Key takeaways USD/JPY remains supported by a widening US-Japan yield differential. Markets are increasingly pricing a more hawkish Federal Reserve, with rising expectations of a Fed rate hike later in 2026, while the Bank of Japan appears likely to slow or pause its bond tapering programme despite an expected rate increase next week.The pair is approaching a key intervention zone near 160.40–160.70. Japanese authorities have already spent a record amount defending the yen earlier this year, making this area a critical level where renewed verbal or direct intervention risks may emerge.Technical momentum remains constructive in the near term. USD/JPY continues to trade within both a medium-term ascending wedge and a shorter-term rising channel, with momentum indicators remaining supportive of a further advance toward the 160.65, 161.14/20, and 161.60/95 resistance levels.The US CPI shock and a hawkish Fed The market enters today’s US CPI print, facing building macro headwinds and energy shocks stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Following a complete evaporation of Fed rate-cut bets for 2026, the market is aggressively positioned for a bear-flattening yield curve environment under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. With futures now pricing in a 61% probability of a 25-bps hike in October, an upside surprise in today’s CPI, potentially pushing inflation to multi-year highs, will solidify the higher-for-longer regime and maintain structural upward pressure on the greenback.BoJ’s balancing act - The June rate hike vs. bond taper pause Next week (June 15-16), the Bank of Japan is widely expected to shift its narrative toward becoming an active “inflation fighter”. Aggregated polls show nearly 94% of economists expect Governor Ueda to deliver a 25-basis-point hike, lifting the short-term policy rate to 1.00% from 0.75%, a level last seen in 1995. This hawkish tilt is directly responsive to the persistent inflationary impulses generated by the US-Iran war.Crucially, to mitigate political friction with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and stabilise a volatile sovereign bond market where the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has recently hit a 30-year high of 2.8%, the BoJ is leaning towards pausing or slowing its bond-purchase taper next fiscal year.By freezing further monthly purchase reductions (potentially keeping them steady near 2.1 trillion yen), the central bank hopes to cap the blowout of debt-servicing costs before yields breach the painful 3% threshold.The 2-year US Treasury/JGB yield spread is widening Fig. 1: 2-YR & 10-YR US Treasuries/JGBs yield spreads as of 10 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The shorter-term yield spread between the 2-year US Treasury and the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) has started to widen since hitting a 4-year low of 2.12% earlier in February 2026, which is also just a whisker above a major support of 2.05% (see Fig. 1).The spread of the 2-year US Treasury-JGB yield has rebounded by 60 basis points to 2.72% as of Wednesday, 9 June 2026, which implies that the US Federal Reserve is adopting a more hawkish monetary policy stance over the Bank of Japan, in turn putting downside pressure on the Japanese yen as it flirts around the prior intervention area of 160.40/70, where Vice Finance Minister Mimura, in charge of foreign exchange issued a “final verbal warning” to speculators on 30 April 2026 before actual intervention took place on the same day.Japanese authorities have spent a record $ 74.1 billion in the latest round of FX intervention to buy yen between 30 April 2026 and 6 May 2026, according to Finance Ministry data.Let’s now unpack the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.Grinding up towards “Ascending Wedge” upper boundary at 160.60/95 Fig. 2: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 10 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 10 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Trend bias: Minor uptrend with key short-term support pivotal at 159.75.Resistances: 160.65 (30 Apr 2026 high), 161.14/20 (4/9 Jul 2024 congestion & Fibonacci extension), 161.60/95 (long-term pivot) (see Fig. 3).Next supports: 159.45 (1/3 Jun 2026 congestion & 20-day MA), 159.10 (29 May 2026 low), 158.80 (21/25 May 2026 low & 50-day MA).Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias on USD/JPY Price actions of the USD/JPY have been oscillating within a medium-term “Ascending Wedge” configuration since the 27 January 2026 low, with its upper boundary coming in at 161.60/95 (see Fig.2).The recent minor uptrend phase remains intact, as price action in USD/JPY continues to evolve within a minor ascending channel in place from the 29 May 2026 low at 159.10 (see Fig. 3).The hourly RSI momentum indicator remains short-term bullish, holding above the 50 level (see Fig. 3). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Technology stocks staged a strong rebound, led by semiconductor shares such as Intel and Micron, helping the Nasdaq 100 recover 1.6% despite weak overall market breadth and continued pressure on non-tech sectors.Middle East tensions remain a key market driver, but a temporary Israel-Iran ceasefire helped cap oil price gains, reducing immediate inflation fears and supporting risk sentiment.Investors remain focused on higher interest rates and liquidity risks in mega-IPOs, with Treasury yields remaining elevated as upcoming listings such as SpaceX continue to raise questions about capital allocation across global equity markets.Chart of the day: AUD/USD’s rebound from Monday looks like a “dead cat bounce”. Watch the 0.7085/710 key short-term resistance.Chart of the day - AUD/USD struggled below 20-day and 50-day moving averages Fig. 1: AUD/USD minor trend as of 9 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The 0.7% rebound in AUD/USD from Monday’s Asian session intraday low of 0.7024 has been lacklustre. The hourly RSI momentum indicator has been capped below its descending resistance at around 58 (see Fig. 1).These observations warrant caution that Monday’s rebound may be a “dead cat bounce” within a bearish structure that has been unfolding since the bearish break below the 50-day moving average on last Friday, 5 June 2026.Watch the 0.7085/7100 key short-term pivotal resistance; a break below 0.7024 near-term support opens scope for potential weakness towards the next immediate supports at 0.7008/0.6995 and 0.6960/6945.On the flipside, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.7100 invalidates the bearish tone and opens the door to a squeeze up to retest the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which converge at the next intermediate resistance of 0.7120 and 0.7153.Top macro headlines Dip buyers unleash historic chip rally: Following a brutal selloff that saw global tech benchmarks routed late last week, dip buyers returned to Wall Street in force. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 1.6%, and the S&P 500 jumped 0.3% to close above 7,405, powered by a massive 5.6% to 6.5% resurgence of semiconductor giants like Micron Technology and Intel Corp. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed, losing 0.2%.Trump ceasefire call caps geopolitical oil surge: Crude oil sharply pared its early 4% weekend gains after a tenuous, temporary ceasefire was brokered between Israel and Iran. While Israel hit petrochemical targets in southwestern Iran over the weekend, Reuters reported that both sides subsequently lifted flight and movement restrictions, signalling a tentative pause in direct hostilities.SpaceX counts down to historic $75 Billion IPO: Elon Musk’s SpaceX is moving ahead with plans to raise $75 billion by offering 555.6 million shares at a fixed price of $135 per share. The historic listing, scheduled for this Friday, skips typical bookbuilding price ranges due to massive pre-IPO institutional demand, commanding a fully diluted valuation of $1.77 trillion.Fed hike fears soften on wage metrics: While a massive 172,000 nonfarm payroll expansion on Friday initially stoked hawkish monetary fears, institutional desks spent the session reassessing the data. Wall Street sentiment turned positive as analysts noted a cooling trend in underlying wage growth, prompting banks to downplay the imminent risk of an October Fed rate hike.'Sell Indonesia’ sweeps regional trading desks: Concerns over interventionist economic management and confusion regarding new commodity export rules have sent Indonesian assets into a spiral. Just five months after hitting a record high, the benchmark Jakarta stock index plunged, bringing its total decline to 36% and making it the worst-performing global index in 2026, while the rupiah collapsed to a new low of 18,180 against the dollar.Key macro themes A healthy reset in crowded tech allocations: Wall Street’s leading strategists messaged that last week’s deep pullback was an essential positioning reset rather than a structural market top. Citigroup aggressively raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,100 (a gain of around 9% from Monday’s S&P 500 closing level of 7.405), citing a significant step-up in corporate earnings power that will absorb upcoming mega-cap tech issuance, such as SpaceX and Anthropic.Cool reception for conceptual AI updates: Despite the broader chip sector’s explosive rebound, consumer tech companies bucked the trend. Apple Inc. shares slid 1.9% after investors gave a decidedly cool reception to the firm’s showcase of its next-generation AI platform, underscoring that markets are increasingly demanding immediate, quantifiable monetisation over product updates.Sovereign debt yield resurgence: As geopolitical alarms shifted to a low simmer in the Middle East, the safe-haven premium began draining from global bonds. Fixed-income yields remained anchored near multi-month highs, with global allocators bracing for massive upcoming government note auctions amid a structurally higher cost of capital.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to settle at 7,405.73, and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.6%. But market breadth was weak, with only 3 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors recording gains: Technology (+1.5%), Energy (+1.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.5 %). In Europe, the Stoxx 600 edged down 0.1% due to its lower semiconductor weighting.Fixed Income: Yields pressed higher on hawkish central bank expectations. The US 10-year Treasury yield advanced to settle near 4.57%. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield ticked up to 3.06%, and the UK’s 10-year Gilt yield rose four basis points to 4.94%.FX: The US Dollar Index lost its safe-haven traction, falling slightly by 0.1%. The euro caught a minor bid, hovering at $1.1538, while the British pound rested at $1.3350. The Japanese yen stabilised at around 160.20 per dollar.Commodities: WTI crude finished up 1% on Monday to trade near $91.27/bbl, and Brent crude rose to trade near $94.10/bbl, both closing well below their early peaks. Spot gold clawed back a modest 0.05% to trade at $4,330/oz, hovering just above a near-term support of $4,250/oz.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets under pressure: Before the New York tech rebound materialised, regional indices bore the brunt of global tech contagion. South Korea’s KOSPI index was severely damaged, falling by a staggering 5.5% on Friday as options market liquidations triggered a deep regional equity-clearing event. In today’s Asia opening session, technical rebounds have materialised, Nikkei 225 (+3.6%), KOSPI (+3.6%), CSI 300 (+0.3%), and STI (+0.9%).Rupiah trapped in historic lows: The Indonesian rupiah weakened about 7% year-to-date, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia in 2026, and fell further to a low of 18,180 against the US dollar, forcing emergency central bank smoothing interventions.BOJ intervention floor monitored: The Japanese yen remains deeply pinned against the greenback at around 160.20. The Bank of Japan remains on maximum alert for direct spot-market intervention as wide yield differentials continue to structurally favour the U.S. dollar.Top 3 events to watch today Germany Balance of Trade (Apr) - 2.00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXUS Existing Home Sales (May) - 10.00 pm SGT (consensus: 4.06M, Apr: 4.02M) Impact: USD, US stock indicesECB President Lagarde Speech - 10 Jun, 12.30 am SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways AI-driven equities face their biggest setback in months. A sharp selloff in semiconductor and technology stocks, triggered by valuation concerns and disappointing guidance from key AI-related companies, has halted the nine-week Wall Street rally and raised questions about the sustainability of the AI super cycle.Middle East tensions have reignited energy market risks. Fresh Iran-Israel hostilities pushed crude oil prices higher, reviving concerns over global energy supply disruptions and reinforcing inflationary pressures across major economies.Strong US labour data has revived expectations of a Fed rate hike. A significantly stronger-than-expected US payrolls report has increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, driving Treasury yields higher, strengthening the US dollar, and tightening global financial conditions.Chart of the day: WTI crude gapped up and rebounded from minor ascending channel support at $91.40/bbl.Chart of the day – WTI crude erased last Friday’s losses Fig. 1: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 8 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The price action of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for the WTI crude oil futures) gapped up by 3.3% in today’s Asia opening session to trade at $95.10 per barrel at this time of writing, erasing last Friday’s loss of 3%.Near-term technicals have flipped bullish, as the hourly RSI momentum indicator exited oversold territory and broke out above its former descending resistance.Watch the 91.40 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 95.45 would see the intermediate resistance at 100.00 (also close to the 20-day and 50-day moving averages) in the first step.However, a break and an hourly close below 91.40 would signal a retest of the 29 May 2026 minor swing low at 89.00. Below it extends losses towards the next intermediate support at 85.50Top macro headlines Tech deflates in brutal Wall Street reversal: Wall Street’s historic nine-week winning streak ground to a violent halt on Friday as a massive tech-led selloff intensified. The Nasdaq 100 Index plunged 4.8%, and a broad gauge of chipmakers tumbled 10% in its worst single-session routing in months, as growing anxiety over AI overvaluation triggered widespread institutional profit-taking.Geopolitical escalation as Iran fires on Israel: Middle East tensions exploded over the weekend. Following an Israeli strike on Beirut, Iran directed a massive salvo of missiles targeting Israeli territory. WTI and Brent crude futures immediately spiked 2.8% to hit at $92.70 and $95.40 a barrel in today’s Asia opening session, though gains moderated slightly after President Trump said the flare-up would not derail the overarching regional peace framework negotiations.Hot US jobs report shifts Fed target: The US labour market showed unexpected, robust resilience, with May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 positions, shattering the consensus forecast of 85,000. While the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, the red-hot hiring numbers prompted Fed funds futures traders to immediately price in a 60% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike as early as October 2026.Key macro themes The Great AI narrative fray: The unyielding “AI-drives-everything” bull market faced its harshest reality check over the weekend. A combination of hot macroeconomic data and localised tech earnings disappointment (e.g., Broadcom) has investors fiercely debating whether the current AI market cap demands a tactical correction, particularly as blockbuster private listings such as SpaceX threaten to drain liquidity from broader equity markets.The Mega-IPO liquidity drain: Wall Street trading desks are highly anxious over an unprecedented wave of massive capital calls coming to market. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has locked in a fixed $135/share price targeting a record-shattering $75 billion public raise this week, while generative AI giant Anthropic just filed confidentially for an IPO targeting a near 1$ trillion valuation. Capital allocators are actively selling existing liquid equities to free up space for these generational private tech entries.Sovereign bond yield resurgence: The combination of an inflationary energy supply shock and an unrelenting US jobs landscape has completely crushed any remaining expectations for central bank rate cuts. Two-year Treasury yields surged 10 basis points on Friday to 4.15%, signalling a profound multi-month repricing of global cost of capital.Global markets impact Equities: S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.2% in early Asian trade before easing towards a slight gain of 0.01% and 0.35%, after Friday’s steep losses, where the S&P 500 sank 2.6%. The medium-term uptrend, which began late March 2026, has officially stalled. Fixed Income: US Treasuries tumbled; two-year yields closed Friday up 10 bps to 4.15%. The 10-year Treasury yield extended its gains by another 4 bps t0 4.57% in early Monday trading, maintaining immense upward pressure.FX: The US Dollar Index gained aggressively against all G-10 peers on a cocktail of safe-haven flows and the hawkish Fed rate adjustment. The Euro flattened out at $1.1519, a 2-month low, while the British Pound hovered defensively at $1.3317, near a 1-month low. In addition, the AUD tumbled to around a 2-month low of 0.7022, and the JPY grinded lower towards the recent intervention zone of 160.45/65 per US dollar.Commodities: Brent crude gapped higher by 2.8% to trade at $95.40/bbl on the back of Iranian missile deployment. Spot Gold extended its losses from Friday, slipping to $4,315/oz as expectations of higher-for-longer global interest rates diminished its non-yielding appeal. Asia Pacific Impact Regional AI stocks routed: Tech-heavy Asian benchmarks bore the brunt of global tech contagion on Monday morning. South Korea’s Kospi index, the world’s top-performing gauge this year due to its exposure to memory and AI chips, tumbled 5.5% on Friday and opened 7% lower today. The Nikkei 225 also posted steep losses of 5%. Blood baths are seen in other Asia-Pacific benchmark stock indices: Hang Seng Index (-1.7%), China A50 (-1.6%), CSI 300 (-2.4%), ASX 200 (-0.7%), and STI (-1.4%).Currency interventions in play: The South Korean won slid to its weakest valuation framework since 2009 to an intraday high of 1,559 per US dollar in today’s Asia opening session, forcing the Seoul government to deploy an emergency series of curbs to support the currency. The Japanese Yen also remains deeply pinned, trading weakly at 160.30 per US dollar, keeping Bank of Japan intervention flags fully raised.Trade sentiment frozen: Early regional performance is further muted by traders waiting on major Chinese trade balance data later this week, as regional supply chains undergo structural realignment and linger amid lingering tariff anxieties.Top 2 events to watch today New York Fed 1-YR Inflation Expectations (May) – 11.00 pm SGT Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indicesUS-Iran peace talks/ceasefire developments Impact: All asset classes Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The Dow Jones Industrial Average is showing increasing signs of relative weakness, underperforming major US equity benchmarks since the March 2026 market recovery and now facing a potential bearish reversal after breaking below a key ascending channel support.Renewed US-Iran geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve policy have tightened financial conditions, creating headwinds for cyclical sectors that dominate the Dow Jones.A bear-flattening US Treasury yield curve is raising concerns about bank profitability and financial-sector performance, particularly given Financials’ large weighting in the DJIA. Following up on our earlier structural concerns regarding narrow market breadth and the underlying vulnerabilities of traditional cyclical sectors, on Wednesday, 3 June 2026, price action offered a stark confirmation.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) posted a significant pullback, dropping 1.21% to close at 50,692. Notably, the index opened near its high of 51,220.92 and steadily ground lower throughout the day, closing exactly on the session lows.So far, since the start of the current medium-term bullish trend on 30 March 2026, the DJIA has remained the underperformer among its peers despite hitting a recent fresh all-time high earlier this week with a gain of just 12.1% versus the S&P 500 (+19.1%), small-cap Russell 2000 (+19.9%), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (+33.2%) (see. Fig. 1). Fig. 1: Dow Jones (DJIA) & other major US stock indices performance from 30 Mar 2026 to 3 Jun 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Geopolitical risks, rising yields, and bear flattening on the yield curve Fig. 2: US Treasury yield curve (10-YR -2-YR) with US Wall Street 30 CFD as of 4 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The primary catalyst for this aggressive risk-off rotation was an escalation in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Fresh threats to the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, alongside reports of launched or attempted retaliatory strikes, sent shockwaves through risk assets.This geopolitical premium immediately bid up the energy complex, with both WTI and Brent crude jumping by around2%.Adding fuel to the fire, the US Treasury market resumed its hawkish repricing. The rising expectations of a more hawkish Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh have been putting sustained upward pressure on yields.Yesterday, Treasury yields climbed once again, placing a heavier discount rate on equities and tightening financial conditions further.In addition, the hawkish repricing has pushed the 2-year US Treasury yield up by 40 basis points since mid-April 2026, outpacing the 10-year yield and resulting in a bear-flattening of the yield curve (see Fig. 2).Bear flattening typically signals tighter financial conditions, which pressure bank profitability and, in turn, create a negative feedback loop in the DJIA, as the Financials sector carries the largest weight of around 27%.Let’s now unpack the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the DJIA from a technical analysis perspective.Dow Jones (DJIA) – Broke below minor ascending channel support Fig. 3: US Wall Street 30 CFD minor trend as of 4 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Trend bias: Bearish reversal of medium-term uptrend, 51,075 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 3).Supports: 50,541/390 (former all-time high area of 10 February 2026), 50,107 (also close to the 20-day moving average), 49,780 (former minor highs of 18 May/19 May 2026).Next resistances: 51,320/390 (current all-time high area), 51,566/654 (Fibonacci extension cluster), 51,930/955 (Fibonacci extension).Key elements to support the short-term bearish bias on Dow Jones (DJIA) The price action of the US Wall Street 30 CFD has broken below its minor ascending channel support from the 20 May 2026 low, putting the near-term bullish trend in jeopardy.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed a bearish divergence signal. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Bitcoin plunged 16% over the past two weeks and briefly fell below the US$70,000 psychological level after MicroStrategy’s partial Bitcoin sale shattered the long-standing “never sell” narrative that had supported market sentiment.Despite the sharp decline, several contrarian indicators suggest selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, including an extremely oversold daily RSI reading, a surge in long-position liquidations, and signs of renewed accumulation by long-term holders.Technical and on-chain metrics indicate the potential for a near-term bullish reversal above the key US$62,250 support level, with upside targets at US$74,880 and US$82,815 if buying momentum returns. Let’s unpack the primary drivers and the technical setup.The plunge and its fundamental catalysts On Monday and Tuesday (1–2 June 2026), the cryptocurrency market absorbed a significant psychological blow. Spot BTC/USD tumbled sharply, slipping below the $70,000 psychological threshold and falling 16% over the past two weeks. It printed an intraday low of $65,370 on Wednesday, 3 June 2026.The dominant driver of this week’s movement was the revelation that MicroStrategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, sold a portion of its holdings for the first time in four years.While the market impact is less about the absolute volume of the sale and more about the erosion of consensus, it effectively shattered founder Michael Saylor’s widely echoed “never sell” iron law.This pivot disrupted the pricing anchor the market had historically relied on, injecting uncertainty and triggering a wave of defensive selling.Technical and on-chain analysis suggesting a setup for a bullish reversal Fig. 1: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) medium-term trend as of 3 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The 16% plunge in BTC/USD has left it hovering just above its $62,250 key medium-term pivotal support and the lower boundary of its long-term secular ascending channel running from the December 2018 low.In addition, the daily RSI momentum indicator hit a significant oversold level of 21.8 on Tuesday, 2 June 2026, its lowest since 5 February 2026, triggering a 35% rally in BTC/USD over the next three months.Secondly, utilising TradingView’s crypto derivatives indicators for crypto futures and perpetual swaps, such as from Bybit, Binance, and OKX.Aggregated long liquidation data (derived from various exchanges) spiked to $482 million on Tuesday, 2 June 2026, indicating that many leveraged long positions in Bitcoin futures and perpetual swaps were forced closed due to margin calls.A similar rise in long liquidations ($481 million) also occurred on 5 February 2026, when capitulation led to a 35% rally in BTC/USD.Thirdly, on-chain indicator: the percentage of 1-year active supply for Bitcoin has declined steadily over the past three weeks, from 40.3% on 23 April 2026 to 39.3% on Wednesday, 3 June 2026, at the time of writing.Active supply 1-year measures the total number of unique cryptocurrency units that have moved at least once over the past 1 year. This metric tracks the portion of supply that has been involved in on-chain transactions during the trailing 365-day period.A decreasing active supply often signals accumulation by long-term holders, a bullish condition for Bitcoin in the current context.Hence, based on these factors, BTC/USD is now ripe for a potential near-term bullish reversal above the $62,250 key medium-term support, with intermediate resistance at $74,880. A clearance above it would signal a retest of the $82,815 medium-term resistance (also close to the 200-day moving average).On the other hand, a daily close below $62,250 invalidates the recovery scenario and extends the corrective decline towards the $57,590/52,590 long-term pivotal support zone. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equities pushed to fresh record highs as investor enthusiasm broadened beyond mega-cap technology stocks into small-cap industrial, energy, and infrastructure companies benefiting from the ongoing AI investment boom.Strong labour market data and rising inflation pressures in both the U.S. and Eurozone reinforced expectations of a more hawkish global monetary policy environment, with markets increasingly pricing additional tightening from the ECB and Federal Reserve.Capital intensity within the AI supercycle is becoming a key market theme, highlighted by Alphabet’s US$80 billion equity raise to finance expanding AI infrastructure spending, raising questions about long-term capital efficiency and balance-sheet sustainability.Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100 minor bullish trend remains intact above 30,245 key short-term support.Top macro headlines World Stocks hit historic peaks amid calm geopolitics: Major global equity indexes, including the S&P 500, MSCI All Country, MSCI Emerging Markets, and MSCI Asia ex-Japan, advanced to brand-new record highs on Tuesday. The broad rally was underpinned by a general calm across fixed-income and currency desks, alongside a lack of major shifts in U.S.-Iran border tensions.Alphabet stuns markets with unprecedented $80 billion equity capital raise: Google’s parent entity, Alphabet, shocked Wall Street by announcing an $80 billion equity financing program to back its staggering AI capital expenditures, which are projected to reach $200 billion this year. Legendary holding firm Berkshire Hathaway has already committed a major $10 billion block to the capital raise.U.S. JOLTS job openings surge to two-year peak: Economic indicators released on Tuesday revealed that U.S. job openings for April jumped to their highest absolute level in two years, led by a massive concentration in professional and business services. This rapid pace represents the quickest sequential expansion in five years, signalling robust labour demand.Eurozone inflation scales 3% handle in May, securing ECB June hike: Driven by structural forces, Eurozone headline consumer price inflation crossed the 3% y/y barrier for the first time since September 2023. Core inflation also rose higher to 2.5% y/y from 2.2% in April. These hot prints have effectively locked in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at next week’s ECB policy meeting, with traders pricing an additional 50 bps of tightening by year-end.Key macro themes The small-cap rotational AI capital drift: While multi-trillion dollar megacap behemoths capture mainstream headlines, an underlying structural rotation is developing. Tech and energy small caps are outperforming as critical components of the physical "picks and shovels” layer of the global AI buildout, allowing them to monetise large capex budgets away from over-concentrated tech heavyweights.Megacap liquidity demands & balance sheet fatigue: Alphabet’s massive $80 billion capital raise highlights growing cash demands among AI players. Despite boasting $126 billion in cash at the end of Q1, Alphabet’s massive capex burn rate, paired with $85 billion in fresh debt issuance over the past year, is prompting concerns over long-term capital efficiency.Sovereign monetary policy conundrums: Central banks globally are entering a synchronised tightening regime to squash persistent price pressures. With Eurozone inflation hot, the ECB is set to follow the G10 rate-hiking cohorts of Australia and Norway. Markets are subsequently pricing in a faster policy-tightening timeline from the Fed under the new leadership of Kevin Warsh.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 closed higher at fresh peaks with seven out of 11 sectors advancing, led by Utilities (+1.9%), Materials (+1.2%), and Industrials (+1%). Small-caps and non-tech cyclicals dramatically outperformed, while European bourses rallied 0.8% and the UK FTSE added 0.3%.Fixed Income: Global sovereign bonds enjoyed a rare relief bid. The long end of the U.S. Treasury curve rallied, dropping yields by 3 basis points. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield plunged a massive 11 basis points following a highly successful auction, registering its steepest single-day drop since April 2023.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index continued to trade within a minor range between 99.50 and 98.90, while the USD/JPY inched higher towards the critical 160.00 intervention threshold, keeping Japanese authorities on high alert. Conversely, digital safe havens buckled, with Bitcoin sliding 6% to break toward $66,000, printing an intraday low of $65,370 in today’s Asia opening session.Commodities: Energy markets firmed modestly, with crude oil contracts adding 1% amid uncertainty over an interim US-Iran peace deal. Precious metals stabilised, with spot gold holding steady near $4,484/oz as investors balanced sticky global yields with Middle East headlines, but remained capped below its 20-day moving average at $4,580. Asia Pacific impact Stock indices surge to records: Mirroring global risk-on transitions, regional bourses posted strong sessions. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index climbed to an all-time record, building on Monday’s massive 4.0% single-session explosion in South Korea. In today’s Asia opening session, rotation has been seen among Hong Kong shares and China’s “A” shares. The Hang Seng Index slid -1.7% intraday, while China A 50 and the broader CSI 300 index rose around 1.5% each. The outperformance of China “A” shares has been driven by an expansion in service activities, as the RatingDog Services PMI rose to 54.4 in May from 52.6 in the prior month.Japanese bond volatility: The 11 bps collapse in the 10-year JGB yield has significantly adjusted near-term domestic yields. However, markets remain tightly focused on the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy meeting next week, where the central bank is widely expected to signal a clear path for interest rate normalisation and tapering.Chinese energy inventories: Highlighting real-world supply shifts, data show that China is aggressively drawing down its domestic onshore crude stockpiles to replace regular oil imports, which have plunged to a 10-year absolute low due to high international costs.Top 3 events to watch today BoJ Governor Ueda Speech - 4.30 pm SGT Impact: USD/JPY, JPY crosses, short-term JGBs, Nikkei 225US ADP Employment Change (May) - 8:15 pm SGT (consensus: +117K, Apr: +109K) Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indices, GoldUS ISM Services PMI (May) - 10:00 pm SGT (consensus: 53.8, Apr: 53.6) Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indices, GoldChart of the day - Nasdaq 100 remains entrenched in an ascending channel Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD minor trend as of 3 Jun 2026 (Source: Trading View). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The price action of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel in place since the 19 May 2026 low at 28,588.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator remains in a healthy bullish momentum condition (above the 60 level).These observations suggest its minor uptrend phase remains intact. Watch the 30,245 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential push up. A clearance above 30,795 points to the next intermediate resistance at 31,050 (Fibonacci extension).However, failure to hold and an hourly close below 30,245 would negate the bullish tone, signalling a minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at 30,000 and even 29,700 (close to the 20-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Hey traders, a more personal note in my final contribution to MarketPulse.The charts and price action come before the narrative Trading can be quite chaotic and confusing, particularly when the world seems like its burning every day.Some headlines come and sound Market changing, but it turns out that everything is priced in and nothing changed – One of my favorite X poster, Conksresearch (a great follow for good content and laughs), will always say – Nothing ever really changes.So the lesson here is not to get lost in the narratives, and try to be critical on if a news is really regime changing or not.Sometimes a news will be regime changing, hence, it is important to stay nimble and flexible.At the end of the day, traders should always be concerned about two things, paying their bills and surviving in the game. The best thing that allows traders to do this is to actually follow the charts and not the narratives or their own biases (the best traders spend a lifelong adventure trying to avoid doing so).Watch out for your sources, follow the right people but most importantly, make your own judgment and question your biases! InvestingLive.com is a great resource to consult when you don't know where to look.Trading is a long-term journey Never underestimate the long-run – Ups and downs in trading are extremely common, but the best traders always made sure to survive long enough throughout these downs to eventually succeed.Despite all the promises from the gurus driving Lamborghinis, trading is rarely a short-term success story. Even if you do manage to become rich enough of off one trend, you have to make sure to be able to repeat this again without burning your account(s).With time, you will be able to recognize larger trends as they develop, be able to counteract your own thoughts that prevent you from doing what's right, and make sure to always protect your bread-making ability.And when you see a pattern that you have seen hundreds of time and prepared yourself to capture the opportunity, you can use the right amount of risk to juice it to the best of your abilities.Sometimes, months of struggles can be erased in a few good trades or days, so it is important to survive to be able to meet these opportunities – Hence the importance of not burning your accounts before doing so. Size is one of the most important element in this aspect – You should read Best Loser Wins by Tom Hougaard (legendary trader who always made his work public and free) as it covers a lot of the traders' psychology in that aspect.Trading and Timing As John Keynes said, one of my favorite quotes: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."As humans, we tend to have a very strong instinct of when things are wrong.But in Markets, overconfidence, algorithms, stop losses and positioning can extend an unsustainable trend for much longer than most can imagine.Still, this is more of an opportunity for traders than a flaw – Participating in extreme trends, like the ones seen in Stock Markets, can generate very strong trading signals.Trends are strong when they actually arrive, so fading them can be costly.When they break, of course, you will also have to have your own sets of rules to be able to not fall in a large trap.This comes back to timing: Make sure to respect the Market when it tells you something. If you're not comfortable with a trend, don't force it – there will be thousands of new trends to capture.And when things change, be ready to change your mindset with the new flows.Don't forget to take a step back We tend to be obsessed by the short-term while forgetting the longer-run.The only thing that I will mention here is to check out Weekly charts (at least once or twice a month) and Monthly charts (2-3 times per year) for you to see if any large divergence is occurring, so you can prepare yourself in the event of a large change.This can also help you to spot trends you had completely failed to spot.Get familiar with your game, but don't forget to innovate Success in trading is often found by those who think differently than the masses – Get familiar with your process, make sure it is consistent, strong, and sustainable, but most importantly, don't forget to question things and innovate to make sure to always be ahead of the pack.For those looking for a great website to visualize Markets – Check out Finviz!This was my final piece for MarketPulse. Thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website if you want to stay in contact.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equities climbed to fresh record highs after the US and Iran agreed to extend their ceasefire, boosting risk appetite and driving strong gains in technology and AI-related stocks.Hotter-than-expected US core PCE inflation at 3.3% y/y reinforced the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative, further reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.AI infrastructure and enterprise technology spending remain the dominant market driver, with blockbuster developments from Anthropic, Snowflake, Amazon, and Dell reinforcing the ongoing AI capex supercycle despite growing concerns over potential overcapacity.Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100 minor bullish trend intact, en route to another potential fresh all-time high at 30,728/795 with key short-term support at 29,700.Top macro headlines US and Iran agree to extend ceasefire: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq bounced back to hit fresh record highs on Thursday after the United States and Iran officially agreed to extend their ceasefire. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that a permanent agreement to completely wind down the three-month-old war is within reach, provided Iran satisfies key conditions, including uranium disposal and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz.US core PCE inflation jumps to 3.3% y/y, creating policy “wedge”: The Bureau of Economic Analysis released April's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, revealing that headline PCE inflation rose to 3.8% y/y (up from 3.5% in March). More critically, core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) climbed to 3.3% y/y, creating a rare inflationary "wedge" by running significantly hotter than core CPI (2.8% y/y), further squashing hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.Anthropic secures staggering $965 Billion valuation: Artificial intelligence startup Anthropic closed a massive $65 billion funding round, vaulting its private valuation to $965 billion and rocketing past OpenAI. The firm is tracking to hit a $50 billion annualized revenue run-rate next month after Q1 sales expanded 80-fold.Snowflake inks $6B Amazon deal as tech earnings explode: Defying fears that AI automation would kill traditional enterprise software providers, Snowflake surged up to 35% after signing a landmark $6 billion deal with Amazon and upgrading its full-year sales forecast. Concurrently, Dell Technologies skyrocketed 40% in after-hours trading, following blowout quarterly results.Key macro themes The rare PCE-CPI inflation wedge: A significant structural challenge has emerged for newly confirmed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. The Fed's preferred price barometer, the core PCE index, has broken higher to 3.3%, creating an unusual divergence from the 2.8% CPI benchmark. Because this underlying inflation spike stems directly from the Strait of Hormuz conflict choking global energy supplies, traditional monetary policy tools are constrained, and higher interest rates cannot lower oil transit costs but run the risk of severely bruising an already slowing economy.The K-shaped bifurcation of Wall Street vs. Main Street: The latest macro data dump exposes a profound macroeconomic split. Corporate profit margins remain near record highs as companies exploit structural supply shortages and the ongoing AI capex boom to drive revenues. Conversely, Main Street consumers are under acute duress; the U.S. personal savings rate plummeted to a near-historic low of just 2.6% in April, a level eclipsed in weakness only once in the past 18 years, as soaring gas prices near $5 a gallon erode real wage growth.AI Infrastructure overcapacity skepticism: Despite record-breaking stock market indices, a distinct undercurrent of institutional skepticism is building regarding the trillions of dollars pouring into AI capital expenditures. Several portfolio managers are warning of near-term overcapacity as commercial entities experience budget fatigue; for instance, Microsoft has begun cutting internal Claude code licenses due to prohibitive costs, while Uber has already entirely exhausted its 2026 AI coding capital allocation.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Wall Street rallied forcefully, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.6% to close at 7,563, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed, hitting a fresh all-time high with a gain of 0.8%. Overall, Technology (1.4%) and Healthcare (1.3%) led, while defensive sectors, Consumer Staples (-0.6%) and Utilities (-1%) underperformed. Conversely, European bourses fell, with the FTSE 100 shedding 0.7% and DAX dropping 0.3%. Fixed Income: Sovereign bond yields edged lower following the extension of the Middle East truce. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by roughly 3 basis points to anchor at 4.45% as the sovereign yield curve bull-flattened.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index weakened by 0.2%, pulling the USD/JPY pair away from the critical 160.00 intervention line. Risk-sensitive currencies, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and Australian Dollar (AUD), led the G10 currencies higher with gains of 0.6% and 0.3% against the USD, while the South African Rand (ZAR) outperformed across emerging markets.Commodities: rude oil prices extended losses, with Brent and WTI crude hitting close to six-week lows of $92.41/bbl and $88.52. In contrast, precious metals rebounded, supported by a pull-back in longer-term US Treasury yields, with spot gold surging 0.9% to settle at $4,496/oz, still below the 20-day moving average at $4,585/oz. Asia Pacific impact Equity and currency volatility: Before the late-session Wall Street ceasefire bounce, regular-hour Asian equity benchmarks fell by up to 1% as they digested sticky global yields. Currencies stabilized slightly following the 0.2% drop in the greenback, relieving pressure on the Japanese yen near the 160 psychological threshold. Asia Pacific benchmark stock indices recovered sharply in today’s Asia opening session; Nikkei 225 (+1.9% to record high), Hang Seng Index (+0.4%), China A50 (+0.5%), KOSPI (+2.2% to record high), ASX 200 (+1%), and STI (+ 0.7%).Corporate labour and tech supply chains: Highlighting an immense structural divergence, Samsung Electronics' advanced chip workers secured a historic 10-year corporate pay package including bonuses of up to $416,000. These massive wins by a regional bellwether are expected to significantly harden the bargaining positions of other domestic unions, introducing structural wage inflation into the region.Derivative infrastructure race: Financial localization is accelerating. While U.S. exchanges prepare to launch futures contracts tied to raw computing rental power, China is actively designing a brand-new futures market for AI tokens used to price localized AI services, sparking a structural derivatives race with Washington.Top 4 events to watch today Japan Consumer Confidence (May) - 1:00 pm SGT (consensus:32, Apr:32.2) Impact: USD/JPY, JPY crosses, Nikkei 225Germany Harmonised Inflation Rate Prelim (May) - 8:00 pm SGT (consensus: 2.8% y/y, Apr: 2.9%) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXFed Speak - Bowman (9.10 pm SGT), Paulson (9.15 pm SGT) Impact: Short-end US Treasuries, USD, US stock indicesUS-Iran peace deal news flows Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - Nasdaq 100 bullish trend intact Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD minor trend as of 29 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The intraday decline of 2% seen in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) measured from Wednesday, 27 May US session high to Thursday, 28 May Asia session low has hit an inflection level at 29,700.Thereafter, it staged a bullish reversal, which suggests that its minor uptrend phase from the 19 May 2026 low remains intact.Watch the 29,700 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 30,425 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 30,728/795 (upper boundary of the ascending channel & Fibonacci extension cluster) and 31,050 (Fibonacci extension).On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 29,700 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 29,433 and 29,110 (also the 20-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets are rallying due to the finalization of the Peace Memorandum, but final agreement by Trump and Khamenei are still awaitedWhile Nasdaq continues to price heaven and shoot for it, the DJIA is surprisingly unchangedExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Stock Markets are rallying after major diplomatic progress, as negotiators have finalized the draft of the much-anticipated US-Iran Peace Memorandum. Still, the deal is not yet official. Axios reports that while the main framework is set, final approval is needed from both President Trump, who has asked for a few more days to review the terms, and Supreme Leader Khamenei, before the agreement is signed.The draft shows a more balanced agreement, still tilting towards the US. The main points include keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and gradually lifting the US naval blockade over the next 30 days. The draft also calls for Iran to get rid of its highly enriched nuclear material and allows for free commercial transit in the region. In return, Iran will have key financial assets unfrozen, some economic sanctions lifted, and new systems set up for more humanitarian aid.Even with this major diplomatic breakthrough, energy markets are reacting quietly today. WTI Crude Oil is almost unchanged and remains below $90 as traders wait for clear signs that the strait will reopen. Brent crude fell sharply and is now trading close to WTI, as the international risk premium has disappeared. Daily Market Performance (14:28). May 28, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz The tech-focused Nasdaq is rising quickly, led by gains in semiconductor and large tech companies, running for yet another all-time high, but the rise isn’t uniform, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average mostly flat. Outside of the tech sector, most of the market is quiet, as big investors wait for the final diplomatic approvals by the respective US and Iran leaders.Now, let’s take a look at the intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) bearish breakdown below 200-day MA, further potential weakness aheadAsia open: AI Capex mania fuels world stocks to all-time highs as US-Iran peace deal skepticism lingersTraders are desperate for more news, but the status quo is positiveCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (14:32) – Source: TradingView – May 28, 2026 Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – May 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bulls are actually struggling to push the DJIA above the 50,750 major momentum pivot, despite a strong morning candle.This indicates a potential for a wider pullback, particularly if sellers push the action below the 4H 50-period MA (50,291).Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsIntraday Pivot 50,750 to 50,900 (morning highs)Memorial Day resistance 51,100 to 51,200Support LevelsFebruary ATH Pivot 50,400 to 50,500 (Short-term Bearish below)Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (mid-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – May 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is attempting a run to new record highs but the action is stalling as we speak right around the previous 30,300 ATH.Forming a bearish divergence, bulls will actually want to see a clean break in order to push for more price discovery – A rejection however would lead to at least a 29,535 retest (4H 50-Period MA)Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels30,300 Daily Top and ATHCurrent ATH 30,327 on the CFDSupport Levels29,535 retest (4H 50-Period MA)29,500 - 29,650 Pivot29,100 - 29,250 momentum support (short-term bearish below)28,000 minor supportPrior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – May 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is actually the only index reaching new record highs in today's session, but also forming a bearish divergence at the same time.This indicates that despite the new record, momentum is not as strong as indicated – This could precede a larger pullback to 7,500.If the bullish action continues however, 7,600 is the next step.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,550 - 5,770 Memorial Day ATH Resistance (double top!)current ATH 7,575Support Levels7,525 Past week's ATH Resistance now pivot7,450 - 7,460 Minor Support (Short-term bearish below – 4H 50-period MA (7,448)7,400 Key supportPivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.These are my final pieces on MarketPulse, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website if you want to stay in contact.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold (XAU/USD) has broken below its 200-day moving average for the first time in three months, increasing the risk of a fresh bearish impulsive decline within its broader medium-term downtrend.Rising US Treasury real yields continue to pressure gold prices, with the 10-year real yield staging a major bullish breakout toward multi-month highs, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum remains intact below the $4,456 resistance level, with downside risks potentially extending toward $4,320 and the $4,262/$4,250 support zone. This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) rally faces roadblock at 20-day and 50-day moving averages”, published on 7 May 2026.Gold (XAU/USD) has indeed remained lackluster in May and failed to break above its 50-day moving average after a retest of it on 12 May 2026.Thereafter, the precious yellow metal staged a bearish reaction after a retest on the 50-day moving average for the second time on 12 May 2026 (the first time was on 17 April 2026). It printed an intraday high of $4,774/oz on 12 May 2026 and tumbled by 10% to hit a two-month low of $4,368/oz at this time of writing.Intermarket and technical factors are suggesting further potential weakness ahead for gold. Let’s unpack them.Major bullish breakout in the US 10-year Treasury real yield Fig. 1: Medium-term intermarket analysis of 10-year US Treasury yield with Gold as of 28 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The 10-year US Treasury real yield (nominal yield minus the 10-year breakeven rate derived from the 10-year Treasury inflation-protected security) has remained resilient on the upside after it managed to find support at its key 200-day moving average (1.85%) since 15 April 2026.Thereafter, it rallied by 37 basis points to hit almost a one-year high of 2.26% on 20 May 2026 and staged a prior major bullish breakout from a former key descending channel resistance earlier on 15 May 2026 (see Fig. 1).These observations suggest that the 10-year US Treasury real yield is likely undergoing a potential major uptrend phase (multi-month), with the next medium-term resistance coming in at 2.38% next in the first step.Gold (XAU/USD) has a significant indirect correlation with the longer-term US Treasury yields, as the precious yellow metal is a non-interest income-bearing asset.Hence, further upside in the 10-year US Treasury real yield translates into a further potential feedback loop into Gold (XAU/USD).Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of Gold (XAU/USD).Gold (XAU/USD) – Start of a new minor bearish impulsive down move within medium-term downtrend Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term trend as of 28 May 2026 (TradingView). Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 28 May 2026 (TradingView). Trend bias: Bearish bias below 4,456 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 3).Supports: 4,320 (24 March 2026 low), 4,262/250 (Fibonacci extension & 23 March 2026 congestion), 4,187/167 (Fibonacci extension & 23 March 2026 swing low area).Next resistances: 4,500 (former range support of 21/22 May 2026), 4,580 (also 20-day MA), 4,645 (also 50-day MA)Key elements to support the short-term bearish bias on Gold (XAU/USD) Price actions continue to oscillate within a medium-term descending channel in place since its current all-time high printed on 29 January 2026 (see Fig. 2).Price action is now breaking below the key 200-day moving average, the first time in three months since a retest of it on 23 March 2026.The hourly RSI momentum indicator is in an oversold region (below the 30 level), but without any bullish divergence signal, suggesting near-term bearish momentum is likely still intact. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equities climbed to fresh record highs as the AI infrastructure supercycle continued to dominate market sentiment, with hyperscalers projected to spend up to $1 trillion on AI capex by 2027.Markets remain highly sensitive to conflicting US-Iran peace deal headlines, driving sharp volatility in oil prices, bond yields, and broader risk sentiment across global asset classes.Sticky inflation and increasingly hawkish central bank rhetoric have reinforced expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy, with traders now pricing higher odds of Fed and ECB rate hikes.Chart of the day: Nikkei 225 at risk of corrective pull-back below 65,665 key short-term resistance.Top macro headlines World stocks advance to record heights: Global equity indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and MSCI All Country index, eked out fresh record highs. The momentum remains strongly supported by an unyielding AI infrastructure supercycle that continues to overrule broader macroeconomic headwinds.US-Iran peace progress met with extreme skepticism: Volatility continues to rock the energy sector amid conflicting headlines regarding a breakthrough in the Middle East. While Iranian state media cited an unofficial memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a month, the White House forcefully rejected the report, calling it a "complete fabrication."Trillion-dollar tech IPO pipeline expands: Speculation surrounding Elon Musk's public market footprint is heating up as SpaceX prepares to debut on the Nasdaq on June 12, targeting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. Rumors are intensifying that Musk may eventually move to merge Tesla and SpaceX/xAI to build a unified AI giant. Concurrently, OpenAI and Anthropic continue to pursue substantial private and public funding sources.Central Banks implement hawkish directives: Global monetary policy cycles are shifting aggressively toward headwinds. Following recent rate hikes in Australia and Norway, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates on hold in a highly contested split decision that points to imminent hikes. Simultaneously, European Central Bank officials deliver strong hawkish guidance, emphasizing that rate hikes should proceed regardless of Middle East peace outcomes. The short-term interest rate swaps market is now showing an increasing odds of a 25-basis-point hike from the ECB in June.Key macro themes AI Capex Supercycle vs. Dotcom Bubble Parallels: Cloud hyperscalers are projected to pour over $850 billion into AI infrastructure this year and up to $1 trillion in 2027. While the massive capital expenditures are absorbing enormous amounts of operational cash flow and driving up corporate debt, analysts from Goldman Sachs emphasize that a market crash is not imminent, as these tech giants are delivering concrete, strong earnings growth compared to the speculative late-1990s dotcom mania.The repricing of Fed trajectory before key PCE: Heading into Thursday's highly anticipated April PCE report, the first major inflation data of the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh era at the Fed, economists expect headline annual PCE to accelerate to 3.8% y/y and core annual PCE to jump to 3.3% y/y. Sticky inflation and the ongoing war shock have completely erased 2026 rate cut hopes, with Fed funds futures traders now pricing in 60% probability of an active Fed interest rate hike by year-end.The sovereign yield burden & corporate debt safe havens: Due to sticky inflation, deteriorating public finances in Washington, and massive upcoming Treasury coupon supply, investor sentiment toward U.S. sovereign debt has soured. Consequently, fund managers are increasingly eschewing Treasuries to flock into top-tier, blue-chip U.S. corporate debt, as corporate America's balance sheets increasingly look more sound than Washington's debt.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Wall Street was mixed but steady; the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 notched new record highs, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished basically flat. Gains were led by consumer discretionary (+1.9%), with United Airlines gaining 6%, while software and chip names consolidated, with Qualcomm dropping 6%, and Nvidia slipped by 1%. Europe closed flat, and the UK FTSE gained 0.1%.Fixed Income: U.S. Treasury yields eased slightly by 1-2 basis points. A heavy multi-billion dollar 5-year sovereign note auction registered acceptable investor demand ahead of top-tier PCE inflation data out later today.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained mostly flat. The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) skyrocketed by 1.0% to emerge as the largest G10 mover following the hawkish RBNZ split decision. The Japanese Yen slumped to a fresh 4-week low towards 159.50 per USD, entering acute verbal and physical intervention zones.Commodities: Crude oil prices tumbled by 4.0%, sliding back below the critical $100/barrel handle as energy traders tentatively priced in the state-television peace rumors. Precious metals remained under severe pressure from higher global yield tracking; spot gold slipped further to trade near a fresh 2-month low at $4,456/oz, just above its 200-day moving average ($4,394/oz).Asia Pacific impact South Korean and regional indices explode: South Korea's benchmark KOSPI spearheaded global equity gains, skyrocketing 3.0% to print a major record high on Wednesday, 27 May. The explosive rally is heavily driven by its twin memory chip giants, Samsung Electronics (+158% YTD) and SK Hynix (+258% YTD), both of which have been vaulted into the exclusive $1-trillion-valuation club due to insatiable AI infrastructure demand.Japan eyeing June hike amid slumping currency: Despite massive sovereign bond yield volatility, reports reveal the Bank of Japan is actively eyeing a June interest rate hike. This comes as the Japanese yen's purchasing power sinks to fresh lows under the weight of expensive energy imports, leaving it tracking as one of the world's weakest major currencies. Concurrently, SoftBank is pulling in 30 leading Japanese manufacturers to back a major homegrown AI industrial data venture.India falter and capital exits accelerate: In stark contrast to its East Asian peers, India's benchmark equity indices are faltering as foreign institutional investors dump domestic shares at a record-breaking pace. Millions of retail investors are shifting capital out of the country into foreign markets (up 57% y/y) due to a complete lack of AI exposure at home, a rapidly depreciating Rupee, and consecutive fuel price hikes stoking structural inflation.Top 3 events to watch today US PCE Core Inflation (Apr) - 8:30 pm SGT (consensus: 3.3% y/y, Mar: 3.2% y/y) Impact: All asset classesUS Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - 8.30 pm SGT Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indicesUS-Iran peace deal news flows Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - Nikkei 225 at risk of minor setback Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD minor trend as of 28 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) have hit a short-term inflection/resistance level of 66,190/558 on Wednesday, 27 May 2026, after it breached above the upper boundary of a major ascending channel, running from the 7 April 2026 low.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator flashed out a prior bearish divergence condition at its overbought level before it staged a bearish breakdown below its 50 level.These observations suggest an impending minor corrective pull-back/setback. Watch the 65,665 key short-term pivotal resistance. A break below 64,620 near-term support (downside trigger level) may expose the next intermediate supports at 63,788/270 and 62,510 (also close to the 20-day moving average).However, a clearance above 65,665 invalidates the bearish scenario for a continuation of the bullish impulsive upmove sequence to retest the current all-time high area of 66,190/558 before potentially setting sight on the next intermediate resistance at 67,047 (Fibonacci extension). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Global financial markets are on edge as traders wait for clear details about the new US-Iran peace plan. After two months of intense tension and repeated ceasefire extensions, a concrete framework is finally being discussed. Both sides know what is at stake: the US wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened without conditions and Iran’s nuclear program dismantled, while Iran wants a full regional ceasefire and a withdrawal of US troops. The big question for markets now is whether negotiators can bring some still contradicting demands together in the next 60 days.Even with uncertainty still in the air, the current situation is giving strong support to risk assets. The fact that tensions are not turning into a wider war is a major positive change. This relief has pushed the tech-focused Nasdaq to new record highs above 30,000 this morning, up 4% since last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also broke records on Monday’s holiday and is trying to move higher, though today’s trading has been slower and more steady.This particularly reflects the large change seen in Crude Oil prices, down just shy of 10% since the weekly open. Daily FX Performance (15:56). May 27, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Still, there is some caution in the market because the White House has not shown much excitement about the final details of the deal. President Trump made it clear that Iran will not get immediate sanctions relief for giving up its highly enriched uranium. This firm position shows that, even though there is a Memorandum of Understanding, reaching a full treaty is still very complicated and faces many diplomatic challenges. Cross-Asset Daily Performance, May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Even if the risk of re-escalation has eased, many details are still unclear and traders are turning their attention back to economic data awaiting for the headlines. With few major events early this week, big investors are waiting for tomorrow’s important Core PCE report. This key inflation number will show if the recent oil-driven supply shocks have hurt the US economy more than expected, which could make things harder for the Federal Reserve’s next moves (the next FOMC meeting is on June 17).These are my final pieces on MarketPulse, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.With time, resistance and resilience, things will fall in order.Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website if you want to stay in contact.Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets are rebalancing from Nasdaq to Dow Jones as risk-appetite is staying stableTraders are still remaining hopeful due to the pricing of a peace process with a deal pendingExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock indexes are going through a steady rebalancing today, with market risk appetite holding steady. Instead of a big sell-off, large investors are moving money out of the tech sector and into the more stable blue-chip stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.Traders remain deeply hopeful about the broader macroeconomic backdrop, largely because the tape has already priced in the Traders are optimistic about the overall economic outlook, mainly because the market has already factored in the details of the US-Iran peace process.The new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) is the main reason for this positive mood, as it aims to settle the last major disagreements between the two countries. With the risk of energy supply problems now off the table, investors feel comfortable staying invested in stocks, even if the market's short-term gains are slowing down. One problem is that the latest news came more pessimistic than expected, with Trump announcing that he is not satisfied with the latest Iranian Deal – So that remains a story to develop.Upon hitting that historic target, short-term sellers immediately stepped into the tech sector to lock in massive profits, subsequently using that freshly generated liquidity to buy back the underperformed Dow Jones instead.This classic sector rotation is keeping the broader market entirely stable, capping the downside while investors patiently await the next wave of concrete geopolitical headlines to confirm the finalized treaty. Daily Market Performance (11:36). May 27, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Now, let’s take a look at the intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:The Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewAll about the peace process – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateCryptos fail to generate momentum continuous confusion – BTC and Ethereum (ETH) Technical OutlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:34) – Source: TradingView – May 27, 2026 Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bulls resurfaced at the prior ATH (50,500) and are holding the Market in place – Still, keep an eye on the key support and the Pivot level right above (50,800) to determine who has the advantage.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsIntraday Pivot 50,800 to 50,900Memorial Day resistance 51,100 to 51,200Support LevelsFebruary ATH Pivot 50,400 to 50,500 (Short-term Bearish below)Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (mid-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq wicked to new highs but is back once again below the 30,000 level, indicating some more doubts around immediate pricing – Keep track of the latest news to see if more upside is to be warranted or a correction could come.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels30,300 Daily Top and ATH29,850 - 30,000 Memorial Day top ResistanceCurrent ATH 30,327 on the CFDSupport Levels29,500 - 29,600 Pivot29,100 - 29,250 momentum support (short-term bearish below)28,000 minor supportPrior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is forming an intraday double top at 7,557, indicating that some trouble could be coming on the short-term.The action remains bullish long term but the latest news are clouding the picture.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,550 Memorial Day ATH Resistance (double top!)7,525 Past week's ATH Resistance now pivotCurrent ATH 7,557Support Levels7,450 - 7,460 Minor Support (Short-term bearish below – 4H 50-period MA (7,448)7,400 Key support7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracementPivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.These are my final pieces on MarketPulse, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website if you want to stay in contact.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to move sideways with ongoing confusion regarding the Iran peace processCryptos are not following Nasdaq as strongly as before, pointing to inherent Digital Asset weaknessExploring a Technical Analysis and trading levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and other cryptos are stuck in a narrow, frustrating range as uncertainty around the Iran peace process continues. Unlike traditional risk assets, cryptocurrencies are not following the recent surge in US stocks. While stock benchmarks hit new all-time highs after news from the Strait of Hormuz, digital assets have barely reacted. Bitcoin and Nasdaq correlation slowly fades – Source: JustETF.com. May 26, 2026 Bitcoin is holding near $76,000 and showing signs of resistance on daily charts, rather than breaking out. This slow movement shows that cryptocurrencies are not tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq as closely as they have in the past. The recent split suggests weakness in digital assets, as crypto investors are hesitant to take a clear direction while the outcome of the peace process is still uncertain. Daily Crypto Performance (16:37). May 26, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz It is still unclear if this underperformance will last. The lack of strong buying suggests that retail investors are holding back for now. However, Bitcoin is still holding its support levels even as the US Dollar rises, which shows that its base is solid – But some technical cracks might be starting to materialize. The question remains: If the geopolitical situation stabilizes, is there still a chance for a strong catch-up rally?Let's dive right into a technical analysis and key trading levels for both Bitcoin and Ethereum to spot if a clear breakout in indeed into play from here. Read More:Markets are sending mixed feelings on the peace Deal – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsThe Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewChart alert: AUD/NZD rally set to continue after hitting 13-year highBitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart and Technical Levels Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart, May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin attempted a breakout above its long-term pivot but could not hold it amid low conviction regarding a clean development for the US-Iran peace process.BTC could actually be forming a Head and Shoulders pattern, a bearish pattern that could take the main crypto back to $70,000 following a measured move approach.Still, as long as it holds above its 50-Day MA ($74,800), the outlook is more bullish-neutral than bearish.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:4H 200-period MA ($77,000)$75,000 Key long-term Pivot (acting as resistance)$70,000 Short-term momentum Pivot$60,000 to $63,000 Main 2024 support (recent double bottom)$59,935 February LowsResistance Levels:$74,800 50-Day MA$80,000 to $83,000 mini-resistance (entering, bullish above)$82,500 cycle highs$90,000 to $95,000 minor Resistance$98,000 to $100,000 Pivotal ResistanceCurrent ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart and Technical Levels Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart, May 26, 2026– Source: TradingView Ethereum is still showing weaker action compared to Bitcoin, having broken below its 50-Day Moving average ($2,220) and just holding above its October downtrend, leaving the crypto in a more balanced than bearish outlook.Any move below $2,000 could accelerate the selloff in the broader altcoin Market, but as long as the action remain above the key level, bulls can still remain optimistic.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:mini-support $2,000$1,700 to $1,800 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support (testing)$1,744 February 6 lows$1,380 to $1,500 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:Daily 50 MA $2,220Mini-Resistance $2,400$2,500 to $2,800 June 2025 Pivotal Resistance$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$4,950 Current new All-time highsThe narrative is easing, but keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways AUD/NZD remains in a firm medium-term uptrend after hitting a fresh 13-year high, supported by widening Australian-New Zealand bond yield spreads and stronger RBA hawkishness versus the RBNZ.Markets expect the RBNZ to deliver a “hawkish hold” at 2.25%, but investors continue to price in a relatively more aggressive tightening path from the RBA amid persistent inflation pressures.Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum remains intact above 1.2130 support, with AUD/NZD poised for a potential breakout above 1.2250 toward 1.2310 and 1.2380/2400. New Zealand’s central bank, RBNZ, is set to announce its monetary policy decision tomorrow, Wednesday, 27 May 2026, at 10:00 SGT follow by RBNZ Governor Breman's press conference an hour later.Market participants are expecting the RBNZ to hold its official cash rate at 2.25% tomorrow. The RBNZ has adopted a “wait and see” approach since it ended its interest rate cut cycle in November 2026, citing stagflation risk arising from the US-Iran war in the last meeting in April.The RBNZ will also publish its latest official cash rate (OCR) forecast track in Wednesday’s monetary policy release, with money markets fully pricing in a 25-basis point hike in September and further bets on the possibility of two more hikes of 25 bps each to come in Q4 2026.Hence, it is a “hawkish hold” for RBNZ after tomorrow’s meeting, given that the Q1 2026 core inflation rate in New Zealand came in at 3.2% y/y, staying above RBNZ’s 1%-3% long-term inflation target.RBNZ lags RBA in hawkish monetary policy stance Fig. 1: Australia-New Zealand 2-YR & 10-YR sovereign bond yields major trends as of 26 May 2026 (Source: Trading View). Despite the RBNZ’s potential “hawkish hold” monetary policy guidance, it still lags behind its antipodean cousin, the RBA (Australian central bank). So far, RBA has three times in 2026, a total of 75 bps.Fixed-income markets have continued to price in a more hawkish RBA over RBNZ.The 2-year bond yield spread (highly sensitive to shifts in monetary policies) between Australian and New Zealand sovereign bonds has continued its trade within a major uptrend phase since October 2023. Recent price actions have staged a rebound to 1.07% from 0.99% printed in the week of 18 May 2026 (see Fig. 1).Similar movement can be seen in the longer-term 10-year bond yield spread (more sensitive to inflation dynamics) between Australian and New Zealand sovereign bonds, which have remained resilient at 0.28%, trading at a near 6-year high.Hence, a further expansion in the yield premium of Australian sovereign bonds over New Zealand bonds is likely to put further upside pressure on the AUD/NZD cross rate.Let’s now unpack the medium-term (1 to 3 weeks) potential trajectory of the AUD/NZD from a technical analysis perspective.AUD/NZD – Poised for a bullish breakout above 1.2250 Fig. 2: NZD/USD medium-term trend as of 26 May 2026 (Source: Trading View). Trend bias: Bullish bias above 1.2130 key medium-term pivotal support (Fig. 2).Resistances: 1.2250 (15 May 2026 minor swing high), 1.2310 (Fibonacci extension), and 1.2380/2400 (Fibonacci extension, ascending channel’s upper boundary, 11 August 2011/2 October 2012 former range support)Next supports: 1.2050 (9 April/14 April 2026 swing lows), and 1.1990 (25 March/31 March 2026 former minor range resistance)Key elements to support the medium-term bullish bias on AUD/NZD The price actions of the AUD/NZD have continued to trade above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 4 February 2026, suggesting that its medium-term uptrend phase remains intact.The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has just staged a bullish breakout from a key descending resistance, reached its overbought region (above the 70 level) but without any bearish divergence signal. These observations imply that medium-term bullish momentum conditions remain intact. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Memorial Day session delivered a lot of positive news, creating a strong bullish outlook for the coming trading week. The recent US-Iran draft agreement gave the broader market a major boost, and now institutional investors are expecting a formal deal to be reached during this final ceasefire extension.A key outcome from these diplomatic talks is the clear expectation that the important Strait of Hormuz will reopen within 30 days. This breakthrough led to a sharp correction in energy markets, with WTI Crude Oil dropping by 7% during the holiday session.The US Dollar also fell along with crude, as the war-related inflation premium and safe-haven demand quickly faded from the broader economic picture. Cross-Asset Daily Performance, May 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView Although today's price movements were dramatic, trading activity was lighter than usual because of global holiday closures. Tomorrow, as traders return from the long weekend, expect much higher trading volumes and more decisive market moves as they respond to this important geopolitical development.Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Daily FX Performance (16:14). May 25, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

WTI Oil is back to early May levels, when initial peace processes were announced as Trump foreshadowed a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz in 30 daysCrude tumbles 7% in this low volume session, looking to confirm price and volume but the narrative is positive for Markets to start the weekExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil is experiencing a concrete free-fall today, tumbling 7% and crashing right back down to early May levels. The huge catalyst driving this violent downside action is President Trump's blockbuster announcement foreshadowing a complete reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz within the next 30 days. Peace Deal odds for July 31 – Source: Polymarket. May 25, 2026. Although this severe collapse is unfolding during a notably low-volume holiday trading session, traders are still looking to confirm the price action and volume. Regardless, the overarching narrative provides an incredibly positive, fundamental tailwind for broader financial markets to kick off the trading week.While the headline alone is enough to severely drain the geopolitical risk premium from the energy sector, traders remain acutely aware of the complex physical realities on the ground. Crude oil may only experience its true, structural correction once the strait actually resumes normal maritime operations (120 ships ~ per day), and even then, existing supply droughts will inevitably create lagging effects before physical prices can fully normalize lower.Nevertheless, this massive diplomatic breakthrough represents the most concrete, actionable news the market has received in over two months. Looking at the explosive reactions across global assets as futures markets finally open to start the (shortened) week, traders active during this holiday session are treating this breakthrough as a profoundly pivotal turning point for the entire energy complex.Now, let's take a closer look at the technical analysis for WTI Crude to see if prices can continue to correct. Read More:Markets are closed, but futures are exploding – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsAsia open: US futures gap up on US-Iran peace deal hopes with US dollar in retreatA final path to peace? Markets Weekly OutlookUS Oil Intraday Timeframe AnalysisWTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – May 25, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI Crude has just broken its large triangle formation, holding since Early April and forecasting more downside ahead.The headlines just landed and traders will have to be critical of how serious the idea of a Hormuz reopening really is, but what is sure is that the dynamic in Oil has changed.Reaching a key support, long-term bearish momentum will be more probable if the actions fails to rebound above the $96 level (top of the Momentum Support).WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$98 to $100 Pivot (4H 200-period MA Short-term bearish below)$103.03 4H 50-period MA$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance$109 Triangle resistance2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)Support LevelsMomentum Support $93 - $95 (testing) fully bearish below$90 Psychological level$87 to $90 mini-SupportMicro support $85$82 Friday 17 lows2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $801H Chart and action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – May 25, 2026. Source: TradingView A good sign for bears is the fact that despite the oversold conditions, for a first time, bulls haven't surged back in to buy the dip indicating a change in momentum.With the 50-Hour MA crossing below the 200-MA, expect more sells on pops rather than buys on dips.This confirms especially more if bulls fail to close tomorrow's session above the $96 highs.Breaching below $90 re-opens the way towards $80 and lower.Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Despite the Market closure for Memorial Day and other celebrations around the world, Futures are exploding on further peace pricingThis week is expected to be pivotal for further rallies to new highs, with more concrete advancements well expectedExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Even though the spot market is closed for Memorial Day and other global holidays, US stock futures are surging today as investors react to news of a possible peace agreement.The diplomatic stalemate is ending, with reports confirming that Iran’s top negotiator and foreign minister are in Doha to work on a deal to end the conflict. Iran is reportedly willing to send its highly enriched uranium to China, which is seen as a major breakthrough and is boosting risk assets.This optimism is driving equity futures to new highs – Dow Jones futures have reached a record 51,000, while Nasdaq futures are approaching the 30,000 level. The S&P 500 is also extending its gains above 7,500.As the shortened holiday futures session nears its end, momentum is slowing and traders are taking profits and waiting for regular trading hours to resume. The coming week is expected to be important for market direction, to see if diplomatic progress continues, and if further gains are possible.Now, let’s take a look at the intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Asia open: US futures gap up on US-Iran peace deal hopes with US dollar in retreatA final path to peace? Markets Weekly OutlookECB between fighting inflation and weaker growthDow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – May 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsDaily resistance 51,100 to 51,200daily highs 51,150Next stop 51,500Support LevelsIntraday Pivot 50,800 to 50,900Prior ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500 (now pivot)Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – May 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels29,850 - 30,000 New ATH ResistanceDaily highs 29,932Support Levels29,500 - 29,600 Pivot29,100 - 29,250 momentum pivot28,500 Minor support28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)S&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – May 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,550 Daily ATH ResistanceCurrent ATH 7,557Next stop 7,600Support Levels7,525 Past week's ATH Resistance now pivot7,450 - 7,460 Minor Support7,400 Key support (Short-term bearish below)7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracementPivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global risk sentiment improved sharply after senior U.S. officials signalled that a U.S.-Iran peace agreement may be nearing completion, triggering strong gains in U.S. equity futures and sending the U.S. dollar lower.The U.S. economy is showing increasing stagflationary pressures as consumer sentiment collapsed to a record low while inflation expectations continued to rise, placing new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh under immediate policy pressure.Asia Pacific markets rallied on easing geopolitical fears, led by Japan’s Nikkei 225 hitting a fresh all-time high, while Southeast Asia’s accelerating shift toward biofuels is beginning to create broader food supply and inflation risks across the region.Chart of the day: WTI crude bearish break below 50-day MA with key short-term resistance at $100.80/bbl. Potential near-term weakness to expose intermediate supports at $90.50 and $87.60.Top macro headlines US officials signalled an imminent US-Iran peace deal: In contrast to U.S. President Donald Trump, who stated earlier on Sunday that he told his representatives "not to rush" into any deal with Iran, senior US officials hightlighted that US and Iran are closing on in a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that triggered an intraday rally in S&P 500 (+0.8%) and Nasdaq 100 (+1.3%) E-mini futures in today’s Asia opening session.US consumer sentiment plunges to an all-time record Low: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped to 44.8 in May, the lowest level on record, falling below the pandemic and 2008 financial crisis troughs. The collapse is directly tied to soaring gasoline prices approaching $5 a gallon nationwide due to the ongoing Middle East conflict.Kevin Warsh sworn In as Fed Chair amid stagflation: Kevin Warsh officially took the helm of the U.S. Federal Reserve on Friday. He assumes leadership of a central bank navigating a treacherous environment where surging fuel costs are driving up inflation and rapidly eroding consumer demand.Gold Surges as dollar weakens: Spot gold prices rose 1.2% to $4,564/oz on Monday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower oil prices due to an uptick in optimism over an imminent US-Iran peace deal.Southeast Asia pivots to biofuels, threatening food supply: Cut off from Middle Eastern energy by the Strait of Hormuz closure, Southeast Asian nations are shifting palm oil and local crops into diesel and gasoline blends. This hasty transition is squeezing regional supplies for cooking oil, animal feed, and agricultural exports.Key macro themes Geopolitical whiplash & energy uncertainty: Conflicting messaging between US officials over US-Iran peace deal. While oil prices had initially hit two-week lows on peace optimism, the lack of a finalized deal means the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, perpetuating the global supply shock.Stagflationary pressures worsen: With consumer sentiment at record lows and 1-year inflation expectations rising to 4.8%, according to the final May reading of the University of Michigan US consumer sentiment survey, the U.S. economy is flashing classic stagflation warning signs. Rising pump prices are disproportionately impacting lower-income consumers, severely challenging the incoming Fed Chair's policy options.Food vs. fuel crisis in emerging markets: The prolonged energy shock is forcing structural shifts in emerging markets. Southeast Asia's desperate turn to crops for fuel highlights how the geopolitical oil crisis is spilling over into global agricultural and food security supply chains, compounding inflation risks.Global market impact (last 48 hours) Equities: The S&P 500's 8-week rally is showing signs of potential buyer exhaustion, according to several technical analysis elements. Even if a US-Iran peace deal is finalized, it could trigger a "sell the news" event, leaving the broader market at risk of rolling over as the historically weak month of June approaches.Fixed Income: Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a daunting bond market environment. With U.S. long-term 5-year inflation expectations surging to 3.9% (the highest level since October 2025, based on May’s survey data from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report), Treasury yields remain highly sensitive to any further energy-driven inflation spikes.FX: The U.S. Dollar weakened over the weekend, offering a slight reprieve to emerging market currencies and making greenback-priced commodities, such as gold and silver, more affordable for international buyers.Commodities: Oil prices initially hit two-week lows on peace deal optimism, but the market remains highly reactive to Trump's subsequent "do not rush" remarks. Meanwhile, spot gold jumped 1.2% to $4,564/oz, and spot silver surged 3.1% to $77.85/oz. Asia Pacific impact Stock markets & regional security: Key Asia Pacific markets are starting the week with a bullish footing, in line with the intraday rallies seen in US futures; NIkkei 225 skyrocketed by 3.1% to hit a fresh intraday all-time high of 65,330. China A50 (+0.7%), ASX 200 (+0.6%), STI (+0.6%). Regional defense and security are taking center stage this week. The Quad foreign ministers (U.S., Japan, India, Australia) are meeting in New Delhi on Tuesday, with the Iran war featuring prominently, followed by the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Friday.Commodities & food security: Indonesia and Malaysia's rapid shifts toward higher biodiesel blends to replace lost Middle Eastern oil are squeezing cooking oil supplies. This diversion is expected to drive up food inflation and disrupt export balances across the region.Diplomatic realignment: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is embarking on a visit to Japan to upgrade bilateral relations, reflecting broader regional efforts to secure energy cooperation and maritime security amid global instability.Top 2 events to watch today US-Iran peace deal news flows Impact: All asset classesSG Core Inflation (Apr) - 1:00 SGT (consensus: 1.7% y/y, Mar: 1.7%) Impact: USD/SGD, SGD crosses, STIChart of the day - WTI crude bearish break below 50-day moving average Fig. 1: West Texas oil CFD minor trend as of 25 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The price actions of the West Texas oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) have staged an intraday bearish breakdown below its 50-day moving average on Monday, 25 May’s Asian opening season, its first breakdown after prior price actions challenged the 50-day moving average on the previous two occasions (6 May 2026, and 17 April 2026).Hourly RSI momentum is still showing near-term bearish momentum conditions (oversold but no bullish divergence condition).Watch the $100.80 short-term pivotal resistance (also close to the 50-day moving average) for further potential weakness to expose the next intermediate supports at $90.50 and $87.60.On the flip side, a clearance with an hourly close above $100.80 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at $105.75 and $109.35. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.Participants went through a rollercoaster of emotions in the past week between a rejected Iranian offer to a severe hawkish repricing and finally, a promising path to peaceTraders are getting ready for next week's important bet for peaceGet ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.Week in review – Earnings break records, pulling Markets higher Market participants endured an absolute rollercoaster of emotions over the past five sessions, navigating a landscape that violently whipsawed between extreme fear and sudden euphoria. The week kicked off with intense anxiety as the United States firmly rejected an initial Iranian diplomatic offer, a move that immediately spiked crude oil prices and threatened to reignite severe inflationary pressures.Compounding this geopolitical dread was a severe, hawkish monetary repricing. Following the official confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the incoming Federal Reserve Chairman, institutional capital aggressively scrambled to price in a revolutionary, austere era of balance sheet reduction. This emerging trade unleashed a ruthless wave of US Dollar dominance, temporarily suffocating equities, precious metals, and crypto beneath the weight of surging bond yields.However, just as the technical charts looked their bleakest, the narrative completely flipped. A sudden, highly promising path to peace emerged, supported by strategic Middle Eastern mediation. This breakthrough triggered a massive, risk-on relief rally heading into the weekend. As the geopolitical clouds finally begin to clear, traders are aggressively recalibrating their portfolios, getting ready for next week's incredibly important bet on global stability.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes Weekly Asset Performance – May 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView With Oil tumbling 7%, the rest of the Market shines – European Stock Markets are once again at the top of global assets.Keep an eye on the huge outflows in Cryptos towards the end of the week. Discover:ECB between fighting inflation and weaker growthStock Markets dance towards new records ahead of a long weekend – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsUSD/JPY trades close to 160.00 after Japan's CPI – More interventions required? – FX AnalysisThe Week Ahead – GDP releases and a potential path to peaceAsia Pacific Markets – RBNZ Meeting, Australian and Japanese CPI The entire action in Asia will be focused on Wednesday and Thursday, with a key inflation release for Australia, shortly followed by the RBNZ Rate Decision, where a hike is mostly priced.And don't forget the Japanese (Tokyo) CPI on Thursday evening.Europe and UK Markets – German CPI and many Central Bank Speeches The action will be relatively dull in Europe with only Central Bank Speeches, all the way to Friday with the German CPI.Expect European traders to focus on US Dollar flows and the entire Iran peace process.North American Markets – US and Canadian GDP Next week will be focusing on the American and Canadian GDP releases, in between a few lower tier numbers.Don't forget to keep a close eye on US Markets and the entire US-Iran peace process, with huge expectations for an actual entente.Next Week's High Tier Economic Events Next week's Economic Calendar – Courtesy of TradingEconomics Safe Trades and keep an eye on US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.