening the policy divergence versus the hawkish Federal Reserve.Cooling bond yields and easing geopolitical tensions provided fresh support for growth and technology stocks, while improving labour relations at Samsung Electronics helped reduce concerns over semiconductor supply-chain disruptions.Chart of the day - Nikkei 225 kickstarts new bullish impulsive up move sequence towards new all-time highs above 61,955 key short-term support.Top macro headlines U.S.-Iran peace deal reaches "in progress": Global market sentiment shifted gear to “risk on” dramatically after Iran said the latest proposal from the US has partly bridged the gap between them, increasing the odds of a peace deal.Japan April CPI cools to 4-year low: Japan's core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, rose 1.4% year-on-year in April, coming in softer than market forecasts of 1.7%. Also, the Bank of Japan’s preferred inflation data, the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy), rose at a slower pace of 1.9% y/y versus 2.4% in March. This reading marked the lowest level since July 2024 and fell below the Bank of Japan's 2% target, largely due to government fuel subsidies offsetting the Iran war oil shock.Key macro themes Geopolitical "risk on" volatility unlocked: Capital markets are actively pricing out the prolonged geopolitical risk premium. The temporary pause in Middle East military escalation has triggered immediate short-covering across multiple asset classes, especially boosting airlines and tech while tanking crude oil.Diverging central bank paths: While the Fed minutes signal potential rate hikes due to sticky US inflation, the Bank of Japan finds itself with renewed breathing room. Japan's unexpectedly soft 1.4% y/y core CPI and 1.9% y/y core-core CPI prints suggest less urgency for immediate aggressive tightening, despite the ongoing weakness of the yen.The billion-dollar Tech IPO thaw: Led by SpaceX seeking a $1.75 trillion public footprint and OpenAI moving into confidential prospectus filings, the multi-trillion dollar tech listings boom is shifting structural market liquidity back toward equities.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Global equities experienced a massive relief rally. Wall Street rallied for the second consecutive session with a fresh-all time closing high seen in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The energy sector lagged (-1%). Fixed Income: Sovereign bond yields pulled back, providing much-needed relief from the recent historic debt selloff. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slid for the second consecutive session by 1 bps to 4.57%, and the longer-term 30-year yield fell by 3 bps to 5.09%.FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded almost unchanged on Thursday, 21 May, capped by renewed risk-on appetite. The Japanese yen faced depreciation pressure following the softer-than-expected Japan CPI data, as it probed the 159.10/35 per USD level that may trigger verbal intervention.Commodities: WTI and Brent crude oil saw losses for the second consecutive session, dropping by 1.1% and 0.2% on Wednesday, 21 May, as the geopolitical risk premium from the Middle East conflict evaporated on peace hopes. Meanwhile, spot gold traded almost unchanged at $4,543/oz, below its 20-day moving average ($4,611/oz). Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: Benchmark Asia Pacific stock indices kick-start today’s session on a bullish footing, reinforced by overnight gains seen in the US stock market. Nikkei 225 (+1.8%), Hang Seng Index (+0.5%), KOSPI (+0.5%), ASX 200 (+0.4%), and STI (+0.2%) at this time of writing.Currencies & monetary policy: The Indonesian Rupiah caught a significant bid and strengthened after Bank Indonesia implemented an interest rate hike to defend the currency. Conversely, Japan's unexpectedly soft CPI data gives the Bank of Japan breathing room, further complicating efforts to defend the yen from speculative short selling.Corporate & supply chain: Providing a major tailwind for regional tech, the Samsung union officially suspended its planned strike after reaching a tentative pay deal, easing severe risks to global semiconductor and memory supply chains.Top 3 Events to watch today UK Retail Sales (Apr) - 2:00 pm SGT (consensus: 1.3% y/y, Mar: 1.7%) Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (May) - 10:00 pm SGT Impact: USD, US stock indicesUpdates on U.S.-Iran peace deal Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - Nikkei 225 en route to fresh all-time high Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD minor trend as of 22 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The recent bullish reversal seen on the Japan 225 CFD (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) after a break below and a reintegration back above its 20-day moving average on Wednesday, 20 May 2026, has suggested that a new potential bullish impulsive up move sequence is underway towards new record highs.Watch the 61,955 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the bullish bias. A clearance above the current all-time area of 63,270/788 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 65,010/040 and 66,190/558 (Fibonacci extension clusters).On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 61,955 invalidates the bullish scenario, potentially leading to a minor corrective setback to retest the 20-day moving average at 60,985. Further weakness is possible, with potential to extend towards the next intermediate support at 59,048/58,574. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin retraced from the $80,000 level, along with other altcoins, and they are lagging the US Equities after the latest US-Iran peace draftCryptos have been consolidating for a while, but present interesting technical indications – A trap or an opportunity?Exploring a Technical Analysis and trading levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin has pulled back from the important $80,000 level, and this drop has also affected the wider altcoin market.Right now, cryptocurrencies are somewhat falling behind US stocks after the recent US-Iran peace draft. Nasdaq, normally highly correlated to digital assets, has quickly moved back toward new highs thanks to optimism about diplomacy, but despite the correlations, cryptocurrencies have barely moved.This clear difference shows that digital assets are not following the usual trends in the broader market, at least for now.Cryptocurrencies have been stuck in a long period of relative sideways movement, unable to break out as some traders hoped. This may have been frustrating for those looking for quick gains, but there are still some interesting technical signals to watch. The big question now is whether this slow price action is a warning sign or a chance to buy at a discount. Total Crypto Market Cap – Daily Chart. May 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView The digital asset market has shown resilience by bouncing off important moving averages, even though there has not been a big surge in retail trading. If overall market sentiment remains positive and the peace talks continue to hold, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could soon rally and make up for lost ground compared to tech stocks – But this will depend on if investors can remain hopeful about the deal and its effect. Daily Crypto Performance (16:48). May 21, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Let's dive right into a technical analysis and key trading levels for both Bitcoin and Ethereum to spot if a clear breakout in indeed into play from here. Read More:Stock Markets stall, too early for the deal ? Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsThe deal is still quite unsure, Crude Oil back above $100 – WTI Technical analysisAUD/USD picks up momentum ahead of Australian employment – In-depth FX analysisBitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart and Technical Levels Bitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart, May 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin has broken its recent upward channel that brought the action above $80,000, but lookign at current trading, the action is far from bearish.The pullback stalled right at the 4H 200-period MA ($77,000) and is currently acting as support.Bouncing back above $78,800, the 4H 50 MA, opens the way for a new test of a higher break.On the other hand, bears will want to see a break of the 200 MA with an extension below $75,000.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:4H 200-period MA ($77,000)$75,000 Key long-term Pivot (acting as resistance)$70,000 Short-term momentum Pivot$60,000 to $63,000 Main 2024 support (recent double bottom)$59,935 February LowsResistance Levels:$78,800 the 4H 50 MA$80,000 to $83,000 mini-resistance (entering, bullish above)$82,500 cycle highs$90,000 to $95,000 minor Resistance$98,000 to $100,000 Pivotal ResistanceCurrent ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart and Technical Levels Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart, May 21, 2026– Source: TradingView Ethereum is still showing a somewhat weaker price action than Bitcoin, but is finding support at the bottom of its major Pivot region (~$2,100).Rebounding from here should relaunch better prospects for a rebound, but the action isn't showing much impulse from here.A bounce above $2,200 (50-period MA) should clear the path for more bullish action ahead.For bears, look for a clean break and close below $2,100.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:Pivot Zone Lows $2,100$1,700 to $1,800 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support (testing)$1,744 February 6 lows$1,380 to $1,500 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:4H 50 MA $2,200Mini-Resistance $2,400$2,500 to $2,800 June 2025 Pivotal Resistance$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$4,950 Current new All-time highsThe narrative is easing, but keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global markets staged a strong relief rally after U.S. President Donald Trump signalled that a U.S.-Iran peace deal is entering its “final stages,” triggering a sharp unwind in geopolitical risk premiums and sending oil prices down 5%.NVIDIA delivered blockbuster Q1 earnings with revenue surging 85% year-over-year to US$81.6 billion, but its share price dropped -1.3% in after-hours trading.Federal Reserve policymakers remain concerned about persistent inflation, with the latest Fed minutes showing openness toward potential future rate hikes, even as bond yields temporarily eased from recent multi-decade highs.Chart of the day: AUD/USD bearish reaction after retest on 20-day MA, reversing almost all of Wednesday’s gains. 0.7180 key short-term resistance to maintain intraday bearish sentiment on the Aussie.Top macro headlines U.S.-Iran peace deal reaches "final stages": Global risk sentiment shifted drastically after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States and Iran are in the "final stages" of negotiating a peace deal to end the conflict. Trump previously called off a planned retaliatory strike following a new proposal from Tehran, snapping a multi-day market panic.Nvidia destroys expectations with blowout earnings but its share slides -1.3% after-hours: Chip giant Nvidia reported record-shattering earnings for the April quarter, with sales reaching $81.6 billion (up 85% year-over-year) and net income more than tripling to $58.3 billion. The numbers beat analyst expectations across the board, supporting its position as the world's most valuable publicly listed company at a $5.5 trillion market cap.Fed minutes reveal openness to rate hikes: The newly released minutes from the Federal Reserve's April policy meeting showed that multiple policymakers remain open to an interest rate hike if inflation proves persistent. The committee all but retired the rate-cut debate as structural price pressures linger ahead of incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh taking the helm.SpaceX files for massive history-making IPO: Elon Musk's SpaceX officially filed for its long-awaited initial public offering (IPO). Looking to raise tens of billions of dollars, the mid-June listing is on track to eclipse every other blockbuster IPO in history, splitting its rocket-launch, satellite, and nascent AI units.Japan reactor makers forecast nuclear resurgence: Following a decade-long lull, Japan's top reactor manufacturers are projecting record sales amid a major domestic nuclear power resurgence. Concurrently, Tokyo announced plans to unleash green bonds focused heavily on EV batteries and clean technology.Read more: NVIDIA (NVDA) Technical: Potential mean reversion decline below 236.54 as earnings loomKey macro themes Geopolitical "risk on" realignment: Energy and capital markets are rapidly pricing out the immediate war premium after weeks of supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz. The sudden multi-percentage drop in crude highlights a volatile shift from stagflation fears back toward pro-growth assets.Bond market pressure limits central bank independence: Despite the single-session relief rally in bonds, long-dated yields remain near multi-decade highs, with the U.S. 30-year yield touching 5.20%. This persistent structural inflation pressure has forced President Trump to cool his aggressive public demands for immediate interest rate cuts from the Fed.AI hardware and startup funding dominance: Nvidia's stellar $81.6B print, paired with Anthropic projecting a 130% revenue surge to $10.9B for its first profitable quarter, demonstrates that the AI infrastructure supercycle shows no signs of structural deceleration. OpenAI is also reported to be preparing a confidential draft prospectus for an upcoming IPO.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Wall Street snapped a three-day losing streak, with the main U.S. indices rallying over 1% on peace deal optimism. Tech (+2%) and consumer discretionary sectors (+2.5%) led the charge, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 4.5%. Europe and the UK gained 1% and 1.5% respectively.Fixed Income: Sovereign bond yields tumbled sharply, marking their biggest single-day decline since late March. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 10 basis points, while UK yields posted widespread double-digit drops across the entire curve.FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened by 0.2%. The Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and Swedish Krona emerged as the top G10 gainers on renewed global risk appetite.Commodities: WTI and Brent crude oil plummeted by 5% as geopolitical premium evaporated on the final-stage peace talks between the US and Iran. Non-yielding spot gold edged slightly higher by 1.4% to $4,544/oz, bouncing off its recent 1.5-month lows as interest rate anxieties temporarily moderated but remained below its 20-day moving average at $4,622/oz.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: Semiconductor and tech supply chains are expected to gain a strong tailwind today, following Nvidia's blowout earnings and Samsung's union tentatively suspending its strike. Major Asia Pacific benchmark stock indices are trading in positive territory in today’s Asia opening session. Nikkei 225 (+3.4%), KOSPI (+6.6%), Hang Seng Index (+0.5%), China A50 (+0.7%), ASX 200 (+1.7%), and STI (+0.3%) at this time of writing.Currencies & interventions: Bank Indonesia's unexpected 0.5% policy interest rate hike successfully lifted the Rupiah, combating multi-month capital outflows. The Japanese yen stabilized near 159 per USD as Tokyo continued to threaten immediate intervention ahead of the 160 threshold. The Aussie fell 0.5% against the USD, almost reversing all of yesterday’s gains, reinforced by weak labour data as the unemployment rate for April jumped to 4.5% from 4.3% in March.Top 4 events to watch today Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Prelim (May) - 4.00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXUK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Prelim (May) - 4.30 pm SGT Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - 4.30 pm SGT Impact: USD, US stock indices, US TreasuriesUS S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Prelim (May) - 8.30 pm SGT Impact: USD, US stock indices, US Treasuries, GoldChart of the day - AUD/USD bearish reaction at 20-day MA Fig. 1: AUD/USD minor uptrend as of 21 May 2026 (Source: TradingView) The price action of AUD/USD exhibited a bearish reaction after a retest of the 20-day moving average. The Aussie fell by -0.4% intraday in today’s Asia session, almost reversing all of the gains seen on Wednesday, 20 May 2026.Technically speaking, the AUD/USD remains entrenched in a minor downtrend phase since its failure to break above 0.7265 (the swing highs of 4 May 2022 and 3 June 2022) on three recent occasions (6 May, 13 May, and 14 May) (see Fig. 1).Watch the 0.7180 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the near-term bearish bias. A break below 0.7085 (Tuesday, 19 May 2026 low) exposes the next intermediate supports at 0.7055 and 0.7030 in the first step.However, a clearance and an hourly close above 0.7180 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 0.7233 and 0.7265. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsAfter the US-China Summit, Markets are quickly moving towards the newer themes and these are not light ones, with the new Fed Chair repricing and confusion in the Middle EastA classic US Dollar rally has gripped all assets, from the riskiest in Crypto all the way to Bonds and Metals, with traders pricing austere Fed balance sheet policy. Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.Now that the US-China summit has wrapped up, financial markets are quickly moving on.Institutions are now focusing on bigger macroeconomic issues, especially the major changes expected with new Federal Reserve leadership and the ongoing stalemate in the Middle East. The President has set a new deadline, but progress remains slow.The geopolitical situation is still at a standstill. Although another violent conflict is not expected by most in the market, a clear diplomatic solution is also out of reach.Markets remain uncertain, with Polymarket showing only a 35% chance of a peace deal by the end of June. This ongoing uncertainty keeps risk levels high in global energy supply chains, even though the threat of war is no longer making headlines – Oil has persistently held above $100 in the past two weeks. Oil 4H Chart. May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The main force behind this week’s market moves is the Federal Reserve. After being confirmed by the Senate last Thursday, Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as the new Fed Chair this Friday and traders are already trying to price what's next. Markets are already adjusting for what could be a major shift in US monetary policy. Investors expect big changes to how the Fed gives guidance, measures inflation, and manages its balance sheet. With so much uncertainty, the only clear expectation is a more hawkish and restrictive central bank. This shift toward a more hawkish Fed has sparked a strong US Dollar rally, putting pressure on the wider financial markets. As traders adjust to the idea of tighter Fed policies and less global liquidity, demand for the dollar keeps rising.The strong dollar is drawing capital away from almost every other asset class. Riskier assets, like cryptocurrencies, are falling sharply as speculation leaves the market.At the same time, bonds are selling off quickly, causing yields to rise as markets expect less support from the central bank. Even precious metals are losing their safe-haven appeal as yields climb.Looking ahead to the end of the week, everyone is watching Friday’s swearing-in of Kevin Warsh to see if his first comments as Fed Chair will confirm the market’s concerns about a more hawkish approach.Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:NVIDIA (NVDA) Technical: Potential mean reversion decline below 236.54 as earnings loomAsia open: Surging 30-year bond yield flirts with 5.20% as market eyes Nvidia and Bank of England dilemmaMetals suffer from their upside fake-out – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) OutlookNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance in the past 10 days – May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Stock Indices have mostly struggled in the past week, particularly in Japan – But North American benchmarks have remained mostly stable.Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is actually back much higher compared to its beginning of May base.After a long consolidation around and below 98.00, bulls have retaken control with the hawkish repricing from the Warsh Trade and overall hot inflation data.To explore levels for action, check out our latest DXY in-depth article (along with a few FX Pairs).US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, May 20, 2026 - Source: TradingView The Dollar is now up against all major currencies, after a signficiant shift in demand since the confimation of Kevin Warsh at the head of the Federal Reserve.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, May 20, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Canadian Dollar also caught up against the majority of its FX peers, with the US Dollar being the only exception.The Loonie had lost quite some throughout the last month and largely diverged from the evolution in WTI Crude Prices – The catch up trade came from the CAD! USD/CAD 4H Chart, May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD continues to rebound within its longer-run 1.3550 and 1.3950 range, now coming close to break above the middle of it.The extreme of the range is at 1.3950, so that leaves some space for continued upside. Still, keep a close eye on the resistance levels before this and the general direction of the US DollarLevels to place on your USD/CAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.38 mini-Resistance +/- 150 pips1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance (range highs)1.3950 Range high resistanceSupport Levels:1.3750 Momentum Pivot1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support now Pivot (4H 50-period MA)1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)1.35 Key Psychological SupportEnd-January Lows 1.34820US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Some important data is expected to release in the coming week, including Consumer Sentiment (US) and Retail Sales (for Canada) on Friday, The most important however will be Kevin Warsh's swearing-in, with remarks expected on Friday (10:00)And don't forget the US PMIs tomorrow morning!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways NVIDIA remains the critical bellwether for the global AI capex cycle, with earnings expected to determine whether hyperscaler demand continues to accelerate or begins to plateau after a strong multi-month rally.Market expectations are extremely elevated, with options pricing implying a ~6–7% post-earnings move (~$350B market-cap swing), making guidance on data centre revenue, Blackwell execution, and hyperscaler capex the key catalysts.Technically, NVIDIA shows early signs of relative strength deterioration despite its medium-term uptrend, with bearish divergence and Fibonacci exhaustion near 234.90 suggesting risk of a multi-week mean reversion toward 212–195 support zones. Ahead of today’s NVIDIA Q1 earnings release after the US session close, NVDA remains the single most important stock in global equities because it effectively determines whether the Artificial Intelligence (AI) capex supercycle is still accelerating.So far, NVIDIA is ranked among the top 2 in terms of share price performance among the “Magnificent 7” cohort of mega-cap US stocks, together with Alphabet, the parent company of Google.Since the US-Iran pre-war base date of 27 February 2026 to Tuesday, 19 May 2026, NVDA recorded a gain of 24%. Also, since the global stock market recovery from 30 March 2025 to 19 May 2026, NVDA surged by 34%, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 (+26%), and the S&P 500 (+16%) (see Fig. 1 & 2). Fig. 1: NVDA, SOX, Magnificent 7 & US stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 19 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Fig. 2: NVDA, SOX, Magnificent 7 & US stock indices performances from 30 Mar 2026 to 19 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Markets are not looking for “good” results. They are looking for evidence that AI infrastructure demand is still compounding fast enough to justify Nvidia’s valuation and the broader AI/semiconductor stocks rally.According to a news report from Reuters, the options market is pricing a roughly 6–7% post-earnings move, equivalent to an estimated $350 billion swing in the market value of NVDA.Here are the key fundamentals that traders are focusing on.Data centre revenue (the core earnings driver) Consensus for Q1 revenue is set at $78 to $79 billion, with data centre expected revenue coming in at $73 billion.This segment represents the all-important AI buildout, such as hyperscaler spending from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet, sovereign AI infrastructure as well as enterprise AI adoption.Blackwell ramp execution (the key narrative) NVIDIA’s current state-of-the-art GPU chip is designed to power large-scale AI, machine learning, and high-performance computing workloads.Focus will be on Blackwell shipment sales, production bottlenecks, customer deployment timelines, and Rubin (next-generation AI and data centre supercomputing platform) roadmap commentary.Guidance (the real catalyst) Three key areas to focus on: Q2 revenue guidance, full-year AI demand commentary, and hyperscaler CAPEX visibility.Markets will be looking for narratives, whether AI spending is still accelerating into 2H, and the state of the customer deployments pipeline (whether it is slowing down)Let’s now turn to the technical analysis of NVDA to assess its medium-term outlook over the next one to three weeks.Relative strength is deteriorating; watch out for a mean reversion decline within NVDA medium-term uptrend Fig. 3: NVIDIA (NVDA) medium-term trend as of 19 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Mean reversion corrective decline within medium-term uptrend phase below 234.90/236.54 key medium-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 3).Supports: 212.17/208.00 (downside trigger), 195.95 (also the 50-day MA), 179.95 (also the 200-day MA)Next resistances: 234.10, 259.70/260.20 (Fibonacci extensions)Key elements to support the multi-week mean reversion decline on NVDA The daily volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of NVDA against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund has flashed out a bearish divergence condition and moved below its 50-day moving average.The recent intraday all-time high of 236.54 printed on 14 May 2026 has coincided closely with the 0.764 Fibonacci extension level of 234.90, projected from the 30 March 2026 low, suggesting that the prior 6-week uptrend has reached a potential terminal level at 234.90, increasing the risk of a mean reversion corrective decline (Elliot Wave Theory & Fibonacci analysis). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets were aggressively pricing in a violent restart of hostilities between the United States and Iran following this morning's firm rejection of the latest Iranian diplomatic proposal. However, the geopolitical landscape just experienced a significant shift: President Trump has officially called off the planned offensives, signalling a pivot toward a more strategic, diplomatic approach.According to the president’s own Truth Social post, Trump was scheduled to meet with his war cabinet tomorrow to discuss the next immediate military strike. Instead, he announced that he is halting the planned attack on Iran at the direct request of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the President of the UAE. The regional leaders urged the US to hold off on military action, citing that serious, high-level negotiations are currently taking place behind the scenes. Trump's Truth Social post – May 18, 2026 This sudden de-escalation is sparking a huge relief rebound across global financial markets. After a notably rough start to the trading week—heavily clouded by the latest Iran proposition rejection and the Warsh Trade/Federal Reserve repricing—investor sentiment is rapidly bouncing back. US stock benchmarks are aggressively catching a bid, reversing earlier intraday losses as the removal of immediate military tail risks allows buyers to confidently step back into the fold – On the other hand, Oil, which quickly rebounded above the $100 mark is now seeing some heavier selling flows. While structural macroeconomic concerns remain, the diplomatic news provides a sweet safety net that Market bulls desperately needed to regain their footing.Let’s dive into a few key charts to see how the latest news affected Markets. Discover: Stock Markets are scared of renewed Oil pressure – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsAsia open: Trump-Xi summit disappoints, inflation fears fuel bond yield surgeThe Kevin Warsh repricing and Inflation points – Markets Weekly OutlookStock Markets bounce significantly S&P 500 (CFD) 15M Chart – May 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView (15:45) The S&P 500 erased most of its daily losses, retesting the 7,400 level only a few hours after breaking it to the downside.Energy Markets WTI (US) Oil prices exploded to new highs (close to $110, CFD prices) this morning but are now back below the 15M 50-period MA on strong selling momentum WTI (US) Oil CFD 15M Chart, May 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels15M 50-period MA 106.47$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance (rejecting)$110 mini-resistance2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)Support Levels$105 15M 200-period MA$98 to $100 PivotMomentum Support $93 - $95$90 Psychological level and past session's lows$87 to $90 mini-Support$82 Friday 17 lows2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80Metals Markets Metal Futures Intraday Charts, May 18, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Metals are somewhat bouncing higher again from the better Market narratives, with Copper and Silver leading the way to the upside.The reaction is still quite contained for now.US Dollar Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart, May 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is seeing heavy rejection, failing to hold above its 50-hour MA and instantly tumbling back below 99.00. Safe Trades and keep track of the latest headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

WTI Oil kept rising throughout the week with a continuous status quo in the Middle East.While the Trump-Xi meeting is ongoing, the US-Iran situation is frozen, hence traders are preparing for the next phase of the tradeExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil prices have been climbing this week as tensions in the Middle East show no signs of change. Even though President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are meeting, the US-Iran situation remains unresolved and as a result, traders are getting impatient for the next phase in the Energy Commodity Market. Peace Deal odds for June 30 – Source: Polymarket. May 15, 2026. There are some positive signs for global stability as President Trump and President Xi Jinping seem to somewhat agree on common objective for a peace process. President Trump says both the US and China believe Iran should not have a nuclear weapon, and that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is very important for China. Beijing agrees, saying there is no real reason for the conflict to continue. These talks could have a big impact on Asian countries that rely on Gulf energy, and the results of this summit could change global markets in a major way.Even with some hope from diplomacy, today’s market tells a different story. The US Dollar is rising quickly, which is pushing down commodity prices and lowering global risk assets. Crude Oil is also feeling this pressure and has dropped during the early Friday morning – But traders want to look forward and will have to consider what the status quo means for the Commodity.Since supply problems in the Strait of Hormuz are not fixed and global inventories are low, oil prices are for now remaining underpinned ahead of the weekend.Now, let's take a closer look at the technical analysis for WTI Crude to see if prices can remain above $100 for long. Read More:Asia open: Oil surges past $106, USD rose as Fed signals steady ratesStock Markets update – Dow Jones at 50,000 & S&P 500 trades above 7,500 – Intraday LevelsTrump-Xi summit 2026: Key expectations and what markets are watchingUS Oil Intraday Timeframe AnalysisWTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – May 15, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI led a strong move to the upside to test its $106 resistance (CFD) to retest early May levels.The US Session brought with it some calm but the immediate action remains quite mixed, with the RSI stable in the bullish region – To learn more, we will have to look closerWTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance$110 mini-resistance2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)Support Levels$98 to $100 PivotMomentum Support $93 - $95 $90 Psychological level and past session's lows$87 to $90 mini-Support$82 Friday 17 lows2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $801H Chart and action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – May 15, 2026. Source: TradingView Crude is still following a short-term upward trendline within a bull channel, giving the upper hand to the bulls for immediate action.Continuation traders will want to see a continued rebound from here to extend back towards the top of the channel at 107.60 (CFD Prices)Bears will want to see a break below the previous bear channel (103.40) with confirmation on a 1H candle close below the 50-Hour MA (102.66)Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Brent crude oil surged above $106/bbl as the prolonged Iran conflict and continued Strait of Hormuz disruption reinforced fears of persistent global energy supply shortages and inflation pressures.The Federal Reserve maintained its “higher for longer” stance after stronger inflation data and elevated energy prices reduced expectations for rate cuts, while Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed chair, further shaping future policy expectations.The Trump-Xi summit kept markets cautious after Xi Jinping warned over Taiwan tensions, contributing to weakness across major Asia-Pacific equity indices despite continued resilience in US equities.Chart of the day: Nikkei 225 is now facing potential near-term weakness below 63,270 key short-term resistance, reinforced by a jump in oil prices.Top macro headlines Trump-Xi Summit culminates with Taiwan warning: U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping wrap up a two-day state visit featuring business deals, but Xi issued a stark warning that mishandling the Taiwan issue could push U.S.-China relations to "a very dangerous place."Oil hovers above $106 on Iran war: Brent crude oil prices surged 5% over the week, hovering above $106 a barrel as the prolonged Iran conflict keeps the key Strait of Hormuz largely shut.Fed holds steady amid inflation shock, Warsh confirmed: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams stated there is no need right now to weigh any change in interest rate policy amid the Middle East war uncertainty. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate approved Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve.Gold set for weekly decline: Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,619.49 per ounce, down 1.9% for the week, pressured by higher energy prices fueling fears of inflation and prolonged higher interest rates.US retail sales and jobless claims increase: U.S. retail sales increased by 0.5% m/m in April, in line with expectations, while initial jobless claims also increased moderately last week, pointing to a stable but inflation-pressured economy.Key macro themes Inflation and "higher for longer" rates: Higher energy prices from the Middle East war are driving up inflation, reinforcing fears that interest rates will remain higher for longer, as confirmed by NY Fed President John Williams.Geopolitical tensions drive commodities: The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil prices (Brent) elevated above $106, while the US dollar's strength makes greenback-priced bullion more expensive, leading to a weekly decline in gold.Sino-US relations in focus: The Trump-Xi summit brings both economic deals and geopolitical warnings, specifically concerning Taiwan, making the Asia Pacific region highly sensitive to diplomatic outcomes.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Despite global energy flows disrupting markets, the benchmark S&P 500 index extended its rally in 2026 towards the next psychological level of 7,500 and a record high.Fixed Income: The prospect of prolonged higher interest rates, fueled by oil-driven inflation and affirmed by Fed officials, continues to exert pressure on bond markets.FX: The US Dollar Index gained over 1% this week, supported by higher inflationary data in the US, in turn, significantly reducing Fed rate cut bets in 2026 and 2027 according to the CME FedWatch tool.Commodities: Brent crude oil is hovering above $106 a barrel (up 5% this week). Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,619.49 per ounce, while spot silver fell 2.8% to $81.10.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: Markets are closely watching the conclusion of the Trump-Xi talks in Beijing, especially after Xi's stark warning regarding Taiwan, which could impact regional stability and equities. A stronger USD is now triggering weakness in regional benchmark stock indices at the open. NIkkei 225 (-0.8%), KOSPI (-2%), Hang Seng Index (-0.8%), China A50 (-0.3%), ASX 200 (-0.3%), and STI (-0.1%) at this time of writing.Currencies: The yuan is an outlier among its Asia Pacific peers; USD/CNH (offshore yuan) is trading almost unchanged at around 6.79, while AUD and NZD both decline by 0.4% against the USD, in line with lacklustre Asia Pacific equities.Economic Outlook: The improving regional manufacturing recovery in Taiwan and South Korea faces headwinds from expensive energy imports and a fading global risk appetite if the ceasefire is broken.Top 2 events to watch today Conclusion of the Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Impact: USD/CNH, global equities.US Industrial Production (Apr) - 9.15 pm SGT (consensus: 0.3% m/m, Mar: -0.5% m.m) Impact: USD, US stock indicesChart of the day - Nikkei 225 bearish breakdown below ascending channel support Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 15 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) is now staging an intraday decline of -1.7% at the opening on Friday, 15 May, Asian session.Its price action is now breaking below a month-long ascending channel support at 61,945 from the 30 March 2026 low, which increases the odds of a minor corrective decline sequence to retrace towards its 20-day moving average.Watch the 63,270 key short-term pivotal resistance for the next intermediate support to come in at 61,180/60,795 (also the 20-day moving average). A break below 60,795 may trigger a further intraday drop towards 59,970 next.On the flipside, a clearance with an hourly close above 63,270 invalidates the bearish scenario to revive the bullish impulsive up move sequence towards the next intermediate resistances (new all-time highs) at 64,145, and 65,010/040 (Fibonacci extension cluster). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The 2026 Trump-Xi summit is viewed as a critical geopolitical event for financial markets, with investors primarily seeking signs of stabilisation in US-China trade relations, technology restrictions, and broader geopolitical tensions.Markets are focused on potential progress in semiconductor export controls, AI technology access, Taiwan-related communication channels, and currency stability, as even modest diplomatic improvements could support risk assets and Asian equities.The most likely market outcome remains a limited “managed competition” framework rather than a comprehensive trade deal, which could trigger only a temporary relief rally before markets refocus on inflation, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policy risks. Today’s two-day meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing is shaping up to be one of the most consequential geopolitical events for global markets in 2026The summit comes at a time of heightened tensions driven by trade frictions, technology restrictions, Taiwan-related security concerns, and the inflation shock stemming from the Iran conflict.Key expectations from the Trump–Xi summitTemporary trade stabilisation rather than a full deal Markets are likely expecting a de-escalation framework instead of a comprehensive trade agreement. Possible outcomes include:Partial tariff rollbacks or suspension of new tariffs.Agreements to resume high-level economic dialogue.China pledges increased purchases of US agricultural, energy, or industrial goods.Reduced rhetoric on export controls and sanctions.A broad structural trade deal remains unlikely due to strategic rivalry between the two powers.Supply chain and technology negotiations Technology remains the core battleground. Investors will focus on:Potential easing or delay of US semiconductor export restrictions (Watch out for potential easing of controls on Nvidia's H200 AI chips to China).Negotiations surrounding AI chips, rare earths, EV batteries, and critical minerals.Whether China receives any concessions on access to advanced technology.Any softening stance could trigger strong rallies in Asian tech equities and semiconductor-linked stocks.Taiwan and security communication channels A key objective may simply be reducing geopolitical tail risks:Re-establishment of military communication hotlines.Commitments to avoid escalation around the Taiwan Strait.Diplomatic language aimed at reducing accidental military confrontation.Even symbolic cooperation would likely be viewed positively by risk assets.Currency and financial market stability Given recent USD volatility and concerns over inflation:China may resist sharp yuan depreciation (the offshore CNH has continued to strengthen in the past week, approaching a 3-year high of 6.7740 per USD).The US may seek commitments against competitive devaluation.Both sides could emphasize financial stability to calm bond and FX markets.This would matter significantly for Asian FX, emerging markets, and global risk sentiment.Possible market reactions Positive scenario (most market-friendly):Limited trade truce with improved diplomatic tone may trigger a rally in equities, Asian exporters, semiconductors, and cyclical assets.Neutral scenario (most likely):Constructive dialogue, but few concrete deliverables may lead to a short-term relief rally followed by renewed focus on inflation and rates.Negative scenario (least likely):Breakdown in talks or aggressive rhetoric on tariffs/Taiwan sees a risk-off move into USD, gold, Treasuries, and defensive sectors. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Nasdaq 100 extended its medium-term bullish trend to a fresh record high of 29,390, supported largely by explosive gains in semiconductor and AI-related stocks such as Intel, Advanced Micro Devices, and SanDisk.The strong correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and the iShares Semiconductor ETF suggests that emerging exhaustion signals in semiconductor stocks could trigger a near-term corrective pullback in the broader tech-heavy index.Bearish technical indicators, including bearish RSI divergence, overstretched price action above the 20-day moving average, and Bollinger Band exhaustion conditions, point to rising risks of a short-term mean reversion decline below the 29,505/615 resistance zone. This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Nasdaq 100 bulls still in control above 28,280 key support amid US-Iran tensions”, published on 8 May 2026.The price actions of the US Nasdaq CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) have surged as expected; it rallied by 3.2% from Friday, 8 May 2026 intraday low of 28,480 to hit a fresh all-time intraday high of 29,390 on Monday, 11 May 2026 in the US session.Its current medium-term uptrend phase has been in place since the 30 March 2026 low, and a significant contribution of the gains has been from US semiconductor and AI-hardware related stocks, such as SanDisk (+151%), Intel (+150%), and Advanced Micro Devices (+105%) in the past three months.US semiconductors are showing signs of medium-term bullish exhaustion Fig. 1: Correlation of iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) with Nasdaq 100 as of 12 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Fig. 2: iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) medium-term trend as of 12 May 2025 (Source: TradingView) The price movement of the Nasdaq 100 and the iShares Philadelphia (PHLX) Semiconductor Sector exchange-traded fund (SOXX) has moved in almost perfect direct lockstep (see Fig. 1).The 20-day rolling coefficient between the Nasdaq 100 and SOXX stands at 0.95, which indicates that future movements of US semiconductor stocks, using SOXX as a bellwether is likely to have a significant influence and impact on the Nasdaq 100.The prior 6-week consecutive rally of the SOXX has reached an overstretched volatility condition, as seen in the daily Bollinger Bands indicator.The daily price action of SOXX has a daily close above the upper Bollinger Band (two standard deviations away from the 20-day moving average) on Monday, 11 May 2026, coupled with a bearish divergence condition seen on the daily RSI momentum indicator at its overbought zone (see Fig. 2).These observations suggest the bullish impulsive up move of SOXX since the 30 March 2026 low has reached a potential bullish exhaustion condition, where the next movement may be a multi-day corrective decline sequence, in turn, triggering a negative feedback loop into the Nasdaq 100.Let’s now uncover the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of the Nasdaq 100 from a technical analysis perspective.Nasdaq 100 – At risk of minor mean reversion decline below 29,505/615 Fig. 3: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend as of 13 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Minor corrective decline below 29,505/615 key short-term pivotal resistance within medium-term uptrend (see Fig. 3).Supports: 28,660, 28,460/280, and 27,850 (close to the 20-day moving average)Next resistances: 29,893/953 and 30,410/417 (Fibonacci extension clusters)Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on the Nasdaq 100 The current all-time intraday high of 29,390 printed on Monday, 11 May 2026, has moved significantly away from its 20-day moving average by almost 6%.The hourly RSI momentum indicator flashed a bearish divergence condition on Monday, 11 May 2026.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bearish breakdown below its key ascending support on Tuesday, 12 May 2026. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After yesterday's sharp rally in alternative precious metals, with Copper, Platinum, and Silver all surging as Chinese inflation reached a 45-month high, the strong upward momentum has now eased.However, Precious Commodities traders were caught off guard by this morning's higher-than-expected US inflation report. As the US Dollar surged in response to the hawkish CPI data, traditional risk assets and alternative metals pulled back. Still, the metals complex is holding strong relative to the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the broader cryptocurrency market, which are seeing much sharper declines today. Metals performance since the beginning of May 2026 – Source: TradingView. May 12, 2026 Broad financial markets are now essentially frozen in a state of suspended animation following the CPI release – Participants eyes are firmly turning toward the monumental Trump-Xi diplomatic summit scheduled over the next three days. This high-stakes meeting between the world's two largest economic superpowers is virtually guaranteed to rock global investor appetite and set the directional tone for the remainder of the quarter – And metals won't be isolated from such dynamics.Despite the current economic and geopolitical uncertainty, Gold has stayed relatively quiet: The metal is consolidating within its wide $4,500 to $4,900 range. By holding steady and absorbing market volatility, Gold is building a solid technical foundation for a possible longer-term rally.Importantly, Gold has stayed resilient even with recent hawkish data and the fast-paced rise in Crude oil prices; Ongoing relative strength which suggests that the fundamental outlook for this safe-haven asset may be changing in the near future.Traders should expect massive, headline-driven volatility in the very near term all across Markets and the Yellow Metals – The ultimate question is which direction this historic consolidation will finally break. Let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) to look where the action could head for the rest of the week, if not weeks. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) is in breakout mode, pushing above $85 – In-depth Silver technical analysisThe US Dollar rallies back after CPI, is the correction is over ? – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewChart alert: WTI crude is poised for a potential volatility bullish breakout above $102.54/bblGold (XAU/USD) Multi Timeframe Technical AnalysisWeekly Chart Gold Weekly Chart, May 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold has been forming the basis for a decent support between $4,500 and $4,900, helping the previously bearish momentum to turn neutral.Having failed to push for further downside, bulls are slowly regaining the advantage with the Weekly RSI slowly turning bullish since the beginning of the month.This week's candle, still forming, is for now looking like a Bullish Hammer.4H Chart and Technical Levels Gold 4H Chart, May 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView After a bearish reaction to the morning US Inflation numbers, some mean reversion buying is pushing back above the previous candle, forming an bullish engulfing pattern.Buyers will want to pursue this bullish momentum to push above the $4,780 weekly highs.Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:Resistance Levels:Intraday highs $4,780$4,850 to $4,900 Key Resistance (Range highs)$5,100 Pivotal ResistanceGold ATH record $5,602Support Levels:Daily Momentum Pivot $4,650 - $4,700December 2025 Support $4,500 to $4,550 (Range lows)Major Support $4,350 to $4,400War lows $4,1011H Chart Gold 1H Chart, May 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Yellow Metal is extending higher towards the end of the session, back above the $4,700 level and the 50-Hour MA.Bulls will need to expand their strength above the intraday level to extend further – Below $4,650, the 200-Hour MA, the action may get more bearish towards the bottom of the range.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver has officially entered what looks to be a real breakout. As we noted in our Friday analysis, the metals sector was overdue for a rally, and that move is now underway – Silver has attracted strong buying and has surged past the key $85 level to start the week, up 7% on the session. Daily Metal Performance (14:56). May 11, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz The macroeconomic environment is changing: In recent weeks (if not months now!), geopolitical headlines have stopped driving daily moves in most risk assets, and the precious commodities were not isolated. Metals were hit hard at first by conflict and rate-hike fears, but while that link has not disappeared, it is fading. Energy is now the only asset class still reacting to news coming from the Middle East, mostly because of supply issues in Hormuz and the lack of a ceasefire agreement. One of the most interesting parts of this breakout is the fact that Silver is moving higher without help from gold, which usually sets the direction for the alternative asset class: Normally, silver follows Gold’s moves, but this time, the strong bounce suggests there is real demand and strong buying interest focused on alternative metals instead.Traders could also be responding to China’s higher inflation report from yesterday, which suggests its inflation, a short-cut for economic activity after deflationary trends, is starting to recover. Silver and Copper are not just precious metals—they are mainly industrial metals. When China, the world’s largest industrial producer, shows stronger economic activity, it usually means demand for these metals is rising. Metals performance since April 2026 – Source: TradingView. May 11, 2026 We will dive into a Silver two-timeframe intraday analysis to prepare for the heavy action that's unfolding in front of our eyes – Is this a breakout ? Let's get right into it. Read More:Copper near record highs. Market fears supply constraints and bets on strong demandMarkets Weekly Outlook - Is the 'Risk-On' Rally sustainable with rates and energy elevated?Tech does not wait on CPI and Geopolitics – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 CPI LevelsSilver (XAG/USD) Intraday timeframe Technical Analysis4H Chart and Technical Levels Silver 4H Chart, May 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView After forming a bullish weekly divergence, the action is now turning much more bullish and this translated into a break of the prior $83 to $84.50 resistance, now acting as key momentum pivot.Evolving into a steep bull channel, the move should trigger high volatility for coming days.Without many resistance levels until there, bulls should remain in control until $90, level to be closely monitored.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:March range Resistance $90 to $92March High Resistance $95 to $97Key psychological resistance $100 to $104All-Time Highs $121Support Levels:Major Resistance now Pivot $83 to $84.50 Pivot highs $80 - $81.50Pivot lows $74.50 - $75$61.10 War Lows1H Chart Silver 1H Chart, May 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking at the 1H Candle points to clearer action ahead, with the morning extension now pointing to a slowing in the buying due to the overbought RSI.The fact that the action did not pullback however translates in the fact that buyers are not giving up their freshly gained advantage.Check out reactions to the channel top however (~$86.50).For late bulls, watch out for overbought conditions – to do so, either wait for a continued explosion (buy stop above $87) or pullback to $81.50 - $82.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks quickly resumed their road to new highs after yesterday's temporary breakNasdaq and S&P 500 maintain their paths to price discovery, but the Dow continues to reflect heavier doubtsExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock indexes are bouncing back to new record highs in this morning session, quickly recovering from yesterday’s brief, fear-driven momentum break.The pullback occurred as traders reduced risk following reports of sporadic military clashes in southern Iran, while the market awaited Tehran’s response to a US peace deal.Today, though, Wall Street is ignoring the geopolitical headlines.The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are still moving higher, driven mostly by the technology sector.Most of the biggest tech companies are dancing higher, with the exception of Microsoft; semiconductor stocks are especially strong. The AI-trade just continues to generate traction and is pushing the Nasdaq up by another 1.50% today. Daily Market Performance (11:13). May 8, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is showing more hesitation from Investors. Staying flat most of the morning, the Index couldn't withstand its few rebound attempts with most of the money is still going into faster-growing AI stocks.Markets did receive further economic clues: today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report was stronger than expected, which the market welcomed as a sign of US economic resilience despite recent Middle East tensions.However, some analysts are worried about the gap between the steady unemployment rate and the strong job numbers – Dangerous signs when many are still looking to see the impact of the change in the Bureau of Labor Statistics that happened at the end of 2025.At the same time, the University of Michigan’s early consumer sentiment index stayed weak and continued to fall – Yet, this bleak consumer data is doing absolutely nothing to prevent equities from printing fresh all-time highs.A key reminder that Stock Markets and the economy are two very different things University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and S&P 500 – Source: Koyfin, X To get ready for a potentially volatile weekend, dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Mixed feelings after the April Non-Farm Payrolls beat and Consumer Sentiment miss – Market CheckChart alert: Nasdaq 100 bulls still in control above 28,280 key support amid US-Iran tensionsChart alert: GBP/USD potential bullish reversal above 20-day moving averageCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:32) – Source: TradingView – May 8, 2026 The split is quite evident when looking at the left side of the Market heatmap, representing the now huge Tech sectors and the right (with the more traditional sectors) bleeding.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is still looking for direction in its ongoing consolidation period.Remaining closer to its recent highs despite a higher double top, odds for a breakout could increase if the action remains between 49,500 and 50,000.Breaking 49,500 however may see bearish acceleration, hence the risk is quite binary for the Index.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,878 morning highs49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsApril 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is onto a rocketship, completely bullying through previous record highs and currently pushing beyond 29,000.Finding tops in such price action is a daunting, costly task, but some small profit taking may occur around 29,250 – For now, bulls remain firmly in control.Don't forget to check out our in-depth analysis of the index.Except for any fundamental change, nothing can stop this train!Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels29,250 potential resistance Next level 29,750Support Levels28,500 short-term pivot (ST bearish below)28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportMomentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is now retesting its 7,400 record with the ongoing push from Tech stocks helping the index.Some signs of exhaustions could be appearing however with a diverging RSI.For now, this indicates higher chances of a slowdown in the rally rather than a full-on correction – Next week will be crucialS&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,390 - 7,400 Channel extension resistance (morning highs)7,415 161.% Fib Next stop 7,480Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 7,250 to 7,260Channel lows 7,230 (bearish below)7,100 psychological levelPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets have shown their fair acts of stoicism in recent days, not reacting the slightest to bad and relatively hawkish news.Yesterday, Iran reported US strikes on its capital and a few key energy-producing regions (including Bandar Abbas and Sirik – close to Hormuz), which came as a direct response to the Iranian firing on Gulf countries at the beginning of the week.Participants believe this will not escalate into something worse; The cold-truce remains, albeit being quite fragile.To enlighten the mood however, Non-Farm Payrolls offered a very decent beat (+115K vs 62K exp) in this morning's release, allowing Investor mood to remain calm ahead of the weekend action.The Unemployment Rate shows unchanged while the unrounded figures show a slight increase – But nothing too alarming. Morning US Data – MarketPulse Economic Calendar Canada is still showing an unstable employment picture with ups and downs virtually every month – The Canadian economy is cyclical and amid extreme doubts all around the globe, these labor numbers can only depict this truth.The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment also just released and came with a miss, with many consumers still signalling fears for higher inflation (logical with prices at the pump at the highest since 2022).You can access the full report right here.We will provide a quick outlook on the Market before diving into WTI (US) Oil Charts to get ready for what could be another volatile weekend. Discover:Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 bulls still in control above 28,280 key support amid US-Iran tensionsChart alert: GBP/USD potential bullish reversal above 20-day moving averageAsia open: Global markets jolted by US-Iran ceasefire violation, and traders brace for NFPA Mixed Market Picture Stock and Energy Product Futures – Courtesy of Finviz Except for the Tech-heavy index quickly restarting its path higher after a quick stopover, Energy and more traditional equities are scratching their heads in search for a concrete direction.True directional moves may only be found next week, with traders preparing for the Trump-Xi meeting in China (May 14).Metals trade higher, particularly Silver and Copper Metals weekly performance – May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver and Copper are leading a path higher in the entire asset class, with Gold starting to pick up some momentum.WTI (US) Oil forms a new range between $93 and $98 WTI Daily Chart – May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Oil is unable to form a concrete breakout, rejecting its up and down spikes at every attempt.As traders await for further news, Crude is stabilizing between $93 and $98, the two boundaries to keep in check for any clear break (watch for a 4H close above or below for higher breakout odds).Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news throughout the weekend.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Markets rattled by renewed US–Iran tensions: A reported ceasefire violation and exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz abruptly reversed prior peace optimism, reigniting geopolitical risk premiums and driving oil prices back above key $95–$100 levels.NFP now collides with stagflation fears: Traders are closely watching the US non-farm payrolls report as strong jobs data combined with surging oil prices could reinforce stagflation concerns and keep the Fed on hold throughout 2026.Risk assets turned cautious while safe havens gained: Global equities retreated from record highs, Asian markets reversed lower, and risk-sensitive currencies weakened, while the US dollar held firm on safe-haven demand and gold struggled below key short-term technical resistance near $4,775.Chart of the day: Nikkei 225 at risk of a minor corrective decline within the medium-term uptrend phase, below 62,795 key short-term resistance.Top macro headlines US-Iran ceasefire violated: Reuters reports a severe geopolitical escalation as Tehran accuses the US of violating the ceasefire, resulting in a direct exchange of fire involving US naval destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz. This shatters yesterday's peace optimism and triggered profit-taking in the US stock market on Thursday, 7 May.All eyes on US non-farm payrolls (NFP): Amidst the geopolitical turmoil, traders are bracing for today's critical US NFP report and unemployment rate data to determine the Federal Reserve's next policy move in a highly volatile environment. Based on the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, interest rate futures traders are still pricing in high odds that the Fed will maintain the Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% throughout 2026.Oil prices violently reversed higher: Following the reports of renewed military engagement and attacks on shipping infrastructure, Brent crude oil immediately reversed up and traded back above the $100/bbl threshold, holding at the 50-day moving average that is acting as a key intermediate support at around $99.80/bbl.Equities retreat from record highs: S&P 500 (-0.4%), Nasdaq 100 (-0.1%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%), and Russell 2000 (-0.6%). However, a minimal sell-off was observed in the US technology sector, with positive gains reported in mega-caps Nvidia (+1.8%) and Microsoft (+1.7%).Key macro themes Geopolitical whiplash: Markets have violently transitioned from a "Geopolitical Dividend" (pricing in peace and normalized trade) back to a maximum "Risk Premium" environment within 24 hours.The NFP vs. war tug-of-war: Today's US jobs report is usually the undisputed market driver, but it now competes with live war headlines. A hot NFP print combined with surging oil could create a nightmare scenario for bond markets by reigniting stagflation fears.Energy inflation resurrected: The potential breakdown of the ceasefire instantly places long-term global yield curves back under pressure. Central banks cannot easily ignore the inflationary impacts of $100+ crude oil, sustained by active conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical energy transit chokepoint. Interest rate futures markets indicate the ECB and BOJ will likely hike next month, and the BoE and RBNZ in July.Global market Impact (last 24 hours) Equities: S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 E-mini futures have managed to recover slightly in today’s early Asian session; +0.2% and +0.3% respectively at this time of writing, as US President Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire remains intact after both sides exchanged fire yesterday.Fixed income: US Treasury yields are experiencing extreme volatility. Initial flight-to-safety flows are pushing yields down, but the spectre of surging oil prices threatens to drag long-end yields back up ahead of the NFP release.FX: The US Dollar (DXY) spiked on safe-haven flows and held at 97.95 key near-term support that has been in place since 14 April 2026. Risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD retreated by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.Commodities: WTI and Brent crude rebounded, violently retaking the $95/bbl and $100/bbl handle, respectively. Spot Gold’s rally struggled to break above the $4,775/oz level (also close to the 50-day moving average, where it traded below it since 18 March 2026).Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: The anticipated Friday "catch-up rally" in Asian tech was completely derailed. The KOSPI and Nikkei 225 reversed early gains and turned heavily negative with intraday losses of around 1% each as profit-taking activities emerged ahead of the weekend.Currencies: The Australian Dollar (AUD) lost its RBA-driven premium due to waning intraday risk-on appetite, but it remains above its 20-day moving average, which is acting as a key intermediate support at around 0.7180/7160 against the USD.Economic outlook: Major Asian energy importers (such as Japan, South Korea, and India) may face a dual shock today: evaporating global risk appetite and increasing hawkish monetary policy guidance from developed central bank officials such as the ECB and BoE.Top 5 events to watch today Germany Balance of Trade – 2.00 pm SGT Impact: EUR crosses, DAXUS Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – 8.30 pm SGT: (consensus: 62K, Mar: 178K) Impact: All asset classesUS Unemployment Rate – 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 4.3%, Mar: 4.3%) Impact: All asset classesUS University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) – 10.00 pm SGT (consensus: 49.5, Apr: 49.8) Impact: US stock indices, USDUpdates US-Iran conflict – awaiting Iran’s response on US’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Impact: All asset classesChart of the day – Nikkei 225 at risk of minor corrective decline Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 8 May 2026 (Source: TradingView) After a steep rally from Monday, 4 May 2026, the Japan CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) may stage a potential minor mean reversion decline towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel in place since the 30 March 2026 low.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bearish breakdown below its ascending support after it flashed out a prior bearish divergence condition at its overbought region on Thursday, 7 May 2026 (see Fig. 1).Watch the 62,795 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential minor corrective decline towards the 61,180/60,795 immediate support, and breaking below it exposes 59,970 next (also close to the rising 20-day moving average).On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 62,795 invalidates the bearish scenario for a continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 64,145 and 65,010/65,040. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold rebounded on easing geopolitical tensions: Gold (XAU/USD) surged 3% as optimism over a potential US–Iran peace deal reduced stagflation fears and increased expectations that the Fed could eventually pivot toward rate cuts, weakening the US dollar.Technical and intermarket signals remain cautious: Despite the rally, gold remains one of the weaker-performing major assets since late February, while firm US 10-year real yields above 1.85% continue to limit upside momentum by raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.Near-term bearish bias still intact: Gold’s rebound stalled near the downward-sloping 20-day and 50-day moving averages and close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, while RSI momentum indicators flashed bearish divergence, keeping resistance at 4,775 in focus. Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a significant intraday rally of 3% on Wednesday, 6 May 2026, on the backdrop of easing US-Iran geopolitical tensions, as positive news flows suggest a potential imminent peace deal resolution to end the two-month-long conflict.An end to the US–Iran war would likely reduce stagflation risks as lower oil prices ease inflationary pressures, potentially giving the US Federal Reserve greater scope to consider resuming interest rate cuts.A shift in Fed guidance from a “wait-and-see” stance toward a more dovish tone could weaken the US dollar, which in turn may provide further support for gold prices.So far, considering the pre-war baseline of 27 February 2026 to Wednesday, 6 May 2026, spot Gold (LMBA) is still one of the underperformers among major cross assets with a loss of 9.9% (see Fig. 1). Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) with major cross assets performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 6 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Secondly, technical factors and intermarket analysis advocate that the trend of Gold (XAU/USD) has not transitioned into a medium-term uptrend phase despite yesterday’s 3% rally.Let’s unpack these key technical and intermarket charts now.The 10-year US Treasury real yield remains supported at 1.85% Fig. 2: Correlation of 10-year US Treasury real yield with Gold (XAU/USD) as of 7 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Gold (XAU/USD) has a significant indirect correlation with the longer-term US Treasury yields, as the precious yellow metal is a non-interest income-bearing asset.Hence, if the 10-year US Treasury real yield remains supported and stages an up move, gold in turn is likely to face downside pressure as opportunity costs rise for owning precious metals.Since the start of this week, 4 May 2026, the 10-year US Treasury real yield has traded sideways above its key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, and 200-day) while holding above a key intermediate support of 1.85%.Thus, a minor push-up on the 10-year US Treasury real yield to retest its near-term range resistance at 1.98% may translate to a minor slide in Gold (XAU/USD) (see Fig. 2).Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of Gold (XAU/USD)Gold (XAU/USD) – Bullish momentum has eased off after a retest on 20-day MA Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 7 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Bearish bias within a range configuration in place from 17 April 2026 to 19 April 2026. 4,775 key short-term pivotal resistance cannot be surpassed to maintain bearish bias (see Fig. 3).Supports: 4,645, 4580, and 4,524/4,486 (range support)Next resistance: 4,860/4,900 (range resistance – 15 April/17 April 2026 highs)Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on Gold (XAU/USD) The recent rebound from the 5 May 2026 low has reached the area of the downward-sloping 20-day and 50-day moving averages.The rebound has also almost retraced 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior drop from the 17 April 2026 high to the 5 May 2026 low at 4,740.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has exited the overbought region (above the 70 level) with a prior bearish divergence condition. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.