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Australia's retail sales miss forecast, Aussie slips

The Australian dollar is lower on Thursday. In the Europen session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6556, down 0.41% on the day. Australia's retail sales lower than expected at 0.2% Australia's retail sales posted a small gain of 0.2% in May, up from a flat reading in April but shy of the consensus of 0.4%. The gain was driven by a strong rebound in sales in clothing and footwear, while food sales declined. On an annual basis, retail sales rose 3.3%, down sharply from 3.8% in April and the weakest pace of growth in six months.RBA expected to trim next weekToday's weak data has bolstered expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower rates at next week's meeting. The money markets have priced in a cut at 97%, which would lower the cash rate to 3.6%. /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. vXeW6 - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_vXeW6(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-vXeW6'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_vXeW6(); Consumers have been holding back on spending and the Reserve Bank will be counting on a rate cut to boost Australia's weak economy. That strategy hasn't worked as well as hoped; the RBA has lowered rates twice since February but first-quarter growth was weak and consumers haven't been spending.Inflation is under control and CPI dropped to 2.1% in May, down from 2.4% and the lowest level since Oct. 2024. With inflation largely contained, the Reserve Bank can deliver a rate cut without too much concern about the upside risk to inflation.US nonfarm payrolls expected to drop to 110 thousandIt's an abbreviated week in the US due to the Fourth of July holiday on Friday. The US will release the June employment report on Thursday, with all eyes on nonfarm payrolls.Nonfarm payrolls eased slightly in May to 137 thousand from 147 thousand and the downward trend is expected to continue, with a consensus of 110 thousand for June. This would mark the weakest pace of job growth since 2020, with the exception of a meltdown in job growth in Oct. 2024. AUDUSD Technical AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6567 and is testing support at 0.6555. Below, there is support at 0.6540There is resistance at 0.6582 and 0.6594 close AUDUSD 4-Hour Chart, July 2, 2025 AUDUSD 4-Hour Chart, July 2, 2025 /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. y4xs1 - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_y4xs1(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-y4xs1'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_y4xs1(); Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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US Stocks point to muted reaction at the Open despite big ADP Jobs miss

This morning's ADP release was not enough to trigger large volatility in Markets. The data came in at -33K vs a consensus of 95K, a consequential miss that led to a subdued market reaction.US Equity futures had gone up in the overnight session with the S&P 500 just grazing new all-time highs (6,229 on its CFD) and markets are now correcting, with however a slow but steady grind.ADP Employment measures private employment by US Firms and concerns around 30 millions of Americans , which represents a bit less than 10% of the US Population – Its correlation to the Non-Farm Payrolls data is not significant, a reason why reactions to ADP releases are less accentuated than the more global US NFP.The miss is nonetheless quite large and it will be interesting to see in the upcoming months how Trump's policies influence the difference in Private and Public US Employment, if there are disparities and how much of a difference in the economy this potential disparity generates.The current picture in US Indices point to similar rebalancing flows from Tech to Consumer Defensive/Manufacturing with the Nasdaq again leading on the downside (-0.40%) and the Dow Jones on top of Indices (-0.10%) – Futures point towards a small gap down at the 9:30 opening Bell.The US Dollar is starting to build a low as a potential technical bottom is attained. close US Indices CFD performance, July 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView US Indices CFD performance, July 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. qW0QU - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_qW0QU(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-qW0QU'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_qW0QU(); Read More: Gold surges above $3,350 again — will momentum continue? Nasdaq vs Dow Jones Relative strength in the past 10 years close Dow Jones vs Nasdaq, July 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones vs Nasdaq, July 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView This chart takes a peak at a comparison from Nasdaq prices relative to the Dow Jones – Since its advent in 1971, the Tech-Focused index has quite largely overperformed the more defensive Industrial Dow.Prices in both indices are not calculated the same way, however the idea stays the same – The downtrend is slowing down, but still active, a bottom might be getting formed.The ratio is now only 2 to 1 in terms of pure pricing and it seems that markets might start to change their appetite from the Nasdaq to the Dow – It is still very early to say this but might be worth taking a look. Dow Jones and Nasdaq 4H Charts Dow Jones 4H close Dow Jones 4H Chart, July 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones 4H Chart, July 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Momentum is back to neutral after yesterday's overbought conditions stopped the bulls in their charge upwards.Look for immediate support around 44,315 to 44,330, a confluence with the 4H MA 50 and the upwards trendline that is leading current flows.For bears, look at either a failure to hold the trendline mentioned right before, or at a rejection of the local top at 44,702, which may not be reached if tomorrow's data comes in with a negative surprise. Nasdaq 4H Chart close Nasdaq 4H Chart, July 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq 4H Chart, July 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq chart looks more balanced, subject to bear strenght compared to the US 30 chart seen right before.Prices broke through the upwards trendline that lead to the new All-time high price discovery (22,751 on the CFD) and have started to form what resembles a Head and Shoulders pattern – To supplement that, both the MA 20 and 50 are acting as immediate resistance and are starting to slope downwards.RSI Momentum is also in the same direction but close to oversold, therefore it will be key to see how markets react to the upcoming Opening Bell.Levels to watch for the Nasdaq: Local ATH Top – 22,700 Region ResistancePivot Zone 22,450Previous ATH Support Zone 22,250 (confluence with 4H MA 200)Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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Dow leads US Indices on strong Manufacturing PMI beat

The Dow is outperforming all major U.S. indices, fueled by a stronger-than-expected U.S. Manufacturing PMI report in today's session. The data, released at 10:00 ET, came in at 52.9 versus the forecasted 52, signaling not just expansion, but some form of resilience in the sector.S&P Global’s Chief Business Economist commented:“June saw a welcome return to growth for U.S. manufacturing production after three months of decline, with higher workloads driven by rising orders from domestic and export customers. Reviving demand has also encouraged factories to hire additional staff at a rate not seen since September 2022.”This uptick in manufacturing momentum suggests that the feared economic damage from tariffs may have been overstated, though price pressures remain very real.The latest JOLTS report, which showed continued labor market strength, added to the bullish tone. As a result, market sentiment improved, with the Healthcare and Consumer Defensive sectors leading gains, while names like NVIDIA and Tesla continue to feel pressure from ongoing political scrutiny.As cyclical sectors outshine tech, the Dow Jones has taken the lead among U.S. indices, currently up 1% on the session. close US Indices CFD performance, July 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView US Indices CFD performance, July 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More: Gold surges above $3,350 again — will momentum continue? /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. uymEa - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_uymEa(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-uymEa'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_uymEa(); Dow Jones Daily Chart close Dow Jones Daily Chart, July 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones Daily Chart, July 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is the only major US index to not have surpassed its all-time highs, and current data and flows are supporting the advent of new ATH in the US 30.The Dow is on its 7th consecutive bullish candle, powering through the 44,000 level and heading towards 45,000 which may just happen as long as the mood keeps turning more positive.As a reminder, the All-time highs on the US 30 CFD is at 45,060, close to 1% away from current trading.The Daily MA 20 is just crossing above the 200 MA, another sign of strength for bulls that are taking control of equity markets again – RSI is in overbought territory however, but won't change much until buyers actually start slowing down. Dow Jones 1H Chart close Dow Jones 1H Chart, July 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones 1H Chart, July 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView The uptrend is intact particularly with strong momentum – RSI retracts only to the neutral zone before heading higher on impulsive bull moves, a sign of a stable trend, further supported by upward sloping Moving averages.1H Charts are currently showing overbought and signs of momentum somehow slowing, however as long as there is no clear correction in prices, the continuing the uptrend stays the most probable path.Some levels to look for in current trading for the index: Resistance Zones44,600 Daily Highs to surpass44,900 to 45,060 ATH Resistance Zone45,600 potential resistance from Fibonacci ExtensionsSupport Zones44,000 current pivot (+/- 100 points)43,500 psychological level43,000 Main Support Zone in confluence with 1H MA 200Safe Trades! /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. 1i4Fp - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_1i4Fp(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-1i4Fp'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_1i4Fp(); Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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Asia mid-session: Singapore’s STI hit a fresh all-time high, USD/JPY extends losses below key range support, Gold advances

US equities ended Q2 2025 on a strong note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rallying to new record highs on the final trading day of June. The S&P 500 erased all losses from Q1 and early April, previously triggered by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, and surged 5% in June, bringing its Q2 gain to 11%, marking its best quarterly performance since December 2023. /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. NKFpk - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_NKFpk(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-NKFpk'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_NKFpk(); Nikkei 225 underperformed while Singapore’s STI scaled towards a fresh all-time high Asia Pacific markets traded mixed during the first half of today’s session. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined by 1%, halting a five-day winning streak, weighed down by President Trump’s renewed tariff threats. He cited Japan’s refusal to accept US rice exports as justification for possible new tariffs ahead of the 9 July expiration of the 90-day tariff pause on US trading partners (excluding China).In contrast, Singapore’s Straits Times Index rose 0.8%, hitting a fresh intraday all-time high of 3,995, surpassing the previous record close of 3,972 on 24 March 2025. Australia’s ASX 200 edged up 0.1% to 8,549, just 1.5% shy of its all-time high of 8,639 set on 13 February 2025. The Hong Kong market was closed for a public holiday. USD/JPY bearish breakdown from medium-term ascending range The US dollar extended its decline at the start of July and Q3, led by yen strength. USD/JPY fell 0.4% intraday to 143.64, breaching key medium-term ascending range support at 143.90.The yen’s strength was supported by Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturers Index, which rose to 13 in Q2 2025 from 12, beating forecasts of 10, as Japan’s economy showed resilience amid rising US tariffs.Read more in our previous Chart of the day – Potential bearish breakdown of USD/JPY from 9-week range Gold’s advance is now fast approaching a key intermediate resistance Gold (XAU/USD) continued to climb, adding 0.8% intraday after yesterday’s 0.9% gain, buoyed by broad US dollar weakness. A sustained break above the US$3,346 intermediate resistance, also the 20-day moving average, would signal the end of the minor corrective phase from the 16 June 2025 high and potentially revive bullish momentum. Economic data releases close Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse) Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse) /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. PSoEE - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_PSoEE(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-PSoEE'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_PSoEE(); Chart of the day – Singapore 30 bullish trend remains intact close Fig 2: Singapore 30 CFD Index minor trend as of 1 July 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig 2: Singapore 30 CFD Index minor trend as of 1 July 2025 (Source: TradingView) Since its 23 June 2025 low of 396.58 (also a retest on the 50-day moving average), the price actions of the Singapore 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the MSCI Singapore futures) have evolved into a minor ascending channel and reintegrated back above the 20-day moving average on last Thursday, 26 June.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out a bullish momentum condition, holding above a parallel ascending trendline support at the 58 level. These observations suggest that the Singapore 30 CFD Index is likely undergoing a potential bullish impulsive up move sequence within its minor and medium-term uptrend phases (see Fig 2).Watch the 410.50 short-term pivotal support to maintain the current bullish tone for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 417.20 and 419.50/420.90 (also a Fibonacci extension).On the other hand, failure to hold at 410.50 negates the bullish tone for a slide towards 407.00 (also the 20-day moving average), and a break below it triggers a deeper minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support at 403.30 (also the 50-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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USDCAD slips after rally as renewed US-Canada talks resume

Talks between the US and Canada appear to have resumed in the latest episode of “TACO” Trump trade drama. During a Friday news conference, Trump announced he was stepping away from negotiations with Canada.In response, the Land of Maple Syrup dropped its plans to implement a Digital Services Tax—one that would have directly impacted many American service-exporting firms.The proposed tax now appears to have been more of a negotiation tactic from Canada aimed at its increasingly unpredictable neighbor.Markets initially reacted sharply to Trump’s announcement on Truth Social, sparking a 900-pip rally.However, the move quickly faded as participants recognized a familiar pattern—these announcements often act as leverage for the US to push for more favorable trade terms. Read More: Seasonal flows for the month of July /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. wh7iv - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_wh7iv(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-wh7iv'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_wh7iv(); Technical Analysis for the North-American Trading Pair USDCAD 4H Chart close USDCAD 4H Chart, June 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView USDCAD 4H Chart, June 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView USDCAD has largely given up its attempt of a bullish impulse – The 1.3760 highs after the Friday headline were not enough to bring back aggressive buying into the pair.Prices have formed lower highs since past Monday's highs with this morning's session descent having stopped at 1.3620, last Thursday's lows.Sellers will have to push below this level acting as immediate support , however may find some strength with the 4H MA 20 acting as immediate resistance – A break may hint at a retest of 1.3540 June 16th lows.A fail to break below hints at a consolidation range to review higher levels, with the immediate main level upwards being the 1.3740 Pivot zone turned Resistance.It is Victoria Day in Canada tomorrow, so Loonie traders may expect lower volumes that the usual in the pair. USDCAD 1H Chart close USDCAD 1H Chart, June 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView USDCAD 1H Chart, June 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView The latest move in the currency pair has formed an Hourly Descending Channel (HDC) which may be used as a guide for momentum identification.Any break below current levels will accelerate bearish strength to retest last week lows, with a further falloff finding potential support at 1.35 (Psycholigical Level + Upper bound of May Daily descending channel)Holding above last week lows points at the upper bound of the HDC around 1.3680 in the Pivot Zone seen in the 4H Chart.Watch for lower volumes in this week (except for Thursday with the NFP release) and for more headlines regarding US-Canada trade talks.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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USD/CHF Outlook: Swiss franc rallies to fresh 14-year highs versus dollar

USD/CHF is down ~0.63% in today’s session, currently trading around the ~0.79378 level.Crucially remaining under the key level of 0.8000, the Swiss franc remains on pace for its best three-monthly performance versus the dollar since 2008 amid the latest wave of dollar weakness. USD/CHF: Key takeaways from today’s session With the DXY falling to three-year lows today shortly after the New York open, dollar-franc has predictably followed suit, falling to levels last seen in 2011~Recent commentary from the Swiss National Bank, suggesting that both negative rates and currency interventions remain a possibility, might limit USD/CHF downside in the short term /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. 8VNw2 - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_8VNw2(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-8VNw2'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_8VNw2(); USD/CHF: Dollar downside remains largest driving force for USD/CHF traders Returning to regularly scheduled programming from the last seven days, dollar downside has continued early into this week’s trading, with USD/CHF currently poised to extend a seven-day losing streak.Cutting rates to 0.00% in their June decision, which would typically weaken the franc, recent policy decisions have done little in curbing dollar-franc selling pressure, with markets overwhelmingly bearish on the U.S. dollar.With recent negotiations breaking down somewhat, nervousness about the future of tariffs continues to weigh negatively on USD.Otherwise, the ever-polarising ‘Big Beautiful Bill’, courtesy of POTUS Donald Trump, continues to make its way through the Senate, raising questions on the implications to ballooning U.S. debt.Prior to recent weeks, and as an interesting parallel, the last time USD/CHF traded below 0.8000 was in 2011, shortly following the S&P’s downgrade of the US Federal Debt credit rating for the first time in history.Naturally, some similarities are to be had between 2011 and 2025, with Moody’s recently downgrading US debt from AAA to AA1. close U.S. Dollar Strength Index (DXY), TVC, TradingView, 30/06/2025 U.S. Dollar Strength Index (DXY), TVC, TradingView, 30/06/2025 USD/CHF: Soft US data releases anchor dollar pricing Suffering a series of softer-than-expected data releases in recent memory, markets have found plenty of opportunities to offload the dollar in favour of other currencies.Perhaps most significantly, last week’s US GDP left much to be desired, showing the American economy to have contracted for the first time in over three years. Otherwise, rock-bottom consumer confidence in June’s release paved the way for further dollar weakness, with the CCI falling to yearly lows.Put simply, on both a fundamental and technical level, dollar sentiment remains overwhelmingly negative. /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. 8fQFZ - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_8fQFZ(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-8fQFZ'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_8fQFZ(); USD/CHF: Technical analysis close USD/CHF, OANDA, TradingView, 30/06/2025 USD/CHF, OANDA, TradingView, 30/06/2025 Falling over 2.34% in last week’s trading, USD/CHF remains bearish. With price at 14-year lows, little structure exists below current price action, which could otherwise offer supportBoth the daily RSI and Stochastics currently rate USD/CHF price action as ‘oversold’, suggesting that a retracement is likely before a further move to the downside is possibleIf price is able to break down below current levels, bears will likely target ~0.78496 in the medium term Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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Seasonal flows for the month of July

Markets are already positioning for a new month after a notably volatile June – Discover the Monthly Seasonal trends for July.As a reminder, Seasonals look at the average monthly performance for different trading assets depending on which time of the year they do best or worse.While investors had begun to turn the page on US tariffs—with the past month marked by "TACO Trump" headlines and a revival of trade talks with China—the Israel-Iran conflict brought fresh volatility. Oil prices spiked, risk-off flows intensified, and ironically, these developments helped propel stock indices to new all-time highs once the conflict de-escalated.More recently, Trump reignited tariff discussions—this time targeting Canada and Europe—as negotiations hit friction over more aggressive US demands. The US-Canada trade talks were briefly called off after Canada prepared to implement a Digital Services Tax, which was ultimately rescinded. Talks have since resumed, but trade policy is once again becoming a market-moving theme – Get ready for the End-Session Month-End rebalancing flows! Read More: What levels to watch for the US dollar as markets head into July /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. ejtw7 - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_ejtw7(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-ejtw7'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_ejtw7(); July Seasonal Flows Equities & US Bonds So much for the adage Sell in May and Go Away:US Indices have performed decently well in July throughout the past 10 years, with the Dow up 3%, S&P 500 averaging 3.44%, Nasdaq with +4.64% on average.Other Indices around the world are also up on average in July, however less than US Indices. The Italian FTSE MIB leads with 2.80%, followed by the French CAC 40 with 2.30%, and the Canadian TSX with +2.12%.A sidenote for US Treasuries which tend to flatten (buy more long-end than short-end), with the 30-Year having its best month in the year (+1.30% on average in the past 10 Years) Major Forex Currencies July tends to see a fairly muted performance in Forex – Volatility tends to abate with less Central Bank meetings during the month and some traders going on vacation (at least those who had a successful first half).The Japanese Yen leads in Seasonality, followed by the Euro, GBP and CHF.The US Dollar, Aussie and Kiwi tend to be laggers in this month and the Loonie is seen mostly unchanged. Commodities and Cryptocurrencies Metals tend to be good performers in July with both Gold and Silver commonly up. The latter usually sees its best performing month, with +4.68% in the past 10 years.Oil on the other hand tends to correct, down -2.30% since 2015 in July, Travelling companies tend to secure their contracts for the active season during spring which leads to some calm in the Summer – There is still potential for out-of-the-usual flows in the upcoming month in the scenario of renewed conflicts in the Middle East.Finally, July tends to be giving strong flows to Cryptocurrencies, with both Bitcoin and ETH performing above 10% on average in the past 10 years – one thing to consider however is that growth for Crypto assets has been exponential, leading to statistical incoherences. It will be challenging to predict the reliability of past performances as these digital assets are starting to be traded by more participants.Safe and Successful Trades for the month ahead! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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Asia mid-session: Equities rally despite stagflation fears as Canada reopens trade talks; US dollar weakness further

US equity markets continued their bullish climb on Friday, 27 June, defying renewed stagflation risks. Core PCE inflation for May rose to 2.7% y/y (above April’s 2.6% and consensus), while personal spending contracted -0.1% m/m—the first decline since January, highlighting the impact of tariffs and economic uncertainty on consumer demand.The S&P 500 (+0.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.4%) both closed at fresh all-time highs, brushing off hawkish trade rhetoric from President Trump. He signalled plans to suspend negotiations with Canada ahead of the 9 July expiry of the 90-day tariff pause, citing retaliation for Canada’s digital services tax and threatening new levies this week. /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. bQqWP - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_bQqWP(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-bQqWP'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_bQqWP(); Canada U-turn boosts risk appetite in Asia In today’s Asian session, market sentiment was lifted after Canada scrapped the digital tax on US firms and signalled readiness to resume trade talks. This spurred further risk-on momentum, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures up 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, at the time of writing.Asian equities joined the rally. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.9%, heading for its fifth consecutive advance following last week’s breakout.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index pared early losses (-0.8%) to -0.25%, helped by a milder contraction in China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI for June (49.7 vs. 49.5 in May) and a slight uptick in Services PMI (50.5 vs. 50.3 prior). The Hang Seng TECH Index rose 0.1%. US dollar weakens further; Yen outperforms The US dollar extended its decline in the Asia session after the US Dollar Index closed the week below critical long-term support at 97.40. It is now down another -0.2% to 97.04, reinforcing the prospect of a sustained bearish trend over the coming weeks and months.The Japanese yen, previously a laggard, emerged as the top-performing major currency, gaining 0.6% against the dollar. USD/JPY is now trading at 143.90, testing the medium-term ascending trendline support from the 22 April swing low. Gold eyes rebound after 6% corrective pullback Gold (XAU/USD), down -6% over the past two weeks, is showing signs of short-term recovery. With prices testing key intermediate support at US$3,250 and deeply oversold technicals, the yellow metal has rebounded 0.4% intraday to US$3,287. Economic data releases close Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse) Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse) /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. VNVWR - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_VNVWR(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-VNVWR'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_VNVWR(); Chart of the day – Bullish momentum intact, Germany 30 is eying a fresh all-time high close Fig 2: Germany 30 CFD Index minor trend as of 30 June 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig 2: Germany 30 CFD Index minor trend as of 30 June 2025 (Source: TradingView) Since its retest and bullish reversal on the 50-day moving average seen last Monday, 23 June 2025, the price actions of the Germany 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the German DAX futures) have transformed into a bullish impulsive up move sequence (see Fig 2).Watch the 23,770 short-term pivotal support (also the 20-day moving average) for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 24,260, and 24,560/24,600 (Fibonacci extension cluster)However, failure to hold above 23,770 invalidates the bullish tone to kick-start another minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate support at 23,510/23,440 (also the rising 50-day moving average) before another potential bullish reversal materializes. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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Gold retraces, facing headwinds as positive mood dampen its demand

Gold is facing headwinds as bulls failed to retest earlier All-time highs ($3,500) even as global markets went ablaze through the past week war-induced volatility.Markets tend to react erratically in such periods and some movements are tough to understand as many participants trade their biases for different reasons – One thing to remember however is that a failure to achieve new highs or new lows despite many fundamental reasons to do so is a sign of weakness in the prevailing trend, leading to key reversal points.One example of this for example was the 2022 bear market in Equities, that bottomed on Meta's court-case headlines, and despite fears of high interest rates having the potential to mess up the hot US Economy, Equities failed to break their lows and led to a consequential non-stop rebound, leading to the AI Boom.The most recent highs for the Bullion were marked at $3,450, attained through some hesitant bullish impulses that were met by sharp reversal as war-fears abated. The Metal is now trading more than $200 lower, attaining levels last seen at the end of May.Explore different levels of interest for Gold and why bulls will have to show up with renewed strength to avoid prices correcting further. Read More: S&P 500 hits new all-time highs despite disappointing Core PCE report /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. 2xgcL - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_2xgcL(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-2xgcL'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_2xgcL(); Gold Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis Gold Daily Chart close XAU/USD Daily Chart, June 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView XAU/USD Daily Chart, June 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView The precious metal has started a corrective sequence this week with consecutive, small scale corrective daily candles leading to stronger selling seen today.Prices just broke below the 50-Day Moving Average and the 3,300 Key pivot mentioned in our past analysis, with the Daily RSI momentum going to the bearish territory.The selling flows are currently stalling at the Daily upwards trendline that led to previous rebounds, however a failure to hold here will invalidate the potential Bull flag that was giving markets higher probabilities amid past weeks' cautious market sentiment. Gold 4H Chart close XAU/USD 4H Chart, June 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView XAU/USD 4H Chart, June 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView The 4H RSI is currently trading in oversold territory, with markets showing an indecision doji as prices meet the Upwards trendline seen on the Daily timeframe.One sign for bearish confirmation is the faster moving 20-Period MA crossing below the 200-4H Moving Average as markets trade below the 3,300 Pivot Zone – bears will for now have to maintain prices below the key pivot.Bulls will be looking either to hold the current level for a break above the pivot, or else to buy a further retracement at the 3,200 Main Support that led to consequent rebounds in May.The Support Zone also comes at a confluence with the high of the April descending Daily Channel that may now act as technical support.Any break from there will then hint at a test of the $3,000 Monthly Support, though this level is still far. Gold 1H Chart close XAU/USD 1H Chart, June 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView XAU/USD 1H Chart, June 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold prices are progressing in an Hourly descending Channel with the most recent bearish acceleration meeting buyers at the previously mentioned trendline and immediate support 3,250.Sellers brought the precious metal to a tight bear channel which will have to be broken out from for hopes of a rebound. In the meantime, 1H RSI showing oversold and not progressing further momentum indicates higher chances of consolidation.Look at broader sentiment in Stock Indices for example and do not forget the upcoming 16:30 Bank Stress Test results that may create some demand if the results come in negative.Safe Trades! /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. 4KJKW - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_4KJKW(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-4KJKW'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_4KJKW(); Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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S&P 500 hits new all-time highs despite disappointing Core PCE report

Stock markets this week have been on a frenzy, with Nasdaq leading the US Indices to new all-times on Wednesday and the S&P 500 (futures, cash is opening in a few minutes) are joining its tech-focused collegue.Core PCE numbers did not come as good as expected with 2.7% vs 2.6% (Core m/m 0.2% vs +0.15% exp) – The jump is overall not so aggravating but it's one of the first negative surprises that markets are seeing for US Inflation since Trump got elected.Markets are awaiting and getting a few good news on the US trade deals – The latest is the White House announcing that the July 9 is in the end not too important, and Trump mentioning the completion of a Deal with China, however the details are still missing. Read More: Risk-on persists, JPY held firm, Gold extends losses to 4-week low /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. LhFSs - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_LhFSs(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-LhFSs'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_LhFSs(); S&P 500 CFD Technical Analysis Daily Chart close S&P 500 Daily Chart, June 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView S&P 500 Daily Chart, June 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView Taking a step back to the daily chart highlights just how volatile equities have been in the first half of 2025.One of the key emerging themes is the market’s increasingly muted reaction to Trump-related developments—especially now that the Israel-Iran conflict is fading from the headlines.Technically, the 50-day moving average is on the verge of crossing above the 200-day moving average—a “Golden Cross” that’s widely seen as a bullish signal.However, bulls will likely need stronger economic data to justify pushing risk assets to further highs.Futures are hovering just 10 points above the January ATH, and even the release of PCE data hasn’t sparked major volatility.The true test will come at the cash open—will traders show appetite for another leg of price discovery? S&P 500 1H Chart close S&P 500 1H Chart, June 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView S&P 500 1H Chart, June 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView The buying momentum after the de-escalation and ceasefire in the Middle East really has been mind-boggling. Dip buyers have had the hand in the past five years, particularly when bullish catalysts come into play (or bearish catalysts fade away)A 3-month recovery took the index back from 4,800 all the way to 6,160 current levels.S&P Bulls are following the 1H 20-period moving average to keep pushing their momentum, and with the RSI currently retracting, it will be key to see what reactions the Opening Bell generates.There is Intermediate Resistance at 6,170 and Potential resistance 6,200.To buy a potential dip, look at Support around the 6,150 level (close to Jan ATH), further support at the Resistance turned Pivot 6,100 and finally the 1H MA 200 at 6,040. Resistance Levels:Intermediate Resistance at 6,170Current highs 6,177Potential resistance 6,200Support Levels:Support around the 6,150 level (close to Jan ATH)Further support at the Resistance turned Pivot 6,1001H MA 200 at 6,040.Safe Trades as the Opening Bell rings! /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. e2qcu - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_e2qcu(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-e2qcu'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_e2qcu(); Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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Tokyo Core CPI drops to 3.1%, US Core PCE higher than expected, Yen steady

The Japanese yen has edged higher on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.57, up 0.16% on the day. Tokyo Core CPI eases to three-month low Tokyo Core CPI surprised on the downside in June, falling to 3.1% y/y. This was down sharply from the 3.6% gain in May and below the market estimate of 3.3%. This was the the first slowdown in Tokyo core inflation since February. The decline was largely driven by a renewal of fuel subsidies and a reduction in water charges. /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. ThAmv - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_ThAmv(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-ThAmv'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_ThAmv(); Despite the drop, the rate remains well above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, maintaining expectations for another rate hike in the second half of the year.BoJ Governor Ueda has signaled that the Bank will raise rates if it is confident that wage growth is sustained, which is critical to maintaining inflation at the 2% target. However, this week's BOJ Summary of Opinions showed that some members are more dovish, given global trade tensions and the bumpy US-Japan trade talks. Japan has said it will not agree to US tariffs of 25% on Japanese cars, and six rounds of talks in the past two months have failed to produce a deal.US Core PCE Price Index higher than expectedThe Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, accelerated in May and was higher than expected. The index rose 2.7% y/y up from an upwardly revised 2.6% in May and above the consensus of 2.6%. Monthly, the index rose 0.2%, up from 0.1% which was also the consensus. This was a three-month high and will boost the case for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the July meeting. USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY faces resistance at 144.49 and 144.64144.31 and 144.16 are the next support levels close USDJPY 1-Day Chart, June 27, 2025 USDJPY 1-Day Chart, June 27, 2025 /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. XfCgm - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_XfCgm(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-XfCgm'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_XfCgm(); Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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Canada's GDP expected to gain 0.1% May

In the European session, USD/CAD is trading quietly at 1.3653, up 0.10% on the day. On Thursday, the Canadian dollar posted strong gains of 0.63%, its best daily performance in a month.The US dollar has retreated against the major currencies as risk appetite has risen. The Canadian dollar has taken full advantage and has gained 5% against the greenback since April 1. /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. fOz5U - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_fOz5U(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-fOz5U'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_fOz5U(); Canada's economy expected to post small gain of 0.1% Canada's economy showed decent strength in the first quarter of 2025 with a 2.2% y/y gain. Much of the gain was driven by exports as US companies rushed to buy Canadian goods before US tariffs took effect in April.At the same time, domestic demand remains weak and Canada's counter-tariffs will make US products more expensive which will further dampen domestic demand.The economy is showing cracks, including weak consumer spending, rising unemployment and uncertainty over trade tensions with the US, Canada's largest trading partner.The Bank of Canada responded to these concerns by staying on the sidelines at the rate meeting earlier in June. The BoC meets next on July 30 and unless the economic landscape improves we can expect the Bank to continue its wait-and-see stance and maintain interest rates.The BoC will also be keeping a close eye on inflation ahead of the next meeting. The June inflation report showed CPI remained unchanged at 1.7%, below the BoC's inflation target of 2%. If July inflation pushes lower, there will be pressure on the BoC to lower rates.US Core PCE Price Index expected to rise to 2.6%The US releases the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, later today. The market estimate stands at 2.6% y/y for May, compared to 2.5% a month earlier. Monthly, the index is expected to remain steady at 0.1%. USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD has pushed above resistance at 1.3652 and is testing resistance at 1.3662. Above, there is resistance at 1.36741.3640 and 1.3630 are the next support levels close USDCAD 1-Day Chart, June 27, 2025 USDCAD 1-Day Chart, June 27, 2025 /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. dfMQD - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_dfMQD(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-dfMQD'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_dfMQD(); Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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What’s next for Oil after War-induced volatility fades?

Oil is known to be a volatile commodity, and hasn't failed to show some movement in the past few weeks.After consolidating in a two month $60.5 to $64 range, increasing tensions in US-Iran nuclear talk led to a breakout to $67 and shortly after, Israel attacked Iran which brought black gold 15% higher again, touching $78.40 – levels not seen since January 2025.There had been a theme of higher supply and fears of a slower global economic activity which had been holding prices down, but amid geopolitical turmoil (particularly in the Middle East), price dynamics have evolved.The question now is: What are the factors that will be moving Oil in the upcoming weeks?There has been a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which led to a tumble in prices – Is the ceasefire going to hold? How much will Iran be allowed to export to China?Any new tensions in producing countries that would lead to a rebound in prices? – The Ukraine-Russia conflict is still ongoing.Is economic activity going to hold despite a lack of concrete progress in US Trade talks?Stay in touch with the latest macroeconomic news to see any change to Oil fundamentals. In the meantime, let's take a look at an in-depth technical analysis to spot levels of interest for trading. Read More: Pound Surges to 3-year highs amid broad Dollar weakness /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. n4EIZ - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_n4EIZ(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-n4EIZ'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_n4EIZ(); US Oil Technical Analysis Daily Chart close US Oil Daily Chart, June 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView US Oil Daily Chart, June 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Oil has been in a secular downtrend since the $130 highs attained in 2022, and despite a major rise after the June 12th Israel-Iran conflict that took prices to highs of $78.43, a temporary resolution brought the commodity back to pre-war levels – correcting to $65 in just 2 sessions – a 17% drop.Since, prices have formed a bottom just around current trading levels – There is still an upwards trendline that is currently forming with the most recent lows.Momentum went from extreme overbought levels to slightly bearish and momentum is now closer to neutral. Let's take a closer look. 4H Chart close US Oil 4H Chart, June 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView US Oil 4H Chart, June 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The major tumble in prices after the de-escalation in the Middle East got stopped by buyers coming in at the 4H 200-period moving average, marking intermediate lows at $65 as RSI hit oversold levels.Since, bulls are trying to push prices higher but the 4H MA 20 is acting as immediate resistance that would need to be broken for increased probabilities of higher prices – In the meantime the outlook is closer to neutral.Zones of interest to keep on your charts: Support levels$65 Support Zone (current rebound in confluence with 4H MA 200)$64 High of May Range$63 potential support at Weekly descending channelResistance levels4H MA 20 ($67.20)$70 Pivot ZoneIntermediate Resistance $72 to $73Main Resistance: $75 to $76Safe Trades! /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. sMniB - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_sMniB(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-sMniB'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_sMniB(); Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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Yen rises sharply, Tokyo Core CPI next

The Japanese yen has posted strong gains on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.14, down 0.55% on the day. Earlier, USD/JPY fell as low as 143.75, its lowest level since June 13.Tokyo Core CPI expected to drop to 3.3%Tokyo Core CPI, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends, will be released early Thursday. Tokyo Core CPI hit 3.6% in May, its highest level in over two years. The market estimate for June stands at 3.3%. /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. uYVcq - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_uYVcq(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-uYVcq'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_uYVcq(); The Bank of Japan has signaled that more rate hikes are on the way, provided that inflation continues to move towards the BoJ's level of a sustainable 2%. However, trade talks between the US and Japan have hit a snag, with Japan saying it can't accept US tariffs of 25% on automobiles. The clock is ticking, as US reciprocal tariffs will take effect on July 9 without a deal.Will BoJ hike rates in July?The markets are eyeing a possible rate hike in July, which would be the first rate hike since January. The BoJ meets next on July 31, and if the two sides can reach a trade deal before then, it could cement a rate hike at that meeting. Even if the BoJ maintains rates at the upcoming meeting, investors will be keen to see the new inflation and growth forecasts.The BOJ's summary of opinions from the June meeting, released Wednesday, didn't provide much insight into the BoJ's rate path. Board members were divided over whether to raise rates in a period of economic uncertainty over the impact of US tariffs on Japan's economy. USD/JPY Technical There is support at 144.59 and 143.93145.27 and 145.93 are the next resistance lines close USDJPY 1-Day Chart, June 26, 2025 USDJPY 1-Day Chart, June 26, 2025 /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. B2pCr - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_B2pCr(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-B2pCr'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_B2pCr(); Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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Pound Surges to 3-year highs amid broad Dollar weakness

The Pound wasn't the best performer in the beginning to this month, amid a weakening UK Economy and a still too-high inflation which is forcing the Bank of England to hold higher rates – Cuts are not expected until the end of Summer.Unemployment Rate in the UK ticked up, GDP and Retail Sales ticked down – Only PMIs released last week surprised to the upside.Markets are forward looking, and players are looking ahead at better prospects for the Country which separated from the European Union in 2016.Effectively, British Trade is expected to meet less barriers ahead with historic deals reached between the EU and the US.On the other hand, the US Dollar has found some more weakness as markets are turning the page on the Israel-Iran conflict.Nothing new from the FOMC and a still erratic US President have done enough to give more reasons from market players to shift their positions out of the US compared to the past 20 years, hurting the USD (not even mentioning the recent Credit Downgrades) – Despite the US Economy still largely beating expectations.Let's take a look at the most recent up-move in the Cable and spot levels of interest in the pair. Read More: EUR/USD extends gains to 45-month highs, market eyes US labour data /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. nAlHY - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_nAlHY(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-nAlHY'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_nAlHY(); GBPUSD Technical Analysis Daily Chart close GBPUSD Daily Chart, June 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView GBPUSD Daily Chart, June 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Pound was subject to a 3-handle correction against the US Dollar earlier in the month – War flows shook markets and the UK released consequently weaker data.An accumulation at the top of its daily range got met with selling flows, taking the pair to Monthly lows of 1.3376.Since, the pair bounced precisely 4-handles higher, with Bulls taking support on the 50-Day Moving Average, reaching 3-year highs in the pair – Levels last seen since January 2022.Daily RSI is still not indicating overbought levels in the pair and there is still close to 1000 pips of movement before hitting the high of its Ascending Channel. 4H Chart close GBPUSD 4H Chart, June 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView GBPUSD 4H Chart, June 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Markets are trending upwards after buyers took support around the 1.34 Main Support Zone.Current price action formed a tight bull channel, however overbought RSI hints at a consolidation before continuing a potential rally towards the high of the channel, where markets may find Potential Resistance around the 1.38 psychological level.Any correction from here hints at a re-test of the 1.36 Pivot Zone that served as resistance in the previous consolidation. 1H Chart close GBPUSD 1H Chart, June 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView GBPUSD 1H Chart, June 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, buyers are still largely in control and momentum is strong, with prices currently rebounding on the Steep upwards trendline and the 1H MA 20.Pound bulls will have to break above the Immediate Resistance at last swing high (1.3765) to maintain their strength.A failure to do so will hint at higher probabilities of a break of the trendline for a return to the aforementioned 1.36 pivot zone, in confluence with the 1H MA 50.Safe Trades! /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. pf3BY - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_pf3BY(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-pf3BY'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_pf3BY(); Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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Asia mid-session: US dollar nears key breakdown level, Nikkei 225 bullish breakout from range

The recent two-day risk-on rally in the US stock market showed signs of fatigue as attention turns to upcoming economic data, Fed policy guidance, and tariff-related developments. Market participants are now eyeing the expiration of the White House’s 90-day pause on reciprocal global tariffs (excluding China), set for 9 July. /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. lHhaB - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_lHhaB(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-lHhaB'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_lHhaB(); Risk-on euphoria in the US stock market fades On Wednesday, 25 June, early intraday gains across major US equity benchmarks largely faded by the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed, losing -0.3% and -1.2%, respectively. The S&P 500 ended flat, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.2% to a new all-time intraday high, driven by Nvidia’s 4.3% surge to a record close. Asia equities diverge, led by Japan Asian stock markets remained mostly buoyant, supported by a weakening US dollar. Japan’s Nikkei 225 outperformed with a 1.4% intraday gain, breaking above a 7-week trading range to reach a 4-month high. Singapore’s Straits Times Index rose 0.21%, while the Hang Seng Index slipped -0.5%, bucking the regional trend. Fed Chair Powell maintains cautious tone In his second day of testimony before the US Congress (Senate Banking Committee), Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks from Tuesday, stating that the Fed remains uncertain about the inflationary impact of new US tariffs. He emphasized that there is no urgency to cut interest rates. The US dollar weakens further as the euro and sterling hit multi-year highs The US dollar extended its decline for a third straight session. The US Dollar Index fell -0.3% on Wednesday and slipped another -0.2% in today’s Asia mid-session, nearing a critical long-term support at 97.40. A weekly close below this level could signal the start of a multi-month downtrend.Meanwhile, the euro strengthened for a fifth consecutive day to $1.1665, its highest since October 2021. Sterling climbed to $1.3670, the strongest since February 2022. In Asia trade, the top-performing currencies against the greenback were the GBP (+0.3%), JPY (+0.2%), and AUD (+0.1%).The Japanese yen showed renewed strength, with USD/JPY falling to 144.80—below the 145.00 psychological threshold—ahead of key Tokyo inflation and retail sales data due Friday. Consensus expects Tokyo core inflation to ease to 3.3% y/y in June from 3.6% in May, still well above the BoJ’s 2% target. Gold holds above support amid dollar weakness Gold (XAU/USD) continues to stabilize above its 50-day moving average and key support at US$3,300, rising slightly by 0.05% to US$3,334 in the Asia session, aided by ongoing US dollar softness. Economic data releases close Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse) Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse) Chart of the day – Bullish breakout in Nikkei 225 from 7-week range close Fig 2: Japan 225 CFD Index minor trend as of 26 June 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig 2: Japan 225 CFD Index minor trend as of 26 June 2025 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy for the Nikkei 225 futures) have staged a bullish breakout from a 7-week “Ascending Triangle” range configuration, previously in place since 13 May 2025 that indicates the start of a potential multi-week impulsive up move sequence within its medium-term uptrend phase in place since 7 April 2025 low.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has reached an extreme overbought level of 81.20, the highest since 28 May 2025, which suggests that the Japan 225 CFD Index may stage a minor pull-back at this juncture before resuming its bullish impulsive up move.Watch the intermediate support at 39,145 and the 38,850 key short-term pivotal support to hold the minor pull-back movements with the next intermediate resistances coming in at 39,830, and 40,280 (15 October/30 December 2024 swing high areas (see Fig 2).On the flip side, failure to hold above 38,850 invalidates the bullish breakout scenario for the continuation of the choppy corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 38,600 and 38,150/38,035 (also the 20-day and 200-day moving averages). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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North American Equity profit from their weaker currencies - NA markets mid-week update

Markets appear to be turning the page on the Israel-Iran conflict, which had briefly supported North American currencies. The US Dollar found a bid as crowded short positions were unwound, driven by rebalancing flows and position closures.The Canadian Dollar also benefited, buoyed by a surge in Oil prices that temporarily reinforced the outlook for Canada’s energy-linked economy.However, both narratives have now faded. The Dollar Index has returned to the lower end of its monthly range, while the Loonie has weakened in tandem with Oil giving back its war premium.With geopolitical catalysts fading, market attention is shifting back to incoming economic data for the next directional cues on USD and CAD. Read More: Nasdaq reaches ATH, Equities around the globe from Fear to Greed /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. bYz6q - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_bYz6q(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-bYz6q'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_bYz6q(); North American Equity Indices Snapshot close North-American Indices performance since last Monday – June 25, 2025 North-American Indices performance since last Monday – June 25, 2025 Equity markets across North America are firmly back in "greed" territory, capitalizing on the recent shift in sentiment surrounding the Middle East. Selling momentum in indices continues to be short-lived, often countered quickly by eager dip buyers.The S&P 500 is trading comfortably above the 6,000 level and has just broken through 6,100, while the Nasdaq has climbed to fresh all-time highs.Meanwhile, Canada’s TSX remains above its record levels but is beginning to show signs of hesitation.The latest Canadian inflation data surprised to the upside, with a 0.6% month-over-month reading—highlighting the early impact of tariff-related disruptions. US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors close USD vs other Majors, June 25, 2025 - Source: TradingView. USD vs other Majors, June 25, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The picture for the US Dollar is more rosy than it was a week ago, with the Greenback lagging against all currencies except for the Loonie with which the USD is broadly unchanged.Market participants are investing in Dollar-denominated instruments more carefully, notably hedging their currency exposure through cross-currency options which gives underlying weakness to the USD. Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors close CAD vs other Majors, June 25, 2025 - Source: TradingView CAD vs other Majors, June 25, 2025 - Source: TradingView European currencies are taking the lead against their North American counterparts again on this Canadian Dollar performance picture.Weaker oil and higher Canadian inflation is not helping to bolster CAD performance – Markets will need to see further economic progress from the Land of Maple Syrup to see more strength in its currency. Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD close USDCAD 4H Chart, June 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView USDCAD 4H Chart, June 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView USDCAD found some relief as war flows benefitted to the US Dollar even more than the CAD despite preceding higher Oil prices.A 2.5 handle reversal took the pair towards the 1.37 range and after tipping at 1.38, sellers are coming back.Prices are consolidating in the 1.3740 Current Pivot, and contained between the 4H 200 and 50-period Moving Averages – any breakout above or below these containing MAs will give more decisive directions for newfound trends.Levels to watch for the North American forex pair: Support Levels:Intermediate support zone & MA 50 1.3675 to 1.3686Higher Timeframe Key support Zone 1.3560 to 1.361.3540 War swing lowsResistance Levels:1.38 Key Resistance Zone1.3770 4H 200-period Moving Average1.39 psychological Resistance Zone US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week close North American upcoming Data releases – MarketPulse Economic Calendar North American upcoming Data releases – MarketPulse Economic Calendar Except for Canadian monthly GDP figures on Friday (expected at 0%), most of the Economic data releases will focus on the United States.Tomorrow will see the release of the weekly Jobless Claims report expected at 245K (watch for any beat) and more market-moving, the US Q1 GDP figure expected at -0.2%.Friday continues the development of inflation data review with the Fed's favorite Core PCE monthly release expected to rise by 0.1% month-over-month to 2.6% on the year (releasing at 8:30 A.M).Any beat will slow the pricing of more cuts that has been progressively shifting after a few FED speakers (particularly Waller) have been appearing with dovish comments.Also do not forget the University-of-Michigan Consumer Sentiment release at 10:00 A.M. on Friday, expected at 60.5 – Markets will spot if fears from macroeconomic uncertainty continue to abate.Safe Trades! /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. DhoBT - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_DhoBT(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-DhoBT'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_DhoBT(); Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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Bitcoin dazzling recovery from War fear takes it back to its Range highs

The world’s leading cryptocurrency has demonstrated notable resilience in a week marked by geopolitical tensions and choppy risk sentiment.While traditional risk assets experienced volatile swings—gapping both higher and lower as headlines on the Israel-Iran conflict evolved—Bitcoin held its ground.A key signal of market resilience often comes at moments of maximum fear, when price action resists breaking key levels despite worsening headlines. That was precisely the case for Bitcoin.After peaking at a new all-time high of $112,030 in May, BTC pulled back, retesting the psychological $100,000 level.During the weekend escalation—when the US launched strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure—Bitcoin briefly dipped below this threshold, touching $99,000.Yet, despite the prevailing pessimism, sellers failed to hold below the $100,000 mark.This failed breakdown was followed by a decisive rebound, as markets began shifting away from war-driven fear. Bitcoin has since reclaimed the upper end of its recent range, indicating renewed bullish momentum.Let’s dive into the charts—from the weekly to the intraday timeframes—to better understand the current technical setup and what's the market picture for the leading Crypto. Read More: Nasdaq reaches ATH, Equities around the globe from Fear to Greed /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. PeXow - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_PeXow(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-PeXow'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_PeXow(); Bitcoin Weekly Chart – Prior indecision met with a sharp response close Bitcoin Weekly Chart, June 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin Weekly Chart, June 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView The previous weekly candles formed long-wicked doji patterns, signaling indecision and hesitation near all-time highs. This week, however, has kicked off on a more constructive note.From a candlestick perspective, a weekly close near the highs—especially with a breakout above the recent range—would confirm renewed bullish momentum. Until then, strength is cautiously maintained.That said, weekly momentum indicators remain in overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of consolidation—an outcome already visible on the lower timeframes. Bitcoin Daily Chart – Bullish sentiment supported by Daily 50-MA close Bitcoin Daily Chart, June 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin Daily Chart, June 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin is printing its third consecutive bullish daily candle, reinforcing the prevailing risk-on sentiment across markets.The 50-day moving average—previously used as resistance for the February pullback—is now acting as support, strengthening the current technical outlook.Meanwhile, RSI momentum remains near neutral but has shown a clear reluctance to drift into oversold territory.This suggests buyers continue to defend the $100,000 level effectively. A deeper correction below this threshold appears unlikely unless a new and unexpected bearish catalyst emerges for the crypto space. Bitcoin 4H Chart – Breaking out of the War Descending Channel close Bitcoin 4H Chart, June 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin 4H Chart, June 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView On this intra-day timeframe, we get a better view of the prevailing consolidation that is taking Bitcoin to test its highs.Prices had been forming a descending channel as sentiment started to worsen, however sellers could not maintain the bearish momentum.A rebound on the daily main support led to a breakout of the channel, with buyers now pushing above the pivot in confluence with the 200-period 4H Moving Average which only caught up to the uptrend.Momentum is not yet overbought, which leaves some space for movement.One test for buyer strength will be breaching the 110,000 key mark – a failure to break and hold above this level points to higher chances of maintaining within the 100,000 to 110,000 range.Key levels to hold on your intra-day charts: 99,000 to 100,000 Main Support102,000 to 103,000 intermediate support106,000 Pivot Zone & 4H MA 200 (immediate support)112,000 Key ATH Resistance109,000 to 110,000 Intermediate Resistance115,000 - 117,000 Potential Resistance (Fibonacci Extension of past move)Safe Trades! /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. cHwaW - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_cHwaW(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-cHwaW'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_cHwaW(); Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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Asia mid-session: Risk-on continues, Fed Chair’s dovish hint weakens the US dollar further, Gold stabilizes

Geopolitical risk premium continued to unwind across global financial markets on Tuesday, as risk-on sentiment gained traction following signs that Israel and Iran are now respecting a ceasefire deal brokered late Monday by US President Trump, despite earlier breaches from both sides.The de-escalation of the 12-day Israel-Iran conflict also drove a sharp bearish reversal in oil prices. WTI crude extended its losses from Monday, 14 June, registering a two-day decline of -15.3% to trade at US$66.05/barrel—effectively erasing the geopolitical premium and returning to pre-conflict levels. /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. 47n4W - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_47n4W(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-47n4W'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_47n4W(); Softer oil prices and Fed Powell’s dovish hint reinforced risk-on sentiment The retreat in oil prices has helped ease stagflation concerns, providing a tailwind for global equities. With reduced inflationary pressures, central banks may now find more room to implement expansionary monetary policy if needed.In his testimony before US Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell added to the dovish tone, stating, “If it turns out that inflation pressures do remain contained, then we will get to a place where we cut rates, sooner rather than later.” His comments echoed recent remarks by Fed Governors Waller and Bowman, who have hinted that rate cuts could begin as early as July, earlier than current expectations reflected in Fed funds futures, which price in a first cut at the September FOMC meeting (CME FedWatch tool).Powell’s dovish comments reinforced the risk-on mood. Major US stock indices closed sharply higher, led by the high-beta Nasdaq 100, which surged 1.9% to retest its all-time intraday high of 22,222—despite a weaker-than-expected Conference Board Consumer Confidence print for May (actual: 93.0 vs consensus: 100.0, prior: 98.4). The greenback drifted lower, with the US Dollar Index just a whisker away from a critical support level The US dollar continued to weaken. The US Dollar Index recorded a second straight daily loss, falling -0.4% on Tuesday to close at 97.97 after rejecting its 50-day moving average. It now hovers just above a key long-term support at 97.40; a weekly close below this level could signal the start of a multi-month downtrend for the greenback.In today’s Asian mid-session, the dollar remains under pressure. The high-beta New Zealand and Australian dollars are outperforming, up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, followed by modest gains in the Swiss franc and euro. Gold stabilizes at the 50-day moving average Gold (XAU/USD) has started to stabilize after Tuesday’s 1.36% decline, which saw it close at US$3,323 following a breach of its 20-day moving average support at US$3,350. The yellow metal is currently up 0.3% intraday to US$3,333 after rebounding off its 50-day moving average at US$3,300, supported by a weaker US dollar and softer long-term Treasury yields. Economic data releases close Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse) Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse) /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. 6ckp9 - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_6ckp9(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-6ckp9'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_6ckp9(); Chart of the day – Potential minor recovery for Gold (XAU/USD) close Fig 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 25 June 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 25 June 2025 (Source: TradingView) The minor corrective decline of -4.5% seen in Gold (XAU/USD) from its 16 June 2025 high to Tuesday, 24 June 2025 low has stalled and reversed upwards from the 50-day moving average.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has rebounded back above the 50 level after hitting its oversold region on Tuesday, which suggests a revival of bullish momentum at least in the short term.Watch the US$3,300 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above the US$3,346 near-term resistance (also close to the 20-day moving average) sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at US$3,400 and US$3,450 (see Fig 2).However, failure to hold at US$3,300 invalidates the recovery scenario to extend the corrective decline sequence towards the next intermediate support at US$3,270/3,250 (also the medium-term ascending trendline from 31 December 2024 low). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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Market Wrap for the North American Session - June 24

Log in to today’s North American session Recap for June 24, 2025Today was a heavily risk-on session with Equity indices on top of the board, with the Nasdaq notably attaining new all-time highs (currently trading right around the ATH).All currencies are leading against the US Dollar, which got sold off aggressively as markets are now moving away suddenly from the conflict that lasted about 12 days – Too much for a market that seems to only go upwards since April.One particular dynamic of today's session is the top performers in Forex that are seen as the typical safe-haven currencies – The Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc are both finishing the day up around 1% against the USD.Other Safe-Haven assets like gold got sold off pretty aggressively, with the precious metal trading more than 3.70% from its war-highs (currently 3,320 vs 3,450 – ATH is at 3,500).The worst performer in post-war flows is US Oil that gave back all of its premium and more: The energy commodity is trading back to the highs of the May monthly range, around $66 after touching $64 lows – As a reminder, Oil was trading from $72 to $75 for the past week – Trump posted on Truth Social that the US may lift the sanctions imposed on Iranian exports to China. Read More: US Dollar slides on de-escalation of Iran tensions /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. jFz1d - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_jFz1d(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-jFz1d'); fetch('/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_jFz1d(); Daily Cross-Asset performance close Cross-Asset Daily Performance, June 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Cross-Asset Daily Performance, June 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView A picture of today's performance for major currencies close Currency Performance, June 24 – Source: OANDA Labs Currency Performance, June 24 – Source: OANDA Labs The Canadian Dollar has lagged particularly against other majors except for the relatively weaker US Dollar, as Canadian CPI came at 0.6% month-over-month, a huge increase to the monthly inflation data.Another aspect is the underperformance of Oil, one of the biggest exports for the Canadian Economy, which tends to correlate with CAD Performance.The two top performers of today had been lagging against the Greenback in the past few sessions and sparked more than a V-Shape reversal – the CHF and particularly the JPY recovered most of what they had lost against the USD. A look at Economic Data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's session close For all Market moving events, check the MarketPulse Economic Calendar For all Market moving events, check the MarketPulse Economic Calendar Tomorrow will once again be mostly focused on Central Bank speeches, with Powell's second part of his US Congress Semi-Annual Testimony and Bank of England speakers with Lombardelli and Pill at the CCBS 'Transforming monetary policy' conference in London, UK.Also, do not forget tonight's Australian CPI data expected at 2.3% y/y. The inflation data releases tonight at 21:30 ET and will be key to the pricing of more or less cuts for the RBA, which has the potential to influence the V-Shape recovery in AUD/USD.Safe Trades! /* Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that the advertisement is never cached together with the page. HxCmZ - is a forced measure to prevent JS function from being overwritten. */ function load_advertisement_HxCmZ(){ let adSlot = document.getElementById('ad-slot-container-HxCmZ'); fetch('/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False') .then(response => response.text()) .then(html => { adSlot.outerHTML = html; }) .catch(error => { console.error('Error fetching the template:', error); }); } load_advertisement_HxCmZ(); Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

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