Gold prices are up 60% year to date and Bank of America's Michael Hartnett is out with a bold call on hard assets, tagging energy as the ultimate contrarian play.Hartnett, the Chief Investment Strategist at BofA, is looking past the current tech euphoria and digging into the beaten-down sectors. In his latest note, he argues that the macro backdrop is shifting in favor of commodities.He believes the Trump administration’s economic policy will continue to press the economy to run economy hot. He labels the "despised oil/energy" sector as the best contrarian trade for 2026.A 60% rally in oil prices in 2026 would take WTI to $96 per barrel. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The trade war isn't hurting China as it posted another massive trade surplus in November, one of its largest ever.Surplus of USD 111.68 billion vs $90.7 billion priorUSD denominated Nov imports +1.9%USD denominated Nov exports +5.9% Nov rare earth exports 5494 tonnes vs 4343 tonnes in OctYear through Nov surplus of 7708 billion yuanThese are astonishing numbers given the trade war. China is steamrolling the global competition for exports. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Shareholders of Confluent ($CFLT) might be about to have a great start to the week, though it's a sad end or the highly-touted IPO.The WSJ reports that IBM is near an $11 billion deal to buy the company. On Friday, shares closed at $23.14 with a market cap of $8 billion. That would imply a 37% premium or $31.70 per share.Shares are currently trading $28.60 after hours, up about 22%. It's not clear if the deal accounts for the $800m in net cash on Confluent's balance sheet so the ultimate per-share value could be lower to account for that."A deal could be announced as soon as Monday, the people said, cautioning that the talks could still fall apart," the WSJ writes.However, given the tone of this report, I'd wager a very high chance of a deal. For the bigger picture, Confluent acts as a central nervous system for companies, allowing their different software and apps to share data instantly as events happen. Instead of waiting for daily reports or overnight updates, Confluent connects everything in real-time—so when you buy a plane ticket, your bank, the airline app, and the ticket inventory update simultaneously and the banking software can communicate.Despite the win on Monday, this is a long-term loser for shares of CFLT. The IPO price was $36 in 2021 and rose as high as $94.97 in the following months. It traded above $30 as recently as February.Over the past four quarters, the company has posted about $1 billion in revenue but also a GAAP loss, and I'm not sure shareholders of IBM will like that. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold is up $14.40 to $4210 in early Asian trading to start the week. The main driver of gold this week will be the FOMC decision and how dovish/hawkish the messages from Powell are and the dots. A cut is all-but assured.Zooming out, the last week of low gold volatility is a real outlier over the past few months. We've been stuck close to $4200 and that can't last. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Will not extend electricity rebatesDecision on Austal is imminentThe electricity comment is inflationary and the RBA should look through it but there are inflationary pressures building in 2026 and a rate hike late in the year is increasingly the base case This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

In an interview on Sunday published by Los Echos, French President Emmanuel Macron hinted at a US-style trade war on China.He said he spoke with Chinese officials and warned them what's coming."I told them that if they do not react, we Europeans would be forced, in the coming months, to take strong measures following the example of the United States, such as imposing tariffs on Chinese products," he said.The 'coming months' part is particularly notable, though it's unclear what strings the EU could pull."I tried to explain to the Chinese that their trade surplus is unsustainable because they are killing their own customers, particularly by no longer importing much from us," Macron said.I've written about this before but the US might not have been just a gamechanger for US-global relations but with how the rest of the world interacts with each other. We may frequently see larger countries try to squeeze smaller trading partners, or -- in this case -- trading giants collide. The EU's goods trade deficit with China has ballooned by nearly 60% since 2019 and China is coming after the European auto market.The thing is, Europe immediately rolled over on US tariffs so it's not exactly projecting a backbone. The fragmentation of the eurozone also makes it extremely difficult to project a united front. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Good on anyone who sniffed out the Warner Brothers sale last year as it's been better than a 3x trade.The upside is now limited to $27.75 per shares, which is what Netflix bid as part of the $72 billion equity deal plus debt. It's a huge bid in a tough industry as Netflix tries to put its stamp on traditional media.The downside in WBD is now considerable as Trump weighed in on potential anti-trust questions.“I’ll be involved in that decision," Trump said Sunday.“They have a very big market share,” Trump said. “And when they have Warner Brothers, that share goes up a lot.”Keep in mind that Trump is not friendly with Netflix founder Reid Hastings. For years, Hastings positioned himself as one of Trump's most prominent corporate critics. He donated $7 million to a pro-Kamala Harris Super PAC and was a leading voice pressuring Joe Biden to step down to make way for a stronger candidate against Trump.Since the election though, he has gone quiet but Trump surely hasn't forgotten which side he was on. I don't see any reason to chase a 6% merger arb here with an indeterminate timeline. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Late last week, I spoke with Dale Pinkert at Forex Analytix about markets. The prior time I spoke with in early Sept, I pushed hard on the idea that gold was going to run and it certainly did. As we head into year-end, the setup for 2026 is getting fascinating.We covered a massive amount of ground in this one—from the "chaos trade" in D.C. to why I’m looking at some unloved sectors right now.Here are a few highlights from our chat:Silver is waking up: Gold has had a great run, but Silver is finally making new highs. Retail is getting involved, and the industrial/AI demand case is becoming undeniable.The Supreme Court "Game Changer": Everyone is focused on the Fed, but I told Dale the biggest macro event of early 2026 might be the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs. If they block the President's ability to impose them unilaterally, we could see a massive move in bonds and the dollar.Is the AI Trade getting tired? I love the tech rally, but betting on Nvidia to maintain 80% profit margins forever is a bet against capitalism. The chart is looking a little "toppy," and a rotation might be due.My Contrarian Pick (Airlines): I know, I know—it's the sector everyone loves to hate. But between loyalty programs acting like cash annuities, Boomers traveling non-stop, and valuations at 4x earnings, the risk/reward in names like $JETS is too good to ignore.The "Pain Trade": Despite all the dysfunction and noise, the economy just keeps chugging along at 2%. What is it, listen to find out. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prelim was -1.8%Prior was +2.3% q/qGDP q/q -0.6% vs -0.5% expectedq/q private consumption +0.2% vs +0.1% prelimExternal demand -0.2% vs -0.2% prelim This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +4483B This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump and Carney were at the World Cup draw on Friday and were cordial."They're very tough traders but I have a very good relationship with the prime minster and with Canada," he said."We'll see — the problem is that Canada makes a lot of things we don't need because we make them also, but we'll work it out. Canada is a special place and they are really good at ice hockey, aren't they?" This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.1%Overtime pay +1.5% vs +1.0% priorReal cash earnings -0.7%The Bank of Japan still isn't priced for a hike next week but this is another reason to believe that one is coming. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Futures trading has resumed with some small moves so far.S&P 500 futures up 5 points, or 0.05%Gold futures up $3WTI futures up 10-centsIf spoos finish higher today, it will be the fifth day in a row of gains and 10th in the past 11. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's easy-come, easy-go in the bitcoin market this weekend.Earlier today it sank all the way to $87,800 and then stormed to a high of $91,700 in a straight-line move. Now though, the bears are back in control and have dragged it down to $89,577.That's not a great sign for overall risk appetite into the new week but the Dec 5 range of $88,000-92,000 is still the space to watch for a break. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Happy Monday Asia-Pacific traders. Eamonn is out this week so I will be filling in and having some fun along the way:Here is how each currency is performing on the day so far:Euro: Up by 0.0003Japanese Yen: Down by 0.13British Pound: Down by 0.0010Swiss Franc: Down by 0.0009Canadian Dollar: Up by 0.0017Australian Dollar: Down by 0.0003New Zealand $: Up by 0.0002That's nothing too exciting so far but note that we saw some strong bitcoin strength earlier, though it's fading over the past hour. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold Futures Technical Analysis Today: Key Reversal Zone Emerging on the 4 Hour Chart as Traders Watch 4,210 and the Lower ChannelIn this Gold futures technical analysis on the 4 hour chart, we explore why gold may be approaching a very interesting spot for a potential bullish reversal. Price is moving toward the lower channel shown in the video, and we also consider the possibility of a brief fake breakdown before a recovery. This aligns with the important volume profile anchored from the recent rollover date on November 25, 2025. We also examine what the RSI is telling us and offer guidance for technical traders, day traders, swing traders, and longer term gold investors.The video walks through where profit targets may unfold if a bullish reversal plays out, and at what point the bullish idea gives way to a bearish stage if price sustains below 4,210. You are invited to watch the full breakdown and also join our free investingLive Stocks Telegram channel for gold updates, crypto insights, stock trade ideas, and more: https://t.me/investingLiveStocks. For additional context, check out our previous gold futures analysis here: https://investinglive.com/commodities/is-gold-topping-out-or-simply-catching-its-breath-20251207/, which also includes a unique orderFlow Intel view showing that Friday’s reversal was bearish, but not dramatically so. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Indian Rupee Technical Analysis Today: USDINR Bounce From 110 to 110.5 Plays Out, What Comes Next for the Rupee Price PredictionINR Price Prediction via the Following Technical Analysis VideoIn today’s Indian Rupee technical analysis, we revisit the USDINR 4 hour chart after last week’s prediction. The Indian rupee futures moved exactly into our forecasted range and touched the trend line right on the tick. As expected, price reversed from the 110 to 110.5 support zone, giving us the bounce we highlighted ahead of time. However, the bulls are not out of the woods yet.What we are seeing so far may still be only a leg up inside a broader potential reversal structure, not a confirmed V style reversal. Bigger reversals usually take shape through a trading range, not a straight line recovery. At the moment, we appear to be inside the next leg down within that range structure, and we continue to track the same key levels between 110 and 110.5 on the Indian rupee USD futures.In the video below, I walk through the latest 4 hour price action, trend line structure, and what needs to happen next for a clearer directional move. Stay tuned with investingLive for ongoing rupee analysis, futures updates, and trade ideas across global markets.You are also welcome to join the free investingLive Stocks Telegram channel, where we share daily insights, trade leads, and market heads ups: https://t.me/investingLiveStocksTrade and invest in the rupee at your own risk. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Many traders and investors saw the seemingly aggressive bearish reversal for gold on Friday and are wondering if we have a double top. Perhaps a start of a major bearish reversal?Gold has been one of the most followed markets this quarter, and for two years now, actually, and many new traders are asking the same question. After several soft sessions and visible selling in early December, is gold starting a real reversal or is the market only taking a pause before deciding the next legThe observed pattern in Gold Futures (GC1!) is a Lower Double Top confirmed by Bearish RSI continuation (fading momentum continues) and an active test of the short-term trend line, price has crossed down the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This confluence of signals strongly suggests an impending bearish reversal on this 4-hour chart timeframe.However, this setup is a short-term warning, not yet a confirmation of a major trend reversal on a higher time frame. For a significant trend shift, a decisive break below on a higher timeframe is required, and crucially, this breakdown must be accompanied by meaningful trading volume (above-average volume). Without that high-volume confirmation, this pattern may only lead to a temporary pullback or consolidation before the broader, long-term trend reasserts itself. Furthermore, for a stronger sign that bears may be setting up a major bearish trend reversal (not the case yet) then we need 2 consecutive days closing below 4200 on gold futures.Beyond the above 4hr chart, this report goes much further, investigating what is happening with gold blends three powerful forms of analysis we use at investingLive:order flow IntelThe Commitments of Traders (COT) reportGLD implied move vs actual moveEach of these tools looks at the market from a different angle. When combined, they create a reliable decision support framework for traders who want to understand what may come next and what to look out for. This is especially helpful if you feel unsure about the recent selling pressure.1. What order flow Intel tells us todayMany new readers may not yet know what order flow Intel is. At investingLive we use order flow Intel as an advanced analysis methodology that reads the balance between aggressive buyers and aggressive sellers inside every futures session. It provides clarity beyond the candle chart by tracking delta, buy and sell volume, absorption zones, and whether large players are supporting or rejecting price.Current reading: Prediction Score of -3 This signals a mild bearish bias inside what still looks like a consolidation phase.Here is what the data shows:Strong bullish order flow on 28 NovemberFrom 1 to 4 December, consistent net sellingFrom 1 December to 5 December, price drifted only about 0.9 percent lowerThe selling is present, but price is not breaking down. That combination often develops in a sideways range rather than a strong trend reversal.For new traders, the meaning is simple.We are seeing some downside pressure, but there is no clear evidence that a major reversal has formed. For now, gold appears to be digesting recent gains.Later in the article we will show how tradeCompass helps traders navigate this type of environment, including partial profit techniques and protection against sudden reversals.2. What the COT report tells us about the bigger pictureThe COT report, short for Commitments of Traders, is a weekly publication by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It reveals how different groups of traders are positioned in the futures market.It is especially useful for new traders because it shows how the larger, more influential players are behaving.Here is what matters in the latest Gold COT report from 28 October 2025:Non commercials (hedge funds and trend followers) added nearly ten thousand long contracts and cut shortsThey now hold a strong net long positionCommercials (miners and refiners) remain net short but have reduced both long and short exposure, which often happens during rollover periodsThe large drop in total open interest is mostly from spread traders unwinding positions, not from bullish traders exiting the marketThis is not what a major top normally looks like. At major tops, funds usually cut longs aggressively and increase short exposure. Here we see the opposite.The medium term structure remains bullish. The market is cleaning up and rolling forward, but the core trend following group continues to support the bullish trend.This supports the idea that any short term weakness is still happening inside a broader uptrend structure.3. What the GLD options market tells us about risk and volatilityGLD, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, is widely traded and provides an accessible way to track gold price dynamics. One helpful tool for evaluating short term risk is the comparison between:Implied move: the expected daily range priced by optionsActual move: what GLD actually didThis helps traders understand whether a move is normal or unusual.Across the last 20 sessions:The average implied move was about 1.3 percentThe average actual move was about 0.8 percentMost days stayed inside the implied rangeOnly a few days broke outside itOnly one day showed a notable negative break (14 November)Now focus on Friday 5 December, the day of the latest selling:Implied move was about 0.9 percentActual move was only about negative 0.2 percentGLD stayed comfortably inside the expected rangeIf gold were starting a major reversal, we would expect:A larger than expected downside moveMultiple downside breaksExpanding volatility on the way downWe are not seeing any of those signals.The GLD options market agrees with order flow Intel and the COT report. There is selling, but not the type that usually marks the start of a large downtrend.4. How to use this information as a new traderThe value of blending these three tools is that it allows you to understand where the pressure is coming from and how strong it truly is. The combined message of all three methods is consistent:Gold is experiencing short term selling and downside consolidation, but there is no evidence of a major reversal at this stage.Here is how traders can approach this environment.Short term opportunities for gold traders and investorsorder flow Intel highlights intraday levels where bounces or short term reversals may occur. These levels help you identify potential long trades even inside a slightly bearish or sideways market.tradeCompass can guide you through how to manage these attempts. It shows where partial profits may be taken, how to protect your entry, and where to tighten risk if the move does not follow through.This is especially important in rangebound markets, because partial profits help reduce exposure while allowing the trade to continue if the market chooses to bounce.Medium term opportunities for gold traders and investorsThe COT report shows that the broader trend remains supported by non commercial traders. This helps new traders avoid assuming that every red day marks the start of a collapse.Range trading awarenessEven if the range is tilting slightly downward, tradeCompass can still help you spot locations where a tactical short can be taken after a rally into resistance or supply. Partial profit rules and clear stop placement protect you from sharp upside reversals that often occur in consolidating markets.5. Stay connected and follow the investingLive.com decision support & opportunitiesIf you enjoy this type of practical analysis, you are welcome to join the free investingLive Stocks Telegram channel, where we publish trade ideas during the week. Not only for gold, but also for stocks, NASDAQ indices, commodities, and more.Check out: https://t.me/investingLiveStocksYou will find concise setups, early heads up alerts, and educational explanations that help you grow as a trader while staying aligned with the larger market structure.So, what is the gold story telling us?Across order flow Intel, the COT report, and the GLD options market, the message is consistent. Gold is showing signs of selling and consolidation, but not a major reversal. Watch for how price behaves near support and resistance, look out to the gold tradeCompass on Monday or Tuesday, with your navigational trading map for partial profits and risk control, and stay flexible while the market continues to digest recent gains. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Mon: Chinese Trade Balance (Nov)Tue: RBA Announcement, EIA STEO, German Trade Balance (Oct), US JOLTS (Oct)Wed: FOMC Announcement, BoC Announcement, Chinese Inflation (Nov), Swedish GDP (Oct), Norwegian CPI (Nov), US Employment Cost Index (Q3)Thu: SNB Announcement, CBRT Announcement, OPEC MOMR, IEA OMR, Australian Jobs Report (Nov), Swedish CPIF (Nov)Fri: UK GDP (Oct), German/French/Spanish Final CPI (Nov)Chinese Trade Balance (Mon): Note, the data will encapsulate the first full period since the Trump-Xi meeting at the end of October, in which the sides agreed to extend their truce. The US decided to cut the "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods entering the US from 20% to 10%, while in return, China will start "the purchase of massive amounts of soybeans" and other farm products. Recently, US Trade Representative Greer emphasised Washington’s focus on maintaining “stability in the relationship” with Beijing, noting that President Trump has opted for restraint over escalation in trade measures despite pressure from allies for coordinated action. In October, exports unexpectedly fell 1.1% Y/Y, marking the first contraction in nearly two years, as US-bound shipments plunged 25%, according to CNBC. Imports rose just 1%. Analysts said front-loaded shipments ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting had distorted prior data. Analysts at ING, regarding the upcoming release, posit “While the trade truce and the US's tariff reductions should be a positive for Chinese exports, we are now entering a period of unfavourable base effects.” China's Commerce Minister on Friday said China will ramp up efforts to expand imports, via Xinhua.RBA Announcement (Tue): The RBA will decide on rates next week, with money markets assigning a 94% probability that the central bank will keep the Cash Rate at 3.60% and a 6% chance of a 25bps cut. The RBA left the Cash Rate unchanged at its November meeting, as expected, with a unanimous decision. It said inflation had recently picked up, and domestic economic activity was recovering, but the outlook remained uncertain. The board judged it appropriate to stay cautious and remained alert to heightened uncertainty in both directions. The RBA also released its Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, which showed it had sharply raised its core inflation forecasts through Q2 2026, with June 2026 Trimmed Mean inflation now seen at 3.2% (previously 2.6%) and June 2026 CPI at 3.7% (previously 3.1%). It added that recent data suggested more excess demand in the economy than previously thought, while its forecasts assumed a cash rate of 3.6% through end-2025, 3.4% in June 2026 and 3.3% thereafter. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said at the post-meeting press conference that the board had not considered rate cuts and that less easing might be needed this cycle than in the past. She said it was possible there would be no further cuts, and possible there would be some. She added that the board viewed policy as close to neutral, would proceed meeting by meeting, had no policy bias and believed it was in the right place for now. The central bank’s language signals continued uncertainty over future policy and a willingness to keep options open, with no urgency for an immediate adjustment. The tone aligns with comments from Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who said their best guess was that monetary policy remained restrictive and that the committee was debating this. He said it was not unreasonable to think future rate cuts could come and that the RBA would feel its way on the neutral rate, assessing how tight or loose policy was through macroeconomic data. Participants will therefore scrutinise the RBA’s language at the upcoming meeting for policy clues, especially as money markets currently price no further rate cuts and see the next move as more likely a hike, but not until the second half of next year.FOMC Announcement (Wed): Most economists expect the FOMC to cut its key interest rate by 25bps at its 10th December meeting to support a cooling labour market, despite widening divisions among policymakers, a Reuters poll showed. The view matches market pricing, which at the time of writing implied an 87% chance of a 25bps cut. The move would follow October’s reduction, although Chair Powell cautioned then that a December cut was far from assured given inflation risks. A prolonged government shutdown that delayed key data has added to uncertainty, and the October minutes signalled a sharply split Committee. Still, economists' calls for further reductions have been underpinned by backing from several Fed officials, including key remarks from NY Fed President Williams, who said a near-term cut could be appropriate. Newsquawk analysis indicates that among voting members, four have explicitly supported cuts (Bowman, Waller, Miran, Williams), one is seen leaning towards a cut (Cook), two have been unclear (Powell, Jefferson), while five are leaning towards a hold (Barr, Schmid, Collins, Musalem, Goolsbee). The divisions mean the meeting could produce the highest number of dissents since the early 1990s, with four or more opposing any reduction. Updated economic projections are also due; the Reuters poll points to a lack of consensus in the 2026 dot plot, with medians showing two further cuts but significant disagreement driven by fiscal risks, tariff effects and concerns over Fed independence. Conflicting policymaker signals have also heightened uncertainty. Analysts highlight that there is a wide gap between consumer and market inflation expectations, complicating the Fed’s task, and PCE inflation is expected to stay above 2% through 2027. The US economy likely grew 3.0% in Q3, slowing to 0.8% this quarter, and is forecast to average 2.0% in 2026, the poll found. Wells Fargo expects only minor adjustments to the 2026 outlook, with slightly higher GDP and unemployment and marginally lower inflation. It sees the 2026 median dot staying at 3.375%, although one lower dot could pull it down, with risks tilted slightly to the downside. Meanwhile, the 2026 rate outlook is further clouded by President Trump’s imminent choice for Fed chair (which is likely to come in early January). A strongly dovish pick such as NEC Director Kevin Hassett, who is closely aligned with Trump’s policy stance, would increase the likelihood of additional cuts in 2026. The FT reported that bond investors have warned the US Treasury that Hassett may prioritise Trump’s preferences and push for aggressive easing, raising the risk of higher inflation and a Treasury sell-off. Concerns focus on his perceived lack of independence, limited market focus and ability to manage a divided Fed, raising questions over credibility.BoC Announcement (Wed): The BoC is expected to maintain rates, with markets viewing the current 2.25% rate as the terminal rate. Since the last meeting, views on policy direction have been little swayed, as October data (jobs & CPI) were hotter-than-expected, as they were in September, and as such paved the way for the BoC to pause and await the impact of the recent easing. The BoC did point towards a hold in its last statement, "The current policy rate is at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment". Growth data since the October meeting has likely been welcomed by the BoC, with September GDP metrics matching expectations, while the Q3 reading annualised figure was notably above forecasts. Money markets are largely pricing in a hold at next week's meeting, almost fully pricing in such a decision. Looking into 2026, since the November jobs report, market pricing has shifted hawkish with 15bps of rate hikes now priced in following a notable drop in the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.9%. Before the data, some easing was still priced by mid-year, albeit this has completely reversed.Chinese Inflation (Wed): In the prior report, CPI rose 0.2% Y/Y in October, with the M/M also at 0.2%, and while Y/Y PPI printed -2.1%. The prior release showed factory-gate deflation easing and consumer prices turning positive for the first time in three months. ING expects CPI to edge higher to 0.5% Y/Y in November, driven by fading food price declines and modest gains in non-food prices, while PPI deflation is likely to narrow further. The desk continues to see inflationary pressures as subdued, with low but positive price growth viewed as key to preventing a deflationary mindset, and expects the PBoC to keep monetary policy steady, as marginal price improvements alone are unlikely to prompt immediate policy action.Norwegian CPI (Wed): Figures will likely have little impact on policy implications in the immediacy, given the Bank’s current rate path does not point towards a cut until Q2’26, with the first full rate cut indicated in Q4'26 (3.74%). As a reminder, the prior report saw headline Y/Y, and CPI-ATE printed hotter than the consensus and core Y/Y at 3.4% (exp. 3%, Norges Bank 3.2%). An outturn which played in favour of holding rates at the November meeting, whereby the Norges Bank said, “the job of tackling inflation has not been fully completed”.SNB Announcement (Thu): Expected to maintain the policy rate at 0.00%. While unlikely, the recent cooler-than-forecast inflation prints mean a move into negative rates cannot be ruled out. But, such a move is unlikely as the SNB still has room to guide policy via its forecasts and FX action. Furthermore, SNB officials have made clear that a return to NIRP is subject to a higher bar than a normal cut.CBRT Announcement (Thu): There are currently no expectations as to what the CBRT may opt to do at the upcoming meeting. At the prior meeting, the CBRT cut its headline rate by 100bps to 39.50% (exp. 39.50%, prev. 40.50%). The CBRT noted that while demand conditions remain consistent with disinflation, risks from food prices and inflation expectations have become more pronounced. The move follows a 250bps cut in September and a 300bps cut in July. Policymakers reiterated that future adjustments would depend on the inflation outlook and that policy may be tightened if deviations from interim targets occur. Economists broadly expect a continued but cautious easing bias into the year-end. The moderation in inflation has strengthened expectations for another rate cut, as the CBRT continues its easing cycle amid a slower economy. Recent data showed GDP growth of 3.7% Y/Y in Q3 (vs. 4.2% expected), suggesting momentum is cooling. Analysts cited by Bloomberg believe the central bank will interpret the slowdown as justification for further monetary easing, even as the lira remains under pressure.Australian Jobs Report (Thu): The October Employment Change printed at 42.2k, Participation rate at 67%, and Unemployment Rate at 4.3%. Westpac forecasts a more modest +20k gain in employment for November, noting that the jobs market is gradually cooling following strong growth in the care sector and a steady recovery in market industries. The bank expects the unemployment rate to rise slightly to 4.4%, consistent with a gradual uptrend in the three-month average. Youth unemployment has shown more volatility in recent months, often leading to broader labour softening. Overall, conditions remain solid but continue to normalise as the economy rebalances under restrictive policy settings.UK GDP (Fri): October’s GDP is expected to pick up to 0.2% M/M (prev. -0.1%). In short, the rebound is unlikely to have much bearing on the BoE’s deliberations around December. The recent inflation prints and downgraded growth assessment from the budget have likely cemented a cut, barring a shock in the November CPI release due on the eve of the December announcement. October’s PMIs were indicative of “sluggish” growth of around 0.1%, with firms cautious pre-budget. The growth outlook will come into more focus next year when the BoE gets closer to terminal, with deliberations on the MPC already as finely balanced as possible, evidenced by the tie-breaking role Governor Bailey took last time.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk. This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at investinglive.com.

Tech and consumer lead US stocks higher; Utilities and energy drag down marketThe US Federal Reserve rate decision the highlight next weekUS consumer credit for October $9.18 billion versus $10.50 billion estimateThe World Cup of foreign exchange beginsBaker Hughes oil rig count +6 to 413Most major European indices close lower and near lows for the dayTrump says he's getting along very well with Canada and MexicoBessent: China agreement is going wellG7 and EU in talks on full ban on Russian maritime servicesUSDINR Technicals: USDINR sellers took their shot, but missed. Buyers are back in control.US personal income for September 0.4% versus 0.3%. PCE for September 0.3% versus 0.3% expDecember prelim UMich consumer sentiment 53.3 vs 52.0 expectedTech sector rallies: semiconductor stocks soar, Netflix drags entertainment sector downECB's Villeroy: We are in a good position, not a comfortable oneCanadian dollar rises to ten-week high after the third strong jobs report in a rowCanadian November employment change +53.6K vs -5.0K expectedThe USD is mixed to start the NA session. What are the technicals telling traders?investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar steadies on calmer risk appetite, eyes on FedThe USD is closing mixed on the day with the USD moving the most vs the CAD after stronger Canada GDP data. The USDCAD fell by -0.93% and closed below its 100 and 200 day MAs above and below the 1.3900 level (see technical post here).The USD was also lower vs the AUD (by -0.44%). For that currency pair, it rose around 1.4% this week - the biggest mover for the week (see post here).The other changes vs the major currencies were more modest on the day:EUR: UnchangedGBP -0.01%CHF +0.11%NZD -0.23%As mentioned, Canada delivered a much stronger-than-expected November jobs report, posting a 53.6K employment gain versus a -5.0K decline expected, following +66.6K in October. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.5%, well below the 7.0% forecast, though partly helped by a dip in the participation rate to 65.1% from 65.3%. The composition was mixed: full-time employment fell by 9.4K, while part-time jobs surged by 63.0K, down from the prior month’s 85.1K. Wage growth for permanent employees held steady at 4.0% year-over-year. After months of conflicting signals — weak data in July/August followed by strong prints in September/October — this report delivers a decisive upside surprise, pushing joblessness sharply lower and contradicting expectations of labor-market cooling. With the Bank of Canada already signaling a pause, today’s data raises the possibility of renewed tightening discussions and may prove a game-changer for the Canadian dollar. The move below the 100/200 day moving averages increased the bearish bias.In the US, the U.S. personal income rose 0.4% in September, beating expectations of 0.3%, while personal consumption increased 0.3%, matching forecasts. Headline PCE inflation rose 0.3%, keeping the year-over-year rate at 2.8%, its highest level in a year. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, increased 0.2% on the month, with the YoY rate holding at 2.8%, slightly below the 2.9% expected. Excluding food, energy, and housing, PCE rose 0.2%, unchanged from last month. Overall spending climbed by $65.1 billion, driven overwhelmingly by a $63.0B increase in services and $2.1B in goods, showing that consumer demand remains steady even as inflation edges higher.The preliminary December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 53.3, beating expectations of 52.0 and improving sharply from 50.3 previously. The current conditions component softened slightly to 51.0 (vs. 51.3 expected and 52.3 prior), while expectations jumped to 52.1 (vs. 51.2 expected and 49.0 prior), signaling improving forward-looking sentiment. Inflation expectations eased meaningfully: one-year inflation fell to 4.1% from 4.7%, and five-year inflation slipped to 3.2% from 3.6%. While the UMich survey has known limitations, the Fed still monitors it closely, and the drop in inflation expectations represents a clear green light for potential rate cuts—a development equity markets typically welcome.Looking at the US stock market, the major indices moved mostly higher to end the week:Dow industrial average +0.22%S&P index +0.19%NASDAQ index +0.31%For the trading week:Dow industrial average but 0.50%S&P index +0.19%NASDAQ index +0.91%In the US debt market, yields were higher2-year yield 3.562%, +3.4 basis points5 year yield 3.714%, +3.2 basis points10 year yield 4.139%, +3.1 basis points30 year yield 4.794%, +3.1 basis pointsLooking at other markets:Crude oil rose $0.47 or 0.79% t $60.14Gold fell $10.46 or -0.25% to $4197.45Silver rose $1.19 for 2.10% to $58.29Bitcoin reversed back to the downside today with a decline of $-3084 to $89,022. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.